Search results for: spatial rainfall prediction

Authors: Nadhia Maharany Siara, Muammal, Ilham Nurhakim, Rofifah Yusadi, M. Adie Putra Tanggara, I. Nyoman Suluh Wijaya

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Urbanization in urban areas has impact to the demand of land use for housing, and it began to occur development in the high-density area called Kampung Kota. Kampung Kota grows and develops without planning or organically. The existence of Kampung Kota, becoming identity of the city development in Indonesia, gives self-identity to the city planning in Indonesia, but the existence of Kampung Kota in the development of the city in Indonesia is often considered as a source of environment, health, and social problems. This cause negative perception about the sustainability of Kampung Kota. This research aims to identify morphology and sustainability level of Kampung Kota in Polehan Sub-District, Blimbing District, Malang City. So far, there have not been many studies that define sustainability of Kampung Kota especially from the perspective of Kampung Kota morphology as a part of urban housing areas. This research took place in in Polehan Sub-District, Blimbing District, Malang City which is one of the oldest Kampung Kota in Malang City. Identification of the sustainability level in this research is done by defining the morphology of Kampung Kota in Polehan Sub-District, Blimbing District, Malang City with a descriptive approach to the observation case (Kampung Kota Polehan Sub-District). After that, definition of sustainability level is defined by quantifying the spatial structure by using the criteria from the new urbanism model which consist of buildings and populations density, compactness, diversity and mix land uses and sustainable transportation. In this case, the use of new urbanism model approach is very appropriate. New Urbanism is a design-driven strategy that is based on traditional forms to minimize urban sprawl in the suburbs. The result obtained from this study is the hometown of the level of sustainability in Polehan Sub-District, Blimbing District, Malang City of 3.2 and can be considered to have a good sustainability.

Keywords: Kampung Kota, new urbanism model, sustainability, urban morphology

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Authors: Nguyen Chi Quang, Nguyen Duong Tri Nguyen

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This article is the first step to research and outline the structure of the geotechnical database in the geological survey of a power project; in the context of this report creating the database that has been carried out for the Bac Ai pumped storage hydropower project. For the purpose of providing a method of organizing and storing geological and topographic survey data and experimental results in a spatial database, the RockWorks software is used to bring optimal efficiency in the process of exploiting, using, and analyzing data in service of the design work in the power engineering consulting. Three-dimensional (3D) geotechnical models are created from the survey data: such as stratigraphy, lithology, porosity, etc. The results of the 3D geotechnical model in the case of Bac Ai pumped storage hydropower project include six closely stacked stratigraphic formations by Horizons method, whereas modeling of engineering geological parameters is performed by geostatistical methods. The accuracy and reliability assessments are tested through error statistics, empirical evaluation, and expert methods. The three-dimensional model analysis allows better visualization of volumetric calculations, excavation and backfilling of the lake area, tunneling of power pipelines, and calculation of on-site construction material reserves. In general, the application of engineering geological modeling makes the design work more intuitive and comprehensive, helping construction designers better identify and offer the most optimal design solutions for the project. The database always ensures the update and synchronization, as well as enables 3D modeling of geological and topographic data to integrate with the designed data according to the building information modeling. This is also the base platform for BIM & GIS integration.

Keywords: database, engineering geology, 3D Model, RockWorks, Bac Ai pumped storage hydropower project

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Authors: Sumayya S.

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Making cities adaptive and inclusive is one among the inherent goal and challenge for contemporary cities. This is a serious concern when the urban transformations occur in varying magnitude due to visible and invisible factors. One type of visibly invisible factor is ecommerce and its expanding operation that is understood to cause changes to the conventional spatial structure positively and negatively. With the continued growth in e-commerce activities and its future potential, market analysts, media, and even retailers have questioned the importance of a future presence of traditional Brick-and-mortar stores in cities as a critical element, with some even referring to the repeated announcement of the closure of some store chains as the end of the online shopping era. Essentially this raises the question of how adaptive and inclusive the cities are to the dynamics of transformative changes that are often unseen. People have become more comfortable with seating inside and door delivery systems, and this increased change in usage of public spaces, especially the commercial corridors. Through this research helped in presetting a new approach for planning and designing commercial activities centers and also presents the impact of ecommerce on the urban fabric, such as division and fragmentation of space, showroom syndrome, reconceptualization of space, etc., in a critical way. The changes are understood by analyzing the e-commerce logistic process. Based on the inferences reach at the conclusion for the need of an integrated approach in the field of planning and designing of public spaces for the sustainable omnichannel retailing. This study was carried out with the following objectives Monitoring the impact of e commerce on the traditional shopping space. Explore the new challenges and opportunities faced by the urban form. Explore how adaptive and inclusive our cities are to the dynamics of transformative changes caused by ecommerce.

Keywords: E-commerce, shopping streets, online environment, offline environment, shopping factors

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Authors: N. V. Klassen, A. A. Vasin, A. M. Likhter, K. A. Voronin, A. V. Mariasevskaya, I. M. Shmit’ko

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Regular patterning in mixtures of bio-polymers (chitosan and collagen) and nanoparticles in water suspensions has been found by means of optical microscopy. The patterning was created either by external electrical field of moderate amplitude (200–1000 v/cm) or spontaneously. Simultaneously with the patterning pushing out of water drops mixed with nanoparticles to the external regions was observed. These phenomena are explained by interactions of charged bio-polymers and nanoparticles with external and internal electrical fields as well as with the regions of decreased dielectrical permittivity surrounding nano-objects in water which possesses anomalously high dielectrical permittivity. Electrical charges of opposite signs of the nano-objects induce their mutual attraction whereas dipole moments created around these nano-objects by the electrical fields are pushing these particles to the regions with lower fields. Due to this reason, non-homogeneities of dielectrical permittivity around nano-objects immersed into water suspension induces mutual repulsion of the objects. This spatial decrease of this repulsion with the inter-particle distances is more sharp than that of the Coulomb attraction. So, at longer distances, the attractions are stronger whereas at shorter distances the repulsion prevails. At a certain distance these two forces compensate each other creating the equilibrium state of the mixture of nano-objects with opposite charges. When the groups of positive and negative nano-objects consist from identical particles, quasi-periodical pattern of the suspension is observed like mesoscopic two-dimensional super-crystal. These results can clarify the mechanisms of healing of internal organs with direct or alternative electrical fields.

