Search results for: sir model

Authors: Sachin Jain, Daniel Perez-Astudillo, Dunia A. Bachour, Antonio P. Sanfilippo

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The future of solar energy in Qatar is evolving steadily. Hence, high-quality spatial solar radiation data is of the uttermost requirement for any planning and commissioning of solar technology. Generally, two types of solar radiation data are available: satellite data and ground observations. Satellite solar radiation data is developed by the physical and statistical model. Ground data is collected by solar radiation measurement stations. The ground data is of high quality. However, they are limited to distributed point locations with the high cost of installation and maintenance for the ground stations. On the other hand, satellite solar radiation data is continuous and available throughout geographical locations, but they are relatively less accurate than ground data. To utilize the advantage of both data, a product has been developed here which provides spatial continuity and higher accuracy than any of the data alone. The popular satellite databases: National Solar radiation Data Base, NSRDB (PSM V3 model, spatial resolution: 4 km) is chosen here for merging with ground-measured solar radiation measurement in Qatar. The spatial distribution of ground solar radiation measurement stations is comprehensive in Qatar, with a network of 13 ground stations. The monthly average of the daily total Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) component from ground and satellite data is used for error analysis. The normalized root means square error (NRMSE) values of 3.31%, 6.53%, and 6.63% for October, November, and December 2019 were observed respectively when comparing in-situ and NSRDB data. The method is based on the Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression Prediction model available in ArcGIS, ESRI. The workflow of the algorithm is based on the combination of regression and kriging methods. A regression model (OLS, ordinary least square) is fitted between the ground and NSBRD data points. A semi-variogram is fitted into the experimental semi-variogram obtained from the residuals. The kriging residuals obtained after fitting the semi-variogram model were added to NSRBD data predicted values obtained from the regression model to obtain the final predicted values. The NRMSE values obtained after merging are respectively 1.84%, 1.28%, and 1.81% for October, November, and December 2019. One more explanatory variable, that is the ground elevation, has been incorporated in the regression and kriging methods to reduce the error and to provide higher spatial resolution (30 m). The final GHI maps have been created after merging, and NRMSE values of 1.24%, 1.28%, and 1.28% have been observed for October, November, and December 2019, respectively. The proposed merging method has proven as a highly accurate method. An additional method is also proposed here to generate calibrated maps by using regression and kriging model and further to use the calibrated model to generate solar radiation maps from the explanatory variable only when not enough historical ground data is available for long-term analysis. The NRMSE values obtained after the comparison of the calibrated maps with ground data are 5.60% and 5.31% for November and December 2019 month respectively.

Keywords: global horizontal irradiation, GIS, empirical bayesian kriging regression prediction, NSRDB

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Authors: Ronal Muresano, Andrea Pagano

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Nowadays, the mathematical/statistical applications are developed with more complexity and accuracy. However, these precisions and complexities have brought as result that applications need more computational power in order to be executed faster. In this sense, the multicore environments are playing an important role to improve and to optimize the execution time of these applications. These environments allow us the inclusion of more parallelism inside the node. However, to take advantage of this parallelism is not an easy task, because we have to deal with some problems such as: cores communications, data locality, memory sizes (cache and RAM), synchronizations, data dependencies on the model, etc. These issues are becoming more important when we wish to improve the application’s performance and scalability. Hence, this paper describes an optimization method developed for Systemic Model of Banking Originated Losses (SYMBOL) tool developed by the European Commission, which is based on analyzing the application's weakness in order to exploit the advantages of the multicore. All these improvements are done in an automatic and transparent manner with the aim of improving the performance metrics of our tool. Finally, experimental evaluations show the effectiveness of our new optimized version, in which we have achieved a considerable improvement on the execution time. The time has been reduced around 96% for the best case tested, between the original serial version and the automatic parallel version.

Keywords: algorithm optimization, bank failures, OpenMP, parallel techniques, statistical tool

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Authors: Gleb Fomin, Kairat Tabynov, Nurkeldy Turebekov, Dinara Turegeldiyeva, Rinat Islamov

