Search results for: DNA evidence

Authors: Sean Vincent

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Within the academic community, there is a consensus that political parties in established liberal democracies are facing a myriad of organisational challenges as a result of falling membership, weakening links to grass-roots support and rising voter apathy. During the same period of party decline and growing public disengagement political parties have become increasingly professionalised. The professionalisation of political parties owes much to changes in technology, with television becoming the dominant medium for political communication. In recent years, however, it has become clear that a new medium of communication is becoming utilised by political parties and candidates – New Media. New Media, a term hard to define but related to internet based communication, offers a potential revolution in political communication. It can be utilised by anyone with access to the internet and its most widely used platforms of communication such as Facebook and Twitter, are free to use. The advent of Web 2.0 has dramatically changed what can be done with the Internet. Websites now allow candidates at the constituency level to fundraise, organise and set out personalised policies. Social media allows them to communicate with supporters and potential voters practically cost-free. As such candidate dependency on the national party for resources and image now lies open to debate. Arguing that greater candidate independence may be a natural next step in light of the contemporary challenges faced by parties, this paper examines how New Media is being used by candidates at the constituency level to increase their personal vote. The paper will present findings from research carried out during two elections – the Japanese Lower House election of 2014 and the UK general election of 2015. During these elections a sample of candidates, totalling 150 candidates, from the three biggest parties in each country were selected and their new media output, specifically candidate websites, Twitter and Facebook output subjected to content analysis. The analysis examines how candidates are using new media to both become more functionally, through fundraising and volunteer mobilisation and politically, through the promotion of personal/local policies, independent from the national party. In order to validate the results of content analysis this paper will also present evidence from interviews carried out with 17 candidates that stood in the 2014 Japanese Lower House election or 2015 UK general election. With a combination of statistical analysis and interviews, several conclusions can be made about the use of New Media at constituency level. The findings show not just a clear difference in the way candidates from each country are using New Media but also differences within countries based upon the particular circumstances of each constituency. While it has not yet replaced traditional methods of fundraising and activist mobilisation, New Media is also becoming increasingly important in campaign organisation and the general consensus amongst candidates is that its importance will continue to grow along as politics in both countries becomes more diffuse.

Keywords: political campaigns, elections, new media, political communication

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Authors: Ece Kaya

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Urban waterfront re-development is a well-established phenomenon internationally since 1960s. In cities throughout the world, old industrial waterfront land is being redeveloped into luxury housing, offices, tourist attractions, cultural amenities and shopping centres. These developments are intended to attract high-income residents, tourists and investors to the city. As urban waterfronts are iconic places for the cities and catalyst for further development. They are often referred as flagship project. In Sydney, the re-development of industrial waterfront has been exposed since 1980s with Darling Harbour Project. Darling Harbour waterfront used to be the main arrival and landing place for commercial and industrial shipping until 1970s. Its urban development has continued since the establishment of the city. It was developed as a major industrial and goods-handling precinct in 1812. This use was continued by the mid-1970s. After becoming a redundant industrial waterfront, the area was ripe for re-development in 1984. Darling Harbour is now one of the world’s fascinating waterfront leisure and entertainment destinations and its transformation has been considered as a success story. It is a contradictory statement for this paper. Data collection was carried out using an extensive archival document analysis. The data was obtained from Australian Institute of Architects, City of Sydney Council Archive, Parramatta Heritage Office, Historic Houses Trust, National Trust, and University of Sydney libraries, State Archive, State Library and Sydney Harbour Foreshore Authority Archives. Public documents, primarily newspaper articles and design plans, were analysed to identify possible differences in motives and to determine the process of implementation of the waterfront redevelopments. It was also important to obtain historical photographs and descriptions to understand how the waterfront had been altered. Sites maps in different time periods have been identified to understand what kind of changes happened on the urban landscape and how the developments affected areas. Newspaper articles and editorials have been examined in order to discover what aspects of the projects reflected the history and heritage. The thematic analysis of the archival data helped determine Darling Harbour is a historically important place as it had represented a focal point for Sydney's industrial growth and the cradle of industrial development in European Australia. It has been found that the development area was designated in order to be transformed to a place for tourist, education, recreational, entertainment, cultural and commercial activities and as a result little evidence remained of its industrial past. This paper aims to discuss the industrial significance of Darling Harbour and to explain the changes on its industrial landscape. What is absent now is the layer of its history that creates the layers of meaning to the place so its historic industrial identity is effectively lost.

Keywords: historical significance, industrial heritage, industrial waterfront, re-development

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Authors: Volodymyr Rombakh

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This article was written to substantiate the possibility of detecting the precursors of catastrophic destruction of a structure or device and stopping operation before it. Damage to solids results from breaking the bond between atoms, which requires energy. Modern theories of strength and fracture assume that such energy is due to stress. However, in a letter to W. Thomson (Lord Kelvin) dated December 18, 1856, J.C. Maxwell provided evidence that elastic energy cannot destroy solids. He proposed an equation for estimating a deformable body's energy, equal to the sum of two energies. Due to symmetrical compression, the first term does not change, but the second term is distortion without compression. Both types of energy are represented in the equation as a quadratic function of strain, but Maxwell repeatedly wrote that it is not stress but strain. Furthermore, he notes that the nature of the energy causing the distortion is unknown to him. An article devoted to theories of elasticity was published in 1850. Maxwell tried to express mechanical properties with the help of optics, which became possible only after the creation of quantum mechanics. However, Maxwell's work on elasticity is not cited in the theories of strength and fracture. The authors of these theories and their associates are still trying to describe the phenomena they observe based on classical mechanics. The study of Faraday's experiments, Maxwell's and Rutherford's ideas, made it possible to discover a previously unknown area of electromagnetic radiation. The properties of photons emitted in this reaction are fundamentally different from those of photons emitted in nuclear reactions and are caused by the transition of electrons in an atom. The photons released during all processes in the universe, including from plants and organs in natural conditions; their penetrating power in metal is millions of times greater than that of one of the gamma rays. However, they are not non-invasive. This apparent contradiction is because the chaotic motion of protons is accompanied by the chaotic radiation of photons in time and space. Such photons are not coherent. The energy of a solitary photon is insufficient to break the bond between atoms, one of the stages of which is ionization. The photographs registered the rail deformation by 113 cars, while the Gaiger Counter did not. The author's studies show that the cause of damage to a solid is the breakage of bonds between a finite number of atoms due to the stimulated emission of metastable atoms. The guarantee of the reliability of the structure is the ratio of the energy dissipation rate to the energy accumulation rate, but not the strength, which is not a physical parameter since it cannot be measured or calculated. The possibility of continuous control of this ratio is due to the spontaneous emission of photons by metastable atoms. The article presents calculation examples of the destruction of energy and photographs due to the action of photons emitted during the atomic-proton reaction.

Keywords: atomic-proton reaction, precursors of man-made disasters, strain, stress

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Authors: Hamed Delrobai Ghoochan Atigh

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Androgenic alopecia (AGA) is a common form of hair loss, impacting approximately 50% of females, which leads to reduced self-esteem and quality of life. It causes progressive follicular miniaturization in genetically predisposed individuals. Mesotherapy -- a minimally invasive procedure, topical 2% minoxidil, and oral finasteride have emerged as popular treatment options in the realm of cosmetics. However, the efficacy of mesotherapy compared to other options remains unclear. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of mesotherapy when it is added to topical 2% minoxidil treatment on female androgenic alopecia. Mesotherapy, also known as intradermotherapy, is a technique that entails administering multiple intradermal injections of a carefully composed mixture of compounds in low doses, applied at various points in close proximity to or directly over the affected areas. This study involves a randomized controlled trial with 100 female participants diagnosed with androgenic alopecia. The subjects were randomly assigned to two groups: Group A used topical 2% minoxidil twice daily and took Finastride oral tablet. For Group B, 10 mesotherapy sessions were added to the prior treatment. The injections were administered every week in the first month of treatment, every two weeks in the second month, and after that the injections were applied monthly for four consecutive months. The response assessment was made at baseline, the 4th session, and finally after 6 months when the treatment was complete. Clinical photographs, 7-point Likert scale patient self-evaluation, and 7-point Likert scale assessment tool were used to measure the effectiveness of the treatment. During this evaluation, a significant and visible improvement in hair density and thickness was observed. The study demonstrated a significant increase in treatment efficacy in Group B compared to Group A post-treatment, with no adverse effects. Based on the findings, it appears that mesotherapy offers a significant improvement in female AGA over minoxidil. Hair loss was stopped in Group B after one month and improvement in density and thickness of hair was observed after the third month. The findings from this study provide valuable insights into the efficacy of mesotherapy in treating female androgenic alopecia. Our evaluation offers a detailed assessment of hair growth parameters, enabling a better understanding of the treatments' effectiveness. The potential of this promising technique is significantly enhanced when carried out in a medical facility, guided by appropriate indications and skillful execution. An interesting observation in our study is that in areas where the hair had turned grey, the newly regrown hair does not retain its original grey color; instead, it becomes darker. The results contribute to evidence-based decision-making in dermatological practice and offer different insights into the treatment of female pattern hair loss.

