Search results for: age-structured forest population

Authors: Cheng-Yu Tsai, Wen-Te Liu, Shin-Mei Hsu, Yin-Tzu Lin, Chi Wu

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Background: Obstructive Sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) is a common respiratory disorder during sleep. In addition, Body parameters were identified high predictive importance for OSAS severity. However, the effects of body parameters on OSAS severity remain unclear. Objective: In this study, the objective is to establish a prediction model for OSAS by using body parameters and investigate the effects of body parameters in OSAS. Methodologies: Severity was quantified as the polysomnography and the mean hourly number of greater than 3% dips in oxygen saturation during examination in a hospital in New Taipei City (Taiwan). Four levels of OSAS severity were classified by the apnea and hypopnea index (AHI) with American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM) guideline. Body parameters, including neck circumference, waist size, and body mass index (BMI) were obtained from questionnaire. Next, dividing the collecting subjects into two groups: training and testing groups. The training group was used to establish the random forest (RF) to predicting, and test group was used to evaluated the accuracy of classification. Results: There were 3330 subjects recruited in this study, whom had been done polysomnography for evaluating severity for OSAS. A RF of 1000 trees achieved correctly classified 79.94 % of test cases. When further evaluated on the test cohort, RF showed the waist and BMI as the high import factors in OSAS. Conclusion It is possible to provide patient with prescreening by body parameters which can pre-evaluate the health risks.

Keywords: apnea and hypopnea index, Body parameters, obstructive sleep apnea syndrome, Random Forest

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Authors: Juliana C. Alencar, Monica Ferreira do Amaral Porto

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The blue-green infrastructure in recent years has been pointed out as a possibility to increase the environmental quality of watersheds. The regulation ecosystem services brought by these areas are many, such as the improvement of the air quality of the air, water, soil, microclimate, besides helping to control the peak flows and to promote the quality of life of the population. This study proposes a blue-green infrastructure scenario for the Jaguaré watershed, located in the western zone of the São Paulo city in Brazil. Based on the proposed scenario, it was verified the impact of the adoption of the blue and green infrastructure in the control of the peak flow of the basin, the benefits for the avifauna that are also reflected in the flora and finally, the quantification of the regulation ecosystem services brought by the adoption of the scenario proposed. A survey of existing green areas and potential areas for expansion and connection of these areas to form a network in the watershed was carried out. Based on this proposed new network of green areas, the peak flow for the proposed scenario was calculated with the help of software, ABC6. Finally, a survey of the ecosystem services contemplated in the proposed scenario was made. It was possible to conclude that the blue and green infrastructure would provide several regulation ecosystem services for the watershed, such as the control of the peak flow, the connection frame between the forest fragments that promoted the environmental enrichment of these fragments, improvement of the microclimate and the provision of leisure areas for the population.

Keywords: green and blue infrastructure, sustainable drainage, urban waters, ecosystem services

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Authors: W. T. Hsu, H. L. Tsai

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The rapid aging of the population is a common trend in the world. However, the progress of modern medical technology has increased the average life expectancy. The global population structure has changed dramatically, and the elderly population has risen rapidly. In the face of rapid population growth, it must be noted issues of the aging population must face up to, which are the physiological, psychological, and social problems associated with aging. This study aims to investigate how insurance agents are actively dealing with an aging society, their own aging anxiety, and their exercise habits. Purposive sampling was the sampling method of this study, a total of 204 respondents were surveyed and 204 valid surveys were returned. The returned valid ratio was 100%. Statistical method included descriptive statistics, t-test, and one-way ANOVA. The results of the study found that the insurance agent’s age, seniority, exercise habits to aging anxiety are significantly different.

Keywords: insurance practitioners, aging anxiety, exercise habits, elderly

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Authors: Sarah Ryu

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Agricultural methods and ecological approaches employed by the pre-colonial Mayans may provide valuable insights into forest management and viable alternatives for resource sustainability in the face of major deforestation across Central and South America.Using a combination of observation data collected from the modern indigenous inhabitants near Mixco in Guatemala and historical data, this study was able to create a holistic picture of how the Maya maintained their ecosystems. Surveys and observations were conducted in the field, over a period of twelve weeks across two years. Geographic and archaeological data for this area was provided by Guatemalan organizations such as the Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala. Observations of current indigenous populations around Mixco showed that they adhered to traditional Mayan methods of agriculture, such as terrace construction and arboriculture. Rather than planting one cash crop as was done by the Spanish, indigenous peoples practice agroforestry, cultivating forests that would provide trees for construction material, wild plant foods, habitat for game, and medicinal herbs. The emphasis on biodiversity prevented deforestation and created a sustainable balance between human consumption and forest regrowth. Historical data provided by MayaSim showed that the Mayans successfully maintained their ecosystems from about 800BCE to 700CE. When the Mayans practiced natural resource conservation and cultivated a harmonious relationship with the forest around them, they were able to thrive and prosper alongside nature. Having lasted over a thousand years, the Mayan empire provides a valuable lesson in sustainability and human attitudes towards the environment.

