Search results for: life prediction

Authors: Leonardo Juan Ramírez López, Javier Oswaldo Rodriguez Velasquez

Abstract:

We have designed a Holter that measures the heart´s activity for over 24 hours, implemented a prediction methodology, and generate alarms as well as indicators to patients and treating physicians. Various diagnostic advances have been developed in clinical cardiology thanks to Holter implementation; however, their interpretation has largely been conditioned to clinical analysis and measurements adjusted to diverse population characteristics, thus turning it into a subjective examination. This, however, requires vast population studies to be validated that, in turn, have not achieved the ultimate goal: mortality prediction. Given this context, our Insight Research Group developed a mathematical methodology that assesses cardiac dynamics through entropy and probability, creating a numerical and geometrical attractor which allows quantifying the normalcy of chronic and acute disease as well as the evolution between such states, and our Tigum Research Group developed a holter device with 12 channels and advanced computer software. This has been shown in different contexts with 100% sensitivity and specificity results.

Keywords: Entropy, mathematical, prediction, cardiac, holter, attractor.

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Authors: Nebi Gedik

Abstract:

Regardless of age or gender, cardiovascular illnesses are a serious health concern because of things like poor eating habits, stress, a sedentary lifestyle, hard work schedules, alcohol use, and weight. It tends to happen suddenly and has a high rate of recurrence. Machine learning models can be implemented to assist healthcare systems in the accurate detection and diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients. Improved heart failure prediction is one of the primary goals of researchers using the heart disease dataset. The purpose of this study is to identify the feature or features that offer the best classification prediction for CVD detection. The support vector machine classifier is used to compare each feature's performance. It has been determined which feature produces the best results.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease, feature extraction, supervised learning, support vector machine.

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Authors: Wei-hua Ai, Wei Yan, Xiang Li

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Data compression is used operationally to reduce bandwidth and storage requirements. An efficient method for achieving lossless weather radar data compression is presented. The characteristics of the data are taken into account and the optical linear prediction is used for the PPI images in the weather radar data in the proposed method. The next PPI image is identical to the current one and a dramatic reduction in source entropy is achieved by using the prediction algorithm. Some lossless compression methods are used to compress the predicted data. Experimental results show that for the weather radar data, the method proposed in this paper outperforms the other methods.

Keywords: Lossless compression, weather radar data, optical linear prediction, PPI image

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Authors: Jamalizadeh, M.R., Moghaddamnia, A., Piri, J., Arbabi, V., Homayounifar, M., Shahryari, A.

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Dust storms are one of the most costly and destructive events in many desert regions. They can cause massive damages both in natural environments and human lives. This paper is aimed at presenting a preliminary study on dust storms, as a major natural hazard in arid and semi-arid regions. As a case study, dust storm events occurred in Zabol city located in Sistan Region of Iran was analyzed to diagnose and predict dust storms. The identification and prediction of dust storm events could have significant impacts on damages reduction. Present models for this purpose are complicated and not appropriate for many areas with poor-data environments. The present study explores Gamma test for identifying inputs of ANNs model, for dust storm prediction. Results indicate that more attempts must be carried out concerning dust storms identification and segregate between various dust storm types.

Keywords: Dust Storm, Gamma Test, Prediction, ANNs, Zabol.

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Authors: Indra Budi, Rizal Fathoni Aji, Agus Widodo

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Prediction of future research topics by using time series analysis either statistical or machine learning has been conducted previously by several researchers. Several methods have been proposed to combine the forecasting results into single forecast. These methods use fixed combination of individual forecast to get the final forecast result. In this paper, quite different approach is employed to select the forecasting methods, in which every point to forecast is calculated by using the best methods used by similar validation dataset. The dataset used in the experiment is time series derived from research report in Garuda, which is an online sites belongs to the Ministry of Education in Indonesia, over the past 20 years. The experimental result demonstrates that the proposed method may perform better compared to the fix combination of predictors. In addition, based on the prediction result, we can forecast emerging research topics for the next few years.

Keywords: Combination, emerging topics, ensemble, forecasting, machine learning, prediction, research topics, similarity measure, time series.

