Search results for: risk groups

Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

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Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: perceived risk, online contracts, Saudi Arabia, consumer protection

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability

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Authors: David Glew, Felix Thomas, Matthew Brooke-Peat

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Improving the thermal performance of homes is seen as an essential step in achieving climate change, fuel security, fuel poverty targets. One of the most effective thermal retrofits is to insulate solid walls. However, it has been observed that applying insulation to the internal face of solid walls reduces the surface temperature of the inner wall leaf, which may introduce condensation risk and may interrupt seasonal moisture accumulation and dissipation. This research quantifies the extent to which the risk of condensation and moisture accumulation in the wall increases (which can increase the risk of timber rot) following the installation of six different types of internal wall insulation. In so doing, it compares how risk is affected by both the thermal resistance, thickness, and breathability of the insulation. Thermal bridging, surface temperatures, condensation risk, and moisture accumulation are evaluated using hygrothermal simulation software before and after the thermal upgrades. The research finds that installing internal wall insulation will always introduce some risk of condensation and moisture. However, it identifies that risks were present prior to insulation and that breathable materials and insulation with lower resistance have lower risks than alternative insulation options. The implications of this may be that building standards that encourage the enhanced thermal performance of solid walls may be introducing moisture risks into homes.

Keywords: condensation risk, hygrothermal simulation, internal wall insulation, thermal bridging

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Authors: Yin-Hsuan Wu, Perng-Jy Tsai, Ying-Fang Wang, Shun-Hui Chung

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The present study was conducted to characterize exposure concentrations, concentrations deposited on the different respiratory regions, and resultant health risks associated with heavy metal exposures for road marking workers. Road marking workers of three similar exposure groups (SEGs) were selected, including the paint pouring worker, marking worker, and preparing worker. Personal exposure samples were collected using an inhalable dust sampler (IOM), and the involved particle size distribution samples were estimated using an eight-stage Marple personal cascade impactor during five working days. In total, 25 IOM samples and 20 Marple samples were collected. All collected samples were analyzed for their heavy metal contents using the ICP/MS. The resultant heavy metal particle size distributions were also used to estimate the fractions of particle deposited on the head airways (Chead), tracheobronchial (Cthorac) and alveolar regions (Cresp) of the exposed workers. In addition, Pb and Cr were selected to estimate the incremental cancer risk, and Zn, Ti, and Mo were selected to estimate the corresponding non-cancer risk in the present study. Results show that three heavy metals, including Pb, Cr, and Ti, were found with the highest concentrations for the SEG of the paint pouring worker (=0.585±2.98, 0.307±1.71, 0.902±2.99 μg/m³, respectively). For the fraction of heavy metal particle deposited on the respiratory tract, both alveolar and head regions were found with the highest values (=23-43% and 39-61%, respectively). For both SEGs of the paint pouring and marking, 51% of Cr, 59-61% of Zn, and 48-51% of Ti were found to be deposited on the alveolar region, and 41-43% of Pb was deposited on the head region. Finally, the incremental cancer risk for the SEGs of the paint pouring, marking, and preparing were found as 1.08×10⁻⁵, 2.78×10⁻⁶, and 2.20×10⁻⁶, respectively. In addition, the estimated non-cancer risk for the above three SEGs was found to be consistently less than unity. In conclusion, though the estimated non-cancer risk was less than unity, all resultant incremental cancer risk was greater than 10⁻⁶ indicating the abatement of workers’ exposure is necessary. It is suggested that strategies, including placing on the molten kettle, substitution the currently used paints for less heavy metal containing paints, and wearing fume protecting personal protective equipment can be considered in the future from reducing the worker’s exposure aspect.

Keywords: health risk assessment, heavy metal, respiratory track deposition, road marking

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Authors: T. Hojageldiyev, Y. Bolmammedov

