Search results for: computable general equilibrium model

Authors: Debarati Bhaumik, Diptish Dey

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Multilevel models, increasingly deployed in industries such as insurance, food production, and entertainment within functions such as marketing and supply chain management, need to be transparent and ethical. Applications usually result in binary classification within groups or hierarchies based on a set of input features. Using open-source datasets, we demonstrate that popular explainability methods, such as SHAP and LIME, consistently underperform inaccuracy when interpreting these models. They fail to predict the order of feature importance, the magnitudes, and occasionally even the nature of the feature contribution (negative versus positive contribution to the outcome). Besides accuracy, the computational intractability of SHAP for binomial classification is a cause of concern. For transparent and ethical applications of these hierarchical statistical models, sound audit frameworks need to be developed. In this paper, we propose an audit framework for technical assessment of multilevel regression models focusing on three aspects: (i) model assumptions & statistical properties, (ii) model transparency using different explainability methods, and (iii) discrimination assessment. To this end, we undertake a quantitative approach and compare intrinsic model methods with SHAP and LIME. The framework comprises a shortlist of KPIs, such as PoCE (Percentage of Correct Explanations) and MDG (Mean Discriminatory Gap) per feature, for each of these three aspects. A traffic light risk assessment method is furthermore coupled to these KPIs. The audit framework will assist regulatory bodies in performing conformity assessments of AI systems using multilevel binomial classification models at businesses. It will also benefit businesses deploying multilevel models to be future-proof and aligned with the European Commission’s proposed Regulation on Artificial Intelligence.

Keywords: audit, multilevel model, model transparency, model explainability, discrimination, ethics

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Zhi-Jun Lu, Qi Lu, Meng Wu, Qian Xiang, Jun Gu

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The analysis of perforated steel members is a 3D problem in nature, therefore the traditional analytical expressions for the ultimate load of thin-walled steel sections cannot be used for the perforated steel member design. In this study, finite element method (FEM) and artificial neural network (ANN) were used to simulate the process of stub column tests based on specific codes. Results show that compared with those of the FEM model, the ultimate load predictions obtained from ANN technique were much closer to those obtained from the physical experiments. The ANN model for the solving the hard problem of complex steel perforated sections is very promising.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), finite element method (FEM), perforated sections, thin-walled Steel, ultimate load

Procedia PDF Downloads 352

Authors: Mario Gianni, Federico Nardi, Federico Ferri, Filippo Cantucci, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Karthik Pushparaj, Fiora Pirri

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In this paper, we describe a Mixed-Initiative Operational Model (MIOM) which directly intervenes on the state of the functionalities embedded into a robot for Urban Search&Rescue (USAR) domain applications. MIOM extends the reasoning capabilities of the vehicle, i.e. mapping, path planning, visual perception and trajectory tracking, with operator knowledge. Especially in USAR scenarios, this coupled initiative has the main advantage of enhancing the overall performance of a rescue mission. In-field experiments with rescue responders have been carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of this operational model.

Keywords: mixed-initiative planning and control, operator control interfaces for rescue robotics, situation awareness, urban search, rescue robotics

Procedia PDF Downloads 374

Authors: Juan C. Domínguez, Belén Del Saz-Orozco, María V. Alonso, Mercedes Oliet, Francisco Rodríguez

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In the present study, the kinetics of thermal degradation of a phenolic and lignin reinforced phenolic foams, and the lignin used as reinforcement were studied and the activation energies of their degradation processes were obtained by a DAEM model. The average values for five heating rates of the mean activation energies obtained were: 99.1, 128.2, and 144.0 kJ.mol-1 for the phenolic foam, 109.5, 113.3, and 153.0 kJ.mol-1 for the lignin reinforcement, and 82.1, 106.9, and 124.4 kJ. mol-1 for the lignin reinforced phenolic foam. The standard deviation ranges calculated for each sample were 1.27-8.85, 2.22-12.82, and 3.17-8.11 kJ.mol-1 for the phenolic foam, lignin and the reinforced foam, respectively. The DAEM model showed low mean square errors (< 1x10-5), proving that is a suitable model to study the kinetics of thermal degradation of the foams and the reinforcement.

