Search results for: probability theorem
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1361

Search results for: probability theorem

1091 Subclass of Close-To-Convex Harmonic Mappings

Authors: Jugal K. Prajapat, Manivannan M.

Abstract:

In this article we have studied a class of sense preserving harmonic mappings in the unit disk D. Let B⁰H (α, β) denote the class of sense-preserving harmonic mappings f=h+g ̅ in the open unit disk D and satisfying the condition |z h״(z)+α (h׳(z)-1) | ≤ β - |z g″(z)+α g′(z)| (α > -1, β > 0). We have proved that B⁰H (α, β) is close-to-convex in D. We also prove that the functions in B⁰H (α, β) are stable harmonic univalent, stable harmonic starlike and stable harmonic convex in D for different values of its parameters. Further, the coefficient estimates, growth results, area theorem, boundary behavior, convolution and convex combination properties of the class B⁰H (α, β) of harmonic mapping are obtained.

Keywords: analytic, univalent, starlike, convex and close-to-convex

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1090 Constructing the Joint Mean-Variance Regions for Univariate and Bivariate Normal Distributions: Approach Based on the Measure of Cumulative Distribution Functions

Authors: Valerii Dashuk

Abstract:

The usage of the confidence intervals in economics and econometrics is widespread. To be able to investigate a random variable more thoroughly, joint tests are applied. One of such examples is joint mean-variance test. A new approach for testing such hypotheses and constructing confidence sets is introduced. Exploring both the value of the random variable and its deviation with the help of this technique allows checking simultaneously the shift and the probability of that shift (i.e., portfolio risks). Another application is based on the normal distribution, which is fully defined by mean and variance, therefore could be tested using the introduced approach. This method is based on the difference of probability density functions. The starting point is two sets of normal distribution parameters that should be compared (whether they may be considered as identical with given significance level). Then the absolute difference in probabilities at each 'point' of the domain of these distributions is calculated. This measure is transformed to a function of cumulative distribution functions and compared to the critical values. Critical values table was designed from the simulations. The approach was compared with the other techniques for the univariate case. It differs qualitatively and quantitatively in easiness of implementation, computation speed, accuracy of the critical region (theoretical vs. real significance level). Stable results when working with outliers and non-normal distributions, as well as scaling possibilities, are also strong sides of the method. The main advantage of this approach is the possibility to extend it to infinite-dimension case, which was not possible in the most of the previous works. At the moment expansion to 2-dimensional state is done and it allows to test jointly up to 5 parameters. Therefore the derived technique is equivalent to classic tests in standard situations but gives more efficient alternatives in nonstandard problems and on big amounts of data.

Keywords: confidence set, cumulative distribution function, hypotheses testing, normal distribution, probability density function

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1089 Ant Colony Optimization Control for Multilevel STATCOM

Authors: H. Tédjini, Y. Meslem, B. Guesbaoui, A. Safa

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Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS) are potentially becoming more flexible and more economical local controllers in the power system; and because of the high MVA ratings, it would be expensive to provide independent, equal, regulated DC voltage sources to power the multilevel converters which are presently proposed for STATCOMs. DC voltage sources can be derived from the DC link capacitances which are charged by the rectified ac power. In this paper a new stronger control combined of nonlinear control based Lyapunov’s theorem and Ant Colony Algorithm (ACA) to maintain stability of multilevel STATCOM and the utility.

Keywords: Static Compensator (STATCOM), ant colony optimization (ACO), lyapunov control theory, Decoupled power control, neutral point clamped (NPC)

Procedia PDF Downloads 547
1088 Organizational Innovations of the 20th Century as High Tech of the 21st: Evidence from Patent Data

Authors: Valery Yakubovich, Shuping wu

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Organization theorists have long claimed that organizational innovations are nontechnological, in part because they are unpatentable. The claim rests on the assumption that organizational innovations are abstract ideas embodied in persons and contexts rather than in context-free practical tools. However, over the last three decades, organizational knowledge has been increasingly embodied in digital tools which, in principle, can be patented. To provide the first empirical evidence regarding the patentability of organizational innovations, we trained two machine learning algorithms to identify a population of 205,434 patent applications for organizational technologies (OrgTech) and, among them, 141,285 applications that use organizational innovations accumulated over the 20th century. Our event history analysis of the probability of patenting an OrgTech invention shows that ideas from organizational innovations decrease the probability of patent allowance unless they describe a practical tool. We conclude that the present-day digital transformation places organizational innovations in the realm of high tech and turns the debate about organizational technologies into the challenge of designing practical organizational tools that embody big ideas about organizing. We outline an agenda for patent-based research on OrgTech as an emerging phenomenon.