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The level of major cytokines in the blood of patients with COVID-19 varies greatly depending on age, gender, duration and severity of infection, and comorbidity. There are two clinically significant cytokines, IL-6 and TNF-α, which increase in levels in patients with severe COVID-19. However, in a model of COVID-19 in hamsters, TNF-α levels are unchanged or reduced, while the expression of other cytokines reflects the profile of cytokines found in patients’ plasma. The aim of our study was to evaluate the relationship between the level of cytokines in the blood, lungs, and lung damage in the model of the Syrian hamster (Mesocricetus auratus) infected with the SARS-CoV-2 strain. The study used outbred female and male Syrian hamsters (n=36, 4 groups) weighing 80-110 g and 5 months old (protocol IACUC, #4, 09/22/2020). Animals were infected intranasally with the hCoV-19/Kazakhstan/KazNAU-NSCEDI-481/2020 strain and euthanized at 3 d.p.i. The level of cytokines IL-6, TNF-α, IFN-α, and IFN-γ was determined by ELISA MyBioSourse (USA) for hamsters. Lung samples were subjected to histological processing. The presence of pathological changes in histological preparations was assessed on a 3-point scale. The work was carried out in the ABSL-3 laboratory. The data were analyzed in GraphPad Prism 6.00 (GraphPad Software, La Jolla, California, USA). The work was supported by the MES RK grant (AP09259865). In the blood, the level of TNF-α increased in males (p=0.0012) and IFN-γ in males and females (p=0.0001). On the contrary, IFN-α production decreased (p=0.0006). Only TNF-α level increased in lung tissues (p=0.0011). Correlation analysis showed a negative relationship between the level of IL-6 in the blood and lung damage in males (r -0.71, p=0.0001) and females (r-0.57, p=0.025). On the contrary, in males, the level of IL-6 in the lungs and score is positively correlated (r 0.80, p=0.01). The level of IFN-γ in the blood (r -0.64, p=0.035) and lungs (r-0.72, p=0.017) in males has a negative correlation with lung damage. No links were found for TNF-α and IFN-α. The study showed a positive association between lung injury and tissue levels of IL-6 in male hamsters. It is known that in humans, high concentrations of IL-6 in the lungs are associated with suppression of cellular immunity and, as a result, with an increase in the severity of COVID-19. TNF-α and IFN-γ play a key role in the pathogenesis of COVID-19 in hamsters. However, the mechanisms of their activity require more detailed study. IFN-α plays a lesser role in direct lung injury in a Syrian hamster model. We have shown the significance of tissue IL-6 and IFN-γ as predictors of the severity of lung damage in COVID-19 in the Syrian hamster model. Changes in the level of cytokines in the blood may not always reflect pathological processes in the lungs with COVID-19.

Keywords: syrian hamster, COVID-19, cytokines, biological model

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Authors: Ayodele James Akinola

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This study investigated the use of English in doctor-patient interaction in a university teaching hospital from a southwestern state in Nigeria with the aim of identifying the role of communication in an L2, patterns of communication, discourse strategies, pragmatic acts, and contexts that shape the interaction. Jacob Mey’s Pragmatic Acts notion complemented with Emanuel and Emanuel’s model of doctor-patient relationship provided the theoretical standpoint. Data comprising 7 audio-recorded doctors-patient interactions were collected from a University Hospital in Oyo state, Nigeria. Interactions involving the use of English language were purposefully selected. These were supplemented with patients’ case notes and interviews conducted with doctors. Transcription was patterned alongside modified Arminen’s notations of conversation analysis. In the study, interaction in English between doctor and patients has the preponderance of direct-translation, code-mixing and switching, Nigerianism and use of cultural worldviews to express medical experience. Irrespective of these, three patterns communication, namely the paternalistic, interpretive, and deliberative were identified. These were exhibited through varying discourse strategies. The paternalistic model reflected slightly casual conversational conventions and registers. These were achieved through the pragmemic activities of situated speech acts, psychological and physical acts, via patients’ quarrel-induced acts, controlled and managed through doctors’ shared situation knowledge. All these produced empathising, pacifying, promising and instructing practs. The patients’ practs were explaining, provoking, associating and greeting in the paternalistic model. The informative model reveals the use of adjacency pairs, formal turn-taking, precise detailing, institutional talks and dialogic strategies. Through the activities of the speech, prosody and physical acts, the practs of declaring, alerting and informing were utilised by doctors, while the patients exploited adapting, requesting and selecting practs. The negotiating conversational strategy of the deliberative model featured in the speech, prosody and physical acts. In this model, practs of suggesting, teaching, persuading and convincing were utilised by the doctors. The patients deployed the practs of questioning, demanding, considering and deciding. The contextual variables revealed that other patterns (such as phatic and informative) are also used and they coalesced in the hospital within the situational and psychological contexts. However, the paternalistic model was predominantly employed by doctors with over six years in practice, while the interpretive, informative and deliberative models were found among registrar and others below six years of medical practice. Doctors’ experience, patients’ peculiarities and shared cultural knowledge influenced doctor-patient communication in the study.

Keywords: pragmatics, communication pattern, doctor-patient interaction, Nigerian hospital situation

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Authors: Majid Khalili, Hamed Tayebi

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This paper considers a stochastic flexible job-shop scheduling (SFJSS) problem in the presence of production disruptions, and reactive scheduling is implemented in order to find the optimal solution under uncertainty. In this problem, there are two main disruptions including machine failure which influences operation time, and modification or cancellation of the order delivery date during production. In order to decrease the negative effects of these difficulties, two derived strategies from reactive scheduling are used; the first one is relevant to being able to allocate multiple machine to each job, and the other one is related to being able to select the best alternative process from other job while some disruptions would be created in the processes of a job. For this purpose, a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model is proposed.

