Search results for: flood risk assessment and recovery

Authors: Xiaoting Shi, Xiaomei Ma

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In higher education, students' self-assessment and peer assessment of compositions in writing classes can effectively improve their ability of evaluative judgment. However, students' self-assessment and peer assessment are not advocated by most teachers because of the significant difference in scoring compared with teacher assessment. This study used a multi-faceted Rasch model to explore whether an English writing checklist containing 30 descriptors can effectively improve rating consistency among self-assessment, peer assessment and teacher assessment. Meanwhile, a questionnaire was adopted to survey students’ and teachers’ attitudes toward self-assessment and peer assessment using the writing checklist. Results of the multi-faceted Rasch model analysis show that the writing checklist can effectively distinguish the students’ writing ability (separate coefficient = 2.05, separate reliability = 0.81, chi-square value (df = 32) = 123.4). Moreover, the results revealed that the checklist could improve rating consistency among self-assessment, peer assessment and teacher assessment. (separate coefficient = 1.71, separate reliability = 0.75, chi-square value (df=4) = 20.8). The results of the questionnaire showed that more than 85% of students and all teachers believed that the checklist had a good advantage in self-assessment and peer assessment, and they were willing to use the checklist to conduct self-assessment and peer assessment in class in the future.

Keywords: english writing, self-assessment, peer assessment, writing checklist

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Authors: Shafiqul Islam, Cordia Chu

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Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate related disasters such as flood and cyclone. Exploring from the semi-structured in-depth interviews of 38 stakeholders and literature review, this study examined the public spending distribution process in DRR. This paper demonstrates how the processes of political economy-enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment hinder the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) efforts of Department of Disaster Management (DDM) such as distribution of flood centres, cyclone centres and 40 days employment generation programs. Enclosure refers to when DRR projects allocated to less vulnerable areas or expand the roles of influencing actors into the public sphere. Exclusion refers to when DRR projects limit affected people’s access to resources or marginalize particular stakeholders in decision-making activities. Encroachment refers to when allocation of DRR projects and selection of location and issues degrade the environmental affect or contribute to other forms of disaster risk. Entrenchment refers to when DRR projects aggravate the disempowerment of common people worsen the concentrations of wealth and income inequality within a community. In line with United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Hyogo and Sendai Frameworks, in the case of Bangladesh, DRR policies implemented under the country’s national five-year plan, disaster-related acts and rules. These policies and practices have somehow enabled influential-elites to mobilize and distribute resources through bureaucracies. Exclusionary forms of fund distribution of DRR exist at both the national and local scales. DRR related allocations have encroached through the low land areas development project without consulting local needs. Most severely, DRR related unequal allocations have entrenched social class trapping the backward communities vulnerable to climate related disasters. Planners and practitioners of DRR need to take necessary steps to eliminate the potential risks from the processes of enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment happens in project fund allocations.

Keywords: Bangladesh, disaster risk reduction, fund distribution, political economy

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Md. Refat Jahan Rakiba, M. Belal Hossaina, Rakesh Kumarc, Md. Akram Ullaha, Sultan Al Nahiand, Nazmun Naher Rimaa, Tasrina Rabia Choudhury, Samia Islam Libaf, Jimmy Yub, Mayeen Uddin Khandakerg, Abdelmoneim Suliemanh, Mohamed Mahmoud Sayedi

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Microplastics (MPs) have become an emerging global pollutant due to their wide spread and dispersion and potential threats to marine ecosystems. However, studies on MPs of estuarine and coastal ecosystems of Bangladesh are very limited or not available. In this study, we conducted the first study on the abundance, distribution, characteristics and potential risk assessment of microplastics in the sediment of Karnaphuli River estuary, Bangladesh. Microplastic particles were extracted from sediments of 30 stations along the estuary by density separation, and then enumerated and characterize by using steromicroscope and Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy. In the collected sediment, the number of MPs varied from 22.29 - 59.5 items kg−1 of dry weight (DW) with an average of 1177 particles kg−1 DW. The mean abundance was higher in the downstream and left bank of estuary where the predominant shape, colour, and size of MPs were films (35%), white (19%), and >5000 μm (19%), respectively. The main polymer types were polyethylene terephthalate, polystyrene, polyethylene, cellulose, and nylon. MPs were found to pose risks (low to high) in the sediment of the estuary, with the highest risk occuring at one station near a sewage outlet, according to the results of risk analyses using the pollution risk index (PRI), polymer risk index (H), contamination factors (CFs), and pollution load index (PLI). The single value index, PLI clearly demonastated that all sampling sites were considerably polluted (as PLI >1) with microplastics. H values showed toxic polymers even in lower proportions possess higher polymeric hazard scores and vice versa. This investigation uncovered new insights on the status of MPs in the sediments of Karnaphuli River estuary, laying the groundwork for future research and control of microplastic pollution and management.