Keywords: organizational innovation, organizational technology, high tech, patents, machine learning

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1087 Basis Theorem of Equivalence of Explicit-Type Iterations for the Class of Multivalued Phi-Quasi-Contrative Maps in Modular Function Spaces

Authors: Hudson Akewe

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We prove that the convergence of explicit Mann, explicit Ishikawa, explicit Noor, explicit SP, explicit multistep and explicit multistep-SP fixed point iterative procedures are equivalent for the classes of multi-valued phi-contraction, phi-Zamfirescu and phi-quasi-contractive mappings in the framework of modular function spaces. Our results complement equivalence results on normed and metric spaces in the literature as they elegantly cut out the triangle inequality.

Keywords: multistep iterative procedures, multivalued mappings, equivalence results, fixed point

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1086 Determinants of Income Diversification among Support Zone Communities of National Parks in Nigeria

Authors: Daniel Etim Jacob, Samuel Onadeko, Edem A. Eniang, Imaobong Ufot Nelson

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This paper examined determinants of income diversification among households in support zones communities of national parks in Nigeria. This involved the use household data collected through questionnaires administered randomly among 1009 household heads in the study area. The data obtained were analyzed using probability and non-probability statistical analysis such as regression and analysis of variance to test for mean difference between parks. The result obtained indicates that majority of the household heads were male (92.57%0, between the age class of 21 – 40 years (44.90%), had non-formal education (38.16%), were farmers (65.21%), owned land (95.44%), with a household size of 1 – 5 (36.67%) and an annual income range of ₦401,000 - ₦600,000 (24.58%). Mean Simpson index of diversity showed a general low (0.375) level of income diversification among the households. Income, age, off-farm dependence, education, household size and occupation where significant (p<0.01) factors that affected households’ income diversification. The study recommends improvement in the existing infrastructures and social capital in the communities as avenues to improve the livelihood and ensure positive conservation behaviors in the study area.

Keywords: income diversification, protected area, livelihood, poverty, Nigeria

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1085 Off-Line Text-Independent Arabic Writer Identification Using Optimum Codebooks

Authors: Ahmed Abdullah Ahmed

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The task of recognizing the writer of a handwritten text has been an attractive research problem in the document analysis and recognition community with applications in handwriting forensics, paleography, document examination and handwriting recognition. This research presents an automatic method for writer recognition from digitized images of unconstrained writings. Although a great effort has been made by previous studies to come out with various methods, their performances, especially in terms of accuracy, are fallen short, and room for improvements is still wide open. The proposed technique employs optimal codebook based writer characterization where each writing sample is represented by a set of features computed from two codebooks, beginning and ending. Unlike most of the classical codebook based approaches which segment the writing into graphemes, this study is based on fragmenting a particular area of writing which are beginning and ending strokes. The proposed method starting with contour detection to extract significant information from the handwriting and the curve fragmentation is then employed to categorize the handwriting into Beginning and Ending zones into small fragments. The similar fragments of beginning strokes are grouped together to create Beginning cluster, and similarly, the ending strokes are grouped to create the ending cluster. These two clusters lead to the development of two codebooks (beginning and ending) by choosing the center of every similar fragments group. Writings under study are then represented by computing the probability of occurrence of codebook patterns. The probability distribution is used to characterize each writer. Two writings are then compared by computing distances between their respective probability distribution. The evaluations carried out on ICFHR standard dataset of 206 writers using Beginning and Ending codebooks separately. Finally, the Ending codebook achieved the highest identification rate of 98.23%, which is the best result so far on ICFHR dataset.