Keywords: kinetics, lignin, phenolic foam, thermal degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 488

Authors: Chin Ku, Han liang Lin

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The purpose of this study is to visualize how the rule related to urban design influences the building form by 3D modeling software CityEngine. In order to make the goal of urban design clearly connect to urban form, urban planner or designer should understand how the rule affects the form, especially the building form. In Taiwan, the rule pertained to urban design includes traditional zoning, urban design review and building codes. However, zoning cannot precisely expect the outcome of building form and lack of thinking about public realm and 3D form. In addition to that, urban design review is based on case by case, do not have a comprehensive regulation plan and the building code is just for general regulation. Therefore, rule cannot make the urban form reach the vision or goal of the urban design. Consequently, another kind of zoning called Form-based code (FBC) has arisen. This study uses the component of FBC which pertained to urban fabric such as street width, block and plot size, etc., to be the variants of building form, and find out the relationship between the rule and building form. There are three stages of this research, it will start from a field survey of Taichung City in Taiwan to induce the rule-building form relationship by using cluster analysis and descriptive Statistics. Second, visualize the relationship through the parameterized and codified process in CityEngine which is the procedural modeling, and can analyze, monitor and visualize the 3D world. Last, compare the CityEngine result with real world to examine how extent do this model represent the real world appearance.

Keywords: 3D visualization, CityEngine, form-based code, urban form

Procedia PDF Downloads 550

Authors: Fabiana Lucena Oliveira, Aristides da Rocha Oliveira Junior

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This article discusses the dependence on air transport mode of agile supply chains. The agile supply chains are the result of the analysis of the uncertainty supply chain model, which ranks the supply chain, according to the respective product. Thus, understanding the Uncertainty Model and life cycle of products considered standard and innovative is critical to understanding these. The innovative character in the intersection of supply chains arising from the uncertainty model with its most appropriate transport mode. Consider here the variables availability, security and freight as determinants for choosing these modes. Therefore, the research problem is: How agile supply chains maintains logistics competitiveness, as these are dependent on air transport mode? A case study in Manaus Industrial Pole (MIP), an agglomeration model that includes six hundred industries from different backgrounds and billings, located in the Brazilian Amazon. The sample of companies surveyed include those companies whose products are classified in agile supply chains , as innovative and therefore live with the variable uncertainty in the demand for inputs or the supply of finished products. The results confirm the hypothesis that the dependency level of air transport mode is greater than fifty percent. It follows then, that maintain agile supply chain away from suppliers base is expensive (1) , and continuity analysis needs to be remade on each twenty four months (2) , consider that additional freight, handling and storage as members of the logistics costs (3) , and the comparison with the upcoming agile supply chains the world need to consider the location effect (4).

Keywords: uncertainty model, air transport mode, competitiveness, logistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 511

Authors: Zahira Anane, Abdelhafid Bayadi

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Corona in the HV overhead transmission lines is an important source of attenuation and distortion of overvoltage surges. This phenomenon of distortion, which is superimposed on the distortion by skin effect, is due to the dissipation of energy by injection of space charges around the conductor, this process with place as soon as the instantaneous voltage exceeds the threshold voltage of the corona effect conductors. This paper presents a mathematical model to determine the corona inception voltage, the critical electric field and the corona radius, to predict the capacitive changes at conductor of transmission line due to corona. This model has been incorporated into the Alternative Transients Program version of the Electromagnetic Transients Program (ATP/EMTP) as a user defined component, using the MODELS interface with NORTON TYPE94 of this program and using the foreign subroutine. For obtained the displacement of corona charge hell, dichotomy mathematical method is used for this computation. The present corona model can be used for computing of distortion and attenuation of transient overvoltage waves being propagated in a transmission line of the very high voltage electric power.

Keywords: high voltage, corona, Type94 NORTON, dichotomy, ATP/EMTP, MODELS, distortion, foreign model

