Search results for: total variation model.

Authors: Achouri Ryma, Hatem Dhaouadi, Hatem Mhiri, Philippe Bournot

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Stirred tanks are widely used in all industrial sectors. The need for further studies of the mixing operation and its different aspects comes from the diversity of agitation tools and implemented geometries in addition to the specific characteristics of each application. Viscous fluids are often encountered in industry and they represent the majority of treated cases, as in the polymer sector, food processing, pharmaceuticals and cosmetics. That's why in this paper, we will present a three-dimensional numerical study using the software Fluent, to study the effect of varying the fluid viscosity in a stirred tank with a Rushton turbine. This viscosity variation was performed by adding carboxymethylcellulose (CMC) to the fluid (water) in the vessel. In this work, we studied first the flow generated in the tank with a Rushton turbine. Second, we studied the effect of the fluid viscosity variation on the thermodynamic quantities defining the flow. For this, three viscosities (0.9% CMC, 1.1% CMC and 1.7% CMC) were considered.

Keywords: CFD, CMC, Mixing, Viscosity, Rushton turbine.

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Authors: Nurdin

Abstract:

Suppose G(V,E) is a graph, a function f : V \cup E \to \{1, 2, 3, \cdots, k\} is called the total edge(vertex) irregular k-labelling for G such that for each two edges are different having distinct weights. The total edge(vertex) irregularity strength of G, denoted by tes(G)(tvs(G), is the smallest k positive integers such that G has a total edge(vertex) irregular k-labelling. In this paper, we determined the total edge(vertex) irregularity strength of an amalgamation of two isomorphic cycles. The total edge irregularity strength and the total vertex irregularity strength of two isomorphic cycles on n vertices are \lceil (2n+2)/3 \rceil and \lceil 2n/3 \rceil for n \geq 3, respectively.

Keywords: Amalgamation of graphs, irregular labelling, irregularity strength.

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Authors: Sukrit Shankar, Chetana Shanta Patsa, K. Pardha Saradhi, Jaydev Sharma

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Fractional Fourier Transform is a powerful tool, which is a generalization of the classical Fourier Transform. This paper provides a mathematical relation relating the span in Fractional Fourier domain with the amplitude and phase functions of the signal, which is further used to study the variation of quality factor with different values of the transform order. It is seen that with the increase in the number of transients in the signal, the deviation of average Fractional Fourier span from the frequency bandwidth increases. Also, with the increase in the transient nature of the signal, the optimum value of transform order can be estimated based on the quality factor variation, and this value is found to be very close to that for which one can obtain the most compact representation. With the entire mathematical analysis and experimentation, we consolidate the fact that Fractional Fourier Transform gives more optimal representations for a number of transform orders than Fourier transform.

Keywords: Fractional Fourier Transform, Quality Factor, Fractional Fourier span, transient signals.

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Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

Abstract:

In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building. Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that no more than 7% prediction error of annual cooling/heating load will be caused by the geometric simplification for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which means this method is applicable for building performance simulation.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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Authors: Samson Okwakol Ariko, Venansius Baryamureeba

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Internet Access Technologies (IAT) provide a means through which Internet can be accessed. The choice of a suitable Internet technology is increasingly becoming an important issue to ISP clients. Currently, the choice of IAT is based on discretion and intuition of the concerned managers and the reliance on ISPs. In this paper we propose a model and designs algorithms that are used in the Internet access technology specification. In the proposed model, three ranking approaches are introduced; concurrent ranking, stepwise ranking and weighted ranking. The model ranks the IAT based on distance measures computed in ascending order while the global ranking system assigns weights to each IAT according to the position held in each ranking technique, determines the total weight of a particular IAT and ranks them in descending order. The final output is an objective ranking of IAT in descending order.

Keywords: Internet Access Technology (IAT).

