Search results for: Random Forest

Authors: Surya R. Niraula, Devendra B Chhetry, Girish K. Singh, S. Nagesh, Frederick A. Connell

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Background: Although random sampling is generally considered to be the gold standard for population-based research, the majority of drug abuse research is based on non-random sampling despite the well-known limitations of this kind of sampling. Method: We compared the statistical properties of two surveys of drug abuse in the same community: one using snowball sampling of drug users who then identified “friend controls” and the other using a random sample of non-drug users (controls) who then identified “friend cases.” Models to predict drug abuse based on risk factors were developed for each data set using conditional logistic regression. We compared the precision of each model using bootstrapping method and the predictive properties of each model using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Results: Analysis of 100 random bootstrap samples drawn from the snowball-sample data set showed a wide variation in the standard errors of the beta coefficients of the predictive model, none of which achieved statistical significance. One the other hand, bootstrap analysis of the random-sample data set showed less variation, and did not change the significance of the predictors at the 5% level when compared to the non-bootstrap analysis. Comparison of the area under the ROC curves using the model derived from the random-sample data set was similar when fitted to either data set (0.93, for random-sample data vs. 0.91 for snowball-sample data, p=0.35); however, when the model derived from the snowball-sample data set was fitted to each of the data sets, the areas under the curve were significantly different (0.98 vs. 0.83, p < .001). Conclusion: The proposed method of random sampling of controls appears to be superior from a statistical perspective to snowball sampling and may represent a viable alternative to snowball sampling.

Keywords: drug abuse, matched case-control study, non-probability sampling, probability sampling

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Authors: Pius Akindele Adeniyi

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Developing countries including Nigeria are greatly saddled with problems emanating from environmental deterioration. These problems are glaringly threatening the existence of mankind. A wide range of factors contribute to environmental problems and prominent among these are: increase in human population, deforestation, industrialization, urbanization, ignorance and socio-economic activities. The economic function of the forest has for quite a long time played a major role in the economic life of the people of Nigeria while the social function such as the recreational use of the forest has until today play very little role in the cultural development of the country. Recreation forest ameliorates the environment, reduces psychological stress, and broadens individual outlook and horizon. Unfortunately domestic tourism of recreational forest is not developed and almost unknown due to poverty and non existence of recreational facilities. Social forestry is seen as a sustainable means of combating ecological problems especially in third world countries such as Nigeria. The programme also provides social and economic benefits to the rural people. As a rural-based activity, people's participation is crucial for its success. There is need to create awareness on recreational forestry and social forestry as well as harness their resources for the country .This paper therefore highlights the constraints in the practice of social and recreational forestry in developing countries and suggests ways to motivate the rural people to participate in the programme. . Attempt has been made to trace the causes and consequences of Nigerian environmental deterioration, while suggestions on possible solutions are proffered .

Keywords: recreational, social, deteriorating, forestry

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Authors: Manpreet Kaur

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When legitimate credit card users are mistakenly labelled as fraudulent in numerous financial delated applications, there are numerous ethical problems. The innovative machine learning approach we have suggested in this research outperforms the current models and shows how to model a data set for credit card fraud detection while minimizing false positives. As a result, we advise using random forests as the best machine learning method for predicting and identifying credit card transaction fraud. The majority of victims of these fraudulent transactions were discovered to be credit card users over the age of 60, with a higher percentage of fraudulent transactions taking place between the specific hours.

Keywords: automated fraud detection, isolation forest method, local outlier factor, ML algorithm, credit card

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Authors: Peter M. Maurer Maurer

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DGL is a context free grammar-based tool for generating random data. Many types of simulator input data require some computation to be placed in the proper format. For example, it might be necessary to generate ordered triples in which the third element is the sum of the first two elements, or it might be necessary to generate random numbers in some sorted order. Although DGL is universal in computational power, generating these types of data is extremely difficult. To overcome this problem, we have enhanced DGL to include features that permit direct computation within the structure of a context free grammar. The features have been implemented as special types of productions, preserving the context free flavor of DGL specifications.

Keywords: DGL, Enhanced Context Free Grammars, Programming Constructs, Random Data Generation

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Authors: Muhammad Nurrizka Ramadhan

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Today,Demand for wood increase in rapid rate. Wood is widely used for many things range from building materials to furniture materials. This makes the forest area in Indonesia dropped dramatically, it is estimated that the area of Indonesiaan forest in 2020 will be only about 16 million hectares. The more forest in Indonesia loss, people are required to look for another material to subtitute wood for the furniture. Jepara, a city with the largest furniture industry in Indonesia, requires a large supply of wood, it can reach 300.000 – 500.000 cubic meters per year. Most of the furniture in Jepara use teak, mahogany, and rosewood. Though teak wood is a rare species that must be protected. Today the availability of bamboo in Indonesia is very big. With cheap price, and the period of rapid growth makes bamboo can be used as a substitute for wood for the furniture industry in the future. By making use bamboo to make wood bamboo composite to replace the use of wood for furniture material. This paper is about the use of bamboo as a substitute for wood bamboo composite for the furniture industry. Expected in future, wood can be replaced by a wood bamboo composite.

