Search results for: risk estimation

Authors: Francesco La Torre, Angela Di Cesare, Donato Traversa

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The mosquito-transmitted nematode Dirofilaria repens is the causative agent of subcutaneous filariosis in dogs, other animals and humans. Adults and circulating microfilariae may cause different forms of skin conditions, and various allergic reactions. The infection is distributed in several countries and spreading in several areas of Europe. The control of D. repens is pivotal to reduce the transmission in dogs and to minimize the risk of infection in humans, but only few information is available for the chemoprevention of subcutaneous filariosis of dogs. A recent clinical field study showed the efficacy and safety of a monthly administration of an oral formulation containing milbemycin oxime (Milbemax®, Novartis Animal Health) in the chemoprevention of D. repens infection in dogs. Most recent and focused insights into epidemiology and control of zoonotic canine subcutaneous filariosis are here discussed.

Keywords: Dirofilaria repens, epidemiology, zoonosis, control

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Authors: Mohammed El Raey, Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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The spatial-ecological modeling is relating sustainable dispersions with social development. Sustainability with spatial-ecological model gives attention to urban environments in the design review management to comply with Earth’s System. Naturally exchange patterns of ecosystems have consistent and periodic cycles to preserve energy flows and materials in Earth’s System. The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technique is utilized to assess the safety of industrial complex. The other analytical approach is the Failure-Safe Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) for critical components. The plant safety parameters are identified for engineering topology as employed in assessment safety of industrial ecology. In particular, the most severe accidental release of hazardous gaseous is postulated, analyzed and assessment in industrial region. The IAEA- safety assessment procedure is used to account the duration and rate of discharge of liquid chlorine. The ecological model of plume dispersion width and concentration of chlorine gas in the downwind direction is determined using Gaussian Plume Model in urban and ruler areas and presented with SURFER®. The prediction of accident consequences is traced in risk contour concentration lines. The local greenhouse effect is predicted with relevant conclusions. The spatial-ecological model is also predicted the distribution schemes from the perspective of pollutants that considered multiple factors of multi-criteria analysis. The data extends input–output analysis to evaluate the spillover effect, and conducted Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis. Their unique structure is balanced within “equilibrium patterns”, such as the biosphere and collective a composite index of many distributed feedback flows. These dynamic structures are related to have their physical and chemical properties and enable a gradual and prolonged incremental pattern. While this spatial model structure argues from ecology, resource savings, static load design, financial and other pragmatic reasons, the outcomes are not decisive in artistic/ architectural perspective. The hypothesis is an attempt to unify analytic and analogical spatial structure for development urban environments using optimization software and applied as an example of integrated industrial structure where the process is based on engineering topology as optimization approach of systems ecology.

Keywords: spatial-ecological modeling, spatial structure orientation impact, composite structure, industrial ecology

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Authors: Najibullah M, Soumendra Nath Kuiry

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Dams and reservoirs are perceived for their estimable alms to irrigation, water supply, flood control, electricity generation, etc. which civilize the prosperity and wealth of society across the world. Meantime the dam breach could cause devastating flood that can threat to the human lives and properties. Failures of large dams remain fortunately very seldom events. Nevertheless, a number of occurrences have been recorded in the world, corresponding in an average to one to two failures worldwide every year. Some of those accidents have caused catastrophic consequences. So it is decisive to predict the dam break flow for emergency planning and preparedness, as it poses high risk to life and property. To mitigate the adverse impact of dam break, modeling is necessary to gain a good understanding of the temporal and spatial evolution of the dam-break floods. This study will mainly deal with one-dimensional (1D) dam break modeling. Less commonly used in the hydraulic research community, another possible option for modeling the rapidly varied dam-break flows is the extended Boussinesq equations (BEs), which can describe the dynamics of short waves with a reasonable accuracy. Unlike the Shallow Water Equations (SWEs), the BEs taken into account the wave dispersion and non-hydrostatic pressure distribution. To capture the dam-break oscillations accurately it is very much needed of at least fourth-order accurate numerical scheme to discretize the third-order dispersion terms present in the extended BEs. The scope of this work is therefore to develop an 1D fourth-order accurate in both space and time Boussinesq model for dam-break flow analysis by using finite-volume / finite difference scheme. The spatial discretization of the flux and dispersion terms achieved through a combination of finite-volume and finite difference approximations. The flux term, was solved using a finite-volume discretization whereas the bed source and dispersion term, were discretized using centered finite-difference scheme. Time integration achieved in two stages, namely the third-order Adams Basforth predictor stage and the fourth-order Adams Moulton corrector stage. Implementation of the 1D Boussinesq model done using PYTHON 2.7.5. Evaluation of the performance of the developed model predicted as compared with the volume of fluid (VOF) based commercial model ANSYS-CFX. The developed model is used to analyze the risk of cascading dam failures similar to the Panshet dam failure in 1961 that took place in Pune, India. Nevertheless, this model can be used to predict wave overtopping accurately compared to shallow water models for designing coastal protection structures.

Keywords: Boussinesq equation, Coastal protection, Dam-break flow, One-dimensional model

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Authors: S. Khakurel, R. P. Dhakal, T. Z. Yeow

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Downtime is one of the major sources (alongside damage and injury/death) of financial loss incurred by a structure in an earthquake. The length of downtime associated with a building after an earthquake varies depending on the time taken for the reaction (to the earthquake), decision (on the future course of action) and execution (of the decided course of action) phases. Post-earthquake assessment of buildings is a key step in the decision making process to decide the appropriate safety placarding as well as to decide whether a damaged building is to be repaired or demolished. The aim of the present study is to develop a model to quantify downtime associated with the post-earthquake building-assessment phase in terms of two parameters; i) duration of the different assessment phase; and ii) probability of different colour tagging. Post-earthquake assessment of buildings includes three stages; Level 1 Rapid Assessment including a fast external inspection shortly after the earthquake, Level 2 Rapid Assessment including a visit inside the building and Detailed Engineering Evaluation (if needed). In this study, the durations of all three assessment phases are first estimated from the total number of damaged buildings, total number of available engineers and the average time needed for assessing each building. Then, probability of different tag colours is computed from the 2010-11 Canterbury earthquake Sequence database. Finally, a downtime model for the post-earthquake building inspection phase is proposed based on the estimated phase length and probability of tag colours. This model is expected to be used for rapid estimation of seismic downtime within the Loss Optimisation Seismic Design (LOSD) framework.

