Search results for: consequence modeling

Authors: Mohammed Kadhim, Zhaohui Huang

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Steel connections can play an important role in enhancing the robustness of structures under fire conditions. Therefore, it is significant to examine the influence of steel connections on the fire resistance of composite steel-framed buildings. In this paper, both the behavior of steel connections and their influence on composite steel frame are analyzed using the non-linear finite element computer software VULCAN at ambient and elevated temperatures. The chosen frame is subjected to ISO834 fire. The comparison between end plate connections, pinned connection, and rigid connection has been carried out. By applying different compartment fires, some cases are studied to show the behavior of steel connection when the fire is applied at certain beams. In addition, different plate thickness and deferent applied loads have been analyzed to examine the behavior of chosen steel connection under ISO834 fire. It was found from the analytical results that the beam with extended end plate is stronger and has better performance in terms of axial forces than those beams with flush end plate connection. It was also found that extended end plate connection has highest limiting temperatures compared to the flush end plate connection. In addition, it was found that the performance of end-plate connections is very close to rigid connection and very far from pinned connections. Furthermore, plate thickness has less effect on the influence of steel connection on fire resistance. In conclusion, the behavior of composite steel framed buildings is largely dependent on the steel connection due to their high impact under fire condition. It is recommended to consider the extended end-plate in the design proposes because of its higher properties compared to the flush end plate connection. Finally, this paper shows a steel connection has an important effect on the fire resistance of composite steel framed buildings.

Keywords: composite steel-framed buildings, connection behavior, end-plate connections, finite element modeling, fire resistance

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Authors: Ana L. Martins, Luis Orfão

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Healthcare systems have been subject to various research efforts aiming at process improvement under a lean approach. Another perspective, agility, has also been used, though in a lower scale, in order to analyse the ability of different hospital services to adapt to demand uncertainties. Both perspectives have a common denominator, the improvement of effectiveness and efficiency of the services in a healthcare setting context. Mixing the two approached allows, on one hand, to streamline the processes, and on the other hand the required flexibility to deal with demand uncertainty in terms of both volume and variety. The present research aims to analyse the impacts of the combination of both perspectives in the effectiveness and efficiency of an hospital service. The adopted methodology is based on a case study approach applied to the process of the ambulatory surgery service of Hospital de Lamego. Data was collected from direct observations, formal interviews and informal conversations. The analyzed process was selected according to three criteria: relevance of the process to the hospital, presence of human resources, and presence of waste. The customer of the process was identified as well as his perception of value. The process was mapped using flow chart, on a process modeling perspective, as well as through the use of Value Stream Mapping (VSM) and Process Activity Mapping. The Spaghetti Diagram was also used to assess flow intensity. The use of the lean tools enabled the identification of three main types of waste: movement, resource inefficiencies and process inefficiencies. From the use of the lean tools improvement suggestions were produced. The results point out that leagility cannot be applied to the process, but the application of lean and agility in specific areas of the process would bring benefits in both efficiency and effectiveness, and contribute to value creation if improvements are introduced in hospital’s human resources and facilities management.

Keywords: case study, healthcare systems, leagility, lean management

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: Tuğçe Kiper Elibol, İbrahim Uslan, Mehmet Ali Guler, Murat Buyuk, Uğur Yolum

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According to the FAA report, 142603 bird strikes were reported for a period of 24 years, between 1990 – 2013. Bird strike with aerospace structures not only threaten the flight security but also cause financial loss and puts life in danger. The statistics show that most of the bird strikes are happening with the nose and the leading edge of the wings. Also, a substantial amount of bird strikes is absorbed by the jet engines and causes damage on blades and engine body. Crash proof designs are required to overcome the possibility of catastrophic failure of the airplane. Using computational methods for bird strike analysis during the product development phase has considerable importance in terms of cost saving. Clearly, using simulation techniques to reduce the number of reference tests can dramatically affect the total cost of an aircraft, where for bird strike often full-scale tests are considered. Therefore, development of validated numerical models is required that can replace preliminary tests and accelerate the design cycle. In this study, to verify the simulation parameters for a bird strike analysis, several different numerical options are studied for an impact case against a primitive structure. Then, a representative bird mode is generated with the verified parameters and collided against the leading edge of a training aircraft wing, where each structural member of the wing was explicitly modeled. A nonlinear explicit dynamics finite element code, LS-DYNA was used for the bird impact simulations. SPH methodology was used to model the behavior of the bird. Dynamic behavior of the wing superstructure was observed and will be used for further design optimization purposes.

Keywords: bird impact, bird strike, finite element modeling, smoothed particle hydrodynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Nadia Allouache, Mohamed Belmedani

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Energy source is a sustainable, totally inexhaustible and environmentally friendly alternative to the fossil fuels available. It is a renewable and economical energy that can be harnessed sustainably over the long term and thus stabilizes energy costs. Solar cooling technologies have been developed to decrease the augmentation electricity consumption for air conditioning and to displace the peak load during hot summer days. A numerical analysis of thermal and solar performances of an annular finned adsorber, which is the most important component of the adsorption solar refrigerating system, is considered in this work. Different adsorbent/adsorbate pairs, such as activated carbon AC35/methanol, activated carbon AC35/ethanol, and activated carbon BPL/Ammoniac, are undertaken in this study. The modeling of the adsorption cooling machine requires the resolution of the equation describing the energy and mass transfer in the tubular finned adsorber. The Wilson and Dubinin- Astakhov models of the solid-adsorbate equilibrium are used to calculate the adsorbed quantity. The porous medium and the fins are contained in the annular space, and the adsorber is heated by solar energy. Effects of key parameters on the adsorbed quantity and on the thermal and solar performances are analysed and discussed. The AC35/methanol pair is the best pair compared to BPL/Ammoniac and AC35/ethanol pairs in terms of system performance. The system performances are sensitive to the fin geometry. For the considered data measured for clear type days of July 2023 in Algeria and Morocco, the performances of the cooling system are very significant in Algeria.

