Search results for: generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)

Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Accurate forecasting of project performance metrics is crucial for successfully managing and delivering urban road reconstruction projects. Traditional methods often rely on static baseline plans and fail to consider the dynamic nature of project progress and external factors. This research proposes a machine learning-based approach to forecast project performance metrics, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category in an urban road reconstruction project. The proposed model utilizes time series forecasting techniques, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance based on historical data and project progress. The model also incorporates external factors, such as weather patterns and resource availability, as features to enhance the accuracy of forecasts. By applying the predictive power of machine learning, the performance forecasting model enables proactive identification of potential deviations from the baseline plan, which allows project managers to take timely corrective actions. The research aims to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach using a case study of an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's forecasts with actual project performance data. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry, offering a data-driven solution for improving project performance monitoring and control.

Keywords: project performance forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting, cost variance, earned value management

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Authors: George-Anokwuru Chioma Chidinma Bernadette

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This paper investigated the effect of trade liberalization on domestic private investment in Nigeria from 1981 to 2020. To achieve this objective, secondary data on domestic private investment, trade openness, exchange rate and interest rate were sourced from the statistical bulletin of Nigeria’s apex bank. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was used as the main analytical tool. The ARDL Bounds test revealed the existence of long run association among the variables. The results revealed that trade openness and exchange rate have positive and insignificant relationship with domestic private investment both in the long and short runs. At the same time, interest rate has negative relationship with domestic private investment both in the long and short runs. Therefore, it was concluded that there is no significant relationship between trade openness, exchange rate, interest rate and domestic private investment in Nigeria during the period of study. Based on the findings, the study recommended that government should formulate trade policies that will encourage the growth of domestic private investment in Nigeria. To achieve this, government should ensure consistency in trade policies and at the same time strengthen the existing policies to build investors’ confidence. Also, government should make available an investment-friendly environment, as well as monitor real sector operators to ensure that foreign exchange allocations are not diverted. Government should increase capital investment in education, housing, transportation, agriculture, health, power, road construction, national defense, among others that will help the various sectors of the economy to function very well thereby making the business environment friendly thereby enhancing the growth and development of the country.

Keywords: trade openness, domestic private investment, ARDL, exchange rate

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Authors: Peeyush Verma, Anil Kumar, Anju Rawlley, Chanchal Mehra

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India's school-going population is largely served by an educational system that is, in most rural parts, stuck with methods that emphasize rote learning, endless examinations, and monotonous classroom activities. Rural government schools are generally seen as having poor infrastructure, poor support system and low motivation for teaching as well as learning. It was experienced during the survey of this project that there is lesser motivation of rural boys and girls to attend their schools and still less likely chances to study science, tabooed as “difficult”. An experiment was conducted with the help of Rural Knowledge Network Project through Department of Science and Technology, Govt of India in five remote villages of Sehore District in Madhya Pradesh (India) during 2012-2015. These schools are located about 50-70 Km away from Bhopal, the capital of Madhya Pradesh and can distinctively qualify as average rural schools. Three tier methodology was adapted to unfold the experiment. In first tier randomly selected boys and girls from these schools were taken to a daylong visit to the Regional Science Centre located in Bhopal. In second tier, randomly selected half of those who visited earlier were again taken to the Science Centre to make models of Science. And in third tier, all the boys and girls studying science were exposed to video lectures and study material through web. The results have shown an interesting face towards learning science among youths in rural schools through peer learning or incremental learning. The students who had little or no interest in learning science became good learners and queries started pouring in from the neighbourhood village as well as a few parents requested to take their wards in the project to learn science. The paper presented is a case study of the experiment conducted in five rural schools of Sehore District. It reflects upon the methodology of developing awareness and interest among students and finally engaging them in popularising science through peer-to-peer learning using incremental learning elements. The students, who had a poor perception about science initially, had changed their attitude towards learning science during the project period. The results of this case, however, cannot be generalised unless replicated in the same setting elsewhere.

Keywords: popularisation of science, science temper, incremental learning, peer-to-peer learning

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Authors: Yohanna Panshak

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The impact of macroeconomic instability on economic growth and prosperity has been at forefront in many discourses among researchers and policy makers and has generated a lot of controversies over the years. This has generated series of research efforts towards understanding the remote causes of this phenomenon; its nature, determinants and how it can be targeted and mitigated. While others have opined that the root cause of macroeconomic flux in Nigeria is attributed to Oil-Price volatility, others viewed the issue as resulting from some constellation of structural constraints both within and outside the shores of the country. Research works of scholars such as [Akpan (2009), Aliyu (2009), Olomola (2006), etc] argue that oil volatility can determine economic growth or has the potential of doing so. On the contrary, [Darby (1982), Cerralo (2005) etc] share the opinion that it can slow down growth. The earlier argument rest on the understanding that for a net balance of oil exporting economies, price upbeat directly increases real national income through higher export earnings, whereas, the latter allude to the case of net-oil importing countries (which experience price rises, increased input costs, reduced non-oil demand, low investment, fall in tax revenues and ultimately an increase in budget deficit which will further reduce welfare level). Therefore, assessing the precise impact of oil price volatility on virtually any economy is a function of whether it is an oil-exporting or importing nation. Research on oil price volatility and its outcome on the growth of the Nigerian economy are evolving and in a march towards resolving Nigeria’s macroeconomic instability as long as oil revenue still remain the mainstay and driver of socio-economic engineering. Recently, a major importer of Nigeria’s oil- United States made a historic breakthrough in more efficient source of energy for her economy with the capacity of serving significant part of the world. This undoubtedly suggests a threat to the exchange earnings of the country. The need to understand fluctuation in its major export commodity is critical. This paper leans on the Renaissance growth theory with greater focus on theoretical work of Lee (1998); a leading proponent of this school who makes a clear cut of difference between oil price changes and oil price volatility. Based on the above background, the research seeks to empirically examine the impact oil-price volatility on government expenditure using quarterly time series data spanning 1986:1 to 2014:4. Vector Auto Regression (VAR) econometric approach shall be used. The structural properties of the model shall be tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron. Relevant diagnostics tests of heteroscedasticity, serial correlation and normality shall also be carried out. Policy recommendation shall be offered on the empirical findings and believes it assist policy makers not only in Nigeria but the world-over.

