Search results for: logit regression model and food security

Authors: Kasirga Yildirak, Ismail Gur

Abstract:

We propose a model to measure hail risk of an Agricultural Insurance portfolio. Hail is one of the major catastrophic event that causes big amount of loss to an insurer. Moreover, it is very hard to predict due to its strange atmospheric characteristics. We make use of parcel based claims data on apricot damage collected by the Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM). As our ultimate aim is to compute the loadings assigned to specific parcels, we build a portfolio risk model that makes use of PD and the severity of the exposures. PD is computed by Spherical-Linear and Circular –Linear regression models as the data carries coordinate information and seasonality. Severity is mapped into integer brackets so that Probability Generation Function could be employed. Individual regressions are run on each clusters estimated on different criteria. Loss distribution is constructed by Panjer Recursion technique. We also show that one risk-one crop model can easily be extended to the multi risk–multi crop model by assuming conditional independency.

Keywords: hail insurance, spherical regression, circular regression, spherical clustering

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Filippo Portera

Abstract:

Usually standard algorithms employ a loss where each error is the mere absolute difference between the true value and the prediction, in case of a regression task. In the present, we present several error weighting schemes that are a generalization of the consolidated routine. We study both a binary classification model for Support Vextor Classification and a regression net for Multylayer Perceptron. Results proves that the error is never worse than the standard procedure and several times it is better.

Keywords: loss, binary-classification, MLP, weights, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Jonardan Koner

Abstract:

The study attempts to find out the impact of infrastructural investment on state economic growth in India. It further tries to determine the magnitude of the impact of infrastructural investment on economic indicator, i.e., per-capita income (PCI) in Indian States. The study uses panel regression technique to measure the impact of infrastructural investment on per-capita income (PCI) in Indian States. Panel regression technique helps incorporate both the cross-section and time-series aspects of the dataset. In order to analyze the difference in impact of the explanatory variables on the explained variables across states, the study uses Fixed Effect Panel Regression Model. The conclusions of the study are that infrastructural investment has a desirable impact on economic development and that the impact is different for different states in India. We analyze time series data (annual frequency) ranging from 1991 to 2010. The study reveals that the infrastructural investment significantly explains the variation of economic indicators.

Keywords: infrastructural investment, multiple regression, panel regression techniques, economic development, fixed effect dummy variable model

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek

Abstract:

In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model

Procedia PDF Downloads 527

Authors: Boineelo P. Lefadola, Annemarie T. Viljoen, Gerrie E. Du Rand

Abstract:

The food service sector wastes staggering quantities of food. More than one-third of food produced today gets wasted. This is both perplexing and daunting given that not all that is wasted is accounted for when measuring food waste. It is recognised that the present food waste definitions are ambiguous and do not really take into account all food waste generated. The contention is that food waste in the food service sector can be prevented or reduced if we have an explicit food waste definition in the context of food service. This study, therefore, explores the definition of the concept of food waste in the food service sector and its implications on sustainable food waste management strategies. An ethnographic research approach was adopted. A university food service unit was selected as a research site. Data collection techniques employed included document analyses, participant observations, focus group discussions with front-of-house and back-of-house staff, and one-on-one interviews with staff on managerial positions. A grounded theory approach was applied to analyse data. The concept of food waste was constructed differently by different levels of staff. Whereas managers raised discussion from a financial perspective, BOH and FOH staff drew upon socio-cultural implications. This study lays the foundation for a harmonised definition of the concept of food waste in food service.

Keywords: food service, food waste, food waste management, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Mirko Sailio

Abstract:

Border crossing automatization reduces required human resources in handling people crossing borders. As technology replaces and augments the work done by border officers, new cyber threats arise to threaten border security. This research analyses the current cyber threat actors and their capabilities. The analysis is conducted by gathering the threat actor data from a wide range of public sources. A model for a general border automatization system is presented, and its most significant cyber-security attributes are then compared to threat actor activity and capabilities in order to predict priorities in securing such systems. Organized crime and nation-state actors present the clearest threat to border cyber-security, and additional focus is given to their motivations and activities.

