Search results for: benefit incidence analysis

Authors: Bang Haeyong

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Purpose: The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence, incidence, and risk factors for postoperative fever after lumbar fusion. Methods: This study was a retrospective chart review of 291 patients who underwent lumbar fusion between March 2015 and February 2016 at the Asan Medical Center. Information was extracted from electronic medical records. Postoperative fever was measured at Tmax > 37.7 ℃ and Tmax > 38.3 ℃. The presence of postoperative fever, blood culture, urinary excretion, and/or chest x-ray were evaluated. Patients were evaluated for infection after lumbar fusion. Results: We found 222 patients (76.3%) had a postoperative temperature of 37.7 ℃, and 162 patients (55.7%) had a postoperative temperature of 38.3 ℃ or higher. The percentage of febrile patients trended down following the mean 1.8days (from the first postoperative day to seventh postoperative day). Infection rate was 9 patients (3.1%), respiratory virus (1.7%), urinary tract infection (0.3%), phlebitis (0.3%), and surgical site infection (1.4%). There was no correlation between Tmax > 37.7℃ or Tmax > 38.3℃, and timing of fever, positive blood or urine cultures, pneumonia, or surgical site infection. Risk factors for increased postoperative fever following surgery were confirmed to be delay of defecation (OR=1.37, p=.046), and shorten of remove drainage (OR=0.66, p=.037). Conclusions: The incidence of fever was 76.3% after lumbar fusion and the drainage time was faster in the case of fever. It was thought that the bleeding was absorbed at the operation site and fever occurred. The prevalence of febrile septicemia was higher in patients with long bowel movements before surgery than after surgery. Clinical symptoms should be considered because postoperative fever cannot be determined by fever alone because fever and infection are not significant.

Keywords: lumbar surgery, fever, postoperative, risk factor

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Authors: Hina Munir Abbasi

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The current paper examines the relationship and diversification ability of Islamic stock indices /conventional stocks indices and Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs).To represent conditional dependency between stocks and REITs in a more realistic way, new modeling technique, time-varying copula with switching dependence is used. It represents reliance structure more accurately and realistically than a single copula regime as dependence may alter between positive and negative correlation regimes with time. The fluctuating behavior of markets has significant impact on economic variables; especially the downward trend during crisis. Overall addition of Real Estate Investment Trust in stocks portfolio reduces risks and provide better diversification benefit. Results varied depending upon the circumstances of the country. REITs provides better diversification benefits for Islamic Stocks, when both markets are bearish and can provide hedging benefit for conventional stocks portfolio.

Keywords: conventional stocks, real estate investment trust, copula, diversification, risk spillover, safe heaven

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Authors: Herlangga Pramaditya, Agus Sulistyono, Risa Etika, Budiono Budiono, Alvin Saputra

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Preterm birth and anemia of prematurity are the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in neonates, and anemia of the preterm neonates has become a major issue. The timing of umbilical cord clamping after a baby is born determines the amount of blood transferred from the placenta to fetus, Delayed Cord Clamping (DCC) has proven to prevent anemia in the neonates but it is constrained concern regarding the delayed in neonatal resuscitation. Umbilical Cord Milking (UCM) could be an alternative method for clamping the umbilical cord due to the active blood transfer from the placenta to the fetus. The aim of this study was to analyze the difference between maternal and neonatal outcome in preterm abdominal delivery who underwent UCM compared to ECC. This was an experimental study with randomized post-test only control design. Analyzed maternal and neonatal outcomes, significant P values (P <0.05). Statistical comparison was carried out using Paired Samples t-test (α two tailed 0,05). The result was the mean of preoperative mother’s hemoglobin in UCM group compared to ECC (10,9 + 0,9 g/dL vs 10,4 + 0,9 g/dL) and postoperative (11,1 + 1,1 g/dL vs 10,5 + 0,7 g/dL), the delta was (0,2 + 0,7 vs 0,1 + 0,6.). It showed no significant difference (P=0,395 vs 0,627). The mean of 3rd phase labor duration in UCM group vs ECC was (20,5 + 3,5 second vs 21,1 + 3,3 second), showed insignificant difference (P=0,634). The amount of bleeding after delivery in UCM group compared to ECC has the median of 190 cc (100-280cc) vs 210 cc (150-330 cc) showed insignificant difference (P=0,083) so the incidence of post-partum bleeding was not found. The mean of the neonates hemoglobin, hematocrit and erythrocytes of UCM group compared to ECC was (19,3 + 0,7 vs 15,9 + 0,8 g/dl), (57,1 + 3,6 % vs 47,2 + 2,8 %), and (5,4 + 0,4 g/dl vs 4,5 + 0,3 g/dl) showed significant difference (P<0,0001). There was no baby in UCM group received blood transfusion and one baby in the control ECC group received blood transfusion was found. Umbilical Cord Milking has shown to increase the baby’s blood component such as hemoglobin, hematocrit, and erythrocytes 6 hours after birth as well as lowering the incidence of blood transfusions. Maternal and neonatal morbidity were not found. Umbilical Cord Milking was the act of clamping the umbilical cord that was more beneficial to the baby and no adverse or negative effects on the mother.

Keywords: umbilical cord milking, early cord clamping, maternal and neonatal outcome, preterm, abdominal delivery

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Authors: Basma Yassa

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Evidence on cash transfers’ effectiveness in mitigating macro and idiosyncratic shocks’ impacts has been mixed and is mostly concentrated in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia with very limited evidence from the MENA region. Yet conditional cash transfers schemes have been continually used, especially in Egypt, as the main social protection tool in response to the recent socioeconomic crises and macro shocks. We use 2 panel datasets and 1 cross-sectional dataset to estimate the effectiveness of cash transfers as a shock-mitigative mechanism in the Egyptian context. In this paper, the results from the different models (Panel Fixed Effects model and the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) model) confirm that micro and macro shocks lead to significant decline in several household-level welfare outcomes and that Takaful cash transfers have a significant positive impact in mitigating the negative shock impacts, especially on households’ debt incidence, debt levels, and asset ownership, but not necessarily on food, and non-food expenditure levels. The results indicate large positive significant effects on decreasing household incidence of debt by up to 12.4 percent and lowered the debt size by approximately 18 percent among Takaful beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries’. Similar evidence is found on asset ownership levels, as the RDD model shows significant positive effects on total asset ownership and productive asset ownership, but the model failed to detect positive impacts on per capita food and non-food expenditures. Further extensions are still in progress to compare the models’ results with the DID model results when using a nationally representative ELMPS panel data (2018/2024) rounds. Finally, our initial analysis suggests that conditional cash transfers are effective in buffering the negative shock impacts on certain welfare indicators even after successive macro-economic shocks in 2022 and 2023 in the Egyptian Context.