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

Abstract:

The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.

Keywords: Decision support systems, frost protection, fruit, time-series prediction, weather modeling

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Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

Abstract:

Useful lifetime evaluation of railpads were very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of rail pads. In this study, we performed properties and accelerated heat aging tests of rail pads considering degradation factors and all environmental conditions including operation, and then derived a lifetime prediction equation according to changes in hardness, thickness, and static spring constants in the Arrhenius plot to establish how to estimate the aging of rail pads. With the useful lifetime prediction equation, the lifetime of e-clip pads was 2.5 years when the change in hardness was 10% at 25°C; and that of f-clip pads was 1.7 years. When the change in thickness was 10%, the lifetime of e-clip pads and f-clip pads is 2.6 years respectively. The results obtained in this study to estimate the useful lifetime of rail pads for high speed trains can be used for determining the maintenance and replacement schedule for rail pads.

Keywords: Rail pads, accelerated test, Arrhenius plot, useful lifetime prediction.

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Authors: S. Wiriyarattanakun, A. Ruengsiriwatanakun, S. Noimanee

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The drainage Estimating is an important factor in dam management. In this paper, we use fuzzy support vector regression (FSVR) to predict the drainage of the Sirikrit Dam at Uttaradit province, Thailand. The results show that the FSVR is a suitable method in drainage estimating.

Keywords: Drainage Estimation, Prediction.

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Authors: Anne-Lena Kampen, Øivind Kure

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Machine learning (ML) can be implemented in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) as a central solution or distributed solution where the ML is embedded in the nodes. Embedding improves privacy and may reduce prediction delay. In addition, the number of transmissions is reduced. However, quality factors such as prediction accuracy, fault detection efficiency and coordinated control of the overall system suffer. Here, we discuss and highlight the trade-offs that should be considered when choosing between embedding and centralized ML, especially for multihop networks. In addition, we present estimations that demonstrate the energy trade-offs between embedded and centralized ML. Although the total network energy consumption is lower with central prediction, it makes the network more prone for partitioning due to the high forwarding load on the one-hop nodes. Moreover, the continuous improvements in the number of operations per joule for embedded devices will move the energy balance toward embedded prediction.

Keywords: Central ML, embedded machine learning, energy consumption, local ML, Wireless Sensor Networks, WSN.

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Authors: Edwaldo R. B. Monteiro, Patricia D. M. Plentz, Edson R. De Pieri

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Mobile robotics is gaining an increasingly important role in modern society. Several potentially dangerous or laborious tasks for human are assigned to mobile robots, which are increasingly capable. Many of these tasks need to be performed within a specified period, i.e, meet a deadline. Missing the deadline can result in financial and/or material losses. Mechanisms for predicting the missing of deadlines are fundamental because corrective actions can be taken to avoid or minimize the losses resulting from missing the deadline. In this work we propose a simple but reliable deadline missing prediction mechanism for mobile robots through the use of historical data and we use the Pioneer 3-DX robot for experiments and simulations, one of the most popular robots in academia.

Keywords: Deadline missing, historical data, mobile robots, prediction mechanism.

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Authors: Jiakai Li, Gursel Serpen, Steven Selman, Matt Franchetti, Mike Riesen, Cynthia Schneider

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This paper presents the development of a Bayesian belief network classifier for prediction of graft status and survival period in renal transplantation using the patient profile information prior to the transplantation. The objective was to explore feasibility of developing a decision making tool for identifying the most suitable recipient among the candidate pool members. The dataset was compiled from the University of Toledo Medical Center Hospital patients as reported to the United Network Organ Sharing, and had 1228 patient records for the period covering 1987 through 2009. The Bayes net classifiers were developed using the Weka machine learning software workbench. Two separate classifiers were induced from the data set, one to predict the status of the graft as either failed or living, and a second classifier to predict the graft survival period. The classifier for graft status prediction performed very well with a prediction accuracy of 97.8% and true positive values of 0.967 and 0.988 for the living and failed classes, respectively. The second classifier to predict the graft survival period yielded a prediction accuracy of 68.2% and a true positive rate of 0.85 for the class representing those instances with kidneys failing during the first year following transplantation. Simulation results indicated that it is feasible to develop a successful Bayesian belief network classifier for prediction of graft status, but not the graft survival period, using the information in UNOS database.

