Search results for: regional events
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3724

Search results for: regional events

514 Measurement of Fatty Acid Changes in Post-Mortem Belowground Carcass (Sus-scrofa) Decomposition: A Semi-Quantitative Methodology for Determining the Post-Mortem Interval

Authors: Nada R. Abuknesha, John P. Morgan, Andrew J. Searle

Abstract:

Information regarding post-mortem interval (PMI) in criminal investigations is vital to establish a time frame when reconstructing events. PMI is defined as the time period that has elapsed between the occurrence of death and the discovery of the corpse. Adipocere, commonly referred to as ‘grave-wax’, is formed when post-mortem adipose tissue is converted into a solid material that is heavily comprised of fatty acids. Adipocere is of interest to forensic anthropologists, as its formation is able to slow down the decomposition process. Therefore, analysing the changes in the patterns of fatty acids during the early decomposition process may be able to estimate the period of burial, and hence the PMI. The current study concerned the investigation of the fatty acid composition and patterns in buried pig fat tissue. This was in an attempt to determine whether particular patterns of fatty acid composition can be shown to be associated with the duration of the burial, and hence may be used to estimate PMI. The use of adipose tissue from the abdominal region of domestic pigs (Sus-scrofa), was used to model the human decomposition process. 17 x 20cm piece of pork belly was buried in a shallow artificial grave, and weekly samples (n=3) from the buried pig fat tissue were collected over an 11-week period. Marker fatty acids: palmitic (C16:0), oleic (C18:1n-9) and linoleic (C18:2n-6) acid were extracted from the buried pig fat tissue and analysed as fatty acid methyl esters using the gas chromatography system. Levels of the marker fatty acids were quantified from their respective standards. The concentrations of C16:0 (69.2 mg/mL) and C18:1n-9 (44.3 mg/mL) from time zero exhibited significant fluctuations during the burial period. Levels rose (116 and 60.2 mg/mL, respectively) and fell starting from the second week to reach 19.3 and 18.3 mg/mL, respectively at week 6. Levels showed another increase at week 9 (66.3 and 44.1 mg/mL, respectively) followed by gradual decrease at week 10 (20.4 and 18.5 mg/mL, respectively). A sharp increase was observed in the final week (131.2 and 61.1 mg/mL, respectively). Conversely, the levels of C18:2n-6 remained more or less constant throughout the study. In addition to fluctuations in the concentrations, several new fatty acids appeared in the latter weeks. Other fatty acids which were detectable in the time zero sample, were lost in the latter weeks. There are several probable opportunities to utilise fatty acid analysis as a basic technique for approximating PMI: the quantification of marker fatty acids and the detection of selected fatty acids that either disappear or appear during the burial period. This pilot study indicates that this may be a potential semi-quantitative methodology for determining the PMI. Ideally, the analysis of particular fatty acid patterns in the early stages of decomposition could be an additional tool to the already available techniques or methods in improving the overall processes in estimating PMI of a corpse.

Keywords: adipocere, fatty acids, gas chromatography, post-mortem interval

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513 Optimization of Heat Source Assisted Combustion on Solid Rocket Motors

Authors: Minal Jain, Vinayak Malhotra

Abstract:

Solid Propellant ignition consists of rapid and complex events comprising of heat generation and transfer of heat with spreading of flames over the entire burning surface area. Proper combustion and thus propulsion depends heavily on the modes of heat transfer characteristics and cavity volume. Fire safety is an integral component of a successful rocket flight failing to which may lead to overall failure of the rocket. This leads to enormous forfeiture in resources viz., money, time, and labor involved. When the propellant is ignited, thrust is generated and the casing gets heated up. This heat adds on to the propellant heat and the casing, if not at proper orientation starts burning as well, leading to the whole rocket being completely destroyed. This has necessitated active research efforts emphasizing a comprehensive study on the inter-energy relations involved for effective utilization of the solid rocket motors for better space missions. Present work is focused on one of the major influential aspects of this detrimental burning which is the presence of an external heat source, in addition to a potential heat source which is already ignited. The study is motivated by the need to ensure better combustion and fire safety presented experimentally as a simplified small-scale mode of a rocket carrying a solid propellant inside a cavity. The experimental setup comprises of a paraffin wax candle as the pilot fuel and incense stick as the external heat source. The candle is fixed and the incense stick position and location is varied to investigate the find the influence of the pilot heat source. Different configurations of the external heat source presence with separation distance are tested upon. Regression rates of the pilot thin solid fuel are noted to fundamentally understand the non-linear heat and mass transfer which is the governing phenomenon. An attempt is made to understand the phenomenon fundamentally and the mechanism governing it. Results till now indicate non-linear heat transfer assisted with the occurrence of flaming transition at selected critical distances. With an increase in separation distance, the effect is noted to drop in a non-monotonic trend. The parametric study results are likely to provide useful physical insight about the governing physics and utilization in proper testing, validation, material selection, and designing of solid rocket motors with enhanced safety.

Keywords: combustion, propellant, regression, safety

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512 The Relationship between Incidental Emotions, Risk Perceptions and Type of Army Service

Authors: Sharon Garyn-Tal, Shoshana Shahrabani

Abstract:

Military service in general, and in combat units in particular, can be physically and psychologically stressful. Therefore, type of service may have significant implications for soldiers during and after their military service including emotions, judgments and risk perceptions. Previous studies have focused on risk propensity and risky behavior among soldiers, however there is still lack of knowledge on the impact of type of army service on risk perceptions. The current study examines the effect of type of army service (combat versus non-combat service) and negative incidental emotions on risk perceptions. In 2014 a survey was conducted among 153 combat and non-combat Israeli soldiers. The survey was distributed in train stations and central bus stations in various places in Israel among soldiers waiting for the train/bus. Participants answered questions related to the levels of incidental negative emotions they felt, to their risk perceptions (chances to be hurt by terror attack, by violent crime and by car accident), and personal details including type of army service. The data in this research is unique because military service in Israel is compulsory, so that the Israeli population serving in the army is wide and diversified. The results indicate that currently serving combat participants were more pessimistic in their risk perceptions (for all type of risks) compared to the currently serving non-combat participants. Since combat participants probably experienced severe and distressing situations during their service, they became more pessimistic regarding their probabilities of being hurt in different situations in life. This result supports the availability heuristic theory and the findings of previous studies indicating that those who directly experience distressing events tend to overestimate danger. The findings also indicate that soldiers who feel higher levels of incidental fear and anger have pessimistic risk perceptions. In addition, respondents who experienced combat army service also have pessimistic risk perceptions if they feel higher levels of fear. In addition, the findings suggest that higher levels of the incidental emotions of fear and anger are related to more pessimistic risk perceptions. These results can be explained by the compulsory army service in Israel that constitutes a focused threat to soldiers' safety during their period of service. Thus, in this stressful environment, negative incidental emotions even during routine times correlate with higher risk perceptions. In conclusion, the current study results suggest that combat army service shapes risk perceptions and the way young people control their negative incidental emotions in everyday life. Recognizing the factors affecting risk perceptions among soldiers is important for better understanding the impact of army service on young people.

Keywords: army service, combat soldiers, incidental emotions, risk perceptions

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511 Solutions to Reduce CO2 Emissions in Autonomous Robotics

Authors: Antoni Grau, Yolanda Bolea, Alberto Sanfeliu

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Mobile robots can be used in many different applications, including mapping, search, rescue, reconnaissance, hazard detection, and carpet cleaning, exploration, etc. However, they are limited due to their reliance on traditional energy sources such as electricity and oil which cannot always provide a convenient energy source in all situations. In an ever more eco-conscious world, solar energy offers the most environmentally clean option of all energy sources. Electricity presents threats of pollution resulting from its production process, and oil poses a huge threat to the environment. Not only does it pose harm by the toxic emissions (for instance CO2 emissions), it produces the combustion process necessary to produce energy, but there is the ever present risk of oil spillages and damages to ecosystems. Solar energy can help to mitigate carbon emissions by replacing more carbon intensive sources of heat and power. The challenge of this work is to propose the design and the implementation of electric battery recharge stations. Those recharge docks are based on the use of renewable energy such as solar energy (with photovoltaic panels) with the object to reduce the CO2 emissions. In this paper, a comparative study of the CO2 emission productions (from the use of different energy sources: natural gas, gas oil, fuel and solar panels) in the charging process of the Segway PT batteries is carried out. To make the study with solar energy, a photovoltaic panel, and a Buck-Boost DC/DC block has been used. Specifically, the STP005S-12/Db solar panel has been used to carry out our experiments. This module is a 5Wp-photovoltaic (PV) module, configured with 36 monocrystalline cells serially connected. With those elements, a battery recharge station is made to recharge the robot batteries. For the energy storage DC/DC block, a series of ultracapacitors have been used. Due to the variation of the PV panel with the temperature and irradiation, and the non-integer behavior of the ultracapacitors as well as the non-linearities of the whole system, authors have been used a fractional control method to achieve that solar panels supply the maximum allowed power to recharge the robots in the lesser time. Greenhouse gas emissions for production of electricity vary due to regional differences in source fuel. The impact of an energy technology on the climate can be characterised by its carbon emission intensity, a measure of the amount of CO2, or CO2 equivalent emitted by unit of energy generated. In our work, the coal is the fossil energy more hazardous, providing a 53% more of gas emissions than natural gas and a 30% more than fuel. Moreover, it is remarkable that existing fossil fuel technologies produce high carbon emission intensity through the combustion of carbon-rich fuels, whilst renewable technologies such as solar produce little or no emissions during operation, but may incur emissions during manufacture. The solar energy thus can help to mitigate carbon emissions.