Keywords: off-line text-independent writer identification, feature extraction, codebook, fragments

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1084 Weak Solutions Of Stochastic Fractional Differential Equations

Authors: Lev Idels, Arcady Ponosov

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Stochastic fractional differential equations have recently attracted considerable attention, as they have been used to model real-world processes, which are subject to natural memory effects and measurement uncertainties. Compared to conventional hereditary differential equations, one of the advantages of fractional differential equations is related to more realistic geometric properties of their trajectories that do not intersect in the phase space. In this report, a Peano-like existence theorem for nonlinear stochastic fractional differential equations is proven under very general hypotheses. Several specific classes of equations are checked to satisfy these hypotheses, including delay equations driven by the fractional Brownian motion, stochastic fractional neutral equations and many others.

Keywords: delay equations, operator methods, stochastic noise, weak solutions

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1083 Real-World Comparison of Adherence to and Persistence with Dulaglutide and Liraglutide in UAE e-Claims Database

Authors: Ibrahim Turfanda, Soniya Rai, Karan Vadher

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Objectives— The study aims to compare real-world adherence to and persistence with dulaglutide and liraglutide in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) initiating treatment in UAE. Methods— This was a retrospective, non-interventional study (observation period: 01 March 2017–31 August 2019) using the UAE Dubai e-Claims database. Included: adult patients initiating dulaglutide/liraglutide 01 September 2017–31 August 2018 (index period) with: ≥1 claim for T2D in the 6 months before index date (ID); ≥1 claim for dulaglutide/liraglutide during index period; and continuous medical enrolment for ≥6 months before and ≥12 months after ID. Key endpoints, assessed 3/6/12 months after ID: adherence to treatment (proportion of days covered [PDC; PDC ≥80% considered ‘adherent’], per-group mean±standard deviation [SD] PDC); and persistence (number of continuous therapy days from ID until discontinuation [i.e., >45 days gap] or end of observation period). Patients initiating dulaglutide/liraglutide were propensity score matched (1:1) based on baseline characteristics. Between-group comparison of adherence was analysed using the McNemar test (α=0.025). Persistence was analysed using Kaplan–Meier estimates with log-rank tests (α=0.025) for between-group comparisons. This study presents 12-month outcomes. Results— Following propensity score matching, 263 patients were included in each group. Mean±SD PDC for all patients at 12 months was significantly higher in the dulaglutide versus the liraglutide group (dulaglutide=0.48±0.30, liraglutide=0.39±0.28, p=0.0002). The proportion of adherent patients favored dulaglutide (dulaglutide=20.2%, liraglutide=12.9%, p=0.0302), as did the probability of being adherent to treatment (odds ratio [97.5% CI]: 1.70 [0.99, 2.91]; p=0.03). Proportion of persistent patients also favoured dulaglutide (dulaglutide=15.2%, liraglutide=9.1%, p=0.0528), as did the probability of discontinuing treatment 12 months after ID (p=0.027). Conclusions— Based on the UAE Dubai e-Claims database data, dulaglutide initiators exhibited significantly greater adherence in terms of mean PDC versus liraglutide initiators. The proportion of adherent patients and the probability of being adherent favored the dulaglutide group, as did treatment persistence.

Keywords: adherence, dulaglutide, effectiveness, liraglutide, persistence

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1082 On the Inequality between Queue Length and Virtual Waiting Time in Open Queueing Networks under Conditions of Heavy Traffic

Authors: Saulius Minkevicius, Edvinas Greicius

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The paper is devoted to the analysis of queueing systems in the context of the network and communications theory. We investigate the inequality in an open queueing network and its applications to the theorems in heavy traffic conditions (fluid approximation, functional limit theorem, and law of the iterated logarithm) for a queue of customers in an open queueing network.

Keywords: fluid approximation, heavy traffic, models of information systems, open queueing network, queue length of customers, queueing theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 278
1081 Modal Approach for Decoupling Damage Cost Dependencies in Building Stories

Authors: Haj Najafi Leila, Tehranizadeh Mohsen

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Dependencies between diverse factors involved in probabilistic seismic loss evaluation are recognized to be an imperative issue in acquiring accurate loss estimates. Dependencies among component damage costs could be taken into account considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly-dependent for component damage states; however, in our best knowledge, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a method called "modal cost superposition method" for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved in complex system considering all stories' cost equations by the means of the introduced "substituted matrixes of mass and stiffness". Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To supplement the proposed procedure and also to display straightforwardness of its application, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building; however, in story level, insufficiency of employing modification factor for incorporating occurrence probability dependencies between stories has been revealed due to discrepant amounts of dependency between damage costs of different stories. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones, whereas reduction in incorporation portion of cost modes provides acceptable level of accuracy and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.