Keywords: assessment, downtime, LOSD, Loss Optimisation Seismic Design, phase length, tag color

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Authors: Chitraporn Boonthanom, Pailin Sisookho

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The Sexual Literacy Training Teachers Program (SLTTP) based on sexual health problems in Thai students includes sexual development, sexual hygiene, high-risk behaviors, Sexual Transmitter Infections and HIV/AIDS, unwanted pregnancy, unsafe abortion, and sexual abuse that increase among Thai students. The training aimed at providing teachers with the sexuality knowledge, sexuality information access skills, communication skill to effectively teach in their class. 28 teachers were participated from schools in Bangkok metropolitan and Nakorn Patom province. The result show the mean score of the pre-test was 8.46 (SD=1.77) and the post-test was 10.13 (SD=2.34). The post-training results were found to be higher than pre–training results but not significant. As teachers are increasing the sexual literacy is very important for Thai students.

Keywords: sexual literacy, teachers, training, sexuality education

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Authors: Chang Ting, Wu Chun Kuan

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Wireless sensing technology is increasingly developed, in order to avoid caregiver neglect children in poor physiological condition, so there are more and more products into the wireless sensor-related technologies, in order to reduce the risk of infants. In view of this, the study will focus on Somatosensory detection wristbands Applied Research of Baby, and to explore through observation and literature, to find design criteria which conform baby products, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of existing products. This study will focus on 0-2 years of infant research and product design, to provide 2-3 new design concepts and products to identify weaknesses through the use of the actual product, further provide future baby wristbands design reference.

Keywords: infants, observation, design criteria, wireless sensing

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Authors: Ujjwall Sai Sunder Uppuluri

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Group theory is a powerful tool that researchers can use to provide a structural foundation for their Agent Based Models. These Agent Based models are argued by this paper to be the future of the Social Science Disciplines. More specifically, researchers can use them to apply evolutionary theory to the study of complex social systems. This paper illustrates one such example of how theoretically an Agent Based Model can be formulated from the application of Group Theory, Systems Dynamics, and Evolutionary Biology to analyze the strategies pursued by states to mitigate risk and maximize usage of resources to achieve the objective of economic growth. This example can be applied to other social phenomena and this makes group theory so useful to the analysis of complex systems, because the theory provides the mathematical formulaic proof for validating the complex system models that researchers build and this will be discussed by the paper. The aim of this research, is to also provide researchers with a framework that can be used to model political entities such as states on a 3-dimensional plane. The x-axis representing resources (tangible and intangible) available to them, y the risks, and z the objective. There also exist other states with different constraints pursuing different strategies to climb the mountain. This mountain’s environment is made up of risks the state faces and resource endowments. This mountain is also layered in the sense that it has multiple peaks that must be overcome to reach the tallest peak. A state that sticks to a single strategy or pursues a strategy that is not conducive to the climbing of that specific peak it has reached is not able to continue advancement. To overcome the obstacle in the state’s path, it must innovate. Based on the definition of a group, we can categorize each state as being its own group. Each state is a closed system, one which is made up of micro level agents who have their own vectors and pursue strategies (actions) to achieve some sub objectives. The state also has an identity, the inverse being anarchy and/or inaction. Finally, the agents making up a state interact with each other through competition and collaboration to mitigate risks and achieve sub objectives that fall within the primary objective. Thus, researchers can categorize the state as an organism that reflects the sum of the output of the interactions pursued by agents at the micro level. When states compete, they employ a strategy and that state which has the better strategy (reflected by the strategies pursued by her parts) is able to out-compete her counterpart to acquire some resource, mitigate some risk or fulfil some objective. This paper will attempt to illustrate how group theory combined with evolutionary theory and systems dynamics can allow researchers to model the long run development, evolution, and growth of political entities through the use of a bottom up approach.

Keywords: complex systems, evolutionary theory, group theory, international political economy

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Authors: Seyedeh Sepideh Amini, Navideh Aghaei Amirkhizi, Seyedeh Paniz Amini, Seyed Soheil Sayyahi, Mohammad Reza Davar Panah

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CT-Scan is one of the lateral and sectional imaging methods that produce 3D-images with use of rotational x-ray tube around central axis. This study is about evaluation and calculation of effective doses around heart organs such as breast, lung and liver with CT-Scan 128 dual sources with TLD_100 and RANDO Phantom by spiral, flash and conventional protocols. In results, it is showed that in spiral protocol organs have maximum effective dose and minimum in flash protocol. Thus flash protocol advised for children and risk persons.

Keywords: X-ray computed tomography, dosimetry, TLD-100, RANDO, phantom

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Authors: Takeshi Takemoto, Naoya Suzuki, Naohisa Takagaki, Satoru Komori, Masako Terui, George Truscott

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Drag coefficient is an important parameter in order to correctly estimate the air-sea momentum flux. However, The parameterization of the drag coefficient hasn’t been established due to the variation in the field data. Instead, a number of drag coefficient model formulae have been proposed, even though almost all these models haven’t discussed the extreme wind speed range. With regards to such models, it is unclear how the drag coefficient changes in the extreme wind speed range as the wind speed increased. In this study, we investigated the effect of the drag coefficient models concerning the air-sea momentum flux in the extreme wind range on a global scale, comparing two different drag coefficient models. Interestingly, one model didn’t discuss the extreme wind speed range while the other model considered it. We found that the difference of the models in the annual global air-sea momentum flux was small because the occurrence frequency of strong wind was approximately 1% with a wind speed of 20m/s or more. However, we also discovered that the difference of the models was shown in the middle latitude where the annual mean air-sea momentum flux was large and the occurrence frequency of strong wind was high. In addition, the estimated data showed that the difference of the models in the drag coefficient was large in the extreme wind speed range and that the largest difference became 23% with a wind speed of 35m/s or more. These results clearly show that the difference of the two models concerning the drag coefficient has a significant impact on the estimation of a regional air-sea momentum flux in an extreme wind speed range such as that seen in a tropical cyclone environment. Furthermore, we estimated each air-sea momentum flux using several kinds of drag coefficient models. We will also provide data from an observation tower and result from CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) concerning the influence of wind flow at and around the place.

