Search results for: classifiers accuracy

Authors: Zsolt János Viharos, Krisztián Balázs Kis, Imre Paniti, Gábor Belső, Péter Németh, János Farkas

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The paper presents the results and industrial applications in the production setup period estimation based on industrial data inherited from the field of polymer cutting. The literature of polymer cutting is very limited considering the number of publications. The first polymer cutting machine is known since the second half of the 20th century; however, the production of polymer parts with this kind of technology is still a challenging research topic. The products of the applying industrial partner must met high technical requirements, as they are used in medical, measurement instrumentation and painting industry branches. Typically, 20% of these parts are new work, which means every five years almost the entire product portfolio is replaced in their low series manufacturing environment. Consequently, it requires a flexible production system, where the estimation of the frequent setup periods' lengths is one of the key success factors. In the investigation, several (input) parameters have been studied and grouped to create an adequate training information set for an artificial neural network as a base for the estimation of the individual setup periods. In the first group, product information is collected such as the product name and number of items. The second group contains material data like material type and colour. In the third group, surface quality and tolerance information are collected including the finest surface and tightest (or narrowest) tolerance. The fourth group contains the setup data like machine type and work shift. One source of these parameters is the Manufacturing Execution System (MES) but some data were also collected from Computer Aided Design (CAD) drawings. The number of the applied tools is one of the key factors on which the industrial partners’ estimations were based previously. The artificial neural network model was trained on several thousands of real industrial data. The mean estimation accuracy of the setup periods' lengths was improved by 30%, and in the same time the deviation of the prognosis was also improved by 50%. Furthermore, an investigation on the mentioned parameter groups considering the manufacturing order was also researched. The paper also highlights the manufacturing introduction experiences and further improvements of the proposed methods, both on the shop floor and on the quotation preparation fields. Every week more than 100 real industrial setup events are given and the related data are collected.

Keywords: artificial neural network, low series manufacturing, polymer cutting, setup period estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: N. D'Amico, E. Grossi, B. Colombo, F. Rigiroli, M. Buscema, D. Fazzini, G. Cornalba, S. Papa

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Purpose: To characterize, through a radiomic approach, the nature of nodules considered non-specific by expert radiologists, recognized in magnetic resonance mammography (MRm) with T1-weighted (T1w) sequences with paramagnetic contrast. Material and Methods: 47 cases out of 1200 undergoing MRm, in which the MRm assessment gave uncertain classification (non-specific nodules), were admitted to the study. The clinical outcome of the non-specific nodules was later found through follow-up or further exams (biopsy), finding 35 benign and 12 malignant. All MR Images were acquired at 1.5T, a first basal T1w sequence and then four T1w acquisitions after the paramagnetic contrast injection. After a manual segmentation of the lesions, done by a radiologist, and the extraction of 150 radiomic features (30 features per 5 subsequent times) a machine learning (ML) approach was used. An evolutionary algorithm (TWIST system based on KNN algorithm) was used to subdivide the dataset into training and validation test and to select features yielding the maximal amount of information. After this pre-processing, different machine learning systems were applied to develop a predictive model based on a training-testing crossover procedure. 10 cases with a benign nodule (follow-up older than 5 years) and 18 with an evident malignant tumor (clear malignant histological exam) were added to the dataset in order to allow the ML system to better learn from data. Results: NaiveBayes algorithm working on 79 features selected by a TWIST system, resulted to be the best performing ML system with a sensitivity of 96% and a specificity of 78% and a global accuracy of 87% (average values of two training-testing procedures ab-ba). The results showed that in the subset of 47 non-specific nodules, the algorithm predicted the outcome of 45 nodules which an expert radiologist could not identify. Conclusion: In this pilot study we identified a radiomic approach allowing ML systems to perform well in the diagnosis of a non-specific nodule at MR mammography. This algorithm could be a great support for the early diagnosis of malignant breast tumor, in the event the radiologist is not able to identify the kind of lesion and reduces the necessity for long follow-up. Clinical Relevance: This machine learning algorithm could be essential to support the radiologist in early diagnosis of non-specific nodules, in order to avoid strenuous follow-up and painful biopsy for the patient.

Keywords: breast, machine learning, MRI, radiomics

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Authors: Wenqi Liu, Reginald Bailey

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This study proposes a comprehensive and effective approach to business-to-business (B2B) sales forecasting by integrating advanced machine learning models with a rule-based decision-making framework. The methodology addresses the critical challenge of optimizing sales pipeline performance and improving conversion rates through predictive analytics and actionable insights. The first component involves developing a classification model to predict the likelihood of conversion, aiming to outperform traditional methods such as logistic regression in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. Feature importance analysis highlights key predictive factors, such as client revenue size and sales velocity, providing valuable insights into conversion dynamics. The second component focuses on forecasting sales value using a regression model, designed to achieve superior performance compared to linear regression by minimizing mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and maximizing R-squared metrics. The regression analysis identifies primary drivers of sales value, further informing data-driven strategies. To bridge the gap between predictive modeling and actionable outcomes, a rule-based decision framework is introduced. This model categorizes leads into high, medium, and low priorities based on thresholds for conversion probability and predicted sales value. By combining classification and regression outputs, this framework enables sales teams to allocate resources effectively, focus on high-value opportunities, and streamline lead management processes. The integrated approach significantly enhances lead prioritization, increases conversion rates, and drives revenue generation, offering a robust solution to the declining pipeline conversion rates faced by many B2B organizations. Our findings demonstrate the practical benefits of blending machine learning with decision-making frameworks, providing a scalable, data-driven solution for strategic sales optimization. This study underscores the potential of predictive analytics to transform B2B sales operations, enabling more informed decision-making and improved organizational outcomes in competitive markets.

Keywords: machine learning, XGBoost, regression, decision making framework, system engineering

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Authors: Samuel Faboyede, Obiamaka Nwobu, Samuel Fakile, Dickson Mukoro

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In the present dynamic business environment of corporate governance and regulations, financial reporting is an inevitable and extremely significant process for every business enterprise. Several financial elements such as Annual Reports, Quarterly Reports, ad-hoc filing, and other statutory/regulatory reports provide vital information to the investors and regulators, and establish trust and rapport between the internal and external stakeholders of an organization. Investors today are very demanding, and emphasize greatly on authenticity, accuracy, and reliability of financial data. For many companies, the Internet plays a key role in communicating business information, internally to management and externally to stakeholders. Despite high prominence being attached to external reporting, it is disconnected in most companies, who generate their external financial documents manually, resulting in high degree of errors and prolonged cycle times. Chief Executive Officers and Chief Financial Officers are increasingly susceptible to endorsing error-laden reports, late filing of reports, and non-compliance with regulatory acts. There is a lack of common platform to manage the sensitive information – internally and externally – in financial reports. The Internet financial reporting language known as eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) continues to develop in the face of challenges and has now reached the point where much of its promised benefits are available. This paper looks at the emergence of this revolutionary twenty-first century language of digital reporting. It posits that today, the world is on the brink of an Internet revolution that will redefine the ‘business reporting’ paradigm. The new Internet technology, eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL), is already being deployed and used across the world. It finds that XBRL is an eXtensible Markup Language (XML) based information format that places self-describing tags around discrete pieces of business information. Once tags are assigned, it is possible to extract only desired information, rather than having to download or print an entire document. XBRL is platform-independent and it will work on any current or recent-year operating system, or any computer and interface with virtually any software. The paper concludes that corporate stakeholders and the government cannot afford to ignore the XBRL. It therefore recommends that all must act locally and think globally now via the adoption of XBRL that is changing the face of worldwide business reporting.