Keywords: biodiversity, forestry, mayan, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Swathi Ganesan, Nalinda Somasiri, Rebecca Jeyavadhanam, Gayathri Karthick

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The COVID-19 crisis presents a substantial and critical hazard to worldwide health. Since the occurrence of the disease in late January 2020 in the UK, the number of infected people confirmed to acquire the illness has increased tremendously across the country, and the number of individuals affected is undoubtedly considerably high. The purpose of this research is to figure out a predictive machine learning archetypal that could forecast COVID-19 cases within the UK. This study concentrates on the statistical data collected from 31st January 2020 to 31st March 2021 in the United Kingdom. Information on total COVID cases registered, new cases encountered on a daily basis, total death registered, and patients’ death per day due to Coronavirus is collected from World Health Organisation (WHO). Data preprocessing is carried out to identify any missing values, outliers, or anomalies in the dataset. The data is split into 8:2 ratio for training and testing purposes to forecast future new COVID cases. Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, and linear regression algorithms are chosen to study the model performance in the prediction of new COVID-19 cases. From the evaluation metrics such as r-squared value and mean squared error, the statistical performance of the model in predicting the new COVID cases is evaluated. Random Forest outperformed the other two Machine Learning algorithms with a training accuracy of 99.47% and testing accuracy of 98.26% when n=30. The mean square error obtained for Random Forest is 4.05e11, which is lesser compared to the other predictive models used for this study. From the experimental analysis Random Forest algorithm can perform more effectively and efficiently in predicting the new COVID cases, which could help the health sector to take relevant control measures for the spread of the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19, machine learning, supervised learning, unsupervised learning, linear regression, support vector machine, random forest

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Authors: Rajat Kapoor

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India is a developing country and has experienced a rapid and tumultuous urban growth in the 20th century. The total urban population of the city increased ten-fold between 1901 and 2001. The share of urban population to the total population increased from less than 11 percent to over 28 percent in the same period. Except few examples, most of the Indian cities have grown in a haphazard manner; concentration of population followed by the planning exercises. In this era of global competitiveness and rapid urbanization there is no scope for malpractices in development strategies. It is expected that the Indian cities shall be planned comprehensively and holistically. The study reveals the land transformations the city of Faridabad is witnessing due to development which is largely boosted by the virtue of its location in the Delhi NCR.

Keywords: Delhi NCR, Faridabad, urban growth patterns, India

Procedia PDF Downloads 560

Authors: Abdelaziz Wided, Khiat Nawel, Khiat Inssaf

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The present study was initiated to: Determine burned forest-inhabiting fungi in Zouagha, Terri Beinène, Mila and study the antagonistic activity of Trichoderma sp against Fusarium sp, Penicillium sp, Rhizoctonia sp, Alternaria sp. 18 fungal strains were isolated from Soil samples taken from the forest Zouagha (Burned) in the region Mila representing 6 genera: Trichoderma sp et Fusarium sp, Penicillium sp, Rhizoctonia sp, Alternaria sp, Rhizopus sp. The tests of dual culture method on culture medium (PDA) against Trichoderma sp et Fusarium sp, Penicillium sp, Rhizoctonia sp, Alternaria sp revealed that: Trichoderma sp could reduce l mycelium grouth of Fusarium sp23.13%, Penicillium sp33.13%, Rhizoctoniasp33.75 %and Alternaria sp 38.31% in comparaison with the witness after 6 days at room temperature. The strains of Fusarium sp ,Penicillium sp, Rhizoctonia sp et Alternaria sp showed differences sensibility to the antagoniste.

Keywords: isolation, identification, molds, burned soil of zouagha, antagonism, trichoderma sp

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Authors: Rada Somkhuean, Sa-aat Niwitpong, Suparat Niwitpong

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This paper presents the generalized p-values for testing the difference between two future population means when the variances are unknown, in both cases for when the variances are equal and unequal. We also derive a closed form expression of the upper bound of the proposed generalized p-value.

Keywords: generalized p-value, two future population means, upper bound, variances

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Authors: Keshav Raj Acharya, Prabina Sharma

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Sugandhakokila (Cinnamomum glaucescens Nees. Dury) is a large evergreen native tree species; mostly confined naturally in mid-hills of Rapti Zone of Nepal. The species is identified as prioritized for agro-technology development as well as for research and development by a department of plant resources. This species is band for export outside the country without processing by the government of Nepal to encourage the value addition within the country. The present study was carried out in Chillikot village of Dang district to find out the economic contribution of C. glaucescens in the local economy and to document the major conservation threats for this species. Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) tools such as Household survey, key informants interviews and focus group discussions were carried out to collect the data. The present study reveals that about 1.7 million Nepalese rupees (NPR) have been contributed annually in the local economy of 29 households from the collection of C. glaucescens berries in the study area. The average annual income of each family was around NPR 67,165.38 (US$ 569.19) from the sale of the berries which contributes about 53% of the total household income. Six different value chain actors are involved in C. glaucescens business. Maximum profit margin was taken by collector followed by producer, exporter and processor. The profit margin was found minimum to regional and village traders. The total profit margin for producers was NPR 138.86/kg, and regional traders have gained NPR 17/kg. However, there is a possibility to increase the profit of producers by NPR 8.00 more for each kg of berries through the initiation of community forest user group and village cooperatives in the area. Open access resource, infestation by an insect to over matured trees and browsing by goats were identified as major conservation threats for this species. Handing over the national forest as a community forest, linking the producers with the processor through organized market channel and replacing the old tree through new plantation has been recommended for future.

