Search results for: cumulative risk

Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

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The market of financial instruments with high risk is developing very dynamically in recent years and attracts more and more interest of investors. It consists essentially of two groups of instruments, i.e. derivatives and exchange traded product (ETP), and each year new types are introduced and offered to investors. The aim of this paper is to present the principles concerning financial instruments with high investment risk available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), because they have quite complex constructions, and to evaluate the development of this market. In order to achieve this aim, statistical data from 2014-2016 was analyzed. The results confirm that the financial instruments with high investment risk available on the WSE constitute a diversified and the most numerous group of financial instruments and attract the most interest of investors. Responsible investing requires, however, a good knowledge of how they work and how they can generate profit to not expose oneself to unexpected losses.

Keywords: derivatives, exchange traded products (ETP), financial instruments, financial market, risk, stock exchange

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Authors: Shakila Singh

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This research was conducted at a selected South African university campus with women students who drink alcohol. The purpose of the study was to examine their perspectives on the role of alcohol in their lives, their understandings about women’s vulnerability to alcohol-related sexual risk and their strategies against these. The study draws on feminist principles and practices to challenge gendered inequalities that legitimate and facilitate violence against women. Recognising the danger of focusing on risk management in ways that place the burden of responsibility entirely on young women to prevent their violation, this article focuses on women students’ agency in managing risk while taking up opportunities for self-discovery. Participation was voluntary, and a student-researcher administered an open-ended questionnaire to 55 participants. The findings suggest that young women position alcohol- use as a common activity at university, and that it gives them much pleasure. They recognise that it is riskier for women and articulate valuable strategies to manage the risk to their sexual safety when drinking. These include drinking within supportive networks, avoiding financial dependence, and managing their alcohol intake. This article argues that alcohol at university is an integral part of expressions of gender and sexuality and that risk-taking is a normal part of university students’ lives. Consequently, arguments about equality need to consider risk-taking as part of young people’s lives and promote ways of managing alcohol-related risks, rather than imagining that alcohol can be avoided entirely.

Keywords: alcohol-related sexual risk, drinking at university, managing risk, women students

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Authors: Natalia Kalinowska

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The adoption of the General Data Protection Regulation, (GDPR) finished the four-year work of the European Commission in this area in the European Union. Considering far-reaching changes, which will be applied by GDPR, the European legislator envisaged two-year transitional period. Member states and companies have to prepare for a new regulation until 25 of May 2018. The idea, which becomes a new look at an attitude to data protection in the European Union is risk-based approach. So far, as a result of implementation of Directive 95/46/WE, in many European countries (including Poland) there have been adopted very particular regulations, specifying technical and organisational security measures e.g. Polish implementing rules indicate even how long password should be. According to the new approach from May 2018, controllers and processors will be obliged to apply security measures adequate to level of risk associated with specific data processing. The risk in GDPR should be interpreted as the likelihood of a breach of the rights and freedoms of the data subject. According to Recital 76, the likelihood and severity of the risk to the rights and freedoms of the data subject should be determined by reference to the nature, scope, context and purposes of the processing. GDPR does not indicate security measures which should be applied – in recitals there are only examples such as anonymization or encryption. It depends on a controller’s decision what type of security measures controller considered as sufficient and he will be responsible if these measures are not sufficient or if his identification of risk level is incorrect. Data protection regulation indicates few levels of risk. Recital 76 indicates risk and high risk, but some lawyers think, that there is one more category – low risk/now risk. Low risk/now risk data processing is a situation when it is unlikely to result in a risk to the rights and freedoms of natural persons. GDPR mentions types of data processing when a controller does not have to evaluate level of risk because it has been classified as „high risk” processing e.g. processing on a large scale of special categories of data, processing with using new technologies. The methodology will include analysis of legal regulations e.g. GDPR, the Polish Act on the Protection of personal data. Moreover: ICO Guidelines and articles concerning risk based approach in GDPR. The main conclusion is that an appropriate risk assessment is a key to keeping data safe and avoiding financial penalties. On the one hand, this approach seems to be more equitable, not only for controllers or processors but also for data subjects, but on the other hand, it increases controllers’ uncertainties in the assessment which could have a direct impact on incorrect data protection and potential responsibility for infringement of regulation.

