Search results for: Monte Carlo simulations
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2177

Search results for: Monte Carlo simulations

1787 Large-Eddy Simulations for Aeronautical Systems

Authors: R. R. Mankbadi

Abstract:

There are several technologically-important flow situations in which there is a need to control the outcome of the fluid flow. This could include flow separation, drag, noise, as well as particulate separations, to list only a few. One possible approach is the passive control, in which the design geometry is changed. An alternative approach is the Active Flow Control (AFC) technology in which an actuator is embedded in the flow field to change the outcome. Examples of AFC are pulsed jets, synthetic jets, plasma actuators, heating, and cooling, etc. In this work will present an overview of the development of this field. Some examples will include Airfoil Noise Suppression: Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) is used to simulate the effect of synthetic jet actuator on controlling the far field sound of a transitional airfoil. The results show considerable suppression of the noise if the synthetic jet is operated at frequencies. Mixing Enhancement and suppression: Results will be presented to show that imposing acoustic excitations at the nozzle exit can lead to enhancement or reduction of the jet plume mixing. In vertical takeoff of Aircrafts or in Space Launch, we will present results on the effects of water injection on reducing noise, and on protecting the structure and payload from fatigue damage. Other applications will include airfoil-gust interaction and propulsion systems optimizations.

Keywords: aeroacoustics, flow control, aerodynamics, large eddy simulations

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1786 Uncertainty Evaluation of Erosion Volume Measurement Using Coordinate Measuring Machine

Authors: Mohamed Dhouibi, Bogdan Stirbu, Chabotier André, Marc Pirlot

Abstract:

Internal barrel wear is a major factor affecting the performance of small caliber guns in their different life phases. Wear analysis is, therefore, a very important process for understanding how wear occurs, where it takes place, and how it spreads with the aim on improving the accuracy and effectiveness of small caliber weapons. This paper discusses the measurement and analysis of combustion chamber wear for a small-caliber gun using a Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM). Initially, two different NATO small caliber guns: 5.56x45mm and 7.62x51mm, are considered. A Micura Zeiss Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) equipped with the VAST XTR gold high-end sensor is used to measure the inner profile of the two guns every 300-shot cycle. The CMM parameters, such us (i) the measuring force, (ii) the measured points, (iii) the time of masking, and (iv) the scanning velocity, are investigated. In order to ensure minimum measurement error, a statistical analysis is adopted to select the reliable CMM parameters combination. Next, two measurement strategies are developed to capture the shape and the volume of each gun chamber. Thus, a task-specific measurement uncertainty (TSMU) analysis is carried out for each measurement plan. Different approaches of TSMU evaluation have been proposed in the literature. This paper discusses two different techniques. The first is the substitution method described in ISO 15530 part 3. This approach is based on the use of calibrated workpieces with similar shape and size as the measured part. The second is the Monte Carlo simulation method presented in ISO 15530 part 4. Uncertainty evaluation software (UES), also known as the Virtual Coordinate Measuring Machine (VCMM), is utilized in this technique to perform a point-by-point simulation of the measurements. To conclude, a comparison between both approaches is performed. Finally, the results of the measurements are verified through calibrated gauges of several dimensions specially designed for the two barrels. On this basis, an experimental database is developed for further analysis aiming to quantify the relationship between the volume of wear and the muzzle velocity of small caliber guns.

Keywords: coordinate measuring machine, measurement uncertainty, erosion and wear volume, small caliber guns

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1785 Experimental and Finite Element Forming Limit Diagrams for Interstitial Free Steels

Authors: Basavaraj Vadavadagi, Satishkumar Shekhawat

Abstract:

Interstitial free steels posses better formability and have many applications in automotive industries. Forming limit diagrams (FLDs) indicate the formability of materials which can be determined by experimental and finite element (FE) simulations. FLDs were determined experimentally by LDH test, utilizing optical strain measurement system for measuring the strains in different width specimens and by FE simulations in Interstitial Free (IF) and Interstitial Free High Strength (IFHS) steels. In this study, the experimental and FE simulated FLDs are compared and also the stress based FLDs were investigated.

Keywords: forming limit diagram, limiting dome height, optical strain measurement, interstitial

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1784 Simulation of an Active Controlled Vibration Isolation System for Astronaut’s Exercise Platform

Authors: Shield B. Lin, Sameer Abdali

Abstract:

Computer simulations were performed using MATLAB/Simulink for a vibration isolation system for astronaut’s exercise platform. Simulation parameters initially were based on an on-going experiment in a laboratory at NASA Johnson Space Center. The authors expanded later simulations to include other parameters. A discrete proportional-integral-derivative controller with a low-pass filter commanding a linear actuator served as the active control unit to push and pull a counterweight in balancing the disturbance forces. A spring-damper device is used as an optional passive control unit. Simulation results indicated such design could achieve near complete vibration isolation with small displacements of the exercise platform.

