Search results for: trend analysis

Authors: Hsu-Hao Tsai, Jiann-Min Yang

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The analysis is mainly concentrating on the knowledge management literatures productivity trend which subjects as “knowledge management" in SSCI database. The purpose what the analysis will propose is to summarize the trend information for knowledge management researchers since core knowledge will be concentrated in core categories. The result indicated that the literature productivity which topic as “knowledge management" is still increasing extremely and will demonstrate the trend by different categories including author, country/territory, institution name, document type, language, publication year, and subject area. Focus on the right categories, you will catch the core research information. This implies that the phenomenon "success breeds success" is more common in higher quality publications.

Keywords: Knowledge Management, SSCI, Bibliometric, Lotka's Law

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Authors: Arnab Bandyopadhyay, Anubhab Pal, Subhajit Debnath

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Climate change is a cumulative change in weather patterns over a period of time. Trend analysis using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test may help to determine the existence and magnitude of any statistically significant trend in the climatic data. Another index called Sen slope may be used to quantify the magnitude of such trends. A toolbar extension to ESRI ArcGIS named Arc Trends has been developed in this study for performing the above mentioned tasks. To study the temporal trend of meteorological parameters, 32 years (1971-2002) monthly meteorological data were collected for 133 selected stations over different agro-ecological regions of India. Both the maximum and minimum temperatures were found to be rising. A significant increasing trend in the relative humidity and a consistent significant decreasing trend in the wind speed all over the country were found. However, a general increase in rainfall was not found in recent years.

Keywords: Temporal trend, climate change, ArcGIS, Mann- Kendall test, Sen slope

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Authors: Fereshteh Mahdavi, Maizatul Akmar Ismail, Noorhidawati Abdullah

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Currently WWW is the first solution for scholars in finding information. But, analyzing and interpreting this volume of information will lead to researchers overload in pursuing their research. Trend detection in scientific publication retrieval systems helps scholars to find relevant, new and popular special areas by visualizing the trend of input topic. However, there are few researches on trend detection in scientific corpora while their proposed models do not appear to be suitable. Previous works lack of an appropriate representation scheme for research topics. This paper describes a method that combines Semantic Web and ontology to support advance search functions such as trend detection in the context of scholarly Semantic Web system (SSWeb).

Keywords: Trend, Semi-Automatic Trend Detection, Ontology, Semantic Trend Detection.

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Authors: Seongmin Yim

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The Korean government has applied preliminary feasibility study for new and huge R&D programs since 2008.The study is carried out from the viewpoints of technology, policy, and Economics. Then integrate the separate analysis and finally arrive at a definite result; whether a program is feasible or unfeasible, This paper describes the concept and method of the feasibility analysis focused on technological viability assessment for technical analysis. It consists of technology trend assessment and technology level assessment. Through the analysis, we can determine the chance of schedule delay or cost overrun occurring in the proposed plan.

Keywords: Preliminary Feasibility Study, Technological viability, Technology Trend Assessment, Technology Level Assessment

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Authors: Hei-Chia Wang, Wei-Pin Chiu

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As research performance in academia is treated as one of indices for national competency, many countries devote much attention and resources to increasing their research performance. Understand the research trend is the basic step to improve the research performance. The goal of this research is to design an analysis system to evaluate research trends from analyzing data from different countries. In this paper, information system researches in Taiwan and other countries, including Asian countries and prominent countries represented by the Group of Eight (G8) is used as example. Our research found the trends are varied in different countries. Our research suggested that Taiwan-s scholars can pay more attention to interdisciplinary applications and try to increase their collaboration with other countries, in order to increase Taiwan's competency in the area of information science.

Keywords: Bibliometric analysis, research trend, scientometric analysis.