Keywords: general data protection regulation, personal data protection, privacy protection, risk based approach

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: Seyedmohammad Mousavian, Hanlu Fan, Quingliang Tang

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Climate change is emerging as a severe threat to our society, so businesses are expected to take actions to mitigate carbon emissions. However, the actions to be taken depend on managers’ perceptions of climate change risks. Yet, there is scant research on this issue, and understanding of the determinants of corporate perceptions of climate change is extremely limited. The purpose of this study is to close this gap by examining the relationship between perceptions of climate risk and firm-level and country-level factors. In this study, climate change risk captures physical, regulatory, and other risks, and we use data from European companies that participated in CDP from 2010 to 2017. This study reveals those perceptions of climate change risk are significantly positively associated with the environmental, social, and governance score, firm size, and membership in a carbon-intensive sector. In addition, we find that managers in firms operating in a geographic area that is sensitive to the consequences of global warming are more likely to perceive and formally recognize carbon-related risks in their CDP reports.

Keywords: carbon actions, CDP, climate change risk, risk perception

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Authors: S. U. Kunya, S. A. Mohammad

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Construction projects in Nigeria are characterized with risks emanating from delays and accompanying cost-overruns. The aim of the study was to identify and assess factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies in the execution of public construction project in North-East Nigeria. Data was collected with the aid of a well-structured questionnaire administered to three identified projects in the North-east. Data collected were analysed using the severity index. Findings revealed political involvement, selection of inexperienced contractors and lack of coordinated public sector strategy as the most severe factors constraining the utilization of risk management strategies. The study recommended that: formulation of laws to prevent negative political meddling in construction projects; selection of experienced, risk-informed contractors; and comprehensive risk assessment and planning on all public construction projects.

Keywords: factors, Nigeria, north-east, public projects, risk management, strategies, utilization

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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The majority of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on the rationale that the design, construction, operation, and financing of a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a single contractual framework. PPP project risks normally include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation for decades. Undoubtedly the most serious consequences of risks during the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are amongst the most broadly used scenarios in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change over the life cycle of a PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector normally has to cover all price distress from these risks. At least there is plenty evidence to suggest that price distress is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of construction risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies, and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: Public Private Partnership (PPP), Risk, Risk Pricing, System Dynamics (SD), construction price

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Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

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An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

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Authors: Zidane Abderrezzaq

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In contrast to recent successful developments in macro monetary policies, the modelling, measurement and management of systemic financial stability has remained problematical. Indeed, the focus of most effort has been on improving individual, rather than systemic, bank risk management; the Basel II objective has been to bring regulatory bank capital into line with the (sophisticated) banks’ assessment of their own economic capital. Even at the individual bank level there are concerns over appropriate diversification allowances, differing objectives of banks and regulators, the need for a buffer over regulatory minima, and the distinction between expected and unexpected losses (EL and UL). At the systemic level the quite complex and prescriptive content of Basel II raises dangers of ‘endogenous risk’ and procyclicality. Simulations suggest that this latter could be a serious problem. In an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tiering) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out.

Keywords: systemic stability, financial regulation, credit risk, systemic risk

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Authors: Wassamon Kun-Amornpong

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When a financial crisis occurs, there will be a law and regulatory reform in order to manage the turmoil and prevent a future crisis. One of the most important regulatory efforts to help cope with systemic risk and a financial crisis is the third version of the Basel Accord. Basel III has introduced some measures and tools (e.g., systemic risk buffer, countercyclical buffer, capital conservation buffer and liquidity risk) in order to mitigate systemic risk. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these measures in Basel III in adequately addressing the problem of contagious runs that can quickly spread throughout the financial system is questionable. This paper seeks to contribute to the knowledge regarding the role of the Basel Accords in mitigating systemic risk. The research question is to what extent the Basel Accords can help control systemic risk in the financial markets? The paper tackles this question by analysing the concept of systemic risk. It will then examine the weaknesses of the Basel Accords before and after the Global financial crisis in 2008. Finally, it will suggest some possible solutions in order to improve the Basel Accord. The rationale of the study is the fact that academic works on systemic risk and financial crises are largely studied from economic or financial perspective. There is comparatively little research from the legal and regulatory perspective. The finding of the paper is that there are some problems in all of the three pillars of the Basel Accords. With regards to Pillar I, the risk model is excessively complex while the benefits of its complexity are doubtful. Concerning Pillar II, the effectiveness of the risk-based supervision in preventing systemic risk still depends largely upon its design and implementation. Factors such as organizational culture of the regulator and the political context within which the risk-based supervision operates might be a barrier against the success of Pillar II. Meanwhile, Pillar III could not provide adequate market discipline as market participants do not always act in a rational way. In addition, the too-big-to-fail perception reduced the incentives of the market participants to monitor risks. There has been some development in resolution measure (e.g. TLAC and MREL) which might potentially help strengthen the incentive of the market participants to monitor risks. However, those measures have some weaknesses. The paper argues that if the weaknesses in the three pillars are resolved, it can be expected that the Basel Accord could contribute to the mitigation of systemic risk in a more significant way in the future.