Keywords: XBRL, financial reporting, internet, internal and external reports

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Deniz A. Apostol, Denyl A. Apostol, Oliver T. Macapinlac, George S. Katigbak

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Ang lupa ay buhay at ang buhay ay lupa (land is life and life is land). Based on the 2015 census, the Indigenous Peoples (IPs) population in the Philippines is estimated to be 11.3-20.2 million. They hail from various regions, possess distinct cultures, but encounter shared struggles in territorial disputes. Itogon, the largest Benguet municipality, is home to the Ibaloi, Kankanaey, and other Igorot tribes. Despite having three (3) Ancestral Domains (ADs), Itogon is predominantly labeled as timberland or forest. These overlapping land classifications highlight the presence of inconsistencies in national laws and jurisdictions. This study aims to analyze surveying procedures used by the Igorots, NCIP, and DENR in mapping the Itogon AD Boundaries, show land boundary delineation conflicts, propose surveying guidelines, and recommend 3D Participatory Mapping as geomatics solution for updated AD reference maps. Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA), Comparative Legal Analysis (CLA), and Map Overlay Analysis (MOA) were utilized to examine the interviews, compare land policies and surveying procedures, and identify differences and overlaps in conflicting land boundaries. In the IPA, master themes identified were AD Definition (rights, responsibilities, restrictions), AD Overlaps (land classifications, political boundaries, ancestral domains, land laws/policies), and Other Conflicts (with other agencies, misinterpretations, suggestions), as considerations for mapping ADs. CLA focused on conflicting surveying procedures: AD Definitions, Surveying Equipment, Surveying Methods, Map Projections, Order of Accuracy, Monuments, Survey Parties, Pre-survey, Survey Proper, and Post-survey procedures. MOA emphasized the land area percentage of conflicting areas, showcasing the impact of misaligned surveying procedures. The findings are summarized through a Land Administration Domain Model (LADM) Conflict, for AD versus AD and Political Boundaries. The products of this study are identification of land conflict factors, survey guidelines recommendations, and contested land area computations. These can serve as references for revising survey manuals, updating AD Sustainable Development and Protection Plans, and making amendments to laws.

Keywords: ancestral domain, gis, indigenous people, land policies, participatory mapping, surveying, survey procedures

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Authors: Hesam Gholami

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Elevated suspended sediment loads in riverine systems resulting from accelerated erosion due to human activities are a serious threat to the sustainable management of watersheds and ecosystem services therein worldwide. Therefore, mitigation of deleterious sediment effects as a distributed or non-point pollution source in the catchments requires reliable provenance information. Sediment tracing or sediment fingerprinting, as a combined process consisting of sampling, laboratory measurements, different statistical tests, and the application of mixing or unmixing models, is a useful technique for discriminating the sources of sediments. From 1996 to the present, different aspects of this technique, such as grouping the sources (spatial and individual sources), discriminating the potential sources by different statistical techniques, and modification of mixing and unmixing models, have been introduced and modified by many researchers worldwide, and have been applied to identify the provenance of fine materials in agricultural, rural, mountainous, and coastal catchments, and in large catchments with numerous lakes and reservoirs. In the last two decades, efforts exploring the uncertainties associated with sediment fingerprinting results have attracted increasing attention. The frameworks used to quantify the uncertainty associated with fingerprinting estimates can be divided into three groups comprising Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian approaches and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). Given the above background, the primary goal of this study was to apply geochemical fingerprinting within the GLUE framework in the estimation of sub-basin spatial sediment source contributions in the arid Mehran River catchment in southern Iran, which drains into the Persian Gulf. The accuracy of GLUE predictions generated using four different sets of statistical tests for discriminating three sub-basin spatial sources was evaluated using 10 virtual sediments (VS) samples with known source contributions using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Based on the results, the contributions modeled by GLUE for the western, central and eastern sub-basins are 1-42% (overall mean 20%), 0.5-30% (overall mean 12%) and 55-84% (overall mean 68%), respectively. According to the mean absolute fit (MAF; ≥ 95% for all target sediment samples) and goodness-of-fit (GOF; ≥ 99% for all samples), our suggested modeling approach is an accurate technique to quantify the source of sediments in the catchments. Overall, the estimated source proportions can help watershed engineers plan the targeting of conservation programs for soil and water resources.

Keywords: sediment source tracing, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation, virtual sediment mixtures, Iran

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Authors: E. Menga, S. Hernandez

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Finite Element Models (FEMs) are widely used in order to study and predict the dynamic properties of structures and usually, the prediction can be obtained with much more accuracy in the case of a single component than in the case of assemblies. Especially for structural dynamics studies, in the low and middle frequency range, most complex FEMs can be seen as assemblies made by linear components joined together at interfaces. From a modelling and computational point of view, these types of joints can be seen as localized sources of stiffness and damping and can be modelled as lumped spring/damper elements, most of time, characterized by nonlinear constitutive laws. On the other side, most of FE programs are able to run nonlinear analysis in time-domain. They treat the whole structure as nonlinear, even if there is one nonlinear degree of freedom (DOF) out of thousands of linear ones, making the analysis unnecessarily expensive from a computational point of view. In this work, a methodology in order to obtain the nonlinear frequency response of structures, whose nonlinearities can be considered as localized sources, is presented. The work extends the well-known Structural Dynamic Modification Method (SDMM) to a nonlinear set of modifications, and allows getting the Nonlinear Frequency Response Functions (NLFRFs), through an ‘updating’ process of the Linear Frequency Response Functions (LFRFs). A brief summary of the analytical concepts is given, starting from the linear formulation and understanding what the implications of the nonlinear one, are. The response of the system is formulated in both: time and frequency domain. First the Modal Database is extracted and the linear response is calculated. Secondly the nonlinear response is obtained thru the NL SDMM, by updating the underlying linear behavior of the system. The methodology, implemented in MATLAB, has been successfully applied to estimate the nonlinear frequency response of two systems. The first one is a two DOFs spring-mass-damper system, and the second example takes into account a full aircraft FE Model. In spite of the different levels of complexity, both examples show the reliability and effectiveness of the method. The results highlight a feasible and robust procedure, which allows a quick estimation of the effect of localized nonlinearities on the dynamic behavior. The method is particularly powerful when most of the FE Model can be considered as acting linearly and the nonlinear behavior is restricted to few degrees of freedom. The procedure is very attractive from a computational point of view because the FEM needs to be run just once, which allows faster nonlinear sensitivity analysis and easier implementation of optimization procedures for the calibration of nonlinear models.

Keywords: frequency response, nonlinear dynamics, structural dynamic modification, softening effect, rubber

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Authors: Serpil Kilic, Ihsan Burak Cam, Murat Kilic, Timur Tongur

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Interest in the lead (Pb) has considerably increased due to knowledge about the potential toxic effects of this element, recently. Exposure to heavy metals above the acceptable limit affects human health. Indeed, Pb is accumulated through food chains up to toxic concentrations; therefore, it can pose an adverse potential threat to human health. A sensitive and reliable method for determination of Pb element in red pepper were improved in the present study. Samples (33 red pepper products having different brands) were purchased from different markets in Turkey. The selected method validation criteria (linearity, Limit of Detection, Limit of Quantification, recovery, and trueness) demonstrated. Recovery values close to 100% showed adequate precision and accuracy for analysis. According to the results of red pepper analysis, all of the tested lead element in the samples was determined at various concentrations. A Perkin- Elmer ELAN DRC-e model ICP-MS system was used for detection of Pb. Organic red pepper was used to obtain a matrix for all method validation studies. The certified reference material, Fapas chili powder, was digested and analyzed, together with the different sample batches. Three replicates from each sample were digested and analyzed. The results of the exposure levels of the elements were discussed considering the scientific opinions of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), which is the European Union’s (EU) risk assessment source associated with food safety. The Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) was described by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for the calculation of potential health risks associated with long-term exposure to chemical pollutants. THQ value contains intake of elements, exposure frequency and duration, body weight and the oral reference dose (RfD). If the THQ value is lower than one, it means that the exposed population is assumed to be safe and 1 < THQ < 5 means that the exposed population is in a level of concern interval. In this study, the THQ of Pb was obtained as < 1. The results of THQ calculations showed that the values were below one for all the tested, meaning the samples did not pose a health risk to the local population. This work was supported by The Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit of Akdeniz University. Project Number: FBA-2017-2494.