Keywords: microplastics, polymers, pollution risk assessment, Karnaphuli esttuary

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Authors: Sudha Arlikatti, Laura Siebeneck, Simon A. Andrew

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The objective of this research is to measure organizational resiliency through five attributes namely, rapidity, redundancy, resourcefulness, and robustness and to provide recommendations for resiliency building in flood risk communities. The research was conducted in Thailand following the severe floods of 2011 triggered by Tropical Storm Nock-ten. The floods lasted over eight months starting in June 2011 affecting 65 of the country’s 76 provinces and over 12 million people. Funding from a US National Science Foundation grant was used to collect ephemeral data in rural (Ayutthaya), suburban (Pathum Thani), and urban (Bangkok) provinces of Thailand. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted in Thai with 44 contacts from public, private, and non-profit organizations including universities, schools, automobile companies, vendors, tourist agencies, monks from temples, faith based organizations, and government agencies. Multiple triangulations were used to analyze the data by identifying selective themes from the qualitative data, validated with quantitative data and news media reports. This helped to obtain a more comprehensive view of how organizations in different geographic settings varied in their understanding of what enhanced or hindered their resilience and consequently their speed and capacities to respond. The findings suggest that the urban province of Bangkok scored highest in resourcefulness, rapidity of response, robustness, and ability to rebound. This is not surprising considering that it is the country’s capital and the seat of government, economic, military and tourism sectors. However, contrary to expectations all 44 respondents noted that the rural province of Ayutthaya was the fastest to recover amongst the three. Its organizations scored high on redundancy and rapidity of response due to the strength of social networks, a flood disaster sub-culture due to annual flooding, and the help provided by monks from and faith based organizations. Organizations in the suburban community of Pathum Thani scored lowest on rapidity of response and resourcefulness due to limited and ambiguous warnings, lack of prior flood experience and controversies that government flood protection works like sandbagging favored the capital city of Bangkok over them. Such a micro-level examination of organizational resilience in rural, suburban and urban areas in a country through mixed methods studies has its merits in getting a nuanced understanding of the importance of disaster subcultures and religious norms for resilience. This can help refocus attention on the strengths of social networks and social capital, for flood mitigation.

Keywords: disaster subculture, flood response, organizational resilience, Thailand floods, religious beliefs and response, social capital and disasters

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Authors: Meet Bhatia

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Well stimulation and heavy oil recovery continue to be a hot topic in our industry, particularly with formation damage and viscous oil respectively. Cyclic steam injection has been recognised for most of the operations related to heavy oil recovery. However, the cost of implementation is high and operation is time-consuming, moreover most of the viscous oil reservoirs such as oil sands, Bitumen deposits and oil shales require additional treatment of well stimulation. The use of hydrogen peroxide can efficiently replace the cyclic steam injection process as it can be used for both well stimulation and heavy oil recovery simultaneously. The decomposition of Hydrogen peroxide produces oxygen, superheated steam and heat. The increase in temperature causes clays to shrink, destroy carbonates and remove emulsion thus it can efficiently remove the near wellbore damage. The paper includes mechanisms, parameters to be considered and the challenges during the treatment for the effective hydrogen peroxide injection for both conventional and heavy oil reservoirs.

Keywords: hydrogen peroxide, well stimulation, heavy oil recovery, steam injection

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Authors: Vimi Jham

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The banking sector has undergone tremendous change in all forms of service it provides to its customers. The efforts of the banks is to avoid customer defection and lead to customer satisfaction. The purpose of the study was to examine the linkages among the constructs such as customer perceived service quality, perceived service recovery quality and customer satisfaction in the banking industry. The moderating effect of negative brand perception due to service failure on recovery satisfaction were investigated. Random sampling methods are used to draw the sample from the population. Data was collected from 262 banking customers and were analyzed with the help of structural equation modelling approach using Smart PLS to understand the relationship among variables being studied. The results of the study contribute to the research by proving that customer service recovery satisfaction is dependent on customer perceived service quality and the moderating effect of negative brand perception due to service failure was insignificant.

Keywords: service recovery satisfaction, perceived service recovery quality, perceived service quality, structural equation modelling

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Authors: S. U. Kunya, S. A. Mohammad

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Construction projects in Nigeria are characterized with risks emanating from delays and accompanying cost-overruns. The aim of the study was to identify and assess factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies in the execution of public construction project in North-East Nigeria. Data was collected with the aid of a well-structured questionnaire administered to three identified projects in the North-east. Data collected were analysed using the severity index. Findings revealed political involvement, selection of inexperienced contractors and lack of coordinated public sector strategy as the most severe factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies. The study recommended that: formulation of laws to prevent negative political meddling in construction projects; selection of experienced, risk-informed contractors; and comprehensive risk assessment and planning on all public construction projects.