Keywords: Basel accords, financial regulation, risk-based supervision, systemic risk

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Authors: Sharaf S. Omar

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In the current study, level and prevalence of deoxynivalenol (DON), aflatoxin B1 AFB1), zearalenone (ZEN), and ochratoxin A (OTA) in fried poultry eggs in Jordan was investigated. Poultry egg samples (n = 250) were collected. The level of DON, AFB1, ZEN and OTA in the white and yolk of poultry eggs was measured using LC-MS-MS. The health risk assessment was calculated using Margin of Exposures (MOEs) for AFB1 and OTA and hazard index (HI) for ZEN and DON. The highest prevalence in yolk and white of eggs was related to ZEN (96.56%) and OTA (97.44%), respectively. Also, the highest level in white and yolk was related to DON (1.07µg/kg) and DON (1.65 µg/kg), respectively. Level of DON in the yolk of eggs was significantly higher than white of eggs (P-value < 0.05). Risk assessment indicated that exposed population are at high risk of AFB1 (MOEs < 10,000) in fried poultry eggs.

Keywords: mycotoxins 2, aflatoxin b1, risk assessment, poultry egg

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Authors: Charuvan Kasemsap

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This research was studied in Bangnampriao District, Chachernsao Province, Thailand. The primary data relating to flooding, drought, and saline intrusion problem on agriculture were collected by surveying, focus group, and in-depth interview with agricultural officers, technical officers of irrigation department, and local government leader of Bangnampriao District. The likelihood and consequence of risk were determined the risk index by risk assessment matrix. In addition, the risk index and the total coping capacity scores were investigated the vulnerability index by vulnerability matrix. It was found that the high-risk drought and saline intrusion was dramatically along Bang Pakong River owing to the end destination of Chao Phraya Irrigation system of Central Thailand. This leads yearly the damage of rice paddy, mango tree, orchard, and fish pond. Therefore, some agriculture avoids rice growing during January to May, and also pumps fresh water from a canal into individual storage pond. However, Bangnampriao District will be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change. Monthly precipitations are expected to decrease in number; dry seasons are expected to be more in number and longer in duration. Thus, the risk and vulnerability of agriculture are also increasing. Adaptation strategies need to be put in place in order to enhance the resilience of the agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, bangnampriao, climate change, risk assessment

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Authors: Qisheng Hu, Jianglei Han, Yue Yang, My Hoa Ha

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When a company is considering purchasing software for commercial use, contract risk assessment is critical to identify risks to mitigate the potential adverse business impact, e.g., security, financial and regulatory risks. Contract risk assessment requires reviewers with specialized knowledge and time to evaluate the legal documents manually. Specifically, validating contracts for a software vendor requires the following steps: manual screening, interpreting legal documents, and extracting risk-prone segments. To automate the process, we proposed a framework to assist legal contract document risk identification, leveraging pre-trained deep learning models and natural language processing techniques. Given a set of pre-defined risk evaluation problems, our framework utilizes the pre-trained transformer-based models for question-answering to identify risk-prone sections in a contract. Furthermore, the question-answering model encodes the concatenated question-contract text and predicts the start and end position for clause extraction. Due to the limited labelled dataset for training, we leveraged transfer learning by fine-tuning the models with the CUAD dataset to enhance the model. On a dataset comprising 287 contract documents and 2000 labelled samples, our best model achieved an F1 score of 0.687.