Keywords: androgenic alopecia, female hair loss, mesotherapy, topical 2% minoxidil

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Authors: A. Askerov, Y. Teterin, P. Yartcev, S. Novikov

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Introduction: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a socially significant problem for public health and continues to be one of the most common causes of hospitalization of patients with pathology of the gastrointestinal tract. It is characterized by high mortality rates, which reaches 62-65% in infected pancreatic necrosis. Aims & Methods: The study group included 63 patients who underwent transluminal drainage (TLD) fluid collection (FC). All patients were performed transabdominal ultrasound, computer tomography of the abdominal cavity and retroperitoneal organs and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) of the pancreatobiliary zone. The EUS was used as a final diagnostic method to determine the characteristics of FC. The indications for TLD were: the distance between the wall of the hollow organ and the FC was not more than 1 cm, the absence of large vessels on the puncture trajectory (more than 3 mm), and the size of the formation was more than 5 cm. When a homogeneous cavity with clear, even contours was detected, a plastic stent with rounded ends (“double pig tail”) was installed. The indication for the installation of a fully covered self-expanding stent was the detection of nonhomogeneous anechoic FC with hyperechoic inclusions and cloudy purulent contents. In patients with necrotic forms after drainage of the purulent cavity, a cystonasal drainage with a diameter of 7Fr was installed in its lumen under X-ray control to sanitize the cavity with a 0.05% aqueous solution of chlorhexidine. Endoscopic necrectomy was performed every 24-48 hours. The plastic stent was removed in 6 month, the fully covered self-expanding stent - in 1 month after the patient was discharged from the hospital. Results: Endoscopic TLD was performed in 63 patients. The FC corresponding to interstitial edematous pancreatitis was detected in 39 (62%) patients who underwent TLD with the installation of a plastic stent with rounded ends. In 24 (38%) patients with necrotic forms of FC, a fully covered self-expanding stent was placed. Communication with the ductal system of the pancreas was found in 5 (7.9%) patients. They underwent pancreaticoduodenal stenting. A complicated postoperative period was noted in 4 (6.3%) cases and was manifested by bleeding from the zone of pancreatogenic destruction. In 2 (3.1%) cases, this required angiography and endovascular embolization a. gastroduodenalis, in 1 (1.6%) case, endoscopic hemostasis was performed by filling the cavity with 4 ml of Hemoblock hemostatic solution. The combination of both methods was used in 1 (1.6%) patient. There was no evidence of recurrent bleeding in these patients. Lethal outcome occurred in 4 patients (6.3%). In 3 (4.7%) patients, the cause of death was multiple organ failure, in 1 (1.6%) - severe nosocomial pneumonia that developed on the 32nd day after drainage. Conclusions: 1. EUS is not only the most important method for diagnosing FC in AP, but also allows you to determine further tactics for their intraluminal drainage.2. Endoscopic intraluminal drainage of fluid zones in 45.8% of cases is the final minimally invasive method of surgical treatment of large-focal pancreatic necrosis. Disclosure: Nothing to disclose.

Keywords: acute pancreatitis, fluid collection, endoscopy surgery, necrectomy, transluminal drainage

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Authors: Brenda Russell

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Police officers spend a great deal of time responding to domestic violence calls. Recent research has found that men and women in heterosexual and same-sex relationships are equally likely to initiate intimate partner violence IPV) and likewise susceptible to victimization, yet police training tends to focus primarily on male perpetration and female victimization. Criminal justice studies have found that male perpetrators of IPV are blamed more than female perpetrators who commit the same offense. While previous research has examined officer’s response in IPV cases with male and female heterosexual offenders, research has yet to investigate police response in same-sex relationships. This study examined officers’ decisions to arrest, perceptions of blame, perceived danger to others, disrespect, and beliefs in prosecution, guilt and sentencing. Officers in the U.S. (N = 248) were recruited using word of mouth and access to police association websites where a link to an online study was made available. Officers were provided with one of 4 experimentally manipulated scenarios depicting a male or female perpetrator (heterosexual or same-sex) in a clear domestic assault situation. Officer age, experience with IPV and IPV training were examined as possible covariates. Training in IPV was not correlated to any dependent variable of interest. Age was correlated with perpetrator arrest and blame (.14 and .16, respectively) and years of experience was correlated to arrest, offering informal advice, and mediating the incident (.14 to -.17). A 2(perpetrator gender) X 2 (victim gender) factorial design was conducted. Results revealed that officers were more likely to provide informal advice and mediate in gay male relationships, and were less likely to arrest perpetrators in same-sex relationships. When officer age and years of experience with domestic violence were statistically controlled, effects for perpetrator arrest and providing informal advice were no longer significant. Officers perceived heterosexual male perpetrators as more dangerous, blameworthy, disrespectful, and believed they would receive significantly longer sentences than all other conditions. When officer age and experience were included as covariates in the analyses perpetrator blame was no longer statistically significant. Age, experience and training in IPV were not related to perceptions of victims. Police perceived victims as more truthful and believable when the perpetrator was a male. Police also believed victims of female perpetrators were more responsible for their own victimization. Victims were more likely to be perceived as a danger to their family when the perpetrator was female. Female perpetrators in same-sex relationships and heterosexual males were considered to experience more mental illness than heterosexual female or gay male perpetrators. These results replicate previous research suggesting male perpetrators are more blameworthy and responsible for their own victimization, yet expands upon previous research by identifying potential biases in police response to IPV in same-sex relationships. This study brings to the forefront the importance of evidence-based officer training in IPV and provides insight into the need for a gender inclusive approach as well as addressing the necessity of the practical applications for police.

Keywords: domestic violence, heterosexual, intimate partner violence, officer response, police officer, same-sex

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Authors: Benedict Ofori, Kwabena Sarpong, Stephen Antwi

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Background: Medicinal plants are utilized all around the world and are becoming increasingly important economically. The WHO notes that ‘inappropriate use of traditional medicines or practices can have negative or dangerous effects and that future research is needed to ascertain the efficacy and safety of such practices and medicinal plants used by traditional medicine systems. The poor around the world have limited access to palliative care or pain relief. Pharmacologists have been focused on developing safe and effective anti-inflammatory drugs. Most of the issues related to their use have been linked to the fact that numerous traditional and herbal treatments are classified in different nations as meals or dietary supplements. As a result, there is no need for evidence of the quality, efficacy, or safety of these herbal formulations before they are marketed. The fact that access to drugs meant for pain relief is limited in low-income countries means advanced studies should be done on home drugs meant for inflammation to close the gap. Methods: The ethanolic extracts of the plant were screened for the presence of 10 phytochemicals. The Pierce BCA Protein Assay Kit was used for the determination of the protein concentration of the egg white. The rats were randomly selected and put in 6 groups. The egg white was sub-plantar injected into the right-hand paws of the rats to induce inflammation. The animals were treated with the three plant extracts obtained from the root bark, stem, and leaves of the plant. The control groups were treated with normal saline, while the standard groups were treated with standard drugs indomethacin and celecoxib. Plethysmometer was used to measure the change in paw volume of the animals over the course of the experiment. Results: The results of the phytochemical screening revealed the presence of reducing sugars and saponins. Alkaloids were present in only R.L.S (1:1:1), and phytosterols were found in R.L(1:1) and R.L.S (1:1:1). The estimated protein concentration was found to be 103.75 mg/ml. The control group had an observable increase in paw volume, which indicated that inflammation was induced during the 5 hours. The increase in paw volume for the control group peaked at the 1st hour and decreased gradually throughout the experiment, with minimal changes in the paw volumes. The 2nd and 3rd groups were treated with 20 mg/kg of indomethacin and celecoxib. The anti-inflammatory activities of indomethacin and celecoxib were calculated to be 21.4% and 4.28%, respectively. The remaining 3 groups were treated with 2 dose levels of 200mg/kg plant extracts. R.L.S, R.L, and S.R.L had anti-inflammatory activities of 22.3%, 8.2%, and 12.07%, respectively. Conclusions: Egg albumin-induced paw model in rats can be used to evaluate the anti-inflammatory activity of herbs that might have potential anti-inflammatory activity. Herbal medications have potential anti-inflammatory activities and can be used to manage various inflammatory conditions if their efficacy and side effects are well studied. The three extracts all possessed anti-inflammatory activity, with R.L.S having the highest anti-inflammatory activity.

Keywords: inflammation, capparis erythrocarpos, anti-inflammatory activity, herbal medicine, paw volume, egg albumin

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Authors: Emmanuel O. Ezim, Idowu A. Olayinka, Michael Oladunjoye, Izuchukwu I. Obiadi

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Monitoring of reservoir properties prior to well placements and production is a requirement for optimisation and efficient oil and gas production. This is usually done using well log analyses and 3-D seismic, which are often prone to errors. However, 4-D (Time-lapse) seismic, incorporating numerous 3-D seismic surveys of the same field with the same acquisition parameters, which portrays the transient changes in the reservoir due to production effects over time, could be utilised because it generates better resolution. There is, however dearth of information on the applicability of this approach in the Niger Delta. This study was therefore designed to apply 4-D seismic, well-log and geologic data in monitoring of reservoirs in the EK field of the Niger Delta. It aimed at locating bypassed accumulations and ensuring effective reservoir management. The Field (EK) covers an area of about 1200km2 belonging to the early (18ma) Miocene. Data covering two 4-D vintages acquired over a fifteen-year interval were obtained from oil companies operating in the field. The data were analysed to determine the seismic structures, horizons, Well-to-Seismic Tie (WST), and wavelets. Well, logs and production history data from fifteen selected wells were also collected from the Oil companies. Formation evaluation, petrophysical analysis and inversion alongside geological data were undertaken using Petrel, Shell-nDi, Techlog and Jason Software. Well-to-seismic tie, formation evaluation and saturation monitoring using petrophysical and geological data and software were used to find bypassed hydrocarbon prospects. The seismic vintages were interpreted, and the amounts of change in the reservoir were defined by the differences in Acoustic Impedance (AI) inversions of the base and the monitor seismic. AI rock properties were estimated from all the seismic amplitudes using controlled sparse-spike inversion. The estimated rock properties were used to produce AI maps. The structural analysis showed the dominance of NW-SE trending rollover collapsed-crest anticlines in EK with hydrocarbons trapped northwards. There were good ties in wells EK 27, 39. Analysed wavelets revealed consistent amplitude and phase for the WST; hence, a good match between the inverted impedance and the good data. Evidence of large pay thickness, ranging from 2875ms (11420 TVDSS-ft) to about 2965ms, were found around EK 39 well with good yield properties. The comparison between the base of the AI and the current monitor and the generated AI maps revealed zones of untapped hydrocarbons as well as assisted in determining fluids movement. The inverted sections through EK 27, 39 (within 3101 m - 3695 m), indicated depletion in the reservoirs. The extent of the present non-uniform gas-oil contact and oil-water contact movements were from 3554 to 3575 m. The 4-D seismic approach led to better reservoir characterization, well development and the location of deeper and bypassed hydrocarbon reservoirs.