Keywords: border automation, cyber-security, threat actors, border cyber-security

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Noppawan Piaseu, Surat Komindr

Abstract:

This study aimed to determine factors predicting food insecurity in older Thai women living in crowded urban communities. Through purposive sampling, 315 participants were recruited from community dwelling older women in Bangkok, Thailand. Data collection included interview from questionnaires and anthropometric measurement. Results showed that approximately half of the sample were 60-69 years old (51.1%), married (50.6%), obtained primary education (52.3%), had low family income (51.7%), lived in poor physical environment (49.9%) with normal body mass index (51.0%). Logistic regression analysis revealed that older women who were widowed/divorced/separated (OR = 1.804, 95% CI = 1.052-3.092, p = .032), who reported low family income (OR =.654, 95% CI = .523-.817, p < .001), and who had poor physical environment surrounding home (OR = 2.338, 95% CI = 1.057-5.171, p = .036) were more likely to have food insecurity. Results support that social and environmental factors are major factors predicting food insecurity in older women living in the urban community. Health professionals need to identify and monitor psychosocial, economic and environmental dimensions of food insecurity among them.

Keywords: food insecurity, older women, urban communities, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 394

Authors: Bry X., Trottier C., Mortier F., Cornu G., Verron T.

Abstract:

We address component-based regularization of a Multivariate Generalized Linear Model (MGLM). A set of random responses Y is assumed to depend, through a GLM, on a set X of explanatory variables, as well as on a set T of additional covariates. X is partitioned into R conceptually homogeneous blocks X1, ... , XR , viewed as explanatory themes. Variables in each Xr are assumed many and redundant. Thus, Generalised Linear Regression (GLR) demands regularization with respect to each Xr. By contrast, variables in T are assumed selected so as to demand no regularization. Regularization is performed searching each Xr for an appropriate number of orthogonal components that both contribute to model Y and capture relevant structural information in Xr. We propose a very general criterion to measure structural relevance (SR) of a component in a block, and show how to take SR into account within a Fisher-scoring-type algorithm in order to estimate the model. We show how to deal with mixed-type explanatory variables. The method, named THEME-SCGLR, is tested on simulated data.

Keywords: Component-Model, Fisher Scoring Algorithm, GLM, PLS Regression, SCGLR, SEER, THEME

Procedia PDF Downloads 386

Authors: Pilly Joseph Kagosi

Abstract:

The study aims at assessing challenges observed during the implementation of participatory irrigation management (PIM) approach for food security in semi-arid areas of Tanzania. Data were collected through questionnaire, PRA tools, key informants discussion, Focus Group Discussion (FGD), participant observation, and literature review. Data collected from the questionnaire was analysed using SPSS while PRA data was analysed with the help of local communities during PRA exercise. Data from other methods were analysed using content analysis. The study revealed that PIM approach has a contribution in improved food security at household level due to the involvement of communities in water management activities and decision making which enhanced the availability of water for irrigation and increased crop production. However, there were challenges observed during the implementation of the approach including; minimum participation of beneficiaries in decision-making during planning and designing stages, meaning inadequate devolution of power among scheme owners. Inadequate and lack of transparency on income expenditure in Water Utilization Associations’ (WUAs), water conflict among WUAs members, conflict between farmers and livestock keepers and conflict between WUAs leaders and village government regarding training opportunities and status; WUAs rules and regulation are not legally recognized by the National court and few farmers involved in planting trees around water sources. However, it was realized that some of the mentioned challenges were rectified by farmers themselves facilitated by government officials. The study recommends that the identified challenges need to be rectified for farmers to realize impotence of PIM approach as it was realized by other Asian countries.

Keywords: challenges, participatory approach, irrigation management, food security, semi arid areas

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hyunwoo Park, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is providing an improved mode choice model considering parameters including age grouping of prime-aged and old age. In this study, 2010 Household Travel Survey data were used and improper samples were removed through the analysis. Chosen alternative, date of birth, mode, origin code, destination code, departure time, and arrival time are considered from Household Travel Survey. By preprocessing data, travel time, travel cost, mode, and ratio of people aged 45 to 55 years, 55 to 65 years and over 65 years were calculated. After the manipulation, the mode choice model was constructed using LIMDEP by maximum likelihood estimation. A significance test was conducted for nine parameters, three age groups for three modes. Then the test was conducted again for the mode choice model with significant parameters, travel cost variable and travel time variable. As a result of the model estimation, as the age increases, the preference for the car decreases and the preference for the bus increases. This study is meaningful in that the individual and households characteristics are applied to the aggregate model.

