Search results for: multi-hazard risk mapping

Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

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The market of financial instruments with high risk is developing very dynamically in recent years and attracts more and more interest of investors. It consists essentially of two groups of instruments, i.e. derivatives and exchange traded product (ETP), and each year new types are introduced and offered to investors. The aim of this paper is to present the principles concerning financial instruments with high investment risk available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), because they have quite complex constructions, and to evaluate the development of this market. In order to achieve this aim, statistical data from 2014-2016 was analyzed. The results confirm that the financial instruments with high investment risk available on the WSE constitute a diversified and the most numerous group of financial instruments and attract the most interest of investors. Responsible investing requires, however, a good knowledge of how they work and how they can generate profit to not expose oneself to unexpected losses.

Keywords: derivatives, exchange traded products (ETP), financial instruments, financial market, risk, stock exchange

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Authors: Shakila Singh

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This research was conducted at a selected South African university campus with women students who drink alcohol. The purpose of the study was to examine their perspectives on the role of alcohol in their lives, their understandings about women’s vulnerability to alcohol-related sexual risk and their strategies against these. The study draws on feminist principles and practices to challenge gendered inequalities that legitimate and facilitate violence against women. Recognising the danger of focusing on risk management in ways that place the burden of responsibility entirely on young women to prevent their violation, this article focuses on women students’ agency in managing risk while taking up opportunities for self-discovery. Participation was voluntary, and a student-researcher administered an open-ended questionnaire to 55 participants. The findings suggest that young women position alcohol- use as a common activity at university, and that it gives them much pleasure. They recognise that it is riskier for women and articulate valuable strategies to manage the risk to their sexual safety when drinking. These include drinking within supportive networks, avoiding financial dependence, and managing their alcohol intake. This article argues that alcohol at university is an integral part of expressions of gender and sexuality and that risk-taking is a normal part of university students’ lives. Consequently, arguments about equality need to consider risk-taking as part of young people’s lives and promote ways of managing alcohol-related risks, rather than imagining that alcohol can be avoided entirely.

Keywords: alcohol-related sexual risk, drinking at university, managing risk, women students

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Authors: Natalia Kalinowska

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The adoption of the General Data Protection Regulation, (GDPR) finished the four-year work of the European Commission in this area in the European Union. Considering far-reaching changes, which will be applied by GDPR, the European legislator envisaged two-year transitional period. Member states and companies have to prepare for a new regulation until 25 of May 2018. The idea, which becomes a new look at an attitude to data protection in the European Union is risk-based approach. So far, as a result of implementation of Directive 95/46/WE, in many European countries (including Poland) there have been adopted very particular regulations, specifying technical and organisational security measures e.g. Polish implementing rules indicate even how long password should be. According to the new approach from May 2018, controllers and processors will be obliged to apply security measures adequate to level of risk associated with specific data processing. The risk in GDPR should be interpreted as the likelihood of a breach of the rights and freedoms of the data subject. According to Recital 76, the likelihood and severity of the risk to the rights and freedoms of the data subject should be determined by reference to the nature, scope, context and purposes of the processing. GDPR does not indicate security measures which should be applied – in recitals there are only examples such as anonymization or encryption. It depends on a controller’s decision what type of security measures controller considered as sufficient and he will be responsible if these measures are not sufficient or if his identification of risk level is incorrect. Data protection regulation indicates few levels of risk. Recital 76 indicates risk and high risk, but some lawyers think, that there is one more category – low risk/now risk. Low risk/now risk data processing is a situation when it is unlikely to result in a risk to the rights and freedoms of natural persons. GDPR mentions types of data processing when a controller does not have to evaluate level of risk because it has been classified as „high risk” processing e.g. processing on a large scale of special categories of data, processing with using new technologies. The methodology will include analysis of legal regulations e.g. GDPR, the Polish Act on the Protection of personal data. Moreover: ICO Guidelines and articles concerning risk based approach in GDPR. The main conclusion is that an appropriate risk assessment is a key to keeping data safe and avoiding financial penalties. On the one hand, this approach seems to be more equitable, not only for controllers or processors but also for data subjects, but on the other hand, it increases controllers’ uncertainties in the assessment which could have a direct impact on incorrect data protection and potential responsibility for infringement of regulation.