Keywords: factors, Nigeria, north-east, public projects, risk management, strategies, utilization

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal, Jake Ansell

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Austerity impacts on all aspects of society. Companies into the future will have to be more capable of dealing with the risks they face. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has widely been accepted in recent years as an approach to manage risks within businesses. ERM attempts to tackle risk holistically with gains from opportunities in a managing risk and reduction in the risk of failure. The paper reviews merits and demerits of approaches to risk management in regard to antifragility. A qualitative study has investigated current practices and the problems with ERM implementation by interviewing over 25 chief risk officers and senior management. The findings indicate the gap in ERM description, understanding, and implementation. The paper suggests risk learning and expertise knowledge supports development of effective enterprise risk management by designing systems with inherent resilience.

Keywords: risk management, interviews, antifragility, failure

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Authors: Jeerasak Wisatphan, Nara Samattapapong

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This study's goals were to enhance nitroglycerin manufacturing efficiency through simulation, recover nitroglycerin from the storage facility, and enhance nitroglycerine recovery and purge systems. It was found that the problem was nitroglycerin reflux. Therefore, the researcher created three alternatives to solve the problem. The system of Nitroglycerine Recovery and Purge was then simulated using the FlexSim program, and each alternative was tested. The results demonstrate that the alternative system-led Nitroglycerine Recovery and Nitroglycerine Purge System collaborate to produce Nitroglycerine, which is more efficient than other alternatives and can reduce production time. It can also improve the recovery of nitroglycerin. It also serves as a guideline for developing a real-world system and modeling it for training staff without wasting raw chemical materials or fuel energy.

Keywords: efficiency increase, nitroglycerine recovery and purge system, production improvement, simulation

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Authors: Belagoune Fares, Boutoutaou Djamel

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The study on floods in Algeria established by the National Agency of Water Resources (ANRH) shows that the country is confronted with the phenomenon of very destructive floods and floods especially in arid and semiarid regions. Flooding of rivers in these areas is less known. They are characterized by their sudden duration (rain showers, thunderstorm).The duration of the flood is of the order of minutes to hours. The human and material damage caused by these floods were still high. The study area encompasses three watersheds in semi-arid and arid south and Algeria. THERE are pools of Chott-Melghir (68,751 km2), highland Constantine-07 (9578 km2) and El Hodna-05 basin (25,843 km2). The total area of this zone is about 104,500km2.Studies of protection against floods and design studies of hydraulic structures (spillway, storm basin, etc.) require the raw data which is often unknown in several places particularly at ungauged wadis of these areas. This makes it very difficult to schedules and managers working in the field of hydraulic studies. The objective of this study and propose a methodology for determining flows in the absence of observations in the semi-arid and arid south eastern Algeria. The objective of the study is to propose a methodology for these areas of flood calculation for ungauged rivers.

Keywords: flood, watershed, specific flow, coefficient of variation, arid

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Authors: Zidane Abderrezzaq

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In contrast to recent successful developments in macro monetary policies, the modelling, measurement and management of systemic financial stability has remained problematical. Indeed, the focus of most effort has been on improving individual, rather than systemic, bank risk management; the Basel II objective has been to bring regulatory bank capital into line with the (sophisticated) banks’ assessment of their own economic capital. Even at the individual bank level there are concerns over appropriate diversification allowances, differing objectives of banks and regulators, the need for a buffer over regulatory minima, and the distinction between expected and unexpected losses (EL and UL). At the systemic level the quite complex and prescriptive content of Basel II raises dangers of ‘endogenous risk’ and procyclicality. Simulations suggest that this latter could be a serious problem. In an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tiering) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out.

Keywords: systemic stability, financial regulation, credit risk, systemic risk

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Authors: Essam Gooda, Chadi Abdallah, Hamdi Seif, Safaa Baydoun, Rouya Hdeib, Hilal Obeid

