Search results for: input constraints

Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Construction projects are complex and often subject to significant cost overruns due to the multifaceted nature of the activities involved. Accurate cost estimation is crucial for effective budget planning and resource allocation. Traditional methods for predicting overruns often rely on expert judgment or analysis of historical data, which can be time-consuming, subjective, and may fail to consider important factors. However, with the increasing availability of data from construction projects, machine learning techniques can be leveraged to improve the accuracy of overrun predictions. This study applied machine learning algorithms to enhance the prediction of cost overruns in a case study of a construction project. The methodology involved the development and evaluation of two machine learning models: Random Forest and Neural Networks. Random Forest can handle high-dimensional data, capture complex relationships, and provide feature importance estimates. Neural Networks, particularly Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), are capable of automatically learning and modeling complex, non-linear relationships between input features and the target variable. These models can adapt to new data, reduce human bias, and uncover hidden patterns in the dataset. The findings of this study demonstrate that both Random Forest and Neural Networks can significantly improve the accuracy of cost overrun predictions compared to traditional methods. The Random Forest model also identified key cost drivers and risk factors, such as changes in the scope of work and delays in material delivery, which can inform better project risk management. However, the study acknowledges several limitations. First, the findings are based on a single construction project, which may limit the generalizability of the results to other projects or contexts. Second, the dataset, although comprehensive, may not capture all relevant factors influencing cost overruns, such as external economic conditions or political factors. Third, the study focuses primarily on cost overruns, while schedule overruns are not explicitly addressed. Future research should explore the application of machine learning techniques to a broader range of projects, incorporate additional data sources, and investigate the prediction of both cost and schedule overruns simultaneously.

Keywords: resource allocation, machine learning, optimization, data-driven decision-making, project management

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Authors: Zhuang Yiwen

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The paper examines the challenges facing the Singapore healthcare system related to the tracking and traceability of medical devices. One of the major challenges identified is the lack of a standard coding system for medical devices, which makes it difficult to track them effectively. The paper suggests the use of the Unique Device Identifier (UDI) as a single standard for medical devices to improve tracking and reduce errors. The paper also explores the use of barcoding and image recognition to identify and document medical devices in nursing practices. In nursing practices, the use of barcodes for identifying medical devices is common. However, the information contained in these barcodes is often inconsistent, making it challenging to identify which segment contains the model identifier. Moreover, the use of barcodes may be improved with the use of UDI, but many subsidized accessories may still lack barcodes. The paper suggests that the readiness for UDI and barcode standardization requires standardized information, fields, and logic in electronic medical record (EMR), operating theatre (OT), and billing systems, as well as barcode scanners that can read various formats and selectively parse barcode segments. Nursing workflow and data flow also need to be taken into account. The paper also explores the use of image recognition, specifically the Tesseract OCR engine, to identify and document implants in public hospitals due to limitations in barcode scanning. The study found that the solution requires an implant information database and checking output against the database. The solution also requires customization of the algorithm, cropping out objects affecting text recognition, and applying adjustments. The solution requires additional resources and costs for a mobile/hardware device, which may pose space constraints and require maintenance of sterile criteria. The integration with EMR is also necessary, and the solution require changes in the user's workflow. The paper suggests that the long-term use of Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) as a supporting terminology to improve clinical documentation and data exchange in healthcare. SNOMED CT provides a standardized way of documenting and sharing clinical information with respect to procedure, patient and device documentation, which can facilitate interoperability and data exchange. In conclusion, the paper highlights the challenges facing the Singapore healthcare system related to the tracking and traceability of medical devices. The paper suggests the use of UDI and barcode standardization to improve tracking and reduce errors. It also explores the use of image recognition to identify and document medical devices in nursing practices. The paper emphasizes the importance of standardized information, fields, and logic in EMR, OT, and billing systems, as well as barcode scanners that can read various formats and selectively parse barcode segments. These recommendations could help the Singapore healthcare system to improve tracking and traceability of medical devices and ultimately enhance patient safety.

Keywords: medical device tracking, unique device identifier, barcoding and image recognition, systematized nomenclature of medicine clinical terms

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Authors: Pappu Kumar, Ajai Singh, Anshuman Singh

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There are different water user sectors such as rural, urban, mining, subsistence and commercial irrigated agriculture, commercial forestry, industry, power generation which are present in the catchment in Subarnarekha River Basin and Ranchi city. There is an inequity issue in the access to water. The development of the rural area, construction of new power generation plants, along with the population growth, the requirement of unmet water demand and the consideration of environmental flows, the revitalization of small-scale irrigation schemes is going to increase the water demands in almost all the water-stressed catchment. The WEAP Model was developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) to enable evaluation of planning and management issues associated with water resources development. The WEAP model can be used for both urban and rural areas and can address a wide range of issues including sectoral demand analyses, water conservation, water rights and allocation priorities, river flow simulation, reservoir operation, ecosystem requirements and project cost-benefit analyses. This model is a tool for integrated water resource management and planning like, forecasting water demand, supply, inflows, outflows, water use, reuse, water quality, priority areas and Hydropower generation, In the present study, efforts have been made to access the utility of the WEAP model for water supply and demand analysis for Ranchi city. A detailed works have been carried out and it was tried to ascertain that the WEAP model used for generating different scenario of water requirement, which could help for the future planning of water. The water supplied to Ranchi city was mostly contributed by our study river, Hatiya reservoir and ground water. Data was collected from various agencies like PHE Ranchi, census data of 2011, Doranda reservoir and meteorology department etc. This collected and generated data was given as input to the WEAP model. The model generated the trends for discharge of our study river up to next 2050 and same time also generated scenarios calculating our demand and supplies for feature. The results generated from the model outputs predicting the water require 12 million litter. The results will help in drafting policies for future regarding water supplies and demands under changing climatic scenarios.

Keywords: WEAP model, water demand analysis, Ranchi, scenarios

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Authors: Dina Magnaye

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In the Philippines, the performance of the agricultural sector is gauged through crop productivity and returns from farm production rather than the biodiversity in the agricultural ecosystem. Agricultural development hinges on the overall goal of increasing productivity through intensive agriculture, monoculture system, utilization of high yielding varieties in plants, and genetic upgrading in animals. This merits an analysis of the role of agro-biodiversity in terms of increasing productivity, food security and economic returns from community-based pro-biodiversity enterprises. These enterprises conserve biodiversity while equitably sharing production income in the utilization of biological resources. The study aims to determine how community-based pro-biodiversity enterprises become instrumental in local climate change adaptation and agro-biodiversity conservation as input to local green economic development planning. It also involves an assessment of the role of agrobiodiversity in terms of increasing productivity, food security and economic returns from community-based pro-biodiversity enterprises. The perceptions of the local community members both in urban and upland rural areas on community-based pro-biodiversity enterprises were evaluated. These served as a basis in developing a planning modality that can be mainstreamed in the management of local green economic enterprises to benefit the environment, provide local income opportunities, conserve species diversity, and sustain environment-friendly farming systems and practices. The interviews conducted with organic farmer-owners, entrepreneur-organic farmers, and organic farm workers revealed that pro-biodiversity enterprise such as organic farming involved the cyclic use of natural resources within the carrying capacity of a farm; recognition of the value of tradition and culture especially in the upland rural area; enhancement of socio-economic capacity; conservation of ecosystems in harmony with nature; and climate change mitigation. The suggested planning modality for community-based pro-biodiversity enterprises for a green economy encompasses four (4) phases to include community resource or capital asset profiling; stakeholder vision development; strategy formulation for sustained enterprises; and monitoring and evaluation.

