Search results for: stochastic programming problem with recourse
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4098

Search results for: stochastic programming problem with recourse

3948 A Dual Method for Solving General Convex Quadratic Programs

Authors: Belkacem Brahmi, Mohand Ouamer Bibi

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a new method for solving quadratic programming problems, not strictly convex. Constraints of the problem are linear equalities and inequalities, with bounded variables. The suggested method combines the active-set strategies and support methods. The algorithm of the method and numerical experiments are presented, while comparing our approach with the active set method on randomly generated problems.

Keywords: Convex quadratic programming, dual support methods, active set methods.

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3947 Stochastic Optimization of a Vendor-Managed Inventory Problem in a Two-Echelon Supply Chain

Authors: Bita Payami-Shabestari, Dariush Eslami

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-product economic production quantity model under vendor management inventory policy and restrictions including limited warehouse space, budget, and number of orders, average shortage time and maximum permissible shortage. Since the “costs” cannot be predicted with certainty, it is assumed that data behave under uncertain environment. The problem is first formulated into the framework of a bi-objective of multi-product economic production quantity model. Then, the problem is solved with three multi-objective decision-making (MODM) methods. Then following this, three methods had been compared on information on the optimal value of the two objective functions and the central processing unit (CPU) time with the statistical analysis method and the multi-attribute decision-making (MADM). The results are compared with statistical analysis method and the MADM. The results of the study demonstrate that augmented-constraint in terms of optimal value of the two objective functions and the CPU time perform better than global criteria, and goal programming. Sensitivity analysis is done to illustrate the effect of parameter variations on the optimal solution. The contribution of this research is the use of random costs data in developing a multi-product economic production quantity model under vendor management inventory policy with several constraints.

Keywords: Economic production quantity, random cost, supply chain management, vendor-managed inventory.

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3946 Fighter Aircraft Selection Using Fuzzy Preference Optimization Programming (POP)

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

The Turkish Air Force needs to acquire a sixth- generation fighter aircraft in order to maintain its air superiority and dominance against its rivals under the risks posed by global geopolitical opportunities and threats. Accordingly, five evaluation criteria were determined to evaluate the sixth-generation fighter aircraft alternatives and to select the best one. Systematically, a new fuzzy preference optimization programming (POP) method is proposed to select the best sixth generation fighter aircraft in an uncertain environment. The POP technique considers both quantitative and qualitative evaluation criteria. To demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach, it is applied to a multiple criteria decision-making problem to evaluate and select sixth-generation fighter aircraft. The results of the fuzzy POP method are compared with the results of the fuzzy TOPSIS approach to validate it. According to the comparative analysis, fuzzy POP and fuzzy TOPSIS methods get the same results. This demonstrates the applicability of the fuzzy POP technique to address the sixth-generation fighter selection problem.

Keywords: Fighter aircraft selection, sixth-generation fighter aircraft, fuzzy decision process, multiple criteria decision making, preference optimization programming, POP, TOPSIS, Kizilelma, MIUS, fuzzy set theory

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3945 Multiple Sequence Alignment Using Optimization Algorithms

Authors: M. F. Omar, R. A. Salam, R. Abdullah, N. A. Rashid

Abstract:

Proteins or genes that have similar sequences are likely to perform the same function. One of the most widely used techniques for sequence comparison is sequence alignment. Sequence alignment allows mismatches and insertion/deletion, which represents biological mutations. Sequence alignment is usually performed only on two sequences. Multiple sequence alignment, is a natural extension of two-sequence alignment. In multiple sequence alignment, the emphasis is to find optimal alignment for a group of sequences. Several applicable techniques were observed in this research, from traditional method such as dynamic programming to the extend of widely used stochastic optimization method such as Genetic Algorithms (GAs) and Simulated Annealing. A framework with combination of Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing is presented to solve Multiple Sequence Alignment problem. The Genetic Algorithm phase will try to find new region of solution while Simulated Annealing can be considered as an alignment improver for any near optimal solution produced by GAs.

