Search results for: forecast aggregation

Authors: Xin-Hua Zhao

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In recent years, the growth rate of social responsibility reports disclosed by Chinese corporations has grown rapidly. The economic effects of the growing corporate social responsibility reports have become a hot topic. The article takes the chemical listed engineering corporations that disclose social responsibility reports in China as a sample, and based on the information asymmetry theory, examines the economic effect generated by corporate social responsibility disclosure with the method of ordinary least squares. The research is conducted from the perspective of analysts’ earnings forecasts and studies the impact of corporate social responsibility information disclosure on improving the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. The results show that there is a statistically significant negative correlation between corporate social responsibility disclosure index and analysts’ earnings forecast error. The conclusions confirm that enterprises can reduce the asymmetry of social and environmental information by disclosing social responsibility reports, and thus improve the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts. It can promote the effective allocation of resources in the market.

Keywords: analysts' earnings forecasts, corporate social responsibility disclosure, economic effect, information asymmetry

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Authors: S. Neelima, P. S. Subramanyam

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The major tool for distribution planning is load forecasting, which is the anticipation of the load in advance. Artificial neural networks have found wide applications in load forecasting to obtain an efficient strategy for planning and management. In this paper, the application of neural networks to study the design of short term load forecasting (STLF) Systems was explored. Our work presents a pragmatic methodology for short term load forecasting (STLF) using proposed two-stage model of wavelet transform (WT) and artificial neural network (ANN). It is a two-stage prediction system which involves wavelet decomposition of input data at the first stage and the decomposed data with another input is trained using a separate neural network to forecast the load. The forecasted load is obtained by reconstruction of the decomposed data. The hybrid model has been trained and validated using load data from Telangana State Electricity Board.

Keywords: electrical distribution systems, wavelet transform (WT), short term load forecasting (STLF), artificial neural network (ANN)

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Authors: Harith Mohammed Benbouali

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The concept of sustainable development is becoming increasingly important in our society. The efforts of specialized agencies, cleverly portrayed in the media, allow a widespread environmental awareness. Far from the old environmental movement in the backward-looking nostalgia, the environment is combined with today's progress. Many areas now include these concerns in their efforts, this in order to try to reduce the negative impact of human activities on the environment. The quantitative dimension of development has given way to the quality aspect. However, this feature is not common, and the initial target was abandoned in favor of economic considerations. Specialists in the field of building and construction have constantly sought to further integrate the environmental dimension, creating a seal of high environmental quality buildings. The pursuit of well-being of neighborhood residents and the quality of buildings are also a hot topic in planning. Quality of life is considered so on, since financial concerns dominate to the detriment of the environment and the welfare of the occupants. This work concerns the development of an analytical method based on multiple indicators of objectives across the district. The quantification of indicators related to objectives allows the construction professional, the developer or the community, to quantify and compare different alternatives for development of a neighborhood. This quantification is based on the use of simulation tools and a multi-criteria aggregation.

Keywords: sustainable development, environment, district, indicators, multi-criteria analysis, evaluation

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Authors: Su Bin Wang, Jin Hee Ahn, Tong-Shin Chang

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The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) are member of nuclear receptor superfamily that act as a ligand-activated transcription factors. Although platelets lack a nucleus, previous studies have shown that PPARγ agonists, rosiglitazone, inhibited platelet activation induced by collagen. In this study, we investigated the inhibitory effects of KR-62980, a newly synthesized PPARγ agonist, on collagen receptor-stimulated platelet activation. The specific tyrosine phosphorylations of key components (Syk, Vav1, Btk and PLCγ2) for collagen receptor signaling pathways were suppressed by KR-62980. KR-62980 also attenuated downstream responses including cytosolic calcium elevation, P-selectin surface exposure, and integrin αIIbβ3 activation. PPARγ was found to associate with multiple proteins within the LAT signaling complex in collagen-stimulated platelets. This association was prevented by KR-62980, indicating a potential mechanism for PPARγ function in collagen-stimulated platelet activation. Furthermore, KR-62980 inhibited platelet aggregation and adhesion in response to collagen in vitro and prolonged in vivo thrombotic response in carotid arteries of mice. Collectively, these data suggest that KR-62980 inhibits collagen-stimulated platelet activation and thrombus formation through modulating the collagen receptor signaling pathways.

