Search results for: loan portfolio
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 367

Search results for: loan portfolio

67 Designing the Maturity Model of Smart Digital Transformation through the Foundation Data Method

Authors: Mohammad Reza Fazeli

Abstract:

Nowadays, the fourth industry, known as the digital transformation of industries, is seen as one of the top subjects in the history of structural revolution, which has led to the high-tech and tactical dominance of the organization. In the face of these profits, the undefined and non-transparent nature of the after-effects of investing in digital transformation has hindered many organizations from attempting this area of this industry. One of the important frameworks in the field of understanding digital transformation in all organizations is the maturity model of digital transformation. This model includes two main parts of digital transformation maturity dimensions and digital transformation maturity stages. Mediating factors of digital maturity and organizational performance at the individual (e.g., motivations, attitudes) and at the organizational level (e.g., organizational culture) should be considered. For successful technology adoption processes, organizational development and human resources must go hand in hand and be supported by a sound communication strategy. Maturity models are developed to help organizations by providing broad guidance and a roadmap for improvement. However, as a result of a systematic review of the literature and its analysis, it was observed that none of the 18 maturity models in the field of digital transformation fully meet all the criteria of appropriateness, completeness, clarity, and objectivity. A maturity assessment framework potentially helps systematize assessment processes that create opportunities for change in processes and organizations enabled by digital initiatives and long-term improvements at the project portfolio level. Cultural characteristics reflecting digital culture are not systematically integrated, and specific digital maturity models for the service sector are less clearly presented. It is also clearly evident that research on the maturity of digital transformation as a holistic concept is scarce and needs more attention in future research.

Keywords: digital transformation, organizational performance, maturity models, maturity assessment

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66 Recent Volatility in Islamic Banking Sector of Bangladesh: Nexus Between Economy, Religion and Politics

Authors: Abdul Kader

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This paper attempts to investigate several contributory factors to recent volatility in the Islamic Banking sector of Bangladesh. In particular, the study explores corporate governance, credit management, credit regulations, inept board of directors, using religious sentiment as a means to deceive general people, and the degree of political interference as potential contributory factors. To find the correlation among different variables, semi-structured questionnaires were distributed among the clients, bank managers, some Banking scholars and ex-members of the board of directors of three Islamic Banks in Bangladesh. Later, ten interviews were collected from key informants to gain in-depth information about the present mismanagement of Islamic Banks in Bangladesh. After then, data were analyzed using statistical software and substantiated by secondary sources like newspapers, reports and investigative reports aired in screen media. The paper found a correlation between almost all contributory factors and recent unstable conditions in the Islamic banking sector. After performing regression analysis, this paper found a more significant relationship between some of the contributory factors with Banking volatility than others. For instance, credit management, inept board of directors, depriving customers of proving no profit in the name of business—no interest-- and political interference have a strong significant positive correlation with the present poor condition of Islamic Banking. This paper concludes that while internal management is important in recovering the losses, the government needs to ensure framing better policy for the Islamic Banking system, Central Bank needs to supervise and monitor all Islamic banks meticulously and loan receivers must go through the impartial evaluation and approved by the representatives of the Central Shariah Board. This paper also recommends that there is a need to strengthen the auditing system and improve regulatory oversight of the Islamic Banks in Bangladesh. Policy recommendations that this paper put forward could provide an outline for dealing with the existing challenging condition of Islamic Banks and these could be applied to similar problems in other countries where the Islamic Banking model exists.

Keywords: Islamic bank, volatility in banking sector, shariah law, credit management, political interference

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65 Assessment Using Copulas of Simultaneous Damage to Multiple Buildings Due to Tsunamis

Authors: Yo Fukutani, Shuji Moriguchi, Takuma Kotani, Terada Kenjiro

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If risk management of the assets owned by companies, risk assessment of real estate portfolio, and risk identification of the entire region are to be implemented, it is necessary to consider simultaneous damage to multiple buildings. In this research, the Sagami Trough earthquake tsunami that could have a significant effect on the Japanese capital region is focused on, and a method is proposed for simultaneous damage assessment using copulas that can take into consideration the correlation of tsunami depths and building damage between two sites. First, the tsunami inundation depths at two sites were simulated by using a nonlinear long-wave equation. The tsunamis were simulated by varying the slip amount (five cases) and the depths (five cases) for each of 10 sources of the Sagami Trough. For each source, the frequency distributions of the tsunami inundation depth were evaluated by using the response surface method. Then, Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted, and frequency distributions of tsunami inundation depth were evaluated at the target sites for all sources of the Sagami Trough. These are marginal distributions. Kendall’s tau for the tsunami inundation simulation at two sites was 0.83. Based on this value, the Gaussian copula, t-copula, Clayton copula, and Gumbel copula (n = 10,000) were generated. Then, the simultaneous distributions of the damage rate were evaluated using the marginal distributions and the copulas. For the correlation of the tsunami inundation depth at the two sites, the expected value hardly changed compared with the case of no correlation, but the damage rate of the ninety-ninth percentile value was approximately 2%, and the maximum value was approximately 6% when using the Gumbel copula.

Keywords: copulas, Monte-Carlo simulation, probabilistic risk assessment, tsunamis

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64 The Shannon Entropy and Multifractional Markets

Authors: Massimiliano Frezza, Sergio Bianchi, Augusto Pianese

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Introduced by Shannon in 1948 in the field of information theory as the average rate at which information is produced by a stochastic set of data, the concept of entropy has gained much attention as a measure of uncertainty and unpredictability associated with a dynamical system, eventually depicted by a stochastic process. In particular, the Shannon entropy measures the degree of order/disorder of a given signal and provides useful information about the underlying dynamical process. It has found widespread application in a variety of fields, such as, for example, cryptography, statistical physics and finance. In this regard, many contributions have employed different measures of entropy in an attempt to characterize the financial time series in terms of market efficiency, market crashes and/or financial crises. The Shannon entropy has also been considered as a measure of the risk of a portfolio or as a tool in asset pricing. This work investigates the theoretical link between the Shannon entropy and the multifractional Brownian motion (mBm), stochastic process which recently is the focus of a renewed interest in finance as a driving model of stochastic volatility. In particular, after exploring the current state of research in this area and highlighting some of the key results and open questions that remain, we show a well-defined relationship between the Shannon (log)entropy and the memory function H(t) of the mBm. In details, we allow both the length of time series and time scale to change over analysis to study how the relation modify itself. On the one hand, applications are developed after generating surrogates of mBm trajectories based on different memory functions; on the other hand, an empirical analysis of several international stock indexes, which confirms the previous results, concludes the work.