Keywords: bamboo, composite, furniture, wood

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Authors: Lu Ren, You-Liang Fang, Yan-Gang Zhao

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In recent years, the application of BIM (Building Information Modelling) to construction schedule plan has been the focus of more and more researchers. In order to assess the reasonable level of the BIM-based construction schedule plan, that is whether the schedule can be completed on time, some researchers have introduced reliability theory to evaluate. In the process of evaluation, the uncertain factors affecting the construction schedule plan are regarded as random variables, and probability distributions of the random variables are assumed to be normal distribution, which is determined using two parameters evaluated from the mean and standard deviation of statistical data. However, in practical engineering, most of the uncertain influence factors are not normal random variables. So the evaluation results of the construction schedule plan will be unreasonable under the assumption that probability distributions of random variables submitted to the normal distribution. Therefore, in order to get a more reasonable evaluation result, it is necessary to describe the distribution of random variables more comprehensively. For this purpose, cubic normal distribution is introduced in this paper to describe the distribution of arbitrary random variables, which is determined by the first four moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis). In this paper, building the BIM model firstly according to the design messages of the structure and making the construction schedule plan based on BIM, then the cubic normal distribution is used to describe the distribution of the random variables due to the collecting statistical data of the random factors influencing construction schedule plan. Next the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM can be carried out more reasonably. Finally, the more accurate evaluation results can be given providing reference for the implementation of the actual construction schedule plan. In the last part of this paper, the more efficiency and accuracy of the proposed methodology for the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM are conducted through practical engineering case.

Keywords: BIM, construction schedule plan, cubic normal distribution, reliability analysis

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Authors: Liang-Hsuan Chen, Chia-Jung Chang

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Fuzzy random variables have been introduced as an imprecise concept of numeric values for characterizing the imprecise knowledge. The descriptive parameters can be used to describe the primary features of a set of fuzzy random observations. In fuzzy environments, the expected values are usually represented as fuzzy-valued, interval-valued or numeric-valued descriptive parameters using various metrics. Instead of the concept of area metric that is usually adopted in the relevant studies, the numeric expected value is proposed by the concept of distance metric in this study based on two characters (fuzziness and randomness) of FRVs. Comparing with the existing measures, although the results show that the proposed numeric expected value is same with those using the different metric, if only triangular membership functions are used. However, the proposed approach has the advantages of intuitiveness and computational efficiency, when the membership functions are not triangular types. An example with three datasets is provided for verifying the proposed approach.

Keywords: fuzzy random variables, distance measure, expected value, descriptive parameters

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Authors: Abdul-Razak Saeed

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Addressing the climate change crisis that this generation faces has evolved to include the consideration of a policy mechanism referred to as reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation with plus components of conservation, sustainable forest management and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+). REDD+ emerged from the International level of UNFCCC but its implementation is by developing countries. It challenges the development paradigm of nations that depend on the unsustainable clearing of forests and land use change for economic development whilst posing as an opportunity or risk for forest community livelihoods, institutions and their interaction with the forest resources. As a novel policy mechanism, it is imperative to gain global insight into local contexts of its implementation and to understand local level mobilization of their agency for institutional sustainability as reconfigured by new carbon economy initiatives like REDD+. Using a systematic review process, as the initial stages of this study, secondary data of REDD+ projects across the globe were evaluated to pick up gaps in research and that of on ground REDD+ implementation. Primary data was gathered from 30 actors in the government, NGO, private sector and traditional authorities using face-to-face semi structured interviews in Ghana; participation in meetings and workshops and policy and strategy document reviews. Preliminary findings of the study include REDD+ knowledge being a key determinant of power distribution and affects who shapes the process; in Ghana, informal relationships are playing key roles in advancing REDD+ unlike in traditional forestry and a subjectivity shift of local communities from an 'emotive-link' of environmental care to one of 'economic self-seeking and enriching' domain of thought.