Keywords: KR-62980, PPARγ, antiplatelet, thrombosis

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Authors: Kwangwon Seo, Haksoo Han

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Al-Si was synthesized and introduced in poly 2,2’-m-(phenylene)-5,5’-bibenzimidazole (PBI). As a result, a series of five Al-Si/PBI composite (ASPBI) membranes (0, 3, 6, 9, and 12 wt.%) were developed and characterized for application in high temperature polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (HT-PEMFCs). The chemical and morphological structure of ASPBI membranes were analyzed by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffractometer and scanning electron microscopy. According to the doping level test and thermogravimetric analysis, as the concentration of Al-Si increased, the doping level increased up to 475%. Moreover, the proton conductivity, current density at 0.6V, and maximum power density of ASPBI membranes increased up to 0.31 Scm-1, 0.320 Acm-2, and 0.370 Wcm-2, respectively, because the increased concentration of Al-Si allows the membranes to hold more PA. Alternatively, as the amount of Al-Si increased, the tensile strength of PA-doped and -undoped membranes decreased. This was resulted by both excess PA and aggregation, which can cause serious degradation of the membrane and induce cracks. Moreover, the PA-doped and -undoped ASPBI12 had the lowest tensile strength. The improved performances of ASPBI membranes imply that ASPBI membranes are possible candidates for HT-PEMFC applications. However, further studies searching to improve the compatibility between PBI matrix and inorganic and optimize the loading of Al-Si should be performed.

Keywords: composite membrane, high temperature polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell, membrane electrode assembly, polybenzimidazole, polymer electrolyte membrane, proton conductivity

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera, Manuel Angel Camacho

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This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors’. The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Keywords: demand forecasting, empirical distribution, propagation of error, Bogota

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Authors: Ahmadu Girgiri, Lawan Gana Ali, Mamman M. Baba

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Environmental security clearly articulates the perfections and developments of various communities around the world irrespective of the region, culture, religion or social inclination. Although, the present state of insecurity has become serious issue devastating the peace, unity, stability and progress of man and his physical environment particularly in developing countries. Recently, measure of security and it management in Nigeria has been a bottle-neck to the effectiveness and advancement of various sectors that include; business, education, social relations, politics and above all an economy. Several measures have been considered on mitigating environment insecurity such as surveillance, demarcation, security personnel empowerment and the likes, but still the issue remains disturbing. In this paper, we present the application of new technology that contributes to the improvement of security surveillance known as “Wireless Sensor Network (WSN)”. The system is new, smart and emerging technology that provides monitoring, detection and aggregation of information using sensor nodes and wireless network. WSN detects, monitors and stores information or activities in the deployed area such as schools, environment, business centers, public squares, industries, and outskirts and transmit to end users. This will reduce the cost of security funding and eases security surveillance depending on the nature and the requirement of the deployment.

Keywords: application, environment, insecurity, sensor, wireless sensor network

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Authors: Gajaanuja Megalathan, Banuka Athuraliya

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Crime is one of our society's most intimidating and threatening challenges. With the majority of the population residing in cities, many experts and data provided by local authorities suggest a rapid increase in the number of crimes committed in these cities in recent years. There has been an increasing graph in the crime rates. People living in Sri Lanka have the right to know the exact crime rates and the crime rates in the future of the place they are living in. Due to the current economic crisis, crime rates have spiked. There have been so many thefts and murders recorded within the last 6-10 months. Although there are many sources to find out, there is no solid way of searching and finding out the safety of the place. Due to all these reasons, there is a need for the public to feel safe when they are introduced to new places. Through this research, the author aims to develop a mobile application that will be a solution to this problem. It is mainly targeted at tourists, and people who recently relocated will gain advantage of this application. Moreover, the Arima Model combined with ANN is to be used to predict crime rates. From the past researchers' works, it is evidently clear that they haven’t used the Arima model combined with Artificial Neural Networks to forecast crimes.

Keywords: arima model, ANN, crime prediction, data analysis

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Authors: Muhammad Bilal, Adil Ahmed

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This study proposes an approach for electrical induction motor predictive maintenance utilizing machine learning algorithms. On the basis of a study of temperature data obtained from sensors put on the motor, the goal is to predict motor failures. The proposed models are trained to identify whether a motor is defective or not by utilizing machine learning algorithms like Support Vector Machines (SVM) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). According to a thorough study of the literature, earlier research has used motor current signature analysis (MCSA) and vibration data to forecast motor failures. The temperature signal methodology, which has clear advantages over the conventional MCSA and vibration analysis methods in terms of cost-effectiveness, is the main subject of this research. The acquired results emphasize the applicability and effectiveness of the temperature-based predictive maintenance strategy by demonstrating the successful categorization of defective motors using the suggested machine learning models.

