Search results for: land-use change
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6767

Search results for: land-use change

6407 Determining the Spatial Vulnerability Levels and Typologies of Coastal Cities to Climate Change: Case of Turkey

Authors: Mediha B. Sılaydın Aydın, Emine D. Kahraman

Abstract:

One of the important impacts of climate change is the sea level rise. Turkey is a peninsula, so the coastal areas of the country are threatened by the problem of sea level rise. Therefore, the urbanized coastal areas are highly vulnerable to climate change. At the aim of enhancing spatial resilience of urbanized areas, this question arises: What should be the priority intervention subject in the urban planning process for a given city. To answer this question, by focusing on the problem of sea level rise, this study aims to determine spatial vulnerability typologies and levels of Turkey coastal cities based on morphological, physical and social characteristics. As a method, spatial vulnerability of coastal cities is determined by two steps as level and type. Firstly, physical structure, morphological structure and social structure were examined in determining spatial vulnerability levels. By determining these levels, most vulnerable areas were revealed as a priority in adaptation studies. Secondly, all parameters are also used to determine spatial typologies. Typologies are determined for coastal cities in order to use as a base for urban planning studies. Adaptation to climate change is crucial for developing countries like Turkey so, this methodology and created typologies could be a guide for urban planners as spatial directors and an example for other developing countries in the context of adaptation to climate change. The results demonstrate that the urban settlements located on the coasts of the Marmara Sea, the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean respectively, are more vulnerable than the cities located on the Black Sea’s coasts to sea level rise.

Keywords: climate change, coastal cities, vulnerability, urban land use planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 287
6406 The Application of International Law in Terms of Earthlife Africa Johannesburg and Another v Minister of Energy and Others 65662/16 (2017) Case

Authors: M. van der Bank

Abstract:

This study involves a legal analysis of the case Earthlife Africa Johannesburg v Minister of Environmental Affairs and Others. The case considered the impact of the Thabametsi Power Project if it operated to the expected year 2060 on the global climate and ever-changing climate, in South Africa. This judgment highlights the significance, place and principles of climate change and where climate change impacts the South African environmental law which has its founding principles in the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996. This paper seeks to examine the advances for climate change regulation and application in terms of international law, in South Africa, through a qualitative study involving comparative national and international case law. A literature review study was conducted to compare and contrast the various aspects of law in order to support the argument undertaken. The paper presents a detailed discussion of the current legislation and the position as it currently stands with reference to international law and interpretation. The relevant protections as outlined in the National Environmental Management Act will be discussed. It then proceeds to outline the potential liability of the Minister in the interpretation and application of international law.

Keywords: climate change; environment, environmental review, international law; and principles

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6405 Community Perception of Dynamics and Drivers of Land Cover Change around Pendjari Biosphere Reserve in Northern Benin

Authors: Jesugnon E. A. Kpodo, Aurlus D. Ouindeyama, Jan H. Sommer, Fifanou G. Vodouhe, Kolo Yeo

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Local communities are recognized as key actors for sustainable land use and to some extent actors driving land use land cover (LULC) change around protected areas. Understanding drivers responsible for these changes are very crucial for better policy decisions making. This study analyzed perception of 425 local people in 28 villages towards land cover change around Pendjari Biosphere Reserve using semi-structured questionnaire. 72.9% of local communities perceive land cover as degrading while 24.5% as improving and only 2.6% as stable during the five last years. Women perceived more land cover degradation than men do (84.1 vs. 67.1%). Local communities identified cultivated land expansion, logging, firewood collection, charcoal production, population growth, and poverty as the key drivers of declined LULC in the study area. Education has emerged as a significant factor influencing respondents’ perceptions of these drivers of LULC changes. Appropriate management measures and government policies should be implemented around Pendjari Biosphere Reserve to control drivers of LULC change.

Keywords: local perceptions, LULC drivers, LULC dynamics, Pendjari Biosphere Reserve, rural livelihoods, sustainable resource management

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6404 Exploring Tree Growth Variables Influencing Carbon Sequestration in the Face of Climate Change

Authors: Funmilayo Sarah Eguakun, Peter Oluremi Adesoye

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One of the major problems being faced by human society is that the global temperature is believed to be rising due to human activity that releases carbon IV oxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. Carbon IV oxide is the most important greenhouse gas influencing global warming and possible climate change. With climate change becoming alarming, reducing CO2 in our atmosphere has become a primary goal of international efforts. Forest landsare major sink and could absorb large quantities of carbon if the trees are judiciously managed. The study aims at estimating the carbon sequestration capacity of Pinus caribaea (pine)and Tectona grandis (Teak) under the prevailing environmental conditions and exploring tree growth variables that influencesthe carbon sequestration capacity in Omo Forest Reserve, Ogun State, Nigeria. Improving forest management by manipulating growth characteristics that influences carbon sequestration could be an adaptive strategy of forestry to climate change. Random sampling was used to select Temporary Sample Plots (TSPs) in the study area from where complete enumeration of growth variables was carried out within the plots. The data collected were subjected to descriptive and correlational analyses. The results showed that average carbon stored by Pine and Teak are 994.4±188.3 Kg and 1350.7±180.6 Kg respectively. The difference in carbon stored in the species is significant enough to consider choice of species relevant in climate change adaptation strategy. Tree growth variables influence the capacity of the tree to sequester carbon. Height, diameter, volume, wood density and age are positively correlated to carbon sequestration. These tree growth variables could be manipulated by the forest manager as an adaptive strategy for climate change while plantations of high wood density speciescould be relevant for management strategy to increase carbon storage.