Keywords: agro-biodiversity, agro-biodiversity conservation, local green economy, organic farming, pro-biodiversity enterprise

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Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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The modeling of a spatial-economic database is crucial in recitation economic network structure to social development. Sustainability within the spatial-economic model gives attention to green businesses to comply with Earth’s Systems. The natural exchange patterns of ecosystems have consistent and periodic cycles to preserve energy and materials flow in systems ecology. When network topology influences formal and informal communication to function in systems ecology, ecosystems are postulated to valence the basic level of spatial sustainable outcome (i.e., project compatibility success). These referred instrumentalities impact various aspects of the second level of spatial sustainable outcomes (i.e., participant social security satisfaction). The sustainability outcomes are modeling composite structure based on a network analysis model to calculate the prosperity of panel databases for efficiency value, from 2005 to 2025. The database is modeling spatial structure to represent state-of-the-art value-orientation impact and corresponding complexity of sustainability issues (e.g., build a consistent database necessary to approach spatial structure; construct the spatial-economic-ecological model; develop a set of sustainability indicators associated with the model; allow quantification of social, economic and environmental impact; use the value-orientation as a set of important sustainability policy measures), and demonstrate spatial structure reliability. The structure of spatial-ecological model is established for management schemes from the perspective pollutants of multiple sources through the input–output criteria. These criteria evaluate the spillover effect to conduct Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis in a unique spatial structure. The balance within “equilibrium patterns,” such as collective biosphere features, has a composite index of many distributed feedback flows. The following have a dynamic structure related to physical and chemical properties for gradual prolong to incremental patterns. While these spatial structures argue from ecological modeling of resource savings, static loads are not decisive from an artistic/architectural perspective. The model attempts to unify analytic and analogical spatial structure for the development of urban environments in a relational database setting, using optimization software to integrate spatial structure where the process is based on the engineering topology of systems ecology.

Keywords: ecological modeling, spatial structure, orientation impact, composite index, industrial ecology

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Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

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Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

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Authors: Nathalie Stephenne, Mathieu Veschkens, Stéphane Palm, Christophe Charlemagne, Jacques Defoux

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According to Europe’s first River basin Management Plans (RBMPs), 56% of European rivers failed to achieve the good status targets of the Water Framework Directive WFD. In Central European countries such as Belgium, even more than 80% of rivers failed to achieve the WFD quality targets. Although the RBMP’s should reduce the stressors and improve water body status, their potential to address multiple stress situations is limited due to insufficient knowledge on combined effects, multi-stress, prioritization of measures, impact on ecology and implementation effects. This paper describes a webGis prototype developed for the Walloon administration to improve the communication and the management of sediment dredging actions carried out in rivers and lakes in the frame of RBMPs. A large number of stakeholders are involved in the management of rivers and lakes in Wallonia. They are in charge of technical aspects (client and dredging operators, organizations involved in the treatment of waste…), management (managers involved in WFD implementation at communal, provincial or regional level) or policy making (people responsible for policy compliance or legislation revision). These different kinds of stakeholders need different information and data to cover their duties but have to interact closely at different levels. Moreover, information has to be shared between them to improve the management quality of dredging operations within the ecological system. In the Walloon legislation, leveling dredged sediments on banks requires an official authorization from the administration. This request refers to spatial information such as the official land use map, the cadastral map, the distance to potential pollution sources. The production of a collective geodatabase can facilitate the management of these authorizations from both sides. The proposed internet system integrates documents, data input, integration of data from disparate sources, map representation, database queries, analysis of monitoring data, presentation of results and cartographic visualization. A prototype of web application using the API geoviewer chosen by the Geomatic department of the SPW has been developed and discussed with some potential users to facilitate the communication, the management and the quality of the data. The structure of the paper states the why, what, who and how of this communication tool.

Keywords: sediments, web application, GIS, rivers management

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Authors: Mark Heads, Carrie Adamson

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Introduction This study evaluated the educational merits of the teaching activities of ‘Sheffield Anatomy Society,’ a student society with minimal faculty oversight which delivers near peer teaching in a range of formats to support students in their revision. Near peer, teaching is defined as teaching delivered by more senior students who have themselves recently completed the course content. This study was conducted between early April and late May 2022. This programme aims to improve student knowledge of anatomy, increase student confidence in their anatomy learning and cultivate a sense of community. The sessions were delivered by more senior medical students and by medical students undertaking an intercalated Master's degree in Human Anatomy with Education. Background: The majority of studies concerning near peer teaching focus on faculty designed programmes. Few studies have examined entirely student led near peer teaching of anatomy. Existing studies have been favourable but have limited qualitative examination of the benefits and weaknesses of near peer teaching. Various drawbacks have been proposed in the literature but not extensively investigated in practice. This study examines student led near peer anatomy teaching across a range of formats and considers these proposed criticisms. Methods: The teaching series consisted of 11 online lectures, a small group teaching session, two in person mock spotter examinations, and an online mock examination. Feedback forms were given for each session, and follow up interviews were conducted. Thematic analysis utilising an interpretivist epistemology was conducted on the feedback form responses and interview transcripts. Findings: 207 first year medical students, 34 second year biomedical science students, and 12 third year biomedical science students completed one or more feedback forms following these sessions, with 875 responses being collected in total. Six interviews were conducted. 99.5% of respondents said that they would recommend these sessions to other students. The quantitative results ranged from a mean of 4.6-4.8/5 per session when asked to rate how useful the students found it. Qualitative: analysis yielded numerous strengths and some weaknesses of the programme. The most commonly cited strength was that students found the explanations readily comprehensible. Students also praised the interactive nature of the sessions, with students frequently saying they felt more able to engage with interactive elements and ask questions in these sessions than in faculty teaching. Students did, however, raise some issues. The most common drawback students mentioned was a desire for more help preparing for their examinations, especially more examination style questions. Criticisms of the teaching itself were less prominent and typically reflected time constraints and limited resources. Conclusions : This study suggests student organised near peer teaching, utilising interactive online lectures, small group teaching, and mock examinations, can be an effective method for supporting students studying anatomy. Students reported improvements in their knowledge as a result of the sessions, greater confidence approaching their examinations, and this programme has helped foster an environment where students feel able to ask questions outside of sessions and even get involved with teaching themselves the following academic year.

