Search results for: two stage stochastic model

Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

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In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.

Keywords: crack size, fatigue crack propagation, magnesium alloys, probability distribution, specimen thickness

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Authors: Razyeh Behbahani, Martin L. Plumer, Ivan Saika-Voivod

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Micromagnetic simulations based on the stochastic Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation are used to calculate dynamic magnetic hysteresis loops relevant to magnetic hyperthermia applications. With the goal to effectively simulate room-temperature loops for large iron-oxide based systems at relatively slow sweep rates on the order of 1 Oe/ns or less, a coarse-graining scheme is proposed and tested. The scheme is derived from a previously developed renormalization-group approach. Loops associated with nanorods, used as building blocks for larger nanoparticles that were employed in preclinical trials (Dennis et al., 2009 Nanotechnology 20 395103), serve as the model test system. The scaling algorithm is shown to produce nearly identical loops over several decades in the model grain sizes. Sweep-rate scaling involving the damping constant alpha is also demonstrated.

Keywords: coarse-graining, hyperthermia, hysteresis loops, micromagnetic simulations

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Authors: Yangrae Cho, Jinseok Kim, Yongtae Park

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Mobile app service ecosystem has been abruptly emerged, explosively grown, and dynamically transformed. In contrast with product markets in which product sales directly cause increment in firm’s income, customer’s usage is less visible but more valuable in service market. Especially, the market situation with cutthroat competition in mobile app store makes securing and keeping of users as vital. Although a few service firms try to manage their apps’ usage patterns by fitting on S-curve or applying other forecasting techniques, the time series approaches based on past sequential data are subject to fundamental limitation in the market where customer’s attention is being moved unpredictably and dynamically. We therefore propose a new conceptual approach for detecting usage pattern of mobile app service with Hidden Markov Model (HMM) which is based on the dual stochastic structure and mainly used to clarify unpredictable and dynamic sequential patterns in voice recognition or stock forecasting. Our approach could be practically utilized for app service firms to manage their services’ lifecycles and academically expanded to other markets.

Keywords: mobile app service, usage pattern, Hidden Markov Model, pattern detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 336

Authors: Tae Bo Jeon

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Korean air force is undertaking a big project to replace prevailing hundreds of old air fighters such as F-4, F-5, KF-16 etc. The task is to develop and produce domestic fighters equipped with 2 complete-type engines each. A large number of engines, however, will be purchased as products from a foreign engine maker. In addition to the fighters themselves, secure the proper number of spare engines serves a significant role in maintaining combat readiness and effectively managing the national defense budget due to high cost. In this paper, we presented a model dynamically updating spare engine requirements. Currently, the military administration purchases all the fighters, engines, and spare engines at acquisition stage and does not have additional procurement processes during the life cycle, 30-40 years. With the assumption that procurement procedure during the operational stage is established, our model starts from the initial estimate of spare engine requirements based on limited information. The model then performs military missions and repair/maintenance works when necessary. During operation, detailed field information - aircraft repair and test, engine repair, planned maintenance, administration time, transportation pipeline between base, field, and depot etc., - should be considered for actual engine requirements. At the end of each year, the performance measure is recorded and proceeds to next year when it shows higher the threshold set. Otherwise, additional engine(s) will be bought and added to the current system. We repeat the process for the life cycle period and compare the results. The proposed model is seen to generate far better results appropriately adding spare engines thus avoiding possible undesirable situations. Our model may well be applied to future air force military operations.

Keywords: DMSMS, operational availability, METRIC, PRS

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Authors: Muhammad Jabbar

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In this paper we propose two ratio and ratio type exponential estimator for the estimation of population coefficient of variation using the auxiliary information under two-stage sampling. The properties of these estimators are derived up to first order of approximation. The efficiency conditions under which suggested estimator are more efficient, are obtained. Numerical and simulated studies are conducted to support the superiority of the estimators. Theoretically and numerically, we have found that our proposed estimator is always more efficient as compared to its competitor estimator.