Keywords: oil-price, volatility, prosperity, budget, expenditure

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Authors: Tracey Bone

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Deaf inmates, whose first or preferred language is a Signed Language, experience barriers to accessing the necessary two-way communication with correctional staff, and the educational and social programs that will enhance their eligibility for conditional release from the federal prison system in Canada. The development of visual content to enhance the knowledge and skill development of correctional staff is a contemporary strategy intended to significantly improve the correctional experience for deaf inmates. This presentation reports on the development of two distinct training videos created to enhance staff’s understanding of the needs of deaf inmates; one a two-part simulation of an interaction with a deaf inmate, the second an interview with a deaf academic. Part one of video one demonstrates the challenges and misunderstandings inherent in communicating across languages without a qualified sign language interpreter; the second part demonstrates the ease of communication when communication needs are met. Video two incorporates the experiences of a deaf academic to provide the cultural grounding necessary to educate staff in the unique experiences associated with being a visual language user. Lack of staff understanding or awareness of deaf culture and language must not be acceptable reasons for the inadequate treatment of deaf visual language users in federal prisons. This paper demonstrates a contemporary approach to meeting the human rights and needs of this unique and often ignored inmate subpopulation. The deaf community supports this visual approach to enhancing staff understanding of the unique needs of this population. A study of its effectiveness is currently underway.

Keywords: accommodations, American Sign Language (ASL), deaf inmates, sensory deprivation

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Authors: M. Mulumpwa, W. W. L. Jere, M. Lazaro, A. H. N. Mtethiwa

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The study considered Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model to forecast the monthly data from the Lake Malawi water levels for the period 1986 through 2015. The appropriate model was chosen based on SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)S. The Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Box–Ljung statistics, correlogram and distribution of residual errors were estimated. The SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected to forecast the monthly data of the Lake Malawi water levels from August, 2015 to December, 2021. The plotted time series showed that the Lake Malawi water levels are decreasing since 2010 to date but not as much as was the case in 1995 through 1997. The future forecast of the Lake Malawi water levels until 2021 showed a mean of 474.47 m ranging from 473.93 to 475.02 meters with a confidence interval of 80% and 90% against registered mean of 473.398 m in 1997 and 475.475 m in 1989 which was the lowest and highest water levels in the lake respectively since 1986. The forecast also showed that the water levels of Lake Malawi will drop by 0.57 meters as compared to the mean water levels recorded in the previous years. These results suggest that the Lake Malawi water level may not likely go lower than that recorded in 1997. Therefore, utilisation and management of water-related activities and programs among others on the lake should provide room for such scenarios. The findings suggest a need to manage the Lake Malawi jointly and prudently with other stakeholders starting from the catchment area. This will reduce impacts of anthropogenic activities on the lake’s water quality, water level, aquatic and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems thereby ensuring its resilience to climate change impacts.

Keywords: forecasting, Lake Malawi, water levels, water level fluctuation, climate change, anthropogenic activities

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Authors: Hounyèmè Romuald, Mama Daouda, Argillier Christine

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The present study focused on the use of benthic macrofauna to define the reference state of an anthropized lagoon (Nokoué-Benin) from the responses of relevant metrics to proxies. The approach used is a combination of a joint species distribution model and Bayesian networks. The joint species distribution model was used to select the relevant metrics and generate posterior probabilities that were then converted into posterior response probabilities for each of the quality classes (pressure levels), which will constitute the conditional probability tables allowing the establishment of the probabilistic graph representing the different causal relationships between metrics and pressure proxies. For the definition of the reference thresholds, the predicted responses for low-pressure levels were read via probability density diagrams. Observations collected during high and low water periods spanning 03 consecutive years (2004-2006), sampling 33 macroinvertebrate taxa present at all seasons and sampling points, and measurements of 14 environmental parameters were used as application data. The study demonstrated reliable inferences, selection of 07 relevant metrics and definition of quality thresholds for each environmental parameter. The relevance of the metrics as well as the reference thresholds for ecological assessment despite the small sample size, suggests the potential for wider applicability of the approach for aquatic ecosystem monitoring and assessment programs in developing countries generally characterized by a lack of monitoring data.

Keywords: pressure proxies, bayesian inference, bioindicators, acadjas, functional traits

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

Abstract:

In construction projects, predicting project performance metrics accurately is essential for effective management and successful delivery. However, conventional methods often depend on fixed baseline plans, disregarding the evolving nature of project progress and external influences. To address this issue, we introduce a distinct approach based on machine learning to forecast key performance indicators, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category within an urban road reconstruction project. Our proposed model leverages time series forecasting techniques, namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance by analyzing historical data and project progress. Additionally, the model incorporates external factors, including weather patterns and resource availability, as features to improve forecast accuracy. By harnessing the predictive capabilities of machine learning, our performance forecasting model enables project managers to proactively identify potential deviations from the baseline plan and take timely corrective measures. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, we conduct a case study on an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's predictions with actual project performance data. The outcomes of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry by providing a data-driven solution for enhancing project performance monitoring and control.

Keywords: project performance forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting, cost variance, schedule variance, earned value management

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Authors: Eduardo Costa

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Hospital strikes in the Portuguese National Health Service (NHS) are becoming increasingly frequent, raising concerns in what respects patient safety. In fact, data shows that mortality rates for patients admitted during strikes are up to 30% higher than for patients admitted in other days. This paper analyses the effects of hospital strikes on patients’ outcomes. Specifically, it analyzes the impact of different strikes (physicians, nurses and other health professionals), on in-hospital mortality rates, readmission rates and length of stay. The paper uses patient-level data containing all NHS hospital admissions in mainland Portugal from 2012 to 2017, together with a comprehensive strike dataset comprising over 250 strike days (19 physicians-strike days, 150 nurses-strike days and 50 other health professionals-strike days) from 135 different strikes. The paper uses a linear probability model and controls for hospital and regional characteristics, time trends, and changes in patients’ composition and diagnoses. Preliminary results suggest a 6-7% increase in in-hospital mortality rates for patients exposed to physicians’ strikes. The effect is smaller for patients exposed to nurses’ strikes (2-5%). Patients exposed to nurses strikes during their stay have, on average, higher 30-days urgent readmission rates (4%). Length of stay also seems to increase for patients exposed to any strike. Results – conditional on further testing, namely on non-linear models - suggest that hospital operations and service levels are partially disrupted during strikes.