Keywords: climate change, communities, forests, REDD+

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Authors: Hongmin Deng, Qionghua Wang

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A modified two dimensional (2D) logistic map based on cross feedback control is proposed. This 2D map exhibits more random chaotic dynamical properties than the classic one dimensional (1D) logistic map in the statistical characteristics analysis. So it is utilized as the pseudo-random (PN) sequence generator, where the obtained real-valued PN sequence is quantized at first, then applied to radio frequency identification (RFID) communication system in this paper. This system is experimentally validated on a cortex-M₀ development board, which shows the effectiveness in key generation, the size of key space and security. At last, further cryptanalysis is studied through the test suite in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

Keywords: chaos encryption, logistic map, pseudo-random sequence, RFID

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Authors: Shantosa Yudha Siswanto, Rachmat Harryanto

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The aim of the research was to investigate the effect of land use and slope steepness on soil erodibility index. The research was conducted from September to December 2013 in Mekarwangi catchment area, sub watershed of Cikapundung Hulu, Indonesia. The study was carried out using descriptive method. Physiographic free survey method was used as survey method, it was a survey based on land physiographic appearance. Soil sampling was carried out into transect on the similarity of slope without calculating the range between points of observation. Soil samples were carried onto three classes of land use such as: forest, plantation and dry cultivation area. Each land use consists of three slope classes such as: 8-15%, 16-25%, and 26-40% class. Five samples of soil were taken from each of them, resulting 45 points of observation. The result of the research showed that type of land use and slope classes gave different effect on soil erodibility. The highest C-organic and permeability was found on forest with slope 16-25%. Slope of 8-15% with forest land use give the lowest effect on soil erodibility.

Keywords: land use, slope, erodibility, erosion

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Authors: Shathya Duobiene, Gediminas Račiukaitis

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Solar-powered wireless sensor nodes work best when they operate continuously with minimal energy consumption. Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are a new technology opens up wide studies, and advancements are expanding the prevalence of numerous monitoring applications and real-time aid for environments. The Selective Surface Activation Induced by Laser (SSAIL) technology is an exciting development that gives the design of WSNs more flexibility in terms of their shape, dimensions, and materials. This research work proposes a methodology for using SSAIL technology for forest ecosystem monitoring by wireless sensor networks. WSN monitoring the temperature and humidity were deployed, and their architectures are discussed. The paper presents the experimental outcomes of deploying newly built sensor nodes in forested areas. Finally, a practical method is offered to extend the WSN's lifespan and ensure its continued operation. When operational, the node is independent of the base station's power supply and uses only as much energy as necessary to sense and transmit data.

Keywords: internet of things (IoT), wireless sensor network, sensor nodes, SSAIL technology, forest ecosystem

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Authors: Halil Ibrahim Demir, Caner Erden, Abdullah Hulusi Kokcam, Mumtaz Ipek

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Process planning, scheduling, and due date assignment are three important manufacturing functions which are studied independently in literature. There are hundreds of works on IPPS and SWDDA problems but a few works on IPPSDDA problem. Integrating these three functions is very crucial due to the high relationship between them. Since the scheduling problem is in the NP-Hard problem class without any integration, an integrated problem is even harder to solve. This study focuses on the integration of these functions. Sum of weighted tardiness, earliness, and due date related costs are used as a penalty function. Random search and hybrid metaheuristics are used to solve the integrated problem. Marginal improvement in random search is very high in the early iterations and reduces enormously in later iterations. At that point directed search contribute to marginal improvement more than random search. In this study, random and genetic search methods are combined to find better solutions. Results show that overall performance becomes better as the integration level increases.

Keywords: process planning, genetic algorithm, hybrid search, random search, weighted due-date assignment, weighted scheduling

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Authors: Md Mizanur Rahman, Lotanna Micah Nneji, Adeola C. Adeniyi, Edem Archibong Eniang, Abiodun B. Onadeko, Felista Kasyoka Kilunda, Babatunde E. Adedeji, Ifeanyi C. Nneji, Adiaha A. A. Ugwumba, Jie-Qiong Jin, Min-Sheng Peng, Caroline Olory, Nsikan Eninekit, Jing Che

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Nigeria contains a number of forest habitats that believed to host highly rich amphibian diversity. However, a dearth of herpetological studies has restricted information on the amphibian diversity in Nigeria. To cover the gap of knowledge, this study focused field surveys on relatively less studied forests–Afi Forest Reserve and Ikpan forest ecosystem. The goal of this study is to make a checklist and to investigate the habitat preferences of amphibians in these two forests. The study areas were surveyed between August 2018 and July 2019 following visual and acoustic methods. Individuals were identified using the morphological and molecular (16S ribosomal RNA) approach. Literature searches were conducted to document additional species that were not encountered during the current field surveys. Using the observational records and arrays of diversity indices, the patterns of species richness and abundance across habitat types were evaluated. Voucher specimens and tissue samples were deposited in the museums of the Department of Zoology, University of Ibadan Nigeria, and the remainder at the Kunming Institute of Zoology (KIZ), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, China. The result of this study revealed the presence of 30 and 31 amphibian species from the Afi Forest Reserve and the Ikpan Forest Ecosystem, respectively. There were two unidentified species from AFR and one from IFE. In total, 324 individuals of amphibian species were observed from the two study areas. Forest and swamps showed high species diversity and richness than the agricultural field and savannah. Savannah and agricultural fields had the highest similarity in the species composition. Given the increased human disturbances and consequent threats to these forests, this study offers recommendations for the initiation of conservation plans immediately.

