Search results for: uncertainty analysis.

Authors: F. Sangiorgio, J. Silfwerbrand, G. Mancini

Abstract:

Geometric and mechanical properties all influence the resistance of RC structures and may, in certain combination of property values, increase the risk of a brittle failure of the whole system. This paper presents a statistical and probabilistic investigation on the resistance of RC beams designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8, and subjected to multiple failure modes, under both the natural variation of material properties and the uncertainty associated with cross-section and transverse reinforcement geometry. A full probabilistic model based on JCSS Probabilistic Model Code is derived. Different beams are studied through material nonlinear analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. The resistance model is consistent with Eurocode 2. Both a multivariate statistical evaluation and the data clustering analysis of outcomes are then performed. Results show that the ultimate load behaviour of RC beams subjected to flexural and shear failure modes seems to be mainly influenced by the combination of the mechanical properties of both longitudinal reinforcement and stirrups, and the tensile strength of concrete, of which the latter appears to affect the overall response of the system in a nonlinear way. The model uncertainty of the resistance model used in the analysis plays undoubtedly an important role in interpreting results.

Keywords: Modelling, Monte Carlo Simulations, Probabilistic Models, Data Clustering, Reinforced Concrete Members, Structural Design.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2073

Authors: Benedetto Manganelli, Beniamino Murgante

Abstract:

The distinction among urban, periurban and rural areas represents a classical example of uncertainty in land classification. Satellite images, geostatistical analysis and all kinds of spatial data are very useful in urban sprawl studies, but it is important to define precise rules in combining great amounts of data to build complex knowledge about territory. Rough Set theory may be a useful method to employ in this field. It represents a different mathematical approach to uncertainty by capturing the indiscernibility. Two different phenomena can be indiscernible in some contexts and classified in the same way when combining available information about them. This approach has been applied in a case of study, comparing the results achieved with both Map Algebra technique and Spatial Rough Set. The study case area, Potenza Province, is particularly suitable for the application of this theory, because it includes 100 municipalities with different number of inhabitants and morphologic features.

Keywords: Land Classification, Map Algebra, Periurban Fringe, Rough Set, Urban Planning, Urban Sprawl.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1684

Authors: Ali Akbar Sadat Asl

Abstract:

Diagnosis and deciding about diseases in medical fields is facing innate uncertainty which can affect the whole process of treatment. This decision is made based on expert knowledge and the way in which an expert interprets the patient's condition, and the interpretation of the various experts from the patient's condition may be different. Fuzzy logic can provide mathematical modeling for many concepts, variables, and systems that are unclear and ambiguous and also it can provide a framework for reasoning, inference, control, and decision making in conditions of uncertainty. In systems with high uncertainty and high complexity, fuzzy logic is a suitable method for modeling. In this paper, we use type-2 fuzzy logic for uncertainty modeling that is in diagnosis of leukemia. The proposed system uses an indirect-direct approach and consists of two stages: In the first stage, the inference of blood test state is determined. In this step, we use an indirect approach where the rules are extracted automatically by implementing a clustering approach. In the second stage, signs of leukemia, duration of disease until its progress and the output of the first stage are combined and the final diagnosis of the system is obtained. In this stage, the system uses a direct approach and final diagnosis is determined by the expert. The obtained results show that the type-2 fuzzy expert system can diagnose leukemia with the average accuracy about 97%.

Keywords: Expert system, leukemia, medical diagnosis, type-2 fuzzy logic.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 975

Authors: Abdolsalam Ghaderi

Abstract:

In this paper, the single-depot capacitated location-routing problem under uncertainty is presented. The problem aims to find the optimal location of a single depot and the routing of vehicles to serve the customers when the parameters may change under different circumstances. This problem has many applications, especially in the area of supply chain management and distribution systems. To get closer to real-world situations, travel time of vehicles, the fixed cost of vehicles usage and customers’ demand are considered as a source of uncertainty. A combined approach including robust optimization and stochastic programming was presented to deal with the uncertainty in the problem at hand. For this purpose, a mixed integer programming model is developed and a heuristic algorithm based on Variable Neighborhood Search(VNS) is presented to solve the model. Finally, the computational results are presented and future research directions are discussed.

