Search results for: decision model

Authors: Y. de Smet, J. Hubinont

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PROMETHEE and GAIA are well-known Multiple Criteria Decision Aid methods. Given an evaluation table and preference parameters they allow to rank the alternatives, to visualize the problem, to perform sensitivity and robustness analysis, etc. Unfortunately, it is often hard for the Decision Maker (DM) to estimate the precise values of these parameters. Therefore an alternative option is to give ranges of potential values in order to apply Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis. This has been recently studied in the context of the SMAA-PROMETHEE method. The aim of this contribution is to propose an SMAA extension of GAIA. We show how this tool can be useful and provide complementary information to SMAA-PROMETHEE. This is illustrated on a pedagogical example.

Keywords: multiple criteria decision making, PROMETHEE, GAIA, SMAA

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Authors: Cate MacMillan, Nicholas J. Stevens, Johanna Rosier, Steven Boyd

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Choosing where to live is an important decision for anybody, however, this decision is more complex if you are an adult with intellectual disability. Our research asked adults with intellectual disability, parents and carers and disability, housing and built environment decision makers what they considered important in deciding where to live. If medical advances continue to improve the longevity of adults with intellectual disability, many of these adults will outlive their parents. With appropriate community support, and in appropriately designed neighbourhoods, many will be able to live independently. Our research suggests that the key to achieving independent living as an adult with intellectual disability is not so much about the house but the type of neighbourhood and its design. This paper presents the results of interviews and details a practical approach which will better inform urban development decision-makers in establishing safe, inclusive and accessible neighbourhood design.

Keywords: inclusion, independent living, intellectual disability, neighbourhoods, systems thinking, urban design and planning

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Authors: Mohanad Rezeq, Tarik Aouam, Frederik Gailly

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In times of armed conflicts, various security checkpoints are placed by authorities to control the flow of merchandise into and within areas of conflict. The flow of humanitarian trucks that is added to the regular flow of commercial trucks, together with the complex security procedures, creates congestion and long waiting times at the security checkpoints. This causes distribution costs to increase and shortages of relief aid to the affected people to occur. Our research proposes a decision-support tool to assist planners and policymakers in building efficient plans for the distribution of relief aid, taking into account congestion at security checkpoints. The proposed tool is built around a multi-item humanitarian distribution planning model based on multi-phase design science methodology that has as its objective to minimize distribution and back ordering costs subject to capacity constraints that reflect congestion effects using nonlinear clearing functions. Using the 2014 Gaza War as a case study, we illustrate the application of the proposed tool, model the underlying relief-aid humanitarian supply chain, estimate clearing functions at different security checkpoints, and conduct computational experiments. The decision support tool generated a shipment plan that was compared to two benchmarks in terms of total distribution cost, average lead time and work in progress (WIP) at security checkpoints, and average inventory and backorders at distribution centers. The first benchmark is the shipment plan generated by the fixed capacity model, and the second is the actual shipment plan implemented by the planners during the armed conflict. According to our findings, modeling and optimizing supply chain flows reduce total distribution costs, average truck wait times at security checkpoints, and average backorders when compared to the executed plan and the fixed-capacity model. Finally, scenario analysis concludes that increasing capacity at security checkpoints can lower total operations costs by reducing the average lead time.

Keywords: humanitarian distribution planning, relief-aid distribution, congestion, clearing functions

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Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased, Paweena Sribunrueng

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The objective of this study is to investigate strategies in customer relationship management and customers’ behavior in making decision on buying car insurance of Southeast Insurance Co. Ltd. in Bangkok. Subjects in this study included 400 customers with the age over 20 years old to complete questionnaires. The data were analyzed by arithmetic mean and multiple regressions. The results revealed that the customers’ opinions on the strategies in customer relationship management, i.e. customer relationship, customer feedback, customer follow-up, useful service suggestions, customer communication, and service channels were in moderate level but on the customer retention was in high level. Moreover, the strategy in customer relationship management, i.e. customer relationship, and customer feedback had an influence on customers’ buying decision on buying car insurance. The two factors above can be used for the prediction at the rate of 34%. In addition, the strategy in customer relationship management, i.e. customer retention, customer feedback, and useful service suggestions had an influence on the customers’ buying decision on period of being customers. The three factors could be used for the prediction at the rate of 45%.

