Search results for: Mathematical Modeling

Authors: Husham Bayazed

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Immune responses following surgical trauma play a pivotal role in predicting postoperative outcomes from healing and recovery to postoperative complications. Postoperative complications, including infections and protracted recovery, occur in a significant number of about 300 million surgeries performed annually worldwide. Complications cause personal suffering along with a significant economic burden on the healthcare system in any community. The accurate prediction of postoperative complications and patient-targeted interventions for their prevention remain major clinical provocations. Recent Findings: Recent studies are focusing on immune dysregulation mechanisms that occur in response to surgical trauma as a key determinant of postoperative complications. Antecedent studies mainly were plunging into the detection of inflammatory plasma markers, which facilitate in providing important clues regarding their pathogenesis. However, recent Single-cell technologies, such as mass cytometry or single-cell RNA sequencing, have markedly enhanced our ability to understand the immunological basis of postoperative immunological trauma complications and to identify their prognostic biological signatures. Summary: The advent of proteomic technologies has significantly advanced our ability to predict the risk of postoperative complications. Multiomic modeling of patients' immune states holds promise for the discovery of preoperative predictive biomarkers and providing patients and surgeons with information to improve surgical outcomes. However, more studies are required to accurately predict the risk of postoperative complications in individual patients.

Keywords: immune dysregulation, postoperative complications, surgical trauma, flow cytometry

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zenoozian

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The Persian Gulf is a bordering sea with an normal depth of 35 m and a supreme depth of 100 m near its narrow appearance. Its lengthen bathymetric axis divorces two main geological shires — the steady Arabian Foreland and the unbalanced Iranian Fold Belt — which are imitated in the conflicting shore and bathymetric morphologies of Arabia and Iran. The sediments were experimented with from 72 offshore positions through an oceanographic cruise in the winter of 2018. Throughout the observation era, several storms and river discharge actions happened, as well as the major flood on record since 1982. Suspended-sediment focus at all three sites varied in reaction to both wave resuspension and advection of river-derived sediments. We used hydrological models to evaluation and associate the wave height and inundation distance required to carriage the rocks inland. Our results establish that no known or possible storm happening on the Makran coast is accomplished of detaching and transporting the boulders. The fluid mud consequently is conveyed seaward due to gravitational forcing. The measured sediment focus and velocity profiles on the shelf provide a strong indication to provision this assumption. The sediment model is joined with a 3D hydrodynamic module in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model that offers data on estuarine rotation and salinity transport under normal temperature conditions. 3-D sediment transport from model simulations specify dynamic sediment resuspension and transport near zones of highly industrious oyster beds.

Keywords: sediment transport, storm, coast, fluid dynamics

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Authors: Atwari Rawani, Suresh Prasad Sharma, K. D. P. Singh

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In this paper, an analytical investigation based on energy and exergy analysis of the parabolic trough collector (PTC) with alternate clockwise and counter-clockwise twisted tape inserts in the absorber tube has been presented. For fully developed flow under quasi-steady state conditions, energy equations have been developed in order to analyze the rise in fluid temperature, thermal efficiency, entropy generation and exergy efficiency. Also the effect of system and operating parameters on performance have been studied. A computer program, based on mathematical models is developed in C++ language to estimate the temperature rise of fluid for evaluation of performances under specified conditions. For numerical simulations four different twist ratio, x = 2,3,4,5 and mass flow rate 0.06 kg/s to 0.16 kg/s which cover the Reynolds number range of 3000 - 9000 is considered. This study shows that twisted tape inserts when used shows great promise for enhancing the performance of PTC. Results show that for x=1, Nusselt number/heat transfer coefficient is found to be 3.528 and 3.008 times over plain absorber of PTC at mass flow rate of 0.06 kg/s and 0.16 kg/s respectively; while corresponding enhancement in thermal efficiency is 12.57% and 5.065% respectively. Also the exergy efficiency has been found to be 10.61% and 10.97% and enhancement factor is 1.135 and 1.048 for same set of conditions.

Keywords: exergy efficiency, twisted tape ratio, turbulent flow, useful heat gain

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Authors: Ayse Cobanoglu

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Working memory can be defined as a workspace that holds and regulates active information in mind. This study investigates individual changes in children's working memory from kindergarten to first grade. The main purpose of the study is whether parental discipline methods and child impulsive/overactive behaviors affect children's working memory initial status and growth rate, controlling for gender, minority status, and socioeconomic status (SES). A linear growth curve model with the first four waves of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort of 2011 (ECLS-K:2011) is performed to analyze the individual growth of children's working memory longitudinally (N=3915). Results revealed that there is a significant variation among students' initial status in the kindergarten fall semester as well as the growth rate during the first two years of schooling. While minority status, SES, and children's overactive/impulsive behaviors influenced children's initial status, only SES and minority status were significantly associated with the growth rate of working memory. For parental discipline methods, such as giving a warning and ignoring the child's negative behavior, are also negatively associated with initial working memory scores. Following that, students' working memory growth rate is examined, and students with lower SES as well as minorities showed a faster growth pattern during the first two years of schooling. However, the findings of parental disciplinary methods on working memory growth rates were mixed. It can be concluded that schooling helps low-SES minority students to develop their working memory.