Keywords: two-stage sampling, coefficient of variation, ratio type exponential estimator

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Authors: Minzheong Song

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The purpose of this paper is to see a case of smart energy evolution of the UK along with government projects and smart city project like 'Smart London Plan (SLP)' in 2013 with the logic of business model innovation (BMI). For this, it discusses the theoretical logic and formulates a research framework of evolving smart energy from silo to integrated system. The starting point is the silo system with no connection and in second stage, the private investment in smart meters, smart grids implementation, energy and water nexus, adaptive smart grid systems, and building marketplaces with platform leadership. As results, the UK’s smart energy sector has evolved from smart meter device installation through smart grid to new business models such as water-energy nexus and microgrid service within the smart energy city system.

Keywords: smart city, smart energy, business model, business model innovation (BMI)

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Authors: Buket Metin

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Buildings cause a variety of loads on the environment due to activities performed at each stage of the building life cycle. Construction is the first stage that affects both the natural and built environments at different steps of the process, which can be defined as transportation of materials within the construction site, formation and preparation of materials on-site and the application of materials to realize the building subsystems. All of these steps require the use of technology, which varies based on the facilities that contractors and subcontractors have. Hence, environmental consequences of the construction process should be tackled by focusing on construction technology options used in every step of the process. This paper presents an environmental decision-making model for assessing on-site performances of subcontractors based on the construction technology options which they can supply. First, construction technologies, which constitute information, tools and methods, are classified. Then, environmental performance criteria are set forth related to resource consumption, ecosystem quality, and human health issues. Finally, the model is developed based on the relationships between the construction technology components and the environmental performance criteria. The Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method is used for weighting the environmental performance criteria according to environmental priorities of decision-maker(s), while the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method is used for ranking on-site environmental performances of subcontractors using quantitative data related to the construction technology components. Thus, the model aims to provide an insight to decision-maker(s) about the environmental consequences of the construction process and to provide an opportunity to improve the overall environmental performance of construction sites.

Keywords: construction process, construction technology, decision making, environmental performance, subcontractor

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Rory Anthony Hutagalung, Leonardus Widjaja

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Microalgae Meyerella planktonica is a potential biofuel source because it can grow in bulk in either autotrophic or heterotrophic condition. However, the quantitative growth of this algal type is still low as it tends to precipitates on the bottom. Beside, the lipid concentration is still low when grown in autotrophic condition. In contrast, heterotrophic condition can enhance the lipid concentration. The combination of autotrophic condition and agitation treatment was conducted to increase the density of the culture. On the other hand, a heterotrophic condition was set up to raise the lipid production. A two-stage experiment was applied to increase the density at the first step and to increase the lipid concentration in the next step. The autotrophic condition resulted higher density but lower lipid concentration compared to heterotrophic one. The agitation treatment produced higher density in both autotrophic and heterotrophic conditions. The two-stage experiment managed to enhance the density during the autotrophic stage and the lipid concentration during the heterotrophic stage. The highest yield was performed by using 0.4% v/v glycerol as a carbon source (2.9±0.016 x 106 cells w/w) attained 7 days after the heterotrophic stage began. The lipid concentration was stable starting from day 7.

Keywords: agitation, glycerol, heterotrophic, lipid productivity, Meyerella planktonica

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Authors: Chin-Chia Jane

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In a transportation network, travel time refers to the transmission time from source node to destination node, whereas reliability refers to the probability of a successful connection from source node to destination node. With an increasing emphasis on quality of service (QoS), both performance indexes are significant in the design and analysis of transportation systems. In this work, we extend the well-known flow network model for transportation networks so that travel time and reliability are integrated into the QoS measurement simultaneously. In the extended model, in addition to the general arc capacities, each intermediate node has a time weight which is the travel time for per unit of commodity going through the node. Meanwhile, arcs and nodes are treated as binary random variables that switch between operation and failure with associated probabilities. For pre-specified travel time limitation and demand requirement, the QoS of a transportation network is the probability that source can successfully transport the demand requirement to destination while the total transmission time is under the travel time limitation. This work is pioneering, since existing literatures that evaluate travel time reliability via a single optimization path, the proposed QoS focuses the performance of the whole network system. To compute the QoS of transportation networks, we first transfer the extended network model into an equivalent min-cost max-flow network model. In the transferred network, each arc has a new travel time weight which takes value 0. Each intermediate node is replaced by two nodes u and v, and an arc directed from u to v. The newly generated nodes u and v are perfect nodes. The new direct arc has three weights: travel time, capacity, and operation probability. Then the universal set of state vectors is recursively decomposed into disjoint subsets of reliable, unreliable, and stochastic vectors until no stochastic vector is left. The decomposition is made possible by applying existing efficient min-cost max-flow algorithm. Because the reliable subsets are disjoint, QoS can be obtained directly by summing the probabilities of these reliable subsets. Computational experiments are conducted on a benchmark network which has 11 nodes and 21 arcs. Five travel time limitations and five demand requirements are set to compute the QoS value. To make a comparison, we test the exhaustive complete enumeration method. Computational results reveal the proposed algorithm is much more efficient than the complete enumeration method. In this work, a transportation network is analyzed by an extended flow network model where each arc has a fixed capacity, each intermediate node has a time weight, and both arcs and nodes are independent binary random variables. The quality of service of the transportation network is an integration of customer demands, travel time, and the probability of connection. We present a decomposition algorithm to compute the QoS efficiently. Computational experiments conducted on a prototype network show that the proposed algorithm is superior to existing complete enumeration methods.

