Search results for: multiple linear models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5262

Search results for: multiple linear models

5082 Linear Cryptanalysis for a Chaos-Based Stream Cipher

Authors: Ruming Yin, Jian Yuan, Qiuhua Yang, Xiuming Shan, Xiqin Wang

Abstract:

Linear cryptanalysis methods are rarely used to improve the security of chaotic stream ciphers. In this paper, we apply linear cryptanalysis to a chaotic stream cipher which was designed by strictly using the basic design criterion of cryptosystem – confusion and diffusion. We show that this well-designed chaos-based stream cipher is still insecure against distinguishing attack. This distinguishing attack promotes the further improvement of the cipher.

Keywords: Stream cipher, chaos, linear cryptanalysis, distinguishing attack.

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5081 Linear Maps That Preserve Left Spectrum of Diagonal Quaternionic Matrices

Authors: Geng Yuan, Yiwan Guo, Fahui Zhai, Shuhua Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss some properties of left spectrum and give the representation of linear preserver map the left spectrum of diagonal quaternionic matrices.

Keywords: Quaternionic matrix, left spectrum, linear preserver map.

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5080 Significance of Splitting Method in Non-linear Grid system for the Solution of Navier-Stokes Equation

Authors: M. Zamani, O. Kahar

Abstract:

Solution to unsteady Navier-Stokes equation by Splitting method in physical orthogonal algebraic curvilinear coordinate system, also termed 'Non-linear grid system' is presented. The linear terms in Navier-Stokes equation are solved by Crank- Nicholson method while the non-linear term is solved by the second order Adams-Bashforth method. This work is meant to bring together the advantage of Splitting method as pressure-velocity solver of higher efficiency with the advantage of consuming Non-linear grid system which produce more accurate results in relatively equal number of grid points as compared to Cartesian grid. The validation of Splitting method as a solution of Navier-Stokes equation in Nonlinear grid system is done by comparison with the benchmark results for lid driven cavity flow by Ghia and some case studies including Backward Facing Step Flow Problem.

Keywords: Navier-Stokes, 'Non-linear grid system', Splitting method.

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5079 Jacobi-Based Methods in Solving Fuzzy Linear Systems

Authors: Lazim Abdullah, Nurhakimah Ab. Rahman

Abstract:

Linear systems are widely used in many fields of science and engineering. In many applications, at least some of the parameters of the system are represented by fuzzy rather than crisp numbers. Therefore it is important to perform numerical algorithms or procedures that would treat general fuzzy linear systems and solve them using iterative methods. This paper aims are to solve fuzzy linear systems using four types of Jacobi based iterative methods. Four iterative methods based on Jacobi are used for solving a general n × n fuzzy system of linear equations of the form Ax = b , where A is a crisp matrix and b an arbitrary fuzzy vector. The Jacobi, Jacobi Over-Relaxation, Refinement of Jacobi and Refinement of Jacobi Over-Relaxation methods was tested to a five by five fuzzy linear system. It is found that all the tested methods were iterated differently. Due to the effect of extrapolation parameters and the refinement, the Refinement of Jacobi Over-Relaxation method was outperformed the other three methods.

Keywords: Fuzzy linear systems, Jacobi, Jacobi Over- Relaxation, Refinement of Jacobi, Refinement of Jacobi Over- Relaxation.

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5078 Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship and Insilco Docking of Substituted 1,3,4-Oxadiazole Derivatives as Potential Glucosamine-6-Phosphate Synthase Inhibitors

Authors: Suman Bala, Sunil Kamboj, Vipin Saini

Abstract:

Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) analysis has been developed to relate antifungal activity of novel substituted 1,3,4-oxadiazole against Candida albicans and Aspergillus niger using computer assisted multiple regression analysis. The study has shown the better relationship between antifungal activities with respect to various descriptors established by multiple regression analysis. The analysis has shown statistically significant correlation with R2 values 0.932 and 0.782 against Candida albicans and Aspergillus niger respectively. These derivatives were further subjected to molecular docking studies to investigate the interactions between the target compounds and amino acid residues present in the active site of glucosamine-6-phosphate synthase. All the synthesized compounds have better docking score as compared to standard fluconazole. Our results could be used for the further design as well as development of optimal and potential antifungal agents.