Keywords: cash transfers, fixed effects, household welfare, household debt, micro shocks, regression discontinuity design

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Authors: Thamo Sutharssan, Diogo Montalvao, Wen-Chung Wang, Yong Chen, Claudia Pisac

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A combined heat and power (CHP) system is an efficient and clean way to generate power (electricity). Heat produced by the CHP system can be used for water and space heating. The CHP system which uses hydrogen as fuel produces zero carbon emission. Its’ efficiency can reach more than 80% whereas that of a traditional power station can only reach up to 50% because much of the thermal energy is wasted. The other advantages of CHP systems include that they can decentralize energy generation, improve energy security and sustainability, and significantly reduce the energy cost to the users. This paper presents the economic benefits of using a CHP system in the domestic environment. For this analysis, natural gas is considered as potential fuel as the hydrogen fuel cell based CHP systems are rarely used. UK government incentives for CHP systems are also considered as the added benefit. Results show that CHP requires a significant initial investment in return it can reduce the annual energy bill significantly. Results show that an investment may be paid back in 7 years. After the back period, CHP can run for about 3 years as most of the CHP manufacturers provide 10-year warranty.

Keywords: combined heat and power, clean energy, hydrogen fuel cell, economic analysis of CHP, zero emission

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Authors: Aishvarya Gupta, Keerthana Anand, Sasirekha Rengaraj, Latha Chathurvedula

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Introduction: Advances in assisted reproductive technology and increase in the proportion of infertile couples have both contributed to the steep increase in the incidence of twin pregnancies in past decades. Maternal and perinatal complications are higher in twins than in singleton pregnancies. Studies comparing the maternal and perinatal outcomes of ART twin pregnancies versus spontaneously conceived twin pregnancies report heterogeneous results making it unclear whether the complications are due to twin gestation per se or because of assisted reproductive techniques. The present study aims to compare both maternal and perinatal outcomes in twin pregnancies which are spontaneously conceived and after assisted conception methods, so that targeted steps can be undertaken in order to improve maternal and perinatal outcome of twins. Objectives: To study perinatal and maternal outcome in twin pregnancies conceived spontaneously as well as with assisted methods and compare the outcomes between the two groups. Setting: Women delivering at JIPMER (tertiary care institute), Pondicherry. Population: 380 women with twin pregnancies who delivered in JIPMER between June 2015 and March 2017 were included in the study. Methods: The study population was divided into two cohorts – one conceived by spontaneous conception and other by assisted reproductive methods. Association of various maternal and perinatal outcomes with the method of conception was assessed using chi square test or Student's t test as appropriate. Multiple logistic regression analysis was done to assess the independent association of assisted conception with maternal outcomes after adjusting for age, parity and BMI. Multiple logistic regression analysis was done to assess the independent association of assisted conception with perinatal outcomes after adjusting for age, parity, BMI, chorionicity, gestational age at delivery and presence of hypertension or gestational diabetes in the mother. A p value of < 0.05 was considered as significant. Result: There was increased proportion of women with GDM (21% v/s 4.29%) and premature rupture of membranes (35% v/s 22.85%) in the assisted conception group and more anemic women in the spontaneous group (71.27% v/s 55.1%). However assisted conception per se increased the incidence of GDM among twin gestations (OR 3.39, 95% CI 1.34 – 8.61) and did not influence any of the other maternal outcomes. Among the perinatal outcomes, assisted conception per se increased the risk of having very preterm (<32 weeks) neonates (OR 3.013, 95% CI 1.432 – 6.337). The mean birth weight did not significantly differ between the two groups (p = 0.429). Though there were higher proportion of babies admitted to NICU in the assisted conception group (48.48% v/s 36.43%), assisted conception per se did not increase the risk of admission to NICU (OR 1.23, 95% CI 0.76 – 1.98). There was no significant difference in perinatal mortality rates between the two groups (p = 0.829). Conclusion: Assisted conception per se increases the risk of developing GDM in women with twin gestation and increases the risk of delivering very preterm babies. Hence measures should be taken to ensure appropriate screening methods for GDM and suitable neonatal care in such pregnancies.

Keywords: assisted conception, maternal outcomes, perinatal outcomes, twin gestation

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Authors: Rajni Singh, Rakesh Mishra, Mukunda Upadhyay

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India is among the nations born out of partition that led to one of the greatest forced migrations that marked the past century. The Indian subcontinent got partitioned into two nation-states, namely India and Pakistan. This led to an unexampled mass displacement of people accounting for about 20 million in the subcontinent as a whole. This exemplifies the socio-political version of displacement, but there are other identified reasons leading to human displacement viz., natural calamities, development projects and people-trafficking and smuggling. Although forced migrations are rare in incidence, they are mostly region-specific and a very less percentage of population appears to be affected by it. However, when this percentage is transcripted in terms of volume, the real impact created by such migration can be realized. Forced migration is thus an issue related to the lives of many people and requires to be addressed with proper intervention. Forced or involuntary migration decimates peoples' assets while taking from them their most basic resources and makes them migrate without planning and intention. This in most cases proves to be a burden on the destination resources. Thus, the question related to their security concerns arise profoundly with regard to the protection and safeguards to these migrants who need help at the place of destination. This brings the human security dimension of forced migration into picture. The present study is an analysis of a sample of 1501 persons by NSSO in India (National Sample Survey Organisation), which identifies three reasons for forced migration- natural disaster, social/political problem and displacement by development projects. It was observed that, of the total forced migrants, about 4/5th comprised of the internally displaced persons. However, there was a huge inflow of such migrants to the country from across the borders also, the major contributing countries being Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Gulf countries and Nepal. Among the three reasons for involuntary migration, social and political problem is the most prominent in displacing huge masses of population; it is also the reason where the share of international migrants to that of internally displaced is higher compared to the other two factors /reasons. Second to political and social problems, natural calamities displaced a high portion of the involuntary migrants. The present paper examines the factors which increase people's vulnerability to forced migration. On perusing the background characteristics of the migrants it was seen that those who were economically weak and socially fragile are more susceptible to migration. Therefore, getting an insight about this fragile group of society is required so that government policies can benefit these in the most efficient and targeted manner.