Keywords: bio-polymers, chitosan, collagen, nanoparticles, Coulomb attraction, polarization repulsion, periodical patterning, electrical low frequency resonances

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Authors: Devinder Kaur Sugga, Ekamdeep Kaur, Jaspreet Kaur, C. Rajesh, Preeti Rajesh, Harsimran Kaur

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Withanolides are steroidal lactones and are highly oxygenated phytoconstituents that can be developed as potential anti-carcinogenic agents. The two main withanolides, namely Withaferin A and Withanolides D, have been extensively studied for their pharmacological activities. Both these withanolides are present in the Withania somnifera (WS) leaves belonging to the family Solanaceae, also known as “Indian ginseng .”In this study effects of WS leaf extract on the MCF7 breast cancer cell line were investigated by performing a 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyl tetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay to evaluate the cytotoxic effects and in vitro wound-healing assay to study the effect on cancer cell migration. Our data suggest WS extracts have cytotoxic effects and are effective anti-migrating agents and thus can be a source of potential candidates for the development of potential agents against metastasis. Thus, it can be a source of potential candidates for the development of potential agents against metastasis. Insight into these results, the in-silico approach to identify the possible protein targets interacting with withanolides was taken. Protein kinase C alpha (PKCα) was among the selected 5 top-ranked target proteins identified by the Swiss Target Prediction tool. PKCα is known to promote the growth and invasion of cancer cells and is being evaluated as a prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target in clinically aggressive tumors. Molecular docking of Withaferin A and Withanolides D was performed using AutoDock Vina. Both the bioactive compounds interacted with PKCα. The targets predicted using this approach will serve as leads for the possible therapeutic potential of withanolides, the bioactive ingredients of WS extracts, as anti-cancer drugs.

Keywords: withania somnifera, withaferin A, withanolides D, PKCα

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Authors: Naso Isaiah Thanavisuth

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Introduction: Medical cannabis can be used for treatment, including anorexia, pain, inflammation, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, cancer, and metabolic syndrome-related disorders. However, medical cannabis leads to adverse effects (AEs), which is delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC). In previous studies, the major of THC metabolism enzymes are CYP2C9. Especially, the variation of CYP2C9 gene consist of CYP2C9*2 on exon 3 (C430T) (Arg144Cys) and CYP2C9*3 on exon 7 (A1075C) (Ile359Leu) to decrease enzyme activity. Notwithstanding, there is no data describing whether the variant of CYP2C9 genes are a pharmacogenetics marker for prediction of THC-induced AEs in Thai patients. Objective: We want to investigate the association between CYP2C9 gene and THC-induced AEs in Thai patients. Method: We enrolled 39 Thai patients with medical cannabis treatment consisting of men and women who were classified by clinical data. The quality of DNA extraction was assessed by using NanoDrop ND-1000. The CYP2C9*2 and *3 genotyping were conducted using the TaqMan real time PCR assay (ABI, Foster City, CA, USA). Results: All Thai patients who received the medical cannabis consist of twenty four (61.54%) patients who were female and fifteen (38.46%) were male, with age range 27- 87 years. Moreover, the most AEs in Thai patients who were treated with medical cannabis between cases and controls were tachycardia, arrhythmia, dry mouth, and nausea. Particularly, thirteen (72.22%) medical cannabis-induced AEs were female and age range 33 – 69 years. In this study, none of the medical cannabis groups carried CYP2C9*2 variants in Thai patients. The CYP2C9*3 variants (*1/*3, intermediate metabolizer, IM) and (*3/*3, poor metabolizer, PM) were found, three of thirty nine (7.69%) and one of thirty nine (2.56%) , respectively. Conclusion: This is the first study to confirm the genetic polymorphism of CYP2C9 and medical cannabis-induced AEs in the Thai population. Although, our results indicates that there is no found the CYP2C9*2. However, the variation of CYP2C9 allele might serve as a pharmacogenetics marker for screening before initiating the therapy with medical cannabis for prevention of medical cannabis-induced AEs.

Keywords: CYP2C9, medical cannabis, adverse effects, THC, P450

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Authors: Abhimanyu Sharma

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India is known for its cultural heritage. As the country is rich in diversity along its length and breadth, the state of Jammu & Kashmir is world famous for the beautiful tourist destinations in the Kashmir region of the state. However, equally destined destinations are also located in Jammu region of the said state. For most of the time in last 50-60 years, the prime focus of development was centered around Kashmir region. But now due to an ever increase in globalization, the focus is decentralizing throughout the country. Pertinently, the potential of Jammu Region needs to be incorporated into the world tourist map in particular. One such spot in the Jammu region of the state is a place called ‘Mubarak Mandi’ – the palace with the royal residence of the Maharaja of Jammu & Kashmir from the Dogra Dynasty, is located in the heart of Jammu city (the winter capital of the state). Since the place is destined with a heritage importance but yet lack the supporting infrastructure to attract the national tourist in general and worldwide tourist at large. For such places, conservation and restoration of the existing structures are the potential tools to overcome the present limiting nature of the place. The rejuvenation of this place through potential and dynamic conservation techniques is targeted through this paper. This paper deals with developing and restoring the areas within the whole campus with appropriate building materials, conservation techniques, etc. to promote a great number of visitors by developing it into a prioritised tourist attraction point. Major thrust shall be on studying the criteria’s for developing the place considering the psychological effect needed to create a socially interactive environment. Additionally, thrust shall be on the spatial elements that will aid in creating a common platform for all kinds of tourists. Accordingly, different conservation guidelines (or model) shall be targeted through this paper so that this Jammu region shall also be an equally contributor to the tourist graph of the country as the Kashmir part is.