Keywords: adaptation, carbon sequestration, climate change, growth variables, wood density

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6403 Climate Change Law and Transnational Corporations

Authors: Manuel Jose Oyson

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned in its most recent report for the entire world “to both mitigate and adapt to climate change if it is to effectively avoid harmful climate impacts.” The IPCC observed “with high confidence” a more rapid rise in total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) emissions from 2000 to 2010 than in the past three decades that “were the highest in human history”, which if left unchecked will entail a continuing process of global warming and can alter the climate system. Current efforts, however, to respond to the threat of global warming, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, have focused on states, and fail to involve Transnational Corporations (TNCs) which are responsible for a vast amount of GHG emissions. Involving TNCs in the search for solutions to climate change is consistent with an acknowledgment by contemporary international law that there is an international role for other international persons, including TNCs, and departs from the traditional “state-centric” response to climate change. Putting the focus of GHG emissions away from states recognises that the activities of TNCs “are not bound by national borders” and that the international movement of goods meets the needs of consumers worldwide. Although there is no legally-binding instrument that covers TNC activities or legal responsibilities generally, TNCs have increasingly been made legally responsible under international law for violations of human rights, exploitation of workers and environmental damage, but not for climate change damage. Imposing on TNCs a legally-binding obligation to reduce their GHG emissions or a legal liability for climate change damage is arguably formidable and unlikely in the absence a recognisable source of obligation in international law or municipal law. Instead a recourse to “soft law” and non-legally binding instruments may be a way forward for TNCs to reduce their GHG emissions and help in addressing climate change. Positive effects have been noted by various studies to voluntary approaches. TNCs have also in recent decades voluntarily committed to “soft law” international agreements. This development reflects a growing recognition among corporations in general and TNCs in particular of their corporate social responsibility (CSR). While CSR used to be the domain of “small, offbeat companies”, it has now become part of mainstream organization. The paper argues that TNCs must voluntarily commit to reducing their GHG emissions and helping address climate change as part of their CSR. One, as a serious “global commons problem”, climate change requires international cooperation from multiple actors, including TNCs. Two, TNCs are not innocent bystanders but are responsible for a large part of GHG emissions across their vast global operations. Three, TNCs have the capability to help solve the problem of climate change. Assuming arguendo that TNCs did not strongly contribute to the problem of climate change, society would have valid expectations for them to use their capabilities, knowledge-base and advanced technologies to help address the problem. It would seem unthinkable for TNCs to do nothing while the global environment fractures.

Keywords: climate change law, corporate social responsibility, greenhouse gas emissions, transnational corporations

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6402 Effect of Gamma Radiation on Bromophenol Blue Dyed Films as Dosimeter

Authors: Priyanka R. Oberoi, Chandra B. Maurya, Prakash A. Mahanwar

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Ionizing radiation can cause a drastic change in the physical and chemical properties of the material exposed. Numerous medical devices are sterilized by ionizing radiation. In the current research paper, an attempt was made to develop precise and inexpensive polymeric film dosimeter which can be used for controlling radiation dosage. Polymeric film containing (pH sensitive dye) indicator dye Bromophenol blue (BPB) was casted to check the effect of Gamma radiation on its optical and physical properties. The film was exposed to gamma radiation at 4 kGy/hr in the range of 0 to 300 kGy at an interval of 50 kGy. Release of vinyl acetate from an emulsion on high radiation reacts with the BPB fading the color of the film from blue to light blue and then finally colorless, indicating a change in pH from basic to acidic form. The change was characterized by using CIE l*a*b*, ultra-violet spectroscopy and FT-IR respectively.

Keywords: bromophenol blue, dosimeter, gamma radiation, polymer

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6401 Farmers’ Perception and Response to Climate Change Across Agro-ecological Zones in Conflict-Ridden Communities in Cameroon

Authors: Lotsmart Fonjong

Abstract:

The livelihood of rural communities in the West African state of Cameroon, which is largely dictated by natural forces (rainfall, temperatures, and soil), is today threatened by climate change and armed conflict. This paper investigates the extent to which rural communities are aware of climate change, how their perceptions of changes across different agro-ecological zones have impacted farming practices, output, and lifestyles, on the one hand, and the extent to which local armed conflicts are confounding their efforts and adaptation abilities. The paper is based on a survey conducted among small farmers in selected localities within the forest and savanna ecological zones of the conflict-ridden Northwest and Southwest Cameroon. Attention is paid to farmers’ gender, scale, and type of farming. Farmers’ perception of/and response to climate change are analysed alongside local rainfall and temperature data and mobilization for climate justice. Findings highlight the fact that farmers’ perception generally corroborates local climatic data. Climatic instability has negatively affected farmers’ output, food prices, standards of living, and food security. However, the vulnerability of the population varies across ecological zones, gender, and crop types. While these factors also account for differences in local response and adaptation to climate change, ongoing armed conflicts in these regions have further complicated opportunities for climate-driven agricultural innovations, inputs, and exchange of information among farmers. This situation underlines how poor communities, as victims, are forced into many complex problems outsider their making. It is therefore important to mainstream farmers’ perceptions and differences into policy strategies that consider both climate change and Anglophone conflict as national security concerns foe sustainable development in Cameroon.

