Search results for: temporary price reduction

Authors: Jin Woong Lee, Kyuman Cho, Taehoon Kim

Abstract:

The application of constructability is increasingly required not only in the construction phase but also in the whole project stage. In particular, the proper application of construction experience and knowledge during the design phase enables the minimization of inefficiencies such as design changes and improvements in constructability during the construction phase. In order to apply knowledge effectively, engineering technology efforts should be implemented with design progress. Among many engineering technologies, engineering for temporary works, including facilities, equipment, and other related construction methods, is important to improve constructability. Therefore, as basic research, this study investigates the applicability of temporary work engineering during the design phase in the building construction industry. As a result, application of temporary work engineering has a greater impact on construction cost reduction and constructability improvement. In contrast to the existing design-bid-build method, the turn-key and CM (construct management) procurement methods currently being implemented in Korea are expected to have a significant impact on the direction of temporary work engineering. To introduce temporary work engineering, expert/professional organization training is first required, and a lack of client awareness should be preferentially improved. The results of this study are expected to be useful as reference material for the development of more effective temporary work engineering tasks and work processes in the future.

Keywords: Temporary work engineering, design phase, constructability, building construction.

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Authors: Goodness C. Aye

Abstract:

This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: Oil price volatility, Food price, Bivariate GARCH-in- mean VAR, Asymmetric.

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Authors: Farzaneh Hadafi, Alireza Fallahi

Abstract:

Natural Disasters have always occurred through earth life. As human life developed on earth, he faced with different disasters. Since disasters would destroy his living areas and ruin his life, he learned how to respond and overcome to these matters. Nowadays, in the era of industrialized world and informatics, the man kind seeks for stages and classification of pre and post disaster process in order to identify a framework in these circumstances. Because too many parameters complicate these frameworks and proceedings, it seems that this goal has not been properly established yet and the only resource is guidelines of UNDRO (1982) [1]. This paper will discuss about temporary housing as one of an approved stage in disaster management field and investigate the affects of disapproval or dismissal of this at two earthquakes which took place in Iran.

Keywords: Temporary Housing, Temporary Sheltering, DisasterManagement, Iran

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Authors: R. Sammoura

Abstract:

In Lebanon, public construction projects are awarded to the contractor submitting the lowest bid price based on a competitive bidding process. The contractor has to make a strategic decision in choosing the appropriate bid price that will offer a satisfactory profit with a greater probability to win. A simulation model for bid price decision making based on the lowest bid price evaluation is developed. The model, built using Crystal Ball decisionengineering software, considers two main factors affecting the bidding process: the number of qualified bidders and the size of the project. The validity of the model is tested on twelve separate projects. The study also shows how to use the model to conduct risk analysis and help any specific contractor to decide on his bid price with associated certainty level in a scientific method.

Keywords: Bid price, Competition, Decision making, Simulation.

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Authors: Chien-Hui Yang, Che-Yang Lin, Ya-Chen Hsu

Abstract:

Gold passbook is an investing tool that is especially suitable for investors to do small investment in the solid gold. The gold passbook has the lower risk than other ways investing in gold, but its price is still affected by gold price. However, there are many factors can cause influences on gold price. Therefore, building a model to predict the price of gold passbook can both reduce the risk of investment and increase the benefits. This study investigates the important factors that influence the gold passbook price, and utilize the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) to build the predictive model. This method can not only obtain the significant variables but also perform well in prediction. Finally, the significant variables of gold passbook price, which can be predicted by GMDH, are US dollar exchange rate, international petroleum price, unemployment rate, whole sale price index, rediscount rate, foreign exchange reserves, misery index, prosperity coincident index and industrial index.

Keywords: Gold price, Gold passbook price, Group Method ofData Handling (GMDH), Regression.

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Authors: Revoti Prasad Bora, Nikita Katyal

Abstract:

Promotion is a key element in the retail business. Thus, analysis of promotions to quantify their effectiveness in terms of Revenue and/or Margin is an essential activity in the retail industry. However, measuring the sales/revenue uplift is based on estimations, as the actual sales/revenue without the promotion is not present. Further, the presence of Halo and Cannibalization in a multiple parallel promotions’ scenario complicates the problem. Calculating Baseline by considering inter-brand/competitor items or using Halo and Cannibalization's impact on Revenue calculations by considering Baseline as an interpretation of items’ unit sales in neighboring nonpromotional weeks individually may not capture the overall Revenue uplift in the case of multiple parallel promotions. Hence, this paper proposes a Machine Learning based method for calculating the Revenue uplift by considering the Halo and Cannibalization impact on the Baseline and the Revenue. In the first section of the proposed methodology, Baseline of an item is calculated by incorporating the impact of the promotions on its related items. In the later section, the Revenue of an item is calculated by considering both Halo and Cannibalization impacts. Hence, this methodology enables correct calculation of the overall Revenue uplift due a given promotion.