Keywords: general data protection regulation, personal data protection, privacy protection, risk based approach

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: K. Sindhu, V. Shubha Rao

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The goal of every faculty is to guide students to learn fundamental concepts and also improve thinking skills. Curriculum questionnaires must be framed, which would facilitate students to improve their thinking skills. Improving thinking skill is a difficult task and one of the ways to achieve this is to frame questionnaires using Bloom’s Taxonomy. Bloom’s Taxonomy helps the faculty to assess the students in a systematic approach which involves students performing successfully at each level in a systematic manner. In this paper, we have discussed on Revised Bloom’s Taxonomy and how to frame our questions based on the taxonomy for assessment. We have also presented mapping the questions with the taxonomy table which shows the mapping of the questions in knowledge and cognitive domain.

Keywords: bloom’s taxonomy, assessment, questions, engineering education

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Authors: P. S. Jagadeesh Kumar, Yang Yung, Wenli Hu

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Speech emotion classification is a dominant research field in finding a sturdy and profligate classifier appropriate for different real-life applications. This effort accentuates on classifying different emotions from speech signal quarried from the features related to pitch, formants, energy contours, jitter, shimmer, spectral, perceptual and temporal features. Tensor deep stacking neural networks were supported to examine the factors that influence the classification success rate. Facial electromyography signals were composed of several forms of focuses in a controlled atmosphere by means of audio-visual stimuli. Proficient facial electromyography signals were pre-processed using moving average filter, and a set of arithmetical features were excavated. Extracted features were mapped into consistent emotions using bilinear mapping. With facial electromyography signals, a database comprising diverse emotions will be exposed with a suitable fine-tuning of features and training data. A success rate of 92% can be attained deprived of increasing the system connivance and the computation time for sorting diverse emotional states.

Keywords: speech emotion classification, tensor deep stacking neural networks, facial electromyography, bilinear mapping, audio-visual stimuli

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Authors: Seyedmohammad Mousavian, Hanlu Fan, Quingliang Tang

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Climate change is emerging as a severe threat to our society, so businesses are expected to take actions to mitigate carbon emissions. However, the actions to be taken depend on managers’ perceptions of climate change risks. Yet, there is scant research on this issue, and understanding of the determinants of corporate perceptions of climate change is extremely limited. The purpose of this study is to close this gap by examining the relationship between perceptions of climate risk and firm-level and country-level factors. In this study, climate change risk captures physical, regulatory, and other risks, and we use data from European companies that participated in CDP from 2010 to 2017. This study reveals those perceptions of climate change risk are significantly positively associated with the environmental, social, and governance score, firm size, and membership in a carbon-intensive sector. In addition, we find that managers in firms operating in a geographic area that is sensitive to the consequences of global warming are more likely to perceive and formally recognize carbon-related risks in their CDP reports.

Keywords: carbon actions, CDP, climate change risk, risk perception

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Authors: Loha Hashimy, Isabella Castillo