Keywords: control, counterweight, isolation, vibration

Procedia PDF Downloads 126
1783 A Study of Female Casino Dealers' Job Stress and Job Satisfaction: The Case of Macau

Authors: Xinrong Zong, Tao Zhang

Abstract:

Macau is known as the Oriental Monte Carlo and its economy depends on gambling heavily. The dealer is the key position of the gambling industry, at the end of the fourth quarter of 2015, there were over 24,000 dealers among the 56,000 full-time employees in gambling industry. More than half of dealers were female. The dealer is also called 'Croupier', the main responsibilities of them are shuffling, dealing, processing chips, rolling dice game and inspecting play. Due to the limited land and small population of Macao, the government has not allowed hiring foreign domestic dealers since Macao developed temporary gambling industry. Therefore, local dealers enjoy special advantages but also bear the high stresses from work. From the middle of last year, with the reduced income of gambling, and the decline of mainland gamblers as well as VIP lounges, the working time of dealers increased greatly. Thus, many problems occurred in this condition, such as the rise of working pressures, psychological pressures and family-responsibility pressures, which may affect job satisfaction as well. Because of the less research of dealer satisfaction, and a lack of standing on feminine perspective to analyze female dealers, this study will focus on investigating the relationship between working pressure and job satisfaction from feminine view. Several issues will be discussed specifically: firstly, to understand current situation of the working pressures and job satisfactions of female dealers in different ages; secondly, to research if there is any relevance between working pressures and job satisfactions of female dealers in different ages; thirdly, to find out the relationship between dealers' working pressures and job satisfactions in different ages. This paper combined qualitative approach with quantitative approach selected samples by convenient sampling. The research showed the female dealers from diverse ages have different kinds of working pressures; second, job satisfactions of the female dealers in different ages are dissimilar; moreover, there is negative correlation between working pressure and job satisfaction of female dealer in different ages' groups; last but not the least, working pressure has a significant negative impact on job satisfaction. The research result will provide a reference value for the Macau gambling business. It is a pattern to improve dealers' working environment, to increase employees' job satisfaction, as well as to offer tourists a better service, which can help to attract more and more visitors from a good image of Macau gaming and tourism.

Keywords: female dealers, job satisfaction, working pressure, Macau

Procedia PDF Downloads 281
1782 Stabilization of the Bernoulli-Euler Plate Equation: Numerical Analysis

Authors: Carla E. O. de Moraes, Gladson O. Antunes, Mauro A. Rincon

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to study the internal stabilization of the Bernoulli-Euler equation numerically. For this, we consider a square plate subjected to a feedback/damping force distributed only in a subdomain. An algorithm for obtaining an approximate solution to this problem was proposed and implemented. The numerical method used was the Finite Difference Method. Numerical simulations were performed and showed the behavior of the solution, confirming the theoretical results that have already been proved in the literature. In addition, we studied the validation of the numerical scheme proposed, followed by an analysis of the numerical error; and we conducted a study on the decay of the energy associated.

Keywords: Bernoulli-Euler plate equation, numerical simulations, stability, energy decay, finite difference method

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1781 Evaluation of Practicality of On-Demand Bus Using Actual Taxi-Use Data through Exhaustive Simulations

Authors: Jun-ichi Ochiai, Itsuki Noda, Ryo Kanamori, Keiji Hirata, Hitoshi Matsubara, Hideyuki Nakashima

Abstract:

We conducted exhaustive simulations for data assimilation and evaluation of service quality for various setting in a new shared transportation system, called SAVS. Computational social simulation is a key technology to design recent social services like SAVS as new transportation service. One open issue in SAVS was to determine the service scale through the social simulation. Using our exhaustive simulation framework, OACIS, we did data-assimilation and evaluation of effects of SAVS based on actual tax-use data at Tajimi city, Japan. Finally, we get the conditions to realize the new service in a reasonable service quality.

