Search results for: climate change risk

Authors: Prasansha Kumari

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This paper intends to identify and analyze customer adoption and attitudes towards mobile banking facilities. The study uses six perceived characteristics of innovation that can be used to form a favorable or unfavorable attitude toward an innovation, namely: Relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trailability, risk, and observability. Collected data were analyzed using Pearson Chi-Square test. The results showed that mobile bank users were predominantly males. There is a growing trend among young, educated customers towards converting to mobile banking in Sri Lanka. The research outcomes suggested that all the six factors are statistically highly significant in influencing mobile banking adoption and attitude formation towards mobile banking in Sri Lanka. The major reasons for adopting mobile banking services are the accessibility and availability of services regardless of time and place. Over the 75 percent of the respondents mentioned that savings in time and effort and low financial costs of conducting mobile banking were advantageous. Issue of security was found to be the most important factor that motivated consumer adoption and attitude formation towards mobile banking. Main barriers to mobile banking were the lack of technological skills, the traditional cash‐carry banking culture, and the lack of awareness and insufficient guidance to using mobile banking.

Keywords: compatibility, complexity, mobile banking, observability, risk

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Authors: Nebiyou Masebo

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The severities of land degradation in southern Ethiopia has been increasing due to high population density, replacement of an age-old agroforestry (AF) based agricultural system with monocropping. The consequences of these activities combined with climate change have been impaired soil biota, soil organic carbon (SOC), soil glomalin, soil aggregation and aggregate stability. The AF systems could curb these problems due it is an ecologically and economically sustainable. This study was aimed to determine the effect of agroforestry practices (AFPs) on soil glomalin, soil aggregate stability (SAS), and aggregate association with SOC. Soil samples (from two depth level: 0-30 & 30-60 cm) and woody species were collected from homegarden based agroforestry practice (HAFP), cropland based agroforestry practice (ClAFP), woodlot based agroforestry practice (WlAFP) and trees on soil and water conservation based agroforestry practice (TSWAFP) using systematic sampling. In this study, both easily extractable glomalin related soil protein (EEGRSP) and total glomalin related soil protein (TGRSP) were significantly (p<0.05) higher in HAFP compared to others, with decreasing order HAFP>WlAFP>TSWAFP>ClAFP at upper surface but in subsurface in decreasing order: WlAFP>HAFP>TSWAFP>ClAFP. On the other hand, the macroaggregate fraction of AFPs ranged from 22.64-36.51% where the lowest was in ClAFP, while the highest was in HAFP, moreover, the order for subsurface was also the same but SAS decreased with the increasing of soil depths. The micro-aggregate fraction ranged from 15.9–24.56%, where the lowest was in HAFP, but the highest was in ClAFP. Besides, the association of OC with both macro-and micro-aggregates was greatest in HAFP and followed by WlAFP. The findings also showed that both glomalin and SAS were significantly high with woody species diversity and richness. Thus, AFP with good management practice can play role on maintenance of biodiversity, glomalin content and other soil quality parameters with future implications for a stable ecosystem.

Keywords: agroforestry, soil aggregate stability, glomalin, aggregate-associated carbon, HAFP, ClAFP, WlAFP, TSWAFP.

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Authors: Harshit Vallecha, Prabha Bhola

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‘Energy for all’, is a global issue of concern for the past many years. Despite the number of technological advancements and innovations, significant numbers of people are living without access to electricity around the world. India, an emerging economy, tops the list of nations having the maximum number of residents living off the grid, thus raising global attention in past few years to provide clean and sustainable energy access solutions to all of its residents. It is evident from developed economies that centralized planning and electrification alone is not sufficient for meeting energy security. Implementation of off-grid and consumer-driven energy models like Decentralized Renewable Energy (DRE) systems have played a significant role in meeting the national energy demand in developed nations. Cases of DRE systems have been reported in developing countries like India for the past few years. This paper attempts to profile the status of DRE projects in the Indian context with their scope and relevance to ensure universal electrification. Diversified cases of DRE projects, particularly solar, biomass and micro hydro are identified in different Indian states. Critical factors affecting the sustainability of DRE projects are extracted with their interlinkages in the context of developers, beneficiaries and promoters involved in such projects. Socio-techno-economic indicators are identified through similar cases in the context of DRE projects. Exploratory factor analysis is performed to evaluate the critical sustainability factors followed by regression analysis to establish the relationship between the dependent and independent factors. The generated EFA-Regression model provides a basis to develop the sustainability and replicability framework for broader coverage of DRE projects in developing nations in order to attain the goal of universal electrification with least carbon emissions.

Keywords: climate change, decentralized generation, electricity access, renewable energy

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Authors: Man-Hong Lai, Dinusha S. Gunawardena, Kok-Sing Lim, Harith Ahmad

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In this paper, we have reported birefringence manipulation in regenerated high-birefringent fiber Bragg grating (RPMG) by using CO2 laser annealing method. The results indicate that the birefringence of RPMG remains unchanged after CO2 laser annealing followed by a slow cooling process, but reduced after the fast cooling process (~5.6×10-5). After a series of annealing procedures with different cooling rates, the obtained results show that slower the cooling rate, higher the birefringence of RPMG. The volume, thermal expansion coefficient (TEC) and glass transition temperature (Tg) change of stress applying part in RPMG during the cooling process are responsible for the birefringence change. Therefore, these findings are important to the RPMG sensor in high and dynamic temperature environment. The measuring accuracy, range and sensitivity of RPMG sensor are greatly affected by its birefringence value. This work also opens up a new application of CO2 laser for fiber annealing and birefringence modification.