Keywords: biodiversity, conservation, cryptic species, ecology, integrated taxonomy, species inventory

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Authors: Nini Johana Marín Rodríguez, William Fernando Oquendo Patino

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In this work, we model a coupled system where we explore the effects of steady and random behavior on a linear system like an extension of the classic Strogatz model. This is exemplified by modeling a couple love dynamics as a linear system of two coupled differential equations and studying its stability for four types of lovers chosen as CC='Cautious- Cautious', OO='Only other feelings', OP='Opposites' and RR='Romeo the Robot'. We explore the effects of, first, introducing saturation, and second, adding a random variation to one of the CC-type lover, which will shape his character by trying to model how its variability influences the dynamics between love and hate in couple in a long run relationship. This work could also be useful to model other kind of systems where interactions can be modeled as linear systems with external or internal random influence. We found the final results are not easy to predict and a strong dependence on initial conditions appear, which a signature of chaos.

Keywords: differential equations, dynamical systems, linear system, love dynamics

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Authors: Tahere Fazilat

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Caspian red deer or maral (Cervus elaphus maral) is the largest type of deer in iran. Maral in the past has lived in the north forests of Iran from the Caspian sea coast, Alborz mountains chain and oak forest of Zagros margin from the Azarbaijan up to fars province. However, the generation of them was completely destroyed in the north west and west of Iran. According to reports about 50 years and out of reach of humans. In the present studies, data were collected from 2004 to 2014 in the Mazandaran state Hyrcanian forest by means of guard of environment and justiciary office of department of environment of Mazandaran in this process the all arrested illegal hunting of red deer and the population census, estimation and the correlation of these data was assayed. We provide a first evaluation of how suitable these methods are by comparing the results with population estimates obtained using cohort analysis, and by analyzing the within-season variation in number of seen deer. The data gave us the future of red deer in northern forest of Iran and the results of policy of department of environment in Iran in red deer conservation.

Keywords: illegal hunting, red deer, census, concervation

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Authors: Pulakesh Das, Mukunda Dev Behera, Manchiraju Sri Ramachandra Murthy

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Large numbers of people living in and around the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, depends on this diverse mountainous region for ecosystem services. Following the global trend, this region also experiencing rapid population growth, and demand for timber and agriculture land. The eight countries sharing the HKH region have different forest resources utilization and conservation policies that exert varying forces in the forest ecosystem. This created a variable spatial as well altitudinal gradient in rate of deforestation and corresponding forest patch fragmentation. The quantitative relationship between fragmentation and demography has not been established before for HKH vis-à-vis along elevation gradient. This current study was carried out to attribute the overall and different nature in landscape fragmentations along the altitudinal gradient with the demography of each sharing countries. We have used the tree canopy cover data derived from Landsat data to analyze the deforestation and afforestation rate, and corresponding landscape fragmentation observed during 2000 – 2010. Area-weighted mean radius of gyration (AMN radius of gyration) was computed owing to its advantage as spatial indicator of fragmentation over non-spatial fragmentation indices. Using the subtraction method, the change in fragmentation was computed during 2000 – 2010. Using the tree canopy cover data as a surrogate of forest cover, highest forest loss was observed in Myanmar followed by China, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Bhutan, and Afghanistan. However, the sequence of fragmentation was different after the maximum fragmentation observed in Myanmar followed by India, China, Bangladesh, and Bhutan; whereas increase in fragmentation was seen following the sequence of as Nepal, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Using SRTM-derived DEM, we observed higher rate of fragmentation up to 2400m that corroborated with high human population for the year 2000 and 2010. To derive the nature of fragmentation along the altitudinal gradients, the Statistica software was used, where the user defined function was utilized for regression applying the Gauss-Newton estimation method with 50 iterations. We observed overall logarithmic decrease in fragmentation change (area-weighted mean radius of gyration), forest cover loss and population growth during 2000-2010 along the elevation gradient with very high R2 values (i.e., 0.889, 0.895, 0.944 respectively). The observed negative logarithmic function with the major contribution in the initial elevation gradients suggest to gap filling afforestation in the lower altitudes to enhance the forest patch connectivity. Our finding on the pattern of forest fragmentation and human population across the elevation gradient in HKH region will have policy level implication for different nations and would help in characterizing hotspots of change. Availability of free satellite derived data products on forest cover and DEM, grid-data on demography, and utility of geospatial tools helped in quick evaluation of the forest fragmentation vis-a-vis human impact pattern along the elevation gradient in HKH.