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In today's rapidly evolving technological landscape, the importance of precise navigation and mapping systems cannot be understated. As various sectors undergo transformative changes, the market potential for Advanced Mapping and Management Systems (AMMS) emerges as a critical focus area. The Galileo/GNSS-Based Autonomous Mobile Mapping System (GAMMS) project, specifically targeted toward high-definition mapping (HDM), endeavours to provide insights into this market within the broader context of the geomatics and navigation fields. With the growing integration of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) into our transportation systems, the relevance and demand for sophisticated mapping solutions like HDM have become increasingly pertinent. The research employed a meticulous, lean, stepwise, and interconnected methodology to ensure a comprehensive assessment. Beginning with the identification of pivotal project results, the study progressed into a systematic market screening. This was complemented by an exhaustive desk research phase that delved into existing literature, data, and trends. To ensure the holistic validity of the findings, extensive consultations were conducted. Academia and industry experts provided invaluable insights through interviews, questionnaires, and surveys. This multi-faceted approach facilitated a layered analysis, juxtaposing secondary data with primary inputs, ensuring that the conclusions were both accurate and actionable. Our investigation unearthed a plethora of drivers steering the HD maps landscape. These ranged from technological leaps, nuanced market demands, and influential economic factors to overarching socio-political shifts. The meteoric rise of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and the shift towards app-based transportation solutions, such as Uber, stood out as significant market pull factors. A nuanced PESTEL analysis further enriched our understanding, shedding light on political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal facets influencing the HD maps market trajectory. Simultaneously, potential roadblocks were identified. Notable among these were barriers related to high initial costs, concerns around data quality, and the challenges posed by a fragmented and evolving regulatory landscape. The GAMMS project serves as a beacon, illuminating the vast opportunities that lie ahead for the HD mapping sector. It underscores the indispensable role of HDM in enhancing navigation, ensuring safety, and providing pinpoint, accurate location services. As our world becomes more interconnected and reliant on technology, HD maps emerge as a linchpin, bridging gaps and enabling seamless experiences. The research findings accentuate the imperative for stakeholders across industries to recognize and harness the potential of HD mapping, especially as we stand on the cusp of a transportation revolution heralded by Autonomous Vehicles and advanced geomatic solutions.

Keywords: high-definition mapping (HDM), autonomous vehicles, PESTEL analysis, market drivers

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Authors: Mokhtar Nikgoo

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Civil engineering is one of the disciplines that shows the application of science in creating construction and civil engineering. That is, everything that returns to the population of a country, such as dams, airports, roads, bridges, towers, tunnels, telecommunication towers, buildings resistant to earthquakes, floods and fires, power plants and light, cheap and quality materials for construction. And the construction is included in the scope of work of the civil engineer. Civil engineering covers a wide range of tasks. That is, for the construction of buildings, bridges, towers, tunnels, roads, silos, or sewage networks, an efficient civil engineer is needed at the beginning, in addition to complying with the technical and operational aspects, he also works economically. Because being economical is a principle in civil engineering. Is. This field at the undergraduate level has three majors: civil-building, civil-mapping and civil-water.

Keywords: civil engineering, construction, surveying, mapping, pile

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Authors: G. Shabib, Esam H. Abd-Elhameed, G. Magdy

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In this paper, a comparison of discrete time PID, PSS controllers is presented through small signal stability of power system comprising of one machine connected to infinite bus system. This comparison achieved by using a new approach of discretization which converts the S-domain model of analog controllers to a Z-domain model to enhance the damping of a single machine power system. The new method utilizes the Plant Input Mapping (PIM) algorithm. The proposed algorithm is stable for any sampling rate, as well as it takes the closed loop characteristic into consideration. On the other hand, the traditional discretization methods such as Tustin’s method is produce satisfactory results only; when the sampling period is sufficiently low.

Keywords: PSS, power system stabilizer PID, proportional-integral-derivative PIM, plant input mapping

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Authors: S. U. Kunya, S. A. Mohammad

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Construction projects in Nigeria are characterized with risks emanating from delays and accompanying cost-overruns. The aim of the study was to identify and assess factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies in the execution of public construction project in North-East Nigeria. Data was collected with the aid of a well-structured questionnaire administered to three identified projects in the North-east. Data collected were analysed using the severity index. Findings revealed political involvement, selection of inexperienced contractors and lack of coordinated public sector strategy as the most severe factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies. The study recommended that: formulation of laws to prevent negative political meddling in construction projects; selection of experienced, risk-informed contractors; and comprehensive risk assessment and planning on all public construction projects.

Keywords: factors, Nigeria, north-east, public projects, risk management, strategies, utilization

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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The majority of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on the rationale that the design, construction, operation, and financing of a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a single contractual framework. PPP project risks normally include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation for decades. Undoubtedly the most serious consequences of risks during the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are amongst the most broadly used scenarios in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change over the life cycle of a PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector normally has to cover all price distress from these risks. At least there is plenty evidence to suggest that price distress is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of construction risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies, and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: Public Private Partnership (PPP), Risk, Risk Pricing, System Dynamics (SD), construction price

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Authors: Abduladim Maitieg, Kevin Lynch, Mark Johnson

