Search results for: transition probabilities.

Authors: L. Estrada, D. Torres, H. Toral

Abstract:

In this work, a characterization and modeling of packet loss of a Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) communication is developed. The distributions of the number of consecutive received and lost packets (namely gap and burst) are modeled from the transition probabilities of two-state and four-state model. Measurements show that both models describe adequately the burst distribution, but the decay of gap distribution for non-homogeneous losses is better fit by the four-state model. The respective probabilities of transition between states for each model were estimated with a proposed algorithm from a set of monitored VoIP calls in order to obtain representative minimum, maximum and average values for both models.

Keywords: Packet loss, gap and burst distribution, Markovchain, VoIP measurements.

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Authors: Fenglong Guo, Dingcheng Wang

Abstract:

This paper studies ruin probabilities in two discrete-time risk models with premiums, claims and rates of interest modelled by three autoregressive moving average processes. Generalized Lundberg inequalities for ruin probabilities are derived by using recursive technique. A numerical example is given to illustrate the applications of these probability inequalities.

Keywords: Lundberg inequality, NWUC, Renewal recursive technique, Ruin probability

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Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

Abstract:

The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: Concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix.

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Authors: M. Glomski, M. Lopes

Abstract:

Seemingly simple probabilities in the m-player game bingo have never been calculated. These probabilities include expected game length and the expected number of winners on a given turn. The difficulty in probabilistic analysis lies in the subtle interdependence among the m-many bingo game cards in play. In this paper, the game i got it!, a bingo variant, is considered. This variation provides enough weakening of the inter-player dependence to allow probabilistic analysis not possible for traditional bingo. The probability of winning in exactly k turns is calculated for a one-player game. Given a game of m-many players, the expected game length and tie probability are calculated. With these calculations, the game-s interesting payout scheme is considered.

Keywords: Conditional probability, games of chance, npersongames, probability theory.

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Authors: Yunyoung Nam, Junghun Ryu, Yoo-Joo Choi, We-Duke Cho

Abstract:

This paper presents a novel approach for representing the spatio-temporal topology of the camera network with overlapping and non-overlapping fields of view (FOVs). The topology is determined by tracking moving objects and establishing object correspondence across multiple cameras. To track people successfully in multiple camera views, we used the Merge-Split (MS) approach for object occlusion in a single camera and the grid-based approach for extracting the accurate object feature. In addition, we considered the appearance of people and the transition time between entry and exit zones for tracking objects across blind regions of multiple cameras with non-overlapping FOVs. The main contribution of this paper is to estimate transition times between various entry and exit zones, and to graphically represent the camera topology as an undirected weighted graph using the transition probabilities.

Keywords: Surveillance, multiple camera, people tracking, topology.

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Authors: Edina Koch, Péter Hudacsek

Abstract:

In railways transition zone is present at the boundaries of zones with different stiffness. When a train rides from an embankment onto a stiff structure, such as a bridge, tunnel or culvert, an abrupt change in the support stiffness occurs possibly inducing differential settlements. This in long term can yield to the degradation of the tracks and foundations in the transition zones. A number of techniques have been proposed or implemented to provide gradual stiffness transition at the problem zones, such as methods to ensure gradually changing pad stiffness, application of long sleepers or installation of auxiliary rails in the transition zone. Aim of the research presented in this paper is to analyze the 3D and the dynamic effects induced by the passing train over an area where significant difference in the support stiffness exists. The effects were analyzed for different arrangements associated with certain differential settlement mitigation strategies of the transition zones.

Keywords: Culvert, dynamic load, HS small model, railway transition zone.