Keywords: Bayesian network classifier, renal transplantation, graft survival period, United Network for Organ Sharing

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Authors: Joseph C. Chen, Venkata Mohan Kudapa

Abstract:

Development of two real-time surface roughness (Ra) prediction systems for milling operations was attempted. The systems used not only cutting parameters, such as feed rate and spindle speed, but also the cutting current generated and corrected by a clamp type energy sensor. Two different approaches were developed. First, a fuzzy inference system (FIS), in which the fuzzy logic rules are generated by experts in the milling processes, was used to conduct prediction modeling using current cutting data. Second, a neuro-fuzzy system (ANFIS) was explored. Neuro-fuzzy systems are adaptive techniques in which data are collected on the network, processed, and rules are generated by the system. The inference system then uses these rules to predict Ra as the output. Experimental results showed that the parameters of spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut, and input current variation could predict Ra. These two systems enable the prediction of Ra during the milling operation with an average of 91.83% and 94.48% accuracy by FIS and ANFIS systems, respectively. Statistically, the ANFIS system provided better prediction accuracy than that of the FIS system.

Keywords: Surface roughness, input current, fuzzy logic, neuro-fuzzy, milling operations.

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Authors: Yudhajit Datta

Abstract:

Behavioral aspects of experience such as will power are rarely subjected to quantitative study owing to the numerous complexities involved. Will is a phenomenon that has puzzled humanity for a long time. It is a belief that will power of an individual affects the success achieved by them in life. It is also thought that a person endowed with great will power can overcome even the most crippling setbacks in life while a person with a weak will cannot make the most of life even the greatest assets. This study is an attempt to subject the phenomena of will to the test of an artificial neural network through a computational model. The claim being tested is that will power of an individual largely determines success achieved in life. It is proposed that data pertaining to success of individuals be obtained from an experiment and the phenomenon of will be incorporated into the model, through data generated recursively using a relation between will and success characteristic to the model. An artificial neural network trained using part of the data, could subsequently be used to make predictions regarding data points in the rest of the model. The procedure would be tried for different models and the model where the networks predictions are found to be in greatest agreement with the data would be selected; and used for studying the relation between success and will.

Keywords: Will Power, Success, ANN, Time Series Prediction, Sliding Window, Computational Model, Behavioral Phenomena.

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Authors: Belkacem Selma, Boumediene Selma, Samira Chouraqui, Hanifi Missoum, Tourkia Guerzou

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Natural disasters have occurred and will continue to cause human and material damage. Therefore, the idea of "preventing" natural disasters will never be possible. However, their prediction is possible with the advancement of technology. Even if natural disasters are effectively inevitable, their consequences may be partly controlled. The rapid growth and progress of artificial intelligence (AI) had a major impact on the prediction of natural disasters and risk assessment which are necessary for effective disaster reduction. Earthquake prediction to prevent the loss of human lives and even property damage is an important factor; that, is why it is crucial to develop techniques for predicting this natural disaster. This study aims to analyze the ability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict earthquakes that occur in a given area. The used data describe the problem of high energy (higher than 104 J) seismic bumps forecasting in a coal mine using two long walls as an example. For this purpose, seismic bumps data obtained from mines have been analyzed. The results obtained show that the ANN is able to predict earthquake parameters with  high accuracy; the classification accuracy through neural networks is more than 94%, and the models developed are efficient and robust and depend only weakly on the initial database.

Keywords: Earthquake prediction, artificial intelligence, AI, Artificial Neural Network, ANN, seismic bumps.