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Authors: Hua Cao, Laurent Peyrodie, Olivier Agnani, Cécile Donzé

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Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a disease which affects the central nervous system and causes balance problem. In clinical, this disorder is usually evaluated using static posturography. Some linear or nonlinear measures, extracted from the posturographic data (i.e. center of pressure, COP) recorded during a balance test, has been used to analyze postural control of MS patients. In this study, the trend (TREND) and the sample entropy (SampEn), two nonlinear parameters were chosen to investigate their relationships with the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score. 40 volunteers with different EDSS scores participated in our experiments with eyes open (EO) and closed (EC). TREND and 2 types of SampEn (SampEn1 and SampEn2) were calculated for each combined COP’s position signal. The results have shown that TREND had a weak negative correlation to EDSS while SampEn2 had a strong positive correlation to EDSS. Compared to TREND and SampEn1, SampEn2 showed a better significant correlation to EDSS and an ability to discriminate the MS patients in the EC case. In addition, the outcome of the study suggests that the multi-dimensional nonlinear analysis could provide some information about the impact of disability progression in MS on dynamics of the COP data.

Keywords: Balance, multiple sclerosis, nonlinear analysis, postural sway.

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

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Hydroclimatic observation values ​​are used in the planning of the project of water resources. Climate variables are the first of the values ​​used in planning projects. At the same time, the climate system is a complex and interactive system involving the atmosphere, land surfaces, snow and bubbles, the oceans and other water structures. The amount and distribution of precipitation, which is an important climate parameter, is a limiting environmental factor for dispersed living things. Trend analysis is applied to the detection of the presence of a pattern or trend in the data set. Many trends work in different parts of the world are usually made for the determination of climate change. The detection and attribution of past trends and variability in climatic variables is essential for explaining potential future alteration resulting from anthropogenic activities. Parametric and non-parametric tests are used for determining the trends in climatic variables. In this study, trend tests were applied to annual total precipitation data obtained in period of 1972 and 2012, in the Konya Basin. Non-parametric trend tests, (Sen’s T, Spearman’s Rho, Mann-Kendal, Sen’s T trend, Wald-Wolfowitz) and parametric test (mean square) were applied to annual total precipitations of 15 stations for trend analysis. The linear slopes (change per unit time) of trends are calculated by using a non-parametric estimator developed by Sen. The beginning of trends is determined by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test. In addition, homogeneities in precipitation trends are tested by using a method developed by Van Belle and Hughes. As a result of tests, negative linear slopes were found in annual total precipitations in Konya.

Keywords: Trend analysis, precipitation, hydroclimatology, Konya, Turkey.

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-ofsample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: Financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction.

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Authors: A.L. Seetharam, B.L. Udaya Simha

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The Bangalore City is facing the acute problem of pollution in the atmosphere due to the heavy increase in the traffic and developmental activities in recent years. The present study is an attempt in the direction to assess trend of the ambient air quality status of three stations, viz., AMCO Batteries Factory, Mysore Road, GRAPHITE INDIA FACTORY, KHB Industrial Area, Whitefield and Ananda Rao Circle, Gandhinagar with respect to some of the major criteria pollutants such as Total Suspended particular matter (SPM), Oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and Oxides of sulphur (SO2). The sites are representative of various kinds of growths viz., commercial, residential and industrial, prevailing in Bangalore, which are contributing to air pollution. The concentration of Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) at all locations showed a falling trend due to use of refined petrol and diesel in the recent years. The concentration of Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) showed an increasing trend but was within the permissible limits. The concentration of the Suspended particular matter (SPM) showed the mixed trend. The correlation between model and observed values is found to vary from 0.4 to 0.7 for SO2, 0.45 to 0.65 for NOx and 0.4 to 0.6 for SPM. About 80% of data is observed to fall within the error band of ±50%. Forecast test for the best fit models showed the same trend as actual values in most of the cases. However, the deviation observed in few cases could be attributed to change in quality of petro products, increase in the volume of traffic, introduction of LPG as fuel in many types of automobiles, poor condition of roads, prevailing meteorological conditions, etc.

Keywords: Bangalore, urban air pollution, time series analysis.