Keywords: reservoir monitoring, 4-D seismic, well placements, petrophysical analysis, Niger delta basin

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Authors: Ana Alvarenga De Castro

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Food sovereignty has been brought by the international peasants’ movement, La Via Campesina, as a precondition to food security, speaking about the right of each nation to keep its own supply of foods respecting cultural, sustainable practices and productive diversity. The political conceptualization nowadays goes beyond saying that this term is about achieving the rights of farmers to control the food systems according to local specificities, and about equality in the access to natural resources and quality food. The current feminization of agroecosystems and of food insecurity identified by researchers and recognized by international agencies like the UN and FAO has enhanced the feminist discourse into the food sovereignty movement, considering the historical inequalities that place women farmers in subaltern positions inside the families and rural communities. The current tendency in many rural areas of more women taking responsibility for food production and still facing the lack of access to natural resources meets particular aspects in Latin America due to the global economic logic which places the Global South in the position of raw material supplier for the industrialized North, combined with regional characteristics. In this context, Latin American countries play the role of commodities exporters in the international labor division, including among exported items grains, soybean paste, and ores, to the expense of local food chains which provide domestic quality food supply under more sustainable practices. The connections between gender inequalities and global territorial inequalities related to the access and control of food and natural resources are pointed out by feminist political ecology - FPE - authors, and are linked in this article to the potentialities and limitations of women farmers to reproduce diversified agroecosystems in the tropical environments. The work brings the importance of local practices held by women farmers which are crucial to maintaining sustainable agricultural systems and their results on seeds, soil, biodiversity and water conservation. This work presents an analysis of documents, releases, videos and other publicized experiences launched by some peasants’ organizations in Latin America which evidence the different technical and political answers that meet food sovereignty from peasants’ groups that are attributed to women farmers. They are associated with articles presenting the empirical analysis of women farmers' practices in Latin America. The combination drove to discuss the benefits of peasants' conceptions about food systems and their connections with local realities and the gender issues linked to the food sovereignty conceptualization. Conclusion meets that reality on the field cannot reach food sovereignty's ideal homogeneously and that agricultural sustainable practices are dependent on rights' achievement and social inequalities' eradication.

Keywords: food sovereignty, gender, diversified agricultural systems, access to natural resources

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Authors: Safia Hasan Varachhia, Neela Badrie, Marsha Singh

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Genetic modification of food is an innovative technology that offers a host of benefits and advantages to consumers. Consumer attitudes towards GM food and GM technologies can be identified a major determinant in conditioning market force and encouraging policy makers and regulators to recognize the significance of consumer influence on the market. This study aimed to investigate and evaluate the extent of consumer awareness, knowledge, perception and acceptance of GM foods and its associated health risks and benefit in Trinidad and Tobago, West Indies. The specific objectives of this study were to (determine consumer awareness to GM foods, ascertain their perspectives on health and safety risks and ethical issues associated with GM foods and determine whether labeling of GM foods and ingredients will influence consumers’ willingness to purchase GM foods. A survey comprising of a questionnaire consisting of 40 questions, both open-ended and close-ended was administered to 240 shoppers in small, medium and large-scale supermarkets throughout Trinidad between April-May, 2015 using convenience sampling. This survey investigated consumer awareness, knowledge, perception and acceptance of GM foods and its associated health risks/benefits. The data was analyzed using SPSS 19.0 and Minitab 16.0. One-way ANOVA investigated the effects categories of supermarkets and knowledge scores on shoppers’ awareness, knowledge, perception and acceptance of GM foods. Linear Regression tested whether demographic variables (category of supermarket, age of consumer, level of were useful predictors of consumer’s knowledge of GM foods). More than half of respondents (64.3%) were aware of GM foods and GM technologies, 28.3% of consumers indicated the presence of GM foods in local supermarkets and 47.1% claimed to be knowledgeable of GM foods. Furthermore, significant associations (P < 0.05) were observed between demographic variables (age, income, and education), and consumer knowledge of GM foods. Also, significant differences (P < 0.05) were observed between demographic variables (education, gender, and income) and consumer knowledge of GM foods. In addition, age, education, gender and income (P < 0.05) were useful predictors of consumer knowledge of GM foods. There was a contradiction as whilst 35% of consumers considered GM foods safe for consumption, 70% of consumers were wary of the unknown health risks of GM foods. About two-thirds of respondents (67.5%) considered the creation of GM foods morally wrong and unethical. Regarding GM food labeling preferences, 88% of consumers preferred mandatory labeling of GM foods and 67% of consumers specified that any food product containing a trace of GM food ingredients required mandatory GM labeling. Also, despite the declaration of GM food ingredients on food labels and the reassurance of its safety for consumption by food safety and regulatory institutions, the majority of consumers (76.1%) still preferred conventionally produced foods over GM foods. The study revealed the need to inform shoppers of the presence of GM foods and technologies, present the scientific evidence as to the benefits and risks and the need for a policy on labeling so that informed choices could be taken.

Keywords: genetically modified foods, income, labeling consumer awareness, ingredients, morality and ethics, policy

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Authors: Avi Shrivastava

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In 2021, two heart-wrenching scenes, shown live on television screens across countries, painted a grim picture of refugees. One of them was of people clinging onto an airplane's wings in their desperate attempt to flee war-torn Afghanistan. They ultimately fell to their death. The other scene was the U.S. government authorities separating children from their parents or guardians to deter migrants/refugees from coming to the U.S. These events show the desperation refugees feel when they are trying to leave their homes in disaster zones. However, data paints a grave picture of the current refugee situation. It also indicates that a bleak future lies ahead for the refugees across the globe. Data and information are the two threads that intertwine to weave the shimmery fabric of modern society. Data and information are often used interchangeably, but they differ considerably. For example, information analysis reveals rationale, and logic, while data analysis, on the other hand, reveals a pattern. Moreover, patterns revealed by data can enable us to create the necessary tools to combat huge problems on our hands. Data analysis paints a clear picture so that the decision-making process becomes simple. Geopolitical and economic data can be used to predict future refugee hotspots. Accurately predicting the next refugee hotspots will allow governments and relief agencies to prepare better for future refugee crises. The refugee crisis does not have binary answers. Given the emotionally wrenching nature of the ground realities, experts often shy away from realistically stating things as they are. This hesitancy can cost lives. When decisions are based solely on data, emotions can be removed from the decision-making process. Data also presents irrefutable evidence and tells whether there is a solution or not. Moreover, it also responds to a nonbinary crisis with a binary answer. Because of all that, it becomes easier to tackle a problem. Data science and A.I. can predict future refugee crises. With the recent explosion of data due to the rise of social media platforms, data and insight into data has solved many social and political problems. Data science can also help solve many issues refugees face while staying in refugee camps or adopted countries. This paper looks into various ways data science can help solve refugee problems. A.I.-based chatbots can help refugees seek legal help to find asylum in the country they want to settle in. These chatbots can help them find a marketplace where they can find help from the people willing to help. Data science and technology can also help solve refugees' many problems, including food, shelter, employment, security, and assimilation. The refugee problem seems to be one of the most challenging for social and political reasons. Data science and machine learning can help prevent the refugee crisis and solve or alleviate some of the problems that refugees face in their journey to a better life. With the explosion of data in the last decade, data science has made it possible to solve many geopolitical and social issues.