Keywords: Location-routing problem, robust optimization, Stochastic Programming, variable neighborhood search.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 700

Authors: Saima Ali, Pathamanathan Rajeev, Imteaz A. Monzur

Abstract:

In this paper, a brief review of the corrosion mechanism in buried pipe and modes of failure is provided together with the available corrosion models. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of corrosion model parameters on the remaining life estimation. Further, the probabilistic analysis is performed to propagate the uncertainty in the corrosion model on the estimation of the renaming life of the pipe. Finally, the comparison among the corrosion models on the basis of the remaining life estimation will be provided to improve the renewal plan.

Keywords: Corrosion, pit depth, sensitivity analysis, exposure period.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1684

Authors: Nedjima Mouhoubi, Souad Sassi Boudemagh

Abstract:

In this paper, we will try to demonstrate the importance of the project approach in the urban to deal with uncertainty, the importance of the involvement of all stakeholders in the urban project process and that the absence of an actor can lead to project failure but also the importance of the urban project management. These points are handled through the following questions: Does the urban adhere to the theory of complexity? Does the project approach bring hope and solution to make urban planning "sustainable"? How converging visions of actors for the same project? Is the management of urban project the solution to support the urban project approach?

Keywords: Strategic planning, project, urban project stakeholders, management.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1239

Authors: H. Ashrafi, S. Ebrahimi, H. Kamalzadeh

Abstract:

With the development of business competition, it is important for healthcare providers to improve their service qualities. In order to improve service quality of a clinic, four important dimensions are defined: tangibles, responsiveness, empathy, and reliability. Moreover, there are several service stages in hospitals such as financial screening and examination. One of the most challenging limitations for improving service quality is budget which impressively affects the service quality. In this paper, we present an approach to address budget uncertainty and provide guidelines for service resource allocation. In this paper, a service quality improvement approach is proposed which can be adopted to multistage service processes to improve service quality, while controlling the costs. A multi-objective function based on the importance of each area and dimension is defined to link operational variables to service quality dimensions. The results demonstrate that our approach is not ultra-conservative and it shows the actual condition very well. Moreover, it is shown that different strategies can affect the number of employees in different stages.

Keywords: Service quality assessment, healthcare resource allocation, robust optimization, budget uncertainty.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1015

Authors: R.K.Tuli

Abstract:

In the present communication, we have studied different variations in the entropy measures in the different states of queueing processes. In case of steady state queuing process, it has been shown that as the arrival rate increases, the uncertainty increases whereas in the case of non-steady birth-death process, it is shown that the uncertainty varies differently. In this pattern, it first increases and attains its maximum value and then with the passage of time, it decreases and attains its minimum value.

Keywords: Entropy, Birth-death process, M/G/1 system, G/M/1system, Steady state, Non-steady state

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1550

Authors: Daniel Stamate

Abstract:

The paper presents an approach for handling uncertain information in deductive databases using multivalued logics. Uncertainty means that database facts may be assigned logical values other than the conventional ones - true and false. The logical values represent various degrees of truth, which may be combined and propagated by applying the database rules. A corresponding multivalued database semantics is defined. We show that it extends successful conventional semantics as the well-founded semantics, and has a polynomial time data complexity.

Keywords: Reasoning under uncertainty, multivalued logics, deductive databases, logic programs, multivalued semantics.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1304

Authors: Ali Ameur Haj Salah, Tarek Garna, Hassani Messaoud

Abstract:

This paper attempts to define the validity domain of LSDP (Loop Shaping Design Procedure) controller system, by determining the suitable uncertainty region, so that linear system be stable. Indeed the LSDP controller cannot provide stability for any perturbed system. For this, we will use the gap metric tool that is introduced into the control literature for studying robustness properties of feedback systems with uncertainty. A 2nd order electric linear system example is given to define the validity domain of LSDP controller and effectiveness gap metric.