Keywords: 1, 3, 4-Oxadiazole, QSAR, Multiple linear regression, Docking, Glucosamine-6-Phosphate Synthase.

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5077 Block Homotopy Perturbation Method for Solving Fuzzy Linear Systems

Authors: Shu-Xin Miao

Abstract:

In this paper, we present an efficient numerical algorithm, namely block homotopy perturbation method, for solving fuzzy linear systems based on homotopy perturbation method. Some numerical examples are given to show the efficiency of the algorithm.

Keywords: Homotopy perturbation method, fuzzy linear systems, block linear system, fuzzy solution, embedding parameter.

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5076 Assessment of Landfill Pollution Load on Hydroecosystem by Use of Heavy Metal Bioaccumulation Data in Fish

Authors: Gintarė Sauliutė, Gintaras Svecevičius

Abstract:

Landfill leachates contain a number of persistent pollutants, including heavy metals. They have the ability to spread in ecosystems and accumulate in fish which most of them are classified as top-consumers of trophic chains. Fish are freely swimming organisms; but perhaps, due to their species-specific ecological and behavioral properties, they often prefer the most suitable biotopes and therefore, did not avoid harmful substances or environments. That is why it is necessary to evaluate the persistent pollutant dispersion in hydroecosystem using fish tissue metal concentration. In hydroecosystems of hybrid type (e.g. river-pond-river) the distance from the pollution source could be a perfect indicator of such a kind of metal distribution. The studies were carried out in the Kairiai landfill neighboring hybrid-type ecosystem which is located 5 km east of the Šiauliai City. Fish tissue (gills, liver, and muscle) metal concentration measurements were performed on two types of ecologically-different fishes according to their feeding characteristics: benthophagous (Gibel carp, roach) and predatory (Northern pike, perch). A number of mathematical models (linear, non-linear, using log and other transformations) have been applied in order to identify the most satisfactorily description of the interdependence between fish tissue metal concentration and the distance from the pollution source. However, the only one log-multiple regression model revealed the pattern that the distance from the pollution source is closely and positively correlated with metal concentration in all predatory fish tissues studied (gills, liver, and muscle).

Keywords: Bioaccumulation in fish, heavy metals, hydroecosystem, landfill leachate, mathematical model.

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5075 A Comparison of Adaline and MLP Neural Network based Predictors in SIR Estimation in Mobile DS/CDMA Systems

Authors: Nahid Ardalani, Ahmadreza Khoogar, H. Roohi

Abstract:

In this paper we compare the response of linear and nonlinear neural network-based prediction schemes in prediction of received Signal-to-Interference Power Ratio (SIR) in Direct Sequence Code Division Multiple Access (DS/CDMA) systems. The nonlinear predictor is Multilayer Perceptron MLP and the linear predictor is an Adaptive Linear (Adaline) predictor. We solve the problem of complexity by using the Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE) principle to select the optimal predictors. The optimized Adaline predictor is compared to optimized MLP by employing noisy Rayleigh fading signals with 1.8 GHZ carrier frequency in an urban environment. The results show that the Adaline predictor can estimates SIR with the same error as MLP when the user has the velocity of 5 km/h and 60 km/h but by increasing the velocity up-to 120 km/h the mean squared error of MLP is two times more than Adaline predictor. This makes the Adaline predictor (with lower complexity) more suitable than MLP for closed-loop power control where efficient and accurate identification of the time-varying inverse dynamics of the multi path fading channel is required.

Keywords: Power control, neural networks, DS/CDMA mobilecommunication systems.