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Floods are common natural disaster occurring in semi-arid regions in Lebanon. This results in damage to human life and deterioration of environment. Despite their destructive nature and their immense impact on the socio-economy of the region, flash floods have not received adequate attention from policy and decision makers. This is mainly because of poor understanding of the processes involved and measures needed to manage the problem. The current understanding of flash floods remains at the level of general concepts; most policy makers have yet to recognize that flash floods are distinctly different from normal riverine floods in term of causes, propagation, intensity, impacts, predictability, and management. Flash floods are generally not investigated as a separate class of event but are rather reported as part of the overall seasonal flood situation. As a result, Lebanon generally lacks policies, strategies, and plans relating specifically to flash floods. Main objective of this research is to improve flash flood prediction by providing new knowledge and better understanding of the hydrological processes governing flash floods in the East Catchments of El Assi River. This includes developing rainstorm time distribution curves that are unique for this type of study region; analyzing, investigating, and developing a relationship between arid watershed characteristics (including urbanization) and nearby villages flow flood frequency in Ras Baalbeck and Fekha. This paper discusses different levels of integration approach¬es between GIS and hydrological models (HEC-HMS & HEC-RAS) and presents a case study, in which all the tasks of creating model input, editing data, running the model, and displaying output results. The study area corresponds to the East Basin (Ras Baalbeck & Fakeha), comprising nearly 350 km2 and situated in the Bekaa Valley of Lebanon. The case study presented in this paper has a database which is derived from Lebanese Army topographic maps for this region. Using ArcMap to digitizing the contour lines, streams & other features from the topographic maps. The digital elevation model grid (DEM) is derived for the study area. The next steps in this research are to incorporate rainfall time series data from Arseal, Fekha and Deir El Ahmar stations to build a hydrologic data model within a GIS environment and to combine ArcGIS/ArcMap, HEC-HMS & HEC-RAS models, in order to produce a spatial-temporal model for floodplain analysis at a regional scale. In this study, HEC-HMS and SCS methods were chosen to build the hydrologic model of the watershed. The model then calibrated using flood event that occurred between 7th & 9th of May 2014 which considered exceptionally extreme because of the length of time the flows lasted (15 hours) and the fact that it covered both the watershed of Aarsal and Ras Baalbeck. The strongest reported flood in recent times lasted for only 7 hours covering only one watershed. The calibrated hydrologic model is then used to build the hydraulic model & assessing of flood hazards maps for the region. HEC-RAS Model is used in this issue & field trips were done for the catchments in order to calibrated both Hydrologic and Hydraulic models. The presented models are a kind of flexible procedures for an ungaged watershed. For some storm events it delivers good results, while for others, no parameter vectors can be found. In order to have a general methodology based on these ideas, further calibration and compromising of results on the dependence of many flood events parameters and catchment properties is required.

Keywords: flood risk management, flash flood, semi arid region, El Assi River, hazard maps

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Authors: Bill D. Geis

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Suicide wrongful death forensic cases are the fastest rising tort in mental health law. It is estimated that suicide-related cases have accounted for 15% of U.S. malpractice claims since 2006. Most suicide-related personal injury claims fall into the legal category of “wrongful death.” Though mental health experts may be called on to address a range of forensic questions in wrongful death cases, the central consultation that most experts provide is about the negligence element—specifically, the issue of whether the clinician met the clinical standard of care in assessing, treating, and managing the deceased person’s mental health care. Standards of care, varying from U.S. state to state, are broad and address what a reasonable clinician might do in a similar circumstance. This fact leaves the issue of the suicide standard of care, in each case, up to forensic experts to put forth a reasoned estimate of what the standard of care should have been in the specific case under litigation. Because the general state guidelines for standard of care are broad, forensic experts are readily retained to provide scientific and clinical opinions about whether or not a clinician met the standard of care in their suicide assessment, treatment, and management of the case. In the past and in much of current practice, the assessment of suicide has centered on the elicitation of verbalized suicide ideation. Research in recent years, however, has indicated that the majority of persons who end their lives do not say they are suicidal at their last medical or psychiatric contact. Near-term risk assessment—that goes beyond verbalized suicide ideation—is needed. Our previous research employed structural equation modeling to predict lethal suicide risk--eight negative thought patterns (feeling like a burden on others, hopelessness, self-hatred, etc.) mediated by nine transdiagnostic clinical factors (mental torment, insomnia, substance abuse, PTSD intrusions, etc.) were combined to predict acute lethal suicide risk. This structural equation model, the Lethal Suicide Risk Pattern (LSRP), Acute model, had excellent goodness-of-fit [χ2(df) = 94.25(47)***, CFI = .98, RMSEA = .05, .90CI = .03-.06, p(RMSEA = .05) = .63. AIC = 340.25, ***p < .001.]. A further SEQ analysis was completed for this paper, adding a measure of Acute Suicide Ideation to the previous SEQ. Acceptable prediction model fit was no longer achieved [χ2(df) = 3.571, CFI > .953, RMSEA = .075, .90% CI = .065-.085, AIC = 529.550].This finding suggests that, in this additional study, immediate verbalized suicide ideation information was unhelpful in the assessment of lethal risk. The LSRP and other dynamic, near-term risk models (such as the Acute Suicide Affective Disorder Model and the Suicide Crisis Syndrome Model)—going beyond elicited suicide ideation—need to be incorporated into current clinical suicide assessment training. Without this training, the standard of care for suicide assessment is out of sync with current research—an emerging dilemma for the forensic evaluation of suicide wrongful death cases.

