Search results for: geometric and topological data models

Authors: Yusuf S. Dambatta, Ahmed A. D. Sarhan

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Fused deposition modelling (FDM) is one of the most prominent rapid prototyping (RP) technologies which is being used to efficiently fabricate CAD 3D geometric models. However, the process is coupled with many drawbacks, of which the surface quality of the manufactured RP parts is among. Hence, studies relating to improving the surface roughness have been a key issue in the field of RP research. In this work, a technique of modelling the surface roughness in FDM is presented. Using experimentally measured surface roughness response of the FDM parts, an ANFIS prediction model was developed to obtain the surface roughness in the FDM parts using the main critical process parameters that affects the surface quality. The ANFIS model was validated and compared with experimental test results.

Keywords: surface roughness, fused deposition modelling (FDM), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), orientation

Procedia PDF Downloads 460

Authors: Sofia Stoica

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In this paper, we use historical data to predict the stock price of a tech company. To this end, we use a dataset consisting of the stock prices in the past five years of ten major tech companies – Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, Oracle, Salesforce, and Tesla. We experimented with a variety of models– a linear regressor model, K nearest Neighbors (KNN), a sequential neural network – and algorithms - Multiplicative Weight Update, and AdaBoost. We found that the sequential neural network performed the best, with a testing error of 0.18%. Interestingly, the linear model performed the second best with a testing error of 0.73%. These results show that using historical data is enough to obtain high accuracies, and a simple algorithm like linear regression has a performance similar to more sophisticated models while taking less time and resources to implement.

Keywords: finance, machine learning, opening price, stock market

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: M. A. Wanzala, L. A. Ogallo, F. J. Opijah, J. N. Mutemi

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The usefulness and limitations in climate information are due to uncertainty inherent in the climate system. For any given region to have sustainable development it is important to apply climate information into its socio-economic strategic plans. The overall objective of the study was to assess the performance of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) over the Lake Victoria Basin. The datasets used included the observed point station data, gridded rainfall data from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and hindcast data from eight CMIP5. The methodology included trend analysis, spatial analysis, correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) regression analysis, and categorical statistical skill score. Analysis of the trends in the observed rainfall records indicated an increase in rainfall variability both in space and time for all the seasons. The spatial patterns of the individual models output from the models of MPI, MIROC, EC-EARTH and CNRM were closest to the observed rainfall patterns.

Keywords: categorical statistics, coupled model inter-comparison project, principal component analysis, statistical downscaling

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Authors: E. Benga, T. Tengen, A. Alugongo

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Periodic and continuous inventory models are the two classical management tools used to handle inventories. These models have advantages and disadvantages. The implementation of both continuous (r,Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models in most manufacturing plants comes with higher cost. Such high inventory costs are due to the fact that most manufacturing plants are not flexible enough. Since demand and lead-time are two important variables of every inventory models, their effect on the flexibility of the manufacturing plant matter most. Unfortunately, these effects are not clearly understood by managers. The reason is that the decision parameters of the continuous (r, Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models are not designed to effectively deal with the issues of uncertainties such as poor manufacturing performances, delivery performance supplies performances. There is, therefore, a need to come up with a predictive and hybrid inventory model that can combine in some sense the feature of the aforementioned inventory models. A linear combination technique is used to hybridize both continuous (r, Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models. The behavior of such hybrid inventory model is described by a differential equation and then optimized. From the results obtained after simulation, the continuous (r, Q) inventory model is more effective than the periodic (R, S) inventory models in the short run, but this difference changes as time goes by. Because the hybrid inventory model is more cost effective than the continuous (r,Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models in long run, it should be implemented for strategic decisions.

Keywords: periodic inventory, continuous inventory, hybrid inventory, optimization, manufacturing plant

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Ahmed R. Abdelaziz, Zaki M. I. Osha

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Solar radiation data are of great significance for solar energy system design. This study aims at developing and calibrating new empirical models for estimating monthly mean daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface in Alexandria, Egypt. Day length hours, sun height, day number, and declination angle calculated data are used for this purpose. A comparison between measured and calculated values of solar radiation is carried out. It is shown that all the proposed correlations are able to predict the global solar radiation with excellent accuracy in Alexandria.