Keywords: contract risk assessment, NLP, transfer learning, question answering

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Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

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This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

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Authors: Naira Ghambaryan, Gagik Hakobyan

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Purpose:The study was to evaluate the survival rate of short implants (5-6 mm) functionalized with UV radiation placed in the posterior segments of the atrophied maxilla. Materials and Methods:The study included 47 patients with unilateral/bilateral missing teeth and vertical atrophy of the posterior maxillary area. A total of 64 short UV-functionalized implants and 62 standard implants over 10 mm in length were placed in patients. The clinical indices included the following parameters: ISQБ MBL, OHIP-G scale. Results: For short implants, the median ISQ at placement was 62.2 for primary stability, and the median ISQ at 5 months was 69.6 ISQ. For standart implant, the mean ISQ at placement was 64.3 ISQ, and ISQ after 5 months was 71.6 ISQ. Аfter 6 months mean MBL short implants 0.87 mm, after 1 year, 1.13 mm, after 5 year was 1.48 mm. Аfter 6 months, mean MBL standard implants 0.84 mm, after 1 year, 1.24 mm, after 5 year was 1.58 mm. Mean OHIP-G scores -patients satisfaction with the implant at 4.8 ± 0.3, satisfaction with the operation 4.6 ± 0.4; satisfaction with prosthetics 4.7 ± 0.5. Cumulative 5-year short implants rates was 96.7%, standard implants was 97.4%, and prosthesis cumulative survival rate was 97.2%. Conclusions: Short implants with ultraviolet functionalization for prosthetic rehabilitation of the posterior resorbed maxilla region is a reliable, reasonable alternative to sinus lift, demonstrating fewer complications, satisfactory survival of a 5-year follow-up period, and reducing the number of additional surgical interventions and postoperative complications.

Keywords: short implant, ultraviolet functionalization, atrophic posterior maxilla, prosthodontic rehabilitation

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Authors: Hannes Koester

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Driven by difficult market conditions and increasing regulations, many banks are making the strategic decision to restructure their portfolio by divesting several business segments. Using a unique dataset of 727 portfolio restructuring announcements by 161 international listed banks over the period 1999 to 2015, we investigate the impact of restructuring measurements on the stock performance as well as on the banks’ profitability and risk. Employing the event study methodology, we detect positive stock market reactions on the announcement of restructuring measurements. These positive stock market reactions indicate that shareholders reward banks’ specialization activities. However, the results of the system GMM regressions show a negative relation between restructuring measurements and banks’ return on assets and a positive relation towards the individual and systemic risk of banks. These empirical results indicate that there is no guarantee that portfolio restructurings will result in a more profitable and less risky institution.

Keywords: bank performance, bank risk, divestiture, restructuring, systemic risk

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

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Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: perceived risk, online contracts, Saudi Arabia, consumer protection

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability

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Authors: David Glew, Felix Thomas, Matthew Brooke-Peat

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Improving the thermal performance of homes is seen as an essential step in achieving climate change, fuel security, fuel poverty targets. One of the most effective thermal retrofits is to insulate solid walls. However, it has been observed that applying insulation to the internal face of solid walls reduces the surface temperature of the inner wall leaf, which may introduce condensation risk and may interrupt seasonal moisture accumulation and dissipation. This research quantifies the extent to which the risk of condensation and moisture accumulation in the wall increases (which can increase the risk of timber rot) following the installation of six different types of internal wall insulation. In so doing, it compares how risk is affected by both the thermal resistance, thickness, and breathability of the insulation. Thermal bridging, surface temperatures, condensation risk, and moisture accumulation are evaluated using hygrothermal simulation software before and after the thermal upgrades. The research finds that installing internal wall insulation will always introduce some risk of condensation and moisture. However, it identifies that risks were present prior to insulation and that breathable materials and insulation with lower resistance have lower risks than alternative insulation options. The implications of this may be that building standards that encourage the enhanced thermal performance of solid walls may be introducing moisture risks into homes.

Keywords: condensation risk, hygrothermal simulation, internal wall insulation, thermal bridging

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Authors: Lagnajeet Mohanty, Mohnish Mishra, Pratham Tapdiya, Himanshu Sekhar Nayak, Swetapadma Singh

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In the era of global interconnectedness, effective risk assessment and management are critical for organizational resilience. This review explores the integration of machine learning (ML) into risk processes, examining its transformative potential and the challenges it presents. The literature reveals ML's success in sectors like consumer credit, demonstrating enhanced predictive accuracy, adaptability, and potential cost savings. However, ethical considerations, interpretability issues, and the demand for skilled practitioners pose limitations. Looking forward, the study identifies future research scopes, including refining ethical frameworks, advancing interpretability techniques, and fostering interdisciplinary collaborations. The synthesis of limitations and future directions highlights the dynamic landscape of ML in risk management, urging stakeholders to navigate challenges innovatively. This abstract encapsulates the evolving discourse on ML's role in shaping proactive and effective risk management strategies in our interconnected and unpredictable global landscape.

