Search results for: analyst forecast dispersion

Authors: Skirmante Mozuriunaite

Abstract:

Contemporary metropolitan areas and large cities are dynamic, rapidly growing and continuously changing. Thus, urban transformations and mutations are not a new phenomenon, but rather a continuous process. Basic factors of urban transformation are related to development of technologies, globalisation, lifestyle, etc., which, in combination with local factors, have generated an extremely great variety of urban development conditions. This article discusses the main urbanisation processes in Lithuania during last 50 year period and social factors affecting urban functional mutations.

Keywords: dispersion, functional mutations, urbanization, urban mutations, social factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 526

Authors: Diqin Qi, Jiaming Li, Siman Li

Abstract:

Based on the use of the three-point smoothing method for selectively processing original data columns, this paper establishes a group of grey GM(1,1) models to predict the concentration ranges of four major air pollutants in Shanghai from 2023 to 2024. The results indicate that PM₁₀, SO₂, and NO₂ maintain the national Grade I standards, while the concentration of PM₂.₅ has decreased but still remains within the national Grade II standards. Combining the forecast results, recommendations are provided for the Shanghai municipal government's efforts in air pollution prevention and control.

Keywords: atmospheric pollutant prediction, Grey GM(1, 1), model group, three-point smoothing method

Procedia PDF Downloads 35

Authors: Leila Motamed-Jahromi, Mohsen Hatami, Alireza Keshavarz

Abstract:

This research aims at obtaining the equations of pulse propagation in nonlinear plasmonic waveguides created with As₂S₃ chalcogenide materials. Via utilizing Helmholtz equation and first-order perturbation theory, two components of electric field are determined within frequency domain. Afterwards, the equations are formulated in time domain. The obtained equations include two coupled differential equations that considers nonlinear dispersion.

Keywords: nonlinear optics, plasmonic waveguide, chalcogenide, propagation equation

Procedia PDF Downloads 417

Authors: Cristian Chacha, David Asiain, Jesús Ponce de León, José Ramón Beltrán

Abstract:

This work explores and characterizes the behavior of the AFE AD5941 in impedance measurement using an embedded algorithm with a constant current AC source. The main aim of this research is to improve the exact measurement of impedance values for their application in EDA-focused wearable devices. Through comprehensive study and characterization, it has been observed that employing a measurement sequence with a constant current source produces results with increased dispersion but higher accuracy. As a result, this approach leads to a more accurate system for impedance measurement.

Keywords: EDA, constant current AC source, wearable, precision, accuracy, impedance

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Meimei Zheng

Abstract:

Product personalization could not only bring new profits to companies but also provide the direction of long-term development for companies. However, the characteristics of personalized product cause some new problems. This paper investigates how companies make decisions on the supply of personalized products when facing different customer attitudes to personalized product and service, constraints due to limited capacity and updates of personalized demand information. This study will provide optimal decisions for companies to develop personalized markets, resulting in promoting business transformation and improving business competitiveness.

Keywords: demand forecast updating, limited capacity, personalized products, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Valeria Bondarenko

Abstract:

We proposed algorithms for: estimation of parameters fBm (volatility and Hurst exponent) and for the approximation of random time series by functional of fBm. We proved the consistency of the estimators, which constitute the above algorithms, and proved the optimal forecast of approximated time series. The adequacy of estimation algorithms, approximation, and forecasting is proved by numerical experiment. During the process of creating software, the system has been created, which is displayed by the hierarchical structure. The comparative analysis of proposed algorithms with the other methods gives evidence of the advantage of approximation method. The results can be used to develop methods for the analysis and modeling of time series describing the economic, physical, biological and other processes.

Keywords: mathematical model, random process, Wiener process, fractional Brownian motion

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Lei Ren, Michael Hartnett, Stephen Nash

Abstract:

The abundant measured surface current from HF radar system in coastal area is assimilated into model to improve the modeling forecasting ability. A simple sequential data assimilation scheme, Direct Insertion (DI), is applied to update model forecast states. The influence of Direct Insertion data assimilation over time is analyzed at one reference point. Vector maps of surface current from models are compared with HF radar measurements. Root-Mean-Squared-Error (RMSE) between modeling results and HF radar measurements is calculated during the last four days with no data assimilation.

