Search results for: generalised linear model
15545 Interoperability Model Design of Smart Grid Power System
Authors: Seon-Hack Hong, Tae-Il Choi
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Interoperability is defined as systems, components, and devices developed by different entities smoothly exchanging information and functioning organically without mutual consultation, being able to communicate with each other and computer systems of the same type or different types, and exchanging information or the ability of two or more systems to exchange information and use the information exchanged without extra effort. Insufficiencies such as duplication of functions when developing systems and applications due to lack of interoperability in the electric power system and low efficiency due to a lack of mutual information transmission system between the inside of the application program and the design is improved, and the seamless linkage of newly developed systems is improved. Since it is necessary to secure interoperability for this purpose, we designed the smart grid-based interoperability standard model in this paper.Keywords: interoperability, power system, common information model, SCADA, IEEE2030, Zephyr
Procedia PDF Downloads 12415544 Seismic Fragility for Sliding Failure of Weir Structure Considering the Process of Concrete Aging
Authors: HoYoung Son, Ki Young Kim, Woo Young Jung
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This study investigated the change of weir structure performances when durability of concrete, which is the main material of weir structure, decreased due to their aging by mean of seismic fragility analysis. In the analysis, it was assumed that the elastic modulus of concrete was reduced by 10% in order to account for their aged deterioration. Additionally, the analysis of seismic fragility was based on Monte Carlo Simulation method combined with a 2D nonlinear finite element in ABAQUS platform with the consideration of deterioration of concrete. Finally, the comparison of seismic fragility of model pre- and post-deterioration was made to study the performance of weir. Results show that the probability of failure in moderate damage for deteriorated model was found to be larger than pre-deterioration model when peak ground acceleration (PGA) passed 0.4 g.Keywords: weir, FEM, concrete, fragility, aging
Procedia PDF Downloads 42515543 A Novel Model for Saturation Velocity Region of Graphene Nanoribbon Transistor
Authors: Mohsen Khaledian, Razali Ismail, Mehdi Saeidmanesh, Mahdiar Hosseinghadiry
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A semi-analytical model for impact ionization coefficient of graphene nanoribbon (GNR) is presented. The model is derived by calculating probability of electrons reaching ionization threshold energy Et and the distance traveled by electron gaining Et. In addition, ionization threshold energy is semi-analytically modeled for GNR. We justify our assumptions using analytic modeling and comparison with simulation results. Gaussian simulator together with analytical modeling is used in order to calculate ionization threshold energy and Kinetic Monte Carlo is employed to calculate ionization coefficient and verify the analytical results. Finally, the profile of ionization is presented using the proposed models and simulation and the results are compared with that of silicon.Keywords: nanostructures, electronic transport, semiconductor modeling, systems engineering
Procedia PDF Downloads 47315542 Simulation of Laser Structuring by Three Dimensional Heat Transfer Model
Authors: Bassim Shaheen Bachy, Jörg Franke
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In this study, a three dimensional numerical heat transfer model has been used to simulate the laser structuring of polymer substrate material in the Three-Dimensional Molded Interconnect Device (3D MID) which is used in the advanced multi-functional applications. A finite element method (FEM) transient thermal analysis is performed using APDL (ANSYS Parametric Design Language) provided by ANSYS. In this model, the effect of surface heat source was modeled with Gaussian distribution, also the effect of the mixed boundary conditions which consist of convection and radiation heat transfers have been considered in this analysis. The model provides a full description of the temperature distribution, as well as calculates the depth and the width of the groove upon material removal at different set of laser parameters such as laser power and laser speed. This study also includes the experimental procedure to study the effect of laser parameters on the depth and width of the removal groove metal as verification to the modeled results. Good agreement between the experimental and the model results is achieved for a wide range of laser powers. It is found that the quality of the laser structure process is affected by the laser scan speed and laser power. For a high laser structured quality, it is suggested to use laser with high speed and moderate to high laser power.Keywords: laser structuring, simulation, finite element analysis, thermal modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 34915541 Superconductor-Insulator Transition in Disordered Spin-1/2 Systems
Authors: E. Cuevas, M. Feigel'man, L. Ioffe, M. Mezard