Keywords: on-demand bus sytem, social simulation, data assimilation, exhaustive simulation

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1780 Wave-Assisted Flapping Foil Propulsion: Flow Physics and Scaling Laws From Fluid-Structure Interaction Simulations

Authors: Rajat Mittal, Harshal Raut, Jung Hee Seo

Abstract:

Wave-assisted propulsion (WAP) systems convert wave energy into thrust using elastically mounted hydrofoils. We employ sharp-interface immersed boundary simulations to examine the effect of two key parameters on the flow physics, the fluid-structure interaction, as well as thrust performance of these systems - the stiffness of the torsional spring and the location of the rotational center. The variation in spring stiffness leads to different amplitude of pitch motion, phase difference with respect to heaving motion and thrust coefficient and we show the utility of ‘maps’ of energy exchange between the flow and the hydrofoil system, as a way to understand and predict this behavior. The Force Partitioning Method (FPM) is used to decompose the pressure forces into individual components and understand the mechanism behind increase in thrust. Next, a scaling law is presented for the thrust coefficient generated by heaving and pitching foil. The parameters within the scaling law are calculated based on direct-numerical simulations based parametric study utilized to generate the energy maps. The predictions of the proposed scaling law are then compared with those of a similar model from the literature, showing a noticeable improvement in the prediction of the thrust coefficient.

Keywords: propulsion, flapping foils, hydrodynamics, wave power

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1779 Use of Large Eddy Simulations Model to Simulate the Flow of Heavy Oil-Water-Air through Pipe

Authors: Salim Al Jadidi, Shian Gao, Shivananda Moolya

Abstract:

Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) technique coupled with Sub-Grid-Scale (SGS) model is used to study the flow behavior of heavy oil-water-air flow in a horizontal pipe by adapting ANSYS Fluent CFD software. The technique suitable for the transport of water-lubricated heavy viscous oil in a horizontal pipe is the Core Annular flow (CAF) technique. The present study focuses on the numerical study of CAF adapting Large Eddy Simulations (LES). The basic objective of the present study is to gain a basic knowledge of the flow behavior of heavy oil using turbulent CAF through a conventional horizontal pipe. This work also focuses on the success and applicability of LES. The simulation of heavy oil-water-air three-phase flow and two-phase flow of heavy oil–water in a conventional horizontal pipe is performed using ANSYS Fluent 16.2 software. The influence of three-phase heavy oil-water air flow in a selected pipe is affected by gravity. It is also observed from the result that the air phase and the variation in the temperature impact the behavior of the annular stream and pressure drop. Some results obtained during the study are validated with the results gained from part of the literature experiments and simulations, and the results show reasonably good agreement between the studies.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, gravity, heavy viscous oil, three-phase flow

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1778 Time-Domain Simulations of the Coupled Dynamics of Surface Riding Wave Energy Converter

Authors: Chungkuk Jin, Moo-Hyun Kim, HeonYong Kang

Abstract:

A surface riding (SR) wave energy converter (WEC) is designed and its feasibility and performance are numerically simulated by the author-developed floater-mooring-magnet-electromagnetics fully-coupled dynamic analysis computer program. The biggest advantage of the SR-WEC is that the performance is equally effective even in low sea states and its structural robustness is greatly improved by simply riding along the wave surface compared to other existing WECs. By the numerical simulations and actuator testing, it is clearly demonstrated that the concept works and through the optimization process, its efficiency can be improved.

Keywords: computer simulation, electromagnetics fully-coupled dynamics, floater-mooring-magnet, optimization, performance evaluation, surface riding, WEC

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1777 The Effect of Internal Electrical Ion Mobility on Molten Salts through Atomistic Simulations

Authors: Carlos F. Sanz-Navarro, Sonia Fereres

Abstract:

Binary and ternary mixtures of molten salts are excellent thermal energy storage systems and have been widely used in commercial tanks both in nuclear and solar thermal applications. However, the energy density of the commercially used mixtures is still insufficient, and therefore, new systems based on latent heat storage (or phase change materials, PCM) are currently being investigated. In order to shed some light on the macroscopic physical properties of the molten salt phases, knowledge of the microscopic structure and dynamics is required. Several molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have been performed to model the thermal behavior of (Li,K)2CO3 mixtures. Up to this date, this particular molten salt mixture has not been extensively studied but it is of fundamental interest for understanding the behavior of other commercial salts. Molten salt diffusivities, the internal electrical ion mobility, and the physical properties of the solid-liquid phase transition have been calculated and compared to available data from literature. The effect of anion polarization and the application of a strong external electric field have also been investigated. The influence of electrical ion mobility on local composition is explained through the Chemla effect, well known in electrochemistry. These results open a new way to design optimal high temperature energy storage materials.