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The goal of the Libyan Environmental General Authority (EGA) and National Oil Corporation (Department of Health, Safety & Environment) during the last 5 years has been to adopt a common approach to coastal and marine spatial planning. Protection and planning of the coastal zone is a significant for Libya, due to the length of coast and, the high rate of oil export, and spills’ potential negative impacts on coastal and marine habitats. Coastal resource scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term and short-term consequences of oil spill impact and available response options that would provide an integrated perspective on mitigation. To investigate that, this paper reviews the Misratah coastal parameters to present the physical and human controls and attributes of coastal habitats as the first step in understanding how they may be damaged by an oil spill. This paper also investigates costal resources, providing a better understanding of the resources and factors that impact the integrity of the ecosystem. Therefore, the study described the potential spatial distribution of oil spill risk and the coastal resources value, and also created spatial maps of coastal resources and their vulnerability to oil spills along the coast. This study proposes an analysis of coastal resources condition at a local level in the Misratah region of the Mediterranean Sea, considering the implementation of coastal and marine spatial planning over time as an indication of the will to manage urban development. Oil spill contamination analysis and their impact on the coastal resources depend on (1) oil spill sequence, (2) oil spill location, (3) oil spill movement near the coastal area. The resulting maps show natural, socio-economic activity, environmental resources along of the coast, and oil spill location. Moreover, the study provides significant geodatabase information which is required for coastal sensitivity index mapping and coastal management studies. The outcome of study provides the information necessary to set an Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the Misratah shoreline, which can be used for management of coastal resources and setting boundaries for each coastal sensitivity sectors, as well as to help planners measure the impact of oil spills on coastal resources. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were used in order to store and illustrate the spatial convergence of existing socio-economic activities such as fishing, tourism, and the salt industry, and ecosystem components such as sea turtle nesting area, Sabkha habitats, and migratory birds feeding sites. These geodatabases help planners investigate the vulnerability of coastal resources to an oil spill.

Keywords: coastal and marine spatial planning advancement training, GIS mapping, human uses, ecosystem components, Misratah coast, Libyan, oil spill

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Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

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An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

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Authors: Zidane Abderrezzaq

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In contrast to recent successful developments in macro monetary policies, the modelling, measurement and management of systemic financial stability has remained problematical. Indeed, the focus of most effort has been on improving individual, rather than systemic, bank risk management; the Basel II objective has been to bring regulatory bank capital into line with the (sophisticated) banks’ assessment of their own economic capital. Even at the individual bank level there are concerns over appropriate diversification allowances, differing objectives of banks and regulators, the need for a buffer over regulatory minima, and the distinction between expected and unexpected losses (EL and UL). At the systemic level the quite complex and prescriptive content of Basel II raises dangers of ‘endogenous risk’ and procyclicality. Simulations suggest that this latter could be a serious problem. In an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tiering) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out.

Keywords: systemic stability, financial regulation, credit risk, systemic risk

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Authors: Twarakavi Venkata Suresh Kumar, Sailaja Kumar, B. Eswara Reddy

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In a world of tremendous technical developments, effective and efficient higher education has always been a major challenge. The rising number of educational institutions have made it mandatory for healthy competitions among the institutions. To evaluate the qualitative competence of these educations institutions in engineering and technology and related disciplines, an efficient assessment technique in internal and external quality has to be followed. To achieve this, the curriculum is to be developed into courses, and each course has to be presented in the form teaching lesson plan consisting of topics and session outcome known as Course Outcomes (COs), that easily map into different Programme Outcomes (POs). The major objective of these methodologies is to provide quality technical education to its students. Detailed clear weightage in CO-PO mapping helps in proper measurable COs and to devise the POs attainment is an important issue. This ensures in assisting the achievement of the POs with proper weightage to POs, and also improves the successive curriculum development. In this paper, we presented a methodology for mapping CO and PO considering the key elements supported by each PO. This approach is useful in evaluating the attainment of POs which is based on the attainment of COs using the existing data from students' marks taken from various test items. Such direct assessment tools are used to measure the degree to which each student has achieved each course learning outcome by the completion of the course. Hence, these results are also useful in measuring the PO attainment for improving the programme vision and mission.