Keywords: Shannon entropy, multifractional Brownian motion, Hurst–Holder exponent, stock indexes

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63 Valorization Cascade Approach of Fish By-Products towards a Zero-Waste Future: A Review

Authors: Joana Carvalho, Margarida Soares, André Ribeiro, Lucas Nascimento, Nádia Valério, Zlatina Genisheva

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Following the exponential growth of human population, a remarkable increase in the amount of fish waste has been produced worldwide. The fish processing industry generates a considerable amount of by-products which represents a considerable environmental problem. Accordingly, the reuse and valorisation of these by-products is a key process for marine resource preservation. The significant volume of fish waste produced worldwide, along with its environmental impact, underscores the urgent need for the adoption of sustainable practices. The transformative potential of utilizing fish processing waste to create industrial value is gaining recognition. The substantial amounts of waste generated by the fish processing industry present both environmental challenges and economic inefficiencies. Different added-value products can be recovered by the valorisation industries, whereas fishing companies can save costs associated with the management of those wastes, with associated advantages, not only in terms of economic income but also considering the environmental impacts. Fish processing by-products have numerous applications; the target portfolio of products will be fish oil, fish protein hydrolysates, bacteriocins, pigments, vitamins, collagen, and calcium-rich powder, targeting food products, additives, supplements, and nutraceuticals. This literature review focuses on the main valorisation ways of fish wastes and different compounds with a high commercial value obtained by fish by-products and their possible applications in different fields. Highlighting its potential in sustainable resource management strategies can play and important role in reshaping the fish processing industry, driving it towards circular economy and consequently more sustainable future.

Keywords: fish process industry, fish wastes, by-products, circular economy, sustainability

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62 Issues and Challenges of Information and Communication Technology Adoption and Application for Business-Related Performance among Agro-Based Small and Medium Entrepreneurs in the State of Selangor, Malaysia

Authors: Mohd Nizam Osman

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This study explores issues and challenges of information and communication technology (ICT) adoption and application for business-related performance of Agro-based small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) in the state of Selangor, Malaysia. Globally, SMEs have championed the socio-economic development of nations across the globe, including Malaysia. Thus, the objectives of this study explore issues and challenges of agro-based SMEs' adoption and usage of ICT, the business-related performance of SMEs via the adoption of ICT, and the impact of incentives on SMEs' adoption and use of ICT. The study was conducted in Selangor, Malaysia. A qualitative research approach was deployed for the study. Data for the study emanated from semi-structured interviews and field note observation of 14 informants who are registered as small-scale business owners and operators. Based on thematic analysis, data were triangulated to ensure consistency and validation of findings for the study. Findings revealed that SMEs are faced with a lack of funding, low expertise, and lack of storage, leading to an unsustainable supply of goods and services. Although effective communication, ease of business activities/transactions, and information search by way of research were among the business performance experienced by SMEs' adoption of ICT. Further findings showed that loan conditions and personal and business interests hindered SMEs' reception and access to programs, schemes, and incentives geared at aiding the continuous growth and development of agro-based SMEs. The study suggests the need for policy change in terms of diversification of channels of funding and access to funds to enable credit guarantee schemes and peer or community-based financing. Consequently, the study recommends the engagement of SMEs in policy decision-making to ascertain the type of incentives relevant to their business operations. Likewise, from a technological standpoint, the study suggests the expansion of the framework of technology acceptance with focuses on affordability, type of users, and level of usage.

Keywords: ICT adoption, business related performance, agro-based SMEs, ICT application for SMEs

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61 Demand-Side Financing for Thai Higher Education: A Reform Towards Sustainable Development

Authors: Daral Maesincee, Jompol Thongpaen

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Thus far, most of the decisions made within the walls of Thai higher education (HE) institutions have primarily been supply-oriented. With the current supply-driven, itemized HE financing systems, the nation is struggling to systemically produce high-quality manpower that serves the market’s needs, often resulting in education mismatches and unemployment – particularly in science, technology, and innovation (STI)-related fields. With the COVID-19 pandemic challenges widening the education inequality (accessibility and quality) gap, HE becomes even more unobtainable for underprivileged students, permanently leaving some out of the system. Therefore, Thai HE needs a new financing system that produces the “right people” for the “right occupations” through the “right ways,” regardless of their socioeconomic backgrounds, and encourages the creation of non-degree courses to tackle these ongoing challenges. The “Demand-Side Financing for Thai Higher Education” policy aims to do so by offering a new paradigm of HE resource allocation via two main mechanisms: i) standardized formula-based unit-cost subsidizations that is specific to each study field and ii) student loan programs that respond to the “demand signals” from the labor market and the students, that are in line with the country’s priorities. Through in-dept reviews, extensive studies, and consultations with various experts, education committees, and related agencies, i) the method of demand signal analysis is identified, ii) the unit-cost of each student in the sample study fields is approximated, iii) the method of budget analysis is formulated, iv) the interagency workflows are established, and v) a supporting information database is created to suggest the number of graduates each HE institution can potentially produce, the study fields and skillsets that are needed by the labor market, the employers’ satisfaction with the graduates, and each study field’s employment rates. By responding to the needs of all stakeholders, this policy is expected to steer Thai HE toward producing more STI-related manpower in order to uplift Thai people’s quality of life and enhance the nation’s global competitiveness. This policy is currently in the process of being considered by the National Education Transformation Committee and the Higher Education Commission.

Keywords: demand-side financing, higher education resource, human capital, higher education

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60 Musharakah Mutanaqisah Partnership as a Tool for House Financing, Its Sustainability and Issues

Authors: Imran Mehboob Shaikh, Kamaruzaman Noordin

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Musharakah Mutanaqisah or Diminishing Partnership is a derivative of Musharakah contract, which is used by Islamic banks for housing finance facility. Most of the banks offer housing finance based on the concept of Musharakah Mutanaqisah, apart from few which still offer housing finance using BBA, Tawarruq (commodity Murabahah) and Istisna. This research attempts to compare the practice of DP housing finance offered in Malaysia. This paper will further look into challenges in Musharakah Mutanaqisah practice and its sustainability as a mortgage product. In practice there are certain issues related to Musharakah Mutanaqisah also known as Musharakah al Muntaiah bi tamlik, widely accepted and mostly used for housing finance by the Islamic banks. In Malaysia, it is in transforming stage from Bay bithamman Ajil, which is mostly used for housing finance in ASEAN region i.e., Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei. In order to conduct this study, a discussion was carried out with few researchers who had worked on the topic previously and some Islamic bank officers attached to a full-fledged Islamic bank in Malaysia. Apart from that previous literature on Musharakah Mutanaqisah was also reviewed and various books, as well as online data, was considered for this study, and websites of different Islamic banks with information for Diminishing partnership, home financing were retrieved. This paper will highlight issues surrounding Diminishing Partnership contract and its conformity to Maqasid al Shariah (objectives of Shariah). Diminishing Partnership is widely accepted in different parts of the world and is mostly used for housing finance. The future prospect of DP is believed to be affirmative. As the product is a better substitute for BBA and most of the Islamic banks around the world have utilized their housing portfolio using the contract but at the same time, there are certain issues that need to be overcome. Even though Islamic banks are striving to sustain and compete the conventional banks but securing the customers from Gharar and other issues should be the primary objective of Islamic financial institutions.