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The origin of continuous energy spectrum in large disordered interacting quantum systems is one of the key unsolved problems in quantum physics. While small quantum systems with discrete energy levels are noiseless and stay coherent forever in the absence of any coupling to external world, most large-scale quantum systems are able to produce thermal bath, thermal transport and excitation decay. This intrinsic decoherence is manifested by a broadening of energy levels which acquire a finite width. The important question is: What is the driving force and mechanism of transition(s) between two different types of many-body systems - with and without decoherence and thermal transport? Here, we address this question via two complementary approaches applied to the same model of quantum spin-1/2 system with XY-type exchange interaction and random transverse field. Namely, we develop analytical theory for this spin model on a Bethe lattice and implement numerical study of exact level statistics for the same spin model on random graph. This spin model is relevant to the study of pseudogaped superconductivity and S-I transition in some amorphous materials.Keywords: strongly correlated electrons, quantum phase transitions, superconductor, insulator
Procedia PDF Downloads 58215540 Modelling and Optimisation of Floating Drum Biogas Reactor
Authors: L. Rakesh, T. Y. Heblekar
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This study entails the development and optimization of a mathematical model for a floating drum biogas reactor from first principles using thermal and empirical considerations. The model was derived on the basis of mass conservation, lumped mass heat transfer formulations and empirical biogas formation laws. The treatment leads to a system of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations whose solution mapped four-time independent controllable parameters to five output variables which adequately serve to describe the reactor performance. These equations were solved numerically using fourth order Runge-Kutta method for a range of input parameter values. Using the data so obtained an Artificial Neural Network with a single hidden layer was trained using Levenberg-Marquardt Damped Least Squares (DLS) algorithm. This network was then fine-tuned for optimal mapping by varying hidden layer size. This fast forward model was then employed as a health score generator in the Bacterial Foraging Optimization code. The optimal operating state of the simplified Biogas reactor was thus obtained.Keywords: biogas, floating drum reactor, neural network model, optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 14315539 Learning Aid for Kids in India
Authors: Prabir Mukhopadhyay, Atul Kohale
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Going to school for Indian kids is a panic situation. Many of them are unable to adjust themselves to the confinement of the school building and this problem is compounded by other factors like unknown people in the vicinity, absence of either parents etc. This project aims at addressing these issues by exposing the kids at home to the learning environment. The purpose is to design a physical model with interfaces at each surface. The model would be like a cube with interactive surfaces where the child would be able to draw, paint, complete a picture and do such fun activities.Keywords: interface, kids, play, computer systems engineering
Procedia PDF Downloads 21315538 Bioinformatic Approaches in Population Genetics and Phylogenetic Studies
Authors: Masoud Sheidai
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Biologists with a special field of population genetics and phylogeny have different research tasks such as populations’ genetic variability and divergence, species relatedness, the evolution of genetic and morphological characters, and identification of DNA SNPs with adaptive potential. To tackle these problems and reach a concise conclusion, they must use the proper and efficient statistical and bioinformatic methods as well as suitable genetic and morphological characteristics. In recent years application of different bioinformatic and statistical methods, which are based on various well-documented assumptions, are the proper analytical tools in the hands of researchers. The species delineation is usually carried out with the use of different clustering methods like K-means clustering based on proper distance measures according to the studied features of organisms. A well-defined species are assumed to be separated from the other taxa by molecular barcodes. The species relationships are studied by using molecular markers, which are analyzed by different analytical methods like multidimensional scaling (MDS) and principal coordinate analysis (PCoA). The species population structuring and genetic divergence are usually investigated by PCoA and PCA methods and a network diagram. These are based on bootstrapping of data. The Association of different genes and DNA sequences to ecological and geographical variables is determined by LFMM (Latent factor mixed model) and redundancy analysis (RDA), which are based on Bayesian and distance methods. Molecular and morphological differentiating characters in the studied species may be identified by linear discriminant analysis (DA) and discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC). We shall illustrate these methods and related conclusions by giving examples from different edible and medicinal plant species.Keywords: GWAS analysis, K-Means clustering, LFMM, multidimensional scaling, redundancy analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 12415537 SEMCPRA-Sar-Esembled Model for Climate Prediction in Remote Area
Authors: Kamalpreet Kaur, Renu Dhir
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Climate prediction is an essential component of climate research, which helps evaluate possible effects on economies, communities, and ecosystems. Climate prediction involves short-term weather prediction, seasonal prediction, and long-term climate change prediction. Climate prediction can use the information gathered from satellites, ground-based stations, and ocean buoys, among other sources. The paper's four architectures, such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception, have been combined using an ensemble approach for overall performance and robustness. An ensemble of different models makes a prediction, and the majority vote determines the final prediction. The various architectures such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception efficiently classify the dataset RSI-CB256, which contains satellite images into cloudy and non-cloudy. The generated ensembled S-E model (Sar-ensembled model) provides an accuracy of 99.25%.Keywords: climate, satellite images, prediction, classification