Keywords: lead analyses, red pepper, risk assessment, daily exposure

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Authors: Mingxia Zhu, Matthew Tingchi Liu

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AI grows gradually in the market with its efficiency and accuracy, influencing people’s perceptions, attitude, and even consequential behaviors. Current study extends prior research by focusing on AI’s impact on consumers’ morality. First, study 1 tested individuals’ believes about AI and human’s moral perceptions and people’s attribution of moral worth to AI and human. Moral perception refers to a computational system an entity maintains to detect and identify moral violations, while moral worth here denotes whether individual regard an entity as worthy of moral treatment. To identify the effect of AI on consumers’ morality, two studies were employed. Study 1 is a within-subjects survey, while study 2 is an experimental study. In the study 1, one hundred and forty participants were recruited through online survey company in China (M_age = 27.31 years, SD = 7.12 years; 65% female). The participants were asked to assign moral perception and moral worth to AI and human. A paired samples t-test reveals that people generally regard that human has higher moral perception (M_Human = 6.03, SD = .86) than AI (M_AI = 2.79, SD = 1.19; t(139) = 27.07, p < .001; Cohen’s d = 1.41). In addition, another paired samples t-test results showed that people attributed higher moral worth to the human personnel (M_Human = 6.39, SD = .56) compared with AIs (M_AI = 5.43, SD = .85; t(139) = 12.96, p < .001; d = .88). In the next study, two hundred valid samples were recruited from survey company in China (M_age = 27.87 years, SD = 6.68 years; 55% female) and the participants were randomly assigned to two conditions (AI vs. human). After viewing the stimuli of human versus AI, participants are informed that one insurance company would determine the price purely based on their declaration. Therefore, their open-ended answers were coded into ethical, honest behavior and unethical, dishonest behavior according to the design of prior literature. A Chi-square analysis revealed that 64% of the participants would immorally lie towards AI insurance inspector while 42% of participants reported deliberately lower mileage facing with human inspector (χ^2 (1) = 9.71, p = .002). Similarly, the logistic regression results suggested that people would significantly more likely to report fraudulent answer when facing with AI (β = .89, odds ratio = 2.45, Wald = 9.56, p = .002). It is demonstrated that people would be more likely to behave unethically in front of non-human agents, such as AI agent, rather than human. The research findings shed light on new practical ethical issues in human-AI interaction and address the important role of human employees during the process of service delivery in the new era of AI.

Keywords: AI agent, consumer morality, ethical behavior, human-AI interaction

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Authors: Sittampalam Manoharan, Gary Chai, Sanaul Chowdhury, Andrew Golding

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The primary objective of this paper is to present a simplified approach to develop the structural deterioration model using traffic speed deflectometer data for flexible pavements. Maintaining assets to meet functional performance is not economical or sustainable in the long terms, and it would end up needing much more investments for road agencies and extra costs for road users. Performance models have to be included for structural and functional predicting capabilities, in order to assess the needs, and the time frame of those needs. As such structural modelling plays a vital role in the prediction of pavement performance. A structural condition is important for the prediction of remaining life and overall health of a road network and also major influence on the valuation of road pavement. Therefore, the structural deterioration model is a critical input into pavement management system for predicting pavement rehabilitation needs accurately. The Traffic Speed Deflectometer (TSD) is a vehicle-mounted Doppler laser system that is capable of continuously measuring the structural bearing capacity of a pavement whilst moving at traffic speeds. The device’s high accuracy, high speed, and continuous deflection profiles are useful for network-level applications such as predicting road rehabilitations needs and remaining structural service life. The methodology adopted in this model by utilizing time series TSD maximum deflection (D0) data in conjunction with rutting, rutting progression, pavement age, subgrade strength and equivalent standard axle (ESA) data. Then, regression analyses were undertaken to establish a correlation equation of structural deterioration as a function of rutting, pavement age, seal age and equivalent standard axle (ESA). This study developed a simple structural deterioration model which will enable to incorporate available TSD structural data in pavement management system for developing network-level pavement investment strategies. Therefore, the available funding can be used effectively to minimize the whole –of- life cost of the road asset and also improve pavement performance. This study will contribute to narrowing the knowledge gap in structural data usage in network level investment analysis and provide a simple methodology to use structural data effectively in investment decision-making process for road agencies to manage aging road assets.

Keywords: adjusted structural number (SNP), maximum deflection (D0), equant standard axle (ESA), traffic speed deflectometer (TSD)

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Golnush Masghati-Amoli, Paul Chin

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Over the past recent years, with the rapid increases in data availability and computing power, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been called on in a range of different industries for their strong predictive capability. However, the use of Machine Learning in commercial banking has been limited due to a special challenge imposed by numerous regulations that require lenders to be able to explain their analytic models, not only to regulators but often to consumers. In other words, although Machine Leaning techniques enable better prediction with a higher level of accuracy, in comparison with other industries, they are adopted less frequently in commercial banking especially for scoring purposes. This is due to the fact that Machine Learning techniques are often considered as a black box and fail to provide information on why a certain risk score is given to a customer. In order to bridge this gap between the explain-ability and performance of Machine Learning techniques, a Hybrid Model is developed at Dun and Bradstreet that is focused on blending Machine Learning algorithms with traditional approaches such as scorecards. The Hybrid Model maximizes efficiency of traditional scorecards by merging its practical benefits, such as explain-ability and the ability to input domain knowledge, with the deep insights of Machine Learning techniques which can uncover patterns scorecard approaches cannot. First, through development of Machine Learning models, engineered features and latent variables and feature interactions that demonstrate high information value in the prediction of customer risk are identified. Then, these features are employed to introduce observed non-linear relationships between the explanatory and dependent variables into traditional scorecards. Moreover, instead of directly computing the Weight of Evidence (WoE) from good and bad data points, the Hybrid Model tries to match the score distribution generated by a Machine Learning algorithm, which ends up providing an estimate of the WoE for each bin. This capability helps to build powerful scorecards with sparse cases that cannot be achieved with traditional approaches. The proposed Hybrid Model is tested on different portfolios where a significant gap is observed between the performance of traditional scorecards and Machine Learning models. The result of analysis shows that Hybrid Model can improve the performance of traditional scorecards by introducing non-linear relationships between explanatory and target variables from Machine Learning models into traditional scorecards. Also, it is observed that in some scenarios the Hybrid Model can be almost as predictive as the Machine Learning techniques while being as transparent as traditional scorecards. Therefore, it is concluded that, with the use of Hybrid Model, Machine Learning algorithms can be used in the commercial banking industry without being concerned with difficulties in explaining the models for regulatory purposes.

Keywords: machine learning algorithms, scorecard, commercial banking, consumer risk, feature engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Ahmed Elaksher

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Over the last few years, significant progresses have been made and new approaches have been proposed for efficient collection of 3D spatial data from Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with reduced costs compared to imagery from satellite or manned aircraft. In these systems, a low-cost GPS unit provides the position, velocity of the vehicle, a low-quality inertial measurement unit (IMU) determines its orientation, and off-the-shelf cameras capture the images. Structure from Motion (SfM) and photogrammetry are the main tools for 3D surface reconstruction from images collected by these systems. Unlike traditional techniques, SfM allows the computation of calibration parameters using point correspondences across images without performing a rigorous laboratory or field calibration process and it is more flexible in that it does not require consistent image overlap or same rotation angles between successive photos. These benefits make SfM ideal for UAVs aerial mapping. In this paper, a direct comparison between SfM Digital Elevation Models (DEM) and those generated through traditional photogrammetric techniques was performed. Data was collected by a 3DR IRIS+ Quadcopter with a Canon PowerShot S100 digital camera. Twenty ground control points were randomly distributed on the ground and surveyed with a total station in a local coordinate system. Images were collected from an altitude of 30 meters with a ground resolution of nine mm/pixel. Data was processed with PhotoScan, VisualSFM, Imagine Photogrammetry, and a photogrammetric algorithm developed by the author. The algorithm starts with performing a laboratory camera calibration then the acquired imagery undergoes an orientation procedure to determine the cameras’ positions and orientations. After the orientation is attained, correlation based image matching is conducted to automatically generate three-dimensional surface models followed by a refining step using sub-pixel image information for high matching accuracy. Tests with different number and configurations of the control points were conducted. Camera calibration parameters estimated from commercial software and those obtained with laboratory procedures were comparable. Exposure station positions were within less than few centimeters and insignificant differences, within less than three seconds, among orientation angles were found. DEM differencing was performed between generated DEMs and few centimeters vertical shifts were found.