Keywords: data assimilation, CODAR, HF radar, surface current, direct insertion

Procedia PDF Downloads 574

Authors: Alexander Gretchenko, Liudmila Goncharenko, Sergey Sybachin

Abstract:

This article summarizes the history of the discovery of N.D. Kondratiev of large cycles of economic conditions, as well as the creation and justification of the theory of innovation-cyclical economic development of Kondratiev-Schumpeter. An analysis of it in modern conditions is providing. The main conclusion in this article is that in general terms today it can be argued that the Kondratiev-Schumpeter theory is sufficiently substantiated. Further, the possibility of making a forecast of the development of the economic situation in the direction of applying this theory in practice, which demonstrate its effectiveness, is considered.

Keywords: Kondratiev's big cycles of economic conjuncture, Schumpeter's theory of innovative economic development, long-term cyclical forecasting, dating of Kondratiev cycles

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Manuel Alejandro Taborda Ceballos, Martin Sommerfeld

Abstract:

Transport phenomena and dispersion of non-spherical particle in turbulent flows are found everywhere in industrial application and processes. Powder handling, pollution control, pneumatic transport, particle separation are just some examples where the particle encountered are not only spherical. These types of multiphase flows are wall bounded and mostly highly turbulent. The particles found in these processes are rarely spherical but may have various shapes (e.g., fibers, and rods). Although research related to the behavior of regular non-spherical particles in turbulent flows has been carried out for many years, it is still necessary to refine models, especially near walls where the interaction fiber-wall changes completely its behavior. Imaging-based experimental studies on dispersed particle-laden flows have been applied for many decades for a detailed experimental analysis. These techniques have the advantages that they provide field information in two or three dimensions, but have a lower temporal resolution compared to point-wise techniques such as PDA (phase-Doppler anemometry) and derivations therefrom. The applied imaging techniques in dispersed two-phase flows are extensions from classical PIV (particle image velocimetry) and PTV (particle tracking velocimetry) and the main emphasis was simultaneous measurement of the velocity fields of both phases. In a similar way, such data should also provide adequate information for validating the proposed models. Available experimental studies on the behavior of non-spherical particles are uncommon and mostly based on planar light-sheet measurements. Especially for elongated non-spherical particles, however, three-dimensional measurements are needed to fully describe their motion and to provide sufficient information for validation of numerical computations. For further providing detailed experimental results allowing a validation of numerical calculations of non-spherical particle dispersion in turbulent flows, a water channel test facility was built around a horizontal closed water channel. Into this horizontal main flow, a small cross-jet laden with fiber-like particles was injected, which was also solely driven by gravity. The dispersion of the fibers was measured by applying imaging techniques based on a LED array for backlighting and high-speed cameras. For obtaining the fluid velocity fields, almost neutrally buoyant tracer was used. The discrimination between tracer and fibers was done based on image size which was also the basis to determine fiber orientation with respect to the inertial coordinate system. The synchronous measurement of fluid velocity and fiber properties also allow the collection of statistics of fiber orientation, velocity fields of tracer and fibers, the angular velocity of the fibers and the orientation between fiber and instantaneous relative velocity. Consequently, an experimental study the behavior of elongated non-spherical particles in wall bounded turbulent flows was achieved. The development of a comprehensive analysis was succeeded, especially near the wall region, where exists hydrodynamic wall interaction effects (e.g., collision or lubrication) and abrupt changes of particle rotational velocity. This allowed us to predict numerically afterwards the behavior of non-spherical particles within the frame of the Euler/Lagrange approach, where the particles are therein treated as “point-particles”.