Keywords: solar energy, global solar radiation, model, regression coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 405

Authors: Dua Hişam, Serhat İkizoğlu

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Identifying the problem behind balance disorder is one of the most interesting topics in the medical literature. This study has considerably enhanced the development of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms applying multiple machine learning (ML) models to sensory data on gait collected from humans to classify between normal people and those suffering from Vestibular System (VS) problems. Although AI is widely utilized as a diagnostic tool in medicine, AI models have not been used to perform feature extraction and identify VS disorders through training on raw data. In this study, three machine learning (ML) models, the Random Forest Classifier (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), have been trained to detect VS disorder, and the performance comparison of the algorithms has been made using accuracy, recall, precision, and f1-score. With an accuracy of 95.28 %, Random Forest Classifier (RF) was the most accurate model.

Keywords: vestibular disorder, machine learning, random forest classifier, k-nearest neighbor, extreme gradient boosting

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Authors: Shamraiz Ahmad, Riaz Ahmad, Adnan Maqsood

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This paper describes the application of 2k-design of experiment in order to screen the geometric parameters and experimental refinement of ceiling fan blades. The ratio of the air delivery to the power consumed is commonly known as service value (SV) in ceiling fan designer’s community. Service value was considered as the response for 56 inch ceiling fan and four geometric parameters (bend position at root, bend position at tip, bent angle at root and bent angle at tip) of blade were analyzed. With two levels, the 4-design parameters along with their eleven interactions were studied and design of experiment was employed for experimental arrangement. Blade manufacturing and testing were done in a medium scale enterprise. The objective was achieved and service value of ceiling fan was increased by 10.4 % without increasing the cost of production and manufacturing system. Experiments were designed and results were analyzed using Minitab® 16 software package.

Keywords: parametric screening, 2k-design of experiment, ceiling fan, service value, performance improvement

Procedia PDF Downloads 564

Authors: C. Senabre, S. Valero, M. Lopez, E. Velasco, M. Sanchez

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This paper focuses on an application of linear mixed models to short-term load forecasting. The challenge of this research is to improve a currently working model at the Spanish Transport System Operator, programmed by us, and based on linear autoregressive techniques and neural networks. The forecasting system currently forecasts each of the regions within the Spanish grid separately, even though the behavior of the load in each region is affected by the same factors in a similar way. A load forecasting system has been verified in this work by using the real data from a utility. In this research it has been used an integration of several regions into a linear mixed model as starting point to obtain the information from other regions. Firstly, the systems to learn general behaviors present in all regions, and secondly, it is identified individual deviation in each regions. The technique can be especially useful when modeling the effect of special days with scarce information from the past. The three most relevant regions of the system have been used to test the model, focusing on special day and improving the performance of both currently working models used as benchmark. A range of comparisons with different forecasting models has been conducted. The forecasting results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, mixed effects models, neural networks, mixed effects models

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: A. M. Ahmed, Mona A. Darwish

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Removal of Ni++ ions from aqueous solution by sorption ontoNano-bentonite was investigated. Experiments were carried out as a function amount of Nano-bentonite, pH, concentration of metal, constant time, agitation speed and temperature. The adsorption parameter of metal ions followed the Langmuir Freundlich adsorption isotherm were applied to analyze adsorption data. The adsorption process has fit pseudo-second order kinetic models. Thermodynamics parameters e.g.ΔG*, ΔS °and ΔH ° of adsorption process have also been calculated and the sorption process was found to be endothermic. The adsorption process has fit pseudo-second order kinetic models. Langmuir and Freundich adsorption isotherm models were applied to analyze adsorption data and both were found to be applicable to the adsorption process. Thermodynamic parameters, e.g., ∆G °, ∆S ° and ∆H ° of the on-going adsorption process have also been calculated and the sorption process was found to be endothermic. Finally, it can be seen that Bentonite was found to be more effective for the removal of Ni (II) same with some experimental conditions.

Keywords: waste water, nickel, bentonite, adsorption

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Abeer Samy, Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano, Abdelazim Negm

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The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Keywords: Blue Nile Basin, climate change, hydrological modeling, watershed

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Authors: Ruchika Malhotra, Megha Khanna

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The development of change prediction models can help the software practitioners in planning testing and inspection resources at early phases of software development. However, a major challenge faced during the training process of any classification model is the imbalanced nature of the software quality data. A data with very few minority outcome categories leads to inefficient learning process and a classification model developed from the imbalanced data generally does not predict these minority categories correctly. Thus, for a given dataset, a minority of classes may be change prone whereas a majority of classes may be non-change prone. This study explores various alternatives for adeptly handling the imbalanced software quality data using different sampling methods and effective MetaCost learners. The study also analyzes and justifies the use of different performance metrics while dealing with the imbalanced data. In order to empirically validate different alternatives, the study uses change data from three application packages of open-source Android data set and evaluates the performance of six different machine learning techniques. The results of the study indicate extensive improvement in the performance of the classification models when using resampling method and robust performance measures.