Keywords: adaptation policies, climate change, conflict, small farmers, cameroon

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6400 Prioritizing Biodiversity Conservation Areas based on the Vulnerability and the Irreplaceability Framework in Mexico

Authors: Alma Mendoza-Ponce, Rogelio Corona-Núñez, Florian Kraxner

Abstract:

Mexico is a megadiverse country and it has nearly halved its natural vegetation in the last century due to agricultural and livestock expansion. Impacts of land use cover change and climate change are unevenly distributed and spatial prioritization to minimize the affectations on biodiversity is crucial. Global and national efforts for prioritizing biodiversity conservation show that ~33% to 45% of Mexico should be protected. The width of these targets makes difficult to lead resources. We use a framework based on vulnerability and irreplaceability to prioritize conservation efforts in Mexico. Vulnerability considered exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity under two scenarios (business as usual, BAU based, on the SSP2 and RCP 4.5 and a Green scenario, based on the SSP1 and the RCP 2.6). Exposure to land use is the magnitude of change from natural vegetation to anthropogenic covers while exposure to climate change is the difference between current and future values for both scenarios. Sensitivity was considered as the number of endemic species of terrestrial vertebrates which are critically endangered and endangered. Adaptive capacity is used as the ration between the percentage of converted area (natural to anthropogenic) and the percentage of protected area at municipality level. The results suggest that by 2050, between 11.6 and 13.9% of Mexico show vulnerability ≥ 50%, and by 2070, between 12.0 and 14.8%, in the Green and BAU scenario, respectively. From an ecosystem perspective cloud forests, followed by tropical dry forests, natural grasslands and temperate forests will be the most vulnerable (≥ 50%). Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates; 62% of the endemic amphibians are critically endangered or endangered while 39%, 12% and 9% of the mammals, birds, and reptiles, respectively. However, the distribution of these amphibians counts for only 3.3% of the country, while mammals, birds, and reptiles in these categories represent 10%, 16% and 29% of Mexico. There are 5 municipalities out of the 2,457 that Mexico has that represent 31% of the most vulnerable areas (70%).These municipalities account for 0.05% of Mexico. This multiscale approach can be used to address resources to conservation targets as ecosystems, municipalities or species considering land use cover change, climate change and biodiversity uniqueness.

Keywords: biodiversity, climate change, land use change, Mexico, vulnerability

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6399 Hydro-Sedimentological Evaluation in Itajurú Channel–Araruama Lagoon-Rj, Due Superelevation of the Sea Level by Climate Change

Authors: Paulo José Sigaúque, Paulo Rosman

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The Itajurú channel, located in the Eastern side of the Araruama lagoon, Rio de Janeiro state, is the one who makes the connection between Araruama lagoon and the sea. It is important to understand the hydrodynamic circulation of the location and effects of the sedimentological processes, and also estimate of the hydrodynamic and sedimentological processes in the future after the sea level change due to effects of climate change. This work presents results of a study about sediments dynamics in the Araruama lagoon focusing on the Itajurú channel region considering the present mean sea level and a foreseen sea level rise of 0.5 meters due to climate changes. The study was conducted with the aid of computer modeling for hydrodynamic and morphodynamic in SisBaHiA®. The results indicate that Araruama lagoon is composed by two hydrodynamics compartments; one is dominated by the action of the tide between the entrance of the channel and the strait of Perynas, and another one by the action of wind in narrow region between strait of Perynas and western extreme of the lagoon. With sea level rise, the magnitude of current velocities and flow rates is increased and consequently flow of sediment transport from upstream to downstream of Itajurú channel is increased and has more effect in the bridge Feliciano Sodré.

Keywords: hydrodinamic, superelevation, sea level, climate change

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6398 Role of Indigenous Peoples in Climate Change

Authors: Neelam Kadyan, Pratima Ranga, Yogender

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Indigenous people are the One who are affected by the climate change the most, although there have contributed little to its causes. This is largely a result of their historic dependence on local biological diversity, ecosystem services and cultural landscapes as a source of their sustenance and well-being. Comprising only four percent of the world’s population they utilize 22 percent of the world’s land surface. Despite their high exposure-sensitivity indigenous peoples and local communities are actively responding to changing climatic conditions and have demonstrated their resourcefulness and resilience in the face of climate change. Traditional Indigenous territories encompass up to 22 percent of the world’s land surface and they coincide with areas that hold 80 percent of the planet’s biodiversity. Also, the greatest diversity of indigenous groups coincides with the world’s largest tropical forest wilderness areas in the Americas (including Amazon), Africa, and Asia, and 11 percent of world forest lands are legally owned by Indigenous Peoples and communities. This convergence of biodiversity-significant areas and indigenous territories presents an enormous opportunity to expand efforts to conserve biodiversity beyond parks, which tend to benefit from most of the funding for biodiversity conservation. Tapping on Ancestral Knowledge Indigenous Peoples are carriers of ancestral knowledge and wisdom about this biodiversity. Their effective participation in biodiversity conservation programs as experts in protecting and managing biodiversity and natural resources would result in more comprehensive and cost effective conservation and management of biodiversity worldwide. Addressing the Climate Change Agenda Indigenous Peoples has played a key role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The territories of indigenous groups who have been given the rights to their lands have been better conserved than the adjacent lands (i.e., Brazil, Colombia, Nicaragua, etc.). Preserving large extensions of forests would not only support the climate change objectives, but it would respect the rights of Indigenous Peoples and conserve biodiversity as well. A climate change agenda fully involving Indigenous Peoples has many more benefits than if only government and/or the private sector are involved. Indigenous peoples are some of the most vulnerable groups to the negative effects of climate change. Also, they are a source of knowledge to the many solutions that will be needed to avoid or ameliorate those effects. For example, ancestral territories often provide excellent examples of a landscape design that can resist the negatives effects of climate change. Over the millennia, Indigenous Peoples have developed adaptation models to climate change. They have also developed genetic varieties of medicinal and useful plants and animal breeds with a wider natural range of resistance to climatic and ecological variability.