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Authors: Dong Ming, Su Caihong

Abstract:

The scenario of bypass transition is generally described as follows: the low-frequency disturbances in the free-stream may generate long stream-wise streaks in the boundary layer, which later may trigger secondary instability, leading to rapid increase of high-frequency disturbances. Then possibly turbulent spots emerge, and through their merging, lead to fully developed turbulence. This description, however, is insufficient in the sense that it does not provide the inherent mechanism of transition that during the transition, a large number of waves with different frequencies and wave numbers appear almost simultaneously, producing sufficiently large Reynolds stress, so the mean flow profile can change rapidly from laminar to turbulent. In this paper, such a mechanism will be figured out from analyzing DNS data of transition.

Keywords: boundary layer, breakdown, bypass transition, stability, streak.

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Authors: Adil AL-Rammahi

Abstract:

In this short paper, new properties of transition matrix were introduced. Eigen values for small order transition matrices are calculated in flexible method. For benefit of these properties applications of these properties were studied in the solution of Markov's chain via steady state vector, and information theory via channel entropy. The implemented test examples were promised for usages.

Keywords: Eigen value problem, transition matrix, state vector, information theory.

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Authors: Caihong Su

Abstract:

Transition prediction of boundary layers has always been an important problem in fluid mechanics both theoretically and practically, yet notwithstanding the great effort made by many investigators, there is no satisfactory answer to this problem. The most popular method available is so-called e-N method which is heavily dependent on experiments and experience. The author has proposed improvements to the e-N method, so to reduce its dependence on experiments and experience to a certain extent. One of the key assumptions is that transition would occur whenever the velocity amplitude of disturbance reaches 1-2% of the free stream velocity. However, the reliability of this assumption needs to be verified. In this paper, transition prediction on a flat plate is investigated by using both the improved e-N method and the parabolized stability equations (PSE) methods. The results show that the transition locations predicted by both methods agree reasonably well with each other, under the above assumption. For the supersonic case, the critical velocity amplitude in the improved e-N method should be taken as 0.013, whereas in the subsonic case, it should be 0.018, both are within the range 1-2%.

Keywords: Boundary layer, e-N method, PSE, Transition

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Authors: Zhang Xiuping, Yang Guowu, Zheng Desheng

Abstract:

Embedded hardware simulator is a valuable computeraided tool for embedded application development. This paper focuses on the ARM926EJ-S MMU, builds state transition models and formally verifies critical properties for the models. The state transition models include loading instruction model, reading data model, and writing data model. The properties of the models are described by CTL specification language, and they are verified in VIS. The results obtained in VIS demonstrate that the critical properties of MMU are satisfied in the state transition models. The correct models can be used to implement the MMU component in our simulator. In the end of this paper, the experimental results show that the MMU can successfully accomplish memory access requests from CPU.

Keywords: MMU, State transition, Model, Simulation.

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Authors: Chutchada Nusai, Yoshimi Suzuki, Haruaki Yamazaki

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Selecting the word translation from a set of target language words, one that conveys the correct sense of source word and makes more fluent target language output, is one of core problems in machine translation. In this paper we compare the 3 methods of estimating word translation probabilities for selecting the translation word in Thai – English Machine Translation. The 3 methods are (1) Method based on frequency of word translation, (2) Method based on collocation of word translation, and (3) Method based on Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. For evaluation we used Thai – English parallel sentences generated by NECTEC. The method based on EM algorithm is the best method in comparison to the other methods and gives the satisfying results.

Keywords: Machine translation, EM algorithm.

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Authors: Mario Spremić, Jurica Šimurina, Božidar Jaković, Marijana Ivanov

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This paper deals with e-government issues at several levels. Initially we look at the concept of e-government itself in order to give it a sound framework. Than we look at the e-government issues at three levels, first we analyse it at the global level, second we analyse it at the level of transition economies, and finally we take a closer look on developments in Croatia. The analysis includes actual progress being made in selected transition economies given the Euro area averages, along with e-government potential in future demanding period.

Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe, Croatia, e-Government, ICT.

