Search results for: simple random sampling

Authors: Avinash Chandra, R. P. Chhabra

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Natural convection heat transfer from a heated horizontal semi-circular cylinder (flat surface upward) has been investigated for the following ranges of conditions; Grashof number, and Prandtl number. The governing partial differential equations (continuity, Navier-Stokes and energy equations) have been solved numerically using a finite volume formulation. In addition, the role of the type of the thermal boundary condition imposed at cylinder surface, namely, constant wall temperature (CWT) and constant heat flux (CHF) are explored. Natural convection heat transfer from a heated horizontal semi-circular cylinder (flat surface upward) has been investigated for the following ranges of conditions; Grashof number, and Prandtl number, . The governing partial differential equations (continuity, Navier-Stokes and energy equations) have been solved numerically using a finite volume formulation. In addition, the role of the type of the thermal boundary condition imposed at cylinder surface, namely, constant wall temperature (CWT) and constant heat flux (CHF) are explored. The resulting flow and temperature fields are visualized in terms of the streamline and isotherm patterns in the proximity of the cylinder. The flow remains attached to the cylinder surface over the range of conditions spanned here except that for and ; at these conditions, a separated flow region is observed when the condition of the constant wall temperature is prescribed on the surface of the cylinder. The heat transfer characteristics are analyzed in terms of the local and average Nusselt numbers. The maximum value of the local Nusselt number always occurs at the corner points whereas it is found to be minimum at the rear stagnation point on the flat surface. Overall, the average Nusselt number increases with Grashof number and/ or Prandtl number in accordance with the scaling considerations. The numerical results are used to develop simple correlations as functions of Grashof and Prandtl number thereby enabling the interpolation of the present numerical results for the intermediate values of the Prandtl or Grashof numbers for both thermal boundary conditions.

Keywords: Constant heat flux, Constant surface temperature, Grashof number, natural convection, Prandtl number, Semi-circular cylinder

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Authors: Jožef Ritonja, Bojan Grčar, Boštjan Polajžer

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In recent years, electricity trade between neighboring countries has become increasingly intense. Increasing power transmission over long distances has resulted in an increase in the oscillations of the transmitted power. The damping of the oscillations can be carried out with the reconfiguration of the network or the replacement of generators, but such solution is not economically reasonable. The only cost-effective solution to improve the damping of power oscillations is to use power system stabilizers. Power system stabilizer represents a part of synchronous generator control system. It utilizes semiconductor’s excitation system connected to the rotor field excitation winding to increase the damping of the power system. The majority of the synchronous generators are equipped with the conventional power system stabilizers with fixed parameters. The control structure of the conventional power system stabilizers and the tuning procedure are based on the linear control theory. Conventional power system stabilizers are simple to realize, but they show non-sufficient damping improvement in the entire operating conditions. This is the reason that advanced control theories are used for development of better power system stabilizers. In this paper, the adaptive control theory for power system stabilizers design and synthesis is studied. The presented work is focused on the use of model reference adaptive control approach. Control signal, which assures that the controlled plant output will follow the reference model output, is generated by the adaptive algorithm. Adaptive gains are obtained as a combination of the "proportional" term and with the σ-term extended "integral" term. The σ-term is introduced to avoid divergence of the integral gains. The necessary condition for asymptotic tracking is derived by means of hyperstability theory. The benefits of the proposed model reference adaptive power system stabilizer were evaluated as objectively as possible by means of a theoretical analysis, numerical simulations and laboratory realizations. Damping of the synchronous generator oscillations in the entire operating range was investigated. Obtained results show the improved damping in the entire operating area and the increase of the power system stability. The results of the presented work will help by the development of the model reference power system stabilizer which should be able to replace the conventional stabilizers in power systems.

Keywords: Power system, stability, oscillations, power system stabilizer, model reference adaptive control.

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Authors: Gela Gelashvili, David Gelenidze, Sulkhan Nanobashvili, Irakli Nanobashvili, George Tavkhelidze, Tsiuri Sitchinava

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Development of new highly efficient plasma arc combustion system of pulverized coal is presented. As it is well-known, coal is one of the main energy carriers by means of which electric and heat energy is produced in thermal power stations. The quality of the extracted coal decreases very rapidly. Therefore, the difficulties associated with its firing and complete combustion arise and thermo-chemical preparation of pulverized coal becomes necessary. Usually, other organic fuels (mazut-fuel oil or natural gas) are added to low-quality coal for this purpose. The fraction of additional organic fuels varies within 35-40% range. This decreases dramatically the economic efficiency of such systems. At the same time, emission of noxious substances in the environment increases. Because of all these, intense development of plasma combustion systems of pulverized coal takes place in whole world. These systems are equipped with Non-Transferred Plasma Arc Torches. They allow practically complete combustion of pulverized coal (without organic additives) in boilers, increase of energetic and financial efficiency. At the same time, emission of noxious substances in the environment decreases dramatically. But, the non-transferred plasma torches have numerous drawbacks, e.g. complicated construction, low service life (especially in the case of high power), instability of plasma arc and most important – up to 30% of energy loss due to anode cooling. Due to these reasons, intense development of new plasma technologies that are free from these shortcomings takes place. In our proposed system, pulverized coal-air mixture passes through plasma arc area that burns between to carbon electrodes directly in pulverized coal muffler burner. Consumption of the carbon electrodes is low and does not need a cooling system, but the main advantage of this method is that radiation of plasma arc directly impacts on coal-air mixture that accelerates the process of thermo-chemical preparation of coal to burn. To ensure the stability of the plasma arc in such difficult conditions, we have developed a power source that provides fixed current during fluctuations in the arc resistance automatically compensated by the voltage change as well as regulation of plasma arc length over a wide range. Our combustion system where plasma arc acts directly on pulverized coal-air mixture is simple. This should allow a significant improvement of pulverized coal combustion (especially low-quality coal) and its economic efficiency. Preliminary experiments demonstrated the successful functioning of the system.

Keywords: Coal combustion, plasma arc, plasma torches, pulverized coal.

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Authors: Maja Martinovic, Valentina Zarkovic, Hrvoje Maljak

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Europe is one of the most popular tourist destinations in the world, in which tourism occupies a significant place among the most relevant economic activities, and this applies to the Republic of Croatia as well. Based on this study, the authors intended to encourage and support the creation of an effective tourism policy in Croatia that would be based on the profiling of certain target groups. Another objective was to compare the results obtained from the customer analysis with the market analysis of the tourism industry in Croatia. The objective is to adapt the current tourist offer according to the identified needs and expectations of a particular tourist group in order to increase the attractiveness of Croatia as a tourist destination and motivate greater attendance of the targeted tourist groups. The current research was oriented towards the Russian market as the target group. Therefore, the authors wanted to encourage a discussion on how to attract more Russian guests. Consequently, the intention of the research was a detailed analysis of Russian tourists, in order to gain a better understanding of their travelling motives and tendencies. Furthermore, attention was paid to the expectations of Russian customers and to compare them with the Croatian tourist offer, and to determine whether there is a possibility for an overlap. The method used to obtain the information required was a survey conducted among Russian citizens about their travelling habits. The research was carried out on the basis of 166 participants of different age, gender, profession and income group. The sampling and distribution of the survey took place between May and July 2016. The results provided from the research indicate that Croatian tourism has certain unrealized potential considering the popularization of Croatia as a tourist destination, and there is a capacity for increasing the revenues within the group of Russian tourists. Such a conclusion is based on the fact that the Croatian tourist offer and the preferences of the Russian guests are compatible, i.e. they overlap in many aspects. The results demonstrate that beautiful nature, cultural and historical heritage as well as the sun and sea, play a leading role in attracting more Russian tourists. It is precisely these elements that form the three pillars of the Croatian tourist offer. On the other hand, the profiling revealed that the most desirable destinations for the Russian guests are Italy and Spain, both of which provide the same main tourist attractions as Croatia. Therefore, the focus of the strategic ideas given in the paper shifted to other tourism segments, such as type of accommodation, sales channels, travel motives, additional offer and seasonality etc., in order to gain advantage in the Russian market, the Mediterranean region and tourism in general. The purpose of the research is to serve as a foundation for analysing the attractiveness of the other tourist destinations in the Russian market, as well as to be a general basis for a more detailed profiling of the various specific target groups of the Russian and other tourist groups.

Keywords: Croatia, Russian market, target groups, tourism, tourist destination.