Keywords: ancestral knowledge, cost effective conservation, management, indigenous peoples, climate change

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6397 The impact of Climate Change and Land use/land Cover Change (LUCC) on Carbon Storage in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of China

Authors: Xia Fang

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Arid and semiarid areas of China (ASAC) have experienced significant land-use/cover changes (LUCC), along with intensified climate change. However, LUCC and climate changes and their individual and interactive effects on carbon stocks have not yet been fully understood in the ASAC. This study analyses the carbon stocks in the ASAC during 1980 - 2020 using the specific arid ecosystem model (AEM), and investigates the effects of LUCC and climate change on carbon stock trends. The results indicate that in the past 41 years, the ASAC carbon pool experienced an overall growth trend, with an increase of 182.03 g C/m2. Climatic factors (+291.99 g C/m2), especially the increase in precipitation, were the main drivers of the carbon pool increase. LUCC decreased the carbon pool (-112.27 g C/m2), mainly due to the decrease in grassland area (-2.77%). The climate-induced carbon sinks were distributed in northern Xinjiang, on the Ordos Plateau, and in Northeast China, while the LUCC-induced carbon sinks mainly occurred on the Ordos Plateau and the North China Plain, resulting in a net decrease in carbon sequestration in these regions according to carbon pool measurements. The study revealed that the combination of climate variability, LUCC, and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration resulted in an increase of approximately 182.03 g C/m2, which was mainly distributed in eastern Inner Mongolia and the western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our findings are essential for improving theoretical guidance to protect the ecological environment, rationally plan land use, and understand the sustainable development of arid and semiarid zones.

Keywords: AEM, climate change, LUCC, carbon stocks

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6396 Collocation Assessment between GEO and GSO Satellites

Authors: A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

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The change in orbit evolution between collocated satellites (X, Y) inside +/-0.09 ° E/W and +/- 0.07 ° N/S cluster, after one of these satellites is placed in an inclined orbit (satellite X) and the effect of this change in the collocation safety inside the cluster window has been studied and evaluated. Several collocation scenarios had been studied in order to adjust the location of both satellites inside their cluster to maximize the separation between them and safe the mission.

Keywords: satellite, GEO, collocation, risk assessment

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6395 Climate Change and Health: Scoping Review of Scientific Literature 1990-2015

Authors: Niamh Herlihy, Helen Fischer, Rainer Sauerborn, Anneliese Depoux, Avner Bar-Hen, Antoine Flauhault, Stefanie Schütte

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In the recent decades, there has been an increase in the number of publications both in the scientific and grey literature on the potential health risks associated with climate change. Though interest in climate change and health is growing, there are still many gaps to adequately assess our future health needs in a warmer world. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be a key step in inciting the changes necessary to decelerate global warming and to target new strategies to mitigate the consequences on health systems. A long term and broad overview of existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. We conducted a scoping review of published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health from two large databases, PubMed and Web of Science, between 1990 and 2015. A scoping review allowed for a broad analysis of this complex topic on a meta-level as opposed to a thematically refined literature review. A detailed search strategy including specific climate and health terminology was used to search the two databases. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied in order to capture the most relevant literature on the human health impact of climate change within the chosen timeframe. Two reviewers screened the papers independently and any differences arising were resolved by a third party. Data was extracted, categorized and coded both manually and using R software. Analytics and infographics were developed from results. There were 7269 articles identified between the two databases following the removal of duplicates. After screening of the articles by both reviewers 3751 were included. As expected, preliminary results indicate that the number of publications on the topic has increased over time. Geographically, the majority of publications address the impact of climate change and health in Europe and North America, This is particularly alarming given that countries in the Global South will bear the greatest health burden. Concerning health outcomes, infectious diseases, particularly dengue fever and other mosquito transmitted infections are the most frequently cited. We highlight research gaps in certain areas e.g climate migration and mental health issues. We are developing a database of the identified climate change and health publications and are compiling a report for publication and dissemination of the findings. As health is a major co-beneficiary to climate change mitigation strategies, our results may serve as a useful source of information for research funders and investors when considering future research needs as well as the cost-effectiveness of climate change strategies. This study is part of an interdisciplinary project called 4CHealth that confronts results of the research done on scientific, political and press literature to better understand how the knowledge on climate change and health circulates within those different fields and whether and how it is translated to real world change.

Keywords: climate change, health, review, mapping

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6394 Efficacy of Conservation Strategies for Endangered Garcinia gummi gutta under Climate Change in Western Ghats

Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

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Climate change is continuously affecting the ecosystem, species distribution as well as global biodiversity. The assessment of the species potential distribution and the spatial changes under various climate change scenarios is a significant step towards the conservation and mitigation of habitat shifts, and species' loss and vulnerability. In this context, the present study aimed to predict the influence of current and future climate on an ecologically vulnerable medicinal species, Garcinia gummi-gutta, of the southern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. The future projections were made for the period of 2050 and 2070 with RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario of 4.5 and 8.5 using 84 species occurrence data, and climatic variables from three different models of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment. Climatic variables contributions were assessed using jackknife test and AOC value 0.888 indicates the model perform with high accuracy. The major influencing variables will be annual precipitation, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest quarter. The model result shows that the current high potential distribution of the species is around 1.90% of the study area, 7.78% is good potential; about 90.32% is moderate to very low potential for species suitability. Finally, the results of all model represented that there will be a drastic decline in the suitable habitat distribution by 2050 and 2070 for all the RCP scenarios. The study signifies that MaxEnt model might be an efficient tool for ecosystem management, biodiversity protection, and species re-habitation planning under climate change.