Keywords: change proneness, empirical validation, imbalanced learning, machine learning techniques, object-oriented metrics

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Authors: Anita Setianingrum, Oki S. Jaya, Zuherman Rustam

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Forecasting stock price is a challenging task due to the complex time series of the data. The complexity arises from many variables that affect the stock market. Many time series models have been proposed before, but those previous models still have some problems: 1) put the subjectivity of choosing the technical indicators, and 2) rely upon some assumptions about the variables, so it is limited to be applied to all datasets. Therefore, this paper studied a novel Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) time series model based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for forecasting the stock market. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, stock market transaction data of TAIEX and HIS from January to December 2015 is collected as experimental datasets. As a result, the method has outperformed its counterparts in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: ANFIS, fuzzy time series, stock forecasting, SVR

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Authors: Larissa Pliska, Isabel Neitzel, Michael Buschermöhle, Olga Kunina-Habenicht, Ute Ritterfeld

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Visual preferences, which can be assessed using eye tracking technologies, are considered one of the defining hallmarks of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Specifically, children with ASD show a decreased preference for social images rather than geometric images compared to typically developed (TD) children. Such differences are already prevalent at a very early age and indicate the severity of the disorder: toddlers with ASD who preferred geometric images when confronted with social and geometric images showed higher ASD symptom severity than toddlers with ASD who showed higher social attention. Furthermore, the complexity of social pictures (one child playing vs. two children playing together) as well as the mode of stimulus presentation (video or image), are not decisive for the marker. The average age of diagnosis for ASD in Germany is 6.5 years, and visual preference data on this age group is missing. In the present study, we therefore investigated whether visual preferences persist into school age. We examined the visual preferences of 16 boys aged 6 to 11 with ASD and unimpaired cognition as well as TD children (1:1 matching based on children's age and the parent's level of education) within an experimental setting. Different stimulus presentation formats (images vs. videos) and different levels of stimulus complexity were included. Children with and without ASD received pairs of social and non-social images and video stimuli on a screen while eye movements (i.e., eye position and gaze direction) were recorded. For this specific use case, KIZMO GmbH developed a customized, native iOS app (KIZMO Face-Analyzer) for use on iPads. Neither the format of stimulus presentation nor the complexity of the social images had a significant effect on the visual preference of children with and without ASD in this study. Despite the tendency for a difference between the groups for the video stimuli, there were no significant differences. Overall, no statistical differences in visual preference occurred between boys with and without ASD, suggesting that gaze preference in these groups is similar at primary school age. One limitation is that the children with ASD were already receiving Autism-specific intervention. The potential of a visual preference task as an indicator of ASD can be emphasized. The article discusses the clinical relevance of this marker in elementary school children.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, eye tracking, hallmark, visual preference

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Authors: Syed Iftikhar Hussain Shah, Vasilis Peristeras, Ioannis Magnisalis

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Data that is high in volume, velocity, veracity and comes from a variety of sources is usually generated in all sectors including the government sector. Globally public administrations are pursuing (big) data as new technology and trying to adopt a data-centric architecture for hosting and sharing data. Properly executed, big data and data analytics in the government (big) data ecosystem can be led to data-driven government and have a direct impact on the way policymakers work and citizens interact with governments. In this research paper, we conduct a systematic literature review. The main aims of this paper are to highlight essential aspects of the government (big) data ecosystem and to explore the most critical socio-technical factors that contribute to the successful implementation of government (big) data ecosystem. The essential aspects of government (big) data ecosystem include definition, data types, data lifecycle models, and actors and their roles. We also discuss the potential impact of (big) data in public administration and gaps in the government data ecosystems literature. As this is a new topic, we did not find specific articles on government (big) data ecosystem and therefore focused our research on various relevant areas like humanitarian data, open government data, scientific research data, industry data, etc.