Keywords: quality of service, reliability, transportation network, travel time

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Authors: Bukhari M. S. Sillah, Imran Khokhar, Muhammad Nauman Khan

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This paper studies the technical efficiency of Saudi banking sector using stochastic frontier model. A sample of 12 banks over the period 2000-2011 is selected to investigate their technical efficiencies in mobilizing deposits, producing investment and generating income. The banks are categorized as Saudi-owned banks, Saudi-foreign-owned banks and Islamic banks. The findings show some consistent pattern of these bank types; and there exist significant disparities among the banks in term of technical efficiency. The Banque Saudi Fransi stands out as a benchmark bank for the industry, and it is a Saudi-foreign owned bank type. The Saudi owned bank types have shown fluctuating performance during the period; and the Islamic bank types are no significantly different from Saudi-owned bank types.

Keywords: technical efficiency, production frontier model, Islamic banking

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression

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Authors: Yunyong Guo, Man Wang, Bryan Guo, Nathan Guo

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This paper introduces an advanced security and privacy model tailored for Telehealth systems, emphasizing end-to-end protection across IoT, Fog, and Cloud components. The proposed model integrates encryption, key management, intrusion detection, and privacy-preserving measures to safeguard patient data. A comprehensive simulation study evaluates the model's effectiveness in scenarios such as unauthorized access, physical breaches, and insider threats. Results indicate notable success in detecting and mitigating threats yet underscore areas for refinement. The study contributes insights into the intricate balance between security and usability in Telehealth environments, setting the stage for continued advancements.

Keywords: cloud, enhancing security, fog, IoT, telehealth

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Authors: Guiheng Zhang, Wei Zhang, Jun Fu, Yudong Wang

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A 900 MHz three-stage SiGe power amplifier (PA) with high power gain is presented in this paper. Volterra Series is applied to analyze nonlinearity sources of SiGe HBT device model clearly. Meanwhile, the influence of operating current to IMD3 is discussed. Then a β-helper current mirror bias circuit is applied to improve linearity, since the β-helper current mirror bias circuit can offer stable base biasing voltage. Meanwhile, it can also work as predistortion circuit when biasing voltages of three bias circuits are fine-tuned, by this way, the power gain and operating current of PA are optimized for best linearity. The three power stages which fabricated by 0.18 μm SiGe technology are bonded to the printed circuit board (PCB) to obtain impedances by Load-Pull system, then matching networks are done for best linearity with discrete passive components on PCB. The final measured three-stage PA exhibits 21.1 dBm of output power at 1 dB compression point (OP1dB) with power added efficiency (PAE) of 20.6% and 33 dB power gain under 3.3 V power supply voltage.

Keywords: high gain power amplifier, linearization bias circuit, SiGe HBT model, Volterra series

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Authors: Retno A. Vinarti, Lucy M. Hederman