Keywords: Halo, cannibalization, promotion, baseline, temporary price reduction, retail, elasticity, cross price elasticity, machine learning, random forest, linear regression.

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Authors: H. D. Ibrahim, H. C. Chinwenyi, T. Danjuma

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An option is defined as a financial contract that provides the holder the right but not the obligation to buy or sell a specified quantity of an underlying asset in the future at a fixed price (called a strike price) on or before the expiration date of the option. This paper examined two approaches for derivation of Partial Differential Equation (PDE) options price valuation formula for the Heston stochastic volatility model. We obtained various PDE option price valuation formulas using the riskless portfolio method and the application of Feynman-Kac theorem respectively. From the results obtained, we see that the two derived PDEs for Heston model are distinct and non-unique. This establishes the fact of incompleteness in the model for option price valuation.

Keywords: Option price valuation, Partial Differential Equations, Black-Scholes PDEs, Ito process.

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Authors: Jung-Hun Cho, Tae-Heon Moon, Jin-Hak Lee

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Land price contains the comprehensive characteristics of urban space, representing the social and economic features of the city. Accordingly, land price can be utilized as an indicator, which can identify the changes of spatial structure and socioeconomic variations caused by urban development. This study attempted to explore the changes in land price by a new road construction. Methodologically, it adopted Space Syntax, which can interpret urban spatial structure comprehensively, to identify the relationship between the forms of road networks and land price. The result of the regression analysis showed the ‘integration index’ of Space Syntax is statistically significant and has a strong correlation with land price. If the integration value is high, land price increases proportionally. Subsequently, using regression equation, it tried to predict the land price changes of each of the lots surrounding the roads that are newly opened. The research methods or study results have the advantage of predicting the changes in land price in an easy way. In addition, it will contribute to planners and project managers to establish relevant polices and smoothing urban regeneration projects through enhancing residents’ understanding by providing possible results and advantages in their land price before the execution of urban regeneration and development projects.

Keywords: Space syntax, urban regeneration, spatial structure, official land price.

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Authors: M’hamed Outanoute, Mohamed Baslam, Belaid Bouikhalene

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The customers use the best compromise criterion between price and quality of service (QoS) to select or change their Service Provider (SP). The SPs share the same market and are competing to attract more customers to gain more profit. Due to the divergence of SPs interests, we believe that this situation is a non-cooperative game of price and QoS. The game converges to an equilibrium position known Nash Equilibrium (NE). In this work, we formulate a game theoretic framework for the dynamical behaviors of SPs. We use Genetic Algorithms (GAs) to find the price and QoS strategies that maximize the profit for each SP and illustrate the corresponding strategy in NE. In order to quantify how this NE point is performant, we perform a detailed analysis of the price of anarchy induced by the NE solution. Finally, we provide an extensive numerical study to point out the importance of considering price and QoS as a joint decision parameter.

Keywords: Pricing, QoS, Market share game, Genetic algorithms, Nash equilibrium, Learning, Price of anarchy.

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Authors: Muhammad Hammad Lakhvi

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Islam has a general principle of increase in population. But the Muslims are equally obliged to take care of health, education and the provisions etc. for their offspring and wives in the best possible way. The Muslims would have to regulate and manage the number of children, if any situation affects their duties regarding their wives or children. Islam accomplishes permissibility of temporary blockade in human fertility if someone faces any problem regarding health of mother or children. During the life of the Holy Prophet (SAW), Azl (coitus interruptus) was the only way for temporary spacing between the children. In technologically developed environment, the same can be resort through some advanced methodology or instrument of temporary blockade. Solid grounds are available in Islam that the fertility rate should be managed if any of the aspect of human quality is being affected.

Keywords: Islam, Fertility Regulations, Muslims, Qur'an

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Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi

Abstract:

In this paper, the BP neural network model is established to predict the carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City. First of all, we find the data of carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City from September 30, 2015 to December 23, 2016. The carbon trading price and trading volume data were processed to get the average value of each 5, 10, 20, 30, and 60 carbon trading price and trading volume. Then, these data are used as input of BP neural network model. Finally, after the training of BP neural network, the prediction values of Shanghai carbon trading price and trading volume are obtained, and the model is tested.