Keywords: activated carbon AC35-methanol pair, activated carbon AC35-ethanol pair, activated carbon BPL-ammoniac pair, annular finned adsorber, performance coefficients, numerical analysis, solar cooling system

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Authors: Gurbanova Lamiya

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The Republic of Azerbaijan is considered a region with limited water resources, as up to 70% of surface water is formed outside the country's borders, and most of its territory is an arid (dry) climate zone. It is located at the lower limit of transboundary flows, which is the weakest source of natural water resources in the South Caucasus. It is essential to correctly assess the quality of natural, collector-drainage and groundwater of the area and their suitability for irrigation in order to properly carry out land reclamation measures, provide the normal water-salt regime, and prevent repeated salinization. Through the 141-km-long main Mil-Mugan collector, groundwater, household waste, and floodwaters generated during floods and landslides are poured into the Caspian Sea. The hydrochemical composition of the samples taken from the Sabir irrigation canal passing through the center of the Kura-Araz plain, the Main Mil-Mugan Collector, and the groundwater of the region, which we chose as our research object, were studied and the obtained results were compared by periods. A model is proposed that allows for a complete visualization of the primary materials collected for the study area. The practical use of the established digital model provides all possibilities. The practical use of the established digital model provides all possibilities. An extensive database was created with the ArcGis 10.8 package, using publicly available LandSat satellite images as primary data in addition to ground surveys to build the model. The principles of the construction of the geographic information system of modern GIS technology were developed, the boundary and initial condition of the research area were evaluated, and forecasts and recommendations were given.

Keywords: irrigation channel, groundwater, collector, meliorative measures

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Farideh Halakou, Emel Sen, Attila Gursoy, Ozlem Keskin

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Protein–Protein Interactions (PPIs) mediate major biological processes in living cells. The study of PPIs as networks and analyze the network properties contribute to the identification of genes and proteins associated with diseases. In this study, we have created the sub-networks of brain and lung metastasis from primary tumor in breast cancer. To do so, we used seed genes known to cause metastasis, and produced their interactions through a network-topology based prioritization method named GUILDify. In order to have the experimental support for the sub-networks, we further curated them using STRING database. We proceeded by modeling structures for the interactions lacking complex forms in Protein Data Bank (PDB). The functional enrichment analysis shows that KEGG pathways associated with the immune system and infectious diseases, particularly the chemokine signaling pathway, are important for lung metastasis. On the other hand, pathways related to genetic information processing are more involved in brain metastasis. The structural analyses of the sub-networks vividly demonstrated their difference in terms of using specific interfaces in lung and brain metastasis. Furthermore, the topological analysis identified genes such as RPL5, MMP2, CCR5 and DPP4, which are already known to be associated with lung or brain metastasis. Additionally, we found 6 and 9 putative genes that are specific for lung and brain metastasis, respectively. Our analysis suggests that variations in genes and pathways contributing to these different breast metastasis types may arise due to change in tissue microenvironment. To show the benefits of using structural PPI networks instead of traditional node and edge presentation, we inspect two case studies showing the mutual exclusiveness of interactions and effects of mutations on protein conformation which lead to different signaling.

Keywords: breast cancer, metastasis, PPI networks, protein conformational changes

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Authors: Puneet Kumar, Jonnalagadda Srinivas

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The authors report here vibration and buckling analysis of functionally graded carbon nanotube-polymer composite (FG-CNTPC) beams under hygro-thermo-mechanical environments using higher order shear deformation theory. The material properties of CNT and polymer matrix are often affected by temperature and moisture content. A micromechanical model with agglomeration effect is employed to compute the elastic, thermal and moisture properties of the composite beam. The governing differential equation of FG-CNTRPC beam is developed using higher-order shear deformation theory to account shear deformation effects. The elastic, thermal and hygroscopic strain terms are derived from variational principles. Moreover, thermal and hygroscopic loads are determined by considering uniform, linear and sinusoidal variation of temperature and moisture content through the thickness. Differential equations of motion are formulated as an eigenvalue problem using appropriate displacement fields and solved by using finite element modeling. The obtained results of natural frequencies and critical buckling loads show a good agreement with published data. The numerical illustrations elaborate the dynamic as well as buckling behavior under uniaxial load for different environmental conditions, boundary conditions and volume fraction distribution profile, beam slenderness ratio. Further, comparisons are shown at different boundary conditions, temperatures, degree of moisture content, volume fraction as well as agglomeration of CNTs, slenderness ratio of beam for different shear deformation theories.