Keywords: Simulated annealing, genetic algorithm, sequence alignment, multiple sequence alignment.

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3944 Robot Cell Planning

Authors: Allan Tubaileh, Ibrahim Hammad, Loay Al Kafafi

Abstract:

A new approach to determine the machine layout in flexible manufacturing cell, and to find the feasible robot configuration of the robot to achieve minimum cycle time is presented in this paper. The location of the input/output location and the optimal robot configuration is obtained for all sequences of work tasks of the robot within a specified period of time. A more realistic approach has been presented to model the problem using the robot joint space. The problem is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem and solved using Sequential Quadratic Programming algorithm.

Keywords: Robotics, Layout.

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3943 Representation of Coloured Petri Net in Abductive Logic Programming (CPN-LP) and Its Application in Modeling an Intelligent Agent

Authors: T. H. Fung

Abstract:

Coloured Petri net (CPN) has been widely adopted in various areas in Computer Science, including protocol specification, performance evaluation, distributed systems and coordination in multi-agent systems. It provides a graphical representation of a system and has a strong mathematical foundation for proving various properties. This paper proposes a novel representation of a coloured Petri net using an extension of logic programming called abductive logic programming (ALP), which is purely based on classical logic. Under such a representation, an implementation of a CPN could be directly obtained, in which every inference step could be treated as a kind of equivalence preserved transformation. We would describe how to implement a CPN under such a representation using common meta-programming techniques in Prolog. We call our framework CPN-LP and illustrate its applications in modeling an intelligent agent.

Keywords: Abduction, coloured petri net, intelligent agent, logic programming.

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3942 Transmission Lines Loading Enhancement Using ADPSO Approach

Authors: M. Mahdavi, H. Monsef, A. Bagheri

Abstract:

Discrete particle swarm optimization (DPSO) is a powerful stochastic evolutionary algorithm that is used to solve the large-scale, discrete and nonlinear optimization problems. However, it has been observed that standard DPSO algorithm has premature convergence when solving a complex optimization problem like transmission expansion planning (TEP). To resolve this problem an advanced discrete particle swarm optimization (ADPSO) is proposed in this paper. The simulation result shows that optimization of lines loading in transmission expansion planning with ADPSO is better than DPSO from precision view point.

Keywords: ADPSO, TEP problem, Lines loading optimization.

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3941 Optimization of Petroleum Refinery Configuration Design with Logic Propositions

Authors: Cheng Seong Khor, Xiao Qi Yeoh

Abstract:

This work concerns the topological optimization problem for determining the optimal petroleum refinery configuration. We are interested in further investigating and hopefully advancing the existing optimization approaches and strategies employing logic propositions to conceptual process synthesis problems. In particular, we seek to contribute to this increasingly exciting area of chemical process modeling by addressing the following potentially important issues: (a) how the formulation of design specifications in a mixed-logical-and-integer optimization model can be employed in a synthesis problem to enrich the problem representation by incorporating past design experience, engineering knowledge, and heuristics; and (b) how structural specifications on the interconnectivity relationships by space (states) and by function (tasks) in a superstructure should be properly formulated within a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model. The proposed modeling technique is illustrated on a case study involving the alternative processing routes of naphtha, in which significant improvement in the solution quality is obtained.

Keywords: Mixed-integer linear programming (MILP), petroleum refinery, process synthesis, superstructure.

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3940 A New Hybrid Optimization Method for Optimum Distribution Capacitor Planning

Authors: A. R. Seifi

Abstract:

This work presents a new algorithm based on a combination of fuzzy (FUZ), Dynamic Programming (DP), and Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach for capacitor allocation in distribution feeders. The problem formulation considers two distinct objectives related to total cost of power loss and total cost of capacitors including the purchase and installation costs. The novel formulation is a multi-objective and non-differentiable optimization problem. The proposed method of this article uses fuzzy reasoning for sitting of capacitors in radial distribution feeders, DP for sizing and finally GA for finding the optimum shape of membership functions which are used in fuzzy reasoning stage. The proposed method has been implemented in a software package and its effectiveness has been verified through a 9-bus radial distribution feeder for the sake of conclusions supports. A comparison has been done among the proposed method of this paper and similar methods in other research works that shows the effectiveness of the proposed method of this paper for solving optimum capacitor planning problem.