Keywords: UAV, photogrammetry, SfM, DEM

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Authors: Abdelmanie Suleimat, Nagham Abu Shaqra, Sawsan Majali, Issam Adawi, Heba Abo Shindi, Anas Al Mohtaseb

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The Government of Jordan recognizes that maternal mortality constitutes a grave public health problem. Over the past two decades, there has been significant progress in improving the quality of maternal health services, resulting in improved maternal and child health outcomes. Despite these efforts, measurement and analysis of maternal mortality remained a challenge, with significant discrepancies from previous national surveys that inhibited accuracy. In response with support from USAID, the Jordan Maternal Mortality Surveillance Response (JMMSR) System was established to collect, analyze, and equip policymakers with data for decision-making guided by interdisciplinary multi-levelled advisory groups aiming to eliminate preventable maternal deaths, A 2016 Public Health Bylaw required the notification of deaths among women of reproductive age. The JMMSR system was launched in 2018 and continues annually, analyzing data received from health facilities, to guide policy to prevent avoidable deaths. To date, there have been four annual national maternal mortality reports (2018-2021). Data is collected, reviewed by advisory groups, and then consolidated in an annual report to inform and guide the Ministry of Health (MOH); JMMSR collects the necessary information to calculate an accurate maternal mortality ratio and assists in identifying leading causes and contributing factors for each maternal death. Based on this data, national response plans are created. A monitoring and evaluation plan was designed to define, track, and improve implementation through indicators. Over the past four years, one of these indicators, ‘percent of facilities notifying respective health directorates of all deaths of women of reproductive age,’ increased annually from 82.16%, 92.95%, and 92.50% to 97.02%, respectively. The Government of Jordan demonstrated commitment to the JMMSR system by designating the MOH to primarily host the system and lead the development and dissemination of policies and procedures to standardize implementation. The data was translated into practical and evidence-based recommendations. The successful impact of results deepened the understanding of maternal mortality in Jordan, which convinced the MOH to amend the Bylaw now mandating electronic reporting of all births and neonatal deaths from health facilities to empower the JMMSR system, by developing a stillbirths and neonatal mortality surveillance and response system.

Keywords: maternal health, maternal mortality, preventable maternal deaths, maternal morbidity

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Authors: Guillermo E. Quintero, Edwin G. Perez, Oriel Sanchez, Christian Espinosa-Bustos, Denis Fuentealba, Margarita E. Aliaga

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Bisulfite ion (HSO3-) has been used as a preservative in food, drinks, and medication. However, it is well-known that HSO3- can cause health problems like asthma and allergic reactions in people. Due to the above, the development of analytical methods for detecting this ion has gained great interest. In line with the above, the current use of colorimetric and/or fluorescent probes as a detection technique has acquired great relevance due to their high sensitivity and accuracy. In this context, 2-quinolinone derivatives have been found to possess promising activity as antiviral agents, sensitizers in solar cells, antifungals, antioxidants, and sensors. In particular, 7-(diethylamino)-2-quinolinone derivatives have attracted attention in recent years since their suitable photophysical properties become promising fluorescent probes. In Addition, there is evidence that photophysical properties and reactivity can be affected by the study medium, such as micellar media. Based on the above background, 7-(diethylamino)-2-quinolinone derivatives based chalcone will be able to be incorporated into a cationic micellar environment (Cetyltrimethylammonium bromide, CTAB). Furthermore, the supramolecular control induced by the micellar environment will increase the reactivity of these derivatives towards nucleophilic analytes such as HSO3- (Michael-type addition reaction), leading to the generation of new colorimetric and/or fluorescent probes. In the present study, two derivatives of 7-(diethylamino)-2-quinolinone based chalcone DQD1-2 were synthesized according to the method reported by the literature. These derivatives were structurally characterized by 1H, 13C NMR, and HRMS-ESI. In addition, UV-VIS and fluorescence studies determined absorption bands near 450 nm, emission bands near 600 nm, fluorescence quantum yields near 0.01, and fluorescence lifetimes of 5 ps. In line with the foregoing, these photophysical properties aforementioned were improved in the presence of a cationic micellar medium using CTAB thanks to the formation of adducts presenting association constants of the order of 2,5x105 M-1, increasing the quantum yields to 0.12 and the fluorescence lifetimes corresponding to two lifetimes near to 120 and 400 ps for DQD1 and DQD2. Besides, thanks to the presence of the micellar medium, the reactivity of these derivatives with nucleophilic analytes, such as HSO3-, was increased. This was achieved through kinetic studies, which demonstrated an increase in the bimolecular rate constants in the presence of a micellar medium. Finally, probe DQD1 was chosen as the best sensor since it was assessed to detect HSO3- with excellent results.

Keywords: bisulfite detection, cationic micelle, colorimetric probes, quinolinone derivatives

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Authors: Sau Kam Adeline Chan

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World Health Organization had listed ‘Communication during Patient Care Handovers’ as one of its highest 5 patient safety initiatives. Clinical handover means transfer of accountability and responsibility of clinical information from one health professional to another. The main goal of clinical handover is to convey patient’s current condition and treatment plan accurately. Ineffective communication at point of care is globally regarded as the main cause of the sentinel event. Situation, Background, Assessment and Recommendation (SBAR), a communication tool, is extensively regarded as an effective communication tool in healthcare setting. Nonetheless, just by scenario-based program in nursing school or attending workshops on SBAR would not be enough for freshly graduated nurses to apply it competently in a complex clinical practice. To what extend and in-depth of information should be conveyed during handover process is not easy to learn. As such, on-site coaching is essential to upgrade their expertise on the usage of SBAR and ultimately to avoid any clinical error. On-site coaching for all freshly graduated nurses on the usage of SBAR in clinical handover was commenced in August 2014. During the preceptorship period, freshly graduated nurses were coached by the preceptor. After that, they were gradually assigned to take care of a group of patients independently. Nurse leaders would join in their shift handover process at patient’s bedside. Feedback and support were given to them accordingly. Discrepancies on their clinical handover process were shared with them and documented for further improvement work. Owing to the constraint of manpower in nurse leader, about coaching for 30 times were provided to a nurse in a year. Staff satisfaction survey was conducted to gauge their feelings about the coaching and look into areas for further improvement. Number of clinical error avoided was documented as well. The nurses reported that there was a significant improvement particularly in their confidence and knowledge in clinical handover process. In addition, the sense of empowerment was developed when liaising with senior and experienced nurses. Their proficiency in applying SBAR was enhanced and they become more alert to the critical criteria of an effective clinical handover. Most importantly, accuracy of transferring patient’s condition was improved and repetition of information was avoided. Clinical errors were prevented and quality patient care was ensured. Using SBAR as a communication tool looks simple. The tool only provides a framework to guide the handover process. Nevertheless, without on-site training, loophole on clinical handover still exists, patient’s safety will be affected and clinical error still happens.

Keywords: freshly graduated nurse, competency of clinical handover, quality, clinical error

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Authors: Jignasha Derasari, Patel Krishna M, Modi Jignasa G.