Keywords: strategies, customer relationship management, behavior in buying decision, car insurance

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Authors: Mansoureh Ghiasabadi Farahani, Samira Kalantary, Sara Taghi-Pour, Mahboubeh Shamsi

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Nowadays, the development of computers technology and its recent applications provide access to new types of data, which have not been considered by the traditional data analysts. Two particularly interesting characteristics of such data sets include their huge size and streaming nature .Incremental learning techniques have been used extensively to address the data stream classification problem. This paper presents a concise survey on the obstacles and the requirements issues classifying data streams with using decision tree. The most important issue is to maintain a balance between accuracy and efficiency, the algorithm should provide good classification performance with a reasonable time response.

Keywords: big data, data streams, classification, decision tree

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Authors: Hussain Syed Asad, Richard Kwok Kit Yuen, Gongsheng Huang

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Real-time optimization has been considered an effective approach for improving energy efficient operation of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. In model-based real-time optimization, model mismatches cannot be avoided. When model mismatches are significant, the performance of the real-time optimization will be impaired and hence the expected energy saving will be reduced. In this paper, the model mismatches for chiller plant on real-time optimization are considered. In the real-time optimization of the chiller plant, simplified semi-physical or grey box model of chiller is always used, which should be identified using available operation data. To overcome the model mismatches associated with the chiller model, hybrid Genetic Algorithms (HGAs) method is used for online real-time training of the chiller model. HGAs combines Genetic Algorithms (GAs) method (for global search) and traditional optimization method (i.e. faster and more efficient for local search) to avoid conventional hit and trial process of GAs. The identification of model parameters is synthesized as an optimization problem; and the objective function is the Least Square Error between the output from the model and the actual output from the chiller plant. A case study is used to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method. It has been shown that the proposed approach is able to provide reliability in decision making, enhance the robustness of the real-time optimization strategy and improve on energy performance.

Keywords: energy performance, hybrid adaptive modeling, hybrid genetic algorithms, real-time optimization, heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning

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Authors: Bidzina Matsaberidze

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It is known that, in emergency situations, multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) models are characterized by insufficient objective data and a lack of time to respond to the task. Evidence theory is an effective tool for describing such incomplete information in decision-making models when the expert and his knowledge are involved in the estimations of the MAGDM parameters. We consider an emergency decision-making model, where expert assessments on humanitarian aid from distribution centers (HADC) are represented in q-rung ortho-pair fuzzy numbers, and the data structure is described within the data body theory. Based on focal probability construction and experts’ evaluations, an objective function-distribution centers’ selection ranking index is constructed. Our approach for solving the constructed bicriteria partitioning problem consists of two phases. In the first phase, based on the covering’s matrix, we generate a matrix, the columns of which allow us to find all possible partitionings of the HADCs with the service centers. Some constraints are also taken into consideration while generating the matrix. In the second phase, based on the matrix and using our exact algorithm, we find the partitionings -allocations of the HADCs to the centers- which correspond to the Pareto-optimal solutions. For an illustration of the obtained results, a numerical example is given for the facility location-selection problem.

Keywords: emergency MAGDM, q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets, evidence theory, HADC, facility location problem, multi-objective combinatorial optimization problem, Pareto-optimal solutions

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Authors: Bita Payami-Shabestari, Dariush Eslami

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The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-product economic production quantity model under vendor management inventory policy and restrictions including limited warehouse space, budget, and number of orders, average shortage time and maximum permissible shortage. Since the “costs” cannot be predicted with certainty, it is assumed that data behave under uncertain environment. The problem is first formulated into the framework of a bi-objective of multi-product economic production quantity model. Then, the problem is solved with three multi-objective decision-making (MODM) methods. Then following this, three methods had been compared on information on the optimal value of the two objective functions and the central processing unit (CPU) time with the statistical analysis method and the multi-attribute decision-making (MADM). The results are compared with statistical analysis method and the MADM. The results of the study demonstrate that augmented-constraint in terms of optimal value of the two objective functions and the CPU time perform better than global criteria, and goal programming. Sensitivity analysis is done to illustrate the effect of parameter variations on the optimal solution. The contribution of this research is the use of random costs data in developing a multi-product economic production quantity model under vendor management inventory policy with several constraints.