Keywords: refugee crisis, artificial intelligence, data science, refugee camps, Afghanistan, Ukraine

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Authors: Fayez Hanna, Viet Tran

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A 20 years old lady- primigravida 6 weeks pregnant with unremarkable past history, presented to the emergency department at the Royal Hobart Hospital, Tasmania, Australia, with hyperemesis gravidarum associated with, dehydration and complicated with hematemesis and chest pain resistant. Accordingly, we conducted laboratory investigations which revealed: FBC: WBC 23.9, unremarkable U&E, LFT, lipase and her VBG showed a pH 7.4, pCo2 36.7, cK+ 3.2, cNa+ 142. The decision was made to do a chest X-ray (CXR) after explaining the risks/benefit of performing radiographic investigations during pregnancy and considering the patient's plan for the termination of the pregnancy as she was not ready for motherhood for shared decision-making and consent to look for pneumoperitoneum to suggest perforated viscus that might cause the hematemesis. However, the CXR showed pneumomediastinum but no evidence of pneumoperitoneum or pneumothorax. Consequently, a decision was made to proceed with CT oesophagography with imaging pre and post oral contrast administration to identify a potential oesophageal tear since it could not be excluded using a plain film of the CXR. The CT oesophagography could not find a leak for the administered oral contrast and thus, no oesophageal tear could be confirmed but could not exclude the Mallory-Weiss tear (lower oesophageal tear). Further, the CT oesophagography showed an extensive pneumomediastinum that could not be confirmed to be pulmonary in origin noting the presence of bilateral pulmonary interstitial emphysema and pneumothorax in the apex of the right lung that was small. The patient was admitted to the Emergency Department Inpatient Unit for monitoring, supportive therapy, and symptomatic management. Her hyperemesis was well controlled with ondansetron 8mg IV, metoclopramide 10mg IV, doxylamine 25mg PO, pyridoxine 25mg PO, esomeprazole 40mg IV and oxycodone 5mg PO was given for pain control and 2 litter of IV fluid. The patient was stabilized after 24 hours and discharged home on ondansetron 8mg every 8 hours whereas the patient had a plan for medical termination of pregnancy. Three weeks later, the patient represented with nausea and vomiting complicated by a frank hematemesis. Her observation chart showed HR 117- other vital signs were normal. Pathology showed WBC 14.3 with normal U&E and Hb. The patient was managed in the Emergency Department with the same previous regimen and was discharged home on same previous regimes. Five days later, she presented again with nausea, vomiting and hematemesis and was admitted under obstetrics and gynaecology for stabilization then discharged home with a plan for surgical termination of pregnancy after 3-days rather than the previously planned medical termination of pregnancy to avoid extension of potential oesophageal tear. The surgical termination and follow up period were uneventful. The case is considered rare as pneumomediastinum is a very rare complication of hyperemesis gravidarum where vomiting-induced barotrauma leads to a ruptured oesophagus and air leak into the mediastinum. However no rupture oesophagus in our case. Although the combination of pneumothorax and pneumomediastinum without oesophageal tear was reported only 8 times in the literature, but none of them was due to hyperemesis gravidarum.

Keywords: Pneumothorax, pneumomediastinum, hyperemesis gravidarum, pneumopericardium

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Authors: Fatma Refaat Ahmed, Sally Mohamed Farghaly

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Context: Intensive care unit (ICU) nurses often face pressure and constraints in their work, leading to the rationing of care when demands exceed available time and resources. Observations suggest that ICU nurses are frequently distracted from their core nursing roles by non-core tasks. This study aims to provide evidence on ICU nurses' multitasking activities and explore the association between nurses' personal and clinical characteristics and their time allocation. Research Aim: The aim of this study is to quantify the time spent by ICU nurses on multitasking activities and investigate the relationship between their personal and clinical characteristics and time allocation. Methodology: A self-observation form utilizing the "Diary" recording method was used to record the number of tasks performed by ICU nurses and the time allocated to each task category. Nurses also reported on the distractions encountered during their nursing activities. A convenience sample of 60 ICU nurses participated in the study, with each nurse observed for one nursing shift (6 hours), amounting to a total of 360 hours. The study was conducted in two ICUs within a university teaching hospital in Alexandria, Egypt. Findings: The results showed that ICU nurses completed 2,730 direct patient-related tasks and 1,037 indirect tasks during the 360-hour observation period. Nurses spent an average of 33.65 minutes on ventilator care-related tasks, 14.88 minutes on tube care-related tasks, and 10.77 minutes on inpatient care-related tasks. Additionally, nurses spent an average of 17.70 minutes on indirect care tasks per hour. The study identified correlations between nursing time and nurses' personal and clinical characteristics. Theoretical Importance: This study contributes to the existing research on ICU nurses' multitasking activities and their relationship with personal and clinical characteristics. The findings shed light on the significant time spent by ICU nurses on direct care for mechanically ventilated patients and the distractions that require attention from ICU managers. Data Collection: Data were collected using self-observation forms completed by participating ICU nurses. The forms recorded the number of tasks performed, the time allocated to each task category, and any distractions encountered during nursing activities. Analysis Procedures: The collected data were analyzed to quantify the time spent on different tasks by ICU nurses. Correlations were also examined between nursing time and nurses' personal and clinical characteristics. Question Addressed: This study addressed the question of how ICU nurses allocate their time across multitasking activities and whether there is an association between nurses' personal and clinical characteristics and time allocation. Conclusion: The findings of this study emphasize the need for a lean evaluation of ICU nurses' activities to identify and address potential gaps in patient care and distractions. Implementing lean techniques can improve efficiency, safety, clinical outcomes, and satisfaction for both patients and nurses, ultimately enhancing the quality of care and organizational performance in the ICU setting.

Keywords: motion study, ICU nurse, lean, nursing time, multitasking activities

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Authors: Manav Sabharwal, Ruda Rai Md, Candace Parker, James Ridley

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Wheat is one of the most commonly consumed grains worldwide, which contains gluten. Nowadays, gluten intake is considered to be a trigger for GRDs, including Celiac disease (CD), a common genetic disease affecting 1% of the US population, non-celiac gluten sensitivity (NCGS) and wheat allergy. NCGS is being recognized as an acquired gluten-sensitive enteropathy that is prevalent across age, ethnic and geographic groups. The cause of this entity is not fully understood, and recent studies suggest that it is more common in participants with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), with iron deficiency anemia, symptoms of fatigue, and has considerable overlap in symptoms with IBS and Crohn’s disease. However, these studies were lacking in availability of complete serologies, imaging tests and/or pan-endoscopy. We performed a prospective study of 745 adult patients who presented to an outpatient clinic for evaluation of chronic upper gastro-intestinal symptoms and subsequently underwent an upper endoscopic (EGD) examination as standard of care. Evaluation comprised of comprehensive celiac antibody panel, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) serologic markers, duodenal biopsies and Small Bowel Video Capsule Endoscopy (VCE), when available. At least 6 biopsy specimens were obtained from the duodenum and proximal jejunum during EGD, and CD3+ Intraepithelial lymphocytes (IELs) and villous architecture were evaluated by a single experienced pathologist, and VCE was performed by a single experienced gastroenterologist. Of the 745 patients undergoing EGD, 12% (93/745) patients showed elevated CD3+ IELs in the duodenal biopsies. 52% (387/745) completed a comprehensive CD panel and 7.2% (28/387) were positive for at least 1 CD antibody (Tissue transglutaminase (tTG), being the most common antibody in 65% (18/28)). Of these patients, 18% (5/28) showed increased duodenal CD3+ IELs, but 0% showed villous blunting or distortion to meet criteria for CD. Surprisingly, 43% (12/28) were positive for at 1 IBD serology (ASCA, ANCA or expanded IBD panel (LabCorp)). Of these 28 patients, 29% (8/28) underwent a SB VCE, of which 100 % (8/8) showed significant jejuno-ileal mucosal lesions diagnostic for IBD. Findings of abnormal CD antibodies (7.2%, 28/387) and increased CD3+ IELs on duodenal biopsy (12%, 93/745) were observed frequently in patients with UGI symptoms undergoing EGD in an outpatient clinic. None met criteria for CD, and a high proportion (43%, 12/28) showed evidence of overlap with IBD. This suggests a potential causal link of acquired GRDs to underlying inflammation and gut mucosal barrier disruption. Further studies to investigate a role for abnormal antigen presentation of dietary gluten to gut associated lymphoid tissue as a cause are justified. This may explain a high prevalence of GRDs in the population and correlation with IBS, IBD and other gut inflammatory disorders.

Keywords: celiac, gluten sensitive enteropathy, lymphocitic enteritis, IBS, IBD

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Authors: William Gallagher, Harriet Bothwell, Lowri Evans, Kevin Jones

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Background: Worldwide, a third of adult deaths are caused by cardiovascular disease, a high proportion occurring in the developing world. Contributing to these poor outcomes are suboptimal assessments, treatments and monitoring of the acutely unwell patient. Successful training in trauma and neonates is recognised in the developing world but there is little literature supporting adult resuscitation. As far as the authors are aware no literature has been published on resuscitation training in Uganda since 2000 when a resuscitation training officer ran sessions in neonatal and paediatric resuscitation. The aim of this project was to offer training in Basic Life Support ( BLS) to staff and healthcare students based at Villa Maria Hospital in the Kalungu District, Central Uganda. This project was undertaken as a student selected component (SSC) offered by Swindon Academy, based at the Great Western Hospital, to medical students in their fourth year of the undergraduate programme. Methods: Semi-structured, informal interviews and focus groups were conducted with different clinicians in the hospital. These interviews were designed to focus on the level of training and understanding of BLS. A training session was devised which focused on BLS (excluding the use of an automatic external defribrillator) involving pre and post-training questionnaires and clinical assessments. Three training sessions were run for different cohorts: a pilot session for 5 Ugandan medical students, a second session for a group of 8 nursing and midwifery students and finally, a third was devised for physicians. The data collected was analysed in excel. Paired T-Tests determined statistical significance between pre and post-test scores and confidence before and after the sessions. Average clinical skill assessment scores were converted to percentages based on the area of BLS being assessed. Results: 27 participants were included in the analysis. 14 received ‘small group training’ whilst 13 received’ large group training’ 88% of all participants had received some form of resuscitation training. Of these, 46% had received theory training, 27% practical training and only 15% received both. 12% had received no training. On average, all participants demonstrated a significant increase of 5.3 in self-assessed confidence (p <0.05). On average, all participants thought the session was very useful. Analysis of qualitative date from clinician interviews in ongoing but identified themes identified include rescue breaths being considered the most important aspect resuscitation and doubts of a ‘good’ outcome from resuscitation. Conclusions: The results of this small study reflect the need for regular formal training in BLS in low resource settings. The active engagement and positive opinions concerning the utility of the training are promising as well as the evidence of improvement in knowledge.