Keywords: health sector strikes, in-hospital mortality rate, length of stay, readmission rate

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Authors: Qasim Munye, Juned Islam, Haseeb Qureshi, Syed Jung

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Lung nodules are commonly identified in computed tomography (CT) scans by experienced radiologists at a relatively late stage. Early diagnosis can greatly increase survival. We propose using a pix2pix conditional generative adversarial network to generate realistic images simulating early-stage lung nodule growth. We have applied deep images prior to 2341 slices from 895 computed tomography (CT) scans from the Lung Image Database Consortium (LIDC) dataset to generate pseudo-healthy medical images. From these images, 819 were chosen to train a pix2pix network. We observed that for most of the images, the pix2pix network was able to generate images where the nodule increased in size and intensity across epochs. To evaluate the images, 400 generated images were chosen at random and shown to a medical student beside their corresponding original image. Of these 400 generated images, 384 were defined as satisfactory - meaning they resembled a nodule and were visually similar to the corresponding image. We believe that this generated dataset could be used as training data for neural networks to detect lung nodules at an early stage or to improve the accuracy of such networks. This is particularly significant as datasets containing the growth of early-stage nodules are scarce. This project shows that the combination of deep image prior and generative models could potentially open the door to creating larger datasets than currently possible and has the potential to increase the accuracy of medical classification tasks.

Keywords: medical technology, artificial intelligence, radiology, lung cancer

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Authors: Konrad Steyn, Jacques Laubscher

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South African urban design solutions are mostly aligned with European and North American models that are often not appropriate in addressing some of this country’s challenges such as multiculturalism and decaying urban areas. Sustainable urban redevelopment in South Africa should be comprehensive in nature, sensitive in its manifestation, and should be robust and inclusive in order to achieve social relevance. This paper argues that the success of an urban design intervention is largely dependent on the public’s perceptions and expectations, and the way people participate in shaping their environments. The concept of sustainable urbanism is thus more comprehensive than – yet should undoubtedly include – methods of construction, material usage and climate control principles. The case study is a central element of this research paper. 725 Arcadia Street in Pretoria, was originally commissioned as a food market structure. A starkly contrasting existing modernist adjacent building forms the morphological background. Built in 1969, it is a valuable part of Pretoria’s modernist fabric. It was realised early on that the project should not be a mere localised architectural intervention, but rather an occasion to revitalise the neighbourhood through urban regeneration. Because of the complex and comprehensive nature of the site and rich cultural diversity of the area, a multi-faceted approach seemed the most appropriate response. The methodology for collating data consisted of a combination of literature reviews (regarding the historic original fauna and flora and current plants, observation (frequent site visits) and physical surveying on the neighbourhood level (physical location, connectivity to surrounding landmarks as well as movement systems and pedestrian flows). This was followed by an exploratory design phase, culminating in the present redevelopment proposal. Since built environment interventions are increasingly based on generalised normative guidelines, an approach focusing of urban acupuncture could serve as an alternative. Celebrating the specific urban condition, urban acupuncture offers an opportunity to influence the surrounding urban fabric and achieve urban renewal through physical, social and cultural mediation.

Keywords: neighbourhood, urban renewal, South African urban design solutions, sustainable urban redevelopment

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Authors: Isaac Kayode Ogunlade

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Data acquisition (DAQ) is the process by which physical phenomena from the real world are transformed into an electrical signal(s) that are measured and converted into a digital format for processing, analysis, and storage by a computer. The DAQ is designed using PIC18F4550 microcontroller, communicating with Personal Computer (PC) through USB (Universal Serial Bus). The research deployed initial knowledge of data acquisition system and embedded system to develop a weather data acquisition device using LM35 sensor to measure weather parameters and the use of Artificial Intelligence(Artificial Neural Network - ANN)and statistical approach(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average – ARIMA) to predict precipitation (rainfall). The device is placed by a standard device in the Department of Meteorology, Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA) to know the performance evaluation of the device. Both devices (standard and designed) were subjected to 180 days with the same atmospheric condition for data mining (temperature, relative humidity, and pressure). The acquired data is trained in MATLAB R2012b environment using ANN, and ARIMAto predict precipitation (rainfall). Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Correction Square (R2), and Mean Percentage Error (MPE) was deplored as standardize evaluation to know the performance of the models in the prediction of precipitation. The results from the working of the developed device show that the device has an efficiency of 96% and is also compatible with Personal Computer (PC) and laptops. The simulation result for acquired data shows that ANN models precipitation (rainfall) prediction for two months (May and June 2017) revealed a disparity error of 1.59%; while ARIMA is 2.63%, respectively. The device will be useful in research, practical laboratories, and industrial environments.

Keywords: data acquisition system, design device, weather development, predict precipitation and (FUTA) standard device

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Authors: Harold Mauricio Díaz-Vargas, Cristian Alfonso Jimenez-Castaño, David Augusto Cárdenas-Peña, Guillermo Alberto Ortiz-Gómez, Alvaro Angel Orozco-Gutierrez

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Precise identification of the nerves is a crucial task performed by anesthesiologists for an effective Peripheral Nerve Blocking (PNB). Now, anesthesiologists use ultrasound imaging equipment to guide the PNB and detect nervous structures. However, visual identification of the nerves from ultrasound images is difficult, even for trained specialists, due to artifacts and low contrast. The recent advances in deep learning make neural networks a potential tool for accurate nerve segmentation systems, so addressing the above issues from raw data. The most widely spread U-Net network yields pixel-by-pixel segmentation by encoding the input image and decoding the attained feature vector into a semantic image. This work proposes a conditioning approach and encoder pre-training to enhance the nerve segmentation of traditional U-Nets. Conditioning is achieved by the one-hot encoding of the kind of target nerve a the network input, while the pre-training considers five well-known deep networks for image classification. The proposed approach is tested in a collection of 619 US images, where the best C-UNet architecture yields an 81% Dice coefficient, outperforming the 74% of the best traditional U-Net. Results prove that pre-trained models with the conditional approach outperform their equivalent baseline by supporting learning new features and enriching the discriminant capability of the tested networks.