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Chemical stability of pharmaceutical molecules is a matter of great concern as it affects the safety and efficacy of the drug product.Stability testing data provides the basis to understand how the quality of a drug substance and drug product changes with time under the influence of various environmental factors. Besides this, it also helps in selecting proper formulation and package as well as providing proper storage conditions and shelf life, which is essential for regulatory documentation. The ICH guideline states that stress testing is intended to identify the likely degradation products which further help in determination of the intrinsic stability of the molecule and establishing degradation pathways, and to validate the stability indicating procedures. A simple, accurate and precise stability indicating RP- HPLC method was developed and validated for simultaneous estimation of Amiloride Hydrochloride and Furosemide in tablet dosage form. Separation was achieved on an Phenomenexluna ODS C18 (250 mm × 4.6 mm i.d., 5 µm particle size) by using a mobile phase consisting of Ortho phosphoric acid: Acetonitrile (50:50 %v/v) at a flow rate of 1.0 ml/min (pH 3.5 adjusted with 0.1 % TEA in Water) isocratic pump mode, Injection volume 20 µl and wavelength of detection was kept at 283 nm. Retention time for Amiloride Hydrochloride and Furosemide was 1.810 min and 4.269 min respectively. Linearity of the proposed method was obtained in the range of 40-60 µg/ml and 320-480 µg/ml and Correlation coefficient was 0.999 and 0.998 for Amiloride hydrochloride and Furosemide, respectively. Forced degradation study was carried out on combined dosage form with various stress conditions like hydrolysis (acid and base hydrolysis), oxidative and thermal conditions as per ICH guideline Q2 (R1). The RP- HPLC method has shown an adequate separation for Amiloride hydrochloride and Furosemide from its degradation products. Proposed method was validated as per ICH guidelines for specificity, linearity, accuracy; precision and robustness for estimation of Amiloride hydrochloride and Furosemide in commercially available tablet dosage form and results were found to be satisfactory and significant. The developed and validated stability indicating RP-HPLC method can be used successfully for marketed formulations. Forced degradation studies help in generating degradants in much shorter span of time, mostly a few weeks can be used to develop the stability indicating method which can be applied later for the analysis of samples generated from accelerated and long term stability studies. Further, kinetic study was also performed for different forced degradation parameters of the same combination, which help in determining order of reaction.

Keywords: amiloride hydrochloride, furosemide, kinetic study, stability indicating RP-HPLC method validation

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Authors: Maria De Albuquerque Bercot, Caio Gustavo Mesquita Angelo, Daniela Maria Moreira Siqueira, Augusto Assucena De Vasconcellos, Rodrigo Studart Correa

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Mining is an important socioeconomic activity in Brazil although it negatively impacts the environment. Mineral operations cause irreversible changes in topography, removal of vegetation and topsoil, habitat destruction, displacement of fauna, loss of biodiversity, soil erosion, siltation of watercourses and have potential to enhance climate change. Due to the impacts and its pollution potential, mining activity in Brazil is legally subjected to environmental licensing. Unlicensed mining operations or operations that not abide to the terms of an obtained license are taken as environmental crimes in the country. This work reports a case analyzed in the Forensic Institute of the Brazilian Federal District Civil Police. The case consisted of detecting illegal aspects of sand exploitation from a licensed mine in Federal District, nearby Brasilia city. The fieldwork covered an area of roughly 6 ha, which was surveyed with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) (PHANTOM 3 ADVANCED). The overflight with UAV took about 20 min, with maximum flight height of 100 m. 592 UAV georeferenced images were obtained and processed in a photogrammetric software (AGISOFT PHOTOSCAN 1.1.4), which generated a mosaic of geo-referenced images and a 3D model in less than six working hours. The 3D model was analyzed in a forensic software for accurate modeling and volumetric analysis. (MAPTEK I-SITE FORENSIC 2.2). To ensure the 3D model was a true representation of the mine site, coordinates of ten control points and reference measures were taken during fieldwork and compared to respective spatial data in the model. Finally, these spatial data were used for measuring mining area, excavation depth and volume of exploited sand. Results showed that mine holder had not complied with some terms and conditions stated in the granted license, such as sand exploration beyond authorized extension, depth and volume. Easiness, the accuracy and expedition of procedures used in this case highlight the employment of UAV imagery and computational photogrammetry as efficient tools for outdoor forensic exams, especially on environmental issues.

Keywords: computational photogrammetry, environmental monitoring, mining, UAV

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Authors: Gilberto Goracci, Fabio Curti

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This work presents a robust, light, and inexpensive algorithm to perform autonomous orbit determination using onboard magnetometer data in real-time. Magnetometers are low-cost and reliable sensors typically available on a spacecraft for attitude determination purposes, thus representing an interesting choice to perform real-time orbit determination without the need to add additional sensors to the spacecraft itself. Magnetic field measurements can be exploited by Extended/Unscented Kalman Filters (EKF/UKF) for orbit determination purposes to make up for GPS outages, yielding errors of a few kilometers and tens of meters per second in the position and velocity of a spacecraft, respectively. While this level of accuracy shows that Kalman filtering represents a solid baseline for autonomous orbit determination, it is not enough to provide a reliable state estimation in the absence of GPS signals. This work combines the solidity and reliability of the EKF with the versatility of a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture to further increase the precision of the state estimation. Deep learning models, in fact, can grasp nonlinear relations between the inputs, in this case, the magnetometer data and the EKF state estimations, and the targets, namely the true position, and velocity of the spacecraft. The model has been pre-trained on Sun-Synchronous orbits (SSO) up to 2126 kilometers of altitude with different initial conditions and levels of noise to cover a wide range of possible real-case scenarios. The orbits have been propagated considering J2-level dynamics, and the geomagnetic field has been modeled using the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) coefficients up to the 13th order. The training of the module can be completed offline using the expected orbit of the spacecraft to heavily reduce the onboard computational burden. Once the spacecraft is launched, the model can use the GPS signal, if available, to fine-tune the parameters on the actual orbit onboard in real-time and work autonomously during GPS outages. In this way, the provided module shows versatility, as it can be applied to any mission operating in SSO, but at the same time, the training is completed and eventually fine-tuned, on the specific orbit, increasing performances and reliability. The results provided by this study show an increase of one order of magnitude in the precision of state estimate with respect to the use of the EKF alone. Tests on simulated and real data will be shown.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, extended Kalman filter, orbit determination, magnetic field

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Authors: Mahshid Arabi

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With the rapid expansion of digital technologies and the internet, information security has become a critical priority for organizations and individuals. The widespread use of digital tools such as smartphones and internet networks facilitates the storage of vast amounts of data, but simultaneously, vulnerabilities and security threats have significantly increased. The aim of this study is to examine and analyze modern methods of information security management and to develop a comprehensive model to counteract threats and information misuse. This study employs a mixed-methods approach, including both qualitative and quantitative analyses. Initially, a systematic review of previous articles and research in the field of information security was conducted. Then, using the Delphi method, interviews with 30 information security experts were conducted to gather their insights on security challenges and solutions. Based on the results of these interviews, a comprehensive model for information security management was developed. The proposed model includes advanced encryption techniques, machine learning-based intrusion detection systems, and network security protocols. AES and RSA encryption algorithms were used for data protection, and machine learning models such as Random Forest and Neural Networks were utilized for intrusion detection. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS software. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, T-Test and ANOVA statistical tests were employed, and results were measured using accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity indicators of the models. Additionally, multiple regression analysis was conducted to examine the impact of various variables on information security. The findings of this study indicate that the comprehensive proposed model reduced cyber-attacks by an average of 85%. Statistical analysis showed that the combined use of encryption techniques and intrusion detection systems significantly improves information security. Based on the obtained results, it is recommended that organizations continuously update their information security systems and use a combination of multiple security methods to protect their data. Additionally, educating employees and raising public awareness about information security can serve as an effective tool in reducing security risks. This research demonstrates that effective and up-to-date information security management requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach, including the development and implementation of advanced techniques and continuous training of human resources.