Procedia PDF Downloads 7415536 Using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Controller for Diabetes Mellitus
Authors: Nafiseh Mollaei, Reihaneh Kardehi Moghaddam
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In case of Diabetes Mellitus the controlling of insulin is very difficult. This illness is an incurable disease affecting millions of people worldwide. Glucose is a sugar which provides energy to the cells. Insulin is a hormone which supports the absorption of glucose. Fuzzy control strategy is attractive for glucose control because it mimics the first and second phase responses that the pancreas beta cells use to control glucose. We propose two control algorithms a type-1 fuzzy controller and an interval type-2 fuzzy method for the insulin infusion. The closed loop system has been simulated for different patients with different parameters, in present of the food intake disturbance and it has been shown that the blood glucose concentrations at a normoglycemic level of 110 mg/dl in the reasonable amount of time. This paper deals with type 1 diabetes as a nonlinear model, which has been simulated in MATLAB-SIMULINK environment. The novel model, termed the Augmented Minimal Model is used in the simulations. There are some uncertainties in this model due to factors such as blood glucose, daily meals or sudden stress. In addition to eliminate the effects of uncertainty, different control methods may be utilized. In this article, fuzzy controller performance were assessed in terms of its ability to track a normoglycemic set point (110 mg/dl) in response to a [0-10] g meal disturbance. Finally, the development reported in this paper is supposed to simplify the insulin delivery, so increasing the quality of life of the patient.Keywords: interval type-2, fuzzy controller, minimal augmented model, uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 42815535 Optimal Rotor Design of an 150kW-Class IPMSM through the 3D Voltage-Inductance Map Analysis Method
Authors: Eung-Seok Park, Tae-Chul Jeong, Hyun-Jong Park, Hyun-Woo Jun, Dong-Woo Kang, Ju Lee
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This presents a methodology to determine detail design directions of an 150kW-class IPMSM (interior permanent magnet synchronous motor) and its detail design. The basic design of the stator and rotor was conducted. After dividing the designed models into the best cases and the worst cases based on rotor shape parameters, Sensitivity analysis and 3D Voltage-Inductance Map (3D EL-Map) parameters were analyzed. Then, the design direction for the final model was predicted. Based on the prediction, the final model was extracted with Trend analysis. Lastly, the final model was validated with experiments.Keywords: PMSM, optimal design, rotor design, voltage-inductance map
Procedia PDF Downloads 67415534 The Effects of Seasonal Variation on the Microbial-N Flow to the Small Intestine and Prediction of Feed Intake in Grazing Karayaka Sheep
Authors: Mustafa Salman, Nurcan Cetinkaya, Zehra Selcuk, Bugra Genc
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The objectives of the present study were to estimate the microbial-N flow to the small intestine and to predict the digestible organic matter intake (DOMI) in grazing Karayaka sheep based on urinary excretion of purine derivatives (xanthine, hypoxanthine, uric acid, and allantoin) by the use of spot urine sampling under field conditions. In the trial, 10 Karayaka sheep from 2 to 3 years of age were used. The animals were grazed in a pasture for ten months and fed with concentrate and vetch plus oat hay for the other two months (January and February) indoors. Highly significant linear and cubic relationships (P<0.001) were found among months for purine derivatives index, purine derivatives excretion, purine derivatives absorption, microbial-N and DOMI. Through urine sampling and the determination of levels of excreted urinary PD and Purine Derivatives / Creatinine ratio (PDC index), microbial-N values were estimated and they indicated that the protein nutrition of the sheep was insufficient. In conclusion, the prediction of protein nutrition of sheep under the field conditions may be possible with the use of spot urine sampling, urinary excreted PD and PDC index. The mean purine derivative levels in spot urine samples from sheep were highest in June, July and October. Protein nutrition of pastured sheep may be affected by weather changes, including rainfall. Spot urine sampling may useful in modeling the feed consumption of pasturing sheep. However, further studies are required under different field conditions with different breeds of sheep to develop spot urine sampling as a model.Keywords: Karayaka sheep, spot sampling, urinary purine derivatives, PDC index, microbial-N, feed intake
Procedia PDF Downloads 52915533 Research on the Spatio-Temporal Evolution Pattern of Traffic Dominance in Shaanxi Province
Authors: Leng Jian-Wei, Wang Lai-Jun, Li Ye