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5074 Determining of Stage-Discharge Relationship for Meandering Compound Channels Using M5 Decision Tree Model

Authors: Mehdi Kheradmand, Mehdi Azhdary Moghaddam, Abdolreza Zahiri, Khalil Ghorbani

Abstract:

In modeling phenomena, the presence of local conditions may cause the use of a general relation not to produce good results and thus fail to demonstrate local changes. If possible, identifying homogenous limits and providing simple linear relations for each of these limits will increase the accuracy of models. Accordingly, the models are divided into simpler and smaller problems to solve complicated problems, and the obtained answers will be combined. This simple idea can be applied to decision tree models. For this aim, the input data values are divided into several sub-intervals or sub-regions, and an appropriate model is extracted for an appropriate model or equation. This research proposes the M5 decision tree method as a solution to accurately compute the flow discharge in meandering compound channels.

Keywords: Stage-discharge relationship, decision tree, M5 decision tree model, meandering compound channels.

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5073 Artificial Neural Network based Modeling of Evaporation Losses in Reservoirs

Authors: Surinder Deswal, Mahesh Pal

Abstract:

An Artificial Neural Network based modeling technique has been used to study the influence of different combinations of meteorological parameters on evaporation from a reservoir. The data set used is taken from an earlier reported study. Several input combination were tried so as to find out the importance of different input parameters in predicting the evaporation. The prediction accuracy of Artificial Neural Network has also been compared with the accuracy of linear regression for predicting evaporation. The comparison demonstrated superior performance of Artificial Neural Network over linear regression approach. The findings of the study also revealed the requirement of all input parameters considered together, instead of individual parameters taken one at a time as reported in earlier studies, in predicting the evaporation. The highest correlation coefficient (0.960) along with lowest root mean square error (0.865) was obtained with the input combination of air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and mean relative humidity. A graph between the actual and predicted values of evaporation suggests that most of the values lie within a scatter of ±15% with all input parameters. The findings of this study suggest the usefulness of ANN technique in predicting the evaporation losses from reservoirs.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, evaporation losses, multiple linear regression, modeling.

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5072 An Analysis of Classification of Imbalanced Datasets by Using Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique

Authors: Ghada A. Alfattni

Abstract:

Analysing unbalanced datasets is one of the challenges that practitioners in machine learning field face. However, many researches have been carried out to determine the effectiveness of the use of the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) to address this issue. The aim of this study was therefore to compare the effectiveness of the SMOTE over different models on unbalanced datasets. Three classification models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine and Nearest Neighbour) were tested with multiple datasets, then the same datasets were oversampled by using SMOTE and applied again to the three models to compare the differences in the performances. Results of experiments show that the highest number of nearest neighbours gives lower values of error rates. 

Keywords: Imbalanced datasets, SMOTE, machine learning, logistic regression, support vector machine, nearest neighbour.

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5071 A Degraded Practical MIMOME Channel: Issues Insecret Data Communications

Authors: Mohammad Rakibul Islam

Abstract:

In this paper, a Gaussian multiple input multiple output multiple eavesdropper (MIMOME) channel is considered where a transmitter communicates to a receiver in the presence of an eavesdropper. We present a technique for determining the secrecy capacity of the multiple input multiple output (MIMO) channel under Gaussian noise. We transform the degraded MIMOME channel into multiple single input multiple output (SIMO) Gaussian wire-tap channels and then use scalar approach to convert it into two equivalent multiple input single output (MISO) channels. The secrecy capacity model is then developed for the condition where the channel state information (CSI) for main channel only is known to the transmitter. The results show that the secret communication is possible when the eavesdropper channel noise is greater than a cutoff noise level. The outage probability is also analyzed of secrecy capacity is also analyzed. The effect of fading and outage probability is also analyzed.

Keywords: Secrecy capacity, MIMO, wiretap channel, covariance matrix, fading.