Keywords: growth curve modeling, impulsive/overactive behaviors, parenting, working memory

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Authors: Frimpong Kyeremeh, Albert Y. Appiah, Ben B. K. Ayawli

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Energy storage system (ESS) is an essential part of a microgrid (MG) because of its immense benefits to the economics and the stability of MG. For a direct current (DC) MG (DCMG) in which the generating units are mostly variable renewable energy generators, DC bus voltage fluctuation is inevitable; hence ESS is vital in managing the mismatch between load demand and generation. Besides, to accrue the maximum benefits of ESS in the microgrid, there is the need for proper sizing and location of the ESSs. In this paper, a performance comparison is made between two configurations of ESS; distributed battery energy storage system (D-BESS) and an aggregated (centralized) battery energy storage system (A-BESS), on the basis of stability and operational cost for a DCMG. The configuration consists of four households with rooftop PV panels and a wind turbine. The objective is to evaluate and analyze the technical efficiencies, cost effectiveness as well as controllability of each configuration. The MG is first modelled with MATLAB Simulink then, a mathematical model is used to determine the optimal size of the BESS that minimizes the total operational cost of the MG. The performance of the two configurations would be tested with simulations. The two configurations are expected to reduce DC bus voltage fluctuations, but in the cases of voltage stability and optimal cost, the best configuration performance will be determined at the end of the research. The work is in progress, and the result would help MG designers and operators to make the best decision on the use of BESS for DCMG configurations.

Keywords: aggregated energy storage system, DC bus voltage, DC microgrid, distributed battery energy storage, stability

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Authors: Kassahun Birhanu Tadesse, Megersa Olumana Dinka

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Reliable future river flow information is basic for planning and management of any river systems. For data scarce river system having only a river flow records like the Waterval River, a univariate time series models are appropriate for river flow forecasting. In this study, a univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied for forecasting Waterval River flow using GRETL statistical software. Mean monthly river flows from 1960 to 2016 were used for modeling. Different unit root tests and Mann-Kendall trend analysis were performed to test the stationarity of the observed flow time series. The time series was differenced to remove the seasonality. Using the correlogram of seasonally differenced time series, different SARIMA models were identified, their parameters were estimated, and diagnostic check-up of model forecasts was performed using white noise and heteroscedasticity tests. Finally, based on minimum Akaike Information (AIc) and Hannan-Quinn (HQc) criteria, SARIMA (3, 0, 2) x (3, 1, 3)12 was selected as the best model for Waterval River flow forecasting. Therefore, this model can be used to generate future river information for water resources development and management in Waterval River system. SARIMA model can also be used for forecasting other similar univariate time series with seasonality characteristics.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity, stationarity test, trend analysis, validation, white noise

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Authors: Panupong Makvichian

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Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is nowadays a common technology that improves navigation functions in our life. Additionally, GNSS is also being employed on behalf of an accurate atmospheric sensor these times. Meteorology is a practical application of GNSS, which is unnoticeable in the background of people’s life. GNSS Precise Point Positioning (PPP) is a positioning method that requires data from a single dual-frequency receiver and precise information about satellite positions and satellite clocks. In addition, careful attention to mitigate various error sources is required. All the above data are combined in a sophisticated mathematical algorithm. At this point, the research is going to demonstrate how GNSS and PPP method is capable to provide high-precision estimates, such as 3D positions or Zenith tropospheric delays (ZTDs). ZTDs combined with pressure and temperature information allows us to estimate the water vapor in the atmosphere as precipitable water vapor (PWV). If the process is replicated for a network of GNSS sensors, we can create thematic maps that allow extract water content information in any location within the network area. All of the above are possible thanks to the advances in GNSS data processing. Therefore, we are able to use GNSS data for climatic trend analysis and acquisition of the further knowledge about the atmospheric water content.

Keywords: GNSS, precise point positioning, Zenith tropospheric delays, precipitable water vapor

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: conditional generative adversarial net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series

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Authors: Tasneem Halawani, Yamen Khateeb

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With customers’ ever-increasing expectations for fast services provisioning for all their business needs, information technology (IT) organizations, as business partners, have to cope with this demanding environment and deliver their services in the most effective and efficient way. The purpose of this paper is to identify optimization and automation opportunities for the top requested IT services in a heterogenic digital environment and widely spread customer base. In collaboration with systems, processes, and subject matter experts (SMEs), the processes in scope were approached by analyzing four-year related historical data, identifying and surveying stakeholders, modeling the as-is processes, and studying systems integration/automation capabilities. This effort resulted in identifying several pain areas, including standardization, unnecessary customer and IT involvement, manual steps, systems integration, and performance measurement. These pain areas were addressed by standardizing the top five requested IT services, eliminating/automating 43 steps, and utilizing a single platform for end-to-end process execution. In conclusion, the optimization of IT service request processes in a heterogenic digital environment and widely spread customer base is challenging, yet achievable without compromising the service quality and customers’ added value. Further studies can focus on measuring the value of the eliminated/automated process steps to quantify the enhancement impact. Moreover, a similar approach can be utilized to optimize other IT service requests, with a focus on business criticality.

