Search results for: LU/LC change

Authors: Paulo José Sigaúque, Paulo Rosman

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The Itajurú channel, located in the Eastern side of the Araruama lagoon, Rio de Janeiro state, is the one who makes the connection between Araruama lagoon and the sea. It is important to understand the hydrodynamic circulation of the location and effects of the sedimentological processes, and also estimate of the hydrodynamic and sedimentological processes in the future after the sea level change due to effects of climate change. This work presents results of a study about sediments dynamics in the Araruama lagoon focusing on the Itajurú channel region considering the present mean sea level and a foreseen sea level rise of 0.5 meters due to climate changes. The study was conducted with the aid of computer modeling for hydrodynamic and morphodynamic in SisBaHiA®. The results indicate that Araruama lagoon is composed by two hydrodynamics compartments; one is dominated by the action of the tide between the entrance of the channel and the strait of Perynas, and another one by the action of wind in narrow region between strait of Perynas and western extreme of the lagoon. With sea level rise, the magnitude of current velocities and flow rates is increased and consequently flow of sediment transport from upstream to downstream of Itajurú channel is increased and has more effect in the bridge Feliciano Sodré.

Keywords: hydrodinamic, superelevation, sea level, climate change

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Authors: Neelam Kadyan, Pratima Ranga, Yogender

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Indigenous people are the One who are affected by the climate change the most, although there have contributed little to its causes. This is largely a result of their historic dependence on local biological diversity, ecosystem services and cultural landscapes as a source of their sustenance and well-being. Comprising only four percent of the world’s population they utilize 22 percent of the world’s land surface. Despite their high exposure-sensitivity indigenous peoples and local communities are actively responding to changing climatic conditions and have demonstrated their resourcefulness and resilience in the face of climate change. Traditional Indigenous territories encompass up to 22 percent of the world’s land surface and they coincide with areas that hold 80 percent of the planet’s biodiversity. Also, the greatest diversity of indigenous groups coincides with the world’s largest tropical forest wilderness areas in the Americas (including Amazon), Africa, and Asia, and 11 percent of world forest lands are legally owned by Indigenous Peoples and communities. This convergence of biodiversity-significant areas and indigenous territories presents an enormous opportunity to expand efforts to conserve biodiversity beyond parks, which tend to benefit from most of the funding for biodiversity conservation. Tapping on Ancestral Knowledge Indigenous Peoples are carriers of ancestral knowledge and wisdom about this biodiversity. Their effective participation in biodiversity conservation programs as experts in protecting and managing biodiversity and natural resources would result in more comprehensive and cost effective conservation and management of biodiversity worldwide. Addressing the Climate Change Agenda Indigenous Peoples has played a key role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The territories of indigenous groups who have been given the rights to their lands have been better conserved than the adjacent lands (i.e., Brazil, Colombia, Nicaragua, etc.). Preserving large extensions of forests would not only support the climate change objectives, but it would respect the rights of Indigenous Peoples and conserve biodiversity as well. A climate change agenda fully involving Indigenous Peoples has many more benefits than if only government and/or the private sector are involved. Indigenous peoples are some of the most vulnerable groups to the negative effects of climate change. Also, they are a source of knowledge to the many solutions that will be needed to avoid or ameliorate those effects. For example, ancestral territories often provide excellent examples of a landscape design that can resist the negatives effects of climate change. Over the millennia, Indigenous Peoples have developed adaptation models to climate change. They have also developed genetic varieties of medicinal and useful plants and animal breeds with a wider natural range of resistance to climatic and ecological variability.

Keywords: ancestral knowledge, cost effective conservation, management, indigenous peoples, climate change

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Authors: Xia Fang

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Arid and semiarid areas of China (ASAC) have experienced significant land-use/cover changes (LUCC), along with intensified climate change. However, LUCC and climate changes and their individual and interactive effects on carbon stocks have not yet been fully understood in the ASAC. This study analyses the carbon stocks in the ASAC during 1980 - 2020 using the specific arid ecosystem model (AEM), and investigates the effects of LUCC and climate change on carbon stock trends. The results indicate that in the past 41 years, the ASAC carbon pool experienced an overall growth trend, with an increase of 182.03 g C/m2. Climatic factors (+291.99 g C/m2), especially the increase in precipitation, were the main drivers of the carbon pool increase. LUCC decreased the carbon pool (-112.27 g C/m2), mainly due to the decrease in grassland area (-2.77%). The climate-induced carbon sinks were distributed in northern Xinjiang, on the Ordos Plateau, and in Northeast China, while the LUCC-induced carbon sinks mainly occurred on the Ordos Plateau and the North China Plain, resulting in a net decrease in carbon sequestration in these regions according to carbon pool measurements. The study revealed that the combination of climate variability, LUCC, and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration resulted in an increase of approximately 182.03 g C/m2, which was mainly distributed in eastern Inner Mongolia and the western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our findings are essential for improving theoretical guidance to protect the ecological environment, rationally plan land use, and understand the sustainable development of arid and semiarid zones.