Keywords: BBA, home financing, musharakah mutanaqisah, tawarruq

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59 Design and Analysis of a Combined Cooling, Heating and Power Plant for Maximum Operational Flexibility

Authors: Salah Hosseini, Hadi Ramezani, Bagher Shahbazi, Hossein Rabiei, Jafar Hooshmand, Hiwa Khaldi

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Diversity of energy portfolio and fluctuation of urban energy demand establish the need for more operational flexibility of combined Cooling, Heat, and Power Plants. Currently, the most common way to achieve these specifications is the use of heat storage devices or wet operation of gas turbines. The current work addresses using variable extraction steam turbine in conjugation with a gas turbine inlet cooling system as an alternative way for enhancement of a CCHP cycle operating range. A thermodynamic model is developed and typical apartments building in PARDIS Technology Park (located at Tehran Province) is chosen as a case study. Due to the variable Heat demand and using excess chiller capacity for turbine inlet cooling purpose, the mentioned steam turbine and TIAC system provided an opportunity for flexible operation of the cycle and boosted the independence of the power and heat generation in the CCHP plant. It was found that the ratio of power to the heat of CCHP cycle varies from 12.6 to 2.4 depending on the City heating and cooling demands and ambient condition, which means a good independence between power and heat generation. Furthermore, selection of the TIAC design temperature is done based on the amount of ratio of power gain to TIAC coil surface area, it was found that for current cycle arrangement the TIAC design temperature of 15 C is most economical. All analysis is done based on the real data, gathered from the local weather station of the PARDIS site.

Keywords: CCHP plant, GTG, HRSG, STG, TIAC, operational flexibility, power to heat ratio

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58 The Relationship between Risk and Capital: Evidence from Indian Commercial Banks

Authors: Seba Mohanty, Jitendra Mahakud

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Capital ratio is one of the major indicators of the stability of the commercial banks. Pertinent to its pervasive importance, over the years the regulators, policy makers focus on the maintenance of the particular level of capital ratio to minimize the solvency and liquidation risk. In this context, it is very much important to identify the relationship between capital and risk and find out the factors which determine the capital ratios of commercial banks. The study examines the relationship between capital and risk of the commercial banks operating in India. Other bank specific variables like bank size, deposit, profitability, non-performing assets, bank liquidity, net interest margin, loan loss reserves, deposits variability and regulatory pressure are also considered for the analysis. The period of study is 1997-2015 i.e. the period of post liberalization. To identify the impact of financial crisis and implementation of Basel II on capital ratio, we have divided the whole period into two sub-periods i.e. 1997-2008 and 2008-2015. This study considers all the three types of commercial banks, i.e. public sector, the private sector and foreign banks, which have continuous data for the whole period. The main sources of data are Prowess data base maintained by centre for monitoring Indian economy (CMIE) and Reserve Bank of India publications. We use simultaneous equation model and more specifically Two Stage Least Square method to find out the relationship between capital and risk. From the econometric analysis, we find that capital and risk affect each other simultaneously, and this is consistent across the time period and across the type of banks. Moreover, regulation has a positive significant impact on the ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets, but no significant impact on the banks risk taking behaviour. Our empirical findings also suggest that size has a negative impact on capital and risk, indicating that larger banks increase their capital less than the other banks supported by the too-big-to-fail hypothesis. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by predicting a strong relationship between capital and risk in an emerging economy, where banking sector plays a majority role for financial development. Further this study may be considered as a primary study to find out the macro economic factors which affecting risk and capital in India.

Keywords: capital, commercial bank, risk, simultaneous equation model

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57 The Choosing the Right Projects With Multi-Criteria Decision Making to Ensure the Sustainability of the Projects

Authors: Saniye Çeşmecioğlu

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The importance of project sustainability and success has become increasingly significant due to the proliferation of external environmental factors that have decreased project resistance in contemporary times. The primary approach to forestall the failure of projects is to ensure their long-term viability through the strategic selection of projects as creating judicious project selection framework within the organization. Decision-makers require precise decision contexts (models) that conform to the company's business objectives and sustainability expectations during the project selection process. The establishment of a rational model for project selection enables organizations to create a distinctive and objective framework for the selection process. Additionally, for the optimal implementation of this decision-making model, it is crucial to establish a Project Management Office (PMO) team and Project Steering Committee within the organizational structure to oversee the framework. These teams enable updating project selection criteria and weights in response to changing conditions, ensuring alignment with the company's business goals, and facilitating the selection of potentially viable projects. This paper presents a multi-criteria decision model for selecting project sustainability and project success criteria that ensures timely project completion and retention. The model was developed using MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique) and was based on broadcaster companies’ expectations. The ultimate results of this study provide a model that endorses the process of selecting the appropriate project objectively by utilizing project selection and sustainability criteria along with their respective weights for organizations. Additionally, the study offers suggestions that may ascertain helpful in future endeavors.

Keywords: project portfolio management, project selection, multi-criteria decision making, project sustainability and success criteria, MACBETH

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56 E-Portfolios as a Means of Perceiving Students’ Listening and Speaking Progress

Authors: Heba Salem

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This paper aims to share the researcher’s experience of using e-Portfolios as an assessment tool to follow up on students’ learning experiences and performance throughout the semester. It also aims at highlighting the importance of students’ self-reflection in the process of language learning. The paper begins by introducing the advanced media course, with its focus on listening and speaking skills, and introduces the students’ profiles. Then it explains the students’ role in the e-portfolio process as they are given the option to choose a listening text they studied throughout the semester and to choose a recorded oral production of their collection of artifacts throughout the semester. Students showcase and reflect on their progress in both listening comprehension and speaking. According to the research, re-listening to work given to them and to their production is a means of reflecting on both their progress and achievement. And choosing the work students want to showcase is a means to promote independent learning as well as self-expression. Students are encouraged to go back to the class learning outcomes in the process of choosing the work. In their reflections, students express how they met the specific learning outcome. While giving their presentations, students expressed how useful the experience of returning and going over what they covered to select one and going over their production as well. They also expressed how beneficial it was to listen to themselves and literally see their progress in both listening comprehension and speaking. Students also reported that they grasped more details from the texts than they did when first having it as an assignment, which coincided with one of the class learning outcomes. They also expressed the fact that they had more confidence speaking as well as they were able to use a variety of vocabulary and idiomatic expressions that students have accumulated. For illustration, this paper includes practical samples of students’ tasks and instructions as well as samples of their reflections. The results of students’ reflections coincide with what the research confirms about the effectiveness of the e-portfolios as a means of assessment. The employment of e-Portfolios has two-folded benefits; students are able to measure the achievement of the targeted learning outcomes, and teachers receive constructive feedback on their teaching methods.