Keywords: automation, customer value, heterogenic, integration, IT services, optimization, processes

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Authors: Penrug Pengsombut, Worawut Hamarn, Teerawuth Suwannasri, Kittiphong Songrukkiat, Kanatip Ratanachoo

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PTT Public Company Limited or simply PTT has played an important role in strengthening national energy security of the Kingdom of Thailand by transporting natural gas to customers in power, industrial and commercial sectors since 1981. PTT has been constructing and operating natural gas pipeline system of over 4,500-km network length both onshore and offshore laid through different area classifications i.e., marine, forest, agriculture, rural, urban, and city areas. During project development phase, an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is conducted and submitted to the Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning (ONEP) for approval before project construction commencement. Knowledge and experiences gained and revealed from EIA in the past projects definitely are developed to further advance EIA study process for newly 5th Transmission Natural Gas Pipeline Project (5TP) with approximately 415 kilometers length. The preferred pipeline route is selected and justified by SMARTi map, an advance digital one-map platform with consists of multiple layers geographic and environmental information. Sensitive area impact focus (SAIF) is a practicable impact assessment methodology which appropriate for a particular long distance infrastructure project such as 5TP. An environmental modeling simulation is adopted into SAIF methodology for impact quantified in all sensitive areas whereas other area along pipeline right-of-ways is typically assessed as an impact representative. Resulting time and cost deduction is beneficial to project for early start.

Keywords: environmental impact assessment, EIA, natural gas pipeline, sensitive area impact focus, SAIF

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Authors: Sunyoung Park

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Context: Talent management is a strategic approach that has received considerable attention in recent years to improve employee competency and organizational performance in many organizations. The implementation of talent management involves identifying objectives and positions within the organization, developing a pool of high-potential employees, and establishing appropriate HR functions to promote high employee and organizational performance. This study aims to investigate the relationship between talent management, HR functions, employee competency, and organizational performance in the South Korean context. Research Aim: The main objective of this study is to investigate the structural relationships among talent management, human resources (HR) functions, employee competency, and organizational performance. Methodology: To achieve the research aim, this study used a quantitative research method. Specifically, a total of 1,478 responses were analyzed using structural equation modeling based on data obtained from the Human Capital Corporate Panel (HCCP) survey in South Korea. Findings: The study revealed that talent management has a positive influence on HR functions and employee competency. Additionally, HR functions directly affect employee competency and organizational performance. Employee competency was found to be related to organizational performance. Moreover, talent management and HR functions indirectly affect organizational performance through employee competency. Theoretical Importance: This study provides empirical evidence of the relationship between talent management, HR functions, employee competency, and organizational performance in the South Korean context. The findings suggest that organizations should focus on developing appropriate talent management and HR functions to improve employee competency, which, in turn, will lead to better organizational performance. Moreover, the study contributes to the existing literature by emphasizing the importance of the relationship between talent management and HR functions in improving organizational performance.

Keywords: employee competency, HR functions, organizational performance, talent management

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Authors: Emery A. Coppola Jr., Suna Cinar, Ferenc Szidarovszky

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Over-pumping of groundwater resources is a serious problem world-wide. In addition to depleting this valuable resource, hydraulically connected sensitive ecological resources like wetlands and surface water bodies are often impacted and even destroyed by over-pumping. Effectively managing groundwater in a way that satisfy human demand while preserving natural resources is a daunting challenge that will only worsen with growing human populations and climate change. As presented in this paper, a numerical flow model developed for a hypothetical but realistic groundwater/surface water system was combined with formal optimization. Response coefficients were used in an optimization management model to maximize groundwater pumping in a complex, multi-layered aquifer system while protecting against groundwater over-draft, streamflow depletion, and wetland impacts. Pumping optimization was performed for different constraint sets that reflect different resource protection preferences, yielding significantly different optimal pumping solutions. A sensitivity analysis on the optimal solutions was performed on select response coefficients to identify differences between wet and dry periods. Stochastic optimization was also performed, where uncertainty associated with changing irrigation demand due to changing weather conditions are accounted for. One of the strengths of this optimization approach is that it can efficiently and accurately identify superior management strategies that minimize risk and adverse environmental impacts associated with groundwater pumping under different hydrologic conditions.