Keywords: AEM, climate change, LUCC, carbon stocks

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Authors: A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

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The change in orbit evolution between collocated satellites (X, Y) inside +/-0.09 ° E/W and +/- 0.07 ° N/S cluster, after one of these satellites is placed in an inclined orbit (satellite X) and the effect of this change in the collocation safety inside the cluster window has been studied and evaluated. Several collocation scenarios had been studied in order to adjust the location of both satellites inside their cluster to maximize the separation between them and safe the mission.

Keywords: satellite, GEO, collocation, risk assessment

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Authors: Niamh Herlihy, Helen Fischer, Rainer Sauerborn, Anneliese Depoux, Avner Bar-Hen, Antoine Flauhault, Stefanie Schütte

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In the recent decades, there has been an increase in the number of publications both in the scientific and grey literature on the potential health risks associated with climate change. Though interest in climate change and health is growing, there are still many gaps to adequately assess our future health needs in a warmer world. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be a key step in inciting the changes necessary to decelerate global warming and to target new strategies to mitigate the consequences on health systems. A long term and broad overview of existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. We conducted a scoping review of published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health from two large databases, PubMed and Web of Science, between 1990 and 2015. A scoping review allowed for a broad analysis of this complex topic on a meta-level as opposed to a thematically refined literature review. A detailed search strategy including specific climate and health terminology was used to search the two databases. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied in order to capture the most relevant literature on the human health impact of climate change within the chosen timeframe. Two reviewers screened the papers independently and any differences arising were resolved by a third party. Data was extracted, categorized and coded both manually and using R software. Analytics and infographics were developed from results. There were 7269 articles identified between the two databases following the removal of duplicates. After screening of the articles by both reviewers 3751 were included. As expected, preliminary results indicate that the number of publications on the topic has increased over time. Geographically, the majority of publications address the impact of climate change and health in Europe and North America, This is particularly alarming given that countries in the Global South will bear the greatest health burden. Concerning health outcomes, infectious diseases, particularly dengue fever and other mosquito transmitted infections are the most frequently cited. We highlight research gaps in certain areas e.g climate migration and mental health issues. We are developing a database of the identified climate change and health publications and are compiling a report for publication and dissemination of the findings. As health is a major co-beneficiary to climate change mitigation strategies, our results may serve as a useful source of information for research funders and investors when considering future research needs as well as the cost-effectiveness of climate change strategies. This study is part of an interdisciplinary project called 4CHealth that confronts results of the research done on scientific, political and press literature to better understand how the knowledge on climate change and health circulates within those different fields and whether and how it is translated to real world change.

Keywords: climate change, health, review, mapping

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Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

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Climate change is continuously affecting the ecosystem, species distribution as well as global biodiversity. The assessment of the species potential distribution and the spatial changes under various climate change scenarios is a significant step towards the conservation and mitigation of habitat shifts, and species' loss and vulnerability. In this context, the present study aimed to predict the influence of current and future climate on an ecologically vulnerable medicinal species, Garcinia gummi-gutta, of the southern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. The future projections were made for the period of 2050 and 2070 with RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario of 4.5 and 8.5 using 84 species occurrence data, and climatic variables from three different models of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment. Climatic variables contributions were assessed using jackknife test and AOC value 0.888 indicates the model perform with high accuracy. The major influencing variables will be annual precipitation, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest quarter. The model result shows that the current high potential distribution of the species is around 1.90% of the study area, 7.78% is good potential; about 90.32% is moderate to very low potential for species suitability. Finally, the results of all model represented that there will be a drastic decline in the suitable habitat distribution by 2050 and 2070 for all the RCP scenarios. The study signifies that MaxEnt model might be an efficient tool for ecosystem management, biodiversity protection, and species re-habitation planning under climate change.

Keywords: Garcinia gummi gutta, maximum entropy modeling, medicinal plants, climate change, western ghats, MaxEnt

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Authors: Nada Basset

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Problem Statement: The study examines the important role of leading change inside start-ups and highlights the challenges faced by an entrepreneur during the startup phase of the business. Research Methods/Procedures/Approaches: A qualitative research approach is taken, using the case study analysis method. A comparative study was made between two day care nurseries in Greater Cairo. Non-probability purposive sampling was used and a triangulation of semi-structured interviews, document analysis and participant-observation were applied simultaneously. The in-depth case study analysis took place over a longitudinal study of four calendar months. Results/Findings: Findings demonstrated that leading change in an entrepreneurial setup must be initiated by the entrepreneur, who must also be the owner of the change process. Another important finding showed that the culture of change, although created by the entrepreneur, needs the support and engagement of followers, who should be sharing the same value system and vision of the entrepreneur. Conclusions and Implications: An important implication suggests that during the first year of a start-up lifecycle, special emphasis must be made to the recruitment and selection of personnel, who should play a role into setting the new start-up culture and help it grow or shrink. Another drawn conclusion is that the success of the change must be measured in both quantitative and qualitative terms. Increasing revenues and customer attrition rates -as quantitative KPIs- must be aligned with other qualitative KPIs like customer satisfaction, employee satisfaction, and organizational commitment and business reputation. Originality of Paper: The paper addresses change management in an entrepreneurial concept, with an empirical application on an Egyptian start-up model providing a service to both adults and children. This privileges the research as the constructs measured merged together the level of satisfaction of employees, decision-makers (parents of children), and the users (children).