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Authors: S. Sadi-Nezhad, K. Khalili Damghani, N. Pilevari

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In this article, a mathematical programming model for choosing an optimum portfolio of investments is developed. The investments are considered as investment projects. The uncertainties of the real world are associated through fuzzy concepts for coefficients of the proposed model (i. e. initial investment costs, profits, resource requirement, and total available budget). Model has been coded by using LINGO 11.0 solver. The results of a full analysis of optimistic and pessimistic derivative models are promising for selecting an optimum portfolio of projects in presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: Fuzzy Programming, Fuzzy Knapsack, FuzzyCapital Budgeting, Fuzzy Project Selection

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Authors: Keisuke Konishi, Yoshinari Hiroshiro, Kento Terashima, Atsushi Tsutsumi

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Imazu Bay plays an important role for endangered species such as horseshoe crabs and black-faced spoonbills that stay in the bay for spawning or the passing of winter. However, this bay is semi-enclosed with slow water exchange, which could lead to eutrophication under the condition of excess nutrient inflow to the bay. Therefore, quantification of nutrient inflow is of great importance. Generally, analysis of nutrient inflow to the bays takes into consideration nutrient inflow from only the river, but that from groundwater should not be ignored for more accurate results. The main objective of this study is to estimate the amounts of nutrient inflow from river and groundwater to Imazu Bay by analyzing water budget in Zuibaiji River Basin and loads of T-N, T-P, NO3-N and NH4-N. The water budget computation in the basin is performed using groundwater recharge model and quasi three-dimensional two-phase groundwater flow model, and the multiplication of the measured amount of nutrient inflow with the computed discharge gives the total amount of nutrient inflow to the bay. In addition, in order to evaluate nutrient inflow to the bay, the result is compared with nutrient inflow from geologically similar river basins. The result shows that the discharge is 3.50×107 m3/year from the river and 1.04×107 m3/year from groundwater. The submarine groundwater discharge accounts for approximately 23 % of the total discharge, which is large compared to the other river basins. It is also revealed that the total nutrient inflow is not particularly large. The sum of NO3-N and NH4-N loadings from groundwater is less than 10 % of that from the river because of denitrification in groundwater. The Shin Seibu Sewage Treatment Plant located below the observation points discharges treated water of 15,400 m3/day and plans to increase it. However, the loads of T-N and T-P from the treatment plant are 3.9 mg/L and 0.19 mg/L, so that it does not contribute a lot to eutrophication.

Keywords: Eutrophication, groundwater recharge model, nutrient inflow, quasi three-dimensional two-phase groundwater flow model, Submarine groundwater discharge.

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Authors: Y. Parish, F. Najaei Abadi

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This paper presents a numerical analysis of the seismic behaviour of earth dams. Analysis is conducted for the solid phase. It may correspond to the response of the dam before water filling. Analysis is conducted for a simple case which concerns the elastic response of the dam. Numerical analyses are conducted using the FLAC3D program. The behaviour of the Shell and core of the dam and the foundation behaviour is assumed to be elastic. Result shows the influence of the variation of the shear modulus of the core and shell on the seismic amplification of the dam. It can be observed that the variation of the shearing modulus of the core leads to a moderate increase in the dynamic amplification and the increase in the shell shearing modulus leads to a significant increase in the dynamic amplification.

Keywords: Numerical, earth dam, seismic, dynamic, core, FLAC3D.

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Authors: S. B. Mansuri

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In this paper, at first we explain about negative hypergeometric distribution and its properties. Then we use the w-function and the Stein identity to give a result on the poisson approximation to the negative hypergeometric distribution in terms of the total variation distance between the negative hypergeometric and poisson distributions and its upper bound.

Keywords: Negative hypergeometric distribution, Poisson distribution, Poisson approximation, Stein-Chen identity, w-function.

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Authors: Sajeena Beevi. B, Jose P. P., G. Madhu

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The aim of this study was to obtain the optimal conditions for biogas production from anaerobic digestion of organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) using response surface methodology (RSM). The parameters studied were initial pH, substrate concentration and total organic carbon (TOC). The experimental results showed that the linear model terms of initial pH and substrate concentration and the quadratic model terms of the substrate concentration and TOC had significant individual effect (p < 0.05) on biogas yield. However, there was no interactive effect between these variables (p > 0.05). The highest level of biogas produced was 53.4 L/Kg VS at optimum pH, substrate concentration and total organic carbon of 6.5, 99gTS/L and 20.32 g/L respectively.

Keywords: Anaerobic Digestion, Biogas, Optimization, Response Surface Methodology.