Keywords: medical education, near peer teaching, anatomy teaching, online learning

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Authors: Zhuang Ma, Zihan Zhang, Yu Li

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Environmental concerns from stakeholders (e.g., governments & customers) have pushed firms to integrate environmental management systems into business processes such as R&D, manufacturing, and marketing. Environmental systems include managing environmental risks and pollution control (e.g., air pollution control, waste-water treatment, noise control, energy recycling & solid waste treatment) through raw material management, the elimination and reduction of contaminants, recycling, and reuse in firms' operational processes. Despite increasing studies on firms' proactive adoption of environmental management, their focus is primarily on large corporations operating in developed economies. Investigations in the environmental management efforts of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are scarce. This is problematic for SMEs because, unlike large corporations, SMEs have limited awareness, resources, capabilities to adapt their operational routines to address environmental impacts. The purpose of this study is to explore how SMEs develop organizational capabilities through interactions with business partners (e.g., environmental management specialists & customers). Drawing on the resource-based view (RBV) and an organizational capabilities perspective, this study investigates the interactively developed capabilities that allow SMEs to adopt environmental management systems. Using an exploratory approach, the study includes 12 semi-structured interviews with senior managers from four SMEs, two environmental management specialists, and two customers in the pharmaceutical sector in Chongqing, China. Findings of this study include four key organizational capabilities: 1) ‘dynamic marketing’ capability, which allows SMEs to recoup the investments in environmental management systems by developing environmentally friendly products to address customers' ever-changing needs; 2) ‘process improvement’ capability, which allows SMEs to select and adopt the latest technologies from biology, chemistry, new material, and new energy sectors into the production system for improved environmental performance and cost-reductions; and 3) ‘relationship management’ capability which allows SMEs to improve corporate image among the public, social media, government agencies, and customers, who in turn help SMEs to overcome their competitive disadvantages. These interactively developed capabilities help SMEs to address larger competitors' foothold in the local market, reduce market constraints, and exploit competitive advantages in other regions (e.g., Guangdong & Jiangsu) of China. These findings extend the RBV and organizational capabilities perspective; that is, SMEs can develop the essential resources and capabilities required for environmental management through interactions with upstream and downstream business partners. While a limited number of studies did highlight the importance of interactions among SMEs, customers, suppliers, NGOs, industrial associations, and consulting firms, they failed to explore the specific capabilities developed through these interactions. Additionally, the findings can explain how a proactive adoption of environmental management systems could help some SMEs to overcome the institutional and market restraints on their products, thereby springboarding into larger, more environmentally demanding, yet more profitable markets compared with their existing market.

Keywords: capabilities, environmental management systems, interactions, SMEs

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Authors: J. D. García Espinel, Paula Pérez Sánchez, Carlos Egea Ruiz, Carlos Lardín Mifsut, Andrés López-Aranguren Oliver

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This paper shortly describes three main actuations over a Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) for reducing its energy consumption: Optimization of the biological reactor in the aeration stage by including new control algorithms and introducing new efficient equipment, the installation of an innovative hybrid system with zero Grid injection (formed by 100kW of PV energy and 5 kW of mini-wind energy generation) and an intelligent management system for load consumption and energy generation control in the most optimum way. This project called RENEWAT, involved in the European Commission call LIFE 2013, has the main objective of reducing the energy consumptions through different actions on the processes which take place in a WWTP and introducing renewable energies on these treatment plants, with the purpose of promoting the usage of treated waste water for irrigation and decreasing the C02 gas emissions. WWTP is always required before waste water can be reused for irrigation or discharged in water bodies. However, the energetic demand of the treatment process is high enough for making the price of treated water to exceed the one for drinkable water. This makes any policy very difficult to encourage the re-use of treated water, with a great impact on the water cycle, particularly in those areas suffering hydric stress or deficiency. The cost of treating waste water involves another climate-change related burden: the energy necessary for the process is obtained mainly from the electric network, which is, in most of the cases in Europe, energy obtained from the burning of fossil fuels. The innovative part of this project is based on the implementation, adaptation and integration of solutions for this problem, together with a new concept of the integration of energy input and operative energy demand. Moreover, there is an important qualitative jump between the technologies used and the alleged technologies to use in the project which give it an innovative character, due to the fact that there are no similar previous experiences of a WWTP including an intelligent discrimination of energy sources, integrating renewable ones (PV and Wind) and the grid.

Keywords: aeration system, biological reactor, CO2 emissions, energy efficiency, hybrid systems, LIFE 2013 call, process optimization, renewable energy sources, wasted water treatment plants

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Authors: Karen Eastman

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More youths and young adults with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have been entering the workforce in recent years. Historically, students with ASD struggle after leaving high school and experience lower rates of employment, with social skills continuing to be the most problematic area of concern. Special education teachers may find it challenging to identify effective combinations of evidence-based practices (EBPs) and supports to best guide these students. One EBP, Peer Mediated Instruction and Intervention (PMII) has been well documented in the literature as being effective for younger students with autism but not researched as much with older students and adults, particularly in work settings. A need to combine PMII with other EBPs has been identified as a way to achieve a greater positive impact rather than any practice alone. A multiple baseline across skills design was used in this research project with two participants in different settings. PMII was combined with Visual Supports, with typical peers being trained in both practices. PMII is an evidence-based practice used to address social concerns by training peers without disabilities as to how they can provide feedback to and support, the student with ASD with social interactions in structured settings. The peers without disabilities were the instructors, while the adults facilitated the social situations and provided support to both the peers and students with ASD when needed. Because many individuals with ASD learn best with visual input, rather than using only the spoken word (verbal directions and feedback), Visual Supports were used in conjunction with PMII. Visual Supports can include written words, pictures, symbols, videos, or objects. In this project, the Visual Supports used were written social scripts, videos, Stop and Think signs, written reminder cards, a school map, and a pictorial task analysis of work tasks. Variables that may affect intervention outcomes in this project included attendance at school and school-based work settings for both the students with ASD and the peers without disabilities and behaviors and responses from others in the settings. Qualitative data was also collected from observations and surveys with peers about the process and their role. Data indicated that the students with ASD responded more positively to redirection and support from their peers than to teachers and staff and showed an increase in positive interactions with others. Those surveyed indicated a positive attitude toward and response to the use of peer interventions with visual supports.

Keywords: autism, social skills, vocational training, peer interventions

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Authors: Al-Juhaishi Mohammed, Mikael Motelica-Heino, Fabrice Muller, Audrey Guirimand-Dufour, Christian Défarge

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This study aims at improving the urban hydrological cycle of the Orléans agglomeration (France) and understanding the relationship between physical and chemical parameters of urban surface runoff and the hydrological conditions. In particular water quality parameters such as pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, major dissolved cations and anions, and chemical and biological oxygen demands were monitored for three types of urban water discharges (wastewater treatment plant output (WWTP), storm overflow and stormwater outfall) under two hydrologic scenarii (dry and wet weather). The first results were obtained over a period of five months.Each investigated (Ormes and l’Egoutier) outfall represents an urban runoff source that receives water from runoff roads, gutters, the irrigation of gardens and other sources of flow over the Earth’s surface that drains in its catchments and carries it to the Loire River. In wet weather conditions there is rain water runoff and an additional input from the roof gutters that have entered the stormwater system during rainfall. For the comparison the results La Chilesse is a storm overflow that was selected in our study as a potential source of waste water which is located before the (WWTP).The comparison of the physical-chemical parameters (total dissolved solids, turbidity, pH, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), concentration of major cations and anions) together with the chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biological oxygen demand (BOD) helped to characterize sources of runoff waters in the different watersheds. It also helped to highlight the infiltration of wastewater in some stormwater systems that reject directly in the Loire River. The values of the conductivity measured in the outflow of Ormes were always higher than those measured in the other two outlets. The results showed a temporal variation for the Ormes outfall of conductivity from 1465 µS cm-1 in the dry weather flow to 650 µS cm-1 in the wet weather flow and also a spatial variation in the wet weather flow from 650 µS cm-1 in the Ormes outfall to 281 μS cm-1 in L’Egouttier outfall. The ultimate BOD (BOD28) showed a significant decrease in La Corne outfall from 210 mg L-1 in the wet weather flow to 75 mg L-1 in the dry weather flow because of the nutrient load that was transported by the runoff.