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Authors: Valentina Piric, Maja Martinovic, Zoran Barac

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The application of marketing to the domain of politics has become relevant in recent times. With this article the authors wanted to explore the issue of the current political engagement among young people in Croatia. The question is what makes young people (age 18-30) politically active in young democracies such as that of the Republic of Croatia. Therefore, the objective of this study was to discover the real or hidden motivations behind the decision to actively participate in politics among young members of the two largest political parties in the country – the Croatian Democratic Union and the Social Democratic Party of Croatia. The study expected to find that the motivation for political engagement of young people is often connected with a possible achievement of individual goals and egoistic needs such as: self-acceptance, social success, financial success, prestige, reputation, status, recognition from the others etc. It was also expected that, due to the poor economic and social situation in the country, young people feel an increasing disconnection from politics. Additionally, the authors expected to find that there is a huge potential to engage young people in the political life of the country through a proper and more interactive use of marketing communication campaigns and social media platforms, with an emphasis on highly ethical motives of political activity and their benefits to society. All respondents included in the quantitative survey (sample size [N=100]) are active in one of the two largest political parties in Croatia. The sampling and distribution of the survey occurred in the field in September 2016. The results of the survey demonstrate that in Croatia, the way young people feel about politics and act accordingly, are in fact similar to what the theory describes. The research findings reveal that young people are politically active; however, the challenge is to find a way to motivate even more young people in Croatia to actively participate in the political and democratic processes in the country and to encourage them to see additional benefits out of this practice, not only related to their individual motives, but related more to the well-being of Croatia as a country and of every member of society. The research also discovered a huge potential for political marketing communication possibilities, especially related to interactive social media. It is possible that the social media channels have a stronger influence on the decision-making process among young people when compared to groups of reference. The level of interest in politics among young Croatians varies; some of them are almost indifferent, whilst others express a serious interest in different ways to actively contribute to the political life of the country, defining a participation in the political life of their country almost as their moral obligation. However, additional observations and further research need to be conducted to get a clearer and more precise picture about the interest in politics among young people in Croatia and their social potential.

Keywords: Croatia, marketing communication, motivation, politics, young people.

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Authors: D. Berdous, H. Ferfera-Harrar

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Superabsorbent polymers (SAPs) or hydrogels with three-dimensional hydrophilic network structure are high-performance water absorbent and retention materials. The in situ synthesis of metal nanoparticles within polymeric network as antibacterial agents for bio-applications is an approach that takes advantage of the existing free-space into networks, which not only acts as a template for nucleation of nanoparticles, but also provides long term stability and reduces their toxicity by delaying their oxidation and release. In this work, SAP/nanosilver nanocomposites were successfully developed by a unique green process at room temperature, which involves in situ formation of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) within hydrogels as a template. The aim of this study is to investigate whether these AgNPs-loaded hydrogels are potential candidates for antimicrobial applications. Firstly, the superabsorbents were prepared through radical copolymerization via grafting and crosslinking of acrylamide (AAm) onto chitosan backbone (Cs) using potassium persulfate as initiator and N,N’-methylenebisacrylamide as the crosslinker. Then, they were hydrolyzed to achieve superabsorbents with ampholytic properties and uppermost swelling capacity. Lastly, the AgNPs were biosynthesized and entrapped into hydrogels through a simple, eco-friendly and cost-effective method using aqueous silver nitrate as a silver precursor and curcuma longa tuber-powder extracts as both reducing and stabilizing agent. The formed superabsorbents nanocomposites (Cs-g-PAAm)/AgNPs were characterized by X-ray Diffraction (XRD), UV-visible Spectroscopy, Attenuated Total reflectance Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR), Inductively Coupled Plasma (ICP), and Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA). Microscopic surface structure analyzed by Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) has showed spherical shapes of AgNPs with size in the range of 3-15 nm. The extent of nanosilver loading was decreased by increasing Cs content into network. The silver-loaded hydrogel was thermally more stable than the unloaded dry hydrogel counterpart. The swelling equilibrium degree (Q) and centrifuge retention capacity (CRC) in deionized water were affected by both contents of Cs and the entrapped AgNPs. The nanosilver-embedded hydrogels exhibited antibacterial activity against Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus bacteria. These comprehensive results suggest that the elaborated AgNPs-loaded nanomaterials could be used to produce valuable wound dressing.

Keywords: Antibacterial activity, nanocomposites, silver nanoparticles, superabsorbent hydrogel.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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The number of indices developed for the evaluation of obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS) both in adults and pediatric population is ever increasing. These indices can be weight-dependent or weight–independent. Some are extremely sophisticated equations and their clinical utility is questionable in routine clinical practice. The aim of this study was to compare presently available obesity indices and find the most practical one. Their associations with MetS components were also investigated to determine their capacities in differential diagnosis of morbid obesity with and without MetS. Children with normal body mass index (N-BMI) and morbid obesity were recruited for this study. Three groups were constituted. Age- and sex-dependent BMI percentiles for morbid obese (MO) children were above 99 according to World Health Organization tables. Of them, those with MetS findings were evaluated as MetS group. Children, whose values were between 85 and 15, were included in N-BMI group. The study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of Tekirdag Namik Kemal University, Faculty of Medicine. Parents filled out informed consent forms to participate in the study. Anthropometric measurements and blood pressure values were recorded. BMI, hip index (HI), conicity index (CI), triponderal mass index (TPMI), body adiposity index (BAI), body shape index (BSI), body roundness index (BRI), abdominal volume index (AVI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and [waist circumference (WC) + hip circumference (HC)]/2 were the formulas examined in this study. Routine biochemical tests including fasting blood glucose (FBG), insulin (INS), blood lipids were performed. Statistical program SPSS was used for the evaluation of study data; p < 0.05 was accepted as the statistical significance degree. HI did not differ among the groups. A statistically significant difference was noted between N-BMI and MetS groups in terms of ABSI. All the other indices were capable of making discrimination between N-BMI-MO, N-BMI- MetS and MO-MetS groups. No correlation was found between FBG and any obesity indices in any groups. The same was true for INS in N-BMI group. Insulin was correlated with BAI, TPMI, CI, BRI, AVI and (WC+HC)/2 in MO group without MetS findings. In the MetS group, the only index, which was correlated with INS, was (WC+HC)/2. These findings have pointed out that complicated formulas may not be required for the evaluation of the alterations among N-BMI and various obesity groups including MetS. The simple easily computable weight-independent index, (WC+HC)/2, was unique, because it was the only index, which exhibits a valuable association with INS in MetS group. It did not exhibit any correlation with other obesity indices showing associations with INS in MO group. It was concluded that (WC+HC)/2 was pretty valuable practicable index for the discrimination of MO children with and without MetS findings.

Keywords: Fasting blood glucose, insulin, metabolic syndrome, obesity indices.

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Authors: A. Keramaris, T. Sawidis, E. Kasapidou, P. Mitlianga

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Although the gastronomy of the Greeks of Pontus is well-known, it has not received the same level of scientific scrutiny as another Greek local cuisine, that of Crete. As a result, we planned to concentrate our research on Greek Pontic cuisine to shed light on its distinct recipes, food products, and, ultimately, its characteristics. The Greeks of Pontus have one of Greece's most distinguished local cuisines, having lived for a long time in the northern part (Black Sea Region) of modern Turkey and now widely inhabiting northern Greece. Despite its simplicity, their cuisine contains several mouthwatering delicacies. Even though they have been in Greece for a century, their gastronomic culture remains an important part of their collective identity. As a first step toward understanding Greek Pontic cuisine, furniko flour, one of its most well-known traditional products, was investigated. For this project, we targeted residents of Western Macedonia, a province in northern Greece with a large population of descendants of Pontus Greeks who are primarily engaged in agricultural activities. In this quest, we approached a descendant of Pontus Greeks who is involved in the production of furniko flour and agreed to show us the entire process as we participated in it. Furniko flour is made from heirloom non-hybrid corn. When the moisture content of the seeds is low enough to make them suitable for roasting, they are harvested by hand. Harvesting by hand entails removing the cob from the plant and separating the husks. The harvested cobs are then roasted in a traditional wood oven for 24 hours. After that, the these are collected and stored in sacks. The next step is to extract the seeds by rubbing the cobs together. Ideally, the seeds should be ground in a traditional stone hand mill. The outcome of this process is aromatic, dark golden furniko flour, which is used to make havitz. Along with the furniko flour preparation, we also documented the havitz cooking process (a porridge-like corn flour dish). One of the most delectable dishes in Greek Pontic cuisine, this savory delicacy is simple to prepare. Because of the ingredients of furniko flour, havitz is a highly nutritious dish, according to the research participant. Furthermore, he claims that preparing havitz is a wonderful way to bring families together, share stories, and revisit happy memories. Finally, as an initial effort to highlight elements of Pontic Greek cuisine, this study illustrates the traditional preparation of furniko flour and its use in various traditional recipes. Our next objective would be to evaluate the nutritional value of furniko flour by analyzing its chemical components.