Keywords: LSDP, Gap metric, Robust Control.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1469

Authors: A. Pedišius, V. Janušas, A. Bertašienė

Abstract:

The paper depicts air velocity values, reproduced by laser Doppler anemometer (LDA) and ultrasonic anemometer (UA), relations with calculated ones from flow rate measurements using the gas meter which calibration uncertainty is ± (0.15 – 0.30) %. Investigation had been performed in channel installed in aerodynamical facility used as a part of national standard of air velocity. Relations defined in a research let us confirm the LDA and UA for air velocity reproduction to be the most advantageous measures. The results affirm ultrasonic anemometer to be reliable and favourable instrument for measurement of mean velocity or control of velocity stability in the velocity range of 0.05 m/s – 10 (15) m/s when the LDA used. The main aim of this research is to investigate low velocity regularities, starting from 0.05 m/s, including region of turbulent, laminar and transitional air flows. Theoretical and experimental results and brief analysis of it are given in the paper. Maximum and mean velocity relations for transitional air flow having unique distribution are represented. Transitional flow having distinctive and different from laminar and turbulent flow characteristics experimentally have not yet been analysed.

Keywords: Laser Doppler anemometer, ultrasonic anemometer, air flow velocities, transitional flow regime, measurement, uncertainty.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1958

Authors: Nitin Singh, Meng Ling, Talha Ahmed, Tianxia Zhao, Reinier van de Pol

Abstract:

We propose the use of Reinforcement Learning (RL) as a viable alternative for optimizing supply chain management, particularly in scenarios with stochasticity in product demands. RL’s adaptability to changing conditions and its demonstrated success in diverse fields of sequential decision-making make it a promising candidate for addressing supply chain problems. We investigate the impact of demand fluctuations in a multi-product supply chain system and develop RL agents with learned generalizable policies. We provide experimentation details for training RL agents and a statistical analysis of the results. We study generalization ability of RL agents for different demand uncertainty scenarios and observe superior performance compared to the agents trained with fixed demand curves. The proposed methodology has the potential to lead to cost reduction and increased profit for companies dealing with frequent inventory movement between supply and demand nodes.

Keywords: Inventory Management, Reinforcement Learning, Supply Chain Optimization, Uncertainty.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 260

Authors: A. Anastasopoulou, A. Kolios, T. Somorin, A. Sowale, Y. Jiang, B. Fidalgo, A. Parker, L. Williams, M. Collins, E. J. McAdam, S. Tyrrel

Abstract:

Developing countries are nowadays confronted with great challenges related to domestic sanitation services in view of the imminent water scarcity. Contemporary sanitation technologies established in these countries are likely to pose health risks unless waste management standards are followed properly. This paper provides a solution to sustainable sanitation with the development of an innovative toilet system, called Nano Membrane Toilet (NMT), which has been developed by Cranfield University and sponsored by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The particular technology converts human faeces into energy through gasification and provides treated wastewater from urine through membrane filtration. In order to evaluate the environmental profile of the NMT system, a deterministic life cycle assessment (LCA) has been conducted in SimaPro software employing the Ecoinvent v3.3 database. The particular study has determined the most contributory factors to the environmental footprint of the NMT system. However, as sensitivity analysis has identified certain critical operating parameters for the robustness of the LCA results, adopting a stochastic approach to the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) will comprehensively capture the input data uncertainty and enhance the credibility of the LCA outcome. For that purpose, Monte Carlo simulations, in combination with an artificial neural network (ANN) model, have been conducted for the input parameters of raw material, produced electricity, NO_X emissions, amount of ash and transportation of fertilizer. The given analysis has provided the distribution and the confidence intervals of the selected impact categories and, in turn, more credible conclusions are drawn on the respective LCIA (Life Cycle Impact Assessment) profile of NMT system. Last but not least, the specific study will also yield essential insights into the methodological framework that can be adopted in the environmental impact assessment of other complex engineering systems subject to a high level of input data uncertainty.

Keywords: Sanitation systems, nano membrane toilet, LCA, stochastic uncertainty analysis, Monte Carlo Simulations, artificial neural network.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 930

Authors: Fares Innal, Yves Dutuit, Mourad Chebila

Abstract:

The object of this work is the probabilistic performance evaluation of safety instrumented systems (SIS), i.e. the average probability of dangerous failure on demand (PFD_avg) and the average frequency of failure (PFH), taking into account the uncertainties related to the different parameters that come into play: failure rate (λ), common cause failure proportion (β), diagnostic coverage (DC)... This leads to an accurate and safe assessment of the safety integrity level (SIL) inherent to the safety function performed by such systems. This aim is in keeping with the requirement of the IEC 61508 standard with respect to handling uncertainty. To do this, we propose an approach that combines (1) Monte Carlo simulation and (2) fuzzy sets. Indeed, the first method is appropriate where representative statistical data are available (using pdf of the relating parameters), while the latter applies in the case characterized by vague and subjective information (using membership function). The proposed approach is fully supported with a suitable computer code.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets, Monte Carlo simulation, Safety instrumented system, Safety integrity level.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2736

