Search results for: rainfall events

Authors: Amy Halseth, Kevin Shan, Kye Gilder, John Buse

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The study assessed the effect of prolonged-release naltrexone 32 mg/bupropion 360 mg (NB) on cardiovascular (CV) events in overweight/obese participants at elevated CV risk. Participants must lose ≥ 2% body weight at 16 wks, without a sustained increase in blood pressure, to continue drug. The study was terminated early after second interim analysis with 50% of all CV events. Data on CV endpoints has been published. Current analyses focus on weight change. Intent-to-treat (ITT) population (placebo [PBO] N=4450, NB N=4455) was 54.5% female, 83.5% white, mean age 61 yrs, mean BMI 37.3 kg/m2; 85.2% had type 2 diabetes, 32.1% had CV disease, 17.4% had both. At 52 wks, ITT-LOCF analysis showed greater least squares mean percent change in weight (LSM%ΔBW) with NB (-3.1%; 95% CI -4.8, -1.4) vs PBO (-0.3%; 95% CI -1.9, 1.4). Both groups demonstrated greater weight loss while on-treatment (NB [-7.3%], PBO [-3.9%]). Odds ratios of 5% and 10% weight loss were 3.3 and 4.1 (ITT-LOCF), respectively, in NB over PBO. At 104 wks, on-treatment LSM%ΔBW was -6.3% with NB (n=1137) vs -3.5% with PBO (n=741). Major reasons for NB withdrawal were adverse events (AE, 29%) and patient decision (21%), with GI disorders being the most common. Weight loss with NB in this study, in an older population predominantly with diabetes and elevated CV risk, was somewhat lower than that observed in overweight/obese participants without diabetes and similar to participants with diabetes in Phase 3 studies.

Keywords: contrave, mysimba, obesity, pharmacotherapy, weight loss

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Authors: John Christian Lequiron, Gerry Bagtasa, Olivia Cabrera, Leoncio Amadore, Tolentino Moya

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Changes in air surface temperature play an important role in the Philippine’s economy, industry, health, and food production. While increasing global mean temperature in the recent several decades has prompted a number of climate change and variability studies in the Philippines, most studies still focus on rainfall and tropical cyclones. This study aims to investigate the trend and variability of observed air surface temperature and determine its major influencing factor/s in the Philippines. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to monthly mean temperature of 17 synoptic stations covering 56 years from 1960 to 2015 and a mean change of 0.58 °C or a positive trend of 0.0105 °C/year (p < 0.05) was found. In addition, wavelet decomposition was used to determine the frequency of temperature variability show a 12-month, 30-80-month and more than 120-month cycles. This indicates strong annual variations, interannual variations that coincide with ENSO events, and interdecadal variations that are attributed to PDO and CO2 concentrations. Air surface temperature was also correlated with smoothed sunspot number and galactic cosmic rays, the results show a low to no effect. The influence of ENSO teleconnection on temperature, wind pattern, cloud cover, and outgoing longwave radiation on different ENSO phases had significant effects on regional temperature variability. Particularly, an anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) flow east of the Philippines during the peak and decay phase of El Niño (La Niña) events leads to the advection of warm southeasterly (cold northeasterly) air mass over the country. Furthermore, an apparent increasing cloud cover trend is observed over the West Philippine Sea including portions of the Philippines, and this is believed to lessen the effect of the increasing air surface temperature. However, relative humidity was also found to be increasing especially on the central part of the country, which results in a high positive trend of heat index, exacerbating the effects on human discomfort. Finally, an assessment of gridded temperature datasets was done to look at the viability of using three high-resolution datasets in future climate analysis and model calibration and verification. Several error statistics (i.e. Pearson correlation, Bias, MAE, and RMSE) were used for this validation. Results show that gridded temperature datasets generally follows the observed surface temperature change and anomalies. In addition, it is more representative of regional temperature rather than a substitute to station-observed air temperature.

Keywords: air surface temperature, carbon dioxide, ENSO, galactic cosmic rays, smoothed sunspot number

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Authors: Soorya Vennila

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The present study answers the questions; how does climate change affect the water security in drought prone Ramanathapuram district? and what has water insecurity done to the health of the coastal community? The study area chosen is Devipattinam in Ramanathapuram district. Climate change evidentially wreaked havoc on the community with saltwater intrusion, water quality degradation, water scarcity and its eventual economic, social like power inequality within family and community and health hazards. The climatological data such as rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum temperature were statistically analyzed for trend using Mann-Kendall test. The test was conducted for 14 years (1989-2002) of rainfall data, maximum and minimum temperature and the data were statistically analyzed. At the outset, the water quality samples were collected from Devipattinam to test its physical and chemical parameters and their spatial variation. The results were derived as shown in ARC GIS. Using the water quality test water quality index were framed. And finally, key Informant interview, questionnaire were conducted to capture the gender perception and problem. The data collected were thereafter interpreted using SPSS software for recommendations and suggestions to overcome water scarcity and health problems.

Keywords: health, watersecurity, water quality, climate change

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Authors: Tao Zhang

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As the competition of all kinds of festival events becomes more and more fierce, more and more event organizers try to design a blended festivalscape by integrating multifaceted environmental cues in order to raise the service quality of festival events and then raise visitors’ satisfaction. As the main type of festival events, food festivals are popular in all over the world. The organizers’ of food festivals also try to mix food with multifaceted environmental cues (e.g., music, stage, light, dance) to design a blended festivalscape. However, until now little studies explore the environmental cues of food festivals and their relationship with visitors’ satisfaction. Therefore, the aim of this study is to ascertain the environmental cues of food festival and their relationship with visitors’ satisfaction by using the blended festivalscape theory. Using convenient sampling method, this study investigated 1,000 food festival visitors in Macau. Factor analysis showed there are mainly six environmental cues (i.e., food, atmosphere, program, staff, facility, and information). All six environmental cues are positively related with visitors’ satisfaction, while the most influential factors are food, atmosphere, and program. This study showed that festival event organizers’ should focus on the topic of their festival event, build festival atmosphere, and create interesting programs in order to design a blended festivalscape and then raise visitors’ satisfaction.