Keywords: autonomous robots, CO2 emissions, DC/DC buck-boost, solar energy

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510 Theory of Apokatástasis - „in This Way, While Paying Attention to Their Knowledge and Wisdom, Nonetheless, They Did Not Ask God about These Matters, as to Whether or Not They Are True...“

Authors: Pikria Vardosanidze

Abstract:

The term Apokatástasis (Greek: Apokatástasis) is Greek and means "re-establishment", the universal resurrection. The term dates back to ancient times, in Stoic thought denoting the end of a constantly evolving cycle of the universe and the beginning of a new beginning, established in Christendom by the Eastern Fathers and Origen as the return of the entire created world to a state of goodness. "Universal resurrection" means the resurrection of mankind after the second coming of Jesus Christ. The first thing the Savior will do immediately upon His glorious coming will be that "the dead will be raised up first by Christ." God's animal action will apply to all the dead, but not with the same result. The action of God also applies to the living, which is accomplished by changing their bodies. The degree of glorification of the resurrected body will be commensurate with the spiritual life. An unclean body will not be glorified, and the soul will not be happy. He, as a resurrected body, will be unbelieving, strong, and spiritual, but because of the action of the passions, all this will only bring suffering to the body. The court judges both the soul and the flesh. At the same time, St. The letter nowhere says that at the last 4trial, someone will be able to change their own position. In connection with this dogmatic teaching, one of the greatest fathers of the Church, Sts. Gregory Nossell had a different view. He points out that the miracle of the resurrection is so glorious and sublime that it exceeds our faith. There are two important circumstances: one is the reality of the resurrection itself, and the other is the face of its fulfillment. The first is founded by Gregory Nossell on the Uado authority, Sts. In the letter: Jesus Christ preached about the resurrection of Christ and also foretold many other events, all of which were later fulfilled. Gregory Nossell clarifies the issues of the substantiality of good and evil and the relationship between them and notes that only good has an inherent dependence on nothing because it originated from nothing and exists eternally in God. As for evil, it has no self-sustaining substance and, therefore, no existence. It appears only through the free will of man from time to time. As St., The Father says that God is the supreme goodness that gives beings the power to exist in existence , all others who are without Him are non-existent. St. The above-mentioned opinion of the father about the universal apocatastasis comes from the thought of Origen. This teaching was introduced by the resolution of the Fifth World Ecclesiastical Assembly. Finally, it was unanimously stated by ecclesiastical figures that the doctrine of universal salvation is not valid. For if the resurrection takes place in this way, that is, all beings, including the evil spirit, are resurrected, then the worldly controversy between good and evil, the future common denominator, the eternal torment - all that Christian dogma acknowledges.

Keywords: apolatastasisi ortodox, orthodox doctrine, gregogory of nusse, eschatology

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509 A Bayesian Approach for Health Workforce Planning in Portugal

Authors: Diana F. Lopes, Jorge Simoes, José Martins, Eduardo Castro

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Health professionals are the keystone of any health system, by delivering health services to the population. Given the time and cost involved in training new health professionals, the planning process of the health workforce is particularly important as it ensures a proper balance between the supply and demand of these professionals and it plays a central role on the Health 2020 policy. In the past 40 years, the planning of the health workforce in Portugal has been conducted in a reactive way lacking a prospective vision based on an integrated, comprehensive and valid analysis. This situation may compromise not only the productivity and the overall socio-economic development but the quality of the healthcare services delivered to patients. This is even more critical given the expected shortage of the health workforce in the future. Furthermore, Portugal is facing an aging context of some professional classes (physicians and nurses). In 2015, 54% of physicians in Portugal were over 50 years old, and 30% of all members were over 60 years old. This phenomenon associated to an increasing emigration of young health professionals and a change in the citizens’ illness profiles and expectations must be considered when planning resources in healthcare. The perspective of sudden retirement of large groups of professionals in a short time is also a major problem to address. Another challenge to embrace is the health workforce imbalances, in which Portugal has one of the lowest nurse to physician ratio, 1.5, below the European Region and the OECD averages (2.2 and 2.8, respectively). Within the scope of the HEALTH 2040 project – which aims to estimate the ‘Future needs of human health resources in Portugal till 2040’ – the present study intends to get a comprehensive dynamic approach of the problem, by (i) estimating the needs of physicians and nurses in Portugal, by specialties and by quinquenium till 2040; (ii) identifying the training needs of physicians and nurses, in medium and long term, till 2040, and (iii) estimating the number of students that must be admitted into medicine and nursing training systems, each year, considering the different categories of specialties. The development of such approach is significantly more critical in the context of limited budget resources and changing health care needs. In this context, this study presents the drivers of the healthcare needs’ evolution (such as the demographic and technological evolution, the future expectations of the users of the health systems) and it proposes a Bayesian methodology, combining the best available data with experts opinion, to model such evolution. Preliminary results considering different plausible scenarios are presented. The proposed methodology will be integrated in a user-friendly decision support system so it can be used by politicians, with the potential to measure the impact of health policies, both at the regional and the national level.

Keywords: bayesian estimation, health economics, health workforce planning, human health resources planning

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508 Spatial Heterogeneity of Urban Land Use in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on DMSP/OLS Data

Authors: Liang Zhou, Qinke Sun

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Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example, using long-term nighttime lighting data from DMSP/OLS from 1992 to 2012, support vector machine classification (SVM) was used to quantitatively extract urban built-up areas of economic belts, and spatial analysis of expansion intensity index, standard deviation ellipse, etc. was introduced. The model conducts detailed and in-depth discussions on the strength, direction, and type of the expansion of the middle and lower reaches of the economic belt and the key node cities. The results show that: (1) From 1992 to 2012, the built-up areas of the major cities in the Yangtze River Valley showed a rapid expansion trend. The built-up area expanded by 60,392 km², and the average annual expansion rate was 31%, that is, from 9615 km² in 1992 to 70007 km² in 2012. The spatial gradient analysis of the watershed shows that the expansion of urban built-up areas in the middle and lower reaches of the river basin takes Shanghai as the leading force, and the 'bottom-up' model shows an expanding pattern of 'upstream-downstream-middle-range' declines. The average annual rate of expansion is 36% and 35%, respectively. 17% of which the midstream expansion rate is about 50% of the upstream and downstream. (2) The analysis of expansion intensity shows that the urban expansion intensity in the Yangtze River Basin has generally shown an upward trend, the downstream region has continued to rise, and the upper and middle reaches have experienced different amplitude fluctuations. To further analyze the strength of urban expansion at key nodes, Chengdu, Chongqing, and Wuhan in the upper and middle reaches maintain a high degree of consistency with the intensity of regional expansion. Node cities with Shanghai as the core downstream continue to maintain a high level of expansion. (3) The standard deviation ellipse analysis shows that the overall center of gravity of the Yangtze River basin city is located in Anqing City, Anhui Province, and it showed a phenomenon of reciprocating movement from 1992 to 2012. The nighttime standard deviation ellipse distribution range increased from 61.96 km² to 76.52 km². The growth of the major axis of the ellipse was significantly larger than that of the minor axis. It had obvious east-west axiality, in which the nighttime lights in the downstream area occupied in the entire luminosity scale urban system leading position.