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Authors: Radek Malinský, Ivan Jelínek

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The current web has become a modern encyclopedia, where people share their thoughts and ideas on various topics around them. This kind of encyclopedia is very useful for other people who are looking for answers to their questions. However, with the growing popularity of social networking and blogging and ever expanding network services, there has also been a growing diversity of technologies along with a different structure of individual web sites. It is therefore difficult to directly find a relevant answer for a common Internet user. This paper presents a web application for the real-time end-to-end analysis of selected Internet trends where the trend can be whatever the people post online. The application integrates fully configurable tools for data collection and analysis using selected webometric algorithms, and for its chronological visualization to user. It can be assumed that the application facilitates the users to evaluate the quality of various products that are mentioned online.

Keywords: Trend, visualizer, web analysis, web 2.0.

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Authors: M. Derakhshanfar, B. Minaei-Bidgoli

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Spatial trends are one of the valuable patterns in geo databases. They play an important role in data analysis and knowledge discovery from spatial data. A spatial trend is a regular change of one or more non spatial attributes when spatially moving away from a start object. Spatial trend detection is a graph search problem therefore heuristic methods can be good solution. Artificial immune system (AIS) is a special method for searching and optimizing. AIS is a novel evolutionary paradigm inspired by the biological immune system. The models based on immune system principles, such as the clonal selection theory, the immune network model or the negative selection algorithm, have been finding increasing applications in fields of science and engineering. In this paper, we develop a novel immunological algorithm based on clonal selection algorithm (CSA) for spatial trend detection. We are created neighborhood graph and neighborhood path, then select spatial trends that their affinity is high for antibody. In an evolutionary process with artificial immune algorithm, affinity of low trends is increased with mutation until stop condition is satisfied.

Keywords: Spatial Data Mining, Spatial Trend Detection, Heuristic Methods, Artificial Immune System, Clonal Selection Algorithm (CSA)

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Authors: Amir Gandomkar, Tahereh Soltani Gord faramarzi, Parisa Safaripour Chafi, Abdol-Reza Amani

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Temperature, humidity and precipitation in an area, are parameters proved influential in the climate of that area, and one should recognize them so that he can determine the climate of that area. Climate changes are of primary importance in climatology, and in recent years, have been of great concern to researchers and even politicians and organizations, for they can play an important role in social, political and economic activities. Even though the real cause of climate changes or their stability is not yet fully recognized, they are a matter of concern to researchers and their importance for countries has prompted them to investigate climate changes in different levels, especially in regional, national and continental level. This issue has less been investigated in our country. However, in recent years, there have been some researches and conferences on climate changes. This study is also in line with such researches and tries to investigate and analyze the trends of climate changes (temperature and precipitation) in Sefid-roud (the name of a river) basin. Three parameters of mean annual precipitation, temperature, and maximum and minimum temperatures in 36 synoptic and climatology stations in a statistical period of 49 years (1956-2005) in the stations of Sefid-roud basin were analyzed by Mann-Kendall test. The results obtained by data analysis show that climate changes are short term and have a trend. The analysis of mean temperature revealed that changes have a significantly rising trend, besides the precipitation has a significantly falling trend.

Keywords: Trend, Climate changes, Sefid-roud, Mann-Kendall

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Authors: Rabindra K. Panda, Gurjeet Singh

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The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km² and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km² and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.

Keywords: Eastern India, long-term variability and trends, Mann-Kendall test, seasonality index, spatio-temporal variation.

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Authors: Jheng-Long Wu, Pei-Chann Chang, Yi-Fang Pan

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This research focus on developing a new segmentation method for improving forecasting model which is call trend based segmentation method (TBSM). Generally, the piece-wise linear representation (PLR) can finds some of pair of trading points is well for time series data, but in the complicated stock environment it is not well for stock forecasting because of the stock has more trends of trading. If we consider the trends of trading in stock price for the trading signal which it will improve the precision of forecasting model. Therefore, a TBSM with SVR model used to detect the trading points for various stocks of Taiwanese and America under different trend tendencies. The experimental results show our trading system is more profitable and can be implemented in real time of stock market

Keywords: Trend based segmentation method, support vector machine, turning detection, stock forecasting.