Keywords: economic production quantity, random cost, supply chain management, vendor-managed inventory

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Authors: Catherine Wheatley, Emma L. Davies, Helen Dawes

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The health benefits of exercise are widely recognised, but numerous interventions have failed to halt a sharp decline in physical activity during early adolescence. Many such projects are underpinned by the Theory of Planned Behaviour, yet this model of rational decision-making leaves variance in behavior unexplained. This study investigated whether the Prototype Willingness Model, which proposes a second, reactive decision-making path to account for spontaneous responses to the social environment, has potential to improve understanding of adolescent exercise behaviour in school by exploring constructs in the model with young people. PE teachers in 4 Oxfordshire schools each nominated 6 pupils who were active in school, and 6 who were inactive, to participate in the study. Of these, 45 (22 male) aged 12-13 took part in 8 focus group discussions. These were transcribed and subjected to deductive thematic analysis to search for themes relating to the prototype willingness model. Participants appeared to make rational decisions about commuting to school or attending sports clubs, but spontaneous choices to be inactive during both break and PE. These reactive decisions seemed influenced by a social context described as more ‘judgmental’ than primary school, characterised by anxiety about physical competence, negative peer evaluation and inactive playground norms. Participants described their images of typical active and inactive adolescents: active images included negative social characteristics including ‘show-off’. There was little concern about the long-term risks of inactivity, although participants seemed to recognise that physical activity is healthy. The Prototype Willingness Model might more fully explain young adolescents’ physical activity in school than rational behavioural models, indicating potential for physical activity interventions that target social anxieties in response to the changing playground environment. Images of active types could be more complex than earlier research has suggested, and their negative characteristics might influence willingness to be active.

Keywords: adolescence, physical activity, prototype willingness model, school

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Authors: Fernando Martín-Espejo, Christophe Crombez

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This paper presents a political-economic analysis of the reforms introduced during the coronavirus crisis at the EU level with a special emphasis on the recovery fund Next Generation EU (NGEU). It also introduces a spatial model to evaluate whether the governmental features of the recovery fund can be framed inside the community method. Particularly, by evaluating the brake clause in the NGEU legislation, this paper analyses theoretically the political and legislative implications of the introduction of flexibility clauses in the EU decision-making process.

Keywords: EU, legislative procedures, spatial model, coronavirus

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Authors: Mária Hudáková, Vladimír Míka, Katarína Hollá

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Making decisions is the core of management and a result of conscious activities which is under way in a particular environment and concrete conditions. The managers decide about the goals, procedures and about the methods how to respond to the changes and to the problems which developed. Their decisions affect the effectiveness, quality, economy and the overall successfulness in every organisation. In spite of this fact, they do not pay sufficient attention to the individual steps of the decision-making process. They emphasise more how to cope with the individual methods and techniques of making decisions and forget about the way how to cope with analysing the problem or assessing the individual solution variants. In many cases, the underestimating of the analytical phase can lead to an incorrect assessment of the problem and this can then negatively influence its further solution. Based on our analysis of the theoretical solutions by individual authors who are dealing with this area and the realised research in Slovakia and also abroad we can recognise an insufficient interest of the managers to assess the risks in the decision-making process. The goal of this paper is to assess the risks in the managers´ decision-making process relating to the conditions of the environment, to the subject’s activity (the manager’s personality), to the insufficient assessment of individual variants for solving the problems but also to situations when the arisen problem is not solved. The benefit of this paper is the effort to increase the need of the managers to deal with the risks during the decision-making process. It is important for every manager to assess the risks in his/her decision-making process and to make efforts to take such decisions which reflect the basic conditions, states and development of the environment in the best way and especially for the managers´ decisions to contribute to achieving the determined goals of the organisation as effectively as possible.