Keywords: birefringence, CO2 laser annealing, regenerated gratings, thermal stress

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Authors: Juliza Hidayati, Yesie M. Sinuhaji, Sawarni Hasibuan

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A company producing drinking water through many incompatibility issues that affect supply chain performance. The study was conducted to determine the factors that affect the performance of the supply chain and improve it. To obtain the dominant factors affecting the performance of the supply chain used Analytic Network Process, while to improve performance is done by using Kaizen. Factors affecting the performance of the supply chain to be a reference to identify the cause of the non-conformance. Results weighting using ANP indicates that the dominant factor affecting the level of performance is the precision of the number of shipments (15%), the ability of the fulfillment of the booking amount (12%), and the number of rejected products when signing (12%). Incompatibility of the factors that affect the performance of the supply chain are identified, so that found the root cause of the problem is most dominant. Based on the weight of Risk Priority Number (RPN) gained the most dominant root cause of the problem, namely the poorly maintained engine, the engine worked for three shifts, machine parts that are not contained in the plant. Improvements then performed using the Kaizen method of systematic and sustainable.

Keywords: analytic network process, booking amount, risk priority number, supply chain performance

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Authors: Olivier Mesly

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This article examines the likelihood of deception on the part of borrowers wishing to obtain credit from institutional or private lenders. In our first study, we identify five explanatory variables that account for nearly forty percent of the propensity to act deceitfully: a poor credit history, debt, risky behavior, and to a much lesser degree, irrational behavior and disconnection from the bundle of needs, goals, and preferences. For the second study, we remodeled the initial questionnaire to adapt it to the needs of institutional bankers and borrowers, especially those that engage in money on-line peer-to-peer lending, a growing business fueled by the COVID pandemic. We find that the three key psychological variables that help to indirectly predict the likelihood of deceitful behaviors and possible default on loan reimbursement, i.e., risky behaviors, ir-rationality, and dis-connection, interact with each other to form a loop. This study presents two benefits: first, we provide evidence that it is to some degree possible to tighten control over lending practices. Second, we offer a pragmatic tool: a questionnaire, that lenders can use or adapt to gauge potential borrowers’ deceit, notably by combining their results with standard hard-data measures of risk.

Keywords: bundle of needs, default, debt, deception, risk, peer-to-peer lending

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Authors: Esmaeil Khodadad

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The environment is one of the hotbeds of global politics. It is only necessary to emphasize the human being on this word, and to take it as a serious political-social debate, so as to prevent the collapse of the harmony of the system of nature governing the earth, the landlord and its creatures. Earth, water and humans are three interconnected arms that should be kept in balance and harmony. The collapse of one of these arms disrupts the entire framework of the philosophy of life on earth. Environmental issues were found worldwide in the late 20th century and were given serious attention by experts. At the same time, international environmental issues have brought to the forefront the challenges of international relations. These ideas have introduced environmental issues and some of the main features of the causes and consequences of global environmental change, as well as ways to deal with this change Has been discussed. The objectives of this study are environmental issues in the world and in Iran, and it shows what factors contribute to the formation of spatial systems and its supporting systems, and finally what the goals should be about the ideal state of the future of the global environment and its issues. The information required for this research is a combination of documentary, descriptive-analytical and library methods.

Keywords: environment, environmental issues, flower, oeacen

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Authors: Riyadh Alsultani, Ali Majdi

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It is necessary to develop a design methodology that includes the possibility of seismic events occurring in a region, the vulnerability of the civil hydraulic structure, and the effects of the occurrence hazard on society, environment, and economy in order to evaluate the flood and earthquake risks of coastal bridge networks. This paper presents a design approach for the assessment of the risk and sustainability of coastal bridge networks under time-variant flood-earthquake conditions. The social, environmental, and economic indicators of the network are used to measure its sustainability. These consist of anticipated loss, downtime, energy waste, and carbon dioxide emissions. The design process takes into account the possibility of happening in a set of flood and earthquake scenarios that represent the local seismic activity. Based on the performance of each bridge as determined by fragility assessments, network linkages are measured. The network's connections and bridges' damage statuses after an earthquake scenario determine the network's sustainability and danger. The sustainability measures' temporal volatility and the danger of structural degradation are both highlighted. The method is shown using a transportation network in Baghdad, Iraq.

Keywords: sustainability, Coastal bridge networks, flood-earthquake risk, structural design

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Authors: Fatma Romeh, Shiferaw Gurmu

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This paper examines the impact of female education on fertility, using the change in length of primary schooling in Egypt in 1988-89 as the source of exogenous variation in schooling. In particular, beginning in 1988, children had to attend primary school for only five years rather than six years. This change was applicable to all individuals born on or after October 1977. Using a nonparametric regression discontinuity approach, we compare education and fertility of women born just before and after October 1977. The results show that female education significantly reduces the number of children born per woman and delays the time until first birth. Applying a robust regression discontinuity approach, however, the impact of education on the number of children is no longer significant. The impact on the timing of first birth remained significant under the robust approach. Each year of female education postponed childbearing by three months, on average.

Keywords: Egypt, female education, fertility, robust regression discontinuity

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Authors: Jae Woong Sull, Sun Ha Jee

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High-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels are associated with decreased risk of coronary artery disease. Several genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for HDL cholesterol levels have implicated cholesterol ester transfer protein (CETP) as possibly causal. We tested for the association between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CETP gene and HDL cholesterol levels in Korean population. Subjects were selected from the Korean Metabolic Syndrome Research Initiative study in the Bundang-Gu area. A total of 2,304 individuals from Bundang-Gu were recruited in 2008. Other subjects were selected from the Severance Hospital (N=4,294). SNP rs6499861 in the CETP gene was associated with mean HDL cholesterol levels (effect per allele -2.044 mg/dL, p=7.23×10-7). Subjects with the CG/GG genotype had a 1.46 -fold (range 1.24–1.72-fold) higher risk of having abnormal HDL cholesterol levels (<40 mg/dL) than subjects with the CC genotype. When analyzed by gender, the association of CETP was stronger in women than in men. When analyzed by physical activity behavior, the association with CETP was much stronger in male subjects with low physical activity (OR=1.54, 95% CI: 1.23-1.92, P=0.0001) than in male subjects with high physical activity. This study clearly demonstrates that genetic variants in CETP influence HDL cholesterol levels in Korean adults.