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

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Every year, fog formation over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) of Indian region during the winter months of December and January is believed to create numerous hazards, inconvenience, and economic loss to the inhabitants of this densely populated region of Indian subcontinent. The aim of the paper is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of winter fog over IGPs. Long term ground observations of visibility and other meteorological parameters (1971-2010) have been analyzed to understand the formation of fog phenomena and its relevance during the peak winter months of January and December over IGP of India. In order to examine the temporal variability, time series and trend analysis were carried out by using the Mann-Kendall Statistical test. Trend analysis performed by using the Mann-Kendall test, accepts the alternate hypothesis with 95% confidence level indicating that there exists a trend. Kendall tau’s statistics showed that there exists a positive correlation between time series and fog frequency. Further, the Theil and Sen’s median slope estimate showed that the magnitude of trend is positive. Magnitude is higher during January compared to December for the entire IGP except in December when it is high over the western IGP. Decade wise time series analysis revealed that there has been continuous increase in fog days. The net overall increase of 99 % was observed over IGP in last four decades. Diurnal variability and average daily persistence were computed by using descriptive statistical techniques. Geo-statistical analysis of fog was carried out to understand the spatial variability of fog. Geo-statistical analysis of fog revealed that IGP is a high fog prone zone with fog occurrence frequency of more than 66% days during the study period. Diurnal variability indicates the peak occurrence of fog is between 06:00 and 10:00 local time and average daily fog persistence extends to 5 to 7 hours during the peak winter season. The results would offer a new perspective to take proactive measures in reducing the irreparable damage that could be caused due to changing trends of fog.

Keywords: Fog, climatology, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis, spatial variability, temporal variability, visibility.

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Authors: Rusudan Kinkladze, Guguli Kurashvili, Ketevan Chitaladze

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Foreign direct investment is a driving force in the development of the interdependent national economies, and the study and analysis of investments is an urgent problem. It is particularly important for transitional economies, such as Georgia, and the study and analysis of investments is an urgent problem. Consequently, the goal of the research is the study and analysis of direct foreign investments in Georgia, and identification and forecasting of modern trends, and covers the period of 2006-2015. The study uses the methods of statistical observation, grouping and analysis, the methods of analytical indicators of time series, trend identification and the predicted values are calculated, as well as various literary and Internet sources relevant to the research. The findings showed that modern investment policy In Georgia is favorable for domestic as well as foreign investors. Georgia is still a net importer of investments. In 2015, the top 10 investing countries was led by Azerbaijan, United Kingdom and Netherlands, and the largest share of FDIs were allocated in the transport and communication sector; the financial sector was the second, followed by the health and social work sector, and the same trend will continue in the future. 

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investments, methods, statistics, analysis.

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Authors: Anocha Kimkong

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The purpose of this research was to study the behavior trend factors of consumers to roasted coffee at the petrol station on the route of Rangsit to Nakhon Nayok. The research drew upon data collected from the regular consumers of roasted coffee stands. The majority of respondents was male, 33-39 years old, and holding a bachelor degree. The majority of respondents considered themselves private business proprietors or entrepreneurs and had a monthly income of between 10,000-16,000 baht. The regular coffee consumers spent a minimum coffee expense of between 45 and 300 baht per day. These consumers also displayed good attitude and good motivation which can be ranked as very high. From the hypothesis testing of the behavior trend for the roasted coffee consumers in repurchasing coffee and recommended the coffee to others, the findings revealed that it had a significant correlation. Moreover, the overall attitude towards the marketing mix factors also had a significant correlation with the behavior trend consumers.

Keywords: Factors Related, Consuming Behaviour, Coffee Consumers.