Keywords: urban space, support vector machine, spatial characteristics, night lights, Yangtze River Economic Belt

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507 Enhancing VR Exposure Therapy for the Treatment of Phobias with the Use of Photorealistic VR Environments and Stimuli, and the Use of Tactile Feedback Suits and Responsive Systems

Authors: Vardan Melkonyan, Arman Azizyan, Astghik Boyajyan

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Virtual reality (VR) exposure therapy is a form of cognitive-behavioral therapy that uses immersive virtual environments to expose individuals to the feared stimuli or situations that trigger their phobia. VR exposure therapy has become an increasingly popular treatment for phobias, including fear of heights, public speaking, and flying, due to its ability to provide a controlled and safe environment for individuals to confront their fears while also allowing therapists to tailor the virtual exposure to the specific needs and goals of each individual. It is also a cost-effective and accessible treatment option, as it can be delivered remotely and does not require the use of drugs. Overall, VR exposure therapy has the potential to be a valuable tool for therapists in the treatment of phobias. But current methods may be improved by incorporating advanced technology such as photorealistic VR environments, tactile feedback suits, and responsive systems. The aim of this study was to identify the most effective approach for enhancing VR exposure therapy for the treatment of phobias. Photorealistic VR environments and stimuli can greatly enhance the effectiveness of VR exposure therapy for the treatment of phobias. By creating immersive, realistic virtual environments that closely mimic the real-life situations that trigger phobia responses, patients are able to more fully engage in the therapeutic process and confront their fears in a controlled and safe manner. This can help to reduce the severity of phobia symptoms and increase treatment outcomes. The use of tactile feedback suits and responsive systems can further enhance the VR exposure therapy experience by adding a physical element to the virtual environment. These suits, which can mimic the sensations of touch, pressure, and movement, allow patients to fully immerse themselves in the virtual world and feel as if they are physically present in the situation. This can help to increase the realism of the virtual environment and make it more effective in reducing phobia symptoms. Additionally, responsive systems can be used to trigger specific events or responses within the virtual environment based on the patient's actions, providing a more interactive and personalized treatment experience. A comprehensive literature review was conducted, including studies on VR exposure therapy for phobias and the use of advanced technology to enhance the therapy. Results indicate that incorporating these enhancements may significantly increase the effectiveness of VR exposure therapy for phobias. Further research is needed to fully understand the potential of these enhancements and to determine the optimal combination and implementation.

Keywords: virtual reality, mental health, phobias, fears, treatment, photorealistic, immersive, phobia

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506 Roads and Agriculture: Impacts of Connectivity in Peru

Authors: Julio Aguirre, Yohnny Campana, Elmer Guerrero, Daniel De La Torre Ugarte

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A well-developed transportation network is a necessary condition for a country to derive full benefits from good trade and macroeconomic policies. Road infrastructure plays a key role in the economic development of rural areas of developing countries; where agriculture is the main economic activity. The ability to move agricultural production from the place of production to the market, and then to the place of consumption, greatly influence the economic value of farming activities, and of the resources involved in the production process, i.e., labor and land. Consequently, investment in transportation networks contributes to enhance or overcome the natural advantages or disadvantages that topography and location have imposed over the agricultural sector. This is of particular importance when dealing with countries, like Peru, with a great topographic diversity. The objective of this research is to estimate the impacts of road infrastructure on the performance of the agricultural sector. Specific variables of interest are changes in travel time, shifts of production for self-consumption to production for the market, changes in farmers income, and impacts on the diversification of the agricultural sector. In the study, a cross-section model with instrumental variables is the central methodological instrument. The data is obtained from agricultural and transport geo-referenced databases, and the instrumental variable specification utilized is based on the Kruskal algorithm. The results show that the expansion of road connectivity reduced farmers' travel time by an average of 3.1 hours and the proportion of output sold in the market increases by up to 40 percentage points. The increase in connectivity has an unexpected increase in the districts index of diversification of agricultural production. The results are robust to the inclusion of year and region fixed-effects, and to control for geography (i.e., slope and altitude), population variables, and mining activity. Other results are also very eloquent. For example, a clear positive impact can be seen in access to local markets, but this does not necessarily correlate with an increase in the production of the sector. This can be explained by the fact that agricultural development not only requires provision of roads but additional complementary infrastructure and investments intended to provide the necessary conditions so that producers can offer quality products (improved management practices, timely maintenance of irrigation infrastructure, transparent management of water rights, among other factors). Therefore, complementary public goods are needed to enhance the effects of roads on the welfare of the population, beyond enabling them to increase their access to markets.

Keywords: agriculture devolepment, market access, road connectivity, regional development

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505 Storms Dynamics in the Black Sea in the Context of the Climate Changes

Authors: Eugen Rusu

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The objective of the work proposed is to perform an analysis of the wave conditions in the Black Sea basin. This is especially focused on the spatial and temporal occurrences and on the dynamics of the most extreme storms in the context of the climate changes. A numerical modelling system, based on the spectral phase averaged wave model SWAN, has been implemented and validated against both in situ measurements and remotely sensed data, all along the sea. Moreover, a successive correction method for the assimilation of the satellite data has been associated with the wave modelling system. This is based on the optimal interpolation of the satellite data. Previous studies show that the process of data assimilation improves considerably the reliability of the results provided by the modelling system. This especially concerns the most sensitive cases from the point of view of the accuracy of the wave predictions, as the extreme storm situations are. Following this numerical approach, it has to be highlighted that the results provided by the wave modelling system above described are in general in line with those provided by some similar wave prediction systems implemented in enclosed or semi-enclosed sea basins. Simulations of this wave modelling system with data assimilation have been performed for the 30-year period 1987-2016. Considering this database, the next step was to analyze the intensity and the dynamics of the higher storms encountered in this period. According to the data resulted from the model simulations, the western side of the sea is considerably more energetic than the rest of the basin. In this western region, regular strong storms provide usually significant wave heights greater than 8m. This may lead to maximum wave heights even greater than 15m. Such regular strong storms may occur several times in one year, usually in the wintertime, or in late autumn, and it can be noticed that their frequency becomes higher in the last decade. As regards the case of the most extreme storms, significant wave heights greater than 10m and maximum wave heights close to 20m (and even greater) may occur. Such extreme storms, which in the past were noticed only once in four or five years, are more recent to be faced almost every year in the Black Sea, and this seems to be a consequence of the climate changes. The analysis performed included also the dynamics of the monthly and annual significant wave height maxima as well as the identification of the most probable spatial and temporal occurrences of the extreme storm events. Finally, it can be concluded that the present work provides valuable information related to the characteristics of the storm conditions and on their dynamics in the Black Sea. This environment is currently subjected to high navigation traffic and intense offshore and nearshore activities and the strong storms that systematically occur may produce accidents with very serious consequences.

Keywords: Black Sea, extreme storms, SWAN simulations, waves

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504 How to Talk about It without Talking about It: Cognitive Processing Therapy Offers Trauma Symptom Relief without Violating Cultural Norms

Authors: Anne Giles

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Humans naturally wish they could forget traumatic experiences. To help prevent future harm, however, the human brain has evolved to retain data about experiences of threat, alarm, or violation. When given compassionate support and assistance with thinking helpfully and realistically about traumatic events, most people can adjust to experiencing hardships, albeit with residual sad, unfortunate memories. Persistent, recurrent, intrusive memories, difficulty sleeping, emotion dysregulation, and avoidance of reminders, however, may be symptoms of Post-traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Brain scans show that PTSD affects brain functioning. We currently have no physical means of restoring the system of brain structures and functions involved with PTSD. Medications may ease some symptoms but not others. However, forms of "talk therapy" with cognitive components have been found by researchers to reduce, even resolve, a broad spectrum of trauma symptoms. Many cultures have taboos against talking about hardships. Individuals may present themselves to mental health care professionals with severe, disabling trauma symptoms but, because of cultural norms, be unable to speak about them. In China, for example, relationship expectations may include the belief, "Bad things happening in the family should stay in the family (jiāchǒu bùkě wàiyán 家丑不可外扬)." The concept of "family (jiā 家)" may include partnerships, close and extended families, communities, companies, and the nation itself. In contrast to many trauma therapies, Cognitive Processing Therapy (CPT) for Post-traumatic Stress Disorder asks its participants to focus not on "what" happened but on "why" they think the trauma(s) occurred. The question "why" activates and exercises cognitive functioning. Brain scans of individuals with PTSD reveal executive functioning portions of the brain inadequately active, with emotion centers overly active. CPT conceptualizes PTSD as a network of cognitive distortions that keep an individual "stuck" in this under-functioning and over-functioning dynamic. Through asking participants forms of the question "why," plus offering a protocol for examining answers and relinquishing unhelpful beliefs, CPT assists individuals in consciously reactivating the cognitive, executive functions of their brains, thus restoring normal functioning and reducing distressing trauma symptoms. The culturally sensitive components of CPT that allow people to "talk about it without talking about it" may offer the possibility for worldwide relief from symptoms of trauma.