Keywords: risk, decision-making, manager, process, analysis, source of risk

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Authors: Masood Karamoozian, Zhang Hong

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The necessity and complexity of the decision-making process and the interference of the various factors to make decisions and consider all the relevant factors in a problem are very obvious nowadays. Hence, researchers show their interest in multi-criteria decision-making methods. In this research, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methods of multi-criteria decision-making have been used to solve the problem of optimal construction systems. Systems being evaluated in this problem include; Light Steel Frames (LSF), a case study of designs by Zhang Hong studio in the Southeast University of Nanjing, Insulating Concrete Form (ICF), Ordinary Construction System (OCS), and Prefabricated Concrete System (PRCS) as another case study designs in Zhang Hong studio in the Southeast University of Nanjing. Crowdsourcing was done by using a questionnaire at the sample level (200 people). Questionnaires were distributed among experts, university centers, and conferences. According to the results of the research, the use of different methods of decision-making led to relatively the same results. In this way, with the use of all three multi-criteria decision-making methods mentioned above, the Prefabricated Concrete System (PRCS) was in the first rank, and the Light Steel Frame (LSF) system ranked second. Also, the Prefabricated Concrete System (PRCS), in terms of performance standards and economics, was ranked first, and the Light Steel Frame (LSF) system was allocated the first rank in terms of environmental standards.

Keywords: multi-criteria decision making, AHP, SAW, TOPSIS

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Authors: Jan Van Uden

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The paper reviews classical agency-theory and its contributions to the analysis of complex business negotiations and gives an approach for the modification of the basic agency-model in order to examine the negotiation specific dimensions of agency-problems. By illustrating fundamental potentials for the modification of agency-theory in context of business negotiations the paper highlights recent empirical research that investigates agent-based negotiations and inter-team constellations. A general theoretical analysis of complex negotiation would be based on a two-level approach. First, the modification of the basic agency-model in order to illustrate the organizational context of business negotiations (i.e., multi-agent issues, common-agencies, multi-period models and the concept of bounded rationality). Second, the application of the modified agency-model on complex business negotiations to identify agency-problems and relating areas of risk in the negotiation process. The paper is placed on the first level of analysis – the modification. The method builds on the one hand on insights from behavior decision research (BRD) and on the other hand on findings from agency-theory as normative directives to the modification of the basic model. Through neoclassical assumptions concerning the fundamental aspects of agency-relationships in business negotiations (i.e., asymmetric information, self-interest, risk preferences and conflict of interests), agency-theory helps to draw solutions on stated worst-case-scenarios taken from the daily negotiation routine. As agency-theory is the only universal approach able to identify trade-offs between certain aspects of economic cooperation, insights obtained provide a deeper understanding of the forces that shape business negotiation complexity. The need for a modification of the basic model is illustrated by highlighting selected issues of business negotiations from agency-theory perspective: Negotiation Teams require a multi-agent approach under the condition that often decision-makers as superior-agents are part of the team. The diversity of competences and decision-making authority is a phenomenon that overrides the assumptions of classical agency-theory and varies greatly in context of certain forms of business negotiations. Further, the basic model is bound to dyadic relationships preceded by the delegation of decision-making authority and builds on a contractual created (vertical) hierarchy. As a result, horizontal dynamics within the negotiation team playing an important role for negotiation success are therefore not considered in the investigation of agency-problems. Also, the trade-off between short-term relationships within the negotiation sphere and the long-term relationships of the corporate sphere calls for a multi-period perspective taking into account the sphere-specific governance-mechanisms already established (i.e., reward and monitoring systems). Within the analysis, the implementation of bounded rationality is closely related to findings from BRD to assess the impact of negotiation behavior on underlying principal-agent-relationships. As empirical findings show, the disclosure and reservation of information to the agent affect his negotiation behavior as well as final negotiation outcomes. Last, in context of business negotiations, asymmetric information is often intended by decision-makers acting as superior-agents or principals which calls for a bilateral risk-approach to agency-relations.

Keywords: business negotiations, agency-theory, negotiation analysis, interteam negotiations

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Authors: Erfan Izadpanah

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The present study was conducted to investigate the effect of the Trans-Cranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS) on cognitive flexibility and social decision-making in skilled, semi-skilled and novice football players. The present quasi-experimental pretest-posttest study was conducted on 60 randomly-selected subjects divided into trial and placebo groups (n=30 per group). The trial group received three 20-minute sessions of anodic stimulation at the intensity of 2 mA. The placebo group also received three sessions of sham anodic stimulation. Data were collected using the Wisconsin, Grant and Berg Card-Sorting Test (1948) and the ultimatum game and were then analyzed using the ANCOVA. The results showed significant differences between the skilled, semi-skilled and novice football players in the trial and placebo groups in terms of cognitive flexibility and social decision-making (P<0.01). TDCS appears to be able to improve cognitive flexibility and consequently social decision-making in football players and is recommended to sport psychologists and coaches as a useful intervention to increase cognitive flexibility and improve social decision-making in players.

