Search results for: marginal and conditional past lifetimes

Authors: Pahirangan Sivapatham, , Esser Barbara

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The impacts of the asphalt mix design, the properties of aggregates and quality differences in the same type of bitumen, as well as the dosage rate of reclaimed asphalt on the relevant material parameter of the analytical pavement design method are not known. Due to that, in this study, the influence of the above mentioned characteristics on relevant material parameters has been determined and analyzed by means of the analytical pavement calculations method. Therefore, material parameters for several asphalt mixes for asphalt wearing course, asphalt binder course and asphalt base course have been determined. Thereby several bitumens of the same type from different producer’s have been used. In addition, asphalt base course materials with three different dosages of reclaimed asphalt have been produced and tested. As material parameter according to the German analytical pavement design guide(RDO Asphalt), the stiffness’s at different temperatures and fatigue behavior have been determined. The findings of asphalt base course materials produced with several pen graded bitumen from different producers and different dosages of reclaimed asphalt indicate the distinct impact on fatigue behaviors and mechanical properties. The calculated test results of the analytical pavement design method show significant differences in the lifetimes. The pavement design calculation is to carry out by means of the actual material parameter. The calculated lifetime of the asphalt base course materials differentiates by the factor 3.2. The determining test results of bitumen characteristics meet the requirement according to the German Standards. But, further investigations of bitumen in different aging conditions show significant differences in their quality. The fatigue behavior and stiffness of asphalt pavement improves with increasing dosage of reclaimed asphalt. Furthermore, the type of aggregates used shows no significant influences.

Keywords: reclaimed asphalt pavement, quality differences in the bitumen, life time calculation, Asphalt mix with RAP

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Authors: Chin Pang Lei

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Colonized by the UK, handed over to China, and now as a global financial city, Hong Kong’s history is never easy to write under the dominant discourses of colonialism, nationalism and globalization. In this plight, cinema, regarded as Hong Kong’s most representative cultural form, is used for writing, exploring and questioning the local history of the city. In their writing of the past, Hong Kong directors such as Wong Kar-wai, Stanley Kwan and Tsui Hark have demonstrated alternative ways of historicizing Hong Kong. Despite their interests in different periods of time (Wong is obsessed with the 1960s; Kwan is attracted to the 1930s; Tsui often goes back to the early 20th century), all these directors use genres as their time machines to revisit the past. As a popular cultural form, genres always come with a series of ideologies which define our lives and explain the society. Hence, in a changing society, genres change and complicate themselves with different packages of meanings. Genres function as open-ended and corrigible schemata which can contain multiple themes and various meanings. In Hong Kong, genres, often seen as highly commercial and overly market-oriented, are opportunities for alternative history writing and the exploration of local identities. This paper examines how these Hong Kong directors use the popular forms of genres, such as melodrama, martial art and gangster films, to present the past, and how the stories of the fictional characters, such as prostitutes, martial artists and jobless hooligans mobilize imagination of history. These texts show that genre is a crucial platform for Hong Kong’s post-colonial self-writing. Via genres, history in these films is against official and canonical history as well as grand narrative. Genres as time machines articulate a voice for Hong Kong.

Keywords: Hong Kong cinema, genre, historicizing, local history, Wong Kar-Wai

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Authors: Shao-Di Feng, Von-Wun Soo

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To generate symbolic music with specific emotions is a challenging task due to symbolic music datasets that have emotion labels are scarce and incomplete. This research aims to generate more refined emotions based on the training datasets that are only labeled with four quadrants in Russel’s 2D emotion model. We focus on the theory of Music Fadernet and map arousal and valence to the low-level attributes, and build a symbolic music generation model by combining transformer and GM-VAE. We adopt an in-attention mechanism for the model and improve it by allowing modulation by conditional information. And we show the music generation model could control the generation of music according to the emotions specified by users in terms of high-level linguistic expression and by manipulating their corresponding low-level musical attributes. Finally, we evaluate the model performance using a pre-trained emotion classifier against a pop piano midi dataset called EMOPIA, and by subjective listening evaluation, we demonstrate that the model could generate music with more refined emotions correctly.

Keywords: music generation, music emotion controlling, deep learning, semi-supervised learning

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Authors: Faishal Muhammad, Erlinda Muslim, Nadia Faradilla, Sayidul Fikri

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To deal with the increase of mass transportation needs problem, PT. Kereta Commuter Jabodetabek (KCJ) implements Commuter Vending Machine (C-VIM) as the solution. For that background, C-VIM is implemented as a substitute to the conventional ticket windows with the purposes to make transaction process more efficient and to introduce self-service technology to the commuter line user. However, this implementation causing problems and long queues when the user is not accustomed to using the machine. The objective of this research is to evaluate user experience after using the commuter vending machine. The goal is to analyze the existing user experience problem and to achieve a better user experience design. The evaluation method is done by giving task scenario according to the features offered by the machine. The features are daily insured ticket sales, ticket refund, and multi-trip card top up. There 20 peoples that separated into two groups of respondents involved in this research, which consist of 5 males and 5 females each group. The experienced and inexperienced user to prove that there is a significant difference between both groups in the measurement. The user experience is measured by both quantitative and qualitative measurement. The quantitative measurement includes the user performance metrics such as task success, time on task, error, efficiency, and learnability. The qualitative measurement includes system usability scale questionnaire (SUS), questionnaire for user interface satisfaction (QUIS), and retrospective think aloud (RTA). Usability performance metrics shows that 4 out of 5 indicators are significantly different in both group. This shows that the inexperienced group is having a problem when using the C-VIM. Conventional ticket windows also show a better usability performance metrics compared to the C-VIM. From the data processing, the experienced group give the SUS score of 62 with the acceptability scale of 'marginal low', grade scale of “D”, and the adjective ratings of 'good' while the inexperienced group gives the SUS score of 51 with the acceptability scale of 'marginal low', grade scale of 'F', and the adjective ratings of 'ok'. This shows that both groups give a low score on the system usability scale. The QUIS score of the experienced group is 69,18 and the inexperienced group is 64,20. This shows the average QUIS score below 70 which indicate a problem with the user interface. RTA was done to obtain user experience issue when using C-VIM through interview protocols. The issue obtained then sorted using pareto concept and diagram. The solution of this research is interface redesign using activity relationship chart. This method resulted in a better interface with an average SUS score of 72,25, with the acceptable scale of 'acceptable', grade scale of 'B', and the adjective ratings of 'excellent'. From the time on task indicator of performance metrics also shows a significant better time by using the new interface design. Result in this study shows that C-VIM not yet have a good performance and user experience.