Keywords: CETP, HDL cholesterol, physical activity, polymorphisms

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Authors: Sulaiman Rabiu, Muazu Gusau Abubakar, Jafar Usman Zakari

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The consumption of meat is of great importance as it provides a good source of proteins and significant amount of essential trace element to the body. However, contamination of meat and meat products with heavy metals is becoming a serious threat to food safety and public health. Therefore, the present study is aimed to evaluate the concentration of some heavy metals in muscles and entrails of free-ranged cattle, sheep and goats. A total of sixty (60) fresh samples of muscles, liver, kidney, small intestines and stomach of free ranged cattle, sheep and goats were collected from abattoirs of different goldmine communities of Anka, Bukkuyum, Maru andTalata-Mafara Local Government Areas of Zamfara State, Nigeria. The samples were digested using 10 mL of a mixed 70% high grade concentration of HNO₃ and 65% HCl (4:1 v/v); the mixture was heated until dense fumes disappeared forming a clear transparent solution and diluted to 50 mL with deionized water. Actual concentrations of Cd, Cr, Cu, Co, As, Ni, Mn, Pb and Zn were determined using Microwave Plasma Atomic Emission Spectrophotometer (MP-AES). From the results obtained, goat liver had the highest mean concentration of lead, arsenic, cobalt and manganese (12.43± 0.31, 14.25±0.32, 3.47± 0.86 and 12.68± 0.92 mg/kg respectively) while goat kidney had the highest concentration of copper and zinc (10.08±0.61 and 24.16±1.30 mg/kg respectively). The highest concentrations of cadmium and nickel were recorded in sheep kidney (7.75± 0.65 and 2.08±0.10 mg/kg respectively). Cattle muscles had the highest chromium concentration than all the organs analysed. The target hazard quotients (THQs) for all the metals were below 1.0, but TR which is a risk indices for carcinogenicity indicates an alarming result that requires stringent control to protect public health.Therefore, intensive public health awareness on the risk associated with contamination of heavy metals in meat should be advocated.

Keywords: contamination, goldmine, heavy metals, meat

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Authors: Ruchi Sharma, Rajasekhar Balasubramanian

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Motor vehicles emit a number of air pollutants, among which fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) is of major concern in cities with high population density due to its negative impacts on air quality and human health. Typically, people spend more than 80% of their time indoors. Consequently, human exposure to traffic-related PM₂.₅ in indoor environments has received considerable attention. Most of the public residential buildings in tropical countries are designed for natural ventilation where indoor air quality tends to be strongly affected by the migration of air pollutants of outdoor origin. However, most of the previously reported traffic-related PM₂.₅ exposure assessment studies relied on ambient PM₂.₅ concentrations and thus, the health impact of traffic-related PM₂.₅ on occupants in naturally ventilated buildings remains largely unknown. Therefore, a systematic field study was conducted to assess indoor human exposure to traffic-related PM₂.₅ with and without mitigation measures in a typical naturally ventilated residential apartment situated near a road carrying a large volume of traffic. Three PM₂.₅ exposure scenarios were simulated in this study, i.e., Case 1: keeping all windows open with a ceiling fan on as per the usual practice, Case 2: keeping all windows fully closed as a mitigation measure, and Case 3: keeping all windows fully closed with the operation of a portable indoor air cleaner as an additional mitigation measure. The indoor to outdoor (I/O) ratios for PM₂.₅ mass concentrations were assessed and the effectiveness of using the indoor air cleaner was quantified. Additionally, potential human health risk based on the bioavailable fraction of toxic trace elements was also estimated for the three cases in order to identify a suitable mitigation measure for reducing PM₂.₅ exposure indoors. Traffic-related PM₂.₅ levels indoors exceeded the air quality guidelines (12 µg/m³) in Case 1, i.e., under natural ventilation conditions due to advective flow of outdoor air into the indoor environment. However, while using the indoor air cleaner, a significant reduction (p < 0.05) in the PM₂.₅ exposure levels was noticed indoors. Specifically, the effectiveness of the air cleaner in terms of reducing indoor PM₂.₅ exposure was estimated to be about 74%. Moreover, potential human health risk assessment also indicated a substantial reduction in potential health risk while using the air cleaner. This is the first study of its kind that evaluated the indoor human exposure to traffic-related PM₂.₅ and identified a suitable exposure mitigation measure that can be implemented in densely populated cities to realize health benefits.