Keywords: flexible job-shop scheduling, reactive scheduling, stochastic environment, mixed integer linear programming

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Authors: Michael Naderhirn, Marco Pavone

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Problem statement, motivation, and aim of work: So far, the development of control algorithms was done by control engineers in a way that the controller would fit a specification by testing. When it comes to the certification of an autonomous car in highly complex scenarios, the challenge is much higher since such a controller must mathematically guarantee to implement the rules of the road while on the other side guarantee aspects like safety and real time executability. What if it becomes reality to solve this demanding problem by combining Formal Verification and System Theory? The aim of this work is to present a workflow to solve the above mentioned problem. Summary of the presented results / main outcomes: We show the usage of an English like language to transform the rules of the road into system specification for an autonomous car. The language based specifications are used to define system functions and interfaces. Based on that a formal model is developed which formally correctly models the specifications. On the other side, a mathematical model describing the systems dynamics is used to calculate the systems reachability set which is further used to determine the system input boundaries. Then a motion planning algorithm is applied inside the system boundaries to find an optimized trajectory in combination with the formal specification model while satisfying the specifications. The result is a control strategy which can be applied in real time independent of the scenario with a mathematical guarantee to satisfy a predefined specification. We demonstrate the applicability of the method in simulation driving scenarios and a potential certification. Originality, significance, and benefit: To the authors’ best knowledge, it is the first time that it is possible to show an automated workflow which combines a specification in an English like language and a mathematical model in a mathematical formal verified way to synthesizes a controller for potential real time applications like autonomous driving.

Keywords: formal system verification, reachability, real time controller, hybrid system

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Authors: Ayalkibet Mekonnen, Adane Abebe

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In hydrological cycle there are many water-related human interventions that modify the natural systems. Rainwater harvesting is one such intervention that involves harnessing of water in the upstream. Water harvesting used in upstream prevents water runoff on downstream mainly disturbance on biodiversity and ecosystems. The main objectives of the study are to assess the effects of water harvesting technologies on downstream water availability in the Woreda. To address the above problem, SWAT model, cost-benefit ratio and optimal control approach was used to analyse the hydrological and socioeconomic impact and tradeoffs on water availability of the community, respectively. The downstream impacts of increasing water consumption in the upstream rain-fed areas of the Bilate and Shala Catchment are simulated using the semi-distributed SWAT model. The two land use scenarios tested at sub basin levels (1) conventional land use represents the current land use practice (Agri-CON) and (2) in-field rainwater harvesting (IRWH), improving soil water availability through rainwater harvesting land use scenario. The simulated water balance results showed that the highest peak mean monthly direct flow obtained from Agri-CON land use (127.1 m3/ha), followed by Agri-IRWH land use (11.5 mm) and LULC 2005 (90.1 m3/ha). The Agri-IRWH scenario reduced direct flow by 10% compared to Agri-CON and more groundwater flow contributed by Agri-IRWH (190 m3/ha) than Agri-CON (125 m3/ha). The overall result suggests that the water yield of the Woreda may not be negatively affected by the Agri-IRWH land use scenario. The technology in the Woreda benefited positively having an average benefit cost ratio of 4.2. Water harvesting for domestic use was not optimal that the value of the water per demand harvested was less than the amount of water needed. Storage tanks, series of check dams, gravel filled dams are an alternative solutions for water harvesting.

Keywords: water harvesting, SWAT model, land use scenario, Agri-CON, Agri-IRWH, trade off, benefit cost ratio

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Authors: I. Sagaama, A. Kechiche, W. Trojet, F. Kamoun

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Replacing combustion engine vehicles by electric vehicles (EVs) is a major step in recent years due to their potential benefits. Battery autonomy and charging processes are still a big issue for that kind of vehicles. Therefore, reducing the energy consumption of electric vehicles becomes a necessity. Many researches target introducing recent information and communication technologies in EVs in order to propose reducing energy consumption services. Evaluation of realistic scenarios is a big challenge nowadays. In this paper, we will elaborate a state of the art of different proposed energy consumption models in the literature, then we will present a comparative study of these models, finally, we will extend previous works in order to propose an accurate and realistic energy model for calculating instantaneous power consumption of electric vehicles.

Keywords: electric vehicle, vehicular networks, energy models, traffic simulation

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Authors: Jin Song Gui, Han Li, Rui Jin Zhang, Heng Jiang Cai

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There is a large deviation between the measured wave power at the vertical breast wall and the calculated one according to current specification in the case of overtopping. In order to investigate the reasons for the deviation, the wave forces of vertical breast wall under overtopping conditions have been measured through physical model experiment and compared with the calculated results. The effect of water depth, period and the wave height on the wave forces of the vertical breast wall have been also investigated. The distribution of wave pressure under different wave actions was tested based on the force sensor which is installed in the vertical breakwater. By comparing and analyzing the measured values and norms calculated values, the applicability of the existing norms recommended method were discussed and a reference for the design of vertical breakwater was provided. Experiment results show that with the decrease of the water depth, the gap is growing between the actual wave forces and the specification values, and there are no obvious regulations between these two values with the variation of period while wave force greatly reduces with the overtopping reducing. The amount of water depth and wave overtopping has a significant impact on the wave force of overtopping section while the period has no obvious influence on the wave force. Finally, some favorable recommendations for the overtopping wave force design of the vertical breakwater according to the model experiment results are provided.