Keywords: machine learning, risk assessment, ethical considerations, financial inclusion

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Authors: Omar Nouri, Wafa Mnejja, Fatma Dhouib, Syrine Zouari, Wicem Siala, Ilhem Charfeddine, Afef Khanfir, Leila Farhat, Nejla Fourati, Jamel Daoud

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Purpose and Objective: Intensity modulated radiation (IMRT) technique, associated with induction chemotherapy (IC) and/or concomitant chemotherapy (CC), is actually the recommended treatment modality for nasopharyngeal carcinomas (NPC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the therapeutic results and the patterns of relapse with this treatment protocol. Material and methods: A retrospective monocentric study of 145 patients with NPC treated between June 2016 and July 2021. All patients received IMRT with integrated simultaneous boost (SIB) of 33 daily fractions at a dose of 69.96 Gy for high-risk volume, 60 Gy for intermediate risk volume and 54 Gy for low-risk volume. The high-risk volume dose was 66.5 Gy in children. Survival analysis was performed according to the Kaplan-Meier method, and the Log-rank test was used to compare factors that may influence survival. Results: Median age was 48 years (11-80) with a sex ratio of 2.9. One hundred-twenty tumors (82.7%) were classified as stages III-IV according to the 2017 UICC TNM classification. Ten patients (6.9%) were metastatic at diagnosis. One hundred-thirty-five patient (93.1%) received IC, 104 of which (77%) were TPF-based (taxanes, cisplatin and 5 fluoro-uracil). One hundred-thirty-eight patient (95.2%) received CC, mostly cisplatin in 134 cases (97%). After a median follow-up of 50 months [22-82], 46 patients (31.7%) had a relapse: 12 (8.2%) experienced local and/or regional relapse after a median of 18 months [6-43], 29 (20%) experienced distant relapse after a median of 9 months [2-24] and 5 patients (3.4%) had both. Thirty-five patients (24.1%) died, including 5 (3.4%) from a cause other than their cancer. Three-year overall survival (OS), cancer specific survival, disease free survival, metastasis free survival and loco-regional free survival were respectively 78.1%, 81.3%, 67.8%, 74.5% and 88.1%. Anatomo-clinic factors predicting OS were age > 50 years (88.7 vs. 70.5%; p=0.004), diabetes history (81.2 vs. 66.7%; p=0.027), UICC N classification (100 vs. 95 vs. 77.5 vs. 68.8% respectively for N0, N1, N2 and N3; p=0.008), the practice of a lymph node biopsy (84.2 vs. 57%; p=0.05), and UICC TNM stages III-IV (93.8 vs. 73.6% respectively for stage I-II vs. III-IV; p=0.044). Therapeutic factors predicting OS were a number of CC courses (less than 4 courses: 65.8 vs. 86%; p=0.03, less than 5 courses: 71.5 vs. 89%; p=0.041), a weight loss > 10% during treatment (84.1 vs. 60.9%; p=0.021) and a total cumulative cisplatin dose, including IC and CC, < 380 mg/m² (64.4 vs. 87.6%; p=0.003). Radiotherapy delay and total duration did not significantly affect OS. No grade 3-4 late side effects were noted in the evaluable 127 patients (87.6%). The most common toxicity was dry mouth which was grade 2 in 47 cases (37%) and grade 1 in 55 cases (43.3%).Conclusion: IMRT for nasopharyngeal carcinoma granted a high loco-regional control rate for patients during the last five years. However, distant relapses remain frequent and conditionate the prognosis. We identified many anatomo-clinic and therapeutic prognosis factors. Therefore, high-risk patients require a more aggressive therapeutic approach, such as radiotherapy dose escalation or adding adjuvant chemotherapy.

Keywords: therapeutic results, prognostic factors, intensity-modulated radiotherapy, nasopharyngeal carcinoma

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Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge

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In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.