Keywords: TDCS, cognitive flexibility, social decision-making, skilled, semi-skilled and novice football players

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Authors: Mogale Sabone, Thabiso Ntlole

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The pressure from globalization has made manufacturing organizations to move towards three major competitive arenas: quality, cost, and responsiveness. Quality is a universal value and has become a global issue. In order to survive and be able to provide customers with good products, manufacturing organizations’ supporting systems, tools, and structures it uses must grow or evolve. The majority of quality management concepts and strategies that are practiced recently are aimed at detecting and correcting problems which already exist and serve to limit losses. In agile manufacturing environment there is no room for defect and error so it needs a quality management which is proactively directed at problem prevention. This proactive quality management avoids losses by focusing on failure prevention, virtual elimination of the possibility of premature failure, mistake-proofing, and assuring consistently high quality in the definition and design of creation processes. To achieve this, a decision support tool for quality control and management is suggested. Current decision support tools/methods used by most manufacturing companies in Botswana for quality management and control are not integrated, for example they are not consistent since some tests results data is recorded manually only whilst others are recorded electronically. It is only a set of procedures not a tool. These procedures cannot offer interactive decision support. This point brings to light the aim of this research which is to develop a framework which will help manufacturing companies in Botswana build a decision support tool for quality control and management.

Keywords: decision support tool, manufacturing, quality control, quality management

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Authors: Irfan Ali, Srikant Gupta, Aquil Ahmed

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Every country needs a sustainable development (SD) for its economic growth by forming suitable policies and initiative programs for the development of different sectors of the country. This paper is comprised of modeling and optimization of different sectors of India that form a multi-criterion model. In this paper, we developed a fractional goal programming (FGP) model that helps in providing the efficient allocation of resources simultaneously by achieving the sustainable goals in gross domestic product (GDP), electricity consumption (EC) and greenhouse gasses (GHG) emission by the year 2030. Also, a weighted model of FGP is presented to obtain varying solution according to the priorities set by the policy maker for achieving future goals of GDP growth, EC, and GHG emission. The presented models provide a useful insight to the decision makers for implementing strategies in a different sector.

Keywords: sustainable and economic development, multi-objective fractional programming, fuzzy goal programming, weighted fuzzy goal programming

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

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In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control

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Authors: Nikita Valluri, Vatcharaporn Esichaikul

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With the popularity of data-driven decision making on the rise, this study focuses on providing an alternative outlook towards the process of decision-making. Combining quantitative and qualitative methods rooted in the social sciences, an integrated framework is presented with a focus on delivering a much more robust and efficient approach towards the concept of data-driven decision-making with respect to not only Big data but also 'Thick data', a new form of qualitative data. In support of this, an example from the retail sector has been illustrated where the framework is put into action to yield insights and leverage business intelligence. An interpretive approach to analyze findings from both kinds of quantitative and qualitative data has been used to glean insights. Using traditional Point-of-sale data as well as an understanding of customer psychographics and preferences, techniques of data mining along with qualitative methods (such as grounded theory, ethnomethodology, etc.) are applied. This study’s final goal is to establish the framework as a basis for providing a holistic solution encompassing both the Big and Thick aspects of any business need. The proposed framework is a modified enhancement in lieu of traditional data-driven decision-making approach, which is mainly dependent on quantitative data for decision-making.

Keywords: big data, customer behavior, customer experience, data mining, qualitative methods, quantitative methods, thick data

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Authors: Lei Zhao, Zhe Yuan, Wenyue Kuang

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This paper studies two-warehouse inventory models for a deteriorating item considering that the demand is influenced by inventory levels. The problem mainly focuses on the optimal order policy and the optimal order cycle with inventory-level-dependent demand in two-warehouse system for retailers. It considers the different deterioration rates and the inventory holding costs in owned warehouse (OW) and rented warehouse (RW), and the conditions of transportation cost, allowed shortage and partial backlogging. Two inventory models are formulated: last-in first-out (LIFO) model and first-in-first-out (FIFO) model based on the policy choices of LIFO and FIFO, and a comparative analysis of LIFO model and FIFO model is made. The study finds that the FIFO policy is more in line with realistic operating conditions. Especially when the inventory holding cost of OW is high, and there is no difference or big difference between deterioration rates of OW and RW, the FIFO policy has better applicability. Meanwhile, this paper considers the differences between the effects of warehouse and shelf inventory levels on demand, and then builds retailers’ inventory decision model and studies the factors of the optimal order quantity, the optimal order cycle and the average inventory cost per unit time. To minimize the average total cost, the optimal dispatching policies are provided for retailers’ decisions.