Authors: Sarra Ben Hariz, Zied Elouedi, Khaled Mellouli

Abstract:

The belief K-modes method (BKM) approach is a new clustering technique handling uncertainty in the attribute values of objects in both the cluster construction task and the classification one. Like the standard version of this method, the BKM results depend on the chosen initial modes. So, one selection method of initial modes is developed, in this paper, aiming at improving the performances of the BKM approach. Experiments with several sets of real data show that by considered the developed selection initial modes method, the clustering algorithm produces more accurate results.

Keywords: Clustering, Uncertainty, Belief function theory, Belief K-modes Method, Initial modes selection.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1773

Authors: Madhukar Nagare, Pankaj Dutta

Abstract:

Inventory decisional environment of short life-cycle products is full of uncertainties arising from randomness and fuzziness of input parameters like customer demand requiring modeling under hybrid uncertainty. Prior inventory models incorporating fuzzy demand have unfortunately ignored stochastic variation of demand. This paper determines an unambiguous optimal order quantity from a set of n fuzzy observations in a newsvendor inventory setting in presence of fuzzy random variable demand capturing both fuzzy perception and randomness of customer demand. The stress of this paper is in providing solution procedure that attains optimality in two steps with demand information availability in linguistic phrases leading to fuzziness along with stochastic variation. The first step of solution procedure identifies and prefers one best fuzzy opinion out of all expert opinions and the second step determines optimal order quantity from the selected event that maximizes profit. The model and solution procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

Keywords: Fuzzy expected value, Fuzzy random demand, Hybrid uncertainty, Optimal order quantity, Single-period inventory

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1974

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, a neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis method is proposed to select stealth fighter aircraft. Neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis methods are used to analyze the neutrosophic environment and give results under uncertainty and incompleteness. Neutrosophic numbers are used to evaluate alternatives over a set of evaluation criteria in decision making problems. Finally, the proposed model is applied to a practical decision problem for selecting stealth fighter aircraft.

Keywords: neutrosophic sets, multiple criteria decision making analysis, stealth fighter aircraft, aircraft selection, MCDMA, SVNNs

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 526

Authors: Helene Le Cadre

Abstract:

Three service providers in competition, try to optimize their quality of service / content level and their service access price. But, they have to deal with uncertainty on the consumers- preferences. To reduce their uncertainty, they have the opportunity to buy information and to build alliances. We determine the Shapley value which is a fair way to allocate the grand coalition-s revenue between the service providers. Then, we identify the values of β (consumers- sensitivity coefficient to the quality of service / contents) for which allocating the grand coalition-s revenue using the Shapley value guarantees the system stability. For other values of β, we prove that it is possible for the regulator to impose a per-period interest rate maximizing the market coverage under equal allocation rules.

Keywords: Alliance, Shapley value, Stability, Repeated game, Interest rate.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1218

Authors: Xinde Li, Xinhan Huang, Min Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, a new method of information fusion – DSmT (Dezert and Smarandache Theory) is introduced to apply to managing and dealing with the uncertain information from robot map building. Here we build grid map form sonar sensors and laser range finder (LRF). The uncertainty mainly comes from sonar sensors and LRF. Aiming to the uncertainty in static environment, we propose Classic DSm (DSmC) model for sonar sensors and laser range finder, and construct the general basic belief assignment function (gbbaf) respectively. Generally speaking, the evidence sources are unreliable in physical system, so we must consider the discounting theory before we apply DSmT. At last, Pioneer II mobile robot serves as a simulation experimental platform. We build 3D grid map of belief layout, then mainly compare the effect of building map using DSmT and DST. Through this simulation experiment, it proves that DSmT is very successful and valid, especially in dealing with highly conflicting information. In short, this study not only finds a new method for building map under static environment, but also supplies with a theory foundation for us to further apply Hybrid DSmT (DSmH) to dynamic unknown environment and multi-robots- building map together.