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Authors: Kanyapat U. Tapao

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the operation strategy strategies and public relations trend for public relations strategies development in public television station in Thailand. This study is a qualitative approach by indent interview from the 6 key informants that are managers of Voice TV and Thairath TV Channel. The results showed that both TV stations have to do research before making a release on the operation strategy policy such as a slogan, segmentation, integrated marketing communication and PR activity and also in term of Public Relations trend are including online media, online content and online training before opening the station and start promoting. By the way, we found the PR strategy for both TV station should be including application on mobile, online content, CRM activity, online banner, special event, and brand ambassador in order to bring a very reliable way.

Keywords: Operation strategy, public relations trend, public relations strategies development, online banner.

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Authors: S. Masteika, A.V. Rutkauskas, A. Tamosaitis

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The paper investigates downtrend algorithm and trading strategy based on chart pattern recognition and technical analysis in futures market. The proposed chart formation is a pattern with the lowest low in the middle and one higher low on each side. The contribution of this paper lies in the reinforcement of statements about the profitability of momentum trend trading strategies. Practical benefit of the research is a trading algorithm in falling markets and back-test analysis in futures markets. When based on daily data, the algorithm has generated positive results, especially when the market had downtrend period. Downtrend algorithm can be applied as a hedge strategy against possible sudden market crashes. The proposed strategy can be interesting for futures traders, hedge funds or scientific researchers performing technical or algorithmic market analysis based on momentum trend trading.

Keywords: trading algorithm, chart pattern, downtrend trading, futures market, hedging

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Authors: Randhir Singh Baghel, Govind Prasad Sahu

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An individual seasonality index is used to study the seasonality of rainfall over India. The seasonality indicator is examined for two time periods: early (1901-1970) and recent (1971-2015). In some regions of India throughout the recent time (1971-2015), trend analysis using linear regression during these two periods reveals a downward trend in the seasonality index (i.e., decreasing values of the index), which implies shorter dry spells resulting in more consistent rainfall throughout the year.

Keywords: Individual seasonality index, rainfall distribution, seasonality index, climate.

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Authors: Hemant Kumar

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Brahmaputra River is known according to the Hindu mythology the son of the Lord Brahma. According to this name, the river Brahmaputra creates mass destruction during the monsoon season in Assam, India. It is a state situated in North-East part of India. This is one of the essential states out of the seven countries of eastern India, where almost all entire Brahmaputra flow carried out. The other states carry their tributaries. In the present case study, the spatial analysis performed in this specific case the number of MODIS data are acquired. In the method of detecting the change, the spray content was found during heavy rainfall and in the flooded monsoon season. By this method, particularly the analysis over the Brahmaputra outflow determines the flooded season. The charged particle-associated in aerosol content genuinely verifies the heavy water content below the ground surface, which is validated by trend analysis through rainfall spectrum data. This is confirmed by in-situ sampled view data from a different position of Brahmaputra River. Further, a Hyperion Hyperspectral 30 m resolution data were used to scan the sediment deposits, which is also confirmed by in-situ sampled view data from a different position.

Keywords: Spatial analysis, change detection, aerosol, trend analysis.

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Authors: Radha Krishan, Deepak Khare, Bhaskar R. Nikam, Ayush Chandrakar

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Every irrigation project is planned considering long-term historical climatic conditions; however, the prompt climatic shift and change has come out with such circumstances which were inconceivable in the past. Considering this fact, scrutiny of rainfall and temperature trend has been carried out over the command area of Eastern Ganga Canal project for pre-climate shift period and post-climate shift periods in the present study. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s methods have been applied to study the trends in annual rainfall, seasonal rainfall, annual rainy day, monsoonal rainy days, average annual temperature and seasonal temperature. The results showed decreasing trend of 48.11 to 42.17 mm/decade in annual rainfall and 79.78 tSo 49.67 mm/decade in monsoon rainfall in pre-climate to post-climate shift periods, respectively. The decreasing trend of 1 to 4 days/decade has been observed in annual rainy days from pre-climate to post-climate shift period. Trends in temperature revealed that there were significant decreasing trends in annual (-0.03 ºC/yr), Kharif (-0.02 ºC/yr), Rabi (-0.04 ºC/yr) and summer (-0.02 ºC/yr) season temperature during pre-climate shift period, whereas the significant increasing trend (0.02 ºC/yr) has been observed in all the four parameters during post climate shift period. These results will help project managers in understanding the climate shift and lead them to develop alternative water management strategies.