Keywords: atomistic simulations, thermal storage, latent heat, molten salt, ion mobility

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1776 A Systematic Approach for Analyzing Multiple Cyber-Physical Attacks on the Smart Grid

Authors: Yatin Wadhawan, Clifford Neuman, Anas Al Majali

Abstract:

In this paper, we evaluate the resilience of the smart grid system in the presence of multiple cyber-physical attacks on its distinct functional components. We discuss attack-defense scenarios and their effect on smart grid resilience. Through contingency simulations in the Network and PowerWorld Simulator, we analyze multiple cyber-physical attacks that propagate from the cyber domain to power systems and discuss how such attacks destabilize the underlying power grid. The analysis of such simulations helps system administrators develop more resilient systems and improves the response of the system in the presence of cyber-physical attacks.

Keywords: smart grid, gas pipeline, cyber- physical attack, security, resilience

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1775 Metal-Based Deep Eutectic Solvents for Extractive Desulfurization of Fuels: Analysis from Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Authors: Aibek Kukpayev, Dhawal Shah

Abstract:

Combustion of sour fuels containing high amount of sulfur leads to the formation of sulfur oxides, which adversely harm the environment and has a negative impact on human health. Considering this, several legislations have been imposed to bring down the sulfur content in fuel to less than 10 ppm. In recent years, novel deep eutectic solvents (DESs) have been developed to achieve deep desulfurization, particularly to extract thiophenic compounds from liquid fuels. These novel DESs, considered as analogous to ionic liquids are green, eco-friendly, inexpensive, and sustainable. We herein, using molecular dynamic simulation, analyze the interactions of metal-based DESs with model oil consisting of thiophenic compounds. The DES used consists of polyethylene glycol (PEG-200) as a hydrogen bond donor, choline chloride (ChCl) or tetrabutyl ammonium chloride (TBAC) as a hydrogen bond acceptor, and cobalt chloride (CoCl₂) as metal salt. In particular, the combination of ChCl: PEG-200:CoCl₂ at a ratio 1:2:1 and the combination of TBAC:PEG-200:CoCl₂ at a ratio 1:2:0.25 were simulated, separately, with model oil consisting of octane and thiophenes at 25ᵒC and 1 bar. The results of molecular dynamics simulations were analyzed in terms of interaction energies between different components. The simulations revealed a stronger interaction between DESs/thiophenes as compared with octane/thiophenes, suggestive of an efficient desulfurization process. In addition, our analysis suggests that the choice of hydrogen bond acceptor strongly influences the efficiency of the desulfurization process. Taken together, the results also show the importance of the metal ion, although present in small amount, in the process, and the role of the polymer in desulfurization of the model fuel.

Keywords: deep eutectic solvents, desulfurization, molecular dynamics simulations, thiophenes

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1774 Russian pipeline natural gas export strategy under uncertainty

Authors: Koryukaeva Ksenia, Jinfeng Sun

Abstract:

Europe has been a traditional importer of Russian natural gas for more than 50 years. In 2021, Russian state-owned company Gazprom supplied about a third of all gas consumed in Europe. The Russia-Europe mutual dependence in terms of natural gas supplies has been causing many concerns about the energy security of the two sides for a long period of time. These days the issue has become more urgent than ever considering recent Russian invasion in Ukraine followed by increased large-scale geopolitical conflicts, making the future of Russian natural gas supplies and global gas markets as well highly uncertain. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to get insight into the possible futures of Russian pipeline natural gas exports by a scenario planning method based on Monte-Carlo simulation within LUSS model framework, and propose Russian pipeline natural gas export strategies based on the obtained scenario planning results. The scenario analysis revealed that recent geopolitical disputes disturbed the traditional, longstanding model of Russian pipeline gas exports, and, as a result, the prospects and the pathways for Russian pipeline gas on the world markets will differ significantly from those before 2022. Specifically, our main findings show, that (i) the events of 2022 generated many uncertainties for the long-term future of Russian pipeline gas export perspectives on both western and eastern supply directions, including geopolitical, regulatory, economic, infrastructure and other uncertainties; (ii) according to scenario modelling results, Russian pipeline exports will face many challenges in the future, both on western and eastern directions. A decrease in pipeline gas exports will inevitably affect country’s natural gas production and significantly reduce fossil fuel export revenues, jeopardizing the energy security of the country; (iii) according to proposed strategies, in order to ensure the long-term stable export supplies in the changing environment, Russia may need to adjust its traditional export strategy by performing export flows and product diversification, entering new markets, adapting its contracting mechanism, increasing competitiveness and gaining a reputation of a reliable gas supplier.