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Increasing evidence suggests late chronotype individuals are at increased risk of developing psychopathological conditions. Our previously conducted study aimed to know the distribution of chronotypes according to age revealed that evening-types reaching a peak at age 14. While there is growing number of studies evaluating associations between chronotype and affective symptoms, to our best knowledge there are no studies addressing the issue of prevalence of anhedonia according to age groups of people. The sample included 545 healthy students between 13-21 years old from secondary schools and universities of Turkmenistan. Self-report 14 item Snaith-Hamilton Pleasure Scale (SHAPS) was used to assess hedonic tone of students. SHAPS score of 3 or higher indicates the criteria for the anhedonia. According to similarity of hedonic capacity participants divided into three age groups. Group I (age 13-14-15) includes 206 students (92 female), group II (age 16-17) includes 256 students (111 female) and group III (age 18-19-20-21) includes 83 (37 female). Statistical analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel 2013 and GraphPad Prism 7.0 programs. According to results average SHAPS scores of group I is 1.93 ± 1.94, group II 1.08 ± 1.43 and group III 1.29 ± 1.62. Students with anhedonia in group I consisted 30.5%, in group II 13,2% and in group III 12.04%. There are no gender differences. According to questionnaire results, higher prevalence of anhedonia is at the age between 13-15 than other age groups, and hedonic capacity increases as the age of students increases (p < 0.05). As a result, distribution of evening-types according to age correlates with hedonic capacity which is evening-types tends to have lower hedonic capacity.

Keywords: anhedonia, age, chronotype, hedonic capacity

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Authors: Lagnajeet Mohanty, Mohnish Mishra, Pratham Tapdiya, Himanshu Sekhar Nayak, Swetapadma Singh

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In the era of global interconnectedness, effective risk assessment and management are critical for organizational resilience. This review explores the integration of machine learning (ML) into risk processes, examining its transformative potential and the challenges it presents. The literature reveals ML's success in sectors like consumer credit, demonstrating enhanced predictive accuracy, adaptability, and potential cost savings. However, ethical considerations, interpretability issues, and the demand for skilled practitioners pose limitations. Looking forward, the study identifies future research scopes, including refining ethical frameworks, advancing interpretability techniques, and fostering interdisciplinary collaborations. The synthesis of limitations and future directions highlights the dynamic landscape of ML in risk management, urging stakeholders to navigate challenges innovatively. This abstract encapsulates the evolving discourse on ML's role in shaping proactive and effective risk management strategies in our interconnected and unpredictable global landscape.

Keywords: machine learning, risk assessment, ethical considerations, financial inclusion

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Authors: Alia Ali, Azeem Taj, Muhammed Joher Amin, Farrukh Iqbal, Zafar Iqbal

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Background: Hypertension is commonly found in patients with Diabetic Kidney Disease (DKD). Microalbuminuria is the first clinical sign of involvement of kidneys in patients with type 2 diabetes. Uncontrolled hypertension induces a higher risk of cardiovascular events, including death, increasing proteinuria and progression to kidney disease. Objectives: To determine the correlation between microalbuminuria and hypertension and their association with other risk factors in type 2 diabetic patients. Methods: One hundred and thirteen type 2 diabetic patients were screened for microalbuminuria and raised blood pressure, attending the diabetic clinic of Shaikh Zayed Hospital, Lahore, Pakistan. The study was conducted from November 2012 to June 2013. Results: Patients were divided into two groups. Group 1, those with normoalbuminuria (n=63) and Group 2, those having microalbuminuria (n=50). Group 2 patients showed higher blood pressure values as compared to Group 1. The results were statistically significant and showed poor glycemic control as a contributing risk factor. Conclusion: The study concluded that there is high frequency of hypertension among type 2 diabetics but still much higher among those having microalbuminuria. So, early recognition of renal dysfunction through detection of microalbuminuria and to start treatment without any delay will confer future protection from end-stage renal disease as well as hypertension and its complications in type 2 diabetic patients.

Keywords: hypertension, microalbuminuria, diabetic kidney disease, type 2 Diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge

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In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.

Keywords: client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis

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Authors: Nuruddeen Usman, Usman Mohammed Gidado, Muhammad Ahmad Ibrahim

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Construction industry is one of the sectors that are eyeing adoption of ICT for its development due to the advancement in technology. Though, many manufacturing sectors had been using it, but construction industry was left behind, especially in the developing nation like Nigeria. On account of that, the objective of this study is to conceptually and quantitatively synthesise whether the slow adoption of ICT by the construction industries can be attributable to cybercrime threats. The result of the investigation found that, the risk of cybercrime, and lack of adequate cyber security policies that can enforce and punish defaulters are among the things that hinder ICT adoption of the Nigerian construction industries. Therefore, there is need for the nations to educate their citizens on cybercrime risk, and to establish cybercrime police units that can be monitoring and controlling all online communications.