Keywords: Capacitor planning, Fuzzy logic method, Genetic Algorithm, Dynamic programming, Radial Distribution feeder

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3939 Adaptation of Iterative Methods to Solve Fuzzy Mathematical Programming Problems

Authors: Ricardo C. Silva, Luiza A. P. Cantao, Akebo Yamakami

Abstract:

Based on the fuzzy set theory this work develops two adaptations of iterative methods that solve mathematical programming problems with uncertainties in the objective function and in the set of constraints. The first one uses the approach proposed by Zimmermann to fuzzy linear programming problems as a basis and the second one obtains cut levels and later maximizes the membership function of fuzzy decision making using the bound search method. We outline similarities between the two iterative methods studied. Selected examples from the literature are presented to validate the efficiency of the methods addressed.

Keywords: Fuzzy Theory, Nonlinear Optimization, Fuzzy Mathematics Programming.

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3938 A Reinforcement Learning Approach for Evaluation of Real-Time Disaster Relief Demand and Network Condition

Authors: Ali Nadi, Ali Edrissi

Abstract:

Relief demand and transportation links availability is the essential information that is needed for every natural disaster operation. This information is not in hand once a disaster strikes. Relief demand and network condition has been evaluated based on prediction method in related works. Nevertheless, prediction seems to be over or under estimated due to uncertainties and may lead to a failure operation. Therefore, in this paper a stochastic programming model is proposed to evaluate real-time relief demand and network condition at the onset of a natural disaster. To address the time sensitivity of the emergency response, the proposed model uses reinforcement learning for optimization of the total relief assessment time. The proposed model is tested on a real size network problem. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model performs well in the case of collecting real-time information.

Keywords: Disaster management, real-time demand, reinforcement learning, relief demand.

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3937 Interstate Comparison of Environmental Performance using Stochastic Frontier Analysis: The United States Case Study

Authors: Alexander Y. Vaninsky

Abstract:

Environmental performance of the U.S. States is investigated for the period of 1990 – 2007 using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). The SFA accounts for both efficiency measure and stochastic noise affecting a frontier. The frontier is formed using indicators of GDP, energy consumption, population, and CO2 emissions. For comparability, all indicators are expressed as ratios to total. Statistical information of the Energy Information Agency of the United States is used. Obtained results reveal the bell - shaped dynamics of environmental efficiency scores. The average efficiency scores rise from 97.6% in 1990 to 99.6% in 1999, and then fall to 98.4% in 2007. The main factor is insufficient decrease in the rate of growth of CO2 emissions with regards to the growth of GDP, population and energy consumption. Data for 2008 following the research period allow for an assumption that the environmental performance of the U.S. States has improved in the last years.

Keywords: Stochastic frontier analysis, environmental performance, interstate comparisons.

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3936 Making Data Structures and Algorithms more Understandable by Programming Sudoku the Human Way

Authors: Roelien Goede

Abstract:

Data Structures and Algorithms is a module in most Computer Science or Information Technology curricula. It is one of the modules most students identify as being difficult. This paper demonstrates how programming a solution for Sudoku can make abstract concepts more concrete. The paper relates concepts of a typical Data Structures and Algorithms module to a step by step solution for Sudoku in a human type as opposed to a computer oriented solution.

Keywords: Data Structures, Algorithms, Sudoku, ObjectOriented Programming, Programming Teaching, Education.

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3935 Low-Level Modeling for Optimal Train Routing and Scheduling in Busy Railway Stations

Authors: Quoc Khanh Dang, Thomas Bourdeaud’huy, Khaled Mesghouni, Armand Toguy´eni

Abstract:

This paper studies a train routing and scheduling problem for busy railway stations. Our objective is to allow trains to be routed in dense areas that are reaching saturation. Unlike traditional methods that allocate all resources to setup a route for a train and until the route is freed, our work focuses on the use of resources as trains progress through the railway node. This technique allows a larger number of trains to be routed simultaneously in a railway node and thus reduces their current saturation. To deal with this problem, this study proposes an abstract model and a mixed-integer linear programming formulation to solve it. The applicability of our method is illustrated on a didactic example.