Keywords: air-sea interaction, drag coefficient, air-sea momentum flux, CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics)

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Authors: Roberto Feltrero, Sara Osuna-Acedo

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Responsible Research and Innovation have to accomplish one fundamental aim: everybody has to participate in the benefits of innovation, but also innovation has to be democratic; that is to say, everybody may have the possibility to participate in the decisions in the innovation process. Particularly, a democratic and inclusive model of social participation and innovation includes persons with disabilities and people at risk of discrimination. Innovations on Artificial Intelligence for social development have to accomplish the same dual goal: improving equality for accessing fields of public interest like education, training and public services, as well as improving civic and democratic participation in the process of developing such innovations for all. This research aims to develop innovations, policies and policy recommendations to apply and disseminate such artificial intelligence and social model for making educational and administrative processes more accessible. First, designing a citizen participation process to engage citizens in the designing and use of artificial intelligence tools for public services. This will result in improving trust in democratic institutions contributing to enhancing the transparency, effectiveness, accountability and legitimacy of public policy-making and allowing people to participate in the development of ethical standards for the use of such technologies. Second, improving educational tools for lifelong learning with AI models to improve accountability and educational data management. Dissemination, education and social participation will be integrated, measured and evaluated in innovative educational processes to make accessible all the educational technologies and content developed on AI about responsible and social innovation. A particular case will be presented regarding access for all to educational tools and public services. This accessibility requires cognitive adaptability because, many times, legal or administrative language is very complex. Not only for people with cognitive disabilities but also for old people or citizens at risk of educational or social discrimination. Artificial Intelligence natural language processing technologies can provide tools to translate legal, administrative, or educational texts to a more simple language that can be accessible to everybody. Despite technological advances in language processing and machine learning, this becomes a huge project if we really want to respect ethical and legal consequences because that kinds of consequences can only be achieved with civil and democratic engagement in two realms: 1) to democratically select texts that need and can be translated and 2) to involved citizens, experts and nonexperts, to produce and validate real examples of legal texts with cognitive adaptations to feed artificial intelligence algorithms for learning how to translate those texts to a more simple and accessible language, adapted to any kind of population.

Keywords: responsible research and innovation, AI social innovations, cognitive accessibility, public participation

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Authors: Linda Kauškale, Ineta Geipele

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Due to the rapidly changing external environment, portfolio management strategies became closely interconnected with real estate industry development and macroeconomic development tendencies. The aim of the research is to analyze sustainable real estate market development influencing factors, with particular focus on its economic and management aspects that influences real estate investment decisions as well. Scientific literature and article analysis, data analysis, expert evaluation, and other quantitative and qualitative research methods were used in the research. Developed real estate market sustainability model and index analysis approach can be applied by investors and real estate companies in real estate asset management and can help in risk minimization activities in international entrepreneurship. Future research directions have been identified in the research as well.

Keywords: indexes, investment decisions, real estate market, sustainability

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Authors: Valerie Isaak

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This study examines the effectiveness of an intervention program aimed at enhancing a unit-level safety climate as a way to minimize the risk of employees being injured by patient violence. The intervention program conducted in maximum security units in one of the psychiatric hospitals in Israel included a three day workshop. Safety climate was examined before and after the implementation of the intervention. We also collected data regarding incidents involving patient violence. Six months after the intervention a significant improvement in employees’ perceptions regarding management’s commitment to safety were found as well as a marginally significant improvement in communication concerning safety issues. Our research shows that an intervention program aimed at enhancing a safety climate is associated with a decrease in the number of aggressive incidents. We conclude that such an intervention program is likely to return the sense of safety and reduce the scope of violence.

Keywords: violence, intervention, safety climate, performance, public sector

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Authors: Taurino S. R. Neto, Epitácio D. S. Neto, Flávio Signorelli, Gustavo G. M. Balbi, Alex H. Higashi, Mário Luiz R. Monteiro, Eloisa Bonfá, Danieli C. O. Andrade, Leandro C. Zacharias

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Purpose: To perform a multimodal evaluation, including the use of Optical Coherence Angiotomography (OCTA), in patients with primary antiphospholipid syndrome (PAPS) without ocular complaints and to compare them with healthy individuals. Methods: A complete structural and functional ophthalmological evaluation using OCTA and microperimetry (MP) exam in patients with PAPS, followed at a tertiary rheumatology outpatient clinic, was performed. All ophthalmologic manifestations were recorded and then statistical analysis was performed for comparative purposes; p <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: 104 eyes of 52 subjects (26 patients with PAPS without ocular complaints and 26 healthy individuals) were included. Among PAPS patients, 21 were female (80.8%) and 21 (80.8%) were Caucasians. Thrombotic PAPS was the main clinical criteria manifestation (100%); 65.4% had venous and 34.6% had arterial thrombosis. Obstetrical criteria were present in 34.6% of all thrombotic PAPS patients. Lupus anticoagulant was present in all patients. 19.2% of PAPS patients presented ophthalmologic findings against none of the healthy individuals. The most common retinal change was paracentral acute middle maculopathy (PAMM) (3 patients, 5 eyes), followed by drusen-like deposits (1 patient, 2 eyes) and pachychoroid pigment epitheliopathy (1 patient, 1 eye). Systemic hypertension and hyperlipidaemia were present in 100% of the PAPS patients with PAMM, while only six patients (26.1%) with PAPS without PAMM presented these two risk factors together. In the quantitative OCTA evaluation, we found significant differences between PAPS patients and controls in both the superficial vascular complex (SVC) and deep vascular complex (DVC) in the high-speed protocol, as well as in the SVC in the high-resolution protocol. In the analysis of the foveal avascular zone (FAZ) parameters, the PAPS group had a larger area of FAZ in the DVC using the high-speed method compared to the control group (p=0.047). In the quantitative analysis of the MP, the PAPS group had lower central (p=0.041) and global (p<0.001) retinal sensitivity compared to the control group, as well as in the sector analysis, with the exception of the inferior sector. In the quantitative evaluation of fixation stability, there was a trend towards worse stability in the PAPS subgroup with PAMM in both studied methods. Conclusions: PAMM was observed in 11.5% of PAPS patients with no previous ocular complaints. Systemic hypertension concomitant with hyperlipidemia was the most commonly associated risk factor for PAMM in patients with PAPS. PAPS patients present lower vascular density and retinal sensitivity compared to the control group, even in patients without PAMM.