Keywords: community forest, conservation threats, C. glaucescens, value chain analysis

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Authors: Abraha Hatsey, Nesibu Yahya, Abeje Eshete

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Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahido Church has a long tradition of conserving the Church vegetation and is an area treated as a refugee camp for many endangered indigenous tree species in Northern Ethiopia. Though around 36,000 churches exist in Ethiopia, only a few churches have been studied so far. Thus, this study assessed the land use land cover change of 3km buffer (1986-2018) and the woody species diversity and regeneration status of Tsimur St. Gebriel monastery in Tigray region, Northern Ethiopia. For vegetation study, systematic sampling was used with 100m spacing between plots and between transects. Plot size was 20m*20m for the main plot and 2 subplots (5m*5m each) for the regeneration study. Tree height, diameter at breast height(DBH) and crown area were measured in the main plot for all trees with DBH ≥ 5cm. In the subplots, all seedlings and saplings were counted with DBH < 5cm. The data was analyzed on excel and Pass biodiversity software for diversity and evenness analysis. The major land cover classes identified include bare land, farmland, forest, shrubland and wetland. The extents of forest and shrubland were declined considerably due to bare land and agricultural land expansions within the 3km buffer, indicating an increasing pressure on the church forest. Regarding the vegetation status, A total of 19 species belonging to 13 families were recorded in the monastery. The diversity (H’) and evenness recorded were 2.4 and 0.5, respectively. The tree density (DBH ≥ 5cm) was 336/ha and a crown cover of 65%. Olea europaea was the dominant (6.4m2/ha out of 10.5m2 total basal area) and a frequent species (100%) with good regeneration in the monastery. The rest of the species are less frequent and are mostly confined to water sources with good site conditions. Juniperus procera (overharvested) and the other indigenous species were with few trees left and with no/very poor regeneration status. The species having poor density, frequency and regeneration (Junperus procera, Nuxia congesta Fersen and Jasminium abyssinica) need prior conservation and enrichment planting. The indigenous species could also serve as a potential seed source for the reproduction and restoration of nearby degraded landscapes. The buffer study also demonstrated expansion of agriculture and bare land, which could be a threat to the forest of the isolated monastery. Hence, restoring the buffer zone is the only guarantee for the healthy existence of the church forest.

Keywords: church forests, regeneration, land use change, vegetation status

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Authors: Saba Riaz, Syed A. Hussain

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This paper is addressing the estimation method of the unknown population variance of the variable of interest. A new generalized class of estimators of the finite population variance has been suggested using the auxiliary information. To improve the precision of the proposed class, known population variance of the auxiliary variable has been used. Mathematical expressions for the biases and the asymptotic variances of the suggested class are derived under large sample approximation. Theoretical and numerical comparisons are made to investigate the performances of the proposed class of estimators. The empirical study reveals that the suggested class of estimators performs better than the usual estimator, classical ratio estimator, classical product estimator and classical linear regression estimator. It has also been found that the suggested class of estimators is also more efficient than some recently published estimators.

Keywords: study variable, auxiliary variable, finite population variance, bias, asymptotic variance, percent relative efficiency

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Authors: Jozef Mindas, Jaroslav Skvarenina, Jana Skvareninova

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Study of the effects of climate change on Norway Spruce (Picea abies) forests has mainly focused on the diversity of tree species diversity of tree species as a result of the ability of species to tolerate temperature and moisture changes as well as some effects of disturbance regime changes. The tree species’ diversity changes in spruce forests due to climate change have been analyzed via gap model. Forest gap model is a dynamic model for calculation basic characteristics of individual forest trees. Input ecological data for model calculations have been taken from the permanent research plots located in primeval forests in mountainous regions in Slovakia. The results of regional scenarios of the climatic change for the territory of Slovakia have been used, from which the values are according to the CGCM3.1 (global) model, KNMI and MPI (regional) models. Model results for conditions of the climate change scenarios suggest a shift of the upper forest limit to the region of the present subalpine zone, in supramontane zone. N. spruce representation will decrease at the expense of beech and precious broadleaved species (Acer sp., Sorbus sp., Fraxinus sp.). The most significant tree species diversity changes have been identified for the upper tree line and current belt of dwarf pine (Pinus mugo) occurrence. The results have been also discussed in relation to most important disturbances (wind storms, snow and ice storms) and phenological changes which consequences are little known. Special discussion is focused on biomass production changes in relation to carbon storage diversity in different carbon pools.