Procedia PDF Downloads 625

Authors: Sara De Pelsmaeker, Catarina Ferreira da Silva, Janne Prawit

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Recent studies show that enzymatically hydrolysed collagen is absorbed and distributed to joint tissues, where it has analgesic and active anti-inflammatory properties. Reviews of the associated relevant literature also support this theory. However, these studies are all using hydrolyzed collagen from animal hide or skin. This study looks into the effect of daily supplementation of hydrolyzed cartilage collagen (HCC), which has a different composition. A consumer study was set up using a double-blind placebo-controlled design with a control group using twice a day 0.5gr of maltodextrin and an experimental group using twice 0.5g of HCC, over a trial period of 12 weeks. A follow-up phase of 4 weeks without supplementation was taken into the experiment to investigate the ‘wash-out’ phase. As this consumer study was conducted during the lockdown periods, a specific app was designed to follow up with the participants. The app had the advantage that in this way, the motivation of the participants was enhanced and the drop-out range of participants was lower than normally seen in consumer studies. Participants were recruited via various sports and health clubs across the UK as we targeted a general population of people that considered themselves in good health. Exclusion criteria were ‘not experiencing any medical conditions’ and ‘not taking any prescribed medication’. A minimum requirement was that they regularly engaged in some level of physical activity. The participants had to log the type of activity that they conducted and the duration of the activity. Weekly, participants were providing feedback on their joint health and subjective pain using the validated pain measuring instrument Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). The weekly repoAbstract Public Health and Wellbeing Conferencerting section in the app was designed with simplicity and based on the accuracy demonstrated in previous similar studies to track subjective pain measures of participants. At the beginning of the trial, each participant indicated their baseline on joint pain. The results of this consumer study indicated that HCC significantly improved joint health and subjective pain scores compared to the placebo group. No significant differences were found between different demographic groups (age or gender). The level of activity, going from high intensive training to regular walking, did not significantly influence the effect of the HCC. The results of the wash-out phase indicated that when the participants stopped the HCC supplementation, their subjective pain scores increased again to the baseline. In conclusion, the results gave a positive indication that the daily supplementation of HCC can contribute to the overall mobility and wellbeing of a general active population

Keywords: VAS-score, food supplement, mobility, joint health

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Authors: Christian Rathgeber, Franz Winkler, Xiaoyu Kang, Steffen Müller

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In this contribution two approaches for calculating optimal trajectories for highly automated vehicles are presented and compared. The first one is based on a non-linear vehicle model, used for evaluation. The second one is based on a simplified model and can be implemented on a current ECU. In usual driving situations both approaches show very similar results.

Keywords: trajectory planning, direct method, indirect method, highly automated driving

Procedia PDF Downloads 533

Authors: Adam Kurnicki, Bartłomiej Stanczyk, Bartosz Kania

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This paper presents development of the light-weight manipulator with series elastic actuation for medical telediagnostics (USG examination). General structure of realized impedance control algorithm was shown. It was described how to perform force measurements based mainly on elasticity of manipulator links.

Keywords: telediagnostics, elastic manipulator, impedance control, force measurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 477

Authors: A. Hocine, A. Ghouaoula, S. M. Medjdoub, M. Cherifi

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The present paper proposed a meso–macro model describing the mechanical behaviour composite laminates of staking sequence [+θ/-θ]s under tensil loading. The behaviour of a layer is ex-pressed through elasticity coupled to damage. The elastic strain is due to the elasticity of the layer and can be modeled by using the classical laminate theory, and the laminate is considered as an orthotropic material. This means that no coupling effect between strain and curvature is considered. In the present work, the damage is associated to cracking of the matrix and parallel to the fibers and it being taken into account by the changes in the stiffness of the layers. The anisotropic damage is completely described by a single scalar variable and its evolution law is specified from the principle of maximum dissipation. The stress/strain relationship is investigated in plane stress loading.

Keywords: damage, behavior modeling, meso-macro model, composite laminate, membrane loading

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Authors: R. Hellmuth, F. Wehner

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Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the construction of a factory. The requirements for factory planning and the building of a factory have changed in recent years. Regular restructuring is becoming more important in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Restrictions in new areas, shorter life cycles of product and production technology as well as a VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity) lead to more frequent restructuring measures within a factory. A digital factory model is the planning basis for rebuilding measures and becomes an indispensable tool. Short-term rescheduling can no longer be handled by on-site inspections and manual measurements. The tight time schedules require up-to-date planning models. Due to the high adaptation rate of factories described above, a methodology for rescheduling factories on the basis of a modern digital factory twin is conceived and designed for practical application in factory restructuring projects. The focus is on rebuild processes. The aim is to keep the planning basis (digital factory model) for conversions within a factory up to date. This requires the application of a methodology that reduces the deficits of existing approaches. The aim is to show how a digital factory model can be kept up to date during ongoing factory operation. A method based on photogrammetry technology is presented. The focus is on developing a simple and cost-effective solution to track the many changes that occur in a factory building during operation. The method is preceded by a hardware and software comparison to identify the most economical and fastest variant. 