Keywords: crossflow, non-spherical particles, particle tracking velocimetry, PIV

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: H. H. Goh, K. C. Goh, W. N. Z. S. Wan Sukri, Q. S. Chua, S. W. Lee, B. C. Kok

Abstract:

Endowed of renewable energy sources (RES) are the advantages of ASEAN, but they are using a low amount of RES only to generate electricity because their primary energy sources are fossil and coal. The cost of purchasing fossil and coal is cheaper now, but it might be expensive soon, as it will be depleted sooner and after. ASEAN showed that the RES are convenient to be implemented. Some country in ASEAN has huge renewable energy sources potential and use. The primary aim of this project is to assist ASEAN countries in preparing the renewable energy and to guide the policies for RES in the more upright direction. The Green-Y model will help ASEAN government to study and forecast the economic concept, including feed-in tariff.

Keywords: ASEAN RES, Renewable Energy, RES Policies, RES Potential, RES Utilization

Procedia PDF Downloads 501

Authors: Adil Rasheed, Mandar Tabib

Abstract:

The paper describes the ability of a high-resolution Computational Fluid Dynamics model to predict terrain-induced turbulence and wind shear close to the ground. Various sensitivity studies to choose the optimal simulation setup for modeling the flow characteristics in a complex terrain are presented. The capabilities of the model are demonstrated by applying it to the Sandnessjøen Airport, Stokka in Norway, an airport that is located in a mountainous area. The model is able to forecast turbulence in real time and trigger an alert when atmospheric conditions might result in high wind shear and turbulence.

Keywords: aviation safety, terrain-induced turbulence, atmospheric flow, alert system

Procedia PDF Downloads 416

Authors: D. Ravinder, K. S. Nagaraju

Abstract:

Ni–Al ferrite with composition of NiAlxFe2-xO4 (x=0.2, 0.4 0.6, and 0.8, ) were prepared by citrate gel method. The dielectric properties for all the samples were investigated at room temperature as a function of frequency. The dielectric constant shows dispersion in the lower frequency region and remains almost constant at higher frequencies. The frequency dependence of dielectric loss tangent (tanδ) is found to be abnormal, giving a peak at certain frequency for mixed Ni-Al ferrites. A qualitative explanation is given for the composition and frequency dependence of the dielectric loss tangent.

Keywords: ferrites, citrate method, lattice parameter, dielectric constant

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: Daniil Karzanov

Abstract:

This paper studies the effect of quarterly earnings reports on the stock price. The profitability of the stock is modeled by geometric Brownian diffusion and the Constant Elasticity of Variance model. We fit several variations of stochastic differential equations to the pre-and after-report period using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Grid Search of parameters method. By examining the change in the model parameters after reports’ publication, the study reveals that the reports have enough evidence to be a structural breakpoint, meaning that all the forecast models exploited are not applicable for forecasting and should be refitted shortly.

Keywords: stock market, earnings reports, financial time series, structural breaks, stochastic differential equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Arezoo Hakimi, Afshin Farahbakhsh

Abstract:

Herein, we comparison synthesized Fe3O4 using, hydrothermal method, Mechanochemical processes and solvent thermal method. The Hydrothermal Technique has been the most popular one, gathering interest from scientists and technologists of different disciplines, particularly in the last fifteen years. In the hydrothermal method Fe3O4 microspheres, in which many nearly monodisperse spherical particles with diameters of about 400nm, in the mechanochemical method regular morphology indicates that the particles are well crystallized and in the solvent thermal method Fe3O4 nanoparticles have good properties of uniform size and good dispersion.

Keywords: Fe3O4 nanoparticles, hydrothermal method, mechanochemical processes, solvent thermal method

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: Syed Ahzam Tariq, Atharva Modi

Abstract:

This paper presents a probabilistic analysis of the safety of water tube boilers using fault tree analysis (FTA). A fault tree has been constructed by considering all possible areas where a malfunction could lead to a boiler accident. Boiler accidents are relatively rare, causing a scarcity of data. The fuzzy approach is employed to perform a quantitative analysis, wherein theories of fuzzy logic are employed in conjunction with expert elicitation to calculate failure probabilities. The Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) provides a scientific and contingent method to forecast and prevent accidents.