Keywords: leadership, change management, entrepreneurship, startup business

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Bierhals, Francisco Pereira, José Leandro Néris, Matheus Rippel, Luciane Salvi

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The global concern about climate change has been increasing, since the emission of gases from human activities contributes to the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, indicating significant impacts to the planet in the coming years. The study of precipitation regime is fundamental for the development of research in several areas. Among them are hydrology, agriculture, and electric sector. Using the climatic projections of the models belonging to the CMIP5, the main objective of the paper was to present an analysis of the impacts of climate change without rainfall in the Uruguay River basin. After an analysis of the results, it can be observed that for the future climate, there is a tendency, in relation to the present climate, for larger numbers of dry events, mainly in the winter months, changing the pluviometric regime for wet summers and drier winters. Given this projected framework, it is important to note the importance of adequate management of the existing water sources in the river basin, since the value of rainfall is reduced for the next years, it may compromise the dynamics of the ecosystems in the region. Facing climate change is fundamental issue for regions and cities all around the world. Society must improve its resilience to phenomenon impacts, and spreading the knowledge among decision makers and citizens is also essential. So, these research results can be subsidies for the decision-making in planning and management of mitigation measures and/or adaptation in south Brazil.

Keywords: climate change, hydrological potential, precipitation, mitigation

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Authors: Meng-Hao Chen, Jeng-Der Huang, Chia-Ray Chen

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With the new space mission need of high power dissipation, low thermal inertia and cyclical operation unit, such as high power amplifier (HPA) for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite, the development of phase change material (PCM) technology seems to be a proper solution. Generally, the expected benefit of PCM solution is to eliminate temperature variation and maintain the stability of electronic units by using the latent heat during phase change process. It can also result in advantages of decreased radiator area and heater power. However, the PCMs have a drawback of low thermal conductivity that leads to large temperature gradient between the heat source and PCM. This paper thus presents both experimental and simplified numerical investigations on configuration design of PCM’s container. A comparison was carried out between the container with and without internal pin-fins structure. The results showed the benefit of pin-fins that act as the heat transfer enhancer to improve the temperature uniformity during phase transition. Furthermore, thermal testing and measurements were presented for four PCM candidates (i.e. n-octadecane, n-eicosane, glycerin and gallium). The solidification and supercooling behaviors on different PCMs were compared with available literature data and discussed in this study

Keywords: phase change material (PCM), thermal control, solidification, supercooling

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Authors: Saima Akbar, Tahseen Ullah Khan

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The analysis of the climate change impact on flood frequency represents an important issue for water resource management and flood risk mitigation. This research was conducted to address the effects of climate change on flood incidents of Pakistan and find out gaps in existing policies to reducing the environmental aspects on floods and effects of global warming. The main objective of this research was to critically analyses the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and Vision 2025, as an effective policy document which is not only hitting the target of a climate resilient Pakistan but provides room for efficient and flexible policy implementation. The methodology integrates projected changes in monsoon patterns (since last 20 years and overall change in rainfall pattern since 1901 to 2015 from Pakistan Metrological Department), glacier melting, decreasing dam capacity and lacks in existing policies by using SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats) model in order to explore the relative impacts of global warming on the system performance. Results indicate the impacts of climate change are significant, but probably not large enough to justify a major effort for adapting the physical infrastructure to expected climatic conditions in Vision 2025 which is our shared destination to progress, ultimate aspiration to see Pakistan among the ten largest economies of the world by 2047– the centennial year of our independence. The conclusion of this research was to adapt sustainable measures to reduce flood impacts and make policies as neighboring countries are adapting for their sustainability.

Keywords: climatic factors, monsoon, Pakistan, sustainability

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Authors: Aziz Larbi, Widad Sadok

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In Morocco, the mountainous regions extend over about 26% of the national territory where 30% of the total population live. They contain opportunities for agriculture, forestry, pastureland and mining. The production systems in these zones are characterised by crop diversification. However, these areas have become vulnerable to the effects of climate change. To understand these effects in relation to the population living in these areas, a study was carried out in the zone of Taliouine, in the Anti-Atlas. The vulnerability of crop productions to climate change was analysed and the different ways of adaptation adopted by farmers were identified. The work was done on saffron, the most profitable crop in the target area even though it requires much water. Our results show that the majority of the farmers surveyed had noticed variations in the climate of the region: irregularity of precipitation leading to a decrease in quantity and an uneven distribution throughout the year; rise in temperature; reduction in the cold period and less snow. These variations had impacts on the cropping system of saffron and its productivity. To cope with these effects, the farmers adopted various strategies: better management and use of water; diversification of agricultural activities; increase in the contribution of non-agricultural activities to their gross income; and seasonal migration.