Keywords: antiphospholipid syndrome, optical coherence angio tomography, optical coherence tomography, retina

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Authors: Hamid Kazemi, Abbasali Sadeghi

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Assessment of seismic behavior of frame structures is just done for evaluating life and financial damages or lost. The new structural seismic behavior assessment methods have been proposed, so it is necessary to define a formulation as a damage index, which the damage amount has been quantified and qualified. In this paper, four new steel moment-resisting frames with intermediate ductility and different height (2, 5, 8, and 12-story) with regular geometry and simple rectangular plan were supposed and designed. The three existing groups’ damage indices were studied, each group consisting of local index (Drift, Maximum Roof Displacement, Banon Failure, Kinematic, Banon Normalized Cumulative Rotation, Cumulative Plastic Rotation and Ductility), global index (Roufaiel and Meyer, Papadopoulos, Sozen, Rosenblueth, Ductility and Base Shear), and story (Banon Failure and Inter-story Rotation). The necessary parameters for these damage indices have been calculated under the effect of far-fault ground motion records by Non-linear Dynamic Time History Analysis. Finally, prioritization of damage indices is defined based on more conservative values in terms of more damageability rate. The results show that the selected damage index has an important effect on estimation of the damage state. Also, failure, drift, and Rosenblueth damage indices are more conservative indices respectively for local, story and global damage indices.

Keywords: damage index, far-fault ground motion records, non-linear time history analysis, SeismoStruct software, steel moment-resisting frame

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Authors: Andre C Jordaan

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The end of the Cold War and rivalry between super powers has changed the nature of military build-up in many countries. A call from international institutions like the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to reduce the levels of military expenditure was the order of the day. However, this bid to cut military expenditure has not been forthright. Recently, active armed conflicts occurred in at least 46 states in 2021 with 8 in the Americas, 9 in Asia and Oceania, 3 in Europe, 8 in the Middle East and North Africa and 18 in sub-Saharan Africa. Global military expenditure in 2022 was estimated to be US$2,2 trillion, representing 2.2 per cent of global gross domestic product. Particularly sharp rises in military spending have followed in African countries and the Middle East. Global military expenditure currently follows two divergent trends, either a declining trend in the West caused mainly by austerity, efforts to control budget deficits and the wrapping up of prolonged wars. However, some parts of the world shows an increasing trend on the back of security concerns, geopolitical ambitions and some internal political factors. Conflict related fatalities in sub-Saharan Africa alone increased by 19 per cent between 2020 and 2021. The interaction between military expenditure (read conflict) and international trade is generally the cause of much debate. Some argue that countries’ fear of losing trade opportunities causes political decision makers to refrain from engaging in conflict when important trading partners are involved. However, three main arguments are always present when discussing the relationship between military expenditure or conflicts and international trade: Free trade could promote peaceful cooperation, it could trigger tension between trading blocs and partners, and trade could have no effect because conflict is based on issues that are more important. Military expenditure remains an important element of the overall government expenditure in many African countries. On the other hand, numerous researchers perceive increased international trade to be one of the main factors promoting economic growth in these countries. The purpose of this paper is therefore to determine what effect, if any, exist between the level of military expenditure and international trade within a selection of 19 African countries. Applying an augmented gravity model to explore the relationship between military expenditure and international trade, evidence is found to confirm the existence of an inverse relationship between these two variables. It seems that the results are in line with the Liberal school of thought where trade is seen as an instrument of conflict prevention. Trade is therefore perceived as a symptom of peace and not a cause thereof. In general, conflict or rumors of conflict tend to reduce trade. If conflict did not impede trade, economic agents would be indifferent to risk. Many claim that trade brings peace, however, it seems that it is rather peace that brings trade. From the results, it appears that trade reduces the risk of conflict and that conflict reduces trade.

Keywords: African countries, conflict, international trade, military expenditure

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Authors: Meenakshi Verma, Mandeep Singh Bakshi, Kultar Singh

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Magnetic nanoparticles have received incredible importance in view of their diverse applications, which arise primarily due to their response to the external magnetic field. The magnetic behaviour of magnetic nanoparticles (NPs) helps them in numerous different ways. The most important amongst them is the ease with which they can be purified and also can be separated from the media in which they are present merely by applying an external magnetic field. This exceptional ease of separation of the magnetic NPs from an aqueous media enables them to use for extracting/removing metal pollutants from complex aqueous medium. Functionalized magnetic NPs can be subjected for the metallic impurities extraction if are favourably adsorbed on the NPs surfaces. We have successfully used the magnetic NPs as vehicles for gold and silver NPs removal from the complex fluids. The NPs loaded with gold and silver NPs pollutant fractions has been easily removed from the aqueous media by using external magnetic field. Similarly, we have used the magnetic NPs for extraction of protein from complex media and then constantly washed with pure water to eliminate the unwanted surface adsorbed components for quantitative estimation. The purified and protein loaded magnetic NPs are best analyzed with SDS Page to not only for characterization but also for separating the protein fractions. A collective review of the results indicates that we have synthesized surfactant coated iron oxide NPs and then functionalized these with selected materials. These surface active magnetic NPs work very well for the extraction of metallic NPs from the aqueous bulk and make the whole process environmentally sustainable. Also, magnetic NPs-Au/Ag/Pd hybrids have excellent protein extracting properties. They are much easier to use in order to extract the magnetic impurities as well as protein fractions under the effect of external magnetic field without any complex conventional purification methods.