Keywords: forensic evaluation, standard of care, suicide, suicide assessment, wrongful death

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Authors: Eftah Bte. Moh Hj Abdullah, Izazol Binti Idris, Abd Aziz Bin Abd Shukor

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This study aims to identify the understanding expectations of school administrators concerning school assessment. The researcher utilized a qualitative descriptive study on 19 administrators from three secondary schools in the North Kinta district. The respondents had been interviewed on their understanding expectations of school assessment using the focus group discussion method. Overall findings showed that the administrators’ understanding expectations of school assessment was weak; especially in terms of content focus, articulation across age and grade, transparency and fairness, as well as the pedagogical implications. Findings from interviews indicated that administrators explained their understanding expectations of school assessment from the aspect of school management, and not from the aspect of instructional leadership or specifically as assessment leaders. The study implications from the administrators’ understanding expectations may hint at the difficulty of the administrators to function as assessment leaders, in order to reduce their focus as manager, and move towards their primary role in the process of teaching and learning. The administrator, as assessment leaders, would be able to reach assessment goals via collaboration in identifying and listing teacher assessment competencies, how to construct assessment capacity, how to interpret assessment correctly, the use of assessment and how to use assessment information to communicate confidently and effectively to the public.

Keywords: assessment leaders, assessment goals, instructional leadership, understanding expectation of assessment

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Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

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In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo simulation, permeability coefficient

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Authors: Prejily Thomas John

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Flooding of urban areas often has an adverse impact on the dense population residing in cities. The vulnerable areas are the most affected due to flooding, which even results in loss of life. The increasing trend of urban floods is a universal phenomenon and leads to a vital loss in the physical, economic, social, and environmental dimensions. The shift from floods being natural disasters to man-made disasters due to unplanned urban growth is evident from national and international reports. Thiruvalla, bordered by the Manimala River in the Pathanamthitta district, is an important urban node and a drainage point of various estuaries. The city is often faced with flash floods and overflow from rivers since it is a low-lying land. The need for urban flood resilience for planned urban development is a necessity for livability in consideration of the topography. The paper focuses on developing an urban design framework in everyday urban spaces through the principles of resilient urbanism. The principles guide the creation of flood-resilient spaces and productive urban landscapes for the city to enable better and safer living conditions. A flood-resilient city not only prepares the city for disasters but also improves the ecological and economic conditions.

Keywords: everyday urban spaces, flood resilience, resilient urbanism, productive urban landscapes

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Authors: Abdul Kadir, L. Meily Kurniawidjaja

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Batik Madura workers are exposed to many Musculoskeletal Disorders risk factors, particularly Low Back Pain (LBP). This study was conducted as an early detection of ergonomic risk level on Workers Industrial Sentra Batik Madura in Dusun Banyumas, Klampar Subdistrict, Proppo Pamekasan, Madura, East Java. This study includes 12 workers who 11 workers had pain in the upper and lower part of the neck, back, wrist right hand, also 10 workers had pain in the right shoulder. This is a descriptive observational study with cross-sectional approach. Qualitative research by observing workers activity such as draw and putting the wax motif, fabric dyeing, fabric painting, discoloration, washing, and drying. The results are workers have identified ergonomic hazards such as awkward postures, twisting movements, repetitive, and static work postures. Using the method of REBA and QEC, the results get a very high-risk level of activity in each of Madura batik making process is the draw and putting the wax motif, coloring, painting, discoloration, washing, and drying. The level of risk can be reduced by improvement of work equipment include the provision of seats, strut fabric, high settings furnaces, drums, coloring basin, and washing tub.

Keywords: activities of Madura's batik, ergonomic risk level, equipment, QEC (Quick Exposure Checklist), REBA (Rapid Entire Body Assessment)

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Authors: Getachew Demesa Bexa

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Building resilience to withstand extreme weather events through reduction and mitigation measures towards predicted disasters with appropriate contingency plans complemented by timely and effective emergency response demands committed and integrated/coordinated efforts. The 2006 flood disaster that claimed more than 200 people in Dire Dawa town shifted the paradigm from reactive to proactive engagement among government, NGOs and communities to contain future disasters through resilience building. Dire Dawa CMDRR Association is a model community organization that demonstrated the basic minimum and turning adversity into opportunity by mobilizing vulnerable community members. Meanwhile the birth of African Centre for Disaster Risk Management is a milestone in changing the image of the country and beyond in resilience building while linking relief and development.

Keywords: Dire Dawa, disaster, resilience, risk management

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

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The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: Thabo M. Bafitlhile, Adewole Oladele