Keywords: e-portfolios, assessment, self assessment, listening and speaking progress, foreign language, reflection, learning out comes, sharing experience

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55 The Work Book Tool, a Lifelong Chronicle: Part of the "Designprogrammet" at the Design School of the University in Kalmar, Sweden

Authors: Henriette Jarild-Koblanck, Monica Moro

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The research has been implemented at the Kalmar University now LNU Linnaeus University inside the Design Program (Designprogrammet) for several years. The Work Book tool was created using the framework of the Bologna declaration. The project concerns primarily pedagogy and design methodology, focusing on how we evaluate artistic work processes and projects and on how we can develop the preconditions for cross-disciplinary work. The original idea of the Work Book springs from the steady habit of the Swedish researcher and now retired full professor and dean Henriette Koblanck to put images, things and colours in a notebook, right from her childhood, writing down impressions and reflections. On this preliminary thought of making use of a work book, in a form freely chosen by the user, she began to develop the Design Program (Designprogrammet) that was applied at the Kalmar University now LNU Linnaeus University, where she called a number of professionals to collaborate, among them Monica Moro an Italian designer, researcher, and teacher in the field of colour and shape. The educational intention is that the Work Book should become a tool that is both inspirational for the process of thinking and intuitional creating, and personal support for both rational and technical thinking. The students were to use the Work Book not only to visually and graphically document their results from investigations, experiments and thoughts but also as a tool to present their works to others, -students, tutors and teachers, or to other stakeholders they discussed the proceedings with. To help the students a number of matrixes were developed oriented to evaluate the projects in elaboration, based on the Bologna Declaration. In conclusion, the feedback from the students is excellent; many are still using the Work Book as a professional tool as in their words they consider it a rather accurate representation of their working process, and furthermore of themselves, so much that many of them have used it as a portfolio when applying for jobs.

Keywords: academic program, art, assessment of student’s progress, Bologna Declaration, design, learning, self-assessment

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54 Photocapacitor Integrating Solar Energy Conversion and Energy Storage

Authors: Jihuai Wu, Zeyu Song, Zhang Lan, Liuxue Sun

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Solar energy is clean, open, and infinite, but solar radiation on the earth is fluctuating, intermittent, and unstable. So, the sustainable utilization of solar energy requires a combination of high-efficient energy conversion and low-loss energy storage technologies. Hence, a photo capacitor integrated with photo-electrical conversion and electric-chemical storage functions in single device is a cost-effective, volume-effective and functional-effective optimal choice. However, owing to the multiple components, multi-dimensional structure and multiple functions in one device, especially the mismatch of the functional modules, the overall conversion and storage efficiency of the photocapacitors is less than 13%, which seriously limits the development of the integrated system of solar conversion and energy storage. To this end, two typical photocapacitors were studied. A three-terminal photocapacitor was integrated by using perovskite solar cell as solar conversion module and symmetrical supercapacitor as energy storage module. A function portfolio management concept was proposed the relationship among various efficiencies during photovoltaic conversion and energy storage process were clarified. By harmonizing the energy matching between conversion and storage modules and seeking the maximum power points coincide and the maximum efficiency points synchronize, the overall efficiency of the photocapacitor surpassed 18 %, and Joule efficiency was closed to 90%. A voltage adjustable hybrid supercapacitor (VAHSC) was designed as energy storage module, and two Si wafers in series as solar conversion module, a three-terminal photocapacitor was fabricated. The VAHSC effectively harmonizes the energy harvest and storage modules, resulting in the current, voltage, power, and energy match between both modules. The optimal photocapacitor achieved an overall efficiency of 15.49% and Joule efficiency of 86.01%, along with excellent charge/discharge cycle stability. In addition, the Joule efficiency (ηJoule) was defined as the energy ratio of discharge/charge of the devices for the first time.

Keywords: joule efficiency, perovskite solar cell, photocapacitor, silicon solar cell, supercapacitor

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53 Constructing the Joint Mean-Variance Regions for Univariate and Bivariate Normal Distributions: Approach Based on the Measure of Cumulative Distribution Functions

Authors: Valerii Dashuk

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The usage of the confidence intervals in economics and econometrics is widespread. To be able to investigate a random variable more thoroughly, joint tests are applied. One of such examples is joint mean-variance test. A new approach for testing such hypotheses and constructing confidence sets is introduced. Exploring both the value of the random variable and its deviation with the help of this technique allows checking simultaneously the shift and the probability of that shift (i.e., portfolio risks). Another application is based on the normal distribution, which is fully defined by mean and variance, therefore could be tested using the introduced approach. This method is based on the difference of probability density functions. The starting point is two sets of normal distribution parameters that should be compared (whether they may be considered as identical with given significance level). Then the absolute difference in probabilities at each 'point' of the domain of these distributions is calculated. This measure is transformed to a function of cumulative distribution functions and compared to the critical values. Critical values table was designed from the simulations. The approach was compared with the other techniques for the univariate case. It differs qualitatively and quantitatively in easiness of implementation, computation speed, accuracy of the critical region (theoretical vs. real significance level). Stable results when working with outliers and non-normal distributions, as well as scaling possibilities, are also strong sides of the method. The main advantage of this approach is the possibility to extend it to infinite-dimension case, which was not possible in the most of the previous works. At the moment expansion to 2-dimensional state is done and it allows to test jointly up to 5 parameters. Therefore the derived technique is equivalent to classic tests in standard situations but gives more efficient alternatives in nonstandard problems and on big amounts of data.

Keywords: confidence set, cumulative distribution function, hypotheses testing, normal distribution, probability density function

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52 Social Business Evaluation in Brazil: Analysis of Entrepreneurship and Investor Practices