Keywords: numerical groundwater flow modeling, water management optimization, groundwater overdraft, streamflow depletion

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Authors: M. Ibrahim Ali, M. El Dawi, M. A. Mohamed Ali

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In this study, the use of magnetic gradient survey, and the geoelectrical ground methods used together to explore archaeological features in Nuri’s pyramids area. Research methods used and the procedures and methodologies have taken full right during the study. The magnetic survey method was used to search for archaeological features using (Geoscan Fluxgate Gradiometer (FM36)). The study area was divided into a number of squares (networks) exactly equal (20 * 20 meters). These squares were collected at the end of the study to give a major network for each region. Networks also divided to take the sample using nets typically equal to (0.25 * 0.50 meter), in order to give a more specific archaeological features with some small bipolar anomalies that caused by buildings built from fired bricks. This definition is important to monitor many of the archaeological features such as rooms and others. This main network gives us an integrated map displayed for easy presentation, and it also allows for all the operations required using (Geoscan Geoplot software). The parallel traverse is the main way to take readings of the magnetic survey, to get out the high-quality data. The study area is very rich in old buildings that vary from small to very large. According to the proportion of the sand dunes and the loose soil, most of these buildings are not visible from the surface. Because of the proportion of the sandy dry soil, there is no connection between the ground surface and the electrodes. We tried to get electrical readings by adding salty water to the soil, but, unfortunately, we failed to confirm the magnetic readings with electrical readings as previously planned.

Keywords: archaeological features, independent grids, magnetic gradient, Nuri pyramid

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Authors: Dorit Olenik-Shemesh, Tali Heiman

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The rapid increase in the massive use of the internet in recent yearshas led to an increase in the prevalence of a phenomenon called 'Problematic Internet use' (PIU), an emerging, growing health problem, especially during adolescents, that poses a challenge for mental health research and practitioners. Problematic Internet use (PIU) is defined as an excessive overuse of the internet, including an inability to control time spent on the internet, cognitivepreoccupation with the Internet, and continued use in spite of the adverse consequences, which may lead to psychological, social, and academic difficulties in one's life and daily functioning. However, little is known about the nature of the nexusbetween PIU and subjective well-being among adolescents. The main purpose of the current study was to explore in depth the network of connections between PIU, sense of well-being, and fourpersonal-emotional factors (resilience, self-control, depressive mood, and loneliness) that may mediate these relationships. A total sample of 433 adolescents, 214 (49.4%) girls and 219 (50.6%) boys between the ages of 12–17 (mean = 14.9, SD = 2.16), completed self-reportquestionnaires relating to the study variables. In line with the hypothesis, analysis of a Structural Equation modeling (SEM) revealed the main following results: high levels of PIU predicted low levels of well-being among adolescents. In addition, low levels of resilience and high levels of depressivemood (together), as well as low levels of self control and high levels of depressivemood (together), as well as low levels of resilience and high levels of loneliness, mediated the relationships between PIU and well-being. In general, girls were found to be higher in PIU and inresilience than boys. The study results revealed specific implications for developing intervention programs for adolescents in the context of PIU; aiming at more balanced adjusted use of the Internet along withpreventingthe decrease in well being.

Keywords: probelmatic inetrent Use, well-being, adolescents, SEM model

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Authors: Horng-Ji Lai

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The intuitive design features and friendly interface of smartphone attract older adults. In Taiwan, many senior education institutes offer smartphone training courses for older adult learners who are interested in learning this innovative technology. It is expected that the training courses can help them to enjoy the benefits of using smartphone and increase their life satisfaction. Therefore, it is important to investigate the factors that influence older adults’ behavior of using smartphone. The purpose of the research was to develop and test a research model that investigates the factors (self-efficacy, social connection, the need to seek health information, and the need to seek financial information) affecting older adult learners’ Internet behaviour and their life satisfaction with use of smartphone. Also, this research sought to identify the relationship between the proposed variables. Survey method was used to collect research data. A Structural Equation Modeling was performed using Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression for data exploration and model estimation. The participants were 394 older adult learners from smartphone training courses in active aging learning centers located in central Taiwan. The research results revealed that self-efficacy significantly affected older adult learner’ social connection, the need to seek health information, and the need to seek financial information. The construct of social connection yielded a positive influence in respondents’ life satisfaction. The implications of these results for practice and future research are also discussed.

Keywords: older adults, smartphone, internet behaviour, life satisfaction

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Authors: Yee Hooi Min, Abdul Hadi, M. N., A. G. Kay Dora

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Form-finding has to be carried out for tensioned fabric structure in order to determine the initial equilibrium shape under prescribed support condition and pre-stress pattern. Tensioned fabric structures are normally designed to be in the form of equal tensioned surface. Tensioned fabric structure is highly suited to be used for realizing surfaces of complex or new forms. However, research study on a new form as a tensioned fabric structure has not attracted much attention. Another source of inspiration minimal surface which could be adopted as form for tensioned fabric structure is very crucial. The aim of this study is to propose initial equilibrium shape of tensioned fabric structures in the form of Monkey Saddle. Computational form-finding is frequently used to determine the possible form of uniformly stressed surfaces. A tensioned fabric structure must curve equally in opposite directions to give the resulting surface a three dimensional stability. In an anticlastic doubly curved surface, the sum of all positive and all negative curvatures is zero. This study provides an alternative choice for structural designer to consider the Monkey Saddle applied in tensioned fabric structures. The results on factors affecting initial equilibrium shape can serve as a reference for proper selection of surface parameter for achieving a structurally viable surface. Such in-sight will lead to improvement of rural basic infrastructure, economic gains, sustainability of built environment and green technology initiative.