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Botswana has been affected by floods since long ago and is still experiencing this tragic event. Flooding occurs mostly in the North-West, North-East, and parts of Central district due to heavy rainfalls experienced in these areas. The torrential rains destroyed homes, roads, flooded dams, fields and destroyed livestock and livelihoods. Palapye is one area in the central district that has been experiencing floods ever since 1995 when its greatest flood on record occurred. Heavy storms result in floods and inundation; this has been exacerbated by poor and absence of drainage structures. Since floods are a part of nature, they have existed and will to continue to exist, hence more destruction. Furthermore floods and highway plays major role in erosion and destruction of roads structures. Already today, many culverts, trenches, and other drainage facilities lack the capacity to deal with current frequency for extreme flows. Future changes in the pattern of hydro climatic events will have implications for the design and maintenance costs of roads. Increase in rainfall and severe weather events can affect the demand for emergent responses. Therefore flood forecasting and warning is a prerequisite for successful mitigation of flood damage. In flood prone areas like Palapye, preventive measures should be taken to reduce possible adverse effects of floods on the environment including road structures. Therefore this paper attempts to estimate return periods associated with huge storms of different magnitude from recorded historical rainfall depth using statistical method. The method of annual maxima was used to select data sets for the rainfall analysis. In the statistical method, the Type 1 extreme value (Gumbel), Log Normal, Log Pearson 3 distributions were all applied to the annual maximum series for Palapye area to produce IDF curves. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Chi Squared were used to confirm the appropriateness of fitted distributions for the location and the data do fit the distributions used to predict expected frequencies. This will be a beneficial tool for urgent flood forecasting and water resource administration as proper drainage design will be design based on the estimated flood events and will help to reclaim and protect the road structures from adverse impacts of flood.

Keywords: drainage, estimate, evaluation, floods, flood forecasting

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Authors: Ananya Das, Arun Kumar, Gazala Habib, Vivekanandan Perumal

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Regulatory bodies has proposed limits on Particulate Matter (PM) concentration in air; however, it does not explicitly indicate the incorporation of effects of toxicities of constituents of PM in developing regulatory limits. This study aimed to provide a structured approach to incorporate toxic effects of components in developing regulatory limits on PM. A four-step human health risk assessment framework consists of - (1) hazard identification (parameters: PM and its constituents and their associated toxic effects on health), (2) exposure assessment (parameters: concentrations of PM and constituents, information on size and shape of PM; fate and transport of PM and constituents in respiratory system), (3) dose-response assessment (parameters: reference dose or target toxicity dose of PM and its constituents), and (4) risk estimation (metric: hazard quotient and/or lifetime incremental risk of cancer as applicable). Then parameters required at every step were obtained from literature. Using this information, an attempt has been made to determine limits on PM using component-specific information. An example calculation was conducted for exposures of PM_2.5 and its metal constituents from Indian ambient environment to determine limit on PM values. Identified data gaps were: (1) concentrations of PM and its constituents and their relationship with sampling regions, (2) relationship of toxicity of PM with its components.

Keywords: air, component-specific toxicity, human health risks, particulate matter

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Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Hamid Fallah

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Undoubtedly, flood is known as a natural disaster, and in practice, flood is considered the most terrible natural disaster in the world both in terms of loss of life and financial losses. From 1988 to 1997, about 390,000 people were killed by natural disasters in the world, 58% of which were related to floods, 26% due to earthquakes, and 16% due to storms and other disasters. The total damages in these 10 years were about 700 billion dollars, which were 33, 29, 28% related to floods, storms and earthquakes, respectively. In this regard, the worrisome point has been the increasing trend of flood deaths and damages in the world in recent decades. The increase in population and assets in flood plains, changes in hydro systems and the destructive effects of human activities have been the main reasons for this increase. During rain and snow, some of the water is absorbed by the soil and plants. A percentage evaporates and the rest flows and is called runoff. Floods occur when the soil and plants cannot absorb the rainfall, and as a result, the natural river channel does not have the capacity to pass the generated runoff. On average, almost 30% of precipitation is converted into runoff, which increases with snow melting. Floods that occur differently create an area called flood plain around the river. River floods are often caused by heavy rains, which in some cases are accompanied by snow melt. A flood that flows in a river without warning or with little warning is called a flash flood. The casualties of these rapid floods that occur in small watersheds are generally more than the casualties of large river floods. Coastal areas are also subject to flooding caused by waves caused by strong storms on the surface of the oceans or waves caused by underground earthquakes. Floods not only cause damage to property and endanger the lives of humans and animals, but also leave other effects. Runoff caused by heavy rains causes soil erosion in the upstream and sedimentation problems in the downstream. The habitats of fish and other animals are often destroyed by floods. The high speed of the current increases the damage. Long-term floods stop traffic and prevent drainage and economic use of land. The supports of bridges, river banks, sewage outlets and other structures are damaged, and there is a disruption in shipping and hydropower generation. The economic losses of floods in the world are estimated at tens of billions of dollars annually.

Keywords: flood, hydrological engineering, gis, dam, small hydropower, suitablity

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Authors: Sercan Basit, Muhlis N. Sarıdede

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Metal amounts of copper based compounds in the various wastes have been recovered successfully by hydrometallurgical treatment methods in the literature. X-ray diffraction pattern of the brass melting slag demonstrates that it contains sufficient amount of recoverable copper. Recovery of copper from brass melting dross by sulfuric acid leaching and the effect of temperature and acid and oxidant concentration on recovery rate of copper have been investigated in this study. Experiments were performed in a temperature-controlled reactor in sulfuric acid solution in different molarities using solid liquid ratio of 100 g/L, with leaching time of 300 min. Temperature was changed between 25 °C and 80 °C and molarity was between 0.5 and 3M. The results obtained showed that temperature has important positive effect on recovery whereas it decreases with time. Also copper was recovered in larger amounts from brass dross in the presence of H2O2 as an oxidant according to the case that oxidant was not used.