Keywords: applications of big data, big data, big data types. big data ecosystem, critical success factors, data-driven government, egovernment, gaps in data ecosystems, government (big) data, literature review, public administration, systematic review

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Authors: Gabrielle Robertson, Matthew Downs, Joseph Dagher

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Iron deposition in the brain has been linked with a host of neurological disorders such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and Multiple Sclerosis. While some treatment options exist, there are no objective measurement tools that allow for the monitoring of iron levels in the brain in vivo. An emerging Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) method has been recently proposed to deduce iron concentration through quantitative measurement of magnetic susceptibility. This is a multi-step process that involves repeated modeling of physical processes via approximate numerical solutions. For example, the last two steps of this Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping (QSM) method involve I) mapping magnetic field into magnetic susceptibility and II) mapping magnetic susceptibility into iron concentration. Process I involves solving an ill-posed inverse problem by using regularization via injection of prior belief. The end result from Process II highly depends on the model used to describe the molecular content of each voxel (type of iron, water fraction, etc.) Due to these factors, the accuracy and repeatability of QSM have been an active area of research in the MRI and medical imaging community. This work aims to estimate iron concentration in the brain via a single step. A synthetic numerical model of the human head was created by automatically and manually segmenting the human head on a high-resolution grid (640x640x640, 0.4mm³) yielding detailed structures such as microvasculature and subcortical regions as well as bone, soft tissue, Cerebral Spinal Fluid, sinuses, arteries, and eyes. Each segmented region was then assigned tissue properties such as relaxation rates, proton density, electromagnetic tissue properties and iron concentration. These tissue property values were randomly selected from a Probability Distribution Function derived from a thorough literature review. In addition to having unique tissue property values, different synthetic head realizations also possess unique structural geometry created by morphing the boundary regions of different areas within normal physical constraints. This model of the human brain is then used to create synthetic MRI measurements. This is repeated thousands of times, for different head shapes, volume, tissue properties and noise realizations. Collectively, this constitutes a training-set that is similar to in vivo data, but larger than datasets available from clinical measurements. This 3D convolutional U-Net neural network architecture was used to train data-driven Deep Learning models to solve for iron concentrations from raw MRI measurements. The performance was then tested on both synthetic data not used in training as well as real in vivo data. Results showed that the model trained on synthetic MRI measurements is able to directly learn iron concentrations in areas of interest more effectively than other existing QSM reconstruction methods. For comparison, models trained on random geometric shapes (as proposed in the Deep QSM method) are less effective than models trained on realistic synthetic head models. Such an accurate method for the quantitative measurement of iron deposits in the brain would be of important value in clinical studies aiming to understand the role of iron in neurological disease.

Keywords: magnetic resonance imaging, MRI, iron deposition, machine learning, quantitative susceptibility mapping

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Authors: Ahmed Fradi

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Nowadays, recent technological advances in the acquisition, modeling, and processing of three-dimensional (3D) objects data lead to the creation of models stored in huge databases, which are used in various domains such as computer vision, augmented reality, game industry, medicine, CAD (Computer-aided design), 3D printing etc. On the other hand, the industry is currently benefiting from powerful modeling tools enabling designers to easily and quickly produce 3D models. The great ease of acquisition and modeling of 3D objects make possible to create large 3D models databases, then, it becomes difficult to navigate them. Therefore, the indexing of 3D objects appears as a necessary and promising solution to manage this type of data, to extract model information, retrieve an existing model or calculate similarity between 3D objects. The objective of the proposed research is to develop a framework allowing easy and fast access to 3D objects in a CAD models database with specific indexing algorithm to find objects similar to a reference model. Our main objectives are to study existing methods of similarity calculation of 3D objects (essentially shape-based methods) by specifying the characteristics of each method as well as the difference between them, and then we will propose a new approach for indexing and comparing 3D models, which is suitable for our case study and which is based on some previously studied methods. Our proposed approach is finally illustrated by an implementation, and evaluated in a professional context.

Keywords: CAD, 3D object retrieval, shape based retrieval, similarity calculation

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Authors: Ananya Gangavarapu

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Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) based models are providing diagnostic capabilities on par with the medical specialists in many specialty areas. However, collecting the medical data for training purposes is very challenging because of the increased regulations around data collections and privacy concerns around personal health data. The gathering of the data becomes even more difficult if the capture devices are edge-based mobile devices (like smartphones) with feeble wireless connectivity in rural/remote areas. In this paper, I would like to highlight Federated Learning approach to mitigate data privacy and security issues.