Keywords: Climate shift, Rainfall trend, temperature trend, Mann-Kendall test, Sen slope estimator, Eastern Ganga Canal command.

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Authors: Ashiquer Rahman, Ummey Salma, Afrin Jannat

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Recently, oil has become more influential in almost every economic sector as a key material. As can be seen from the news, when there are some changes in an oil price or Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announces a new strategy, its effect spreads to every part of the economy directly and indirectly. That’s a reason why people always observe the oil price and try to forecast the changes of it. The most important factor affecting the price is its supply which is determined by the number of wildcats drilled. Therefore, a study in relation between the number of wellheads and other economic variables may give us some understanding of the mechanism indicated the amount of oil supplies. In this paper, we will consider a relationship between the number of wellheads and three key factors: price of the wellhead, domestic output, and Gross National Product (GNP) constant dollars. We also add trend variables in the models because the consumption of oil varies from time to time. Moreover, this paper will use an econometrics method to estimate parameters in the model, apply some tests to verify the result we acquire, and then conclude the model.

Keywords: Price, domestic output, GNP, trend variable, wildcat activity.

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Authors: Abdelkader Magdy, Magdy Saeb, A. Baith Mohamed, Ahmed Khadragi

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The Deoxyribonucleic Acid (DNA) which is a doublestranded helix of nucleotides consists of: Adenine (A), Cytosine (C), Guanine (G) and Thymine (T). In this work, we convert this genetic code into an equivalent digital signal representation. Applying a wavelet transform, such as Haar wavelet, we will be able to extract details that are not so clear in the original genetic code. We compare between different organisms using the results of the Haar wavelet Transform. This is achieved by using the trend part of the signal since the trend part bears the most energy of the digital signal representation. Consequently, we will be able to quantitatively reconstruct different biological families.

Keywords: Digital Signal, DNA, Fluctuation part, Haar wavelet, Nucleotides, Trend part.

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Authors: S. A. A. Korori, H. Valipour K., S. Shabestani, A. shirvany, M. Matinizadeh

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Tehran, one of the heavily-populated capitals, is severely suffering from increasing air pollution. To show a documented trend of such pollutants during last years, plane tree species (Platanus orientalis) were suited to be studied as indicators, for the species have been planted throughout the city many years ago. Two areas (Saadatabad and Narmak districts) allotting different contents of crowed and highly-traffic routs but the same ecological characteristics were selected. Twelve sample individuals were cored twice perpendicularly in each area. Tree-rings of each core were measured by a binocular microscope and separated annually for the last 25 years. Two heavy metals including Cd and Pb accompanied by a mineral element (Ca) were analyzed using Hatch method. Treerings analysis of the two areas showed different groups in term of physiologically ability as the growths were plunged during the last 10 years in Saadatabad district and showed a slight decrease in the same period for another studying area. In direct contrast to decreasing growth trend in Saadatabad, all three mentioned elements increased sharply during last 25 years in the same area. When it came to Narmak district, the trend was completely different with Saadatabad. There were some fluctuations in absorbing trace elements like tree-rings widths were, yet calcium showed an upward trend all the last 25 years. The results of the study proved the possibility of using tree species of each region to monitor its air pollution trends of the past, hence to depict a pollution assessment of a populated city for last years and then to make appropriate decisions for the future as it is well-known what the trend is. On the other hand, risen values of calcium (as the stress-indicator element) accompanied by increased trace elements suggests non-sustainable state of the trees.

Keywords: Air pollution, Platanus orientalis, Tehran, Traceelements, Tree rings.