Keywords: activity relationship chart, commuter line vending machine, system usability scale, usability performance metrics, user experience evaluation

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Authors: Suman

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In the continuous interaction between the past and the present that historiography is, each time when history gets re/written, a new representation emerges. This new representation is a reflection of the earlier archives and their interpretations, fragmented remembrances of the past, as well as the reactions to the present. Memory, or lack thereof, and stereotyping generally play a major role in this representation. William Dalrymple’s Nine Lives: In Search of the Sacred in Modern India (2009) is one such written account that sets out to narrate the representations of religion and culture of India and contemporary reactions to it. Dalrymple’s nine saints belong to different castes, sects, religions, and regions. By dealing with their religions and expressions of those religions, and through the lived mysticism of these nine individuals, the book engages with some important issues like class, caste and gender in the contexts provided by historical as well as present India. The paper studies the development of religion and accompanied feeling of religiosity in modern as well as historical contexts through a study of these elements in the book. Since, the language used in creation of texts and the literary texts thus produced create a new reality that questions the stereotypes of the past, and in turn often end up creating new stereotypes or stereotypical representations at times, the paper seeks to actively engage with the text in order to identify and study such stereotypes, along with their changing representations. Through a detailed examination of the book, the paper seeks to unravel whether some socio-cultural stereotypes existed earlier, and whether there is development of new stereotypes from Dalrymple’s point of view as an outsider writing on issues that are deeply rooted in the cultural milieu of the country. For this analysis, the paper takes help from the psycho-literary theories of stereotyping and representation.

Keywords: stereotyping, representation, William Dalrymple, religion

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Authors: Krystal Wang, Chongzheng Wei, Runsen Chen, Shufang Sun

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Suicide is a global public mental health issue and is the tenth leading cause of death globally. Approximately 75% of suicides occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Compared to the general population, transgender and gender nonconforming (TGNC) young people have higher suicidal risks. Research has shown that the prevalence of suicidal behaviors among TGNC populations was high in both the United States and China. However, studies were mostly embedded within Western cultures. Limited data and research were available to assess suicidal behaviors among TGNC youth in LMIC countries and to consider various types of TGNC youth. The goal of the current project is to 1) investigate the prevalence of lifetime and past-year suicidal ideations, plans, and attempts among Chinese TGNC youth, 2) explore the relationship between gender identity and suicidal outcomes among TGNC youth in China, 3) identify individual, school, and family level risk and protective factors for suicidal behaviors. The study used data from a cross-sectional survey conducted by Beijing LGBTQ Center in 2021. The survey was the largest TGNC population study in China to understand the health conditions of TGNC individuals. Of the 7612 individuals who completed the survey, a total of 5632 youth (aged 10 to 19) was included in the final analysis. 2259 (40.11%) participants were categorized as transfeminine youth, 1034 (18.36%) as transmasculine youth, 1169 (20.76%) as nonbinary youth AFAB, 568 (10.09%) as nonbinary youth AMAB, 344 (6.11%) as questioning youth AFAB and 258 (4.58%) as questioning youth AMAB. Suicidal behaviors were assessed by asking about lifetime suicidal ideation and attempts, past 12 months suicidal ideation, plan and attempts, and suicidal methods. To achieve the aims, we conducted statistical analysis in Stata/SE 17.0 to 1) describe the prevalence of suicidal outcomes and 2) assess the relationship between gender identity and suicidal outcomes by performing crosstabs, bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions, and adjusting for covariates. The lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideations and attempts for the whole sample was 85.13% and 51.7%. Transfeminine youth had a significantly higher risk for lifetime suicidal ideations (Odds Ratios (OR) = 1.67, CI:1.28,2.18) and attempts than transmasculine youth (OR=1.66, CI: 1.35,2.03), adjusting for age and past year binge drinking, known risk factors of suicide behavior. Past-year prevalence of suicidal behaviors was also high among TGNC youth, with 75.69% in suicidal ideation, 88.77% in suicidal plans, and 57.96% in suicidal attempts. Transfeminine youth, among six subgroups, had the highest risk for past-year suicidal ideations and attempts compared to transmasculine youth. Non-binary youth, regardless of sex assigned at birth, also had a significantly higher risk for suicidal ideations. The prevalence of lifetime and past-year suicidal behaviors was alarming among TGNC youth in China. Among different categories of TGNC youth, transfeminine youth reported the most elevated suicidal risk. The findings indicated a compelling need for researchers and practitioners to address the mental health risks for this specific group and target interventions for TGNC youth in China.