Keywords: climate change, Taliouine, saffron, perceptions, adaptation strategies

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Authors: Ramy Hammady, Sylvester Arnab

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Significant attention has been directed to adopt game interventions practically to change certain behaviours in many disciplines such as health, education, psychology through many years. That’s due to the intrinsic motivation that games can cause and the substantial impact the games can leave on the player. Many review papers were induced to highlight and measure the effectiveness of the game’s interventions on changing behaviours; however, most of these studies neglected the game design process itself and the game features and elements that can stimuli changing behaviours. Therefore, this paper aims to identify the most game design mechanics and features that are the most influencing on changing behaviour during or after games interventions. This paper also sheds light on the theories of changing behaviours that clearly can led the game design process. This study gives directions to game designers to spot the most influential game features and mechanics for changing behaviour games in order to exploit it on the same manner.

Keywords: behaviour change, game design, serious gaming, gamification, review

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Authors: Hany Mustafa, Mahmoud Roushdi, Khaled Kheireldin

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Rainfall variability is an important feature of semi-arid climates. Climate change is very likely to increase the frequency, magnitude, and variability of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms. The Blue Nile Basin is facing extreme climate change-related events such as floods and droughts and its possible impacts on ecosystem, livelihood, agriculture, livestock, and biodiversity are expected. Rainfall variability is a threat to food production in the Blue Nile Basin countries. This study investigates the long-term variations and trends of seasonal and annual precipitation over the Blue Nile Basin for 102-year period (1901-2002). Six statistical trend analysis of precipitation was performed with nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hands, four statistical absolute homogeneity tests: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, Buishand Range test, Pettitt test and the Von Neumann ratio test were applied to test the homogeneity of the rainfall data, using XLSTAT software, which results of p-valueless than alpha=0.05, were significant. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. The study recommends adaptation strategies to be streamlined to relevant policies, enhancing local farmers’ adaptive capacity for facing future climate change effects.

Keywords: Blue Nile basin, climate change, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis

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Authors: Andrey A. Chernousov, Ben Y. B. Chan

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The use of the low-cost paraffinic phase change material can be rather effective in smart building envelopes in the South China region. Particular attention has to be paid to the PCM optimization as an exploitation conditions and the envelope insulation changes its thermal characteristics. The studied smart building envelope consists of a reinforced aluminum exterior, polymeric insulation foam, phase change material and reinforced interior gypsum board. A prototype sample was tested to validate the numerical scheme using EnergryPlus software. Three scenarios of insulation thermal resistance loss (ΔR/R = 0%, 25%, 50%) were compared with the different PCM thicknesses (tP=0, 1, 2.5, 5 mm). The comparisons were carried out for a west facing enveloped office building (50 storey). PCM optimization was applied to find the maximum efficiency for the different ΔR/R cases. It was found, during the optimization, that the PCM is an important smart component, lowering the peak energy demand up to 2.7 times. The results are not influenced by the insulation aging in terms of ΔR/R during long-term exploitation. In hot and humid climates like Hong Kong, the insulation core of the smart systems is recommended to be laminated completely. This can be very helpful in achieving an acceptable payback period.

Keywords: smart building envelope, thermal performance, phase change material, energy efficiency, large-scale sandwich panel

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Authors: Hasibul Kabir, Samin Shahriar Tokey, Md. Tofazzal Hossain

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One of the most necessary things in the present time is raising social awareness about global warming and climate change among the people. Though many types of mediums and techniques have been used to teach people about this global phenomenon, there are still more effective ways to reach people with useful information about global warming. As many traditional methods to teach people about global warming and climate change did not work well, video games were overdue. To learn how effective a video game can be in this regard, we developed a Video game, "Historia's Nightmare," that teaches people about Global warming and climate change. The game was designed to entertain people and give them an idea about the reasons and consequences of global warming and climate change while not being like traditional educational games. The game threw a mini quiz consisting of two MCQs based on the information shown in the game, where a gamer had to pass the quiz to reach the next level. We published the game on different platforms to let all types of people play and complete our experiment effectively. The game continuously communicated with our server to send data about gamers' performance. We observed the data, including the participants' performance, time spent, quiz score, and the in-game feedback on a regular basis, and finally came to a verdict. In our experiment, we have found that most participants positively accepted the game and learned something new. The participants who spent more on our game performed better in both quiz and the game. Our experiment's result demonstrates that video games can be a great way to teach people something, particularly to raise social awareness about global warming and climate change. It also demonstrates that the game can be a significant element in education and learning improvement.

Keywords: video game, global warming, social awareness, climate change, education, feedback

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Authors: Ji-Hoon Byeon, Kwon-Hee Lee