Keywords: fault tree analysis water tube boiler, fuzzy probability score, failure probability

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

Abstract:

This study is an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. We analyze the opportunities for using classical mathematical models (exponential and logistic tumor growth models, Gompertz and von Bertalanffy tumor growth models) to try to describe growth of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases of human breast cancer. The research aim is to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoMPaS and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoMPaS which reflects relations between the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoMPaS scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The foundation of the CoMPaS is the exponential tumor growth model, which is described by determinate nonlinear and linear equations. The CoMPaS corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for the primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS is validated on clinical data of 10-years and 15-years survival depending on the tumor stage and diameter of the primary tumor. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer growth models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. The CoMPaS model and predictive software: a) fit to clinical trials data; b) detect different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; c) make forecast of the period of the secondary distant metastases appearance; d) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; e) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoMPaS: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS enables, for the first time, to predict ‘whole natural history’ of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on the primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoMPaS describes correctly the primary tumor growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N0M0) stages without metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of the secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, metastases in lymph nodes, primary tumor, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Abhay Asthana, Gyati Shilakari Asthana

Abstract:

It’s the patient compliance and stability in combination with controlled drug delivery and biocompatibility that forms the core feature in present research and development of sustained biodegradable patch formulation intended for wound healing. The aim was to impart sustained degradation, sterile formulation, significant folding endurance, elasticity, biodegradability, bio-acceptability and strength. The optimized formulation was developed using component including polymers including Hydroxypropyl methyl cellulose, Ethylcellulose, and Gelatin, and Citric Acid PEG Citric acid (CPEGC) triblock dendrimers and active Curcumin. Polymeric mixture dissolved in geometric order in suitable medium through continuous stirring under ambient conditions. With continued stirring Curcumin was added with aid of DCM and Methanol in optimized ratio to get homogenous dispersion. The dispersion was sonicated with optimum frequency and for given time and later casted to form a patch form. All steps were carried out under under strict aseptic conditions. The formulations obtained in the acceptable working range were decided based on thickness, uniformity of drug content, smooth texture and flexibility and brittleness. The patch kept on stability using butter paper in sterile pack displayed folding endurance in range of 20 to 23 times without any evidence of crack in an optimized formulation at room temperature (RT) (24 ± 2°C). The patch displayed acceptable parameters after stability study conducted in refrigerated conditions (8±0.2°C) and at RT (24 ± 2°C) upto 90 days. Further, no significant changes were observed in critical parameters such as elasticity, biodegradability, drug release and drug content during stability study conducted at RT 24±2°C for 45 and 90 days. The drug content was in range 95 to 102%, moisture content didn’t exceeded 19.2% and patch passed the content uniformity test. Percentage cumulative drug release was found to be 80% in 12h and matched the biodegradation rate as drug release with correlation factor R2>0.9. The biodegradable patch based formulation developed shows promising results in terms of stability and release profiles.

Keywords: sustained biodegradation, wound healing, polymers, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Wei-Jen Hsu

Abstract:

Recently, the sale of electrical vehicles (EVs) has increased dramatically due to maturing technology development and decreasing cost. Governments of many countries have made regulations and policies in favor of EVs due to their long-term commitment to net zero carbon emissions. However, due to uncertain factors such as the future price of EVs, forecasting the future market share of EVs is a challenging subject for both the auto industry and local government. This study tries to forecast the market share of EVs using conjoint models and Monte Carlo simulation. The research is conducted in three phases. (1) A conjoint model is established to represent the customer preference structure on purchasing vehicles while five product attributes of both EV and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) are selected. A questionnaire survey is conducted to collect responses from Taiwanese consumers and estimate the part-worth utility functions of all respondents. The resulting part-worth utility functions can be used to estimate the market share, assuming each respondent will purchase the product with the highest total utility. For example, attribute values of an ICEV and a competing EV are given respectively, two total utilities of the two vehicles of a respondent are calculated and then knowing his/her choice. Once the choices of all respondents are known, an estimate of market share can be obtained. (2) Among the attributes, future price is the key attribute that dominates consumers’ choice. This study adopts the assumption of a learning curve to predict the future price of EVs. Based on the learning curve method and past price data of EVs, a regression model is established and the probability distribution function of the price of EVs in 2030 is obtained. (3) Since the future price is a random variable from the results of phase 2, a Monte Carlo simulation is then conducted to simulate the choices of all respondents by using their part-worth utility functions. For instance, using one thousand generated future prices of an EV together with other forecasted attribute values of the EV and an ICEV, one thousand market shares can be obtained with a Monte Carlo simulation. The resulting probability distribution of the market share of EVs provides more information than a fixed number forecast, reflecting the uncertain nature of the future development of EVs. The research results can help the auto industry and local government make more appropriate decisions and future action plans.