Keywords: child and adolescent mental health, gender minority health, cross-cultural perspective, preventing suicide in youth

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Authors: Adeola Ayodele Oluwabiyi

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The study undertook an in depth examination of the relevant sections of the Nigerian Constitution and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Act as it relates to the appointment and removal of the CBN Governor; It analysed the Constitutional issues that arose from the removal of the immediate past Governor of the CBN; and made recommendations as appropriate. The study relied on primary and secondary sources of information. The primary sources included the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Statutes, Conventions and Judicial decisions, while the secondary sources included Books, Journals Articles, Newspapers and Internet Materials. The study revealed that the removal of the CBN Governor was not in accordance with the Nigerian Constitution and the CBN Act that Guarantee such. It also revealed some of the arguments in support of the removal. The study concluded that the removal of the immediate past Governor of CBN was an outright disregard for the rule of law. The study concluded that if Government treat the laws in question with levity and contempt the confidence of the citizens in such government will be seriously eroded and the effect of that will be the beginning of anarchy in replacement of the rule of law. It could also have serious economic implications on the economy of any nation.

Keywords: central bank, governor, laws, Nigeria

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Authors: Chiedza Z. Tsvakirai, Precious M. Tshabalala, Frikkie Liebenberg, Johann F. Kirsten

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Agricultural research conducted by the Agricultural Research Council has played an important role in increasing the productivity and profitability of the South African peach and nectarine industry. However, the importance of this research remains unclear to the industry stakeholders because a rate of return for this research has never been done. As a result, funding for the research at Agricultural Research Council has been waning because it is not clear how much value has been created and how much the industry stands to gain with continued research investment. Therefore, this study seeks to calculate the benefit of research investments in a bid to motivate for an increase in funding. The study utilized the supply response function to do this. The rate of return calculation revealed that agricultural research had a marginal internal rate of return of 55.9%. This means that every R1 invested yields a 56 c increase in value in the industry. Being this high, it can be concluded that investment in agricultural research is worthwhile. Thus justifies for an increase in research funding.

Keywords: Benefits of research investment, productivity.

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Authors: Mohammad Akram

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The aim of this study is to improve classroom management while teaching especially ESL/EFL. At the same time, it has been discussed about the standard of the students through some surveys held in Jazan University in the month of February and March, 2013. The present research is a classroom action-oriented study. The subject of the study is mainly the students whose first language is not English at all. The study is prepared in one cycle that has planning, action, and reaction as well. Teachers of English as a second language/foreign language generally face numerous of unexpected problems while dealing with their students. To make the classes practical, meaningful, and easy like fun for the students is really a cumbersome task. It's a very practical move towards classroom ESL/EFL teaching if we want to apply anything new, I mean new policies, tactics, recent/smart teaching methodologies, we must peep into the hole of past because it will give us the best solution for the present strategies. We need to academically study the past of our students to make their present fruitful. Here, author wants to present a few important problematic issues like classroom management in the area of ESL/EFL while teaching ESL students. Impact these are suggestions to combat drawbacks of 'Classroom Teaching'. “Classroom management is to put into practice and a process through teaching and learning process”.

Keywords: global, teachers, perceptions, classroom, management, integrated, segregated, comprehension, productive

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Authors: Mauro Callejas-Cuervo, Andrea C. Alarcon-Aldana, Andres F. Ruiz-Olaya, Juan C. Alvarez

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Motion capture (MC) is the construction of a precise and accurate digital representation of a real motion. Systems have been used in the last years in a wide range of applications, from films special effects and animation, interactive entertainment, medicine, to high competitive sport where a maximum performance and low injury risk during training and competition is seeking. This paper presents an inertial and magnetic sensor based technological platform, intended for particular amplitude monitoring and telerehabilitation processes considering an efficient cost/technical considerations compromise. Our platform particularities offer high social impact possibilities by making telerehabilitation accessible to large population sectors in marginal socio-economic sector, especially in underdeveloped countries that in opposition to developed countries specialist are scarce, and high technology is not available or inexistent. This platform integrates high-resolution low-cost inertial and magnetic sensors with adequate user interfaces and communication protocols to perform a web or other communication networks available diagnosis service. The amplitude information is generated by sensors then transferred to a computing device with adequate interfaces to make it accessible to inexperienced personnel, providing a high social value. Amplitude measurements of the platform virtual system presented a good fit to its respective reference system. Analyzing the robotic arm results (estimation error RMSE 1=2.12° and estimation error RMSE 2=2.28°), it can be observed that during arm motion in any sense, the estimation error is negligible; in fact, error appears only during sense inversion what can easily be explained by the nature of inertial sensors and its relation to acceleration. Inertial sensors present a time constant delay which acts as a first order filter attenuating signals at large acceleration values as is the case for a change of sense in motion. It can be seen a damped response of platform virtual in other images where error analysis show that at maximum amplitude an underestimation of amplitude is present whereas at minimum amplitude estimations an overestimation of amplitude is observed. This work presents and describes the platform virtual as a motion capture system suitable for telerehabilitation with the cost - quality and precision - accessibility relations optimized. These particular characteristics achieved by efficiently using the state of the art of accessible generic technology in sensors and hardware, and adequate software for capture, transmission analysis and visualization, provides the capacity to offer good telerehabilitation services, reaching large more or less marginal populations where technologies and specialists are not available but accessible with basic communication networks.