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Authors: M. Yousefi, N. Nasirzadeh

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In this paper, behavior of an oscillator under injection of another signal has been investigated. Also, variation of output signal amplitude versus injected signal phase variation, the effect of varying the amplitude of injected signal and quality factor of the oscillator has been investigated. The results show that the locking time depends on phase and the best locking time happens at 180-degrees phase. Also, the effect of injected lock has been discussed. Simulations show that the locking time decreases with signal injection to bulk. Locking time has been investigated versus various phase differences. The effect of phase and amplitude changes on locking time of a typical LC oscillator in 180 nm technology has been investigated.

Keywords: Injection-lock oscillator, oscillator, analysis, phase modulation.

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Authors: S. Ben Said, K. Ben Saad, M. Benrejeb

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This paper deals with bifurcation analyses in current programmed DC/DC Boost converter and exhibition of chaotic behavior. This phenomenon occurs due to variation of a set of the studied circuit parameters (input voltage and a reference current). Two different types of bifurcation paths have been observed as part as part of another bifurcation arising from variation of suitable chosen parameter.

Keywords: Bifurcation, Chaos, Boost converter, Current- programmed control, Initial parameters.

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Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, S. De Betta, E. Benini

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This paper presents a means for reducing the torque variation during the revolution of a vertical-axis water turbine (VAWaterT) by increasing the blade number. For this purpose, twodimensional CFD analyses have been performed on a straight-bladed Darrieus-type rotor. After describing the computational model and the relative validation procedure, a complete campaign of simulations, based on full RANS unsteady calculations, is proposed for a three, four and five-bladed rotor architectures, characterized by a NACA 0025 airfoil. For each proposed rotor configuration, flow field characteristics are investigated at several values of tip speed ratio, allowing a quantification of the influence of blade number on flow geometric features and dynamic quantities, such as rotor torque and power. Finally, torque and power curves are compared for the three analyzed architectures, achieving a quantification of the effect of blade number on overall rotor performance.

Keywords: Vertical-Axis Water Turbine, rotor solidity, CFD, NACA 0025

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Authors: Essa Abrahim Abdulgader Saleem, Thien-My Dao

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The main objective of this paper is to optimize series-parallel system reliability using Genetic Algorithm (GA) and statistical analysis; considering system reliability constraints which involve the redundant numbers of selected components, total cost, and total weight. To perform this work, firstly the mathematical model which maximizes system reliability subject to maximum system cost and maximum system weight constraints is presented; secondly, a statistical analysis is used to optimize GA parameters, and thirdly GA is used to optimize series-parallel systems reliability. The objective is to determine the strategy choosing the redundancy level for each subsystem to maximize the overall system reliability subject to total cost and total weight constraints. Finally, the series-parallel system case study reliability optimization results are showed, and comparisons with the other previous results are presented to demonstrate the performance of our GA.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, optimization, reliability, statistical analysis.

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Authors: Durvesh Kumar Verma, P. N. Agrawal

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In the present paper, we consider the generalized form of Baskakov Durrmeyer operators to study the rate of convergence, in simultaneous approximation for functions having derivatives of bounded variation.

Keywords: Bounded variation, Baskakov-Durrmeyer operators, simultaneous approximation, rate of convergence.

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Authors: M. Gomez, M. D. Murcia, E. Gomez, J. L. Gomez, N. Christofi

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Excilamps are new UV sources with great potential for application in wastewater treatment. In the present work, a XeBr excilamp emitting radiation at 283 nm has been used for the photodegradation of 4-chlorophenol within a range of concentrations from 50 to 500 mg L-1. Total removal of 4-chlorophenol was achieved for all concentrations assayed. The two main photoproduct intermediates formed along the photodegradation process, benzoquinone and hydroquinone, although not being completely removed, remain at very low residual concentrations. Such concentrations are insignificant compared to the 4-chlorophenol initial ones and non-toxic. In order to simulate the process and scaleup, a kinetic model has been developed and validated from the experimental data.

Keywords: 4-chlorophenol, excilamps, kinetic model, photodegradation.