Keywords: overtopping wave, physical model experiment, vertical breakwater, wave forces

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Authors: Fernando C. Labouriau, Ricardo M. Naveiro

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This paper presents a model for mapping the evolutive pattern of products in order to generate new ideas, to perceive emerging technologies and to manage product’s portfolios in new product development (NPD). According to the proposed model, the information extracted from the patent system is filtered and analyzed with TRIZ tools to produce the input information to the NPD process. The authors acknowledge that the NPD process is well integrated within the enterprises business strategic planning and that new products are vital in the competitive market nowadays. In the other hand, it has been observed the proactive use of patent information in some methodologies for selecting projects, mapping technological change and generating product concepts. And one of these methodologies is TRIZ, a theory created to favor innovation and to improve product design that provided the analytical framework for the model. Initially, it is presented an introduction to TRIZ mainly focused on the patterns of evolution of technical systems and its strategic uses, a brief and absolutely non-comprehensive description as the theory has several others tools being widely employed in technical and business applications. Then, it is introduced the model for mapping the products evolutive pattern with its three basic pillars, namely patent information, TRIZ and NPD, and the methodology for implementation. Following, a case study of a Brazilian bike manufacturing is presented to proceed the mapping of a product evolutive pattern by decomposing and analyzing one of its assemblies along ten evolution lines in order to envision opportunities for further product development. Some of these lines are illustrated in more details to evaluate the features of the product in relation to the TRIZ concepts using a comparison perspective with patents in the state of the art to validate the product’s evolutionary potential. As a result, the case study provided several opportunities for a product improvement development program in different project categories, identifying technical and business impacts as well as indicating the lines of evolution that can mostly benefit from each opportunity.

Keywords: product development, patents, product strategy, systems evolution

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Authors: M. Ouassaf, S. Belaid

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A series of quinoline derivatives with antimalarial activity were subjected to two-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship (2D-QSAR) studies. Three models were implemented using multiple regression linear MLR, a regression partial least squares (PLS), nonlinear regression (MNLR), to see which descriptors are closely related to the activity biologic. We relied on a principal component analysis (PCA). Based on our results, a comparison of the quality of, MLR, PLS, and MNLR models shows that the MNLR (R = 0.914 and R² = 0.835, RCV= 0.853) models have substantially better predictive capability because the MNLR approach gives better results than MLR (R = 0.835 and R² = 0,752, RCV=0.601)), PLS (R = 0.742 and R² = 0.552, RCV=0.550) The model of MNLR gave statistically significant results and showed good stability to data variation in leave-one-out cross-validation. The obtained results suggested that our proposed model MNLR may be useful to predict the biological activity of derivatives of quinoline.

Keywords: antimalarial, quinoline, QSAR, PCA, MLR , MNLR, MLR

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Authors: Louis N. Y. Wong

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En-echelon fractures are commonly found in rocks, which appear as a special set of regularly oriented and spaced fractures. By using both experimental and numerical approaches, this study investigates the interaction among them, and how this interaction finally contributes to the development of a shear rupture (fault), especially in brittle natural rocks. Firstly, uniaxial compression tests are conducted on marble specimens containing en-echelon flaws. The latter is cut by using the water abrasive jet into the rock specimens. The fracturing processes of these specimens leading to the formation of a fault are observed in detail by the use of a high speed camera. The influences of the flaw geometry on the production of tensile cracks and shear cracks, which in turn dictate the coalescence patterns of the entire set of en-echelon flaws are comprehensively studied. Secondly, a numerical study based on a recently developed contact model, flat-joint contact model using the discrete element method (DEM) is carried out to model the present laboratory experiments. The numerical results provide a quantitative assessment of the interaction of en-echelon flaws. Particularly, the evolution of the stress field, as well as the characteristics of new crack initiation, propagation and coalescence associated with the generation of an eventual shear rupture are studied in detail. The numerical results are found to agree well with the experimental results obtained in both microscopic and macroscopic observations.