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Authors: Jeff Clarine, Chang-Shyh Peng, Daisy Sang

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Bioassay is the measurement of the potency of a chemical substance by its effect on a living animal or plant tissue. Bioassay data and chemical structures from pharmacokinetic and drug metabolism screening are mined from and housed in multiple databases. Bioassay prediction is calculated accordingly to determine further advancement. This paper proposes a four-step preprocessing of datasets for improving the bioassay predictions. The first step is instance selection in which dataset is categorized into training, testing, and validation sets. The second step is discretization that partitions the data in consideration of accuracy vs. precision. The third step is normalization where data are normalized between 0 and 1 for subsequent machine learning processing. The fourth step is feature selection where key chemical properties and attributes are generated. The streamlined results are then analyzed for the prediction of effectiveness by various machine learning algorithms including Pipeline Pilot, R, Weka, and Excel. Experiments and evaluations reveal the effectiveness of various combination of preprocessing steps and machine learning algorithms in more consistent and accurate prediction.

Keywords: Bioassay, machine learning, preprocessing, virtual screen.

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Authors: Mansoureh Naderipour, Susan Bastani, Mohammad Fazel Zarandi

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Predicting links that may occur in the future and missing links in social networks is an attractive problem in social network analysis. Granular computing can help us to model the relationships between human-based system and social sciences in this field. In this paper, we present a model based on granular computing approach and Type-2 fuzzy logic to predict links regarding nodes’ activity and the relationship between two nodes. Our model is tested on collaboration networks. It is found that the accuracy of prediction is significantly higher than the Type-1 fuzzy and crisp approach.

Keywords: Social Network, link prediction, granular computing, Type-2 fuzzy sets.

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Authors: Myung Jin Kim, Hyun Bae Jin, Wui Jun Chung

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In this study, to accurately predict cavitation of a centrifugal pump, numerical analysis was compared with experimental results modeled on a small industrial centrifugal pump. In this study, numerical analysis was compared with experimental results modeled on a small industrial centrifugal pump for reliable prediction on cavitation of a centrifugal pump. To improve validity of the numerical analysis, transient analysis was conducted on the calculated domain of full-type geometry, such as an experimental apparatus. The numerical analysis from the results was considered to be a reliable prediction of cavitaion.

Keywords: Centrifugal Pump, Cavitation, NPSH, CFD.

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Authors: Wei Jun-xia, Yuan Guang-wei, Yang Shu-lin, Shen Wei-dong

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In order to make conventional implicit algorithm to be applicable in large scale parallel computers , an interface prediction and correction of discontinuous finite element method is presented to solve time-dependent neutron transport equations under 2-D cylindrical geometry. Domain decomposition is adopted in the computational domain.The numerical experiments show that our parallel algorithm with explicit prediction and implicit correction has good precision, parallelism and simplicity. Especially, it can reach perfect speedup even on hundreds of processors for large-scale problems.

Keywords: Transport Equation, Discontinuous Finite Element, Domain Decomposition, Interface Prediction And Correction

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Authors: Guo Xiuhua, Sun Tao, Wu Haifeng, He Wen, Liang Zhigang, Zhang Mengxia, Guo Aimin, Wang Wei

Abstract:

Purpose: To explore the use of Curvelet transform to extract texture features of pulmonary nodules in CT image and support vector machine to establish prediction model of small solitary pulmonary nodules in order to promote the ratio of detection and diagnosis of early-stage lung cancer. Methods: 2461 benign or malignant small solitary pulmonary nodules in CT image from 129 patients were collected. Fourteen Curvelet transform textural features were as parameters to establish support vector machine prediction model. Results: Compared with other methods, using 252 texture features as parameters to establish prediction model is more proper. And the classification consistency, sensitivity and specificity for the model are 81.5%, 93.8% and 38.0% respectively. Conclusion: Based on texture features extracted from Curvelet transform, support vector machine prediction model is sensitive to lung cancer, which can promote the rate of diagnosis for early-stage lung cancer to some extent.

Keywords: CT image, Curvelet transform, Small pulmonary nodules, Support vector machines, Texture extraction.

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Authors: Guoyuan Qi , Yskandar Hamam, Barend Jacobus van Wyk, Shengzhi Du

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The majority of existing predictors for time series are model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the identification of complex systems, usually involving system identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor (MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.