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Strainer filter serves to block the inflow of impurities while mixed fluid is entering or exiting the piping. The filter of the strainer has a perforated structure, so that the pressure drop and the velocity change necessarily occur when the mixed fluid passes through the filter. It is possible to predict the pressure drop and velocity change of the strainer by numerical analysis by implementing all the perforated plates. However, if the size of the perforated plate exceeds a certain size, it is difficult to perform the numerical analysis, and sometimes we cannot guarantee its accuracy. In this study, we tried to predict the pressure drop and velocity change by using the porous media technique to obtain the equivalent resistance without actual implementation of the perforation shape of the strainer. Ansys-CFX, a commercial software, is used to perform the numerical analysis. The analysis procedure is as follows. Firstly, the unit pattern of the perforated plate is modeled, and the pressure drop is analyzed by varying the velocity by symmetry of the wall surface. Secondly, since the equation for obtaining resistance is a quadratic equation of pressure having unknown velocity, the viscous resistance and the inertia resistance of the perforated plate are obtained from the relationship between pressure and speed. Thirdly, by using the calculated resistance values, the values are substituted into the flat plate implemented as a two-dimensional porous media, and the accuracy is verified by comparing the pressure drop and the velocity change. Fourthly, the pressure drop and velocity change in the whole strainer are analyzed by using the resistance values obtained on the perforated plate in the actual whole strainer model. Using the porous media technique, it is found that pressure drop and velocity change can be predicted in relatively short time without modeling the overall shape of the filter. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Valve Center from the Regional Innovation Center(RIC) Program of Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy (MOTIE).

Keywords: strainer, porous media, CFD, numerical analysis

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Authors: Emmanuel Olugbenga Fakoya

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The study examined the perceived impact of climate change on the livelihood of arable crop farmers in Ipokia Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria. Multistage sampling technique was used to select 80 arable crop farmers in the study area. Data collected were analyzed using percentages, frequencies and Chi square analysis. The result showed that 63.8 percent of the respondents were male while 55.0 percent were married. Less than half (30.0 percent) of the respondents were between the age bracket of 41-50 years and 50.0 percent had 6-10 household size. Furthermore, majority (40.0 percent) of the arable crop farmers farmed on an inherited land and 51.3 percent had 2-3 hectares of land. Majority (38.8 percent) of the farmers intercrop maize with cassava and maize with yam. Various strategies adapted to reduce the effect of climate change on their crop and livelihood include: crop rotation (53.8 percent), planting of leguminous crop (35.0 percent), application of organic fertilizers (45.0 percent), mulching (56.3 percent) and by planting drought resistance crops (46.5 percent). Reported among the effects of climate change on crop and farmers’ livelihood were: discoloration of crop leave (63.8 percent), increase infestation of pests and diseases (58.8 percent) and reduction of crop yield (60.0 percent). Chi- square analysis showed significant relationship between impact of climate change on arable crop production and thus famers’ livelihood. It was concluded from the study that climate change is an impinging factor that seriously affect arable crop production and hence farmers’ livelihood despite coping strategies to minimize its effect. It was however recommended that Agricultural policies and practices that could minimize or eliminate its effect should be seriously enacted to boost production and increase farmers’ livelihood.

Keywords: agricultural extension, extension agent, private sector, perception

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Authors: Waheed O. Majekodunmi

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Climate change is a real global phenomenon and an unquestionable threat to our quest for a healthy and livable planet. It is now regarded as potentially the most monumental environmental challenge people and the planet will be confronted with over the next centuries. Expectedly, climate change mitigation was one of the central themes of COP 28. Despite contributing the least to climate change, Africa is and remains the hardest hit by the negative consequences of climate change including poor growth performance. Currently, it is being hypothesized that the high level of vulnerability and exposure to climate-related disasters, low adaptive capacity against global warming and high mitigation costs of climate change across the continent could be linked to the recent abysmal economic performance of African countries, especially in oil-producing countries where greenhouse gas emissions, is potentially more prevalent. This paper examines the impact of climate change on the economic performance of selected oil-producing countries in Africa using evidence from Nigeria, Algeria and Angola. The objective of the study is to determine whether or not climate change influences the economic performance of oil-producing countries in Africa by examining the nexus between economic growth and climate-related variables. The study seeks to investigate the effect of climate change on the pace of economic growth in African oil-producing countries. To achieve the research objectives, this study utilizes a quantitative approach by using historical and current secondary data sets to determine the relationship between climate-related variables and economic growth variables in the selected countries. The study employed numbers, percentages, tables and trend graphs to explain the trends or common patterns between climate change, economic growth and determinants of economic growth: governance effectiveness, infrastructure, macroeconomic stability and regulatory efficiency. Results from the empirical analysis of data show that the trends of economic growth and climate-related variables in the selected oil-producing countries are in the opposite directions as the increasing share of renewable energy sources in total energy consumption and the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions per capita in the oil-producing countries did not translate to higher economic growth. Further findings show that annual surface temperatures in the selected countries do not share similar trends with the food imports ratio and GDP per capita annual growth rate suggesting that climate change does not impact significantly agricultural productivity and economic growth in oil-producing countries in Africa. Annual surface temperature was also found to not share a similar pattern with governance effectiveness, macroeconomic stability and regulatory efficiency reinforcing the claim that some economic growth variables are independent of climate change. The policy implication of this research is that oil-producing African countries need to focus more on improving the macroeconomic environment and streamlining governance and institutional processes to boost their economic performance before considering the adoption of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Keywords: climate change, climate vulnerability, economic growth, greenhouse gas emissions per capita, oil-producing countries, share of renewable energy in total energy consumption

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Authors: Ovais S. Qadri, Abhaya K. Srivastava

