Search results for: interest rate risk

Authors: Anders Thorsèn, Behrooz Sangchoolie, Peter Folkesson, Ted Strandberg

Abstract:

As more parts of the power grid become connected to the internet, the risk of cyberattacks increases. To identify the cybersecurity threats and subsequently reduce vulnerabilities, the common practice is to carry out a cybersecurity risk assessment. For safety classified systems and products, there is also a need for safety risk assessments in addition to the cybersecurity risk assessment to identify and reduce safety risks. These two risk assessments are usually done separately, but since cybersecurity and functional safety are often related, a more comprehensive method covering both aspects is needed. Some work addressing this has been done for specific domains like the automotive domain, but more general methods suitable for, e.g., Intelligent Distributed Grids, are still missing. One such method from the automotive domain is the Security-Aware Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment (SAHARA) method that combines safety and cybersecurity risk assessments. This paper presents an approach where the SAHARA method has been modified to be more suitable for larger distributed systems. The adapted SAHARA method has a more general risk assessment approach than the original SAHARA. The proposed method has been successfully applied on two use cases of an intelligent distributed grid.

Keywords: Intelligent distribution grids, threat analysis, risk assessment, safety, cybersecurity.

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Authors: Prof. Chokri SLIM

Abstract:

A Novel fuzzy neural network combining with support vector learning mechanism called support-vector-based fuzzy neural networks (SVBFNN) is proposed. The SVBFNN combine the capability of minimizing the empirical risk (training error) and expected risk (testing error) of support vector learning in high dimensional data spaces and the efficient human-like reasoning of FNN.

Keywords: Neural network, fuzzy inference, machine learning, fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, support vector regression.

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Authors: Ehsan Bashiri

Abstract:

A 7-step method (with 25 sub-steps) to assess risk of air pollutants is introduced. These steps are: pre-considerations, sampling, statistical analysis, exposure matrix and likelihood, doseresponse matrix and likelihood, total risk evaluation, and discussion of findings. All mentioned words and expressions are wellunderstood; however, almost all steps have been modified, improved, and coupled in such a way that a comprehensive method has been prepared. Accordingly, the SADRA (Statistical Analysis-Driven Risk Assessment) emphasizes extensive and ongoing application of analytical statistics in traditional risk assessment models. A Sulfur Dioxide case study validates the claim and provides a good illustration for this method.

Keywords: Criteria air pollutants, Matrix of risk, Riskassessment, Statistical analysis.

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Authors: O. P. Sharma, V. Janyani, S. Sancheti

Abstract:

Data rate, tolerable bit error rate or frame error rate and range & coverage are the key performance requirement of a communication link. In this paper performance of MFSK link is analyzed in terms of bit error rate, number of errors and total number of data processed. In the communication link model proposed, which is implemented using MATLAB block set, an improvement in BER is observed. Different parameters which effects and enables to keep BER low in M-ary communication system are also identified.

Keywords: Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN), Bit Error Rate (BER), Frequency Shift Keying (FSK), Orthogonal Signaling.

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

Abstract:

Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: Risk, Control, Banking, FMECA.

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Authors: Sunusi N., Kresna A. J., Islamiyati A., Raupong

Abstract:

Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research, we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estimation method in actuarial studies. Here, one individual associated with an earthquake with inter event time is exponentially distributed. The information of epicenter and time of earthquake occurrence are used to estimate hazard rate. At the end, a case study of earthquake hazard rate will be given. Furthermore, we compare the hazard rate between HRLPP and HRSD method.

Keywords: Earthquake forecast, Hazard Rate, Likelihood point process, Point process.

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Authors: Aparna Viswanath

Abstract:

Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as nonstorability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: Financial Derivatives, Forward, Futures, Options, Risk Management.

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Authors: T. Motsima

Abstract:

The under-5 mortality rate is high in sub-Saharan Africa with Lesotho being amongst the highest under-5 mortality rates in the world. The objective of the study is to determine the factors associated with under-5 mortality in Lesotho. The data used for this analysis come from the nationally representative household survey called the 2009 Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey. Odds ratios produced by the logistic regression models were used to measure the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable. Female children were significantly 38% less likely to die than male children. Children who were breastfed for 13 to 18 months and those who were breastfed for more than 19 months were significantly less likely to die than those who were breastfed for 12 months or less. Furthermore, children of mothers who stayed in Quthing, Qacha’s Nek and Thaba Tseka ran the greatest risk of dying. The results suggested that: sex of child, type of birth, breastfeeding duration, district, source of energy and marital status were significant predictors of under-5 mortality, after correcting for all variables.