Keywords: Forecast, model-free predictor, prediction, time series

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Authors: J. Cheeneebash, K. B. Lallmamode, A. Gopaul

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Throughout this paper, a relatively new technique, the Tabu search variable selection model, is elaborated showing how it can be efficiently applied within the financial world whenever researchers come across the selection of a subset of variables from a whole set of descriptive variables under analysis. In the field of financial prediction, researchers often have to select a subset of variables from a larger set to solve different type of problems such as corporate bankruptcy prediction, personal bankruptcy prediction, mortgage, credit scoring and the Arbitrage Pricing Model (APM). Consequently, to demonstrate how the method operates and to illustrate its usefulness as well as its superiority compared to other commonly used methods, the Tabu search algorithm for variable selection is compared to two main alternative search procedures namely, the stepwise regression and the maximum R 2 improvement method. The Tabu search is then implemented in finance; where it attempts to predict corporate bankruptcy by selecting the most appropriate financial ratios and thus creating its own prediction score equation. In comparison to other methods, mostly the Altman Z-Score model, the Tabu search model produces a higher success rate in predicting correctly the failure of firms or the continuous running of existing entities.

Keywords: Predicting Bankruptcy, Tabu Search

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Authors: Nilubon Kurubanjerdjit, Nattakarn Iam-On, Ka-Lok Ng

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MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNA found in many different species. They play crucial roles in cancer such as biological processes of apoptosis and proliferation. The identification of microRNA-target genes can be an essential first step towards to reveal the role of microRNA in various cancer types. In this paper, we predict miRNA-target genes for lung cancer by integrating prediction scores from miRanda and PITA algorithms used as a feature vector of miRNA-target interaction. Then, machine-learning algorithms were implemented for making a final prediction. The approach developed in this study should be of value for future studies into understanding the role of miRNAs in molecular mechanisms enabling lung cancer formation.

Keywords: MicroRNA, miRNAs, lung cancer, machine learning, Naïve Bayes, SVM.

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Authors: Kumaresh Sarmah, Kandarpa Kumar Sarma

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Artificial Neural Network (ANN)s are best suited for prediction and optimization problems. Trained ANNs have found wide spread acceptance in several antenna design systems. Four parameters namely antenna radiation resistance, loss resistance, efficiency, and inductance can be used to design an antenna layout though there are several other parameters available. An ANN can be trained to provide the best and worst case precisions of an antenna design problem defined by these four parameters. This work describes the use of an ANN to generate the four mentioned parameters for a loop antenna for the specified frequency range. It also provides insights to the prediction of best and worst-case design problems observed in applications and thereby formulate a model for physical layout design of a loop antenna.

Keywords: MLP, ANN, parameter, prediction, optimization.

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Authors: Nebi Gedik

Abstract:

Heart disease threatens the lives of a great number of people every year around the world. Heart issues lead to many of all deaths; therefore, early diagnosis and treatment are critical. The diagnosis of heart disease is complicated due to several factors affecting health such as high blood pressure, raised cholesterol, an irregular pulse rhythm, and more. Artificial intelligence has the potential to assist in the early detection and treatment of diseases. Improving heart failure prediction is one of the primary goals of research on heart disease risk assessment. This study aims to determine the features that provide the most successful classification prediction in detecting cardiovascular disease. The performances of each feature are compared using the K-Nearest Neighbor machine learning method. The feature that gives the most successful performance has been identified.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease, feature extraction, supervised learning, k-NN.

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Authors: John Hadden, Ashutosh Tiwari, Rajkumar Roy, Dymitr Ruta

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The aim of this paper is to identify the most suitable model for churn prediction based on three different techniques. The paper identifies the variables that affect churn in reverence of customer complaints data and provides a comparative analysis of neural networks, regression trees and regression in their capabilities of predicting customer churn.

Keywords: Churn, Decision Trees, Neural Networks, Regression.