Keywords: Russian natural gas, Pipeline natural gas, Uncertainty, Scenario simulation, Export strategy

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1773 Relating Interface Properties with Crack Propagation in Composite Laminates

Authors: Tao Qu, Chandra Prakash, Vikas Tomar

Abstract:

The interfaces between organic and inorganic phases in natural materials have been shown to be a key factor contributing to their high performance. This work analyzes crack propagation in a 2-ply laminate subjected to uniaxial tensile mode-I crack propagation loading that has laminate properties derived based on biological material constituents (marine exoskeleton- chitin and calcite). Interfaces in such laminates are explicitly modeled based on earlier molecular simulations performed by authors. Extended finite element method and cohesive zone modeling based simulations coupled with theoretical analysis are used to analyze crack propagation. Analyses explicitly quantify the effect that interface mechanical property variation has on the delamination as well as the transverse crack propagation in examined 2-ply laminates.

Keywords: chitin, composites, interfaces, fracture

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1772 A Simulation for Behaviors of Preys to Avoid Pursuit of Predator

Authors: Jae Moon Lee

Abstract:

Generally the predator will continuously aim to attack the prey, while the prey will maintain a safe distance from the predator in order to avoid it . If the predator has enough energy to chase a certain amount of distance, it will begin to attack the prey. The prey needs to approach the predator for various reasons such as getting food. However, it will also try to keep a safe distance because of the threat of predators. The safe distance is dependent on the amount of the energy of predator, and the behaviors of prey is changed according to the size of the safe distance. This paper is to simulate the behaviors of preys to avoid the pursuit of predator based on the safe distance. The simulations will be executed experimentally under single predator and multiple preys. The results of the simulations show that the amount of energy of predator gives a great influence on the behavior of the prey.

Keywords: predator, prey, energy, safe distance, simulation

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1771 Reduction of Plutonium Production in Heavy Water Research Reactor: A Feasibility Study through Neutronic Analysis Using MCNPX2.6 and CINDER90 Codes

Authors: H. Shamoradifar, B. Teimuri, P. Parvaresh, S. Mohammadi

Abstract:

One of the main characteristics of Heavy Water Moderated Reactors is their high production of plutonium. This article demonstrates the possibility of reduction of plutonium and other actinides in Heavy Water Research Reactor. Among the many ways for reducing plutonium production in a heavy water reactor, in this research, changing the fuel from natural Uranium fuel to Thorium-Uranium mixed fuel was focused. The main fissile nucleus in Thorium-Uranium fuels is U-233 which would be produced after neutron absorption by Th-232, so the Thorium-Uranium fuels have some known advantages compared to the Uranium fuels. Due to this fact, four Thorium-Uranium fuels with different compositions ratios were chosen in our simulations; a) 10% UO2-90% THO2 (enriched= 20%); b) 15% UO2-85% THO2 (enriched= 10%); c) 30% UO2-70% THO2 (enriched= 5%); d) 35% UO2-65% THO2 (enriched= 3.7%). The natural Uranium Oxide (UO2) is considered as the reference fuel, in other words all of the calculated data are compared with the related data from Uranium fuel. Neutronic parameters were calculated and used as the comparison parameters. All calculations were performed by Monte Carol (MCNPX2.6) steady state reaction rate calculation linked to a deterministic depletion calculation (CINDER90). The obtained computational data showed that Thorium-Uranium fuels with four different fissile compositions ratios can satisfy the safety and operating requirements for Heavy Water Research Reactor. Furthermore, Thorium-Uranium fuels have a very good proliferation resistance and consume less fissile material than uranium fuels at the same reactor operation time. Using mixed Thorium-Uranium fuels reduced the long-lived α emitter, high radiotoxic wastes and the radio toxicity level of spent fuel.

Keywords: Heavy Water Reactor, Burn up, Minor Actinides, Neutronic Calculation

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1770 Updating Stochastic Hosting Capacity Algorithm for Voltage Optimization Programs and Interconnect Standards

Authors: Nicholas Burica, Nina Selak

Abstract:

The ADHCAT (Automated Distribution Hosting Capacity Assessment Tool) was designed to run Hosting Capacity Analysis on the ComEd system via a stochastic DER (Distributed Energy Resource) placement on multiple power flow simulations against a set of violation criteria. The violation criteria in the initial version of the tool captured a limited amount of issues that individual departments design against for DER interconnections. Enhancements were made to the tool to further align with individual department violation and operation criteria, as well as the addition of new modules for use for future load profile analysis. A reporting engine was created for future analytical use based on the simulations and observations in the tool.