Keywords: biodiversity, climate change, Norway spruce forests, gap model

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Authors: Benaissa Fatima, Alkama Rezak, Annesi-Maesano Isabella

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To assess the health impact of the air pollution on the population of Béjaia, we carried out a descriptive epidemiologic inquiry near the medical establishments of three areas. From the registers of hospital admissions, we collected data on the hospital mortality and admissions relating to the various cardiorespiratory pathologies generated by this type of pollution. In parallel, data on the automobile fleet of Bejaia and other measurements were exploited to show that the concentrations of the pollutants are strongly correlated with the concentration the urban traffic. This study revealed that the whole of the population is touched, but the sensitivity to pollution can show variations according to the age, the sex and the place of residence. So the under population of the town of Bejaia marked the most raised death and morbidity rates, followed that of Kherrata. Weak rates are recorded for under rural population of Feraoun. This approach enables us to conclude that the population of Béjaia could not escape the urban pollution generated by her old automobile fleet. To install a monitoring and measuring site of the air pollution in this city could provide a beneficial tool to protect its inhabitants by them informing on quality from the air that they breathe and measurements to follow to minimize the impacts on their health and by alerting the authorities during the critical situations.

Keywords: air, urban pollution, health, impacts

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: Eric Mensah

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The effects of rapid urbanisation of tropical sub-Saharan developing cities on local and global climate are of great concern due to the negative impacts of Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects. The importance of urban parks, vegetative cover and forest reserves in these tropical cities have been undervalued with a rapid degradation and loss of these vegetative covers to urban developments which continue to cause an increase in daily mean temperatures and changes to local climatic conditions. Using Landsat data of the same months and period intervals, the spatial variations of land cover changes, temperature, and vegetation were examined to determine how vegetation improves local temperature and the effects of urbanisation on daily mean temperatures over the past 12 years. The remote sensing techniques of maximum likelihood supervised classification, land surface temperature retrieval technique, and normalised differential vegetation index techniques were used to analyse and create the land use land cover (LULC), land surface temperature (LST), and vegetation and non-vegetation cover maps respectively. Results from the study showed an increase in daily mean temperature by 0.80 °C as a result of rapid increase in urban area by 46.13 sq. km and loss of vegetative cover by 46.24 sq. km between 2005 and 2017. The LST map also shows the existence of UHI within the urban areas of Accra, the potential mitigating effects offered by the existence of forest and vegetative cover as demonstrated by the existence of cool islands around the Achimota ecological forest and University of Ghana botanical gardens areas.

Keywords: land surface temperature, climate, remote sensing, urbanisation

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Authors: Valmir Baloshi, Fran Gjoka, Nehat Çollaku, Elvin Toromani

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As a sediment production mechanism, soil erosion is the main environmental threat to the Bovilla watershed, including the decline of water quality of the Bovilla reservoir that provides drinking water to Tirana city (the capital of Albania). Therefore, an experiment with 25 erosion plots for soil erosion monitoring has been set up since June 2017. The aim was to determine the soil loss on plot and watershed scale in Bovilla watershed (Tirana region) for implementation of soil and water protection measures or payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs. The results of erosion monitoring for the period June 2017 - May 2018 showed that the highest values of surface runoff were noted in bare land of 38829.91 liters on slope of 74% and the lowest values in forest land of 12840.6 liters on slope of 64% while the highest values of soil loss were found in bare land of 595.15 t/ha on slope of 62% and lowest values in forest land of 18.99 t/ha on slope of 64%. These values are much higher than the average rate of soil loss in the European Union (2.46 ton/ha/year). In the same sloping class, the soil loss was reduced from orchard or bare land to the forest land, and in the same category of land use, the soil loss increased with increasing land slope. It is necessary to conduct chemical analyses of sediments to determine the amount of chemical elements leached out of the soil and end up in the reservoir of Bovilla. It is concluded that PES programs should be implemented for rehabilitation of sub-watersheds Ranxe, Vilez and Zall-Bastar of the Bovilla watershed with valuable conservation practices.

Keywords: ANOVA, Bovilla, land cover, slope, soil loss, watershed management

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Authors: Asharaf Abdul Salam

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Arabian Gulf countries have norms and rules different from others: having an exodus of male immigrant labor contract holders of age 20-60 years as a floating population. Such a demographic scenario camouflages population ageing. However, it is observed on examining vigilantly, not only in the native population but also in the general population. This research on population ageing in the Arabian Gulf examines ageing scenario and concerns through analyses of international databases (US Census Bureau and United Nations) and national level databases (Censuses and Surveys) apart from a review of published research. Transitions in demography and epidemiology lead to gains in life expectancy and thereby reductions in fertility, leading to ageing of the population in the region. Even after bringing adult immigrants, indices and age pyramids show an increasing ageing trend in the total population, demonstrating an ageing workforce. Besides, the exclusive native population analysis reveals a trend of expansive pyramids (pre-transitional stage) turning to constrictive (transition stage) and cylindrical (post-transition stage) shapes. Age-based indices such as the index of ageing, age dependency ratio, and median age confirm this trend. While the feminine nature of ageing is vivid, gains in life expectancy and causes of death in old age, indicating co-morbidity compression, are concerns to ageing. Preparations are in demand to cope with ageing from different dimensions, as explained in the United Nations Plans of Action. A strategy of strengthening informal care with supportive semi-formal and supplementary formal care networks would alleviate this crisis associated with population ageing.