Keywords: basic life support, education, resuscitation, sub-Saharan Africa, training, Uganda

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Authors: Chettyparambil Lalchand Thejalakshmi, Sonal Sabu Edattukaran

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Hair loss is one of the main issues that contemporary society is dealing with. It can be attributable to a wide range of factors, listing from one's genetic composition and the anxiety we experience on a daily basis. Telogen effluvium [TE] is a condition that causes temporary hair loss after a stressor that might shock the body and cause the hair follicles to temporarily rest, leading to hair loss. Most frequently, women are the ones who bring up these difficulties. Extreme illness or trauma, an emotional or important life event, rapid weight loss and crash dieting, a severe scalp skin problem, a new medication, or ceasing hormone therapy are examples of potential causes. Men frequently do not notice hair thinning with time, but women with long hair may be easily identified when shedding, which can occasionally result in bias because women tend to be more concerned with aesthetics and beauty standards of the society, and approach frequently with the concerns .The woman, who formerly possessed a full head of hair, is worried about the hair loss from her scalp . There are several cases of hair loss reported every day, and Telogen effluvium is said to be the most prevalent one of them all without any hereditary risk factors. While the patient has loss in hair volume, baldness is not the result of this problem . The exponentially growing Dermatology and Aesthetic medical division has discovered that this problem is the most common and also the easiest to cure since it is feasible for these people to regrow their hair, unlike those who have scarring alopecia, in which the follicle itself is damaged and non-viable. Telogen effluvium comes in two different forms: acute and chronic. Acute TE occurs in all the age groups with a hair loss of less than three months, while chronic TE is more common in those between the ages of 30 and 60 with a hair loss of more than six months . Both kinds are prevalent throughout all age groups, regardless of the predominance. It takes between three and six months for the lost hair to come back, although this condition is readily reversed by eliminating stresses. After shedding their hair, patients frequently describe having noticeable fringes on their forehead. The current medical treatments for this condition include topical corticosteroids, systemic corticosteroids, minoxidil and finasteride, CNDPA (caffeine, niacinamide, panthenol, dimethicone, and an acrylate polymer) .Individual terminal hair growth was increased by 10% as a result of the innovative intervention CNDPA. Botulinum Toxin A, Scalp Micro Needling, Platelet Rich Plasma Therapy [PRP], and sessions with Multivitamin Mesotherapy Injections are some recently enhanced techniques with partially or completely reversible hair loss. Also, it has been shown that supplements like Nutrafol and Biotin are producing effective outcomes. There is virtually little evidence to support the claim that applying sulfur-rich ingredients to the scalp, such as onion juice, can help TE patients' hair regenerate.

Keywords: dermatology, telogen effluvium, hair loss, modern hair loass treatments

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Authors: Md. S. Sabuz

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Bangladesh, a South Asian developing country, has achieved a remarkable breakthrough in health indicators during the last four decades despite immense income inequality. This phenomenon results in the mystical exclusion of marginalized people from obtaining health care facilities. However, the persistence of exclusion of the disadvantaged remains troubling. Exclusion occurs from occupational inferiority, pay and wage differences, educational backwardness, gender disparity to urban-rural complexity and eliminate the unprivileged from seeking and availing the health services. Evidence from Bangladesh shows that many sick people prefer to die at home without securing medical services because in previous times they were not treated well, not because the medical facilities were inadequate or antediluvian but the socio-economic class allows them to receive obdurate treatment. Furthermore, government and policymakers have given enormous emphasis on infrastructural development and achieving health indicators instead of ensuring quality services and inclusiveness of people from all spheres. Therefore, it is high time to address the issues concerning this and highlight the impact of economic status on health status in a sociological perspective. The objective of this study is to consider ways of assessing and exploring the impact of economic status for instance: occupational status, pay and wage variable, on health status in the context of Bangladesh. The hypotheses are that there are a significant number of factors affecting economic status which are impactful for health status eventually, but acute income inequality is a prominent factor. Illiteracy, gender disparity, remoteness, incredibility on services, superior costs, superstition etc. are the dominant indicators behind the economic factors influencing the health status. The chosen methodologies are a qualitative and quantitative approaches to accomplish the research objectives. Secondary sources of data will be used to conduct the study. Surveys will be conducted on the people who have ever been through the health care facilities and people from the different socio-economic and cultural backgrounds. Focus group discussions will be conducted to acquire the data from different cultural and regional citizens. The findings show that 48% of people who are from disadvantaged communities have been deprived of proper health care facilities. The general reasons behind this are the higher cost of medicines and other equipment. A significant number of people are unaware of the appropriate facilities. It was found that the socio-economic variables are the main influential factors that work as the driving force for both economic dimension and health status. Above all regional variables and gender, dimensions have an enormous effect on determining the health status of an individual or community. Amidst many positive achievements for example decrease in the child mortality rate, an increase in the immunization programs of the child etc., the inclusiveness of all classes of people in health care facilities has been overshadowed in Bangladesh. However, this phenomenon along with the socio-economic and cultural phenomena significantly demolishes the quality and inclusiveness of the health status of people.

Keywords: cultural context of health, economic status, gender and health, rural health care

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Authors: Geraldine G. Granados Vazquez

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Every human being is exposed to the risk of dying; wherein some of them are more susceptible than others depending on the cause. Therefore, the cause could be the hazard to die that a group or individual has, making this irreversible damage the condition of vulnerability. Risk is a dynamic concept; which means that it depends on the environmental, social, economic and political conditions. Thus vulnerability may only be evaluated in terms of relative parameters. This research is focusing specifically on building a model that evaluate the risk or propensity of death in past urban societies in connection with the everyday life of individuals, considering that death can be a consequence of two coexisting issues: hazard and the deterioration of the resistance to destruction. One of the most important discussions in bioarchaeology refers to health and life conditions in ancient groups; the researchers are looking for more flexible models that evaluate these topics. In that way, this research proposes a theoretical-methodological model that assess the vulnerability of death in past urban groups. This model pretends to be useful to evaluate the risk of death, considering their sociohistorical context, and their intrinsic biological features. This theoretical and methodological model, propose four areas to assess vulnerability. The first three areas use statistical methods or quantitative analysis. While the last and fourth area, which corresponds to the embodiment, is based on qualitative analysis. The four areas and their techniques proposed are a) Demographic dynamics. From the distribution of age at the time of death, the analysis of mortality will be performed using life tables. From here, four aspects may be inferred: population structure, fertility, mortality-survival, and productivity-migration, b) Frailty. Selective mortality and heterogeneity in frailty can be assessed through the relationship between characteristics and the age at death. There are two indicators used in contemporary populations to evaluate stress: height and linear enamel hypoplasias. Height estimates may account for the individual’s nutrition and health history in specific groups; while enamel hypoplasias are an account of the individual’s first years of life, c) Inequality. Space reflects various sectors of society, also in ancient cities. In general terms, the spatial analysis uses measures of association to show the relationship between frail variables and space, d) Embodiment. The story of everyone leaves some evidence on the body, even in the bones. That led us to think about the dynamic individual's relations in terms of time and space; consequently, the micro analysis of persons will assess vulnerability from the everyday life, where the symbolic meaning also plays a major role. In sum, using some Mesoamerica examples, as study cases, this research demonstrates that not only the intrinsic characteristics related to the age and sex of individuals are conducive to vulnerability, but also the social and historical context that determines their state of frailty before death. An attenuating factor for past groups is that some basic aspects –such as the role they played in everyday life– escape our comprehension, and are still under discussion.

Keywords: bioarchaeology, frailty, Mesoamerica, vulnerability

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Authors: Zia Ul Haq, Saleem Muhammad, Naeem Ullah, Abbas Shah, Abdullah Shah

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Pakistan being the developing country is facing double burden of communicable and non-communicable disease. The aspect of secondary prevention of ischemic heart disease in developing countries is the dire need for public health specialists, clinicians and policy makers. There is some evidence that psychotherapeutic measures, including psychotherapy, recreation, exercise and stress management training have positive impact on secondary prevention of cardiovascular diseases but there are some contradictory findings as well. Cardiac rehabilitation program (CRP) has not yet fully implemented in Pakistan. Psychological, physical and specific health-related quality of life (HRQoL) outcomes needs assessment with respect to its practicality, effectiveness, and success. Objectives: To determine the effect of cardiac rehabilitation program (CRP) on the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measures of post MI patients compared to the usual care. Hypothesis: Post MI patients who receive the interventions (CRP) will have better HRQoL as compared to those who receive the usual cares. Methods: The randomized control trial was conducted at a Cardiac Rehabilitation Unit of Lady Reading Hospital (LRH), Peshawar. LRH is the biggest hospital of the Province Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). A total 206 participants who had recent first myocardial infarction were inducted in the study. Participants were randomly allocated into two group i.e. usual care group (UCG) and cardiac rehabilitation group (CRG) by permuted-block randomization (PBR) method. CRP was conducted in CRG in two phases. Three HRQoL outcomes i.e. general health questionnaire (GHQ), self-rated health (SRH) and MacNew quality of life after myocardial infarction (MacNew QLMI) were assessed at baseline and follow-up visits among both groups. Data were entered and analyzed by appropriate statistical test in STATA version 12. Results: A total of 195 participants were assessed at the follow-up period due to lost-to-follow-up. The mean age of the participants was 53.66 + 8.3 years. Males were dominant in both groups i.e. 150 (76.92%). Regarding educational status, majority of the participants were illiterate in both groups i.e. 128 (65.64%). Surprisingly, there were 139 (71.28%) who were non-smoker on the whole. The comorbid status was positive in 120 (61.54%) among all the patients. The SRH at follow-up among UCG and CRG was 4.06 (95% CI: 3.93, 4.19) and 2.36 (95% CI: 2.2, 2.52) respectively (p<0.001). GHQ at the follow-up of UCG and CRG was 20.91 (95% CI: 18.83, 21.97) and 7.43 (95% CI: 6.59, 8.27) respectively (p<0.001). The MacNew QLMI at follow-up of UCG and CRG was 3.82 (95% CI: 3.7, 3.94) and 5.62 (95% CI: 5.5, 5.74) respectively (p<0.001). All the HRQoL measures showed strongly significant improvement in the CRG at follow-up period. Conclusion: HRQOL improved in post MI patients after comprehensive CRP. Education of the patients and their supervision is needed when they are involved in their rehabilitation activities. It is concluded that establishing CRP in cardiac units, recruiting post-discharged MI patients and offering them CRP does not impose high costs and can result in significant improvement in HRQoL measures. Trial registration no: ACTRN12617000832370