Keywords: environmental cue, event, festival, satisfaction

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Authors: Arup K. Sarma, Jayshree Hazarika

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The North-eastern part of India, which receives heavier rainfall than other parts of the subcontinent, is of great concern now-a-days with regard to climate change. High intensity rainfall for short duration and longer dry spell, occurring due to impact of climate change, affects river morphology too. In the present study, an attempt is made to delineate the North-Eastern region of India into some homogeneous clusters based on the Fuzzy Clustering concept and to compare the resulting clusters obtained by using conventional methods and non conventional methods of clustering. The concept of clustering is adapted in view of the fact that, impact of climate change can be studied in a homogeneous region without much variation, which can be helpful in studies related to water resources planning and management. 10 IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) stations, situated in various regions of the North-east, have been selected for making the clusters. The results of the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) analysis show different clustering patterns for different conditions. From the analysis and comparison it can be concluded that non conventional method of using GCM data is somehow giving better results than the others. However, further analysis can be done by taking daily data instead of monthly means to reduce the effect of standardization.

Keywords: climate change, conventional and nonconventional methods of clustering, FCM analysis, homogeneous regions

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Authors: Alireza Abbassi Monjezi, Mohammad Hasan Shaheed

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Flood, caused by excessive rainfall, monsoon, cyclone and tsunami is a common disaster in many countries of the world especially sea connected low-lying countries. A stand-alone self-powered water filtration module for decontamination of floodwater has been designed and modeled. A combination forward osmosis – low pressure reverse osmosis (FO-LPRO) system powered by solar photovoltaic-thermal (PVT) energy is investigated which could overcome the main barriers to water supply for remote areas and ensure off-grid filtration. The proposed system is designed to be small scale and portable to provide on-site potable water to communities that are no longer themselves mobile nor can be reached quickly by the aid agencies. FO is an osmotically driven process that uses osmotic pressure gradients to drive water across a controlled pore membrane from a feed solution (low osmotic pressure) to a draw solution (high osmotic pressure). This drops the demand for high hydraulic pressures and therefore the energy demand. There is also a tendency for lower fouling, easier fouling layer removal and higher water recovery. In addition, the efficiency of the PVT unit will be maximized through freshwater cooling which is integrated into the system. A filtration module with the capacity of 5 m3/day is modeled to treat floodwater and provide drinking water. The module can be used as a tool for disaster relief, particularly in the aftermath of flood and tsunami events.

Keywords: flood resilience, membrane desalination, portable water treatment, solar energy

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Authors: Pawan Kumar, Dhananjoy Shaw, Manoj Kumar Rathi

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Purpose of the study were to compare between (a) frequencies among the four quartiles of percentile norms of autonomic variables from power events and (b) frequencies among the four quartiles percentile norms of autonomic variables from aerobic events of Indian sportspersons withdrawn from competitive games and sports in regard to number of samples falling in each quartile. The study was conducted on 430 males of 30 to 35 years of age. Based on the nature of game/sports the retired sportspersons were classified into power events (throwers, judo players, wrestlers, short distance swimmers, cricket fast bowlers and power lifters) and aerobic events (long distance runners, long distance swimmers, water polo players). Date was collected using ECG polygraphs. Data were processed and extracted using frequency domain analysis and time domain analysis. Collected data were computed with frequency, percentage of each quartile and finally the frequencies were compared with the chi square analysis. The finding pertaining to norm reference comparison of frequencies among the four quartiles of Indian sportspersons withdrawn from competitive games and sports from (a) power events suggests that frequency distribution in four quartile namely Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 are significantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDNN, Total Power (Absolute Power), HF (Absolute Power), LF (Normalized Power), HF (Normalized Power), LF/HF ratio, deep breathing test, expiratory respiratory ratio, valsalva manoeuvre, hand grip test, cold pressor test and lying to standing test, whereas, insignificantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDSD, RMSSD, SDANN, NN50 Count, pNN50 Count, LF (Absolute Power) and 30: 15 Ratio (b) aerobic events suggests that frequency distribution in four quartile are significantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDNN, LF (Normalized Power), HF (Normalized Power), LF/HF ratio, deep breathing test, expiratory respiratory ratio, hand grip test, cold pressor test, lying to standing test and 30: 15 ratio, whereas, insignificantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDSD, RMSSD. SDANN, NN50 count, pNN50 count, Total Power (Absolute Power), LF(Absolute Power) HF(Absolute Power), and valsalva manoeuvre. The study concluded that comparison of frequencies among the four quartiles of Indian retired sportspersons from power events and aerobic events are different in four quartiles in regard to selected autonomic functions, hence the developed percentile norms are not homogenously distributed across the percentile scale; hence strengthen the percentage distribution towards normal distribution.

Keywords: power, aerobic, absolute power, normalized power

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Authors: Luke McGowan, David Pickernell, Martini Battisti

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In this paper, Adversity Triggers were explored through the lens of Organisational Resilience. Adversity Triggers are contextualized by temporal factors, thus, naturally aligning to Resilience literature. Resilience has been chosen as the theoretical framework as risk management approaches are often not geared towards providing meaningful responses to high-impact, low-probability events. Adversity Triggers and Organisational Resilience both consider temporal factors which enabled investigation of each phase of recovery. A systematic literature was employed to assess previous literature and define further areas of research. The systematic literature review method was chosen to catalogue and identify gaps in current literature.