Keywords: dependency, story-cost, cost modes, engineering demand parameter

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1080 A Theoretical Approach on Electoral Competition, Lobby Formation and Equilibrium Policy Platforms

Authors: Deepti Kohli, Meeta Keswani Mehra

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The paper develops a theoretical model of electoral competition with purely opportunistic candidates and a uni-dimensional policy using the probability voting approach while focusing on the aspect of lobby formation to analyze the inherent complex interactions between centripetal and centrifugal forces and their effects on equilibrium policy platforms. There exist three types of agents, namely, Left-wing, Moderate and Right-wing who comprise of the total voting population. Also, it is assumed that the Left and Right agents are free to initiate a lobby of their choice. If initiated, these lobbies generate donations which in turn can be contributed to one (or both) electoral candidates in order to influence them to implement the lobby’s preferred policy. Four different lobby formation scenarios have been considered: no lobby formation, only Left, only Right and both Left and Right. The equilibrium policy platforms, amount of individual donations by agents to their respective lobbies and the contributions offered to the electoral candidates have been solved for under each of the above four cases. Since it is assumed that the agents cannot coordinate each other’s actions during the lobby formation stage, there exists a probability with which a lobby would be formed, which is also solved for in the model. The results indicate that the policy platforms of the two electoral candidates converge completely under the cases of no lobby and both (extreme) formations but diverge under the cases of only one (Left or Right) lobby formation. This is because in the case of no lobby being formed, only the centripetal forces (emerging from the election-winning aspect) are present while in the case of both extreme (Left-wing and Right-wing) lobbies being formed, centrifugal forces (emerging from the lobby formation aspect) also arise but cancel each other out, again resulting in a pure policy convergence phenomenon. In contrast, in case of only one lobby being formed, both centripetal and centrifugal forces interact strategically, leading the two electoral candidates to choose completely different policy platforms in equilibrium. Additionally, it is found that in equilibrium, while the donation by a specific agent type increases with the formation of both lobbies in comparison to when only one lobby is formed, the probability of implementation of the policy being advocated by that lobby group falls.

Keywords: electoral competition, equilibrium policy platforms, lobby formation, opportunistic candidates

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1079 Reliability Analysis of Glass Epoxy Composite Plate under Low Velocity

Authors: Shivdayal Patel, Suhail Ahmad

Abstract:

Safety assurance and failure prediction of composite material component of an offshore structure due to low velocity impact is essential for associated risk assessment. It is important to incorporate uncertainties associated with material properties and load due to an impact. Likelihood of this hazard causing a chain of failure events plays an important role in risk assessment. The material properties of composites mostly exhibit a scatter due to their in-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, brittleness of the matrix and fiber and manufacturing defects. In fact, the probability of occurrence of such a scenario is due to large uncertainties arising in the system. Probabilistic finite element analysis of composite plates due to low-velocity impact is carried out considering uncertainties of material properties and initial impact velocity. Impact-induced damage of composite plate is a probabilistic phenomenon due to a wide range of uncertainties arising in material and loading behavior. A typical failure crack initiates and propagates further into the interface causing de-lamination between dissimilar plies. Since individual crack in the ply is difficult to track. The progressive damage model is implemented in the FE code by a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) to overcome these problems. The limit state function is accordingly established while the stresses in the lamina are such that the limit state function (g(x)>0). The Gaussian process response surface method is presently adopted to determine the probability of failure. A comparative study is also carried out for different combination of impactor masses and velocities. The sensitivity based probabilistic design optimization procedure is investigated to achieve better strength and lighter weight of composite structures. Chain of failure events due to different modes of failure is considered to estimate the consequences of failure scenario. Frequencies of occurrence of specific impact hazards yield the expected risk due to economic loss.

Keywords: composites, damage propagation, low velocity impact, probability of failure, uncertainty modeling

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1078 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models

Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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1077 Response Solutions of 2-Dimensional Elliptic Degenerate Quasi-Periodic Systems With Small Parameters

Authors: Song Ni, Junxiang Xu

Abstract:

This paper concerns quasi-periodic perturbations with parameters of 2-dimensional degenerate systems. If the equilibrium point of the unperturbed system is elliptic-type degenerate. Assume that the perturbation is real analytic quasi-periodic with diophantine frequency. Without imposing any assumption on the perturbation, we can use a path of equilibrium points to tackle with the Melnikov non-resonance condition, then by the Leray-Schauder Continuation Theorem and the Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser technique, it is proved that the equation has a small response solution for many sufficiently small parameters.