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, cardiac rehabilitation, health-related quality of life, HRQoL, myocardial infarction, quality of life, QoL, rehabilitation, randomized control trial

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Authors: Stefanie M. Vanneste, Stijn Goeminne

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This paper studies the effect of political characteristics of 308 Flemish municipalities on their budget balance in the period 1995-2011. All local governments experience the same economic and financial setting, however some governments have high budget balances, while others have low budget balances. The aim of this paper is to explain the differences in municipal budget balances by a number of economic, socio-demographic and political variables. The economic and socio-demographic variables will be used as control variables, while the focus of this paper will be on the political variables. We test four hypotheses resulting from the literature, namely (i) the partisan hypothesis tests if left wing governments have lower budget balances, (ii) the fragmentation hypothesis stating that more fragmented governments have lower budget balances, (iii) the hypothesis regarding the power of the government, higher powered governments would resolve in higher budget balances, and (iv) the opportunistic budget cycle to test whether politicians manipulate the economic situation before elections in order to maximize their reelection possibilities and therefore have lower budget balances before elections. The contributions of our paper to the existing literature are multiple. First, we use the whole array of political variables and not just a selection of them. Second, we are dealing with a homogeneous database with the same budget and election rules, making it easier to focus on the political factors without having to control for the impact of differences in the political systems. Third, our research extends the existing literature on Flemish municipalities as this is the first dynamic research on local budget balances. We use a dynamic panel data model. Because of the two lagged dependent variables as explanatory variables, we employ the system GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) estimator. This is the best possible estimator as we are dealing with political panel data that is rather persistent. Our empirical results show that the effect of the ideological position and the power of the coalition are of less importance to explain the budget balance. The political fragmentation of the government on the other hand has a negative and significant effect on the budget balance. The more parties in a coalition the worse the budget balance is ceteris paribus. Our results also provide evidence of an opportunistic budget cycle, the budget balances are lower in pre-election years relative to the other years to try and increase the incumbents reelection possibilities. An additional finding is that the incremental effect of the budget balance is very important and should not be ignored like is being done in a lot of empirical research. The coefficients of the lagged dependent variables are always positive and very significant. This proves that the budget balance is subject to incrementalism. It is not possible to change the entire policy from one year to another so the actions taken in recent past years still have an impact on the current budget balance. Only a relatively small amount of research concerning the budget balance takes this considerable incremental effect into account. Our findings survive several robustness checks.

Keywords: budget balance, fragmentation, ideology, incrementalism, municipalities, opportunistic budget cycle, panel data, political characteristics, power, system GMM

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Authors: Kennedy Zinn, Chris Anderson

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Chronic Covid syndrome (CCS) is a condition in which individuals who test positive for Covid-19 experience persistent symptoms after recovering from the virus. CCS affects every organ system, including the central nervous system. Neurological “long-haul” symptoms last from a few weeks to several months and include brain fog, chronic fatigue, dyspnea, mood dysregulation, and headaches. Data suggest that 10-30% of individuals testing positive for Covid-19 develop CCS. Current literature indicates a decreased quality of life in persistent symptoms. CCS is a pervasive and pernicious COVID-19 sequelae. More research is needed to understand risk factors, impact, and possible interventions. Research frequently cites cytokine storming as noteworthy etiology in CCS. Cytokine storming is a malfunctional immune response and facilitates multidimensional interconnected physiological responses. The most prominent responses include abnormal blood flow, hypoxia/hypoxemia, inflammation, and endothelial damage. Neurological impairments and pathogenesis in CCS parallel that of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Both exhibit impairments in memory, cognition, mood, sustained attention, and chronic fatigue. Evidence suggests abnormal blood flow, inflammation, and hypoxemia as shared causal factors. Cytokine storming is also typical in mTBI. The shared characteristics in symptoms and etiology suggest potential parallel routes of investigation that allow for better understanding of CCS. Research on the effect of altitude in mTBI varies. Literature finds decreased rates of concussions at higher altitudes. Other studies suggest that at a higher altitude, pre-existing mTBI symptoms are exacerbated. This may mean that in CCS, the geographical location where individuals live and the location where individuals experienced acute Covid-19 symptoms may influence the severity and risk of developing CCS. It also suggests that clinics which treat mTBI patients could also provide benefits for those with CCS. This study aims to examine the relationships between altitude and CCS as a risk factor and investigate the longevity and severity of symptoms in different altitudes. Existing patient data from a concussion clinic using fMRI scans and self-reported symptoms will be used for approximately 30 individuals with CCS symptoms. The association between acclimated altitude and CCS severity will be analyzed. Patients will be classified into low, medium, and high altitude groups and compared for differences on fMRI severity scores and self-reported measures. It is anticipated that individuals living in lower altitudes are at higher risk of developing more severe neuropsychological symptoms in CCS. It is also anticipated that a treatment approach for mTBI will also be beneficial to those with CCS.

Keywords: altitude, chronic covid syndrome, concussion, covid brain, EPIC treatment, fMRI, traumatic brain injury

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Authors: Mitsuhiro Hirai, Satoshi Ajito, Nobutaka Shimizu, Noriyuki Igarashi, Hiroki Iwase, Shinichi Takata

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Sugars and polyols are known to be bioprotectants preventing such as protein denaturation and enzyme deactivation and widely used as a nontoxic additive in various industrial and medical products. The mechanism of their protective actions has been explained by specific bindings between biological components and additives, changes in solvent viscosities, and surface tension and free energy changes upon transfer of those components into additive solutions. On the other hand, some organisms having tolerances against extreme environment produce stress proteins and/or accumulate sugars in cells, which is called cryptobiosis. In particular, trehalose has been drawing attention relevant to cryptobiosis under external stress such as high or low temperature, drying, osmotic pressure, and so on. The function of cryptobiosis by trehalose has been explained relevant to the restriction of the intra-and/or-inter-molecular movement by vitrification or from the replacement of water molecule by trehalose. Previous results suggest that the structure and interaction between sugar and water are a key determinant for understanding cryptobiosis. Recently, we have shown direct evidence that the protein hydration (solvation) and structural stability against chemical and thermal denaturation significantly depend on sugar species and glycerol. Sugar and glycerol molecules tend to be preferentially or weakly excluded from the protein surface and preserved the native protein hydration shell. Due to the protective action of the protein hydration shell by those molecules, the protein structure is stabilized against chemical (guanidinium chloride) and thermal denaturation. The protective action depends on sugar species. To understand the above trend and difference in detail, it is essentially important to clarify the characteristics of solutions containing those additives. In this study, by using wide-angle X-ray scattering technique covering a wide spatial region (~3-120 Å), we have clarified structures of sugar solutions with the concentration from 5% w/w to 65% w/w. The sugars measured in the present study were monosaccharides (glucose, fructose, mannose) and disaccharides (sucrose, trehalose, maltose). Due to observed scattering data with a wide spatial resolution, we have succeeded in obtaining information on the internal structure of individual sugar molecules and on the correlation between them. Every sugar gradually shortened the average inter-molecular distance as the concentration increased. The inter-molecular interaction between sugar molecules was essentially showed an exclusive tendency for every sugar, which appeared as the presence of a repulsive correlation hole. This trend was more weakly seen for trehalose compared to other sugars. The intermolecular distance and spread of individual molecule clearly showed the dependence of sugar species. We will discuss the relation between the characteristic of sugar solution and its protective action of biological materials.