Keywords: BOD, COD, the Loire River, urban hydrology, urban dry and wet weather discharges, macronutrients

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Authors: Ana Rodrigues, Maria Cadilhe, Filipa Ferreira, Claudia Pereira, Marta Santos

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Professional paths must be understood in the multiplicity of their possible configurations. While some actors tend to represent their path as a harmonious succession of positions in the life cycle, most recognize the existence of unforeseen and uncontrollable bifurcations, caused, for example, by a work accident or by going through a period of unemployment. Considering the intensified challenges posed by the ongoing societal changes (e.g., technological and demographic), and looking at the Portuguese context, where the unemployment rate continues to be more evident in certain age groups, like in individuals aged 45 years or over, it is essential to support those adults by providing strategies capable of supporting them during professional transitions, being this a joint responsibility of governments, employers, workers, educational institutions, among others. Concerned about those issues, Porto City Council launched the challenge of designing and implementing a Lifelong Career Guidance program, which was answered with the presentation of a customized conceptual and operational model: groWing|Lifelong Career Guidance. A pilot project targeting working-age adults (35 or older) who were unemployed was carried out, aiming to support them to reconstruct their professional paths, through the recovery of their past experiences and through a reflection about dimensions such as skills, interests, constraints, and labor market. A research action approach was used to assess the proposed model, namely the perceived relevance of the theme and of the project, by adults themselves (N=44), employment professionals (N=15) and local companies (N=15), in an integrated manner. A set of activities were carried out: a train the trainer course and a monitoring session with employment professionals; collective and individual sessions with adults, including a monitoring session as well; and a workshop with local companies. Support materials for individual/collective reflection about professional paths were created and adjusted for each involved agent. An evaluation model was co-build by different stakeholders. Assessment was carried through a form created for the purpose, completed at the end of the different activities, which allowed us to collect quantitative and qualitative data. Statistical analysis was carried through SPSS software. Results showed that the participants, as well as the employment professionals and the companies involved, considered both the topic and the project as extremely relevant. Also, adults saw the project as an opportunity to reflect on their paths and become aware of the opportunities and the necessary conditions to achieve their goals; the professionals highlighted the support given by an integrated methodology and the existence of tools to assist the process; companies valued the opportunity to think about the topic and the possible initiatives they could implement within the company to diversify their recruitment pool. The results allow us to conclude that, in the local context under study, there is an alignment between different agents regarding the pertinence of supporting adults with work experience in professional transitions, seeing the project as a relevant strategy to address this issue, which justifies that it can be extended in time and to other working-age adults in the future.

Keywords: professional paths, research action, turning points, lifelong career guidance, relevance

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Authors: M.Sivaramakrishnaiah, D. S .Nasan, P. V. Subhanjeneyulu, J. A. Sandeep Kumar, N. Sreenivasulu, B. V. Amarnath Reddy, B. Veeralingam

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Design, numerical simulation, fabrication, and physical experimentation of the Tesla’s Bladeless centripetal turbine for generating electrical power are presented in this research paper. 29 Pressurized air combined with water via a nozzle system is made to pass tangentially through a set of parallel smooth discs surfaces, which impart rotational motion to the discs fastened common shaft for the power generation. The power generated depends upon the fluid speed parameter leaving the nozzle inlet. Physically due to laminar boundary layer phenomena at smooth disc surface, the high speed fluid layers away from the plate moving against the low speed fluid layers nearer to the plate develop a tangential drag from the viscous shear forces. This compels the nearer layers to drag along with the high layers causing the disc to spin. Solid Works design software and fluid mechanics and machine elements design theories was used to compute mechanical design specifications of turbine parts like 48 mm diameter discs, common shaft, central exhaust, plenum chamber, swappable nozzle inlets, etc. Also, ANSYS CFX 2018 was used for the numerical 2 simulation of the physical phenomena encountered in the turbine working. When various numerical simulation and physical experimental results were verified, there is good agreement between them 6, both quantitatively and qualitatively. The sources of input and size of the blades may affect the power generated and turbine efficiency, respectively. The results may change if there is a change in the fluid flowing between the discs. The inlet fluid pressure versus turbine efficiency and the number of discs versus turbine power studies based on both results were carried out to develop the 8 relationships between the inlet and outlet parameters of the turbine. The present research work obtained the turbine efficiency in the range of 7-10%, and for this range; the electrical power output generated was 50-60 W.

Keywords: tesla turbine, cohesion type bladeless turbine, boundary layer theory, cohesion type bladeless turbine, tangential fluid flow, viscous and adhesive forces, plenum chamber, pico hydro systems

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Authors: Abha Gupta, Deepak K. Mishra

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Food security issue in India has surrounded over availability and accessibility of cereal which is regarded as the only food group to check hunger and improve nutrition. Significance of fruits, vegetables, meat and other food products have totally been neglected given the fact that they provide essential nutrients to the body. There is a need to shift the emphasis from cereal-based approach to a more diverse diet so that aim of achieving food security may change from just reducing hunger to an overall health. This paper attempts to analyse how far dietary diversity level has been achieved across different socio-economic groups in India. For this purpose, present paper sets objectives to determine (a) percentage share of different food groups to total food expenditure and consumption by background characteristics (b) source of and preference for all food items and, (c) diversity of diet across socio-economic groups. A cross sectional survey covering 304 households selected through proportional stratified random sampling was conducted in six villages of Aligarh district of Uttar Pradesh, India. Information on amount of food consumed, source of consumption and expenditure on food (74 food items grouped into 10 major food groups) was collected with a recall period of seven days. Per capita per day food consumption/expenditure was calculated through dividing consumption/expenditure by household size and number seven. Food variety score was estimated by giving 0 values to those food groups/items which had not been eaten and 1 to those which had been taken by households in last seven days. Addition of all food group/item score gave result of food variety score. Diversity of diet was computed using Herfindahl-Hirschman index. Findings of the paper show that cereal, milk, roots and tuber food groups contribute a major share in total consumption/expenditure. Consumption of these food groups vary across socio-economic groups whereas fruit, vegetables, meat and other food consumption remain low and same. Estimation of dietary diversity show higher concentration of diet due to higher consumption of cereals, milk, root and tuber products and dietary diversity slightly varies across background groups. Muslims, Scheduled caste, small farmers, lower income class, food insecure, below poverty line and labour families show higher concentration of diet as compared to their counterpart groups. These groups also evince lower mean intake of number of food item in a week due to poor economic constraints and resultant lower accessibility to number of expensive food items. Results advocate to make a shift from cereal based diet to dietary diversity which not only includes cereal and milk products but also nutrition rich food items such as fruits, vegetables, meat and other products. Integrating a dietary diversity approach in food security programmes of the country would help to achieve nutrition security as hidden hunger is widespread among the Indian population.