Keywords: predictive maintenance, electrical induction motors, machine learning, temperature signal methodology, motor failures

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Authors: Bibhuti Bhusan Sahoo, Ramakar Jha

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Mapping of the extreme events (droughts) is one of the adaptation strategies to consequences of increasing climatic inconsistency and climate alterations. There is no operational practice to forecast the drought. One of the suggestions is to update mapping of drought prone areas for developmental planning. Drought indices play a significant role in drought mitigation. Many scientists have worked on different statistical analysis in drought and other climatological hazards. Many researchers have studied droughts individually for different sub-divisions or for India. Very few workers have studied district wise probabilities over large scale. In the present study, district wise drought probabilities over KBK (Kalahandi-Balangir-Koraput) districts of Odisha, India, Which are seriously prone to droughts, has been established using Hydrological drought index and Meteorological drought index along with the remote sensing drought indices to develop a multidirectional approach in the field of drought mitigation. Mapping for moderate and severe drought probabilities for KBK districts has been done and regions belonging different class intervals of probabilities of drought have been demarcated. Such type of information would be a good tool for planning purposes, for input in modelling and better promising results can be achieved.

Keywords: drought indices, KBK districts, proposed drought severity index, SPI

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Authors: Nutnicha Wongpadungkiat, Suwit Siriwatanayotin, Aluck Thipayarat, Punchira Vongsawasdi, Chotika Viriyarattanasak

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Chicken products are major export product of Thailand. With a dramatically increasing consumption of chicken product in the world, there are abundant wastes from chicken meat processing industry. Recently, much research in the development of value-added products from chicken meat industry has focused on the production of protein hydrolysate, utilized as food ingredients for human diet and animal feed. The present study aimed to determine the effect of thermal pre-treatment on functional properties of chicken protein hydrolysate. Chicken breasts were heated at 40, 60, 80 and 100ºC prior to hydrolysis by Alcalase at 60ºC, pH 8 for 4 hr. The hydrolysate was freeze-dried, and subsequently used for assessment of its functional properties molecular weight by gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE). The obtained results show that increasing the pre-treatment temperature increased oil holding capacity and emulsion stability while decreasing antioxidant activity and water holding capacity. The SDS-PAGE analysis showed the evidence of protein aggregation in the hydrolysate treated at the higher pre-treatment temperature. These results suggest the connection between molecular weight of the hydrolysate and its functional properties.

Keywords: chicken protein hydrolysate, enzymatic hydrolysis, thermal pretreatment, functional properties

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Authors: Al Romano, Jeryl C. Hije, Mechaela Marie O. Tabiolo

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The decline in water quality is a major factor in aquatic disease outbreaks and can lead to significant mortality among aquatic organisms. Understanding the relationship between dissolved oxygen (DO) and water temperature is crucial, as these variables directly impact the health, behavior, and survival of fish populations. This study investigated how DO levels, water temperature, and atmospheric temperature interact in Sampaloc Lake to assess the risk of fish mortality. By employing a combination of linear regression models and machine learning techniques, researchers developed predictive models to forecast DO concentrations at various depths. The results indicate that while DO levels generally decrease with depth, the predicted concentrations are sufficient to support the survival of common fish species in Sampaloc Lake during March, April, and May 2025.

Keywords: aquaculture, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, regression analysis, machine learning, fish mass mortality, early warning system

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Authors: Julien Caudeville, Muriel Ismert