Keywords: distributed energy resources, hosting capacity, interconnect, voltage optimization

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1769 The Use of Simulation Programs of Leakage of Harmful Substances for Crisis Management

Authors: Jiří Barta

Abstract:

The paper deals with simulation programs of spread of harmful substances. Air pollution has a direct impact on the quality of human life and environmental protection is currently a very hot topic. Therefore, the paper focuses on the simulation of release of harmful substances. The first part of article deals with perspectives and possibilities of implementation outputs of simulations programs into the system which is education and of practical training of the management staff during emergency events in the frame of critical infrastructure. The last part shows the practical testing and evaluation of simulation programs. Of the tested simulations software been selected Symos97. The tool offers advanced features for setting leakage. Gradually allows the user to model the terrain, location, and method of escape of harmful substances.

Keywords: Computer Simulation, Symos97, Spread, Simulation Software, Harmful Substances

Procedia PDF Downloads 265
1768 Cost Overruns in Mega Projects: Project Progress Prediction with Probabilistic Methods

Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

Abstract:

Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

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1767 A Heteroskedasticity Robust Test for Contemporaneous Correlation in Dynamic Panel Data Models

Authors: Andreea Halunga, Chris D. Orme, Takashi Yamagata

Abstract:

This paper proposes a heteroskedasticity-robust Breusch-Pagan test of the null hypothesis of zero cross-section (or contemporaneous) correlation in linear panel-data models, without necessarily assuming independence of the cross-sections. The procedure allows for either fixed, strictly exogenous and/or lagged dependent regressor variables, as well as quite general forms of both non-normality and heteroskedasticity in the error distribution. The asymptotic validity of the test procedure is predicated on the number of time series observations, T, being large relative to the number of cross-section units, N, in that: (i) either N is fixed as T→∞; or, (ii) N²/T→0, as both T and N diverge, jointly, to infinity. Given this, it is not expected that asymptotic theory would provide an adequate guide to finite sample performance when T/N is "small". Because of this, we also propose and establish asymptotic validity of, a number of wild bootstrap schemes designed to provide improved inference when T/N is small. Across a variety of experimental designs, a Monte Carlo study suggests that the predictions from asymptotic theory do, in fact, provide a good guide to the finite sample behaviour of the test when T is large relative to N. However, when T and N are of similar orders of magnitude, discrepancies between the nominal and empirical significance levels occur as predicted by the first-order asymptotic analysis. On the other hand, for all the experimental designs, the proposed wild bootstrap approximations do improve agreement between nominal and empirical significance levels, when T/N is small, with a recursive-design wild bootstrap scheme performing best, in general, and providing quite close agreement between the nominal and empirical significance levels of the test even when T and N are of similar size. Moreover, in comparison with the wild bootstrap "version" of the original Breusch-Pagan test our experiments indicate that the corresponding version of the heteroskedasticity-robust Breusch-Pagan test appears reliable. As an illustration, the proposed tests are applied to a dynamic growth model for a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Keywords: cross-section correlation, time-series heteroskedasticity, dynamic panel data, heteroskedasticity robust Breusch-Pagan test

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1766 Simulations of Cryogenic Cavitation of Low Temperature Fluids with Thermodynamics Effects

Authors: A. Alhelfi, B. Sunden

Abstract:

Cavitation in cryogenic liquids is widely present in contemporary science. In the current study, we re-examine a previously validated acoustic cavitation model which was developed for a gas bubble in liquid water. Furthermore, simulations of cryogenic fluids including the thermal effect, the effect of acoustic pressure amplitude and the frequency of sound field on the bubble dynamics are presented. A gas bubble (Helium) in liquids Nitrogen, Oxygen and Hydrogen in an acoustic field at ambient pressure and low temperature is investigated numerically. The results reveal that the oscillation of the bubble in liquid Hydrogen fluctuates more than in liquids Oxygen and Nitrogen. The oscillation of the bubble in liquids Oxygen and Nitrogen is approximately similar.