Keywords: conservation, heritage architecture, rejuvenating, restoration

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Authors: Anjali Singh, Ashwani Raju, Vandana Devi, Mohmad Mohsin Atique, Satyendra Singh, Munendra Singh

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India is the biggest consumer of mercury and, consequently, a major emitter too. The increasing mercury contamination in India’s water resources has gained widespread attention and, therefore, atmospheric deposition is of critical concern. However, little emphasis was placed on the role of precipitation in the aquatic mercury cycle of the Ganga Alluvial Plain which provides drinking water to nearly 7% of the world’s human population. A majority of the precipitation here occurs primarily in 10% duration of the year in the monsoon season. To evaluate the sources and transportation of mercury, water sample analysis has been conducted from two selected sites near Lucknow, which have a strong hydraulic gradient towards the river. 31 groundwater samples from Jehta village (26°55’15’’N; 80°50’21’’E; 119 m above mean sea level) and 31 river water samples from the Behta Nadi (a tributary of the Gomati River draining into the Ganga River) were collected during the monsoon season on every alternate day between 01 July to 30 August 2019. The total mercury analysis was performed by using Flow Injection Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS)-Mercury Hybride System, and daily rainfall data was collected from the India Meteorological Department, Amausi, Lucknow. The ambient groundwater and river-water concentrations were both 2-4 ng/L as there is no known geogenic source of mercury found in the area. Before the onset of the monsoon season, the groundwater and the river-water recorded mercury concentrations two orders of magnitude higher than the ambient concentrations, indicating the regional transportation of the mercury from the non-point source into the aquatic environment. Maximum mercury concentrations in groundwater and river-water were three orders of magnitude higher than the ambient concentrations after the onset of the monsoon season characterizing the considerable mobilization and redistribution of mercury by monsoonal precipitation. About 50% of both of the water samples were reported mercury below the detection limit, which can be mostly linked to the low intensity of precipitation in August and also with the dilution factor by precipitation. The highest concentration ( > 1200 ng/L) of mercury in groundwater was reported after 6-days lag from the first precipitation peak. Two high concentration peaks (>1000 ng/L) in river-water were separately correlated with the surface flow and groundwater outflow of mercury. We attribute the elevated mercury concentration in both of the water samples before the precipitation event to mercury originating from the extensive use of agrochemicals in mango farming in the plain. However, the elevated mercury concentration during the onset of monsoon appears to increase in area wetted with atmospherically deposited mercury, which migrated down from surface water to groundwater as downslope migration is a fundamental mechanism seen in rivers of the alluvial plain. The present study underscores the significance of monsoonal precipitation in the transportation of mercury to drinking water resources of the Ganga Alluvial Plain. This study also suggests that future research must be pursued for a better understand of the human health impact of mercury contamination and for quantification of the role of Ganga Alluvial Plain in the Global Mercury Cycle.

Keywords: drinking water resources, Ganga alluvial plain, india, mercury

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Authors: Arzu K. Kamberli, Tolga Ulusoy

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Technological developments and the resulting global communication have made the 21st century when large capitals are moved from one end to the other via a button. As a result, the flow of capital inflows has accelerated, and capital inflow has brought with it crisis-related infectiousness. Considering the irrational human behavior, the financial crisis in the world under the influence of the whole world has turned into the basic problem of the countries and increased the interest of the researchers in the reasons of the crisis and the period in which they lived. Therefore, the complex nature of the financial crises and its linearly unexplained structure have also been included in the new discipline, econophysics. As it is known, although financial crises have prediction mechanisms, there is no definite information. In this context, in this study, using the concept of electric field from the electrostatic part of physics, an early econophysical approach for global financial crises was studied. The aim is to define a model that can take place before the financial crises, identify financial fragility at an earlier stage and help public and private sector members, policy makers and economists with an econophysical approach. 2001 Turkey crisis has been assessed with data from Turkish Central Bank which is covered between 1992 to 2007, and for 2001 Argentina crisis, data was taken from IMF and the Central Bank of Argentina from 1997 to 2007. As an econophysical method, an analogy is used between the Gauss's law used in the calculation of the electric field and the forecasting of the financial crisis. The concept of Φ (Financial Flux) has been adopted for the pre-warning of the crisis by taking advantage of this analogy, which is based on currency movements and money mobility. For the first time used in this study Φ (Financial Flux) calculations obtained by the formula were analyzed by Matlab software, and in this context, in 2001 Turkey and Argentina Crisis for Φ (Financial Flux) crisis of values has been confirmed to give pre-warning.

Keywords: econophysics, financial crisis, Gauss's Law, physics

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Authors: Ainouna Bouziane

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The ability of Electron Tomography to recover the 3D structure of catalysts, with spatial resolution in the subnanometer scale, has been widely explored and reviewed in the last decades. A variety of experimental techniques, based either on Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) or Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (STEM) have been used to reveal different features of nanostructured catalysts in 3D, but High Angle Annular Dark Field imaging in STEM mode (HAADF-STEM) stands out as the most frequently used, given its chemical sensitivity and avoidance of imaging artifacts related to diffraction phenomena when dealing with crystalline materials. In this regard, our group has developed a methodology that combines image denoising by undecimated wavelet transforms (UWT) with automated, advanced segmentation procedures and parameter selection methods using CS-TVM (Compressed Sensing-total variation minimization) algorithms to reveal more reliable quantitative information out of the 3D characterization studies. However, evaluating the accuracy of the magnitudes estimated from the segmented volumes is also an important issue that has not been properly addressed yet, because a perfectly known reference is needed. The problem particularly complicates in the case of multicomponent material systems. To tackle this key question, we have developed a methodology that incorporates volume reconstruction/segmentation methods. In particular, we have established an approach to evaluate, in quantitative terms, the accuracy of TVM reconstructions, which considers the influence of relevant experimental parameters like the range of tilt angles, image noise level or object orientation. The approach is based on the analysis of material-realistic, 3D phantoms, which include the most relevant features of the system under analysis.

Keywords: electron tomography, supported catalysts, nanometrology, error assessment

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Authors: Linda Márcia Mendes Delazeri, Dênis Antônio Da Cunha