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In order to measure and analyze the transportation situation within the counties of Shaanxi province over a certain period of time and to promote the province's future transportation planning and development, this paper proposes a reasonable layout plan and compares model rationality. The study uses entropy weight method to measure the transportation advantages of 107 counties in Shaanxi province from three dimensions: road network density, trunk line influence and location advantage in 2013 and 2021, and applies spatial autocorrelation analysis method to analyze the spatial layout and development trend of county-level transportation, and conducts ordinary least square (OLS)regression on transportation impact factors and other influencing factors. The paper also compares the regression fitting degree of the Geographically weighted regression(GWR) model and the OLS model. The results show that spatially, the transportation advantages of Shaanxi province generally show a decreasing trend from the Weihe Plain to the surrounding areas and mainly exhibit high-high clustering phenomenon. Temporally, transportation advantages show an overall upward trend, and the phenomenon of spatial imbalance gradually decreases. People's travel demands have changed to some extent, and the demand for rapid transportation has increased overall. The GWR model regression fitting degree of transportation advantages is 0.74, which is higher than the OLS regression model's fitting degree of 0.64. Based on the evolution of transportation advantages, it is predicted that this trend will continue for a period of time in the future. To improve the transportation advantages of Shaanxi province increasing the layout of rapid transportation can effectively enhance the transportation advantages of Shaanxi province. When analyzing spatial heterogeneity, geographic factors should be considered to establish a more reliable modelKeywords: traffic dominance, GWR model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, temporal and spatial evolution
Procedia PDF Downloads 8915532 Approaches to Reduce the Complexity of Mathematical Models for the Operational Optimization of Large-Scale Virtual Power Plants in Public Energy Supply
Authors: Thomas Weber, Nina Strobel, Thomas Kohne, Eberhard Abele
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In context of the energy transition in Germany, the importance of so-called virtual power plants in the energy supply continues to increase. The progressive dismantling of the large power plants and the ongoing construction of many new decentralized plants result in great potential for optimization through synergies between the individual plants. These potentials can be exploited by mathematical optimization algorithms to calculate the optimal application planning of decentralized power and heat generators and storage systems. This also includes linear or linear mixed integer optimization. In this paper, procedures for reducing the number of decision variables to be calculated are explained and validated. On the one hand, this includes combining n similar installation types into one aggregated unit. This aggregated unit is described by the same constraints and target function terms as a single plant. This reduces the number of decision variables per time step and the complexity of the problem to be solved by a factor of n. The exact operating mode of the individual plants can then be calculated in a second optimization in such a way that the output of the individual plants corresponds to the calculated output of the aggregated unit. Another way to reduce the number of decision variables in an optimization problem is to reduce the number of time steps to be calculated. This is useful if a high temporal resolution is not necessary for all time steps. For example, the volatility or the forecast quality of environmental parameters may justify a high or low temporal resolution of the optimization. Both approaches are examined for the resulting calculation time as well as for optimality. Several optimization models for virtual power plants (combined heat and power plants, heat storage, power storage, gas turbine) with different numbers of plants are used as a reference for the investigation of both processes with regard to calculation duration and optimality.Keywords: CHP, Energy 4.0, energy storage, MILP, optimization, virtual power plant
Procedia PDF Downloads 17815531 Dynamic Correlations and Portfolio Optimization between Islamic and Conventional Equity Indexes: A Vine Copula-Based Approach
Authors: Imen Dhaou
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This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 25615530 Influence of Model Hydrometeor Form on Probability of Discharge Initiation from Artificial Charged Water Aerosol Cloud
Authors: A. G. Temnikov, O. S. Belova, L. L. Chernensky, T. K. Gerastenok, N. Y. Lysov, A. V. Orlov, D. S. Zhuravkova
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Hypothesis of the lightning initiation on the arrays of large hydrometeors are in the consideration. There is no agreement about the form the hydrometeors that could be the best for the lightning initiation from the thundercloud. Artificial charged water aerosol clouds of the positive or negative polarity could help investigate the possible influence of the hydrometeor form on the peculiarities and the probability of the lightning discharge initiation between the thundercloud and the ground. Artificial charged aerosol clouds that could create the electric field strength in the range of 5-6 kV/cm to 16-18 kV/cm have been used in experiments. The array of the model hydrometeors of the volume and plate form has been disposed near the bottom cloud boundary. It was established that the different kinds of the discharge could be initiated in the presence of the model hydrometeors array – from the cloud discharges up to the diffuse and channel discharges between the charged cloud and the ground. It was found that the form of the model hydrometeors could significantly influence the channel discharge initiation from the artificial charged aerosol cloud of the negative or positive polarity correspondingly. Analysis and generalization of the experimental results have shown that the maximal probability of the channel discharge initiation and propagation stimulation has been observed for the artificial charged cloud of the positive polarity when the arrays of the model hydrometeors of the cylinder revolution form have been used. At the same