Keywords: area-weighted mean radius of gyration, fragmentation, human impact, tree canopy cover

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Authors: Mohammadamin Abbasnejad

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The analysis of expression and facial Action Units (AUs) detection are very important tasks in fields of computer vision and Human Computer Interaction (HCI) due to the wide range of applications in human life. Many works have been done during the past few years which has their own advantages and disadvantages. In this work, we present a new model based on Gaussian Conditional Random Field. We solve our objective problem using ADMM and we show how well the proposed model works. We train and test our work on two facial expression datasets, CK+, and RU-FACS. Experimental evaluation shows that our proposed approach outperform state of the art expression recognition.

Keywords: Gaussian Conditional Random Field, ADMM, convergence, gradient descent

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Authors: Tejaswi Agarwal, Amritansh Agarwal

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Forest ecosystem plays very important role in the global carbon cycle. It stores about 80% of all above ground and 40% of all below ground terrestrial organic carbon. There is much interest in the extent of tropical forests and their rates of deforestation for two reasons: greenhouse gas contributions and the impact of profoundly negative biodiversity. Deforestation has many ecological, social and economic consequences, one of which is the loss of biological diversity. The rapid deployment of remote sensing (RS) satellites and development of RS analysis techniques in the past three decades have provided a reliable, effective, and practical way to characterize terrestrial ecosystem properties. Global estimates of tropical deforestation vary widely and range from 50,000 to 170,000km2 /yr Recent FAO tropical deforestation estimates for 1990–1995 cite 116,756km2 / yr globally. Remote Sensing can prove to be a very useful tool in monitoring of forests and associated deforestation to a sufficient level of accuracy without the need of physically surveying the forest areas as many of them are physically inaccessible. The methodology for the assessment of forest cover using digital image processing (ERDAS) has been followed. The satellite data for the study was procured from Indian institute of remote Sensing (IIRS), Dehradoon in the digital format. While procuring the satellite data, care was taken to ensure that the data was cloud free and did not belong to dry and leafless season. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been used as a numerical indicator of the reduction in ground biomass. NDVI = (near I.R - Red)/ (near I.R + Red). After calculating the NDVI variations and associated mean, we have analysed the change in ground biomass. Through this paper, we have tried to indicate the rate of deforestation over a given period of time by comparing the forest cover at different time intervals. With the help of remote sensing and GIS techniques, it is clearly shown that the total forest cover is continuously degrading and transforming into various land use/land cover category.

Keywords: remote sensing, deforestation, supervised classification, NDVI, change detection

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Authors: Carolina Nunes, Sónia Ribeiro, Hélio Faustinho, Hélia Sales, Rita Pontes, João Nunes

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Pine resin activity in Portugal was one of the most important and major non-wood forestry, representing a strategic natural resource for Portuguese Bioeconomy and an important social activity for rural regions. Pine forests representing a stock of atmospheric carbon, contributing to greenhouse effect mitigation and social and environmental important services returns. They are important sources of numerous useful products, including not only wood and cellulose but also nonwood products used by the chemical, food, and pharmaceutical industries, as well as for biorefineries. Portuguese pine forest area decreases from 1 million hectares to 400 mil hectares in the last 20 years. Portugal, in 80´s decade, was one of the world´s TOP 3 producers, with a middle annual production of 140 mil tones.year-1. With the pressure of the social desertification, forest fires, phytosanitary problems (e.g. nematode of the pine wood) and the decrease of economic value and competitivity of the Portuguese forest, the actual middle annual production is less than 10 mil tones.year-1 (lesser 92%). This significant decrease representing an annual economic loss of approximately 130-140 million Euros. year⁻¹ for forest primary sector in Portugal. The Biopinus project design new forestry approach and strategic biotechnologies knowledge to increase the economic value of Pine resin in Portugal, with an impact on the growth of the economic value of Pine resin from 1,1 to 1,5 Euros/kg.

Keywords: pine resin, bioeconomy, economic value, biotecnology

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Marlen Acosta Alamo, Lisa Manne, Richard Veit

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Habitat loss due to land use change is one of the leading causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. This form of habitat loss is a non-random phenomenon since the same environmental factors that make an area suitable for supporting high local biodiversity overlap with those that make it attractive for urban development. We aimed to compare the effect of two non-random habitat loss predictors on the richness, abundance, and rarity of nature-affiliated and human-affiliated North American breeding birds. For each group of birds, we simulated the non-random habitat loss using two predictors: the House Price Index as a measure of the attractiveness of an area for humans and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy for primary productivity. We compared the results of the two non-random simulation sets and one set of random habitat loss simulations using an analysis of variance and followed up with a Tukey-Kramer test when appropriate. The attractiveness of an area for humans predicted estimates of richness loss and increase of rarity higher than primary productivity and random habitat loss for nature-affiliated and human-affiliated birds. For example, at 50% of habitat loss, the attractiveness of an area for humans produced estimates of richness at least 5% lower and of a rarity at least 40% higher than primary productivity and random habitat loss for both groups of birds. Only for the species abundance of nature-affiliated birds, the attractiveness of an area for humans did not outperform primary productivity as a predictor of biodiversity following habitat loss. We demonstrated the value of the House Price Index, which can be used in conservation assessments as an index of the risks of habitat loss for natural communities. Thus, our results have relevant implications for sustainable urban land-use planning practices and can guide stakeholders and developers in their efforts to conserve local biodiversity.