Keywords: quasi-periodic systems, KAM-iteration, degenerate equilibrium point, response solution

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1076 Science behind Quantum Teleportation

Authors: Ananya G., B. Varshitha, Shwetha S., Kavitha S. N., Praveen Kumar Gupta

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Teleportation is the ability to travel by just reappearing at some other spot. Though teleportation has never been achieved, quantum teleportation is possible. Quantum teleportation is a process of transferring the quantum state of a particle onto another particle, under the circumstance that one does not get to know any information about the state in the process of transformation. This paper presents a brief overview of quantum teleportation, discussing the topics like Entanglement, EPR Paradox, Bell's Theorem, Qubits, elements for a successful teleport, some examples of advanced teleportation systems (also covers few ongoing experiments), applications (that includes quantum cryptography), and the current hurdles for future scientists interested in this field. Finally, major advantages and limitations to the existing teleportation theory are discussed.

Keywords: teleportation, quantum teleportation, quantum entanglement, qubits, EPR paradox, bell states, quantum particles, spooky action at a distance

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1075 Exploring the Activity Fabric of an Intelligent Environment with Hierarchical Hidden Markov Theory

Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

Abstract:

The Internet of Things (IoT) was designed for widespread convenience. With the smart tag and the sensing network, a large quantity of dynamic information is immediately presented in the IoT. Through the internal communication and interaction, meaningful objects provide real-time services for users. Therefore, the service with appropriate decision-making has become an essential issue. Based on the science of human behavior, this study employed the environment model to record the time sequences and locations of different behaviors and adopted the probability module of the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model for the inference. The statistical analysis was conducted to achieve the following objectives: First, define user behaviors and predict the user behavior routes with the environment model to analyze user purposes. Second, construct the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model according to the logic framework, and establish the sequential intensity among behaviors to get acquainted with the use and activity fabric of the intelligent environment. Third, establish the intensity of the relation between the probability of objects’ being used and the objects. The indicator can describe the possible limitations of the mechanism. As the process is recorded in the information of the system created in this study, these data can be reused to adjust the procedure of intelligent design services.

Keywords: behavior, big data, hierarchical hidden Markov model, intelligent object

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1074 Risk Assessment of Flood Defences by Utilising Condition Grade Based Probabilistic Approach

Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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1073 Numerical Analysis of a Reaction Diffusion System of Lambda-Omega Type

Authors: Hassan J. Al Salman, Ahmed A. Al Ghafli

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In this study, we consider a nonlinear in time finite element approximation of a reaction diffusion system of lambda-omega type. We use a fixed-point theorem to prove existence of the approximations at each time level. Then, we derive some essential stability estimates and discuss the uniqueness of the approximations. In addition, we employ Nochetto mathematical framework to prove an optimal error bound in time for d= 1, 2 and 3 space dimensions. Finally, we present some numerical experiments to verify the obtained theoretical results.

Keywords: reaction diffusion system, finite element approximation, stability estimates, error bound

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1072 Disaggregation the Daily Rainfall Dataset into Sub-Daily Resolution in the Temperate Oceanic Climate Region

Authors: Mohammad Bakhshi, Firas Al Janabi

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High resolution rain data are very important to fulfill the input of hydrological models. Among models of high-resolution rainfall data generation, the temporal disaggregation was chosen for this study. The paper attempts to generate three different rainfall resolutions (4-hourly, hourly and 10-minutes) from daily for around 20-year record period. The process was done by DiMoN tool which is based on random cascade model and method of fragment. Differences between observed and simulated rain dataset are evaluated with variety of statistical and empirical methods: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), usual statistics, and Exceedance probability. The tool worked well at preserving the daily rainfall values in wet days, however, the generated data are cumulated in a shorter time period and made stronger storms. It is demonstrated that the difference between generated and observed cumulative distribution function curve of 4-hourly datasets is passed the K-S test criteria while in hourly and 10-minutes datasets the P-value should be employed to prove that their differences were reasonable. The results are encouraging considering the overestimation of generated high-resolution rainfall data.