Keywords: inertial sensors, joint amplitude measurement, MEMS, telerehabilitation

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Authors: Thomas A. Fuller

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Over the past fifteen years, virtual schooling has been introduced and implemented in varying degrees throughout the public education system in the United States. It is possible in some states for students to voluntarily take all of their course load online, without ever having to step in a classroom. Experts foresee a dramatic rise in the number of courses taken online by public school students in the United States, with some predicting that by 2019 as many as 50% of public high school courses will be delivered online. This electronic delivery of public education offers tremendous potential to the scientific community because it calls for innovation and is funded by public school revenue. Public accountability provides a ready supply of statistical data for measuring the progress of virtual schools as they are implemented into the public school arena. This allows for a survey of the current use of virtual schooling through examination of past statistical data, as well as forecasting forward for future years based upon this past data. Virtual schooling is on the rise in the United States, but its growth has been tempered by practical problems of implementation. The greatest and best use of virtual schooling thus far has been to supplement the courses offered by public schools (e.g., offering unique language courses, elective courses, and games-based math and science courses). The weaknesses of virtual schooling lay in the problematic accountability in allowing students to take courses online at home and the lack of supportive infrastructure in the public school arena. Virtual schooling holds great promise for the public school education system in the United States, as well as the scientific community. Online courses allow students access to a much greater catalog of courses than is offered through classroom instruction in their local public school. This promising sector needs assistance from the scientific community in implementing new pedagogical methodologies.

Keywords: virtual schools, online classroom, electronic delivery, technological innovation

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Authors: Jiya Mohammed, Tsadu Shuaib, Yusuf Abdulhakeem

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The research work focuses on the cases of MHD boundary layer flow past a stretching plate with heat transfer and viscous dissipation. The non-linear of momentum and energy equation are transform into ordinary differential equation by using similarity transformation, the resulting equation are solved using Adomian Decomposition Method (ADM). An attempt has been made to show the potentials and wide range application of the Adomian decomposition method in the comparison with the previous one in solving heat transfer problems. The Pade approximates value (η= 11[11, 11]) is use on the difficulty at infinity. The results are compared by numerical technique method. A vivid conclusion can be drawn from the results that ADM provides highly precise numerical solution for non-linear differential equations. The result where accurate especially for η ≤ 4, a general equating terms of Eckert number (Ec), Prandtl number (Pr) and magnetic parameter ( ) is derived which was used to investigate velocity and temperature profiles in boundary layer.

Keywords: MHD, Adomian decomposition, boundary layer, viscous dissipation

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Authors: Shin-Shin Kao

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This paper reviews the crucial situation in higher education in Taiwan due to the rapid decline of the birth rate in the past three decades, and how the government and local colleges/universities work to face the challenge. Recruiting international students is one of the possible ways to resolve the problem, but offering enough courses in English is one of the main obstacles when the majority of learners are still Taiwanese students. In the academic year of 2012, Chung Yuan Christian University determined to make its campus international and began to enforce two required courses for freshmen taught in English. It failed in the beginning, but succeeded in the following academic year of 2013. Using the teaching evaluations accumulated in the past three years, this paper aims to clarify the myths which had been bothering most faculties. It also offers some suggestions for college/university teachers interested in giving lectures in English to English as Second Language (ESL) learners. A conclusion is presented at the end of the paper, in which the author explained why Taiwanese students could learn their profession in English.

Keywords: calculus, English, teaching evaluation, teaching strategy, vocabulary

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Authors: Maria De Los Angeles Rodriguez Cadena

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This paper discusses how the fictional versions of women of the past contribute to advance today’s ideas of social justice, personal freedom and emancipation as well as to highlight the creative challenge of constructing people and events on fictional narratives on television that incorporate multiple and simultaneous layers of meaning and complexity. This project builds on existing scholarship on audiovisual texts by exploring an influential but under-studied director. In two Mexican television series, Patricia Arriaga Jordan, an award-winning television producer, scriptwriter and director, constructs the life of two outstanding women that have played an influential role in national history and captured Mexican’s popular imagination for generations: Sor Juana Inés de la Cruz, and Malinche. Malinche (2018) tells the story of an extraordinary indigenous woman, Malintzin, during the Spanish Conquest (1511-1550) that is considered to have played a key role in the fall of the Aztec empire by acting as translator, negotiator and cultural mediator for the Spanish conquerors. Juana Ines (2016) portrays Sor Juana, a poet, essayist, playwright, theologian, philosopher, nun, of XVII century colonial Mexico, one of the brightest minds of her time, and now recognized as the first feminist of the Americas who wrote on the rights of women to an education, religious authority and feminist advocacy. Both series, as fictional narratives that recreate defining historical periods, specific events and relevant characters in the History of Mexico can be read as an example of what is called texts of cultural memory. A cultural memory text is a narrative that bonds the concepts of history, identity and belonging, and that is realized and disseminated through symbolic systems such as written documents, visual images, and dramatic representation. Cultural memory, through its narratives of historical fiction, emphasizes memory processes (historiography) and its implications and artifacts (cultural memory) mainly through the medial frameworks of remembering, which are the medial process by which memories (narratives, documents) participate in public knowledge and become collective memory. Historical fiction on television not only creates a portrayal of the past related to the real lives of protagonists, but it also significantly contributes to understand the past as an ever-evolving entity that highlights both, the necessary connection with the present as part of a developing sense of collective identity and belonging, as well as the relevance of the medium in which the past is represented and that ultimately supports the process of historical awareness. Through the emblematic recreation of national heroines and historical events in the unique context of historical drama on television, those texts constitute a venue where concepts of the past and the traditionally established ideas about history and heroines are highlighted, questioned and transformed.