Keywords: cognitive processing therapy (CPT), cultural norms, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), trauma recovery

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503 Adaptive Environmental Control System Strategy for Cabin Air Quality in Commercial Aircrafts

Authors: Paolo Grasso, Sai Kalyan Yelike, Federico Benzi, Mathieu Le Cam

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The cabin air quality (CAQ) in commercial aircraft is of prime interest, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Current Environmental Control Systems (ECS) rely on a prescribed fresh airflow per passenger to dilute contaminants. An adaptive ECS strategy is proposed, leveraging air sensing and filtration technologies to ensure a better CAQ. This paper investigates the CAQ level achieved in commercial aircraft’s cabin during various flight scenarios. The modeling and simulation analysis is performed in a Modelica-based environment describing the dynamic behavior of the system. The model includes the following three main systems: cabin, recirculation loop and air-conditioning pack. The cabin model evaluates the thermo-hygrometric conditions and the air quality in the cabin depending on the number of passengers and crew members, the outdoor conditions and the conditions of the air supplied to the cabin. The recirculation loop includes models of the recirculation fan, ordinary and novel filtration technology, mixing chamber and outflow valve. The air-conditioning pack includes models of heat exchangers and turbomachinery needed to condition the hot pressurized air bled from the engine, as well as selected contaminants originated from the outside or bled from the engine. Different ventilation control strategies are modeled and simulated. Currently, a limited understanding of contaminant concentrations in the cabin and the lack of standardized and systematic methods to collect and record data constitute a challenge in establishing a causal relationship between CAQ and passengers' comfort. As a result, contaminants are neither measured nor filtered during flight, and the current sub-optimal way to avoid their accumulation is their dilution with the fresh air flow. However, the use of a prescribed amount of fresh air comes with a cost, making the ECS the most energy-demanding non-propulsive system within an aircraft. In such a context, this study shows that an ECS based on a reduced and adaptive fresh air flow, and relying on air sensing and filtration technologies, provides promising results in terms of CAQ control. The comparative simulation results demonstrate that the proposed adaptive ECS brings substantial improvements to the CAQ in terms of both controlling the asymptotic values of the concentration of the contaminant and in mitigating hazardous scenarios, such as fume events. Original architectures allowing for adaptive control of the inlet air flow rate based on monitored CAQ will change the requirements for filtration systems and redefine the ECS operation.

Keywords: cabin air quality, commercial aircraft, environmental control system, ventilation

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502 Mapping Intertidal Changes Using Polarimetry and Interferometry Techniques

Authors: Khalid Omari, Rene Chenier, Enrique Blondel, Ryan Ahola

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Northern Canadian coasts have vulnerable and very dynamic intertidal zones with very high tides occurring in several areas. The impact of climate change presents challenges not only for maintaining this biodiversity but also for navigation safety adaptation due to the high sediment mobility in these coastal areas. Thus, frequent mapping of shorelines and intertidal changes is of high importance. To help in quantifying the changes in these fragile ecosystems, remote sensing provides practical monitoring tools at local and regional scales. Traditional methods based on high-resolution optical sensors are often used to map intertidal areas by benefiting of the spectral response contrast of intertidal classes in visible, near and mid-infrared bands. Tidal areas are highly reflective in visible bands mainly because of the presence of fine sand deposits. However, getting a cloud-free optical data that coincide with low tides in intertidal zones in northern regions is very difficult. Alternatively, the all-weather capability and daylight-independence of the microwave remote sensing using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can offer valuable geophysical parameters with a high frequency revisit over intertidal zones. Multi-polarization SAR parameters have been used successfully in mapping intertidal zones using incoherence target decomposition. Moreover, the crustal displacements caused by ocean tide loading may reach several centimeters that can be detected and quantified across differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR). Soil moisture change has a significant impact on both the coherence and the backscatter. For instance, increases in the backscatter intensity associated with low coherence is an indicator for abrupt surface changes. In this research, we present primary results obtained following our investigation of the potential of the fully polarimetric Radarsat-2 data for mapping an inter-tidal zone located on Tasiujaq on the south-west shore of Ungava Bay, Quebec. Using the repeat pass cycle of Radarsat-2, multiple seasonal fine quad (FQ14W) images are acquired over the site between 2016 and 2018. Only 8 images corresponding to low tide conditions are selected and used to build an interferometric stack of data. The observed displacements along the line of sight generated using HH and VV polarization are compared with the changes noticed using the Freeman Durden polarimetric decomposition and Touzi degree of polarization extrema. Results show the consistency of both approaches in their ability to monitor the changes in intertidal zones.

Keywords: SAR, degree of polarization, DInSAR, Freeman-Durden, polarimetry, Radarsat-2

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501 The Effects of Irregular Immigration Originating from Syria on Turkey's Security Issues

Authors: Muzaffer Topgul, Hasan Atac

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After the September 11 attacks, fight against terrorism has risen to higher levels in security concepts of the countries. The following reactions of some nation states have led to the formation of unstable areas in different parts of the World. Especially, in Iraq and Syria, the influences of radical groups have risen with the weakening of the central governments. Turkey (with the geographical proximity to the current crisis) has become a stop on the movement of people who were displaced because of terrorism. In the process, the policies of the Syrian regime resulted in a civil war which is still going on since 2011, and remain as an unresolved crisis. With the extension of the problem, changes occurred in foreign policies of the World Powers; moreover, the ongoing effects of the riots, conflicts of interests of foreign powers, conflicts in the region because of the activities of radical groups increased instability within the country. This case continues to affect the security of Turkey, particularly illegal immigration. It has exceeded the number of two million Syrians who took refuge in Turkey due to the civil war, while continuing uncertainty about the legal status of asylum seekers, besides the security problems of asylum-seekers themselves, there are problems in education, health and communication (language) as well. In this study, we will evaluate the term of immigration through the eyes of national and international law, place the disorganized and illegal immigration in security sphere, and define the elements/components of irregular migration within the changing security concept. Ultimately, this article will assess the effects of the Syrian refuges to Turkey’s short-term, mid-term, and long-term security in the light of the national and international data flows and solutions will be presented to the ongoing problem. While explaining the security problems the data and the donnees obtained from the nation and international corporations will be examined thorough the human security dimensions such as living conditions of the immigrants, the ratio of the genders, especially birth rate occasions, the education circumstances of the immigrant children, the effects of the illegal passing on the public order. In addition, the demographic change caused by the immigrants will be analyzed, the changing economical conditions where the immigrants mostly accumulate, and their participation in public life will be worked on and the economical obstacles sourcing due to irregular immigration will be clarified. By the entire datum gathered from the educational, cultural, social, economic, demographical extents, the regional factors affecting the migration and the role of irregular migration in Turkey’s future security will be revealed by implication to current knowledge sources.

Keywords: displaced people, human security, irregular migration, refugees

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500 Migration, Labour Market, Capital Formation, and Social Security: A Study of Livelihoods of the Urban Poor in Two Different Cities of West Bengal in India

Authors: Arup Pramanik

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Most of the cities in the developing countries like Siliguri Municipal Corporation Area (SMCA) and Raiganj Municipality (RM) in West Bengal, India are changing typically in terms of demographic, economic and social relationship due to rapid pace of urbanization. The mushrooming growth of slums in SMCA and RM is the direct consequence of urbanization and migration due to regional imbalance, unbalanced growth process which is posing a serious threat to sustainable development of the country. Almost all the slums happen to be a breeding ground for poverty, negligence, and disease. Unpredictable growth of slums and poverty alleviation has now become a serious challenge to the global and national policy makers for the development of the slum dwellers. The ethical dimension of the poor in the cities like SMCA and RM stands on equal opportunities, inclusive and harmonious living without discrimination of any kind. But, the migrant slum dwellers in SMCA and RM do not possess high skill or education to enable them to find well paid employment in the formal sector and the surplus urban labour force is compelled to generate its own means of employment and survival in the informal sector. The survey data of the households has been analysedin terms of percentage, descriptive statistics which includes mean, Standard Deviation (SD), ANOVA (Mean Difference) etc., to analyse the socio economic variables of the households. The study shows that the migrant labour forces living in the slums are derived from the social security measures in both the municipal areas of SMCA and RM. The urban poor in the cities of SMCA and RM rely heavily on social capital amongst all the capital assets to help them ‘get by’ and ‘get ahead’. Despite, the slum dwellers in the study areas are vulnerable with respect to other determinants of capital assets. It is noteworthy that Indian plans of anti-poverty programmes was in a proper place even after the neo-liberal regime, where the basic idea behind the massive shift of various welfare and service oriented strategy to poverty reduction strategy for the benefit of the urban poor with the trickle down effects. But, the overall impact of the trickledown effect was unsatisfactory. The objective of the Paper is to assess the magnitude of migration and absorption in the urban labour market. Issues relating to capital formation, social security measures and the support of the Welfare State in order to meet 'Sustainable Development Goals'. This study also highlights the quality of life of urban poor migrants in terms of capital formation and livelihoods.