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Over the past few years, the evidence that human activities have altered the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have become stronger, indicating that this accumulation is the most likely cause of climate change observed so far. The risks associated with climate change, although uncertain, have the potential to increase social vulnerability, exacerbating existing socioeconomic challenges. Developing countries are potentially the most affected by climate change, since they have less potential to adapt and are those most dependent on agricultural activities, one of the sectors in which the major negative impacts are expected. In Brazil, specifically, it is expected that the localities which form the semiarid region are among the most affected, due to existing irregularity in rainfall and high temperatures, in addition to economic and social factors endemic to the region. Given the strategic limitations to handle the environmental shocks caused by climate change, an alternative adopted in response to these shocks is migration. Understanding the specific features of migration flows, such as duration, destination and composition is essential to understand the impacts of migration on origin and destination locations and to develop appropriate policies. Thus, this study aims to examine whether climatic factors have contributed to rural-urban migration in semiarid municipalities in the recent past and how these migration flows will be affected by future scenarios of climate change. The study was based on microeconomic theory of utility maximization, in which, to decide to leave the countryside and move on to the urban area, the individual seeks to maximize its utility. Analytically, we estimated an econometric model using the modeling of Fixed Effects and the results confirmed the expectation that climate drivers are crucial for the occurrence of the rural-urban migration. Also, other drivers of the migration process, as economic, social and demographic factors were also important. Additionally, predictions about the rural-urban migration motivated by variations in temperature and precipitation in the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 were made for the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that there will be increased rural-urban migration in the semiarid region in both scenarios and in both periods. In general, the results of this study reinforce the need for formulations of public policies to avoid migration for climatic reasons, such as policies that give support to the productive activities generating income in rural areas. By providing greater incentives for family agriculture and expanding sources of credit for the farmer, it will have a better position to face climate adversities and to settle in rural areas. Ultimately, if migration becomes necessary, there must be the adoption of policies that seek an organized and planned development of urban areas, considering migration as an adaptation strategy to adverse climate effects. Thus, policies that act to absorb migrants in urban areas and ensure that they have access to basic services offered to the urban population would contribute to the social costs reduction of climate variability.

Keywords: climate change, migration, rural productivity, semiarid region

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Authors: Peng Guo

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Objective To investigate the clinical characteristics and changes of video-polysomnography (v-PSG) in Parkinson disease (PD) patients accompanied with cognitive impairment. Methods Three hundred and ninety-four patients with PD were enrolled in Beijing Tiantan Hospital, according to CI level, the patients were divided into PD without cognitive impairment (PD-NCI), PD with mild cognitive impairment (PD-MCI), and PD with dementia (PDD) group. Collect patient's demographic data, including gender, onset age, education level and duration. The cognitive function of PD patients was evaluated by Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA) scale, and the overall cognitive function and cognitive domains of the three groups were compared.Using v-PSG to assess the sleep status of patients. Correlation analysis of MoCA Scale and v-PSG results in PD-CI group. Results 1. In 394 cases of PD, 94 cases (23.86%) in PD-NCI group , 177 cases(44.92%) in PD-MCI group , 123 cases (31.22%) in PDD group. 2.There was no significant difference in gender, age of onset, education level and duration in PD-NCI group, PD-MCI group and PDD group （P＞0.05）. 3. The total score of MoCA scale in PD-NCI group, PD-MCI group and PDD group decreased one by one. In PD-NCI group, PD-MCI group and PDD group, the scores of each cognitive domain in MoCA scale decreased significantly（P<0.05）. 4.Compared with the PD-MCI group, PDD group had lower total sleep time, lower sleep efficiency （P<0.05）. Compared with PD-NCI group, PDD group had lower total sleep time and lower sleep efficiency （P<0.05）.5. The sleep efficiency of PD-CI patients is positively correlated with the total score of MoCA scale, visual spatial function, executive function, delayed recall and attention score（P<0.05). Conclusions The incidence of CI in PD patients was high; The cognitive function and cognitive domains of PD-CI patients were significantly impaired; In patients with PD-CI, total sleep time decreased, sleep efficiency decreased, and it was related to overall cognitive function and partial cognitive impairment.

Keywords: Parkinson disease, cognitive impairment, clinical characteristics, sleep disorders, video-polysomnography

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Authors: Walid A. Attia, Taher M. Bazan, Fawzy Eltohamy, Mahmoud Fathy

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System performance evaluation is an essential stage in the design of high-resolution satellite telescopes prior to the development process. In this paper, a system performance evaluation of a very high-resolution satellite telescope is investigated. The evaluated system has a Korsch optical scheme design. This design has been discussed in another paper with respect to three-mirror anastigmat (TMA) scheme design and the former configuration showed better results. The investigated system is based on the Korsch optical design integrated with a time-delay and integration charge coupled device (TDI-CCD) sensor to achieve a ground sampling distance (GSD) of 25 cm. The key performance metrics considered are the spatial resolution, the signal to noise ratio (SNR) and the total modulation transfer function (MTF) of the system. In addition, the national image interpretability rating scale (NIIRS) metric is assessed to predict the image quality according to the modified general image quality equation (GIQE). Based on the orbital, optical and detector parameters, the estimated GSD is found to be 25 cm. The SNR has been analyzed at different illumination conditions of target albedos, sun and sensor angles. The system MTF has been computed including diffraction, aberration, optical manufacturing, smear and detector sampling as the main contributors for evaluation the MTF. Finally, the system performance evaluation results show that the computed MTF value is found to be around 0.08 at the Nyquist frequency, the SNR value was found to be 130 at albedo 0.2 with a nadir viewing angles and the predicted NIIRS is in the order of 6.5 which implies a very good system image quality.

Keywords: modulation transfer function, national image interpretability rating scale, signal to noise ratio, satellite telescope performance evaluation

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Authors: Toka Aly

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Historically, marketplaces were the most important nodes and focal points of cities, where different activities took place. Commercial streets offer more than just spaces for shopping; they also offer choices for social activities and cultural exchange. They are considered the backbone of the city’s vibrancy and vitality. Despite that, the public life in Cairo’s commercial streets has deteriorated, where the shopping activities became reliant mainly on 'planned formal places', mainly in privatized or indoor spaces like shopping malls. The main aim of this paper is to explore the key elements and tools of assessing the successfulness of commercial streets in Cairo. The methodology followed in this paper is based on a case study methodology (multiple cases) that is based on assessing and analyzing the physical and social elements in historical and contemporary commercial streets in El Muiz Street and Baghdad Street in Cairo. The data collection is based on personal observations, photographs, maps and street sections. Findings indicate that the key factors of analyzing commercial streets are factors affecting the sensory experience, factors affecting the social behavior, and general aspects that attract people. Findings also indicate that urban features have clear influence on shopping pedestrian activities in both streets. Moreover, in order for a commercial street to be successful, shopping patterns must provide people with a quality public space that can provide easy navigation and accessibility, good visual continuity, and well-designed urban features and social gathering. Outcomes of this study will be a significant endeavor in providing a good background for urban designers on analyzing and assessing successfulness of commercial streets. The study will also help in understanding the different physical and social pattern of vending activities taking place in Cairo.