Keywords: total versus native population, indices of ageing, age pyramids, feminine nature, comorbidity compression, strategic interventions

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Authors: Jiwan Kumar, Pooja, Sandeep Negi, Anjum Rouf, Amit Kumar, Naveen Lakra

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In modern times where, health issues are increasing day by day, breast cancer is also one of them, which is very crucial and really important to find in the early stages. Doctors can use this model in order to tell their patients whether a cancer is not harmful (benign) or harmful (malignant). We have used the knowledge of machine learning in order to produce the model. we have used algorithms like Logistic Regression, Random forest, support Vector Classifier, Bayesian Network and Radial Basis Function. We tried to use the data of crucial parts and show them the results in pictures in order to make it easier for doctors. By doing this, we're making ML better at finding breast cancer, which can lead to saving more lives and better health care.

Keywords: Bayesian network, radial basis function, ensemble learning, understandable, data making better, random forest, logistic regression, breast cancer

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Authors: Phayong Thepaksorn

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The objective of this study was to assess whether living in proximity to a roofing fiber cement factory in southern Thailand was associated with physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains measured in a self-reported health risk assessment (HRA) questionnaire. A cross-sectional study was conducted among community members divided into two groups: near population (living within 0-2 km of factory) and far population (living within 2-5 km of factory)(N=198). A greater proportion of those living far from the factory (65.34%) reported physical health problems than the near group (51.04 %)(p=0.032). This study has demonstrated that the near population group had higher proportion of participants with positive ratings on mental assessment (30.34%) and social health impacts (28.42%) than far population group (10.59% and 16.67 %, respectively) (p<0.001). The near population group (29.79%) had similar proportion of participants with positive ratings in spiritual health impacts compared with far population group (27.08%). Among females, but not males, this study demonstrated that a higher proportion of the near population had a positive summative score for the self-HRA, which included all four health domain, compared to the far population (p <0.001 for females; p=0.154 for males). In conclusion, this self-HRA of physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains reflected the risk perceptions of populations living in the vicinity of the roofing fiber cement factory. This type of tool can bring attention to population concerns and complaints in the factory’s surrounding community. Our findings may contribute to future development of self-HRA for HIA development procedure in Thailand.

Keywords: cement dust, health impact assessment, risk assessment, walk-though survey

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Authors: Bencherif Kada

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In the forest management practice, landscape and Mediterranean forest are never posed as linked objects. But sustainable forestry requires the valorization of the forest landscape, and this aim involves assessing the spatial distribution of biodiversity by mapping forest landscaped units and subunits and by monitoring the environmental trends. This contribution aims to highlight, through object-oriented classifications, the landscaped biodiversity of the National Park of Tlemcen (Algeria). The methodology used is based on ground data and on the basic processing units of object-oriented classification, that are segments, so-called image-objects, representing a relatively homogenous units on the ground. The classification of Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) imagery is performed on image objects and not on pixels. Advantages of object-oriented classification are to make full use of meaningful statistic and texture calculation, uncorrelated shape information (e.g., length-to-width ratio, direction, and area of an object, etc.), and topological features (neighbor, super-object, etc.), and the close relation between real-world objects and image objects. The results show that per object classification using the k-nearest neighbor’s method is more efficient than per pixel one. It permits to simplify of the content of the image while preserving spectrally and spatially homogeneous types of land covers such as Aleppo pine stands, cork oak groves, mixed groves of cork oak, holm oak, and zen oak, mixed groves of holm oak and thuja, water plan, dense and open shrub-lands of oaks, vegetable crops or orchard, herbaceous plants, and bare soils. Texture attributes seem to provide no useful information, while spatial attributes of shape and compactness seem to be performant for all the dominant features, such as pure stands of Aleppo pine and/or cork oak and bare soils. Landscaped sub-units are individualized while conserving the spatial information. Continuously dominant dense stands over a large area were formed into a single class, such as dense, fragmented stands with clear stands. Low shrublands formations and high wooded shrublands are well individualized but with some confusion with enclaves for the former. Overall, a visual evaluation of the classification shows that the classification reflects the actual spatial state of the study area at the landscape level.

Keywords: forest, oaks, remote sensing, diversity, shrublands

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Authors: Temur Chilachava

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In work the new nonlinear mathematical model describing assimilation of the people (population) with some less widespread language by two states with two various widespread languages, taking into account demographic factor is offered. In model three subjects are considered: the population and government institutions with the widespread first language, influencing by means of state and administrative resources on the third population with some less widespread language for the purpose of their assimilation; the population and government institutions with the widespread second language, influencing by means of state and administrative resources on the third population with some less widespread language for the purpose of their assimilation; the third population (probably small state formation, an autonomy), exposed to bilateral assimilation from two rather powerful states. Earlier by us it was shown that in case of zero demographic factor of all three subjects, the population with less widespread language completely assimilates the states with two various widespread languages, and the result of assimilation (redistribution of the assimilated population) is connected with initial quantities, technological and economic capabilities of the assimilating states. In considered model taking into account demographic factor natural decrease in the population of the assimilating states and a natural increase of the population which has undergone bilateral assimilation is supposed. At some ratios between coefficients of natural change of the population of the assimilating states, and also assimilation coefficients, for nonlinear system of three differential equations are received the two first integral. Cases of two powerful states assimilating the population of small state formation (autonomy), with different number of the population, both with identical and with various economic and technological capabilities are considered. It is shown that in the first case the problem is actually reduced to nonlinear system of two differential equations describing the classical model "predator - the victim", thus, naturally a role of the victim plays the population which has undergone assimilation, and a predator role the population of one of the assimilating states. The population of the second assimilating state in the first case changes in proportion (the coefficient of proportionality is equal to the relation of the population of assimilators in an initial time point) to the population of the first assimilator. In the second case the problem is actually reduced to nonlinear system of two differential equations describing type model "a predator – the victim", with the closed integrated curves on the phase plane. In both cases there is no full assimilation of the population to less widespread language. Intervals of change of number of the population of all three objects of model are found. The considered mathematical models which in some approach can model real situations, with the real assimilating countries and the state formations (an autonomy or formation with the unrecognized status), undergone to bilateral assimilation, show that for them the only possibility to avoid from assimilation is the natural demographic increase in population and hope for natural decrease in the population of the assimilating states.