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Authors: F. Rahimi Dehgolan, M. Behzadi, J. Fathi Sola

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In this article, the Johnson-Cook material model’s constants for structural steel ST.37 have been determined by a method which integrates experimental tests, numerical simulation, and optimization. In the first step, a quasi-static test was carried out on a plain specimen. Next, the constants were calculated for it by minimizing the difference between the results acquired from the experiment and numerical simulation. Then, a quasi-static tension test was performed on three notched specimens with different notch radii. At last, in order to verify the results, they were used in numerical simulation of notched specimens and it was observed that experimental and simulation results are in good agreement. Changing the diameter size of the plain specimen in the necking area was set as the objective function in the optimization step. For final validation of the proposed method, diameter variation was considered as a parameter and its sensitivity to a change in any of the model constants was examined and the results were completely corroborating.

Keywords: Constants, Johnson-Cook material model, notched specimens, quasi-static test, sensitivity.

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Authors: H. Ahmed, A. Schlenkhoff

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Recently, permeable breakwaters have been suggested to overcome the disadvantages of fully protection breakwaters. These protection structures have minor impacts on the coastal environment and neighboring beaches where they provide a more economical protection from waves and currents. For regular waves, a numerical model is used (FLOW-3D, VOF) to investigate the hydraulic performance of a permeable breakwater. The model of permeable breakwater consists of a pair of identical vertical slotted walls with an impermeable upper and lower part, where the draft is a decimal multiple of the total depth. The middle part is permeable with a porosity of 50%. The second barrier is located at distant of 0.5 and 1.5 of the water depth from the first one. The numerical model is validated by comparisons with previous laboratory data and semi-analytical results of the same model. A good agreement between the numerical results and both laboratory data and semi-analytical results has been shown and the results indicate the applicability of the numerical model to reproduce most of the important features of the interaction. Through the numerical investigation, the friction factor of the model is carefully discussed.

Keywords: Coastal structures, permeable breakwater, slotted wall, numerical model, energy dissipation coefficient.

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Authors: G. F. Guimarães, A. R. de Faria, R. R. Rego, A. L. R. D’Oliveira

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One of the most relevant phenomena in manufacturing is the residual stress state development through the manufacturing chain. In most cases, the residual stresses have their origin in the heterogenous plastification produced by the processes. Although a few manufacturing processes have been successfully approached by numerical modeling, there is still lack of understanding on how these processes' interactions will affect the final stress state. The objective of this work is to analyze the effect of the grinding procedure on the residual stress state generated by a quasi-static indentation. The model consists in a simplified approach of shot peening, modeling four cases with variations in indenter size and force. This model was validated through topography, measured by optical 3D focus-variation. The indentation model configured with two loads was then exposed to two grinding procedures and the result was analyzed. It was observed that the grinding procedure will have a significant effect on the stress state.

Keywords: plasticity, residual stress, finite element method, manufacturing

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Authors: Wongsakorn Charoenpanitseri

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The total chromatic number χ"(G) of a graph G is the minimum number of colors needed to color the elements (vertices and edges) of G such that no incident or adjacent pair of elements receive the same color Let G be a graph with maximum degree Δ(G). Considering a total coloring of G and focusing on a vertex with maximum degree. A vertex with maximum degree needs a color and all Δ(G) edges incident to this vertex need more Δ(G) + 1 distinct colors. To color all vertices and all edges of G, it requires at least Δ(G) + 1 colors. That is, χ"(G) is at least Δ(G) + 1. However, no one can find a graph G with the total chromatic number which is greater than Δ(G) + 2. The Total Coloring Conjecture states that for every graph G, χ"(G) is at most Δ(G) + 2. In this paper, we prove that the Total Coloring Conjectur for a Δ-claw-free 3-degenerated graph. That is, we prove that the total chromatic number of every Δ-claw-free 3-degenerated graph is at most Δ(G) + 2.

Keywords: Total colorings, the total chromatic number, 3-degenerated.