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Analyzing the relationship between environment and health has become a major preoccupation for public health as evidenced by the emergence of the French national plans for health and environment. These plans have identified the following two priorities: (1) to identify and manage geographic areas, where hotspot exposures are suspected to generate a potential hazard to human health; (2) to reduce exposure inequalities. At a regional scale and fine resolution of exposure outcome prerequisite, environmental monitoring networks are not sufficient to characterize the multidimensionality of the exposure concept. In an attempt to increase representativeness of spatial exposure assessment approaches, risk composite indicators could be built using additional available databases and theoretical framework approaches to combine factor risks. To achieve those objectives, combining data process and transfer modeling with a spatial approach is a fundamental prerequisite that implies the need to first overcome different scientific limitations: to define interest variables and indicators that could be built to associate and describe the global source-effect chain; to link and process data from different sources and different spatial supports; to develop adapted methods in order to improve spatial data representativeness and resolution. A GIS-based modeling platform for quantifying human exposure to chemical substances (PLAINE: environmental inequalities analysis platform) was used to build health risk indicators within the Lorraine region (France). Those indicators combined chemical substances (in soil, air and water) and noise risk factors. Tools have been developed using modeling, spatial analysis and geostatistic methods to build and discretize interest variables from different supports and resolutions on a 1 km2 regular grid within the Lorraine region. By example, surface soil concentrations have been estimated by developing a Kriging method able to integrate surface and point spatial supports. Then, an exposure model developed by INERIS was used to assess the transfer from soil to individual exposure through ingestion pathways. We used distance from polluted soil site to build a proxy for contaminated site. Air indicator combined modeled concentrations and estimated emissions to take in account 30 polluants in the analysis. For water, drinking water concentrations were compared to drinking water standards to build a score spatialized using a distribution unit serve map. The Lden (day-evening-night) indicator was used to map noise around road infrastructures. Aggregation of the different factor risks was made using different methodologies to discuss weighting and aggregation procedures impact on the effectiveness of risk maps to take decisions for safeguarding citizen health. Results permit to identify pollutant sources, determinants of exposure, and potential hotspots areas. A diagnostic tool was developed for stakeholders to visualize and analyze the composite indicators in an operational and accurate manner. The designed support system will be used in many applications and contexts: (1) mapping environmental disparities throughout the Lorraine region; (2) identifying vulnerable population and determinants of exposure to set priorities and target for pollution prevention, regulation and remediation; (3) providing exposure database to quantify relationships between environmental indicators and cancer mortality data provided by French Regional Health Observatories.

Keywords: health risk, environment, composite indicator, hotspot areas

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Authors: Snezana Mugosa, Zoran Todorovic, Zoran Bukumiric, Ivan Radosavljevic, Natasa Djordjevic

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Introduction: Various studies have shown that the frequency of clopidogrel resistance ranges from 4-40%. The aim of this study was to provide in depth analysis of genetic and non-genetic factors that influence clopidogrel resistance in cardiology patients. Methods: We have conducted a prospective study in 200 hospitalized patients hospitalized at Cardiology Centre of the Clinical Centre of Montenegro. CYP2C19 genetic testing was conducted, and the PREDICT score was calculated in 102 out of 200 patients treated with clopidogrel in order to determine the influence of genetic and non-genetic factors on outcomes of interest. Adverse cardiovascular events and adverse reactions to clopidogrel were assessed during 12 months follow up period. Results: PREDICT score and CYP2C19 enzymatic activity were found to be statistically significant predictors of expressing lack of therapeutic efficacy of clopidogrel by multivariate logistic regression, without multicollinearity or interaction between the predictors (p = 0.002 and 0.009, respectively). Conclusions: Pharmacogenetics analyses that were done in the Montenegrin population of patients for the first time suggest that these analyses can predict patient response to the certain therapy. Stepwise approach could be used in assessing the clopidogrel resistance in cardiology patients, combining the PREDICT score, platelet aggregation test, and genetic testing for CYP2C19 polymorphism.

Keywords: clopidogrel, pharmacogenetics, pharmacotherapy, PREDICT score

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Authors: Ahmed El-Banbi

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Several PVT models exist to represent how PVT properties are handled in sub-surface and surface engineering calculations for oil and gas production. The most commonly used models include black oil, modified black oil (MBO), and compositional models. These models are used in calculations that allow engineers to optimize and forecast well and reservoir performance (e.g., reservoir simulation calculations, material balance, nodal analysis, surface facilities, etc.). The choice of which model is dependent on fluid type and the production process (e.g., depletion, water injection, gas injection, etc.). Based on close to 2,000 reservoir fluid samples collected from different basins and locations, this paper presents some conclusions on the occurrence of reservoir fluids. It also reviews the common methods used to classify reservoir fluid types. Based on new criteria related to the production behavior of different fluids and economic considerations, an updated classification of reservoir fluid types is presented in the paper. Recommendations on the use of different PVT models to simulate the behavior of different reservoir fluid types are discussed. Each PVT model requirement is highlighted. Available methods for the calculation of PVT properties from each model are also discussed. Practical recommendations and tips on how to control the calculations to achieve the most accurate results are given.