Keywords: involuntary migration, displacement, natural disaster, social and political problem

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Authors: Libor Zachoval, Daire O Broin, Oisin Cawley

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E-learning platforms, such as Blackboard have two major shortcomings: limited data capture as a result of the limitations of SCORM (Shareable Content Object Reference Model), and lack of incorporation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning algorithms which could lead to better course adaptations. With the recent development of Experience Application Programming Interface (xAPI), a large amount of additional types of data can be captured and that opens a window of possibilities from which online education can benefit. In a corporate setting, where companies invest billions on the learning and development of their employees, some learner behaviours can be troublesome for they can hinder the knowledge development of a learner. Behaviours that hinder the knowledge development also raise ambiguity about learner’s knowledge mastery, specifically those related to gaming the system. Furthermore, a company receives little benefit from their investment if employees are passing courses without possessing the required knowledge and potential compliance risks may arise. Using xAPI and rules derived from a state-of-the-art review, we identified three learner behaviours, primarily related to guessing, in a corporate compliance course. The identified behaviours are: trying each option for a question, specifically for multiple-choice questions; selecting a single option for all the questions on the test; and continuously repeating tests upon failing as opposed to going over the learning material. These behaviours were detected on learners who repeated the test at least 4 times before passing the course. These findings suggest that gauging the mastery of a learner from multiple-choice questions test scores alone is a naive approach. Thus, next steps will consider the incorporation of additional data points, knowledge estimation models to model knowledge mastery of a learner more accurately, and analysis of the data for correlations between knowledge development and identified learner behaviours. Additional work could explore how learner behaviours could be utilised to make changes to a course. For example, course content may require modifications (certain sections of learning material may be shown to not be helpful to many learners to master the learning outcomes aimed at) or course design (such as the type and duration of feedback).

Keywords: artificial intelligence, corporate e-learning environment, knowledge maintenance, xAPI

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Authors: Vinti Davar

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Background: Worldwide, at least 2.8 million people die each year as a result of being overweight or obese, and 35.8 million (2.3%) of global DALYs are caused by overweight or obesity. Obesity is acknowledged as one of the burning public health problems reducing life expectancy and quality of life. The body composition analysis of the university population is essential in assessing the nutritional status, as well as the risk of developing diseases associated with abnormal body fat content so as to make nutritional recommendations. Objectives: The main aim was to determine the prevalence of obesity and overweight in University students using Anthropometric analysis and BIA methods Material and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 283 university students participated. The body composition analysis was undertaken by using mainly: i) Anthropometric Measurement: Height, Weight, BMI, waist circumference, hip circumference and skin fold thickness, ii) Bio-electrical impedance was used for analysis of body fat mass, fat percent and visceral fat which was measured by Tanita SC-330P Professional Body Composition Analyzer. The data so collected were compiled in MS Excel and analyzed for males and females using SPSS 16.Results and Discussion: The mean age of the male (n= 153) studied subjects was 25.37 ±2.39 year and females (n=130) was 22.53 ±2.31. The data of BIA revealed very high mean fat per cent of the female subjects i.e. 30.3±6.5 per cent whereas mean fat per cent of the male subjects was 15.60±6.02 per cent indicating a normal body fat range. The findings showed high visceral fat of both males (12.92±3.02) and females (16.86±4.98). BMI, BF% and WHR were higher among females, and BMI was higher among males. The most evident correlation was verified between BF% and WHR for female students (r=0.902; p<0.001). The correlation of BFM and BF% with thickness of triceps, sub scapular and abdominal skin folds and BMI was significant (P<0.001). Conclusion: The studied data made it obvious that there is a need to initiate lifestyle changing strategies especially for adult females and encourage them to improve their dietary intake to prevent incidence of non communicable diseases due to obesity and high fat percentage.

Keywords: anthropometry, bioelectrical impedance, body fat percentage, obesity

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Authors: Mehwish Asghar

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Breast Cancer (BC) is a common type of cancer among women. Its screening is usually performed using different imaging modalities such as magnetic resonance imaging, mammogram, X-ray, CT, etc. Among these modalities’ mammogram is considered a powerful tool for diagnosis and screening of breast cancer. Sophisticated machine learning approaches have shown promising results in complementing human diagnosis. Generally, machine learning methods can be divided into two major classes: one is Radiomics analysis (RA), where image features are extracted manually; and the other one is the concept of convolutional neural networks (CNN), in which the computer learns to recognize image features on its own. This research aims to improve the incidence of early detection, thus reducing the mortality rate caused by breast cancer through the latest advancements in computer science, in general, and machine learning, in particular. It has also been aimed to ease the burden of doctors by improving and automating the process of breast cancer detection. This research is related to a relative analysis of different techniques for the implementation of different models for detecting and classifying breast cancer. The main goal of this research is to provide a detailed view of results and performances between different techniques. The purpose of this paper is to explore the potential of a convolutional neural network (CNN) w.r.t feature extractor and as a classifier. Also, in this research, it has been aimed to add the module of Radiomics for comparison of its results with deep learning techniques.

Keywords: breast cancer (BC), machine learning (ML), convolutional neural network (CNN), radionics, magnetic resonance imaging, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Cecilia Obi Nja

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of virtual reality meditation on science education undergraduate students’ academic achievement. It was in two parts: it compared the impact of meditation via virtual reality against video, as accessed by students’ mean scores. Secondly, the study examined the usefulness of meditation on the overall well-being of students through video or virtual reality. All the science education undergraduate students of the University of Calabar constituted the population of the study. Two research questions and hypotheses were formulated to guide the study. The study employed a pretest–posttest design with the participants being randomly assigned to two groups. The sample size was 120. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) results showed that virtual reality meditation had a significantly higher benefit than video meditation. The results of the analysis also indicated that undergraduate students with both meditation techniques employed had decreased pre-exam anxiety. It was concluded that virtual reality meditation plays a major role in students’ academic achievement and test anxiety levels.