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This research describes a knowledge model for a system which give personalized alert to users about infectious disease risks in the context of weather, location and time. The knowledge model is based on established epidemiological concepts augmented by information gleaned from infection-related data repositories. The existing disease risk prediction research has more focuses on utilizing raw historical data and yield seasonal patterns of infectious disease risk emergence. This research incorporates both data and epidemiological concepts gathered from Atlas of Human Infectious Disease (AHID) and Centre of Disease Control (CDC) as basic reasoning of infectious disease risk prediction. Using CommonKADS methodology, the disease risk prediction task is an assignment synthetic task, starting from knowledge identification through specification, refinement to implementation. First, knowledge is gathered from AHID primarily from the epidemiology and risk group chapters for each infectious disease. The result of this stage is five major elements (Person, Infectious Disease, Weather, Location and Time) and their properties. At the knowledge specification stage, the initial tree model of each element and detailed relationships are produced. This research also includes a validation step as part of knowledge refinement: on the basis that the best model is formed using the most common features, Frequency-based Selection (FBS) is applied. The portion of the Infectious Disease risk model relating to Person comes out strongest, with Location next, and Weather weaker. For Person attribute, Age is the strongest, Activity and Habits are moderate, and Blood type is weakest. At the Location attribute, General category (e.g. continents, region, country, and island) results much stronger than Specific category (i.e. terrain feature). For Weather attribute, Less Precise category (i.e. season) comes out stronger than Precise category (i.e. exact temperature or humidity interval). However, given that some infectious diseases are significantly more serious than others, a frequency based metric may not be appropriate. Future work will incorporate epidemiological measurements of disease seriousness (e.g. odds ratio, hazard ratio and fatality rate) into the validation metrics. This research is limited to modelling existing knowledge about epidemiology and chain of infection concepts. Further step, verification in knowledge refinement stage, might cause some minor changes on the shape of tree.

Keywords: epidemiology, knowledge modelling, infectious disease, prediction, risk

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Authors: Azam Abkhiz, Abolghasem Nasir

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To achieve sustainable competitive advantage in the market, it is necessary to provide and improve customer satisfaction and Loyalty. To reach this objective, companies need to identify and analyze their customers. Thus, it is critical to measure the level of customer satisfaction and Loyalty very carefully. This study attempts to build a conceptual model to provide clear insights of customer loyalty. Using Bayesian networks (BNs), a model is proposed to evaluate customer loyalty and its consequences, such as repurchase and positive word-of-mouth. BN is a probabilistic approach that predicts the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The most relevant determinants of customer loyalty are identified by the literature review. Perceived value, service quality, trust, corporate image, satisfaction, and switching costs are the most important variables that explain customer loyalty. The data are collected by use of a questionnaire-based survey from 1430 customers of a home appliances manufacturer in Iran. Four scenarios and sensitivity analyses are performed to run and analyze the impact of different determinants on customer loyalty. The proposed model allows businesses to not only set their targets but proactively manage their customer behaviors as well.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, customer loyalty, Bayesian networks, home appliances industry

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Authors: David Bolaji

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Operatic production in Nigeria emanates from the traditional theatrical performances rooted in the ritual festival and traditional religious ceremonies among different cultures in Nigeria. The existence and the performative continuum of opera in Nigeria have been in the limelight of stage productions and diverse performances before the presence of Europeans in Nigeria. However, the transformation of this musical genre evolved from an indigenous concept into an art form that is acceptable within the circumference theatrical platform globally. The present state of stage operatic production has gone into extinction as the result of diverse factors, which include: a lack of scripted operatic works by Nigerian art composers, disconnection and lack of continuation from the artistic, theatrical contributions of the foremost folk operatic practitioners in Nigeria and lack of progressive transformation of stage operatic production into screen production in Nigeria. The bibliography method was employed in this study. Also, the use of interviews and questionnaires was adopted. Findings reveal that the extinction of operatic production can be corrected through the intentional act of composing scripted operatic works by Nigerian art composers; by establishing a collaborative effort between the scriptwriters (librettists) and the Nigerian art composers, operatic stage performance could be transformed in screen production to create more awareness of it in the society.

Keywords: operatic production, extinction, nigerian art music, and nigerian art composers

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Authors: Xiaoyan Jiang, Huizhu Wang, Lili Gui, Dandan Shen, Xiao Wei, Xi Yu, Hailiang Liu, Min Hong