Keywords: Carbon trading price, carbon trading volume, BP neural network model, Shanghai City.

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Authors: R. A. Sabir , X. Xinping , S.A. Sabr

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This paper has presented research in progress concerning the contribution of target costing approach to achievement competitive price in the Iraqi firm. The title of the paper is one of the subjects that get large concerns in the finance and business world in the present time. That is because many competitive firms have appeared in the regional and global markets and the rapid changes that covered all fields of life. On the other hand, this paper concentrated on lack knowledge of the industrial firms, regarding the significant role of target cost for achieving the competitive prices. The paper depends on the main supposition, using the competitive price to get the target cost in the industrial firms. In order to achieve competitive advantage in business world the firms should rely on modern methods to manage cost and profit. From strategic perspective the target cost achieves a so powerful competitive advantage represented in cost reduction. Nevertheless the target cost does not exclude the calculation and survey of costs during the production process. Products- estimated costs are calculated and compared with the target costs.

Keywords: Target Costing, Competitive Price, Target Profit, Iraq Kurdistan Region.

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Authors: R. Inkum, A. Teerawutgulrag, P. Puangsombat, N. Rakariyatham

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Propranolol is worldwide hypertension drug that is active in S-isomer. Patients must use this drug throughout their lives, and this action employsa significant level of expenditure. A simpler synthesis and lower cost can reduce the price for the patient. A sis pathway of S-propranolol starting from protection of (R,S)-propranolol with di-t-butyldicarbonate and then the product is oxidized with pyridiniumchlorochromate. The selective reduction of ketone occurrs with sodiumborohydride in the presence of metal chloride provided S-propranolol.

Keywords: S-propranolol, selective reduction, sodium borohydride, metal chloride

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Authors: Larisa N. Pop, Irina M. Ban

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This paper aims to present the main instruments used in the economic literature for measuring the price risk, pointing out on the advantages brought by the conditional variance in this respect. The theoretical approach will be exemplified by elaborating an EGARCH model for the price returns of wheat, both on Romanian and on international market. To our knowledge, no previous empirical research, either on price risk measurement for the Romanian markets or studies that use the ARIMA-EGARCH methodology, have been conducted. After estimating the corresponding models, the paper will compare the estimated conditional variance on the two markets.

Keywords: conditional variance, GARCH models, price risk, volatility

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Authors: N. Mungkung, S. Wongcharoen., Tanes Tanitteerapan, C. Saejao, D. Arunyasot

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The condition of lightning surge causes the traveling waves and the temporary increase in voltage in the transmission line system. Lightning is the most harmful for destroying the transmission line and setting devices so it is necessary to study and analyze the temporary increase in voltage for designing and setting the surge arrester. This analysis describes the figure of the lightning wave in transmission line with 115 kV voltage level in Thailand by using ATP/EMTP program to create the model of the transmission line and lightning surge. Because of the limit of this program, it must be calculated for the geometry of the transmission line and surge parameter and calculation in the manual book for the closest value of the parameter. On the other hand, for the effects on surge protector when the lightning comes, the surge arrester model must be right and standardized as metropolitan electrical authority's standard. The candidate compared the real information to the result from calculation, also. The results of the analysis show that the temporary increase in voltage value will be rise to 326.59 kV at the line which is done by lightning when the surge arrester is not set in the system. On the other hand, the temporary increase in voltage value will be 182.83 kV at the line which is done by lightning when the surge arrester is set in the system and the period of the traveling wave is reduced, also. The distance for setting the surge arrester must be as near to the transformer as possible. Moreover, it is necessary to know the right distance for setting the surge arrester and the size of the surge arrester for preventing the temporary increase in voltage, effectively.

Keywords: Lightning surge, surge arrester, electrical power system, ATP/EMTP program.