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5070 An Iterative Method for Quaternionic Linear Equations

Authors: Bin Yu, Minghui Wang, Juntao Zhang

Abstract:

By the real representation of the quaternionic matrix, an iterative method for quaternionic linear equations Ax = b is proposed. Then the convergence conditions are obtained. At last, a numerical example is given to illustrate the efficiency of this method.

Keywords: Quaternionic linear equations, Real representation, Iterative algorithm.

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5069 FIR Filter Design via Linear Complementarity Problem, Messy Genetic Algorithm, and Ising Messy Genetic Algorithm

Authors: A.M. Al-Fahed Nuseirat, R. Abu-Zitar

Abstract:

In this paper the design of maximally flat linear phase finite impulse response (FIR) filters is considered. The problem is handled with totally two different approaches. The first one is completely deterministic numerical approach where the problem is formulated as a Linear Complementarity Problem (LCP). The other one is based on a combination of Markov Random Fields (MRF's) approach with messy genetic algorithm (MGA). Markov Random Fields (MRFs) are a class of probabilistic models that have been applied for many years to the analysis of visual patterns or textures. Our objective is to establish MRFs as an interesting approach to modeling messy genetic algorithms. We establish a theoretical result that every genetic algorithm problem can be characterized in terms of a MRF model. This allows us to construct an explicit probabilistic model of the MGA fitness function and introduce the Ising MGA. Experimentations done with Ising MGA are less costly than those done with standard MGA since much less computations are involved. The least computations of all is for the LCP. Results of the LCP, random search, random seeded search, MGA, and Ising MGA are discussed.

Keywords: Filter design, FIR digital filters, LCP, Ising model, MGA, Ising MGA.

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5068 A Linear Use Case Based Software Cost Estimation Model

Authors: Hasan.O. Farahneh, Ayman A. Issa

Abstract:

Software development is moving towards agility with use cases and scenarios being used for requirements stories. Estimates of software costs are becoming even more important than before as effects of delays is much larger in successive short releases context of agile development. Thus, this paper reports on the development of new linear use case based software cost estimation model applicable in the very early stages of software development being based on simple metric. Evaluation showed that accuracy of estimates varies between 43% and 55% of actual effort of historical test projects. These results outperformed those of wellknown models when applied in the same context. Further work is being carried out to improve the performance of the proposed model when considering the effect of non-functional requirements.

Keywords: Metrics, Software Cost Estimation, Use Cases

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5067 Parallel Particle Swarm Optimization Optimized LDI Controller with Lyapunov Stability Criterion for Nonlinear Structural Systems

Authors: P.-W. Tsai, W.-L. Hong, C.-W. Chen, C.-Y. Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a neural-network (NN) based approach to represent a nonlinear Tagagi-Sugeno (T-S) system. A linear differential inclusion (LDI) state-space representation is utilized to deal with the NN models. Taking advantage of the LDI representation, the stability conditions and controller design are derived for a class of nonlinear structural systems. Moreover, the concept of utilizing the Parallel Particle Swarm Optimization (PPSO) algorithm to solve the common P matrix under the stability criteria is given in this paper.

Keywords: Lyapunov Stability, Parallel Particle Swarm Optimization, Linear Differential Inclusion, Artificial Intelligence.

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5066 Analysis of Partially Shaded PV Modules Using Piecewise Linear Parallel Branches Model

Authors: Yaw-Juen Wang, Po-Chun Hsu

Abstract:

This paper presents an equivalent circuit model based on piecewise linear parallel branches (PLPB) to study solar cell modules which are partially shaded. The PLPB model can easily be used in circuit simulation software such as the ElectroMagnetic Transients Program (EMTP). This PLPB model allows the user to simulate several different configurations of solar cells, the influence of partial shadowing on a single or multiple cells, the influence of the number of solar cells protected by a bypass diode and the effect of the cell connection configuration on partial shadowing.