Keywords: discrete element method, en-echelon flaws, fault, marble

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Authors: J. Marx, D. Smazna, R. Adelung, B. Fiedler

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Aerographite is a 3D interconnected carbon foam. Its tetrapodal morphology is based on the zinc oxide (ZnO) template structure, which is replicated in the chemical vapour deposition (CVD) into a hollow carbon structure. This replication process is analyzed in ex-situ studies via interrupted synthesis and the observation of the reaction progress by using scanning electron (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and Raman spectroscopy techniques. Based on the epitaxial growth process, with a layer-by-layer growth behaviour of the wall thickness or number of layers and the catalytical graphitization of the deposited amorphous carbon into graphitic carbon by zinc, a growth model is created. The properties of aerographite, such as the electrical conductivity is dependent on the graphitization and number of layer (wall thickness). Wall thicknesses between 3 nm and 22 nm are achieved by a controlled stepwise reduction of the synthesis time on the basis of the developed growth model, and by a further thermal treatment at 1800 °C the graphitization of the presented carbon foam is modified. The variation of the wall thickness leads to an optimum defect density (ID/IG ratio) and the graphitization to an improvement in the electrical conductivity. Furthermore, a metallic conducting behaviour of untreated and 1800 °C treated aerographite can be observed. Due to these structural and defective modifications, a fundamental structural-property equation for the description of their influences on the electrical conductivity is developed.

Keywords: electrical conductivity, electron microscopy (SEM/TEM), graphitization, wall thickness

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Authors: Florin Leon

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This paper describes a simulator of traffic scenarios tailored to facilitate autonomous driving model training for urban environments. With the rising prominence of self-driving vehicles, the need for diverse datasets is very important. The proposed simulator provides a flexible framework that allows the generation of custom scenarios needed for the validation and enhancement of trajectory prediction algorithms. Its controlled yet dynamic environment addresses the challenges associated with real-world data acquisition and ensures adaptability to diverse driving scenarios. By providing an adaptable solution for scenario creation and algorithm testing, this tool proves to be a valuable resource for advancing autonomous driving technology that aims to ensure safe and efficient self-driving vehicles.

Keywords: autonomous driving, car simulator, machine learning, model training, urban simulation environment

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Authors: M. Ghasemi, F. Eskandari, B. Hamzehei, A. R. Arshi

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Bioelectric activity of nervous cells might be changed causing by various factors. This alteration can lead to unforeseen circumstances in other organs of the body. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to model a single neuron and its behavior under an initial stimulation. This study was developed based on cable theory by means of the Bond Graph method. The numerical values of the parameters were derived from empirical studies of cellular electrophysiology experiments. Initial excitation was applied through square current functions, and the resulted action potential was estimated along the neuron. The results revealed that the model was developed in this research adapted with the results of experimental studies and demonstrated the electrical behavior of nervous cells properly.

Keywords: bond graph, stimulation, nervous cells, modeling

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Authors: Tohid Eskandarzadeh, Nader Bahlouli, Turaj Behnam, Azra Jafarzadeh

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The purpose of the study reported in this paper was to propose an optimal pattern to evaluate the staff management performance of the water and sewage organization. The performance prism-model was used to evaluate the following significant dimensions of performance: organizational strategies, organizational processes, organization capabilities, stakeholders’ partnership and satisfaction. In the present study, a standard, valid and reliable questionnaire was used to obtain data about the five dimensions of the performance prism model. 169 sample respondents were used for responding the questionnaire who were selected from the staff of water and waste-water organization in western Azerbaijan, Iran. Also, Alpha coefficient was used to check the reliability of the data-collection instrument which was measured to be beyond 0.7. The obtained data were statistically analyzed by means of SPSS version 18. The results obtained from the data analysis indicated that the performance of the staff management of the water and waste-water organization in western Azerbaijan was acceptable in terms of organizational strategies, organizational process, stakeholders’ partnership and satisfaction. Nevertheless, it was found that the performance of the staff management with respect to organizational abilities was average. Indeed, the researchers drew the conclusion that the current performance of the staff management in this organization in western Azerbaijan was less than ideal performance.

Keywords: performance evaluation, performance prism model, water, waste-water organization

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Authors: Shinji Kajiwara

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The spring-driven ball-type check valve is one of the most important components of hydraulic systems: it controls the position of the ball and prevents backward flow. To simplify the structure, the spring must be eliminated, and to accomplish this, the flow pattern and the behavior of the check ball in L-shaped pipe must be determined. In this paper, we present a full-scale model of a check ball made of acrylic resin, and we determine the relationship between the initial position of the ball, the position and diameter of the inflow port. The check flow rate increases in a standard center inflow model, and it is possible to greatly decrease the check-flow rate by shifting the inflow from the center.

Keywords: hydraulics, pipe flow, numerical simulation, flow visualization, check ball, L-shaped pipe

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Authors: Chaiyaporn Yuksen

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Backgroud: Supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) is an abnormally fast atrial tachycardia characterized by narrow (≤ 120 ms) and constant QRS. Adenosine was the drug of choice; the first dose was 6 mg. It can be repeated with the second and third doses of 12 mg, with greater than 90% success. The study found that patients observed at 4 hours after normal sinus rhythm was no recurrence within 24 hours. The objective of this study was to investigate the factors that influence the recurrence of SVT after adenosine in the emergency department (ED). Method: The study was conducted retrospectively exploratory model, prognostic study at the Emergency Department (ED) in Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, a university-affiliated super tertiary care hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. The study was conducted for ten years period between 2010 and 2020. The inclusion criteria were age > 15 years, visiting the ED with SVT, and treating with adenosine. Those patients were recorded with the recurrence SVT in ED. The multivariable logistic regression model developed the predictive model and prediction score for recurrence PSVT. Result: 264 patients met the study criteria. Of those, 24 patients (10%) had recurrence PSVT. Five independent factors were predictive of recurrence PSVT. There was age>65 years, heart rate (after adenosine) > 100 per min, structural heart disease, and dose of adenosine. The clinical risk score to predict recurrence PSVT is developed accuracy 74.41%. The score of >6 had the likelihood ratio of recurrence PSVT by 5.71 times Conclusion: The clinical predictive score of > 6 was associated with recurrence PSVT in ED.