time, for the artificial charged clouds of the negative polarity, application of the model hydrometeor array of the plate rhombus form has provided the maximal probability of the channel discharge formation between the charged cloud and the ground. The established influence of the form of the model hydrometeors on the channel discharge initiation and from the artificial charged water aerosol cloud and its following successful propagation has been related with the different character of the positive and negative streamer and volume leader development on the model hydrometeors array being near the bottom boundary of the charged cloud. The received experimental results have shown the possibly important role of the form of the large hail particles precipitated in thundercloud on the discharge initiation.Keywords: cloud and channel discharges, hydrometeor form, lightning initiation, negative and positive artificial charged aerosol cloud
Procedia PDF Downloads 31615529 Model-Based Automotive Partitioning and Mapping for Embedded Multicore Systems
Authors: Robert Höttger, Lukas Krawczyk, Burkhard Igel
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This paper introduces novel approaches to partitioning and mapping in terms of model-based embedded multicore system engineering and further discusses benefits, industrial relevance and features in common with existing approaches. In order to assess and evaluate results, both approaches have been applied to a real industrial application as well as to various prototypical demonstrative applications, that have been developed and implemented for different purposes. Evaluations show, that such applications improve significantly according to performance, energy efficiency, meeting timing constraints and covering maintaining issues by using the AMALTHEA platform and the implemented approaches. Further- more, the model-based design provides an open, expandable, platform independent and scalable exchange format between OEMs, suppliers and developers on different levels. Our proposed mechanisms provide meaningful multicore system utilization since load balancing by means of partitioning and mapping is effectively performed with regard to the modeled systems including hardware, software, operating system, scheduling, constraints, configuration and more data.Keywords: partitioning, mapping, distributed systems, scheduling, embedded multicore systems, model-based, system analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 62015528 A Location Routing Model for the Logistic System in the Mining Collection Centers of the Northern Region of Boyacá-Colombia
Authors: Erika Ruíz, Luis Amaya, Diego Carreño
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The main objective of this study is to design a mathematical model for the logistics of mining collection centers in the northern region of the department of Boyacá (Colombia), determining the structure that facilitates the flow of products along the supply chain. In order to achieve this, it is necessary to define a suitable design of the distribution network, taking into account the products, customer’s characteristics and the availability of information. Likewise, some other aspects must be defined, such as number and capacity of collection centers to establish, routes that must be taken to deliver products to the customers, among others. This research will use one of the operation research problems, which is used in the design of distribution networks known as Location Routing Problem (LRP).Keywords: location routing problem, logistic, mining collection, model
Procedia PDF Downloads 21715527 Effect of Education Based-on the Health Belief Model on Preventive Behaviors of Exposure to Secondhand Smoke among Women
Authors: Arezoo Fallahi
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Introduction: Exposure to second-hand smoke is an important global health problem and threatens the health of people, especially children and women. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of education based on the Health Belief Model on preventive behaviors of exposure to second-hand smoke in women. Materials and Methods: This experimental study was performed in 2022 in Sanandaj, west of Iran. Seventy-four people were selected by simple random sampling and divided into an intervention group (37 people) and a control group (37 people). Data collection tools included demographic characteristics and a second-hand smoke exposure questionnaire based on the Health Beliefs Model. The training in the intervention group was conducted in three one-hour sessions in the comprehensive health service centers in the form of lectures, pamphlets, and group discussions. Data were analyzed using SPSS software version 21 and statistical tests such as correlation, paired t-test, and independent t-test. Results: The intervention and control groups were homogeneous before education. They were similar in terms of mean scores of the Health Belief Model. However, after an educational intervention, some of the scores increased, including the mean perceived sensitivity score (from 17.62±2.86 to 19.75±1.23), perceived severity score (28.40±4.45 to 31.64±2), perceived benefits score (27.27±4.89 to 31.94±2.17), practice score (32.64±4.68 to 36.91±2.32) perceived barriers from 26.62±5.16 to 31.29±3.34, guide for external action (from 17.70±3.99 to 22/89 ±1.67), guide for internal action from (16.59±2.95 to 1.03±18.75), and self-efficacy (from 19.83 ±3.99 to 23.37±1.43) (P <0.05). Conclusion: The educational intervention designed based on the Health Belief Model in women was effective in performing preventive behaviors against exposure to second-hand smoke.Keywords: education, women, exposure to secondhand smoke, health belief model
Procedia PDF Downloads 7215526 Hydrodynamics and Heat Transfer Characteristics of a Solar Thermochemical Fluidized Bed Reactor
Authors: Selvan Bellan, Koji Matsubara, Nobuyuki Gokon, Tatsuya Kodama, Hyun Seok-Cho