Keywords: fine particulate matter, indoor air cleaner, potential human health risk, vehicular emissions

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Authors: Lahcen Daoudi, Fatima Zahra Omdi, Abldelali Gourfi

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In Morocco, as in most Mediterranean countries, water scarcity is a common situation because of low and unevenly distributed rainfall. The expansions of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and industrial areas and tourist resorts, contribute to an increase of water demand. Therefore in the 1960s Morocco embarked on an ambitious program to increase the number of dams to boost water retention capacity. However, the decrease in the capacity of these reservoirs caused by sedimentation is a major problem; it is estimated at 75 million m3/year. Dams and reservoirs became unusable for their intended purposes due to sedimentation in large rivers that result from soil erosion. Soil erosion presents an important driving force in the process affecting the landscape. It has become one of the most serious environmental problems that raised much interest throughout the world. Monitoring soil erosion risk is an important part of soil conservation practices. The estimation of soil loss risk is the first step for a successful control of water erosion. The aim of this study is to estimate the soil loss risk and its spatial distribution in the different fields of Morocco and to prioritize areas for soil conservation interventions. The approach followed is the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) using remote sensing and GIS, which is the most popular empirically based model used globally for erosion prediction and control. This model has been tested in many agricultural watersheds in the world, particularly for large-scale basins due to the simplicity of the model formulation and easy availability of the dataset. The spatial distribution of the annual soil loss was elaborated by the combination of several factors: rainfall erosivity, soil erodability, topography, and land cover. The average annual soil loss estimated in several basins watershed of Morocco varies from 0 to 50t/ha/year. Watersheds characterized by high-erosion-vulnerability are located in the North (Rif Mountains) and more particularly in the Central part of Morocco (High Atlas Mountains). This variation of vulnerability is highly correlated to slope variation which indicates that the topography factor is the main agent of soil erosion within these basin catchments. These results could be helpful for the planning of natural resources management and for implementing sustainable long-term management strategies which are necessary for soil conservation and for increasing over the projected economic life of the dam implemented.

Keywords: soil loss, RUSLE, GIS-remote sensing, watershed, Morocco

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Authors: Mohamed Hafid, Marcel Lacroix

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This study presents an inverse analysis for predicting the thermal conductivities and the heat flux of a high-temperature metallurgical reactor simultaneously. Once these thermal parameters are predicted, the time-varying thickness of the protective phase-change bank that covers the inside surface of the brick walls of a metallurgical reactor can be calculated. The enthalpy method is used to solve the melting/solidification process of the protective bank. The inverse model rests on the Levenberg-Marquardt Method (LMM) combined with the Broyden method (BM). A statistical analysis for the thermal parameter estimation is carried out. The effect of the position of the temperature sensors, total number of measurements and measurement noise on the accuracy of inverse predictions is investigated. Recommendations are made concerning the location of temperature sensors.

Keywords: inverse heat transfer, phase change, metallurgical reactor, Levenberg–Marquardt method, Broyden method, bank thickness

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Authors: Swati Sundararajan, Asit B. Samui, Prashant S. Kulkarni

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Polymeric ionic liquids combine the properties of ionic liquids and polymers into a single material which has gained massive interest in the recent years. These ionic liquids offer several advantages such as high phase change enthalpy, wide temperature range, chemical and thermal stability, non-volatility and the ability to make them task-specific. Separation of CO2 is an area of critical importance due to the concerns over greenhouse gasses leading to global warming. Thermal energy storage materials, also known as phase change materials absorb latent heat during fusion process and release the absorbed energy to the surrounding environment during crystallization. These materials retain this property over a number of cycles and therefore, are useful for bridging the gap between energy requirement and use. In an effort to develop materials, which will help in minimizing the growing energy demand and environmental concerns, a series of dicationic poly(ethylene glycol) based polymeric ionic liquids were synthesized. One part of an acrylate of poly(ethylene glycol) was reacted with imidazolium quarternizing agent and the second part was reacted with triazolium quarternizing agent. These two different monomers were then copolymerized to prepare dicationic polymeric ionic liquid. These materials were characterized for solid-liquid phase transition and the enthalpy by using differential scanning calorimetry. The CO2 capture studies were performed on a fabricated setup with varying pressure range from 1-20 atm. The findings regarding the prepared materials, having potential dual applications in the fields of thermal energy storage and CO2 capture, will be discussed in the presentation.

Keywords: CO2 capture, phase change materials, polyethylene glycol, polymeric ionic liquids, thermal energy storage

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Authors: Anna Curtin, Matthew Thibodeau, Heather Buckley

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Water scarcity is characterized by a lack of access to clean and affordable drinking water, as well as water for hygienic and economic needs. The amount of people effected by water scarcity is expected to increase in the coming years due to climate change, population growth, and pollution, amongst other things. In response, scientists are pursuing cost effective drinking water treatment methods, often with a focus on alternative water sources. Desalination of seawater via reverse osmosis is one promising alternative method. Desalination of seawater via reverse osmosis, however, is limited significantly by biofouling of the filtration membrane. Biofouling is the buildup of microorganisms in a biofilm at the water-membrane interface. It clogs the membrane, decreasing the efficiency of filtration, consequently increasing operational and maintenance costs. Although effective, existing chemical treatment methods can damage the membrane, decreasing the lifespan of the membrane; create antibiotic resistance; and cause harm to humans and the environment if they pass through the membrane into the permeate. The current project focuses on applying safer preservatives used in home and personal care products to RO membranes to investigate the biofouling treatment efficacy. Currently, many of these safer preservatives have only been tested on cells in planktonic phase in suspension cultures, not on cells in biofilms. The results of suspension culture tests are not applicable to biofouling scenarios because organisms in planktonic phase in suspension cultures exhibit different morphological, chemical, and metabolic characteristics than those in a biofilm. Testing antifoulant efficacy of safer preservatives on biofilms will provide more applicable results to biofouling on RO membranes. To do this, biofilms will be grown on 96-well-plates and minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC90) and log-reductions will be calculated for various safer preservatives. Results from these tests will be used to guide doses for tests of safer preservatives in a bench-scale RO system.