Keywords: FIFO model, inventory-level-dependent, LIFO model, two-warehouse inventory

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Authors: Kazuki Kamada, Haruka Yamashita

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In Japan, taxi is one of the popular transportations and taxi industry is one of the big businesses. However, in recent years, there has been a difficult problem of reducing the number of taxi drivers. In the taxi business, mainly three passenger catching methods are applied. One style is "cruising" that drivers catches passengers while driving on a road. Second is "waiting" that waits passengers near by the places with many requirements for taxies such as entrances of hospitals, train stations. The third one is "dispatching" that is allocated based on the contact from the taxi company. Above all, the cruising taxi drivers need the experience and intuition for finding passengers, and it is difficult to decide "the destination for cruising". The strong recommendation system for the cruising taxies supports the new drivers to find passengers, and it can be the solution for the decreasing the number of drivers in the taxi industry. In this research, we propose a method of recommending a destination for cruising taxi drivers. On the other hand, as a machine learning technique, the embedding models that embed the high dimensional data to a low dimensional space is widely used for the data analysis, in order to represent the relationship of the meaning between the data clearly. Taxi drivers have their favorite courses based on their experiences, and the courses are different for each driver. We assume that the course of cruising taxies has meaning such as the course for finding business man passengers (go around the business area of the city of go to main stations) and course for finding traveler passengers (go around the sightseeing places or big hotels), and extract the meaning of their destinations. We analyze the cruising history data of taxis based on the embedding model and propose the recommendation system for passengers. Finally, we demonstrate the recommendation of destinations for cruising taxi drivers based on the real-world data analysis using proposing method.

Keywords: taxi industry, decision making, recommendation system, embedding model

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Authors: Ahmed M. El-Araby, Ibrahim Sabry, Ahmed El-Assal

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The relationships between the industrial facilities, the capacity available for these facilities, and the costs involved are the main factors in deciding the correct selection of a facility layout. In general, an issue of facility layout is considered to be an unstructured problem of decision-making. The objective of this work is to provide a survey that describes the techniques by which a facility planning problem can be solved and also the effect of these techniques on the efficiency of the layout. The multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques can be classified according to the previous researches into three categories which are the use of single MCDM, combining two or more MCDM, and the integration of MCDM with another technique such as genetic algorithms (GA). This paper presents a review of different multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques that have been proposed in the literature to pick the most suitable layout design. These methods are particularly suitable to deal with complex situations, including various criteria and conflicting goals which need to be optimized simultaneously.

Keywords: facility layout, MCDM, GA, literature review

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Authors: Mohammad Besharatloo

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Intrusion detection is an important research topic in network security because of increasing growth in the use of computer network services. Intrusion detection is done with the aim of detecting the unauthorized use or abuse in the networks and systems by the intruders. Therefore, the intrusion detection system is an efficient tool to control the user's access through some predefined regulations. Since, the data used in intrusion detection system has high dimension, a proper representation is required to show the basis structure of this data. Therefore, it is necessary to eliminate the redundant features to create the best representation subset. In the proposed method, a hybrid model of differential evolution and firefly algorithms was employed to choose the best subset of properties. In addition, decision tree and support vector machine (SVM) are adopted to determine the quality of the selected properties. In the first, the sorted population is divided into two sub-populations. These optimization algorithms were implemented on these sub-populations, respectively. Then, these sub-populations are merged to create next repetition population. The performance evaluation of the proposed method is done based on KDD Cup99. The simulation results show that the proposed method has better performance than the other methods in this context.