Keywords: hygrothermal effect, free vibration, buckling load, agglomeration

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Authors: Fatemeh Daneshvartarigh

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New technologies and applications have radically altered construction techniques in recent years. In order to anticipate how the building will act, perform, and appear, these technologies encompass a wide range of visualization, simulation, and analytic tools. These new technologies and applications have a considerable impact on completing construction projects in today's (architecture, engineering and construction)AEC industries. The rate of changes in BIM-related topics is different worldwide, and it depends on many factors, e.g., the national policies of each country. Therefore, there is a need for comprehensive research focused on a specific area with common characteristics. Therefore, one of the necessary measures to increase the use of this new approach is to examine the challenges and obstacles facing it. In this research, based on the Delphi method, at first, the background and related literature are reviewed. Then, using the knowledge obtained from the literature, a primary questionnaire is generated and filled by experts who are selected using snowball sampling. It covered the experts' attitudes towards implementing BIM in renovation projects and their view of the benefits and obstacles in this regard. By analyzing the primary questionnaire, the second group of experts is selected among the participants to be interviewed. The results are analyzed using Theme analysis. Six themes, including Management support, staff resistance, client willingness, Cost of software and implementation, the difficulty of implementation, and other reasons, are obtained. Then a final questionnaire is generated from the themes and filled by the same group of experts. The result is analyzed by the Fuzzy Delphi method, showing the exact ranking of the obtained themes. The final results show that management support, staff resistance, and client willingness are the most critical barrier to BIM usage in renovation projects.

Keywords: building information modeling, BIM, BIM implementation, BIM barriers, BIM in renovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Hengki Eko Putra, Dennish Ari Putro, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Edi Riawan, Junnaedhi Dewa Gede, Aditia Rojali, Fariza Dian Prasetyo, Yudhistira Satya Pribadi, Dita Fatria Andarini, Mila Khaerunisa, Raditya Hanung Prakoswa

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Catastrophe risk management can only be done if we are able to calculate the exposed risks. Jakarta is an important city economically, socially, and politically and in the same time exposed to severe floods. On the other hand, flood risk calculation is still very limited in the area. This study has calculated the risk of flooding for Jakarta using 2-Dimensional Model ANUGA. 2-Dimensional model ANUGA and 1-Dimensional Model HEC-RAS are used to calculate the risk of flooding from 13 major rivers in Jakarta. ANUGA can simulate physical and dynamical processes between the streamflow against river geometry and land cover to produce a 1-meter resolution inundation map. The value of streamflow as an input for the model obtained from hydrological analysis on rainfall data using hydrologic model HEC-HMS. The probabilistic streamflow derived from probabilistic rainfall using statistical distribution Log-Pearson III, Normal and Gumbel, through compatibility test using Chi Square and Smirnov-Kolmogorov. Flood event on 2007 is used as a comparison to evaluate the accuracy of model output. Property damage estimations were calculated based on flood depth for 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return period against housing value data from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Centre for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements, Ministry of Public Work Indonesia. The vulnerability factor was derived from flood insurance claim. Jakarta's flood loss estimation for the return period of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, respectively are Rp 1.30 t; Rp 16.18 t; Rp 16.85 t; Rp 21.21 t; Rp 24.32 t; and Rp 24.67 t of the total value of building Rp 434.43 t.

Keywords: 2D hydrodynamic model, ANUGA, flood, flood modeling

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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Authors: Darren Edwards, Thomas Pinna

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Background: Interoception and heart rate variability have been found to predict outcomes of mental health and well-being. However, these have usually been investigated independently of one another. Objectives: This review aimed to explore the associations between interoception and heart rate variability (HRV) with emotion regulation (ER) and ER strategies within the existing literature and utilizing systematic review methodology. Methods: The process of article retrieval and selection followed the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Databases PsychINFO, Web of Science, PubMed, CINAHL, and MEDLINE were scanned for papers published. Preliminary inclusion and exclusion criteria were specified following the patient, intervention, comparison, and outcome (PICO) framework, whilst the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modeling studies (CHARMS) framework was used to help formulate the research question, and to critically assess for bias in the identified full-length articles. Results: 237 studies were identified after initial database searches. Of these, eight studies were included in the final selection. Six studies explored the associations between HRV and ER, whilst three investigated the associations between interoception and ER (one of which was included in the HRV selection too). Overall, the results seem to show that greater HRV and interoception are associated with better ER. Specifically, high parasympathetic activity largely predicted the use of adaptive ER strategies such as reappraisal, and better acceptance of emotions. High interoception, instead, was predictive of effective down-regulation of negative emotions and handling of social uncertainty, there was no association with any specific ER strategy. Conclusions: Awareness of one’s own bodily feelings and vagal activation seem to be of central importance for the effective regulation of emotional responses.

Keywords: emotional regulation, vagal tone, interoception, chronic conditions, health and well-being, psychological flexibility

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Authors: Abdulmohsen Alruwaili

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A partial differential system featuring momentum and energy balance is often used to describe simulations of flow initiation and thermal shifting in boundary layers. The buoyancy force in terms of temperature is factored in the momentum balance equation. Buoyancy force causes the flow quantity to fluctuate along the streamwise direction 𝑋; therefore, the problem can be, to our best knowledge, analyzed through nonsimilar modeling. In this analysis, a nonsimilar model is evolved for radiative mixed convection of a magnetized power-law nanoliquid flow on top of a vertical plate installed in a stationary fluid. The upward linear stretching initiated the flow in the vertical direction. Assuming nanofluids are composite of copper (Cu) and alumina (Al₂O₃) nanoparticles, the viscous dissipation in this case is negligible. The nonsimilar system is dealt with analytically by local nonsimilarity (LNS) via numerical algorithm bvp4c. Surface temperature and flow field are shown visually in relation to factors like mixed convection, magnetic field strength, nanoparticle volume fraction, radiation parameters, and Prandtl number. The repercussions of magnetic and mixed convection parameters on the rate of energy transfer and friction coefficient are represented in tabular forms. The results obtained are compared to the published literature. It is found that the existence of nanoparticles significantly improves the temperature profile of considered nanoliquid. It is also observed that when the estimates of the magnetic parameter increase, the velocity profile decreases. Enhancement in nanoparticle concentration and mixed convection parameter improves the velocity profile.