Keywords: Garcinia gummi gutta, maximum entropy modeling, medicinal plants, climate change, western ghats, MaxEnt

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6393 Entrepreneurial Leadership in a Startup Context: A Comparative Study on Two Egyptian Startup Businesses

Authors: Nada Basset

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Problem Statement: The study examines the important role of leading change inside start-ups and highlights the challenges faced by an entrepreneur during the startup phase of the business. Research Methods/Procedures/Approaches: A qualitative research approach is taken, using the case study analysis method. A comparative study was made between two day care nurseries in Greater Cairo. Non-probability purposive sampling was used and a triangulation of semi-structured interviews, document analysis and participant-observation were applied simultaneously. The in-depth case study analysis took place over a longitudinal study of four calendar months. Results/Findings: Findings demonstrated that leading change in an entrepreneurial setup must be initiated by the entrepreneur, who must also be the owner of the change process. Another important finding showed that the culture of change, although created by the entrepreneur, needs the support and engagement of followers, who should be sharing the same value system and vision of the entrepreneur. Conclusions and Implications: An important implication suggests that during the first year of a start-up lifecycle, special emphasis must be made to the recruitment and selection of personnel, who should play a role into setting the new start-up culture and help it grow or shrink. Another drawn conclusion is that the success of the change must be measured in both quantitative and qualitative terms. Increasing revenues and customer attrition rates -as quantitative KPIs- must be aligned with other qualitative KPIs like customer satisfaction, employee satisfaction, and organizational commitment and business reputation. Originality of Paper: The paper addresses change management in an entrepreneurial concept, with an empirical application on an Egyptian start-up model providing a service to both adults and children. This privileges the research as the constructs measured merged together the level of satisfaction of employees, decision-makers (parents of children), and the users (children).

Keywords: leadership, change management, entrepreneurship, startup business

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6392 Projections of Climate Change in the Rain Regime of the Ibicui River Basin

Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Bierhals, Francisco Pereira, José Leandro Néris, Matheus Rippel, Luciane Salvi

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The global concern about climate change has been increasing, since the emission of gases from human activities contributes to the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, indicating significant impacts to the planet in the coming years. The study of precipitation regime is fundamental for the development of research in several areas. Among them are hydrology, agriculture, and electric sector. Using the climatic projections of the models belonging to the CMIP5, the main objective of the paper was to present an analysis of the impacts of climate change without rainfall in the Uruguay River basin. After an analysis of the results, it can be observed that for the future climate, there is a tendency, in relation to the present climate, for larger numbers of dry events, mainly in the winter months, changing the pluviometric regime for wet summers and drier winters. Given this projected framework, it is important to note the importance of adequate management of the existing water sources in the river basin, since the value of rainfall is reduced for the next years, it may compromise the dynamics of the ecosystems in the region. Facing climate change is fundamental issue for regions and cities all around the world. Society must improve its resilience to phenomenon impacts, and spreading the knowledge among decision makers and citizens is also essential. So, these research results can be subsidies for the decision-making in planning and management of mitigation measures and/or adaptation in south Brazil.

Keywords: climate change, hydrological potential, precipitation, mitigation

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6391 Investigation on Phase Change Device for Satellite Thermal Control

Authors: Meng-Hao Chen, Jeng-Der Huang, Chia-Ray Chen

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With the new space mission need of high power dissipation, low thermal inertia and cyclical operation unit, such as high power amplifier (HPA) for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite, the development of phase change material (PCM) technology seems to be a proper solution. Generally, the expected benefit of PCM solution is to eliminate temperature variation and maintain the stability of electronic units by using the latent heat during phase change process. It can also result in advantages of decreased radiator area and heater power. However, the PCMs have a drawback of low thermal conductivity that leads to large temperature gradient between the heat source and PCM. This paper thus presents both experimental and simplified numerical investigations on configuration design of PCM’s container. A comparison was carried out between the container with and without internal pin-fins structure. The results showed the benefit of pin-fins that act as the heat transfer enhancer to improve the temperature uniformity during phase transition. Furthermore, thermal testing and measurements were presented for four PCM candidates (i.e. n-octadecane, n-eicosane, glycerin and gallium). The solidification and supercooling behaviors on different PCMs were compared with available literature data and discussed in this study

Keywords: phase change material (PCM), thermal control, solidification, supercooling

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6390 Effects of Climate Change on Floods of Pakistan, and Gap Analysis of Existing Policies with Vision 2025

Authors: Saima Akbar, Tahseen Ullah Khan

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The analysis of the climate change impact on flood frequency represents an important issue for water resource management and flood risk mitigation. This research was conducted to address the effects of climate change on flood incidents of Pakistan and find out gaps in existing policies to reducing the environmental aspects on floods and effects of global warming. The main objective of this research was to critically analyses the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and Vision 2025, as an effective policy document which is not only hitting the target of a climate resilient Pakistan but provides room for efficient and flexible policy implementation. The methodology integrates projected changes in monsoon patterns (since last 20 years and overall change in rainfall pattern since 1901 to 2015 from Pakistan Metrological Department), glacier melting, decreasing dam capacity and lacks in existing policies by using SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats) model in order to explore the relative impacts of global warming on the system performance. Results indicate the impacts of climate change are significant, but probably not large enough to justify a major effort for adapting the physical infrastructure to expected climatic conditions in Vision 2025 which is our shared destination to progress, ultimate aspiration to see Pakistan among the ten largest economies of the world by 2047– the centennial year of our independence. The conclusion of this research was to adapt sustainable measures to reduce flood impacts and make policies as neighboring countries are adapting for their sustainability.

Keywords: climatic factors, monsoon, Pakistan, sustainability

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6389 Strategies Used by the Saffron Producers of Taliouine (Morocco) to Adapt to Climate Change

Authors: Aziz Larbi, Widad Sadok

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In Morocco, the mountainous regions extend over about 26% of the national territory where 30% of the total population live. They contain opportunities for agriculture, forestry, pastureland and mining. The production systems in these zones are characterised by crop diversification. However, these areas have become vulnerable to the effects of climate change. To understand these effects in relation to the population living in these areas, a study was carried out in the zone of Taliouine, in the Anti-Atlas. The vulnerability of crop productions to climate change was analysed and the different ways of adaptation adopted by farmers were identified. The work was done on saffron, the most profitable crop in the target area even though it requires much water. Our results show that the majority of the farmers surveyed had noticed variations in the climate of the region: irregularity of precipitation leading to a decrease in quantity and an uneven distribution throughout the year; rise in temperature; reduction in the cold period and less snow. These variations had impacts on the cropping system of saffron and its productivity. To cope with these effects, the farmers adopted various strategies: better management and use of water; diversification of agricultural activities; increase in the contribution of non-agricultural activities to their gross income; and seasonal migration.