Keywords: nerve segmentation, U-Net, deep learning, ultrasound imaging, peripheral nerve blocking

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Authors: Benoît Leclercq, Ilse Depraetere

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The goal of this presentation is to shed new light on the semantics and pragmatics of be able to. It presents the results of a corpus analysis based on data from the BNC (British National Corpus), and discusses these results in light of a specific stance on the semantics-pragmatics interface taking into account recent developments. Be able to is often discussed in relation to can and could, all of which can be used to express ability. Such an onomasiological approach often results in the identification of usage constraints for each expression. In the case of be able to, it is the formal properties of the modal expression (unlike can and could, be able to has non-finite forms) that are in the foreground, and the modal expression is described as the verb that conveys future ability. Be able to is also argued to expressed actualised ability in the past (I was able/could to open the door). This presentation aims to provide a more accurate pragmatic-semantic profile of be able to, based on extensive data analysis and one that is embedded in a very explicit view on the semantics-pragmatics interface. A random sample of 3000 examples (1000 for each modal verb) extracted from the BNC was analysed to account for the following issues. First, the challenge is to identify the exact semantic range of be able to. The results show that, contrary to general assumption, be able to does not only express ability but it shares most of the root meanings usually associated with the possibility modals can and could. The data reveal that what is called opportunity is, in fact, the most frequent meaning of be able to. Second, attention will be given to the notion of actualisation. It is commonly argued that be able to is the preferred form when the residue actualises: (1) The only reason he was able to do that was because of the restriction (BNC, spoken) (2) It is only through my imaginative shuffling of the aces that we are able to stay ahead of the pack. (BNC, written) Although this notion has been studied in detail within formal semantic approaches, empirical data is crucially lacking and it is unclear whether actualisation constitutes a conventional (and distinguishing) property of be able to. The empirical analysis provides solid evidence that actualisation is indeed a conventional feature of the modal. Furthermore, the dataset reveals that be able to expresses actualised 'opportunities' and not actualised 'abilities'. In the final part of this paper, attention will be given to the theoretical implications of the empirical findings, and in particular to the following paradox: how can the same expression encode both modal meaning (non-factual) and actualisation (factual)? It will be argued that this largely depends on one's conception of the semantics-pragmatics interface, and that this need not be an issue when actualisation (unlike modality) is analysed as a generalised conversational implicature and thus is considered part of the conventional pragmatic layer of be able to.

Keywords: Actualisation, Modality, Pragmatics, Semantics

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Authors: Yanling Li, Linying Ji, Zita Oravecz, Timothy R. Brick, Michael D. Hunter, Sy-Miin Chow

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Assessing several individuals intensively over time yields intensive longitudinal data (ILD). Even though ILD provide rich information, they also bring other data analytic challenges. One of these is the increased occurrence of missingness with increased study length, possibly under non-ignorable missingness scenarios. Multiple imputation (MI) handles missing data by creating several imputed data sets, and pooling the estimation results across imputed data sets to yield final estimates for inferential purposes. In this article, we introduce dynr.mi(), a function in the R package, Dynamic Modeling in R (dynr). The package dynr provides a suite of fast and accessible functions for estimating and visualizing the results from fitting linear and nonlinear dynamic systems models in discrete as well as continuous time. By integrating the estimation functions in dynr and the MI procedures available from the R package, Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), the dynr.mi() routine is designed to handle possibly non-ignorable missingness in the dependent variables and/or covariates in a user-specified dynamic systems model via MI, with convergence diagnostic check. We utilized dynr.mi() to examine, in the context of a vector autoregressive model, the relationships among individuals’ ambulatory physiological measures, and self-report affect valence and arousal. The results from MI were compared to those from listwise deletion of entries with missingness in the covariates. When we determined the number of iterations based on the convergence diagnostics available from dynr.mi(), differences in the statistical significance of the covariate parameters were observed between the listwise deletion and MI approaches. These results underscore the importance of considering diagnostic information in the implementation of MI procedures.

Keywords: dynamic modeling, missing data, mobility, multiple imputation

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Authors: Martín Pratto Burgos

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The Engineering School of the University of the Republic in Uruguay offers an Introductory Mathematical Course from the second semester of 2019. This course has been designed to assist students in preparing themselves for math courses that are essential for Engineering Degrees, namely Math1, Math2, and Math3 in this research. The research proposes to build a model that can accurately predict the student's activity and academic progress based on their performance in the three essential Mathematical courses. Additionally, there is a need for a model that can forecast the incidence of the Introductory Mathematical Course in the three essential courses approval during the first academic year. The techniques used are Principal Component Analysis and predictive modelling using the Generalised Linear Model. The dataset includes information from 5135 engineering students and 12 different characteristics based on activity and course performance. Two models are created for a type of data that follows a binomial distribution using the R programming language. Model 1 is based on a variable's p-value being less than 0.05, and Model 2 uses the stepAIC function to remove variables and get the lowest AIC score. After using Principal Component Analysis, the main components represented in the y-axis are the approval of the Introductory Mathematical Course, and the x-axis is the approval of Math1 and Math2 courses as well as student activity three years after taking the Introductory Mathematical Course. Model 2, which considered student’s activity, performed the best with an AUC of 0.81 and an accuracy of 84%. According to Model 2, the student's engagement in school activities will continue for three years after the approval of the Introductory Mathematical Course. This is because they have successfully completed the Math1 and Math2 courses. Passing the Math3 course does not have any effect on the student’s activity. Concerning academic progress, the best fit is Model 1. It has an AUC of 0.56 and an accuracy rate of 91%. The model says that if the student passes the three first-year courses, they will progress according to the timeline set by the curriculum. Both models show that the Introductory Mathematical Course does not directly affect the student’s activity and academic progress. The best model to explain the impact of the Introductory Mathematical Course on the three first-year courses was Model 1. It has an AUC of 0.76 and 98% accuracy. The model shows that if students pass the Introductory Mathematical Course, it will help them to pass Math1 and Math2 courses without affecting their performance on the Math3 course. Matching the three predictive models, if students pass Math1 and Math2 courses, they will stay active for three years after taking the Introductory Mathematical Course, and also, they will continue following the recommended engineering curriculum. Additionally, the Introductory Mathematical Course helps students to pass Math1 and Math2 when they start Engineering School. Models obtained in the research don't consider the time students took to pass the three Math courses, but they can successfully assess courses in the university curriculum.