Keywords: migration, slums, labour market, capital formation, social security

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
499 The Evolution of Man through Cranial and Dental Remains: A Literature Review

Authors: Rishana Bilimoria

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Darwin’s insightful anthropological theory on the evolution drove mankind’s understanding of our existence in the natural world. Scientists consider analysis of dental and craniofacial remains to be pivotal in uncovering facts about our evolutionary journey. The resilient mineral content of enamel and dentine allow cranial and dental remains to be preserved for millions of years, making it an excellent resource not only in anthropology but other fields of research including forensic dentistry. This literature review aims to chronologically approach each ancestral species, reviewing Australopithecus, Paranthropus, Homo Habilis, Homo Rudolfensis, Homo Erectus, Homo Neanderthalis, and finally Homo Sapiens. Studies included in the review assess the features of cranio-dental remains that are of evolutionary importance, such as microstructure, microwear, morphology, and jaw biomechanics. The article discusses the plethora of analysis techniques employed to study dental remains including carbon dating, dental topography, confocal imaging, DPI scanning and light microscopy, in addition to microwear study and analysis of features such as coronal and root morphology, mandibular corpus shape, craniofacial anatomy and microstructure. Furthermore, results from these studies provide insight into the diet, lifestyle and consequently, ecological surroundings of each species. We can correlate dental fossil evidence with wider theories on pivotal global events, to help us contextualize each species in space and time. Examples include dietary adaptation during the period of global cooling converting the landscape of Africa from forest to grassland. Global migration ‘out of Africa’ can be demonstrated by enamel thickness variation, cranial vault variation over time demonstrates accommodation to larger brain sizes, and dental wear patterns can place the commencement of lithic technology in history. Conclusions from this literature review show that dental evidence plays a major role in painting a phenotypic and all rounded picture of species of the Homo genus, in particular, analysis of coronal morphology through carbon dating and dental wear analysis. With regards to analysis technique, whilst studies require larger sample sizes, this could be unrealistic since there are limitations in ability to retrieve fossil data. We cannot deny the reliability of carbon dating; however, there is certainly scope for the use of more recent techniques, and further evidence of their success is required.

Keywords: cranio-facial, dental remains, evolution, hominids

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
498 Building Environmental Citizenship in Spain: Urban Movements and Ecologist Protest in Las Palmas De Gran Canaria, 1970-1983

Authors: Juan Manuel Brito-Diaz

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The emergence of urban environmentalism in Spain is related to the processes of economic transformation and growing urbanization that occurred during the end of the Franco regime and the democratic transition. This paper analyzes the urban environmental mobilizations and their impacts as relevant democratizing agents in the processes of political change in cities. It’s an under-researched topic and studies on environmental movements in Spain have paid little attention to it. This research takes as its starting point the close link between democratization and environmentalism, since it considers that environmental conflicts are largely a consequence of democratic problems, and that the impacts of environmental movements are directly linked to the democratization. The study argues that the environmental movements that emerged in Spain at the end of the dictatorship and the democratic transition are an important part of the broad and complex associative fabric that promoted the democratization process. The research focuses on investigating the environmental protest in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria—the most important city in the Canary Islands—between 1970 and 1983, concurrently with the last local governments of the dictatorship and the first democratic city councils. As it is a case study, it opens up the possibility to ask multiple specific questions and assess each of the responses obtained. Although several research methodologies have been applied, such as the analysis of historical archives documentation or oral history interviews, mainly a very widespread methodology in the sociology of social movements, although very little used by social historians, has been used: the Protest Event Analysis (PEA). This methodology, which consists of generating a catalog of protest events by coding data around previously established variables, has allowed me to map, analyze and interpret the occurrence of protests over time and space, and associated factors, through content analysis. For data collection, news from local newspapers have provided a large enough sample to analyze the properties of social protest -frequency, size, demands, forms, organizers, etc.—and relate them to another type of information related to political structures and mobilization repertoires, encouraging the establishment of connections between the protest and the political impacts of urban movements. Finally, the study argues that the environmental movements of this period were essential to the construction of the new democratic city in Spain, not only because they established the issues of sustainability and urban environmental justice on the public agenda, but also because they proposed that conflicts derived from such matters should ultimately be resolved through public deliberation and citizen participation.

Keywords: democratization, environmental movements, political impacts, social movements

Procedia PDF Downloads 180
497 Internationalization Process Model for Construction Firms: Stages and Strategies

Authors: S. Ping Ho, R. Dahal

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The global economy has drastically changed how firms operate and compete. Although the construction industry is ‘local’ by its nature, the internationalization of the construction industry has become an inevitable reality. As a result of global competition, staying domestic is no longer safe from competition and, on the contrary, to grow and become an MNE (multi-national enterprise) becomes one of the important strategies for a firm to survive in the global competition. For the successful entrance into competing markets, the firms need to re-define their competitive advantages and re-identify the sources of the competitive advantages. A firm’s initiation of internationalization is not necessarily a result of strategic planning but also involves certain idiosyncratic events that pave the path leading to a firm’s internationalization. For example, a local firm’s incidental or unintentional collaboration with an MNE can become the initiating point of its internationalization process. However, because of the intensive competition in today’s global movement, many firms were compelled to initiate their internationalization as a strategic response to the competition. Understandingly stepping in in the process of internationalization and appropriately implementing the strategies (in the process) at different stages lead the construction firms to a successful internationalization journey. This study is carried out to develop a model of the internationalization process, which derives appropriate strategies that the construction firms can implement at each stage. The proposed model integrates two major and complementary views of internationalization and expresses the dynamic process of internationalization in three stages, which are the pre-international (PRE) stage, the foreign direct investment (FDI) stage, and the multi-national enterprise (MNE) stage. The strategies implied in the proposed model are derived, focusing on capability building, market locations, and entry modes based on the resource-based views: value, rareness, imitability, and substitutability (VRIN). With the proposed dynamic process model the potential construction firms which are willing to expand their business market area can be benefitted. Strategies for internationalization, such as core competence strategy, market selection, partner selection, and entry mode strategy, can be derived from the proposed model. The internationalization process is expressed in two different forms. First, we discuss the construction internationalization process, identify the driving factor/s of the process, and explain the strategy formation in the process. Second, we define the stages of internationalization along the process and the corresponding strategies in each stage. The strategies may include how to exploit existing advantages for the competition at the current stage and develop or explore additional advantages appropriate for the next stage. Particularly, the additionally developed advantages will then be accumulated and drive forward the firm’s stage of internationalization, which will further determine the subsequent strategies, and so on and so forth, spiraling up the stages of a higher degree of internationalization. However, the formation of additional strategies for the next stage does not happen automatically, and the strategy evolution is based on the firm’s dynamic capabilities.

Keywords: construction industry, dynamic capabilities, internationalization process, internationalization strategies, strategic management

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496 Reading as Moral Afternoon Tea: An Empirical Study on the Compensation Effect between Literary Novel Reading and Readers’ Moral Motivation

Authors: Chong Jiang, Liang Zhao, Hua Jian, Xiaoguang Wang

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The belief that there is a strong relationship between reading narrative and morality has generally become the basic assumption of scholars, philosophers, critics, and cultural critics. The virtuality constructed by literary novels inspires readers to regard the narrative as a thinking experiment, creating the distance between readers and events so that they can freely and morally experience the positions of different roles. Therefore, the virtual narrative combined with literary characteristics is always considered as a "moral laboratory." Well-established findings revealed that people show less lying and deceptive behaviors in the morning than in the afternoon, called the morning morality effect. As a limited self-regulation resource, morality will be constantly depleted with the change of time rhythm under the influence of the morning morality effect. It can also be compensated and restored in various ways, such as eating, sleeping, etc. As a common form of entertainment in modern society, literary novel reading gives people more virtual experience and emotional catharsis, just as a relaxing afternoon tea that helps people break away from fast-paced work, restore physical strength, and relieve stress in a short period of leisure. In this paper, inspired by the compensation control theory, we wonder whether reading literary novels in the digital environment could replenish a kind of spiritual energy for self-regulation to compensate for people's moral loss in the afternoon. Based on this assumption, we leverage the social annotation text content generated by readers in digital reading to represent the readers' reading attention. We then recognized the semantics and calculated the readers' moral motivation expressed in the annotations and investigated the fine-grained dynamics of the moral motivation changing in each time slot within 24 hours of a day. Comprehensively comparing the division of different time intervals, sufficient experiments showed that the moral motivation reflected in the annotations in the afternoon is significantly higher than that in the morning. The results robustly verified the hypothesis that reading compensates for moral motivation, which we called the moral afternoon tea effect. Moreover, we quantitatively identified that such moral compensation can last until 14:00 in the afternoon and 21:00 in the evening. In addition, it is interesting to find that the division of time intervals of different units impacts the identification of moral rhythms. Dividing the time intervals by four-hour time slot brings more insights of moral rhythms compared with that of three-hour and six-hour time slot.