Keywords: PVT models, fluid types, PVT properties, fluids classification

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Authors: Georg Brunnthaller, Sandra Stein, Wilfried Sihn

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Logistics service providers are facing increasing volatility concerning future transport demand. Short-term planning horizons and planning uncertainties lead to reduced capacity utilisation and increasing empty mileage. To overcome these challenges, a model is proposed to continuously pre-plan future transport capacity in order to redesign and adjust the intermodal fleet accordingly. It is expected that the model will enable logistics service providers to organise more economically and ecologically sustainable transport chains in a more flexible way. To further describe such planning aspects, this paper gives a structured literature review on transport planning problems. The focus is on strategic and tactical planning levels, comprising relevant fleet-sizing-, network-design- and choice-of-carriers-problems. Models and their developed solution techniques are presented and the literature review is concluded with an outlook to our future research objectives

Keywords: choice of transport mode, fleet-sizing, freight transport planning, multimodal, review, service network design

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Authors: Moses Emetere, Marvel Akinyemi, S. E. Sanni

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At the moment, AERONET or AMMA database shows a large volume of data loss. With only about 47% data set available to the scientist, it is evident that accurate nowcast or forecast cannot be guaranteed. The calibration constants of most radiosonde or weather stations are not compatible with the atmospheric conditions of the West African climate. A dispersion model was developed to incorporate salient mathematical representations like a Unified number. The Unified number was derived to describe the turbulence of the aerosols transport in the frictional layer of the lower atmosphere. Fourteen years data set from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) was tested using the dispersion model. A yearly estimation of the atmospheric constants over Ouagadougou using the model was obtained with about 87.5% accuracy. It further revealed that the average atmospheric constant for Ouagadougou-Niger is a_1 = 0.626, a_2 = 0.7999 and the tuning constants is n_1 = 0.09835 and n_2 = 0.266. Also, the yearly atmospheric constants affirmed the lower atmosphere of Ouagadougou is very dynamic. Hence, it is recommended that radiosonde and weather station manufacturers should constantly review the atmospheric constant over a geographical location to enable about eighty percent data retrieval.

Keywords: aerosols retention, aerosols loading, statistics, analytical technique

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Authors: Dewi Tristantini, Jason Jonathan

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Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) is one of the deathliest diseases which is caused by atherosclerosis. Atherosclerosis is a disease that plaque builds up inside the arteries. Plaque is made up of fat, cholesterol, calcium, platelet, and other substances found in blood. The current treatment of atherosclerosis is to provide antiplatelet therapy treatment, but such treatments often cause gastrointestinal irritation, muscle pain and hormonal imbalance. Mimusops elengi L.’s leaves can be utilized as a natural and cheap antiplatelet’s source because it contains flavonoids such as quertecin. Antiplatelet aggregation effect of Mimusops elengi L.’s leaves’ wet extract was measured by bleeding time on DDY strain mice with the test substances were given orally during the period of 8 days. The bleeding time was measured on first day and 9th day. Empirically, the dose which is used for humans is 8.5 g of leaves in 600 ml of water. This dose is equivalent to 2.1 g of leaves in 350 ml of water for mice. The extract was divided into 3 doses for mice: 0.05 ml/day; 0.1 ml/day; 0.2 ml/day. After getting the percentage of the increase in bleeding time, data were analyzed by analysis of variance test (Anova), followed by individual comparison within the groups by LSD test. The test substances above respectively increased bleeding time 21%, 62%, and 128%. As the conclusion, the 0.02 ml/day dose of Mimusops elengi L.’s leaves’ wet extract could increase bleeding time better than clopidogrel as positive controls with 110% increase in bleeding time.

Keywords: antiplatelets, atheroschlerosis, bleeding time, Mimusops elengi

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Authors: Georg Brunnthaller, Sandra Stein, Wilfried Sihn

Abstract:

Transportation service providers are facing increasing volatility concerning future transport demand. Short-term planning horizons and planning uncertainties lead to reduced capacity utilization and increasing empty mileage. To overcome these challenges, a model is proposed to continuously pre-plan future transportation capacity in order to redesign and adjust the intermodal fleet accordingly. It is expected that the model will enable logistics service providers to organize more economically and ecologically sustainable transport chains in a more flexible way. To further describe these planning aspects, this paper gives an overview on transportation planning problems in a structured way. The focus is on strategic and tactical planning levels, comprising relevant fleet-sizing, service-network-design and choice-of-carriers-problems. Models and their developed solution techniques are presented, and the literature review is concluded with an outlook to our future research directions.