Keywords: machine-learning, engineering, university, education, computational models

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Authors: Robin Devillers, Chantal van Dijk

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Children face ambiguities in everyday language use. Particularly ambiguity in pronoun resolution can be challenging, whereas adults can rapidly identify the antecedent of the mentioned pronoun. Two main factors underlie this process, namely the accessibility of the referent and the syntactic cues of the pronoun. After 200ms, adults have converged the accessibility and the syntactic constraints, while relieving cognitive effort by considering contextual cues. As children are still developing their cognitive capacity, they are not able yet to simultaneously assess and integrate accessibility, contextual cues and syntactic information. As such, they fail to identify the correct referent and possibly fixate more on the competitor in comparison to adults. In this study, Dutch while-clauses were used to investigate the interpretation of pronouns by children. The aim is to a) examine the extent to which 7-10 year old children are able to utilise discourse and syntactic information during online and offline sentence processing and b) analyse the contribution of individual factors, including age, working memory, condition and vocabulary. Adult and child participants are presented with filler-items and while-clauses, and the latter follows a particular structure: ‘Anna and Sophie are sitting in the library. While Anna is reading a book, she is taking a sip of water.’ This sentence illustrates the ambiguous situation, as it is unclear whether ‘she’ refers to Anna or Sophie. In the unambiguous situation, either Anna or Sophie would be substituted by a boy, such as ‘Peter’. The pronoun in the second sentence will unambiguously refer to one of the characters due to the syntactic constraints of the pronoun. Children’s and adults’ responses were measured by means of a visual world paradigm. This paradigm consisted of two characters, of which one was the referent (the target) and the other was the competitor. A sentence was presented and followed by a question, which required the participant to choose which character was the referent. Subsequently, this paradigm yields an online (fixations) and offline (accuracy) score. These findings will be analysed using Generalised Additive Mixed Models, which allow for a thorough estimation of the individual variables. These findings will contribute to the scientific literature in several ways; firstly, the use of while-clauses has not been studied much and it’s processing has not yet been identified. Moreover, online pronoun resolution has not been investigated much in both children and adults, and therefore, this study will contribute to adults and child’s pronoun resolution literature. Lastly, pronoun resolution has not been studied yet in Dutch and as such, this study adds to the languages

Keywords: pronouns, online language processing, Dutch, eye-tracking, first language acquisition, language development

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Authors: Bernard Igoche Igoche, Olumuyiwa Matthew, Peter Bednar, Alexander Gegov

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This study presents an ontology-driven approach for knowledge discovery and validation from admission databases in Nigerian polytechnic institutions. The research aims to address the challenges of extracting meaningful insights from vast amounts of admission data and utilizing them for decision-making and process improvement. The proposed methodology combines the knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) process with a structural causal model (SCM) ontological framework. The admission database of Benue State Polytechnic Ugbokolo (Benpoly) is used as a case study. The KDD process is employed to mine and distill knowledge from the database, while the SCM ontology is designed to identify and validate the important features of the admission process. The SCM validation is performed using the conditional independence test (CIT) criteria, and an algorithm is developed to implement the validation process. The identified features are then used for machine learning (ML) modeling and prediction of admission status. The results demonstrate the adequacy of the SCM ontological framework in representing the admission process and the high predictive accuracies achieved by the ML models, with k-nearest neighbors (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM) achieving 92% accuracy. The study concludes that the proposed ontology-driven approach contributes to the advancement of educational data mining and provides a foundation for future research in this domain.

Keywords: admission databases, educational data mining, machine learning, ontology-driven knowledge discovery, polytechnic education, structural causal model

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Authors: Abdulkarim Yusuf

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Motivation: The Nigerian economy has seen significant macroeconomic instability, fuelled mostly by an overreliance on fluctuating oil revenues. The rising disparity between tax receipts and government spending in Nigeria necessitates government borrowing to fund the anticipated pace of economic growth. Rising public debt and fiscal sustainability are limiting the government's ability to invest in key infrastructure that promotes private investment and growth in Nigeria. Objective: This paper fills an empirical research vacuum by examining the impact of public debt on fiscal sustainability in Nigeria, given the significance of fiscal stability in decreasing poverty and the constraints that an unsustainable debt burden imposes on it. Data and method: Annual time series data covering the period 1980 to 2022 exposed to conventional and structural breaks stationarity tests and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag estimation approach were adopted for this study. Results: The results reveal that domestic debt stock, debt service payment, foreign reserve stock, exchange rate, and private investment all had a major adverse effect on fiscal stability in the long and short run, corroborating the debt overhang and crowding-out hypothesis. External debt stock, prime lending rate, and degree of trade openness, which boosted fiscal stability in the long run, had a major detrimental effect on fiscal stability in the short run, whereas foreign direct investment inflows had an important beneficial impact on fiscal stability in both the long and short run. Implications: The results indicate that fiscal measures that inspire domestic resource mobilization, sustainable debt management techniques, and dependence on external debt to boost deficit financing will improve fiscal stability and drive growth.

Keywords: ARDL co-integration, debt overhang, debt servicing, fiscal stability, public debt

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Authors: Saikiran Subbagari, Avinash Malladhi

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Anti Money Laundering (AML) regulations are designed to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing activities worldwide. Financial institutions around the world are legally obligated to identify, assess and mitigate the risks associated with money laundering and report any suspicious transactions to governing authorities. With increasing volumes of data to analyze, financial institutions seek to automate their AML processes. In the rise of financial crimes, optical character recognition (OCR), in combination with machine learning (ML) algorithms, serves as a crucial tool for automating AML processes by extracting the data from documents and identifying suspicious transactions. In this paper, we examine the utilization of OCR for AML and delve into various OCR techniques employed in AML processes. These techniques encompass template-based, feature-based, neural network-based, natural language processing (NLP), hidden markov models (HMMs), conditional random fields (CRFs), binarizations, pattern matching and stroke width transform (SWT). We evaluate each technique, discussing their strengths and constraints. Also, we emphasize on how OCR can improve the accuracy of customer identity verification by comparing the extracted text with the office of foreign assets control (OFAC) watchlist. We will also discuss how OCR helps to overcome language barriers in AML compliance. We also address the implementation challenges that OCR-based AML systems may face and offer recommendations for financial institutions based on the data from previous research studies, which illustrate the effectiveness of OCR-based AML.