Keywords: Busy railway stations, mixed-integer linear programming, offline railway station management, train platforming, train routing, train scheduling.

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3934 Study on Optimal Control Strategy of PM2.5 in Wuhan, China

Authors: Qiuling Xie, Shanliang Zhu, Zongdi Sun

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyzed the correlation relationship among PM2.5 from other five Air Quality Indices (AQIs) based on the grey relational degree, and built a multivariate nonlinear regression equation model of PM2.5 and the five monitoring indexes. For the optimal control problem of PM2.5, we took the partial large Cauchy distribution of membership equation as satisfaction function. We established a nonlinear programming model with the goal of maximum performance to price ratio. And the optimal control scheme is given.

Keywords: Grey relational degree, multiple linear regression, membership function, nonlinear programming.

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3933 Properties of a Stochastic Predator-Prey System with Holling II Functional Response

Authors: Xianqing Liu, Shouming Zhong, Fuli Zhong, Zijian Liu

Abstract:

In this paper, a stochastic predator-prey system with Holling II functional response is studied. First, we show that there is a unique positive solution to the system for any given positive initial value. Then, stochastically bounded of the positive solution to the stochastic system is derived. Moreover, sufficient conditions for global asymptotic stability are also established. In the end, some simulation figures are carried out to support the analytical findings.

Keywords: stochastically bounded, global stability, Holling II functional response, white noise, Markovian switching.

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3932 Optimization of Communication Protocols by stochastic Delay Mechanisms

Authors: J. Levendovszky, I. Koncz, P. Boros

Abstract:

The paper is concerned with developing stochastic delay mechanisms for efficient multicast protocols and for smooth mobile handover processes which are capable of preserving a given Quality of Service (QoS). In both applications the participating entities (receiver nodes or subscribers) sample a stochastic timer and generate load after a random delay. In this way, the load on the networking resources is evenly distributed which helps to maintain QoS communication. The optimal timer distributions have been sought in different p.d.f. families (e.g. exponential, power law and radial basis function) and the optimal parameter have been found in a recursive manner. Detailed simulations have demonstrated the improvement in performance both in the case of multicast and mobile handover applications.

Keywords: Multicast communication, stochactic delay mechanisms.

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3931 Mining Frequent Patterns with Functional Programming

Authors: Nittaya Kerdprasop, Kittisak Kerdprasop

Abstract:

Frequent patterns are patterns such as sets of features or items that appear in data frequently. Finding such frequent patterns has become an important data mining task because it reveals associations, correlations, and many other interesting relationships hidden in a dataset. Most of the proposed frequent pattern mining algorithms have been implemented with imperative programming languages such as C, Cµ, Java. The imperative paradigm is significantly inefficient when itemset is large and the frequent pattern is long. We suggest a high-level declarative style of programming using a functional language. Our supposition is that the problem of frequent pattern discovery can be efficiently and concisely implemented via a functional paradigm since pattern matching is a fundamental feature supported by most functional languages. Our frequent pattern mining implementation using the Haskell language confirms our hypothesis about conciseness of the program. The performance studies on speed and memory usage support our intuition on efficiency of functional language.

Keywords: Association, frequent pattern mining, functionalprogramming, pattern matching.