Authors: Erica Siqueira, Adriana Bin, Rachel Stefanuto

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The paper aims to identify and to discuss the impact and results of ex-ante, mid-term and ex-post evaluation initiatives in Brazilian Social Enterprises from the point of view of the entrepreneurs and investors, highlighting the processes involved in these activities and their aftereffects. The study was conducted using a descriptive methodology, primarily qualitative. A multiple-case study was used, and, for that, semi-structured interviews were conducted with ten entrepreneurs in the (i) social finance, (ii) education, (iii) health, (iv) citizenship and (v) green tech fields, as well as three representatives of various impact investments, which are (i) venture capital, (ii) loan and (iii) equity interest areas. Convenience (non-probabilistic) sampling was adopted to select both businesses and investors, who voluntarily contributed to the research. The evaluation is still incipient in most of the studied business cases. Some stand out by adopting well-known methodologies like Global Impact Investing Report System (GIIRS), but still, have a lot to improve in several aspects. Most of these enterprises use nonexperimental research conducted by their own employees, which is ordinarily not understood as 'golden standard' to some authors in the area. Nevertheless, from the entrepreneur point of view, it is possible to identify that most of them including those routines in some extent in their day-by-day activities, despite the difficulty they have of the business in general. In turn, the investors do not have overall directions to establish evaluation initiatives in respective enterprises; they are funding. There is a mechanism of trust, and this is, usually, enough to prove the impact for all stakeholders. The work concludes that there is a large gap between what the literature states in regard to what should be the best practices in these businesses and what the enterprises really do. The evaluation initiatives must be included in some extension in all enterprises in order to confirm social impact that they realize. Here it is recommended the development and adoption of more flexible evaluation mechanisms that consider the complexity involved in these businesses’ routines. The reflections of the research also suggest important implications for the field of Social Enterprises, whose practices are far from what the theory preaches. It highlights the risk of the legitimacy of these enterprises that identify themselves as 'social impact', sometimes without the proper proof based on causality data. Consequently, this makes the field of social entrepreneurship fragile and susceptible to questioning, weakening the ecosystem as a whole. In this way, the top priorities of these enterprises must be handled together with the results and impact measurement activities. Likewise, it is recommended to perform further investigations that consider the trade-offs between impact versus profit. In addition, research about gender, the entrepreneur motivation to call themselves as Social Enterprises, and the possible unintended consequences from these businesses also should be investigated.

Keywords: evaluation practices, impact, results, social enterprise, social entrepreneurship ecosystem

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51 An Assessment on Socio-Economic Impacts of Smallholder Eucalyptus Tree Plantation in the Case of Northwest Ethiopia

Authors: Mersha Tewodros Getnet, Mengistu Ketema, Bamlaku Alemu, Girma Demilew

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The availability of forest products determines the possibilities for forest-based livelihood options. Plantation forest is a widespread economic activity in highland areas of the Amhara regional state, owing primarily to degradation and limited access to natural forests. As a result, tree plantation has become one of the rural livelihood options in the area. Therefore, given the increasing importance of smallholder plantations in highland areas of Amhara Regional States, the aim of this research was to evaluate the extent of smallholder plantations and their socio-economic impact. To address the abovementioned research, a sequential embedded mixed research design was employed. This qualitative and quantitative information was gathered from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data were collected from 385 sample households, which were chosen using a three-stage, multi-stage sampling method based on the Cochran sample size formula. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data. Smallholder eucalyptus plantations in the study area were discovered to be common, and they are now part of the livelihood portfolio for meeting both household wood consumption and generating cash income. According to the PSM model's ATT results, income from selling farm forest products certainly contributes more to total household income, farm expenditure per cultivated land, and education spending than non-planter households. As a result, the government must strengthen plantation practices by prioritizing specific intervention areas while implementing measures to counteract the plantation's inequality-increasing effect through a variety of means, including progressive taxation.

Keywords: smallholder plantation, Eucalyptus, propensity score matching, average treatment effect and income

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50 Bank Internal Controls and Credit Risk in Europe: A Quantitative Measurement Approach

Authors: Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi, Jordi Moreno Gené

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Managerial actions which negatively profile banks and impair corporate reputation are addressed through effective internal control systems. Disregard for acceptable standards and procedures for granting credit have affected bank loan portfolios and could be cited for the crises in some European countries. The study intends to determine the effectiveness of internal control systems, investigate whether perceived agency problems exist on the part of board members and to establish the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in the European Union. Drawing theoretical support from the behavioural compliance and agency theories, about seventeen internal control variables (drawn from the revised COSO framework), bank-specific, country, stock market and macro-economic variables will be involved in the study. A purely quantitative approach will be employed to model internal control variables covering the control environment, risk management, control activities, information and communication and monitoring. Panel data from 2005-2014 on listed banks from 28 European Union countries will be used for the study. Hypotheses will be tested and the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression will be run to establish the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The Hausman test will be used to select whether random or fixed effect model will be used. It is expected that listed banks will have sound internal control systems but their effectiveness cannot be confirmed. A perceived agency problem on the part of the board of directors is expected to be confirmed. The study expects significant effect of internal controls on credit risk. The study will uncover another perspective of internal controls as not only an operational risk issue but credit risk too. Banks will be cautious that observing effective internal control systems is an ethical and socially responsible act since the collapse (crisis) of financial institutions as a result of excessive default is a major contagion. This study deviates from the usual primary data approach to measuring internal control variables and rather models internal control variables in a quantitative approach for the panel data. Thus a grey area in approaching the revised COSO framework for internal controls is opened for further research. Most bank failures and crises could be averted if effective internal control systems are religiously adhered to.

Keywords: agency theory, credit risk, internal controls, revised COSO framework

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49 Empowering Youth Through Pesh Poultry: A Transformative Approach to Addressing Unemployment and Fostering Sustainable Livelihoods in Busia District, Uganda

Authors: Bisemiire Anthony,

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PESH Poultry is a business project proposed specifically to solve unemployment and income-related problems affecting the youths in the Busia district. The project is intended to transform the life of the youth in terms of economic, social and behavioral, as well as the domestic well-being of the community at large. PESH Poultry is a start-up poultry farm that will be engaged in the keeping of poultry birds, broilers and layers for the production of quality and affordable poultry meat and eggs respectively and other poultry derivatives targeting consumers in eastern Uganda, for example, hotels, restaurants, households and bakeries. We intend to use a semi-intensive system of farming, where water and some food are provided in a separate nighttime shelter for the birds; our location will be in Lumino, Busia district. The poultry project will be established and owned by Bisemiire Anthony, Nandera Patience, Naula Justine, Bwire Benjamin and other investors. The farm will be managed and directed by Nandera Patience, who has five years of work experience and business administration knowledge. We will sell poultry products, including poultry eggs, chicken meat, feathers and poultry manure. We also offer consultancy services for poultry farming. Our eggs and chicken meat are hygienic, rich in protein and high quality. We produce processes and packages to meet the standard organization of Uganda and international standards. The business project shall comprise five (5) workers on the key management team who will share various roles and responsibilities in the identified business functions such as marketing, finance and other related poultry farming activities. PESH Poultry seeks 30 million Ugandan shillings in long-term financing to cover start-up costs, equipment, building expenses and working capital. Funding for the launch of the business will be provided primarily by equity from the investors. The business will reach positive cash flow in its first year of operation, allowing for the expected repayment of its loan obligations. Revenue will top UGX 11,750,000, and net income will reach about UGX115 950,000 in the 1st year of operation. The payback period for our project is 2 years and 3 months. The farm plans on starting with 1000 layer birds and 1000 broiler birds, 20 workers in the first year of operation.