Keywords: consciousness, academic achievement, meditation, anxiety

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Authors: Joo Min Kim, Dongyoun Shin

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The project Future Station (FS) seek for a deeper understanding of metro station. The main idea of the project is enhancing the underground environment by combining new architectural design with IoT technology. This research shows the understanding of the metro environment giving references regarding traditional design approaches and IoT combined space design. Based on the analysis, this research presents design alternatives in two metro stations those are chosen for a testbed. It also presents how the FS platform giving a response to travelers and deliver the benefit to metro operators. In conclusion, the project describes methods to build future metro service and platform that understand traveler’s intentions and giving appropriate services back for enhancing travel experience. It basically used contemporary technology such as smart sensing grid, big data analysis, smart building, and machine learning technology.

Keywords: future station, digital lifestyle experience, sustainable metro, smart metro, smart city

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Authors: Chandragouda R. Patil, K. S. Jagadeesh, S. D. Kalolgi

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Biofertilizers containing live microbial cells can mobilize one or more nutrients to plants when applied to either seed or rhizosphere. They form an integral part of nutrient management strategies for sustainable production of agricultural crops. Annually, about 22 tons of lignite-based biofertilizers are being produced and supplied to farmers at the Institute of Organic Farming, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad, Karnataka state India. Although carrier based biofertilizers are common, they have shorter shelf life, poor quality, high contamination, unpredictable field performance and high cost of solid carriers. Hence, liquid formulations are being developed to increase their efficacy and broaden field applicability. An attempt was made to develop liquid formulation of strains of Rhizobium NC-92 (Groundnut), Azospirillum ACD15 both nitrogen-fixing biofertilizers and Pseudomonas striata an efficient P-solubilizing bacteria (PSB). Different concentration of amendments such as additives (glycerol and polyethylene glycol), adjuvants (carboxyl methyl cellulose), gum arabica (GA), surfactant (polysorbate) and trehalose specifically for Azospirillum were found essential. Combinations of formulations of Rhizobium and PSB for groundnut and Azospirillum and PSB for maize were evaluated under field conditions to determine the optimum level of inoculum required. Each biofertilizer strain was inoculated at the rate of 2, 4, 8 ml per kg of seeds and the efficacy of each formulation both individually and in combinations was evaluated against the lignite-based formulation at the rate of 20 g each per kg seeds and a un-inoculated set was included to compare the inoculation effect. The field experiment had 17 treatments in three replicates and the best level of inoculum was decided based on net returns and cost: benefit ratio. In peanut, the combination of 4 ml of Rhizobium and 2 ml of PSB resulted in the highest net returns and higher cost to benefit ratio of 1:2.98 followed by treatment with a combination of 2 ml per kg each of Rhizobium and PSB with a B;C ratio of 1:2.84. The benefits in terms of net returns were to the extent of 16 percent due to inoculation with lignite based formulations while it was up to 48 percent due to the best combination of liquid biofertilizers. In maize combination of liquid formulations consisting of 4 ml of Azospirillum and 2 ml of PSB resulted in the highest net returns; about 53 percent higher than the un-inoculated control and 20 percent higher than the treatment with lignite based formulation. In both the crops inoculation with lignite based formulations significantly increased the net returns over un-inoculated control while levels higher or lesser than 4 ml of Rhizobium and Azospirillum and higher or lesser than 2 ml of PSB were not economical and hence not optimal for these two crops.

Keywords: Rhizobium, Azospirillum, phosphate solubilizing bacteria, liquid formulation, benefit-cost ratio

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Authors: Ayalkibet Mekonnen, Adane Abebe

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In hydrological cycle there are many water-related human interventions that modify the natural systems. Rainwater harvesting is one such intervention that involves harnessing of water in the upstream. Water harvesting used in upstream prevents water runoff on downstream mainly disturbance on biodiversity and ecosystems. The main objectives of the study are to assess the effects of water harvesting technologies on downstream water availability in the Woreda. To address the above problem, SWAT model, cost-benefit ratio and optimal control approach was used to analyse the hydrological and socioeconomic impact and tradeoffs on water availability of the community, respectively. The downstream impacts of increasing water consumption in the upstream rain-fed areas of the Bilate and Shala Catchment are simulated using the semi-distributed SWAT model. The two land use scenarios tested at sub basin levels (1) conventional land use represents the current land use practice (Agri-CON) and (2) in-field rainwater harvesting (IRWH), improving soil water availability through rainwater harvesting land use scenario. The simulated water balance results showed that the highest peak mean monthly direct flow obtained from Agri-CON land use (127.1 m3/ha), followed by Agri-IRWH land use (11.5 mm) and LULC 2005 (90.1 m3/ha). The Agri-IRWH scenario reduced direct flow by 10% compared to Agri-CON and more groundwater flow contributed by Agri-IRWH (190 m3/ha) than Agri-CON (125 m3/ha). The overall result suggests that the water yield of the Woreda may not be negatively affected by the Agri-IRWH land use scenario. The technology in the Woreda benefited positively having an average benefit cost ratio of 4.2. Water harvesting for domestic use was not optimal that the value of the water per demand harvested was less than the amount of water needed. Storage tanks, series of check dams, gravel filled dams are an alternative solutions for water harvesting.

Keywords: water harvesting, SWAT model, land use scenario, Agri-CON, Agri-IRWH, trade off, benefit cost ratio

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Authors: Harman Jaggi, David Steinsaltz, Shripad Tuljapurkar

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Understanding the effect of fluctuations on populations is crucial in the context of increasing habitat fragmentation, climate change, and biological invasions, among others. Migration in response to environmental disturbances enables populations to escape unfavorable conditions, benefit from new environments and thereby ride out fluctuations in variable environments. Would populations disperse if there is no uncertainty? Karlin showed in 1982 that when sub-populations experience distinct but fixed growth rates at different sites, greater mixing of populations will lower the overall growth rate relative to the most favorable site. Here we ask if and when environmental variability favors migration over no-migration. Specifically, in random environments, would a small amount of migration increase the overall long-run growth rate relative to the zero migration case? We use analysis and simulations to show how long-run growth rate changes with migration rate. Our results show that when fitness (dis)advantages fluctuate over time across sites, migration may allow populations to benefit from variability. When there is one best site with highest growth rate, the effect of migration on long-run growth rate depends on the difference in expected growth between sites, scaled by the variance of the difference. When variance is large, there is a substantial probability of an inferior site experiencing higher growth rate than its average. Thus, a high variance can compensate for a difference in average growth rates between sites. Positive correlations in growth rates across sites favor less migration. With multiple sites and large fluctuations, the length of shortest cycle (excursion) from the best site (on average) matters, and we explore the interplay between excursion length, average differences between sites and the size of fluctuations. Our findings have implications for conservation biology: even when there are superior sites in a sea of poor habitats, variability and habitat quality across space may be key to determining the importance of migration.