Keywords: Cell Connection Configurations, EMTP, Equivalent Circuit, Partial Shading, Photovoltaic Module

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5065 A Method for Quality Inspection of Motors by Detecting Abnormal Sound

Authors: Tadatsugu Kitamoto

Abstract:

Recently, a quality of motors is inspected by human ears. In this paper, I propose two systems using a method of speech recognition for automation of the inspection. The first system is based on a method of linear processing which uses K-means and Nearest Neighbor method, and the second is based on a method of non-linear processing which uses neural networks. I used motor sounds in these systems, and I successfully recognize 86.67% of motor sounds in the linear processing system and 97.78% in the non-linear processing system.

Keywords: Acoustical diagnosis, Neural networks, K-means, Short-time Fourier transformation

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5064 Numerical Solving of General Fuzzy Linear Systems by Huang's Method

Authors: S. J. Hosseini Ghoncheh, M. Paripour

Abstract:

In this paper the Huang-s method for solving a m×n fuzzy linear system when, m≤ n, is considered. The method in detail is discussed and illustrated by solving some numerical examples.

Keywords: Fuzzy number, fuzzy linear systems, Huang's method.

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5063 Frequency Response of Complex Systems with Localized Nonlinearities

Authors: E. Menga, S. Hernandez

Abstract:

Finite Element Models (FEMs) are widely used in order to study and predict the dynamic properties of structures and usually, the prediction can be obtained with much more accuracy in the case of a single component than in the case of assemblies. Especially for structural dynamics studies, in the low and middle frequency range, most complex FEMs can be seen as assemblies made by linear components joined together at interfaces. From a modelling and computational point of view, these types of joints can be seen as localized sources of stiffness and damping and can be modelled as lumped spring/damper elements, most of time, characterized by nonlinear constitutive laws. On the other side, most of FE programs are able to run nonlinear analysis in time-domain. They treat the whole structure as nonlinear, even if there is one nonlinear degree of freedom (DOF) out of thousands of linear ones, making the analysis unnecessarily expensive from a computational point of view. In this work, a methodology in order to obtain the nonlinear frequency response of structures, whose nonlinearities can be considered as localized sources, is presented. The work extends the well-known Structural Dynamic Modification Method (SDMM) to a nonlinear set of modifications, and allows getting the Nonlinear Frequency Response Functions (NLFRFs), through an ‘updating’ process of the Linear Frequency Response Functions (LFRFs). A brief summary of the analytical concepts is given, starting from the linear formulation and understanding what the implications of the nonlinear one, are. The response of the system is formulated in both: time and frequency domain. First the Modal Database is extracted and the linear response is calculated. Secondly the nonlinear response is obtained thru the NL SDMM, by updating the underlying linear behavior of the system. The methodology, implemented in MATLAB, has been successfully applied to estimate the nonlinear frequency response of two systems. The first one is a two DOFs spring-mass-damper system, and the second example takes into account a full aircraft FE Model. In spite of the different levels of complexity, both examples show the reliability and effectiveness of the method. The results highlight a feasible and robust procedure, which allows a quick estimation of the effect of localized nonlinearities on the dynamic behavior. The method is particularly powerful when most of the FE Model can be considered as acting linearly and the nonlinear behavior is restricted to few degrees of freedom. The procedure is very attractive from a computational point of view because the FEM needs to be run just once, which allows faster nonlinear sensitivity analysis and easier implementation of optimization procedures for the calibration of nonlinear models.

Keywords: Frequency response, nonlinear dynamics, structural dynamic modification, softening effect, rubber.

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5062 Packing and Covering Radii of Linear Error-Block Codes

Authors: Rabiˆı DARITI, El Mamoun SOUIDI

Abstract:

Linear error-block codes are a natural generalization of linear error correcting codes. The purpose of this paper is to generalize some results on the packing and the covering radii to the error-block case. We study their properties when a code undergoes some specific modifications and combinations with another code. We give a few bounds on the packing and the covering radii of these codes.