Keywords: nanofluid, power law model, mixed convection, thermal radiation

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Authors: Gozel Judakova, Markus Bause

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We present and analyze reliable numerical techniques for simulating complex flow and transport phenomena related to natural gas transportation in pipelines. Such kind of problems are of high interest in the field of petroleum and environmental engineering. Modeling and understanding natural gas flow and transformation processes during transportation is important for the sake of physical realism and the design and operation of pipeline systems. In our approach a two fluid flow model based on a system of coupled hyperbolic conservation laws is considered for describing natural gas flow undergoing hydratization. The accurate numerical approximation of two-phase gas flow remains subject of strong interest in the scientific community. Such hyperbolic problems are characterized by solutions with steep gradients or discontinuities, and their approximation by standard finite element techniques typically gives rise to spurious oscillations and numerical artefacts. Recently, stabilized and discontinuous Galerkin finite element techniques have attracted researchers’ interest. They are highly adapted to the hyperbolic nature of our two-phase flow model. In the presentation a streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin approach and a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for the numerical approximation of our flow model of two coupled systems of Euler equations are presented. Then the efficiency and reliability of stabilized continuous and discontinous finite element methods for the approximation is carefully analyzed and the potential of the either classes of numerical schemes is investigated. In particular, standard benchmark problems of two-phase flow like the shock tube problem are used for the comparative numerical study.

Keywords: discontinuous Galerkin method, Euler system, inviscid two-fluid model, streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin method, twophase flow

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Authors: Min Wang, Sergey Utev

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The lessons from the 2007-09 global financial crisis have driven scientific research, which considers the design of new methodologies and financial models in the global market. The quantum mechanics approach was introduced in the unpredictable stock market modeling. One famous quantum tool is Feynman path integral method, which was used to model insurance risk by Tamturk and Utev and adapted to formalize the path-dependent option pricing by Hao and Utev. The research is based on the path-dependent calculation method, which is motivated by the Feynman path integral method. The path calculation can be studied in two ways, one way is to label, and the other is computational. Labeling is a part of the representation of objects, and generating functions can provide many different ways of representing share price paths. In this paper, the recent works on graphical theoretical construction of individual share price path via matroid is presented. Firstly, a study is done on the knowledge of matroid, relationship between lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials and ways to connect points in the lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials is suggested. Secondly, It is found that a general binary tree can be validly constructed from a connected lattice path matroid rather than general lattice path matroid. Lastly, it is suggested that there is a way to represent share price paths via a general binary tree, and an algorithm is developed to construct share price paths from general binary trees. A relationship is also provided between lattice integer points and Tutte polynomials of a transversal matroid. Use this way of connection together with the algorithm, a share price path can be constructed from a given connected lattice path matroid.

Keywords: combinatorial construction, graphical representation, matroid, path calculation, share price, Tutte polynomial

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Amna J. Ghith, Khaled Abu Zid, Khairia Youssef, Nasser Saad

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Backgrounds: The multikinase and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor inhibitors interrupt the pathway by which angiogenesis becomes established and promulgated, resulting in the inadequate nourishment of metastatic disease. VEGFR-2 has been the principal target of anti-angiogenic therapies. We disclose the new thieno pyrimidines as inhibitors of VEGFR-2 designed by a molecular modeling approach with increased synergistic activity and decreased side effects. Purpose: 2-substituted thieno pyrimidines are designed and synthesized with anticipated anticancer activity based on its in silico molecular docking study that supports the initial pharmacophoric hypothesis with a same binding mode of interaction at the ATP-binding site of VEGFR-2 (PDB 2QU5) with high docking score. Methods: A series of compounds were designed using discovery studio 4.1/CDOCKER with a rational that mimic the pharmacophoric features present in the reported active compounds that targeted VEGFR-2. An in silico ADMET study was also performed to validate the bioavailability of the newly designed compounds. Results: The Compounds to be synthesized showed interaction energy comparable to or within the range of the benzimidazole inhibitor ligand when docked with VEGFR-2. ADMET study showed comparable results most of the compounds showed absorption within (95-99) zone varying according to different substitutions attached to thieno pyrimidine ring system. Conclusions: A series of 2-subsituted thienopyrimidines are to be synthesized with anticipated anticancer activity and according to docking study structure requirement for the design of VEGFR-2 inhibitors which can act as powerful anticancer agents.