Keywords: digital factory model, photogrammetry, factory planning, restructuring

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Juhan Kim, Jinsoo Kim

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South Korea cannot import natural gas in any form other than LNG because of the division of South and North Korea. Further, the high proportion of natural gas in the national energy mix makes this resource crucial for energy security in Korea. Expansion of Panama Canal will allow for reducing the cost of shipping between the Far East and U.S East. Panama Canal expansion can have significant impacts on South Korea. Due to this situation, we review the natural gas optimal portfolio by considering the uniqueness of the Korean Natural gas market and expansion of Panama Canal. In order to assess Korea’s natural gas optimal portfolio, we developed natural gas portfolio model. The model comprises two steps. First, to obtain the optimal long-term spot contract ratio, the study examines the price level and the correlation between spot and long-term contracts by using the Markowitz, portfolio model. The optimal long-term spot contract ratio follows the efficient frontier of the cost/risk level related to this price level and degree of correlation. Second, by applying the obtained long-term contract purchase ratio as the constraint in the linear programming portfolio model, we determined the natural gas optimal import portfolio that minimizes total intangible and tangible costs. Using this model, we derived the optimal natural gas portfolio considering the expansion of Panama Canal. Based on these results, we assess the portfolio for natural gas import to Korea from the perspective of energy security and present some relevant policy proposals.

Keywords: natural gas, Panama Canal, portfolio analysis, South Korea

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: Shubham Bhonde, Nekzad Doctor, Shashwat Gawande

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For the use and the import of Keys and ID Transmitter as well as Body Control Modules with radio transmission in a lot of countries, homologation is required. Final deliverables in homologation of the product are certificates. In considering the world of homologation, there are approximately 200 certificates per product, with most of the certificates in local languages. It is challenging to manually investigate each certificate and extract relevant data from the certificate, such as expiry date, approval date, etc. It is most important to get accurate data from the certificate as inaccuracy may lead to missing re-homologation of certificates that will result in an incompliance situation. There is a scope of automation in reading the certificate data in the field of homologation. We are using deep learning as a tool for automation. We have first trained a model using machine learning by providing all country's basic data. We have trained this model only once. We trained the model by feeding pdf and jpg files using the ETL process. Eventually, that trained model will give more accurate results later. As an outcome, we will get the expiry date and approval date of the certificate with a single click. This will eventually help to implement automation features on a broader level in the database where certificates are stored. This automation will help to minimize human error to almost negligible.

Keywords: homologation, re-homologation, data science, deep learning, machine learning, ETL (extract transform loading)

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Shokoufeh Abrisham, Seyed Mahmoud Hossieni, Elham Pishbin

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In this paper, a hybrid method based on the fault tree analysis (FTA) and Bayesian networks (BNs) are employed to evaluate the team performance quality of advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) procedures in emergency department. According to American Heart Association (AHA) guidelines, a category relying on staff action leading to clinical incidents and also some discussions with emergency medicine experts, a fault tree model for ACLS procedure is obtained based on the human performance. The obtained FTA model is converted into BNs, and some different scenarios are defined to demonstrate the efficiency and flexibility of the presented model of BNs. Also, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to indicate the effects of team leader presence and uncertainty knowledge of experts on the quality of ACLS. The proposed model based on BNs shows that how the results of risk analysis can be closed to reality comparing to the obtained results based on only FTA in medical procedures.

Keywords: advanced cardiac life support, fault tree analysis, Bayesian belief networks, numan performance, healthcare systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Eman Alzahrani