Keywords: conjoint model, electrical vehicle, learning curve, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Hasik Lee, Seung-Young Kho

Abstract:

Nowadays, automatic fare collection (AFC) system is widely used in many countries. However, smart card data from many of cities does not contain alighting information which is necessary to build OD matrices. Therefore, in order to utilize smart card data, destinations of passengers should be estimated. In this paper, kernel density estimation was used to forecast probabilities of alighting stations of bus passengers and applied to smart card data in Seoul, Korea which contains boarding and alighting information. This method was also validated with actual data. In some cases, stochastic method was more accurate than deterministic method. Therefore, it is sufficiently accurate to be used to build OD matrices.

Keywords: destination estimation, Kernel density estimation, smart card data, validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 352

Authors: Aswathi Thrivikraman, S. Advaith

Abstract:

The study is aimed at designing encoders for deciphering intricacies in time series data by redescribing the dynamics operating on a lower-dimensional manifold. A semi-supervised LSTM autoencoder is devised and investigated to see if the latent representation of the time series data can better forecast the data. End-to-end training of the LSTM autoencoder, together with another LSTM network that is connected to the latent space, forces the hidden states of the encoder to represent the most meaningful latent variables relevant for forecasting. Furthermore, the study compares the predictions with those of a traditional seq2seq model.

Keywords: LSTM, autoencoder, forecasting, seq2seq model

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Jian Huang, Weixin Qian, Haitao Zhang, Weiyong Ying

Abstract:

Cobalt-gadolinium catalyst for Fischer-Tropsch synthesis was prepared by impregnation method with commercial silica gel, and its texture properties were characterized by BET, XRD, and TPR. The catalytic performance of the catalyst was tested in a fixed bed reactor. The results showed that the addition of gadolinium to the cobalt catalyst might decrease the size of cobalt particles, and increased the dispersion of catalytic active cobalt phases. The carbon number distributions for the catalysts was calculated by ASF equation.

Keywords: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, cobalt-based catalysts, gadolinium, carbon number distributions

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

Abstract:

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Shahriar Ghammamy, Maryam Gholipoor

Abstract:

Metronidazole nano -powders with the average mean particle size around 90 nm were synthesized by high-energy milling using a planetary ball mill is provided. The Scattering factors, milling of time,the ball size and ball to powder ratio on the material properties powder by the Ray diffraction (XRD) study, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), IR. It has been observed that the density of nano-sized grinding balls as ball to powder ratio depends. Using the dispersion factor, the density Can be reduced below the initial particle size was achieved.

Keywords: metronidazole, ball-milling, nanoparticles, characterization, XRD diffraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: Claus N. Holm, Oliver F. Grooss, Robert A. Alphinas

Abstract:

This research strives to predict the remaining product life cycle of a song on radio after it has been played for one or two months. The best results were achieved using a k-d tree to calculate the most similar songs to the test songs and use a Random Forest model to forecast radio plays. An 82.78% and 83.44% accuracy is achieved for the two time periods, respectively. This explorative research leads to over 4500 test metrics to find the best combination of models and pre-processing techniques. Other algorithms tested are KNN, MLP and CNN. The features only consist of daily radio plays and use no musical features.