Keywords: activities, commercial street, marketplace, successful, vending

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Authors: G. C. Joshi, M. Paul, B. K. Kalita, V. Ranga, J. S. Rawat, P. S. Rawat

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Being a habitat of the global village, every place has established connection through the strength and power of social media piercing through the political boundaries. Social media is a digital platform, where people across the world can interact as it has advantages of being universal, anonymous, easily accessible, indirect interaction, gathering and sharing information. The power of social media lies in the intensity of sharing extreme opinions or feelings, in contrast to the personal interactions which can be easily mapped in the form of Sentiment Mapping. The easy access to social networking sites such as Facebook, Twitter and blogs made unprecedented opportunities for citizens to voice their opinions loaded with dynamics of emotions. These further influence human thoughts where social media plays a very active role. A recent incident of public importance was selected as a case study to map the sentiments of people through Twitter. Understanding those dynamics through the eye of an ordinary people can be challenging. With the help of R-programming language and by the aid of GIS techniques sentiment maps has been produced. The emotions flowing worldwide in the form of tweets were extracted and analyzed. The number of tweets had diminished by 91 % from 25/08/2017 to 31/08/2017. A boom of sentiments emerged near the origin of the case, i.e., Delhi, Haryana and Punjab and the capital showed maximum influence resulting in spillover effect near Delhi. The trend of sentiments was prevailing more as neutral (45.37%), negative (28.6%) and positive (21.6%) after calculating the sentiment scores of the tweets. The result can be used to know the spatial distribution of digital penetration in India, where highest concentration lies in Mumbai and lowest in North East India and Jammu and Kashmir.

Keywords: sentiment mapping, digital literacy, GIS, R statistical language, spatio-temporal

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Authors: S. M. Islam, Wasi Uddin, Nazmun Nahar

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Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, faces two contrasting problems; excess of water during monsoon season and scarcity of water during dry season. The first problem occurs due to rapid urbanization and mismanagement of rainwater whereas the second problem is related to climate change and increasing urban population. Inadequate drainage system also worsens the overall water management scenario in Dhaka city. Dhaka has a population density of 115,000 people per square miles. This results in a 2.5 billion liter water demand every day, 87% of which is fulfilled by groundwater. Over dependency on groundwater has resulted in more than 200 feet drop in the last 50 years and continues to decline at a rate of 9 feet per year. Considering the gravity of the problem, it is high time that practitioners, academicians and policymakers consider different water management practices and look into their cumulative impacts at different scales. The present study assesses different rainwater management options for North South University of Bangladesh and recommends the most feasible and sustainable rainwater management measure. North South University currently accommodates over 20,000 students, faculty members, and administrative staffs. To fulfill the water demand, there are two deep tube wells, which bring up approximately 150,000 liter of water every hour. The annual water demand is approximately 103 million liters. Dhaka receives approximately 1800 mm of rainfall every year. For the current study, two academic buildings and one administrative building consist of 4924 square meters of rooftop area was selected as catchment area. Both rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge options were analyzed separately. It was estimated that by rainwater harvesting, annually a total of 7.2 million liters of water can be reused which is approximately 7% of the total annual water usage. In the monsoon, rainwater harvesting fulfills 12.2% of the monthly water demand. The approximate cost of the rainwater harvesting system is estimated to be 940975 bdt (USD 11500). For direct groundwater recharge, a system comprises of one de-siltation tank, two recharge tanks and one siltation tank were designed that requires approximately 532788 bdt (USD 6500). The payback period is approximately 7 years and 4 months for the groundwater recharge system whereas the payback period for rainwater harvesting option is approximately 12 years and 4 months. Based on the cost-benefit analysis, the present study finds the groundwater recharge system to be most suitable for North South University. The present study also demonstrates that if only one institution like North South University can add up a substantial amount of water to the aquifer, bringing other institutions in the network has the potential to create significant cumulative impact on replenishing the declining groundwater level of Dhaka city. As an additional benefit, it also prevents large amount of water being discharged into the storm sewers which results in severe flooding in Dhaka city during monsoon.

Keywords: Dhaka, groundwater, harvesting, rainwater, recharge

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Authors: Meng H. Lean, Wei-Ping L. Chu

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The effects of ferroelectric nanofiller size, shape, loading, and polarization, on bipolar charge injection, transport, and recombination through amorphous and semicrystalline polymers are studied. A 3D particle-in-cell model extends the classical electrical double layer representation to treat ferroelectric nanoparticles. Metal-polymer charge injection assumes Schottky emission and Fowler-Nordheim tunneling, migration through field-dependent Poole-Frenkel mobility, and recombination with Monte Carlo selection based on collision probability. A boundary integral equation method is used for solution of the Poisson equation coupled with a second-order predictor-corrector scheme for robust time integration of the equations of motion. The stability criterion of the explicit algorithm conforms to the Courant-Friedrichs-Levy limit. Trajectories for charge that make it through the film are curvilinear paths that meander through the interspaces. Results indicate that charge transport behavior depends on nanoparticle polarization with anti-parallel orientation showing the highest leakage conduction and lowest level of charge trapping in the interaction zone. Simulation prediction of a size range of 80 to 100 nm to minimize attachment and maximize conduction is validated by theory. Attached charge fractions go from 2.2% to 97% as nanofiller size is decreased from 150 nm to 60 nm. Computed conductivity of 0.4 x 1014 S/cm is in agreement with published data for plastics. Charge attachment is increased with spheroids due to the increase in surface area, and especially so for oblate spheroids showing the influence of larger cross-sections. Charge attachment to nanofillers and nanocrystallites increase with vol.% loading or degree of crystallinity, and saturate at about 40 vol.%.