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Authors: Noor Azlina Mohd Salleh, Salmiah Kasolang, Ahmed Jaffar

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Integrated Total Quality Management (TQM) with Lean Manufacturing (LM) is a system comprises of TQM with LM principles and is associated with financial and nonfinancial performance measurement indicators. The ultimate goal of this system is to focus on achieving total customer satisfaction by removing eight wastes available in any process in an organization. A survey questionnaire was developed and distributed to 30 highly active automotive vendors in Malaysia and analyzed by PASW Statistics 18. It was found out that these vendors have been practicing and measuring the effectiveness TQM and LM implementation. More involvement of all Malaysian automotive vendors will represent the exact status of current Malaysian automotive industry in implementing TQM and LM and can determine whether the industry is ready for integrated TQM and LM system. This is the first study that combined 4 awards practices, ISO/TS16949, Toyota Production System and SAEJ4000.

Keywords: Automotive Industry, Lean Manufacturing, Operational Engineering Management, Total Quality Management

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Authors: Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, C. Ardil

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Financial forecasting is an example of signal processing problems. A number of ways to train/learn the network are available. We have used Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for error back-propagation for weight adjustment. Pre-processing of data has reduced much of the variation at large scale to small scale, reducing the variation of training data.

Keywords: Gradient descent method, jacobian matrix.Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, quadratic error surfaces,

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Authors: Junaid Rashid, Waqar Mehmood, Muhammad Wasif Nisar

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This survey paper shows the recent state of model comparison as it’s applies to Model Driven engineering. In Model Driven Engineering to calculate the difference between the models is a very important and challenging task. There are number of tasks involved in model differencing that firstly starts with identifying and matching the elements of the model. In this paper, we discuss how model matching is accomplished, the strategies, techniques and the types of the model. We also discuss the future direction. We found out that many of the latest model comparison strategies are geared near enabling Meta model and similarity based matching. Therefore model versioning is the most dominant application of the model comparison. Recently to work on comparison for versioning has begun to deteriorate, giving way to different applications. Ultimately there is wide change among the tools in the measure of client exertion needed to perform model comparisons, as some require more push to encourage more sweeping statement and expressive force.

Keywords: Model comparison, model clone detection, model versioning, EMF Model, model diff.

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Authors: Moustafa S. El-Sammany

Abstract:

Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated, investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was 10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between WRF model and real measurements results.

Keywords: Early warning system, Flash floods forecasting, WadiWatier, WRF model.

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Authors: Kuo-Cheng Liu

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Effective estimation of just noticeable distortion (JND) for images is helpful to increase the efficiency of a compression algorithm in which both the statistical redundancy and the perceptual redundancy should be accurately removed. In this paper, we design a DCT-based model for estimating JND profiles of color images. Based on a mathematical model of measuring the base detection threshold for each DCT coefficient in the color component of color images, the luminance masking adjustment, the contrast masking adjustment, and the cross masking adjustment are utilized for luminance component, and the variance-based masking adjustment based on the coefficient variation in the block is proposed for chrominance components. In order to verify the proposed model, the JND estimator is incorporated into the conventional JPEG coder to improve the compression performance. A subjective and fair viewing test is designed to evaluate the visual quality of the coding image under the specified viewing condition. The simulation results show that the JPEG coder integrated with the proposed DCT-based JND model gives better coding bit rates at visually lossless quality for a variety of color images.

Keywords: Just-noticeable distortion (JND), discrete cosine transform (DCT), JPEG.

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Authors: Abdallah Al-Shammari

Abstract:

This study discusses the effect of uncertainty on production levels of a petrochemical complex. Uncertainly or variations in some model parameters, such as prices, supply and demand of materials, can affect the optimality or the efficiency of any chemical process. For any petrochemical complex with many plants, there are many sources of uncertainty and frequent variations which require more attention. Many optimization approaches are proposed in the literature to incorporate uncertainty within the model in order to obtain a robust solution. In this work, a stability analysis approach is applied to a deterministic LP model of a petrochemical complex consists of ten plants to investigate the effect of such variations on the obtained optimal production levels. The proposed approach can determinate the allowable variation ranges of some parameters, mainly objective or RHS coefficients, before the system lose its optimality. Parameters with relatively narrow range of variations, i.e. stability limits, are classified as sensitive parameters or constraints that need accurate estimate or intensive monitoring. These stability limits offer easy-to-use information to the decision maker and help in understanding the interaction between some model parameters and deciding when the system need to be re-optimize. The study shows that maximum production of ethylene and the prices of intermediate products are the most sensitive factors that affect the stability of the optimum solution