Keywords: Map building, DSmT, DST, uncertainty, information fusion.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1898

Authors: Okay Gunes

Abstract:

In this article, a new method is proposed for the measuring of well-being inequality through a model composed of superimposing satisfaction waves. The displacement of households’ satisfactory state (i.e. satisfaction) is defined in a satisfaction string. The duration of the satisfactory state for a given period is measured in order to determine the relationship between utility and total satisfactory time, itself dependent on the density and tension of each satisfaction string. Thus, individual cardinal total satisfaction values are computed by way of a one-dimensional form for scalar sinusoidal (harmonic) moving wave function, using satisfaction waves with varying amplitudes and frequencies which allow us to measure wellbeing inequality. One advantage to using satisfaction waves is the ability to show that individual utility and consumption amounts would probably not commute; hence, it is impossible to measure or to know simultaneously the values of these observables from the dataset. Thus, we crystallize the problem by using a Heisenberg-type uncertainty resolution for self-adjoint economic operators. We propose to eliminate any estimation bias by correlating the standard deviations of selected economic operators; this is achieved by replacing the aforementioned observed uncertainties with households’ perceived uncertainties (i.e. corrected standard deviations) obtained through the logarithmic psychophysical law proposed by Weber and Fechner.

Keywords: Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, superimposing satisfaction waves, Weber–Fechner law, well-being inequality.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1994

Authors: Sukhveer Singh, Sandeep Singh

Abstract:

A bi-objective fuzzy transportation problem with the objectives to minimize the total fuzzy cost and fuzzy time of transportation without according priorities to them is considered. To the best of our knowledge, there is no method in the literature to find efficient solutions of the bi-objective transportation problem under uncertainty. In this paper, a bi-objective transportation problem in an uncertain environment has been formulated. An algorithm has been proposed to find efficient solutions of the bi-objective transportation problem under uncertainty. The proposed algorithm avoids the degeneracy and gives the optimal solution faster than other existing algorithms for the given uncertain transportation problem.

Keywords: Transportation problem, efficient solution, ranking function, fuzzy transportation problem.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1309

Authors: I. Khutsishvili, G. Sirbiladze, B. Ghvaberidze

Abstract:

This work proposes a fuzzy methodology to support the investment decisions. While choosing among competitive investment projects, the methodology makes ranking of projects using the new aggregation OWA operator – AsPOWA, presented in the environment of possibility uncertainty. For numerical evaluation of the weighting vector associated with the AsPOWA operator the mathematical programming problem is constructed. On the basis of the AsPOWA operator the projects’ group ranking maximum criteria is constructed. The methodology also allows making the most profitable investments into several of the project using the method developed by the authors for discrete possibilistic bicriteria problems. The article provides an example of the investment decision-making that explains the work of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Expert evaluations, investment decision making, OWA operator, possibility uncertainty.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1985

Authors: Farag Azzedin, Ahmad Ridha, Ali Rizvi

Abstract:

Trust management is one of the drawbacks in Peer-to-Peer (P2P) system. Lack of centralized control makes it difficult to control the behavior of the peers. Reputation system is one approach to provide trust assessment in P2P system. In this paper, we use fuzzy logic to model trust in a P2P environment. Our trust model combines first-hand (direct experience) and second-hand (reputation)information to allow peers to represent and reason with uncertainty regarding other peers' trustworthiness. Fuzzy logic can help in handling the imprecise nature and uncertainty of trust. Linguistic labels are used to enable peers assign a trust level intuitively. Our fuzzy trust model is flexible such that inference rules are used to weight first-hand and second-hand accordingly.

Keywords: P2P Systems; Trust, Reputation, Fuzzy Logic.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2103

Authors: Rami A. Maher, Ibraheem K. Ibraheem

Abstract:

This work presents a comparison study between the state-space and polynomial methods for the design of the robust governor for load frequency control of steam turbine power systems. The robust governor is synthesized using the two approaches and the comparison is extended to include time and frequency domains performance, controller order, and uncertainty representation, weighting filters, optimality and sub-optimality. The obtained results are represented through tables and curves with reasons of similarities and dissimilarities.