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Present experiments were carried to study the drying kinetics and quality of microwave foam-mat dried guava powder. Guava pulp was microwave foam mat dried using 8% egg albumin as foaming agent and then dried at microwave power 480W, 560W, 640W, 720W and 800W, foam thickness 3mm, 5mm and 7mm and inlet air temperature of 40˚C and 50˚C. Weight loss was used to estimate change in drying rate with respect to time. Powdered samples were analysed for various physicochemical quality parameters viz. acidity, pH, TSS, colour change and ascorbic acid content. Statistical analysis using three-way ANOVA revealed that sample of 5mm foam thickness dried at 800W and 50˚C was the best with 0.3584% total acid, 3.98 pH, 14min drying time, 8˚Brix TSS, 3.263 colour change and 154.762mg/100g ascorbic acid content.

Keywords: foam mat drying, foam mat guava, guava powder, microwave drying

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Authors: Cuong V Nguyen, Ralph Horne, John Fien, France Cheong

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Social vulnerability to climate change is increasingly being acknowledged, and proposals to measure and manage it are emerging. Building upon this work, this paper proposes an approach to social vulnerability assessment using a new mechanism to aggregate and account for causal relationships among components of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). To operationalize this index, the authors propose a means to develop an appropriate primary dataset, through application of a specifically-designed household survey questionnaire. The data collection and analysis, including calibration and calculation of the SVI is demonstrated through application in case study city in central coastal Vietnam. The calculation of SVI at the fine-grained local neighbourhood scale provides high resolution in vulnerability assessment, and also obviates the need for secondary data, which may be unavailable or problematic, particularly at the local scale in developing countries. The SVI household survey is underpinned by the results of a Delphi survey, an in-depth interview and focus group discussions with local environmental professionals and community members. The research reveals inherent limitations of existing SVIs but also indicates the potential for their use in assessing social vulnerability and making decisions associated with responding to climate change at the local scale.

Keywords: climate change, local scale, social vulnerability, social vulnerability index

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Authors: Sujit Kumar Pradhan, Anil Kumar, Vijay Kumar

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The testing process of the software during the software development time is a crucial step as it makes the software more efficient and dependable. To estimate software’s reliability through the mean value function, many software reliability growth models (SRGMs) were developed under the assumption that operating and testing environments are the same. Practically, it is not true because when the software works in a natural field environment, the reliability of the software differs. This article discussed an SRGM comprising change-point and imperfect debugging in a simulated testing environment. Later on, we extended it in a multi-release direction. Initially, the software was released to the market with few features. According to the market’s demand, the software company upgraded the current version by adding new features as time passed. Therefore, we have proposed a generalized multi-release SRGM where change-point and imperfect debugging concepts have been addressed in a simulated testing environment. The failure-increasing rate concept has been adopted to determine the change point for each software release. Based on nine goodness-of-fit criteria, the proposed model is validated on two real datasets. The results demonstrate that the proposed model fits the datasets better. We have also discussed the optimal release time of the software through a cost model by assuming that the testing and debugging costs are time-dependent.

Keywords: software reliability growth models, non-homogeneous Poisson process, multi-release software, mean value function, change-point, environmental factors

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Authors: F. Moghtaderi, M. Burke, J. Troelsen

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There has been a significant decline in active travel as well as the massive increase use of car-dependent travel mode in many countries during past two decades. Evidential risks for people’s physical and mental health problems are followed by this increased use of motorized travel mode. These problems range from overweight and obesity to increasing air pollution. In response to these rising concerns, local councils and other interested organizations around the world have introduced a variety of initiatives regarding reduce the dominance of cars for the daily journeys. However, the nature of these kinds of interventions, which related to the human behavior, make lots of complexities. People’s travel behavior and changing this behavior, has two different aspects. People’s attitudes and perceptions toward the sustainable and healthy modes of travel, and motorized travel modes (especially private car use) is one these two aspects. The other one related to people’s behavior change processes. There are no comprehensive model in order to guide policy interventions to increase the level of succeed of such interventions. A comprehensive theoretical framework is required in accordance to facilitate and guide the processes of data collection and analysis to achieve the best possible guidelines for policy makers. Regarding this gaps in the travel behavior change research, this paper attempted to identify and suggest a multidimensional framework in order to facilitate planning interventions. A structured mixed-method is suggested regarding the expand the scope and improve the analytic power of the result according to the complexity of human behavior. In order to recognize people’s attitudes, a theory with the focus on people’s attitudes towards a particular travel behavior was needed. The literature around the theory of planned behavior (TPB) was the most useful, and had been proven to be a good predictor of behavior change. Another aspect of the research, related to the people’s decision-making process regarding explore guidelines for the further interventions. Therefore, a theory was needed to facilitate and direct the interventions’ design. The concept of the transtheoretical model of behavior change (TTM) was used regarding reach a set of useful guidelines for the further interventions with the aim to increase active travel and sustainable modes of travel. Consequently, a combination of these two theories (TTM and TPB) had presented as an appropriate concept to identify and design implemented travel behavior change interventions.