Keywords: hit song science, product life cycle, machine learning, radio

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Efi Koutantou

Abstract:

The foundation of successful therapy is the bond between the psychotherapist and the patient, Psychoanalysis would argue. The present study explores lived experiences of a psychotherapeutic relationship in different moments, initial and final with special reference to the transference love developed through the process. The fight between moments of ‘leaving a self’ behind and following ‘lines of flight’ in the process of creating a new subjectivity and ‘becoming-other’ will be explored. Moments between de-territorialisation – surpassing given constraints such as gender, family and religion, kinship bonds - freeing the space in favor of re-territorialisation – creation of oneself creation of oneself will also be analyzed. The generation of new possibilities of being, new ways of self-actualization for this patient will be discussed. The second part of this study will explore the extent to which this ‘transference love’ results for this specific patient to become ‘the discourse of the other’; it is a desideratum whether the patient finally becomes a subject of his/her own through his/her own self-exploration of new possibilities of existence or becomes alienated within the thought of the therapist. The way in which the patient uses or is (ab)used by the transference love in order to experience and undergo alienation from an ‘authority’ which may or may not sacrifice his/her own thought in favor of satisfying the therapist will be investigated. Finally, from an observer’s perspective and from the analysis of the results of this therapeutic relationship, the counter-transference will also be analyzed, in terms of an attempt of the analyst to relive and satisfy his/her own desires through the life of the analysand. The accession and fall of an idealized self will be analyzed, the turn of the transference love into ‘hate’ will conclude this case study through a lived experience in the therapeutic procedure; a relationship which can be called to be a mixture of a real relationship and remnants from a past object relationship.

Keywords: alienation, authority, counter-transference, hate, transference love

Procedia PDF Downloads 211

Authors: Thohidul Islam, Md. Hamidul Haque, Robin Kumar Biswas

Abstract:

Floods are one of the deadliest natural disasters which are very complex to model; however, machine learning is opening the door for more reliable and accurate flood prediction. In this research, a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) is developed to model the rainfall-water level relation, in a subtropical monsoon climatic region of the Bangladesh-India border. Our experiments show promising empirical results to forecast the water level for 1 day lead time. Our best performing MLP model achieves 98.7% coefficient of determination with lower model complexity which surpasses previously reported results on similar forecasting problems.

Keywords: flood forecasting, machine learning, multilayer perceptron network, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Szymon Kuczynski

Abstract:

Poland is characterized by the presence of numerous sedimentary basins and hydrocarbon provinces. Since 2006 exploration for hydrocarbons in Poland become gradually more focus on new unconventional targets, particularly on the shale gas potential of the Upper Ordovician and Lower Silurian in the Baltic-Podlasie-Lublin Basin. The first forecast prepared by US Energy Information Administration in 2011 indicated to 5.3 Tcm of natural gas. In 2012, Polish Geological Institute presented its own forecast which estimated maximum reserves on 1.92 Tcm. The difference in the estimates was caused by problems with calculations of the initial amount of adsorbed, as well as free, gas trapped in shale rocks (GIIP - Gas Initially in Place). This value is dependent from sorption capacity, gas saturation and mutual interactions between gas, water, and rock. Determination of the reservoir type in the initial exploration phase brings essential knowledge, which has an impact on decisions related to the production. The study of porosity impact for phase envelope shift eliminates errors and improves production profitability. Confinement phenomenon affects flow characteristics, fluid properties, and phase equilibrium. The thermodynamic behavior of confined fluids in porous media is subject to the basic considerations for industrial applications such as hydrocarbons production. In particular the knowledge of the phase equilibrium and the critical properties of the contained fluid is essential for the design and optimization of such process. In pores with a small diameter (nanopores), the effect of the wall interaction with the fluid particles becomes significant and occurs in shale formations. Nano pore size is similar to the fluid particles’ diameter and the area of particles which flow without interaction with pore wall is almost equal to the area where this phenomenon occurs. The molecular simulation studies have shown an effect of confinement to the pseudo critical properties. Therefore, the critical parameters pressure and temperature and the flow characteristics of hydrocarbons in terms of nano-scale are under the strong influence of fluid particles with the pore wall. It can be concluded that the impact of a single pore size is crucial when it comes to the nanoscale because there is possible the above-described effect. Nano- porosity makes it difficult to predict the flow of reservoir fluid. Research are conducted to explain the mechanisms of fluid flow in the nanopores and gas extraction from porous media by desorption.