Keywords: age grouping, aging, mode choice model, multinomial logit model

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: Endang Jati Mat Sahid, Hussain Ali Bekhet

Abstract:

Ability to supply reliable and secure electricity has been one of the crucial components of economic development for any country. Forecasting of electricity production is therefore very important for accurate investment planning of generation power plants. In this study, we aim to examine and analyze the factors that affect electricity generation. Multiple regression models were used to find the relationship between various variables and electricity production. The models will simultaneously determine the effects of the variables on electricity generation. Many variables influencing electricity generation, i.e. natural gas (NG), coal (CO), fuel oil (FO), renewable energy (RE), gross domestic product (GDP) and fuel prices (FP), were examined for Malaysia. The results demonstrate that NG, CO, and FO were the main factors influencing electricity generation growth. This study then identified a number of policy implications resulting from the empirical results.

Keywords: energy policy, energy security, electricity production, Malaysia, the regression model

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Nataliya Apanovich, Mark Wright

Abstract:

Uganda is among the poorest but fastest growing populations in the world. Its annual population growth of 3% puts additional stress through land fragmentation, agricultural intensification, and deforestation on already highly weathered tropical (Ferralsol) soils. All of these factors lead to decreased agricultural yields and consequently diminished food security. The central region of Uganda, Buganda Kingdom, is especially vulnerable in terms of food security as its high population density coupled with mismanagement of natural resources led to gradual loss of its soil and even changes in microclimate. These changes are negatively affecting livelihoods of smallholder farmers who comprise 80% of all population in Uganda. This research focuses on biochar for soil remediation in Masaka District, Uganda. If produced on a small scale from locally sourced materials, biochar can increase the quality of soil in a cost and time effective manner. To assess biochar potential, 151 smallholder farmers were interviewed on the types of crops grown, agricultural residues produced and their use, as well as on attitudes towards biochar use and its production on a small scale. The interviews were conducted in 7 sub-counties, 32 parishes, and 92 villages. The total farmland covered by the study was 606.2 kilometers. Additional information on the state of agricultural development and environmental degradation in the district was solicited from four local government officials via informal interviews. This project has been conducted in collaboration with the international agricultural research institution, Makerere University in Kampala, Uganda. The results of this research can have implications on the way farmers perceive the value of their agricultural residues and what they decide to do with them. The underlying objective is to help smallholders in degraded soils increase their agricultural yields through the use of biochar without diverting the already established uses of agricultural residues to a new soil management practice.

Keywords: agricultural residues, biochar, central Uganda, food security, soil erosion, soil remediation

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Tagel Gebrehiwot, Carolina Castilla

Abstract:

Food insecurity and child malnutrition are among the most critical issues in Ethiopia. Accordingly, different reform programs have been carried to improve household food security. The Food Security Program (FSP) (among others) was introduced to combat the persistent food insecurity problem in the country. The FSP combines a safety net component called the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) started in 2005. The goal of PSNP is to offer multi-annual transfers, such as food, cash or a combination of both to chronically food insecure households to break the cycle of food aid. Food or cash transfers are the main elements of PSNP. The case for cash transfers builds on the Sen’s analysis of ‘entitlement to food’, where he argues that restoring access to food by improving demand is a more effective and sustainable response to food insecurity than food aid. Cash-based schemes offer a greater choice of use of the transfer and can allow a greater diversity of food choice. It has been proven that dietary diversity is positively associated with the key pillars of food security. Thus, dietary diversity is considered as a measure of household’s capacity to access a variety of food groups. Studies of dietary diversity among Ethiopian rural households are somewhat rare and there is still a dearth of evidence on the impact of PSNP on household dietary diversity. In this paper, we examine the impact of the Ethiopia’s PSNP on household dietary diversity and child nutrition using panel household surveys. We employed different methodologies for identification. We exploit the exogenous increase in kebeles’ PSNP budget to identify the effect of the change in the amount of money households received in transfers between 2012 and 2014 on the change in dietary diversity. We use three different approaches to identify this effect: two-stage least squares, reduced form IV, and generalized propensity score matching using a continuous treatment. The results indicate the increase in PSNP transfers between 2012 and 2014 had no effect on household dietary diversity. Estimates for different household dietary indicators reveal that the effect of the change in the cash transfer received by the household is statistically and economically insignificant. This finding is robust to different identification strategies and the inclusion of control variables that determine eligibility to become a PSNP beneficiary. To identify the effect of PSNP participation on children height-for-age and stunting we use a difference-in-difference approach. We use children between 2 and 5 in 2012 as a baseline because by then they have achieved long-term failure to grow. The treatment group comprises children ages 2 to 5 in 2014 in PSNP participant households. While changes in height-for-age take time, two years of additional transfers among children who were not born or under the age of 2-3 in 2012 have the potential to make a considerable impact on reducing the prevalence of stunting. The results indicate that participation in PSNP had no effect on child nutrition measured as height-for-age or probability of beings stunted, suggesting that PSNP should be designed in a more nutrition-sensitive way.