Keywords: data protection, digital technologies, information security, modern management

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Authors: Naohiro Nakamura, Takuya Kinoshita, Hiroshi Fukuyama

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The 2011 off The Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake caused considerable damage to wide areas of eastern Japan. A large number of earthquake observation records were obtained at various places. To design more earthquake-resistant buildings and improve earthquake disaster prevention, it is necessary to utilize these data to analyze and evaluate the behavior of a building during an earthquake. This paper presents an earthquake response simulation analysis (hereafter a seismic response analysis) that was conducted using data recorded during the main earthquake (hereafter the main shock) as well as the earthquakes before and after it. The data were obtained at a high-rise steel-reinforced concrete (SRC) building in the bay area of Tokyo. We first give an overview of the building, along with the characteristics of the earthquake motion and the building during the main shock. The data indicate that there was a change in the natural period before and after the earthquake. Next, we present the results of our seismic response analysis. First, the analysis model and conditions are shown, and then, the analysis result is compared with the observational records. Using the analysis result, we then study the effect of soil-structure interaction on the response of the building. By identifying the characteristics of the building during the earthquake (i.e., the 1st natural period and the 1st damping ratio) by the Auto-Regressive eXogenous (ARX) model, we compare the analysis result with the observational records so as to evaluate the accuracy of the response analysis. In this study, a lumped-mass system SR model was used to conduct a seismic response analysis using observational data as input waves. The main results of this study are as follows: 1) The observational records of the 3/11 main shock put it between a level 1 and level 2 earthquake. The result of the ground response analysis showed that the maximum shear strain in the ground was about 0.1% and that the possibility of liquefaction occurring was low. 2) During the 3/11 main shock, the observed wave showed that the eigenperiod of the building became longer; this behavior could be generally reproduced in the response analysis. This prolonged eigenperiod was due to the nonlinearity of the superstructure, and the effect of the nonlinearity of the ground seems to have been small. 3) As for the 4/11 aftershock, a continuous analysis in which the subject seismic wave was input after the 3/11 main shock was input was conducted. The analyzed values generally corresponded well with the observed values. This means that the effect of the nonlinearity of the main shock was retained by the building. It is important to consider this when conducting the response evaluation. 4) The first period and the damping ratio during a vibration were evaluated by an ARX model. Our results show that the response analysis model in this study is generally good at estimating a change in the response of the building during a vibration.

Keywords: ARX model, response analysis, SRC building, the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake

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Authors: Hamza Benzerrouk, Alexander Nebylov

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In classical GNSS/INS integration designs, the loosely coupled approach uses the GNSS derived position and the velocity as the measurements vector. This design is suboptimal from the standpoint of preventing GNSSoutliers/outages. The tightly coupled GPS/INS navigation filter mixes the GNSS pseudo range and inertial measurements and obtains the vehicle navigation state as the final navigation solution. The ultra‐tightly coupled GNSS/INS design combines the I (inphase) and Q(quadrature) accumulator outputs in the GNSS receiver signal tracking loops and the INS navigation filter function intoa single Kalman filter variant (EKF, UKF, SPKF, CKF and HCKF). As mentioned, EKF and UKF are the most used nonlinear filters in the literature and are well adapted to inertial navigation state estimation when integrated with GNSS signal outputs. In this paper, it is proposed to move a step forward with more accurate filters and modern approaches called Cubature and High Degree cubature Kalman Filtering methods, on the basis of previous results solving the state estimation based on INS/GNSS integration, Cubature Kalman Filter (CKF) and High Degree Cubature Kalman Filter with (HCKF) are the references for the recent developed generalized Cubature rule based Kalman Filter (GCKF). High degree cubature rules are the kernel of the new solution for more accurate estimation with less computational complexity compared with the Gauss-Hermite Quadrature (GHQKF). Gauss-Hermite Kalman Filter GHKF which is not selected in this work because of its limited real-time implementation in high-dimensional state-spaces. In ultra tightly or a deeply coupled GNSS/INS system is dynamics EKF is used with transition matrix factorization together with GNSS block processing which is well described in the paper and assumes available the intermediary frequency IF by using a correlator samples with a rate of 500 Hz in the presented approach. GNSS (GPS+GLONASS) measurements are assumed available and modern SPKF with Cubature Kalman Filter (CKF) are compared with new versions of CKF called high order CKF based on Spherical-radial cubature rules developed at the fifth order in this work. Estimation accuracy of the high degree CKF is supposed to be comparative to GHKF, results of state estimation are then observed and discussed for different initialization parameters. Results show more accurate navigation state estimation and more robust GNSS receiver when Ultra Tightly Coupled approach applied based on High Degree Cubature Kalman Filter.

Keywords: GNSS, INS, Kalman filtering, ultra tight integration

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Authors: Sara De Pelsmaeker, Catarina Ferreira da Silva, Janne Prawit

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Recent studies show that enzymatically hydrolysed collagen is absorbed and distributed to joint tissues, where it has analgesic and active anti-inflammatory properties. Reviews of the associated relevant literature also support this theory. However, these studies are all using hydrolyzed collagen from animal hide or skin. This study looks into the effect of daily supplementation of hydrolyzed cartilage collagen (HCC), which has a different composition. A consumer study was set up using a double-blind placebo-controlled design with a control group using twice a day 0.5gr of maltodextrin and an experimental group using twice 0.5g of HCC, over a trial period of 12 weeks. A follow-up phase of 4 weeks without supplementation was taken into the experiment to investigate the ‘wash-out’ phase. As this consumer study was conducted during the lockdown periods, a specific app was designed to follow up with the participants. The app had the advantage that in this way, the motivation of the participants was enhanced and the drop-out range of participants was lower than normally seen in consumer studies. Participants were recruited via various sports and health clubs across the UK as we targeted a general population of people that considered themselves in good health. Exclusion criteria were ‘not experiencing any medical conditions’ and ‘not taking any prescribed medication’. A minimum requirement was that they regularly engaged in some level of physical activity. The participants had to log the type of activity that they conducted and the duration of the activity. Weekly, participants were providing feedback on their joint health and subjective pain using the validated pain measuring instrument Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). The weekly repoAbstract Public Health and Wellbeing Conferencerting section in the app was designed with simplicity and based on the accuracy demonstrated in previous similar studies to track subjective pain measures of participants. At the beginning of the trial, each participant indicated their baseline on joint pain. The results of this consumer study indicated that HCC significantly improved joint health and subjective pain scores compared to the placebo group. No significant differences were found between different demographic groups (age or gender). The level of activity, going from high intensive training to regular walking, did not significantly influence the effect of the HCC. The results of the wash-out phase indicated that when the participants stopped the HCC supplementation, their subjective pain scores increased again to the baseline. In conclusion, the results gave a positive indication that the daily supplementation of HCC can contribute to the overall mobility and wellbeing of a general active population

Keywords: VAS-score, food supplement, mobility, joint health

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Authors: Laura Micheli, Majd Hijazi, Mahmoud Faytarouni

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The damage reported by oil and gas industrial facilities revealed the utmost vulnerability of steel liquid storage tanks to seismic events. The failure of steel storage tanks may yield devastating and long-lasting consequences on built and natural environments, including the release of hazardous substances, uncontrolled fires, and soil contamination with hazardous materials. It is, therefore, fundamental to reliably predict the damage that steel liquid storage tanks will likely experience under future seismic hazard events. The seismic performance of steel liquid storage tanks is usually assessed using vulnerability curves obtained from the numerical simulation of a tank under different hazard scenarios. However, the computational demand of high-fidelity numerical simulation models, such as finite element models, makes the vulnerability assessment of liquid storage tanks time-consuming and often impractical. As a solution, this paper presents a surrogate model-based strategy for predicting seismic-induced damage in steel liquid storage tanks. In the proposed strategy, the surrogate model is leveraged to reduce the computational demand of time-consuming numerical simulations. To create the data set for training the surrogate model, field damage data from past earthquakes reconnaissance surveys and reports are collected. Features representative of steel liquid storage tank characteristics (e.g., diameter, height, liquid level, yielding stress) and seismic excitation parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, magnitude) are extracted from the field damage data. The collected data are then utilized to train a surrogate model that maps the relationship between tank characteristics, seismic hazard parameters, and seismic-induced damage via a data-driven surrogate model. Different types of surrogate algorithms, including naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, and random forest, are investigated, and results in terms of accuracy are reported. The model that yields the most accurate predictions is employed to predict future damage as a function of tank characteristics and seismic hazard intensity level. Results show that the proposed approach can be used to estimate the extent of damage in steel liquid storage tanks, where the use of data-driven surrogates represents a viable alternative to computationally expensive numerical simulation models.