Keywords: magnetic nanoparticles, protein, functionalized, extraction

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Authors: Gisele C. A. Martins, Leonardo A. Marcolin, Laurenn B. de Macedo, Francisco A. Rocco Lahr, Carlito Calil Jr

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The use and development of wood composite materials increased in the past few years. However, in Brazil there are some restrictions on these products regarding their use since it could be considered a potential risk in a fire situation. Thus, becomes evident the need for research aiming to fit these in safety standards. This study aims to evaluate the efficiency of two new fire retardant products produced by a Brazilian industry. Tests were performed on plywood panels of Pinus spp previously immersed, varying the products concentrations and compared with untreated samples. The test used to evaluate the flame spread in a panel was the modified Schlyter test. The product in question was proved efficient, before and after shutting off the burner. Comparing panels with the panels without treatment, there was a decrease of 400% of the height of the flame spread on the treated ones.

Keywords: fire retardant, flame spread, plywood, wood-based material

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Authors: V. Nigam, V. Nambiar

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Aegle Marmelos leaf has been used as a remedy for various gastrointestinal infections and lowering blood sugar level in traditional system of medicine in India due to the presence of various constituents such as flavonoids, tannins and alkaloids (eg. Aegelin, Marmelosin, Luvangetin).The objective of the present study was to evaluate the total antioxidant activity, total and individual phenol content of the wild and cultivated variety of Aegle marmelos leaves to assess the role of this plant in ethanomedicine in India. The methanolic extracts of the leaves were screened for total antioxidant capacity through Ferric Reducing Antioxidant Potential (FRAP) and 1, 1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) radical scavenging assay; Total Phenol content (TPC) through spectrophotometric technique based on Folin Ciocalteau assay and for qualitative estimation of phenols, High performance Liquid Chromatography was used. The TPC of wild and cultivated variety was 7.6% and 6.5% respectively whereas HPLC analysis for quantification of individual polyphenol revealed the presence of gallic acid, chlorogenic acid and Ferullic acid in wild variety whereas gallic acid, Ferullic acid and pyrocatechol in cultivated variety. FRAP values and IC 50 value (DPPH) for wild and cultivated variety was 14.65 μmol/l and 11.80μmol/l; 437 μg/ml and 620μg/ml respectively and thus it can be used as potential inhibitor of free radicals. The wild variety was having more antioxidant capacity than the cultivated one it can be exploited further for its therapeutic application. As Aegle marmelos is rich in antioxidant, it can be used as food additives to delay the oxidative deterioration of foods and as nutraceutical in medicinal formulation against degenerative diseases like diabetes.

Keywords: antioxidant activity, aegle marmelos, antidiabetic, nutraceutical

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Authors: S. Agheb, G. Ledwich, G.Walker, Z.Tong

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Frequency control has become more of concern for reliable operation of interconnected power systems due to the integration of low inertia renewable energy sources to the grid and their volatility. Also, in case of a sudden fault, the system has less time to recover before widespread blackouts. Electric Vehicles (EV)s have the potential to cooperate in the Emergency Frequency Regulation (EFR) by a nonlinear control of the power system in case of large disturbances. The time is not adequate to communicate with each individual EV on emergency cases, and thus, an aggregate model is necessary for a quick response to prevent from much frequency deviation and the occurrence of any blackout. In this work, an aggregate of EVs is modelled as a big virtual battery in each area considering various aspects of uncertainty such as the number of connected EVs and their initial State of Charge (SOC) as stochastic variables. A control law was proposed and applied to the aggregate model using Lyapunov energy function to maximize the rate of reduction of total kinetic energy in a two-area network after the occurrence of a fault. The control methods are primarily based on the charging/ discharging control of available EVs as shunt capacity in the distribution system. Three different cases were studied considering the locational aspect of the model with the virtual EV either in the center of the two areas or in the corners. The simulation results showed that EVs could help the generator lose its kinetic energy in a short time after a contingency. Earlier estimation of possible contributions of EVs can help the supervisory control level to transmit a prompt control signal to the subsystems such as the aggregator agents and the grid. Thus, the percentage of EVs contribution for EFR will be characterized in the future as the goal of this study.

Keywords: emergency frequency regulation, electric vehicle, EV, aggregation, Lyapunov energy function

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Authors: Krishna Raj Regmi

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A “Climate change adaptation and disaster risk management for sustainable agriculture” project was implemented in Nepal, a Himalayan country during 2008 to 2013 sponsored jointly by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Nepal. The paper is based on the results and findings of this joint pilot project. The climate change events such as increased intensity of erratic rains in short spells, trend of prolonged drought, gradual rise in temperature in the higher elevations and occurrence of cold and hot waves in Terai (lower plains) has led to flash floods, massive erosion in the hills particularly in Churia range and drying of water sources. These recurring natural and climate-induced disasters are causing heavy damages through sedimentation and inundation of agricultural lands, crops, livestock, infrastructures and rural settlements in the downstream plains and thus reducing agriculture productivity and food security in the country. About 65% of the cultivated land in Nepal is rainfed with drought-prone characteristics and stabilization of agricultural production and productivity in these tracts will be possible through adoption of rainfed and drought-tolerant technologies as well as efficient soil-water management by the local communities. The adaptation and mitigation technologies and options identified by the project for soil erosion, flash floods and landslide control are on-farm watershed management, sloping land agriculture technologies (SALT), agro-forestry practices, agri-silvi-pastoral management, hedge-row contour planting, bio-engineering along slopes and river banks, plantation of multi-purpose trees and management of degraded waste land including sandy river-bed flood plains. The stress tolerant technologies with respect to drought, floods and temperature stress for efficient utilization of nutrient, soil, water and other resources for increased productivity are adoption of stress tolerant crop varieties and breeds of animals, indigenous proven technologies, mixed and inter-cropping systems, system of rice/wheat intensification (SRI), direct rice seeding, double transplanting of rice, off-season vegetable production and regular management of nurseries, orchards and animal sheds. The alternate energy use options and resource conservation practices for use by local communities are installation of bio-gas plants and clean stoves (Chulla range) for mitigation of green house gas (GHG) emissions, use of organic manures and bio-pesticides, jatropha cultivation, green manuring in rice fields and minimum/zero tillage practices for marshy lands. The efficient water management practices for increasing productivity of crops and livestock are use of micro-irrigation practices, construction of water conservation and water harvesting ponds, use of overhead water tanks and Thai jars for rain water harvesting and rehabilitation of on-farm irrigation systems. Initiation of some works on community-based early warning system, strengthening of met stations and disaster database management has made genuine efforts in providing disaster-tailored early warning, meteorological and insurance services to the local communities. Contingent planning is recommended to develop coping strategies and capacities of local communities to adopt necessary changes in the cropping patterns and practices in relation to adverse climatic and disaster risk conditions. At the end, adoption of awareness raising and capacity development activities (technical and institutional) and networking on climate-induced disaster and risks through training, visits and knowledge sharing workshops, dissemination of technical know-how and technologies, conduct of farmers' field schools, development of extension materials and their displays are being promoted. However, there is still need of strong coordination and linkage between agriculture, environment, forestry, meteorology, irrigation, climate-induced pro-active disaster preparedness and research at the ministry, department and district level for up-scaling, implementation and institutionalization of climate change and disaster risk management activities and adaptation mitigation options in agriculture for sustainable livelihoods of the communities.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, disaster risk management, soil-water management practices, sustainable agriculture