Keywords: clinical prediction score, SVT, recurrence, emergency department

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Authors: Salif Koné

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We analyze hydrometric data at the Koulikoro station on the Niger River; this basin drains 120600 km2 and covers three countries in West Africa, Guinea, Mali, and Ivory Coast. Two subsequent decadal cycles are highlighted (1925-1936 and 1929-1939) instead of the presumed single decadal one from literature. Moreover, the observed hydrometric data shows a multidecadal 40-year period that is confirmed when graphing a spatial coefficient of variation of runoff over decades (starting at 1901-1910). Spatial runoff data are produced on 48 grids (0.5 degree by 0.5 degree) and through semi-distributed versions of both SimulHyd model and GR2M model - variants of a French Hydrologic model – standing for Genie Rural of 2 parameters at monthly time step. Both extremal decades in terms of runoff coefficient of variation are confronted: 1951-1960 has minimal coefficient of variation, and 1981-1990 shows the maximal value of it during the three months of high-water level (August, September, and October). The mapping of the relative variation of these two decadal situations allows hypothesizing as following: the scale of variation between both extremal situations could serve to fix boundary conditions for further simulations using data from climate scenario.

Keywords: internal cycles, hydrometric data, niger river, gr2m and simulhyd framework, runoff coefficient of variation

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Authors: Stephanie Watson, Fabrice Stephenson, Conrad Pilditch, Carolyn Lundquist

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Spatial data detailing both the distribution and density of functionally important marine species are needed to inform management decisions. Species distribution models (SDMs) have proven helpful in this regard; however, models often focus only on species occurrences derived from spatially expansive datasets and lack the resolution and detail required to inform regional management decisions. Boosted regression trees (BRT) were used to produce high-resolution SDMs (250 m) at two spatial scales predicting probability of occurrence, abundance (count per sample unit), density (count per km2) and uncertainty for seven coastal seafloor taxa that vary in habitat usage and distribution to examine prediction differences and implications for coastal management. We investigated if small scale regionally focussed models (82,000 km2) can provide improved predictions compared to data-rich national scale models (4.2 million km2). We explored the variability in predictions across model type (occurrence vs abundance) and model scale to determine if specific taxa models or model types are more robust to geographical variability. National scale occurrence models correlated well with broad-scale environmental predictors, resulting in higher AUC (Area under the receiver operating curve) and deviance explained scores; however, they tended to overpredict in the coastal environment and lacked spatially differentiated detail for some taxa. Regional models had lower overall performance, but for some taxa, spatial predictions were more differentiated at a localised ecological scale. National density models were often spatially refined and highlighted areas of ecological relevance producing more useful outputs than regional-scale models. The utility of a two-scale approach aids the selection of the most optimal combination of models to create a spatially informative density model, as results contrasted for specific taxa between model type and scale. However, it is vital that robust predictions of occurrence and abundance are generated as inputs for the combined density model as areas that do not spatially align between models can be discarded. This study demonstrates the variability in SDM outputs created over different geographical scales and highlights implications and opportunities for managers utilising these tools for regional conservation, particularly in data-limited environments.

Keywords: Benthic ecology, spatial modelling, multi-scalar modelling, marine conservation.

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Authors: Hai Chien Pham, Thi Phuong Anh Vo, Chansik Park

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Risks management in construction projects is important to ensure the positive feasibility of the projects in which financial risks are most concerned while construction projects always run on a credit basis. Credit risks, therefore, require unique and technical tools to be well managed. Underwriting technique in credit risks, in its most basic sense, refers to the process of evaluating the risks and the potential exposure of losses. Risks analysis and underwriting are applied as a must in banks and financial institutions who are supporters for constructions projects when required. Recently, construction organizations, especially contractors, have recognized the significant increasing of credit risks which caused negative impacts to project performance and profit of construction firms. Despite the successful application of underwriting in banks and financial institutions for many years, there are few contractors who are applying this technique to analyze and mitigate the credit risks of their potential owners before signing contracts with them for delivering their performed services. Thus, contractors have taken credit risks during project implementation which might be not materialized due to the bankruptcy and/or protracted default made by their owners. With this regard, this study proposes a model using the underwriting technique for contractors to analyze and assess credit risks of their owners before making final decisions for the potential construction contracts. Contractor’s underwriters are able to analyze and evaluate the subjects such as owner, country, sector, payment terms, financial figures and their related concerns of the credit limit requests in details based on reliable information sources, and then input into the proposed model to have the Overall Assessment Score (OAS). The OAS is as a benchmark for the decision makers to grant the proper limits for the project. The proposed underwriting model is validated by 30 subjects in Asia Pacific region within 5 years to achieve their OAS, and then compare output OAS with their own practical performance in order to evaluate the potential of underwriting model for analyzing and assessing credit risks. The results revealed that the underwriting would be a powerful method to assist contractors in making precise decisions. The contribution of this research is to allow the contractors firstly to develop their own credit risk management model for proactively preventing the credit risks of construction projects and continuously improve and enhance the performance of this function during project implementation.