Keywords: behavior change theories, theoretical framework, travel behavior change interventions, urban research

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Authors: Tayib Bromand, Keisuke Sato

Abstract:

This paper presents the introduction to current water balance and climate change assessment in the Kabul river basin. The historical and future impacts of climate change on different components of water resources and hydrology in the Kabul river basin. The eastern part of Afghanistan, the Kabul river basin was chosen due to rapid population growth and land degradation to quantify the potential influence of Gobal Climate Change on its hydrodynamic characteristics. Luck of observed meteorological data was the main limitation of present research, few existed precipitation stations in the plain area of Kabul basin selected to compare with TRMM precipitation records, the result has been evaluated satisfactory based on regression and normal ratio methods. So the TRMM daily precipitation and NCEP temperature data set applied in the SWAT model to evaluate water balance for 2008 to 2012. Middle of the twenty – first century (2064) selected as the target period to assess impacts of climate change on hydrology aspects in the Kabul river basin. For this purpose three emission scenarios, A2, A1B and B1 and four GCMs, such as MIROC 3.2 (Med), CGCM 3.1 (T47), GFDL-CM2.0 and CNRM-CM3 have been selected, to estimate the future initial conditions of the proposed model. The outputs of the model compared and calibrated based on (R2) satisfactory. The assessed hydrodynamic characteristics and precipitation pattern. The results show that there will be significant impacts on precipitation patter such as decreasing of snowfall in the mountainous area of the basin in the Winter season due to increasing of 2.9°C mean annual temperature and land degradation due to deforestation.

Keywords: climate change, emission scenarios, hydrological components, Kabul river basin, SWAT model

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Authors: Muhammad Imran Din

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The aim of this study was to understand the interaction between multi-walled carbon nano tubes (MCNTs) and anticancer agents and evaluate the drug-loading ability of MCNTs. Batch adsorption experiments were carried out for adsorption of 5-Fluorouracil (5-FL) using MCNTs. The effect of various operating variables, viz., adsorbent dosage, pH, contact time and temperature for adsorption of 5-Fluorouracil (5-FL) has been studied. The Freundlich adsorption model was successfully employed to describe the adsorption process. It was found that the pseudo-second-order mechanism is predominant and the overall rate of the 5-Fluorouracil (5-FL) adsorption process appears to be controlled by the more than one-step. Thermodynamic parameters such as free energy change (ΔG°), enthalpy change (ΔH°) and entropy change (ΔS°) have been calculated respectively, revealed the spontaneous, endothermic and feasible nature of adsorption process. The results showed that carbon nano tubes were able to form supra molecular complexes with 5-Fluorouracil (5-FL) by π-π stacking and possessed favorable loading properties as drug carriers.

Keywords: drug, adsorption, anticancer, 5-Fluorouracil (5-FL)

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Authors: William Li

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Lane-change path planning is a crucial and yet complex task in autonomous driving. The traditional path planning approach based on a system of carefully-crafted rules to cover various driving scenarios becomes unwieldy as more and more rules are added to deal with exceptions and corner cases. This paper proposes to divide the entire path planning to two stages. In the first stage the ego vehicle travels longitudinally in the source lane to reach a safe state. In the second stage the ego vehicle makes lateral lane-change maneuver to the target lane. The paper derives the safe state conditions based on lateral lane-change maneuver calculation to ensure collision free in the second stage. To determine the acceleration sequence that minimizes the time to reach a safe state in the first stage, the paper proposes three schemes, namely, kinetic model based optimization, deep reinforcement learning, and 5G vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications. The paper investigates these schemes via simulation. The model-based optimization is sensitive to the model assumptions. The deep reinforcement learning is more flexible in handling scenarios beyond the model assumed by the optimization. The 5G V2V eliminates uncertainty in predicting future behaviors of surrounding vehicles by sharing driving intents and enabling cooperative driving.

Keywords: lane change, path planning, autonomous driving, deep reinforcement learning, 5G, V2V communications, connected vehicles

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Authors: Dorota M. Michalak

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The agricultural sector, due to the growing demand for food and over-exploitation of the natural environment, contributes to the deepening of climate change, on the one hand, and on the other hand, shrinking freshwater resources, as a negative effect of climate change, threaten the food security of each country. Therefore, adaptation measures to climate change should take into account effective water management and seek solutions ensuring food production at an unchanged or higher level, while not burdening the environment and not contributing to the worsening of the negative consequences of climate change. The problems of Poland's water management result not only from relatively small, natural water resources but to a large extent on the low efficiency of their use. Appropriate agricultural practices and state solutions in this field can contribute to achieving significant benefits in terms of economical water management in agriculture, providing a greater amount of water that could also be used for other purposes, including for purposes related to environmental protection. The aim of the article is to determine the level of use of water resources in Polish agriculture and the advancement of measures aimed at adapting Polish agriculture in the field of water management to climate change. The study provides knowledge about Polish legal regulations and water management tools, the shaping of water policy of Polish agriculture against the background of EU countries and other sources of energy, and measures supporting Polish agricultural holdings in the effective management of water resources run by state budget institutions. In order to achieve the above-mentioned goals, the author used research tools such as the analysis of existing sources and a survey conducted among five groups of entities, i.e. agricultural advisory centers and departments, agricultural, rural and environmental protection departments, regional water management boards, provincial agricultural chambers and restructuring and modernization of agriculture. The main conclusion of the analyses carried out is the low use of water in Polish agriculture in relation to other EU countries, other sources of intake in Poland, as well as irrigation. The analysis allows us to observe another problem, which is the lack of reporting and data collection, which is extremely important from the point of view of the effectiveness of adaptation measures to climate change. The results obtained from the survey indicate a very low level of support for government institutions in the implementation of adaptation measures to climate change and the water management of Polish farms. Some of the basic problems of the adaptation policy to change climate with regard to water management in Polish agriculture include a lack of knowledge regarding climate change, the possibilities of adapting, the available tools or ways to rationalize the use of water resources. It also refers to the lack of ordering procedures and the separation of responsibility with a proper territorial unit, non-functioning channels of information flow and practically low effects.