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Authors: Chun-Wei Tung, Chyn Liaw, Shinn-Jang Ho, Shinn-Ying Ho

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Protein subchloroplast locations are correlated with its functions. In contrast to the large amount of available protein sequences, the information of their locations and functions is less known. The experiment works for identification of protein locations and functions are costly and time consuming. The accurate prediction of protein subchloroplast locations can accelerate the study of functions of proteins in chloroplast. This study proposes a Random Forest based method, ChloroRF, to predict protein subchloroplast locations using interpretable physicochemical properties. In addition to high prediction accuracy, the ChloroRF is able to select important physicochemical properties. The important physicochemical properties are also analyzed to provide insights into the underlying mechanism.

Keywords: Chloroplast, Physicochemical properties, Proteinlocations, Random Forests.

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Authors: Tebogo Emma Makaba, Barnabas Ndlovu Gatsheni

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The cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria both located in the Gauteng province are separated by a distance of 58 km. The traffic queues on the Ben Schoeman freeway which connects these two cities can stretch for almost 1.5 km. Vehicle traffic congestion impacts negatively on the business and the commuter’s quality of life. The goal of this paper is to identify variables that influence the flow of traffic and to design a vehicle traffic prediction model, which will predict the traffic flow pattern in advance. The model will unable motorist to be able to make appropriate travel decisions ahead of time. The data used was collected by Mikro’s Traffic Monitoring (MTM). Multi-Layer perceptron (MLP) was used individually to construct the model and the MLP was also combined with Bagging ensemble method to training the data. The cross—validation method was used for evaluating the models. The results obtained from the techniques were compared using predictive and prediction costs. The cost was computed using combination of the loss matrix and the confusion matrix. The predicted models designed shows that the status of the traffic flow on the freeway can be predicted using the following parameters travel time, average speed, traffic volume and day of month. The implications of this work is that commuters will be able to spend less time travelling on the route and spend time with their families. The logistics industry will save more than twice what they are currently spending.

Keywords: Bagging ensemble methods, confusion matrix, multi-layer perceptron, vehicle traffic flow.

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Authors: S. X. Sun, Q. Wang

Abstract:

With the rapid development of industrialization, countries in different stages of development in the world have gradually begun to pay attention to the impact of air pollution on health and the environment. Air control in developed countries is an effective reference for air control in developing countries. Artificial intelligence and other technologies also play a positive role in the prediction of air pollution. By comparing the annual changes of pollution in London and Beijing, this paper concludes that the pollution in developed cities is relatively low and stable, while the pollution in Beijing is relatively heavy and unstable, but is clearly improving. In addition, by analyzing the changes of major pollutants in Beijing in the past eight years, it is concluded that all pollutants except O3 show a significant downward trend. In addition, all pollutants except O3 have certain correlation. For example, PM10 and PM2.5 have the greatest influence on air quality index (AQI). Python, which is commonly used by artificial intelligence, is used as the main software to establish two models, support vector machine (SVM) and linear regression. By comparing the two models under the same conditions, it is concluded that SVM has higher accuracy in pollution prediction. The results of this study provide valuable reference for pollution control and prediction in developing countries.

Keywords: Air pollution, particulate matter, AQI, correlation coefficient, air pollution prediction.

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo

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Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.

Keywords: Convective parameterization schemes, March-May 2013 rainfall season, spatial variation of parameterization schemes over Uganda, WRF model.

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Authors: Siti Nurhidayah Naqiah Abdull Rani, Herlina Abdul Rahim, Rashidah Ghazali, Noramli Abdul Razak

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Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has always been of great interest in the food and agriculture industries. The development of prediction models has facilitated the estimation process in recent years. In this study, 110 crude palm oil (CPO) samples were used to build a free fatty acid (FFA) prediction model. 60% of the collected data were used for training purposes and the remaining 40% used for testing. The visible peaks on the NIR spectrum were at 1725 nm and 1760 nm, indicating the existence of the first overtone of C-H bands. Principal component regression (PCR) was applied to the data in order to build this mathematical prediction model. The optimal number of principal components was 10. The results showed R2=0.7147 for the training set and R2=0.6404 for the testing set.

Keywords: Palm oil, fatty acid, NIRS, regression.

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