Keywords: adsorption, capillary condensation, phase envelope, nanopores, unconventional natural gas

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: Anurag Sharma, Rahul Malhotra, Love Kumar, Harjit Pal Singh

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates OCDM-ROF based hybrid architecture where data/voice communication is enabled via a permutation of Optical Code Division Multiplexing (OCDM) and Radio-over-Fiber (RoF) techniques under various diverse conditions. OCDM-RoF hybrid network of 16 users with DPSK modulation format has been designed and performance of proposed network is analyzed for 100, 150, and 200 km fiber span length under the influence of linear and nonlinear effect. It has been reported that Polarization Mode Dispersion (PMD) has the least effect while other nonlinearity affects the performance of proposed network.

Keywords: OCDM, RoF, DPSK, PMD, eye diagram, BER, Q factor

Procedia PDF Downloads 638

Authors: Saahith M. S., Sivakami R.

Abstract:

In the realm of football analytics, particularly focusing on predicting football player performance, the ability to forecast player success accurately is of paramount importance for teams, managers, and fans. This study introduces an elaborate examination of predicting football player performance through the integration of data visualization methods and machine learning algorithms. The research entails the compilation of an extensive dataset comprising player attributes, conducting data preprocessing, feature selection, model selection, and model training to construct predictive models. The analysis within this study will involve delving into feature significance using methodologies like Select Best and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to pinpoint pertinent attributes for predicting player performance. Various machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest, Decision Tree, Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), will be explored to develop predictive models. The evaluation of each model's performance utilizing metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-squared will be executed to gauge their efficacy in predicting player performance. Furthermore, this investigation will encompass a top player analysis to recognize the top-performing players based on the anticipated overall performance scores. Nationality analysis will entail scrutinizing the player distribution based on nationality and investigating potential correlations between nationality and player performance. Positional analysis will concentrate on examining the player distribution across various positions and assessing the average performance of players in each position. Age analysis will evaluate the influence of age on player performance and identify any discernible trends or patterns associated with player age groups. The primary objective is to predict a football player's overall performance accurately based on their individual attributes, leveraging data-driven insights to enrich the comprehension of player success on the field. By amalgamating data visualization and machine learning methodologies, the aim is to furnish valuable tools for teams, managers, and fans to effectively analyze and forecast player performance. This research contributes to the progression of sports analytics by showcasing the potential of machine learning in predicting football player performance and offering actionable insights for diverse stakeholders in the football industry.

Keywords: football analytics, player performance prediction, data visualization, machine learning algorithms, random forest, decision tree, linear regression, support vector regression, artificial neural networks, model evaluation, top player analysis, nationality analysis, positional analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 38

Authors: I. B. Patel, K. A. Mistry, A. H. Prajapati

Abstract:

Biologically synthesized colloidal Pd nanoparticles were impregnated on porous aluminium. In this paper, the obtained Pd/Al2O3 catalysts were characterized by XRD, SEM, and TEM. The effects of deposited films on the performances of Pd/Al2O3 in adsorption, reduction, and catalytic reaction of CO2 were investigated. The results showed that the deposited films can remarkably improve the dispersion of active components and enhance the reactivity of Pd/Al2O3 catalyst. The catalytic performance of Pd/Al2O3 in term of surface reaction is also enhanced in terms of sensitivity (SF = 850) obtained through conventional CBD method.

Keywords: palladium nanoparticles, Pd/Al2O3, carbon dioxide, aluminium catalyst

Procedia PDF Downloads 445