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Authors: Ebrahim Abbasi, Amir Abouec

Abstract:

In this research, the researchers have managed to design a model to investigate the current trend of stock price of the "IRAN KHODRO corporation" at Tehran Stock Exchange by utilizing an Adaptive Neuro - Fuzzy Inference system. For the Longterm Period, a Neuro-Fuzzy with two Triangular membership functions and four independent Variables including trade volume, Dividend Per Share (DPS), Price to Earning Ratio (P/E), and also closing Price and Stock Price fluctuation as an dependent variable are selected as an optimal model. For the short-term Period, a neureo – fuzzy model with two triangular membership functions for the first quarter of a year, two trapezoidal membership functions for the Second quarter of a year, two Gaussian combination membership functions for the third quarter of a year and two trapezoidal membership functions for the fourth quarter of a year were selected as an optimal model for the stock price forecasting. In addition, three independent variables including trade volume, price to earning ratio, closing Stock Price and a dependent variable of stock price fluctuation were selected as an optimal model. The findings of the research demonstrate that the trend of stock price could be forecasted with the lower level of error.

Keywords: Stock Price forecast, membership functions, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, trade volume, P/E, DPS.

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Authors: Li Li, Kai-Hsuan Chu

Abstract:

It is well known that the real estate price depends on a lot of factors. Each house current value is dependent on the location, room number, transportation, living convenience, year and surrounding environments. Although, there are different experienced models for housing agent to estimate the price, it is a case by case study without overall dynamic variation investigation. However, many economic parameters may more or less influence the real estate price variation. Here, the influences of most macroeconomic parameters on real estate price are investigated individually based on least-square scheme and grey correlation strategy. Then those parameters are classified into leading indices, simultaneous indices and laggard indices. In addition, the leading time period is evaluated based on least square method. The important leading and simultaneous indices can be used to establish an artificial intelligent neural network model for real estate price variation prediction. The real estate price variation of Taipei, Taiwan during 2005 ~ 2017 are chosen for this research data analysis and validation. The results show that the proposed method has reasonable prediction function for real estate business reference.

Keywords: Real estate price, least-square, grey correlation, macroeconomics.

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Authors: Wen-Chi Liu

Abstract:

This paper aims to examine whether a bubble is present in the housing market of China. Thus, we use the housing  price-to-income ratios and housing price-to-rent ratios of 35 cities from 1998 to 2010. The methods of the panel KSS unit root test with a  Fourier function and the SPSM process are likewise used. The panel  KSS unit root test with a Fourier function considers the problem of  non-linearity and structural changes, and the SPSM process can avoid  the stationary time series from dominating the result-generated bias.  Through a rigorous empirical study, we determine that the housing  price-to-income ratios are stationary in 34 of the 35 cities in China.  Only Xining is non-stationary. The housing price-to-rent ratios are  stationary in 32 of the 35 cities in China. Chengdu, Fuzhou, and  Zhengzhou are non-stationary. Overall, the housing bubbles are not a  serious problem in China at the time.

 

Keywords: Housing Price-to-Income Ratio, Housing Price-to-Rent Ratio, Housing Bubbles, Panel Unit-Root Test.

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Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

Abstract:

In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: Equivalent Martingale Measure, European Put Option, Girsanov Theorem, Martingales, Monte Carlo method, option price valuation, option price valuation formula.

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Authors: Ernawati Mustafa Kamal, Hasnanywati Hassan, Atasya Osmadi

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The housing industry is crucial for sustainable development of every country. Housing is a basic need that can enhance the quality of life. Owning a house is therefore the main aim of individuals. However, affordability has become a critical issue towards homeownership. In recent years, housing price in the main cities has increased tremendously to unaffordable level. This paper investigates factors influencing the housing price from developer’s perspective and provides recommendation on strategies to tackle this issue. Online and face-to-face survey was conducted on housing developers operating in Penang, Malaysia. The results indicate that (1) location; (2) macroeconomics factor; (3) demographic factors; (4) land/zoning and; (5) industry factors are the main factors influencing the housing price. This paper contributes towards better understanding on developers’ view on how the housing price is determined and form a basis for government to help tackle the housing affordability issue.

Keywords: Factors influencing house price, housing affordability, housing developers, Malaysia.

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Authors: Roger L Goodwin

Abstract:

The US Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) measures hundreds of items in the US economy. Many social programs and government benefits index to the CPIs. The purpose of this project is to modernize an existing process. This paper will show the development of a small, visual, software product that documents the Economic Price Adjustment (EPA) for longterm contracts. The existing workbook does not provide the flexibility to calculate EPAs where the base-month and the option-month are different. Nor does the workbook provide automated error checking. The small, visual, software product provides the additional flexibility and error checking. This paper presents the feedback to project.

Keywords: Consumer Price Index, Economic Price Adjustment, contracts, visualization tools, database, reports, forms, event procedures.