Keywords: adversity triggers, crisis, extreme events, organisational resilience, resilience

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Authors: Basma Khelfa, Antoine Tordeux, Ibrahima Ba

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We present a descriptive analysis data of lane-changing events in multi-lane roads. The data are provided from The Highway Drone Dataset (HighD), which are microscopic trajectories in highway. This paper describes and analyses the role of the different parameters and their significance. Thanks to HighD data, we aim to find the most frequent reasons that motivate drivers to change lanes. We used the programming language R for the processing of these data. We analyze the involvement and relationship of different variables of each parameter of the ego vehicle and the four vehicles surrounding it, i.e., distance, speed difference, time gap, and acceleration. This was studied according to the class of the vehicle (car or truck), and according to the maneuver it undertook (overtaking or falling back).

Keywords: autonomous driving, physical traffic model, prediction model, statistical learning process

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Authors: Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Joseph Ogutu, Hans-Peter Piepho

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We aim to model dynamics of wildlife or pastoral livestock population for understanding of their population change and hence for wildlife conservation and promoting human welfare. The study is motivated by an age-sex structured population counts in different regions of Serengeti-Mara during the period 1989-2003. Developing reliable and realistic models for population dynamics of large herbivore population can be a very complex and challenging exercise. However, the Bayesian statistical domain offers some flexible computational methods that enable the development and efficient implementation of complex population dynamics models. In this work, we have used a novel Bayesian state-space model to analyse the dynamics of topi and hartebeest populations in the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem of East Africa. The state-space model involves survival probabilities of the animals which further depend on various factors like monthly rainfall, size of habitat, etc. that cause recent declines in numbers of the herbivore populations and potentially threaten their future population viability in the ecosystem. Our study shows that seasonal rainfall is the most important factors shaping the population size of animals and indicates the age-class which most severely affected by any change in weather conditions.

Keywords: bayesian state-space model, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, population dynamics, conservation

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Authors: Domingos Viegas, Miguel Almeida, Carmen Rocha, Ilda Novo, Yolanda Luna

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Forest fires along the more than 1200km of the Spanish-Portuguese border are more and more frequent, currently achieving around 2000 fire events per year. Some of these events develop to large international wildfire requiring concerted operations based on shared information between the two countries. The fire event of Valencia de Alcantara (2003) causing several fatalities and more than 13000ha burnt, is a reference example of these international events. Currently, Portugal and Spain have a specific cross-border cooperation protocol on wildfires response for a strip of about 30km (15 km for each side). It is recognized by public authorities the successfulness of this collaboration however it is also assumed that this cooperation should include more functionalities such as the development of a common risk information system for transboundary fire events. Since Portuguese and Spanish authorities use different approaches to determine the fire risk indexes inputs and different methodologies to assess the fire risk, sometimes the conjoint firefighting operations are jeopardized since the information is not harmonized and the understanding of the situation by the civil protection agents from both countries is not unique. Thus, a methodology aiming the harmonization of the fire risk calculation and perception by Portuguese and Spanish Civil protection authorities is hereby presented. The final results are presented as well. The fire risk index used in this work is the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which is based on meteorological data. The FWI is limited on its application as it does not take into account other important factors with great effect on the fire appearance and development. The combination of these factors is very complex since, besides the meteorology, it addresses several parameters of different topics, namely: sociology, topography, vegetation and soil cover. Therefore, the meaning of FWI values is different from region to region, according the specific characteristics of each region. In this work, a methodology for FWI calibration based on the number of fire occurrences and on the burnt area in the transboundary regions of Portugal and Spain, in order to assess the fire risk based on calibrated FWI values, is proposed. As previously mentioned, the cooperative firefighting operations require a common perception of the information shared. Therefore, a common classification of the fire risk for the fire events occurred in the transboundary strip is proposed with the objective of harmonizing this type of information. This work is integrated in the ECHO project SpitFire - Spanish-Portuguese Meteorological Information System for Transboundary Operations in Forest Fires, which aims the development of a web platform for the sharing of information and supporting decision tools to be used in international fire events involving Portugal and Spain.

Keywords: data harmonization, FWI, international collaboration, transboundary wildfires

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Authors: Rui Teixeira, Alan O’Connor, Maria Nogal

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The statistical theory of extreme events is progressively a topic of growing interest in all the fields of science and engineering. The changes currently experienced by the world, economic and environmental, emphasized the importance of dealing with extreme occurrences with improved accuracy. When it comes to the design of offshore structures, particularly offshore wind turbines, the importance of efficiently characterizing extreme events is of major relevance. Extreme events are commonly characterized by extreme values theory. As an alternative, the accurate modeling of the tails of statistical distributions and the characterization of the low occurrence events can be achieved with the application of the Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) methodology. The POT methodology allows for a more refined fit of the statistical distribution by truncating the data with a minimum value of a predefined threshold u. For mathematically approximating the tail of the empirical statistical distribution the Generalised Pareto is widely used. Although, in the case of the exceedances of significant wave data (H_s) the 2 parameters Weibull and the Exponential distribution, which is a specific case of the Generalised Pareto distribution, are frequently used as an alternative. The Generalized Pareto, despite the existence of practical cases where it is applied, is not completely recognized as the adequate solution to model exceedances over a certain threshold u. References that set the Generalised Pareto distribution as a secondary solution in the case of significant wave data can be identified in the literature. In this framework, the current study intends to tackle the discussion of the application of statistical models to characterize exceedances of wave data. Comparison of the application of the Generalised Pareto, the 2 parameters Weibull and the Exponential distribution are presented for different values of the threshold u. Real wave data obtained in four buoys along the Irish coast was used in the comparative analysis. Results show that the application of the statistical distributions to characterize significant wave data needs to be addressed carefully and in each particular case one of the statistical models mentioned fits better the data than the others. Depending on the value of the threshold u different results are obtained. Other variables of the fit, as the number of points and the estimation of the model parameters, are analyzed and the respective conclusions were drawn. Some guidelines on the application of the POT method are presented. Modeling the tail of the distributions shows to be, for the present case, a highly non-linear task and, due to its growing importance, should be addressed carefully for an efficient estimation of very low occurrence events.