Keywords: reverse osmosis, biofouling, preservatives, antimicrobial, safer alternative, green chemistry

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Authors: Shosh Shahrabani, Sharon Teitler-Regev, Helena Desivilya Syna, Fotini Voulgaris, Evangelos Tsoukatos, Vitor Ambrosio, Sandra M. Correia Loureiro

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International crises that affect tourism, such as terror attacks, political unrest, and economic crises have become more frequent, and their influence has become broader. The influence of such extreme events depends on their salience in the tourists' awareness. Hence, it is important to understand the mechanisms underlying tourists' selection of travel destinations, especially their perceptions of crisis-related events and the impact of the sociopolitical and economic context in their countries of origin. The current study examined how the socio-political and economic context in the home countries of potential young tourists affected their selection of travel destinations. The objective was to elucidate how the salience of various crises (economic and political) in the tourists' perceptions, due to their experiences at home, color their construal of destinations affected by similar hazards and influence their travel intentions. The study focused on student tourists from Israel, Greece, and Portugal. Today about a fifth of international tourism is based on young people, especially students. These countries were chosen since Greece and Portugal are in the midst of economic crises. In addition, Greece and Portugal have experienced political instability, while Israel has security-related problems (including terrorist incidents). In 2013, a total of 648 students, responded to a questionnaire that included questions concerning attitudes and risk perceptions regarding travel to destinations with various risk hazards as well as socio-demographic details. The results indicate that over half of the Israelis intend to visit Greece or Portugal. The majority of the Portuguese intend to visit Greece, while less than a third of them intend to visit Israel. About half of the Greeks intend to visit Portugal, and most of them do not intend to visit Israel. The results indicate that greater perceived importance of economic crises mitigates the intention to travel to destinations with economic crises for tourists from origin countries that are also marked by economic crises, such as Greece and Portugal. However, for tourists from Israel, a country with a relatively stable economy, issues related to the economy barely affect their intention to travel to the other two countries. The findings also suggest that Greeks and Portuguese who are highly concerned about political unrest are unlikely to select Israel as a tourist destination. In addition, strong apprehension regarding terrorism impedes the intention to travel to destinations marked by terrorist incidents, such as Israel. The current research contributes to the existing literature by highlighting the impact of travelers' personal previous experience with crisis on their risk perceptions and in turn on their intentions to travel to countries with similar risks. Therefore, in a world where such incidents are on the rise, understanding tourists' risk perceptions and behavior and the factors influencing their destination-related decisions are crucial for countries that wish to increase the numbers of incoming tourists.

Keywords: economic crises, political instability, risk perception, young tourists

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Authors: Armaghan Moravej Aleali, Hajieh Shahbazian, Seyed Mahmoud Latifi, Leila Yazdanpanah

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Objective: Metabolic syndrome or insulin resistance syndrome or syndrome X is a collection of abdominal obesity, hypertension, glucose intolerance and lipid abnormalities (elevated triglycerides, elevated LDL, and decrease the amount of HDL). That increases the incidence of diabetes and risk of cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in people over 20 years of Ahvaz according to IDF, ATPIII, Harmonized I and Harmonized II. Material & Methods: A cross-sectional study with a random cluster sampling in six health centers in Ahvaz was done. After obtaining informed consent, questionnaire for each person filled up including demographic data and examinations, including blood pressure in sitting position, weight, height, waist circumference, and waist circumference measurement. Results: From all participating 912 people, (434 (2/47%) male and 478 (2/52%) female) were evaluated. Mean age was 42/27± 14years (44/2±14/26 for male and 40/5±13/5 for female). Prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 22/8%, 28/4%, 30/9% and 16/9% according to ATPIII, IDF, Harmonized I and Harmonized II criteria respectively and increased with age in both sexes. IDF and Harmonized I had most kappa coordination (0/94). Conclusion: The results show a high prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Ahvaz. So, identification of the risk factors should be attempted to prevent metabolic syndrome.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, IDF, ATP III, prevalence

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Authors: Davaakhuu Vandannyam, Amarsaikhan Dashtseren, Oyungoo Badamdorj

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Background: Shift work and extended working hours are increasing in many industries and organization's in the world. Over a 24 hour period, the circadian clock regulates sleep/wake patterns, body temperature, hormone levels, digestion and many other functions. Depending on the time of day or night, the human body is programmed for periods of wakefulness and sleep, high and low body temperature, high and low digestive activity and so on. Shift work is highly prevalent in industrialized societies (>20%) but, when it includes night work, it has pronounced negative effects on sleep, subjective and physiological sleepiness, performance, accident risk, as well as on health outcomes such as cardiovascular disease and certain forms of cancer. Method: In this cross-sectional field study, 634 shift work and day work nurses from a plant were involved, with participation rate of 100% (634 nurses). The general health questionnaire (GHQ-28) and RLS, ESS, ISI, FSS were used to evaluate the level of insomnia, sleepiness, fatigue and restless legs syndrome, respectively. Results: As a result of research on some indicators of health risks caused from work shift, it was proven that prevalence of restless legs syndrome was at 5.5% and 25.9% are in risk of becoming sick, 42.3% are in fatigue, 3.5% in high stage of insomnia and 27.4% are sleepy on duty. Insomnia of nurses mainly affected from long-hour shift, dissatisfaction, workload, lose of focus and use of coffee. There is sleepiness lies in the workplace due to number of shifts, unsatisfactory performance and emergency calls between shifts. It has been determined that risk of sickness influenced by number of shifts in a month and long hour shift, dissatisfaction and use of coffee and divisions are causing restless legs syndrome. Conclusions: Among the nurses, it was found that the prevalence of insomnia is 31.6%, sleepiness 27.4%, fatigue 42.3%, restless legs syndrome 35% and stress 25.9%. These factors of shift work affecting health tend to go up as working hours increase and more common among shift work nurses.