Keywords: anticlastic, curvatures, form-finding, initial equilibrium shape, minimal surface, tensioned fabric structure

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Authors: M. A. Fouad, M. A. Badr, Z. S. Abd El-Rehim, Taher Halawa, Mahmoud Bayoumi, M. M. Ibrahim

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Renewable energy-based micro-grids are presently attracting significant consideration. The smart grid system is presently considered a reliable solution for the expected deficiency in the power required from future power systems. The purpose of this study is to determine the optimal components sizes of a micro-grid, investigating technical and economic performance with the environmental impacts. The micro grid load is divided into two small factories with electricity, both on-grid and off-grid modes are considered. The micro-grid includes photovoltaic cells, back-up diesel generator wind turbines, and battery bank. The estimated load pattern is 76 kW peak. The system is modeled and simulated by MATLAB/Simulink tool to identify the technical issues based on renewable power generation units. To evaluate system economy, two criteria are used: the net present cost and the cost of generated electricity. The most feasible system components for the selected application are obtained, based on required parameters, using HOMER simulation package. The results showed that a Wind/Photovoltaic (W/PV) on-grid system is more economical than a Wind/Photovoltaic/Diesel/Battery (W/PV/D/B) off-grid system as the cost of generated electricity (COE) is 0.266 $/kWh and 0.316 $/kWh, respectively. Considering the cost of carbon dioxide emissions, the off-grid will be competitive to the on-grid system as COE is found to be (0.256 $/kWh, 0.266 $/kWh), for on and off grid systems.

Keywords: renewable energy sources, micro-grid system, modeling and simulation, on/off grid system, environmental impacts

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Authors: Emmanuel Agunloye, Asterios Gavriilidis, Luca Mazzei

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Gold nanoparticles are commonly synthesized by reducing chloroauric acid with sodium citrate. This method, referred to as the citrate method, can produce spherical gold nanoparticles (NPs) in the size range 10-150 nm. Gold NPs of this size are useful in many applications. However, the NPs are usually polydisperse and irreproducible. A better understanding of the synthesis mechanisms is thus required. This work thoroughly investigated the only model that describes the synthesis. This model combines mass and population balance equations, describing the NPs synthesis through a sequence of chemical reactions. Chloroauric acid reacts with sodium citrate to form aurous chloride and dicarboxy acetone. The latter organizes aurous chloride in a nucleation step and concurrently degrades into acetone. The unconsumed precursor then grows the formed nuclei. However, depending on the pH, both the precursor and the reducing agent react differently thus affecting the synthesis. In this work, we investigated the model for different conditions of pH, temperature and initial reactant concentrations. To solve the model, we used Parsival, a commercial numerical code, whilst to test it, we considered various conditions studied experimentally by different researchers, for which results are available in the literature. The model poorly predicted the experimental data. We believe that this is because the model does not account for the acid-base properties of both chloroauric acid and sodium citrate.

Keywords: citrate method, gold nanoparticles, Parsival, population balance equations, Turkevich organizer theory

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Authors: M. O. Adeniyi, R. T. Akinnubi

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The parameterization of turbulent heat fluxes is needed for modeling land-atmosphere interactions in Global Climate Models (GCMs). However, current GCMs still have difficulties with producing reliable turbulent heat fluxes for humid tropical regions, which may be due to inadequate parameterization of the roughness lengths for momentum (z0m) and heat (z0h) transfer. These roughness lengths are usually expressed in term of excess resistance factor (κB^(-1)), and this factor is used to account for different resistances for momentum and heat transfers. In this paper, a more appropriate excess resistance factor (〖 κB〗^(-1)) suitable for low wind speed condition was developed and incorporated into the aerodynamic resistance approach (ARA) in the GCMs. Also, the performance of various standard GCMs κB^(-1) schemes developed for high wind speed conditions were assessed. Based on the in-situ surface heat fluxes and profile measurements of wind speed and temperature from Nigeria Micrometeorological Experimental site (NIMEX), new κB^(-1) was derived through application of the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory and Brutsaert theoretical model for heat transfer. Turbulent flux parameterizations with this new formula provides better estimates of heat fluxes when compared with others estimated using existing GCMs κB^(-1) schemes. The derived κB^(-1) MBE and RMSE in the parameterized QH ranged from -1.15 to – 5.10 Wm-2 and 10.01 to 23.47 Wm-2, while that of QE ranged from - 8.02 to 6.11 Wm-2 and 14.01 to 18.11 Wm-2 respectively. The derived 〖 κB〗^(-1) gave better estimates of QH than QE during daytime. The derived 〖 κB〗^(-1)=6.66〖 Re〗_*^0.02-5.47, where Re_* is the Reynolds number. The derived κB^(-1) scheme which corrects a well documented large overestimation of turbulent heat fluxes is therefore, recommended for most regional models within the tropic where low wind speed is prevalent.