Keywords: biodiversity loss, bird biodiversity, house price index, non-random habitat loss

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Authors: Mohammad H. Taheri, David J. Brown, Nasser Sherkat

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Engagement is one of the most important factors in determining successful outcomes and deep learning in students. Existing approaches to detect student engagement involve periodic human observations that are subject to inter-rater reliability. Our solution uses real-time multimodal multisensor data labeled by objective performance outcomes to infer the engagement of students. The study involves four students with a combined diagnosis of cerebral palsy and a learning disability who took part in a 3-month trial over 59 sessions. Multimodal multisensor data were collected while they participated in a continuous performance test. Eye gaze, electroencephalogram, body pose, and interaction data were used to create a model of student engagement through objective labeling from the continuous performance test outcomes. In order to achieve this, a type of continuous performance test is introduced, the Seek-X type. Nine features were extracted including high-level handpicked compound features. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, a series of different machine learning approaches were evaluated. Overall, the random forest classification approach achieved the best classification results. Using random forest, 93.3% classification for engagement and 42.9% accuracy for disengagement were achieved. We compared these results to outcomes from different models: AdaBoost, decision tree, k-Nearest Neighbor, naïve Bayes, neural network, and support vector machine. We showed that using a multisensor approach achieved higher accuracy than using features from any reduced set of sensors. We found that using high-level handpicked features can improve the classification accuracy in every sensor mode. Our approach is robust to both sensor fallout and occlusions. The single most important sensor feature to the classification of engagement and distraction was shown to be eye gaze. It has been shown that we can accurately predict the level of engagement of students with learning disabilities in a real-time approach that is not subject to inter-rater reliability, human observation or reliant on a single mode of sensor input. This will help teachers design interventions for a heterogeneous group of students, where teachers cannot possibly attend to each of their individual needs. Our approach can be used to identify those with the greatest learning challenges so that all students are supported to reach their full potential.

Keywords: affective computing in education, affect detection, continuous performance test, engagement, flow, HCI, interaction, learning disabilities, machine learning, multimodal, multisensor, physiological sensors, student engagement

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Authors: Rashmi Nautiyal, Sudhir Singh

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Encyrtidae is the largest family of superfamily Chalcidoidea of parasitic Hymenoptera group. They are endoparasitoids or hyperparasitoids of other arthropods and have the greatest impact on maintaining diversity. It not only forms a major component of diversity itself but also is very important in sustaining diversity in other groups. They are used as efficient biological control agents against key insect pests world over. The present study is based on the collection of Encyrtidae (Chalcidoidea: Hymenoptera) made during a survey in Doon Valley from 2008 to 2011 in all the five seasons (Spring, Summer cum Pre-monsoon, Monsoon, Post-monsoon, Winter) for each year. The collections were made from forest habitat in different localities of the Valley using sweep net and yellow pan trap methods. A total of 1346 specimens of encyrtids were collected and identified from the forest habitat (745 with a sweep net and 601with yellow pan trap).Of these, season-wise (post monsoon, spring, summer, monsoon, and winter) represented Encyrtids were 30.46%, 19.31%, 17.16%, 16.64% and 16.41%, respectively. A total of 161 species of Encyrtids belonging to 43 genera under 2 subfamilies were recorded.

Keywords: diversity, Encyrtidae, sweep net, yellow pan

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Authors: Awol Seid Ebrie

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HIV results as an incurable disease, AIDS. After a person is infected with virus, the virus gradually destroys all the infection fighting cells called CD4 cells and makes the individual susceptible to opportunistic infections which cause severe or fatal health problems. Several studies show that the CD4 cells count is the most determinant indicator of the effectiveness of the treatment or progression of the disease. The objective of this paper is to investigate the progression of the disease over time among patient under HAART treatment. Two main approaches of the generalized multilevel ordinal models; namely the proportional odds model and the nonproportional odds model have been applied to the HAART data. Also, the multilevel part of both models includes random intercepts and random coefficients. In general, four models are explored in the analysis and then the models are compared using the deviance information criteria. Of these models, the random coefficients nonproportional odds model is selected as the best model for the HAART data used as it has the smallest DIC value. The selected model shows that the progression of the disease increases as the time under the treatment increases. In addition, it reveals that gender, baseline clinical stage and functional status of the patient have a significant association with the progression of the disease.