Keywords: climate change, Taliouine, saffron, perceptions, adaptation strategies

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6388 Serious Gaming for Behaviour Change: A Review

Authors: Ramy Hammady, Sylvester Arnab

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Significant attention has been directed to adopt game interventions practically to change certain behaviours in many disciplines such as health, education, psychology through many years. That’s due to the intrinsic motivation that games can cause and the substantial impact the games can leave on the player. Many review papers were induced to highlight and measure the effectiveness of the game’s interventions on changing behaviours; however, most of these studies neglected the game design process itself and the game features and elements that can stimuli changing behaviours. Therefore, this paper aims to identify the most game design mechanics and features that are the most influencing on changing behaviour during or after games interventions. This paper also sheds light on the theories of changing behaviours that clearly can led the game design process. This study gives directions to game designers to spot the most influential game features and mechanics for changing behaviour games in order to exploit it on the same manner.

Keywords: behaviour change, game design, serious gaming, gamification, review

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6387 Statistical Analysis of Rainfall Change over the Blue Nile Basin

Authors: Hany Mustafa, Mahmoud Roushdi, Khaled Kheireldin

Abstract:

Rainfall variability is an important feature of semi-arid climates. Climate change is very likely to increase the frequency, magnitude, and variability of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms. The Blue Nile Basin is facing extreme climate change-related events such as floods and droughts and its possible impacts on ecosystem, livelihood, agriculture, livestock, and biodiversity are expected. Rainfall variability is a threat to food production in the Blue Nile Basin countries. This study investigates the long-term variations and trends of seasonal and annual precipitation over the Blue Nile Basin for 102-year period (1901-2002). Six statistical trend analysis of precipitation was performed with nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hands, four statistical absolute homogeneity tests: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, Buishand Range test, Pettitt test and the Von Neumann ratio test were applied to test the homogeneity of the rainfall data, using XLSTAT software, which results of p-valueless than alpha=0.05, were significant. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. The study recommends adaptation strategies to be streamlined to relevant policies, enhancing local farmers’ adaptive capacity for facing future climate change effects.

Keywords: Blue Nile basin, climate change, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 507
6386 A New Perspective: The Use of Low-Cost Phase Change Material in Building Envelope System

Authors: Andrey A. Chernousov, Ben Y. B. Chan

Abstract:

The use of the low-cost paraffinic phase change material can be rather effective in smart building envelopes in the South China region. Particular attention has to be paid to the PCM optimization as an exploitation conditions and the envelope insulation changes its thermal characteristics. The studied smart building envelope consists of a reinforced aluminum exterior, polymeric insulation foam, phase change material and reinforced interior gypsum board. A prototype sample was tested to validate the numerical scheme using EnergryPlus software. Three scenarios of insulation thermal resistance loss (ΔR/R = 0%, 25%, 50%) were compared with the different PCM thicknesses (tP=0, 1, 2.5, 5 mm). The comparisons were carried out for a west facing enveloped office building (50 storey). PCM optimization was applied to find the maximum efficiency for the different ΔR/R cases. It was found, during the optimization, that the PCM is an important smart component, lowering the peak energy demand up to 2.7 times. The results are not influenced by the insulation aging in terms of ΔR/R during long-term exploitation. In hot and humid climates like Hong Kong, the insulation core of the smart systems is recommended to be laminated completely. This can be very helpful in achieving an acceptable payback period.

Keywords: smart building envelope, thermal performance, phase change material, energy efficiency, large-scale sandwich panel

Procedia PDF Downloads 702
6385 Developing a Video Game (Historia’s Nightmare) and Finding Out if We Can Use It to Raise Social Awareness and Improve Learning

Authors: Hasibul Kabir, Samin Shahriar Tokey, Md. Tofazzal Hossain

Abstract:

One of the most necessary things in the present time is raising social awareness about global warming and climate change among the people. Though many types of mediums and techniques have been used to teach people about this global phenomenon, there are still more effective ways to reach people with useful information about global warming. As many traditional methods to teach people about global warming and climate change did not work well, video games were overdue. To learn how effective a video game can be in this regard, we developed a Video game, "Historia's Nightmare," that teaches people about Global warming and climate change. The game was designed to entertain people and give them an idea about the reasons and consequences of global warming and climate change while not being like traditional educational games. The game threw a mini quiz consisting of two MCQs based on the information shown in the game, where a gamer had to pass the quiz to reach the next level. We published the game on different platforms to let all types of people play and complete our experiment effectively. The game continuously communicated with our server to send data about gamers' performance. We observed the data, including the participants' performance, time spent, quiz score, and the in-game feedback on a regular basis, and finally came to a verdict. In our experiment, we have found that most participants positively accepted the game and learned something new. The participants who spent more on our game performed better in both quiz and the game. Our experiment's result demonstrates that video games can be a great way to teach people something, particularly to raise social awareness about global warming and climate change. It also demonstrates that the game can be a significant element in education and learning improvement.