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3930 Compiler-Based Architecture for Context Aware Frameworks

Authors: Hossein Nejati, Seyed H. Mirisaee, Gholam H. Dastghaibifard

Abstract:

Computers are being integrated in the various aspects of human every day life in different shapes and abilities. This fact has intensified a requirement for the software development technologies which is ability to be: 1) portable, 2) adaptable, and 3) simple to develop. This problem is also known as the Pervasive Computing Problem (PCP) which can be implemented in different ways, each has its own pros and cons and Context Oriented Programming (COP) is one of the methods to address the PCP. In this paper a design for a COP framework, a context aware framework, is presented which has eliminated weak points of a previous design based on interpreter languages, while introducing the compiler languages power in implementing these frameworks. The key point of this improvement is combining COP and Dependency Injection (DI) techniques. Both old and new frameworks are analyzed to show advantages and disadvantages. Finally a simulation of both designs is proposed to indicating that the practical results agree with the theoretical analysis while the new design runs almost 8 times faster.

Keywords: Dependency Injection, Compiler-based architecture, Context-Oriented Programming, COP, Pervasive ComputingProblem

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3929 Jointly Learning Python Programming and Analytic Geometry

Authors: Cristina-Maria Păcurar

Abstract:

The paper presents an original Python-based application that outlines the advantages of combining some elementary notions of mathematics with the study of a programming language. The application support refers to some of the first lessons of analytic geometry, meaning conics and quadrics and their reduction to a standard form, as well as some related notions. The chosen programming language is Python, not only for its closer to an everyday language syntax – and therefore, enhanced readability – but also for its highly reusable code, which is of utmost importance for a mathematician that is accustomed to exploit already known and used problems to solve new ones. The purpose of this paper is, on one hand, to support the idea that one of the most appropriate means to initiate one into programming is throughout mathematics, and reciprocal, one of the most facile and handy ways to assimilate some basic knowledge in the study of mathematics is to apply them in a personal project. On the other hand, besides being a mean of learning both programming and analytic geometry, the application subject to this paper is itself a useful tool for it can be seen as an independent original Python package for analytic geometry.

Keywords: Analytic geometry, conics, Python programming language, quadrics.

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3928 Advanced Stochastic Models for Partially Developed Speckle

Authors: Jihad S. Daba (Jean-Pierre Dubois), Philip Jreije

Abstract:

Speckled images arise when coherent microwave, optical, and acoustic imaging techniques are used to image an object, surface or scene. Examples of coherent imaging systems include synthetic aperture radar, laser imaging systems, imaging sonar systems, and medical ultrasound systems. Speckle noise is a form of object or target induced noise that results when the surface of the object is Rayleigh rough compared to the wavelength of the illuminating radiation. Detection and estimation in images corrupted by speckle noise is complicated by the nature of the noise and is not as straightforward as detection and estimation in additive noise. In this work, we derive stochastic models for speckle noise, with an emphasis on speckle as it arises in medical ultrasound images. The motivation for this work is the problem of segmentation and tissue classification using ultrasound imaging. Modeling of speckle in this context involves partially developed speckle model where an underlying Poisson point process modulates a Gram-Charlier series of Laguerre weighted exponential functions, resulting in a doubly stochastic filtered Poisson point process. The statistical distribution of partially developed speckle is derived in a closed canonical form. It is observed that as the mean number of scatterers in a resolution cell is increased, the probability density function approaches an exponential distribution. This is consistent with fully developed speckle noise as demonstrated by the Central Limit theorem.

Keywords: Doubly stochastic filtered process, Poisson point process, segmentation, speckle, ultrasound

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3927 Evaluation of Introductory Programming Course for Non-Computer Science Majored Students

Authors: H. Varol

Abstract:

Although students’ interest level in pursuing Computer Science and related degrees are lower than previous decade, fundamentals of computers, specifically introductory level programming courses are either listed as core or elective courses for a number of non-computer science majors. Universities accommodate these non-computer science majored students either via creating separate sections of a class for them or simply offering mixed-body classroom solutions, in which both computer science and non-computer science students take the courses together. In this work, we demonstrated how we handle introductory level programming course at Sam Houston State University and also provide facts about our observations on students’ success during the coursework. Moreover, we provide suggestions and methodologies that are based on students’ major and skills to overcome the deficiencies of mix-body type of classes.

Keywords: Computer science, non-computer science major, programming, programming education.