Keywords: extreme events, offshore structures, peak-over-threshold, significant wave data

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Authors: Rama Umesh Pandey, Jyoti Yadav

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Flooding is one of the waterborne disasters that causes extensive destruction in urban areas. Developing countries are at a higher risk of such damage and more than half of the global flooding events take place in Asian countries including India. Urban flooding is more of a human-induced disaster rather than natural. This is highly influenced by the anthropogenic factors, besides metrological and hydrological causes. Unplanned urbanization and poor management of cities enhance the impact manifold and cause huge loss of life and property in urban areas. It is an irony that urban areas have been facing water scarcity in summers and flooding during monsoon. This paper is an attempt to highlight the factors responsible for flooding in a city especially from an urban planning perspective and to suggest mitigating measures through spatial planning interventions. Analysis has been done in two stages; first is to assess the impacts of previous flooding events and second to analyze the factors responsible for flooding at macro and micro level in cities. Bhopal, a city in Central India having nearly two million population, has been selected for the study. The city has been experiencing flooding during heavy rains in monsoon. The factors responsible for urban flooding were identified through literature review as well as various case studies from different cities across the world and India. The factors thus identified were analyzed for both macro and micro level influences. For macro level, the previous flooding events that have caused huge destructions were analyzed and the most affected areas in Bhopal city were identified. Since the identified area was falling within the catchment of a drain so the catchment area was delineated for the study. The factors analyzed were: rainfall pattern to calculate the return period using Weibull’s formula; imperviousness through mapping in ArcGIS; runoff discharge by using Rational method. The catchment was divided into micro watersheds and the micro watershed having maximum impervious surfaces was selected to analyze the coverage and effect of physical infrastructure such as: storm water management; sewerage system; solid waste management practices. The area was further analyzed to assess the extent of violation of ‘building byelaws’ and ‘development control regulations’ and encroachment over the natural water streams. Through analysis, the study has revealed that the main issues have been: lack of sewerage system; inadequate storm water drains; inefficient solid waste management in the study area; violation of building byelaws through extending building structures ether on to the drain or on the road; encroachments by slum dwellers along or on to the drain reducing the width and capacity of the drain. Other factors include faulty culvert’s design resulting in back water effect. Roads are at higher level than the plinth of houses which creates submersion of their ground floors. The study recommends spatial planning interventions for mitigating urban flooding and strategies for management of excess rain water during monsoon season. Recommendations have also been made for efficient land use management to mitigate water logging in areas vulnerable to flooding.

Keywords: mitigating strategies, spatial planning interventions, urban flooding, violation of development control regulations

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Authors: Humraaz Kaja, Kofi Mensah, Frasia Oosthuizen

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Background and Aim: Vilazodone was approved in 2011 as an antidepressant to treat the major depressive disorder. As a relatively new drug, it is not clear if all adverse effects have been identified. The aim of this study was to review the adverse effects reported to the WHO Programme for International Drug Monitoring (PIDM) in order to add to the knowledge about the safety profile and adverse effects caused by vilazodone. Method: Data on adverse effects reported for vilazodone was obtained from the database VigiAccess managed by PIDM. Data was extracted from VigiAccess using Excel® and analyzed using descriptive statistics. The data collected was compared to the patient information leaflet (PIL) of Viibryd® and the FDA documents to determine adverse drug reactions reported post-marketing. Results: A total of 9708 adverse events had been recorded on VigiAccess, of which 6054 were not recorded on the PIL and the FDA approval document. Most of the reports were received from the Americas and were for adult women aged 45-64 years (24%, n=1059). The highest number of adverse events reported were for psychiatric events (19%; n=1889), followed by gastro-intestinal effects (18%; n=1839). Specific psychiatric disorders recorded included anxiety (316), depression (208), hallucination (168) and agitation (142). The systematic review confirmed several psychiatric adverse effects associated with the use of vilazodone. The findings of this study suggested that these common psychiatric adverse effects associated with the use of vilazodone were not known during the time of FDA approval of the drug and is not currently recorded in the patient information leaflet (PIL). Conclusions: In summary, this study found several adverse drug reactions not recorded in documents emanating from clinical trials pre-marketing. This highlights the importance of continued post-marketing surveillance of a drug, as well as the need for further studies on the psychiatric adverse events associated with vilazodone in order to improve the safety profile.

Keywords: adverse drug reactions, pharmacovigilance, post-marketing surveillance, vilazodone

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Authors: Okyu Kwon, Dongho Kang, Byungsik Kim, Seungkwon Jung

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We propose a technique to measure the impact of loss of traffic function in a particular area to surrounding areas. The proposed method is applied to the city of Seoul, which is the capital of South Korea, with a population of about ten million. Based on the actual road network in Seoul, we construct an abstract road network between 1kmx1km grid cells. The link weight of the abstract road network is re-adjusted considering traffic volume measured at several survey points. On the modified abstract road network, we evaluate the traffic vulnerability by calculating a network measure of betweenness centrality (BC) for every single grid cells. This study analyzes traffic impacts caused by road dysfunction due to heavy rainfall in urban areas. We could see the change of the BC value in all other grid cells by calculating the BC value once again when the specific grid cell lost its traffic function, that is, when the node disappeared on the grid-based road network. The results show that it is appropriate to use the sum of the BC variation of other cells as the influence index of each lattice cell on traffic. This research was supported by a grant (2017-MOIS31-004) from Fundamental Technology Development Program for Extreme Disaster Response funded by Korean Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS).