Keywords: construction industry, cybercrime, information and communication technology adoption, risk

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Authors: Xiaobo Wang, Zhen-Yu Chen

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Higher plasma total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) are independent risk factors of cardiovascular disease while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is protective. Vitamin D is well-known for its regulatory role in calcium homeostasis. Its potential important role in cardiovascular disease has recently attracted much attention. This study was conducted to investigate effects of different dosage of calcitriol on plasma lipoprotein profile and the underlying mechanism. Sixty male Syrian Golden hamsters were randomly divided into 6 groups: no-cholesterol control (NCD), high-cholesterol control (HCD), groups with calcitriol supplementation at 10/20/40/80ng/kg body weight (CA, CB, CC, CD), respectively. Calcitriol in medium-chain triacylglycerol (MCT) oil was delivered to four experimental groups via oral gavage every other day, while NCD and HCD received MCT oil in the equivalent amount. NCD hamsters were fed with non-cholesterol diet while other five groups were maintained on diet containing 0.2% cholesterol to induce a hypercholesterolemic condition. The treatment lasts for 6 weeks followed by sample collection after hamsters sacrificed. Four experimental groups experienced a reduction in average food intake around 11% compared to HCD with slight decrease in body weight (not exceeding 10%). This reduction reflects on the deceased relative weights of testis, epididymal and perirenal adipose tissue in a dose-dependent manner. Plasma calcitriol levels were measured and was corresponding to oral gavage. At the end of week 6, lipoprotein profiles were improved with calcitriol supplementation with TC, non-HDL-C and plasma triglyceride (TG) decreased in a dose-dependent manner (TC: r=0.373, p=0.009, non-HDL-C: r=0.479, p=0.001, TG: r=0.405, p=0.004). Since HDL-C of four experiment groups showed no significant difference compared to HCD, the ratio of nHDL-C to HDL-C and HDL-C to TC had been restored in a dose-dependent manner. For hamsters receiving the highest level of calcitriol (80ng/kg) showed a reduction of TC by 11.5%, nHDL-C by 24.1% and TG by 31.25%. Little difference was found among six groups on the acetylcholine-induced endothelium-dependent relaxation or contraction of thoracic aorta. To summarize, calcitriol supplementation in hamster at maximum 80ng/kg body weight for 6 weeks lead to an overall improvement in plasma lipoprotein profile with decreased TC and TG level. The molecular mechanism of its effects is under investigation.

Keywords: cholesterol, vitamin D, calcitriol, hamster

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Authors: Nguyen Viet Tan

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The Bahnar is one of 11 indigenous groups living in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. It is one among the four most popular groups in this area, including the Mnong who speak the same language of Mon Khmer family, while both groups of the Jrai and the Rhade belong to the Malayo-Polynesian language family. These groups once captured fertile plateaus, left their cultural and artistic heritage which affected the remaining small groups. Despite the difference in ethnic origins, these groups seem to share similar beliefs, customs and related folk arts after a very long time living beside each other. However, through an in-depth study, this paper points out the fact that the decorative patterns used by the Bahnar are different from the other ethnic groups, especially in color. Based on historical materials from the local museums and some studies in 1980s when all of the ethnic groups in this area had still lived in self-sufficient condition, this paper characterizes the traditional color scheme used by the Bahnar and identifies the difference in decorative motifs of this group compared to the others by pointing out they do not use green in their usual decorative patterns. Moreover, combined with some field surveys recently, through comparative analysis, it also discovers stylistic variations of these patterns in the process of cultural exchange with the other ethnic groups, both in and out of the region, in modern living conditions. This study helps to preserve and promote the traditional values and cultural identity of the Bahnar people in the Central Highlands of Vietnam, avoiding the fusion of styles among groups during the cultural exchange.

Keywords: Bahnar ethnic group, decorative patterns, the central highlands of Vietnam, the traditional color scheme

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.

Keywords: human vulnerabilities, human security, immediate-inert, material-immaterial, timespace