Keywords: brass dross, copper recovery, hydrogen peroxide, leaching

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Authors: Jeremy Dixon

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Safeguarding adults forms a core part of social work practice. The Government in England and Wales has made efforts to standardise practices through The Care Act 2014. The Act states that local authorities have duties to make inquiries in cases where an adult with care or support needs is experiencing or at risk of abuse and is unable to protect themselves from abuse or neglect. Despite the importance given to safeguarding adults within law there remains little research about how social workers conduct such decisions on the ground. This presentation reports on findings from a pilot research study conducted within two social work teams in a Local Authority in England. The objective of the project was to find out how social workers interpreted safeguarding duties as laid out by The Care Act 2014 with a particular focus on how workers assessed and managed risk. Ethnographic research methods were used throughout the project. This paper focusses specifically on decisions made by workers in the assessment team. The paper reports on qualitative observation and interviews with five workers within this team. Drawing on governmentality theory, this paper analyses the techniques used by workers to manage risk from a distance. A high proportion of safeguarding referrals came from care workers or managers in residential care homes. Social workers conducting safeguarding assessments were aware that they had a duty to work in partnership with these agencies. However, their duty to safeguard adults also meant that they needed to view them as potential abusers. In making judgments about when it was proportionate to refer for a safeguarding assessment workers drew on a number of common beliefs about residential care workers which were then tested in conversations with them. Social workers held the belief that residential homes acted defensively, leading them to report any accident or danger. Social workers therefore encouraged residential workers to consider whether statutory criteria had been met and to use their own procedures to manage risk. In addition social workers carried out an assessment of the workers’ motives; specifically whether they were using safeguarding procedures as a shortcut for avoiding other assessments or as a means of accessing extra resources. Where potential abuse was identified social workers encouraged residential homes to use disciplinary policies as a means of isolating and managing risk. The study has implications for understanding risk within social work practice. It shows that whilst social workers use law to govern individuals, these laws are interpreted against cultural values. Additionally they also draw on assumptions about the culture of others.

Keywords: adult safeguarding, governmentality, risk, risk assessment

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Authors: Beng Yew Low, Cher Liang Cha, Cheng Yong Teoh

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Due to a lack of continual assessment or grade related data, identifying first-year engineering students in a polytechnic education at risk of failing is challenging. Our experience over the years tells us that there is no strong correlation between having good entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences and excelling in hardcore engineering subjects. Hence, identifying students at risk of failure cannot be on the basis of entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences alone. These factors compound the difficulty of early identification and intervention. This paper describes the development of a predictive analytics model in the early detection of students at risk of failing and evaluates its effectiveness. Data from continual assessments conducted in term one, supplemented by data of student psychological profiles such as interests and study habits, were used. Three classification techniques, namely Logistic Regression, K Nearest Neighbour, and Random Forest, were used in our predictive model. Based on our findings, Random Forest was determined to be the strongest predictor with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.994. Correspondingly, the Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F-Score were also highest among these three classifiers. Using this Random Forest Classification technique, students at risk of failure could be identified at the end of term one. They could then be assigned to a Learning Support Programme at the beginning of term two. This paper gathers the results of our findings. It also proposes further improvements that can be made to the model.

Keywords: continual assessment, predictive analytics, random forest, student psychological profile

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Authors: A. O. Adebayo, G. A. Idowu, F. Odegbemi

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Investigations on the recovery of nickel from aqueous solution using 2-hydroxy-5-nonyl- acetophenone oxime (LIX-84I) impregnated on activated charcoal was carried out. The LIX-84I was impregnated onto the pores of dried activated charcoal by dry method and optimum conditions for different equilibrium parameters (pH, adsorbent dosage, extractant concentration, agitation time and temperature) were determined using a simulated solution of nickel. The kinetics and adsorption isotherm studies were also evaluated. It was observed that the efficiency of recovery with LIX-84I impregnated on charcoal was dependent on the pH of the aqueous solution as there was little or no recovery at pH below 4. However, as the pH was raised, percentage recovery increases and peaked at pH 5.0. The recovery was found to increase with temperature up to 60ºC. Also it was observed that nickel adsorbed onto the loaded charcoal best at a lower concentration (0.1M) of the extractant when compared with higher concentrations. Similarly, a moderately low dosage (1 g) of the adsorbent showed better recovery than larger dosages. These optimum conditions were used to recover nickel from the leachate of Ni-MH batteries dissolved with sulphuric acid, and a 99.6% recovery was attained. Adsorption isotherm studies showed that the equilibrium data fitted best to Temkin model, with a negative value of constant, b (-1.017 J/mol) and a high correlation coefficient, R² of 0.9913. Kinetic studies showed that the adsorption process followed a pseudo-second order model. Thermodynamic parameter values (∆G⁰, ∆H⁰, and ∆S⁰) showed that the adsorption was endothermic and spontaneous. The impregnated charcoal appreciably recovered nickel using a relatively smaller volume of extractant than what is required in solvent extraction. Desorption studies showed that the loaded charcoal is reusable for three times, and so might be economical for nickel recovery from waste battery.