Keywords: vulnerability, road network, beweenness centrality, heavy rainfall, road impact

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Authors: Kazuhisa Koda, Tsutomu Kobayashi

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Laura Island, which is located about 50 km away from downtown, is a source of water supply in Majuro atoll, which is the capital of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Low and flat Majuro atoll has neither river nor lake. It is very important for Majuro atoll to ensure the conservation of its water resources. However, up-coning, which is the process of partial rising of the freshwater-saltwater boundary near the water-supply well, was caused by the excess pumping from it during the severe drought in 1998. Up-coning will make the water usage of the freshwater lens difficult. Thus, appropriate water usage is required to prevent up-coning in the freshwater lens because there is no other water source during drought. Numerical simulation of water usage applying SEAWAT model was conducted at the central part of Laura Island, including the water-supply well, which was affected by up-coning. The freshwater lens was created as a result of infiltration of consistent average rainfall. The lens shape was almost the same as the one in 1985. 0 of monthly rainfall and variable daily pump discharge were used to calculate the sustainable pump discharge from the water-supply well. Consequently, the total amount of pump discharge was increased as the daily pump discharge was increased, indicating that it needs more time to recover from up-coning. Thus, a pump standard to reduce the pump intensity is being proposed, which is based on numerical simulation concerning the occurrence of the up-coning phenomenon in Laura Island during the drought.

Keywords: freshwater lens, islands, numerical simulation, sustainable water use

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Authors: Stijn Horck

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Background: The value of lessons learned from failure increases when these insights can be put to use by those who did not experience the failure. While learning from others has mostly been researched between individuals or teams within the same environment, transferring knowledge from the person who experienced the failure to an outsider comes with extra challenges. As sense-making of failure is an individual process leading to different learning experiences, the potential of lessons learned from failure is highly variable depending on who is transferring the lessons learned. Using an integrated framework of linguistic aspects related to attributional egotism, this study aims to offer a complete explanation of the challenges in transferring lessons learned from failures that are experienced by others. Method: A case study of a failed foundation established to address the information needs for GPs in times of COVID-19 has been used. An overview of failure causes and lessons learned were made through a preliminary analysis of data collected in two phases with metaphoric examples of failure types. This was followed up by individual narrative interviews with the board members who have all experienced the same events to analyse the individual variance of lessons learned through discourse analysis. This research design uses the researcher-as-instrument approach since the recipient of these lessons learned is the author himself. Results: Thirteen causes were given why the foundation has failed, and nine lessons were formulated. Based on the individually emphasized events, the explanation of the failure events mentioned by all or three respondents consisted of more linguistic aspects related to attributional egotism than failure events mentioned by only one or two. Moreover, the learning events mentioned by all or three respondents involved lessons learned that are based on changed insight, while the lessons expressed by only one or two are more based on direct value. Retrospectively, the lessons expressed as a group in the first data collection phase seem to have captured some but not all of the direct value lessons. Conclusion: Individual variance in expressing lessons learned to outsiders can be reduced using metaphoric or analogical explanations from a third party. In line with the attributional egotism theory, individuals separated from a group that has experienced the same failure are more likely to refer to failure causes of which the chances to be contradicted are the smallest. Lastly, this study contributes to the academic literature by demonstrating that the use of linguistic analysis is suitable for investigating the knowledge transfer from lessons learned after failure.

Keywords: failure, discourse analysis, knowledge transfer, attributional egotism

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Authors: Kylie Mueller, Nijole Bernaitis, Shailendra Anoopkumar-Dukie

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Background: Vitamin K antagonists particularly warfarin is the most frequently used oral medication for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) treatment and prophylaxis. Time in therapeutic range (TITR) of the international normalised ratio (INR) is widely accepted as a measure to assess the quality of warfarin therapy. Multiple factors can affect warfarin control and the subsequent adverse outcomes including thromboembolic and bleeding events. Predictor models have been developed to assess potential contributing factors and measure the individual risk of these adverse events. These predictive models have been validated in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, however, there is a lack of literature on whether these can be successfully applied to other warfarin users including DVT patients. Therefore, the aim of the study was to assess the ability of these risk models (HAS BLED and CHADS2) to predict haemorrhagic and ischaemic incidences in DVT patients treated with warfarin. Methods: A retrospective analysis of DVT patients receiving warfarin management by a private pathology clinic was conducted. Data was collected from November 2007 to September 2014 and included demographics, medical and drug history, INR targets and test results. Patients receiving continuous warfarin therapy with an INR reference range between 2.0 and 3.0 were included in the study with mean TITR calculated using the Rosendaal method. Bleeding and thromboembolic events were recorded and reported as incidences per patient. The haemorrhagic risk model HAS BLED and ischaemic risk model CHADS2 were applied to the data. Patients were then stratified into either the low, moderate, or high-risk categories. The analysis was conducted to determine if a correlation existed between risk assessment tool and patient outcomes. Data was analysed using GraphPad Instat Version 3 with a p value of <0.05 considered to be statistically significant. Patient characteristics were reported as mean and standard deviation for continuous data and categorical data reported as number and percentage. Results: Of the 533 patients included in the study, there were 268 (50.2%) female and 265 (49.8%) male patients with a mean age of 62.5 years (±16.4). The overall mean TITR was 78.3% (±12.7) with an overall haemorrhagic incidence of 0.41 events per patient. For the HAS BLED model, there was a haemorrhagic incidence of 0.08, 0.53, and 0.54 per patient in the low, moderate and high-risk categories respectively showing a statistically significant increase in incidence with increasing risk category. The CHADS2 model showed an increase in ischaemic events according to risk category with no ischaemic events in the low category, and an ischaemic incidence of 0.03 in the moderate category and 0.47 high-risk categories. Conclusion: An increasing haemorrhagic incidence correlated to an increase in the HAS BLED risk score in DVT patients treated with warfarin. Furthermore, a greater incidence of ischaemic events occurred in patients with an increase in CHADS2 category. In an Australian population of DVT patients, the HAS BLED and CHADS2 accurately predicts incidences of haemorrhage and ischaemic events respectively.