Keywords: anti-money laundering, compliance, financial crimes, fraud detection, machine learning, optical character recognition

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Authors: John Adebayo Oloyhede

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This paper examines effect of financial liberalization on the stability of the demand for money function and its implication for exchange rate behaviour of three African countries. As the demand for money function is regarded as one of the two main building blocks of most exchange rate determination models, the other being purchasing power parity, its stability is required for the monetary models of exchange rate determination to hold. To what extent has the liberalisation policy of these countries, for instance liberalised interest rate, affected the demand for money function and what has been the consequence on the validity and relevance of floating exchange rate models? The study adopts the Autoregressive Instrumental Package (AIV) of multiple regression technique and followed the Almon Polynomial procedure with zero-end constraint. Data for the period 1986 to 2011 were drawn from three developing countries of Africa, namely: Gambia, Ghana and Nigeria, which did not only start the liberalization and floating system almost at the same period but share similar and diverse economic and financial structures. Its findings show that the demand for money was a stable function of income and interest rate at home and abroad. Other factors such as exchange rate and foreign interest rate exerted some significant effect on domestic money demand. The short-run and long-run elasticity with respect to income, interest rates, expected inflation rate and exchange rate expectation are not greater than zero. This evidence conforms to some extent to the expected behaviour of the domestic money function and underscores its ability to serve as good building block or assumption of the monetary model of exchange rate determination. This will, therefore, assist appropriate monetary authorities in the design and implementation of further financial liberalization policy packages in developing countries.

Keywords: financial liberalisation, exchange rates, demand for money, developing economies

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Authors: Siti Noor Baiti Binti Mustafa

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Energy management studies regarding energy efficiency investments in Malaysia has yet to address the lack of empirical research that examines pro- sustainability behavior of managers in the industrial sector and how it influences energy efficiency investment decision-making. This study adopts the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to examine the relationship between personal attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control (PBC), the intention of energy efficiency investments, and how perceptions of Non-Energy Benefits (NEB) influence these intentions among managers in the industrial sector in Malaysia. Managers from various sub-sectors in the industrial sector were selected from a sample of companies that are participants of the Government-led program named the Energy Audit Conditional Grant (EACG) that aimed to promote energy efficiency. Data collection was conducted through an online semi-structured, open-ended questionnaire and then later interviewed. The results of this explorative sequential qualitative study showed that perceived behavioral control was a significant predictor of energy efficiency investment intentions as compared to factors such as attitude and subjective norms. The level of awareness and perceptions towards NEB further played a significant factor in influencing energy efficiency investment decision-making as well. Various measures and policy recommendations are provided together with insights on factors that influence decision-makers intention to invest in energy efficiency, whilst new knowledge on NEB perceptions will be useful to enhance the attractiveness of energy-efficient investments.

Keywords: energy efficiency investments, non-energy benefits, theory of planned behavior, personal attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, Malaysia industrial sector

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Authors: Kayode Ilesanmi Ebenezer Bowale, Dominic Azuh, Busayo Aderounmu, Alfred Ilesanmi

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There has been a debate among scholars and policymakers about the effects of oil exploration and production on industrial development. In Nigeria, there were many reforms resulting in an increase in crude oil production in the recent past. There is a controversy on the importance of oil production in the development of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria. Some scholars claim that oil has been a blessing to the development of the manufacturing sector, while others regard it as a curse. The objective of the study is to determine if empirical analysis supports the presence of Dutch Disease and de-industrialisation in the Nigerian manufacturing sector between 2019- 2022. The study employed data that were sourced from World Development Indicators, Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, and the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin on manufactured exports, manufacturing employment, agricultural employment, and service employment in line with the theory of Dutch Disease using the unit root test to establish their level of stationarity, Engel and Granger cointegration test to check their long-run relationship. Autoregressive. Distributed Lagged bound test was also used. The Vector Error Correction Model will be carried out to determine the speed of adjustment of the manufacturing export and resource movement effect. The results showed that the Nigerian manufacturing industry suffered from both direct and indirect de-industrialisation over the period. The findings also revealed that there was resource movement as labour moved away from the manufacturing sector to both the oil sector and the services sector. The study concluded that there was the presence of Dutch Disease in the manufacturing industry, and the problem of de-industrialisation led to the crowding out of manufacturing output. The study recommends that efforts should be made to diversify the Nigerian economy. Furthermore, a conducive business environment should be provided to encourage more involvement of the private sector in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors of the economy.

Keywords: Dutch disease, resource movement, manufacturing sector performance, Nigeria

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Authors: Saifalarab A. Mohmmed, Morgana E. Vianna, Jonathan C. Knowles

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The issue of apical periodontitis has received considerable critical attention. Bacteria is integrated into communities, attached to surfaces and consequently form biofilm. The biofilm structure provides bacteria with a series protection skills against, antimicrobial agents and enhances pathogenicity (e.g. apical periodontitis). Sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl) has become the irrigant of choice for elimination of bacteria from the root canal system based on its antimicrobial findings. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of different agitation techniques on the efficacy of 2.5% NaOCl to eliminate the biofilm from the surface of the lateral canal using the residual biofilm, and removal rate of biofilm as outcome measures. The effect of canal complexity (lateral canal) on the efficacy of the irrigation procedure was also assessed. Forty root canal models (n = 10 per group) were manufactured using 3D printing and resin materials. Each model consisted of two halves of an 18 mm length root canal with apical size 30 and taper 0.06, and a lateral canal of 3 mm length, 0.3 mm diameter located at 3 mm from the apical terminus. E. faecalis biofilms were grown on the apical 3 mm and lateral canal of the models for 10 days in Brain Heart Infusion broth. Biofilms were stained using crystal violet for visualisation. The model halves were reassembled, attached to an apparatus and tested under a fluorescence microscope. Syringe and needle irrigation protocol was performed using 9 mL of 2.5% NaOCl irrigant for 60 seconds. The irrigant was either left stagnant in the canal or activated for 30 seconds using manual (gutta-percha), sonic and ultrasonic methods. Images were then captured every second using an external camera. The percentages of residual biofilm were measured using image analysis software. The data were analysed using generalised linear mixed models. The greatest removal was associated with the ultrasonic group (66.76%) followed by sonic (45.49%), manual (43.97%), and passive irrigation group (control) (38.67%) respectively. No marked reduction in the efficiency of NaOCl to remove biofilm was found between the simple and complex anatomy models (p = 0.098). The removal efficacy of NaOCl on the biofilm was limited to the 1 mm level of the lateral canal. The agitation of NaOCl results in better penetration of the irrigant into the lateral canals. Ultrasonic agitation of NaOCl improved the removal of bacterial biofilm.