Keywords: underwriting technique, credit risk, risk management, construction project

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Authors: Rujia Chen, Akbar Ghobakhlou, Ajit Narayanan

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This study investigates the task of identifying musical instruments in polyphonic compositions using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) from spectrogram inputs, focusing on binary classification. The model showed promising results, with an accuracy of 97% on solo instrument recognition. When applied to polyphonic combinations of 1 to 10 instruments, the overall accuracy was 64%, reflecting the increasing challenge with larger ensembles. These findings contribute to the field of Music Information Retrieval (MIR) by highlighting the potential and limitations of current approaches in handling complex musical arrangements. Future work aims to include a broader range of musical sounds, including electronic and synthetic sounds, to improve the model's robustness and applicability in real-time MIR systems.

Keywords: binary classifier, CNN, spectrogram, instrument

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Authors: Sandeep Mohan Ahuja, Gulshan Kumar Jawa

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Cyclone separators are crucial components in various industries tasked with efficiently separating particulate matter from gas streams. Achieving optimal performance hinges on a deep understanding of flow dynamics and particle behaviour within these separators. In this investigation, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations are conducted utilizing the Discrete Phase Model (DPM) to dissect the intricate flow patterns, particle trajectories, and separation efficiency within cyclone separators. The study delves into the influence of pivotal parameters like inlet velocity, particle size distribution, and cyclone geometry on separation efficiency. Through numerical simulations, a comprehensive comprehension of fluid-particle interaction phenomena within cyclone separators is attained, allowing for the assessment of solid collection efficiency across diverse operational conditions and geometrical setups. The insights gleaned from this study promise to advance our understanding of the complex interplay between fluid and particle within cyclone separators, thereby enabling optimization across a wide array of industrial applications. By harnessing the power of CFD simulations and the DPM, this research endeavours to furnish valuable insights for designing, operating, and evaluating the performance of cyclone separators, ultimately fostering greater efficiency and environmental sustainability within industrial processes.

Keywords: cyclone separator, computational fluid dynamics, enhancing efficiency, discrete phase model

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Authors: Fatima Bellali, Mariem Kharroubi

Abstract:

Fish scale wastes are one of the main sources of production of value-added products such as collagen. The main aim of this study is to investigate the optimization conditions of the sardine scale deproteinization using response surface methodology (RSM) on a pilot scale. In order to look for the optimal conditions, a Box–Behnken-based design of experiment (DOE) method was carried out. The model predicted values of product coal ash content were in good agreement with the experiment values (R2 = 0.9813). Finally, model-based optimization was carried out to identify the operating parameters (reaction time=4h and the solid-liquid ratio= 1/10) and to obtain the lowest collagen content.

Keywords: pilot scale, Plackett and Burman design, fish waste, deproteinization

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Authors: Safwan Kanan, Jonathan Dewsbury, Gregory Lane-Serff

Abstract:

A salinity gradient solar pond is a free energy source system for collecting, converting and storing solar energy as heat. In this paper, the principles of solar pond are explained. A mathematical model is developed to describe and simulate heat and mass transfer behavior of salinity gradient solar pond. Matlab codes are programmed to solve the one dimensional finite difference method for heat and mass transfer equations. Temperature profiles and concentration distributions are calculated. The numerical results are validated with experimental data and the results are found to be in good agreement.

Keywords: finite difference method, salt-gradient solar-pond, solar energy, transient heat and mass transfer

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Authors: Rim Ben Kalifa, Sabra Habli, Nejla Mahjoub Saïd, Hervé Bournot, Georges Le Palec

Abstract:

The present study treats different phenomena taking place in a configuration of air jet impinging on a flat surface in a coflow stream. A Computational Fluid Dynamics study is performed using the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations by means of the Reynolds Stress Model (RSM) second order turbulent closure model. The results include mean and turbulent velocities and quantify the large effects of the coflow stream on an impinging air jet. The study of the jet in a no-directed coflow stream shows the presence of a phenomenon of recirculation near the flat plate. The influence of the coflow velocity ratio on the behavior of an impinging plane jet was also numerically investigated. The coflow stream imposed noticeable restrictions on the spreading of the impinging jet. The results show that the coflow stream decreases considerably the entrainment of air jet.