Keywords: cryogenic liquids, cavitation, rocket engineering, ultrasound

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1765 A Finite Element Based Predictive Stone Lofting Simulation Methodology for Automotive Vehicles

Authors: Gaurav Bisht, Rahul Rathnakumar, Ravikumar Duggirala

Abstract:

Predictive simulations are one of the key focus areas in safety-critical industries such as aerospace and high-performance automotive engineering. The stone-chipping study is one such effort taken up by the industry to predict and evaluate the damage caused due to gravel impact on vehicles. This paper describes a finite elements based method that can simulate the ejection of gravel chips from a vehicle tire. The FE simulations were used to obtain the initial ejection velocity of the stones for various driving conditions using a computational contact mechanics approach. To verify the accuracy of the tire model, several parametric studies were conducted. The FE simulations resulted in stone loft velocities ranging from 0–8 m/s, regardless of tire speed. The stress on the tire at the instant of initial contact with the stone increased linearly with vehicle speed. Mesh convergence studies indicated that a highly resolved tire mesh tends to result in better momentum transfer between the tire and the stone. A fine tire mesh also showed a linearly increasing relationship between the tire forward speed and stone lofting speed, which was not observed in coarser meshes. However, it also highlighted a potential challenge, in that the ejection velocity vector of the stone seemed to be sensitive to the mesh, owing to the FE-based contact mechanical formulation of the problem.

Keywords: abaqus, contact mechanics, foreign object debris, stone chipping

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1764 A Numerical Study of Force-Based Boundary Conditions in Multiparticle Collision Dynamics

Authors: Arturo Ayala-Hernandez, Humberto Hijar

Abstract:

We propose a new alternative method for imposing fluid-solid boundary conditions in simulations of Multiparticle Collision Dynamics. Our method is based on the introduction of an explicit potential force acting between the fluid particles and a surface representing a solid boundary. We show that our method can be used in simulations of plane Poiseuille flows. Important quantities characterizing the flow and the fluid-solid interaction like the slip coefficient at the solid boundary and the effective viscosity of the fluid, are measured in terms of the set of independent parameters defining the numerical implementation. We find that our method can be used to simulate the correct hydrodynamic flow within a wide range of values of these parameters.

Keywords: Multiparticle Collision Dynamics, fluid-solid, boundary conditions, molecular dynamics

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1763 Fuzzy Decision Support System for Human-Realistic Overtaking in Railway Traffic Simulations

Authors: Tomáš Vyčítal

Abstract:

In a simulation model of a railway system it is important, besides other crucial algorithms, to have correct behaviour of train overtaking in stochastic conditions. This problem is being addressed in many simulation tools focused on railway traffic, however these are not very human-realistic. The goal of this paper is to create a more human-realistic overtaking decision support system for the use in railway traffic simulations. A fuzzy system has been chosen for this task as fuzzy systems are well-suited for human-like decision making. The fuzzy system designed takes into account timetables, train positions, delays and buffer times as inputs and provides an instruction to overtake or not overtake.

Keywords: decision-making support, fuzzy systems, simulation, railway, transport

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1762 Numerical Solutions of Fractional Order Epidemic Model

Authors: Sadia Arshad, Ayesha Sohail, Sana Javed, Khadija Maqbool, Salma Kanwal

Abstract:

The dynamical study of the carriers play an essential role in the evolution and global transmission of infectious diseases and will be discussed in this study. To make this approach novel, we will consider the fractional order model which is generalization of integer order derivative to an arbitrary number. Since the integration involved is non local therefore this property of fractional operator is very useful to study epidemic model for infectious diseases. An extended numerical method (ODE solver) is implemented on the model equations and we will present the simulations of the model for different values of fractional order to study the effect of carriers on transmission dynamics. Global dynamics of fractional model are established by using the reproduction number.

Keywords: Fractional differential equation, Numerical simulations, epidemic model, transmission dynamics

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1761 Development and Validation of Thermal Stability in Complex System ABDM has two ASIC by NISA and COMSOL Tools

Authors: A. Oukaira, A. Lakhssassi, O. Ettahri

Abstract:

To make a good thermal management in an ABDM (Adapter Board Detector Module) card, we must first control temperature and its gradient from the first step in the design of integrated circuits ASIC of our complex system. In this paper, our main goal is to develop and validate the thermal stability in order to get an idea of the flow of heat around the ASIC in transient and thus address the thermal issues for integrated circuits at the ABDM card. However, we need heat sources simulations for ABDM card to establish its thermal mapping. This led us to perform simulations at each ASIC that will allow us to understand the thermal ABDM map and find real solutions for each one of our complex system that contains 36 ABDM map, taking into account the different layers around ASIC. To do a transient simulation under NISA, we had to build a function of power modulation in time TIMEAMP. The maximum power generated in the ASIC is 0.6 W. We divided the power uniformly in the volume of the ASIC. This power was applied for 5 seconds to visualize the evolution and distribution of heat around the ASIC. The DBC (Dirichlet Boundary conditions) method was applied around the ABDM at 25°C and just after these simulations in NISA tool we will validate them by COMSOL tool, wich is a numerical calculation software for a modular finite element for modeling a wide variety of physical phenomena characterizing a real problem. It will also be a design tool with its ability to handle 3D geometries for complex systems.