Keywords: dietary diversity, food Security, India, socio-economic groups

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Authors: K. Bencherif, M. Bellifa

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The expected climatic changes in North Africa are the increase of both intensity and frequencies of the summer droughts and a reduction in water availability during growing season. The exiting coppices and forest formations in the national park of Tlemcen are dominated by holm oak, zen oak and cork oak. These opened-fragmented structures don’t seem enough strong so to hope durable protection against climate change. According to the observed climatic tendency, the objective is to analyze the climatic context and its evolution taking into account the eventual behaving of the oak species during the next 20-30 years on one side and the landscaped context in relation with the most adequate sylvicultural models to choose and especially in relation with human activities on another side. The study methodology is based on Climatic synthesis and Floristic and spatial analysis. Meteorological data of the decade 1989-2009 are used to characterize the current climate. An another approach, based on dendrochronological analysis of a 120 years sample Aleppo pine stem growing in the park, is used so to analyze the climate evolution during one century. Results on the climate evolution during the 50 years obtained through climatic predictive models are exploited so to predict the climate tendency in the park. Spatially, in each forest unit of the Park, stratified sampling is achieved so to reduce the degree of heterogeneity and to easily delineate different stands using the GPS. Results from precedent study are used to analyze the anthropogenic factor considering the forecasts for the period 2025-2100, the number of warm days with a temperature over 25°C would increase from 30 to 70. The monthly mean temperatures of the maxima’s (M) and the minima’s (m) would pass respectively from 30.5°C to 33°C and from 2.3°C to 4.8°C. With an average drop of 25%, precipitations will be reduced to 411.37 mm. These new data highlight the importance of the risk fire and the water stress witch would affect the vegetation and the regeneration process. Spatial analysis highlights the forest and the agricultural dimensions of the park compared to the urban habitat and bare soils. Maps show both fragmentation state and forest surface regression (50% of total surface). At the level of the park, fires affected already all types of covers creating low structures with various densities. On the silvi cultural plan, Zen oak form in some places pure stands and this invasion must be considered as a natural tendency where Zen oak becomes the structuring specie. Climate-related changes have nothing to do with the real impact that South-Mediterranean forests are undergoing because human constraints they support. Nevertheless, hardwoods stand of oak in the national park of Tlemcen will face up to unexpected climate changes such as changing rainfall regime associated with a lengthening of the period of water stress, to heavy rainfall and/or to sudden cold snaps. Faced with these new conditions, management based on mixed uneven aged high forest method promoting the more dynamic specie could be an appropriate measure.

Keywords: global warming, mediterranean forest, oak shrub-lands, Tlemcen

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Authors: Simon Espigolé, Igor Shalyminov, Helen Hastie

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Deep machine learning techniques including deep neural networks (DNN) have been used to model language and dialogue for conversational agents to perform tasks, such as giving technical support and also for general chit-chat. They have been shown to be capable of generating long, diverse and coherent sentences in end-to-end dialogue systems and natural language generation. However, these systems tend to imitate the training data and will only generate the concepts and language within the scope of what they have been trained on. This work explores how deep neural networks can be used in a task that would normally require human creativity, whereby the human would read the movie description and/or watch the movie and come up with a compelling, interesting movie title. This task differs from simple summarization in that the movie title may not necessarily be derivable from the content or semantics of the movie description. Here, we train a type of DNN called a sequence-to-sequence model (seq2seq) that takes as input a short textual movie description and some information on e.g. genre of the movie. It then learns to output a movie title. The idea is that the DNN will learn certain techniques and approaches that the human movie titler may deploy that may not be immediately obvious to the human-eye. To give an example of a generated movie title, for the movie synopsis: ‘A hitman concludes his legacy with one more job, only to discover he may be the one getting hit.’; the original, true title is ‘The Driver’ and the one generated by the model is ‘The Masquerade’. A human evaluation was conducted where the DNN output was compared to the true human-generated title, as well as a number of baselines, on three 5-point Likert scales: ‘creativity’, ‘naturalness’ and ‘suitability’. Subjects were also asked which of the two systems they preferred. The scores of the DNN model were comparable to the scores of the human-generated movie title, with means m=3.11, m=3.12, respectively. There is room for improvement in these models as they were rated significantly less ‘natural’ and ‘suitable’ when compared to the human title. In addition, the human-generated title was preferred overall 58% of the time when pitted against the DNN model. These results, however, are encouraging given the comparison with a highly-considered, well-crafted human-generated movie title. Movie titles go through a rigorous process of assessment by experts and focus groups, who have watched the movie. This process is in place due to the large amount of money at stake and the importance of creating an effective title that captures the audiences’ attention. Our work shows progress towards automating this process, which in turn may lead to a better understanding of creativity itself.

Keywords: creativity, deep machine learning, natural language generation, movies

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Authors: J. Satya Eswari, J. Sekhar Babub, Meena Murmu, Govardhan Bhat

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Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM) is an unconventional manufacturing process based on removal of material from a part by means of a series of repeated electrical sparks created by electric pulse generators at short intervals between a electrode tool and the part to be machined emmersed in dielectric fluid. In this paper, a study will be performed on the influence of the factors of peak current, pulse on time, interval time and power supply voltage. The output responses measured were material removal rate (MRR) and surface roughness. Finally, the parameters were optimized for maximum MRR with the desired surface roughness. RSM involves establishing mathematical relations between the design variables and the resulting responses and optimizing the process conditions. RSM is not free from problems when it is applied to multi-factor and multi-response situations. Design of experiments (DOE) technique to select the optimum machining conditions for machining AISI 4140 using EDM. The purpose of this paper is to determine the optimal factors of the electro-discharge machining (EDM) process investigate feasibility of design of experiment techniques. The work pieces used were rectangular plates of AISI 4140 grade steel alloy. The study of optimized settings of key machining factors like pulse on time, gap voltage, flushing pressure, input current and duty cycle on the material removal, surface roughness is been carried out using central composite design. The objective is to maximize the Material removal rate (MRR). Central composite design data is used to develop second order polynomial models with interaction terms. The insignificant coefficients’ are eliminated with these models by using student t test and F test for the goodness of fit. CCD is first used to establish the determine the optimal factors of the electro-discharge machining (EDM) for maximizing the MRR. The responses are further treated through a objective function to establish the same set of key machining factors to satisfy the optimization problem of the electro-discharge machining (EDM) process. The results demonstrate the better performance of CCD data based RSM for optimizing the electro-discharge machining (EDM) process.

Keywords: electric discharge machining (EDM), modeling, optimization, CCRD

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Authors: Neil Fourati

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Collaboration between public and private stakeholders for agricultural development are today lacking in Tunisia. The last dictatorship witnessed by the country has deteriorated the necessary trust between the state and small farmers for the realization of development projects, in particular in the interior, disadvantaged regions of the country. These regions, where the youth unemployment rate is above 30%, have been the heart of the uprising that preceded the revolution. The transitional period that the country is going through since 2011 is an opportunity for the emergence of new governance systems in the context of the decentralization. The latter is recognized in the 2nd Tunisian Republic constitution as the basis of regional management. Civil society participation to the decision-making process is considered as a mean to identify measures that are more coherent with local populations’ needs. The development of agriculture and food value chains in rural areas is relevant within the framework of the implementation of new decisions systems that require public-private collaborations. These new systems can lead to actions in favor of improving living conditions of rural populations. The diverisification of activities around agriculture can be a solution for job creation and local value creation. The project for the promotion of sustainable agriculture and rural development in Tunisia has designed and implemented a multi-stakeholder dialogue process for the development of local value chains platforms in disadvantaged areas of the country. The platforms gather public and private organizations ; as well civil society organizations ; that intervene in a locality in relation to the production transformation or product’s commercialization. The role of these platforms is to formulate realize and evaluate collaborative actions or projects for the promotion of the concerned product and territory. The dialogue process steps allow to create the necessary collaboration conditions in order to promote viable collectivities, dynamic economies and healthy environments. Effectively, the dialogue process steps allow to identify the local leaders. These leaders recognize the development constraints and opportunities. They deal with key and gathering subjects around the collaborative projects or actions. They take common decisions in order to create effective coalitions for the implementation of common actions. The plateforms realize quick success so as to build trust. The project has supported the formulation of 22 collaborative projects. Seven priority collaborative projects have been realized. Each collaborative project includes 3 parts : the signature of the collaboration conventions between public and private organizations, investment in the relevant material in order to increase productivity and the quality of local and products and finally management and technical training in favour of producers’ organizations for the promotion of local products. The implementation of this process has enabled to enhance the capacities of collaboration between local actors : producers, traders, processors and support structures from public sector and civil society. It also allowed to improve the efficiency and relevance of actions and measures for agriculture and rural development programs. Thus, the process for the development of local value chain platform is a basis for sustainable development of agriculture.