Keywords: anticoagulant agent, deep vein thrombosis, risk assessment, warfarin

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Authors: Saeed Farhadypour, Majid Azadi, Habibolla Sayyari, Mahmood Mosavi, Shahram Irani, Aliakbar Bidokhti, Omid Alizadeh Choobari, Ziba Hamidi

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In the recent decades, frequencies of dust events have increased significantly in west and south west of Iran. First, a survey on the dust events during the period (1990-2013) is investigated using historical dust data collected at 6 weather stations scattered over west and south-west of Iran. After statistical analysis of the observational data, one of the most severe dust storm event that occurred in the region from 3rd to 6th July 2009, is selected and analyzed. WRF-Chem model is used to simulate the amount of PM10 and how to transport it to the areas. The initial and lateral boundary conditions for model obtained from GFS data with 0.5°×0.5° spatial resolution. In the simulation, two aerosol schemas (GOCART and MADE/SORGAM) with 3 options (chem_opt=106,300 and 303) were evaluated. Results of the statistical analysis of the historical data showed that south west of Iran has high frequency of dust events, so that Bushehr station has the highest frequency between stations and Urmia station has the lowest frequency. Also in the period of 1990 to 2013, the years 2009 and 1998 with the amounts of 3221 and 100 respectively had the highest and lowest dust events and according to the monthly variation, June and July had the highest frequency of dust events and December had the lowest frequency. Besides, model results showed that the MADE / SORGAM scheme has predicted values and trends of PM10 better than the other schemes and has showed the better performance in comparison with the observations. Finally, distribution of PM10 and the wind surface maps obtained from numerical modeling showed that the formation of dust plums formed in Iraq and Syria and also transportation of them to the West and Southwest of Iran. In addition, comparing the MODIS satellite image acquired on 4th July 2009 with model output at the same time showed the good ability of WRF-Chem in simulating spatial distribution of dust.

Keywords: dust storm, MADE/SORGAM scheme, PM10, WRF-Chem

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Milan Joshi, Harsh Agrawal, Pallaw Mishra, Sanand Sule

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Predicting electricity usage is a crucial aspect of organizing and controlling sustainable energy systems. The task of forecasting electricity load is intricate and requires a lot of effort due to the combined impact of social, economic, technical, environmental, and cultural factors on power consumption in communities. As a result, it is important to create strong models that can handle the significant non-linear and complex nature of the task. The objective of this study is to create and compare three machine learning techniques for predicting electricity load for both the day ahead and intraday, taking into account various factors such as meteorological data and social events including holidays and festivals. The proposed methods include a LightGBM, FBProphet, combination of FBProphet and LightGBM for day ahead and Motifs( Stumpy) based on Mueens algorithm for similarity search for intraday. We utilize these techniques to predict electricity usage during normal days and social events in the Himachal Region. We then assess their performance by measuring the MSE, RMSE, and MAPE values. The outcomes demonstrate that the combination of FBProphet and LightGBM method is the most accurate for day ahead and Motifs for intraday forecasting of electricity usage, surpassing other models in terms of MAPE, RMSE, and MSE. Moreover, the FBProphet - LightGBM approach proves to be highly effective in forecasting electricity load during social events, exhibiting precise day ahead predictions. In summary, our proposed electricity forecasting techniques display excellent performance in predicting electricity usage during normal days and special events in the Himachal Region.

Keywords: feature engineering, FBProphet, LightGBM, MASS, Motifs, MAPE

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang, Yi-Wen Chen

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Urban ecosystems are complex coupled human-environment systems. They contain abundant natural resources for producing natural assets and attract urban assets to consume natural resources for urban development. Urban ecosystems provide several ecosystem services, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services, and supporting services. Rapid global climate change makes urban ecosystems and their ecosystem services encountering various natural disasters. Lots of natural disasters have occurred around the world under the constant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the past two decades. In Taiwan, hydrological disasters have been paid more attention due to the potential high sensitivity of Taiwan’s cities to climate change, and it impacts. However, climate change not only causes extreme weather events directly but also affects the interactions among human, ecosystem services and their dynamic feedback processes indirectly. Therefore, this study adopts a systematic method, solar energy synthesis, based on the concept of the eco-energy analysis. The Taipei area, the most densely populated area in Taiwan, is selected as the study area. The changes of ecosystem services between 2015 and Typhoon Soudelor have been compared in order to investigate the impacts of extreme precipitation events on ecosystem services. The results show that the forest areas are the largest contributions of energy to ecosystem services in the Taipei area generally. Different soil textures of different subsystem have various upper limits of water contents or substances. The major contribution of ecosystem services of the study area is natural hazard regulation provided by the surface water resources areas. During the period of Typhoon Soudelor, the freshwater supply in the forest areas had become the main contribution. Erosion control services were the main ecosystem service affected by Typhoon Soudelor. The second and third main ecosystem services were hydrologic regulation and food supply. Due to the interactions among ecosystem services, fresh water supply, water purification, and waste treatment had been affected severely.

Keywords: ecosystem, extreme precipitation events, ecosystem services, solar energy synthesis

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Abdulmalik Altuwayjiri, Milad Pirhadi, Mohammed Kalafy, Badr Alharbi, Constantinos Sioutas

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In this study, we investigated the chemical and toxicological characteristics of PM10 in the metropolitan area of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. PM10 samples were collected on quartz and teflon filters during cold (December 2019–April 2020) and warm (May 2020–August 2020) seasons, including dust and non-dust events. The PM10 constituents were chemically analyzed for their metal, inorganic ions, and elemental and organic carbon (EC/OC) contents. Additionally, the PM10 oxidative potential was measured by means of the dithiothreitol (DTT) assay. Our findings revealed that the oxidative potential of the collected ambient PM10 samples was significantly higher than those measured in many urban areas worldwide. The oxidative potential of the collected ambient PM¹⁰⁻ samples was also higher during dust episodes compared to non-dust events, mainly due to higher concentrations of metals during these events. We performed Pearson correlation analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), and multi-linear regression (MLR) to identify the most significant sources contributing to the toxicity of PM¹⁰⁻ The results of the MLR analyses indicated that the major pollution sources contributing to the oxidative potential of ambient PM10 were soil and resuspended dust emissions (identified by Al, K, Fe, and Li) (31%), followed by secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation (traced by SO₄-² and NH+₄) (20%), and industrial activities (identified by Se and La) (19%), and traffic emissions (characterized by EC, Zn, and Cu) (17%). Results from this study underscore the impact of transported dust emissions on the oxidative potential of ambient PM10 in Riyadh and can be helpful in adopting appropriate public health policies regarding detrimental outcomes of exposure to PM₁₀-