Keywords: freight transportation planning, multimodal, fleet-sizing, service network design, choice of transportation mode, review

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Authors: Michael Aupetit, Mahmoud Al-ismail, Khaled Mohamed

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Cancer is a major public health problem all over the world. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rate over all cancers for women in Qatar making its study a top priority of the country. Human cancer is a dynamic disease that develops over an extended period through the accumulation of a series of genetic alterations. A Darwinian process drives the tumor cells toward higher malignancy growing the branches of a progression tree in the space of genes expression. Although it is not possible to track these genetic alterations dynamically for one patient, it is possible to reconstruct the progression tree from the aggregation of thousands of tumor cells’ genetic profiles from thousands of different patients at different stages of the disease. Analyzing the progression tree is a way to detect pivotal molecular events that drive the malignant evolution and to provide a guide for the development of cancer diagnostics, prognostics and targeted therapeutics. In this work we present the development of a Visual Analytic web platform CanVis enabling users to upload gene-expression data and analyze their progression tree. The server computes the progression tree based on state-of-the-art techniques and allows an interactive visual exploration of this tree and the gene-expression data along its branching structure helping to discover potential driver genes.

Keywords: breast cancer, progression tree, visual analytics, web platform

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Corrado Corradini

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A considerable part of rainfall data to be used in the hydrological practice is available in aggregated form within constant time intervals. This can produce undesirable effects, like the underestimate of the annual maximum rainfall depth, Hd, associated with a given duration, d, that is the basic quantity in the development of rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships and in determining if climate change is producing effects on extreme event intensities and frequencies. The errors in the evaluation of Hd from data characterized by a coarse temporal aggregation, ta, and a procedure to reduce the non-homogeneity of the Hd series are here investigated. Our results indicate that: 1) in the worst conditions, for d=ta, the estimation of a single Hd value can be affected by an underestimation error up to 50%, while the average underestimation error for a series with at least 15-20 Hd values, is less than or equal to 16.7%; 2) the underestimation error values follow an exponential probability density function; 3) each very long time series of Hd contains many underestimated values; 4) relationships between the non-dimensional ratio ta/d and the average underestimate of Hd, derived from continuous rainfall data observed in many stations of Central Italy, may overcome this issue; 5) these equations should allow to improve the Hd estimates and the associated depth-duration-frequency curves at least in areas with similar climatic conditions.

Keywords: central Italy, extreme events, rainfall data, underestimation errors

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Authors: Seyed Abbas Tabatabaei, Saeid Amini, Hamid Reza Ghafouri

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One of the most important factors in flexible pavement failure is the lack of proper drainage along the roads. Water on the Paving Systems is one of the main parameters of pavement failure. Though, if water is discharged without delay and prior to discharge in order to prevent damaging the pavement the lifetime of the pavement will be considerably increased. In this study, duration of water stay and materials properties in pavement systems and the effects of aggregate gradation, and hydraulic conductivity of the drainage rate and Effects of subsurface drainage systems, drainage and reduction in the lifetime of the pavement have been studied. The study conducted in accordance with the terms offered can be concluded as under. The more hydraulic conductivity the less drainage time and the use of sub-surface drainage system causes two to three times of the pavement lifetime. In this research it has been tried by study and calculate the drained and undrained pavements lifetime by considering the effectiveness of water and drainage coefficient on flexible materials modulus and by using KENLAYER software to compare the present value cost of these pavements has been paid for a 20 year lifetime design. In this study, 14 pavement sections have been considered, of which 7 sections have been drained and 7 other not. Results show that drained pavements have more initial costs but the failure severity is so little in them and have longer lifetime for a 20 year lifetime design, the drained pavements seem so economic.

Keywords: drainage, base and sub-base, elasticity modulus, aggregation

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Authors: Maha Hammami, Olfa Benouda Sioud

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This study investigates the reliability of management earnings forecasts with reference to these two ingredients: verifiability and neutrality. Specifically, we examine the biasedness (or accuracy) of management earnings forecasts and company specific characteristics that can be associated with accuracy. Based on sample of 102 IPO prospectuses published for admission on NYSE Euronext Paris from 2002 to 2010, we found that these forecasts are on average optimistic and two of the five test variables, earnings variability and financial leverage are significant in explaining ex post bias. Acknowledging the possibility that the bias is the result of the managers’ forecasting behavior, we then examine whether managers decide to under-predict, over-predict or forecast accurately for self-serving purposes. Explicitly, we examine the role of financial distress, operating performance, ownership by insiders and the economy state in influencing managers’ forecasting preferences. We find that managers of distressed firms seem to over-predict future earnings. We also find that when managers are given more stock options, they tend to under-predict future earnings. Finally, we conclude that the management earnings forecasts are affected by an intentional bias due to managers’ forecasting preferences.