Keywords: nonproportional odds model, proportional odds model, random coefficients model, random intercepts model

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Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege, Azeez Adeboye, Akinwumi Odeyemi

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The basic model usually used in disease mapping, is the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and which combines the spatially structured and spatially unstructured priors as random effects. Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is a disease mapping method that is commonly used for smoothening the relative risk of any disease as used in the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model. This model (CAR), which is also usually assigned as a prior to one of the spatial random effects in the BYM model, successfully uses information from adjacent sites to improve estimates for individual sites. To our knowledge, there are some unrealistic or counter-intuitive consequences on the posterior covariance matrix of the CAR prior for the spatial random effects. In the conventional BYM (Besag, York and Mollie) model, the spatially structured and the unstructured random components cannot be seen independently, and which challenges the prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to construct and utilize an extended Bayesian spatial CAR model for studying tuberculosis patterns in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, and then compare for flexibility with some existing CAR models. The results of the study revealed the flexibility and robustness of this alternative extended CAR to the commonly used CAR models by comparison, using the deviance information criteria. The extended Bayesian spatial CAR model is proved to be a useful and robust tool for disease modeling and as a prior for the structured spatial random effects because of the inclusion of an extra hyperparameter.

Keywords: Besag2, CAR models, disease mapping, INLA, spatial models

Procedia PDF Downloads 282

Authors: Amrita Sen

Abstract:

In the face of a growing insurgent movement and the perceived failure of the state and the market towards sustainable resource management, a range of decentralized forest management policies was formulated in the last two decades, which recognized the need for community representations within the statutory methods of forest management. The recognition conceded on the virtues of ecological sustainability and traditional environmental knowledge, which were considered to be the principal repositories of the forest dependent communities. The present study, in the light of empirical insights, reflects on the contemporary disjunctions between the preconceived communitarian ethic in environmentalism and the lived reality of forest based life-worlds. Many of the popular as well as dominant ideologies, which have historically shaped the conceptual and theoretical understanding of sociology, needs further perusal in the context of the emerging contours of empirical knowledge, which lends opportunities for substantive reworking and analysis. The image of the community appears to be one of those concepts, an identity which has for long defined perspectives and processes associated with people living together harmoniously in small physical spaces. Through an ethnographic account of the implementation of Joint Forest Management (JFM) in a forest fringe village in Sundarban, the study explores the ways in which the idea of ‘community’ gets transformed through the process of state-making, rendering the necessity of its departure from the standard, conventional definition of homogeneity and internal equity. The study necessitates an attention towards the anthropology of micro-politics, disaggregating an essentially constructivist anthropology of ‘collective identities’, which can render the visibility of political mobilizations plausible within the seemingly culturalist production of communities. The two critical questions that the paper seeks to ask in this context are: how the ‘local’ is constituted within community based conservation practices? Within the efforts of collaborative forest management, how accurately does the depiction of ‘indigenous environmental knowledge’, subscribe to its role of sustainable conservation practices? Reflecting on the execution of JFM in Sundarban, the study critically explores the ways in which the state ceases to be ‘trans-national’ and interacts with the rural life-worlds through its local factions. Simultaneously, the study attempts to articulate the scope of constructing a competing representation of community, shaped by increasing political negotiations and bureaucratic alignments which strains against the usual preoccupations with tradition primordiality and non material culture as well as the amorous construction of indigeneity.

Keywords: community, environmentalism, JFM, state-making, identities, indigenous

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Authors: Bilel Chalghaf, Mathieu Varin

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Forest characterization in Quebec, Canada, is usually assessed based on photo-interpretation at the stand level. For species identification, this often results in a lack of precision. Very high spatial resolution imagery, such as DigitalGlobe, and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), have the potential to overcome the limitations of aerial imagery. To date, few studies have used that data to map a large number of species at the tree level using machine learning techniques. The main objective of this study is to map 11 individual high tree species ( > 17m) at the tree level using an object-based approach in the broadleaf forest of Kenauk Nature, Quebec. For the individual tree crown segmentation, three canopy-height models (CHMs) from LiDAR data were assessed: 1) the original, 2) a filtered, and 3) a corrected model. The corrected CHM gave the best accuracy and was then coupled with imagery to refine tree species crown identification. When compared with photo-interpretation, 90% of the objects represented a single species. For modeling, 313 variables were derived from 16-band WorldView-3 imagery and LiDAR data, using radiance, reflectance, pixel, and object-based calculation techniques. Variable selection procedures were employed to reduce their number from 313 to 16, using only 11 bands to aid reproducibility. For classification, a global approach using all 11 species was compared to a semi-hierarchical hybrid classification approach at two levels: (1) tree type (broadleaf/conifer) and (2) individual broadleaf (five) and conifer (six) species. Five different model techniques were used: (1) support vector machine (SVM), (2) classification and regression tree (CART), (3) random forest (RF), (4) k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), and (5) linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Each model was tuned separately for all approaches and levels. For the global approach, the best model was the SVM using eight variables (overall accuracy (OA): 80%, Kappa: 0.77). With the semi-hierarchical hybrid approach, at the tree type level, the best model was the k-NN using six variables (OA: 100% and Kappa: 1.00). At the level of identifying broadleaf and conifer species, the best model was the SVM, with OA of 80% and 97% and Kappa values of 0.74 and 0.97, respectively, using seven variables for both models. This paper demonstrates that a hybrid classification approach gives better results and that using 16-band WorldView-3 with LiDAR data leads to more precise predictions for tree segmentation and classification, especially when the number of tree species is large.