Keywords: governance, public private collaboration, rural development, value chains

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Authors: Johannes Gantner, Michael Held, Matthias Fischer

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The refurbishment of the building stock in terms of energy supply and efficiency is one of the major challenges of the German turnaround in energy policy. As the building sector accounts for 40% of Germany’s total energy demand, additional insulation is key for energy efficient refurbished buildings. Nevertheless the energetic benefits often the environmental and economic performances of insulation materials are questioned. The methods Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as well as Life Cycle Costing (LCC) can form the standardized basis for answering this doubts and more and more become important for material producers due efforts such as Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) or Environmental Product Declarations (EPD). Due to increasing use of LCA and LCC information for decision support the robustness and resilience of the results become crucial especially for support of decision and policy makers. LCA and LCC results are based on respective models which depend on technical parameters like efficiencies, material and energy demand, product output, etc.. Nevertheless, the influence of parameter uncertainties on lifecycle results are usually not considered or just studied superficially. Anyhow the effect of parameter uncertainties cannot be neglected. Based on the example of an exterior wall the overall lifecycle results are varying by a magnitude of more than three. As a result simple best case worst case analyses used in practice are not sufficient. These analyses allow for a first rude view on the results but are not taking effects into account such as error propagation. Thereby LCA practitioners cannot provide further guidance for decision makers. Probabilistic analyses enable LCA practitioners to gain deeper understanding of the LCA and LCC results and provide a better decision support. Within this study, the environmental and economic impacts of an exterior wall system over its whole lifecycle are illustrated, and the effect of different uncertainty analysis on the interpretation in terms of resilience and robustness are shown. Hereby the approaches of error propagation and Monte Carlo Simulations are applied and combined with statistical methods in order to allow for a deeper understanding and interpretation. All in all this study emphasis the need for a deeper and more detailed probabilistic evaluation based on statistical methods. Just by this, misleading interpretations can be avoided, and the results can be used for resilient and robust decisions.

Keywords: uncertainty, life cycle assessment, life cycle costing, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Adel Edwar Waheeb Louka

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Purpose AI-driven solutions are at the forefront of many pathology and medical imaging methods. Using algorithms designed to better the experience of medical professionals within their respective fields, the efficiency and accuracy of diagnosis can improve. In particular, X-rays are a fast and relatively inexpensive test that can diagnose diseases. In recent years, X-rays have not been widely used to detect and diagnose COVID-19. The under use of Xrays is mainly due to the low diagnostic accuracy and confounding with pneumonia, another respiratory disease. However, research in this field has expressed a possibility that artificial neural networks can successfully diagnose COVID-19 with high accuracy. Models and Data The dataset used is the COVID-19 Radiography Database. This dataset includes images and masks of chest X-rays under the labels of COVID-19, normal, and pneumonia. The classification model developed uses an autoencoder and a pre-trained convolutional neural network (DenseNet201) to provide transfer learning to the model. The model then uses a deep neural network to finalize the feature extraction and predict the diagnosis for the input image. This model was trained on 4035 images and validated on 807 separate images from the ones used for training. The images used to train the classification model include an important feature: the pictures are cropped beforehand to eliminate distractions when training the model. The image segmentation model uses an improved U-Net architecture. This model is used to extract the lung mask from the chest X-ray image. The model is trained on 8577 images and validated on a validation split of 20%. These models are calculated using the external dataset for validation. The models’ accuracy, precision, recall, f1-score, IOU, and loss are calculated. Results The classification model achieved an accuracy of 97.65% and a loss of 0.1234 when differentiating COVID19-infected, pneumonia-infected, and normal lung X-rays. The segmentation model achieved an accuracy of 97.31% and an IOU of 0.928. Conclusion The models proposed can detect COVID-19, pneumonia, and normal lungs with high accuracy and derive the lung mask from a chest X-ray with similarly high accuracy. The hope is for these models to elevate the experience of medical professionals and provide insight into the future of the methods used.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, convolutional neural networks, deeplearning, image processing, machine learningSarapin, intraarticular, chronic knee pain, osteoarthritisFNS, trauma, hip, neck femur fracture, minimally invasive surgery

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Authors: Federico Garrido, Mostafa El Hayani, Ahmed Shams

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The exploration of the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in architecture is still embryonic, however, its latent capacity to change design disciplines is significant. 'Synthetic Classism' is a research project that questions the underlying aspects of classically organized architecture not just in aesthetic terms but also from a geometrical and morphological point of view, intending to generate new architectural information using historical examples as source material. The main aim of this paper is to explore the uses of artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms in architectural design while creating a coherent narrative to be contained within a design process. The purpose is twofold: on one hand, to develop and train machine learning algorithms to produce architectural information of small pavilions and on the other, to synthesize new information from previous architectural drawings. These algorithms intend to 'interpret' graphical information from each pavilion and then generate new information from it. The procedure, once these algorithms are trained, is the following: parting from a line profile, a synthetic 'front view' of a pavilion is generated, then using it as a source material, an isometric view is created from it, and finally, a top view is produced. Thanks to GAN algorithms, it is also possible to generate Front and Isometric views without any graphical input as well. The final intention of the research is to produce isometric views out of historical information, such as the pavilions from Sebastiano Serlio, James Gibbs, or John Soane. The idea is to create and interpret new information not just in terms of historical reconstruction but also to explore AI as a novel tool in the narrative of a creative design process. This research also challenges the idea of the role of algorithmic design associated with efficiency or fitness while embracing the possibility of a creative collaboration between artificial intelligence and a human designer. Hence the double feature of this research, both analytical and creative, first by synthesizing images based on a given dataset and then by generating new architectural information from historical references. We find that the possibility of creatively understand and manipulate historic (and synthetic) information will be a key feature in future innovative design processes. Finally, the main question that we propose is whether an AI could be used not just to create an original and innovative group of simple buildings but also to explore the possibility of fostering a novel architectural sensibility grounded on the specificities on the architectural dataset, either historic, human-made or synthetic.