Keywords: migration, variable-environments, random, dispersal, fluctuations, habitat-quality

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Authors: Ruhugül Özge Gemici

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The need for open space, which is an important problem especially since the 19th century, has become more important in today's conditions. The most important factor in increasing the livability of cities is the open and green areas. Parks are the most important of the urban open and green space elements that provide the most benefit to users. In this context, the user satisfaction of the Japanese Kyoto Park, which is the subject of the research, was evaluated in the light of the questionnaires. With this analysis, the satisfaction level of the user using the park was determined. Suggestions have been developed for the park to be handled and regulated according to the user requests and requirements changing over time.

Keywords: landscape, landscape design, open and green spaces, sculpture

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Authors: Sajia Islam, T. Tahsina, S. Raihana, M. M. Rahman, Q. S. Rahman, T. M. Huda, S. E. Arifeen, M. J. Dibley

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Early neonatal sepsis accounts for more than two-thirds of all deaths in the first year of life. This study assessed the counseling during antenatal, perinatal, post natal periods and its association with possible sepsis in rural Bangladesh. Method: Data were collected from a large community-based trial in Bangladesh where pregnant women were enrolled from 2013-2015 covering 29,497 newborns. Sepsis was defined using neonatal danger signs reported by 'The Young-Infants Clinical Science Study Group. 'Result: Signs of sepsis was found among 15% of the neonates. Neonatal sepsis was higher among those who did not receive advice on TT vaccinations (15.4% vs. 11%, p < 0.05) and danger signs (14.8% vs. 12.8%, p < 0.05) during pregnancy. Advice on delivering in well-lit place was significantly associated with lower incidence of sepsis (12.7% vs. 14.8% p < 0.05). Sepsis was lower among neonates whose mothers were counseled on immediate newborn care for bathing after 3 days of delivery (13.4% vs. 15.2% p=0), breastfeeding within 1hr of birth (13.82 % vs. 15.28% p=0), apply nothing on the cord (11.54 vs. 15.06 p=0), immediate drying of child (12.62% vs. 14.89%, p=0). Neonatal sepsis was lower among children whose mothers received 2-4 advice [OR=0.91(95% CI: 0.85-0.97)] compared to neonates whose mothers received only 1 or none. Overall, children to mothers who received ≥ 5 advice had lowest incidence of sepsis [OR=0.83 (95% CI: 0.71-0.97)] Conclusion: Advice on antenatal, prenatal and post natal is significantly reduced with early newborn sepsis. Further research is required to identify specific type of counseling messages that translate into practices and reduce pathways towards early-newborn morbidities.

Keywords: ante natal care, counseling, neonatal sepsis, post natal care

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Authors: Stephanie Cheng, Benjamin Poh, Vivyan Tay, Sachin Mathur

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Aim: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a worldwide pandemic affecting 500 million people. It is known to be associated with increased susceptibility to soft tissue infections (STI). Despite being a major public health burden, the literature relating the effects of DM and the presentation, severity and healing of STIs in general surgical patients remain limited. Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of all patients admitted with STI in a tertiary teaching hospital over a 12-month period. Patient demographics and surgical outcomes were collected and analyzed. Results: During the study period, 1059 patients were admitted for STIs, of which 936 (88%) required surgical intervention. Diabetic patients were presented with a higher body-mass index (BMI) (28 vs 26), larger abscess size (24 vs 14 cm²) and a longer length of stay (LOS)(4.4 days vs 2.9 days). They also underwent a higher proportion of wide debridement as well as application of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) (42% vs 35%). More diabetic patients underwent subsequent re-operation within the same sitting (8 vs 4). There were no differences in re-admission rates within 30 days nor subsequent abscess formation in those followed for 6 months. Conclusion: The incidence of STIs among DM patients represents a significant disease burden; surgeons should consider intensive patient counseling and partnering with primary care providers in order to help reduce the incidence of future STI admissions based on lifestyle modification and glucose control.

Keywords: general surgery, emergency general surgery, acute care surgery, soft tissue infections, diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Umamaheswara Rao Jada, Susmita Mukhopadhyay

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In the present highly complex, dynamic and interdependent organizational environment, employees' ideas, opinions and suggestions which is technically referred to as ‘constructive employee voice’ is increasingly being recognized and valued. Literature has consistently demonstrated the relevance of leadership in employee voicing behavior, however the new form of leadership, ‘empowering leadership’ has not been given much attention. The study, therefore, devotes itself to the effort to explore the impact of this new form of leadership on employee voice behavior and the interplay with leader member exchange (LMX) and psychological safety as mediators in the same. The study utilizes structural equation modeling for analyzing the data collected from 310 Indian service industry employees through the questionnaire developed for the study. The findings of the study demonstrate the significant impact of empowering form of leadership on employees’ constructive voice behavior. Additionally, supporting results were observed for the mediating impact of leader member exchange (LMX) and psychological safety between empowering leadership and employees’ constructive voice behavior. The results of this study provide insights into the intervening mechanisms by linking leaders’ empowering behavior with employees’ constructive voice, while also highlighting the potential importance of LMX relationship in organizations and psychological safety in the context of constructive voice behavior. The study brings forth the relevance of the new form of leadership, ‘empowering leadership’ for fostering the better exchange of ideas, opinions, and suggestions between leaders and followers which tend to benefit the organization, providing empirical evidence of the sequential mediation of LMX and psychological safety. The piece of work is assumed to benefit the leaders in organizations by providing them the basis for adopting empowering form of leadership in light of results displayed.