Keywords: cultural memory, historical fiction, Mexico, television, women directors

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Authors: Aaron Kim, Nydia Hernandez

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Despite the known deficits in sleep duration among adolescents and the increasing prevalence of substance use behaviors among this group, relatively little is known about how insufficient sleep is related to various substance use behaviors and the underlying mechanisms. Informed by the literature suggesting the predictive role of insufficient sleep for substance use and depressive symptoms, we hypothesized that adolescents who lack sufficient sleep during school nights would report a higher level of depressive symptoms and substance use than their counterparts with sufficient sleep. We also hypothesized that depressive symptoms would explain the association of insufficient sleep with substance use, suggesting that mental health plays an important role as a mechanism between insufficient sleep and substance use. This study used the data drawn from the 2019 Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System Data, which includes a nationally representative sample of U.S. high school students (N=13,677, 49.4% Female, 9th-12th graders). Self-report measures of insufficient sleep (sleeping<7 h on an average school night), depressive symptoms (yes/no), any past 30-day use of cigarette (yes/no), e-cigarette (yes/no), alcohol (yes/no), and marijuana (yes/no). Among the total sample, 47.9% of students reported that they did not have sufficient sleep on school nights, indicating sleeping less than 7 hours. Regarding depressive symptoms, 36.7% of students reported feeling sad or hopeless almost every day for two weeks or more in a row during the past 12 months. Also, the percentages of students who reported one or more times of cigarette use, e-cigarette use, alcohol use, and marijuana use in the past month were 5.32%, 30.11%, 26.83%, and 21.65%, respectively. For bivariate associations among these study variables, insufficient sleep was positively associated with other variables: depressive symptoms (r=.08, p<.001), cigarette use (r=.03, p<.001), e-cigarette use (r=.04, p<.001), alcohol use (r=.07, p<.001), and marijuana use (r=.08, p<.001). After controlling for students’ characteristics (i.e., age, gender, race/ethnicity, grades), sleeping less than 7 hours on school nights (vs. sleeping more than 7 hours) was significantly associated with the past 30-day use of alcohol and marijuana, whereas cigarette and e-cigarette uses were not. That is, the students who reported having an insufficient sleep on school nights had higher odds of alcohol (Odds Ratio [OR]=1.15, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]=1.014-1.301) and marijuana use (OR=1.36, 95% CI=1.132-1.543). In a subsequent analysis including depressive symptoms together with insufficient sleep, the association of insufficient sleep with alcohol use (OR=1.13, 95% CI=1.011-1.297) and marijuana use (OR=1.33, 95% CI=1.130-1.521) were attenuated and explained by depressive symptoms. Depressive symptoms significantly increased the odds of alcohol use by 32.2% (OR=1.32, 95% CI=1.131-1.557) and marijuana use by 202.1% (OR=2.02, 95% CI=1.672-2.502). These findings together suggest that insufficient sleep may contribute to increased risks of substance uses among adolescents. The current study also shows that psychological disorders of adolescents play important roles in understanding the association between insufficient sleep and substance use, suggesting insufficient sleep is related to substance use indirectly through depressive symptoms. This study indicates the importance of sleep deprivation among adolescents and screening for insufficient sleep in preventing/intervening in substance use.

Keywords: adolescents, depressive symptoms, sleep, substance use

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Authors: Gou-Moon Choi, Woo-Young Jung, Chan-Young Yune

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Recently, the natural disaster has increased worldwide. In Korea, the damage to life and property caused by a typhoon, heavy rain, heavy snow, and an extreme wind also increases every year. Among natural disasters, the frequency and the strength of wind have increased because sea surface temperature has risen due to the increase of the average temperature of the Earth. In the case of extreme wind disaster, it is impossible to control or reduce the occurrence, and the recovery cost always exceeds the damage cost. Therefore, quantitative estimation of the damage cost for extreme wind needs to be established beforehand to install proactive countermeasures. In this study, the damage cost for private properties was analyzed based on the data for the past 10 years in Korea. The damage cost curve was also suggested for the metropolitan cities and provinces. The result shows the possibility for the regional application of the damage cost curve because the damage cost of the regional area is estimated based on the cost of cities and provinces.

Keywords: damage cost, extreme wind, natural disaster, private property

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Authors: Krisada Lekdee, Sunee Sammatat, Nittaya Boonsit

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This paper proposes a GLMM with spatial and temporal effects for malaria data in Thailand. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling MCMC. A conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. The temporal correlation is presented through the covariance matrix of the random effects. The malaria quarterly data have been extracted from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand. The factors considered are rainfall and temperature. The result shows that rainfall and temperature are positively related to the malaria morbidity rate. The posterior means of the estimated morbidity rates are used to construct the malaria maps. The top 5 highest morbidity rates (per 100,000 population) are in Trat (Q3, 111.70), Chiang Mai (Q3, 104.70), Narathiwat (Q4, 97.69), Chiang Mai (Q2, 88.51), and Chanthaburi (Q3, 86.82). According to the DIC criterion, the proposed model has a better performance than the GLMM with spatial effects but without temporal terms.

Keywords: Bayesian method, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), malaria, spatial effects, temporal correlation

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Authors: Alice Sanwald, Thomas Schober

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We analyze mortality and follow-up costs of heart attack patients using administrative data from Austria (2002-2011). As treatment intensity in a hospital largely depends on whether it has a catheterization laboratory, we focus on the effects of patients' initial admission to these specialized hospitals. To account for the nonrandom selection of patients into hospitals, we exploit individuals' place of residence as a source of exogenous variation in an instrumental variable framework. We find that the initial admission to specialized hospitals increases patients' survival chances substantially. The effect on 3-year mortality is -9.5 percentage points. A separation of the sample into subgroups shows the strongest effects in relative terms for patients below the age of 65. We do not find significant effects on longterm inpatient costs and find only marginal increases in outpatient costs.