Keywords: ABDM, APD, thermal mapping, complex system

Procedia PDF Downloads 245
1760 Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis of Cyclone Separator Performance Using Discrete Phase Model

Authors: Sandeep Mohan Ahuja, Gulshan Kumar Jawa

Abstract:

Cyclone separators are crucial components in various industries tasked with efficiently separating particulate matter from gas streams. Achieving optimal performance hinges on a deep understanding of flow dynamics and particle behaviour within these separators. In this investigation, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations are conducted utilizing the Discrete Phase Model (DPM) to dissect the intricate flow patterns, particle trajectories, and separation efficiency within cyclone separators. The study delves into the influence of pivotal parameters like inlet velocity, particle size distribution, and cyclone geometry on separation efficiency. Through numerical simulations, a comprehensive comprehension of fluid-particle interaction phenomena within cyclone separators is attained, allowing for the assessment of solid collection efficiency across diverse operational conditions and geometrical setups. The insights gleaned from this study promise to advance our understanding of the complex interplay between fluid and particle within cyclone separators, thereby enabling optimization across a wide array of industrial applications. By harnessing the power of CFD simulations and the DPM, this research endeavours to furnish valuable insights for designing, operating, and evaluating the performance of cyclone separators, ultimately fostering greater efficiency and environmental sustainability within industrial processes.

Keywords: cyclone separator, computational fluid dynamics, enhancing efficiency, discrete phase model

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1759 Energy Storage Modelling for Power System Reliability and Environmental Compliance

Authors: Rajesh Karki, Safal Bhattarai, Saket Adhikari

Abstract:

Reliable and economic operation of power systems are becoming extremely challenging with large scale integration of renewable energy sources due to the intermittency and uncertainty associated with renewable power generation. It is, therefore, important to make a quantitative risk assessment and explore the potential resources to mitigate such risks. Probabilistic models for different energy storage systems (ESS), such as the flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and the compressed air energy storage (CAES) incorporating specific charge/discharge performance and failure characteristics suitable for probabilistic risk assessment in power system operation and planning are presented in this paper. The proposed methodology used in FESS modelling offers flexibility to accommodate different configurations of plant topology. It is perceived that CAES has a high potential for grid-scale application, and a hybrid approach is proposed, which embeds a Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) method in an analytical technique to develop a suitable reliability model of the CAES. The proposed ESS models are applied to a test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the energy storage technologies in system operation and planning, as well as to assess their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios. A comparative study considering various storage system topologies are also presented. The impacts of failure rates of the critical components of ESS on the expected state of charge (SOC) and the performance of the different types of ESS during operation are illustrated with selected studies on the test system. The paper also applies the proposed models on the test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the different ESS technologies and to evaluate their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios and system configurations. The conclusions drawn from the study results provide valuable information to help policymakers, system planners, and operators in arriving at effective and efficient policies, investment decisions, and operating strategies for planning and operation of power systems with large penetrations of renewable energy sources.

Keywords: flywheel energy storage, compressed air energy storage, power system reliability, renewable energy, system planning, system operation

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1758 OpenMP Parallelization of Three-Dimensional Magnetohydrodynamic Code FOI-PERFECT

Authors: Jiao F. Huang, Shi Chen, Shu C. Duan, Gang H. Wang

Abstract:

Due to its complex spatial structure as well as dynamic temporal evolution, an analytic solution of an X-pinch process is out of question, and numerical simulation becomes an important tool in X-pinch studies. Intrinsically, simulations of X-pinch are three-dimensional (3D) because of the specific structure of its load. Furthermore, in order to resolve both its μm-scales and ns-durations, fine spatial mesh grid and short time steps are usually adopted. The resulting large computational scales make the parallelization of codes a vital problem to be solved if any practical simulations are to be carried out. In this work, we report OpenMP parallelization of our 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code FOI-PERFECT. Results of test runs confirm that computational efficiency has been improved after parallelization, and both the sequential and parallel versions give the same physical results under the same initial conditions.

Keywords: MHD simulation, OpenMP, parallelization, X-pinch

Procedia PDF Downloads 318