Keywords: attainment, course outcomes, programme outcomes, educational institutions

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Authors: Wassamon Kun-Amornpong

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When a financial crisis occurs, there will be a law and regulatory reform in order to manage the turmoil and prevent a future crisis. One of the most important regulatory efforts to help cope with systemic risk and a financial crisis is the third version of the Basel Accord. Basel III has introduced some measures and tools (e.g., systemic risk buffer, countercyclical buffer, capital conservation buffer and liquidity risk) in order to mitigate systemic risk. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these measures in Basel III in adequately addressing the problem of contagious runs that can quickly spread throughout the financial system is questionable. This paper seeks to contribute to the knowledge regarding the role of the Basel Accords in mitigating systemic risk. The research question is to what extent the Basel Accords can help control systemic risk in the financial markets? The paper tackles this question by analysing the concept of systemic risk. It will then examine the weaknesses of the Basel Accords before and after the Global financial crisis in 2008. Finally, it will suggest some possible solutions in order to improve the Basel Accord. The rationale of the study is the fact that academic works on systemic risk and financial crises are largely studied from economic or financial perspective. There is comparatively little research from the legal and regulatory perspective. The finding of the paper is that there are some problems in all of the three pillars of the Basel Accords. With regards to Pillar I, the risk model is excessively complex while the benefits of its complexity are doubtful. Concerning Pillar II, the effectiveness of the risk-based supervision in preventing systemic risk still depends largely upon its design and implementation. Factors such as organizational culture of the regulator and the political context within which the risk-based supervision operates might be a barrier against the success of Pillar II. Meanwhile, Pillar III could not provide adequate market discipline as market participants do not always act in a rational way. In addition, the too-big-to-fail perception reduced the incentives of the market participants to monitor risks. There has been some development in resolution measure (e.g. TLAC and MREL) which might potentially help strengthen the incentive of the market participants to monitor risks. However, those measures have some weaknesses. The paper argues that if the weaknesses in the three pillars are resolved, it can be expected that the Basel Accord could contribute to the mitigation of systemic risk in a more significant way in the future.

Keywords: Basel accords, financial regulation, risk-based supervision, systemic risk

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Authors: Olusegun Oguntoke, Aramide Y. Tijani, Olayide R. Adetunji

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Environmental noise has become a major threat to the quality of human life, and it is generally more severe in cities. This study assessed the level of environmental noise, mapped the spatial pattern at different times of the day and examined the association with morbidity of auditory ailments in Abeokuta metropolis. The entire metropolis was divided into 80 cells (areas) of 1000 m by 1000 m; out of which 33 were randomly selected for noise levels assessment. Portable noise meter (AR824) was used to measure noise level, and Global Positioning System (Garmin GPS-72H) was employed to take the coordinates of the sample sites for mapping. Risk map of the noise levels was produced using Kriging interpolation techniques based on the spatial spread of measured noise values across the study area. Data on cases of hearing impairments were collected from four major hospitals in the city. Data collected from field measurements and medical records were subjected to descriptive (frequency and percentage) and inferential (mean, ANOVA and correlation) statistics using SPSS (version 20.0). ArcMap 10.1 was employed for spatial analysis and mapping. Results showed mean noise levels range at morning (42.4 ± 4.14 – 88.2 ± 15.1 dBA), afternoon (45.0 ± 6.72– 86.4 ± 12.5 dBA) and evening (51.0 ± 6.55–84.4 ± 5.19 dBA) across the study area. The interpolated maps identified Kuto, Okelowo, Isale-Igbein, and Sapon as high noise risk areas. These are the central business district and nucleus of Abeokuta metropolis where commercial activities, high traffic volume, and clustered buildings exist. The monitored noise levels varied significantly among the sampled areas in the morning, afternoon and evening (p < 0.05). A significant correlation was found between diagnosed cases of auditory ailments and noise levels measured in the morning (r=0.39 at p < 0.05). Common auditory ailments found across the metropolis included impaired hearing (25.8%), tinnitus (16.4%) and otitis (15.0%). The most affected age groups were between 11-30 years while the male gender had more cases of hearing impairments (51.2%) than the females. The study revealed that environmental noise levels exceeded the recommended standards in the morning, afternoon and evening in 60.6%, 61% and 72.7% of the sampled areas respectively. Summarily, environmental noise in the study area is high and contributes to the morbidity of auditory ailments. Areas identified as hot spots of noise pollution should be avoided in the location of noise sensitive activities while environmental noise monitoring should be included as part of the mandate of the regulatory agencies in Nigeria.