Keywords: acute myocardial infarction, mortality, costs, instrumental variables, heart attack

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

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Authors: Yaping Zhao

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In the present study, the exact solutions for the steady response of quasi-linear systems under non-white wide-band random excitation are considered by means of the stochastic averaging method. The non linearity of the systems contains the power-law damping and the cross-product term of the power-law damping and displacement. The drift and diffusion coefficients of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation after averaging are obtained by a succinct approach. After solving the averaged FPK equation, the joint probability density function and the marginal probability density function in steady state are attained. In the process of resolving, the eigenvalue problem of ordinary differential equation is handled by integral equation method. Some new results are acquired and the novel method to deal with the problems in nonlinear random vibration is proposed.

Keywords: random vibration, stochastic averaging method, FPK equation, transition probability density

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Authors: S. Ajith Kumar, Vaisakh S. Rajan

Abstract:

In external flows, vortex shedding behind the bluff bodies causes to experience unsteady loads on a large number of engineering structures, resulting in structural failure. Vortex shedding can even turn out to be disastrous like the Tacoma Bridge failure incident. We need to have control over vortex shedding to get rid of this untoward condition by reducing the unsteady forces acting on the bluff body. In circular cylinders, hydrophobic surface in an otherwise no-slip surface is found to be delaying separation and minimizes the effects of vortex shedding drastically. Flow over square cylinder stands different from this behavior as separation can takes place from either of the two corner separation points (front or rear). An attempt is made in this study to numerically elucidate the effect of hydrophobic surface in flow over a square cylinder. A 2D numerical simulation has been done to understand the effects of the slip surface on the flow past square cylinder. The details of the numerical algorithm will be presented at the time of the conference. A non-dimensional parameter, Knudsen number is defined to quantify the slip on the cylinder surface based on Maxwell’s equation. The slip surface condition of the wall affects the vorticity distribution around the cylinder and the flow separation. In the numerical analysis, we observed that the hydrophobic surface enhances the shedding frequency and damps down the amplitude of oscillations of the square cylinder. We also found that the slip has a negative effect on aerodynamic force coefficients such as the coefficient of lift (CL), coefficient of drag (CD) etc. and hence replacing the no slip surface by a hydrophobic surface can be treated as an effective drag reduction strategy and the introduction of hydrophobic surface could be utilized for reducing the vortex induced vibrations (VIV) and is found as an effective method in controlling VIV thereby controlling the structural failures.

Keywords: drag reduction, flow past square cylinder, flow control, hydrophobic surfaces, vortex shedding

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Authors: Asra Yousuf, Ajaykumar Tannirkulum

Abstract:

Inferring rural-urban migration trends can help design effective policies that promote better urban planning and rural development. In this paper, we describe how machine learning algorithms can be applied to predict internal migration decisions of people. We consider data collected from household surveys in Tamil Nadu to train our model. To measure the performance of the model, we use data on past migration from National Sample Survey Organisation of India. The factors for training the model include socioeconomic characteristic of each individual like age, gender, place of residence, outstanding loans, strength of the household, etc. and his past migration history. We perform a comparative analysis of the performance of a number of machine learning algorithm to determine their prediction accuracy. Our results show that machine learning algorithms provide a stronger prediction accuracy as compared to statistical models. Our goal through this research is to propose the use of data science techniques in understanding human decisions and behaviour in developing countries.

Keywords: development, migration, internal migration, machine learning, prediction

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Authors: Rajesh Bhatt, Dilip Kumar Maiti

Abstract:

The incompressible shear flow past a square cylinder placed parallel to a plane wall of side length A in presence of upstream rectangular cylinder of height 0.5A and width 0.25A in an inline tandem arrangement are numerically investigated using finite volume method. The discretized equations are solved by an implicit, time-marching, pressure correction based SIMPLE algorithm. This study provides the qualitative insight in to the dependency of basic structure (i.e. vortex shedding or suppression) of flow over the downstream square cylinder and the upstream rectangular cylinder (and hence the aerodynamic characteristics) on inter-cylinder spacing (S) and Reynolds number (Re). The spacing between the cylinders is varied systematically from S = 0.5A to S = 7.0A so the sensitivity of the flow structure between the cylinders can be inspected. A sudden jump in strouhal number is observed, which shows the transition of flow pattern in the wake of the cylinders. The results are presented at Re = 100 and 200 in term of Strouhal number, RMS and mean of lift and drag coefficients and contour plots for different spacing.

Keywords: square cylinder, vortex shedding, isolated, tandem arrangement, spacing distance

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Authors: Kyugneun Lee, Ikjin Lee

Abstract:

Parameter estimation with inverse problem often suffers from unfavorable conditions in the real world. Useless data and many input parameters make the problem complicated or insoluble. Data refinement and reformulation of the problem can solve that kind of difficulties. In this research, a method to solve the rank deficient inverse problem is suggested. A multi-physics system which has rank deficiency caused by response correlation is treated. Impeditive information is removed and the problem is reformulated to sequential estimations using Bayesian network (BN) and subset groups. At first, subset grouping of the responses is performed. Feature selection with singular value decomposition (SVD) is used for the grouping. Next, BN inference is used for sequential conditional estimation according to the group hierarchy. Directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure is organized to maximize the estimation ability. Variance ratio of response to noise is used to pairing the estimable parameters by each response.