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Authors: H. Ait Abderrahmane, M. Fayed, H. D. Ng, G. H. Vatistas

Abstract:

The present paper expands details and confirms the transition mechanism between two subsequent polygonal patterns of the hollow-core vortex. Using power spectral analysis, we confirm in this work that the transition from any N-gon to (N+1)-gon pattern observed within a hollow-core vortex of shallow rotating flows occurs in two steps. The regime was quasi-periodic before the frequencies lock (synchronization). The ratios of locking frequencies were found to be equal to (N-1)/N.

Keywords: Patterns, quasi-periodic, swirling, synchronization, transition.

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Authors: Alexander B. Bichkov, Alla A. Mityureva, Valery V. Smirnov

Abstract:

In present work are considered the scheme of evaluation the transition probability in quantum system. It is based on path integral representation of transition probability amplitude and its evaluation by means of a saddle point method, applied to the part of integration variables. The whole integration process is reduced to initial value problem solutions of Hamilton equations with a random initial phase point. The scheme is related to the semiclassical initial value representation approaches using great number of trajectories. In contrast to them from total set of generated phase paths only one path for each initial coordinate value is selected in Monte Karlo process.

Keywords: Path integral, saddle point method, semiclassical approximation, transition probability

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Authors: Naim Suleyman Ting, Yakup Sahin, Ismail Aksoy

Abstract:

This paper presents a zero voltage transition-zero current transition (ZVT-ZCT)-PWM DC-DC boost converter with direct power transfer. In this converter, the main switch turns on with ZVT and turns off with ZCT. The auxiliary switch turns on and off with zero current switching (ZCS). The main diode turns on with ZVS and turns off with ZCS. Besides, the additional current or voltage stress does not occur on the main device. The converter has features as simple structure, fast dynamic response and easy control. Also, the proposed converter has direct power transfer feature as well as excellent soft switching techniques. In this study, the operating principle of the converter is presented and its operation is verified for 1 kW and 100 kHz model.

Keywords: Direct power transfer, boost converter, zero-voltage transition, zero-current transition.

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Authors: Ulas Vural, M. Ergun Okay, E. Mesut Yildiz

Abstract:

Telecommunication service providers demand accurate and precise prediction of customer churn probabilities to increase the effectiveness of their customer relation services. The large amount of customer data owned by the service providers is suitable for analysis by machine learning methods. In this study, expenditure data of customers are analyzed by using an artificial neural network (ANN). The ANN model is applied to the data of customers with different billing duration. The proposed model successfully predicts the churn probabilities at 83% accuracy for only three months expenditure data and the prediction accuracy increases up to 89% when the nine month data is used. The experiments also show that the accuracy of ANN model increases on an extended feature set with information of the changes on the bill amounts.

Keywords: Customer relationship management, churn prediction, telecom industry, deep learning, Artificial Neural Networks, ANN.

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Authors: Stoyan Nedeltchev, Markus Schubert

Abstract:

The gas holdup fluctuations in a bubble column (0.15 m in ID) have been recorded by means of a conductivity wire-mesh sensor in order to extract information about the main transition velocities. These parameters are very important for bubble column design, operation and scale-up. For this purpose, the classical definition of the Shannon entropy was modified and used to identify both the onset (at U_G=0.034 m/s) of the transition flow regime and the beginning (at U_G=0.089 m/s) of the churn-turbulent flow regime. The results were compared with the Kolmogorov entropy (KE) results. A slight discrepancy was found, namely the transition velocities identified by means of the KE were shifted to somewhat higher (0.045 and 0.101 m/s) superficial gas velocities U_G.

Keywords: Bubble column, gas holdup fluctuations, Modified Shannon entropy, Kolmogorov entropy.