Keywords: intrusion detection system, differential evolution, firefly algorithm, support vector machine, decision tree

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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Authors: Swati Kishor Zode, Rahul Ambekar

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Data mining is the extraction of fascinating examples on the other hand information from enormous measure of information and choice is made as indicated by the applicable information extracted. As of late, with the dangerous advancement in internet, stockpiling of information and handling procedures, privacy preservation has been one of the major (higher) concerns in data mining. Various techniques and methods have been produced for protection saving data mining. In the situation of Clinical Decision Support System, the choice is to be made on the premise of the data separated from the remote servers by means of Internet to diagnose the patient. In this paper, the fundamental thought is to build the precision of Decision Support System for multiple diseases for different maladies and in addition protect persistent information while correspondence between Clinician side (Client side) also, the Server side. A privacy preserving protocol for clinical decision support network is proposed so that patients information dependably stay scrambled amid diagnose prepare by looking after the accuracy. To enhance the precision of Decision Support System for various malady C5.0 classifiers and to save security, a Homomorphism encryption algorithm Paillier cryptosystem is being utilized.

Keywords: classification, homomorphic encryption, clinical decision support, privacy

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Authors: Joseph Ignagni, Rebecca Deen

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In this study, the decision making of the Justices of the United States Supreme Court will be considered in terms of constrained maximization and cognitive-cybernetic theory. This paper will integrate research in such fields as law, psychology, political science, economics and decision-making theory. It will be argued that due to its heavy workload, the Supreme Court may be forced to make decisions in a boundedly rational manner. The ideas and theory put forward here will be considered in the area of the Court’s decisions involving religion. Therefore, the cases involving the U.S. Constitution’s Free Exercise Clause and Establishment Clause will be analyzed.

Keywords: bounded rationality, cognitive-cybernetic, US supreme court, religion

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Authors: A. Luli, A. Santona

Abstract:

It is rare for individuals that are involved in a relationship to think about the possibility of having procreation problems in the near present or in the future. However, infertility is a condition that affects millions of people all around the world. Often, infertile individuals have to deal with experiences of psychological, relational and social problems. In these cases, they have to review their choices and take into consideration, if it is necessary, new ones. Different studies have examined the different decisions that infertile individuals have to go through dealing with infertility and its treatment, but none of them is focused on the decision-making style used by infertile individuals to solve their problem and on the factors that influences it. The aim of this paper is to define the style of decision-making used by infertile persons to give a solution to the ‘problem’ and the potential predictive role of the attachment and of the dyadic adjustment. The total sample is composed by 251 participants, divided in two groups: the experimental group composed by 114 participants, 62 males and 52 females, age between 25 and 59 years, and the control group composed by 137 participants, 65 males and 72 females, age between 22 and 49 years. The battery of instruments used is composed by: the General Decision Making Style (GDMS), the Experiences in Close Relationships Questionnaire Revised (ECR-R), Dyadic Adjustment Scale (DAS), and the Symptom Checklist-90-R (SCL-90-R). The results from the analysis of the samples showed a prevalence of the rational decision-making style for both males and females. No significant statistical difference was found between the experimental and control group. Also the analyses showed a significant statistical relationship between the decision making styles and the adult attachment styles for both males and females. In this case, only for males, there was a significant statistical difference between the experimental and the control group. Another significant statistical relationship was founded between the decision making styles and the adjustment scales for both males and females. Also in this case, the difference between the two groups was founded to be significant only of males. These results contribute to enrich the literature on the subject of decision-making styles in infertile individuals, showing also the predictive role of the attachment styles and the adjustment, confirming in this was the few results in the literature.

Keywords: adjustment, attachment, decision-making style, infertility

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Authors: Babak Nematshahrbabaki, Fallahi Arezoo

Abstract:

Objective: The aim of this study was to describe teenagers’ decisions to undergo orthodontic treatment through a qualitative study. Materials and methods: Twenty-three patients (12 girls), aged 12–18 years, at a dental clinic in Sanandaj the western part of Iran participated. Face-to-face and semi-structured interviews and two focus group discussions were held to gather data. Data analyzed by the grounded theory method. Results: ‘Decision-making’ was the core category. During the data analysis four main themes were developed: ‘being like everyone else’, ‘being diagnosed’, ‘maintaining the mouth’ and ‘cultural-social and environmental factors’. Conclusions: cultural- social and environmental factors have crucial role in decision-making to undergo orthodontic treatment. The teenagers were not fully conscious of these external influences. They thought their decision to undergo orthodontic treatment is independent while it is related to cultural- social and environmental factors.