Keywords: DiMoN Tool, disaggregation, exceedance probability, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, rainfall

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1071 An Insite to the Probabilistic Assessment of Reserves in Conventional Reservoirs

Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

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The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

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1070 Assortative Education and Working Arrangement among Married Couples in Indonesia

Authors: Ratu Khabiba, Qisha Quarina

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This study aims to analyse the effect of married couples’ assortative educational attainments on the division of economic activities among themselves in the household. This study contributes to the literature on women’s participation in employment, especially among married women, to see whether the traditional values about gender roles in the household still continue to shape the employment participation among married women in Indonesia, despite increasing women’s human capital through education. This study utilizes the Indonesian National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS) 2016 and estimates the results using the multinomial logit model. Our results show that compared to high-educated educational homogamy couples, educational heterogamy couples, especially hypergamy, have a higher probability of being a single-worker type. Moreover, the high-educated educational homogamy couples have the highest probability of being a dual-worker type. Thus, we found evidence that the traditional values of gender role segregation seem to still play a significant role in married women’s employment decision in Indonesia, particularly for couples’ with educational heterogamy and low-educated educational homogamy couples.

Keywords: assortative education, dual-worker, hypergamy, homogamy, traditional values, women labor participation

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1069 A Hybrid Based Algorithm to Solve the Multi-objective Minimum Spanning Tree Problem

Authors: Boumesbah Asma, Chergui Mohamed El-amine

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Since it has been shown that the multi-objective minimum spanning tree problem (MOST) is NP-hard even with two criteria, we propose in this study a hybrid NSGA-II algorithm with an exact mutation operator, which is only used with low probability, to find an approximation to the Pareto front of the problem. In a connected graph G, a spanning tree T of G being a connected and cycle-free graph, if k edges of G\T are added to T, we obtain a partial graph H of G inducing a reduced size multi-objective spanning tree problem compared to the initial one. With a weak probability for the mutation operator, an exact method for solving the reduced MOST problem considering the graph H is then used to give birth to several mutated solutions from a spanning tree T. Then, the selection operator of NSGA-II is activated to obtain the Pareto front approximation. Finally, an adaptation of the VNS metaheuristic is called for further improvements on this front. It allows finding good individuals to counterbalance the diversification and the intensification during the optimization search process. Experimental comparison studies with an exact method show promising results and indicate that the proposed algorithm is efficient.

Keywords: minimum spanning tree, multiple objective linear optimization, combinatorial optimization, non-sorting genetic algorithm, variable neighborhood search

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1068 A Proof of the Fact that a Finite Morphism is Proper

Authors: Ying Yi Wu

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In this paper, we present a proof of the fact that a finite morphism is proper. We show that a finite morphism is universally closed and of finite type, which are the conditions for properness. Our proof is based on the theory of schemes and involves the use of the projection formula and the base change theorem. We first show that a finite morphism is of finite type and then proceed to show that it is universally closed. We use the fact that a finite morphism is also an affine morphism, which allows us to use the theory of coherent sheaves and their modules. We then show that the map induced by a finite morphism is flat and that the module it induces is of finite type. We use these facts to show that a finite morphism is universally closed. Our proof is constructive, and we provide details for each step of the argument.

Keywords: finite, morphism, schemes, projection.

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1067 Energy Detection Based Sensing and Primary User Traffic Classification for Cognitive Radio

Authors: Urvee B. Trivedi, U. D. Dalal

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As wireless communication services grow quickly; the seriousness of spectrum utilization has been on the rise gradually. An emerging technology, cognitive radio has come out to solve today’s spectrum scarcity problem. To support the spectrum reuse functionality, secondary users are required to sense the radio frequency environment, and once the primary users are found to be active, the secondary users are required to vacate the channel within a certain amount of time. Therefore, spectrum sensing is of significant importance. Once sensing is done, different prediction rules apply to classify the traffic pattern of primary user. Primary user follows two types of traffic patterns: periodic and stochastic ON-OFF patterns. A cognitive radio can learn the patterns in different channels over time. Two types of classification methods are discussed in this paper, by considering edge detection and by using autocorrelation function. Edge detection method has a high accuracy but it cannot tolerate sensing errors. Autocorrelation-based classification is applicable in the real environment as it can tolerate some amount of sensing errors.