Keywords: digital reading, social annotation, moral motivation, morning morality effect, control compensation

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
495 A Comparison of Tsunami Impact to Sydney Harbour, Australia at Different Tidal Stages

Authors: Olivia A. Wilson, Hannah E. Power, Murray Kendall

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Sydney Harbour is an iconic location with a dense population and low-lying development. On the east coast of Australia, facing the Pacific Ocean, it is exposed to several tsunamigenic trenches. This paper presents a component of the most detailed assessment of the potential for earthquake-generated tsunami impact on Sydney Harbour to date. Models in this study use dynamic tides to account for tide-tsunami interaction. Sydney Harbour’s tidal range is 1.5 m, and the spring tides from January 2015 that are used in the modelling for this study are close to the full tidal range. The tsunami wave trains modelled include hypothetical tsunami generated from earthquakes of magnitude 7.5, 8.0, 8.5, and 9.0 MW from the Puysegur and New Hebrides trenches as well as representations of the historical 1960 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku events. All wave trains are modelled for the peak wave to coincide with both a low tide and a high tide. A single wave train, representing a 9.0 MW earthquake at the Puysegur trench, is modelled for peak waves to coincide with every hour across a 12-hour tidal phase. Using the hydrodynamic model ANUGA, results are compared according to the impact parameters of inundation area, depth variation and current speeds. Results show that both maximum inundation area and depth variation are tide dependent. Maximum inundation area increases when coincident with a higher tide, however, hazardous inundation is only observed for the larger waves modelled: NH90high and P90high. The maximum and minimum depths are deeper on higher tides and shallower on lower tides. The difference between maximum and minimum depths varies across different tidal phases although the differences are slight. Maximum current speeds are shown to be a significant hazard for Sydney Harbour; however, they do not show consistent patterns according to tide-tsunami phasing. The maximum current speed hazard is shown to be greater in specific locations such as Spit Bridge, a narrow channel with extensive marine infrastructure. The results presented for Sydney Harbour are novel, and the conclusions are consistent with previous modelling efforts in the greater area. It is shown that tide must be a consideration for both tsunami modelling and emergency management planning. Modelling with peak tsunami waves coinciding with a high tide would be a conservative approach; however, it must be considered that maximum current speeds may be higher on other tides.

Keywords: emergency management, sydney, tide-tsunami interaction, tsunami impact

Procedia PDF Downloads 242
494 Degradation Kinetics of Cardiovascular Implants Employing Full Blood and Extra-Corporeal Circulation Principles: Mimicking the Human Circulation In vitro

Authors: Sara R. Knigge, Sugat R. Tuladhar, Hans-Klaus HöFfler, Tobias Schilling, Tim Kaufeld, Axel Haverich

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Tissue engineered (TE) heart valves based on degradable electrospun fiber scaffold represent a promising approach to overcome the known limitations of mechanical or biological prostheses. But the mechanical stress in the high-pressure system of the human circulation is a severe challenge for the delicate materials. Hence, the prediction of the scaffolds` in vivo degradation kinetics must be as accurate as possible to prevent fatal events in future animal or even clinical trials. Therefore, this study investigates whether long-term testing in full blood provides more meaningful results regarding the degradation behavior than conventional tests in simulated body fluids (SBF) or Phosphate Buffered Saline (PBS). Fiber mats were produced from a polycaprolactone (PCL)/tetrafluoroethylene solution by electrospinning. The morphology of the fiber mats was characterized via scanning electron microscopy (SEM). A maximum physiological degradation environment utilizing a test set-up with porcine full blood was established. The set-up consists of a reaction vessel, an oxygenator unit, and a roller pump. The blood parameters (pO2, pCO2, temperature, and pH) were monitored with an online test system. All tests were also carried out in the test circuit with SBF and PBS to compare conventional degradation media with the novel full blood setting. The polymer's degradation is quantified by SEM picture analysis, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and Raman spectroscopy. Tensile and cyclic loading tests were performed to evaluate the mechanical integrity of the scaffold. Preliminary results indicate that PCL degraded slower in full blood than in SBF and PBS. The uptake of water is more pronounced in the full blood group. Also, PCL preserved its mechanical integrity longer when degraded in full blood. Protein absorption increased during the degradation process. Red blood cells, platelets, and their aggregates adhered on the PCL. Presumably, the degradation led to a more hydrophilic polymeric surface which promoted the protein adsorption and the blood cell adhesion. Testing degradable implants in full blood allows for developing more reliable scaffold materials in the future. Material tests in small and large animal trials thereby can be focused on testing candidates that have proven to function well in an in-vivo-like setting.

Keywords: Electrospun scaffold, full blood degradation test, long-term polymer degradation, tissue engineered aortic heart valve

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
493 Forecasting Residential Water Consumption in Hamilton, New Zealand

Authors: Farnaz Farhangi

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Many people in New Zealand believe that the access to water is inexhaustible, and it comes from a history of virtually unrestricted access to it. For the region like Hamilton which is one of New Zealand’s fastest growing cities, it is crucial for policy makers to know about the future water consumption and implementation of rules and regulation such as universal water metering. Hamilton residents use water freely and they do not have any idea about how much water they use. Hence, one of proposed objectives of this research is focusing on forecasting water consumption using different methods. Residential water consumption time series exhibits seasonal and trend variations. Seasonality is the pattern caused by repeating events such as weather conditions in summer and winter, public holidays, etc. The problem with this seasonal fluctuation is that, it dominates other time series components and makes difficulties in determining other variations (such as educational campaign’s effect, regulation, etc.) in time series. Apart from seasonality, a stochastic trend is also combined with seasonality and makes different effects on results of forecasting. According to the forecasting literature, preprocessing (de-trending and de-seasonalization) is essential to have more performed forecasting results, while some other researchers mention that seasonally non-adjusted data should be used. Hence, I answer the question that is pre-processing essential? A wide range of forecasting methods exists with different pros and cons. In this research, I apply double seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), considering diverse elements such as seasonality and calendar effects (public and school holidays) and combine their results to find the best predicted values. My hypothesis is the examination the results of combined method (hybrid model) and individual methods and comparing the accuracy and robustness. In order to use ARIMA, the data should be stationary. Also, ANN has successful forecasting applications in terms of forecasting seasonal and trend time series. Using a hybrid model is a way to improve the accuracy of the methods. Due to the fact that water demand is dominated by different seasonality, in order to find their sensitivity to weather conditions or calendar effects or other seasonal patterns, I combine different methods. The advantage of this combination is reduction of errors by averaging of each individual model. It is also useful when we are not sure about the accuracy of each forecasting model and it can ease the problem of model selection. Using daily residential water consumption data from January 2000 to July 2015 in Hamilton, I indicate how prediction by different methods varies. ANN has more accurate forecasting results than other method and preprocessing is essential when we use seasonal time series. Using hybrid model reduces forecasting average errors and increases the performance.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), double seasonal ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model

Procedia PDF Downloads 337
492 Thinking for Writing: Evidence of Language Transfer in Chinese ESL Learners’ Written Narratives

Authors: Nan Yang, Hye Pae

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English as a second language (ESL) learners are often observed to have transferred traits of their first languages (L1) and habits of using their L1s to their use of English (second language, L2), and this phenomenon is coined as language transfer. In addition to the transfer of linguistic features (e.g., grammar, vocabulary, etc.), which are relatively easy to observe and quantify, many cross-cultural theorists emphasized on a much subtle and fundamental transfer existing on a higher conceptual level that is referred to as conceptual transfer. Although a growing body of literature in linguistics has demonstrated evidence of L1 transfer in various discourse genres, very limited studies address the underlying conceptual transfer that is happening along with the language transfer, especially with the extended form of spontaneous discourses such as personal narrative. To address this issue, this study situates itself in the context of Chinese ESL learners’ written narratives, examines evidence of L1 conceptual transfer in comparison with native English speakers’ narratives, and provides discussion from the perspective of the conceptual transfer. It is hypothesized that Chinese ESL learners’ English narrative strategies are heavily influenced by the strategies that they use in Chinese as a result of the conceptual transfer. Understanding language transfer cognitively is of great significance in the realm of SLA, as it helps address challenges that ESL learners around the world are facing; allow native English speakers to develop a better understanding about how and why learners’ English is different; and also shed light in ESL pedagogy by providing linguistic and cultural expectations in native English-speaking countries. To achieve the goals, 40 college students were recruited (20 Chinese ESL learners and 20 native English speakers) in the United States, and their written narratives on the prompt 'The most frightening experience' were collected for quantitative discourse analysis. 40 written narratives (20 in Chinese and 20 in English) were collected from Chinese ESL learners, and 20 written narratives were collected from native English speakers. All written narratives were coded according to the coding scheme developed by the authors prior to data collection. Statistical descriptive analyses were conducted, and the preliminary results revealed that native English speakers included more narrative elements such as events and explicit evaluation comparing to Chinese ESL students’ both English and Chinese writings; the English group also utilized more evaluation device (i.e., physical state expressions, indirectly reported speeches, delineation) than Chinese ESL students’ both English and Chinese writings. It was also observed that Chinese ESL students included more orientation elements (i.e., the introduction of time/place, the introduction of character) in their Chinese and English writings than the native English-speaking participants. The findings suggest that a similar narrative strategy was observed in Chinese ESL learners’ Chinese narratives and English narratives, which is considered as the evidence of conceptual transfer from Chinese (L1) to English (L2). The results also indicate that distinct narrative strategies were used by Chinese ESL learners and native English speakers as a result of cross-cultural differences.