Keywords: chicken, pullets, turkey, ducks

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48 The Impacts of an Adapted Literature Circle Model on Reading Comprehension, Engagement, and Cooperation in an EFL Reading Course

Authors: Tiantian Feng

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There is a dearth of research on the literary circle as a teaching strategy in English as a Foreign Language (EFL) classes in Chinese colleges and universities and even fewer empirical studies on its impacts. In this one-quarter, design-based project, the researcher aims to increase students’ engagement, cooperation, and, on top of that, reading comprehension performance by utilizing a researcher-developed, adapted reading circle model in an EFL reading course at a Chinese college. The model also integrated team-based learning and portfolio assessment, with an emphasis on the specialization of individual responsibilities, contributions, and outcomes in reading projects, with the goal of addressing current issues in EFL classes at Chinese colleges, such as passive learning, test orientation, ineffective and uncooperative teamwork, and lack of dynamics. In this quasi-experimental research, two groups of students enrolled in the course were invited to participate in four in-class team projects, with the intervention class following the adapted literature circle model and team members rotating as Leader, Coordinator, Brain trust, and Reporter. The researcher/instructor used a sequential explanatory mixed-methods approach to quantitatively analyze the final grades for the pre-and post-tests, as well as individual scores for team projects and will code students' artifacts in the next step, with the results to be reported in a subsequent paper(s). Initial analysis showed that both groups saw an increase in final grades, but the intervention group enjoyed a more significant boost, suggesting that the adapted reading circle model is effective in improving students’ reading comprehension performance. This research not only closes the empirical research gap of literature circles in college EFL classes in China but also adds to the pool of effective ways to optimize reading comprehension performance and class performance in college EFL classes.

Keywords: literature circle, EFL teaching, college english reading, reading comprehension

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47 Optimizing Wind Turbine Blade Geometry for Enhanced Performance and Durability: A Computational Approach

Authors: Nwachukwu Ifeanyi

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Wind energy is a vital component of the global renewable energy portfolio, with wind turbines serving as the primary means of harnessing this abundant resource. However, the efficiency and stability of wind turbines remain critical challenges in maximizing energy output and ensuring long-term operational viability. This study proposes a comprehensive approach utilizing computational aerodynamics and aeromechanics to optimize wind turbine performance across multiple objectives. The proposed research aims to integrate advanced computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations with structural analysis techniques to enhance the aerodynamic efficiency and mechanical stability of wind turbine blades. By leveraging multi-objective optimization algorithms, the study seeks to simultaneously optimize aerodynamic performance metrics such as lift-to-drag ratio and power coefficient while ensuring structural integrity and minimizing fatigue loads on the turbine components. Furthermore, the investigation will explore the influence of various design parameters, including blade geometry, airfoil profiles, and turbine operating conditions, on the overall performance and stability of wind turbines. Through detailed parametric studies and sensitivity analyses, valuable insights into the complex interplay between aerodynamics and structural dynamics will be gained, facilitating the development of next-generation wind turbine designs. Ultimately, this research endeavours to contribute to the advancement of sustainable energy technologies by providing innovative solutions to enhance the efficiency, reliability, and economic viability of wind power generation systems. The findings have the potential to inform the design and optimization of wind turbines, leading to increased energy output, reduced maintenance costs, and greater environmental benefits in the transition towards a cleaner and more sustainable energy future.

Keywords: computation, robotics, mathematics, simulation

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46 Contrasted Mean and Median Models in Egyptian Stock Markets

Authors: Mai A. Ibrahim, Mohammed El-Beltagy, Motaz Khorshid

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Emerging Markets return distributions have shown significance departure from normality were they are characterized by fatter tails relative to the normal distribution and exhibit levels of skewness and kurtosis that constitute a significant departure from normality. Therefore, the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance is not applicable for emerging markets since it assumes normally-distributed returns (with zero skewness and kurtosis) and a quadratic utility function. Moreover, the Markowitz mean-variance analysis can be used in cases of moderate non-normality and it still provides a good approximation of the expected utility, but it may be ineffective under large departure from normality. Higher moments models and median models have been suggested in the literature for asset allocation in this case. Higher moments models have been introduced to account for the insufficiency of the description of a portfolio by only its first two moments while the median model has been introduced as a robust statistic which is less affected by outliers than the mean. Tail risk measures such as Value-at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) have been introduced instead of Variance to capture the effect of risk. In this research, higher moment models including the Mean-Variance-Skewness (MVS) and Mean-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis (MVSK) are formulated as single-objective non-linear programming problems (NLP) and median models including the Median-Value at Risk (MedVaR) and Median-Mean Absolute Deviation (MedMAD) are formulated as a single-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems. The higher moment models and median models are compared to some benchmark portfolios and tested on real financial data in the Egyptian main Index EGX30. The results show that all the median models outperform the higher moment models were they provide higher final wealth for the investor over the entire period of study. In addition, the results have confirmed the inapplicability of the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance to the Egyptian stock market as it resulted in very low realized profits.

Keywords: Egyptian stock exchange, emerging markets, higher moment models, median models, mixed-integer linear programming, non-linear programming

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45 Optimizing the Insertion of Renewables in the Colombian Power Sector

Authors: Felipe Henao, Yeny Rodriguez, Juan P. Viteri, Isaac Dyner

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Colombia is rich in natural resources and greatly focuses on the exploitation of water for hydroelectricity purposes. Alternative cleaner energy sources, such as solar and wind power, have been largely neglected despite: a) its abundance, b) the complementarities between hydro, solar and wind power, and c) the cost competitiveness of renewable technologies. The current limited mix of energy sources creates considerable weaknesses for the system, particularly when facing extreme dry weather conditions, such as El Niño event. In the past, El Niño have exposed the truly consequences of a system heavily dependent on hydropower, i.e. loss of power supply, high energy production costs, and loss of overall competitiveness for the country. Nonetheless, it is expected that the participation of hydroelectricity will increase in the near future. In this context, this paper proposes a stochastic lineal programming model to optimize the insertion of renewable energy systems (RES) into the Colombian electricity sector. The model considers cost-based generation competition between traditional energy technologies and alternative RES. This work evaluates the financial, environmental, and technical implications of different combinations of technologies. Various scenarios regarding the future evolution of costs of the technologies are considered to conduct sensitivity analysis of the solutions – to assess the extent of the participation of the RES in the Colombian power sector. Optimization results indicate that, even in the worst case scenario, where costs remain constant, the Colombian power sector should diversify its portfolio of technologies and invest strongly in solar and wind power technologies. The diversification through RES will contribute to make the system less vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, reduce the overall system costs, cut CO2 emissions, and decrease the chances of having national blackout events in the future. In contrast, the business as usual scenario indicates that the system will turn more costly and less reliable.