Keywords: video game, global warming, social awareness, climate change, education, feedback

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6384 Numerical Analysis of a Strainer Using Porous Media Technique

Authors: Ji-Hoon Byeon, Kwon-Hee Lee

Abstract:

Strainer filter serves to block the inflow of impurities while mixed fluid is entering or exiting the piping. The filter of the strainer has a perforated structure, so that the pressure drop and the velocity change necessarily occur when the mixed fluid passes through the filter. It is possible to predict the pressure drop and velocity change of the strainer by numerical analysis by implementing all the perforated plates. However, if the size of the perforated plate exceeds a certain size, it is difficult to perform the numerical analysis, and sometimes we cannot guarantee its accuracy. In this study, we tried to predict the pressure drop and velocity change by using the porous media technique to obtain the equivalent resistance without actual implementation of the perforation shape of the strainer. Ansys-CFX, a commercial software, is used to perform the numerical analysis. The analysis procedure is as follows. Firstly, the unit pattern of the perforated plate is modeled, and the pressure drop is analyzed by varying the velocity by symmetry of the wall surface. Secondly, since the equation for obtaining resistance is a quadratic equation of pressure having unknown velocity, the viscous resistance and the inertia resistance of the perforated plate are obtained from the relationship between pressure and speed. Thirdly, by using the calculated resistance values, the values are substituted into the flat plate implemented as a two-dimensional porous media, and the accuracy is verified by comparing the pressure drop and the velocity change. Fourthly, the pressure drop and velocity change in the whole strainer are analyzed by using the resistance values obtained on the perforated plate in the actual whole strainer model. Using the porous media technique, it is found that pressure drop and velocity change can be predicted in relatively short time without modeling the overall shape of the filter. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Valve Center from the Regional Innovation Center(RIC) Program of Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy (MOTIE).

Keywords: strainer, porous media, CFD, numerical analysis

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6383 Perceived Impact of Climate Change on the Livelihood of Arable Crop Farmers in Ipokia Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria

Authors: Emmanuel Olugbenga Fakoya

Abstract:

The study examined the perceived impact of climate change on the livelihood of arable crop farmers in Ipokia Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria. Multistage sampling technique was used to select 80 arable crop farmers in the study area. Data collected were analyzed using percentages, frequencies and Chi square analysis. The result showed that 63.8 percent of the respondents were male while 55.0 percent were married. Less than half (30.0 percent) of the respondents were between the age bracket of 41-50 years and 50.0 percent had 6-10 household size. Furthermore, majority (40.0 percent) of the arable crop farmers farmed on an inherited land and 51.3 percent had 2-3 hectares of land. Majority (38.8 percent) of the farmers intercrop maize with cassava and maize with yam. Various strategies adapted to reduce the effect of climate change on their crop and livelihood include: crop rotation (53.8 percent), planting of leguminous crop (35.0 percent), application of organic fertilizers (45.0 percent), mulching (56.3 percent) and by planting drought resistance crops (46.5 percent). Reported among the effects of climate change on crop and farmers’ livelihood were: discoloration of crop leave (63.8 percent), increase infestation of pests and diseases (58.8 percent) and reduction of crop yield (60.0 percent). Chi- square analysis showed significant relationship between impact of climate change on arable crop production and thus famers’ livelihood. It was concluded from the study that climate change is an impinging factor that seriously affect arable crop production and hence farmers’ livelihood despite coping strategies to minimize its effect. It was however recommended that Agricultural policies and practices that could minimize or eliminate its effect should be seriously enacted to boost production and increase farmers’ livelihood.

Keywords: agricultural extension, extension agent, private sector, perception

Procedia PDF Downloads 420
6382 Climate Change and Economic Performance in Selected Oil-Producing African Countries: A Trend Analysis Approach

Authors: Waheed O. Majekodunmi

Abstract:

Climate change is a real global phenomenon and an unquestionable threat to our quest for a healthy and livable planet. It is now regarded as potentially the most monumental environmental challenge people and the planet will be confronted with over the next centuries. Expectedly, climate change mitigation was one of the central themes of COP 28. Despite contributing the least to climate change, Africa is and remains the hardest hit by the negative consequences of climate change including poor growth performance. Currently, it is being hypothesized that the high level of vulnerability and exposure to climate-related disasters, low adaptive capacity against global warming and high mitigation costs of climate change across the continent could be linked to the recent abysmal economic performance of African countries, especially in oil-producing countries where greenhouse gas emissions, is potentially more prevalent. This paper examines the impact of climate change on the economic performance of selected oil-producing countries in Africa using evidence from Nigeria, Algeria and Angola. The objective of the study is to determine whether or not climate change influences the economic performance of oil-producing countries in Africa by examining the nexus between economic growth and climate-related variables. The study seeks to investigate the effect of climate change on the pace of economic growth in African oil-producing countries. To achieve the research objectives, this study utilizes a quantitative approach by using historical and current secondary data sets to determine the relationship between climate-related variables and economic growth variables in the selected countries. The study employed numbers, percentages, tables and trend graphs to explain the trends or common patterns between climate change, economic growth and determinants of economic growth: governance effectiveness, infrastructure, macroeconomic stability and regulatory efficiency. Results from the empirical analysis of data show that the trends of economic growth and climate-related variables in the selected oil-producing countries are in the opposite directions as the increasing share of renewable energy sources in total energy consumption and the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions per capita in the oil-producing countries did not translate to higher economic growth. Further findings show that annual surface temperatures in the selected countries do not share similar trends with the food imports ratio and GDP per capita annual growth rate suggesting that climate change does not impact significantly agricultural productivity and economic growth in oil-producing countries in Africa. Annual surface temperature was also found to not share a similar pattern with governance effectiveness, macroeconomic stability and regulatory efficiency reinforcing the claim that some economic growth variables are independent of climate change. The policy implication of this research is that oil-producing African countries need to focus more on improving the macroeconomic environment and streamlining governance and institutional processes to boost their economic performance before considering the adoption of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Keywords: climate change, climate vulnerability, economic growth, greenhouse gas emissions per capita, oil-producing countries, share of renewable energy in total energy consumption