Keywords: nanocomposites, nanofillers, electrical double layer, bipolar charge transport

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Authors: Saeed Pourhassan, Nastaran Maghbouli

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Statement of the problem: The relationship between obesity and cardiovascular diseases has been studied widely(1). The distribution of fat tissue gained attention in relation to cardiovascular risk factors during lang-time research (2). American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) is widely and the most reliable tool to be used as a cardiovascular risk (CVR) assessment tool(3). This study aimed to determine which anthropometric index is better in discrimination of high CVR patients from low risks using ACC/AHA score in addition to finding the best index as a CVR predictor among both genders in different races and countries. Methodology & theoretical orientation: The literature in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched by two independent investigators using the keywords "anthropometric indices," "cardiovascular risk," and "obesity." The search strategy was limited to studies published prior to Jan 2022 as full-texts in the English language. Studies using ACC/AHA risk assessment tool as CVR and those consisted at least 2 anthropometric indices (ancient ones and novel ones) are included. Study characteristics and data were extracted. The relative risks were pooled with the use of the random-effect model. Analysis was repeated in subgroups. Findings: Pooled relative risk for 7 studies with 16,348 participants were 1.56 (1.35-1.72) for BMI, 1.67(1.36-1.83) for WC [waist circumference], 1.72 (1.54-1.89) for WHR [waist-to-hip ratio], 1.60 (1.44-1.78) for WHtR [waist-to-height ratio], 1.61 (1.37-1.82) for ABSI [A body shape index] and 1.63 (1.32-1.89) for CI [Conicity index]. Considering gender, WC among females and WHR among men gained the highest RR. The heterogeneity of studies was moderate (α²: 56%), which was not decreased by subgroup analysis. Some indices such as VAI and LAP were evaluated just in one study. Conclusion & significance: This meta-analysis showed WHR could predict CVR better in comparison to BMI or WHtR. Some new indices like CI and ABSI are less accurate than WHR and WC. Among women, WC seems to be a better choice to predict cardiovascular disease risk.

Keywords: obesity, cardiovascular disease, risk assessment, anthropometric indices

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Authors: O. Delage, H. Bencherif, T. Portafaix, A. Bourdier

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The main purpose of time series analysis is to learn about the dynamics behind some time ordered measurement data. Two approaches are used in the literature to get a better knowledge of the dynamics contained in observation data sequences. The first of these approaches concerns time series decomposition, which is an important analysis step allowing patterns and behaviors to be extracted as components providing insight into the mechanisms producing the time series. As in many cases, time series are short, noisy, and non-stationary. To provide components which are physically meaningful, methods such as Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Empirical Wavelet Transform (EWT) or, more recently, Empirical Adaptive Wavelet Decomposition (EAWD) have been proposed. The second approach is to reconstruct the dynamics underlying the time series as a trajectory in state space by mapping a time series into a set of Rᵐ lag vectors by using the method of delays (MOD). Takens has proved that the trajectory obtained with the MOD technic is equivalent to the trajectory representing the dynamics behind the original time series. This work introduces the singular spectrum decomposition (SSD), which is a new adaptive method for decomposing non-linear and non-stationary time series in narrow-banded components. This method takes its origin from singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a nonparametric spectral estimation method used for the analysis and prediction of time series. As the first step of SSD is to constitute a trajectory matrix by embedding a one-dimensional time series into a set of lagged vectors, SSD can also be seen as a reconstruction method like MOD. We will first give a brief overview of the existing decomposition methods (EMD-EWT-EAWD). The SSD method will then be described in detail and applied to experimental time series of observations resulting from total columns of ozone measurements. The results obtained will be compared with those provided by the previously mentioned decomposition methods. We will also compare the reconstruction qualities of the observed dynamics obtained from the SSD and MOD methods.

Keywords: time series analysis, adaptive time series decomposition, wavelet, phase space reconstruction, singular spectrum analysis

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Authors: Hasen Keder Edris, Ryuji Matsunaga, Toshi Yamanaka

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The issue of climate change and its impact is a major contemporary global concern. Ethiopia is one of the countries experiencing adverse climate change impact including frequent extreme weather events that are exacerbating drought and water scarcity. Due to this reason, the government of Ethiopia develops a strategic document which focuses on the climate resilience green economy. One of the major components of the strategic framework is designed to improve community adaptation capacity and mitigation of drought. For effective implementation of the strategy, identification of regions relative vulnerability to drought is vital. There is a growing tendency of applying Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing technologies for collecting information on duration and severity of drought by direct measure of the topography as well as an indirect measure of land cover. This study aims to show an application of remote sensing technology and GIS for developing drought vulnerability index by taking lowland of Ethiopia as a case study. In addition, it assesses integrated Information Communication Technology (ICT) potential of Ethiopia lowland and proposes integrated solution. Satellite data is used to detect the beginning of the drought. The severity of drought risk prone areas of livestock keeping pastoral is analyzed through normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and ten years rainfall data. The change from the existing and average SPOT NDVI and vegetation condition index is used to identify the onset of drought and potential risks. Secondary data is used to analyze geographical coverage of mobile and internet usage in the region. For decades, the government of Ethiopia introduced some technologies and approach to overcoming climate change related problems. However, lack of access to information and inadequate technical support for the pastoral area remains a major challenge. In conventional business as usual approach, the lowland pastorals continue facing a number of challenges. The result indicated that 80% of the region face frequent drought occurrence and out of this 60% of pastoral area faces high drought risk. On the other hand, the target area mobile phone and internet coverage is rapidly growing. One of identified ICT solution enabler technology is telecom center which covers 98% of the region. It was possible to identify the frequently affected area and potential drought risk using the NDVI remote-sensing data analyses. We also found that ICT can play an important role in mitigating climate change challenge. Hence, there is a need to strengthen implementation efforts of climate change adaptation through integrated Remote Sensing and web based information dissemination and mobile alert of extreme events.

Keywords: climate changes, ICT, pastoral, remote sensing

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Authors: Andrew Kanzunguze, Lusayo Mwabumba, Jason K. Gilbertson, Dominic B. Gondwe, George Z. Nxumayo

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Knowledge about the spatio-temporal distribution of invasive plants in protected areas provides a base from which hypotheses explaining proliferation of plant invasions can be made alongside development of relevant invasive plant monitoring programs. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of bracken fern on the grassland plateau of Nyika National Park over the past 30 years (1986-2016) as well as to determine the current extent of the invasion. Remote sensing, machine learning, and statistical modelling techniques (object-based image analysis, image classification and linear regression analysis) in geographical information systems were used to determine both the spatial and temporal distribution of bracken fern in the study area. Results have revealed that bracken fern has been increasing coverage on the Nyika plateau at an estimated annual rate of 87.3 hectares since 1986. This translates to an estimated net increase of 2,573.1 hectares, which was recorded from 1,788.1 hectares (1986) to 4,361.9 hectares (2016). As of 2017 bracken fern covered 20,940.7 hectares, approximately 14.3% of the entire grassland plateau. Additionally, it was observed that the fern was distributed most densely around Chelinda camp (on the central plateau) as well as in forest verges and roadsides across the plateau. Based on these results it is recommended that Ecological Niche Modelling approaches be employed to (i) isolate the most important factors influencing bracken fern proliferation as well as (ii) identify and prioritize areas requiring immediate control interventions so as to minimize bracken fern proliferation in Nyika National Park.