Keywords: energy policy and planning, stochastic programming, sustainable development, water management

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44 Constructivism and Situational Analysis as Background for Researching Complex Phenomena: Example of Inclusion

Authors: Radim Sip, Denisa Denglerova

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It’s impossible to capture complex phenomena, such as inclusion, with reductionism. The most common form of reductionism is the objectivist approach, where processes and relationships are reduced to entities and clearly outlined phases, with a consequent search for relationships between them. Constructivism as a paradigm and situational analysis as a methodological research portfolio represent a way to avoid the dominant objectivist approach. They work with a situation, i.e. with the essential blending of actors and their environment. Primary transactions are taking place between actors and their surroundings. Researchers create constructs based on their need to solve a problem. Concepts therefore do not describe reality, but rather a complex of real needs in relation to the available options how such needs can be met. For examination of a complex problem, corresponding methodological tools and overall design of the research are necessary. Using an original research on inclusion in the Czech Republic as an example, this contribution demonstrates that inclusion is not a substance easily described, but rather a relationship field changing its forms in response to its actors’ behaviour and current circumstances. Inclusion consists of dynamic relationship between an ideal, real circumstances and ways to achieve such ideal under the given circumstances. Such achievement has many shapes and thus cannot be captured by description of objects. It can be expressed in relationships in the situation defined by time and space. Situational analysis offers tools to examine such phenomena. It understands a situation as a complex of dynamically changing aspects and prefers relationships and positions in the given situation over a clear and final definition of actors, entities, etc. Situational analysis assumes creation of constructs as a tool for solving a problem at hand. It emphasizes the meanings that arise in the process of coordinating human actions, and the discourses through which these meanings are negotiated. Finally, it offers “cartographic tools” (situational maps, socials worlds / arenas maps, positional maps) that are able to capture the complexity in other than linear-analytical ways. This approach allows for inclusion to be described as a complex of phenomena taking place with a certain historical preference, a complex that can be overlooked if analyzed with a more traditional approach.

Keywords: constructivism, situational analysis, objective realism, reductionism, inclusion

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43 Effectiveness of Research Promotion Organizations in Higher Education and Research (ESR)

Authors: Jonas Sanon

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The valorization of research is becoming a transversal instrument linking different sectors (academic, public and industrial). The practice of valorization seems to impact innovation techniques within companies where, there is often the implementation of industrial conventions of training through research (CIFRE), continuous training programs for employees, collaborations and partnerships around joint research and R&D laboratories focused on the needs of companies to improve or develop more efficient innovations. Furthermore, many public initiatives to support innovation and technology transfer have been developed at the international, European and national levels, with significant budget allocations. Thus, in the context of this work, we tried to analyze the way in which research transfer structures are evaluated within the Saclay ecosystem. In fact, the University-Paris-Saclay is one of the best French universities; it is made up of 10 university components, more than 275 laboratories and is in partnership with the largest French research centers This work mainly focused on how evaluations affected research transfer structures, how evaluations were conducted, and what the managers of research transfer structures thought about assessments. Thus, with the aid of the conducted interviews, it appears that the evaluations do not have a significant impact on the qualitative aspect of research and innovation, but is rather present a directive aspect to allow the structures to benefit or not from the financial resources to develop certain research work, sometimes directed and influenced by the market, some researchers might try to accentuate their research and experimentation work on themes that are not necessarily their areas of interest, but just to comply with the calls for proposed thematic projects. The field studies also outline the primary indicators used to assess the effectiveness of valorization structures as "the number of start-ups generated, the license agreements signed, the structure's patent portfolio, and the innovations of items developed from public research.". Finally, after mapping the actors, it became clear that the ecosystem of the University of Paris-Saclay benefits from a richness allowing it to better value its research in relation to the three categories of actors it has (internal, external and transversal), united and linked by a relationship of proximity of sharing and endowed with a real opportunity to innovate openly.

Keywords: research valorization, technology transfer, innovation, evaluation, impacts and performances, innovation policy

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42 Investigating the English Speech Processing System of EFL Japanese Older Children

Authors: Hiromi Kawai

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This study investigates the nature of EFL older children’s L2 perceptive and productive abilities using classroom data, in order to find a pedagogical solution to the teaching of L2 sounds at an early stage of learning in a formal school setting. It is still inconclusive whether older children with only EFL formal school instruction at the initial stage of L2 learning are able to attain native-like perception and production in English within the very limited amount of exposure to the target language available. Based on the notion of the lack of study of EFL Japanese children’s acquisition of English segments, the researcher uses a model of L1 speech processing which was developed for investigating L1 English children’s speech and literacy difficulties using a psycholinguistic framework. The model is composed of input channel, output channel, and lexical representation, and examines how a child receives information from spoken or written language, remembers and stores it within the lexical representations and how the child selects and produces spoken or written words. Concerning language universality and language specificity in the language acquisitional process, the aim of finding any sound errors in L1 English children seemed to conform to the author’s intention to find abilities of English sounds in older Japanese children at the novice level of English in an EFL setting. 104 students in Grade 5 (between the ages of 10 and 11 years old) of an elementary school in Tokyo participated in this study. Four tests to measure their perceptive ability and three oral repetition tests to measure their productive ability were conducted with/without reference to lexical representation. All the test items were analyzed to calculate item facility (IF) indices, and correlational analyses and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) were conducted to examine the relationship between the receptive ability and the productive ability. IF analysis showed that (1) the participants were better at perceiving a segment than producing a segment, (2) they had difficulty in auditory discrimination of paired consonants when one of them does not exist in the Japanese inventory, (3) they had difficulty in both perceiving and producing English vowels, and (4) their L1 loan word knowledge had an influence on their ability to perceive and produce L2 sounds. The result of the Multiple Regression Modeling showed that the two production tests could predict the participants’ auditory ability of real words in English. The result of SEM showed that the hypothesis that perceptive ability affects productive ability was supported. Based on these findings, the author discusses the possible explicit method of teaching English segments to EFL older children in a formal school setting.