Keywords: Bayesian network, feature selection, rank deficiency, statistical inverse analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Anne Heirman, Vincent van der Noort, Rob van Son, Marije Petersen, Lisette van der Molen, Gyorgy Halmos, Richard Dirven, Michiel van den Brekel

Abstract:

Objective: Voice prosthesis leakage significantly impacts laryngectomies patients' quality of life, causing insecurity and frequent unplanned hospital visits and costs. In this study, the concept of prophylactic voice prosthesis replacement was explored to prevent leakages. Study Design: A retrospective cohort study. Setting: Tertiary hospital. Methods: Device lifetimes and voice prosthesis replacements of a retrospective cohort, including all patients with laryngectomies between 2000 and 2012 in the Netherlands Cancer Institute, were used to calculate the number of needed voice prostheses per patient per year when preventing 70% of the leakages by prophylactic replacement. Various strategies for the timing of prophylactic replacement were considered: Adaptive strategies based on the individual patient’s history of replacement and fixed strategies based on the results of patients with similar voice prosthesis or treatment characteristics. Results: Patients used a median of 3.4 voice prostheses per year (range 0.1-48.1). We found a high inter-and intrapatient variability in device lifetime. When applying prophylactic replacement, this would become a median of 9.4 voice prostheses per year, which means replacement every 38 days, implying more than six additional voice prostheses per patient per year. The individual adaptive model showed that preventing 70% of the leakages was impossible for most patients, and only a median of 25% can be prevented. Monte-Carlo simulations showed that prophylactic replacement is not feasible due to the high Coefficient of Variation (Standard Deviation/Mean) in device lifetime. Conclusion: Based on our simulations, prophylactic replacement of voice prostheses is not feasible due to high inter-and intrapatient variation in device lifetime.

Keywords: voice prosthesis, voice rehabilitation, total laryngectomy, prosthetic leakage, device lifetime

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Authors: Leto Leandra, Guaitini Caterina, Agosti Anna, Del Vecchio Lorenzo, Guarrasi Valeria, Cirlini Martina, Chiancone Benedetta

Abstract:

To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first attempt to investigate the in vitro germination response of Rhus coriaria L., and its sprout chemical characterization. Rhus coriaria L., a species belonging to the Anacardiaceae family, is commonly called "sumac" and is cultivated, in different countries of the Mediterranean and the Middle East regions, to produce a spice with a sour taste, obtained from its dried and ground fruits. Moreover, since ancient times, many beneficial properties have been attributed to this plant that has been used, in the traditional medicine of several Asian countries, against various diseases, including liver and intestinal pathologies, ulcers and various inflammatory states. In the recent past, sumac was cultivated in the Southern regions of Italy to treat leather, but its cultivation was abandoned, and currently, sumac plants grow spontaneously in marginal areas. Recently, in Italy, the interest in this species has been growing again, thanks to its numerous properties; thus, it becomes imperative to deepen the knowledge of this plant. In this study, in order to set up an efficient in vitro seed germination protocol, sumac seeds collected from spontaneous plants grown in Sicily, an island in the South of Italy, were, firstly, subjected to different treatments, scarification (mechanical, physical and chemical), cold stratification and imbibition, to break their physical and physiological dormancy, then, treated seeds were in vitro cultured on media with different gibberellic acid (GA3) concentrations. Results showed that, without any treatment, only 5% of in vitro sown seeds germinated, while the germination percentage increased up to 19% after the mechanical scarification. A further significative improvement of germination percentages was recorded after the physical scarification, with (40.5%) or without (36.5%) 8 weeks of cold stratification, especially when seeds were sown on gibberellin enriched cultured media. Vitro-derived sumac sprouts, at different developmental stages, were chemically characterized, in terms of polyphenol and tannin content, as well as for their antioxidant activity, to evaluate this matrix as a potential novel food or as a source of bioactive compounds. Results evidenced how more developed sumac sprouts and, above all, their leaves are a wealthy source of polyphenols (78.4 GAE/g SS) and tannins (21.9 mg GAE/g SS), with marked antioxidant activity. The outcomes of this study will be of support the nursery sector and sumac growers in obtaining a higher number of plants in a shorter time; moreover, the sprout chemical characterization will contribute to the process of considering this matrix as a new source of bioactive compounds and tannins to be used in food and non-food sectors.

Keywords: bioactive compounds, germination pre-treatments, rhus coriaria l., tissue culture

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Authors: Leto Leandra, Guaitini Caterina, Agosti Anna, Del Vecchio Lorenzo, Guarrasi Valeria, Cirlini Martina, Chiancone Benedetta

Abstract:

To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first attempt to investigate the in vitro germination response of Rhus coriaria L. and its sprout chemical characterization. Rhus coriaria L., a species belonging to the Anacardiaceae family, is commonly called "sumac” and is cultivated, in different countries of the Mediterranean and the Middle East regions, to produce a spice with a sour taste, obtained from its dried and ground fruits. Moreover, since ancient times, many beneficial properties have been attributed to this plant that has been used, in the traditional medicine of several Asian countries, against various diseases, including liver and intestinal pathologies, ulcers, and various inflammatory states. In the recent past, sumac was cultivated in the Southern regions of Italy to treat leather, but its cultivation was abandoned, and currently, sumac plants grow spontaneously in marginal areas. Recently, in Italy, the interest in this species has been growing again, thanks to its numerous properties; thus, it becomes imperative to deepen the knowledge of this plant. In this study, in order to set up an efficient in vitro seed germination protocol, sumac seeds collected from spontaneous plants grown in Sicily, an island in the South of Italy, were, firstly, subjected to different treatments, scarification (mechanical, physical and chemical), cold stratification and imbibition, to break their physical and physiological dormancy, then, treated seeds were in vitro cultured on media with different gibberellic acid (GA3) concentrations. Results showed that, without any treatment, only 5% of in vitro sown seeds germinated, while the germination percentage increased up to 19% after the mechanical scarification. A further significative improvement of germination percentages was recorded after the physical scarification, with (40.5%) or without (36.5%) 8 weeks of cold stratification, especially when seeds were sown on gibberellin enriched cultured media. Vitro-derived sumac sprouts, at different developmental stages, were chemically characterized, in terms of polyphenol and tannin content, as well as for their antioxidant activity, to evaluate this matrix as a potential novel food or as a source of bioactive compounds. Results evidenced how more developed sumac sprouts and, above all, their leaves are a wealthy source of polyphenols (78.4 GAE/g SS) and tannins (21.9 mg GAE/g SS), with marked antioxidant activity. The outcomes of this study will be of support the nursery sector and sumac growers in obtaining a higher number of plants in a shorter time; moreover, the sprout chemical characterization will contribute to the process of considering this matrix as a new source of bioactive compounds and tannins to be used in food and non-food sectors.