Keywords: ambient PM10, oxidative potential, source apportionment, Riyadh, dust episodes

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Hisyam Hidayatullah

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This world events consciously or not realize everything has a pattern, until the events of the universe according to the Big Bang theory of the solar system which makes so regular in the rotation. The author would like to create a results curve area between the quadratic function y=kx2 and line y=ka2 using GeoGebra application version 4.2. This paper can provide a series that is no less interesting with Fourier series, so that will add new material about the series can be calculated with sigma notation. In addition, the ranks of the unique natural numbers of extensive changes in established areas. Finally, this paper provides analytical and geometric proof of the vast area in between the lines and curves that give the area is formed by y=ka2 dan kurva y=kx2, x-axis, line x=√a and x=-√a make a series of numbers for k=1 and a ∈ original numbers. ∑_(i=0)^n=(4n√n)/3=0+4/3+(8√2)/3+4√3+⋯+(4n√n)/3. The author calls the series “H154M”.

Keywords: sequence, series, sigma notation, application GeoGebra

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: Hasan Topacoglu

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The Meiji Restoration was a chain of events that restored Japan in 1868 and considered as the beginning of Japanese Modernization by many scholars. In 1968, to honor its modern incarnation, Japan celebrated Meiji Centennial as one of the biggest Media Events in the country after the World War II. It was celebrated all around the country throughout the year following with a central event in Tokyo. Meanwhile, Japanese scholars started an opposition movement and claimed that Government was using this event to raise nationalism, pointing at Government’s statement on the meaning of Meiji. Most of the scholars, unfortunately, were hooked into the ideological problem of the Government’s way of planning and evaluated it as a failure. However, scholars missed out an important point that apart from the central event in Tokyo, each city planned its own event and celebrated it on a different date, also with a different theme. For example, Kyoto showed a regional characteristic and focused on Kyoto’s own culture, tradition etc., and highlighted a further past than 100 years. This was mainly because some areas/cities had a different ‘memory’ for Meiji Restoration than Tokyo which was reflected through the way they celebrated Meiji Centennial. On the other hand, 2023 will be the year of Turkish Republic Centennial. A year which will be marked by national and maybe even international events. Although an official committee has not been announced yet, The 2023 Vision, a list of goals has been released by the Government to coincide with the centenary of the Republic of Turkey in 2023 and there are some ongoing projects that are planned to be completed by then. By looking at the content of these projects, it is possible to say that Government is aiming to focus on Modernization through the Centennial. However, some of the projects are already showing some interesting characteristics such as the Istanbul New Airport whose design is inspired by Selimiye Mosque’s Islamic-Ottoman figure. It is true that Turkey and Japan have different historical backgrounds and the timeline of the Meiji Restoration and Foundation of Turkish Republic are different. Therefore, a particular comparison between these two events is not justified. However, they may have more in common than we are up to think because, each country marked the start of a new nation conceived on modern principles. For that reason, it is important to understand the similarities or differences between Meiji Centennial and Turkish Republic Centennial as a media event. This study introduces Meiji Centennial as a media event and analyses opposition movement along with the meaning of Meiji Centennial. Additionally, it explains regional characteristic differences and gives Kyoto as an example. Moreover, it introduces some of the ongoing Centennial projects in Turkey and analyses the meaning of the Turkish Republic Centennial through these projects. Without comparing Japan and Turkey, it explains the case of Japan but the discussion centers on deepening our understanding of Centennial as a Media Event and remarks some important aspects for Turkey’s upcoming Centennial events.

Keywords: media events, Meiji centennial, the 2023 vision, Turkish republic centennial

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Jill Stephenson, Marie Vaganay, Robert Cameron, Caoimhe McGurk, Neil Hewitt

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Purpose: The key aim of the research was to identify the secondary stressors experienced by businesses affected by single or repeated flooding and to determine to what extent businesses were affected by these stressors, along with any resulting impact on health. Additionally, the research aimed to establish the likelihood of businesses being re-exposed to the secondary stressors through assessing awareness of flood risk, implementation of property protection measures and level of community resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The chosen research method involved the distribution of a questionnaire survey to businesses affected by either single or repeated flood events. The questionnaire included the Impact of Event Scale (a 15-item self-report measure which assesses subjective distress caused by traumatic events). Findings: 55 completed questionnaires were returned by flood impacted businesses. 89% of the businesses had sustained internal flooding while 11% had experienced external flooding. The results established that the key secondary stressors experienced by businesses, in order of priority, were: flood damage, fear of reoccurring flooding, prevention of access to the premise/closure, loss of income, repair works, length of closure and insurance issues. There was a lack of preparedness for potential future floods and consequent vulnerability to the emergence of secondary stressors among flood affected businesses, as flood resistance or flood resilience measures had only been implemented by 11% and 13% respectively. In relation to the psychological repercussions, the Impact of Event scores suggested that potential prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was noted among 8 out of 55 respondents (l5%). Originality/value: The results improve understanding of the enduring repercussions of flood events on businesses, indicating that not only residents may be susceptible to the detrimental health impacts of flood events and single flood events may be just as likely as reoccurring flooding to contribute to ongoing stress. Lack of financial resources is a possible explanation for the lack of implementation of property protection measures among businesses, despite 49% experiencing flooding on multiple occasions. Therefore it is recommended that policymakers should consider potential sources of financial support or grants towards flood defences for flood impacted businesses. Any form of assistance should be made available to businesses at the earliest opportunity as there was no significant association between the time of the last flood event and the likelihood of experiencing PTSD symptoms.