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Authors: Stoyan Nedeltchev, Markus Schubert

Abstract:

By means of the ultrafast X-ray tomography facility, data were obtained at different superficial gas velocities U_G in a bubble column (0.1 m in ID) operated with an air-deionized water system at ambient conditions. Raw reconstructed images were treated by both the information entropy (IE) and the reconstruction entropy (RE) algorithms in order to identify the main transition velocities in a bubble column. The IE values exhibited two well-pronounced minima at U_G=0.025 m/s and U_G=0.085 m/s identifying the boundaries of the homogeneous, transition and heterogeneous regimes. The RE extracted from the central region of the column’s cross-section exhibited only one characteristic peak at U_G=0.03 m/s, which was attributed to the transition from the homogeneous to the heterogeneous flow regime. This result implies that the transition regime is non-existent in the core of the column.

Keywords: Bubble column, ultrafast X-ray tomography, information entropy, reconstruction entropy.

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Authors: D. Latha, V. Sunitha, Samson Mathew

Abstract:

In India, most of the pavement is laid by bituminous road and the consumption of binder is high for pavement construction and also modified binders are used to satisfy any specific pavement requirement. Since the binders are visco-elastic material which is having the mechanical properties of binder transition from viscoelastic solid to visco-elastic fluid. In this paper, two different protocols were used to measure the viscosity property of binder using a Brookfield Viscometer and there is a need to find the appropriate mixing and compaction temperatures of various types of binders which can result in complete aggregate coating and adequate field density of HMA mixtures. The aim of this work is to find the transition temperature from Non-Newtonian behavior to Newtonian behavior of the binder by adopting a steady shear protocol and the shear rate ramp protocol. The transition from non-Newtonian to Newtonian can occur through an increase of temperature and shear of the material. The test has been conducted for unmodified binder VG 30. The transition temperature was found in the unmodified binder VG is 120oC. Therefore, the application of both modified binder and unmodified binder in the pavement construction needs to be studied properly by considering temperature and traffic loading factors of the respective project site.

Keywords: Unmodified and modified binders, Brookfield Viscometer, transition temperature, steady shear, shear rate protocol.

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Authors: Anand B. Desamala, Anjali Dasari, Vinayak Vijayan, Bharath K. Goshika, Ashok K. Dasmahapatra, Tapas K. Mandal

Abstract:

In the present study, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation has been executed to investigate the transition boundaries of different flow patterns for moderately viscous oil-water (viscosity ratio 107, density ratio 0.89 and interfacial tension of 0.032 N/m.) two-phase flow through a horizontal pipeline with internal diameter and length of 0.025 m and 7.16 m respectively. Volume of Fluid (VOF) approach including effect of surface tension has been employed to predict the flow pattern. Geometry and meshing of the present problem has been drawn using GAMBIT and ANSYS FLUENT has been used for simulation. A total of 47037 quadrilateral elements are chosen for the geometry of horizontal pipeline. The computation has been performed by assuming unsteady flow, immiscible liquid pair, constant liquid properties, co-axial flow and a T-junction as entry section. The simulation correctly predicts the transition boundaries of wavy stratified to stratified mixed flow. Other transition boundaries are yet to be simulated. Simulated data has been validated with our own experimental results.

Keywords: CFD simulation, flow pattern transition, moderately viscous oil-water flow, prediction of flow transition boundary, VOF technique.

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Authors: Revanth Sai Kosaraju, Michael Ramscar, Melody Dye

Abstract:

Accounts of language acquisition differ significantly in their treatment of the role of prediction in language learning. In particular, nativist accounts posit that probabilistic learning about words and word sequences has little to do with how children come to use language. The accuracy of this claim was examined by testing whether distributional probabilities and frequency contributed to how well 3-4 year olds repeat simple word chunks. Corresponding chunks were the same length, expressed similar content, and were all grammatically acceptable, yet the results of the study showed marked differences in performance when overall distributional frequency varied. It was found that a distributional model of language predicted the empirical findings better than a number of other models, replicating earlier findings and showing that children attend to distributional probabilities in an adult corpus. This suggested that language is more prediction-and-error based, rather than on abstract rules which nativist camps suggest.

Keywords: Abstractness, child psychology, language acquisition, prediction and error.