Keywords: client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis

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Authors: Nuruddeen Usman, Usman Mohammed Gidado, Muhammad Ahmad Ibrahim

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Construction industry is one of the sectors that are eyeing adoption of ICT for its development due to the advancement in technology. Though, many manufacturing sectors had been using it, but construction industry was left behind, especially in the developing nation like Nigeria. On account of that, the objective of this study is to conceptually and quantitatively synthesise whether the slow adoption of ICT by the construction industries can be attributable to cybercrime threats. The result of the investigation found that, the risk of cybercrime, and lack of adequate cyber security policies that can enforce and punish defaulters are among the things that hinder ICT adoption of the Nigerian construction industries. Therefore, there is need for the nations to educate their citizens on cybercrime risk, and to establish cybercrime police units that can be monitoring and controlling all online communications.

Keywords: construction industry, cybercrime, information and communication technology adoption, risk

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.

Keywords: human vulnerabilities, human security, immediate-inert, material-immaterial, timespace

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Authors: Michael Kenomore, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah, Hom Dhakal

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Shale gas reservoirs have been of greater importance compared to shale oil reservoirs since 2009 and with the current nature of the oil market, understanding the technical and economic performance of shale gas reservoirs is of importance. Using the Barnett shale as a case study, an economic model was developed to quantify the effect of finding and development costs and gas prices on the basins in the Barnett shale using net present value as an evaluation parameter. A rate of return of 20% and a payback period of 60 months or less was used as the investment hurdle in the model. The Barnett was split into four basins (Strawn Basin, Ouachita Folded Belt, Forth-worth Syncline and Bend-arch Basin) with analysis conducted on each of the basin to provide a holistic outlook. The dataset consisted of only horizontal wells that started production from 2008 to at most 2015 with 1835 wells coming from the strawn basin, 137 wells from the Ouachita folded belt, 55 wells from the bend-arch basin and 724 wells from the forth-worth syncline. The data was analyzed initially on Microsoft Excel to determine the estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR). The range of EUR from each basin were loaded in the Palisade Risk software and a log normal distribution typical of Barnett shale wells was fitted to the dataset. Monte Carlo simulation was then carried out over a 1000 iterations to obtain a cumulative distribution plot showing the probabilistic distribution of EUR for each basin. From the cumulative distribution plot, the P10, P50 and P90 EUR values for each basin were used in the economic model. Gas production from an individual well with a EUR similar to the calculated EUR was chosen and rescaled to fit the calculated EUR values for each basin at the respective percentiles i.e. P10, P50 and P90. The rescaled production was entered into the economic model to determine the effect of the finding and development cost and gas price on the net present value (10% discount rate/year) as well as also determine the scenario that satisfied the proposed investment hurdle. The finding and development costs used in this paper (assumed to consist only of the drilling and completion costs) were £1 million, £2 million and £4 million while the gas price was varied from $2/MCF-$13/MCF based on Henry Hub spot prices from 2008-2015. One of the major findings in this study was that wells in the bend-arch basin were least economic, higher gas prices are needed in basins containing non-core counties and 90% of the Barnet shale wells were not economic at all finding and development costs irrespective of the gas price in all the basins. This study helps to determine the percentage of wells that are economic at different range of costs and gas prices, determine the basins that are most economic and the wells that satisfy the investment hurdle.

Keywords: shale gas, Barnett shale, unconventional gas, estimated ultimate recoverable

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Authors: Lejla Sunagic

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The aim of the manuscript is to further the understanding of risky decision-making in the context of forced and irregular migration. The empirical evidence is collected through interviews with Syrian refugees who arrived in Europe via irregular pathways. Analytically, it has been approached through the juxtaposition between risk perception and the notion of desire. As different frameworks have been developed to address differences in risk perception, the common thread was the understanding that individual risk-taking has been addressed in terms of benefits outweighing risks. However, this framework cannot explain a big risk an individual takes because of an underprivileged position and due to a lack of positive alternatives, termed as risk-taking from vulnerability. The accounts of the field members of this study that crossed the sea in rubber boats to arrive in Europe make an empirical fit to such a postulate by reporting that the risk they have taken was not the choice but the only coping strategy. However, the vulnerability argument falls short of explaining why the interviewees, thinking retrospectively, find the risky journey they have taken to be worth it, while they would strongly advise others to restrain from taking such a huge risk. This inconsistency has been addressed by adding the notion of desire to migrate to the elements of risk perception. Desire, as a subjective experience, was what made the risk appear smaller in cost-benefit analysis at the time of decision-making of those who have realized migration. However, when they reflect on others in the context of potential migration via the same pathway, the interviewees addressed the others’ lack of capacity to avoid the same obstacles that they themselves were able to circumvent while omitting to reflect on others’ desire to migrate. Thus, in the risk-benefit analysis performed for others, the risk remains unblurred and tips over the benefits, given the inability to take into account the desire of others. If desire, as the transformative potential of migration, is taken out of the cost-benefit analysis of irregular migration, refugees might not have taken the risky journey. By casting the theoretical argument in the language of configuration, the study is filling in the gap of knowledge on the combination of migration drivers and the way they interact and produce migration outcomes.