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6381 Microwave Assisted Foam-Mat Drying of Guava Pulp

Authors: Ovais S. Qadri, Abhaya K. Srivastava

Abstract:

Present experiments were carried to study the drying kinetics and quality of microwave foam-mat dried guava powder. Guava pulp was microwave foam mat dried using 8% egg albumin as foaming agent and then dried at microwave power 480W, 560W, 640W, 720W and 800W, foam thickness 3mm, 5mm and 7mm and inlet air temperature of 40˚C and 50˚C. Weight loss was used to estimate change in drying rate with respect to time. Powdered samples were analysed for various physicochemical quality parameters viz. acidity, pH, TSS, colour change and ascorbic acid content. Statistical analysis using three-way ANOVA revealed that sample of 5mm foam thickness dried at 800W and 50˚C was the best with 0.3584% total acid, 3.98 pH, 14min drying time, 8˚Brix TSS, 3.263 colour change and 154.762mg/100g ascorbic acid content.

Keywords: foam mat drying, foam mat guava, guava powder, microwave drying

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6380 A New Social Vulnerability Index for Evaluating Social Vulnerability to Climate Change at the Local Scale

Authors: Cuong V Nguyen, Ralph Horne, John Fien, France Cheong

Abstract:

Social vulnerability to climate change is increasingly being acknowledged, and proposals to measure and manage it are emerging. Building upon this work, this paper proposes an approach to social vulnerability assessment using a new mechanism to aggregate and account for causal relationships among components of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). To operationalize this index, the authors propose a means to develop an appropriate primary dataset, through application of a specifically-designed household survey questionnaire. The data collection and analysis, including calibration and calculation of the SVI is demonstrated through application in case study city in central coastal Vietnam. The calculation of SVI at the fine-grained local neighbourhood scale provides high resolution in vulnerability assessment, and also obviates the need for secondary data, which may be unavailable or problematic, particularly at the local scale in developing countries. The SVI household survey is underpinned by the results of a Delphi survey, an in-depth interview and focus group discussions with local environmental professionals and community members. The research reveals inherent limitations of existing SVIs but also indicates the potential for their use in assessing social vulnerability and making decisions associated with responding to climate change at the local scale.

Keywords: climate change, local scale, social vulnerability, social vulnerability index

Procedia PDF Downloads 403
6379 A Multi-Release Software Reliability Growth Models Incorporating Imperfect Debugging and Change-Point under the Simulated Testing Environment and Software Release Time

Authors: Sujit Kumar Pradhan, Anil Kumar, Vijay Kumar

Abstract:

The testing process of the software during the software development time is a crucial step as it makes the software more efficient and dependable. To estimate software’s reliability through the mean value function, many software reliability growth models (SRGMs) were developed under the assumption that operating and testing environments are the same. Practically, it is not true because when the software works in a natural field environment, the reliability of the software differs. This article discussed an SRGM comprising change-point and imperfect debugging in a simulated testing environment. Later on, we extended it in a multi-release direction. Initially, the software was released to the market with few features. According to the market’s demand, the software company upgraded the current version by adding new features as time passed. Therefore, we have proposed a generalized multi-release SRGM where change-point and imperfect debugging concepts have been addressed in a simulated testing environment. The failure-increasing rate concept has been adopted to determine the change point for each software release. Based on nine goodness-of-fit criteria, the proposed model is validated on two real datasets. The results demonstrate that the proposed model fits the datasets better. We have also discussed the optimal release time of the software through a cost model by assuming that the testing and debugging costs are time-dependent.

Keywords: software reliability growth models, non-homogeneous Poisson process, multi-release software, mean value function, change-point, environmental factors

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6378 Application of a Theoretical framework as a Context for a Travel Behavior Change Policy Intervention

Authors: F. Moghtaderi, M. Burke, J. Troelsen

Abstract:

There has been a significant decline in active travel as well as the massive increase use of car-dependent travel mode in many countries during past two decades. Evidential risks for people’s physical and mental health problems are followed by this increased use of motorized travel mode. These problems range from overweight and obesity to increasing air pollution. In response to these rising concerns, local councils and other interested organizations around the world have introduced a variety of initiatives regarding reduce the dominance of cars for the daily journeys. However, the nature of these kinds of interventions, which related to the human behavior, make lots of complexities. People’s travel behavior and changing this behavior, has two different aspects. People’s attitudes and perceptions toward the sustainable and healthy modes of travel, and motorized travel modes (especially private car use) is one these two aspects. The other one related to people’s behavior change processes. There are no comprehensive model in order to guide policy interventions to increase the level of succeed of such interventions. A comprehensive theoretical framework is required in accordance to facilitate and guide the processes of data collection and analysis to achieve the best possible guidelines for policy makers. Regarding this gaps in the travel behavior change research, this paper attempted to identify and suggest a multidimensional framework in order to facilitate planning interventions. A structured mixed-method is suggested regarding the expand the scope and improve the analytic power of the result according to the complexity of human behavior. In order to recognize people’s attitudes, a theory with the focus on people’s attitudes towards a particular travel behavior was needed. The literature around the theory of planned behavior (TPB) was the most useful, and had been proven to be a good predictor of behavior change. Another aspect of the research, related to the people’s decision-making process regarding explore guidelines for the further interventions. Therefore, a theory was needed to facilitate and direct the interventions’ design. The concept of the transtheoretical model of behavior change (TTM) was used regarding reach a set of useful guidelines for the further interventions with the aim to increase active travel and sustainable modes of travel. Consequently, a combination of these two theories (TTM and TPB) had presented as an appropriate concept to identify and design implemented travel behavior change interventions.

Keywords: behavior change theories, theoretical framework, travel behavior change interventions, urban research

Procedia PDF Downloads 342