Keywords: Furniko flour, Greek Pontic cuisine, Havitz, traditional foods.

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Authors: Peter Clutterbuck, Terry Rowlands, Owen Seamons

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In this paper we describe one critical research program within a complex, ongoing multi-year project (2010 to 2014 inclusive) with the overall goal to improve the learning outcomes for first year undergraduate commerce/business students within an Information Systems (IS) subject with very large enrolment. The single research program described in this paper is the analysis of student attitudes and decision making in relation to the availability of formative assessment feedback via Web-based real time conferencing and document exchange software (Adobe Connect). The formative assessment feedback between teaching staff and students is in respect of an authentic problem-based, team-completed assignment. The analysis of student attitudes and decision making is investigated via both qualitative (firstly) and quantitative (secondly) application of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) with a two statistically-significant and separate trial samples of the enrolled students. The initial qualitative TPB investigation revealed that perceived self-efficacy, improved time-management, and lecturer-student relationship building were the major factors in shaping an overall favorable student attitude to online feedback, whilst some students expressed valid concerns with perceived control limitations identified within the online feedback protocols. The subsequent quantitative TPB investigation then confirmed that attitude towards usage, subjective norms surrounding usage, and perceived behavioral control of usage were all significant in shaping student intention to use the online feedback protocol, with these three variables explaining 63 percent of the variance in the behavioral intention to use the online feedback protocol. The identification in this research of perceived behavioral control as a significant determinant in student usage of a specific technology component within a virtual learning environment (VLE) suggests that VLEs could now be viewed not as a single, atomic entity, but as a spectrum of technology offerings ranging from the mature and simple (e.g., email, Web downloads) to the cutting-edge and challenging (e.g., Web conferencing and real-time document exchange). That is, that all VLEs should not be considered the same. The results of this research suggest that tertiary students have the technological sophistication to assess a VLE in this more selective manner.

Keywords: Formative assessment feedback, virtual learning environment, theory of planned behavior, perceived behavioral control.

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Authors: Padmanabhan Balasubramanian, Karthik Anantha

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Structural representation and technology mapping of a Boolean function is an important problem in the design of nonregenerative digital logic circuits (also called combinational logic circuits). Library aware function manipulation offers a solution to this problem. Compact multi-level representation of binary networks, based on simple circuit structures, such as AND-Inverter Graphs (AIG) [1] [5], NAND Graphs, OR-Inverter Graphs (OIG), AND-OR Graphs (AOG), AND-OR-Inverter Graphs (AOIG), AND-XORInverter Graphs, Reduced Boolean Circuits [8] does exist in literature. In this work, we discuss a novel and efficient graph realization for combinational logic circuits, represented using a NAND-NOR-Inverter Graph (NNIG), which is composed of only two-input NAND (NAND2), NOR (NOR2) and inverter (INV) cells. The networks are constructed on the basis of irredundant disjunctive and conjunctive normal forms, after factoring, comprising terms with minimum support. Construction of a NNIG for a non-regenerative function in normal form would be straightforward, whereas for the complementary phase, it would be developed by considering a virtual instance of the function. However, the choice of best NNIG for a given function would be based upon literal count, cell count and DAG node count of the implementation at the technology independent stage. In case of a tie, the final decision would be made after extracting the physical design parameters. We have considered AIG representation for reduced disjunctive normal form and the best of OIG/AOG/AOIG for the minimized conjunctive normal forms. This is necessitated due to the nature of certain functions, such as Achilles- heel functions. NNIGs are found to exhibit 3.97% lesser node count compared to AIGs and OIG/AOG/AOIGs; consume 23.74% and 10.79% lesser library cells than AIGs and OIG/AOG/AOIGs for the various samples considered. We compare the power efficiency and delay improvement achieved by optimal NNIGs over minimal AIGs and OIG/AOG/AOIGs for various case studies. In comparison with functionally equivalent, irredundant and compact AIGs, NNIGs report mean savings in power and delay of 43.71% and 25.85% respectively, after technology mapping with a 0.35 micron TSMC CMOS process. For a comparison with OIG/AOG/AOIGs, NNIGs demonstrate average savings in power and delay by 47.51% and 24.83%. With respect to device count needed for implementation with static CMOS logic style, NNIGs utilize 37.85% and 33.95% lesser transistors than their AIG and OIG/AOG/AOIG counterparts.

Keywords: AND-Inverter Graph, OR-Inverter Graph, DirectedAcyclic Graph, Low power design, Delay optimization.

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Authors: Martin Grootveld, Benita Percival, Sarah Moumtaz, Kerry L. Grootveld

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Objectives/Hypotheses: The adverse health effect potential of dietary lipid oxidation products (LOPs) has evoked much clinical interest. Therefore, we employed a ¹H NMR-linked Principal Component Regression (PCR) chemometrics modelling strategy to explore relationships between data matrices comprising (1) aldehydic LOP concentrations generated in culinary oils/fats when exposed to laboratory-simulated shallow frying practices, and (2) the prior saturated (SFA), monounsaturated (MUFA) and polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) contents of such frying media (FM), together with their heating time-points at a standard frying temperature (180 ^oC). Methods: Corn, sunflower, extra virgin olive, rapeseed, linseed, canola, coconut and MUFA-rich algae frying oils, together with butter and lard, were heated according to laboratory-simulated shallow-frying episodes at 180 ^oC, and FM samples were collected at time-points of 0, 5, 10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 min. (n = 6 replicates per sample). Aldehydes were determined by ¹H NMR analysis (Bruker AV 400 MHz spectrometer). The first (dependent output variable) PCR data matrix comprised aldehyde concentration scores vectors (PC1* and PC2*), whilst the second (predictor) one incorporated those from the fatty acid content/heating time variables (PC1-PC4) and their first-order interactions. Results: Structurally complex trans,trans- and cis,trans-alka-2,4-dienals, 4,5-epxy-trans-2-alkenals and 4-hydroxy-/4-hydroperoxy-trans-2-alkenals (group I aldehydes predominantly arising from PUFA peroxidation) strongly and positively loaded on PC1*, whereas n-alkanals and trans-2-alkenals (group II aldehydes derived from both MUFA and PUFA hydroperoxides) strongly and positively loaded on PC2*. PCR analysis of these scores vectors (SVs) demonstrated that PCs 1 (positively-loaded linoleoylglycerols and [linoleoylglycerol]:[SFA] content ratio), 2 (positively-loaded oleoylglycerols and negatively-loaded SFAs), 3 (positively-loaded linolenoylglycerols and [PUFA]:[SFA] content ratios), and 4 (exclusively orthogonal sampling time-points) all powerfully contributed to aldehydic PC1* SVs (p 10^-3 to < 10^-9), as did all PC1-3 x PC4 interaction ones (p 10^-5 to < 10^-9). PC2* was also markedly dependent on all the above PC SVs (PC2 > PC1 and PC3), and the interactions of PC1 and PC2 with PC4 (p < 10^-9 in each case), but not the PC3 x PC4 contribution. Conclusions: NMR-linked PCR analysis is a valuable strategy for (1) modelling the generation of aldehydic LOPs in heated cooking oils and other FM, and (2) tracking their unsaturated fatty acid (UFA) triacylglycerol sources therein.

Keywords: Frying oils, frying episodes, lipid oxidation products, cytotoxic/genotoxic aldehydes, chemometrics, principal component regression, NMR Analysis.