Keywords: Linear error-block codes, π-distance, Correction capacity, Packing radius, Covering radius.

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5061 Blood Glucose Measurement and Analysis: Methodology

Authors: I. M. Abd Rahim, H. Abdul Rahim, R. Ghazali

Abstract:

There is numerous non-invasive blood glucose measurement technique developed by researchers, and near infrared (NIR) is the potential technique nowadays. However, there are some disagreements on the optimal wavelength range that is suitable to be used as the reference of the glucose substance in the blood. This paper focuses on the experimental data collection technique and also the analysis method used to analyze the data gained from the experiment. The selection of suitable linear and non-linear model structure is essential in prediction system, as the system developed need to be conceivably accurate.

Keywords: Invasive, linear, near-infrared (Nir), non-invasive, non-linear, prediction system.

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5060 Lean Models Classification: Towards a Holistic View

Authors: Y. Tiamaz, N. Souissi

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present a classification of Lean models which aims to capture all the concepts related to this approach and thus facilitate its implementation. This classification allows the identification of the most relevant models according to several dimensions. From this perspective, we present a review and an analysis of Lean models literature and we propose dimensions for the classification of the current proposals while respecting among others the axes of the Lean approach, the maturity of the models as well as their application domains. This classification allowed us to conclude that researchers essentially consider the Lean approach as a toolbox also they design their models to solve problems related to a specific environment. Since Lean approach is no longer intended only for the automotive sector where it was invented, but to all fields (IT, Hospital, ...), we consider that this approach requires a generic model that is capable of being implemented in all areas.

Keywords: Lean approach, lean models, classification, dimensions, holistic view.

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5059 Sensitivity Analysis for Direction of Arrival Estimation Using Capon and Music Algorithms in Mobile Radio Environment

Authors: Mustafa Abdalla, Khaled A. Madi, Rajab Farhat

Abstract:

An array antenna system with innovative signal processing can improve the resolution of a source direction of arrival (DoA) estimation. High resolution techniques take the advantage of array antenna structures to better process the incoming waves. They also have the capability to identify the direction of multiple targets. This paper investigates performance of the DOA estimation algorithm namely; Capon and MUSIC on the uniform linear array (ULA). The simulation results show that in Capon and MUSIC algorithm the resolution of the DOA techniques improves as number of snapshots, number of array elements, signal-to-noise ratio and separation angle between the two sources θ increases.

Keywords: Antenna array, Capon, MUSIC, Direction-of-arrival estimation, signal processing, uniform linear arrays.

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5058 The Effect of Particle Porosity in Mixed Matrix Membrane Permeation Models

Authors: Z. Sadeghi, M. R. Omidkhah, M. E. Masoomi

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to examine gas transport behavior of mixed matrix membranes (MMMs) combined with porous particles. Main existing models are categorized in two main groups; two-phase (ideal contact) and three-phase (non-ideal contact). A new coefficient, J, was obtained to express equations for estimating effect of the particle porosity in two-phase and three-phase models. Modified models evaluates with existing models and experimental data using Matlab software. Comparison of gas permeability of proposed modified models with existing models in different MMMs shows a better prediction of gas permeability in MMMs.

Keywords: Mixed Matrix Membrane, Permeation Models, Porous particles, Porosity.

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5057 Modeling and Simulation Methods Using MATLAB/Simulink

Authors: Jamuna Konda, Umamaheswara Reddy Karumuri, Sriramya Muthugi, Varun Pishati, Ravi Shakya,

Abstract:

This paper investigates the challenges involved in mathematical modeling of plant simulation models ensuring the performance of the plant models much closer to the real time physical model. The paper includes the analysis performed and investigation on different methods of modeling, design and development for plant model. Issues which impact the design time, model accuracy as real time model, tool dependence are analyzed. The real time hardware plant would be a combination of multiple physical models. It is more challenging to test the complete system with all possible test scenarios. There are possibilities of failure or damage of the system due to any unwanted test execution on real time.