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In concentrated solar thermal industry, fluidized-bed technology has been used to produce hydrogen by thermochemical two step water splitting cycles, and synthetic gas by gasification of coal coke. Recently, couple of fluidized bed reactors have been developed and tested at Niigata University, Japan, for two-step thermochemical water splitting cycles and coal coke gasification using Xe light, solar simulator. The hydrodynamic behavior of the gas-solid flow plays a vital role in the aforementioned fluidized bed reactors. Thus, in order to study the dynamics of dense gas-solid flow, a CFD-DEM model has been developed; in which the contact forces between the particles have been calculated by the spring-dashpot model, based on the soft-sphere method. Heat transfer and hydrodynamics of a solar thermochemical fluidized bed reactor filled with ceria particles have been studied numerically and experimentally for beam-down solar concentrating system. An experimental visualization of particles circulation pattern and mixing of two-tower fluidized bed system has been presented. Simulation results have been compared with experimental data to validate the CFD-DEM model. Results indicate that the model can predict the particle-fluid flow of the two-tower fluidized bed reactor. Using this model, the key operating parameters can be optimized.Keywords: solar reactor, CFD-DEM modeling, fluidized bed, beam-down solar concentrating system
Procedia PDF Downloads 19715525 Mine Project Evaluations in the Rising of Uncertainty: Real Options Analysis
Authors: I. Inthanongsone, C. Drebenstedt, J. C. Bongaerts, P. Sontamino
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The major concern in evaluating the value of mining projects related to the deficiency of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method. This method does not take uncertainties into account and, hence it does not allow for an economic assessment of managerial flexibility and operational adaptability, which are increasingly determining long-term corporate success. Such an assessment can be performed with the real options valuation (ROV) approach, since it allows for a comparative evaluation of unforeseen uncertainties in a project life cycle. This paper presents an economic evaluation model for open pit mining projects based on real options valuation approach. Uncertainties in the model are caused by metal prices and cost uncertainties and the system dynamics (SD) modeling method is used to structure and solve the real options model. The model is applied to a case study. It can be shown that that managerial flexibility reacting to uncertainties may create additional value to a mining project in comparison to the outcomes of a DCF method. One important insight for management dealing with uncertainty is seen in choosing the optimal time to exercise strategic options.Keywords: DCF methods, ROV approach, system dynamics modeling methods, uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 50115524 Factors Influencing the Choice of Multi-Month Drug Dispensing Model Amongst Children and Adolescents Living with HIV (C/ALHIV) in Eswatini
Authors: Mbuso Siwela
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Background: The Sub-Saharan Africa region has the greatest number of people eligible to receive antiretroviral treatment (ART). Multi-month Drug dispensing (MMD) of antiretroviral treatment (ART) aims to reduce patient-related barriers to access long-term treatment and improve health system efficiency. In Eswatini, however, few children and adolescents are on MMD. Young Heroes is implementing an HIV program that aims to avert new HIV infections in children and youth and improve treatment outcomes for children and adolescents living with HIV (C/ALHIV: 0-19 Years) and OVC caregivers with HIV prevention and impact mitigation interventions that prevent new HIV infections and reduce vulnerability. Aim of the study: The study aimed to ascertain factors that are associated with the assignment of the MMD model on C/ALHIVs. Methodology: The project provides treatment adherence support through well-trained community cadres (Home Visitors - HVs) at both community and health facility levels. During door-to-door visits, HVs track all C/ALHIV enrolled in the project monthly and refer any who might have stopped or interrupted treatment. C/ALHIV with unsuppressed viral load is supported through case conferencing and teen clubs. A quantitative cross-sectional analysis was conducted using STATA for children and adolescents living with HIV enrolled in the project. Bivariate analysis was conducted, and the Logistic Regression model was used to ascertain the effects of duration on ART on the choice of MMD model. Results: Data for 544 C/ALHIV (0-19 Years) was analyzed in STATA. Results show a strong association between (duration on ART, Age, being in teen club) and enrolment in an MMD model. Duration on ART is a major predictor for the choice of MMD model at (95% CI: 0.0012905 – 0.0039812; P = <0.0001). C/ALHIV who have been on ART for less than a year are less likely to be on MMD. C/ALHIVs who are 1 or more years on ART are more likely to be in 3 months dispensing, while those who are 5 years or more are most likely to be in 6 months model.Keywords: C/ALHIV, OVC, HIV, treatment
Procedia PDF Downloads 4115523 Synthesis of Filtering in Stochastic Systems on Continuous-Time Memory Observations in the Presence of Anomalous Noises
Authors: S. Rozhkova, O. Rozhkova, A. Harlova, V. Lasukov
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We have conducted the optimal synthesis of root-mean-squared objective filter to estimate the state vector in the case if within the observation channel with memory the anomalous noises with unknown mathematical expectation are complement in the function of the regular noises. The synthesis has been carried out for linear stochastic systems of continuous-time.Keywords: mathematical expectation, filtration, anomalous noise, memory