Keywords: EFL older children, english segments, perception, production, speech processing system

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41 Small and Medium Sized Ports between Specialisation and Diversification: A Framework Tool for Sustainable Development

Authors: Christopher Meyer, Laima Gerlitz

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European ports are facing high political pressure through the implementation of initiatives such as the European Green Deal or IMO's 2030 targets (Fit for 55). However, small and medium-sized ports face even higher challenges compared to bigger ones due to lower capacities in various fields such as investments, infra-structure, Human Resources, and funding opportunities. Small and Medium-Sized Ports (SMPs) roles in economic systems are various depending on their specific functionality in maritime ecosystems. Depending on their different situations, being an actor in multiport gateways, aligned to core ports, regional nodes in peripheries for the hinterland, specialized cluster members, or logistical nodes, different strategic business models may be applied to increase SMPs' competitiveness among other bigger ports. Additionally, SMPs are facing more challenges for future development in terms of digital and green transition of their operations. Thus, it is necessary to evaluate the own strategical position and apply management strategies alongside the regional growth and innovation strategies for diversification or specialisation of own port businesses. The research uses inductive perspectives to set up a transferable framework based on case studies to be analysed. In line with particular research and document analysis, qualitative approaches were considered. The research is based on a deep literature review on SMPs as well as theories on diversification and specialisation. Existing theories from different fields are evaluated on their application for the port sector and these specific maritime actors, paying respect to enabling innovation incorporation to enhance digital and environmental transition with fu-ture perspectives for SMPs. The paper aims to provide a decision-making matrix for the strategic positioning of SMPs in Europe, including opportunities to get access to particular EU funds for future development alongside the Regional In-novation Strategies on Smart Specialisation.

Keywords: strategic planning, sustainability transition, competitiveness portfolio, EU green deal

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40 An Empirical Investigation of Factors Influencing Construction Project Selection Processes within the Nigeria Public Sector

Authors: Emmanuel U. Unuafe, Oyegoke T. Bukoye, Sandhya Sastry, Yanqing Duan

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Globally, there is increasing interest in project management due to a shortage in infrastructure services supply capability. Hence, it is of utmost importance that organisations understand that choosing a particular project over another is an opportunity cost – tying up the organisations resources. In order to devise constructive ways to bring direction, structure, and oversight to the process of project selection has led to the development of tools and techniques by researchers and practitioners. However, despite the development of various frameworks to assist in the appraisal and selection of government projects, failures are still being recorded with government projects. In developing countries, where frameworks are rarely used, the problems are compounded. To improve the situation, this study will investigate the current practice of construction project selection processes within the Nigeria public sector in order to inform theories of decision making from the perspective of developing nations and project management practice. Unlike other research around construction projects in Nigeria this research concentrate on factors influencing the selection process within the Nigeria public sector, which has received limited study. The authors report the findings of semi-structured interviews of top management in the Nigerian public sector and draw conclusions in terms of decision making extant theory and current practice. Preliminary results from the data analysis show that groups make project selection decisions and this forces sub-optimal decisions due to pressure on time, clashes of interest, lack of standardised framework for selecting projects, lack of accountability and poor leadership. Consequently, because decision maker is usually drawn from different fields, religious beliefs, ethnic group and with different languages. The choice of a project by an individual will be greatly influence by experience, political precedence than by realistic investigation as well as his understanding of the desired outcome of the project, in other words, the individual’s ideology and their level of fairness.

Keywords: factors influencing project selection, public sector construction project selection, projects portfolio selection, strategic decision-making

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39 Housing Price Dynamics: Comparative Study of 1980-1999 and the New Millenium

Authors: Janne Engblom, Elias Oikarinen

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The understanding of housing price dynamics is of importance to a great number of agents: to portfolio investors, banks, real estate brokers and construction companies as well as to policy makers and households. A panel dataset is one that follows a given sample of individuals over time, and thus provides multiple observations on each individual in the sample. Panel data models include a variety of fixed and random effects models which form a wide range of linear models. A special case of panel data models is dynamic in nature. A complication regarding a dynamic panel data model that includes the lagged dependent variable is endogeneity bias of estimates. Several approaches have been developed to account for this problem. In this paper, the panel models were estimated using the Common Correlated Effects estimator (CCE) of dynamic panel data which also accounts for cross-sectional dependence which is caused by common structures of the economy. In presence of cross-sectional dependence standard OLS gives biased estimates. In this study, U.S housing price dynamics were examined empirically using the dynamic CCE estimator with first-difference of housing price as the dependent and first-differences of per capita income, interest rate, housing stock and lagged price together with deviation of housing prices from their long-run equilibrium level as independents. These deviations were also estimated from the data. The aim of the analysis was to provide estimates with comparisons of estimates between 1980-1999 and 2000-2012. Based on data of 50 U.S cities over 1980-2012 differences of short-run housing price dynamics estimates were mostly significant when two time periods were compared. Significance tests of differences were provided by the model containing interaction terms of independents and time dummy variable. Residual analysis showed very low cross-sectional correlation of the model residuals compared with the standard OLS approach. This means a good fit of CCE estimator model. Estimates of the dynamic panel data model were in line with the theory of housing price dynamics. Results also suggest that dynamics of a housing market is evolving over time.

Keywords: dynamic model, panel data, cross-sectional dependence, interaction model

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38 Support for Refugee Entrepreneurs Through International Aid

Authors: Julien Benomar

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The World Bank report published in April 2023 called “Migrants, Refugees and Society” allows us to first distinguish migrants in search of economic opportunities and refugees that flee a situation of danger and choose their destination based on their immediate need for safety. Amongst those two categories, the report distinguished people having professional skills adapted to the labor market of the host country and those who have not. Out of that distinction of four categories, we choose to focus our research on refugees that do not have professional skills adapted to the labor market of the host country. Given that refugees generally have no recourse to public assistance schemes and cannot count on the support of their entourage or support network, we propose to examine the extent to which external assistance, such as international humanitarian action, is likely to accompany refugees' transition to financial empowerment through entrepreneurship. To this end, we propose to carry out a case study structured in three stages: (i) an exchange with a Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO) active in supporting refugee populations from Congo and Burundi to Rwanda, enabling us to (i.i) define together a financial empowerment income, and (i. ii) learn about the content of the support measures taken for the beneficiaries of the humanitarian project; (ii) monitor the population of 118 beneficiaries, including 73 refugees and 45 Rwandans (reference population); (iii) conduct a participatory analysis to identify the level of performance of the project and areas for improvement. The case study thus involved the staff of an international NGO active in helping refugees from Rwanda since 2015 and the staff of a Luxembourg NGO that has been funding this economic aid project through entrepreneurship since 2021. The case study thus involved the staff of an international NGO active in helping refugees from Rwanda since 2015 and the staff of a Luxembourg NGO, which has been funding this economic aid through an entrepreneurship project since 2021, and took place over a 48-day period between April and May 2023. The main results are of two types: (i) the need to associate indicators for monitoring the impact of the project on the indirect beneficiaries of the project (refugee community) and (ii) the identification of success factors making it possible to bring concrete and relevant responses to the constraints encountered. The first result thus made it possible to identify the following indicators: Indicator of community potential ((jobs, training or mentoring) promoted by the activity of the entrepreneur), Indicator of social contribution (tax paid by the entrepreneur), Indicator of resilience (savings and loan capacity generated, and finally impact on social cohesion. The second result made it possible to identify that among the 7 success factors tested, the sector of activity chosen and the level of experience in the sector of the future activity are those that stand out the most clearly.

Keywords: entrepreuneurship, refugees, financial empowerment, international aid

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