Keywords: noise pollution, associative analysis, auditory impairment, urban, human exposure

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Authors: Aliyu J. Abubakar, Mazlan Hashim, Amin B. Pour

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Exploiting geothermal resources for either power, home heating, Spa, greenhouses, industrial or tourism requires an initial identification of suitable areas. This can be done cost-effectively using remote sensing satellite imagery which has synoptic capabilities of covering large areas in real time and by identifying possible areas of hydrothermal alteration and minerals related to Geothermal systems. Earth features and minerals are known to have unique diagnostic spectral reflectance characteristics that can be used to discriminate them. The focus of this paper is to investigate the applicability of mapping hydrothermal alteration in relation to geothermal systems (thermal springs) at Yankari Park Northeastern Nigeria, using Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) satellite data for resource exploration. The ASTER Short Wave Infrared (SWIR) bands are used to highlight and discriminate alteration areas by employing sophisticated digital image processing techniques including image transformations and spectral mapping methods. Field verifications are conducted at the Yankari Park using hand held Global Positioning System (GPS) monterra to identify locations of hydrothermal alteration and rock samples obtained at the vicinity and surrounding areas of the ‘Mawulgo’ and ‘Wikki’ thermal springs. X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) results of rock samples obtained from the field validated hydrothermal alteration by the presence of indicator minerals including; Dickite, Kaolinite, Hematite and Quart. The study indicated the applicability of mapping geothermal anomalies for resource exploration in unmapped sparsely vegetated savanna environment characterized by subtle surface manifestations such as thermal springs. The results could have implication for geothermal resource exploration especially at the prefeasibility stages by narrowing targets for comprehensive surveys and in unexplored savanna regions where expensive airborne surveys are unaffordable.

Keywords: geothermal exploration, image enhancement, minerals, spectral mapping

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Authors: Kirsten A. Bartels

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'Never again' and 'Lest we forget' have long been messages associated with the events of the Shoah. Yet as we attempt to learn from the past, we must find new ways to engage with its memories. The preservation of the culture and the value of tradition are critical factors in Jane Yolen's works of Holocaust fiction, The Devil's Arithmetic and Mapping the Bones, emphasized through the importance of remembering. That word, in its multitude of forms (remember, remembering, memories), occurs no less than ten times in the first four pages and over one hundred times in the one hundred and sixty-four-page narrative The Devil’s Arithmetic. While Yolen takes a different approach to showcasing the importance of memory in Mapping the Bones, it is of equal import in this work and arguably to the future of Holocaust knowing. The idea of remembering, the desire to remember, and the ability to remember, are explored in three divergent ways in The Devil’s Arithmetic. First, in the importance to remember a past which is not her own – to understand history or acquired memories. Second, in the protagonist's actual or initial memories, those of her life in modern-day New York. Third, in a reverse mode of forgetting and trying to reacquire that which has been lost -- as Hannah is processed in the camp and she forgets everything, all worlds prior to the camp are lost to her. As numbers replace names, Yolen stresses the importance of self-identity or owned memories. In addition, the importance of relaying memory, the transitions of memory from perspective, and the ideas of reflective telling are explored in Mapping the Bones -- through the telling of the story through the lens of one of the twins as the events are unfolding; and then the through the reflective telling from the lens of the other twin. Parallel to the exploration of the intersemiosis of memory is the discussion of literary shadows (foreshadowing, backshadowing, and side-shadowing) and their impact on the reader's experience with Yolen's narrative. For in this type of exploration, one cannot look at the events described in Yolen's work and not also contemplate the figurative shadows cast.