Keywords: docking, discovery studio 4.1/CDOCKER, heterocycles based anticancer agents, 2-subsituted thienopyrimidines

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Pawthawala Nancy Manish, Syed Alay Hashim

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A hybrid rocket is a rocket engine which uses propellants in two different states of matter- one is in solid and the other either gas or liquid. A hybrid rocket exhibit advantages over both liquid rockets and solid rockets especially in terms of simplicity, stop-start-restart capabilities, safety and cost. This paper deals the design and development of a hybrid rocket having paraffin wax as solid fuel and liquid oxygen as oxidizer. Due to variation of pressure in combustion chamber there is significantly change in mass flow rate, burning rate and uneven regression along the length of the grain. This project describes the working model of a hybrid propellant rocket motor. We have designed a hybrid rocket thrust chamber based on the predetermined combustion chamber pressure and the properties of hybrid propellant. This project is all ready in working condition with normal oxygen injector. Now we have planned to modify the injector design to improve the combustion property. We will use spray type injector for injecting the oxidizer. This idea will increase the performance followed by the regression rate of the solid fuel. By employing mass conservation law, oxygen mass flux, oxidizer/fuel ratio and regression rate the thrust coefficient can be obtained for our current design. CATIA V5 R20 is our design software for the complete setup. This project is fully based on experimental evaluation and the collection of combustion and flow parameters. The thrust chamber is made of stainless steel and the duration of test is around 15-20 seconds (Maximum). These experiments indicates that paraffin based fuel provides the opportunity to satisfy a broad range of mission requirements for the next generation of the hybrid rocket system.

Keywords: burning rate, liquid oxygen, mass flow rate, paraffin wax and sugar

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Authors: Frederic Schenker, Jonathan J. Hendriks, Gianluca Nicchiotti

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In a product industrialization perspective, the end-product shall always be at the peak of technological advancement and developed in the shortest time possible. Thus, the constant growth of complexity and a shorter time-to-market calls for important changes on both the technical and business level. Undeniably, the common understanding of the system is beclouded by its complexity which leads to the communication gap between the engineers and the sale department. This communication link is therefore important to maintain and increase the information exchange between departments to ensure a punctual and flawless delivery to the end customer. This evolution brings engineers to reason with more hindsight and plan ahead. In this sense, they use new viewpoints to represent the data and to express the model deliverables in an understandable way that the different stakeholder may identify their needs and ideas. This article focuses on the usage of Model-Based System Engineering (MBSE) in a perspective of system industrialization and reconnect the engineering with the sales team. The modeling method used and presented in this paper concentrates on displaying as closely as possible the needs of the customer. Firstly, by providing a technical solution to the sales team to help them elaborate commercial offers without omitting technicalities. Secondly, the model simulates between a vast number of possibilities across a wide range of components. It becomes a dynamic tool for powerful analysis and optimizations. Thus, the model is no longer a technical tool for the engineers, but a way to maintain and solidify the communication between departments using different views of the model. The MBSE contribution to cost optimization during New Product Introduction (NPI) activities is made explicit through the illustration of a case study describing the support provided by system models to architectural choices during the industrialization of a novel optical sensor.

Keywords: analytical model, architecture comparison, MBSE, product industrialization, SysML, system thinking

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Authors: Narges Razmjoo, Hamid Sefidari, Michael Strand

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Biomass combustion is a growing technique for heat and power production due to the increasing stringent regulations with CO2 emissions. Grate-fired systems have been regarded as a common and popular combustion technology for burning woody biomass. However, some grate furnaces are not well optimized and may emit significant amount of unwanted compounds such as dust, NOx, CO, and unburned gaseous components. The combustion characteristics inside the fuel bed are of practical interest, as they are directly related to the release of volatiles and affect the stability and the efficiency of the fuel bed combustion. Although numerous studies have been presented on the grate firing of biomass, to the author’s knowledge, none of them have conducted a detailed experimental study within the fuel bed. It is difficult to conduct measurements of temperature and gas species inside the burning bed of the fuel in full-scale boilers. Results from such inside bed measurements can also be applied by the numerical experts for modeling the fuel bed combustion. The current work presents an experimental investigation into the combustion behavior of wet woody biomass (53 %) in a 4 MW reciprocating grate boiler, by focusing on the gas species distribution along the height of the fuel bed. The local concentrations of gases (CO, CO2, CH4, NO, and O2) inside the fuel bed were measured through a glass port situated on the side wall of the furnace. The measurements were carried out at five different heights of the fuel bed, by means of a bent stainless steel probe containing a type-k thermocouple. The sample gas extracted from the fuel bed, through the probe, was filtered and dried and then was analyzed using two infrared spectrometers. Temperatures of about 200-1100 °C were measured close to the grate, indicating that char combustion is occurring at the bottom of the fuel bed and propagates upward. The CO and CO2 concentration varied in the range of 15-35 vol % and 3-16 vol %, respectively, and NO concentration varied between 10-140 ppm. The profile of the gas concentrations distribution along the bed height provided a good overview of the combustion sub-processes in the fuel bed.

Keywords: experimental, fuel bed, grate firing, wood combustion

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Authors: Ali Javaid, Rizwan Latif, Syed Adnan Qasim, Imran Shafi

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To control combustion inside a direct injection diesel engine, fuel atomization is the best tool. Controlling combustion helps in reducing emissions and improves efficiency. Cavitation is one of the most important factors that significantly affect the nature of spray before it injects into combustion chamber. Typical fuel injector nozzles are small and operate at a very high pressure, which limits the study of internal nozzle behavior especially in case of diesel engine. Simulating cavitation in a fuel injector will help in understanding the phenomenon and will assist in further development. There is a parametric variation between high speed and high torque low speed diesel engines. The objective of this study is to simulate internal spray characteristics for a low speed high torque diesel engine. In-nozzle cavitation has strong effects on the parameters e.g. mass flow rate, fuel velocity, and momentum flux of fuel that is to be injected into the combustion chamber. The external spray dynamics and subsequently the air – fuel mixing depends on a lot of the parameters of fuel injecting the nozzle. The approach used to model turbulence induced in – nozzle cavitation for high-torque low-speed diesel engine, is homogeneous equilibrium model. The governing equations were modeled using Matlab. Complete Model in question was extensively evaluated by performing 3-D time-dependent simulations on Open FOAM, which is an open source flow solver and implemented in CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics). Results thus obtained will be analyzed for better evaporation in the near-nozzle region. The proposed analyses will further help in better engine efficiency, low emission, and improved fuel economy.