Keywords: humid, tropic, excess resistance factor, overestimation, turbulent heat fluxes

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Authors: Rafael Alvarenga, Hubert Herbaux, Laurent Linguet

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The uncertainty concerning the power production of intermittent renewable energy is one of the main barriers to the integration of such assets into the power grid. Efforts have thus been made to develop methods to quantify this uncertainty, allowing producers to ensure more reliable and profitable engagements related to their future power delivery. Even though a diversity of probabilistic approaches was proposed in the literature giving promising results, the added value of adopting such methods for scheduling intermittent power plants is still unclear. In this study, the profits obtained by a decision-making model used to optimally schedule an existing PV power plant connected to batteries are compared when the model is fed with deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated with two of the most recent methods proposed in the literature. Moreover, deterministic forecasts with different accuracy levels were used in the experiments, testing the utility and the capability of probabilistic methods of modeling the progressively increasing uncertainty. Even though probabilistic approaches are unquestionably developed in the recent literature, the results obtained through a study case show that deterministic forecasts still provide the best performance if accurate, ensuring a gain of 14% on final profits compared to the average performance of probabilistic models conditioned to the same forecasts. When the accuracy of deterministic forecasts progressively decreases, probabilistic approaches start to become competitive options until they completely outperform deterministic forecasts when these are very inaccurate, generating 73% more profits in the case considered compared to the deterministic approach.

Keywords: PV power forecasting, uncertainty quantification, optimal scheduling, power systems

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Authors: Ouahiba Taamallah, Tarek Litim

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The study deals with the burnishing effect of AISI 52100 steel and parameters influence (Py, i and f on surface integrity. The results show that the optimal effects are closely related to the treatment parameters. With a 92% improvement in roughness, SB can be defined as a finishing operation within the machining range. Due to 85% gain in consolidation rate, this treatment constitutes an efficient process for work-hardening of material. In addition, a statistical study based on regression and Taguchi's design has made it possible to develop mathematical models to predict output responses according to the studied burnishing parameters. Response Surface Methodology RSM showed a simultaneous influence of the burnishing parameters and to observe the optimal parameters of the treatment. ANOVA Analysis of results led to validate the prediction model with a determination coefficient R2=94.60% and R2=93.41% for surface roughness and micro-hardness, respectively. Furthermore, a multi-objective optimization allowed to identify a regime characterized by P=20 Kgf, i=5 passes and f=0.08 mm.rev-1, which favors minimum surface roughness and a maximum of micro-hardness. The result was validated by a composite desirability D_i=1 for both surface roughness and microhardness, respectively. Applying optimal parameters, burnishing showed its beneficial effects in fatigue resistance, especially for imposed loading in the low cycle fatigue of the material where the lifespan increased by 90%.

Keywords: AISI 52100 steel, burnishing, Taguchi, fatigue

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Authors: Zahreddine Hafsi, Manoranjan Mishra , Sami Elaoud

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Ensuring the maximum recovery rate of oil from reservoir rocks is a challenging task that requires preliminary numerical analysis of different techniques used to enhance the recovery process. After conventional oil recovery processes and in order to retrieve oil left behind after the primary recovery phase, water flooding in one of several techniques used for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). In this research work, EOR via water flooding is numerically modeled, and hydrodynamic instabilities resulted from immiscible oil-water flow in reservoir rocks are investigated. An oil reservoir is a porous medium consisted of many fractures of tiny dimensions. For modeling purposes, the oil reservoir is considered as a collection of capillary tubes which provides useful insights into how fluids behave in the reservoir pore spaces. Equations governing oil-water flow in oil reservoir rocks are developed and numerically solved following a finite element scheme. Numerical results are obtained using Comsol Multiphysics software. The two phase Darcy module of COMSOL Multiphysics allows modelling the imbibition process by the injection of water (as wetting phase) into an oil reservoir. Van Genuchten, Brooks Corey and Levrett models were considered as retention models and obtained flow configurations are compared, and the governing parameters are discussed. For the considered retention models it was found that onset of instabilities viz. fingering phenomenon is highly dependent on the capillary pressure as well as the boundary conditions, i.e., the inlet pressure and the injection velocity.

Keywords: capillary pressure, EOR process, immiscible flow, numerical modelling

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Authors: Isha Saxena, Behzad Kazemtabrizi, Matthias C. M. Troffaes, Christopher Crabtree

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The calculations done at the beginning of the life of a wind farm are rarely reliable, which makes it important to conduct research and study the failure and repair rates of the wind turbines under various conditions. This miscalculation happens because the current models make a simplifying assumption that the failure/repair rate remains constant over time. This means that the reliability function is exponential in nature. This research aims to create a more accurate model using sensory data and a data-driven approach. The data cleaning and data processing is done by comparing the Power Curve data of the wind turbines with SCADA data. This is then converted to times to repair and times to failure timeseries data. Several different mathematical functions are fitted to the times to failure and times to repair data of the wind turbine components using Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Posterior expectation method for Bayesian Parameter Estimation. Initial results indicate that two parameter Weibull function and exponential function produce almost identical results. Further analysis is being done using the complex system analysis considering the failures of each electrical and mechanical component of the wind turbine. The aim of this project is to perform a more accurate reliability analysis that can be helpful for the engineers to schedule maintenance and repairs to decrease the downtime of the turbine.