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Authors: S. Homrossukon, W. Parinyasart

Abstract:

This is an applied research to propose the method for price quotation for a contract electronics manufacturer. It has had a precise price quoting method but such method could not quickly provide a result as the customer required. This reduces the ability of company to compete in this kind of business. In this case, the cause of long time quotation process was analyzed. A lot of product features have been demanded by customer. By checking routine processes, it was found that high fraction of quoting time was used for production time estimating which has effected to the manufacturing or production cost. Then the historical data of products including types, number of components, assembling method, and their assembling time were used to analyze the key components affecting to production time. The price quoting model then was proposed. The implementation of proposed model was able to remarkably reduce quoting time with an acceptable required precision.

Keywords: Price quoting, Contract manufacturer, Stepwise technique, Best subset technique.

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Authors: S. Pathomsiri, P. Sukaboon

Abstract:

The National Blood Center, Thai Red Cross Society is responsible for providing blood to hospitals all over the country. When any hospital needs blood, it will have to send the vehicle to pick up at the NBC. There are a lot of vehicles to pick up blood at the NBC every day. Each vehicle is usually empty for inbound trip and a little loaded for outbound. The NBC realized such waste or loss and there have been the third party offered to distribute blood and charge for fee. This paper proposes to apply the vehicle routing problem (VRP) for estimating the fair price. The idea is tested with the real data during seven-day period of 6 – 12 July 2010 to estimate the fair price for transporting blood in Bangkok Metropolitan Region.

Keywords: Blood Supply Chain, Vehicle Routing Problem, Heuristic, Saving Algorithm, Fair Price.

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

Abstract:

The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: Classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction.

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Authors: Jingxian An, Wei Yu

Abstract:

The commercial value (retail price) of wine is mostly determined by the wine quality, ageing potential, and oak influence. This paper reveals that wine quality, ageing potential, and oak influence are favourably correlated, hence positively influencing the commercial value of Pinot noir wines. Oak influence is the most influential of these three sensory attributes on the price set by wine traders and estimated by experienced customers. In the meanwhile, this study gives winemakers with chemical instructions for raising total phenolics, which can improve wine quality, ageing potential, and oak influence, all of which can increase a wine’s economic worth.

Keywords: Retail price, ageing potential, wine quality, oak influence.

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Authors: Tru C. Le, France Cheong

Abstract:

Although the Vietnamese catfish farming has grown at very high rates in recent years, the industry has also faced many problems affecting its sustainability. This paper studies the perceptions of catfish farmers regarding risk and risk management strategies in their production activities. Specifically, the study aims to measure the consequences, likelihoods, and levels of risks as well as the efficacy of risk management in Vietnamese catfish farming. Data for the study were collected through a sample of 261 catfish farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam using a questionnaire survey in 2008. Results show that, in general, price and production risks were perceived as the most important risks. Farm management and technical measures were perceived more effective than other kinds of risk management strategies in risk reduction. Although price risks were rated as important risks, price risk management strategies were not perceived as important measures for risk mitigation. The results of the study are discussed to provide implications for various industry stakeholders, including policy makers, processors, advisors, and developers of new risk management strategies.

Keywords: Aquaculture, catfish farming, sources of risk, riskmanagement, risk strategies, risk mitigation.

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Authors: A. Rabin, G. Mazor, I. Ladizhenski, R. Z. Shneck

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The hardness and hardenability of AISI D2 cold work tool steel with conventional quenching (CQ), deep cryogenic quenching (DCQ) and rapid deep cryogenic quenching heat treatments caused by temporary porous coating based on magnesium sulfate was investigated. Each of the cooling processes was examined from the perspective of the full process efficiency, heat flux in the austenite-martensite transformation range followed by characterization of the temporary porous layer made of magnesium sulfate using confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM), surface and core hardness and hardenability using Vickers hardness technique. The results show that the cooling rate (CR) at the austenite-martensite transformation range has a high influence on the hardness of the studied steel.

Keywords: AISI D2, controllable cooling, magnesium sulfate coating, rapid cryogenic heat treatment, temporary porous layer.