Keywords: intentional bias, management earnings forecasts, neutrality, verifiability

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Authors: Christina Roman, Deepak Koirala, Joseph A. Piccirilli

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Phage displaying synthetic Fab libraries have been used to obtain Fabs that bind to specific RNA targets with high affinity and specificity. These Fabs have been demonstrated to facilitate RNA crystallization. However, the antibody framework used in the construction of these phage display libraries contains numerous bulky, flexible, and charged residues, which facilitate solubility and hinder aggregation. These residues can interfere with crystallization due to the entropic cost associated with burying them within crystal contacts. To systematically reduce the surface entropy of the Fabs and improve their crystallization properties, a protein engineering strategy termed surface entropy reduction (SER) is being applied to the Fab framework. In this approach, high entropy residues are mutated to smaller ones such as alanine or serine. Focusing initially on Fab BL3-6, which binds an RNA AAACA pentaloop with 20nM affinity, the SER P server (http://services.mbi.ucla.edu/SER/) was used and analysis was performed on existing RNA-Fab BL3-6 co-crystal structures. From this analysis twelve surface entropy reduced mutants were designed. These SER mutants were expressed and are now being measured for their crystallization and diffraction performance with various RNA targets. So far, one mutant has generated 3.02 angstrom diffraction with the yjdF riboswitch RNA. Ultimately, the most productive mutations will be combined into a new Fab framework to be used in a optimized phage displayed Fab library.

Keywords: antibody fragment, crystallography, RNA, surface entropy reduction

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Authors: Nafisa Komilova, Plamena Angelova, Andrey Abramov, Ulugbek Mirkhodjaev

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Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder which is induced by the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the midbrain. The mechanism of neurodegeneration is associated with the aggregation of misfolded proteins, oxidative stress, and mitochondrial disfunction. Considering this, the process of removal of unwanted organelles or proteins by autophagy is vitally important in neurons, and activation of these processes could be protective in PD. Short-time acidification of cytosol can activate mitophagy and autophagy, and here we used sodium pyruvate and sodium lactate in human fibroblasts with PD mutations (Pink1, Pink1/Park2, α-syn triplication, A53T) to induce changes in intracellular pH. We have found that both lactate and pyruvate in millimolar concentrations can induce short-time acidification of cytosol in these cells. It induced activation of mitophagy and autophagy in control and PD fibroblasts and protected against cell death. Importantly, the application of lactate to acute brain slices of control and Pink1 knockout mice also induced a reduction of pH in neurons and astrocytes that increase the level of mitophagy. Thus, acidification of cytosol by compounds which play important role in cell metabolism also can activate mitophagy and autophagy and protect cells in the familial form of PD.

Keywords: Parkinson's disease, mutations, mitophagy, autophagy

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Authors: Dalia Jomehpour, Sara Sheikhlary, Esmaeil Heydari, Mohammad Hossien Majles Ara

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In this study, we report fulvic acid-coated iron oxide nanoparticles of 10.7 ± 2.7 nm size, which serve to inhibit amyloid fibrillation formation. Although the effect of fulvic acid on tau fibrils was investigated, to our best knowledge, its inhibitory impacts on amyloid aggregation formation have been assessed neither in-vitro nor in-vivo. On the other hand, iron oxide nanoparticles exhibit anti-amyloid activity on their own. This study investigates the inhibitory effect of fulvic acid coated iron oxide nanoparticles on amyloid aggregations formed from the commonly used in-vitro model, lysozyme from chicken egg white. FESEM, XRD, and FTIR characterization confirmed that fulvic acid was coated onto the surface of the nanoparticles. The inhibitory effects of the fulvic acid coated iron oxide nanoparticles were verified by Thioflavin T assay, circular dichroism (CD), and FESEM analysis. Furthermore, the toxicity of the nanoparticles on the neuroblastoma SH-SY5Y human cell line was assessed through an MTT assay. Our results indicate that fulvic acid coated iron oxide nanoparticles can efficiently inhibit the formation of amyloid aggregations while exhibiting negligible in-vitro toxicity; thus, they can be used as anti-amyloid agents in the development of the potential drug for neurodegenerative diseases.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, fulvic acid coated iron oxide nanoparticles, fulvic acid, amyloid inhibitor, polyphenols

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Authors: Abdulaziz Afandi

Abstract:

Minimizing the inventory cost, optimizing the inventory quantities, and increasing system operational availability are the main motivations to enhance forecasting demand of spare parts in a major power utility company in Medina. This paper reports in an effort made to optimize the orders quantities of spare parts by improving the method of forecasting the demand. The study focuses on equipment that has frequent spare parts purchase orders with uncertain demand. The pattern of the demand considers a lumpy pattern which makes conventional forecasting methods less effective. A comparison was made by benchmarking various methods of forecasting based on experts’ criteria to select the most suitable method for the case study. Three actual data sets were used to make the forecast in this case study. Two neural networks (NN) approaches were utilized and compared, namely long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The results as expected, showed that the NN models gave better results than traditional forecasting method (judgmental method). In addition, the LSTM model had a higher predictive accuracy than the MLP model.