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Authors: Mona Hejazi, Ali Motie Nasrabadi

Abstract:

Epilepsy is a persistent neurological disorder that affects more than 50 million people worldwide. Hence, there is a necessity to introduce an efficient prediction model for making a correct diagnosis of the epileptic seizure and accurate prediction of its type. In this study we consider how the Effective Connectivity (EC) patterns obtained from intracranial Electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings reveal information about the dynamics of the epileptic brain and can be used to predict imminent seizures, as this will enable the patients (and caregivers) to take appropriate precautions. We use this definition because we believe that effective connectivity near seizures begin to change, so we can predict seizures according to this feature. Results are reported on the standard Freiburg EEG dataset which contains data from 21 patients suffering from medically intractable focal epilepsy. Six channels of EEG from each patients are considered and effective connectivity using Directed Transfer Function (DTF) and Granger Causality (GC) methods is estimated. We concentrate on effective connectivity standard deviation over time and feature changes in five brain frequency sub-bands (Alpha, Beta, Theta, Delta, and Gamma) are compared. The performance obtained for the proposed scheme in predicting seizures is: average prediction time is 50 minutes before seizure onset, the maximum sensitivity is approximate ~80% and the false positive rate is 0.33 FP/h. DTF method is more acceptable to predict epileptic seizures and generally we can observe that the greater results are in gamma and beta sub-bands. The research of this paper is significantly helpful for clinical applications, especially for the exploitation of online portable devices.

Keywords: effective connectivity, Granger causality, directed transfer function, epilepsy seizure prediction, EEG

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Authors: Bartosz Piechowicz, Stanislaw Sadlo, Przemyslaw Grodzicki, Magdalena Podbielska

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Apples are popular fruits. They are eaten freshly and/or after processing. For instance Golden Delicious is an apple variety commonly used in production of foods for babies and toddlers. It is no wonder that complex analyses of the pesticide residue levels in those fruits have been carried out since eighties, and continued for the next years up to now. The results obtained were presented, usually as a teamwork, at the scientific sessions organised by the (IOR) Institute of Plant Protection-National Research Institute in Poznań and published in Scientific Works of the Institute (now Progress in Plant Protection/ Postępy w Ochronie Roślin) or Journal of Plant Protection Research, and in many non-periodical publications. These reports included studies carried out by IOR Laboratories in Poznań, Sośnicowice, Rzeszów and Bialystok. First detailed studies on the presence of pesticide residues in apple fruits by the laboratory in Rzeszów were published in 1991 in the article entitled 'The presence of pesticides in apples of late varieties from the area of south-eastern Poland in the years 1986-1989', in Annals of National Institute of Hygiene in Warsaw. These surveys gave the scientific base for business contacts between the Polish company Alima and the American company Gerber. At the beginning of XXI century, in Poland, systematic and complex studies on the deposition of pesticide residues in apples were initiated. First of all, the levels of active ingredients of plant protection products applied against storage diseases at 2-3 weeks before the harvest were determined. It is known that the above mentioned substances usually generate the highest residue levels. Also, the assessment of the fungicide residues in apples during their storage in controlled atmosphere and during their processing was carried out. Taking into account the need of actualisation the Maximum Residue Levels of pesticides, in force in Poland and in other European countries, and rationalisation of the ways of their determination, a lot of field tests on the behaviour of more important fungicides on the mature fruits just before their harvesting, were carried out. A rate of their disappearance and mathematical equation that showed the relationship between the residue level of any substance and the used dose, have been determined. The two parameters have allowed to evaluate the Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs) of pesticides, which were in force at that time, and to propose a coherent model of their determination in respect to the new substances. The obtained results were assessed in terms of the health risk for adult consumers and children, and to such determination of terms of treatment that mature apples could meet the rigorous level of 0.01 mg/kg.

Keywords: apple, disappearance, health risk, MRL, pesticide residue, research

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Authors: Ocsana Opris, Ildiko Lung, Maria L. Soran, Alexandra Ciorita, Lucian Copolovici