Keywords: bioactive compounds, germination pre-treatments, rhus coriaria l., tissue culture

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Authors: Othmane Essahili, Mohamed Ilsouk, Carine Duhayon, Omar Moudam

Abstract:

Due to their excellent and promising properties, a great deal of attention has recently been devoted to luminescent materials, particularly those utilizing rare earth elements. These materials play an essential role in low-cost energy conversion technology applications, such as luminescent solar concentrators (LSCs). They also have potential applications in Agri-PV systems and smart building windows. Luminescent materials based on europium (III) complexes are known for their high luminescence efficiency, long fluorescence lifetimes, and sharp emission bands. However, they present certain drawbacks related to their limited absorption capacity due to the forbidden 4f-4f electronic transitions. To address these drawbacks, using β-diketonate ligands as sensitizers appears as a promising solution to enhance luminescence intensity through the antenna effect, where the ligand's excited energy is transferred to the europium ions. In this study, we synthesized β-diketonate-based europium complexes with phenanthroline derivatives, modified with various methyl groups, to examine their effects on the complexes' stability in poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) films. Our findings reveal that these complexes exhibit remarkable red emission and high photoluminescence quantum yield. Stability tests under different conditions for 1200 hours showed that complexes with a higher number of methyl substitutions offer improved photoluminescent stability and resistance to degradation, particularly in outdoor settings. This research underscores the potential of chemically tuned phenanthroline ligands in developing stable, efficient luminescent materials for future optoelectronic devices, including efficient and durable LSCs.

Keywords: luminescent materials, photochemistry, luminescent solar concentrators, β-diketonate-based europium complexes

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Authors: Anna Strakowska, Marian Zaborski

Abstract:

This abstract focuses an overview of the methods used to create self-healing silicone composites. It has been shown how incorporating of polyhedral oligomeric silsesquioxanes (POSS) molecules with acid and basic groups to silicone rubber affects the barrier properties, mechanical properties in room and reduced temperature or the influence on relaxation rates of the methylvinylsilicone rubber vulcanizates. Moreover, the presence of silsesquioxanes, their content and the way of composites preparing affect the amount of ionic bonds, as indicated by dynamic - mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA) as well as measurements of equilibrium swelling in toluene. The aim of this work was to study the influence of concentration and different functional groups types selected silsesquioxanes compounds on self-healing effect of silicone rubber and obtain elastomers with good barrier and mechanical properties. Composites based on the methylvinylsilicone rubber with fumed silica as the fillers were manufactured and studied. To obtain self-healing effect various silsesquioxanes with amino and acid groups were used. Every tested sample demonstrated the ability to the self-treatment. The most significant effect was observed for system containing amic-acid isobytyl POSS/ aminopropylisobutyl POSS. Composite with this silsesquioxanes was exhibited the best improvement of gas permeability after heal. Moreover, the addition of POSS with acid and basic groups clearly affects the mechanical properties of the vulcanizates. The most significant effect was observed for the composite material consisting of amic-acid isobytyl POSS / aminoethylaminopropylisobutyl POSS, which tensile strength was even greater than the reference vulcanizate with fumed silica. The development of autonomous self-healing materials could have an enormous influence on all industry branches from motorization to power industry. Self-repairing materials would have a massive impact on lengthening product lifetimes, increasing safety, and lowering product costs by reducing maintenance requirements.

Keywords: barrier properties, mechanical properties, POSS, self-healing composites

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Authors: Neil Michael Walsh, Angelique Lombarts

Abstract:

The authors propose that hospitality is ‘made’ (constituted and performed) in the encounters on the Silk-Routes. Inspired with an initial Derridean perspective on hospitality (the conditional/unconditional) and methodologically underpinned with a Delueuzian relational-rhizomatic approach, the authors contend that hospitality is (re)produced in the encounters of self/other, east/west (among others). Thus, in the spirit of performativity and using the temporal-spatial conduit of the Silk Routes (the sites of ethical, cultural, economic, and material interaction of such exchange), the authors concur that hospitality is produced at the moment in which it is performed. Key themes engaged as units of analysis become welcome, reception, hostility, (and so on) which the authors engage and examine –as they unfold- in the narratives and accounts and material legacies of those who travelled the Silk Routes between the 2nd and 18th Centuries. The preliminary results suggest that these earlier performative moments in hospitality-making on the silk routes continue to resonate and ‘form’ the hospitalities of today. Indeed, these acts of hospitality continue to reconstitute and are never a final state of affairs.

Keywords: hospitality-genealogy, interactions, hospitality-making, Silk-Routes, rhizome, relationality

Procedia PDF Downloads 110