Keywords: 3D printing, biofilm, root canal irrigation, sodium hypochlorite

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Authors: Humera Malik

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Gender inequality, as a societal issue, is prevalent in all spheres of life in Pakistan. It is world-wide understood that gender equality is a basic right of every human being as well as the source of development and prosperity for the whole country. In fact, many countries endeavor to ensure equal opportunities for men and women which will, in turn, help to attain sustainable growth in every field. Most of the women in Pakistan live their life under the societal pressure which is exerted by centuries old traditions. This archaic setup restricts women to stay at home because their survival is conditional to their total subjugation to the male member of the family. This patriarchal structure confers men the right to deal women as their property. It is not wrong to say that women endure severe discrimination in their whole life. No doubt, women are confronted with multifaceted discrimination in the field of education, health, politics, social status, etc. The main theme of this research is to ascertain the present condition of gender inequality in the field of economy in Pakistan. Pakistan’s poor ranking in Global Gender Gap Index, 2016 clearly depicts that women are deprived of fundamental rights as well as equal opportunities of development. This very state of affairs depicts the real picture of government’s commitment to women empowerment and gender equality. The nature of this research is descriptive which helps to determine the status of women in Pakistan on the basis of labour force participation, wage gap, estimated incomes, and ratio of high ranking positions secured by women. It is an endeavor to understand the reasons of economic inequality by following qualitative method of research. Moreover, few recommendations will be suggested to get rid of this issue.

Keywords: dismal, discrimination, feudal, patriarchal, wage gap

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Authors: Kanogkan Leerojanaprapa

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Textile and garment industry is used to a major exporting industry of Thailand. According to lacking of the nation's price-competitiveness by stopping the EU's GSP (Generalised Scheme of Preferences) and ‘Nationwide Minimum Wage Policy’ that Thailand’s employers must pay all employees at least 300 baht (about $10) a day, the supply chains of the Thai textile and garment industry is affected and need to be reformed. Therefore, either Thai textile or garment industry will be existed or not would be concerned. This is also challenged for the government to decide which industries should be promoted the future industries of Thailand. Recently Thai government launch The Cluster-based Special Economic Development Zones Policy for promoting business cluster (effect on September 16, 2015). They define a cluster as the concentration of interconnected businesses and related institutions that operate within the same geographic areas and textiles and garment is one of target industrial clusters and 9 provinces are targeted (Bangkok, Kanchanaburi, Nakhon Pathom, Ratchaburi, Samut Sakhon, Chonburi, Chachoengsao, Prachinburi, and Sa Kaeo). The cluster zone are defined to link west-east corridor connected to manufacturing source in Cambodia and Mynmar to Bangkok where are promoted to be design, sourcing, and trading hub. The Thai government will provide tax and non-tax incentives for targeted industries within the clusters and expects these businesses are scattered to where they can get the most benefit which will identify future industrial cluster. This research will show the difference between the current cluster and future cluster following the target provinces of the textile and garment. The current cluster is analysed from secondary data. The four characteristics of the numbers of plants in Spinning, weaving and finishing of textiles, Manufacture of made-up textile articles, except apparel, Manufacture of knitted and crocheted fabrics, and Manufacture of other textiles, not elsewhere classified in particular 77 provinces (in total) are clustered by K-means cluster analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis. In addition, the cluster can be confirmed and showed which variables contribute the most to defined cluster solution with ANOVA test. The results of analysis can identify 22 provinces (which the textile or garment plants are located) into 3 clusters. Plants in cluster 1 tend to be large numbers of plants which is only Bangkok, Next plants in cluster 2 tend to be moderate numbers of plants which are Samut Prakan, Samut Sakhon and Nakhon Pathom. Finally plants in cluster 3 tend to be little numbers of plants which are other 18 provinces. The same methodology can be implemented in other industries for future study.

Keywords: ANOVA, hierarchical cluster analysis, industrial clusters, K -means cluster analysis, textile and garment industry

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Authors: Rohtash

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Academically, the concept of Justice in the literature is vast, and theories are voluminous and definitions are numerous but it is very difficult to define. Through the ages, justice has been evolving and developing reasoning that how individuals and communities do the right thing that is just and fair to all in that society. Justice is a relative and dynamic concept, not absolute one. It is different in different societies based on their morality and ethics. The idea of justice cannot arise from a single morality but interaction of competing moralities and contending perspectives. Justice is the conditional and circumstantial term. Therefore, justice takes different meanings in different contexts. Justice is the application of the Laws. It is a values-based concept in order to protect the rights and liberties of the people. It is a socially created concept that has no physical reality. It exists in society on the basis of the spirit of sharing by the communities and members of society. The conception of justice in society or among communities and individuals is based on their social coordination. It can be effective only when people’s judgments are based on collective reasoning. Their behavior is shaped by social values, norms and laws. People must accept, share and respect the set of principles for delivering justice. Thus justice can be a reasonable solution to conflicts and to coordinate behavior in society. The subject matter of distributive justice is the Public Good and societal resources that should be evenly distributed among the different sections of society on the principles developed and established by the State through legislation, public policy and Executive orders. The Socioeconomic transformation of the society is adopted by the constitution within the limit of its morality and gives a new dimension to transformative justice. Therefore, both Procedural and Transformative justice is part of Distributive justice. Distributive justice is purely an economic phenomenon. It concerns the allocation of resources among the communities and individuals. The subject matter of distributive justice is the distribution of rights, responsibilities, burdens and benefits in society on the basis of the capacity and capability of individuals.