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Authors: Puzanova Zhanna Vasilyevna, Larina Tatiana Igorevna, Tertyshnikova Anastasia Gennadyevna

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In this day and age, extremism in various forms of its manifestation is a real threat to the world community, the national security of a state and its territorial integrity, as well as to the constitutional rights and freedoms of citizens. Extremism, as it is known, in general terms described as a commitment to extreme views and actions, radically denying the existing social norms and rules. Supporters of extremism in the ideological and political struggles often adopt methods and means of psychological warfare, appeal not to reason and logical arguments, but to emotions and instincts of the people, to prejudices, biases, and a variety of mythological designs. They are dissatisfied with the established order and aim at increasing this dissatisfaction among the masses. Youth extremism holds a specific place among the existing forms and types of extremism. In this context in 2015, we conducted a survey among Moscow college and high school students. The aim of this study was to determine how great or small is the difference in understanding and attitudes towards extremism manifestations, inclination and readiness to take part in extremist activities and what causes this predisposition, if it exists. We performed multivariate analysis and found the Russian college and high school students' opinion about the extremism and terrorism situation in our country and also their cognition on these topics. Among other things, we showed, that the level of aggressiveness of young people were not above the average for the whole population. The survey was conducted using the questionnaire method. The sample included college and high school students in Moscow (642 and 382, respectively) by method of random selection. The questionnaire was developed by specialists of RUDN University Sociological Laboratory and included both original questions (projective questions, the technique of incomplete sentences), and the standard test Dayhoff S. to determine the level of internal aggressiveness. It is also used as an experiment, the technique of study option using of FACS and SPAFF to determine the psychotypes and determination of non-verbal manifestations of emotions. The study confirmed the hypothesis that in respondents’ opinion, the level of aggression is higher today than a few years ago. Differences were found in the understanding of and respect for such social phenomena as extremism, terrorism, and their danger and appeal for the two age groups of young people. Theory of psychotypes, SPAFF (specific affect cording system) and FACS (facial action cording system) are considered as additional techniques for the diagnosis of a tendency to extreme views. Thus, it is established that diagnostics of acceptance of extreme views among young people is possible thanks to simultaneous use of knowledge from the different fields of socio-humanistic sciences. The results of the research can be used in a comparative context with other countries and as a starting point for further research in the field, taking into account its extreme relevance.

Keywords: Extremism, youth extremism, diagnostics of extremist manifestations, forecast of behavior, Sociological polls, theory of psychotypes, FACS, SPAFF.

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Authors: Saeid Asghari

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The growing interest in sustainability and healthy lifestyles has stimulated the development of solutions that promote mindful consumption and healthier choices. One such solution is the use of transparent graded lanes in product packaging, which enables consumers to visually track their product consumption and encourages portion control. However, the influence of packaging on consumer behavior, trust, and brand loyalty, as well as the effectiveness of messaging on transparent graded lanes, is still not well understood. This research seeks to explore the effects of transparent graded lanes on consumer reactions of the Janbo chain supermarkets in Tehran, Iran, focusing on ketchup and edible oil containers. A representative sample of 720 respondents is selected using quota sampling based on sex, age, and financial status. The study assesses the effect of messaging on the graded lanes in enhancing consumer recall and recognition of the product at the time of purchase, increasing repeated purchases, and fostering long-term relationships with customers. Furthermore, the potential outcomes of using transparent graded lanes, including the promotion of healthy consumption habits and the reduction of food waste, are also considered. The findings and results can inform the development of effective messaging strategies for graded lanes and suggest ways to enhance consumer engagement with product packaging. Moreover, the study's outcomes can contribute to the broader discourse on sustainable consumption and healthy lifestyles, highlighting the potential role of packaging innovations in promoting these values. We used four theories (social cognitive theory, self-perception theory, nudge theory, and marketing and consumer behavior) to examine the effect of these transparent graded lanes on consumer behavior. The conceptual model integrates the use of transparent graded lanes, consumer behavior, trust and loyalty, messaging, and promotion of healthy consumption habits. The study aims to provide insights into how transparent graded lanes can promote mindful consumption, increase consumer recognition and recall of the product, and foster long-term relationships with customers. These innovative packaging designs not only encourage mindful consumption but also promote healthier choices. The communication on the categorized lanes is likewise discovered to be efficient in fostering remembrance and identification of the merchandise during the point of sale and stimulating recurrent acquisition. However, the impact of transparent graded lanes may be limited by factors such as cultural norms, personal values, and financial status. Broadly speaking, the investigation provides valuable insights into the potential benefits and challenges of using transparent graded lanes in product packaging, as well as effective strategies for promoting healthy consumption habits and building long-term relationships with customers.

Keywords: Packaging, customer behavior, purchase, brand loyalty, healthy consumption.

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Authors: Funda Erdem Şahnali, Ş. Özgür Atayılmaz, Tolga N. Aynur

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Almost all of the domestic refrigerators operate on the principle of the vapor compression refrigeration cycle and removal of heat from the refrigerator cabinets is done via one of the two methods: natural convection or forced convection. In this study, airflow and temperature distributions inside a 375L no-frost type larder cabinet, in which cooling is provided by forced convection, are evaluated both experimentally and numerically. Airflow rate, compressor capacity and temperature distribution in the cooling chamber are known to be some of the most important factors that affect the cooling performance and energy consumption of a refrigerator. The objective of this study is to evaluate the original temperature distribution in the larder cabinet, and investigate for better temperature distribution solutions throughout the refrigerator domain via system optimizations that could provide uniform temperature distribution. The flow visualization and airflow velocity measurements inside the original refrigerator are performed via Stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry (SPIV). In addition, airflow and temperature distributions are investigated numerically with Ansys Fluent. In order to study the heat transfer inside the aforementioned refrigerator, forced convection theories covering the following cases are applied: closed rectangular cavity representing heat transfer inside the refrigerating compartment. The cavity volume has been represented with finite volume elements and is solved computationally with appropriate momentum and energy equations (Navier-Stokes equations). The 3D model is analyzed as transient, with k-ε turbulence model and SIMPLE pressure-velocity coupling for turbulent flow situation. The results obtained with the 3D numerical simulations are in quite good agreement with the experimental airflow measurements using the SPIV technique. After Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis of the baseline case, the effects of three parameters: compressor capacity, fan rotational speed and type of shelf (glass or wire) are studied on the energy consumption; pull down time, temperature distributions in the cabinet. For each case, energy consumption based on experimental results is calculated. After the analysis, the main effective parameters for temperature distribution inside a cabin and energy consumption based on CFD simulation are determined and simulation results are supplied for Design of Experiments (DOE) as input data for optimization. The best configuration with minimum energy consumption that provides minimum temperature difference between the shelves inside the cabinet is determined.

Keywords: Air distribution, CFD, DOE, energy consumption, larder cabinet, refrigeration, uniform temperature.

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Authors: Natasha Bhate

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Contraception is important in helping to reduce maternal and infant mortality rates by allowing women to control the number and spacing in-between their children. It also reduces the need for unsafe abortions. Women worldwide use contraception; however, the contraceptive prevalence rate is still relatively low in Central American countries like Guatemala. There is also an unmet need for contraception in Guatemala, which is more significant in rural, indigenous women due to barriers preventing contraceptive use. The study objective was to investigate and analyse the current barriers women face, in Guatemala, Panajachel and the surrounding areas, in using contraception, with a view of identifying ways to overcome these barriers. This included exploring the contraceptive barriers women believe exist and the influence of males in contraceptive decision making. The study took place at a charity in Panajachel, Guatemala, and had a cross-sectional, qualitative design to allow an in-depth understanding of information gathered. This particular study design was also chosen to help inform the charity with qualitative research analysis, in view of their intent to create a local reproductive health programme. A semi-structured interview design, including photo facilitation to improve cross-cultural communication, with interpreter assistance, was utilized. A pilot interview was initially conducted with small improvements required. Participants were recruited through purposive and convenience sampling. The study host at the charity acted as a gatekeeper; participants were identified through attendance of the charity’s women’s-initiative programme workshops. 20 participants were selected and agreed to study participation with two not attending; a total of 18 participants were interviewed in June 2017. Interviews were audio-recorded and data were stored on encrypted memory sticks. Framework analysis was used to analyse the data using NVivo11 software. The University of Leeds granted ethical approval for the research. Religion, language, the community, and fear of sickness were examples of existing contraceptive barrier themes recognized by many participants. The influence of men was also an important barrier identified, with themes of machismo and abuse preventing contraceptive use in some women. Women from more rural areas were believed to still face barriers which some participants did not encounter anymore, such as distance and affordability of contraceptives. Participants believed that informative workshops in various settings were an ideal method of overcoming existing contraceptive barriers and allowing women to be more empowered. The involvement of men in such workshops was also deemed important by participants to help reduce their negative influence in contraceptive usage. Overall, four recommendations following this study were made, including contraceptive educational courses, a gender equality campaign, couple-focused contraceptive workshops, and further qualitative research to gain a better insight into men’s opinions regarding women using contraception.