Keywords: continuous treatment, dietary diversity, impact, nutrition security

Procedia PDF Downloads 320

Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

Abstract:

Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: earnings management, generalized linear regression, neural networks multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange

Procedia PDF Downloads 410

Authors: Zixuan Zhao, Lingbin Du, Le Wang, Youqing Wang, Yi Yang, Jingjun Chen, Hengjin Dong

Abstract:

Objectives: Few results from public attitudes for lung cancer screening are available both in China and abroad. This study aimed to identify preferred lung cancer screening modalities in a Chinese population and predict uptake rates of different modalities. Materials and Methods: A discrete choice experiment questionnaire was administered to 392 Chinese individuals aged 50–74 years who were at high risk for lung cancer. Each choice set had two lung screening options and an option to opt-out, and respondents were asked to choose the most preferred one. Both mixed logit analysis and stepwise logistic analysis were conducted to explore whether preferences were related to respondent characteristics and identify which kinds of respondents were more likely to opt out of any screening. Results: On mixed logit analysis, attributes that were predictive of choice at 1% level of statistical significance included the screening interval, screening venue, and out-of-pocket costs. The preferred screening modality seemed to be screening by low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) + blood test once a year in a general hospital at a cost of RMB 50; this could increase the uptake rate by 0.40 compared to the baseline setting. On stepwise logistic regression, those with no endowment insurance were more likely to opt out; those who were older and housewives/househusbands, and those with a health check habit and with commercial endowment insurance were less likely to opt out from a screening programme. Conclusions: There was considerable variance between real risk and self-perceived risk of lung cancer among respondents, and further research is required in this area. Lung cancer screening uptake can be increased by offering various screening modalities, so as to help policymakers further design the screening modality.

Keywords: lung cancer, screening, China., discrete choice experiment

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Ossama Matrane

Abstract:

Information System has become a strategic lever for enterprises. It contributes effectively to align business processes on strategies of enterprises. It is regarded as an increase in productivity and effectiveness. So, many organizations are currently involved in implementing sustainable Information System. And, a large number of studies have been conducted the last decade in order to define the success factors of information system. Thus, many studies on maturity model have been carried out. Some of this study is referred to the maturity model of Information System. In this article, we report on development of maturity models specifically designed for information system. This model is built based on three components derived from Maturity Model for Information Security Management, OPM3 for Project Management Maturity Model and processes of COBIT for IT governance. Thus, our proposed model defines three maturity stages for corporate a strong Information System to support objectives of organizations. It provides a very practical structure with which to assess and improve Information System Implementation.

Keywords: information system, maturity models, information security management, OPM3, IT governance

Procedia PDF Downloads 429

Authors: Yoshimoto Kurihara, Tad Gonsalves

Abstract:

Currently, in the field of object posture estimation, there is research on estimating the position and angle of an object by storing a 3D model of the object to be estimated in advance in a computer and matching it with the model. However, in this research, we have succeeded in creating a module that is much simpler, smaller in scale, and faster in operation. Our 6D pose estimation model consists of two different networks – a classification network and a regression network. From a single RGB image, the trained model estimates the class of the object in the image, the coordinates of the object, and its rotation angle in 3D space. In addition, we compared the estimation accuracy of each camera position, i.e., the angle from which the object was captured. The highest accuracy was recorded when the camera position was 75°, the accuracy of the classification was about 87.3%, and that of regression was about 98.9%.