Keywords: shiftwork, insomnia, sleepiness, restless

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Authors: Ruth Elvish, Alex Turner, Jen Wells

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Over recent years there has been an increasing interest in the topic of well-being at work, and staff support is an area of continued growth. The present qualitative study explored the impact of a staff well-being service that was specifically attached to a five-year multi-site research programme (the Neighbourhoods and Dementia Study, funded by the ESRC/NIHR). The well-being service was led by a clinical psychologist, who offered 1:1 sessions for staff and co-researchers with dementia. To our knowledge, this service was the first of its kind. Methodology: Interviews were undertaken with staff who had used the service and who opted to take part in the study (n=7). Thematic analysis was used as the method of analysis. Findings: Themes included: triggers, mechanisms of change, impact/outcomes, and unique aspects of a dedicated staff well-being service. Conclusions: The study highlights stressors that are pertinent amongst staff within academic settings, and shows the ways in which a dedicated staff well-being service can impact on both professional and personal lives. Positive change was seen in work performance, self-esteem, relationships, and coping. This exploratory study suggests that this well-being service model should be further trialled and evaluated.

Keywords: academic, service, staff, support, well-being

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Authors: Maryam Safrai, Tewfik Mahdi

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This article presents the stochastic modeling of the Richelieu River flood in Quebec, Canada, occurred in the spring of 2011. With the aid of the one-dimensional Watershed Modeling System (WMS (v.10.1) and HEC-RAS (v.4.1) as a flood simulator, the delineation of the probabilistic flooded areas was considered. Based on the Monte Carlo method, WMS (v.10.1) delineated the probabilistic flooded areas with corresponding occurrence percentages. Furthermore, results of this one-dimensional model were compared with the results of two-dimensional model (SRH-2D) for the evaluation of efficiency and precision of each applied model. Based on this comparison, computational process in two-dimensional model is longer and more complicated versus brief one-dimensional one. Although, two-dimensional models are more accurate than one-dimensional method, but according to existing modellers, delineation of probabilistic flooded areas based on Monte Carlo method is achievable via one-dimensional modeler. The applied software in this case study greatly responded to verify the research objectives. As a result, flood risk maps of the Richelieu River with the two applied models (1d, 2d) could elucidate the flood risk factors in hydrological, hydraulic, and managerial terms.

Keywords: flood modeling, HEC-RAS, model comparison, Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic flooded area, SRH-2D, WMS

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Authors: A. Kaddour, S. M. A. Bekkouche

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Limiting heat losses during ventilation of indoor building spaces has become a basic aim for architects. Much experience has been gained in terms of ventilation of indoor spaces. Nevertheless, due to the complex applications, attempts to create a theoretical base for solving the problems related to the issue are limited, especially determining the minimum ventilation period required within a designated space. In this paper we have approached this matter, both theoretically and computationally. The conclusion we reached was that controlled ventilation of spaces through vent holes that successively open and close at regular time intervals can limit the excessive circulation of air masses, which in turn limits heat losses. Air change rates through open and tilted windows in rooms of residential buildings driven by atmospheric motions are investigated to evaluate natural ventilation concepts. Model of thermal building simulations is used. A separated sample storey and a sample single room in larger scales were used to measure air transport through window openings under the influence of the external pressure distribution.

Keywords: natural ventilation, temperature factor, air change rates, air circulation

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Authors: M. Roberts

Abstract:

We Are Undefeatable - is a mass marketing behaviour change campaign that aims to support the least active people living with long term health conditions to be more active. This is an important issue to address because people with long term conditions are an historically underserved community for the sport and physical activity sector and the least active of those with long term conditions have the most to gain in health and wellbeing benefits. The campaign has generated a significant change in the way physical activity is communicated and people with long term conditions are represented in the media and marketing. The goal is to create a social norm around being active. The campaign is led by a unique partnership of organisations: the Richmond Group of Charities (made up of Age UK, Alzheimer’s Society, Asthma + Lung UK, Breast Cancer Now, British Heart Foundation, British Red Cross, Diabetes UK, Macmillan Cancer Support, Rethink Mental Illness, Royal Voluntary Service, Stroke Association, Versus Arthritis) along with Mind, MS Society, Parkinson’s UK and Sport England, with National Lottery Funding. It is underpinned by the COM-B model of behaviour change. It draws on the lived experience of people with multiple long term conditions to shape the look and feel of the campaign and all the resources available. People with long term conditions are the campaign messengers, central to the ethos of the campaign by telling their individual stories of overcoming barriers to be active with their health conditions. The central messaging is about finding a way to be active that works for the individual. We Are Undefeatable is evaluated through a multi-modal approach, including regular qualitative focus groups and a quantitative evaluation tracker undertaken three times a year. The campaign has highlighted the significant barriers to physical activity for people with long term conditions. This has changed the way our partnership talks about physical activity but has also had an impact on the wider sport and physical activity sector, prompting an increasing departure from traditional messaging and marketing approaches for this audience of people with long term conditions. The campaign has reached millions of people since its launch in 2019, through multiple marketing and partnership channels including primetime TV advertising and promotion through health professionals and in health settings. Its diverse storytellers make it relatable to its target audience and the achievable activities highlighted and inclusive messaging inspire our audience to take action as a result of seeing the campaign. The We Are Undefeatable campaign is a blueprint for physical activity campaigns; it not only addresses individual behaviour change but plays a role in addressing systemic barriers to physical activity by sharing the lived experience insight to shape policy and professional practice.