Keywords: Barrier, contraception, machismo, religion.

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Authors: S. Chuenchooklin

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This research was conducted in the Pua Watershed whereas located in the Upper Nan River Basin in Nan province, Thailand. Nan River basin originated in Nan province that comprises of many tributary streams to produce as inflow to the Sirikit dam provided huge reservoir with the storage capacity of 9510 million cubic meters. The common problems of most watersheds were found i.e. shortage water supply for consumption and agriculture utilizations, deteriorate of water quality, flood and landslide including debris flow, and unstable of riverbank. The Pua Watershed is one of several small river basins that flow through the Nan River Basin. The watershed includes 404 km2 representing the Pua District, the Upper Nan Basin, or the whole Nan River Basin, of 61.5%, 18.2% or 1.2% respectively. The Pua River is a main stream producing all year streamflow supplying the Pua District and an inflow to the Upper Nan Basin. Its length approximately 56.3 kilometers with an average slope of the channel by 1.9% measured. A diversion weir namely Pua weir bound the plain and mountainous areas with a very steep slope of the riverbed to 2.9% and drainage area of 149 km2 as upstream watershed while a mild slope of the riverbed to 0.2% found in a river reach of 20.3 km downstream of this weir, which considered as a gauged basin. However, the major branch streams of the Pua River are ungauged catchments namely: Nam Kwang and Nam Koon with the drainage area of 86 and 35 km2 respectively. These upstream watersheds produce runoff through the 3-streams downstream of Pua weir, Jao weir, and Kang weir, with an averaged annual runoff of 578 million cubic meters. They were analyzed using both statistical data at Pua weir and simulated data resulted from the hydrologic modeling system (HEC–HMS) which applied for the remaining ungauged basins. Since the Kwang and Koon catchments were limited with lack of hydrological data included streamflow and rainfall. Therefore, the mathematical modeling: HEC-HMS with the Snyder-s hydrograph synthesized and transposed methods were applied for those areas using calibrated hydrological parameters from the upstream of Pua weir with continuously daily recorded of streamflow and rainfall data during 2008-2011. The results showed that the simulated daily streamflow and sum up as annual runoff in 2008, 2010, and 2011 were fitted with observed annual runoff at Pua weir using the simple linear regression with the satisfied correlation R2 of 0.64, 062, and 0.59, respectively. The sensitivity of simulation results were come from difficulty using calibrated parameters i.e. lag-time, coefficient of peak flow, initial losses, uniform loss rates, and missing some daily observed data. These calibrated parameters were used to apply for the other 2-ungauged catchments and downstream catchments simulated.

Keywords: Streamflow, hydrological model, ungauged catchments.

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Authors: Khaled M. Khader, Mamdouh I. Elimy, Omayma A. Nada

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Sustainable development is the nominal goal of most countries at present. In general, fossil fuels are the development mainstay of most world countries. Regrettably, the fossil fuel consumption rate is very high, and the world is facing the problem of conventional fuels depletion soon. In addition, there are many problems of environmental pollution resulting from the emission of harmful gases and vapors during fuel burning. Thus, clean, renewable energy became the main concern of most countries for filling the gap between available energy resources and their growing needs. There are many renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and wave energy. Energy can be obtained from the motion of sea waves almost all the time. However, power generation from solar or wind energy is highly restricted to sunny periods or the availability of suitable wind speeds. Moreover, energy produced from sea wave motion is one of the cheapest types of clean energy. In addition, renewable energy usage of sea waves guarantees safe environmental conditions. Cheap electricity can be generated from wave energy using different systems such as oscillating bodies' system, pendulum gate system, ocean wave dragon system and oscillating water column device. In this paper, a multi-criteria model has been developed using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to support the decision of selecting the most effective system for generating power from sea waves. This paper provides a widespread overview of the different design alternatives for sea wave energy converter systems. The considered design alternatives have been evaluated using the developed AHP model. The multi-criteria assessment reveals that the off-shore Oscillating Water Column (OWC) system is the most appropriate system for generating power from sea waves. The OWC system consists of a suitable hollow chamber at the shore which is completely closed except at its base which has an open area for gathering moving sea waves. Sea wave's motion pushes the air up and down passing through a suitable well turbine for generating power. Improving the power generation capability of the OWC system is one of the main objectives of this research. After investigating the effect of some design modifications, it has been concluded that selecting the appropriate settings of some effective design parameters such as the number of layers of Wells turbine fans and the intermediate distance between the fans can result in significant improvements. Moreover, simple dynamic analysis of the Wells turbine is introduced. Furthermore, this paper strives for comparing the theoretical and experimental results of the built experimental prototype.

Keywords: Renewable energy, oscillating water column, multi-criteria selection, wells turbine.

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Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

Abstract:

We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: Autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision-support, interventions, patterns-of-life, predictive analytics, predictive insights.

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Authors: Wisam H. Benamer, Ehab A. Elfallah, Mohamed A. Elshaari, Farag A. Elshaari

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A challenge for laboratories is to provide bacterial identification and antibiotic sensitivity results within a short time. Hence, advancement in the required technology is desirable to improve timing, accuracy and quality. Even with the current advances in methods used for both phenotypic and genotypic identification of bacteria the need is there to develop method(s) that enhance the outcome of bacteriology laboratories in accuracy and time. The hypothesis introduced here is based on the assumption that the chromosome of any bacteria contains unique sequences that can be used for its identification and typing. The outcome of a pilot study designed to test this hypothesis is reported in this manuscript. Methods: The complete chromosome sequences of several bacterial species were downloaded to use as search targets for unique sequences. Visual basic and SQL server (2014) were used to generate a complete set of 18-base long primers, a process started with reverse translation of randomly chosen 6 amino acids to limit the number of the generated primers. In addition, the software used to scan the downloaded chromosomes using the generated primers for similarities was designed, and the resulting hits were classified according to the number of similar chromosomal sequences, i.e., unique or otherwise. Results: All primers that had identical/similar sequences in the selected genome sequence(s) were classified according to the number of hits in the chromosomes search. Those that were identical to a single site on a single bacterial chromosome were referred to as unique. On the other hand, most generated primers sequences were identical to multiple sites on a single or multiple chromosomes. Following scanning, the generated primers were classified based on ability to differentiate between medically important bacterial and the initial results looks promising. Conclusion: A simple strategy that started by generating primers was introduced; the primers were used to screen bacterial genomes for match. Primer(s) that were uniquely identical to specific DNA sequence on a specific bacterial chromosome were selected. The identified unique sequence can be used in different molecular diagnostic techniques, possibly to identify bacteria. In addition, a single primer that can identify multiple sites in a single chromosome can be exploited for region or genome identification. Although genomes sequences draft of isolates of organism DNA enable high throughput primer design using alignment strategy, and this enhances diagnostic performance in comparison to traditional molecular assays. In this method the generated primers can be used to identify an organism before the draft sequence is completed. In addition, the generated primers can be used to build a bank for easy access of the primers that can be used to identify bacteria.

Keywords: Bacteria chromosome, bacterial identification, sequence, primer generation.

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Authors: Khan Farhan Rafat, Riaz Ahmed

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Renowned offshore organizations are drifting towards collaborative exertion to win and implement international projects for business gains. However, devoid of financial constraints, with the availability of skilled professionals, and despite improved project management practices through state-of-the-art tools and techniques, project delays have become a norm these days. This situation calls for exploring the factor(s) affecting the bonding between project management performance and project success. In the context of the well-known 3M’s of project management (that is, manpower, machinery, and materials), machinery and materials are dependent upon manpower. Because the body of knowledge inveterate on the influence of national culture on men, hence, the realization of the impact on the link between project management performance and project success need to be investigated in detail to arrive at the possible cause(s) of project delays. This research initiative was, therefore, undertaken to fill the research gap. The unit of analysis for the proposed research excretion was the individuals who had worked on skyscraper construction projects. In reverent studies, project management is best described using construction examples. It is due to this reason that the project oriented city of Dubai was chosen to reconnoiter on causes of project delays. A structured questionnaire survey was disseminated online with the courtesy of the Project Management Institute local chapter to carry out the cross-sectional study. The Construction Industry Institute, Austin, of the United States of America along with 23 high-rise builders in Dubai were also contacted by email requesting for their contribution to the study and providing them with the online link to the survey questionnaire. The reliability of the instrument was warranted using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.70. The appropriateness of sampling adequacy and homogeneity in variance was ensured by keeping Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin (KMO) and Bartlett’s test of sphericity in the range ≥ 0.60 and < 0.05, respectively. Factor analysis was used to verify construct validity. During exploratory factor analysis, all items were loaded using a threshold of 0.4. Four hundred and seventeen respondents, including members from top management, project managers, and project staff, contributed to the study. The link between project management performance and project success was significant at 0.01 level (2-tailed), and 0.05 level (2-tailed) for Pearson’s correlation. Before initiating the moderator analysis test for linearity, multicollinearity, outliers, leverage points and influential cases, test for homoscedasticity and normality were carried out which are prerequisites for conducting moderator review. The moderator analysis, using a macro named PROCESS, was performed to verify the hypothesis that national culture has an influence on the said link. The empirical findings, when compared with Hofstede's results, showed high power distance as the cause of construction project delays in Dubai. The research outcome calls for the project sponsors and top management to reshape their project management strategy and allow for low power distance between management and project personnel for timely completion of projects.