Keywords: holocaust literature, memory, narrative, Yolen

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Authors: Aminu Abdullahi Isyaku

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Semi-arid Bornu basin in northeast Nigeria is characterised with flat topography, thick cover sediments and lack of continuous bedrock outcrops discernible for field geology. This paper presents the methodology for the characterisation of neotectonic surface structures and surface lithology in the north-eastern Bornu basin in northeast Nigeria as an alternative approach to field geological mapping using free multispectral Landsat 7 ETM+, SRTM DEM and ASAR Earth Observation datasets. Spectral lithological mapping herein developed utilised spectral discrimination of the surface features identified on Landsat 7 ETM+ images to infer on the lithology using four steps including; computations of band combination images; band ratio images; supervised image classification and inferences of the lithological compositions. Two complementary approaches to lineament mapping are carried out in this study involving manual digitization and automatic lineament extraction to validate the structural lineaments extracted from the Landsat 7 ETM+ image mosaic covering the study. A comparison between the mapped surface lineaments and lineament zones show good geospatial correlation and identified the predominant NE-SW and NW-SE structural trends in the basin. Topographic profiles across different parts of the Bama Beach Ridge palaeoshorelines in the basin appear to show different elevations across the feature. It is determined that most of the drainage systems in the northeastern Bornu basin are structurally controlled with drainage lines terminating against the paleo-lake border and emptying into the Lake Chad mainly arising from the extensive topographic high-stand Bama Beach Ridge palaeoshoreline.

Keywords: Bornu Basin, lineaments, spectral lithology, tectonics

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Authors: Sharaf S. Omar

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In the current study, level and prevalence of deoxynivalenol (DON), aflatoxin B1 AFB1), zearalenone (ZEN), and ochratoxin A (OTA) in fried poultry eggs in Jordan was investigated. Poultry egg samples (n = 250) were collected. The level of DON, AFB1, ZEN and OTA in the white and yolk of poultry eggs was measured using LC-MS-MS. The health risk assessment was calculated using Margin of Exposures (MOEs) for AFB1 and OTA and hazard index (HI) for ZEN and DON. The highest prevalence in yolk and white of eggs was related to ZEN (96.56%) and OTA (97.44%), respectively. Also, the highest level in white and yolk was related to DON (1.07µg/kg) and DON (1.65 µg/kg), respectively. Level of DON in the yolk of eggs was significantly higher than white of eggs (P-value < 0.05). Risk assessment indicated that exposed population are at high risk of AFB1 (MOEs < 10,000) in fried poultry eggs.

Keywords: mycotoxins 2, aflatoxin b1, risk assessment, poultry egg

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Authors: Charuvan Kasemsap

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This research was studied in Bangnampriao District, Chachernsao Province, Thailand. The primary data relating to flooding, drought, and saline intrusion problem on agriculture were collected by surveying, focus group, and in-depth interview with agricultural officers, technical officers of irrigation department, and local government leader of Bangnampriao District. The likelihood and consequence of risk were determined the risk index by risk assessment matrix. In addition, the risk index and the total coping capacity scores were investigated the vulnerability index by vulnerability matrix. It was found that the high-risk drought and saline intrusion was dramatically along Bang Pakong River owing to the end destination of Chao Phraya Irrigation system of Central Thailand. This leads yearly the damage of rice paddy, mango tree, orchard, and fish pond. Therefore, some agriculture avoids rice growing during January to May, and also pumps fresh water from a canal into individual storage pond. However, Bangnampriao District will be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change. Monthly precipitations are expected to decrease in number; dry seasons are expected to be more in number and longer in duration. Thus, the risk and vulnerability of agriculture are also increasing. Adaptation strategies need to be put in place in order to enhance the resilience of the agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, bangnampriao, climate change, risk assessment

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Authors: Qisheng Hu, Jianglei Han, Yue Yang, My Hoa Ha

Abstract:

When a company is considering purchasing software for commercial use, contract risk assessment is critical to identify risks to mitigate the potential adverse business impact, e.g., security, financial and regulatory risks. Contract risk assessment requires reviewers with specialized knowledge and time to evaluate the legal documents manually. Specifically, validating contracts for a software vendor requires the following steps: manual screening, interpreting legal documents, and extracting risk-prone segments. To automate the process, we proposed a framework to assist legal contract document risk identification, leveraging pre-trained deep learning models and natural language processing techniques. Given a set of pre-defined risk evaluation problems, our framework utilizes the pre-trained transformer-based models for question-answering to identify risk-prone sections in a contract. Furthermore, the question-answering model encodes the concatenated question-contract text and predicts the start and end position for clause extraction. Due to the limited labelled dataset for training, we leveraged transfer learning by fine-tuning the models with the CUAD dataset to enhance the model. On a dataset comprising 287 contract documents and 2000 labelled samples, our best model achieved an F1 score of 0.687.