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Authors: Lejla Sunagic

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The aim of the manuscript is to further the understanding of risky decision-making in the context of forced and irregular migration. The empirical evidence is collected through interviews with Syrian refugees who arrived in Europe via irregular pathways. Analytically, it has been approached through the juxtaposition between risk perception and the notion of desire. As different frameworks have been developed to address differences in risk perception, the common thread was the understanding that individual risk-taking has been addressed in terms of benefits outweighing risks. However, this framework cannot explain a big risk an individual takes because of an underprivileged position and due to a lack of positive alternatives, termed as risk-taking from vulnerability. The accounts of the field members of this study that crossed the sea in rubber boats to arrive in Europe make an empirical fit to such a postulate by reporting that the risk they have taken was not the choice but the only coping strategy. However, the vulnerability argument falls short of explaining why the interviewees, thinking retrospectively, find the risky journey they have taken to be worth it, while they would strongly advise others to restrain from taking such a huge risk. This inconsistency has been addressed by adding the notion of desire to migrate to the elements of risk perception. Desire, as a subjective experience, was what made the risk appear smaller in cost-benefit analysis at the time of decision-making of those who have realized migration. However, when they reflect on others in the context of potential migration via the same pathway, the interviewees addressed the others’ lack of capacity to avoid the same obstacles that they themselves were able to circumvent while omitting to reflect on others’ desire to migrate. Thus, in the risk-benefit analysis performed for others, the risk remains unblurred and tips over the benefits, given the inability to take into account the desire of others. If desire, as the transformative potential of migration, is taken out of the cost-benefit analysis of irregular migration, refugees might not have taken the risky journey. By casting the theoretical argument in the language of configuration, the study is filling in the gap of knowledge on the combination of migration drivers and the way they interact and produce migration outcomes.

Keywords: refugees, risk perception, desire, irregular migration

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Authors: Jongsung Kim, Daegun Han, Myungjin Lee, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters are gradually increasing due to climate change. Especially in Korea, large-scale damage caused by heavy rainfall frequently occurs due to rapid urbanization. Therefore, this study proposed a Heavy rain Damage Risk Index (HDRI) using PSR (Pressure – State - Response) structure for heavy rain risk assessment. We constructed pressure index, state index, and response index for the risk assessment of each local government in Gyeonggi-do province, and the evaluation indices were determined by principal component analysis. The indices were standardized using the Z-score method then HDRIs were obtained for 31 local governments in the province. The HDRI is categorized into three classes, say, the safest class is 1st class. As the results, the local governments of the 1st class were 15, 2nd class 7, and 3rd class 9. From the study, we were able to identify the risk class due to the heavy rainfall for each local government. It will be useful to develop the heavy rainfall prediction function by risk class, and this was performed in this issue. Also, this risk class could be used for the decision making for efficient disaster management. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2017R1A2B3005695).

Keywords: natural disaster, heavy rain risk assessment, HDRI, PSR

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Authors: Narumon Piaseu

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This survey research was aimed to describe and compare consumption behavior of health risk food among students in Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Sample included 400 undergraduate students enrolled in the first semester of 2008 academic year. Data were collected by using self reported questionnaire developed by the researcher. Data were then analyzed by descriptive statistics including frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and inferential statistics including independent t-test, and Oneway ANOVA. Results revealed that most of the sample were women (67%), enrolled in social related programs (74%). Approximately half of them (45.5%) stayed in dormitory. The mean of monthly income was 5,164 Baht and daily food expenditure was 114.55 Baht. Majority of them (83%) had ready-to-eat food. A major factor influencing their food selection was their parents (61%). A main reason for their food selection was food that looks good (70.75%). Almost half of them (46.25%) had heavy exercise less than 3 times per week. Regarding knowledge on health risk food, 43.5% of the sample had good knowledge. The followings were moderate (41%) and poor (41%). Most of the sample (60.75%) had consumption behavior at low risk. The following was at moderate risk (37.25%). Only 2% were at high risk. Among the sample, consumption behavior of health risk food were significantly different in years of study (F = 3.168, p = .024), daily food expenditure (F = 8.950, p <.001), and knowledge on health risk food (F = 37.856, p <.001), while no significant difference in consumption behavior of health risk food was found in those with a difference in gender, program of study, living place, and monthly income. Results indicate the importance of providing knowledge regarding health risk food for students and their parents in order to promote appropriate food consumption behavior among the students.

Keywords: food consumption, risky behavior, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, health risk

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Authors: M. Nasiri

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Aim: Considering the hypoglisimic ad hipolipidimic effect of the fenugreek seed and aerobic exercise training, this study was conducted to evaluate the effect of fenugreek and aerobic exercise training on insulin resistance in women with type 2 diabetes. Methodology: 32 patients with type II diabetes were selected and randomly divided into four groups: control, fenugreek, training and fenugreek - training. Fenugreek groups used 10 grams of fenugreek seeds daily for eight weeks on two occasions before noon and evening meal. Training of groups is also performed a regular program of aerobic exercise 65-55% of maximum heart rate (4 days per week).Two days before and after the training period, blood samples were taken from their brachial veins in a fasting state (12 hours prior to the test) in a sitting position. The data was analyzed used of t-independent and ANOVA at a significance level of α < 0.05. Results: Intra-group changes in all experimental groups showed that significant decrease insulin resistance, and the difference between groups showed significant difference between the groups of fenugreek - training than other groups there. Conclusions: According to the research findings to fenugreek combined with aerobic exercise more beneficial effect on the inhibition of insulin resistance in women with diabetes are recommended to them.