Keywords: Causes of construction project delays, construction industry, construction management, power distance.

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Authors: Pavana Manvikar, G K Purohit

Abstract:

The functional performance of machined components, often, depends on surface topography, hardness, nature of stress and strain induced on the surface, etc. Invariably, surfaces of metallic components obtained by turning, milling, etc., consist of irregularities such as machining marks are responsible for the above. Surface finishing/coating processes used to produce improved surface quality/textures are classified as chip-removal and chip-less processes. Burnishing is chip-less cold working process carried out to improve surface finish, hardness and resistance to fatigue and corrosion; not obtainable by other surface coating and surface treatment processes. It is a very simple, but effective method which improves surface characteristics and is reported to introduce compressive stresses.

Of late, considerable attention is paid to post-machining, finishing operations, such as burnishing. During burnishing the micro-irregularities start to deform plastically, initially the crests are gradually flattened and zones of reduced deformation are formed. When all the crests are deformed, the valleys between the micro-irregularities start moving in the direction of the newly formed surface. The grain structure is then condensed, producing a smoother and harder surface with superior load-carrying and wear-resistant capabilities.

Burnishing can be performed on a lathe with a highly polished ball or roller type tool which is traversed under force over a rotating/stationary work piece. Often, several passes are used to obtain the work piece surface with the desired finish and hardness.

This paper presents the findings of an experimental investigation on the effect of ball burnishing parameters such as, burnishing speed, feed, force and number of passes; on surface roughness (Ra) and micro-hardness (Hv) of a 60/40 copper/zinc alloy, using a 2-level fractional factorial design of experiments (DoE). Mathematical models were developed to predict surface roughness and hardness generated by burnishing in terms of the above process parameters. A ball-type tool, designed and constructed from a high chrome steel material (HR_C=63 and Ra=0.012 µm), was used for burnishing of fine-turned cylindrical bars (0.68-0.78µm and 145Hv). They are given by,

 

Ra= 0.305-0.005X₁ - 0.0175X₂ + 0.0525X₄ + 0.0125X₁X₄ -0.02X₂X₄ - 0.0375X₃X₄

 

Hv=160.625 -2.37 5X₁ + 5.125X₂ + 1.875X₃ + 4.375X₄ - 1.625X₁X₄ + 4.375X₂X₄ - 2.375X₃X₄

 

High surface microhardness (175H_V) was obtained at 400rpm, 2passes, 0.05mm/rev and 15kgf., and high surface finish (0.20µm) was achieved at 30kgf, 0.1mm/rev, 112rpm and single pass. In other words, surface finish improved by 350% and microhardness improved by 21% compared to as machined conditions.

Keywords: Ball burnishing, surface roughness, micro-hardness.

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Authors: Sotirios Raptis

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Health and Social care (HSc) services planning and scheduling are facing unprecedented challenges, due to the pandemic pressure and also suffer from unplanned spending that is negatively impacted by the global financial crisis. Data-driven approaches can help to improve policies, plan and design services provision schedules using algorithms that assist healthcare managers to face unexpected demands using fewer resources. The paper discusses services packing using statistical significance tests and machine learning (ML) to evaluate demands similarity and coupling. This is achieved by predicting the range of the demand (class) using ML methods such as Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forests (RF), and Logistic Regression (LGR). The significance tests Chi-Squared and Student’s test are used on data over a 39 years span for which data exist for services delivered in Scotland. The demands are associated using probabilities and are parts of statistical hypotheses. These hypotheses, as their NULL part, assume that the target demand is statistically dependent on other services’ demands. This linking is checked using the data. In addition, ML methods are used to linearly predict the above target demands from the statistically found associations and extend the linear dependence of the target’s demand to independent demands forming, thus, groups of services. Statistical tests confirmed ML coupling and made the prediction statistically meaningful and proved that a target service can be matched reliably to other services while ML showed that such marked relationships can also be linear ones. Zero padding was used for missing years records and illustrated better such relationships both for limited years and for the entire span offering long-term data visualizations while limited years periods explained how well patients numbers can be related in short periods of time or that they can change over time as opposed to behaviours across more years. The prediction performance of the associations were measured using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under Curve (AUC) and Accuracy (ACC) as well as the statistical tests Chi-Squared and Student. Co-plots and comparison tables for the RF, CART, and LGR methods as well as the p-value from tests and Information Exchange (IE/MIE) measures are provided showing the relative performance of ML methods and of the statistical tests as well as the behaviour using different learning ratios. The impact of k-neighbours classification (k-NN), Cross-Correlation (CC) and C-Means (CM) first groupings was also studied over limited years and for the entire span. It was found that CART was generally behind RF and LGR but in some interesting cases, LGR reached an AUC = 0 falling below CART, while the ACC was as high as 0.912 showing that ML methods can be confused by zero-padding or by data’s irregularities or by the outliers. On average, 3 linear predictors were sufficient, LGR was found competing well RF and CART followed with the same performance at higher learning ratios. Services were packed only when a significance level (p-value) of their association coefficient was more than 0.05. Social factors relationships were observed between home care services and treatment of old people, low birth weights, alcoholism, drug abuse, and emergency admissions. The work found  that different HSc services can be well packed as plans of limited duration, across various services sectors, learning configurations, as confirmed by using statistical hypotheses.

Keywords: Class, cohorts, data frames, grouping, prediction, probabilities, services.

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Authors: Mathias U. Bonet, Pericles Pilidis, Georgios Doulgeris

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A gas turbine-powered cruise Liner is scheduled to transport pilgrim passengers from Lagos-Nigeria to the Islamic port city of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. Since the gas turbine is an air breathing machine, changes in the density and/or mass flow at the compressor inlet due to an encounter with variations in weather conditions induce negative effects on the performance of the power plant during the voyage. In practice, all deviations from the reference atmospheric conditions of 15 ^oC and 1.103 bar tend to affect the power output and other thermodynamic parameters of the gas turbine cycle. Therefore, this paper seeks to evaluate how a simple cycle marine gas turbine power plant would react under a variety of scenarios that may be encountered during a voyage as the ship sails across the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea before arriving at its designated port of discharge. It is also an assessment that focuses on the effect of varying aerodynamic and hydrodynamic conditions which deteriorate the efficient operation of the propulsion system due to an increase in resistance that results from some projected levels of the ship hull fouling. The investigated passenger ship is designed to run at a service speed of 22 knots and cover a distance of 5787 nautical miles. The performance evaluation consists of three separate voyages that cover a variety of weather conditions in winter, spring and summer seasons. Real-time daily temperatures and the sea states for the selected transit route were obtained and used to simulate the voyage under the aforementioned operating conditions. Changes in engine firing temperature, power output as well as the total fuel consumed per voyage including other performance variables were separately predicted under both calm and adverse weather conditions. The collated data were obtained online from the UK Meteorological Office as well as the UK Hydrographic Office websites, while adopting the Beaufort scale for determining the magnitude of sea waves resulting from rough weather situations. The simulation of the gas turbine performance and voyage analysis was effected through the use of an integrated Cranfield-University-developed computer code known as ‘Turbomatch’ and ‘Poseidon’. It is a project that is aimed at developing a method for predicting the off design behavior of the marine gas turbine when installed and operated as the main prime mover for both propulsion and powering of all other auxiliary services onboard a passenger cruise liner. Furthermore, it is a techno-economic and environmental assessment that seeks to enable the forecast of the marine gas turbine part and full load performance as it relates to the fuel requirement for a complete voyage.