Keywords: deep learning in healthcare, data privacy, federated learning, training in distributed environment

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Authors: Lucie Cote, Sonia McFadden

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Mental health problems in the workplace are currently one of the main causes of absences. Research work has highlighted the importance of a collaborative process involving the stakeholders in the return-to-work process and has established the best management practices to ensure a successful return-to-work. However, very few studies have specifically explored the combination of various management models and determined whether they could satisfy the needs of the stakeholders. The objective of this study is to analyze two models for managing the return to work: the ‘medical-administrative’ and the ‘support of the worker’ in order to understand the actions and actors involved in these models. The study also aims to explore whether these models meet the needs of the actors involved in the management of the return to work. A qualitative case study was conducted in a Canadian federal organization. An abundant internal documentation and semi-directed interviews with six managers, six workers and four human resources professionals involved in the management of records of employees returning to work after a mental health problem resulted in a complete picture of the return to work management practices used in this organization. The triangulation of this data facilitated the examination of the benefits and limitations of each approach. The results suggest that the actions of management for employee return to work from both models of management ‘support of the worker’ and ‘medical-administrative’ are compatible and can meet the needs of the actors involved in the return to work. More research is needed to develop a structured model integrating best practices of the two approaches to ensure the success of the return to work.

Keywords: return to work, mental health, management models, organizations

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Authors: Maryam Mohammadi, Mohammadjavad Mahdavinejad, Mojtaba Ansari

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The main driving force for increasing movement towards the design of High-Performance Buildings (HPB) are building codes and rating systems that address the various components of the building and their impact on the environment and energy conservation through various methods like prescriptive methods or simulation-based approaches. The methods and tools developed to meet these needs, which are often based on building performance simulation tools (BPST), have limitations in terms of compatibility with the integrated design process (IDP) and HPB design, as well as use by architects in the early stages of design (when the most important decisions are made). To overcome these limitations in recent years, efforts have been made to develop Design Decision Support Systems, which are often based on artificial intelligence. Numerous needs and steps for designing and developing a Decision Support System (DSS), which complies with the early stages of energy-efficient architecture design -consisting of combinations of different methods in an integrated package- have been listed in the literature. While various review studies have been conducted in connection with each of these techniques (such as optimizations, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, etc.) and their integration of them with specific targets; this article is a critical and holistic review of the researches which leads to the development of applicable systems or introduction of a comprehensive framework for developing models complies with the IDP. Information resources such as Science Direct and Google Scholar are searched using specific keywords and the results are divided into two main categories: Simulation-based DSSs and Meta-simulation-based DSSs. The strengths and limitations of different models are highlighted, two general conceptual models are introduced for each category and the degree of compliance of these models with the IDP Framework is discussed. The research shows movement towards Multi-Level of Development (MOD) models, well combined with early stages of integrated design (schematic design stage and design development stage), which are heuristic, hybrid and Meta-simulation-based, relies on Big-real Data (like Building Energy Management Systems Data or Web data). Obtaining, using and combining of these data with simulation data to create models with higher uncertainty, more dynamic and more sensitive to context and culture models, as well as models that can generate economy-energy-efficient design scenarios using local data (to be more harmonized with circular economy principles), are important research areas in this field. The results of this study are a roadmap for researchers and developers of these tools.

Keywords: integrated design process, design decision support system, meta-simulation based, early stage, big data, energy efficiency

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Authors: The Danh Phan

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House price forecasting is a main topic in the real estate market research. Effective house price prediction models could not only allow home buyers and real estate agents to make better data-driven decisions but may also be beneficial for the property policymaking process. This study investigates the housing market by using machine learning techniques to analyze real historical house sale transactions in Australia. It seeks useful models which could be deployed as an application for house buyers and sellers. Data analytics show a high discrepancy between the house price in the most expensive suburbs and the most affordable suburbs in the city of Melbourne. In addition, experiments demonstrate that the combination of Stepwise and Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the Mean Squared Error (MSE) measurement, consistently outperforms other models in terms of prediction accuracy.