Keywords: fenugreek, training, insulin resistance, diabetes

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Authors: Mahdokht Sadeghvishkaei, Azizah Abdul-Hamid, Amin Ismail, Nazamid Saari

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Hypertension is a common and serious chronic health problem and known as the most important risk factor for development of many diseases such as stroke. Since angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) is the key enzyme involved in blood pressure, one of the well accepted mechanisms to control hypertension is through ACE inhibition. The ACE inhibitory effect of Actinopyga lecanora (stone fish) proteolysate in vitro had been reported. Hence, this study aimed to evaluate the ACE inhibitory potential of Actinopyga lecanora proteolysate in vivo in normotensive rats. Therefore the ACE inhibitory capability of the proteolysate to prevent increasing systolic blood pressure, after inducing hypertension by angiotensin I was examined. The pre-fed rats with the proteolysates at various doses (200, 400, 800 mg/kg body weight) revealed the significant (p ≤ 0.05) suppression effect compared with control groups. Furthermore, different doses of the proteolysate (200, 400, 800 mg/kg body weight) were examined to find its optimum effective dose. Results depicted that 800 mg proteolysate/kg body weight significantly reduced systolic blood pressure without negative effect on normal blood pressure (p ≤ 0.05). Furthermore, Sub-acute toxicity study based on OECD guideline demonstrated the safety of the proteolysate in vivo. The present study indicated that the proteolysate at a dose of 1000 mg/kg daily for 14 days did not cause toxicity signs such as death, changes in activity, or piloerection. Since there are no significant differences between treated groups and control groups, hematological and biochemical analysis confirmed safety of the proteolysate (p > 0.05). In addition, there were no significant differences between organs weights of the treated groups and the control groups. Morphologically, neither histopathological changes, nor gross abnormalities were observed. However, the proteolysate caused significant decrease in body weight in relation to the control groups (p ≤ 0.05) probably due to appetite stimulation by the proteolysate, leading to decreased food consumption in sub-acute group. It is concluded that the proteolysate generated from Actinopyga lecanora possess a significant anti-hypertensive effect and would be potentially used as natural alternative of ACE inhibitors.

Keywords: ACE inhibition, Actinopyga lecanora, anti-hypertensive activity, bioactive peptides, normotensive rats

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Authors: Mathias Linden, André Schneider, Harald F. O. von Korflesch

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The risk of train accidents is an ongoing concern for railway organizations, governments, insurance companies and other depended sectors. Safety technologies are installed to reduce and to prevent potential damages of train accidents. Since the budgetary for the safety of railway organizations is limited, it is necessary not only to achieve a high availability and high safety standard but also to be cost effective. Therefore, an economic assessment of safety technologies is fundamental to create an accurate risk analysis. In order to conduct an economical assessment of a railway safety technology and a quantification of the costs of the accident causes, the Global Railway Accident Database & Evaluation (GRADE) has been developed. The aim of this paper is to describe the structure of this accident database and to show how it can be used for risk analyses. A number of risk analysis methods, such as the probabilistic safety assessment method (PSA), was used to demonstrate this accident database’s different possibilities of risk analysis. In conclusion, it can be noted that these analyses would not be as accurate without GRADE. The information gathered in the accident database was not available in this way before. Our findings are relevant for railway operators, safety technology suppliers, assurances, governments and other concerned railway organizations.

Keywords: accident causes, accident costs, accident database, global railway accident database & evaluation, GRADE, probabilistic safety assessment, PSA, railway accidents, risk analysis

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Authors: Chatelier Charlene, Oyegoke Adekunle, Ajayi Saheed, Jeffries Andrew