Keywords: nonlinear mathematical model, bilateral assimilation, demographic factor, first integrals, result of assimilation, intervals of change of number of the population

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Authors: Rafael Castilho Carvalho, Edjair de Souza Mota

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As the largest contributor to the biogeochemical functioning of the Earth system, the Amazon Rainforest has the greatest biodiversity on the planet, harboring about 15% of all the world's flora. Recognition and preservation are the focus of research that seeks to mitigate drastic changes, especially anthropic ones, which irreversibly affect this biome. Functional and low-cost monitoring alternatives to reduce these impacts are a priority, such as those using technologies such as Low Power Wide Area Networks (LPWAN). Promising, reliable, secure and with low energy consumption, LPWAN can connect thousands of IoT devices, and in particular, LoRa is considered one of the most successful solutions to facilitate forest monitoring applications. Despite this, the forest environment, in particular the Amazon Rainforest, is a challenge for these technologies, requiring work to identify and validate the use of technology in a real environment. To investigate the feasibility of deploying LPWAN in remote water quality monitoring of rivers in the Amazon Region, a LoRa-based test bed consisting of a Lora transmitter and a LoRa receiver was set up, both parts were implemented with Arduino and the LoRa chip SX1276. The experiment was carried out at the Federal University of Amazonas, which contains one of the largest urban forests in Brazil. There are several springs inside the forest, and the main goal is to collect water quality parameters and transmit the data through the forest in real time to the gateway at the uni. In all, there are nine water quality parameters of interest. Even with a high collection frequency, the amount of information that must be sent to the gateway is small. However, for this application, the battery of the transmitter device is a concern since, in the real application, the device must run without maintenance for long periods of time. With these constraints in mind, parameters such as Spreading Factor (SF) and Coding Rate (CR), different antenna heights, and distances were tuned to better the connectivity quality, measured with RSSI and loss rate. A handheld spectrum analyzer RF Explorer was used to get the RSSI values. Distances exceeding 200 m have soon proven difficult to establish communication due to the dense foliage and high humidity. The optimal combinations of SF-CR values were 8-5 and 9-5, showing the lowest packet loss rates, 5% and 17%, respectively, with a signal strength of approximately -120 dBm, these being the best settings for this study so far. The rains and climate changes imposed limitations on the equipment, and more tests are already being conducted. Subsequently, the range of the LoRa configuration must be extended using a mesh topology, especially because at least three different collection points in the same water body are required.

Keywords: IoT, LPWAN, LoRa, coverage, loss rate, forest

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Authors: Jan M. Mari

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Safflower is a renowned drought tolerant oil seed crop. Previously its flowers were used for cooking and herbal medicines in China and it was cultivated by small growers for his personal needs of oil. A field study was conducted at experimental field, faculty of crop protection, Sindh Agricultural University Tandojam, during winter, 2012-13, to observe ecological effect on aphid population in safflower crop. Aphid population gradually increased with the growth of safflower. It developed with maximum aphid per leaf on 3rd week of February and it decreased in March as crop matured. A non-significant interaction was found with temperature of aphid, zigzag and hoverfly, respectively and a highly significant interaction with temperature was found with 7-spotted, lacewing, 9-spotted, and Brumus, respectively. The data revealed the overall mean population of zigzag was highest, followed by 9-spotted, 7-spotted, lace wing, hover fly and Brumus, respectively. In initial time the predator and prey ratio indicated that there was not a big difference between predator and prey ratio. After January 1st, the population of aphid increased suddenly until 18th February and it established a significant difference between predator prey ratios. After that aphid population started decreasing and it affected ratio between pest and predators. It is concluded that biotic factors, 7-spotted, zigzag, 9-spotted Brumus and lacewing exhibited a strong and positive correlation with aphid population. It is suggested that aphid pest should be monitored regularly and before reaching economic threshold level augmentation of natural enemies may be managed.