Keywords: turbulent jet, turbulence models, coflow stream, velocity ratio

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Authors: Bruno Vilić Belina, Jadranko Matuško

Abstract:

The rapid development of cyber-physical systems significantly influences modern control systems introducing a whole new range of applications of control systems but also putting them under new challenges to ensure their resiliency to possible cyber attacks, either in the form of data integrity attacks or deception attacks. This paper presents a model predictive approach to the control of cyber-physical systems robust to cyber attacks. We assume that a cyber attack can be modelled as an additive disturbance that acts in the measuring channel. For such a system, we designed a tube-based predictive controller based. The performance of the designed controller has been verified in Matlab/Simulink environment.

Keywords: control systems, cyber attacks, resiliency, robustness, tube based model predictive control

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Authors: June-Jei Kuo, Yi-Chuan Hsieh

Abstract:

Because of the rapid growth of information technology, more and more libraries introduce the new information retrieval systems to enhance the users’ experience, improve the retrieval efficiency, and increase the applicability of the library resources. Nevertheless, few of them are discussed the usability from the users’ aspect. The aims of this study are to understand that the scenario of the information retrieval system utilization, and to know why users are willing to continuously use the web-scale discovery system to improve the web-scale discovery system and promote their use of university libraries. Besides of questionnaires, observations and interviews, this study employs both Information System Success Model introduced by DeLone and McLean in 2003 and the flow theory to evaluate the system quality, information quality, service quality, use, user satisfaction, flow, and continuing to use web-scale discovery system of students from National Chung Hsing University. Then, the results are analyzed through descriptive statistics and structural equation modeling using AMOS. The results reveal that in web-scale discovery system, the user’s evaluation of system quality, information quality, and service quality is positively related to the use and satisfaction; however, the service quality only affects user satisfaction. User satisfaction and the flow show a significant impact on continuing to use. Moreover, user satisfaction has a significant impact on user flow. According to the results of this study, to maintain the stability of the information retrieval system, to improve the information content quality, and to enhance the relationship between subject librarians and students are recommended for the academic libraries. Meanwhile, to improve the system user interface, to minimize layer from system-level, to strengthen the data accuracy and relevance, to modify the sorting criteria of the data, and to support the auto-correct function are required for system provider. Finally, to establish better communication with librariana commended for all users.

Keywords: web-scale discovery system, discovery system, information system success model, flow theory, academic library

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Muhammad Ahsan

Abstract:

The effective decommissioning of oil and gas fields and related assets is one of the most important challenges facing the oil and gas industry today and in the future. Decommissioning decisions can no longer be avoided by the operators and the industry as a whole. Decommissioning yields no return on investment and carries significant regulatory liabilities. The main objective of this paper is to provide an approach and mechanism for the estimation of emissions associated with decommissioning of Oil and Gas fields. The model uses gate to gate approach and considers field life from development phase up to asset end life. The model incorporates decommissioning processes which includes; well plugging, plant dismantling, wellhead, and pipeline dismantling, cutting and temporary fabrication, new manufacturing from raw material and recycling of metals. The results of the GHG emissions during decommissioning phase are 2.31x10-2 Kg CO2 Eq. per Mcf of the produced natural gas. Well plug and abandonment evolved to be the most GHG emitting activity with 84.7% of total field decommissioning operational emissions.

Keywords: LCA (life cycle analysis), gas field, decommissioning, emissions

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: Nadia A. Mohamed, Zakaria El-Khayat, Wagdy K. B. Khalil, Mehrez E. El-Naggar

Abstract:

Drug nephrotoxicity is still a problem for patients who have taken drugs for elongated periods or permanently. Ultrasound-assisted sol−gel method was used to prepare hollow structured poroussilica nanoemulsion loaded with sodium salicylate as a model drug. The work was extended to achieve the target of the current work via investigating the protective role of this nanoemulsion model as anti-inflammatory drug or ginger for its antioxidant effect against cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity in male albino rats. The results clarify that the nanoemulsion model was synthesized using ultrasonic assisted with small size and well stabilization as proved by TEM and DLS analysis. Additionally, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), Serum creatinine (SC) and Urinary total protein (UTP) were increased, and the level of creatinine clearance (Crcl) was decreased. All those were met with disorders in oxidative stress and downregulation in the expression of the nephrin gene. Also, histopathological changes of the kidney tissue were observed. These changes back to normal by treatment with silica nanoparticles loaded sodium salicylate (Si-Sc-NPs), ginger or both. Conclusions oil/water nanoemulsion of (Si-Sc NPs) and ginger showed a protective and promising preventive strategy against nephrotoxicity due to their antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects, and that offers a new approach in attenuating drug induced nephrotoxicity.

Keywords: sodium salicylate nanoencapsulation, nephrin mRNA, drug nephrotoxicity, cisplatin, experimental rats

Procedia PDF Downloads 201