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Objective: Applicate FITC to establish Th2-type allergic contact dermatitis model, and study the effect and mechanism of Cimifugin on Th2-type allergic contact dermatitis. Methods: The Balb/c mice were sensitized with painting 80 ul of 1.5% FITC onto the shaved abdomen skin at DAY1 and DAY2. The animals were challenged on their right ears with 20 ul of 0.6% FITC, and the left ears were painted with solvent alone at day 6, mice were administered cimifugin for 7 days. 24h later, ear swelling was noted, and the infiltration of eosinophils was investigated by hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining. while part of the ear tissue homogenates prepared for detecting interleukin-4 levels by ELISA .Mice were administered cimifugin In the initial stage of the above model for 5 days(-1DAY—DAY3), ear tissue were homogenized to detect IL-33 levels by ELISA. Results: Cimifugin 25mg/kg, 50mg/kg inhibited mouse ear swelling, ear histopathology showed that mice given Cimifugin has significantly reduced levels of local tissue fluid exudation, congestion, infiltration of lymphocytes, and other inflammatory conditions compared with the model group. At the same time, it has significantly reduce of Th2 cytokines IL-4 in the mouse ear tissue homogenate. Data of the initial stage shows that 12.5mg/kg, 50mg/kg Cimifugin significantly inhibited IL-33 levels. Conclusion: Cimifugin inhibit FITC-induced Th2-type allergic contact dermatitis, and its mechanism may be related to inhibition of IL-33.

Keywords: cimifugin, allergic contact dermatitis, Th1/Th2, IL-33

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Authors: Strahinja Kovačević, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Lidija Jevrić, Milica Karadžić

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The present study is based on the quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis of eighteen compounds with anti-prion activity. The structures and anti-prion activities (expressed in response units, RU%) of the analyzed compounds are taken from CHEMBL database. In the first step of analysis 85 molecular descriptors were calculated and based on them the hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) were carried out in order to detect potential significant similarities or dissimilarities among the studied compounds. The calculated molecular descriptors were physicochemical, lipophilicity and ADMET (absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion and toxicity) descriptors. The first stage of the QSAR analysis was simple linear regression modeling. It resulted in one acceptable model that correlates Henry's law constant with RU% units. The obtained 2D-QSAR model was validated by cross-validation as an internal validation method. The validation procedure confirmed the model’s quality and therefore it can be used for prediction of anti-prion activity. The next stage of the analysis of anti-prion activity will include 3D-QSAR and molecular docking approaches in order to select the most promising compounds in treatment of prion diseases. These results are the part of the project No. 114-451-268/2016-02 financially supported by the Provincial Secretariat for Science and Technological Development of AP Vojvodina.

Keywords: anti-prion activity, chemometrics, molecular modeling, QSAR

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Authors: Mohammed Alkiyumi

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Educational systems are currently paying special attention to developing learners' higher thinking skills to develop the capabilities of human resources to deal with contemporary challenges. Although psychologists disagree about the concept of higher-order thinking skills and the skills they include, there is unlimited effort in designing them and building strategies for their implementation. The most important factor helping to develop these skills is their classification according to specific criteria, and the most important of these classifications is Bloom's classification, which is dominant in most educational systems at all levels. Previous classifications have many limitations, including the comprehensiveness of the skills they contain, the logical structure of their hierarchy, and classification criteria. Therefore, this article puts another step in this area by providing a new classification of higher-order thinking skills that includes five categories: the first response stage, transformative stage, application, reasoning stage, and the production stage with a logical justification for this classification, with some techniques to developing it among learners.

Keywords: high-order thinking skills, classification, teaching, education

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Authors: Fitria D. Ayuningtyas, Anggraini Barlian