Keywords: Chinese ESL learners, language transfer, thinking-for-speaking, written narratives

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491 Festivals and Weddings in India during Corona Pandemic

Authors: Arul Aram, Vishnu Priya, Monicka Karunanithi

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In India, in particular, festivals are the occasions of celebrations. They create beautiful moments to cherish. Mostly, people pay a visit to their native places to celebrate with their loved ones. So are wedding celebrations. The Covid-19 pandemic came upon us unexpectedly, and to fight it, the festivals and weddings are celebrated unusually. Crowded places are deserted. Mass gatherings are avoided, changes and alterations are made in our rituals and celebrations. The warmth usually people have at their heart during any festival and wedding has disappeared. Some aspects of the celebrations become virtual/digital rather than real -- for instance, digital greetings/invitations, digital conduct of ceremonies by priests, YouTube worship, online/digital cash gifts, and digital audience for weddings. Each festival has different rituals which are followed with the divine nature in every family, but the pandemic warranted some compromises on the traditions. Likewise, a marriage is a beautiful bond between two families where a lot of traditional customs are followed. The wedding ceremonies are colorful and celebrations may extend for several days. People in India spend financial resources to prepare and celebrate weddings. The bride's and the groom's homes are fully decorated with colors, balloons and other decorations. The wedding rituals and celebrations vary by religion, region, preference and the resources of the groom, bride and their families. They can range from one day to multiple-days events. But the Covid-19 pandemic situation changes the mindset of people over ceremonies. This lockdown has affected those weddings and industries that support them and make the people postpone or at times advance without fanfare their 'big day.' People now adopt the protocols, guidelines and safety measures to reduce the risk and minimize the fear during celebrations. The study shall look into: how the pandemic shattered the expectations of people celebrating; problems faced economically by people/service providers who are benefited by the celebrations; and identify the alterations made in the rituals or the practices of our culture for the safety of families. The study shall employ questionnaires, interviews and visual ethnography to collect data. The study found that during a complete lockdown, people have not bought new clothes, sweets, or snacks, as they generally do before a pandemic. Almost all of them kept their celebrations low-key, and some did not celebrate at all. Digital media played a role in keeping the celebration alive, as people used it to wish their friends and families virtually. During partial unlock, the situation was under control, and people began to go out and see a few family and friends. They went shopping and bought new clothes and needs, but they did it while following safety precautions. There is also an equal percentage of people who shopped online. Although people continue to remain disappointed, they were less stressed up as life was returning to normal.

Keywords: covid-19, digital, festivals, India, wedding

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
490 Connecting the Dots: Bridging Academia and National Community Partnerships When Delivering Healthy Relationships Programming

Authors: Nicole Vlasman, Karamjeet Dhillon

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Over the past four years, the Healthy Relationships Program has been delivered in community organizations and schools across Canada. More than 240 groups have been facilitated in collaboration with 33 organizations. As a result, 2157 youth have been engaged in the programming. The purpose and scope of the Healthy Relationships Program are to offer sustainable, evidence-based skills through small group implementation to prevent violence and promote positive, healthy relationships in youth. The program development has included extensive networking at regional and national levels. The Healthy Relationships Program is currently being implemented, adapted, and researched within the Resilience and Inclusion through Strengthening and Enhancing Relationships (RISE-R) project. Alongside the project’s research objectives, the RISE-R team has worked to virtually share the ongoing findings of the project through a slow ontology approach. Slow ontology is a practice integrated into project systems and structures whereby slowing the pace and volume of outputs offers creative opportunities. Creative production reveals different layers of success and complements the project, the building blocks for sustainability. As a result of integrating a slow ontology approach, the RISE-R team has developed a Geographic Information System (GIS) that documents local landscapes through a Story Map feature, and more specifically, video installations. Video installations capture the cartography of space and place within the context of singular diverse community spaces (case studies). By documenting spaces via human connections, the project captures narratives, which further enhance the voices and faces of the community within the larger project scope. This GIS project aims to create a visual and interactive flow of information that complements the project's mixed-method research approach. Conclusively, creative project development in the form of a geographic information system can provide learning and engagement opportunities at many levels (i.e., within community organizations and educational spaces or with the general public). In each of these disconnected spaces, fragmented stories are connected through a visual display of project outputs. A slow ontology practice within the context of the RISE-R project documents activities on the fringes and within internal structures; primarily through documenting project successes as further contributions to the Centre for School Mental Health framework (philosophy, recruitment techniques, allocation of resources and time, and a shared commitment to evidence-based products).

Keywords: community programming, geographic information system, project development, project management, qualitative, slow ontology

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489 Natural Mexican Zeolite Modified with Iron to Remove Arsenic Ions from Water Sources

Authors: Maritza Estela Garay-Rodriguez, Mirella Gutierrez-Arzaluz, Miguel Torres-Rodriguez, Violeta Mugica-Alvarez

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Arsenic is an element present in the earth's crust and is dispersed in the environment through natural processes and some anthropogenic activities. Naturally released into the environment through the weathering and erosion of sulphides mineral, some activities such as mining, the use of pesticides or wood preservatives potentially increase the concentration of arsenic in air, water, and soil. The natural arsenic release of a geological material is a threat to the world's drinking water sources. In aqueous phase is found in inorganic form, as arsenate and arsenite mainly, the contamination of groundwater by salts of this element originates what is known as endemic regional hydroarsenicism. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) categorizes the inorganic As within group I, as a substance with proven carcinogenic action for humans. It has been found the presence of As in groundwater in several countries such as Argentina, Mexico, Bangladesh, Canada and the United States. Regarding the concentration of arsenic in drinking water according to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) establish maximum concentrations of 10 μg L⁻¹. In Mexico, in some states as Hidalgo, Morelos and Michoacán concentrations of arsenic have been found in bodies of water around 1000 μg L⁻¹, a concentration that is well above what is allowed by Mexican regulations with the NOM-127- SSA1-1994 that establishes a limit of 25 μg L⁻¹. Given this problem in Mexico, this research proposes the use of a natural Mexican zeolite (clinoptilolite type) native to the district of Etla in the central valley region of Oaxaca, as an adsorbent for the removal of arsenic. The zeolite was subjected to a conditioning with iron oxide by the precipitation-impregnation method with 0.5 M iron nitrate solution, in order to increase the natural adsorption capacity of this material. The removal of arsenic was carried out in a column with a fixed bed of conditioned zeolite, since it combines the advantages of a conventional filter with those of a natural adsorbent medium, providing a continuous treatment, of low cost and relatively easy to operate, for its implementation in marginalized areas. The zeolite was characterized by XRD, SEM/EDS, and FTIR before and after the arsenic adsorption tests, the results showed that the modification methods used are adequate to prepare adsorbent materials since it does not modify its structure, the results showed that with a particle size of 1.18 mm, an initial concentration of As (V) ions of 1 ppm, a pH of 7 and at room temperature, a removal of 98.7% was obtained with an adsorption capacity of 260 μg As g⁻¹ zeolite. The results obtained indicated that the conditioned zeolite is favorable for the elimination of arsenate in water containing up to 1000 μg As L⁻¹ and could be suitable for removing arsenate from pits of water.

Keywords: adsorption, arsenic, iron conditioning, natural zeolite

Procedia PDF Downloads 172
488 Accounting for Downtime Effects in Resilience-Based Highway Network Restoration Scheduling

Authors: Zhenyu Zhang, Hsi-Hsien Wei

Abstract:

Highway networks play a vital role in post-disaster recovery for disaster-damaged areas. Damaged bridges in such networks can disrupt the recovery activities by impeding the transportation of people, cargo, and reconstruction resources. Therefore, rapid restoration of damaged bridges is of paramount importance to long-term disaster recovery. In the post-disaster recovery phase, the key to restoration scheduling for a highway network is prioritization of bridge-repair tasks. Resilience is widely used as a measure of the ability to recover with which a network can return to its pre-disaster level of functionality. In practice, highways will be temporarily blocked during the downtime of bridge restoration, leading to the decrease of highway-network functionality. The failure to take downtime effects into account can lead to overestimation of network resilience. Additionally, post-disaster recovery of highway networks is generally divided into emergency bridge repair (EBR) in the response phase and long-term bridge repair (LBR) in the recovery phase, and both of EBR and LBR are different in terms of restoration objectives, restoration duration, budget, etc. Distinguish these two phases are important to precisely quantify highway network resilience and generate suitable restoration schedules for highway networks in the recovery phase. To address the above issues, this study proposes a novel resilience quantification method for the optimization of long-term bridge repair schedules (LBRS) taking into account the impact of EBR activities and restoration downtime on a highway network’s functionality. A time-dependent integer program with recursive functions is formulated for optimally scheduling LBR activities. Moreover, since uncertainty always exists in the LBRS problem, this paper extends the optimization model from the deterministic case to the stochastic case. A hybrid genetic algorithm that integrates a heuristic approach into a traditional genetic algorithm to accelerate the evolution process is developed. The proposed methods are tested using data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, based on a regional highway network in Sichuan, China, consisting of 168 highway bridges on 36 highways connecting 25 cities/towns. The results show that, in this case, neglecting the bridge restoration downtime can lead to approximately 15% overestimation of highway network resilience. Moreover, accounting for the impact of EBR on network functionality can help to generate a more specific and reasonable LBRS. The theoretical and practical values are as follows. First, the proposed network recovery curve contributes to comprehensive quantification of highway network resilience by accounting for the impact of both restoration downtime and EBR activities on the recovery curves. Moreover, this study can improve the highway network resilience from the organizational dimension by providing bridge managers with optimal LBR strategies.