Keywords: decision-making, qualitative study, teenager, orthodontic treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 452

Authors: Vareesha Masood, Ammara Gul, Nabeeha Areej, Muhammad Asif Masood, Hamna Imran

Abstract:

The universal use of PDF files has prompted hackers to use them for malicious intent by hiding malicious codes in their victim’s PDF machines. Machine learning has proven to be the most efficient in identifying benign files and detecting files with PDF malware. This paper has proposed an approach using a decision tree classifier with parameters. A modern, inclusive dataset CIC-Evasive-PDFMal2022, produced by Lockheed Martin’s Cyber Security wing is used. It is one of the most reliable datasets to use in this field. We designed a PDF malware detection system that achieved 99.2%. Comparing the suggested model to other cutting-edge models in the same study field, it has a great performance in detecting PDF malware. Accordingly, we provide the fastest, most reliable, and most efficient PDF Malware detection approach in this paper.

Keywords: PDF, PDF malware, decision tree classifier, random forest classifier

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Addisu H. Addis, Hugh T. Blair, Paul R. Kenyon, Stephen T. Morris, Nicola M. Schreurs, Dorian J. Garrick

Abstract:

Agent-based modeling (ABM) enables an in silico representation of complex systems and cap-tures agent behavior resulting from interaction with other agents and their environment. This study developed an ABM to represent a pasture-based beef cattle finishing systems in New Zea-land (NZ) using attributes of the rearer, finisher, and processor, as well as specific attributes of dairy-origin beef cattle. The model was parameterized using values representing 1% of NZ dairy-origin cattle, and 10% of rearers and finishers in NZ. The cattle agent consisted of 32% Holstein-Friesian, 50% Holstein-Friesian–Jersey crossbred, and 8% Jersey, with the remainder being other breeds. Rearers and finishers repetitively and simultaneously interacted to determine the type and number of cattle populating the finishing system. Rearers brought in four-day-old spring-born calves and reared them until 60 calves (representing a full truck load) on average had a live weight of 100 kg before selling them on to finishers. Finishers mainly attained weaners from rearers, or directly from dairy farmers when weaner demand was higher than the supply from rearers. Fast-growing cattle were sent for slaughter before the second winter, and the re-mainder were sent before their third winter. The model finished a higher number of bulls than heifers and steers, although it was 4% lower than the industry reported value. Holstein-Friesian and Holstein-Friesian–Jersey-crossbred cattle dominated the dairy-origin beef finishing system. Jersey cattle account for less than 5% of total processed beef cattle. Further studies to include re-tailer and consumer perspectives and other decision alternatives for finishing farms would im-prove the applicability of the model for decision-making processes.

Keywords: agent-based modelling, dairy cattle, beef finishing, rearers, finishers

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Eda Orhun

Abstract:

Purpose: This paper analyzes a target firm’s decision to voluntarily disclose information during a takeover event and the effect of such disclosures on the outcome of the takeover. Such voluntary disclosures especially in the form of earnings forecasts made around takeover events may affect shareholders’ decisions about the target firm’s value and in return takeover result. This study aims to shed light on this question. Design/methodology/approach: The paper tries to understand the role of voluntary disclosures by target firms during a takeover event in the likelihood of takeover success both theoretically and empirically. A game-theoretical model is set up to analyze the voluntary disclosure decision of a target firm to inform the shareholders about its real worth. The empirical implication of model is tested by employing binary outcome models where the disclosure variable is obtained by identifying the target firms in the sample that provide positive news by issuing increasing management earnings forecasts. Findings: The model predicts that a voluntary disclosure of positive information by the target decreases the likelihood that the takeover succeeds. The empirical analysis confirms this prediction by showing that positive earnings forecasts by target firms during takeover events increase the probability of takeover failure. Overall, it is shown that information dissemination through voluntary disclosures by target firms is an important factor affecting takeover outcomes. Originality/Value: This study is the first to the author's knowledge that studies the impact of voluntary disclosures by the target firm during a takeover event on the likelihood of takeover success. The results contribute to information economics, corporate finance and M&As literatures.

Keywords: takeovers, target firm, voluntary disclosures, earnings forecasts, takeover success

Procedia PDF Downloads 317