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This study seeks to understand Schedule Risk Assessments as a priori for better performance whilst exploring the strategies employed to deliver complex projects like the New Polar research ship. This high-profile vessel was offered to Natural Environment Research Council and British Antarctic Survey (BAS) by Cammell Laird Shipbuilders. The Research Ship was designed to support science in extreme environments, with the expectancy to provide a wide range of specialist scientific facilities, instruments, and laboratories to conduct research over multiple disciplines. Aim: The focus is to understand the allocation and management of schedule risk on such a Major Project. Hypothesising that "effective management of schedule risk management" could be the most critical factor in determining whether the intended benefits mentioned are delivered within time and cost constraints. Objective 1: Firstly, the study seeks to understand the allocation and management of schedule risk in Major Projects. Objective 2: Secondly, it explores "effective management of schedule risk management" as the most critical factor determining the delivery of intended benefits. Methodology: This study takes a retrospective review of schedule risk management and how it influences project performance using a case study approach for the RRS (Royal Research Ship) Sir David Attenborough. Research Contribution: The outcomes of this study will contribute to a better understanding of project performance whilst building on its under-researched relationship to schedule risk management for complex projects. The outcomes of this paper will guide further research on project performance and enable the understanding of how risk-based estimates over time impact the overall risk management of the project.

Keywords: complexity, major projects, performance management, schedule risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Djamil Aïssani

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Risk models, recently studied in the literature, are becoming increasingly complex. It is rare to find explicit analytical relations to calculate the ruin probability. Indeed, the stability issue occurs naturally in ruin theory, when parameters in risk cannot be estimated than with uncertainty. However, in most cases, there are no explicit formulas for the ruin probability. Hence, the interest to obtain explicit stability bounds for these probabilities in different risk models. In this paper, we interest to the stability bounds of the univariate classical risk model established using the regenerative processes approach. By adopting an algorithmic approach, we implement this approximation and determine numerically the bounds of ruin probability in the case of large claims (heavy-tailed distribution).

Keywords: heavy-tailed distribution, large claims, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, stability

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Authors: Sherly M. A., Subhankar Karmakar, Terence Chan, Christian Rau

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Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing widespread devastation, economic damage and threat to human lives. Hydrologic impacts of climate change and intensification of urbanization are two root causes of increased flood occurrences, and recent research trends are oriented towards understanding these aspects. Due to rapid urbanization, population of cities across the world has increased exponentially leading to improperly planned developments. Climate change due to natural and anthropogenic activities on our environment has resulted in spatiotemporal changes in rainfall patterns. The combined effect of both aggravates the vulnerability of urban populations to floods. In this context, an efficient and effective flood risk management with its core component as flood risk mapping is essential in prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Urban flood risk mapping involves zoning of an urban region based on its flood risk, which depicts the spatiotemporal pattern of frequency and severity of hazards, exposure to hazards, and degree of vulnerability of the population in terms of socio-economic, environmental and infrastructural aspects. Although vulnerability is a key component of risk, its assessment and mapping is often less advanced than hazard mapping and quantification. A synergic effort from technical experts and social scientists is vital for the effectiveness of flood risk management programs. Despite an increasing volume of quality research conducted on urban flood risk, a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach towards flood risk mapping still remains neglected due to which many of the input parameters and definitions of flood risk concepts are imprecise. Thus, the objectives of this review are to introduce and precisely define the relevant input parameters, concepts and terms in urban flood risk mapping, along with its methodology, current status and limitations. The review also aims at providing thought-provoking insights to potential future researchers and flood management professionals.

Keywords: flood risk, flood hazard, flood vulnerability, flood modeling, urban flooding, urban flood risk mapping

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Authors: Mohamed El-Bady

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The Northern Egyptian Lagoons are (from east to west) Bardawil Lagoon, Manzala Lagoon, Burullus Lagoon, Edku Lagoons and Mariute Lagoon. These lagoons have been received the bulk of drainage water from the lands of Delta and from the other coastal areas. Where, the heavy metals can occur in Lagoons environments through a variety of sources, including industries, wastewaters and domestic effluents. The potential ecological risk index (RI) calculation of the bottom sediments of the northern lagoons depends on contamination factor (CF), potential ecological risk factor and proposed toxic response factor (Tr). Each lagoon with special indices according to its conditions.

Keywords: Northern Lagoons, Nile Delta, ecological risk index, contamination factor

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Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira

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Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.

Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas

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Authors: Mohamed Saad Ahmed Hussien

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This paper discusses the risk management in Islamic banks and aims to determine the difference in the practices and methods of risk management in those banks compared to the conventional banks, and to make a case study of the biggest Islamic bank in Egypt (Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt) to identify the most important financial risks faced and how to manage those risks. It was found that Islamic banks face two types of risks. The first type is similar to the risks in conventional banks; the second type is the additional risks which facing the Islamic banks only as a result of some Islamic modes of financing. With regard to the risk management, Islamic banks such as conventional banks applied the regulatory rules issued by the Central Banks and the Basel Committee; Islamic banks also applied the instructions and procedures issued by the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB). Also, Islamic banks are similar to the conventional banks in the practices and methods which they use to manage the risks. And there are some factors that may affect the risk management in Islamic banks, such as the size of the bank and the efficiency of the administration and the staff of the bank.