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Magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) were fabricated using the chemical co-precipitation method followed by coating the surface of magnetic Fe3O4 nanoparticles with gum arabic (GA). The fabricated magnetic nanoparticles were characterised using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) which showed that the Fe3O4 nanoparticles and GA-MNPs nanoparticles had a mean diameter of 33 nm, and 38 nm, respectively. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images showed that the MNPs modified with GA had homogeneous structure and agglomerated. The energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDAX) spectrum showed strong peaks of Fe and O. X-ray diffraction patterns (XRD) indicated that the naked magnetic nanoparticles were pure Fe3O4 with a spinel structure and the covering of GA did not result in a phase change. The covering of GA on the magnetic nanoparticles was also studied by BET analysis, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. Moreover, the present study reports a fast and simple method for removal and recovery of methylene blue dye (MB) from aqueous solutions by using the synthesised magnetic nanoparticles modified with gum arabic as adsorbent. The experimental results show that the adsorption process attains equilibrium within five minutes. The data fit the Langmuir isotherm equation and the maximum adsorption capacities were 8.77 mg mg-1 and 14.3 mg mg-1 for MNPs and GA-MNPs, respectively. The results indicated that the homemade magnetic nanoparticles were quite efficient for removing MB and will be a promising adsorbent for the removal of harmful dyes from waste-water.

Keywords: Fe3O4 magnetic nanoparticles, gum arabic, co-precipitation, adsorption dye, methylene blue, adsorption isotherm

Procedia PDF Downloads 432

Authors: Mohammad Anwar, Shah Waliullah

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This study investigated panel data regression models. This paper used Bayesian and classical methods to study the impact of institutions on economic growth from data (1990-2014), especially in developing countries. Under the classical and Bayesian methodology, the two-panel data models were estimated, which are common effects and fixed effects. For the Bayesian approach, the prior information is used in this paper, and normal gamma prior is used for the panel data models. The analysis was done through WinBUGS14 software. The estimated results of the study showed that panel data models are valid models in Bayesian methodology. In the Bayesian approach, the effects of all independent variables were positively and significantly affected by the dependent variables. Based on the standard errors of all models, we must say that the fixed effect model is the best model in the Bayesian estimation of panel data models. Also, it was proved that the fixed effect model has the lowest value of standard error, as compared to other models.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, common effect, fixed effect, random effect, Dynamic Random Effect Model

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Theresia El Khoury, Georges Badr, Amir Hajjam El Hassani, Stéphane N’Guyen Van Ky

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The widespread adoption of machine learning and artificial intelligence across different domains can be attributed to the digitization of data over several decades, resulting in vast amounts of data, types, and structures. Thus, data processing and preparation turn out to be a crucial stage. However, applying these techniques to S1000D standard-based data poses a challenge due to its complexity and the need to preserve logical information. This paper describes SALERNO, an S1000d AppLicability dEpended pRocessiNg mOdel. This python-based model analyzes and converts the XML S1000D-based files into an easier data format that can be used in machine learning techniques while preserving the different logic and relationships in files. The model parses the files in the given folder, filters them, and extracts the required information to be saved in appropriate data frames and Excel sheets. Its main idea is to group the extracted information by applicability. In addition, it extracts the full text by replacing internal and external references while maintaining the relationships between files, as well as the necessary requirements. The resulting files can then be saved in databases and used in different models. Documents in both English and French languages were tested, and special characters were decoded. Updates on the technical manuals were taken into consideration as well. The model was tested on different versions of the S1000D, and the results demonstrated its ability to effectively handle the applicability, requirements, references, and relationships across all files and on different levels.

Keywords: aeronautics, big data, data processing, machine learning, S1000D

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Yifu Ding, Vijay Avinash, Malcolm McCulloch

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As the proliferation of decentralized energy systems, the UK power system allows small-scale entities such as microgrids (MGs) to tender multiple energy services including energy arbitrage and frequency responses (FRs). However, its operation requires the balance between the uncertain renewable generations and loads in real-time and has to fulfill their provision requirements of contract services continuously during the time window agreed, otherwise it will be penalized for the under-delivered provision. To hedge against risks due to uncertainties and maximize the economic benefits, we propose a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) framework to optimize its operation for the multi-service provision. Distinguished from previous works, we include a detailed economic-degradation model of the lithium-ion battery to quantify the costs of different service provisions, as well as accurately describe the changing dynamics of the battery. Considering a branch of load and generation scenarios and the battery aging, we formulate a risk-averse cost function using conditional value at risk (CVaR). It aims to achieve the maximum expected net revenue and avoids severe losses. The framework will be performed on a case study of a PV-battery grid-tied microgrid in the UK with real-life data. To highlight its performance, the framework will be compared with the case without the degradation model and the deterministic formulation.