Keywords: behaviour change, long term conditions, partnership, relatable

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Authors: Abhaydeep Pandey, Shweta Shukla, Saptamita Goswami, Bhaswati Bandyopadhyay, Vishnampettai Ramachandran, Sudhanshu Vrati, Arup Banerjee

Abstract:

Dengue virus infection is now considered as one of the most important mosquito-borne infection in human. The virus is known to promote vascular permeability, cerebral edema leading to Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or Dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Dengue infection has known to be endemic in India for over two centuries as a benign and self-limited disease. In the last couple of years, the disease symptoms have changed, manifesting severe secondary complication. So far, Delhi has experienced 12 outbreaks of dengue virus infection since 1997 with the last reported in 2014-15. Without specific antivirals, the case management of high-risk dengue patients entirely relies on supportive care, involving constant monitoring and timely fluid support to prevent hypovolemic shock. Nonetheless, the diverse clinical spectrum of dengue disease, as well as its initial similarity to other viral febrile illnesses, presents a challenge in the early identification of this high-risk group. WHO recommends the use of warning signs to identify high-risk patients, but warning signs generally appear during, or just one day before the development of severe illness, thus, providing only a narrow window for clinical intervention. The ability to predict which patient may develop DHF and DSS may improve the triage and treatment. With the recent discovery of high throughput RNA sequencing allows us to understand the disease progression at the genomic level. Here, we will collate the results of RNA-Sequencing data obtained recently from PBMC of different categories of dengue patients from India and will discuss the possible role of deregulated genes and long non-coding RNAs NEAT1 for development of disease progression.

Keywords: long non-coding RNA (lncRNA), dengue, peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC), nuclear enriched abundant transcript 1 (NEAT1), dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), dengue shock syndrome (DSS)

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Authors: Rishindra M. Sarviya, Ashish Agrawal

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Solar energy is available abundantly in the world, but it is not continuous and its intensity also varies with time. Due to above reason the acceptability and reliability of solar based thermal system is lower than conventional systems. A properly designed heat storage system increases the reliability of solar thermal systems by bridging the gap between the energy demand and availability. In the present work, two dimensional numerical simulation of the melting of heat storage material is presented in the horizontal annulus of double pipe latent heat storage system. Longitudinal fins were used as a thermal conductivity enhancement. Paraffin wax was used as a heat-storage or phase change material (PCM). Constant wall temperature is applied to heat transfer tube. Presented two-dimensional numerical analysis shows the movement of melting front in the finned cylindrical annulus for analyzing the thermal behavior of the system during melting.

Keywords: latent heat, numerical study, phase change material, solar energy

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Authors: Zhuo Feng, Ying Gao

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Public-private partnership (PPP), as an innovative way to provide infrastructures by the private sector, is being widely used throughout the world. Compared with the traditional mode, PPP emerges largely for merits of relieving public budget constraint and improving infrastructure supply efficiency by involving private funds. However, PPP projects are characterized by large scale, high investment, long payback period, and long concession period. These characteristics make PPP projects full of risks. One of the most important risks faced by the private sector is demand risk because many factors affect the real demand. If the real demand is far lower than the forecasting demand, the private sector will be got into big trouble because operating revenue is the main means for the private sector to recoup the investment and obtain profit. Therefore, it is important to study how the government compensates the private sector when the demand risk occurs in order to achieve Pareto-improvement. This research focuses on price compensation mechanism, an ex-post compensation mechanism, and analyzes, by mathematical modeling, the impact of price compensation mechanism on payoff of the private sector and consumer surplus for PPP toll road projects. This research first investigates whether or not price compensation mechanisms can obtain Pareto-improvement and, if so, then explores boundary conditions for this mechanism. The research results show that price compensation mechanism can realize Pareto-improvement under certain conditions. Especially, to make the price compensation mechanism accomplish Pareto-improvement, renegotiation costs of the government and the private sector should be lower than a certain threshold which is determined by marginal operating cost and distortionary cost of the tax. In addition, the compensation percentage should match with the price cut of the private investor when demand drops. This research aims to provide theoretical support for the government when determining compensation scope under the price compensation mechanism. Moreover, some policy implications can also be drawn from the analysis for better risk-sharing and sustainability of PPP projects.

Keywords: infrastructure, price compensation mechanism, public-private partnership, renegotiation

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Authors: Shazi Farooqui, Anupam Sharma

Abstract:

The Mahi River (~600km long) is an important west flowing the river of Central India. It originates in Madhya Pradesh and starts flowing in NW direction and enters into the state of Rajasthan. It flows across southern Rajasthan and then enters into Gujarat and finally debouches in the Gulf of Cambay. In Gujarat state, it flows through all four geomorphic zones i.e. eastern upland zone, shallow buried piedmont zone, alluvial zone and coastal zone. In lower reaches and particularly when it is flowing under the coastal regime, it provides an opportunity to study – 1. Land–Sea interaction and role of relative sea level changes, 2. Coastal/estuarine geological process, 3. Landscape evolution in marginal areas and so on. The Late Quaternary deposits of Mainland Gujarat is appreciably studied by Chamyal and his group of MS University of Baroda, and they have established that the 30-35m thick sediment package of the Mainland Gujarat is comprised of marine, fluvial and aeolian sediments. It is also established that in the estuarine zone, the upper few meter thick sediments package is of marine nature. However, its thickness, characters and the depositional environment including the role of climate and tectonics is still not clearly defined. To understand few aspects of the above mentioned, in the present study, a 17m subsurface sediment core has been retrieved from the estuarine zone of Mahi river basin. The Multiproxy studies which include the textural analysis (grain size), Loss on ignition (LOI), Bulk and clay mineralogy and geochemical studies have been carried out. In the entire sedimentary sequence, the grain size largely varies from coarse sand to clay; however, a solitary gravel bed is also noticed. The lower part (depth 9-17m), is mainly comprised of sub equal proportion of sand and silt. The sediments mainly have bimodal and leptokurtic distribution and deposited in alternate sand-silt package, probably indicating flood deposits. Relatively low moisture (1.8%) and organic carbon (2.4%) with increased carbonate values (12%) indicate that conditions must have to remain oxidizing. The middle part (depth 9–6m) has a 1m thick gravel bed at the bottom and overlain by coarse sand to very fine sand showing fining upward sequence. The presence of gravel bed suggests some kind of tectonic activity resulting into change in base level or enhanced precipitation in the catchment region. The upper part (depth 6–0m; top part of sequence) mainly comprised of fine sand to silt size grains (with appreciable clay content). The sediment of this part is Unimodal and very leptokurtic in nature suggesting wave and winnowing process and deposited in low energy suspension environment. This part has relatively high moisture (2.1%) and organic carbon (2.7%) with decreased carbonate content (4.2%) indicating change in the depositional environment probably under estuarine conditions. The presence of chlorite along with smectite clay mineral further supports the significant marine contribution in the formation of upper part of the sequence.