Keywords: damage prediction , data-driven model, seismic performance, steel liquid storage tanks, surrogate model

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Authors: Shengnan Chen, Shuhua Wang

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Successful production of hydrocarbon from unconventional tight oil reserves has changed the energy landscape in North America. The oil contained within these reservoirs typically will not flow to the wellbore at economic rates without assistance from advanced horizontal well and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing. Efficient and economic development of these reserves is a priority of society, government, and industry, especially under the current low oil prices. Meanwhile, society needs technological and process innovations to enhance oil recovery while concurrently reducing environmental impacts. Recently, big data analysis and artificial intelligence become very popular, developing data-driven insights for better designs and decisions in various engineering disciplines. However, the application of data mining in petroleum engineering is still in its infancy. The objective of this research aims to apply intelligent data analysis and data-driven models to exploit unconventional oil reserves both efficiently and economically. More specifically, a comprehensive database including the reservoir geological data, reservoir geophysical data, well completion data and production data for thousands of wells is firstly established to discover the valuable insights and knowledge related to tight oil reserves development. Several data analysis methods are introduced to analysis such a huge dataset. For example, K-means clustering is used to partition all observations into clusters; principle component analysis is applied to emphasize the variation and bring out strong patterns in the dataset, making the big data easy to explore and visualize; exploratory factor analysis (EFA) is used to identify the complex interrelationships between well completion data and well production data. Different data mining techniques, such as artificial neural network, fuzzy logic, and machine learning technique are then summarized, and appropriate ones are selected to analyze the database based on the prediction accuracy, model robustness, and reproducibility. Advanced knowledge and patterned are finally recognized and integrated into a modified self-adaptive differential evolution optimization workflow to enhance the oil recovery and maximize the net present value (NPV) of the unconventional oil resources. This research will advance the knowledge in the development of unconventional oil reserves and bridge the gap between the big data and performance optimizations in these formations. The newly developed data-driven optimization workflow is a powerful approach to guide field operation, which leads to better designs, higher oil recovery and economic return of future wells in the unconventional oil reserves.

Keywords: big data, artificial intelligence, enhance oil recovery, unconventional oil reserves

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Authors: Mai Abdul Latif, Yuntian Feng

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Applied Element Method (AEM) is a method that was developed to aid in the analysis of the collapse of structures. Current available methods cannot deal with structural collapse accurately; however, AEM can simulate the behavior of a structure from an initial state of no loading until collapse of the structure. The elements in AEM are connected with sets of normal and shear springs along the edges of the elements, that represent the stresses and strains of the element in that region. The elements are rigid, and the material properties are introduced through the spring stiffness. Nonlinear dynamic analysis has been widely modelled using the finite element method for analysis of progressive collapse of structures; however, difficulties in the analysis were found at the presence of excessively deformed elements with cracking or crushing, as well as having a high computational cost, and difficulties on choosing the appropriate material models for analysis. The Applied Element method is developed and coded to significantly improve the accuracy and also reduce the computational costs of the method. The scheme works for both linear elastic, and nonlinear cases, including elasto-plastic materials. This paper will focus on elastic and elasto-plastic material behaviour, where the number of springs required for an accurate analysis is tested. A steel cantilever beam is used as the structural element for the analysis. The first modification of the method is based on the Gaussian Quadrature to distribute the springs. Usually, the springs are equally distributed along the face of the element, but it was found that using Gaussian springs, only up to 2 springs were required for perfectly elastic cases, while with equal springs at least 5 springs were required. The method runs on a Newton-Raphson iteration scheme, and quadratic convergence was obtained. The second modification is based on adapting the number of springs required depending on the elasticity of the material. After the first Newton Raphson iteration, Von Mises stress conditions were used to calculate the stresses in the springs, and the springs are classified as elastic or plastic. Then transition springs, springs located exactly between the elastic and plastic region, are interpolated between regions to strictly identify the elastic and plastic regions in the cross section. Since a rectangular cross-section was analyzed, there were two plastic regions (top and bottom), and one elastic region (middle). The results of the present study show that elasto-plastic cases require only 2 springs for the elastic region, and 2 springs for the plastic region. This showed to improve the computational cost, reducing the minimum number of springs in elasto-plastic cases to only 6 springs. All the work is done using MATLAB and the results will be compared to models of structural elements using the finite element method in ANSYS.

Keywords: applied element method, elasto-plastic, Gaussian springs, nonlinear

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Authors: Tayo P. Ogundunmade, Adedayo A. Adepoju

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Terrorist attacks in liberal democracies bring about a few pessimistic results, for example, sabotaged public support in the governments they target, disturbing the peace of a protected environment underwritten by the state, and a limitation of individuals from adding to the advancement of the country, among others. Hence, seeking for techniques to understand the different factors involved in terrorism and how to deal with those factors in order to completely stop or reduce terrorist activities is the topmost priority of the government in every country. This research aim is to develop an efficient deep learning-based predictive model for the prediction of future terrorist activities in Nigeria, addressing low-quality prediction accuracy problems associated with the existing solution methods. The proposed predictive AI-based model as a counterterrorism tool will be useful by governments and law enforcement agencies to protect the lives of individuals in society and to improve the quality of life in general. A Heterogeneous Bayesian Neural Network (HETBNN) model was derived with Gaussian error normal distribution. Three primary transfer functions (HOTTFs), as well as two derived transfer functions (HETTFs) arising from the convolution of the HOTTFs, are namely; Symmetric Saturated Linear transfer function (SATLINS ), Hyperbolic Tangent transfer function (TANH), Hyperbolic Tangent sigmoid transfer function (TANSIG), Symmetric Saturated Linear and Hyperbolic Tangent transfer function (SATLINS-TANH) and Symmetric Saturated Linear and Hyperbolic Tangent Sigmoid transfer function (SATLINS-TANSIG). Data on the Terrorist activities in Nigeria gathered through questionnaires for the purpose of this study were used. Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Test Error are the forecast prediction criteria. The results showed that the HETFs performed better in terms of prediction and factors associated with terrorist activities in Nigeria were determined. The proposed predictive deep learning-based model will be useful to governments and law enforcement agencies as an effective counterterrorism mechanism to understand the parameters of terrorism and to design strategies to deal with terrorism before an incident actually happens and potentially causes the loss of precious lives. The proposed predictive AI-based model will reduce the chances of terrorist activities and is particularly helpful for security agencies to predict future terrorist activities.