Keywords: constructive voice, empowering leadership, leader member exchange (LMX), psychological safety, sequential mediation, structural equation modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: O. A. Olagunju, S. L. Kiambi

Abstract:

Municipal Plastic Wastes (MPW) can have several negative effects on the environment, and this is causing a growing concern which requires urgent intervention. Addressing these environmental challenges by proffering alternative end-of-life (EOL) techniques for MPW treatment is thus critical for designing and implementing effective long-term remedies. In this study, the environmental implications of several MPW treatment technologies were assessed using life cycle assessment (LCA). Our focus was on four potential waste treatment scenarios for MPW: waste disposal via landfill, waste incineration, waste regeneration, and reusability of recycled waste. The findings show that recycling has a greater benefit over landfilling and incineration methods. The most important environmental benefit comes from the recycling of plastics, which may serve as reliable source materials for environmentally friendly products. Following a holistic evaluation, five major factors that influence the overall impact on the environment were outlined: the mass fraction in waste, the recycling rate, the conversion efficiency, the waste-to-energy conversion rate, and the type of energy which can be utilized from incineration generated energy

Keywords: end-of-life, incineration, landfill, life cycle assessment, municipal plastic waste, recycling, waste-to-energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Basma Hassabo, Sarah Ahmed, Aisha Hameed

Abstract:

Aims and Objectives: To determine the incidence of maternal mortality amongst pregnant women with sickle cell disease (SCD) in the United Kingdom and to determine exact cause of death in these women. Background: SCD is caused by the ‘sickle’ gene and is characterized by episodes of severe bone pain and other complications like acute chest syndrome, chronic pulmonary hypertension, stroke, retinopathy, chronic renal failure, hepato-splenic crises, avascular bone necrosis, sepsis and leg ulcers. SCD is a continual cause of maternal mortality and fetal complications, and it comprises 1.5% of all Direct and Indirect deaths in the UK. Sepsis following premature rupture of membranes with ascending infection, post-partum infection and pre-labour overwhelming septic shock is one of its leading causes of death. Over the last fifty years of maternal mortality reports in UK, between 1 to 4 pregnant women died in each triennium. Material and Method: This is a retrospective study that involves pregnant women who died from SCD complications in the UK between 1952-2012. Data were collected from the UK Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Death and its causes between 1952–2012. Prior to 1985, exact cause of death in this cohort was not recorded. Results: 33 deaths reported between 1964 and 1984. 17 deaths were reported due to sickle cell disease between 1985 and 2012. Five women in this group died of sickle cell crisis, one woman had liver sequestration crisis, two women died of venous thromboembolism, two had myocardial fibrosis and three died of sepsis. Remaining women died of amniotic fluid embolism, SUDEP, myocardial ischemia and intracranial haemorrhage. Conclusion: The leading causes of death in sickle cell sick pregnant women are sickle cell crises, sepsis, venous thrombosis and thromboembolism. Prenatal care for women with SCD should be managed by a multidisciplinary team that includes an obstetrician, nutritionist, primary care physician, and haematologist. In every sick Sickle Cell woman Sickle Cell crises should be on the top of the list of differential diagnosis. Aggressive treatment of complications with low threshold to commence broad-spectrum antibiotics and LMWH contribute to better outcomes.

Keywords: incidence, maternal mortality, sickle cell disease (SCD), uk

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Meghan E. Murray, Carri R. Tolmie

Abstract:

This study aims to identify potential factors and widely applicable best practices that can contribute to improving corporate social responsibility (CSR) and corporate performance for firms by exploring the relationship between transformational leadership, spiritual intelligence, and emotional intelligence. Corporate social responsibility is when companies are cognizant of the impact of their actions on the economy, their communities, the environment, and the world as a whole while executing business practices accordingly. The prevalence of CSR has continuously strengthened over the past few years and is now a common practice in the business world, with such efforts coinciding with what stakeholders and the public now expect from corporations. Because of this, it is extremely important to be able to pinpoint factors and best practices that can improve CSR within corporations. One potential factor that may lead to improved CSR is spiritual intelligence (SQ), or the ability to recognize and live with a purpose larger than oneself. Spiritual intelligence is a measurable skill, just like emotional intelligence (EQ), and can be improved through purposeful and targeted coaching. This research project consists of two studies. Study 1 is a case study comparison of a benefit corporation and a non-benefit corporation. This study will examine the role of SQ and EQ as moderators in the relationship between the transformational leadership of employees within each company and the perception of each firm’s CSR and corporate performance. Project methodology includes creating and administering a survey comprised of multiple pre-established scales on transformational leadership, spiritual intelligence, emotional intelligence, CSR, and corporate performance. Multiple regression analysis will be used to extract significant findings from the collected data. Study 2 will dive deeper into spiritual intelligence itself by analyzing pre-existing data and identifying key relationships that may provide value to companies and their stakeholders. This will be done by performing multiple regression analysis on anonymized data provided by Deep Change, a company that has created an advanced, proprietary system to measure spiritual intelligence. Based on the results of both studies, this research aims to uncover best practices, including the unique contribution of spiritual intelligence, that can be utilized by organizations to help enhance their corporate social responsibility. If it is found that high spiritual and emotional intelligence can positively impact CSR effort, then corporations will have a tangible way to enhance their CSR: providing targeted employees with training and coaching to increase their SQ and EQ.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, CSR, corporate performance, emotional intelligence, EQ, spiritual intelligence, SQ, transformational leadership

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Ode Kenneth Ogbu

Abstract:

This study was designed as a survey to investigate the incidence of use and abuse of drug as a social problem among the Nigeria youths in the secondary schools in urban centres of Benue state. 500 SS 3 and fresh secondary school graduates in remedial science class of Benue State University Makurdi with mean age of 16.8 were randomly sampled for the study. An instrument called drug use and abuse perception questionnaire (DAPQ) with a reliability coefficient of 74 were administered to the students. Only 337 copies of the questionnaire were properly completed and returned which reduced the sample size of 337. The data were subjected to factor analysis. X2 statistic and frequency distribution using split half method. The result of the analysis showed that: the DAPQ yield seven baseline factors responsible for drug use and abuse; there was appreciable evidence that the study subjects used drugs (42.1%); alcohol topped the list of the drugs consumed; most students use their pocket money to buy drugs; drugs were purchased from unconventional, hidden places and 13 out of the 20 items of DAPQ were perceived as significant factors in drug use and abuse. The paper recommends proper intervention of government, parents and NGO’S among students to reduce cases of drug abuse.