Keywords: aphid, ecology, population, safflower

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Authors: Tzu-Jung Tseng, Pei-Hsuen Han, Tsung-Hsueh Lu

Abstract:

Background: Ensuring patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) access to hospitals that could perform percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in time is an important concern of healthcare managers. One commonly used the method to assess the coverage of population access to PCI hospital is the use GIS-estimated linear distance (crow's fly distance) between the district centroid and the nearest PCI hospital. If the distance is within a given distance (such as 20 km), the entire population of that district is considered to have appropriate access to PCI. The premise of using district centroid to estimate the coverage of population resident in that district is that the people live in the district are evenly distributed. In reality, the population density is not evenly distributed within the administrative district, especially in rural districts. Fortunately, the Taiwan government released basic statistical area (on average 450 population within the area) recently, which provide us an opportunity to estimate the coverage of population access to PCI services more accurate. Objectives: We aimed in this study to compare the population covered by a give PCI hospital according to traditional administrative district versus basic statistical area. We further examined if the differences between two geographic units used would be larger in a rural area than in urban area. Method: We selected two hospitals in Tainan City for this analysis. Hospital A is in urban area, hospital B is in rural area. The population in each traditional administrative district and basic statistical area are obtained from Taiwan National Geographic Information System, Ministry of Internal Affairs. Results: Estimated population live within 20 km of hospital A and B was 1,515,846 and 323,472 according to traditional administrative district and was 1,506,325 and 428,556 according to basic statistical area. Conclusion: In urban area, the estimated access population to PCI services was similar between two geographic units. However, in rural areas, the access population would be overestimated.

Keywords: accessibility, basic statistical area, modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI)

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Authors: Abhigyan Hedau, Priya Shelke, Riddhi Mirajkar, Shreyash Chaple, Mrunali Gadekar, Himanshu Akula

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The heart is the coordinating centre of the major endocrine glandular structure of the body, which produces hormones that profoundly affect the operations of the body, and diagnosing cardiovascular disease is a difficult but critical task. By extracting knowledge and information about the disease from patient data, data mining is a more practical technique to help doctors detect disorders. We use a variety of machine learning methods here, including logistic regression and support vector classifiers (SVC), K-nearest neighbours Classifiers (KNN), Decision Tree Classifiers, Random Forest classifiers and Gradient Boosting classifiers. These algorithms are applied to patient data containing 13 different factors to build a system that predicts heart disease in less time with more accuracy.

Keywords: logistic regression, support vector classifier, k-nearest neighbour, decision tree, random forest and gradient boosting

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Authors: Aklilu Getahun Sulito

Abstract:

Land Use and Land Cover change dynamics is a result of complex interactions betweenseveral bio- physical and socio-economic conditions. The impacts of the landcoverchange on stream flow and sediment yield were analyzed statistically usingthehydrological model, SWAT. Genale Dawa Dam III watershed is highly af ectedbydeforestation, over grazing, and agricultural land expansion. This study was aimedusingSWAT model for the assessment of impacts of land use land cover change on sediment yield, evaluating stream flow on wet &dry seasons and spatial distribution sediment yieldfrom sub-basins of the Genale Dawa Dam III watershed. Land use land cover maps(LULC) of 2000, 2008 and 2016 were used with same corresponding climate data. During the study period most parts of the forest, dense forest evergreen and grass landchanged to cultivated land. The cultivated land increased by 26.2%but forest land, forest evergreen lands and grass lands decreased by 21.33%, 11.59 % and 7.28 %respectively, following that the mean annual sediment yield of watershed increased by 7.37ton/haover16 years period (2000 – 2016). The analysis of stream flow for wet and dry seasonsshowed that the steam flow increased by 25.5% during wet season, but decreasedby29.6% in the dry season. The result an average annual spatial distribution of sediment yield increased by 7.73ton/ha yr -1 from (2000_2016). The calibration results for bothstream flow and sediment yield showed good agreement between observed and simulateddata with the coef icient of determination of 0.87 and 0.84, Nash-Sutclif e ef iciencyequality to 0.83 and 0.78 and percentage bias of -7.39% and -10.90%respectively. Andthe result for validation for both stream flow and sediment showed good result withCoef icient of determination equality to 0.83 and 0.80, Nash-Sutclif e ef iciency of 0.78and 0.75 and percentage bias of 7.09% and 3.95%. The result obtained fromthe model based on the above method was the mean annual sediment load at Genale DawaDamIIIwatershed increase from 2000 to 2016 for the reason that of the land uses change. Sotouse the Genale Dawa Dam III the land use management practices are neededinthefuture to prevent further increase of sediment yield of the watershed.

Keywords: Genale Dawa Dam III watershed, land use land cover change, SWAT, spatial distribution, sediment yield, stream flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 26

Authors: D. K. Rao, M. G. M. Khan, K. G. Reddy

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The focus of this paper is to develop a technique of solving a combined problem of determining Optimum Strata Boundaries (OSB) and Optimum Sample Size (OSS) of each stratum, when the population understudy is skewed and the study variable has a Pareto frequency distribution. The problem of determining the OSB is formulated as a Mathematical Programming Problem (MPP) which is then solved by dynamic programming technique. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the computational details of the proposed method. The proposed technique is useful to obtain OSB and OSS for a Pareto type skewed population, which minimizes the variance of the estimate of population mean.