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Authors: F. Rahnamay Roodposhti, M. Falah Shams, H. Kordlouie

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The aim of the article is extending and developing econometrics and network structure based methods which are able to distinguish price manipulation in Tehran stock exchange. The principal goal of the present study is to offer model for approximating price manipulation in Tehran stock exchange. In order to do so by applying separation method a sample consisting of 397 companies accepted at Tehran stock exchange were selected and information related to their price and volume of trades during years 2001 until 2009 were collected and then through performing runs test, skewness test and duration correlative test the selected companies were divided into 2 sets of manipulated and non manipulated companies. In the next stage by investigating cumulative return process and volume of trades in manipulated companies, the date of starting price manipulation was specified and in this way the logit model, artificial neural network, multiple discriminant analysis and by using information related to size of company, clarity of information, ratio of P/E and liquidity of stock one year prior price manipulation; a model for forecasting price manipulation of stocks of companies present in Tehran stock exchange were designed. At the end the power of forecasting models were studied by using data of test set. Whereas the power of forecasting logit model for test set was 92.1%, for artificial neural network was 94.1% and multi audit analysis model was 90.2%; therefore all of the 3 aforesaid models has high power to forecast price manipulation and there is no considerable difference among forecasting power of these 3 models.

Keywords: Price Manipulation, Liquidity, Size of Company, Floating Stock, Information Clarity

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Authors: Saska Alexandria Hayes

Abstract:

Multiple Convention Refugees in New Zealand are stuck in a state of immigration limbo due to a lack of defined immigration policies. The Refugee Convention of 1951 does not give the right to be issued a permanent right to live and work in the country of asylum. A gap in New Zealand's immigration law and policy has left Convention Refugees without the right to obtain a resident or temporary entry visa. The significant lack of literature on this topic suggests that the lack of visa options for Convention Refugees in New Zealand is a widely unknown or unacknowledged issue. Refugees in New Zealand enjoy the right of non-refoulement contained in Article 33 of the Refugee Convention 1951, whether lawful or unlawful. However, a number of rights contained in the Refugee Convention 1951, such as the right to gainful employment and social security, are limited to refugees who maintain lawful immigration status. If a Convention Refugee is denied a resident visa, the only temporary entry visa a Convention Refugee can apply for in New Zealand is discretionary. The appeal cases heard at the Immigration Protection Tribunal establish that Immigration New Zealand has declined resident and discretionary temporary entry visa applications by Convention Refugees for failing to meet the health or character immigration instructions. The inability of a Convention Refugee to gain residency in New Zealand creates a dependence on the issue of discretionary temporary entry visas to maintain lawful status. The appeal cases record that this reliance has led to Convention Refugees' lawful immigration status being in question, temporarily depriving them of the rights contained in the Refugee Convention 1951 of lawful refugees. In one case, the process of applying for a discretionary temporary entry visa led to a lawful Convention Refugee being temporarily deprived of the right to social security, breaching Article 24 of the Refugee Convention 1951. The judiciary has stated a constant reliance on the issue of discretionary temporary entry visas for Convention Refugees can lead to a breach of New Zealand's international obligations under Article 7 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. The appeal cases suggest that, despite successful judicial proceedings, at least three persons have been made to rely on the issue of discretionary temporary entry visas potentially indefinitely. The appeal cases establish that a Convention Refugee can be denied a discretionary temporary entry visa and become unlawful. Unlawful status could ultimately breach New Zealand's obligations under Article 33 of the Refugee Convention 1951 as it would procedurally deny Convention Refugees asylum. It would force them to choose between the right of non-refoulement or leaving New Zealand to seek the ability to access all the human rights contained in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights elsewhere. This paper discusses how the current system has given rise to these breaches and emphasizes a need to create a designated temporary entry visa category for Convention Refugees.

Keywords: Domestic policy, immigration, migration, New Zealand.

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Authors: Y. Duvarci, S. Mizokami

Abstract:

Traffic enforcement units (the Police) are partly responsible for the severity and frequency of the traffic accidents via the effectiveness of their safety measures. The Police claims that the reductions in accidents and their severities occur largely by their timely interventions at the black spots, through traffic management or temporary changes in the road design (guiding, reducing speeds and eliminating sight obstructions, etc.). Yet, some other external factors than the Police measures may intervene into which such claims require a statistical confirmation. In order to test the net impact of the Police contribution in the reduction of the number of crashes, Chi square test was applied for 25 spots (streets and intersections) and an average evaluation was achieved for general conclusion in the case study of Izmir city. Separately, the net impact of economic crisis in the reduction of crashes is assessed by the trend analysis for the case of the economic crisis with the probable reduction effects on the trip generation or modal choice. Finally, it was proven that the Police measures were effective to some degree as they claimed, though the economic crisis might have only negligible contribution to the reductions in the same period observed.

Keywords: Road Safety, Police, Enforcement units, Chi Squaretest, Economic Impact.

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