Keywords: contract risk assessment, NLP, transfer learning, question answering

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Authors: Mohd Azraei Pangah Pa'at, Mohd Ruzlin Mohd Mokhtar, Norhidayu Rameli, Tashia Marie Anthony, Huzainie Shafi Abd Halim

Abstract:

Partial Discharge (PD) diagnostic mapping testing is one of the main diagnostic testing techniques that are widely used in the field or onsite testing for underground power cable in medium voltage level. The existence of PD activities is an early indication of insulation weakness hence early detection of PD activities can be determined and provides an initial prediction on the condition of the cable. To effectively manage the results of PD Mapping test, it is important to have acceptable criteria to facilitate prioritization of mitigation action. Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) through Distribution Network (DN) division have developed PD severity model name Severity Index (SI) for offline PD mapping test since 2007 based on onsite test experience. However, this severity index recommendation action had never been revised since its establishment. At presence, PD measurements data have been extensively increased, hence the severity level indication and the effectiveness of the recommendation actions can be analyzed and verified again. Based on the new revision, the recommended action to be taken will be able to reflect the actual defect condition. Hence, will be accurately prioritizing preventive action plan and minimizing maintenance expenditure.

Keywords: partial discharge, severity index, diagnostic testing, medium voltage, power cable

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Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

Abstract:

This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

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Authors: Hannes Koester

Abstract:

Driven by difficult market conditions and increasing regulations, many banks are making the strategic decision to restructure their portfolio by divesting several business segments. Using a unique dataset of 727 portfolio restructuring announcements by 161 international listed banks over the period 1999 to 2015, we investigate the impact of restructuring measurements on the stock performance as well as on the banks’ profitability and risk. Employing the event study methodology, we detect positive stock market reactions on the announcement of restructuring measurements. These positive stock market reactions indicate that shareholders reward banks’ specialization activities. However, the results of the system GMM regressions show a negative relation between restructuring measurements and banks’ return on assets and a positive relation towards the individual and systemic risk of banks. These empirical results indicate that there is no guarantee that portfolio restructurings will result in a more profitable and less risky institution.

Keywords: bank performance, bank risk, divestiture, restructuring, systemic risk

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

Abstract:

Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: perceived risk, online contracts, Saudi Arabia, consumer protection

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

Abstract:

Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability

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Authors: David Glew, Felix Thomas, Matthew Brooke-Peat

Abstract:

Improving the thermal performance of homes is seen as an essential step in achieving climate change, fuel security, fuel poverty targets. One of the most effective thermal retrofits is to insulate solid walls. However, it has been observed that applying insulation to the internal face of solid walls reduces the surface temperature of the inner wall leaf, which may introduce condensation risk and may interrupt seasonal moisture accumulation and dissipation. This research quantifies the extent to which the risk of condensation and moisture accumulation in the wall increases (which can increase the risk of timber rot) following the installation of six different types of internal wall insulation. In so doing, it compares how risk is affected by both the thermal resistance, thickness, and breathability of the insulation. Thermal bridging, surface temperatures, condensation risk, and moisture accumulation are evaluated using hygrothermal simulation software before and after the thermal upgrades. The research finds that installing internal wall insulation will always introduce some risk of condensation and moisture. However, it identifies that risks were present prior to insulation and that breathable materials and insulation with lower resistance have lower risks than alternative insulation options. The implications of this may be that building standards that encourage the enhanced thermal performance of solid walls may be introducing moisture risks into homes.

Keywords: condensation risk, hygrothermal simulation, internal wall insulation, thermal bridging

Procedia PDF Downloads 137