Keywords: cognitive radio (CR), probability of detection (PD), probability of false alarm (PF), primary user (PU), secondary user (SU), fast Fourier transform (FFT), signal to noise ratio (SNR)

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1066 Occupational Diseases in the Automotive Industry in Czechia

Authors: J. Jarolímek, P. Urban, P. Pavlínek, D. Dzúrová

Abstract:

The industry constitutes a dominant economic sector in Czechia. The automotive industry represents the most important industrial sector in terms of gross value added and the number of employees. The objective of this study was to analyse the occurrence of occupational diseases (OD) in the automotive industry in Czechia during the 2001-2014 period. Whereas the occurrence of OD in other sectors has generally been decreasing, it has been increasing in the automotive industry, including growing spatial discrepancies. Data on OD cases were retrieved from the National Registry of Occupational Diseases. Further, we conducted a survey in automotive companies with a focus on occupational health services and positions of the companies in global production networks (GPNs). An analysis of OD distribution in the automotive industry was performed (age, gender, company size and its role in GPNs, regional distribution of studied companies, and regional unemployment rate), and was accompanied by an assessment of the quality and range of occupational health services. The employees older than 40 years had nearly 2.5 times higher probability of OD occurrence compared with employees younger than 40 years (OR 2.41; 95% CI: 2.05-2.85). The OD occurrence probability was 3 times higher for women than for men (OR 3.01; 95 % CI: 2.55-3.55). The OD incidence rate was increasing with the size of the company. An association between the OD incidence and the unemployment rate was not confirmed.

Keywords: occupational diseases, automotive industry, health geography, unemployment

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1065 Non Linear Dynamic Analysis of Cantilever Beam with Breathing Crack Using XFEM

Authors: K. Vigneshwaran, Manoj Pandey

Abstract:

In this paper, breathing crack is considered for the non linear dynamic analysis. The stiffness of the cracked beam is found out by using influence coefficients. The influence coefficients are calculated by using Castigliano’s theorem and strain energy release rate (SERR). The equation of motion of the beam was derived by using Hamilton’s principle. The stiffness and natural frequencies for the cracked beam has been calculated using XFEM and Eigen approach. It is seen that due to presence of cracks, the stiffness and natural frequency changes. The mode shapes and the FRF for the uncracked and breathing cracked cantilever beam also obtained and compared.

Keywords: breathing crack, XFEM, mode shape, FRF, non linear analysis

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1064 The 10-year Risk of Major Osteoporotic and Hip Fractures Among Indonesian People Living with HIV

Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

Abstract:

Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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1063 A Numerical Method for Diffusion and Cahn-Hilliard Equations on Evolving Spherical Surfaces

Authors: Jyh-Yang Wu, Sheng-Gwo Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a simple effective numerical geometric method to estimate the divergence of a vector field over a curved surface. The conservation law is an important principle in physics and mathematics. However, many well-known numerical methods for solving diffusion equations do not obey conservation laws. Our presented method in this paper combines the divergence theorem with a generalized finite difference method and obeys the conservation law on discrete closed surfaces. We use the similar method to solve the Cahn-Hilliard equations on evolving spherical surfaces and observe stability results in our numerical simulations.

Keywords: conservation laws, diffusion equations, Cahn-Hilliard equations, evolving surfaces

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1062 A Quadratic Approach for Generating Pythagorean Triples

Authors: P. K. Rahul Krishna, S. Sandeep Kumar, Jayanthi Sunder Raj

Abstract:

The article explores one of the important relations between numbers-the Pythagorean triples (triplets) which finds its application in distance measurement, construction of roads, towers, buildings and wherever Pythagoras theorem finds its application. The Pythagorean triples are numbers, that satisfy the condition “In a given set of three natural numbers, the sum of squares of two natural numbers is equal to the square of the other natural number”. There are numerous methods and equations to obtain the triplets, which have their own merits and demerits. Here, quadratic approach for generating triples uses the hypotenuse leg difference method. The advantage is that variables are few and finally only three independent variables are present.

Keywords: arithmetic progression, hypotenuse leg difference method, natural numbers, Pythagorean triplets, quadratic equation

Procedia PDF Downloads 194