Procedia PDF Downloads 24715522 Assessing Readiness Model for Business Intelligence Implementation in Organization
Authors: Abdul Razak Rahmat, Azizah Ahmad, Azman Ta’aa
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The deployment of Business Intelligence (BI) for organization at the beginning phase is very crucial. Results from the previous studies found that more than half of the BI project fails to meet the objective even though a lot money are spent. Based on that problem, the readiness level of BI for the organization is important to identify in order to reduce the risk before the actual BI project is implemented. In this paper, rigorous literature review on the aspect success factors such as Critical Success Factors (CSFs), Readiness Factors (RFs), Success Factors (SFs), are discussed by different authors. The paper also adopted a few models from previous study as a guide for the assessment of BI readiness. The expected finding from this research is the Business Intelligent Readiness Model (BiRM) as a guild before implement the BI system.Keywords: business intelligence readiness model, business intelligence for higher learning, BI readiness factors, BI critical success factors(CSF)
Procedia PDF Downloads 37115521 Assessing Available Power from a Renewable Energy Source in the Southern Hemisphere using Anisotropic Model
Authors: Asowata Osamede, Trudy Sutherland
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The purpose of this paper is to assess the available power from a Renewable Energy Source (off-grid photovoltaic (PV) panel) in the Southern Hemisphere using anisotropic model. Direct solar radiation is the driving force in photovoltaics. In a basic PV panels in the Southern Hemisphere, Power conversion is eminent, and this is achieved by the PV cells converting solar energy into electrical energy. In this research, the results was determined for a 6 month period from September 2022 through February 2023. Preliminary results, which include Normal Probability plot, data analysis - R2 value, effective conversion-time per week and work-time per day, indicate a favorably comparison between the empirical results and the simulation results.Keywords: power-conversion, mathematical model, PV panels, DC-DC converters, direct solar radiation
Procedia PDF Downloads 8515520 Knowledge Sharing Model Based on Individual and Organizational Factors Related to Faculty Members of University
Authors: Mitra Sadoughi
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This study presents the knowledge-sharing model based on individual and organizational factors related to faculty members. To achieve this goal, individual and organizational factors were presented through qualitative research in the form of open codes, axial, and selective observations; then, the final model was obtained using structural equation model. Participants included 1,719 faculty members of the Azad Universities, Mazandaran Province, Region 3. The samples related to the qualitative survey included 25 faculty members experienced at teaching and the samples related to the quantitative survey included 326 faculty members selected by multistage cluster sampling. A 72-item questionnaire was used to measure the quantitative variables. The reliability of the questionnaire was 0.93. Its content and face validity was determined with the help of faculty members, consultants, and other experts. For the analysis of quantitative data obtained from structural model and regression, SPSS and LISREL were used. The results showed that the status of knowledge sharing is moderate in the universities. Individual factors influencing knowledge sharing included the sharing of educational materials, perception, confidence and knowledge self-efficiency, and organizational factors influencing knowledge sharing included structural social capital, cognitive social capital, social capital relations, organizational communication, organizational structure, organizational culture, IT infrastructure and systems of rewards. Finally, it was found that the contribution of individual factors on knowledge sharing was more than organizational factors; therefore, a model was presented in which contribution of individual and organizational factors were determined.Keywords: knowledge sharing, social capital, organizational communication, knowledge self-efficiency, perception, trust, organizational culture
Procedia PDF Downloads 39215519 A Finite Element Model to Study the Behaviour of Corroded Reinforced Concrete Beams Repaired with near Surface Mounted Technique
Authors: B. Almassri, F. Almahmoud, R. Francois
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Near surface mounted reinforcement (NSM) technique is one of the promising techniques used nowadays to strengthen reinforced concrete (RC) structures. In the NSM technique, the Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) rods are placed inside pre-cut grooves and are bonded to the concrete with epoxy adhesive. This paper studies the non-classical mode of failure ‘the separation of concrete cover’ according to experimental and numerical FE modelling results. Experimental results and numerical modelling results of a 3D finite element (FE) model using the commercial software Abaqus and 2D FE model FEMIX were obtained on two beams, one corroded (25 years of corrosion procedure) and one control (A1CL3-R and A1T-R) were each repaired in bending using NSM CFRP rod and were then tested up to failure. The results showed that the NSM technique increased the overall capacity of control and corroded beams despite a non-classical mode of failure with separation of the concrete cover occurring in the corroded beam due to damage induced by corrosion. Another FE model used external steel stirrups around the repaired corroded beam A1CL3-R which failed with the separation of concrete cover, this model showed a change in the mode of failure form a non-classical mode of failure by the separation of concrete cover to the same mode of failure of the repaired control beam by the crushing of compressed concrete.Keywords: corrosion, repair, Reinforced Concrete, FEM, CFRP, FEMIX