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Green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is one of TSD (Temperature-dependent Sex Determination, TSD) animals which sex is determined by the egg’s incubation temperature. GSD (Genotypic Sex Determination) homologous genes such as Wilms’ Tumor (Wt1) and Forkhead Box L2 (FoxL2) play a role in TSD animal sex determination process. Wt1 plays a role in both male pathway, as a transcription factor for Sf1 gene and in female pathway, as a transcription factor for Dax1. FoxL2 plays a role specifically in female sex determination, and known as transcriptional factor for Aromatase gene. Until now, research on the pattern of Wt1 and FoxL2 genes expression in C.mydas has not been conducted yet. The aim of this research is to know the pattern of Wt1 and FoxL2 genes expression in Mesonephros-Gonad (MG) complexes of Chelonia mydas embryos incubated in masculinizing temperature (MT) and feminizing temperature (FT). Eggs of C.mydas incubated in 3 different stage of TSP (Thermosensitive Period) at masculinizing temperature (26±10C, MT) and feminizing temperature (31±10C FT). Mesonefros-gonad complexes were isolated at Pre-TSP stage (FT at days 14th, MT at days 24th), TSP stage (FT at days 24th, MT at days 36th) and differentiated stage (FT at days 40th, MT at days 58th). RNA from mesonephros-gonad (MG) complexes were converted into cDNA by RT-PCR process, and the pattern of Wt1 and FoxL2 genes expression is analyzed by quantitative Real Time PCR (qPCR) method, β-actin gene is used as an internal control. The pattern of Wt1 gene expression in Pre-TSP stage was almost the same between MG complexes incubated at MT or FT, while TSP and differentiation stage, the pattern of Wt1 gene expression in MG complexes incubated at MT or FT was increased. Wt1 gene expression of MG complexes that incubated at FT was higher than at MT. There was a difference pattern between Wt1 gene expression in this research compared to the previous research in protein level. It could be assumed that the difference caused by post-transcriptional regulation mechanisms before mRNA of Wt1 gene translated into protein structure. The pattern of FoxL2 gene expression in Pre-TSP stage was almost the same between MG complexes that incubated at MT and FT, and increased in both TSP and differentiated stage. The FoxL2 gene expression in MG complexes that incubated in FT is higher than MT on TSP and differentiated stage. Based on the results of this research, it can be assumed that Wt1 and FoxL2 gene were expressed in MG complexes that incubated both at MT and FT since Pre-TSP stage. The pattern of Wt1 gene expression was increased in every stage of gonadal development, and so do the pattern of FoxL2 gene expression. Wt1 and FoxL2 gene expressions were higher in MG complexes incubated at FT than MT.

Keywords: chelonia mydas, FoxL2, gene expression, TSD, Wt1

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Authors: Bai-Chen Xie, Biao Li

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With the deepening of international exchanges and investment, the international comparison of power grid firms has become the focus of regulatory authorities. Ignoring the differences in the economic environment, resource endowment, technology, and other aspects of different countries or regions may lead to efficiency bias. Based on the Meta-frontier model, this paper divides China and Japan into two groups by using the data of China and Japan from 2006 to 2020. While preserving the differences between the two countries, it analyzes and compares the efficiency of the transmission and distribution industries of the two countries. Combined with the four-component stochastic frontier model, the efficiency is divided into transient and persistent efficiency. We found that there are obvious differences between the transmission and distribution sectors in China and Japan. On the one hand, the inefficiency of the two countries is mostly caused by long-term and structural problems. The key to improve the efficiency of the two countries is to focus more on solving long-term and structural problems. On the other hand, the long-term and structural problems that cause the inefficiency of the two countries are not the same. Quality factors have different effects on the efficiency of the two countries, and this different effect is captured by the common frontier model but is offset in the overall model. Based on these findings, this paper proposes some targeted policy recommendations.

Keywords: transmission and distribution industries, transient efficiency, persistent efficiency, meta-frontier, international comparison

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed and the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life is presented. The effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is also investigated.

Keywords: fatigue crack propagation life, load ratio, magnesium alloys, probability distribution

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Authors: Wooyoung Jung, Ghang Lee

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This paper paper reports the worldwide status of building information modeling (BIM) adoption from the perspectives of the engagement level, the Hype Cycle model, the technology diffusion model, and BIM-uses. An online survey was distributed, and 156 experts from six continents responded. Overall, North America was the most advanced continent, followed by Oceania and Europe. Countries in Asia perceived their phase mainly as slope of enlightenment (mature) in the Hype Cycle model. In the technology diffusion model, the main BIM-users worldwide were “early majority” (third phase), but those in the Middle East/Africa and South America were “early adopters” (second phase). In addition, the more advanced the country, the more number of BIM services employed in general. In summary, North America, Europe, Oceania, and Asia were advancing rapidly toward the mature stage of BIM, whereas the Middle East/Africa and South America were still in the early phase. The simple indexes used in this study may be used to track the worldwide status of BIM adoption in long-term surveys.