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3926 Development of a Comprehensive Electricity Generation Simulation Model Using a Mixed Integer Programming Approach

Authors: Erik Delarue, David Bekaert, Ronnie Belmans, William D'haeseleer

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of an electricity simulation model taking into account electrical network constraints, applied on the Belgian power system. The base of the model is optimizing an extensive Unit Commitment (UC) problem through the use of Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). Electrical constraints are incorporated through the implementation of a DC load flow. The model encloses the Belgian power system in a 220 – 380 kV high voltage network (i.e., 93 power plants and 106 nodes). The model features the use of pumping storage facilities as well as the inclusion of spinning reserves in a single optimization process. Solution times of the model stay below reasonable values.

Keywords: Electricity generation modeling, Unit Commitment(UC), Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), DC load flow.

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3925 Network of Coupled Stochastic Oscillators and One-way Quantum Computations

Authors: Eugene Grichuk, Margarita Kuzmina, Eduard Manykin

Abstract:

A network of coupled stochastic oscillators is proposed for modeling of a cluster of entangled qubits that is exploited as a computation resource in one-way quantum computation schemes. A qubit model has been designed as a stochastic oscillator formed by a pair of coupled limit cycle oscillators with chaotically modulated limit cycle radii and frequencies. The qubit simulates the behavior of electric field of polarized light beam and adequately imitates the states of two-level quantum system. A cluster of entangled qubits can be associated with a beam of polarized light, light polarization degree being directly related to cluster entanglement degree. Oscillatory network, imitating qubit cluster, is designed, and system of equations for network dynamics has been written. The constructions of one-qubit gates are suggested. Changing of cluster entanglement degree caused by measurements can be exactly calculated.

Keywords: network of stochastic oscillators, one-way quantumcomputations, a beam of polarized light.

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3924 Dynamic Programming Based Algorithm for the Unit Commitment of the Transmission-Constrained Multi-Site Combined Heat and Power System

Authors: A. Rong, P. B. Luh, R. Lahdelma

Abstract:

High penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) such as solar power and wind power into the energy system has caused temporal and spatial imbalance between electric power supply and demand for some countries and regions. This brings about the critical need for coordinating power production and power exchange for different regions. As compared with the power-only systems, the combined heat and power (CHP) systems can provide additional flexibility of utilizing RES by exploiting the interdependence of power and heat production in the CHP plant. In the CHP system, power production can be influenced by adjusting heat production level and electric power can be used to satisfy heat demand by electric boiler or heat pump in conjunction with heat storage, which is much cheaper than electric storage. This paper addresses multi-site CHP systems without considering RES, which lay foundation for handling penetration of RES. The problem under study is the unit commitment (UC) of the transmission-constrained multi-site CHP systems. We solve the problem by combining linear relaxation of ON/OFF states and sequential dynamic programming (DP) techniques, where relaxed states are used to reduce the dimension of the UC problem and DP for improving the solution quality. Numerical results for daily scheduling with realistic models and data show that DP-based algorithm is from a few to a few hundred times faster than CPLEX (standard commercial optimization software) with good solution accuracy (less than 1% relative gap from the optimal solution on the average).

Keywords: Dynamic programming, multi-site combined heat and power system, relaxed states, transmission-constrained generation unit commitment.

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3923 EGCL: An Extended G-Code Language with Flow Control, Functions and Mnemonic Variables

Authors: Oscar E. Ruiz, S. Arroyave, J. F. Cardona

Abstract:

In the context of computer numerical control (CNC) and computer aided manufacturing (CAM), the capabilities of programming languages such as symbolic and intuitive programming, program portability and geometrical portfolio have special importance. They allow to save time and to avoid errors during part programming and permit code re-usage. Our updated literature review indicates that the current state of art presents voids in parametric programming, program portability and programming flexibility. In response to this situation, this article presents a compiler implementation for EGCL (Extended G-code Language), a new, enriched CNC programming language which allows the use of descriptive variable names, geometrical functions and flow-control statements (if-then-else, while). Our compiler produces low-level generic, elementary ISO-compliant Gcode, thus allowing for flexibility in the choice of the executing CNC machine and in portability. Our results show that readable variable names and flow control statements allow a simplified and intuitive part programming and permit re-usage of the programs. Future work includes allowing the programmer to define own functions in terms of EGCL, in contrast to the current status of having them as library built-in functions.