Keywords: hydration, protein, sugar, X-ray scattering

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Authors: R. P. Hewawasam, M. H. A. D. de Silva, M. A. G. Iresha

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Obesity is associated with an increased risk of developing insulin resistance. Insulin resistance often progresses to type-2 diabetes mellitus and is linked to a wide variety of other pathophysiological features including hypertension, hyperlipidemia, atherosclerosis (metabolic syndrome) and polycystic ovarian syndrome. Macrosomia is common in infants born to not only women with gestational diabetes mellitus but also non-diabetic obese women. During the past two decades, obesity in children and adolescents has risen significantly in Asian populations including Sri Lanka. There is increasing evidence to believe that infants who are born large for gestational age (LGA) are more likely to be obese in childhood. It is also established from previous studies that Asian populations have higher percentage body fat at a lower body mass index compared to Caucasians. High leptin levels in cord blood have been reported to correlate with fetal adiposity at birth. Previous studies have also shown that cord blood C-peptide and insulin levels are significantly and positively correlated with birth weight. Therefore, the objective of this preliminary study was to determine the relationship between parameters of fetal insulin resistance such as leptin, C-peptide and insulin and the birth weight of the newborn in a study population in Southern Sri Lanka. Umbilical cord blood was collected from 90 newborns and the concentration of insulin, leptin, and C-peptide were measured by ELISA technique. Birth weight, length, occipital frontal, chest, hip and calf circumferences of newborns were measured and characteristics of the mother such as age, height, weight before pregnancy and weight gain were collected. The relationship between insulin, leptin, C-peptide, and anthropometrics were assessed by Pearson’s correlation while the Mann-Whitney U test was used to assess the differences in cord blood leptin, C-peptide, and insulin levels between groups. A significant difference (p < 0.001) was observed between the insulin levels of infants born LGA (18.73 ± 0.64 µlU/ml) and AGA (13.08 ± 0.43 µlU/ml). Consistently, A significant increase in concentration (p < 0.001) was observed in C-peptide levels of infants born LGA (9.32 ± 0.77 ng/ml) compared to AGA (5.44 ± 0.19 ng/ml). Cord blood leptin concentration of LGA infants (12.67 ng/mL ± 1.62) was significantly higher (p < 0.001) compared to the AGA infants (7.10 ng/mL ± 0.97). Significant positive correlations (p < 0.05) were observed among cord leptin levels and the birth weight, pre-pregnancy maternal weight and BMI between the infants of AGA and LGA. Consistently, a significant positive correlation (p < 0.05) was observed between the birth weight and the C peptide concentration. Significantly high concentrations of leptin, C-peptide and insulin levels in the cord blood of LGA infants suggest that they may be involved in regulating fetal growth. Although previous studies suggest comparatively high levels of body fat in the Asian population, values obtained in this study are not significantly different from values previously reported from Caucasian populations. According to this preliminary study, maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and weight may contribute as significant indicators of cord blood parameters of insulin resistance and possibly the birth weight of the newborn.

Keywords: large for gestational age, leptin, C-peptide, insulin

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Authors: Sara Qandil, Harriet Bothwell, Lowri Evans, Kevin Jones, Simon Collin

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Background: Uganda suffers from high rates of HIV. Misconceptions around HIV are known to be prevalent in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Two of the most common misconceptions in Uganda are that HIV can be transmitted by mosquito bites or from sharing food. The aim of this project was to establish the local misconceptions around HIV in a Central Ugandan population, and identify if there is a role for patient education leaflets. This project was undertaken as a student selected component (SSC) offered by Swindon Academy, based at the Great Western Hospital, to medical students in their fourth year of the undergraduate programme. Methods: The study was conducted at Villa Maria Hospital; a private, rural hospital in Kalungu District, Central Uganda. 36 patients, 23 from the hospital clinic and 13 from the community were interviewed regarding their understanding of HIV and by what channels they had obtained this understanding. Interviews were conducted using local student nurses as translators. Verbal responses were translated and then transcribed by the researcher. The same 36 patients then undertook a 'misconception' test consisting of 35 questions. Quantitative data was analysed using descriptive statistics and results were scored based on three components of 'transmission knowledge', 'prevention knowledge' and 'misconception rejection'. Each correct response to a question was scored one point, otherwise zero e.g. correctly rejecting a misconception scored one point, but answering ‘yes’ or ‘don’t know’ scored zero. Scores ≤ 27 (the average score) were classified as having ‘poor understanding’. Mean scores were compared between participants seen at the HIV clinic and in the community, and p-values (including Fisher’s exact test) were calculated using Stata 2015. Level of significance was set at 0.05. Interviews with 7 members of staff working in the HIV clinic were undertaken to establish what methods of communication are used to educate patients. Interviews were transcribed and thematic analysis undertaken. Results: The commonest misconceptions which failed to be rejected included transmission of HIV by kissing (78%), mosquitoes (69%) and touching (36%). 33% believed HIV may be prevented by praying. The overall mean scores for transmission knowledge (87.5%) and prevention knowledge (81.1%) were better than misconception rejection scores (69.3%). HIV clinic respondents did tend to have higher scores, i.e. fewer misconceptions, although there was statistical evidence of a significant difference only for prevention knowledge (p=0.03). Analysis of the qualitative data is ongoing but several patients expressed concerns about not being able to read and therefore leaflets not having a helpful role. Conclusions: Results from this paper identified that a high proportion of the population studied held misconceptions about HIV. Qualitative data suggests that there may be a role for patient education leaflets, if pictorial-based and suitable for those with low literacy skill.

Keywords: HIV, human immunodeficiency virus, misconceptions, patient education, Sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda

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Authors: Oluwafunmibi Omotayo Fasanya, Augustine Kena Adjei

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Effective management of hypertension remains a critical public health challenge, particularly among racially and ethnically diverse populations. This study employs sophisticated statistical models to rigorously investigate the predictors of poor blood pressure (BP) control, with a specific focus on demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical risk factors. Leveraging a large sample of 19,253 adults drawn from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) across three distinct time periods (2013-2014, 2015-2016, and 2017-2020), we applied multivariable logistic regression and generalized estimating equations (GEE) to account for the clustered structure of the data and potential within-subject correlations. Our multivariable models identified significant associations between poor BP control and several key predictors, including race/ethnicity, age, gender, body mass index (BMI), prevalent diabetes, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Non-Hispanic Black individuals consistently exhibited higher odds of poor BP control across all periods (OR = 1.99; 95% CI: 1.69, 2.36 for the overall sample; OR = 2.33; 95% CI: 1.79, 3.02 for 2017-2020). Younger age groups demonstrated substantially lower odds of poor BP control compared to individuals aged 75 and older (OR = 0.15; 95% CI: 0.11, 0.20 for ages 18-44). Men also had a higher likelihood of poor BP control relative to women (OR = 1.55; 95% CI: 1.31, 1.82), while BMI ≥35 kg/m² (OR = 1.76; 95% CI: 1.40, 2.20) and the presence of diabetes (OR = 2.20; 95% CI: 1.80, 2.68) were associated with increased odds of poor BP management. Further analysis using GEE models, accounting for temporal correlations and repeated measures, confirmed the robustness of these findings. Notably, individuals with chronic kidney disease displayed markedly elevated odds of poor BP control (OR = 3.72; 95% CI: 3.09, 4.48), with significant differences across the survey periods. Additionally, higher education levels and better self-reported diet quality were associated with improved BP control. College graduates exhibited a reduced likelihood of poor BP control (OR = 0.64; 95% CI: 0.46, 0.89), particularly in the 2015-2016 period (OR = 0.48; 95% CI: 0.28, 0.84). Similarly, excellent dietary habits were associated with significantly lower odds of poor BP control (OR = 0.64; 95% CI: 0.44, 0.94), underscoring the importance of lifestyle factors in hypertension management. In conclusion, our findings provide compelling evidence of the complex interplay between demographic, clinical, and socioeconomic factors in predicting poor BP control. The application of advanced statistical techniques such as GEE enhances the reliability of these results by addressing the correlated nature of repeated observations. This study highlights the need for targeted interventions that consider racial/ethnic disparities, clinical comorbidities, and lifestyle modifications in improving BP control outcomes.

Keywords: hypertension, blood pressure, NHANES, generalized estimating equations

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Authors: Ralph Nyadu-Addo, Francis Matambalya, Utz Dornberger

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The global music industry is a multi-billion dollar sector. The potential of Africa’s music industry is widely recognised in the socio-economic development milieu. It has impacted positively on several sectors including most especially the tourism, media and information, communication technology (ICT) among others. It is becoming increasingly clear that even in Africa (as demonstrated in Nigeria) that in addition to its intrinsic value, the sector has significant economic returns. UNCTAD observed, the creative industries offer some of the best prospects for high growth in least developed countries. The statistics from Africa may be far lower than similar sectors in developed countries but it goes to give further credence to several UNCTAD publications which say the creative industry is under researched and its potential under-estimated but holds the key to its rapid development The emerging creative economy (music in particular) has become a leading component of economic growth, employment, trade, innovation, and social cohesion in many countries. In line with these developments, the Ghana government recognizes the potential that the Creative Industries have to shape and reinforce Ghana’s economic growth. Creative sectors, particularly music, tend to rely less on sophisticated infrastructure or capital-intensive investment. Potential is particularly abundant in Africa, where musical creativity is rich, diverse, well-loved, and constantly evolving while drawing on strong traditions. The development of a popular music industry thus represents low-hanging fruit for most African economies says the World Bank. As we shift towards economic diversification using the creative industry, value is increasingly created at the intersection of arts, business and technology. Cultural and creative entrepreneurs are leading this trend. It is one of the areas where value is captured within the country as emerging trends have shown in Nigeria and Ghana among others. Yet, evidence shows that the potential of the cultural and creative sectors remains largely untapped. Furthermore, its socio-economic impact remains under-researched in many developing countries and its dynamics unknown. Despite its huge influence on music repertoire across the globe, most countries in Africa have not historically been significant markets for the international music industry. Today, that is beginning to change. Generally, reliable and adequate literature about music in the sub-region is difficult to obtain. The growing interests in academia and business cycles about a reliable data on the growing music industry in developing countries have called for an urgent need to undertake this research. Research questions: i. Who are the major stakeholders in the music value chain in Ghana? ii. How much of value is captured domestically iii. What is the economic impact of the Ghanaian music industry iv. How has the advent of ICT (internet) impacted on the music landscape? Research sources will be mainly through interviews of major stakeholders, baseline study of the industry by KPMG and content analysis of related newspapers and magazines.