Keywords: Model Based Design, MATLAB, Simulink, Stateflow, plant model, real time model, real-time workshop, target language compiler.

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5056 The Influence of Interest, Beliefs, and Identity with Mathematics on Achievement

Authors: Asma Alzahrani, Elizabeth Stojanovski

Abstract:

This study investigated factors that influence mathematics achievement based on a sample of ninth-grade students (N  =  21,444) from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS09). Key aspects studied included efficacy in mathematics, interest and enjoyment of mathematics, identity with mathematics and future utility beliefs and how these influence mathematics achievement. The predictability of mathematics achievement based on these factors was assessed using correlation coefficients and multiple linear regression. Spearman rank correlations and multiple regression analyses indicated positive and statistically significant relationships between the explanatory variables: mathematics efficacy, identity with mathematics, interest in and future utility beliefs with the response variable, achievement in mathematics.

Keywords: Mathematics achievement, math efficacy, mathematics interest, identity.

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5055 Modeling of Reinforcement in Concrete Beams Using Machine Learning Tools

Authors: Yogesh Aggarwal

Abstract:

The paper discusses the results obtained to predict reinforcement in singly reinforced beam using Neural Net (NN), Support Vector Machines (SVM-s) and Tree Based Models. Major advantage of SVM-s over NN is of minimizing a bound on the generalization error of model rather than minimizing a bound on mean square error over the data set as done in NN. Tree Based approach divides the problem into a small number of sub problems to reach at a conclusion. Number of data was created for different parameters of beam to calculate the reinforcement using limit state method for creation of models and validation. The results from this study suggest a remarkably good performance of tree based and SVM-s models. Further, this study found that these two techniques work well and even better than Neural Network methods. A comparison of predicted values with actual values suggests a very good correlation coefficient with all four techniques.

Keywords: Linear Regression, M5 Model Tree, Neural Network, Support Vector Machines.

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5054 Constructing a Bayesian Network for Solar Energy in Egypt Using Life Cycle Analysis and Machine Learning Algorithms

Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

Abstract:

In an era where machines run and shape our world, the need for a stable, non-ending source of energy emerges. In this study, the focus was on the solar energy in Egypt as a renewable source, the most important factors that could affect the solar energy’s market share throughout its life cycle production were analyzed and filtered, the relationships between them were derived before structuring a Bayesian network. Also, forecasted models were built for multiple factors to predict the states in Egypt by 2035, based on historical data and patterns, to be used as the nodes’ states in the network. 37 factors were found to might have an impact on the use of solar energy and then were deducted to 12 factors that were chosen to be the most effective to the solar energy’s life cycle in Egypt, based on surveying experts and data analysis, some of the factors were found to be recurring in multiple stages. The presented Bayesian network could be used later for scenario and decision analysis of using solar energy in Egypt, as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed.

Keywords: ARIMA, auto correlation, Bayesian network, forecasting models, life cycle, partial correlation, renewable energy, SARIMA, solar energy.

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5053 Time Series Regression with Meta-Clusters

Authors: Monika Chuchro

Abstract:

This paper presents a preliminary attempt to apply classification of time series using meta-clusters in order to improve the quality of regression models. In this case, clustering was performed as a method to obtain subgroups of time series data with normal distribution from the inflow into wastewater treatment plant data, composed of several groups differing by mean value. Two simple algorithms, K-mean and EM, were chosen as a clustering method. The Rand index was used to measure the similarity. After simple meta-clustering, a regression model was performed for each subgroups. The final model was a sum of the subgroups models. The quality of the obtained model was compared with the regression model made using the same explanatory variables, but with no clustering of data. Results were compared using determination coefficient (R2), measure of prediction accuracy- mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and comparison on a linear chart. Preliminary results allow us to foresee the potential of the presented technique.

Keywords: Clustering, Data analysis, Data mining, Predictive models.

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