Keywords: reliability, bayesian parameter inference, maximum likelihood estimation, weibull function, SCADA data

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Haydar Kepekçi, Baha Zafer, Hasan Rıza Güven

Abstract:

Noise disturbance is one of the major factors considered in the fast development of aircraft technology. This paper reviews the flow field, which is examined on the 2D NACA0015 and 3D NACA0012 blade profile using SST k-ω turbulence model to compute the unsteady flow field. We inserted the time-dependent flow area variables in Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings (FW-H) equations as an input and Sound Pressure Level (SPL) values will be computed for different angles of attack (AoA) from the microphone which is positioned in the computational domain to investigate effect of augmentation of unsteady 2D and 3D airfoil region noise level. The computed results will be compared with experimental data which are available in the open literature. As results; one of the calculated Cp is slightly lower than the experimental value. This difference could be due to the higher Reynolds number of the experimental data. The ANSYS Fluent software was used in this study. Fluent includes well-validated physical modeling capabilities to deliver fast, accurate results across the widest range of CFD and multiphysics applications. This paper includes a study which is on external flow over an airfoil. The case of 2D NACA0015 has approximately 7 million elements and solves compressible fluid flow with heat transfer using the SST turbulence model. The other case of 3D NACA0012 has approximately 3 million elements.

Keywords: 3D blade profile, noise disturbance, aeroacoustics, Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings (FW-H) equations, k-ω-SST turbulence model

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Michael G. Pantelyat

Abstract:

Fundamental basics of pure and applied research in the area of magneto-thermo-mechanical numerical analysis and design of innovative electromagnetic devices (modern induction heaters, novel thermoelastic actuators, rotating electrical machines, induction cookers, electrophysical devices) are elaborated. Thus, mathematical models of magneto-thermo-mechanical processes in electromagnetic devices taking into account main interactions of interrelated phenomena are developed. In addition, graphical representation of coupled (multiphysics) phenomena under consideration is proposed. Besides, numerical techniques for nonlinear problems solution are developed. On this base, effective numerical algorithms for solution of actual problems of practical interest are proposed, validated and implemented in applied 2D and 3D computer codes developed. Many applied problems of practical interest regarding modern electrical engineering devices are numerically solved. Investigations of the influences of various interrelated physical phenomena (temperature dependences of material properties, thermal radiation, conditions of convective heat transfer, contact phenomena, etc.) on the accuracy of the electromagnetic, thermal and structural analyses are conducted. Important practical recommendations on the choice of rational structures, materials and operation modes of electromagnetic devices under consideration are proposed and implemented in industry.

Keywords: electromagnetic devices, multiphysics, numerical analysis, simulation and design

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Nabila Mohamed, Santiago Aparicio, Bahman Tohidi, Mert Atilhan

Abstract:

Qatar's one of the biggest problem in processing its natural resource, which is natural gas, is the often occurring blockage in the pipelines caused due to uncontrolled gas hydrate formation in the pipelines. Several millions of dollars are being spent at the process site to dehydrate the blockage safely by using chemical inhibitors. We aim to establish national database, which addresses the physical conditions that promotes Qatari natural gas to form gas hydrates in the pipelines. Moreover, we aim to design and test novel hydrate inhibitors that are suitable for Qatari natural gas and its processing facilities. From these perspectives we are aiming to provide more effective and sustainable reservoir utilization and processing of Qatari natural gas. In this work, we present the initial findings of a QNRF funded project, which deals with the natural gas hydrate formation characteristics of Qatari type gas in both experimental (PVTx) and computational (molecular simulations) methods. We present the data from the two fully automated apparatus: a gas hydrate autoclave and a rocking cell. Hydrate equilibrium curves including growth/dissociation conditions for multi-component systems for several gas mixtures that represent Qatari type natural gas with and without the presence of well known kinetic and thermodynamic hydrate inhibitors. Ionic liquids were designed and used for testing their inhibition performance and their DFT and molecular modeling simulation results were also obtained and compared with the experimental results. Results showed significant performance of ionic liquids with up to 0.5 % in volume with up to 2 to 4 0C inhibition at high pressures.