Keywords: distributive justice, constitutionalism, institutionalism, constitutional morality

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Authors: Takuro Kida, Yuichi Kida

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We show a base of the new trend of algorithm mathematically that treats a historical reason of continuous discrimination in the world as well as its solution by introducing new concepts of parallel world that includes an invisible set of errors as its companion. With respect to a matrix operator-filter bank that the matrix operator-analysis-filter bank H and the matrix operator-sampling-filter bank S are given, firstly, we introduce the detailed algorithm to derive the optimum matrix operator-synthesis-filter bank Z that minimizes all the worst-case measures of the matrix operator-error-signals E(ω) = F(ω) − Y(ω) between the matrix operator-input-signals F(ω) and the matrix operator-output signals Y(ω) of the matrix operator-filter bank at the same time. Further, feedback is introduced to the above approximation theory and it is indicated that introducing conversations with feedback does not superior automatically to the accumulation of existing knowledge of signal prediction. Secondly, the concept of category in the field of mathematics is applied to the above optimum signal approximation and is indicated that the category-based approximation theory is applied to the set-theoretic consideration of the recognition of humans. Based on this discussion, it is shown naturally why the narrow perception that tends to create isolation shows an apparent advantage in the short term and, often, why such narrow thinking becomes intimate with discriminatory action in a human group. Throughout these considerations, it is presented that, in order to abolish easy and intimate discriminatory behavior, it is important to create a parallel world of conception where we share the set of invisible error signals, including the words and the consciousness of both worlds.

Keywords: signal prediction, pseudo inverse matrix, artificial intelligence, conditional optimization

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Authors: Andrew Laming, John Hattie, Mark Wilson

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Nine Queensland Independent high schools provided deidentified student-matched ATAR and NAPLAN data for all 1217 ATAR graduates since 2020 who also sat NAPLAN at the school. Graduating cohorts from the nine schools contained a mean 100 ATAR graduates with previous NAPLAN data from their school. Excluded were vocational students (mean=27) and any ATAR graduates without NAPLAN data (mean=20). Based on Index of Community Socio-Educational Access (ICSEA) prediction, all schools had larger that predicted proportions of their students graduating with ATARs. There were an additional 173 students not releasing their ATARs to their school (14%), requiring this data to be inferred by schools. Gain was established by first converting each student’s strongest NAPLAN domain to a statewide percentile, then subtracting this result from final ATAR. The resulting ‘percentile shift’ was corrected for plausible ATAR participation at each NAPLAN level. Strongest NAPLAN domain had the highest correlation with ATAR (R2=0.58). RESULTS School mean NAPLAN scores fitted ICSEA closely (R2=0.97). Schools achieved a mean cohort gain of two ATAR rankings, but only 66% of students gained. This ranged from 46% of top-NAPLAN decile students gaining, rising to 75% achieving gains outside the top decile. The 54% of top-decile students whose ATAR fell short of prediction lost a mean 4.0 percentiles (or 6.2 percentiles prior to correction for regression to the mean). 71% of students in smaller schools gained, compared to 63% in larger schools. NAPLAN variability in each of the 13 ICSEA1100 cohorts was 17%, with both intra-school and inter-school variation of these values extremely low (0.3% to 1.8%). Mean ATAR change between years in each school was just 1.1 ATAR ranks. This suggests consecutive school cohorts and ICSEA-similar schools share very similar distributions and outcomes over time. Quantile analysis of the NAPLAN/ATAR revealed heteroscedasticity, but splines offered little additional benefit over simple linear regression. The NAPLAN/ATAR R2 was 0.33. DISCUSSION Standardised data like NAPLAN and ATAR offer educators a simple no-cost progression metric to analyse performance in conjunction with their internal test results. Change is expressed in percentiles, or ATAR shift per student, which is layperson intuitive. Findings may also reduce ATAR/vocational stream mismatch, reveal proportions of cohorts meeting or falling short of expectation and demonstrate by how much. Finally, ‘crashed’ ATARs well below expectation are revealed, which schools can reasonably work to minimise. The percentile shift method is neither value-add nor a growth percentile. In the absence of exit NAPLAN testing, this metric is unable to discriminate academic gain from legitimate ATAR-maximizing strategies. But by controlling for ICSEA, ATAR proportion variation and student mobility, it uncovers progression to ATAR metrics which are not currently publicly available. However achieved, ATAR maximisation is a sought-after private good. So long as standardised nationwide data is available, this analysis offers useful analytics for educators and reasonable predictivity when counselling subsequent cohorts about their ATAR prospects.  

Keywords: NAPLAN, ATAR, analytics, measurement, gain, performance, data, percentile, value-added, high school, numeracy, reading comprehension, variability, regression to the mean

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Authors: Li Yin, Xiaoqin Wang

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Background and purpose: Cancer diagnosis is part of a complex stochastic process, in which patients' personal and social characteristics influence the choice of diagnosing methods, diagnosing methods, in turn, influence the initial assessment of cancer stage, the initial assessment, in turn, influences the choice of treating methods, and treating methods in turn influence cancer outcomes such as cancer survival. To evaluate diagnosing methods, one needs to estimate and test the causal effect of a regime of cancer diagnosis and treatments. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to estimate and test these causal effects via point effects. The purpose of the work is to estimate and test causal effects under various regimes of cancer diagnosis and treatments via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The cancer stage has influences from earlier diagnosis as well as on subsequent treatments. As a consequence, it is highly difficult to estimate and test the causal effects via standard parameters, that is, the conditional survival given all stationary covariates, diagnosing methods, cancer stage and prognosis factors, treating methods. Instead of standard parameters, we use the point effects of cancer diagnosis and treatments to estimate and test causal effects under various regimes of cancer diagnosis and treatments. We are able to use familiar methods in the framework of single-point causal inference to accomplish the task. Achievements: we have applied this method to stomach cancer survival from a clinical study in Sweden. We have studied causal effects under various regimes, including the optimal regime of diagnosis and treatments and the effect moderation of the causal effect by age and gender.

Keywords: cancer diagnosis, causal effect, point effect, G-formula, sequential causal effect

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