Keywords: cavitation, HEM model, nozzle flow, open foam, turbulence

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Authors: Redvan Ghasemlounia, Elham Ansari, Hikmet Kerem Cigizoglu

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Hydrological modeling in arid and semi-arid regions is very important. Iran has many regions with these climate conditions such as Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province that needs lots of attention with an appropriate management. Forecasting of hydrological parameters and estimation of hydrological events of catchments, provide important information that used for design, management and operation of water resources such as river systems, and dams, widely. Discharge in rivers is one of these parameters. This study presents the application and comparison of some estimation methods such as Feed-Forward Back Propagation Neural Network (FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) to predict the daily flow discharge of the Soolegan River, located at Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, in Iran. In this study, Soolegan, station was considered. This Station is located in Soolegan River at 51° 14՜ Latitude 31° 38՜ longitude at North Karoon basin. The Soolegan station is 2086 meters higher than sea level. The data used in this study are daily discharge and daily precipitation of Soolegan station. Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Network(FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) models were developed using the same input parameters for Soolegan's daily discharge estimation. The results of estimation models were compared with observed discharge values to evaluate performance of the developed models. Results of all methods were compared and shown in tables and charts.

Keywords: ANN, multi linear regression, Bayesian network, forecasting, discharge, gene expression programming

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Authors: Hang Yang, Jichao Li, Kewei Yang, Tianyang Lei

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Multivariate time series anomaly detection is a significant research topic in the field of data mining, encompassing a wide range of applications across various industrial sectors such as traffic roads, financial logistics, and corporate production. The inherent spatial dependencies and temporal characteristics present in multivariate time series introduce challenges to the anomaly detection task. Previous studies have typically been based on the assumption that all variables belong to the same spatial hierarchy, neglecting the multi-level spatial relationships. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a multi-scale spatial and unified temporal feature fusion network, denoted as MSUT-Net, for multivariate time series anomaly detection. The proposed model employs a multi-level modeling approach, incorporating both temporal and spatial modules. The spatial module is designed to capture the spatial characteristics of multivariate time series data, utilizing an adaptive graph structure learning model to identify the multi-level spatial relationships between data variables and their attributes. The temporal module consists of a unified temporal processing module, which is tasked with capturing the temporal features of multivariate time series. This module is capable of simultaneously identifying temporal dependencies among different variables. Extensive testing on multiple publicly available datasets confirms that MSUT-Net achieves superior performance on the majority of datasets. Our method is able to model and accurately detect systems data with multi-level spatial relationships from a spatial-temporal perspective, providing a novel perspective for anomaly detection analysis.

Keywords: data mining, industrial system, multivariate time series, anomaly detection

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Authors: Kyle Burke Pfeiffer, Carmella Burdi, Karen Marsh

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The evacuation and shelter-in-place planning process employed by most jurisdictions within the United States is not informed by a scientifically-derived framework that is inclusive of the behavioral and policy-related indicators of public compliance with evacuation orders. While a significant body of work exists to define these indicators, the research findings have not been well-integrated nor translated into useable planning factors for public safety officials. Additionally, refinement of the planning factors alone is insufficient to support science-based evacuation planning as the behavioral elements of evacuees—even with consideration of policy-related indicators—must be examined in the context of specific regional transportation and shelter networks. To address this problem, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and Argonne National Laboratory developed an agent-based model to support regional analysis of zone-based evacuation in southeastern Georgia. In particular, this model allows public safety officials to analyze the consequences that a range of hazards may have upon a community, assess evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions in the context of specified evacuation and response plans, and predict outcomes based on community compliance with orders and the capacity of the regional (to include extra-jurisdictional) transportation and shelter networks. The intention is to use this model to aid evacuation planning and decision-making. Applications for the model include developing a science-driven risk communication strategy and, ultimately, in the case of evacuation, the shortest possible travel distance and clearance times for evacuees within the regional boundary conditions.

Keywords: agent-based modeling for evacuation, decision-support for evacuation planning, evacuation planning, human behavior in evacuation

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Authors: Nessreen Y. Ibrahim

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Designing the future according to realistic analytical study for the futuristic market needs can be a milestone strategy to make a huge improvement in developing countries economics. In developing countries, access to high technology and latest science approaches is very limited. The financial problems in low and medium income countries have negative effects on the kind and quality of imported new technologies and application for their markets. Thus, there is a strong need for shifting paradigm thinking in the design process to improve and evolve their development strategy. This paper discusses future possibilities in developing countries, and how they can design their own future according to specific future models FDM (Future Design Models), which established to solve certain economical problems, as well as political and cultural conflicts. FDM is strategic thinking framework provides an improvement in both content and process. The content includes; beliefs, values, mission, purpose, conceptual frameworks, research, and practice, while the process includes; design methodology, design systems, and design managements tools. In this paper the main objective was building an innovative economic model to design a chosen possible futuristic scenario; by understanding the market future needs, analyze real world setting, solve the model questions by future driven design, and finally interpret the results, to discuss to what extent the results can be transferred to the real world. The paper discusses Egypt as a potential case study. Since, Egypt has highly complex economical problems, extra-dynamic political factors, and very rich cultural aspects; we considered Egypt is a very challenging example for applying FDM. The paper results recommended using FDM numerical modeling as a starting point to design the future.