Keywords: house price prediction, regression trees, neural network, support vector machine, stepwise

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Authors: Fares Hedayatit, Arnauld Joly, Panagiotis Papadimitriou

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Many machine learning tasks such as text annotation usually require training over very big datasets, e.g., millions of web documents, that can be represented in a sparse input space. State-of the-art tree-based ensemble algorithms cannot scale to such datasets, since they include operations whose running time is a function of the input space size rather than a function of the non-zero input elements. In this paper, we propose an efficient splitting algorithm to leverage input sparsity within decision tree methods. Our algorithm improves training time over sparse datasets by more than two orders of magnitude and it has been incorporated in the current version of scikit-learn.org, the most popular open source Python machine learning library.

Keywords: big data, sparsely representable data, tree-based models, scalable learning

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Authors: Omid Shahmirzadi, Adam Lugowski, Kenneth Younge

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Automatic measurement of semantic text similarity is an important task in natural language processing. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of different vector space models to perform this task. We address the real-world problem of modeling patent-to-patent similarity and compare TFIDF (and related extensions), topic models (e.g., latent semantic indexing), and neural models (e.g., paragraph vectors). Contrary to expectations, the added computational cost of text embedding methods is justified only when: 1) the target text is condensed; and 2) the similarity comparison is trivial. Otherwise, TFIDF performs surprisingly well in other cases: in particular for longer and more technical texts or for making finer-grained distinctions between nearest neighbors. Unexpectedly, extensions to the TFIDF method, such as adding noun phrases or calculating term weights incrementally, were not helpful in our context.

Keywords: big data, patent, text embedding, text similarity, vector space model

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Authors: Nasim Eslamirad, Mahdi Rasoulinezhad, Francesco De Luca, Sadok Ben Yahia, Kimmo Sakari Lylykangas, Francesco Pilla

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With the ongoing urbanization, cities face increasing environmental challenges impacting human well-being. To tackle these issues, data-driven approaches in urban analysis have gained prominence, leveraging urban data to promote sustainability. Integrating Machine Learning techniques enables researchers to analyze and predict complex environmental phenomena like Urban Heat Island occurrences in urban areas. This paper demonstrates the implementation of data-driven approach and interpretable Machine Learning algorithms with interpretability techniques to conduct comprehensive data analyses for sustainable urban design. The developed framework and algorithms are demonstrated for Tallinn, Estonia to develop sustainable urban strategies to mitigate urban heat waves. Geospatial data, preprocessed and labeled with UHI levels, are used to train various ML models, with Logistic Regression emerging as the best-performing model based on evaluation metrics to derive a mathematical equation representing the area with UHI or without UHI effects, providing insights into UHI occurrences based on buildings and urban features. The derived formula highlights the importance of building volume, height, area, and shape length to create an urban environment with UHI impact. The data-driven approach and derived equation inform mitigation strategies and sustainable urban development in Tallinn and offer valuable guidance for other locations with varying climates.

Keywords: data-driven approach, machine learning transparent models, interpretable machine learning models, urban heat island effect

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Authors: Richard Fairchild, Abdullah Al-Ghazali, Yilmaz Guney

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This study analyses the relationship between managerial overconfidence, dividends, and firm value by developing theoretical models that examine the condition under which managerial overconfident, dividends, and firm value may be positive or negative. Furthermore, the models incorporate moral hazard, in terms of managerial effort shirking, and the potential for the manager to choose negative NPV projects, due to private benefits. Our models demonstrate that overconfidence can lead to higher dividends (when the manager is overconfident about his current ability) or lower dividends (when the manager is overconfident about his future ability). The models also demonstrate that higher overconfidence may result in an increase or a decrease in firm value. Numerical examples are illustrated for both models which interestingly support the models’ propositions.

Keywords: behavioural corporate finance, dividend policy, overconfidence, moral hazard

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Authors: Mina Adel Shokry Fahim, Jūratė Sužiedelytė Visockienė

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With the growing concern over air pollution (AP), it is clear that this has gained more prominence than ever before. The level of consciousness has increased and a sense of knowledge now has to be forwarded as a duty by those enlightened enough to disseminate it to others. This realisation often comes after an understanding of how poor air quality indices (AQI) damage human health. The study focuses on assessing air pollution prediction models specifically for Lithuania, addressing a substantial need for empirical research within the region. Concentrating on Vilnius, it specifically examines particulate matter concentrations 10 micrometers or less in diameter (PM10). Utilizing Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Regression Tree Ensemble, and Regression Tree methodologies, predictive forecasting models are validated and tested using hourly data from January 2020 to December 2022. The study explores the classification of AP data into anthropogenic and natural sources, the impact of AP on human health, and its connection to cardiovascular diseases. The study revealed varying levels of accuracy among the models, with GPR achieving the highest accuracy, indicated by an RMSE of 4.14 in validation and 3.89 in testing.