Keywords: 6D posture estimation, image recognition, deep learning, AlexNet

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Victor Onomza Waziri, John K. Alhassan, Idris Ismaila, Noel Dogonyara

Abstract:

This paper describes the problem of building secure computational services for encrypted information in the Cloud. Computing without decrypting the encrypted data; therefore, it meets the yearning of computational encryption algorithmic aspiration model that could enhance the security of big data for privacy or confidentiality, availability and integrity of the data and user’s security. The cryptographic model applied for the computational process of the encrypted data is the Fully Homomorphic Encryption Scheme. We contribute a theoretical presentations in a high-level computational processes that are based on number theory that is derivable from abstract algebra which can easily be integrated and leveraged in the Cloud computing interface with detail theoretic mathematical concepts to the fully homomorphic encryption models. This contribution enhances the full implementation of big data analytics based on cryptographic security algorithm.

Keywords: big data analytics, security, privacy, bootstrapping, Fully Homomorphic Encryption Scheme

Procedia PDF Downloads 465

Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Andi Putra, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

Abstract:

Precipitation forecast is important to avoid natural disaster incident which can cause losses in the involved area. This paper reviews three techniques logistic regression, decision tree, and random forest which are used in making precipitation forecast. These combination techniques through the vector auto-regression (VAR) model help in finding the advantages and strengths of each technique in the forecast process. The data-set contains variables of the rain’s domain. Adaptation of artificial intelligence techniques involved in rain domain enables the forecast process to be easier and systematic for precipitation forecast.

Keywords: logistic regression, decisions tree, random forest, VAR model

Procedia PDF Downloads 435

Authors: Meltem Ucal

Abstract:

It is obvious that with limited resources and increasing of energy consumption from day to day, increase in amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will increase risk of climate change. The objective of “Raising Awareness in Energy Efficiency of Household Appliances and Climate Change” paper is to make the connection between climate change and energy saving to be understood. First of all, research and evaluation aiming improvement of women’s behaviors of purchasing and using household appliances and also educate next generations who will be faced risks of climate change, with their mothers will be done.

Keywords: energy efficiency, climate change, wareness, household appliences, econometrics model, logit model

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Rayeheh Khatami, Toktam Hanaei, Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar

Abstract:

Today, many local and national governments are developing urban agriculture as an effective tool in responding to challenges such as food security, poverty and environmental problems. In fact, urban agriculture plays an important role in food system, which can provide citizens' income and become one of the components of economic, social and environmental systems. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the urban agriculture and urban food systems in order to understand the impact of urban foods production on environmental planning in non-western city region context. To achieve such objective, we carry out a case study in Mashhad city of Iran by using qualitative approaches. A survey on documentary studies and planning tools integrate with face to face interview with experts which explain the role of food system in environmental planning process. The paper extends the use of food in the environmental planning, specifically to examine this role to create agricultural garden as a mean to improve agricultural system in non-western country. The paper is concluded with a set of recommendations for researchers and policymakers who seek to create spaces in order to implement urban agriculture in cities for food justice.

Keywords: urban agriculture , agricultural park, city region food system, Mashhad

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Kalyan Sundar Som, Ghanshyam Prasad Jhariya

Abstract:

Population growth is an important pervasive phenomenon in the world. Its survival depends upon many daily needs and food is one of them. Population factors play a decisive role in the human endeavor to attain food. Nutrition and health status compose integral part of human development and progress of a society. Therefore, the neglect any one of these components may leads to the deterioration of the quality of life. Food is also intimately related with economic growth and social progress as well as with political stability and peace. It refers to the availability of food and its access to it. It can be observed from global to local level. Food scarcity has emerged as a matter of great concern all over the world due to uncontrolled and unregulated growth of population .For this purpose this study try to find out the deficit or surplus production of food availability in terms of their total population in the study area. It also ascertains the population pressure, demand and supply of food stuff and demarcation of insecure areas.The data base of the study under discussion includes government published data regarding agriculture production, yield and cropped area in 2005-06 to 2011-12 available at commissioner land record Madhya Pradesh, Gwalior. It also includes the census of India for population data. For measuring food security or insecurity regions is based on the consumption of net food available in terms caloric value minus the consumption by the weighted total population. This approach has been adopted because the direct estimate of production and consumption is the only reliable way to ascertain food security in a unit area and to compare one area with another (Noor Mohammad, dec. 2002). The scenario in 2005-06 is 57.78 percent district has food insufficient in terms of their population. On the other hand after 5 years, there are only 22 % districts are deficit in term of food availability where Burhanpur is the most deficit (56 percent) district. While 20% district are highly surplus district in the state where Harda and Hoshangabad districts are very high surplus district (5 times and 3.95 times) in term of food availability(2011). The drastic change (agriculture transformation) is happen due government good intervention in the agricultural sector.