Keywords: conventional banks, Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt, Islamic banks, risk management

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Authors: Eva Kirzner

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Based on outcome studies published over the past two decades, in 2018, the ACC/AHA published new guidelines for the management of hypercholesterolemia that incorporate the use of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scanning as a decision tool for ascertaining which patients may benefit from statin therapy. This use is based on the recognition that the absence of calcium on CAC scanning (i.e., a CAC score of zero) usually signifies the absence of significant atherosclerotic deposits in the coronary arteries. Specifically, in patients with a high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), initiation of statin therapy is generally recommended to decrease ASCVD risk. However, among patients with intermediate ASCVD risk, the need for statin therapy is less certain. However, there is a need for new outcome studies that provide evidence that the management of hypercholesterolemia based on these new ACC/AHA recommendations is safe for patients. Based on a Pub-Med and Google Scholar literature search, four relevant population-based or patient-based cohort studies that studied the relationship between CAC scanning, risk assessment or mortality, and statin therapy that were published between 2017 and 2021 were identified (see references). In each of these studies, patients were assessed for their baseline risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) using the Pooled Cohorts Equation (PCE), an ACC/AHA calculator for determining patient risk based on assessment of patient age, gender, ethnicity, and coronary artery disease risk factors. The combined findings of these four studies provided concordant evidence that a zero CAC score defines patients who remain at low clinical risk despite the non-use of statin therapy. Thus, these new studies confirm the use of CAC scanning as a safe tool for reducing the potential overuse of statin therapy among patients with zero CAC scores. Incorporating these new data suggest the following best practice: (1) ascertain ASCVD risk according to the PCE in all patients; (2) following an initial attempt trial to lower ASCVD risk with optimal diet among patients with elevated ASCVD risk, initiate statin therapy for patients who have a high ASCVD risk score; (3) if the ASCVD score is intermediate, refer patients for CAC scanning; and (4) and if the CAC score is zero among the intermediate risk ASCVD patients, statin therapy can be safely withheld despite the presence of an elevated serum cholesterol level.

Keywords: cholesterol, cardiovascular disease, statin therapy, coronary calcium

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Authors: Ghanima Al-Sharrah, Haitham M. Lababidi, Yusuf I. Ali

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The main objective of the current work is to introduce sustainability factors in optimizing the supply chain model for process industries. The supply chain models are normally based on purely economic considerations related to costs and profits. To account for sustainability, two additional factors have been introduced; environment and risk. A supply chain for an entire petroleum organization has been considered for implementing and testing the proposed optimization models. The environmental and risk factors were introduced as indicators reflecting the anticipated impact of the optimal production scenarios on sustainability. The aggregation method used in extending the single objective function to multi-objective function is proven to be quite effective in balancing the contribution of each objective term. The results indicate that introducing sustainability factor would slightly reduce the economic benefit while improving the environmental and risk reduction performances of the process industries.