Keywords: drug abuse, psychology, psychiatry, students

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Ahmad Haidar

Abstract:

The rapid adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology holds unforeseen risks like privacy violation, unemployment, and algorithmic bias, triggering research institutions, governments, and companies to develop principles of AI ethics. The extensive and diverse literature on AI lacks an analysis of the evolution of principles developed in recent years. There are two fundamental purposes of this paper. The first is to provide insights into how the principles of AI ethics have been changed recently, including concepts like risk management and public participation. In doing so, a NOISE (Needs, Opportunities, Improvements, Strengths, & Exceptions) analysis will be presented. Second, offering a framework for building Ethical AI linked to sustainability. This research adopts an explorative approach, more specifically, an inductive approach to address the theoretical gap. Consequently, this paper tracks the different efforts to have “trustworthy AI” and “ethical AI,” concluding a list of 12 documents released from 2017 to 2022. The analysis of this list unifies the different approaches toward trustworthy AI in two steps. First, splitting the principles into two categories, technical and net benefit, and second, testing the frequency of each principle, providing the different technical principles that may be useful for stakeholders considering the lifecycle of AI, or what is known as sustainable AI. Sustainable AI is the third wave of AI ethics and a movement to drive change throughout the entire lifecycle of AI products (i.e., idea generation, training, re-tuning, implementation, and governance) in the direction of greater ecological integrity and social fairness. In this vein, results suggest transparency, privacy, fairness, safety, autonomy, and accountability as recommended technical principles to include in the lifecycle of AI. Another contribution is to capture the different basis that aid the process of AI for sustainability (e.g., towards sustainable development goals). The results indicate data governance, do no harm, human well-being, and risk management as crucial AI for sustainability principles. This study’s last contribution clarifies how the principles evolved. To illustrate, in 2018, the Montreal declaration mentioned eight principles well-being, autonomy, privacy, solidarity, democratic participation, equity, and diversity. In 2021, notions emerged from the European Commission proposal, including public trust, public participation, scientific integrity, risk assessment, flexibility, benefit and cost, and interagency coordination. The study design will strengthen the validity of previous studies. Yet, we advance knowledge in trustworthy AI by considering recent documents, linking principles with sustainable AI and AI for sustainability, and shedding light on the evolution of guidelines over time.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, AI for sustainability, declarations, framework, regulations, risks, sustainable AI

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Nasrin Galehdar, Sedigheh Nadri, Elham Nazari, Isan Darvishi, Abouzar Mohammadi

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Background and aim:Nausea and vomiting are complications of cesarean section. The pharmacological and non-pharmacological approaches were applied to decrease postoperative nausea and vomiting. The aim of the present study was to compare the effects of Ondansetron and acupressure on postoperative nausea and vomiting in patients undergone an elective cesarean section. Materials and method: The study was designed as a randomized clinical trial. A total of 120 patients were allocated to two equal groups. Four mgs of Ondansetron was administered for the Ondansetron group after clamping the umbilical cord. The acupressure bracelets were fastened in the PC6 point for acupressure group for 15 minutes. The patients were monitored in terms of incidence, severity, and episodes of nausea and vomiting. The data obtained were analyzed by SPSS software version 18 with a significance level of 0.05. Results: There was no significant statistical difference in nausea severity among the groups intra-operatively, in the recovery and surgery wards. The incidence and episodes of vomiting were significantly higher in patients undergone acupressure intra-operatively, in the recovery and surgery wards (P< 0.05). No significant effect of acupressure was reported in reducing postoperative nausea and vomiting. Conclusion: No significant effect of acupressure was reported in reducing postoperative nausea and vomiting. Thus, it is suggested to perform the studies with larger size and comparing the effects of acupressure with other antiemetic medications.

Keywords: ondansetron, acupressure, nausea, vomiting

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Sonia A. Stoica, Lexi Frankel, Amalia Ardeljan, Selena Rashid, Ali Yasback, Omar Rashid

Abstract:

Introduction Enterococcus is a vast genus of lactic acid bacteria, gram-positivecocci species. They are common commensal organisms in the intestines of humans: E. faecalis (90–95%) and E. faecium (5–10%). Rare groups of infections can occur with other species, including E. casseliflavus, E. gallinarum, and E. raffinosus. The most common infections caused by Enterococcus include urinary tract infections, biliary tract infections, subacute endocarditis, diverticulitis, meningitis, septicemia, and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. The treatment for sensitive strains of these bacteria includes ampicillin, penicillin, cephalosporins, or vancomycin, while the treatment for resistant strains includes daptomycin, linezolid, tygecycline, or streptogramine. Enterococcus faecalis CECT7121 is an encouraging nominee for being considered as a probiotic strain. E. faecalis CECT7121 enhances and skews the profile of cytokines to the Th1 phenotype in situations such as vaccination, anti-tumoral immunity, and allergic reactions. It also enhances the secretion of high levels of IL-12, IL-6, TNF alpha, and IL-10. Cytokines have been previously associated with the development of cancer. The intention of this study was to therefore evaluate the correlation between Enterococcus infections and incidence of bone carcinoma. Methods A retrospective cohort study (2010-2019) was conducted through a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) compliant national database and conducted using International Classification of Disease (ICD) 9th and 10th codes for bone carcinoma diagnosis in a previously Enterococcus infected population. Patients were matched for age range and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Access to the database was granted by Holy Cross Health for academic research. Chi-squared test was used to assess statistical significance. Results A total number of 17,056 patients was obtained in Enterococcus infected group as well as in the control population (matched by Age range and CCI score). Subsequent bone carcinoma development was seen at a rate of 1.07% (184) in the Enterococcal infectious group and 3.42% (584) in the control group, respectively. The difference was statistically significant by p= 2.2x10-¹⁶, Odds Ratio = 0.355 (95% CI 0.311 - 0.404) Treatment for enterococcus infection was analyzed and controlled for in both enterococcus infected and noninfected populations. 78 out of 6,624 (1.17%) patients with a prior enterococcus infection and treated with antibiotics were compared to 202 out of 6,624 (3.04%) patients with no history of enterococcus infection (control) and received antibiotic treatment. Both populations subsequently developed bone carcinoma. Results remained statistically significant (p<2.2x10-), Odds Ratio=0.456 (95% CI 0.396-0.525). Conclusion This study shows a statistically significant correlation between Enterococcus infection and a decreased incidence of bone carcinoma. The immunologic response of the organism to Enterococcus infection may exert a protecting mechanism from developing bone carcinoma. Further exploration is needed to identify the potential mechanism of Enterococcus in reducing bone carcinoma incidence.