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Authors: I. Made Gatot Karohika, Shigeyuki Haruyama, Ken Kaminishi, Oke Oktavianty, Didik Nurhadiyanto

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Contact width and contact stress are important parameters related to the leakage behavior of corrugated metal gasket. In this study, contact width and contact stress of three-layer corrugated metal gasket are investigated due to the modulus of elasticity and thickness of surface layer for 2 type gasket (0-MPa and 400-MPa mode). A finite element method was employed to develop simulation solution to analysis the effect of each parameter. The result indicated that lowering the modulus of elasticity ratio of surface layer will result in better contact width but the average contact stresses are smaller. When the modulus of elasticity ratio is held constant with thickness ratio increase, its contact width has an increscent trend otherwise the average contact stress has decreased trend.

Keywords: Contact width, contact stress, layer, metal gasket, corrugated, simulation.

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Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Makino Kyoko, Shigeru Matsumoto

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This paper proposes a method that predicts attractive evaluation objects. In the learning phase, the method inductively acquires trend rules from complex sequential data. The data is composed of two types of data. One is numerical sequential data. Each evaluation object has respective numerical sequential data. The other is text sequential data. Each evaluation object is described in texts. The trend rules represent changes of numerical values related to evaluation objects. In the prediction phase, the method applies new text sequential data to the trend rules and evaluates which evaluation objects are attractive. This paper verifies the effect of the proposed method by using stock price sequences and news headline sequences. In these sequences, each stock brand corresponds to an evaluation object. This paper discusses validity of predicted attractive evaluation objects, the process time of each phase, and the possibility of application tasks.

Keywords: Trend rule, frequent pattern, numerical sequential data, text sequential data, evaluation object.

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

Abstract:

In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the Generalized extreme value(GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (C.D.C). By considering two sets of data (Raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data while in the simulated data, the return values show an increasing trend but with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend but with an upper bound. This clearly shows that temperatures in the tropics even-though show a sign of increasing in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedence. The results of this paper are very vital in Agricultural and Environmental research.

Keywords: Return level, Generalized extreme value (GEV), Meteorology, Forecasting.

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Authors: Y. Huang, Q. J. Tian, L. T. Du, J. Liu, S. S. Li

Abstract:

Understanding how precipitation inter-annually changes and its implication in agricultural drought and production change in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) growth season is critical for crop production in China. MODIS Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) and daily mean precipitation time series for the main growth season(Feb. to May) of winter wheat from 2000 to 2010 were used to analyze the distribution of trends of precipitation, agricultural drought and winter wheat yield change respectively, and relationships between them in North China region(Huang-huai-hai region, HHH region), China. The results indicated that the trend of precipitation in HHH region past 11 years was increasing, which had induced generally corresponding decreasing trend of agricultural drought and increasing trend of wheat yield, while the trend of drought was spatially diverse. The study could provide a basis for agricultural drought research during winter wheat season in HHH region under the ground of climate change.

Keywords: drought, MODIS, precipitation change, TVDI, winter wheat production

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

Abstract:

The aim of the paper is to analyze the characteristics of winter fog in terms of its trend and spatial-temporal variability over Indo-Gangetic plains. The study reveals that during last four and half decades (1971-2015), an alarming increasing trend in fog frequency has been observed during the winter months of December and January over the study area. The frequency of fog has increased by 118.4% during the peak winter months of December and January. It has also been observed that on an average central part of IGP has 66.29% fog days followed by west IGP with 41.94% fog days. Further, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition and Mann-Kendall variation analysis are used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of winter fog. The findings have significant implications for the further research of fog over IGP and formulate robust strategies to adapt the fog variability and mitigate its effects. The decision by Delhi Government to implement odd-even scheme to restrict the use of private vehicles in order to reduce pollution and improve quality of air may result in increasing the alarming increasing trend of fog over Delhi and its surrounding areas regions of IGP.

Keywords: Fog, climatology, spatial variability, temporal variability, empirical orthogonal function, visibility, Mann-Kendall test, variation point.

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