Keywords: tree species, object-based, classification, multispectral, machine learning, WorldView-3, LiDAR

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Authors: Remus Pravalie, Georgeta Bandoc

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Forests are crucial for humanity and biodiversity, through the various ecosystem services and functions they provide all over the world. Forest ecosystems are vital in Romania as well, through their various benefits, known as provisioning (food, wood, or fresh water), regulating (water purification, soil protection, carbon sequestration or control of climate change, floods, and other hazards), cultural (aesthetic, spiritual, inspirational, recreational or educational benefits) and supporting (primary production, nutrient cycling, and soil formation processes, with direct or indirect importance for human well-being) ecosystem services. These ecological benefits are of great importance in Romania, especially given the fact that forests cover extensive areas countrywide, i.e. ~6.5 million ha or ~27.5% of the national territory. However, the diversity and functionality of these ecosystem services fundamentally depend on certain key attributes of forests, such as biomass, which has so far not been studied nationally in terms of potential changes due to climate change and other driving forces. This study investigates, for the first time, changes in forest biomass in Romania in recent decades, based on a high volume of satellite data (Landsat images at high spatial resolutions), downloaded from the Google Earth Engine platform and processed (using specialized software and methods) across Romanian forestland boundaries from 1987 to 2018. A complex climate database was also investigated across Romanian forests over the same 32-year period, in order to detect potential similarities and statistical relationships between the dynamics of biomass and climate data. The results obtained indicated considerable changes in forest biomass in Romania in recent decades, largely triggered by the climate change that affected the country after 1987. Findings on the complex pattern of recent forest changes in Romania, which will be presented in detail in this study, can be useful to national policymakers in the fields of forestry, climate, and sustainable development.

Keywords: forests, biomass, climate change, trends, romania

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Kita R. Ashman, Anthony R. Rendall, Matthew R. E. Symonds, Desley A. Whisson

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Forest cover is decreasing globally, chiefly due to the conversion of forest to agricultural landscapes. In contrast, the area under plantation forestry is increasing significantly. For wildlife occupying landscapes where native forest is the dominant land cover, plantations generally represent a lower value habitat; however, plantations established on land formerly used for pasture may benefit wildlife by providing temporary forest habitat and increasing connectivity. This study investigates the influence of landscape, site, and climatic factors on koala population density in far south-west Victoria where there has been extensive plantation establishment. We conducted koala surveys and habitat characteristic assessments at 72 sites across three habitat types: plantation, native vegetation blocks, and native vegetation strips. We employed a hierarchical modeling framework for estimating abundance and constructed candidate multinomial N-mixture models to identify factors influencing the abundance of koalas. We detected higher mean koala density in plantation sites (0.85 per ha) than in either native block (0.68 per ha) or native strip sites (0.66 per ha). We found five covariates of koala density and using these variables, we spatially modeled koala abundance and discuss factors that are key in determining large-scale distribution and density of koala populations. We provide a distribution map that can be used to identify high priority areas for population management as well as the habitat of high conservation significance for koalas. This information facilitates the linkage of ecological theory with the on-ground implementation of management actions and may guide conservation planning and resource management actions to consider overall landscape configuration as well as the spatial arrangement of plantations adjacent to the remnant forest.

Keywords: abundance modelling, arboreal mammals plantations, wildlife conservation

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Samira Cherid, Samir Bentata, F. Zahira Meghoufel, Sabria Terkhi, Yamina Sefir, Fatima Bendahma, Bouabdellah Bouadjemi, Ali Z. Itouni

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In this work, we examined the propagation of light in one-dimensional systems is examined by means of the random dimer model. The introduction of defect elements, randomly in the studied system, breaks down the Anderson localization and provides a set of propagating delocalized modes at the corresponding conventional dimer resonances. However, tuning suitably the defect dimer resonance on the host ones (or vice versa), the transmission magnitudes can be enhanced providing the optimized ballistic transmission regime as an average response. Hence, ballistic optical filters can be conceived at desired wavelengths.

Keywords: photonic crystals, random dimer model, ballistic resonance, localization and transmission

Procedia PDF Downloads 530