Keywords: Linear programming, Petrochemicals, stability analysis, uncertainty

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Farzami Pour

Abstract:

Determination of genetic variation is useful for plant breeding and hence production of more efficient plant species under different conditions, like drought stress. In this study a sample of 28 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) of wheat developed from the cross of Norstar and Zagross varieties, together with their parents, were evaluated for two years (2010-2012) under normal and water stress conditions using split plot design with three replications. Main plots included two irrigation treatments of 70 and 140 mm evaporation from Class A pan and sub-plots consisted of 30 genotypes. The effect of genotypes and interaction of genotypes with years and water regimes were significant for all characters. Significant genotypic effect implies the existence of genetic variation among the lines under study. Heritability estimates were high for 1000 grain weight (0.87). Biomass and grain yield showed the lowest heritability values (0.42 and 0.50, respectively). Highest genotypic and phenotypic coefficients of variation (GCV and PCV) belonged to harvest index. Moderate genetic advance for most of the traits suggested the feasibility of selection among the RILs under investigation. Some RILs were higher yielding than either parent at both environments.

Keywords: Wheat, genetic gain, heritability, recombinant inbred lines.

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Authors: F. Sangiorgio, J. Silfwerbrand, G. Mancini

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Geometric and mechanical properties all influence the resistance of RC structures and may, in certain combination of property values, increase the risk of a brittle failure of the whole system. This paper presents a statistical and probabilistic investigation on the resistance of RC beams designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8, and subjected to multiple failure modes, under both the natural variation of material properties and the uncertainty associated with cross-section and transverse reinforcement geometry. A full probabilistic model based on JCSS Probabilistic Model Code is derived. Different beams are studied through material nonlinear analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. The resistance model is consistent with Eurocode 2. Both a multivariate statistical evaluation and the data clustering analysis of outcomes are then performed. Results show that the ultimate load behaviour of RC beams subjected to flexural and shear failure modes seems to be mainly influenced by the combination of the mechanical properties of both longitudinal reinforcement and stirrups, and the tensile strength of concrete, of which the latter appears to affect the overall response of the system in a nonlinear way. The model uncertainty of the resistance model used in the analysis plays undoubtedly an important role in interpreting results.

Keywords: Modelling, Monte Carlo Simulations, Probabilistic Models, Data Clustering, Reinforced Concrete Members, Structural Design.

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Authors: Peter Podbreznik, Božidar Potocnik

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The camera parameters are changed due to temperature variations, which directly influence calibrated cameras accuracy. Robustness of calibration methods were measured and their accuracy was tested. An error ratio due to camera parameters change with respect to total error originated during calibration process was determined. It pointed out that influence of temperature variations decrease by increasing distance of observed objects from cameras.

Keywords: camera calibration, perspective projection matrix, epipolar geometry, temperature variation.

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Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

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Bayesian networks are now considered to be a promising tool in the field of energy with different applications. In this study, the aim was to indicate the states of a previous constructed Bayesian network related to the solar energy in Egypt and the factors affecting its market share, depending on the followed data distribution type for each factor, and using either the Z-distribution approach or the Chebyshev’s inequality theorem. Later on, the separate and the conditional probabilities of the states of each factor in the Bayesian network were derived, either from the collected and scrapped historical data or from estimations and past studies. Results showed that we could use the constructed model for scenario and decision analysis concerning forecasting the total percentage of the market share of the solar energy in Egypt by 2035 and using it as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed. Also, it proved that whenever the use of the solar energy increases, the total costs decreases. Furthermore, we have identified different scenarios, such as the best, worst, 50/50, and most likely one, in terms of the expected changes in the percentage of the solar energy market share. The best scenario showed an 85% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market, while the worst scenario showed only a 24% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market. Furthermore, we applied policy analysis to check the effect of changing the controllable (decision) variable’s states acting as different scenarios, to show how it would affect the target nodes in the model. Additionally, the best environmental and economical scenarios were developed to show how other factors are expected to be, in order to affect the model positively. Additional evidence and derived probabilities were added for the weather dynamic nodes whose states depend on time, during the process of converting the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network.

Keywords: Bayesian network, Chebyshev, decision variable, dynamic Bayesian network, Z-distribution

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