Keywords: disaster management, highway network, long-term bridge repair schedule, resilience, restoration downtime

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487 Role of Platelet Volume Indices in Diabetes Related Vascular Angiopathies

Authors: Mitakshara Sharma, S. K. Nema, Sanjeev Narang

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Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a group of metabolic disorders characterized by metabolic abnormalities, chronic hyperglycaemia and long term macrovascular & microvascular complications. Vascular complications are due to platelet hyperactivity and dysfunction, increased inflammation, altered coagulation and endothelial dysfunction. Large proportion of patients with Type II DM suffers from preventable vascular angiopathies, and there is need to develop risk factor modifications and interventions to reduce impact of complications. These complications are attributed to platelet activation, recognised by increase in Platelet Volume Indices (PVI) including Mean Platelet Volume (MPV) and Platelet Distribution Width (PDW). The current study is prospective analytical study conducted over 2 years. Out of 1100 individuals, 930 individuals fulfilled inclusion criteria and were segregated into three groups on basis of glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1C): - (a) Diabetic, (b) Non-Diabetic and (c) Subjects with Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) with 300 individuals in IFG and non-diabetic groups & 330 individuals in diabetic group. Further, diabetic group was divided into two groups on the basis of presence or absence of known diabetes related vascular complications. Samples for HbA1c and PVI were collected using Ethylene diamine tetraacetic acid (EDTA) as anticoagulant and processed on SYSMEX-X-800i autoanalyser. The study revealed gradual increase in PVI from non-diabetics to IFG to diabetics. PVI were markedly increased in diabetic patients. MPV and PDW of diabetics, IFG and non diabetics were (17.60 ± 2.04)fl, (11.76 ± 0.73)fl, (9.93 ± 0.64)fl and (19.17 ± 1.48)fl, (15.49 ± 0.67)fl, (10.59 ± 0.67)fl respectively with a significant p value 0.00 and a significant positive correlation (MPV-HbA1c r = 0.951; PDW-HbA1c r = 0.875). MPV & PDW of subjects with diabetes related complications were higher as compared to those without them and were (17.51±0.39)fl & (15.14 ± 1.04)fl and (20.09 ± 0.98) fl & (18.96 ± 0.83)fl respectively with a significant p value 0.00. There was a significant positive correlation between PVI and duration of diabetes across the groups (MPV-HbA1c r = 0.951; PDW-HbA1c r = 0.875). However, a significant negative correlation was found between glycaemic levels and total platelet count (PC- HbA1c r =-0.164). This is multi-parameter and comprehensive study with an adequately powered study design. It can be concluded from our study that PVI are extremely useful and important indicators of impending vascular complications in all patients with deranged glycaemic control. Introduction of automated cell counters has facilitated the availability of PVI as routine parameters. PVI is a useful means for identifying larger & active platelets which play important role in development of micro and macro angiopathic complications of diabetes leading to mortality and morbidity. PVI can be used as cost effective markers to predict and prevent impending vascular events in patients with Diabetes mellitus especially in developing countries like India. PVI, if incorporated into protocols for management of diabetes, could revolutionize care and curtail the ever increasing cost of patient management.

Keywords: diabetes, IFG, HbA1C, MPV, PDW, PVI

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486 Predictability of Kiremt Rainfall Variability over the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia on Dekadal and Monthly Time Scales Using Global Sea Surface Temperature

Authors: Kibrom Hadush

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Countries like Ethiopia, whose economy is mainly rain-fed dependent agriculture, are highly vulnerable to climate variability and weather extremes. Sub-seasonal (monthly) and dekadal forecasts are hence critical for crop production and water resource management. Therefore, this paper was conducted to study the predictability and variability of Kiremt rainfall over the northern half of Ethiopia on monthly and dekadal time scales in association with global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at different lag time. Trends in rainfall have been analyzed on annual, seasonal (Kiremt), monthly, and dekadal (June–September) time scales based on rainfall records of 36 meteorological stations distributed across four homogenous zones of the northern half of Ethiopia for the period 1992–2017. The results from the progressive Mann–Kendall trend test and the Sen’s slope method shows that there is no significant trend in the annual, Kiremt, monthly and dekadal rainfall total at most of the station's studies. Moreover, the rainfall in the study area varies spatially and temporally, and the distribution of the rainfall pattern increases from the northeast rift valley to northwest highlands. Methods of analysis include graphical correlation and multiple linear regression model are employed to investigate the association between the global SSTs and Kiremt rainfall over the homogeneous rainfall zones and to predict monthly and dekadal (June-September) rainfall using SST predictors. The results of this study show that in general, SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is the main source of the predictive skill of the Kiremt rainfall variability over the northern half of Ethiopia. The regional SSTs in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean as well contribute to the Kiremt rainfall variability over the study area. Moreover, the result of the correlation analysis showed that the decline of monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over most of the homogeneous zones of the study area are caused by the corresponding persistent warming of the SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean during the period 1992 - 2017. It is also found that the monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over the northern, northwestern highlands and northeastern lowlands of Ethiopia are positively correlated with the SST in the western equatorial Pacific, eastern and tropical northern the Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, the SSTs in the western equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are positively correlated to the Kiremt season rainfall in the northeastern highlands. Overall, the results showed that the prediction models using combined SSTs at various ocean regions (equatorial and tropical) performed reasonably well in the prediction (With R2 ranging from 30% to 65%) of monthly and dekadal rainfall and recommends it can be used for efficient prediction of Kiremt rainfall over the study area to aid with systematic and informed decision making within the agricultural sector.

Keywords: dekadal, Kiremt rainfall, monthly, Northern Ethiopia, sea surface temperature

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485 Effects of Sexual Activities in Male Athletes Performance

Authors: Andreas Aceranti, Simonetta Vernocchi, Marco Colorato, Massimo Briamo, Giovanni Abalsamo

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Most of the benefits of sport come from related physical activity, however, there are secondary psychological positive effects. There are also obvious disadvantages, high tensions related to failure, injuries, eating disorders and burnout. Depressive symptoms and illnesses related to anxiety or stress can be preventable or even simply alleviated through regular activity and exercise. It has been shown that the practice of a sport brings physical benefits, but can also have psychological and spiritual benefits. Reduced performance in male individuals has been linked to sexual activity before competitions in the past. The long-standing debate about the impact of sexual activity on sports performance has been controversial in the mainstream media in recent decades. This salacious topic has generated extensive discussion, although its high-quality data has been limited. Literature has, so far, mainly included subjective assessments from surveys. However, such surveys can be skewed as these assessments are based on individual beliefs, perceptions, and memory. There has been a long discussion over the years but even there objective data has been lacking. One reason behind coaches' bans on sexual activity before sporting events may be the belief that abstinence increases frustration, which in turn is shifted into aggressive behavior toward competitors. However, this assumption is not always valid. In fact, depriving an athlete of a normal activity can cause feelings of guilt and loss of concentration. Sexual activity during training can promote relaxation and positively influence performance. The author concludes that, although there is a need for scientific research in this area, it seems that sexual intercourse does not decrease performance unless it is accompanied by late night socialization, loss of sleep or drinking. Although the effects of sexual engagement on aerobic and strength athletic performance have not been definitively established, most research seems to rule out a direct impact. In order to analyze, as much as possible without bias, whether sexual activity significantly affects an athletic performance or not, we sampled 5 amateur athletes, between 22 and 25 years old and all male. The study was based on the timing of 4 running races of 5 champions. We asked participants to respect guidelines to avoid sexual activity (sex or masturbation) 12 hours before 2 of the 4 competitions, and to practice before the remaining 2 races.In doing so, we were able to compare and analyze the impact of activity and abstinence on performance results. We have come to the conclusion that sexual behavior on athletic performance needs to be better understood, more randomized trials and high-quality controls are strongly needed but available information suggests that sexual activity the day before a race has no negative effects on performance.

Keywords: sex, masturbation, male performance, soccer

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