Keywords: bracken fern, image classification, Landsat-8, Nyika National Park, spatio-temporal distribution

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Authors: Girish Chandran, Milu Tigi

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Brian O'Doherty's seminal essay, Inside the white Cube theorized and named the dominant mode of display and exhibition of Modern Art museums. Ever since the advent of Biennales and other site-specific public art projects we have seen a departure from the white cube mode of exhibition. The physicality, materiality and context within which an artwork is framed has a role in the production of meaning of public art. Equally, artworks contribute to the meaning and identity of a place. This to and fro relationship between the site and artwork and its influence on the sense of place and production of meaning is being explored in this paper in the context of Kochi Muziris Biennale (KMB). Known as the Peoples biennale with over 5 lakh visitors, it is India's first Biennale and its largest art exhibition of contemporary art. The paper employs place theory and contemporary curatorial theories to present the case. The KMB has an interesting mix of exhibition spaces which includes existing galleries and halls, site-specific projects in public spaces, infill developments and adaptive reuse of heritage and other unused architecture. The biennale was envisioned as an event connecting to the history, socio-political peculiarities of the cultural landscape of Kerala and more specifically Kochi. The paper explains the role of spatial elements in forming a curatorial narrative connected to the above mentioned ambitions.The site-specific nature of exhibition and its use of unused architecture helps in the formation of exhibition spaces unique in type and materiality. The paper argues how this helps in the creation of an 'archeology of the place'. The research elucidates how a composite nature of experience helps connect with the thematic ambitions of the Biennale and how it brings about an aesthetics distinct to KMB.

Keywords: public art, curatorial practice, architecture, place, contemporary art, site specificity

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Authors: Noryani Natasha Yahaya, Anas Ibrahim, Juraidah Ahmad, Azura Ahmad, Mohd Ikmal Fazlan Rosli, Zailan Ramli, Muhd Sidek Muhd Norhasri

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The subgrade formation is an important element of the railway structure which holds overall track stability. Conventional track maintenance involves many substructure component replacements, as well as track re-ballasting on a regular basis is partially contributed to the embankment's long-term settlement problem. For subgrade long-term stability analysis, the geophysical method is commonly being used to diagnose those hidden sources/mechanisms of track deterioration problems that the normal visual method is unable to detect. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is one of the applicable geophysical tools that are helpful in railway subgrade inspection/track monitoring due to its flexibility and reliability of the analysis. The ERT was conducted at KM 23.0 of Pinang Tunggal track to investigate the subgrade of railway track through the characterization/mapping on track formation profiling which was directly generated using 2D analysis of Res2dinv software. The profiles will allow examination of the presence and spatial extent of a significant subgrade layer and screening of any poor contact of soil boundary. Based on the finding, there is a mix/interpretation/intermixing of an interlayer between the sub-ballast and the sand. Although the embankment track considered here is at no immediate risk of settlement effect or any failure, the regular monitoring of track’s location will allow early correction maintenance if necessary. The developed data of track formation clearly shows the similarity of the side view with the assessed track. The data visualization in the 2D section of the track embankment agreed well with the initial assumption based on the main element structure general side view.

Keywords: ground track, assessment, resistivity, geophysical railway, method

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Authors: Chittana Phompila

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The current increased population pushes increasing demands for natural resources and living space. In Laos, urban areas have been expanding rapidly in recent years. The rapid urbanization can have negative impacts on landscapes, including forest and agriculture lands. The primary objective of this research were to map current urban areas in a large city in Savannakhet province, in Laos, 2) to compare changes in urbanization between 1990 and 2018, and 3) to estimate forest and agriculture areas lost due to expansions of urban areas during the last over twenty years within study area. Landsat 8 data was used and existing GIS data was collected including spatial data on rivers, lakes, roads, vegetated areas and other land use/land covers). GIS data was obtained from the government sectors. Object based classification (OBC) approach was applied in ECognition for image processing and analysis of urban area using. Historical data from other Landsat instruments (Landsat 5 and 7) were used to allow us comparing changes in urbanization in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018 in this study area. Only three main land cover classes were focused and classified, namely forest, agriculture and urban areas. Change detection approach was applied to illustrate changes in built-up areas in these periods. Our study shows that the overall accuracy of map was 95% assessed, kappa~ 0.8. It is found that that there is an ineffective control over forest and land-use conversions from forests and agriculture to urban areas in many main cities across the province. A large area of agriculture and forest has been decreased due to this conversion. Uncontrolled urban expansion and inappropriate land use planning can lead to creating a pressure in our resource utilisation. As consequence, it can lead to food insecurity and national economic downturn in a long term.

Keywords: urbanisation, forest cover, agriculture areas, Landsat 8 imagery

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Authors: Kourosh Ghaffari, Baghaei Azhang

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This study aims to address two main questions whether a camp designed for refugees will affect their quality of life and how to effectively incorporate ecotech architecture into the architectural design of a refugee camp. The current study planned to ensure that the final design reflects the principles of ecotech architecture in most refugee camps. The design process has taken into account various factors, including flexibility, diversity in the camp space according to the ecotech approach, expandability in the building, spatial hierarchy in the design of camp spaces, and the assignment of territories and space sanctuaries to refugees. It should be noted that this study is not a research-oriented type of study and is only limited to collecting information and making hypotheses and questions related to the plan. The researchers attempted to provide a general summary of similar domestic and foreign examples and examine them in similar conditions using the ecotech architecture. The research method utilized in this study was qualitative. Afterwards, the climate studies of the target area, citing and paying attention to the criteria and points extracted from the theoretical framework, reaching the desired conclusion and examining similar examples were followed. Additionally, placement on the site, compliance with relevant standards and regulations, attention to the content and physical program, and addressing the idea and its evolution in all the details of the plan were presented. The data collection procedure included observation and library studies, and the design method was to determine and recognize the subject and examine similar samples. In conclusion, the principles of theoretical foundations, the design protocols in ecotech architecture and the scope of the study are dealt. Furthermore, the site analysis, the design process and the final plan are presented.