Keywords: gas hydrates, natural gas, ionic liquids, inhibition, thermodynamic inhibitors, kinetic inhibitors

Procedia PDF Downloads 1301

Authors: Nadama Kumar, P. Parthiban, T. Niranjan

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In the present paper, we propose an incorporated approach for 3PL supplier choice that suits the distinctive strategic needs of the outsourcing organization in southern part of India. Four fundamental criteria have been used in particular Performance, IT, Service and Intangible. These are additionally subdivided into fifteen sub-criteria. The proposed strategy coordinates Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and Non-additive Fuzzy Integral strategies. The presentation of fluffiness manages the unclearness of human judgments. The SEM approach has been used to approve the determination criteria for the proposed show though the Non-additive Fuzzy Integral approach uses the SEM display contribution to assess a supplier choice score. The case organization has a exclusive vertically integrated assembly that comprises of several companies focusing on a slight array of the value chain. To confirm manufacturing and logistics proficiency, it significantly relies on 3PL suppliers to attain supply chain superiority. However, 3PL supplier selection is an intricate decision-making procedure relating multiple selection criteria. The goal of this work is to recognize the crucial 3PL selection criteria by using the non-additive fuzzy integral approach. Unlike the outmoded multi criterion decision-making (MCDM) methods which frequently undertake independence among criteria and additive importance weights, the nonadditive fuzzy integral is an effective method to resolve the dependency among criteria, vague information, and vital fuzziness of human judgment. In this work, we validate an empirical case that engages the nonadditive fuzzy integral to assess the importance weight of selection criteria and indicate the most suitable 3PL supplier.

Keywords: 3PL, non-additive fuzzy integral approach, SEM, fuzzy

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

Abstract:

In this paper, an advanced Nonlinear Exponential Model (NEM), able to simulate the uniaxial dynamic behavior of seismic isolators having a continuously decreasing tangent stiffness with increasing displacement in the relatively large displacements range and a hardening or softening behavior at large displacements, is presented. The mathematical model is validated by comparing the experimental force-displacement hysteresis loops obtained during cyclic tests, conducted on a helical wire rope isolator and a recycled rubber-fiber reinforced bearing, with those predicted analytically. Good agreement between the experimental and simulated results shows that the proposed model can be an effective numerical tool to predict the force-displacement relationship of seismic isolation devices within the large displacements range. Compared to the widely used Bouc-Wen model, unable to simulate the response of seismic isolators at large displacements, the proposed one allows to avoid the numerical solution of a first order nonlinear ordinary differential equation for each time step of a nonlinear time history analysis, thus reducing the computation effort. Furthermore, the proposed model can simulate the smooth transition of the hysteresis loops from small to large displacements by adopting only one set of five parameters determined from the experimental hysteresis loops having the largest amplitude.

Keywords: base isolation, hardening behavior, nonlinear exponential model, seismic isolators, softening behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: M. Aghili, S. Tabarestani, C. Freytes, M. Shojaie, M. Cabrerizo, A. Barreto, N. Rishe, R. E. Curiel, D. Loewenstein, R. Duara, M. Adjouadi

Abstract:

A major challenge in medical studies, especially those that are longitudinal, is the problem of missing measurements which hinders the effective application of many machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, recent Alzheimer's Disease studies have focused on the delineation of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment (EMCI) and Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI) from cognitively normal controls (CN) which is essential for developing effective and early treatment methods. To address the aforementioned challenges, this paper explores the potential of using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm in handling missing values in multiclass classification. We seek a generalized classification scheme where all prodromal stages of the disease are considered simultaneously in the classification and decision-making processes. Given the large number of subjects (1631) included in this study and in the presence of almost 28% missing values, we investigated the performance of XGBoost on the classification of the four classes of AD, NC, EMCI, and LMCI. Using 10-fold cross validation technique, XGBoost is shown to outperform other state-of-the-art classification algorithms by 3% in terms of accuracy and F-score. Our model achieved an accuracy of 80.52%, a precision of 80.62% and recall of 80.51%, supporting the more natural and promising multiclass classification.

Keywords: eXtreme gradient boosting, missing data, Alzheimer disease, early mild cognitive impairment, late mild cognitive impair, multiclass classification, ADNI, support vector machine, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: S. Arabnejad, D. W. C. Cheong, H. Chaobin, V. P. W. Shim

Abstract:

Debonding is the one of the fundamental damage mechanisms in particle field composites. This phenomenon gains more importance in nano composites because of the extensive interfacial region present in these materials. Understanding the debonding mechanism accurately, can help in understanding and predicting the response of nano composites as the interface deteriorates. The small length scale of the phenomenon makes the experimental characterization complicated and the results of it, far from real physical behavior. In this study the damage process in nylon-6/silica interface is examined through Molecular Dynamics (MD) modeling and simulations. The silica has been modeled with three forms of surfaces – without any surface treatment, with the surface treatment of 3-aminopropyltriethoxysilane (APTES) and with Hexamethyldisilazane (HMDZ) surface treatment. The APTES surface modification used to create functional groups on the silica surface, reacts and form covalent bonds with nylon 6 chains while the HMDZ surface treatment only interacts with both particle and polymer by non-bond interaction. The MD model in this study uses a PCFF force field. The atomic model is generated in a periodic box with a layer of vacuum on top of the polymer layer. This layer of vacuum is large enough that assures us from not having any interaction between particle and substrate after debonding. Results show that each of these three models show a different traction separation behavior. However, all of them show an almost bilinear traction separation behavior. The study also reveals a strong correlation between the length of APTES surface treatment and the cohesive strength of the interface.

Keywords: debonding, surface treatment, cohesive response, separation behaviour

Procedia PDF Downloads 445