Keywords: architecture, central pavilions, classicism, machine learning

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Authors: Ricardo Torcato, Helder Morais

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The manufacture of crystal glass parts is based on obtaining the rough geometry by blowing and/or injection, generally followed by a set of manual finishing operations using cutting and grinding tools. The forming techniques used do not allow the obtainment, with repeatability, of parts with complex shapes and the finishing operations use intensive specialized labor resulting in high cycle times and production costs. This work aims to explore the digital manufacture of crystal glass parts by investigating new subtractive techniques for the automated, flexible finishing of these parts. Finishing operations are essential to respond to customer demands in terms of crystal feel and shine. It is intended to investigate the applicability of different computerized finishing technologies, namely milling and grinding in a CNC machining center with or without ultrasonic assistance, to crystal processing. Research in the field of grinding hard and brittle materials, despite not being extensive, has increased in recent years, and scientific knowledge about the machinability of crystal glass is still very limited. However, it can be said that the unique properties of glass, such as high hardness and very low toughness, make any glass machining technology a very challenging process. This work will measure the performance improvement brought about by the use of ultrasound compared to conventional crystal grinding. This presentation is focused on the mechanical characterization and analysis of the cutting forces in CNC machining of superior crystal glass (Pb ≥ 30%). For the mechanical characterization, the Vickers hardness test provides an estimate of the material hardness (Hv) and the fracture toughness based on cracks that appear in the indentation. Mechanical impulse excitation test estimates the Young’s Modulus, shear modulus and Poisson ratio of the material. For the cutting forces, it a dynamometer was used to measure the forces in the face grinding process. The tests were made based on the Taguchi method to correlate the input parameters (feed rate, tool rotation speed and depth of cut) with the output parameters (surface roughness and cutting forces) to optimize the process (better roughness using the cutting forces that do not compromise the material structure and the tool life) using ANOVA. This study was conducted for conventional grinding and for the ultrasonic grinding process with the same cutting tools. It was possible to determine the optimum cutting parameters for minimum cutting forces and for minimum surface roughness in both grinding processes. Ultrasonic-assisted grinding provides a better surface roughness than conventional grinding.

Keywords: CNC machining, crystal glass, cutting forces, hardness

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Authors: Emmanuel Ophel Gilbert, Williams Speret

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The control for fluid flow behaviours of viscous fluids and heat transfer occurrences within heated mini-channel is considered. Heat transfer and flow characteristics of different viscous liquids, such as engine oil, automatic transmission fluid, one-half ethylene glycol, and deionized water were numerically analyzed. Some mathematical applications such as Fourier series and Laplace Z-Transforms were employed to ascertain the behaviour-wave like structure of these each viscous fluids. The steady, laminar flow and heat transfer equations are reckoned by the aid of numerical simulation technique. Further, this numerical simulation technique is endorsed by using the accessible practical values in comparison with the anticipated local thermal resistances. However, the roughness of this mini-channel that is one of the physical limitations was also predicted in this study. This affects the frictional factor. When an additive such as tetracycline was introduced in the fluid, the heat input was lowered, and this caused pro rata effect on the minor and major frictional losses, mostly at a very minute Reynolds number circa 60-80. At this ascertained lower value of Reynolds numbers, there exists decrease in the viscosity and minute frictional losses as a result of the temperature of these viscous liquids been increased. It is inferred that the three equations and models are identified which supported the numerical simulation via interpolation and integration of the variables extended to the walls of the mini-channel, yields the utmost reliance for engineering and technology calculations for turbulence impacting jets in the near imminent age. Out of reasoning with a true equation that could support this control for the fluid flow, Navier-stokes equations were found to tangential to this finding. Though, other physical factors with respect to these Navier-stokes equations are required to be checkmated to avoid uncertain turbulence of the fluid flow. This paradox is resolved within the framework of continuum mechanics using the classical slip condition and an iteration scheme via numerical simulation method that takes into account certain terms in the full Navier-Stokes equations. However, this resulted in dropping out in the approximation of certain assumptions. Concrete questions raised in the main body of the work are sightseen further in the appendices.

Keywords: frictional losses, heat transfer, laminar flow, mini-channel, number simulation, Reynolds number, turbulence, viscous fluids

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Authors: Harshan Tee Pee

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Climate elements include surface temperatures, rainfall patterns, humidity, type and amount of cloudiness, air pressure and wind speed and direction. Change in one element can have an impact on the regional climate. The scientific predictions indicate that global climate change will increase the number of extreme events, leading to more frequent natural hazards. Global warming is likely to intensify the risk of drought in certain parts and also leading to increased rainfall in some other parts. Drought is a slow advancing disaster and creeping phenomenon– which accumulate slowly over a long period of time. Droughts are naturally linked with aridity. But droughts occur over most parts of the world (both wet and humid regions) and create severe impacts on agriculture, basic household welfare and ecosystems. Drought condition occurs at least every three years in India. India is one among the most vulnerable drought prone countries in the world. The economic impacts resulting from extreme environmental events and disasters are huge as a result of disruption in many economic activities. The focus of this paper is to develop a comprehensive understanding about the distributional impacts of disaster, especially impact of drought on agricultural production and income through a panel study (drought year and one year after the drought) in Raikhel village, Maharashtra, India. The major findings of the study indicate that cultivating area as well as the number of cultivating households reduced after the drought, indicating a shift in the livelihood- households moved from agriculture to non-agriculture. Decline in the gross cropped area and production of various crops depended on the negative income from these crops in the previous agriculture season. All the landholding categories of households except landlords had negative income in the drought year and also the income disparities between the households were higher in that year. In the drought year, the cost of cultivation was higher for all the landholding categories due to the increased cost for irrigation and input cost. In the drought year, agriculture products (50 per cent of the total products) were used for household consumption rather than selling in the market. It is evident from the study that livelihood which was based on natural resources became less attractive to the people to due to the risk involved in it and people were moving to less risk livelihood for their sustenance.

Keywords: climate change, drought, agriculture economics, disaster impact

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Authors: Eashan Hatti

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In software development, programmers often must make a choice between high-level programming and high-performance programs. High-level programming encourages the use of complex, pervasive abstractions. However, the use of these abstractions degrades performance-high performance demands that programs be low-level. In a compiler, the optimizer attempts to let the user have both. The optimizer takes high-level, abstract code as an input and produces low-level, performant code as an output. However, there is a problem with having the optimizer be a built-in part of the compiler. Domain-specific abstractions implemented as libraries are common in high-level languages. As a language’s library ecosystem grows, so does the number of abstractions that programmers will use. If these abstractions are to be performant, the optimizer must be extended with new optimizations to target them, or these abstractions must rely on existing general-purpose optimizations. The latter is often not as effective as needed. The former presents too significant of an effort for the compiler developers, as they are the only ones who can extend the language with new optimizations. Thus, the language becomes more high-level, yet the optimizer – and, in turn, program performance – falls behind. Programmers are again confronted with a choice between high-level programming and high-performance programs. To investigate a potential solution to this problem, we developed Peridot, a prototype programming language. Peridot’s main contribution is that it enables library developers to easily extend the language with new optimizations themselves. This allows the optimization workload to be taken off the compiler developers’ hands and given to a much larger set of people who can specialize in each problem domain. Because of this, optimizations can be much more effective while also being much more numerous. To enable this, Peridot supports metaprogramming designed for implementing program transformations. The language is split into two fragments or “levels”, one for metaprogramming, the other for high-level general-purpose programming. The metaprogramming level supports logic programming. Peridot’s key idea is that optimizations are simply implemented as metaprograms. The meta level supports several specific features which make it particularly suited to implementing optimizers. For instance, metaprograms can automatically deduce equalities between the programs they are optimizing via unification, deal with variable binding declaratively via higher-order abstract syntax, and avoid the phase-ordering problem via non-determinism. We have found that this design centered around logic programming makes optimizers concise and easy to write compared to their equivalents in functional or imperative languages. Overall, implementing Peridot has shown that its design is a viable solution to the problem of writing code which is both high-level and performant.