Keywords: BIM adoption, BIM services, hype cycle model, technology diffusion model

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Authors: Narava Manose

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Distillation is a very old separation technology for separating liquid mixtures that can be traced back to the chemists in Alexandria in the first century A. D. Today distillation is the most important industrial separation technology. By the eleventh century, distillation was being used in Italy to produce alcoholic beverages. At that time, distillation was probably a batch process based on the use of just a single stage, the boiler. The word distillation is derived from the Latin word destillare, which means dripping or trickling down. By at least the sixteenth century, it was known that the extent of separation could be improved by providing multiple vapor-liquid contacts (stages) in a so called Rectifactorium. The term rectification is derived from the Latin words rectefacere, meaning to improve. Modern distillation derives its ability to produce almost pure products from the use of multi-stage contacting. Throughout the twentieth century, multistage distillation was by far the most widely used industrial method for separating liquid mixtures of chemical components.The basic principle behind this technique relies on the different boiling temperatures for the various components of the mixture, allowing the separation between the vapor from the most volatile component and the liquid of other(s) component(s). •Developed a simple non-linear model of a binary distillation column using Skogestad equations in Simulink. •We have computed the steady-state operating point around which to base our analysis and controller design. However, the model contains two integrators because the condenser and reboiler levels are not controlled. One particular way of stabilizing the column is the LV-configuration where we use D to control M_D, and B to control M_B; such a model is given in cola_lv.m where we have used two P-controllers with gains equal to 10.

Keywords: modelling, distillation column, control, binary distillation

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Authors: J. J. Vargas, N. Prieto, L. A. Toro

Abstract:

Control charts are commonly used to monitor processes involving either variable or attribute of quality characteristics and determining the control limits as a critical task for quality engineers to improve the processes. Nonetheless, in some applications it is necessary to include an estimation of efficiency. In this paper, the ability to define the efficiency of an industrial process was added to a control chart by means of incorporating a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. In depth, a Bayesian estimation was performed to calculate the posterior probability distribution of parameters as means and variance and covariance matrix. This technique allows to analyse the data set without the need of using the hypothetical large sample implied in the problem and to be treated as an approximation to the finite sample distribution. A rejection simulation method was carried out to generate random variables from the parameter functions. Each resulting vector was used by stochastic DEA model during several cycles for establishing the distribution of each efficiency measures for each DMU (decision making units). A control limit was calculated with model obtained and if a condition of a low level efficiency of DMU is presented, system efficiency is out of control. In the efficiency calculated a global optimum was reached, which ensures model reliability.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, DEA, Multivariate control chart, rejection simulation method

Procedia PDF Downloads 373

Authors: Zahoor Hussain

Abstract:

Creasing is a physiological disorder of rind in sweet orange [Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck] fruit and causes serious economic losses in various countries of the world. The reversible inhibitor of ethylene, aminoethoxyvinylglycine (AVG) with the effects of different concentrations (0, 20, 40 and 60 mgL⁻¹) AVG with 0.05% ‘Tween 20’ as a surfactant applied at the fruit set, the golf ball or at the colour break stage on controlling creasing, rheological properties of fruit and rind as well as fruit quality in of Washington Navel and Lane Late sweet orange was investigated. Creasing was substantially reduced and fruit quality was improved with the exogenous application of AVG depending upon its concentration and stage of application in both cultivars. The spray application of AVG (60 mgL⁻¹) at the golf ball stage was effective in reducing creasing (27.86% and 24.29%) compared to the control (52.14 and 51.53%) in cv. Washington Navel during 2011 and 2012, respectively. Whilst, in cv. Lane Late lowest creasing was observed When AVG was applied at fruit set stage (22.86%) compared to the control (51.43%) during 2012. In cv. Washington Navel, AVG treatment (60 mgL⁻¹) was more effective to increase the fruit firmness (318.97 N) and rind hardness (25.94 N) when applied at fruit set stage. However, rind tensile strength was higher, when AVG was applied at the golf ball stage (54.13 N). In cv. Lane Late, the rind harness (28.61 N), rind tensile strength (78.82 N) was also higher when AVG was sprayed at fruit set stage. Whilst, the fruit compression force (369.68 N) was higher when AVG was applied at the golf ball stage. Similarly, the treatment AVG (60 mgL⁻¹) was more effective in improving fruit weight (281.00 and 298.50 g) and fruit diameter (87.30 and 82.69 mm), rind thickness (5.56 and 5.38 mm) and total sugars (15.27 mg.100ml⁻¹) when AVG was applied at the fruit golf ball stage in cv. Washington Navel and Lane Late, respectively. Similarly, rind harness (25.94 and 28.61 N), total antioxidants (45.30 and 46.48 mM trolox 100ml⁻¹), total sugars (13.64 and 15.27 mg.100ml⁻¹), citric acid (1.66 and 1.32 mg100ml⁻¹), malic acid (0.36 and 0.63 mg.100ml⁻¹) and succinic acid (0.35 and 0.38 mg100ml⁻¹) were also higher, when AVG was applied at the fruit set stage in both cultivars. In conclusion, the exogenous applications of AVG substantially reduces the creasing incidence, improves rheological properties of fruit and rind as well as fruit quality in Washington Navel and Lane Late sweet orange fruit.