Keywords: economic impact, information communications technology (ICT), music-industry, value chain

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Authors: Andrew Cummings, Rhianne Boag, Sarah Bryson, Gordon Turner

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Packages designed for transport of radioactive material must satisfy rigorous safety regulations specified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Higher Activity Waste (HAW) transport packages have to maintain containment of their contents during normal and accident conditions of transport (NCT and ACT). To ensure containment criteria is satisfied these packages are required to be leak-tight in all transport conditions to meet allowable activity release rates. Package design safety reports are the safety cases that provide the claims, evidence and arguments to demonstrate that packages meet the regulations and once approved by the competent authority (in the UK this is the Office for Nuclear Regulation) a licence to transport radioactive material is issued for the package(s). The standard approach to demonstrating containment in the RWM transport safety case is set out in BS EN ISO 12807. In this document a method for measuring a leak rate from the package is explained by way of a small interspace test volume situated between two O-ring seals on the underside of the package lid. The interspace volume is pressurised and a pressure drop measured. A small interspace test volume makes the method more sensitive enabling the measurement of smaller leak rates. By ascertaining the activity of the contents, identifying a releasable fraction of material and by treating that fraction of material as a gas, allowable leak rates for NCT and ACT are calculated. The adherence to basic safety principles in ISO12807 is very pessimistic and current practice in the demonstration of transport safety, which is accepted by the UK regulator. It is UK government policy that management of HAW will be through geological disposal. It is proposed that the intermediate level waste be transported to the geological disposal facility (GDF) in large cuboid packages. This poses a challenge for containment demonstration because such packages will have long seals and therefore large interspace test volumes. There is also uncertainty on the releasable fraction of material within the package ullage space. This is because the waste may be in many different forms which makes it difficult to define the fraction of material released by the waste package. Additionally because of the large interspace test volume, measuring the calculated leak rates may not be achievable. For this reason a justification for a lower releasable fraction of material is sought. This paper considers the use of aerosol processes to reduce the releasable fraction for both NCT and ACT. It reviews the basic coagulation and removal processes and applies the dynamic aerosol balance equation. The proposed solution includes only the most well understood physical processes namely; Brownian coagulation and gravitational settling. Other processes have been eliminated either on the basis that they would serve to reduce the release to the environment further (pessimistically in keeping with the essence of nuclear transport safety cases) or that they are not credible in the conditions of transport considered.

Keywords: aerosol processes, Brownian coagulation, gravitational settling, transport regulations

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Authors: Yohanna Panshak

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The impact of macroeconomic instability on economic growth and prosperity has been at forefront in many discourses among researchers and policy makers and has generated a lot of controversies over the years. This has generated series of research efforts towards understanding the remote causes of this phenomenon; its nature, determinants and how it can be targeted and mitigated. While others have opined that the root cause of macroeconomic flux in Nigeria is attributed to Oil-Price volatility, others viewed the issue as resulting from some constellation of structural constraints both within and outside the shores of the country. Research works of scholars such as [Akpan (2009), Aliyu (2009), Olomola (2006), etc] argue that oil volatility can determine economic growth or has the potential of doing so. On the contrary, [Darby (1982), Cerralo (2005) etc] share the opinion that it can slow down growth. The earlier argument rest on the understanding that for a net balance of oil exporting economies, price upbeat directly increases real national income through higher export earnings, whereas, the latter allude to the case of net-oil importing countries (which experience price rises, increased input costs, reduced non-oil demand, low investment, fall in tax revenues and ultimately an increase in budget deficit which will further reduce welfare level). Therefore, assessing the precise impact of oil price volatility on virtually any economy is a function of whether it is an oil-exporting or importing nation. Research on oil price volatility and its outcome on the growth of the Nigerian economy are evolving and in a march towards resolving Nigeria’s macroeconomic instability as long as oil revenue still remain the mainstay and driver of socio-economic engineering. Recently, a major importer of Nigeria’s oil- United States made a historic breakthrough in more efficient source of energy for her economy with the capacity of serving significant part of the world. This undoubtedly suggests a threat to the exchange earnings of the country. The need to understand fluctuation in its major export commodity is critical. This paper leans on the Renaissance growth theory with greater focus on theoretical work of Lee (1998); a leading proponent of this school who makes a clear cut of difference between oil price changes and oil price volatility. Based on the above background, the research seeks to empirically examine the impact oil-price volatility on government expenditure using quarterly time series data spanning 1986:1 to 2014:4. Vector Auto Regression (VAR) econometric approach shall be used. The structural properties of the model shall be tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron. Relevant diagnostics tests of heteroscedasticity, serial correlation and normality shall also be carried out. Policy recommendation shall be offered on the empirical findings and believes it assist policy makers not only in Nigeria but the world-over.

Keywords: oil-price, volatility, prosperity, budget, expenditure

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Authors: Tagel Gebrehiwot, Carolina Castilla

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Food insecurity and child malnutrition are among the most critical issues in Ethiopia. Accordingly, different reform programs have been carried to improve household food security. The Food Security Program (FSP) (among others) was introduced to combat the persistent food insecurity problem in the country. The FSP combines a safety net component called the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) started in 2005. The goal of PSNP is to offer multi-annual transfers, such as food, cash or a combination of both to chronically food insecure households to break the cycle of food aid. Food or cash transfers are the main elements of PSNP. The case for cash transfers builds on the Sen’s analysis of ‘entitlement to food’, where he argues that restoring access to food by improving demand is a more effective and sustainable response to food insecurity than food aid. Cash-based schemes offer a greater choice of use of the transfer and can allow a greater diversity of food choice. It has been proven that dietary diversity is positively associated with the key pillars of food security. Thus, dietary diversity is considered as a measure of household’s capacity to access a variety of food groups. Studies of dietary diversity among Ethiopian rural households are somewhat rare and there is still a dearth of evidence on the impact of PSNP on household dietary diversity. In this paper, we examine the impact of the Ethiopia’s PSNP on household dietary diversity and child nutrition using panel household surveys. We employed different methodologies for identification. We exploit the exogenous increase in kebeles’ PSNP budget to identify the effect of the change in the amount of money households received in transfers between 2012 and 2014 on the change in dietary diversity. We use three different approaches to identify this effect: two-stage least squares, reduced form IV, and generalized propensity score matching using a continuous treatment. The results indicate the increase in PSNP transfers between 2012 and 2014 had no effect on household dietary diversity. Estimates for different household dietary indicators reveal that the effect of the change in the cash transfer received by the household is statistically and economically insignificant. This finding is robust to different identification strategies and the inclusion of control variables that determine eligibility to become a PSNP beneficiary. To identify the effect of PSNP participation on children height-for-age and stunting we use a difference-in-difference approach. We use children between 2 and 5 in 2012 as a baseline because by then they have achieved long-term failure to grow. The treatment group comprises children ages 2 to 5 in 2014 in PSNP participant households. While changes in height-for-age take time, two years of additional transfers among children who were not born or under the age of 2-3 in 2012 have the potential to make a considerable impact on reducing the prevalence of stunting. The results indicate that participation in PSNP had no effect on child nutrition measured as height-for-age or probability of beings stunted, suggesting that PSNP should be designed in a more nutrition-sensitive way.

Keywords: continuous treatment, dietary diversity, impact, nutrition security

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Authors: Pule P. Mpopetsi, Warren M. Potts, Nicola James, Amber Childs

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Increased CO₂ production and the consequent ocean acidification (OA) have been identified as one of the greatest threats to both calcifying and non-calcifying marine organisms. Traditionally, marine fishes, as non-calcifying organisms, were considered to have a higher tolerance to near-future OA conditions owing to their well-developed ion regulatory mechanisms. However, recent studies provide evidence to suggest that they may not be as resilient to near-future OA conditions as previously thought. In addition, earlier life stages of marine fishes are thought to be less tolerant than juveniles and adults of the same species as they lack well-developed ion regulatory mechanisms for maintaining homeostasis. This study focused on the effects of near-future OA on larval Argyrosomus japonicus, an estuarine-dependent marine fish species, in order to identify the tipping point of tolerance for the larvae of this species. Larval A. japonicus in the present study were reared from the egg up to 22 days after hatching (DAH) under three treatments. The three treatments, (pCO₂ 353 µatm; pH 8.03), (pCO₂ 451 µatm; pH 7.93) and (pCO₂ 602 µatm; pH 7.83) corresponded to levels predicted to occur in year 2050, 2068 and 2090 respectively under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (IPCC RCP) 8.5 model. Size-at-hatch, growth, development, and metabolic responses (standard and active metabolic rates and metabolic scope) were assessed and compared between the three treatments throughout the rearing period. Five earlier larval life stages (hatchling – flexion/post-flexion) were identified by the end of the experiment. There were no significant differences in size-at-hatch (p > 0.05), development or the active metabolic (p > 0.05) or metabolic scope (p > 0.05) of fish in the three treatments throughout the study. However, the standard metabolic rate was significantly higher in the year 2068 treatment but only at the flexion/post-flexion stage which could be attributed to differences in developmental rates (including the development of the gills) between the 2068 and the other two treatments. Overall, the metabolic scope was narrowest in the 2090 treatment but varied according to life stage. Although not significantly different, metabolic scope in the 2090 treatment was noticeably lower at the flexion stage compared to the other two treatments, and the development appeared slower, suggesting that this could be the stage most prone to OA. The study concluded that, in isolation, OA levels predicted to occur between 2050 and 2090 will not negatively affect size-at-hatch, growth, development, and metabolic responses of larval A. japonicus up to 22 DAH (flexion/post-flexion stage). The present study also identified the tipping point of tolerance (where negative impacts will begin) in larvae of the species to be between the years 2090 and 2100.

Keywords: climate change, ecology, marine, ocean acidification

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