Keywords: ecotech architecture, livable city, shelter, refugee camp

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Authors: Mohadese Sukhtesaraii, Mohammad Esmail Esmaili Jelodar, Kosar Sookhtesaraii

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Throughout history, humans have always wanted to have a shelter to live in, and this need and desire became the beginning of building and architecture. It was necessary to build a shelter and a building, dealing with the surrounding nature. The design and construction of architectural spaces are always influenced by nature, climate, and geographical location, and It is believed clearly see this influence even in the use of materials used in the construction of architectural buildings. The historical port of Siraf is located on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf in Bushehr province and 38 km from Kangan port. Geographically and climatically, Siraf is considered one of the hot and humid areas. The Zagros mountains, which continue from the Iranian plateau to the sea, end at Bandar Siraf; As a result, it creates a strip one kilometer wide by the sea. The location of Siraf in the restrictive conditions of the mountains and the sea has made it impossible to expand the city. The main goal of the current research is to investigate the climate of Siraf and the influence of the region's climate on the architecture and design of residential buildings in Siraf, known as noble houses, in the early Islamic centuries. In this research, it is looking for an answer to the question of how the climatic and geographical conditions have affected the architecture of Siraf buildings. The theoretical framework of this research can be expressed based on the influence of climate on the historical architecture of Bandar Seraf and the spatial analysis of archeology. Also, the research method will be analytical-descriptive and using field and library studies. The authors of the article believe that the architectural spaces of the early Islamic centuries of Siraf city were affected by the climate and geographical location, and the architects started building buildings by considering factors such as the sun's radiation, wind direction, and the position of the mountains and the sea. To use the regional and environmental potential for buildings.

Keywords: hose N, noble hose, islamic era, siraf, climate

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Authors: G. Traini, G. Battistoni, F. Collamati, E. De Lucia, R. Faccini, C. Mancini-Terracciano, M. Marafini, I. Mattei, S. Muraro, A. Sarti, A. Sciubba, E. Solfaroli Camillocci, M. Toppi, S. M. Valle, C. Voena, V. Patera

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In Particle Therapy (PT) treatments a large amount of secondary particles, whose emission point is correlated to the dose released in the crossed tissues, is produced. The measurement of the secondary charged fragments component could represent a valid technique to monitor the beam range during the PT treatments, that is a still missing item in the clinical practice. A sub-millimetrical precision on the beam range measurement is required to significantly optimise the technique and to improve the treatment quality. In this contribution, a detector, named Dose Profiler (DP), is presented. It is specifically planned to monitor on-line the beam range exploiting the secondary charged particles produced in PT Carbon ions treatment. In particular, the DP is designed to track the secondary fragments emitted at large angles with respect to the beam direction (mainly protons), with the aim to reconstruct the spatial coordinates of the fragment emission point extrapolating the measured track toward the beam axis. The DP is currently under development within of the INSIDE collaboration (Innovative Solutions for In-beam Dosimetry in hadrontherapy). The tracker is made by six layers (20 × 20 cm²) of BCF-12 square scintillating fibres (500 μm) coupled to Silicon Photo-Multipliers, followed by two plastic scintillator layers of 6 mm thickness. A system of front-end boards based on FPGAs arranged around the detector provides the data acquisition. The detector characterization with cosmic rays is currently undergoing, and a data taking campaign with protons will take place in May 2017. The DP design and the performances measured with using MIPs and protons beam will be reviewed.

Keywords: fragmentation, monitoring, particle therapy, tracking

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Authors: Konstantinos G. Kostinakis, Manthos K. Papadopoulos, Asimina M. Athanatopoulou

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An important area of research in seismic risk analysis is the evaluation of expected seismic damage of structures under a specific earthquake ground motion. Several conventional intensity measures of ground motion have been used to estimate their damage potential to structures. Yet, none of them was proved to be able to predict adequately the seismic damage of any structural system. Therefore, alternative advanced intensity measures which take into account not only ground motion characteristics but also structural information have been proposed. The adequacy of a number of advanced earthquake intensity measures in prediction of structural damage of 3D R/C buildings under seismic excitation which attacks the building with arbitrary incident angle is investigated in the present paper. To achieve this purpose, a symmetric in plan and an asymmetric 5-story R/C building are studied. The two buildings are subjected to 20 bidirectional earthquake ground motions. The two horizontal accelerograms of each ground motion are applied along horizontal orthogonal axes forming 72 different angles with the structural axes. The response is computed by non-linear time history analysis. The structural damage is expressed in terms of the maximum interstory drift as well as the overall structural damage index. The values of the aforementioned seismic damage measures determined for incident angle 0° as well as their maximum values over all seismic incident angles are correlated with 9 structure-specific ground motion intensity measures. The research identified certain intensity measures which exhibited strong correlation with the seismic damage of the two buildings. However, their adequacy for estimation of the structural damage depends on the response parameter adopted. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the widely used spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure is a good indicator of the expected earthquake damage level.

Keywords: damage indices, non-linear response, seismic excitation angle, structure-specific intensity measures

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Authors: Muhd. Barzani Gasim, Mohd. Ekhwan Toriman, Mohd. Khairul Amri Kamarudin, Azman Azid, Siti Humaira Haron, Muhammad Hafiz Md. Saad

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Malaysia is a country in Southeast Asia that constantly exposed to flooding and landslide. The disaster has caused some troubles such loss of property, loss of life and discomfort of people involved. This problem occurs as a result of climate change leading to increased stream flow rate as a result of disruption to regional hydrological cycles. The aim of the study is to determine hydrologic processes in the east coasts of Peninsular Malaysia, especially in Kelantan Basin. Parameterized to account for the spatial and temporal variability of basin characteristics and their responses to climate variability. For hydrological modeling of the basin, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model such as relief, soil type, and its use, and historical daily time series of climate and river flow rates are studied. The interpretation of Landsat map/land uses will be applied in this study. The combined of SWAT and climate models, the system will be predicted an increase in future scenario climate precipitation, increase in surface runoff, increase in recharge and increase in the total water yield. As a result, this model has successfully developed the basin analysis by demonstrating analyzing hydrographs visually, good estimates of minimum and maximum flows and severe floods observed during calibration and validation periods.

Keywords: east coasts of Peninsular Malaysia, Kelantan river basin, minimum and maximum flows, severe floods, SWAT model

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Tengqin Han

Abstract:

Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 228