Keywords: AVG, creasing, ethylene inhibitor, sweet orange

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Taha Anjamrooz, Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

Abstract:

Selection between the available projects in bidding processes for the contractor is one of the essential areas to concentrate on. It is important for the contractor to choose the right projects within its portfolio during the tendering stage based on certain criteria. It should align the bidding process with its origination strategies and goals as a screening process to have the right portfolio pool to start with. Secondly, it should set the proper framework and use a suitable technique in order to optimize its selection process for concertation purpose and higher efforts during the tender stage with goals of success and winning. In this research paper, a two steps framework proposed to increase the efficiency of the contractor’s bidding process and the winning chance of getting the new projects awarded. In this framework, initially, all the projects pass through the first stage screening process, in which the portfolio basket will be evaluated and adjusted in accordance with the organization strategies to the reduced version of the portfolio pool, which is in line with organization activities. In the second stage, the contractor uses linear programming to optimize the portfolio pool based on available resources such as manpower, light equipment, heavy equipment, financial capability, return on investment, and success rate of winning the bid. Therefore, this optimization model will assist the contractor in utilizing its internal resource to its maximum and increase its winning chance for the new project considering past experience with clients, built-relation between two parties, and complexity in the exertion of the projects. The objective of this research will be to increase the contractor's winning chance in the bidding process based on the success rate and expected return on investment.

Keywords: bidding process, internal resources, optimization, contracting portfolio management

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Kai-Chee Loh, Jingxin Zhang, Yen-Wah Tong

Abstract:

Hydrolysis and acidogenesis are the rate-controlling steps in an anaerobic digestion (AD) process. Considering that the optimum conditions for each stage can be diverse diverse, the development of a multi-stage AD system is likely to the AD efficiency through individual optimization. In this research, we developed a highly integrate three-stage anaerobic digester (HM3) to combine the advantages of dry AD and wet AD for anaerobic co-digestion of food waste and horse manure. The digester design comprised mainly of three chambers - high-solids hydrolysis, high-solids acidogenesis and wet methanogensis. Through comparing the treatment performance with other two control digesters, HM3 presented 11.2 ~22.7% higher methane yield. The improved methane yield was mainly attributed to the functionalized partitioning in the integrated digester, which significantly accelerated the solubilization of solid organic matters and the formation of organic acids, as well as ammonia in the high-solids hydrolytic and acidogenic stage respectively. Additionally, HM3 also showed the highest volatile solids reduction rate among the three digesters. Real-time PCR and pyrosequencing analysis indicated that the abundance and biodiversity of microorganisms including bacteria and archaea in HM3 was much higher than that in the control reactors.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, high-solids, food waste and horse manure, microbial community

Procedia PDF Downloads 414

Authors: Zhang Tianci, Ding Meng, Zuo Hongfu, Zeng Lina, Sun Zejun

Abstract:

Automation of airport operations can greatly improve ground movement efficiency. In this paper, we study the speed profile design problem for advanced airport ground movement control and guidance. The problem is constrained by the surface four-dimensional trajectory generated in taxi planning. A decomposed approach of two stages is presented to solve this problem efficiently. In the first stage, speeds are allocated at control points which ensure smooth speed profiles can be found later. In the second stage, detailed speed profiles of each taxi interval are generated according to the allocated control point speeds with the objective of minimizing the overall fuel consumption. We present a swarm intelligence based algorithm for the first-stage problem and a discrete variable driven enumeration method for the second-stage problem since it only has a small set of discrete variables. Experimental results demonstrate the presented methodology performs well on real world speed profile design problems.

Keywords: airport ground movement, fuel consumption, particle swarm optimization, smoothness, speed profile design

Procedia PDF Downloads 582