Keywords: Robust control, load frequency control, steam turbine, H∞-norm, system uncertainty, load disturbance.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2025

Authors: Proud Arunrangsiwed

Abstract:

This study analyzes the crisis management and image repair strategies during the crisis of Mahidol Wittayanusorn School (MWIT) library burning. The library of this school was burned by a 16-year-old-male student on June 6th, 2010. This student blamed the school that the lesson was difficult, and other students were selfish. Although no one was in the building during the fire, it had caused damage to the building, books and electronic supplies around 130 million bahts (4.4 million USD). This event aroused many discourses arguing about the education system and morality. The strategies which were used during crisis were denial, shift the blame, bolstering, minimization, and uncertainty reduction. The results of using these strategies appeared after the crisis. That was the numbers of new students, who registered for the examination to get into this school in the later years, have remained the same.

Keywords: School, crisis management, violence, image repair strategies, uncertainty, burn.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4073

Authors: B. Janani, S. Thiruvenkadam

Abstract:

In this work, the system evaluates the impact of considering a stochastic approach on the day ahead basis Unit Commitment. Comparisons between stochastic and deterministic Unit Commitment solutions are provided. The Unit Commitment model consists in the minimization of the total operation costs considering unit’s technical constraints like ramping rates, minimum up and down time. Load shedding and wind power spilling is acceptable, but at inflated operational costs. The evaluation process consists in the calculation of the optimal unit commitment and in verifying the fulfillment of the considered constraints. For the calculation of the optimal unit commitment, an algorithm based on the Benders Decomposition, namely on the Dual Dynamic Programming, was developed. Two approaches were considered on the construction of stochastic solutions. Data related to wind power outputs from two different operational days are considered on the analysis. Stochastic and deterministic solutions are compared based on the actual measured wind power output at the operational day. Through a technique capability of finding representative wind power scenarios and its probabilities, the system can analyze a more detailed process about the expected final operational cost.

Keywords: Benders’ decomposition, network constrained AC unit commitment, stochastic programming, wind power uncertainty.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1270

Authors: Jongmin Kim, Tae-Ho Song

Abstract:

A measurement apparatus is designed and fabricated to measure the effective thermal conductivity (keff) of a VIP (vacuum insulation panel) core specimen under various vacuum states and external loads. The apparatus consists of part for measuring keff, and parts for controlling external load and vacuum condition. Uncertainty of the apparatus is validated by measuring the standard reference material and comparing with commercial devices with VIP samples. Assessed uncertainty is maximum 2.5 % in case of the standard reference material, 10 % in case of VIP samples. Using the apparatus, keff of glass paper under various vacuum levels is examined.

Keywords: Effective thermal conductivity, guarded hot plate method, vacuum insulation panel

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2036

Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke

Abstract:

Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.

Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1444

Authors: Elizabeth Stojanovski

Abstract:

Associations between life events and various forms of cancers have been identified. The purpose of a recent random-effects meta-analysis was to identify studies that examined the association between adverse events associated with changes to financial status including decreased income and breast cancer risk. The same association was studied in four separate studies which displayed traits that were not consistent between studies such as the study design, location, and time frame. It was of interest to pool information from various studies to help identify characteristics that differentiated study results. Two random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis models are proposed to combine the reported estimates of the described studies. The proposed models allow major sources of variation to be taken into account, including study level characteristics, between study variance and within study variance, and illustrate the ease with which uncertainty can be incorporated using a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach.

Keywords: Random-effects, meta-analysis, Bayesian, variation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 612

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Fuzzy set and intuitionistic fuzzy set are dealing with the imprecision and uncertainty inherent in a complex decision problem. However, sometimes these theories are not sufficient to model indeterminate and inconsistent information encountered in real-life problems. To overcome this insufficiency, the neutrosophic set, which is useful in practical applications, is proposed, triangular neutrosophic numbers and trapezoidal neutrosophic numbers are examined, their definitions and applications are discussed. In this study, a decision making algorithm is developed using neutrosophic set processes and an application is given in fighter aircraft selection as an example of a decision making problem. The estimation of the fighter aircraft selection with the neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis method is examined.  

Keywords: neutrosophic set, multiple criteria decision making analysis, fighter aircraft selection, MCDMA, neutrosophic numbers

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 860