Keywords: water management, adaptation policy, agriculture, climate change

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Authors: T. Garba, Y. Y. Babanyara, T. O. Quddus, A. K. Mukatari

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Human activities make environmental parameters in order to keep on changing globally. While some changes are necessary and beneficial to flora and fauna, others have serious consequences threatening the survival of their natural habitat if these changes are not properly monitored and mitigated. In-situ assessments are characterized by many challenges due to the absence of time series data and sometimes areas to be observed or monitored are inaccessible. Satellites Remote Sensing provide us with the digital images of same geographic areas within a pre-defined interval. This makes it possible to monitor and detect changes of environmental phenomena. This paper, therefore, reviewed the commonly use changes detection techniques globally such as image differencing, image rationing, image regression, vegetation index difference, change vector analysis, principal components analysis, multidate classification, post-classification comparison, and visual interpretation. The paper concludes by suggesting the use of more than one technique.

Keywords: environmental phenomena, change detection, monitor, techniques

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Authors: Roozbeh Kardooni, Ahmad Hossein Meidari, Sumiani Binti Yusoff, Fatimah Binti Kari,

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The public opinion on environmental issue was analyzed by means of a survey implemented in Kedah located in the northwestern part of Peninsular Malaysia (West Malaysia). This work explores public opinions regarding environmental issue such as climate change, green technology and renewable energy in Kedah. Probability sampling and a stratified technique were used to conduct a survey with subjects aged 20 years and over with higher education qualifications. The results shows that the level of concern regarding climate change in Kedah is high and majority of Kedah citizens are concerned about climate change and have heard about green technology. However, only 40% people in this city have used green products. The findings of this study also show that percent use of green products is highest among those who are familiar with such products. It is apparent from study finding that economic barriers and non-economic barriers both play a role in impeding the development of renewable energy policies in Kedah. This finding can be explained by the high price of renewable energy products, lack of knowledge about government policies, and ineffective programs and initiatives.

Keywords: public opinion, climate change, green technology, Kedah

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Authors: Adriana Martínez-Arias, John Josephraj Selvaraj, Luis Octavio González-Salcedo

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In the Colombian Pacific, Dorado fish (Coryphaena hippurus L.) fisheries is of great commercial interest. However, its habitat and fisheries may be affected by climatic change especially by the actual increase in sea surface temperature. Hence, it is of interest to study the dynamics of these species fishing zones. In this study, we developed Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models to predict Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE) as an indicator of species abundance. The model was based on four oceanographic variables (Chlorophyll a, Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Level Anomaly and Bathymetry) derived from satellite data. CPUE datasets for model training and cross-validation were obtained from logbooks of commercial fishing vessel. Sea surface Temperature for Colombian Pacific were projected under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CPUE maps were created. Our results indicated that an increase in sea surface temperature reduces the potential fishing zones of this species in the Colombian Pacific. We conclude that ANN is a reliable tool for simulation of climate change effects on the potential fishing zones. This research opens a future agenda for other species that have been affected by climate change.

Keywords: climatic change, artificial neural networks, dorado fish, CPUE

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Authors: Rabia Munsaf Khan, Eshrat Fatima

Abstract:

The analysis of the spatial extent and temporal change of vegetation cover using remotely sensed data is of critical importance to agricultural sciences. Pakistan, being an agricultural country depends on this resource as it makes 70% of the GDP. The case study is of Lal Suhanra National Park, which is not only the biggest forest reserve of Pakistan but also of Asia. The study is performed using different temporal images of Landsat. Also, the results of Landsat are cross-checked by using Sentinel-2 imagery as it has both higher spectral and spatial resolution. Vegetation can easily be detected using NDVI which is a common and widely used index. It is an important vegetation index, widely applied in research on global environmental and climatic change. The images are then classified to observe the change occurred over 15 years. Vegetation cover maps of 2000 and 2016 are used to generate the map of vegetation change detection for the respective years and to find out the changing pattern of vegetation cover. Also, the NDVI values aided in the detection of percentage decrease in vegetation cover. The study reveals that vegetation cover of the area has decreased significantly during the year 2000 and 2016.

Keywords: Landsat, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), sentinel 2, Greenland monitoring

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