Keywords: optimization, metaprogramming, logic programming, abstraction

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Authors: Leigh Ann Wilson, Melanie Borrego

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The purpose of institutional learning outcomes (ILOs) is to assess what students across the university know and what they do not. The issue is gathering this information in a systematic and usable way. This presentation will explain how one institution has engineered this process for both student success and maximum faculty curriculum and course design input. At Brandman University, there are three levels of learning outcomes: course, program, and institutional. Institutional Learning Outcomes (ILOs) are mapped to specific courses. Faculty course developers write the signature assignments (SAs) in alignment with the Institutional Learning Outcomes for each course. These SAs use a specific rubric that is applied consistently by every section and every instructor. Each year, the 12-member General Education Team (GET), as a part of their work, conducts the calibration and assessment of the university-wide SAs and the related rubrics for one or two of the five ILOs. GET members, who are senior faculty and administrators who represent each of the university's schools, lead the calibration meetings. Specifically, calibration is a process designed to ensure the accuracy and reliability of evaluating signature assignments by working with peer faculty to interpret rubrics and compare scoring. These calibration meetings include the full time and adjunct faculty members who teach the course to ensure consensus on the application of the rubric. Each calibration session is chaired by a GET representative as well as the course custodian/contact where the ILO signature assignment resides. The overall calibration process GET follows includes multiple steps, such as: contacting and inviting relevant faculty members to participate; organizing and hosting calibration sessions; and reviewing and discussing at least 10 samples of student work from class sections during the previous academic year, for each applicable signature assignment. Conversely, the commitment for calibration teams consist of attending two virtual meetings lasting up to three hours in duration. The first meeting focuses on interpreting the rubric, and the second meeting involves comparing scores for sample work and sharing feedback about the rubric and assignment. Next, participants are expected to follow all directions provided and participate actively, and respond to scheduling requests and other emails within 72 hours. The virtual meetings are recorded for future institutional use. Adjunct faculty are paid a small stipend after participating in both calibration meetings. Full time faculty can use this work on their annual faculty report for "internal service" credit.

Keywords: assessment, assurance of learning, course design, institutional learning outcomes, rubrics, signature assignments

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Authors: P. Mounnarath, U. Schmitz, Ch. Zhang

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Fragility analysis is an effective tool for the seismic vulnerability assessment of civil structures in the last several years. The design of the expansion joints according to various bridge design codes is almost inconsistent, and only a few studies have focused on this problem so far. In this study, the influence of the expansion joint clearances between the girder ends and the abutment backwalls on the seismic fragility assessment of continuous integral bridge frames is investigated. The gaps (ranging from 60 mm, 150 mm, 250 mm and 350 mm) are designed by following two different bridge design code specifications, namely, Caltrans and Eurocode 8-2. Five bridge models are analyzed and compared. The first bridge model serves as a reference. This model uses three-dimensional reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements with simplified supports at both ends of the girder. The other four models also employ reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements but include the abutment backfill stiffness and four different gap values. The nonlinear time history analysis is performed. The artificial ground motion sets, which have the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) ranging from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with an increment of 0.05 g, are taken as input. The soil-structure interaction and the P-Δ effects are also included in the analysis. The component fragility curves in terms of the curvature ductility demand to the capacity ratio of the piers and the displacement demand to the capacity ratio of the abutment sliding bearings are established and compared. The system fragility curves are then obtained by combining the component fragility curves. Our results show that in the component fragility analysis, the reference bridge model exhibits a severe vulnerability compared to that of other sophisticated bridge models for all damage states. In the system fragility analysis, the reference curves illustrate a smaller damage probability in the earlier PGA ranges for the first three damage states, they then show a higher fragility compared to other curves in the larger PGA levels. In the fourth damage state, the reference curve has the smallest vulnerability. In both the component and the system fragility analysis, the same trend is found that the bridge models with smaller clearances exhibit a smaller fragility compared to that with larger openings. However, the bridge model with a maximum clearance still induces a minimum pounding force effect.

Keywords: expansion joint clearance, fiber beam-column element, fragility assessment, time history analysis

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Authors: Eduardas Spiriajevas

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Since the end of the 20th century, when Lithuania regained its independence, a process of demographic shrinkage started. Recently, it affects the efficiency of implementation of actions related to regional development policy and geographic scopes of created value added in the regions. The demographic structures of human resources reflect onto the regions and their economic geographic environment. Due to reshaping economies and state reforms on restructuration of economic branches such as agriculture and industry, it affects the economic significance of services’ sector. These processes influence the competitiveness of labor market and its demographic characteristics. Such vivid consequences are appropriate for the structures of human migrations, which affected the processes of demographic ageing of human resources in the regions, especially in peripheral ones. These phenomena of modern times induce the demographic shrinkage of society and its economic geographic characteristics in the actions of regional development and in regional policy. The internal and external migrations of population captured numerous regional economic disparities, and influenced on territorial density and concentration of population of the country and created the economies of spatial unevenness in such small geographically compact country as Lithuania. The processes of territorial reshaping of distribution of population create new regions and their economic environment, which is not corresponding to the main principles of regional policy and its power to create the well-being and to promote the attractiveness for economic development. These are the new challenges of national regional policy and it should be researched in a systematic way of taking into consideration the analytical approaches of regional economy in the context of economic geographic research methods. A comparative territorial analysis according to administrative division of Lithuania in relation to retrospective approach and introduction of method of location quotients, both give the results of economic geographic character with cartographic representations using the tools of spatial analysis provided by technologies of Geographic Information Systems. A set of these research methods provide the new spatially evidenced based results, which must be taken into consideration in reshaping of national regional policy in economic geographic context. Due to demographic shrinkage and increasing differentiation of economic developments within the regions, an input of economic geographic dimension is inevitable. In order to sustain territorial balanced economic development, there is a need to strengthen the roles of regional centers (towns) and to empower them with new economic functionalities for revitalization of peripheral regions, and to increase their economic competitiveness and social capacities on national scale.

Keywords: demographic shrinkage, economic geography, Lithuania, regions

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Authors: Arindam Chaudhuri

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Classification of data has been actively used for most effective and efficient means of conveying knowledge and information to users. The prima face has always been upon techniques for extracting useful knowledge from data such that returns are maximized. With emergence of huge datasets the existing classification techniques often fail to produce desirable results. The challenge lies in analyzing and understanding characteristics of massive data sets by retrieving useful geometric and statistical patterns. We propose a supervised parallel fuzzy rough support vector machine (PFRSVM) for data classification in cloud environment. The classification is performed by PFRSVM using hyperbolic tangent kernel. The fuzzy rough set model takes care of sensitiveness of noisy samples and handles impreciseness in training samples bringing robustness to results. The membership function is function of center and radius of each class in feature space and is represented with kernel. It plays an important role towards sampling the decision surface. The success of PFRSVM is governed by choosing appropriate parameter values. The training samples are either linear or nonlinear separable. The different input points make unique contributions to decision surface. The algorithm is parallelized with a view to reduce training times. The system is built on support vector machine library using Hadoop implementation of MapReduce. The algorithm is tested on large data sets to check its feasibility and convergence. The performance of classifier is also assessed in terms of number of support vectors. The challenges encountered towards implementing big data classification in machine learning frameworks are also discussed. The experiments are done on the cloud environment available at University of Technology and Management, India. The results are illustrated for Gaussian RBF and Bayesian kernels. The effect of variability in prediction and generalization of PFRSVM is examined with respect to values of parameter C. It effectively resolves outliers’ effects, imbalance and overlapping class problems, normalizes to unseen data and relaxes dependency between features and labels. The average classification accuracy for PFRSVM is better than other classifiers for both Gaussian RBF and Bayesian kernels. The experimental results on both synthetic and real data sets clearly demonstrate the superiority of the proposed technique.

Keywords: FRSVM, Hadoop, MapReduce, PFRSVM

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