Keywords: model predictive control (MPC), battery degradation, frequency response, microgrids

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Authors: M. Ahmadi, Sh. Damanabi, F. Sadoughi

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National Health Information System plays an important role in ensuring timely and reliable access to Health information which is essential for strategic and operational decisions that improve health, quality and effectiveness of health care. In other words, by using the National Health information system you can improve the quality of health data, information and knowledge used to support decision making at all levels and areas of the health sector. Since full identification of the components of this system for better planning and management influential factors of performance seems necessary, therefore, in this study, different attitudes towards components of this system are explored comparatively. Methods: This is a descriptive and comparative kind of study. The society includes printed and electronic documents containing components of the national health information system in three parts: input, process, and output. In this context, search for information using library resources and internet search were conducted and data analysis was expressed using comparative tables and qualitative data. Results: The findings showed that there are three different perspectives presenting the components of national health information system, Lippeveld, Sauerborn, and Bodart Model in 2000, Health Metrics Network (HMN) model from World Health Organization in 2008 and Gattini’s 2009 model. All three models outlined above in the input (resources and structure) require components of management and leadership, planning and design programs, supply of staff, software and hardware facilities, and equipment. In addition, in the ‘process’ section from three models, we pointed up the actions ensuring the quality of health information system and in output section, except Lippeveld Model, two other models consider information products, usage and distribution of information as components of the national health information system. Conclusion: The results showed that all the three models have had a brief discussion about the components of health information in input section. However, Lippeveld model has overlooked the components of national health information in process and output sections. Therefore, it seems that the health measurement model of network has a comprehensive presentation for the components of health system in all three sections-input, process, and output.

Keywords: National Health Information System, components of the NHIS, Lippeveld Model

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Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

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In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

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Authors: Sina Dehghani, Zhikang Rong

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Historically, a variety of approaches have been taken to forecast commodity prices due to the significant implications of these values on the global economy. An accurate forecasting tool for a valuable commodity would significantly benefit investors and governmental agencies. Silver, in particular, has grown significantly as a commodity in recent years due to its use in healthcare and technology. This manuscript aims to utilize the Geometric Brownian Motion predictive model to forecast silver commodity prices over multiple 3-year periods. The results of the study indicate that the model has several limitations, particularly its inability to work effectively over longer periods of time, but still was extremely effective over shorter time frames. This study sets a baseline for silver commodity forecasting with GBM, and the model could be further strengthened with refinement.

Keywords: geometric Brownian motion, commodity, risk management, volatility, stochastic behavior, price forecasting

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Authors: Mojahid F. Saeed Osman

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Repairable items inventory system is a management tool used to incorporate all information concerning inventory levels and movements for repaired and new items. This paper presents development of an effective simulation model for managing the inventory of repairable items for a production system where production lines send their faulty items to a repair shop considering the stochastic failure behavior and repair times. The developed model imitates the process of handling the on-hand inventory of repaired items and the replenishment of the inventory of new items using Economic Order Quantity and Reorder Point ordering policy in a flexible and risk-free environment. We demonstrate the appropriateness and effectiveness of the proposed simulation model using an illustrative case problem. The developed simulation model can be used as a reliable tool for estimating a healthy on-hand inventory of new and repaired items, backordered items, and downtime due to unavailability of repaired items, and validating and examining Economic Order Quantity and Reorder Point ordering policy, which would further be compared with other ordering strategies as future work.

Keywords: inventory system, repairable items, simulation, maintenance, economic order quantity, reorder point

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Mohamed Bendahmane, Brahim Elfalaki, Mohammed Benattou

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One of the major sources of learners' professional difficulties is their heterogeneity. Whether on cognitive, social, cultural or emotional level, learners being part of the same group have many differences. These differences do not allow to apply the same learning process at all learners. Thus, an optimal learning path for one, is not necessarily the same for the other. We present in this paper a model-oriented service to offer to each learner a personalized learning path to acquire the targeted skills.

Keywords: learning path, web service, trace analysis, personalization

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Ahmad Aslizadeh, Farid Ghaderi

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Mapping organizational knowledge is an innovative concept and useful instrument of representation, capturing and visualization of implicit and explicit knowledge. There are a diversity of methods, instruments and techniques presented by different researchers following mapping organizational knowledge to reach determined goals. Implicating of these methods, it is necessary to know their exigencies and conditions in which those can be used. Integrating identified methods of knowledge mapping and comparing them would help knowledge managers to select the appropriate methods. This research conducted to presenting a model and framework to map organizational knowledge. At first, knowledge maps, their applications and necessity are introduced because of extracting comparative framework and detection of their structure. At the next step techniques of researchers such as Eppler, Kim, Egbu, Tandukar and Ebner as knowledge mapping models are presented and surveyed. Finally, they compare and a superior model would be introduced.