Keywords: developing countries, economic models, future design, possible futures

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Authors: Nigina Toktasynova, Sholpan Sagyndykova, Zhanat Kenzhebayeva, Maksat Kalimoldayev, Mariya Ishimova, Irbulat Utepbergenov

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Any business needs a stable operation and continuous improvement, therefore it is necessary to constantly interact with the environment, to analyze the work of the enterprise in terms of employees, executives and consumers, as well as to correct any inconsistencies of certain types of processes and their aggregate. In the case of heat supply organizations, in addition to suppliers, local legislation must be considered which often is the main regulator of pricing of services. In this case, the process approach used to build a functional organizational structure in these types of businesses in Kazakhstan is a challenge not only in the implementation, but also in ways of analyzing the employee's salary. To solve these problems, we investigated the management system of heating enterprise, including strategic planning based on the balanced scorecard (BSC), quality management in accordance with the standards of the Quality Management System (QMS) ISO 9001 and analysis of the system based on expert judgment using fuzzy inference. To carry out our work we used the theory of fuzzy sets, the QMS in accordance with ISO 9001, BSC according to the method of Kaplan and Norton, method of construction of business processes according to the notation IDEF0, theory of modeling using Matlab software simulation tools and graphical programming LabVIEW. The results of the work are as follows: We determined possibilities of improving the management of heat-supply plant-based on QMS; after the justification and adaptation of software tool it has been used to automate a series of functions for the management and reduction of resources and for the maintenance of the system up to date; an application for the analysis of the QMS based on fuzzy inference has been created with novel organization of communication software with the application enabling the analysis of relevant data of enterprise management system.

Keywords: balanced scorecard, heat supply, quality management system, the theory of fuzzy sets

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Authors: N. V. Kazmiruk, Y. R. Nartsissov

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Phosphate activated glutaminase (GA, E.C. 3.5.1.2) plays a key role in glutamine/glutamate homeostasis in mammalian brain, catalyzing the hydrolytic deamidation of glutamine to glutamate and ammonium ions. GA is mainly localized in mitochondria, where it has the catalytically active form on the inner mitochondrial membrane (IMM) and the other soluble form, which is supposed to be dormant. At present time, the exact localization of the membrane glutaminase active site remains a controversial and an unresolved issue. The first hypothesis called c-side localization suggests that the catalytic site of GA faces the inter-membrane space and products of the deamidation reaction have immediate access to cytosolic metabolism. According to the alternative m-side localization hypothesis, GA orients to the matrix, making glutamate and ammonium available for the tricarboxylic acid cycle metabolism in mitochondria directly. In our study, we used a multi-compartment kinetic approach to simulate metabolism of glutamate and glutamine in the astrocytic cytosol and mitochondria. We used physiologically important ratio between the concentrations of glutamine inside the matrix of mitochondria [Glnₘᵢₜ] and glutamine in the cytosol [Glncyt] as a marker for precise functioning of the system. Since this ratio directly depends on the mitochondrial glutamine carrier (MGC) flow parameters, key observation was to investigate the dependence of the [Glnmit]/[Glncyt] ratio on the maximal velocity of MGC at different initial concentrations of mitochondrial glutamate. Another important task was to observe the similar dependence at different inhibition constants of the soluble GA. The simulation results confirmed the experimental c-side localization hypothesis, in which the glutaminase active site faces the outer surface of the IMM. Moreover, in the case of such localization of the enzyme, a 3-fold decrease in ammonium production was predicted.

Keywords: glutamate metabolism, glutaminase, kinetic approach, mitochondrial membrane, multi-compartment modeling

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Authors: Dong Wu, Michael Grenn

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Managing software projects effectively is crucial for meeting deadlines, ensuring quality, and managing resources well. Traditional methods often struggle with predicting project timelines accurately due to uncertain schedules and complex data. This study addresses these challenges by combining time prediction algorithms with Large Language Models (LLMs). It makes use of real-world software project data to construct and validate a model. The model takes detailed project progress data such as task completion dynamic, team Interaction and development metrics as its input and outputs predictions of project timelines. To evaluate the effectiveness of this model, a comprehensive methodology is employed, involving simulations and practical applications in a variety of real-world software project scenarios. This multifaceted evaluation strategy is designed to validate the model's significant role in enhancing forecast accuracy and elevating overall management efficiency, particularly in complex software project environments. The results indicate that the integration of time prediction algorithms with LLMs has the potential to optimize software project progress management. These quantitative results suggest the effectiveness of the method in practical applications. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that integrating time prediction algorithms with LLMs can significantly improve the predictive accuracy and efficiency of software project management. This offers an advanced project management tool for the industry, with the potential to improve operational efficiency, optimize resource allocation, and ensure timely project completion.