Keywords:

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Authors: Hajar Mohammadpour Kachlami , Ghasem Javadzadeh Moghtader , Habib Mohammadpour Kachlami

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Nowadays due to globalization of economy and competition environment, innovation and technology plays key role at creation of wealth and economic growth of countries. In fact prompt growth of practical and technologic knowledge may results in social benefits for countries when changes into effective innovation. Considering the importance of innovation for the development of countries, this study addresses the radical technological innovation introduced by nanopapers at different stages of producing paper including stock preparation, using authorized additives, fillers and pigments, using retention, calender, stages of producing conductive paper, porous nanopaper and Layer by layer self-assembly. Research results show that in coming years the jungle related products will lose considerable portion of their market share, unless embracing radical innovation. Although incremental innovations can make this industry still competitive in mid-term, but to have economic growth and competitive advantage in long term, radical innovations are necessary. Radical innovations can lead to new products and materials which their applications in packaging industry can produce value added. However application of nanotechnology in this industry can be costly, it can be done in cooperation with other industries to make the maximum use of nanotechnology possible. Therefore this technology can be used in all the production process resulting in the mass production of simple and flexible papers with low cost and special properties such as facility at shape, form, easy transportation, light weight, recovery and recycle marketing abilities, and sealing. Improving the resistance of the packaging materials without reducing the performance of packaging materials enhances the quality and the value added of packaging. Improving the cellulose at nano scale can have considerable electron optical and magnetic effects leading to improvement in packaging and value added. Comparing to the specifications of thermoplastic products and ordinary papers, nanopapers show much better performance in terms of effective mechanical indexes such as the modulus of elasticity, tensile strength, and strain-stress. In densities lower than 640 kgm -3, due to the network structure of nanofibers and the balanced and randomized distribution of NFC in flat space, these specifications will even improve more. For nanopapers, strains are 1,4Gpa, 84Mpa and 17%, 13,3 Gpa, 214Mpa and 10% respectively. In layer by layer self assembly method (LbL) the tensile strength of nanopaper with Tio3 particles and Sio2 and halloysite clay nanotube are 30,4 ±7.6Nm/g and 13,6 ±0.8Nm/g and 14±0.3,3Nm/g respectively that fall within acceptable range of similar samples with virgin fiber. The usage of improved brightness and porosity index in nanopapers can create more competitive advantages at packaging industry.

Keywords: Innovation; NanoPaper; Nanofiber; Packaging

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Authors: László L. Lippai

Abstract:

In addition to the fact that mental health bears great significance to a particular individual, it can also be regarded as an organizational, community and societal resource. Within the Szeged Health Promotion Research Group, we conducted mental health surveys on two levels: The inhabitants of a medium-sized Hungarian town and students of a Hungarian university with a relatively big headcount were requested to participate in surveys whose goals were to define local government priorities and organization-level health promotion programmes, respectively. To facilitate professional decision-making, we defined three, pragmatically relevant, groups of the target population: the mentally healthy, the vulnerable and the endangered. In order to determine which group a person actually belongs to, we designed a simple and quick measurement tool, which could even be utilised as a smoothing method, the Mental State Questionnaire validity of the above three categories was verified by analysis of variance against psychological quality of life variables. We demonstrate the pragmatic significance of our method via the analyses of the scores of our two mental health surveys. On town level, during our representative survey in Hódmezővásárhely (N=1839), we found that 38.7% of the participants was mentally healthy, 35.3% was vulnerable, while 16.3% was considered as endangered. We were able to identify groups that were in a dramatic state in terms of mental health. For example, such a group consisted of men aged 45 to 64 with only primary education qualification and the ratios of the mentally healthy, vulnerable and endangered were 4.5, 45.5 and 50%, respectively. It was also astonishing to see to what a little extent qualification prevailed as a protective factor in the case of women. Based on our data, the female group aged 18 to 44 with primary education—of whom 20.3% was mentally healthy, 42.4% vulnerable and 37.3% was endangered—as well as the female group aged 45 to 64 with university or college degree—of whom 25% was mentally healthy, 51.3 vulnerable and 23.8% endangered—are to be handled as priority intervention target groups in a similarly difficult position. On organizational level, our survey involving the students of the University of Szeged, N=1565, provided data to prepare a strategy of mental health promotion for a university with a headcount exceeding 20,000. When developing an organizational strategy, it was important to gather information to estimate the proportions of target groups in which mental health promotion methods; for example, life management skills development, detection, psychological consultancy, psychotherapy, would be applied. Our scores show that 46.8% of the student participants were mentally healthy, 42.1% were vulnerable and 11.1% were endangered. These data convey relevant information as to the allocation of organizational resources within a university with a considerable headcount. In conclusion, The Mental State Questionnaire, as a valid smoothing method, is adequate to describe a community in a plain and informative way in the terms of mental health. The application of the method can promote the preparation, design and implementation of mental health promotion interventions. 

Keywords: Health promotion, mental health promotion, mental state questionnaire, psychological well-being.

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Authors: M. Keshavarzi

Abstract:

Grasslands of Iran are encountered with a vast desertification and destruction. Some legumes are plants of forage importance with high palatability. Studied legumes in this project are Onobrychis, Medicago sativa (alfalfa) and Trifolium repens. Seeds were cultivated in research field of Kaboutarabad (33 km East of Isfahan, Iran) with an average 80 mm. annual rainfall. Plants were cultivated in a split plot design with 3 replicate and two water treatments (weekly irrigation, and under stress with same amount per 15 days interval). Water entrance to each plots were measured by Partial flow. This project lasted 20 weeks. Destructive samplings (1m2 each time) were done weekly. At each sampling plants were gathered and weighed separately for each vegetative parts. An Area Meter (Vista) was used to measure root surface and leaf area. Total shoot and root fresh and dry weight, leaf area index and soil coverage were evaluated too. Dry weight was achieved in 750c oven after 24 hours. Statgraphic and Harvard Graphic software were used to formulate and demonstrate the parameters curves due to time. Our results show that Trifolium repens has affected 60 % and Medicago sativa 18% by water stress. Onobrychis total fresh weight was reduced 45%. Dry weight or Biomass in alfalfa is not so affected by water shortage. This means that in alfalfa fields we can decrease the irrigation amount and have some how same amount of Biomass. Onobrychis show a drastic decrease in Biomass. The increases in total dry matter due to time in studied plants are formulated. For Trifolium repens if removal or cattle entrance to meadows do not occurred at perfect time, it will decrease the palatability and water content of the shoots. Water stress in a short period could develop the root system in Trifolium repens, but if it last more than this other ecological and soil factors will affect the growth of this plant. Low level of soil water is not so important for studied legume forges. But water shortage affect palatability and water content of aerial parts. Leaf area due to time in studied legumes is formulated. In fact leaf area is decreased by shortage in available water. Higher leaf area means higher forage and biomass production. Medicago and Onobrychis reach to the maximum leaf area sooner than Trifolium and are able to produce an optimum soil cover and inhibit the transpiration of soil water of meadows. Correlation of root surface to Total biomass in studied plants is formulated. Medicago under water stress show a 40% decrease in crown cover while at optimum condition this amount reach to 100%. In order to produce forage in areas without soil erosion Medicago is the best choice even with a shortage in water resources. It is tried to represent the growth simulation of three famous Forage Legumes. By growth simulation farmers and range managers could better decide to choose best plant adapted to water availability without designing different time and labor consuming field experiments.

Keywords: Ecological parameters, Medicago, Onobrychis, Trifolium.