Keywords: agriculture transformation, caloric value method, deficit or surplus region, population pressure

Procedia PDF Downloads 425

Authors: Fuchun Li, Hong Xiao

Abstract:

We propose a new early warning model for predicting financial stress events for a given future time. In this model, we examine whether credit conditions play an important role as a nonlinear propagator of shocks when predicting the likelihood of occurrence of financial stress events for a given future time. This propagation takes the form of a threshold regression in which a regime change occurs if credit conditions cross a critical threshold. Given the new early warning model for financial stress events, we evaluate the performance of this model and currently available alternatives, such as the model from signal extraction approach, and linear regression model. In-sample forecasting results indicate that the three types of models are useful tools for predicting financial stress events while none of them outperforms others across all criteria considered. The out-of-sample forecasting results suggest that the credit-regime switching model performs better than the two others across all criteria and all forecasting horizons considered.

Keywords: cut-off probability, early warning model, financial crisis, financial stress, regime-switching model, forecasting horizons

Procedia PDF Downloads 424

Authors: Maha Almumaiz, Harry Evdorides

Abstract:

Change in land value typically occurs when a new interurban road construction causes an increase in accessibility; this change in the adjacent lands values differs according to land characteristics such as geographic location, land use type, land area and sale time (appraisal time). A multiple regression model is obtained to predict the percent change in land value (CLV) based on four independent variables namely land distance from the constructed road, area of land, nature of land use and time from the works completion of the road. The random values of percent change in land value were generated using Microsoft Excel with a range of up to 35%. The trend of change in land value with the four independent variables was determined from the literature references. The statistical analysis and model building process has been made by using the IBM SPSS V23 software. The Regression model suggests, for lands that are located within 3 miles as the straight distance from the road, the percent CLV is between (0-35%) which is depending on many factors including distance from the constructed road, land use, land area and time from works completion of the new road.

Keywords: interurban road, land use types, new road construction, percent CLV, regression model

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Ari S. Prabowo, Nia Febriyanti, Haryono B. Santosa

Abstract:

Security function that is called as Physical Protection Systems (PPS) has functions to detect, delay and response. Physical Protection Systems (PPS) in Detection and Radiation Measurement Laboratory needs to be improved continually by using internal resources. The nuclear security culture provides some potentials to support this research. The study starts by identifying the security function’s weaknesses and its strengths of security culture as a purpose. Secondly, the strengths of security culture are implemented in the laboratory management. Finally, a simulation was done to measure its effectiveness. Some changes were happened in laboratory personnel behaviors and procedures. All became more prudent. The results showed a good influence of nuclear security culture in laboratory security functions.

Keywords: laboratory, physical protection system, security culture, security function

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: Bashir Tijjani Abubakar

Abstract:

Capital markets play a very important role in financing of private and public institutions in both developing and developed economies. Unfortunately, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in those economies are yet to fully utilize the markets to finance their long financial needs. This study assesses the factors that influence the decisions of the Muslim Owners/Managers of SMEs in Nigeria and specifically in Kano to seek capital market financing. Logit regression model was used to assess the factors such as control of ownership, perception of the owners/managers on the interest rate charged by commercial banks, educational qualification, size, and age of the SMEs. The study reveals that all the factors have significant positive influence on the willingness of the SMEs Owners/Managers to seek capital market financing. The study recommends educating the Owners/Managers on the operations and products of the markets.