Procedia PDF Downloads 16415518 A Model of Applied Psychology Research Defining Community Participation and Collective Identity as a Major Asset for Strategic Planning and Political Decision: The Project SIA (Social Inclusion through Accessibility)
Authors: Rui Serôdio, Alexandra Serra, José Albino Lima, Luísa Catita, Paula Lopes
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We will present the outline of the Project SIA (Social Inclusion through Accessibility) focusing in one of its core components: how our applied research model contributes to define community participation as a pillar for strategic and political agenda amongst local authorities. Project ISA, supported by EU regional funding, was design as part of a broader model developed by SIMLab–Social Inclusion Monitoring Laboratory, in which the relation University-Community is a core element. The project illustrates how University of Porto developed a large scale project of applied psychology research in a close partnership with 18 municipalities that cover almost all regions of Portugal, and with a private architecture enterprise, specialized in inclusive accessibility and “design for all”. Three fundamental goals were defined: (1) creation of a model that would promote the effective civic participation of local citizens; (2) the “voice” of such participation should be both individual and collective; (3) the scientific and technical framework should serve as one of the bases for political decision on inclusive accessibility local planning. The two main studies were run in a standardized model across all municipalities and the samples of the three modalities of community participation were the following: individual participation based on 543 semi-structured interviews and 6373 inquiries; collective participation based on group session with 302 local citizens. We present some of the broader findings of Project SIA and discuss how they relate to our applied research model.Keywords: applied psychology, collective identity, community participation, inclusive accessibility
Procedia PDF Downloads 44715517 Multi-Atlas Segmentation Based on Dynamic Energy Model: Application to Brain MR Images
Authors: Jie Huo, Jonathan Wu
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Segmentation of anatomical structures in medical images is essential for scientific inquiry into the complex relationships between biological structure and clinical diagnosis, treatment and assessment. As a method of incorporating the prior knowledge and the anatomical structure similarity between a target image and atlases, multi-atlas segmentation has been successfully applied in segmenting a variety of medical images, including the brain, cardiac, and abdominal images. The basic idea of multi-atlas segmentation is to transfer the labels in atlases to the coordinate of the target image by matching the target patch to the atlas patch in the neighborhood. However, this technique is limited by the pairwise registration between target image and atlases. In this paper, a novel multi-atlas segmentation approach is proposed by introducing a dynamic energy model. First, the target is mapped to each atlas image by minimizing the dynamic energy function, then the segmentation of target image is generated by weighted fusion based on the energy. The method is tested on MICCAI 2012 Multi-Atlas Labeling Challenge dataset which includes 20 target images and 15 atlases images. The paper also analyzes the influence of different parameters of the dynamic energy model on the segmentation accuracy and measures the dice coefficient by using different feature terms with the energy model. The highest mean dice coefficient obtained with the proposed method is 0.861, which is competitive compared with the recently published method.Keywords: brain MRI segmentation, dynamic energy model, multi-atlas segmentation, energy minimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 33615516 IOT Based Process Model for Heart Monitoring Process
Authors: Dalyah Y. Al-Jamal, Maryam H. Eshtaiwi, Liyakathunisa Syed
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Connecting health services with technology has a huge demand as people health situations are becoming worse day by day. In fact, engaging new technologies such as Internet of Things (IOT) into the medical services can enhance the patient care services. Specifically, patients suffering from chronic diseases such as cardiac patients need a special care and monitoring. In reality, some efforts were previously taken to automate and improve the patient monitoring systems. However, the previous efforts have some limitations and lack the real-time feature needed for chronic kind of diseases. In this paper, an improved process model for patient monitoring system specialized for cardiac patients is presented. A survey was distributed and interviews were conducted to gather the needed requirements to improve the cardiac patient monitoring system. Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) language was used to model the proposed process. In fact, the proposed system uses the IOT Technology to assist doctors to remotely monitor and follow-up with their heart patients in real-time. In order to validate the effectiveness of the proposed solution, simulation analysis was performed using Bizagi Modeler tool. Analysis results show performance improvements in the heart monitoring process. For the future, authors suggest enhancing the proposed system to cover all the chronic diseases.Keywords: IoT, process model, remote patient monitoring system, smart watch
Procedia PDF Downloads 332