Keywords: flood event, flood resilience, flood resistance, PTSD, secondary stressors

Procedia PDF Downloads 407

Authors: Jawid Ahmad Baktash, Tadashi Shiroma, Tomokazu Nagata, Yuji Taniguchi, Morikazu Nakamura

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The goal of this paper is to explore the use of formal methods for Dynamic Routing, The purpose of network communication with dynamic routing is sending a massage from one node to others by using pacific protocols. In dynamic routing connections are possible based on protocols of Distance vector (Routing Information Protocol, Border Gateway protocol), Link State (Open Shortest Path First, Intermediate system Intermediate System), Hybrid (Enhanced Interior Gateway Routing Protocol). The responsibility for proper verification becomes crucial with Dynamic Routing. Formal methods can play an essential role in the Routing, development of Networks and testing of distributed systems. Event-B is a formal technique consists of describing rigorously the problem; introduce solutions or details in the refinement steps to obtain more concrete specification, and verifying that proposed solutions are correct. The system is modeled in terms of an abstract state space using variables with set theoretic types and the events that modify state variables. Event-B is a variant of B, was designed for developing distributed systems. In Event-B, the events consist of guarded actions occurring spontaneously rather than being invoked. The invariant state properties must be satisfied by the variables and maintained by the activation of the events.

Keywords: dynamic rout RIP, formal method, event-B, pro-B

Procedia PDF Downloads 383

Authors: Ihejirika Chinedu Emeka, Njoku John Didacus, Obenade Moses

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This study was aimed at determining the impact of meteorological events (seasonal variations) and sand excavation activities on turbidity and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) of Imo River, Southeastern Nigeria. In-situ measurements of the parameters were carried out at the peaks of two consecutive seasons–dry and rainy season at seven major points of sand excavation along the river, under standard analytical methods. There were significant variations in seasons (P<0.05) for turbidity and TSS at all locations. The average turbidity concentration of locations were 36.71 NTU, during the rainy season, and 17 NTU in a dry season, while the average TSS concentration were 27.14 mg/L, during the rainy season, and 8.86mg/L in a dry season. Turbidity correlated positively (strongly) with TSS (r=0.956) at R–Square=0.91. Turbidity and TSS values were higher during the rainy season than the dry season. Turbidity increased when Total Suspended Solids increased. Sand excavation increased turbidity and TSS values of Imo River. The river had moderate water quality during the rainy season and unimpaired water quality during a dry season. The river was not very clear in both seasons, but clearer in a dry season than in rainy season. The increase in turbidity and TSS can lead to the destruction of aquatic biodiversity and stagnation of ecosystem processes. Exposure of aquatic animals to the recorded turbidity level in a rainy season can lead to stress.

Keywords: biodiversity destruction, meteorological events, pollution, sand excavation

Procedia PDF Downloads 475

Authors: Godfrey Nsereko, Daniel Kadobera, Denis Okethwangu, Joyce Nguna, Alex Riolexus Ario

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Background: Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Uganda. In April 2018, malaria cases surged in Nwoya District, northern Uganda, exceeding the action thresholds. We investigated to assess the outbreak’s magnitude, identify transmission risk factors, and recommend evidence-based control measures. Methods: We defined a malaria case as onset of fever in a resident of Nwoya District with a positive Rapid Diagnostic Test or microscopy for malaria P. falciparum from 1 February to 22 May 2018. We reviewed medical records in all health facilities of affected sub-counties to find cases. In a case-control study, we compared exposure risk factors between 107 case-persons and 107 asymptomatic controls matched by age and village. We conducted entomological assessment on vector-density and behavior. Results: We identified 3,879 case-persons (attack rate [AR]=6.5%) and 2 deaths (case-fatality rate=5.2/10,000). Females (AR=8.1%) were more affected than males (AR=4.7%). Of all age groups, the 5-18 year age group (AR=8.4%) was most affected. Heavy rain started on 4 March; a propagated outbreak began during the week of 2 April. In the case-control study, 55% (59/107) of case-patients and 18% (19/107) of controls had stagnant water around households for several days following rainfall (ORM-H=5.6, 95%CI=3.0-11); 25% (27/107) of case-patients and 51% (55/107) of controls wore long-sleeve cloths during evening hours (ORM-H=0.30, 95%CI=0.20-0.60); 29% (31/107) of case-patients and 15% (16/107) of controls did not sleep under a long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) (ORM-H=2.3, 95%CI=1.1-4.9); 37% (40/107) of case-patients and 52% (56/107) of controls had ≥1 LLIN per 2 household members (ORM-H=0.54, 95%CI=0.30-0.97). Entomological assessment indicated active breeding sites; Anopheles gambiae sensu lato species were the predominant vector. Conclusion: Increased vector breeding sites after heavy rainfall, together with inadequate malaria preventive measures caused this outbreak. We recommended increasing coverage for LLINs and larviciding breeding sites.

Keywords: malaria outbreak, Plasmodium falciparum, global health security, Uganda

Procedia PDF Downloads 203

Authors: Michele Sinico

Abstract:

The psychological present has an actual extension. When a sequence of instantaneous stimuli falls in this short interval of time, observers perceive a compresence of events in succession and the temporal order depends on the qualitative relationships between the perceptual properties of the events. Two experiments were carried out to study the influence of perceptual grouping, with and without temporal displacement, on the duration of auditory sequences. The psychophysical method of adjustment was adopted. The first experiment investigated the effect of temporal displacement of a white noise on sequence duration. The second experiment investigated the effect of temporal displacement, along the pitch dimension, on temporal shortening of sequence. The results suggest that the temporal order of sounds, in the case of temporal displacement, is organized along the pitch dimension.

Keywords: time perception, perceptual present, temporal displacement, Gestalt laws of perceptual organization

Procedia PDF Downloads 228