Keywords: environmental indicators, optimization, risk, supply chain

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Spexin, expressed in central nervous system, has attracted much interest in feeding behavior, obesity, diabetes, energy metabolism and cardiovascular functions. Fetuin A is known as negative acute phase reactant synthesized in the liver. So far, it has become a major concern of many studies in numerous clinical states. The relationship between the concentrations of spexin as well as fetuin A and the risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) were also investigated. Eosinophils, suggested to be associated with the development of CVDs, are introduced as early indicators of cardiometabolic complications. Patients with elevated platelet count, associated with hypercoagulable state in the body, are also more liable to CVDs. In this study, the aim is to examine the profiles of spexin and fetuin A concomitant with the course of variations detected in eosinophil as well as platelet counts in morbid obese children. Thirty-four children with normal-body mass index (N-BMI) and fifty-one morbid obese (MO) children participated in the study. Written-informed consent forms were obtained prior to the study. Institutional ethics committee approved the study protocol. Age- and sex-adjusted BMI percentile tables prepared by World Health Organization were used to classify healthy and obese children. Mean age ± SEM of the children were 9.3 ± 0.6 years and 10.7 ± 0.5 years in N-BMI and MO groups, respectively. Anthropometric measurements of the children were taken. Body mass index values were calculated from weight and height values. Blood samples were obtained after an overnight fasting. Routine hematologic and biochemical tests were performed. Within this context, fasting blood glucose (FBG), insulin (INS), triglycerides (TRG), high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations were measured. Homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) values were calculated. Spexin and fetuin A levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Data were evaluated from the statistical point of view. Statistically significant differences were found between groups in terms of BMI, fat mass index, INS, HOMA-IR and HDL-C. In MO group, all parameters increased as HDL-C decreased. Elevated concentrations in MO group were detected in eosinophils (p<0.05) and platelets (p>0.05). Fetuin A levels decreased in MO group (p>0.05). However, decrease was statistically significant in spexin levels for this group (p<0.05). In conclusion, these results have suggested that increases in eosinophils and platelets exhibit behavior as cardiovascular risk factors. Decreased fetuin A behaved as a risk factor suitable to increased risk for cardiovascular problems associated with the severity of obesity. Along with increased eosinophils, increased platelets and decreased fetuin A, decreased spexin was the parameter, which reflects best its possible participation in the early development of CVD risk in MO children.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases , eosinophils , fetuin A , pediatric morbid obesity , platelets , spexin

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Authors: Thirumila Muthukamaru

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The objective of a Health Risk Assessment (HRA) is to achieve a quality evaluation of risk assessments in a timely manner where adequate controls can be in place to protect workers health, especially during turnarounds where the exposure to health hazards is expected to rise during the performance of the many activities that take place, exposing workers to health risk. HRA development requires a competent team comprising experienced subject matter experts in the field, such as Industrial hygienists, Occupational Health Doctors, Turnaround Coordinators, Operation / Maintenance personnel, etc. The conventional way of conducting HRA is not only tedious and time-consuming but also less appreciated when it is not interpreted correctly, which may contribute to inadequate operationalization of it. Simplification can be the essence of timely intervention in managing health risks. This paper is intended as a sharing of the approach taken to simplify the methodology of developing the HRA report and operationalizing it. The approach includes developing a Generic HRA for turnaround activities to be used as a reference document and the empowerment of identified personnel through upskilling sessions to take up the role of facilitating HRA sessions. This empowerment is one of the key approaches towards the successful translation of the HRA into specific turnaround Job Hazard Analysis (JHA) that embed it in the Permit to Work (PTW) process. The approach used here increases awareness and compliance on HRA for turnaround activities through better interpretation and operationalization of the HRA report, adding value to the risk assessment for turnaround activities.

Keywords: industrial hygiene, health risk assessment, HRA, risk assessment

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Authors: Irena Paramita Pramono

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Islamic bank is a financial industry with huge potential to grow in Indonesia. Profit-sharing agreement in the operations of Islamic banks distinguishes Islamic banks with conventional banks. Profit-sharing agreement allows sharing of benefits and risks between shahibul maal and mudharib in islamic bank. This study aimed to observe the patterns of influence between the risk-sharing agreement, financing risk and Profitability in Islamic banks. This research used several Islamic banks as sample and path analysis method. The empirical results of this research shows that the profit-sharing agreement in deposits structure has no direct significant effect to ROA, but it has indirect effect to ROA through profit-sharing financing. On the other hand, profit-sharing financing has direct and indirect influence to ROA through financing risk. This research shows that profit-sharing financing has a positive significant effect to the financing risk and also to the ROA. The research recommends Islamic banks to continue using and developing profit-sharing agreement in its operational activities, hence to create value.

Keywords: Islamic bank, profit-loss sharing agreement, financing risk, profitability

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Authors: Katalin Bodor, Zsolt Bodor, Robert Szep

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The particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 μm are less studied due to the limited availability of PM₂.₅, and less information is available on the health effects attributable to PM₁₀ in Central-Eastern Europe. The objective of the current study was to assess the human health risk and characterize the spatial and temporal variation of PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ in eight Romanian regions between the 2009-2018 and. The PM concentrations showed high variability over time and spatial distribution. The highest concentration was detected in the Bucharest region in the winter period, and the lowest was detected in West. The relative risk caused by the PM₁₀ for all-cause mortality varied between 1.017 (B) and 1.025 (W), with an average 1.020. The results demonstrate a positive relative risk of cardiopulmonary and lung cancer disease due to exposure to PM₂.₅ on the national average 1.26 ( ± 0.023) and 1.42 ( ± 0.037), respectively.

Keywords: PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, relative risk, health effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 147