Keywords: activation functions, Bayesian neural network, mean square error, test error, terrorism

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Authors: Abdolrasoul Daneshjoo

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Soccer is a game which draws more attention in different countries especially in Brazil. Kicking among different skills in soccer and soccer players is an excellent role for the success and preference of a team. The way of point gaining in this game is passing the ball over the goal lines which are gained by shoot skill in attack time and or during the penalty kicks.Regarding the above assumption, identifying the effective factors in instep kicking in different distances shoot with maximum force and high accuracy or pass and penalty kick, may assist the coaches and players in raising qualitative level of performing the skill.The aim of the present study was to study of a few kinematical parameters in instep kicking from 5 and 7 meter distance among the male and female elite soccer players.24 right dominant lower limb subjects (12 males and 12 females) among Tehran elite soccer players with average and the standard deviation (22.5 ± 1.5) & (22.08± 1.31) years, height of (179.5 ± 5.81) & (164.3 ± 4.09) cm, weight of (69.66 ± 4.09) & (53.16 ± 3.51) kg, %BMI (21.06 ± .731) & (19.67 ± .709), having playing history of (4 ± .73) & (3.08 ± .66) years respectively participated in this study. They had at least two years of continuous playing experience in Tehran soccer league.For sampling player's kick; Kinemetrix Motion analysis with three cameras with 1000 Hz was used. Five reflective markers were placed laterally on the kicking leg over anatomical points (the iliac crest, major trochanter, lateral epicondyle of femur, lateral malleolus, and lateral aspect of distal head of the fifth metatarsus). Instep kick was filmed, with one step approach and 30 to 45 degrees angle from stationary ball. Three kicks were filmed, one kick selected for further analyses. Using Kinemetrix 3D motion analysis software, the position of the markers was analyzed. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the mean and standard deviation, while the analysis of variance, and independent t-test (P < 0.05) were used to compare the kinematic parameters between two genders.Among the evaluated parameters, the knee acceleration, the thigh angular velocity, the angle of knee proportionately showed significant relationship with consequence of kick. While company performance on 5m in 2 genders, significant differences were observed in internal – external displacement of toe, ankle, hip and the velocity of toe, ankle and the acceleration of toe and the angular velocity of pelvic, thigh and before time contact . Significant differences showed the internal – external displacement of toe, the ankle, the knee and the hip, the iliac crest and the velocity of toe, the ankle and acceleration of ankle and angular velocity of the pelvic and the knee.

Keywords: biomechanics, kinematics, instep kicking, soccer

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Authors: Alexander Buhr, Klaus Ehrenfried

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Trackside induced airflow velocities, also known as slipstream velocities, are an important criterion for the design of high-speed trains. The maximum permitted values are given by the Technical Specifications for Interoperability (TSI) and have to be checked in the approval process. For train manufactures it is of great interest to know in advance, how new train geometries would perform in TSI tests. The Reynolds number in moving model experiments is lower compared to full-scale. Especially the limited model length leads to a thinner boundary layer at the rear end. The hypothesis is that the boundary layer rolls up to characteristic flow structures in the train wake, in which the maximum flow velocities can be observed. The idea is to enlarge the boundary layer using roughness elements at the train model head so that the ratio between the boundary layer thickness and the car width at the rear end is comparable to a full-scale train. This may lead to similar flow structures in the wake and better prediction accuracy for TSI tests. In this case, the design of the roughness elements is limited by the moving model rig. Small rectangular roughness shapes are used to get a sufficient effect on the boundary layer, while the elements are robust enough to withstand the high accelerating and decelerating forces during the test runs. For this investigation, High-Speed Particle Image Velocimetry (HS-PIV) measurements on an ICE3 train model have been realized in the moving model rig of the DLR in Göttingen, the so called tunnel simulation facility Göttingen (TSG). The flow velocities within the boundary layer are analysed in a plain parallel to the ground. The height of the plane corresponds to a test position in the EN standard (TSI). Three different shapes of roughness elements are tested. The boundary layer thickness and displacement thickness as well as the momentum thickness and the form factor are calculated along the train model. Conditional sampling is used to analyse the size and dynamics of the flow structures at the time of maximum velocity in the train wake behind the train. As expected, larger roughness elements increase the boundary layer thickness and lead to larger flow velocities in the boundary layer and in the wake flow structures. The boundary layer thickness, displacement thickness and momentum thickness are increased by using larger roughness especially when applied in the height close to the measuring plane. The roughness elements also cause high fluctuations in the form factors of the boundary layer. Behind the roughness elements, the form factors rapidly are approaching toward constant values. This indicates that the boundary layer, while growing slowly along the second half of the train model, has reached a state of equilibrium.

Keywords: boundary layer, high-speed PIV, ICE3, moving train model, roughness elements

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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In the dynamic landscape of project management, scope changes are an inevitable reality that can significantly impact project performance. These changes, whether initiated by stakeholders, external factors, or internal project dynamics, can lead to cost overruns and schedule delays. Accurately predicting the consequences of these changes is crucial for effective project control and informed decision-making. This study aims to develop predictive models to estimate the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule using machine learning techniques. The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing detailed information on project tasks, including the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), task type, productivity rate, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, task dependencies, scope change magnitude, and scope change timing. Multiple machine learning models are developed and evaluated to predict the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. These models include Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost. The dataset is split into training and testing sets, and the models are trained using the preprocessed data. Cross-validation techniques are employed to assess the robustness and generalization ability of the models. The performance of the models is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-squared. Residual plots are generated to assess the goodness of fit and identify any patterns or outliers. Hyperparameter tuning is performed to optimize the XGBoost model and improve its predictive accuracy. The feature importance analysis reveals the relative significance of different project attributes in predicting the impact on cost and schedule. Key factors such as productivity rate, scope change magnitude, task dependencies, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, and specific WBS elements are identified as influential predictors. The study highlights the importance of considering both cost and schedule implications when managing scope changes. The developed predictive models provide project managers with a data-driven tool to proactively assess the potential impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. By leveraging these insights, project managers can make informed decisions, optimize resource allocation, and develop effective mitigation strategies. The findings of this research contribute to improved project planning, risk management, and overall project success.

Keywords: cost impact, machine learning, predictive modeling, schedule impact, scope changes

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Authors: E. Salem

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Combustion has been used for a long time as a means of energy extraction. However, in recent years, there has been a further increase in air pollution, through pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, acid etc. In order to solve this problem, there is a need to reduce carbon and nitrogen oxides through learn burning modifying combustors and fuel dilution. A numerical investigation has been done to investigate the effectiveness of several reduced mechanisms in terms of computational time and accuracy, for the combustion of the hydrocarbons/air or diluted with hydrogen in a micro combustor. The simulations were carried out using the ANSYS Fluent 19.1. To validate the results “PREMIX and CHEMKIN” codes were used to calculate 1D premixed flame based on the temperature, composition of burned and unburned gas mixtures. Numerical calculations were carried for several hydrocarbons by changing the equivalence ratios and adding small amounts of hydrogen into the fuel blends then analyzing the flammable limit, the reduction in NOx and CO emissions, then comparing it to experimental data. By solving the conservations equations, several global reduced mechanisms (2-9-12) were obtained. These reduced mechanisms were simulated on a 2D cylindrical tube with dimensions of 40 cm in length and 2.5 cm diameter. The mesh of the model included a proper fine quad mesh, within the first 7 cm of the tube and around the walls. By developing a proper boundary layer, several simulations were performed on hydrocarbon/air blends to visualize the flame characteristics than were compared with experimental data. Once the results were within acceptable range, the geometry of the combustor was modified through changing the length, diameter, adding hydrogen by volume, and changing the equivalence ratios from lean to rich in the fuel blends, the results on flame temperature, shape, velocity and concentrations of radicals and emissions were observed. It was determined that the reduced mechanisms provided results within an acceptable range. The variation of the inlet velocity and geometry of the tube lead to an increase of the temperature and CO2 emissions, highest temperatures were obtained in lean conditions (0.5-0.9) equivalence ratio. Addition of hydrogen blends into combustor fuel blends resulted in; reduction in CO and NOx emissions, expansion of the flammable limit, under the condition of having same laminar flow, and varying equivalence ratio with hydrogen additions. The production of NO is reduced because the combustion happens in a leaner state and helps in solving environmental problems.

Keywords: combustor, equivalence-ratio, hydrogenation, premixed flames

Procedia PDF Downloads 115