Keywords: capital markets, capital market financing, small and medium enterprise and willingness, size of an enterprise, age of an enterprise and control of ownership

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: E. C. Swart, E. Kunneke

Abstract:

Background: Disparities in food security exist between communities and households across the country, reflecting continuing social and economic inequalities. The purpose of this study was to investigate the presence of food insecurity amongst UWC students. Method: Cross-sectional study recruited 200 students via email and cellphone from an ICS generated list of randomly selected students aged 18-25. Data collection took place during the first two weeks of term 3. Individual appointments were made with consenting participants and conducted in English by trained BSc Dietetics students. Data was analysed using SPSS. The hunger scale used by Stats SA (October 2010) was used. Dietary intake was assessed using a single 24hr recall. Results: Sixty-three percent of the students reported that they do experience some food insecurity whilst 14.5% reported to go hungry due to inadequate access to food. Coping mechanisms during periods of food insecurity include: Asking a friend, neighbour, family member (40%); Borrow (15%); Steal (none); Casual jobs (12%). Anthropometric status of students did not differ statistically significantly by food security status. A statistically significantly greater proportion of Xhosa speaking students reported inadequate money for food. Students residing in residences off campus appear to be least food secure in terms of money available and limiting food intake, whilst those residing at home are less food insecure. Similar proportions of students who receive bursaries or whose parents are paying reported going hungry whilst those who supports themselves never goes hungry. Mean nutrient intake during the previous 24 hours of students who reported inadequate resources to buy food, who eat less due to inadequate resources and who goes hungry only differed statistically significantly for Vitamin B (go hungry) and for fibre (money shortage). In general the nutrient intake is lower for those who reported to eat less and go hungry except for added sugar, vitamin A and folate (go hungry), and energy, fibre, iron, riboflavin and folate (eat less). For students who reported to have inadequate money to buy food, the mean nutrient intake was higher except for calcium and thiamin. The mean body mass index of this group of students was also higher even though the difference was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Hunger is present on campus however a single 24hr recall did not confirm statistically significant lower nutrient intakes for students who reported different levels of food insecurity.

Keywords: anthropometry, dietary intake, nutritional status, students

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Mazhar Hamayun

Abstract:

Organizations need to take a holistic approach to their Zero Trust strategic and tactical security needs. This includes using a framework-agnostic model that will ensure all enterprise resources are being accessed securely, regardless of their location. Such can be achieved through the implementation of a security posture, monitoring the posture, and adjusting the posture through the Identify, Detect, Protect, Respond, and Recover Methods, The target audience of this document includes those involved in the management and operational functions of risk, information security, and information technology. This audience consists of the chief information security officer, chief information officer, chief technology officer, and those leading digital transformation initiatives where Zero Trust methods can help protect an organization’s data assets.

Keywords: ZTNA, zerotrust architecture, microsegmentation, NIST SP 800-207

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Xia Yang, Zheng Yang, Haiyong Sun, Yan Fang, Jingyu Liu, Jia Song

Abstract:

The smart contract in Ethereum is a unique program deployed on the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) to help manage cryptocurrency. The security of this smart contract is critical to Ethereum’s operation and highly sensitive. In this paper, we present a formal model for smart contract, using the separated term-obligation (STO) strategy to formalize and verify the smart contract. We use the IBM smart sponsor contract (SSC) as an example to elaborate the detail of the formalizing process. We also propose a formal smart sponsor contract model (FSSCM) and verify SSC’s security properties with an interactive theorem prover Coq. We found the 'Unchecked-Send' vulnerability in the SSC, using our formal model and verification method. Finally, we demonstrate how we can formalize and verify other smart contracts with this approach, and our work indicates that this formal verification can effectively verify the correctness and security of smart contracts.

Keywords: smart contract, formal verification, Ethereum, Coq

Procedia PDF Downloads 663

Authors: Amir Ali Fatoorchi

Abstract:

Regardless of the advantage of LoT devices, they have limitations like storage, compute, and security problems. In recent years, a lot of Blockchain-based research in IoT published and presented. In this paper, we present the Security issues of LoT. IoT has three levels of security issues: Low-level, Intermediate-level, and High-level. We survey and compare blockchain-based solutions for high-level security issues and show how the underlying technology of bitcoin and Ethereum could solve IoT problems.

Keywords: Blockchain, security, data security, IoT

Procedia PDF Downloads 200