Keywords: neural network, LSTM, MLP, forecasting demand, inventory management

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Şakir Bingöl, Abdullah Emre Aydemir, Abdullah Saado, Ahmet Akıl, Elif Canbaz, Feyza Nur Bulgurcu, Gizem Uzun, Günsu Bilge Dal, Muhammedcan Pirinççi

Abstract:

Smart contracts, which can be applied in many different areas, from financial applications to the internet of things, come to the fore with their security, low cost, and self-executing features. In this paper, it is focused on peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading and the implementation of the smart contract on the Ethereum blockchain. It is assumed a microgrid consists of consumers and prosumers that can produce solar and wind energy. The proposed architecture is a system where the prosumer makes the purchase or sale request in the smart contract and the maximum price obtained through the distribution system operator (DSO) by forecasting. It is aimed to forecast the hourly maximum unit price of energy by using deep learning instead of a fixed pricing. In this way, it will make the system more reliable as there will be more dynamic and accurate pricing. For this purpose, Istanbul's energy generation, energy consumption and market clearing price data were used. The consistency of the available data and forecasting results is observed and discussed with graphs.

Keywords: energy trading smart contract, deep learning, microgrid, forecasting, Ethereum, peer to peer

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Rebone E. Mashapa, Phesheya E. Dlamini, Sandile S. Mthimkhulu

Abstract:

Woody plant encroachment, a land cover transformation that reduces grassland productivity may influence soil physical properties. The objective of the study was to determine the effect of woody plant encroachment on physical properties of vertic soils in a savanna grassland. In this study, we quantified and compared soil bulk density, aggregate stability and porosity in the top and subsoil of an open and woody encroached savanna grassland. The results revealed that soil bulk density increases, while porosity and mean weight diameter decreases with depth in both open and woody encroached grassland soil. Compared to open grassland, soil bulk density was 11% and 10% greater in the topsoil and subsoil, while porosity was 6% and 9% lower in the topsoil and subsoil of woody encroached grassland. Mean weight diameter, an indicator of soil aggregation increased by 38% only in the subsoil of encroached grasslands due to increasing clay content with depth. These results suggest that woody plant encroachment leads to compaction of vertic soils, which in turn reduces pore size distribution.

Keywords: soil depth, soil physical properties, vertic soils, woody plant encroachment

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: N. Boshkova, K. Kamburova, N. Tabakova, N. Boshkov, Ts. Radeva

Abstract:

Coatings based on polyaniline (PANI) can improve the resistance of steel against corrosion. In this work, the preparation of stable suspensions of colloidal PANI-SiO₂ particles, suitable for obtaining of composite anticorrosive coating on steel, is described. Electrokinetic data as a function of pH are presented, showing that the zeta potentials of the PANI-SiO₂ particles are governed primarily by the charged groups at the silica oxide surface. Electrosteric stabilization of the PANI-SiO₂ particles’ suspension against aggregation is realized at pH>5.5 (EB form of PANI) by adsorption of positively charged polyelectrolyte molecules onto negatively charged PANI-SiO₂ particles. The PANI-SiO₂ particles are incorporated by electrodeposition into the metal matrix of zinc in order to obtain composite (hybrid) coatings. The latter are aimed to ensure sacrificial protection of steel mainly in aggressive media leading to local corrosion damages. The surface morphology of the composite zinc coatings is investigated with SEM. The influence of PANI-SiO₂ particles on the cathodic and anodic processes occurring in the starting electrolyte for obtaining of the coatings is followed with cyclic voltammetry. The electrochemical and corrosion behavior is evaluated with potentiodynamic polarization curves and polarization resistance measurements. The beneficial effect of the stabilized PANI-SiO₂ particles for the increased protective ability of the composites is commented and discussed.

Keywords: corrosion, polyaniline-silica particles, zinc, protective ability

Procedia PDF Downloads 172