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Authors: Abhishek Kumar Chandra, Kaushal Kishor, Wasim Khan, Dhananjay Singh, M. S. Alam

Abstract:

Single phase fluid flow through series of uniform microchannels connected via transition section (converging-diverging section with or without throat) was analytically and numerically studied to characterize the flow within the channel and in the transition sections. Three sets of microchannels of diameters 100, 184, and 249 μm were considered for investigation. Each set contains 10 numbers of microchannels of length 20 mm, connected to each other in series via transition sections. Transition section consists of either converging-diverging section with throat or without throat. The effect of non-uniformity in microchannels on pressure drop was determined by passing water/air through the set of channels for Reynolds number 50 to 1000. Compressibility and rarefaction effects in transition sections were also tested analytically and numerically for air flow. The analytical and numerical results show that these configurations can be used in enhancement of transport processes. However, converging-diverging section without throat shows superior performance over with throat configuration.

Keywords: Contraction-expansion flow, integrated microchannel, microchannel network, single phase flow.

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Authors: Abhilash Narayan, S. Panneerselvam

Abstract:

Dual bell nozzle is a promising one among the altitude adaptation nozzle concepts, which offer increased nozzle performance in rocket engines. Its advantage is the simplicity it offers due to the absence of any additional mechanical device or movable parts. Hence it offers reliability along with improved nozzle performance as demanded by future launch vehicles. Among other issues, the flow transition to the extension nozzle of a dual bell nozzle is one of the major issues being studied in the development of dual bell nozzle. A parameter named over-expansion factor, which controls the value of the wall inflection angle, has been reported to have substantial influence in this transition process. This paper studies, through CFD and cold flow experiments, the effect of overexpansion factor on flow transition in dual bell nozzles.

Keywords: Altitude adaptation, Dual bell nozzle, Nozzle pressure ratio, Over-expansion factor

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Authors: Gyo Woo Lee

Abstract:

In this study, the phase transition characteristics of flame-synthesized γ-Al₂O₃ nanoparticles to α-Al₂O₃ have been investigated. The nanoparticles were synthesized by using a coflow hydrogen diffusion flame. The phase transition and particle characteristics of the Al₂O₃ nanoparticles were determined by examining the crystalline structure and the shape of the collected nanoparticles before and after the heat treatment. The morphology and crystal structure of the Al₂O₃ nanoparticles were determined from SEM images and XRD analyses, respectively. The measured specific surface area and averaged particle size were 63.44m²/g and 23.94nm, respectively. Based on the scanning electron microscope images and x-ray diffraction patterns, it is believed that the onset temperature of the phase transition to α-Al₂O₃ was existed near 1200^oC. The averaged diameters of the sintered particles heat treated at 1,260^oC were approximately 80nm.

Keywords: BET Specific Surface Area, Gamma-Al2O3 Nanoparticles, Flame Synthesis, Phase Transition, X-ray Diffraction.

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Authors: Dewan Md. Farid, Jerome Darmont, Nouria Harbi, Nguyen Huu Hoa, Mohammad Zahidur Rahman

Abstract:

In this paper, a new learning approach for network intrusion detection using naïve Bayesian classifier and ID3 algorithm is presented, which identifies effective attributes from the training dataset, calculates the conditional probabilities for the best attribute values, and then correctly classifies all the examples of training and testing dataset. Most of the current intrusion detection datasets are dynamic, complex and contain large number of attributes. Some of the attributes may be redundant or contribute little for detection making. It has been successfully tested that significant attribute selection is important to design a real world intrusion detection systems (IDS). The purpose of this study is to identify effective attributes from the training dataset to build a classifier for network intrusion detection using data mining algorithms. The experimental results on KDD99 benchmark intrusion detection dataset demonstrate that this new approach achieves high classification rates and reduce false positives using limited computational resources.

Keywords: Attributes selection, Conditional probabilities, information gain, network intrusion detection.