Keywords: grain size, statistical analysis, clay minerals, late quaternary, LOI

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Authors: Zubier Arfan, Paul Johnson

Abstract:

The electronification of financial markets and the rise of algorithmic trading has sparked a lot of interest from the mathematical community, for the market making-problem in particular. The research presented in this short paper solves the classic stochastic control problem in order to derive the strategy for a market-maker. It also shows how to calibrate and simulate the strategy with real limit order book data for back-testing. The ambiguity of limit-order priority in back-testing is dealt with by considering optimistic and pessimistic priority scenarios. The model, although it does outperform a naive strategy, assumes constant volatility, therefore, is not best suited to the LOB data. The Heston model is introduced to describe the price and variance process of the asset. The Trader's constant absolute risk aversion utility function is optimised by numerically solving a 3-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equation to find the optimal limit order quotes. The results show that the stochastic volatility market-making model is more suitable for a risk-averse trader and is also less sensitive to calibration error than the constant volatility model.

Keywords: market-making, market-microsctrucure, stochastic volatility, quantitative trading

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Authors: Kumar Kanudkuri, A. Sandhya

Abstract:

Typically, in a MRI clinical setting, there are several protocols run, each indicated for a specific anatomy and disease condition. However, these protocols or parameters within them can change over time due to changes to the recommendations by the physician groups or updates in the software or by the availability of new technologies. Most of the time, the changes are performed by the MRI technologist to account for either time, coverage, physiological, or Specific Absorbtion Rate (SAR ) reasons. However, giving properly guidelines to MRI technologist is important so that they do not change the parameters that negatively impact the image quality. Typically a standard American College of Radiology (ACR) MRI phantom is used for Quality Control (QC) in order to guarantee that the primary objectives of MRI are met. The visual evaluation of quality depends on the operator/reviewer and might change amongst operators as well as for the same operator at various times. Therefore, overcoming these constraints is essential for a more impartial evaluation of quality. This makes quantitative estimation of image quality (IQ) metrics for MRI quality control is very important. So in order to solve this problem, we proposed that there is a need for a robust, open-source, and automated MRI image control tool. The Designed and developed an automatic analysis tool for measuring MRI image quality (IQ) metrics like Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR), Signal to Noise Ratio Uniformity (SNRU), Visual Information Fidelity (VIF), Feature Similarity (FSIM), Gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM), slice thickness accuracy, slice position accuracy, High contrast spatial resolution) provided good accuracy assessment. A standardized quality report has generated that incorporates metrics that impact diagnostic quality.

Keywords: ACR MRI phantom, MRI image quality metrics, SNRU, VIF, FSIM, GLCM, slice thickness accuracy, slice position accuracy

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Authors: Guo Yu, Haoming Ma, Peiru Zhou

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BACKGROUND: In addition to hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and glycemic variability, a decrease in the time in the targeted blood glucose range (TIR) may be associated with an increased risk of death for critically ill patients. However, the relationship between the TIR and mortality may be influenced by the presence of diabetes and glycemic variability. METHODS: A total of 998 diabetic and non-diabetic patients with severe diseases in the ICU were selected for this retrospective analysis. The TIR is defined as the percentage of time spent in the target blood glucose range of 3.9–10.0 mmol/L within 24 hours. The relationship between TIR and in-hospital in diabetic and non-diabetic patients was analyzed. The effect of glycemic variability was also analyzed. RESULTS: The binary logistic regression model showed that there was a significant association between the TIR as a continuous variable and the in-hospital death of severely ill non-diabetic patients (OR=0.991, P=0.015). As a classification variable, TIR≥70% was significantly associated with in-hospital death (OR=0.581, P=0.003). Specifically, TIR≥70% was a protective factor for the in-hospital death of severely ill non-diabetic patients. The TIR of severely ill diabetic patients was not significantly associated with in-hospital death; however, glycemic variability was significantly and independently associated with in-hospital death (OR=1.042, P=0.027). Binary logistic regression analysis of comprehensive indices showed that for non-diabetic patients, the C3 index (low TIR & high CV) was a risk factor for increased mortality (OR=1.642, P<0.001). In addition, for diabetic patients, the C3 index was an independent risk factor for death (OR=1.994, P=0.008), and the C4 index (low TIR & low CV) was independently associated with increased survival. CONCLUSIONS: The TIR of non-diabetic patients during ICU hospitalization was associated with in-hospital death even after adjusting for disease severity and glycemic variability. There was no significant association between the TIR and mortality of diabetic patients. However, for both diabetic and non-diabetic critically ill patients, the combined effect of high TIR and low CV was significantly associated with ICU mortality. Diabetic patients seem to have higher blood glucose fluctuations and can tolerate a large TIR range. Both diabetic and non-diabetic critically ill patients should maintain blood glucose levels within the target range to reduce mortality.

Keywords: severe disease, diabetes, blood glucose control, time in targeted blood glucose range, glycemic variability, mortality

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