Keywords: CNC Programming, Compiler, G-code Language, Numerically Controlled Machine-Tools.

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3922 Burstiness Reduction of a Doubly Stochastic AR-Modeled Uniform Activity VBR Video

Authors: J. P. Dubois

Abstract:

Stochastic modeling of network traffic is an area of significant research activity for current and future broadband communication networks. Multimedia traffic is statistically characterized by a bursty variable bit rate (VBR) profile. In this paper, we develop an improved model for uniform activity level video sources in ATM using a doubly stochastic autoregressive model driven by an underlying spatial point process. We then examine a number of burstiness metrics such as the peak-to-average ratio (PAR), the temporal autocovariance function (ACF) and the traffic measurements histogram. We found that the former measure is most suitable for capturing the burstiness of single scene video traffic. In the last phase of this work, we analyse statistical multiplexing of several constant scene video sources. This proved, expectedly, to be advantageous with respect to reducing the burstiness of the traffic, as long as the sources are statistically independent. We observed that the burstiness was rapidly diminishing, with the largest gain occuring when only around 5 sources are multiplexed. The novel model used in this paper for characterizing uniform activity video was thus found to be an accurate model.

Keywords: AR, ATM, burstiness, doubly stochastic, statisticalmultiplexing.

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3921 Forecasting the Volatility of Geophysical Time Series with Stochastic Volatility Models

Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

Abstract:

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model.

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3920 The Impact of Transaction Costs on Rebalancing an Investment Portfolio in Portfolio Optimization

Authors: B. Marasović, S. Pivac, S. V. Vukasović

Abstract:

Constructing a portfolio of investments is one of the most significant financial decisions facing individuals and institutions. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximization of return at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. In addition, the costs incurred when setting up a new portfolio or rebalancing an existing portfolio must be included in any realistic analysis. In this paper rebalancing an investment portfolio in the presence of transaction costs on the Croatian capital market is analyzed. The model applied in the paper is an extension of the standard portfolio mean-variance optimization model in which transaction costs are incurred to rebalance an investment portfolio. This model allows different costs for different securities, and different costs for buying and selling. In order to find efficient portfolio, using this model, first, the solution of quadratic programming problem of similar size to the Markowitz model, and then the solution of a linear programming problem have to be found. Furthermore, in the paper the impact of transaction costs on the efficient frontier is investigated. Moreover, it is shown that global minimum variance portfolio on the efficient frontier always has the same level of the risk regardless of the amount of transaction costs. Although efficient frontier position depends of both transaction costs amount and initial portfolio it can be concluded that extreme right portfolio on the efficient frontier always contains only one stock with the highest expected return and the highest risk.

Keywords: Croatian capital market, Fractional quadratic programming, Markowitz model, Portfolio optimization, Transaction costs.

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3919 Development of an Intelligent Tool for Planning the Operation

Authors: T. R. Alencar, P. T. Leite

Abstract:

Several optimization algorithms specifically applied to the problem of Operation Planning of Hydrothermal Power Systems have been developed and are used. Although providing solutions to various problems encountered, these algorithms have some weaknesses, difficulties in convergence, simplification of the original formulation of the problem, or owing to the complexity of the objective function. Thus, this paper presents the development of a computational tool for solving optimization problem identified and to provide the User an easy handling. Adopted as intelligent optimization technique, Genetic Algorithms and programming language Java. First made the modeling of the chromosomes, then implemented the function assessment of the problem and the operators involved, and finally the drafting of the graphical interfaces for access to the User. The program has managed to relate a coherent performance in problem resolution without the need for simplification of the calculations together with the ease of manipulating the parameters of simulation and visualization of output results.

Keywords: Energy, Optimization, Hydrothermal Power Systemsand Genetic Algorithms

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