Keywords: air pollution, anthropogenic and natural sources, machine learning, Gaussian process regression, tree ensemble, forecasting models, particulate matter

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Authors: Md. Abud Darda

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Different options for natural gas production in wide geographic areas may be described through diffusion of innovation models. This type of modeling approach provides an indirect estimate of an ultimately recoverable resource, URR, capture the quantitative effects of observed strategic interventions, and allow ex-ante assessments of future scenarios over time. In order to ensure a sustainable energy policy, it is important to forecast the availability of this natural resource. Considering a finite life cycle, in this paper we try to investigate the natural gas production of Myanmar and Algeria, two important natural gas provider in the world energy market. A number of homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models, with convenient extensions, have been used. Models validation has also been performed in terms of prediction capability.

Keywords: diffusion models, energy forecast, natural gas, nonlinear production

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Authors: Mikel Alonso López

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In order to begin the process of studying the task of making consumer decisions, the main decision models must be analyzed. The objective of this task is to see if there is a presence of emotions in those models, and analyze how authors that have created them consider their impact in consumer choices. In this paper, the most important models of consumer behavior are analysed. This review is useful to consider an unproblematic background knowledge in the literature. The order that has been established for this study is chronological.

Keywords: consumer behaviour, emotions, decision making, consumer psychology

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Authors: Michael Gidey Gebru

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Most of Data Envelopment Analysis models operate in a static environment with input and output parameters that are chosen by deterministic data. However, due to ambiguity brought on shifting market conditions, input and output data are not always precisely gathered in real-world scenarios. Fuzzy numbers can be used to address this kind of ambiguity in input and output data. Therefore, this work aims to expand crisp Data Envelopment Analysis into Data Envelopment Analysis with fuzzy environment. In this study, the input and output data are regarded as fuzzy triangular numbers. Then, the Data Envelopment Analysis model with fuzzy environment is solved using a multi-objective method to gauge the Decision Making Units' efficiency. Finally, the developed Data Envelopment Analysis model is illustrated with an application on real data 50 educational institutions.

Keywords: efficiency, Data Envelopment Analysis, fuzzy, higher education, input, output

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Authors: Yamileth P. Herrera, Ronald R. Gutierrez, Carlos, Pacheco-Bustos

Abstract:

This research aims at the numerical modeling of a rectangular contact tank in order to improve the hydrodynamic behavior and the retention time of the water to be treated with the disinfecting agent. The methodology to be followed includes a hydraulic analysis of the tank to observe the fluid velocities, which will allow evidence of low-speed areas that may generate pathogenic agent incubation or high-velocity areas, which may decrease the optimal contact time between the disinfecting agent and the microorganisms to be eliminated. Based on the results of the numerical model, the efficiency of the tank under the geometric and hydraulic conditions considered will be analyzed. This would allow the performance of the tank to be improved before starting a construction process, thus avoiding unnecessary costs.

Keywords: contact tank, numerical models, hydrodynamic modeling, residence time

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Authors: Isaac Mugume

Abstract:

Since the beginning of the 21st century, climate change has been an issue due to the reported rise in global temperature and changes in the frequency as well as severity of extreme weather and climatic events. The changing climate has been attributed to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, including environmental changes such as ecosystems and land-uses. Climatic projections have been carried out under the auspices of the intergovernmental panel on climate change where a couple of models have been run to inform us about the likelihood of future climates. Since one of the major forcings informing the changing climate is emission of greenhouse gases, different scenarios have been proposed and future climates for different periods presented. The global climate models project different areas to experience different impacts. While regional modeling is being carried out for high impact studies, bias correction is less documented. Yet, the regional climate models suffer bias which introduces uncertainty. This is addressed in this study by bias correcting the regional models. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model under different representative concentration pathways and correcting the products of these models using observed climatic data. This study notes that bias correction (e.g., the running-mean bias correction; the best easy systematic estimator method; the simple linear regression method, nearest neighborhood, weighted mean) improves the climatic projection skill and therefore reduce the uncertainty inherent in the climatic projections.

Keywords: bias correction, climatic projections, numerical models, representative concentration pathways

Procedia PDF Downloads 119