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The effects assessment of environmental stress factors on both crop and wild plants of nutritional value are a very important research topic. Continuously worldwide consumption of drugs leads to significant environmental pollution, thus generating environmental stress. Understanding the effects of the important drugs on plant composition and ultrastructural modification is still limited, especially at environmentally relevant concentrations. The aim of the present work was to investigate the influence of three non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) on chlorophylls content, carotenoids content, total polyphenols content, antioxidant capacity, and ultrastructure of orache (Atriplex patula L.) and spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.). All green leafy vegetables selected for this study were grown in controlled conditions and treated with solutions of different concentrations (0.1‒1 mg L⁻¹) of diclofenac, ibuprofen, and naproxen. After eight weeks of exposure of the plants to NSAIDs, the chlorophylls and carotenoids content were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with photodiode array and mass spectrometer detectors, total polyphenols and antioxidant capacity by ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy. Also, the ultrastructural analyses of the vegetables were performed using transmission electron microscopy in order to assess the influence of the selected NSAIDs on cellular organisms, mainly photosynthetic organisms (chloroplasts), energy supply organisms (mitochondria) and nucleus as a cellular metabolism coordinator. In comparison with the control plants, decreases in the content of chlorophylls were observed in the case of the Atriplex patula L. plants treated with ibuprofen (11-34%) and naproxen (25-52%). Also, the chlorophylls content from Spinacia oleracea L. was affected, the lowest decrease (34%) being obtained in the case of the treatment with naproxen (1 mg L⁻¹). Diclofenac (1 mg L⁻¹) affected the total polyphenols content (a decrease of 45%) of Atriplex patula L. and ibuprofen (1 mg L⁻¹) affected the total polyphenols content (a decrease of 20%) of Spinacia oleracea L. The results obtained also indicate a moderate reduction of carotenoids and antioxidant capacity in the treated plants, in comparison with the controls. The investigations by transmission electron microscopy demonstrated that the green leafy vegetables were affected by the selected NSAIDs. Thus, this research contributes to a better understanding of the adverse effects of these drugs on studied plants. Important to mention is that the dietary intake of these drugs contaminated plants, plants with important nutritional value, may also presume a risk to human health, but currently little is known about the fate of the drugs in plants and their effect on or risk to the ecosystem.

Keywords: abiotic stress, green leafy vegetables, pigments content, ultra structure

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Authors: Azadeh Rouhandeh, Chris Joslin, Zhen Qu, Yuu Ono

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The centre of rotation of the hip joint is needed for an accurate simulation of the joint performance in many applications such as pre-operative planning simulation, human gait analysis, and hip joint disorders. In human movement analysis, the hip joint center can be estimated using a functional method based on the relative motion of the femur to pelvis measured using reflective markers attached to the skin surface. The principal source of errors in estimation of hip joint centre location using functional methods is soft tissue artefacts due to the relative motion between the markers and bone. One of the main objectives in human movement analysis is the assessment of soft tissue artefact as the accuracy of functional methods depends upon it. Various studies have described the movement of soft tissue artefact invasively, such as intra-cortical pins, external fixators, percutaneous skeletal trackers, and Roentgen photogrammetry. The goal of this study is to present a non-invasive method to assess the displacements of the markers relative to the underlying bone using optical motion capture data and tissue thickness from ultrasound measurements during flexion, extension, and abduction (all with knee extended) of the hip joint. Results show that the artefact skin marker displacements are non-linear and larger in areas closer to the hip joint. Also marker displacements are dependent on the movement type and relatively larger in abduction movement. The quantification of soft tissue artefacts can be used as a basis for a correction procedure for hip joint kinematics.

Keywords: hip joint center, motion capture, soft tissue artefact, ultrasound depth measurement

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Authors: Trevor N. Haas, Thomas van der Kolf

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South Africa has some regions which are susceptible to moderate seismic activity. A peak ground acceleration of between 0.1g and 0.15g can be expected in the southern parts of the Western Cape. Unreinforced Masonry (URM) is commonly used as a construction material for 2 to 5 storey buildings in underprivileged areas in and around Cape Town. URM is typically regarded as the material most vulnerable to damage when subjected to earthquake excitation. In this study, a three-storey URM building was analysed by applying seven earthquake time-histories, which can be expected to occur in South Africa using a finite element approach. Experimental data was used to calibrate the in- and out-of-plane stiffness of the URM. The results indicated that tensile cracking of the in-plane piers was the dominant failure mode. It is concluded that URM buildings of this type are at risk of failure especially if sufficient ductility is not provided. The results also showed that connection failure must be investigated further.

Keywords: URM, seismic analysis, FEM, Cape Town

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Authors: N. Bourayou, A. -H. Meniai, A. Gouaoura

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The presence of salt can either raise or lower the distribution coefficient of a solute acetic acid in liquid- liquid equilibria. The coefficient of solute is defined as the ratio of the composition of solute in solvent rich phase to the composition of solute in diluents (water) rich phase. The phenomena are known as salting–out or salting-in, respectively. The effect of monovalent salt, sodium chloride and the bivalent salt, sodium sulfate on the distribution of acetic acid between 1-butanol and water at 298.15K were experimentally shown to be effective in modifying the liquid-liquid equilibrium of water/acetic acid/1-butanol system in favour of the solvent extraction of acetic acid from an aqueous solution with 1-butanol, particularly at high salt concentrations of both salts. All the two salts studied are found to have to salt out effect for acetic acid in varying degrees. The experimentally measured data were well correlated by Eisen-Joffe equation. NRTL model for solvent mixtures containing salts was able to provide good correlation of the present liquid-liquid equilibrium data. Using the regressed salt concentration coefficients for the salt-solvent interaction parameters and the solvent-solvent interaction parameters obtained from the same system without salt. The calculated phase equilibrium was in a quite good agreement with the experimental data, showing the ability of NRTL model to correlate salt effect on the liquid-liquid equilibrium.

Keywords: activity coefficient, Eisen-Joffe, NRTL model, sodium chloride

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Authors: Sina Kazemi, Farshid Torabi, Todd Peterson