Keywords: stratified sampling, optimum strata boundaries, optimum sample size, pareto distribution, mathematical programming problem, dynamic programming technique

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Authors: Derradji Chebli, Abdallah Bouguettoucha, Abdelbaki Reffas Khalil Guediri, Abdeltif Amrane

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The removal of Methyl Green dye (MG) from aqueous solutions using modified P-brutia cones (PBH and PBN), has been investigated work. The physical parameters such as pH, temperature, initial MG concentration, ionic strength are examined in batch experiments on the sorption of the dye. Adsorption removal of MG was conducted at natural pH 4.5 because the dye is only stable in the range of pH 3.8 to 5. It was observed in experiments that the P-brutia cones treated with NaOH (PBN) exhibited high affinity and adsorption capacity compared to the MG P-brutia cones treated with HCl (PBH) and biosorption capacity of modified P-brutia cones (PBN and PBH) was enhanced by increasing the temperature. This is confirmed by the thermodynamic parameters (ΔG° and ΔH°) which show that the adsorption of MG was spontaneous and endothermic in nature. The positive values of ΔS° suggested an irregular increase in the randomness for both adsorbent (PBN and PBH) during the adsorption process. The kinetic model pseudo-first order, pseudo-second order, and intraparticle diffusion coefficient were examined to analyze the sorption process; they showed that the pseudo-second-order model is the one that best describes the adsorption process (MG) on PBN and PBH with a correlation coefficient R²> 0.999. The ionic strength has shown that it has a negative impact on the adsorption of MG on two supports. A reduction of 68.5% of the adsorption capacity for a value Ce=30 mg/L was found for the PBH, while the PBN did not show a significant influence of the ionic strength on adsorption especially in the presence of NaCl. Among the tested isotherm models, the Langmuir isotherm was found to be the most relevant to describe MG sorption onto modified P-brutia cones with a correlation factor R²>0.999. The capacity adsorption of P-brutia cones, was confirmed for the removal of a dye, MG, from aqueous solution. We note also that P-brutia cones is a material very available in the forest and low-cost biomaterial

Keywords: adsorption, p-brutia cones, forest wastes, dyes, isotherm

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Authors: Jahede Tekeykhah, Seyed Mohsen Hossini, Gholamali Jalali

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Industrial and traffic activities cause large amounts of heavy metals enter into the atmosphere and the use of plant species can be effective in assessing and reducing air pollution by metals. This study aimed to investigate the adsorption level of heavy metals in leaves of Fraxinus rotundifolia, Robinia, Platanus orientalis, Platycladus orientalis and Pinus eldarica trees in Abidar forest park. For this purpose, samples leaves of the trees were prepared from the contaminated and control areas in each region in 3 stations with 3 replicates in mid-August and finally 90 samples were sent to the laboratory. Then, the concentrations of heavy metals were measured by graphite furnace. To do this, factorial experiment based on a completely randomized design with two factors of location on two levels (contaminated area and control area) and the factor of species on five levels (Fraxinus rotundifolia, Robinia, Platanus orientalis, Platycladus orientalis and Pinus eldarica) with three replications was used. The analysis of collected data was performed by SPSS software and Duncan's multiple range test was used to compare the means. The results showed that the accumulation of all metals in the leaves of most species in the infected area with a significant difference at 95% level was higher than the control area. In the contaminated area, with a significant difference at 5% level, the highest accumulations of metals were observed as the following: lead, cadmium, zinc and manganese in Platanus orientalis, nickel in Fraxinus rotundifolia and copper in Platycladus orientalis.

Keywords: airborne, tree species, heavy metals, absorption, Abidar Forest Park

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Authors: Ruan Yi-Chen, Li Wang-Ming, Fang Yuan

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With the rapid growth of urbanization in China in recent years, public services are in short supply because of expanding population and limitation of financial support, which makes delicate configuration of public service facilities to become a trend in urban planning. Besides, the facility configuration standard implemented in China is equal to the whole the urban area without considering internal differences in it. Therefore, this article focuses on population Spatial disparities analysis in order to optimize facility configuration in communities of main city district. The used data, including population of 93 communities during 2010 to 2015, comes from GongShu district, Hangzhou city, PRC. Through the analysis of population data, especially the age structure of those communities, the communities finally divided into 3 types. Obviously, urban public service facilities allocation situation directly affect the quality of residents common lives, which turns out that deferent kinds of communities with deferent groups of citizens will have divergences in facility demanding. So in the end of the article, strategies of facility configuration will be proposed based on the population analysis in order to optimize the quantity and location of facilities with delicacy.

Keywords: delicacy, facility configuration, population spatial disparities, urban area

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Authors: James Purnama, Riri Fitri Sari

Abstract:

We investigate the machine learning algorithm selection problem in the term of a depth image based eye gaze estimation, with respect to its essential difficulty in reducing the number of required training samples and duration time of training. Statistics based prediction accuracy are increasingly used to assess and evaluate prediction or estimation in gaze estimation. This article evaluates Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and R-Squared statistical analysis to assess machine learning methods on depth camera data for gaze estimation. There are 4 machines learning methods have been evaluated: Random Forest Regression, Regression Tree, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Regression. The experiment results show that the Random Forest Regression has the lowest RMSE and the highest R-Squared, which means that it is the best among other methods.

Keywords: gaze estimation, gaze tracking, eye tracking, kinect, regression model, orange python

Procedia PDF Downloads 512