Keywords: refugees, risk perception, desire, irregular migration

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Authors: Jongsung Kim, Daegun Han, Myungjin Lee, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters are gradually increasing due to climate change. Especially in Korea, large-scale damage caused by heavy rainfall frequently occurs due to rapid urbanization. Therefore, this study proposed a Heavy rain Damage Risk Index (HDRI) using PSR (Pressure – State - Response) structure for heavy rain risk assessment. We constructed pressure index, state index, and response index for the risk assessment of each local government in Gyeonggi-do province, and the evaluation indices were determined by principal component analysis. The indices were standardized using the Z-score method then HDRIs were obtained for 31 local governments in the province. The HDRI is categorized into three classes, say, the safest class is 1st class. As the results, the local governments of the 1st class were 15, 2nd class 7, and 3rd class 9. From the study, we were able to identify the risk class due to the heavy rainfall for each local government. It will be useful to develop the heavy rainfall prediction function by risk class, and this was performed in this issue. Also, this risk class could be used for the decision making for efficient disaster management. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2017R1A2B3005695).

Keywords: natural disaster, heavy rain risk assessment, HDRI, PSR

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Authors: Narumon Piaseu

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This survey research was aimed to describe and compare consumption behavior of health risk food among students in Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Sample included 400 undergraduate students enrolled in the first semester of 2008 academic year. Data were collected by using self reported questionnaire developed by the researcher. Data were then analyzed by descriptive statistics including frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and inferential statistics including independent t-test, and Oneway ANOVA. Results revealed that most of the sample were women (67%), enrolled in social related programs (74%). Approximately half of them (45.5%) stayed in dormitory. The mean of monthly income was 5,164 Baht and daily food expenditure was 114.55 Baht. Majority of them (83%) had ready-to-eat food. A major factor influencing their food selection was their parents (61%). A main reason for their food selection was food that looks good (70.75%). Almost half of them (46.25%) had heavy exercise less than 3 times per week. Regarding knowledge on health risk food, 43.5% of the sample had good knowledge. The followings were moderate (41%) and poor (41%). Most of the sample (60.75%) had consumption behavior at low risk. The following was at moderate risk (37.25%). Only 2% were at high risk. Among the sample, consumption behavior of health risk food were significantly different in years of study (F = 3.168, p = .024), daily food expenditure (F = 8.950, p <.001), and knowledge on health risk food (F = 37.856, p <.001), while no significant difference in consumption behavior of health risk food was found in those with a difference in gender, program of study, living place, and monthly income. Results indicate the importance of providing knowledge regarding health risk food for students and their parents in order to promote appropriate food consumption behavior among the students.

Keywords: food consumption, risky behavior, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, health risk

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Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

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This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, stock return, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran stock exchange, TSE

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Authors: Mathias Linden, André Schneider, Harald F. O. von Korflesch

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The risk of train accidents is an ongoing concern for railway organizations, governments, insurance companies and other depended sectors. Safety technologies are installed to reduce and to prevent potential damages of train accidents. Since the budgetary for the safety of railway organizations is limited, it is necessary not only to achieve a high availability and high safety standard but also to be cost effective. Therefore, an economic assessment of safety technologies is fundamental to create an accurate risk analysis. In order to conduct an economical assessment of a railway safety technology and a quantification of the costs of the accident causes, the Global Railway Accident Database & Evaluation (GRADE) has been developed. The aim of this paper is to describe the structure of this accident database and to show how it can be used for risk analyses. A number of risk analysis methods, such as the probabilistic safety assessment method (PSA), was used to demonstrate this accident database’s different possibilities of risk analysis. In conclusion, it can be noted that these analyses would not be as accurate without GRADE. The information gathered in the accident database was not available in this way before. Our findings are relevant for railway operators, safety technology suppliers, assurances, governments and other concerned railway organizations.

Keywords: accident causes, accident costs, accident database, global railway accident database & evaluation, GRADE, probabilistic safety assessment, PSA, railway accidents, risk analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 359