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Drilling in shale formations is frequently time-consuming, challenging, and fraught with mechanical failures such as stuck pipes or hole packing off when the cutting removal rate is not sufficient to clean the bottom hole. Crossing the heavy oil shale and sand reservoirs with active shale and microfractures is generally associated with severe fluid losses causing a reduction in the rate of the cuttings removal. These circumstances compromise a well’s integrity and result in a lower rate of penetration (ROP). This study presents collective results of field studies and theoretical analysis conducted on data from South Pars and North Dome in an Iran-Qatar offshore field. Solutions to complications related to drilling in shale formations are proposed through systemically analyzing and applying modeling techniques to select field mud logging data. Field data measurements during actual drilling operations indicate that in a shale formation where the return flow of polymer mud was almost lost in the upper dolomite layer, the performance of hole cleaning and ROP progressively change when higher string rotations are initiated. Likewise, it was observed that this effect minimized the force of rotational torque and improved well integrity in the subsequent casing running. Given similar geologic conditions and drilling operations in reservoirs targeting shale as the producing zone like the Bakken formation within the Williston Basin and Lloydminster, Saskatchewan, a drill bench dynamic modeling simulation was used to simulate borehole cleaning efficiency and mud optimization. The results obtained by altering RPM (string revolution per minute) at the same pump rate and optimized mud properties exhibit a positive correlation with field measurements. The field investigation and developed model in this report show that increasing the speed of string revolution as far as geomechanics and drilling bit conditions permit can minimize the risk of mechanically stuck pipes while reaching a higher than expected ROP in shale formations. Data obtained from modeling and field data analysis, optimized drilling parameters, and hole cleaning procedures are suggested for minimizing the risk of a hole packing off and enhancing well integrity in shale reservoirs. Whereas optimization of ROP at a lower pump rate maintains the wellbore stability, it saves time for the operator while reducing carbon emissions and fatigue of mud motors and power supply engines.

Keywords: ROP, circulating density, drilling parameters, return flow, shale reservoir, well integrity

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Authors: Wafa Al Jabri

Abstract:

Background: In Middle Eastern Countries (MECs), there is a high prevalence of genetic blood disorders (GBDs), particularly sickle cell disease and thalassemia. The GBDs are considered a major public health concern that place a huge burden to individuals, families, communities, and health care systems. The high rates of consanguineous marriages, along with the unacceptable termination of at-risk pregnancy in MECs, reduce the possible solutions to control the high prevalence of GBDs. Since the early 1970s, most of MECs have started introducing premarital screening services (PSS) as a preventive measure to identify the asymptomatic carriers of GBDs and to provide genetic counseling to help couples plan for healthy families; yet, the success rate of PSS is very low. Purpose: This paper aims to highlight the factors that affect the success of PSS in MECs. Methods: An integrative review of articles located in CINAHL, PubMed, SCOPUS, and MedLine was carried out using the following terms: “premarital screening,” “success,” “effectiveness,” and “ genetic blood disorders”. Second, a hand search of the reference lists and Google searches were conducted to find studies that did not exist in the primary database searches. Only studies which are conducted in MECs and published after 2010 were included. Studies that were not published in English were excluded. Results: Eighteen articles were included in the review. The results showed that PSS in most of the MECs was successful in achieving its objective of identifying high-risk marriages; however, the service failed to meet its ultimate goal of reducing the prevalence of GBDs. Various factors seem to hinder the success of PSS, including poor public awareness, late timing of the screening, culture and social stigma, lack of prenatal diagnosis services and therapeutic abortion, emotional factors, religious beliefs, and lack of genetic counseling services. However, poor public awareness, late timing of the screening, religious misbeliefs, and the lack of adequate counseling services were the most common barriers identified. Conclusion and Implications: The review help in providing a framework for an effective preventive measure to reduce the prevalence of GBDs in MECS. This framework focuses primarily in overcoming the identified barriers by providing effective health education programs in collaboration with religious leaders, offering the screening test to young adults at an earlier stage, and tailoring the genetic counseling to consider people’s values, beliefs, and preferences.

Keywords: premarital screening, middle east, genetic blood disorders, factors

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Authors: Elhem Zaatir, Taher Hamza

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Several governments seek to implement gender parity on boards, but the results of doing so are not clear and could harm corporations and economies. The present paper aims to investigate the relationship between women’s presence on boards and firms’ performance in the context of the French listed firms during the quota period. A dynamic panel generalized method of moment estimation is applied to control the endogenous effect of board structure and reverse the causality impact of the financial performance. Our results show that the impact of gender diversity manifests in conflicting directions, positively affecting accounting performance and negatively influencing market performance. These results suggest that female directors create economic value, but the market discounts their impact. Apparently, they are subject to a biased evaluation by the market, which undervalues their presence on boards. Added to that, our results confirm a twofold nature of female representation in the French market. The effect of female directorship on firm performance varies with the affiliation of the directors. In other words, the positive impact of gender diversity on return on assets primarily originates from the positive effect of non-family-affiliated women directors on market performance rather than on the effect of family-affiliated women directors on ROA. Finally, according to our results, women’s demographic attributes namely the level of education and multiple directorships strongly and positively impact firm performance as measured by return on assets (ROA). Obviously, women directors seem to be appointed to the business case rather than as token directors.

Keywords: corporate governance, board of directors, women, gender diversity, demographic attributes, firm performance

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Authors: Navneet Kaur, S. D. Tiwari

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Magnetic nanoparticles possess fascinating properties which make their behavior unique in comparison to corresponding bulk materials. Superparamagnetism is one such interesting phenomenon exhibited only by small particles of magnetic materials. In this state, the thermal energy of particles become more than their magnetic anisotropy energy, and so particle magnetic moment vectors fluctuate between states of minimum energy. This situation is similar to paramagnetism of non-interacting ions and termed as superparamagnetism. The magnetization of such systems has been described by Langevin function. But, the estimated fit parameters, in this case, are found to be unphysical. It is due to non-consideration of particle size distribution. In this work, analysis of magnetization data on NiO nanoparticles is presented considering the effect of particle size distribution. Nanoparticles of NiO of two different sizes are prepared by heating freshly synthesized Ni(OH)₂ at different temperatures. Room temperature X-ray diffraction patterns confirm the formation of single phase of NiO. The diffraction lines are seen to be quite broad indicating the nanocrystalline nature of the samples. The average crystallite size are estimated to be about 6 and 8 nm. The samples are also characterized by transmission electron microscope. Magnetization of both sample is measured as function of temperature and applied magnetic field. Zero field cooled and field cooled magnetization are measured as a function of temperature to determine the bifurcation temperature. The magnetization is also measured at several temperatures in superparamagnetic region. The data are fitted to an appropriate expression considering a distribution in particle size following a least square fit procedure. The computer codes are written in PYTHON. The presented analysis is found to be very useful for estimating the particle size distribution present in the samples. The estimated distributions are compared with those determined from transmission electron micrographs.

Keywords: anisotropy, magnetization, nanoparticles, superparamagnetism

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