Keywords: charcoal, impregnated, LIX-84I, nickel, recovery

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Authors: Mahalakshmi Vivekanandan S.

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As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate-related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate-related changes can often happen and lead to risk and a lot of uncertainty, but needs to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate-related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and other risk types. And the models required to compute this has to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out the suggestion that the climate-related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, the author presents a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves into the topic of the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases that in turn cause global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting the Credit and market risk of an institution by understanding the transmission channels and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: the automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II Capital calculations and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar ii risk, scenario modeling

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Authors: Feng-Ming Fan, Xiu-Hui Wen

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Shortage of water resources is a crucial problem to be solved in Taiwan. However, lack of effective and mandatory regulation on water recovery and recycling leads to no effective water resource controls currently. Although existing legislation sets standards regarding water recovery, implementation and enforcement of legislation are facing challenges. In order to break through the dilemma, this study aims to find enforcement tools, improve inspection skills, develop an inspection system, to achieve sustainable development of precious water resources. The Taiwan Environmental Impact Assessment Act (EIA Act) was announced on 1994. The aim of EIA Act is to protect the environment by preventing and mitigating the adverse impact of development activity on the environment. During the EIA process, we can set standards that require enterprises to reach a certain percentage of water recycling based on different case characteristics, to promote sewage source reduction and water saving benefits. Next, we have to inspect how the enterprises handle their waste water and perform water recovery based on environmental assessment commitments, for the purpose of reviewing and measuring the implementation efficiency of water recycling and reuse, an eco-friendly measure. We invited leading experts in related fields to provide lecture on water recycling, strengthen law enforcement officials’ inspection knowledge, and write inspection reference manual to be used as basis of enforcement. Then we finalized the manual by reaching mutual agreement between the experts and relevant agencies. We then inspected 65 high-tech companies whose daily water consumption is over 1,000 tons individually, located at 3 science parks, set up by Ministry of Science and Technology. Great achievement on water recycling was achieved at an amount of 400 million tons per year, equivalent to 2.5 months water usage for general public in Taiwan. The amount is equal to 710 billion bottles of 600 ml cola, 170 thousand international standard swimming pools of 2,500 tons, irrigation water applied to 40 thousand hectares of rice fields, or 1.7 Taipei Feitsui Reservoir of reservoir storage. This study demonstrated promoting effects of environmental impact assessment commitments on water recycling, and therefore water resource sustainable development. It also confirms the value of EIA Act for environmental protection. Economic development should go hand in hand with environmental protection, and it’s a mainstream. It clearly shows the EIA regulation can minimize harmful effects caused by development activity to the environment, as well as pursuit water resources sustainable development.

Keywords: the environmental impact assessment act, water recycling environmental assessment commitment, water resource sustainable development, water recycling, water reuse

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Authors: Nirman Kumar Ojha

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Bamboo plantation can be integrated for natural embankment against flood and live fencing against wild animals, at the same time provide economic opportunity for the poor farmers as a sustainable solution and adaptation alternative. 2010 flood in the Rui River completely inundated fields of four VDCs in Madi, Chitwan National Park with extensive bank erosion. The main aim of this action research was to identify an economically sustainable natural embankment against flood and also providing wildlife friendly fencing to reduce human-wildlife conflict. Community people especially poor farmers were trained for soil testing, land identification, plantation, and the harvesting regime, nursery set up and intercropping along with bamboo plantation on the edge of the river bank in order to reduce or minimize soil erosion. Results show that farmers are able to establish cost efficient and economically sustainable river embankment with bamboo plantation also creating a fence for wildlife which has also promoted bamboo cultivation and conservation. This action research has amalgamated flood control and wildlife control with the livelihood of the farmers which otherwise would cost huge resource. Another major impact of the bamboo plantation is its role in climate change and its adaptation process reducing degradation and improving vegetation cover contributing to landscape management. Based on this study, we conclude that bamboo plantation in Madi, Chitwan promoted the livelihood of the poor farmers providing a sustainable economic solution to reduce bank erosion, human-wildlife conflict and contributes to landscape management.

Keywords: climate change and conservation, economic opportunity, flood control, national park

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