Keywords: knowledge mapping, knowledge management, comparative study, business and management

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Authors: Allouache Nadia

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Solid adsorption cooling machines have been extensively studied recently. They constitute very attractive solutions recover important amount of industrial waste heat medium temperature and to use renewable energy sources such as solar energy. The development of the technology of these machines can be carried out by experimental studies and by mathematical modelisation. This last method allows saving time and money because it is suppler to use to simulate the variation of different parameters. The adsorption cooling machines consist essentially of an evaporator, a condenser and a reactor (object of this work) containing a porous medium, which is in our case the activated carbon reacting by adsorption with ammoniac. The principle can be described as follows: When the adsorbent (at temperature T) is in exclusive contact with vapour of adsorbate (at pressure P), an amount of adsorbate is trapped inside the micro-pores in an almost liquid state. This adsorbed mass m, is a function of T and P according to a divariant equilibrium m=f (T,P). Moreover, at constant pressure, m decreases as T increases, and at constant adsorbed mass P increases with T. This makes it possible to imagine an ideal refrigerating cycle consisting of a period of heating/desorption/condensation followed by a period of cooling/adsorption/evaporation. Effect of key parameters on the machine performances are analysed and discussed.

Keywords: activated carbon-ammoniac pair, effect of key parameters, numerical modeling, solar cooling machine

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Authors: Rattakorn Poonsuph

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Technological innovation plays a crucial role in virtual healthcare services. A growing number of telehealth platforms are concentrating on using digital tools to improve the quality and availability of care. As a result, telehealth represents an opportunity to redesign the way health services are delivered. The research objective is to discover a new business model for digital health services and related industries to participate with telehealth solutions. The business opportunity is valuable for healthcare investors as a startup company to further investigations or implement the telehealth platform. The paper presents a digital healthcare business model and business opportunities to related industries. These include digital healthcare services extending from a traditional business model and use cases of business opportunities to related industries. Although there are enormous business opportunities, telehealth is still challenging due to the patient adaption and digital transformation process within a healthcare organization.

Keywords: telehealth, Internet hospital, HealthTech, InsurTech

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Authors: Mina Naeini, Thomas A. Adams II

Abstract:

Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) feature high electrical efficiency and generate substantial amounts of waste heat that make them suitable for integrated community energy systems (ICEs). By harvesting and distributing the waste heat through hot water pipelines, SOFCs can meet thermal demand of the communities. Therefore, they can replace traditional gas boilers and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite these advantages of SOFCs over competing power generation units, this technology has not been successfully commercialized in large-scale to replace traditional generators in ICEs. One reason is that SOFC performance deteriorates over long-term operation, which makes it difficult to find the proper sizing of the cells for a particular ICE system. In order to find the optimal sizing and operating conditions of SOFCs in a community, a proper knowledge of degradation mechanisms and effects of operating conditions on SOFCs long-time performance is required. The simplified SOFC models that exist in the current literature usually do not provide realistic results since they usually underestimate rate of performance drop by making too many assumptions or generalizations. In addition, some of these models have been obtained from experimental data by curve-fitting methods. Although these models are valid for the range of operating conditions in which experiments were conducted, they cannot be generalized to other conditions and so have limited use for most ICEs. In the present study, a general, detailed degradation-based model is proposed that predicts the performance of conventional SOFCs over a long period of time at different operating conditions. Conventional SOFCs are composed of Yttria Stabilized Zirconia (YSZ) as electrolyte, Ni-cermet anodes, and LaSr₁₋ₓMnₓO₃ (LSM) cathodes. The following degradation processes are considered in this model: oxidation and coarsening of nickel particles in the Ni-cermet anodes, changes in the pore radius in anode, electrolyte, and anode electrical conductivity degradation, and sulfur poisoning of the anode compartment. This model helps decision makers discover the optimal sizing and operation of the cells for a stable, efficient performance with the fewest assumptions. It is suitable for a wide variety of applications. Sulfur contamination of the anode compartment is an important cause of performance drop in cells supplied with hydrocarbon-based fuel sources. H₂S, which is often added to hydrocarbon fuels as an odorant, can diminish catalytic behavior of Ni-based anodes by lowering their electrochemical activity and hydrocarbon conversion properties. Therefore, the existing models in the literature for H₂-supplied SOFCs cannot be applied to hydrocarbon-fueled SOFCs as they only account for the electrochemical activity reduction. A regression model is developed in the current work for sulfur contamination of the SOFCs fed with hydrocarbon fuel sources. The model is developed as a function of current density and H₂S concentration in the fuel. To the best of authors' knowledge, it is the first model that accounts for impact of current density on sulfur poisoning of cells supplied with hydrocarbon-based fuels. Proposed model has wide validity over a range of parameters and is consistent across multiple studies by different independent groups. Simulations using the degradation-based model illustrated that SOFCs voltage drops significantly in the first 1500 hours of operation. After that, cells exhibit a slower degradation rate. The present analysis allowed us to discover the reason for various degradation rate values reported in literature for conventional SOFCs. In fact, the reason why literature reports very different degradation rates, is that literature is inconsistent in definition of how degradation rate is calculated. In the literature, the degradation rate has been calculated as the slope of voltage versus time plot with the unit of voltage drop percentage per 1000 hours operation. Due to the nonlinear profile of voltage over time, degradation rate magnitude depends on the magnitude of time steps selected to calculate the curve's slope. To avoid this issue, instantaneous rate of performance drop is used in the present work. According to a sensitivity analysis, the current density has the highest impact on degradation rate compared to other operating factors, while temperature and hydrogen partial pressure affect SOFCs performance less. The findings demonstrated that a cell running at lower current density performs better in long-term in terms of total average energy delivered per year, even though initially it generates less power than if it had a higher current density. This is because of the dominant and devastating impact of large current densities on the long-term performance of SOFCs, as explained by the model.

Keywords: degradation rate, long-term performance, optimal operation, solid oxide fuel cells, SOFCs

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Nureni O. Adeboye, Dawud A. Agunbiade

Abstract:

This research attempts to investigate the effects of heteroscedasticity and periodicity in a Panel Data Regression Model (PDRM) by extending previous works on balanced panel data estimation within the context of fitting PDRM for Banks audit fee. The estimation of such model was achieved through the derivation of Joint Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for homoscedasticity and zero-serial correlation, a conditional LM test for zero serial correlation given heteroscedasticity of varying degrees as well as conditional LM test for homoscedasticity given first order positive serial correlation via a two-way error component model. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for 81 different variations, of which its design assumed a uniform distribution under a linear heteroscedasticity function. Each of the variation was iterated 1000 times and the assessment of the three estimators considered are based on Variance, Absolute bias (ABIAS), Mean square error (MSE) and the Root Mean Square (RMSE) of parameters estimates. Eighteen different models at different specified conditions were fitted, and the best-fitted model is that of within estimator when heteroscedasticity is severe at either zero or positive serial correlation value. LM test results showed that the tests have good size and power as all the three tests are significant at 5% for the specified linear form of heteroscedasticity function which established the facts that Banks operations are severely heteroscedastic in nature with little or no periodicity effects.

Keywords: audit fee lagrange multiplier test, heteroscedasticity, lagrange multiplier test, Monte-Carlo scheme, periodicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Almagul Assainova , Dariya Abykenova, Liudmila Goncharenko, Sergey Sybachin, Saule Rakhimova, Abay Aman

Abstract:

The recognition of a handwritten Kazakh text is a relevant objective today for the digitization of materials. The study presents a model of a hybrid neural network for handwriting recognition, which includes a convolutional neural network and a multi-layer perceptron. Each network includes 1024 input neurons and 42 output neurons. The model is implemented in the program, written in the Python programming language using the EMNIST database, NumPy, Keras, and Tensorflow modules. The neural network training of such specific letters of the Kazakh alphabet as ә, ғ, қ, ң, ө, ұ, ү, h, і was conducted. The neural network model and the program created on its basis can be used in electronic document management systems to digitize the Kazakh text.

Keywords: handwriting recognition system, image recognition, Kazakh font, machine learning, neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 262