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Authors: What Factors Contributed to the Adaptation Gap during School Transition in Japan?

Abstract:

The present study was aimed to examine the structure of children’s adaptation during school transition and to identify a commonality and dissimilarity at the elementary and junior high school. 1,983 students in the 6th grade and 2,051 students in the 7th grade were extracted by stratified two-stage random sampling and completed the ASSESS that evaluated the school adaptation from the view point of ‘general satisfaction’, ‘teachers’ support’, ‘friends’ support’, ‘anti-bullying relationship’, ‘prosocial skills’, and ‘academic adaptation’. The 7th graders tend to be worse adaptation than the 6th graders. A structural equation modeling showed the goodness of fit for each grades. Both models were very similar but the 7th graders’ model showed a lower coefficient at the pass from ‘teachers’ support’ to ‘friends’ support’. The role of ‘teachers’ support’ was decreased to keep a good relation in junior high school. We also discussed how we provide a continuous assistance for prevention of the 7th graders’ gap.

Keywords: School transition, social support, psychological adaptation, K-12.

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Authors: Pankaj, Sonia R. Bansal

Abstract:

Stresses for the elastic-plastic transition and fully plastic state have been derived for a thin rotating disc with inclusion and results have been discussed numerically and depicted graphically. It has been observed that the rotating disc with inclusion and made of compressible material requires lesser angular speed to yield at the internal surface whereas it requires higher percentage increase in angular speed to become fully plastic as compare to disc made of incompressible material.

Keywords: Angular speed, Elastic-Plastic, Inclusion, Rotatingdisc, Stress, Transition.

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Authors: Yakup Sahin, Naim Suleyman Ting, Ismail Aksoy

Abstract:

A 1 kW power factor correction boost converter with an active snubber cell is presented in this paper. In the converter, the main switch turns on under zero voltage transition (ZVT) and turns off under zero current transition (ZCT) without any additional voltage or current stress. The auxiliary switch turns on and off under zero current switching (ZCS). Besides, the main diode turns on under ZVS and turns off under ZCS. The output current and voltage are controlled by the PFC converter in wide line and load range. The simulation results of converter are obtained for 1 kW and 100 kHz. One of the most important feature of the given converter is that it has direct power transfer as well as excellent soft switching techniques. Also, the converter has 0.99 power factor with the sinusoidal input current shape.

Keywords: Power factor correction, direct power transfer, zero-voltage transition, zero-current transition, soft switching.

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Authors: Abdelaziz Zaidi, Belkacem Ould Bouamama, Moncef Tagina

Abstract:

Bond Graph as a unified multidisciplinary tool is widely used not only for dynamic modelling but also for Fault Detection and Isolation because of its structural and causal proprieties. A binary Fault Signature Matrix is systematically generated but to make the final binary decision is not always feasible because of the problems revealed by such method. The purpose of this paper is introducing a methodology for the improvement of the classical binary method of decision-making, so that the unknown and identical failure signatures can be treated to improve the robustness. This approach consists of associating the evaluated residuals and the components reliability data to build a Hybrid Bayesian Network. This network is used in two distinct inference procedures: one for the continuous part and the other for the discrete part. The continuous nodes of the network are the prior probabilities of the components failures, which are used by the inference procedure on the discrete part to compute the posterior probabilities of the failures. The developed methodology is applied to a real steam generator pilot process.

Keywords: Redundancy relations, decision-making, Bond Graph, reliability, Bayesian Networks.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present, propose and examine additional membership functions for the Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models. More specifically, we present the tangent hyperbolic, Gaussian and Generalized bell functions. Because Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models follow fuzzy logic approach, more fuzzy membership functions should be tested. Furthermore, fuzzy rules can be incorporated or other training or computational methods can be applied as the error backpropagation or genetic algorithm instead to nonlinear squares. We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.

Keywords: Forecast , Fuzzy membership functions, Smoothingtransition, Time-series

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