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Authors: M. N. Nwodo, Y. P. Cheng, N. H. Minh

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In the process of recovering oil in weak sandstone formations, the strength of sandstones around the wellbore is weakened due to the increase of effective stress/load from the completion activities around the cavity. The weakened and de-bonded sandstone may be eroded away by the produced fluid, which is termed sand production. It is one of the major trending subjects in the petroleum industry because of its significant negative impacts, as well as some observed positive impacts. For efficient sand management therefore, there has been need for a reliable study tool to understand the mechanism of sanding. One method of studying sand production is the use of the widely recognized Discrete Element Method (DEM), Particle Flow Code (PFC^3D) which represents sands as granular individual elements bonded together at contact points. However, there is limited knowledge of the particle-scale behavior of the weak sandstone, and the parameters that affect sanding. This paper aims to investigate the reliability of using PFC^3D and a simple Darcy flow in understanding the sand production behavior of a weak sandstone. An isotropic tri-axial test on a weak oil sandstone sample was first simulated at a confining stress of 1MPa to calibrate and validate the parallel bond models of PFC^3D using a 10m height and 10m diameter solid cylindrical model. The effect of the confining stress on the number of bonds failure was studied using this cylindrical model. With the calibrated data and sample material properties obtained from the tri-axial test, simulations without and with fluid flow were carried out to check on the effect of Darcy flow on bonds failure using the same model geometry. The fluid flow network comprised of every four particles connected with tetrahedral flow pipes with a central pore or flow domain. Parametric studies included the effects of confining stress, and fluid pressure; as well as validating flow rate – permeability relationship to verify Darcy’s fluid flow law. The effect of model size scaling on sanding was also investigated using 4m height, 2m diameter model. The parallel bond model successfully calibrated the sample’s strength of 4.4MPa, showing a sharp peak strength before strain-softening, similar to the behavior of real cemented sandstones. There seems to be an exponential increasing relationship for the bigger model, but a curvilinear shape for the smaller model. The presence of the Darcy flow induced tensile forces and increased the number of broken bonds. For the parametric studies, flow rate has a linear relationship with permeability at constant pressure head. The higher the fluid flow pressure, the higher the number of broken bonds/sanding. The DEM PFC^3D is a promising tool to studying the micromechanical behavior of cemented sandstones.

Keywords: Discrete Element Method, fluid flow, parametric study, sand production/bonds failure.

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Authors: Antonis Skouloudis, Georgios Deligiannakis, Panagiotis Vouros, Konstantinos Evangelinos, Ioannis Nikolaou

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On November 15th, 2017, a catastrophic flash flood devastated the city of Mandra in Central Greece, resulting in 24 fatalities and extensive damages to the built environment and infrastructure. It was Greece’s deadliest and most destructive flood event for the past 40 years. In this paper, we examine the consequences of this event to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in Mandra during the flood event, which were affected by the floodwaters to varying extents. In this context, we conducted semi-structured interviews with business owners-managers of 45 SMEs located in flood inundated areas and are still active nowadays, based on an interview guide that spanned 27 topics. The topics pertained to the disaster experience of the business and business owners-managers, knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and extreme weather, aspects of disaster preparedness and related assistance needs. Our findings reveal that the vast majority of the affected businesses experienced heavy damages in equipment and infrastructure or total destruction, which resulted in business interruption from several weeks up to several months. Assistance from relatives or friends helped for the damage repairs and business recovery, while state compensations were deemed insufficient compared to the extent of the damages. Most interviewees pinpoint flooding as one of the most critical risks, and many connect it with the climate crisis. However, they are either not willing or unable to apply property-level prevention measures in their businesses due to cost considerations or complex and cumbersome bureaucratic processes. In all cases, the business owners are fully aware of the flood hazard implications, and since the recovery from the event, they have engaged in basic mitigation measures and contingency plans in case of future flood events. Such plans include insurance contracts whenever possible (as the vast majority of the affected SMEs were uninsured at the time of the 2017 event) as well as simple relocations of critical equipment within their property. The study offers fruitful insights on latent drivers and barriers of SMEs’ resilience capacity to flash flooding. In this respect, findings such as ours, highlighting tensions that underpin behavioural responses and experiences, can feed into: a) bottom-up approaches for devising actionable and practical guidelines, manuals and/or standards on business preparedness to flooding, and, ultimately, b) policy-making for an enabling environment towards a flood-resilient SME sector.

Keywords: Flash flood, small and medium-sized enterprises, organisational resilience capacity, disaster preparedness, qualitative study.

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Authors: Steven W. Carruthers

Abstract:

The purpose of the present research is to equate two test forms as part of a study to evaluate the educational effectiveness of the ARTé: Mecenas art history learning game. The researcher applied Item Response Theory (IRT) procedures to calculate item, test, and mean-sigma equating parameters. With the sample size n=134, test parameters indicated “good” model fit but low Test Information Functions and more acute than expected equating parameters. Therefore, the researcher applied equipercentile equating and linear equating to raw scores and compared the equated form parameters and effect sizes from each method. Item scaling in IRT enables the researcher to select a subset of well-discriminating items. The mean-sigma step produces a mean-slope adjustment from the anchor items, which was used to scale the score on the new form (Form R) to the reference form (Form Q) scale. In equipercentile equating, scores are adjusted to align the proportion of scores in each quintile segment. Linear equating produces a mean-slope adjustment, which was applied to all core items on the new form. The study followed a quasi-experimental design with purposeful sampling of students enrolled in a college level art history course (n=134) and counterbalancing design to distribute both forms on the pre- and posttests. The Experimental Group (n=82) was asked to play ARTé: Mecenas online and complete Level 4 of the game within a two-week period; 37 participants completed Level 4. Over the same period, the Control Group (n=52) did not play the game. The researcher examined between group differences from post-test scores on test Form Q and Form R by full-factorial Two-Way ANOVA. The raw score analysis indicated a 1.29% direct effect of form, which was statistically non-significant but may be practically significant. The researcher repeated the between group differences analysis with all three equating methods. For the IRT mean-sigma adjusted scores, form had a direct effect of 8.39%. Mean-sigma equating with a small sample may have resulted in inaccurate equating parameters. Equipercentile equating aligned test means and standard deviations, but resultant skewness and kurtosis worsened compared to raw score parameters. Form had a 3.18% direct effect. Linear equating produced the lowest Form effect, approaching 0%. Using linearly equated scores, the researcher conducted an ANCOVA to examine the effect size in terms of prior knowledge. The between group effect size for the Control Group versus Experimental Group participants who completed the game was 14.39% with a 4.77% effect size attributed to pre-test score. Playing and completing the game increased art history knowledge, and individuals with low prior knowledge tended to gain more from pre- to post test. Ultimately, researchers should approach test equating based on their theoretical stance on Classical Test Theory and IRT and the respective  assumptions. Regardless of the approach or method, test equating requires a representative sample of sufficient size. With small sample sizes, the application of a range of equating approaches can expose item and test features for review, inform interpretation, and identify paths for improving instruments for future study.

Keywords: Effectiveness, equipercentile equating, IRT, learning games, linear equating, mean-sigma equating.

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Authors: Julia Terlet, Thomas H. Beach, Yacine Rezgui

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Urbanization, population growth, climate change and the current increase in water demand have made the adoption of innovative demand management strategies crucial to the water industry. Water conservation in urban areas has to be improved by encouraging consumers to adopt more sustainable habits and behaviours. This includes informing and educating them about their households’ water consumption and advising them about ways to achieve significant savings on a daily basis. This paper presents a study conducted in the context of the European FP7 WISDOM Project. By integrating innovative Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) frameworks, this project aims at achieving a change in water savings. More specifically, behavioural change will be attempted by implementing smart meters and in-home displays in a trial group of selected households within Cardiff (UK). Using this device, consumers will be able to receive feedback and information about their consumption but will also have the opportunity to compare their consumption to the consumption of other consumers and similar households. Following an initial survey, it appeared necessary to implement these in-home displays in a way that matches consumer's motivations to save water. The results demonstrated the importance of various factors influencing people’s daily water consumption. Both the relevant literature on the subject and the results of our survey therefore led us to include within the in-home device a variety of elements. It first appeared crucial to make consumers aware of the economic aspect of water conservation and especially of the significant financial savings that can be achieved by reducing their household’s water consumption on the long term. Likewise, reminding participants of the impact of their consumption on the environment by making them more aware of water scarcity issues around the world will help increasing their motivation to save water. Additionally, peer pressure and social comparisons with neighbours and other consumers, accentuated by the use of online social networks such as Facebook or Twitter, will likely encourage consumers to reduce their consumption. Participants will also be able to compare their current consumption to their past consumption and to observe the consequences of their efforts to save water through diverse graphs and charts. Finally, including a virtual water game within the display will help the whole household, children and adults, to achieve significant reductions by providing them with simple tips and advice to save water on a daily basis. Moreover, by setting daily and weekly goals for them to reach, the game will expectantly generate cooperation between family members. Members of each household will indeed be encouraged to work together to reduce their water consumption within different rooms of the house, such as the bathroom, the kitchen, or the toilets. Overall, this study will allow us to understand the elements that attract consumers the most and the features that are most commonly used by the participants. In this way, we intend to determine the main factors influencing water consumption in order to identify the measures that will most encourage water conservation in both the long and short term.

Keywords: Behavioural change, ICT technologies, water consumption, water conservation.

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