Keywords: anti-tumoral immunity, bone carcinoma, enterococcus, immunologic response

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Najeebullah Soomro, Habib Noorbhai, Mariam Soomro, Ross Sanders

Abstract:

The demands on cricketers are increasing with more matches being played in a shorter period of time with a greater intensity. A ten year report on injury incidence for Australian elite cricketers between the 2000- 2011 seasons revealed an injury incidence rate of 17.4%.1. In the 2009–10 season, 24 % of Australian fast bowlers missed matches through injury. 1 Injury rates are even higher in junior cricketers with an injury incidence of 25% or 2.9 injuries per 100 player hours reported. 2 Traditionally, injury surveillance has relied on the use of paper based forms or complex computer software. 3,4 This makes injury reporting laborious for the staff involved. The purpose of this presentation is to describe a smartphone based mobile application as a means of improving injury surveillance in cricket. Methods: The researchers developed CricPredict mobile App for the Android platforms, the world’s most widely used smartphone platform. It uses Qt SDK (Software Development Kit) as IDE (Integrated Development Environment). C++ was used as the programming language with the Qt framework, which provides us with cross-platform abilities that will allow this app to be ported to other operating systems (iOS, Mac, Windows) in the future. The wireframes (graphic user interface) were developed using Justinmind Prototyper Pro Edition Version (Ver. 6.1.0). CricPredict enables recording of injury and training status conveniently and immediately. When an injury is reported automated follow-up questions include site of injury, nature of injury, mechanism of injury, initial treatment, referral and action taken after injury. Direct communication with the player then enables assessment of severity and diagnosis. CricPredict also allows the coach to maintain and track each player’s attendance at matches and training session. Workload data can also be recorded by either the player or coach by recording the number of balls bowled or played in a day. This is helpful in formulating injury rates and time lost due to injuries. All the data are stored at a secured password protected data server. Outcomes and Significance: Use of CricPredit offers a simple, user friendly tool for the coaching or medical staff associated with teams to predict, record and report injuries. This system will assist teams to capture injury data with ease thus allowing better understanding of injuries associated with cricket and potentially optimize the performance of such cricketers.

Keywords: injury, cricket, surveillance, smartphones, mobile

Procedia PDF Downloads 452

Authors: Armenia Nazar, Sally M. J. Anggelya, Rose Dinda

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Hypertension prevalence in Indonesian has increased from time to time since 2013, especially in women. This cross-sectional analysis study was made to observe the incidence of hypertension on the reproductive women (20-49 years old) with several risk factors who use contraceptive pills. Data was collected from June - October 2016 in the Andalas Public Health Center, East Padang District, Indonesia. An amount of 167 respondents who were taken using consecutive sampling technique were participate in this study. Data of social demography, contraceptive used, duration of use, hypertension risk factors (age, family history, central obesity, body mass index, physical activity, and stress) were collected and analyzed statistically using Chi-Square analysis. Significant was taken at p < 0.05. Results showed that the woman with contraceptive pill was tent to get hypertension (OR = 3,90 and p < 0,001). In addition, woman with a family history OR of 6,77 (p = 0,09), mild physical activity OR of 3,67 (p = 0,33), moderate physical activity OR of 3,33 (p = 0,16), and stressed OR of 5.11 (p = 0.18). These indicated that the contraceptive pill user is 3.9 times more risk to develop hypertension than non-users, especially one with a family history of hypertension. Other risk factors were not associated with hypertension risk in these sex productive women.

Keywords: hypertension, oral contraceptive, sex productive woman, risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Brittany Joi B. Kirsch

Abstract:

Textbooks carry a crucial role in imparting ideologies that stimulate inclusivity and social diversity. In the Philippines, a law on inclusive education (IE) for differently-abled learners has recently been signed in order to ensure their rights to quality and IE are protected and upheld (Republic Act No. 11650, 2022). With the presence of ableism in textbooks, the promotion of IE may be challenged. A considerable amount of research has been done on disability representation and ableism in foreign countries; however, none, to the extent of the researcher’s knowledge, has been conducted on ableist ideologies in primary education English language textbooks in the Philippines. Hence, this paper aims to investigate the negotiation of ableist ideologies in primary education English language textbooks in the Philippines. Utilizing Fairclough’s (1995) three-dimensional model of critical discourse analysis (CDA) as the framework, six prescribed primary education English language textbooks from different grade levels were analyzed to examine instances of ableism in the texts. To further support the analysis of the study, supplemental data were gathered from the accounts of six public elementary school English language teachers. Findings reveal that the textbooks contain ableist ideologies with a limited representation of differently-abled people; by disclosing them as (1) invisible, (2) equipped with negative abilities, and (3) plagued with delicate health. By identifying ableist ideologies in textbooks, educational institutions and publishers may benefit in assessing and reforming instructional materials to resolve the presence of such ideologies, thereby abiding by the country’s law on IE and strengthening its overall implementation.

Keywords: textbooks, ideologies, inclusive education, critical discourse analysis, ableism

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Manit Pollar

Abstract:

Identifying the dengue epidemic periods early would be helpful to take necessary actions to prevent the dengue outbreaks. Providing an accurate prediction on dengue epidemic seasons will allow sufficient time to take the necessary decisions and actions to safeguard the situation for local authorities. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model on number of dengue incidences in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Southern Thailand using time series analysis. We develop Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the monthly data collected between 2003-2011 and validated the models using data collected between January-September 2012. The result of this study revealed that the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,2,1)12 model closely described the trends and seasons of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat for the years between 2003-2011. The study showed that the one-step approach for predicting dengue incidences provided significantly more accurate predictions than the twelve-step approach. The model, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.

Keywords: SARIMA, time series model, dengue cases, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 344