Keywords: software project management, time prediction algorithms, large language models (LLMS), forecast accuracy, project progress prediction

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Authors: Mahzabin Afroz, Indubhushan Patnaikuni, Srikanth Venkatesan

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It is well-known that fly ash can be used in high volume as a partial replacement of cement to get beneficial effects on concrete. High volume fly ash (HVFA) concrete is currently emerging as a popular option to strengthen by fiber. Although studies have supported the use of fibers with fly ash, a unified model along with the incorporation into finite element software package to estimate the maximum flexural loads need to be developed. In this study, nonlinear finite element analysis of steel fiber reinforced high strength HVFA concrete beam under static loadings was conducted to investigate their failure modes in terms of ultimate load. First of all, the experimental investigation of mechanical properties of high strength HVFA concrete was done and validates with developed numerical model with the appropriate modeling of element size and mesh by ANSYS 16.2. To model the fiber within the concrete, three-dimensional random fiber distribution was simulated by spherical coordinate system. Three types of high strength HVFA concrete beams were analyzed reinforced with 0.5, 1 and 1.5% volume fractions of steel fibers with specific mechanical and physical properties. The result reveals that the use of nonlinear finite element analysis technique and three-dimensional random fiber orientation exhibited fairly good agreement with the experimental results of flexural strength, load deflection and crack propagation mechanism. By utilizing this improved model, it is possible to determine the flexural behavior of different types and proportions of steel fiber reinforced HVFA concrete beam under static load. So, this paper has the originality to predict the flexural properties of steel fiber reinforced high strength HVFA concrete by numerical simulations.

Keywords: finite element analysis, high volume fly ash, steel fibers, spherical coordinate system

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Authors: Muhd. Barzani Gasim, Mohd. Ekhwan Toriman, Mohd. Khairul Amri Kamarudin, Azman Azid, Siti Humaira Haron, Muhammad Hafiz Md. Saad

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Malaysia is a country in Southeast Asia that constantly exposed to flooding and landslide. The disaster has caused some troubles such loss of property, loss of life and discomfort of people involved. This problem occurs as a result of climate change leading to increased stream flow rate as a result of disruption to regional hydrological cycles. The aim of the study is to determine hydrologic processes in the east coasts of Peninsular Malaysia, especially in Kelantan Basin. Parameterized to account for the spatial and temporal variability of basin characteristics and their responses to climate variability. For hydrological modeling of the basin, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model such as relief, soil type, and its use, and historical daily time series of climate and river flow rates are studied. The interpretation of Landsat map/land uses will be applied in this study. The combined of SWAT and climate models, the system will be predicted an increase in future scenario climate precipitation, increase in surface runoff, increase in recharge and increase in the total water yield. As a result, this model has successfully developed the basin analysis by demonstrating analyzing hydrographs visually, good estimates of minimum and maximum flows and severe floods observed during calibration and validation periods.

Keywords: east coasts of Peninsular Malaysia, Kelantan river basin, minimum and maximum flows, severe floods, SWAT model

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Authors: Syed Toqueer, Omer Younus

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Terrorism, today, has emerged as a global menace with Pakistan being the most adversely affected state. Therefore, the motive behind this study is to empirically establish the linkage of terrorism with socio-economic (uneven income distribution, poverty and unemployment) and political nexuses so that a policy recommendation can be put forth to better approach this issue in Pakistan. For this purpose, the study employs two competing models, namely, the distributed lag model and OLS, so that findings of the model may be consolidated comprehensively, over the reference period of 1984-2012. The findings of both models are indicative of the fact that uneven income distribution of Pakistan is rather a contributing factor towards terrorism when measured through GDP per capita. This supports the hypothesis that immiserizing modernization theory is applicable for the state of Pakistan where the underprivileged are marginalized. Results also suggest that other socio-economic variables (poverty, unemployment and consumer confidence) can condense the brutality of terrorism once these conditions are catered to and improved. The rational of opportunity cost is at the base of this argument. Poor conditions of employment and poverty reduces the opportunity cost for individuals to be recruited by terrorist organizations as economic returns are considerably low and thus increasing the supply of volunteers and subsequently increasing the intensity of terrorism. The argument of political freedom as a means of lowering terrorism stands true. The more the people are politically repressed the more alternative and illegal means they will find to make their voice heard. Also, the argument that politically transitioning economy faces more terrorism is found applicable for Pakistan. Finally, the study contributes to an ongoing debate on which of the two set of factors are more significant with relation to terrorism by suggesting that socio-economic factors are found to be the primary causes of terrorism for Pakistan.

Keywords: terrorism, socioeconomic conditions, political freedom, distributed lag model, ordinary least square

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Authors: Nesreddine Djafar Henni, Akram Khelaifia, Salah Guettala, Rachid Chebili

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Reinforced concrete shear walls and vertical plate-like elements play a pivotal role in efficiently managing a building's response to seismic forces. This study investigates how the performance of reinforced concrete buildings equipped with shear walls featuring different shear wall-to-frame stiffness ratios aligns with the requirements stipulated in the Algerian seismic code RPA99v2003, particularly in high-seismicity regions. Seven distinct 3D finite element models are developed and evaluated through nonlinear static analysis. Engineering Demand Parameters (EDPs) such as lateral displacement, inter-story drift ratio, shear force, and bending moment along the building height are analyzed. The findings reveal two predominant categories of induced responses: force-based and displacement-based EDPs. Furthermore, as the shear wall-to-frame ratio increases, there is a concurrent increase in force-based EDPs and a decrease in displacement-based ones. Examining the distribution of shear walls from both force and displacement perspectives, model G with the highest stiffness ratio, concentrating stiffness at the building's center, intensifies induced forces. This configuration necessitates additional reinforcements, leading to a conservative design approach. Conversely, model C, with the lowest stiffness ratio, distributes stiffness towards the periphery, resulting in minimized induced shear forces and bending moments, representing an optimal scenario with maximal performance and minimal strength requirements.

Keywords: dual RC buildings, RC shear walls, modeling, static nonlinear pushover analysis, optimization, seismic performance

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