Keywords: Under-5 mortality, risk factors, millennium development goals, breastfeeding, logistic regression.

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Authors: Daniel F. García, Adrián Fernández

Abstract:

Today, computer systems are more and more complex and support growing security risks. The security managers need to find effective security risk assessment methodologies that allow modeling well the increasing complexity of current computer systems but also maintaining low the complexity of the assessment procedure. This paper provides a brief analysis of common security risk assessment methodologies leading to the selection of a proper methodology to fulfill these requirements. Then, a detailed analysis of the most effective methodology is accomplished, presenting numerical examples to demonstrate how easy it is to use.

Keywords: Computer security, qualitative and quantitative methods, risk assessment methodologies, security risk assessment.

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Authors: Theologos Athanaselis, Stelios Bakamidis, Ioannis Dologlou

Abstract:

Emotion in speech is an issue that has been attracting the interest of the speech community for many years, both in the context of speech synthesis as well as in automatic speech recognition (ASR). In spite of the remarkable recent progress in Large Vocabulary Recognition (LVR), it is still far behind the ultimate goal of recognising free conversational speech uttered by any speaker in any environment. Current experimental tests prove that using state of the art large vocabulary recognition systems the error rate increases substantially when applied to spontaneous/emotional speech. This paper shows that recognition rate for emotionally coloured speech can be improved by using a language model based on increased representation of emotional utterances.

Keywords: Statistical language model, N-grams, emotionallycoloured speech

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su

Abstract:

This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.

Keywords: Stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship.

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Authors: Nina V. Zaitseva, Pavel Z. Shur, Nina G. Atiskova

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Nowadays harmonization of sanitary and hygienic standards of environmental quality with international standards is crucial part of integration of Russia into the international community. Harmonization of Russian and international ambient air quality standards may be realized by risk-based standards development. In this paper approaches to risk-based standards development and examples of these approaches implementation are presented.

Keywords: Harmonization, health risk assessment, evolutionary modelling, benchmark level, nickel, manganese.

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Authors: Eberechi Weli, Michael Todinov

Abstract:

The gap between the selection of risk-reduction options in the railway industry and the task of their effective implementation results in compromised safety and substantial losses. An effective risk management must necessarily integrate the evaluation phases with the implementation phase. This paper proposes an essential categorisation of risk reduction measures that best addresses a standard railway industry portfolio. By categorising the risk reduction options into design, operational, procedural and technical options, it is guaranteed that the efforts of the implementation facilitators (people, processes and supporting systems) are systematically harmonised. The classification is based on an integration of fundamental principles of risk reduction in the railway industry with the systems engineering approach.

This paper argues that the use of a similar classification approach is an attribute of organisations possessing a superior level of risk-reduction readiness. The integration of the proposed rational classification structure provides a solid ground for effective risk reduction.

Keywords: Cost effectiveness, organisational readiness, risk reduction, railway, system engineering.

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Authors: Hui Liu, Haiyang Quan

Abstract:

This paper To get the angle value with a MEMS rate gyroscope in some specific field, the usual method is to make an integral operation to the rate output, which will lead the error cumulating effect. So the rate gyro is not suitable. MEMS rate integrating gyroscope (MRIG) will solve this problem. A DSP system has been developed to implement the control arithmetic. The system can measure the angle of rotation directly by the control loops that make the sensor work in whole-angle mode. Modeling the system with MATLAB, desirable results of angle outputs are got, which prove the feasibility of the control arithmetic.

Keywords: Rate gyroscope, Rate integrating gyroscope, Whole angle mode, MATLAB modeling, DSP control.

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Authors: Fong-Woon Lai

Abstract:

The risk sphere in business is fast changing and expanding. Almost anything has become a risk factor that will have potent, direct, and far reaching impacts on business. This paper examines the intensity of enterprise risk management (ERM) practices among the Malaysian public listed companies. The paper espouses a ERM framework comprising fourteen important implementation elements and processes. Results of the analysis indicate that the intensity of ERM implementation among the respondents is in the ‘good’ category of the semantic scale, which is deemed encouraging vis-à-vis the country’s regulatory regime.

Keywords: Enterprise risk management, implementation framework, ERM practices.

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Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

Abstract:

In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: Safety risks assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects.

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Authors: A.Roshandel, N.Hedayat, H.kiamanesh

Abstract:

The one of most important objects in implementation of damage analysis observations is manner of dam break wave propagation. In this paper velocity and wave height due dam break in with and without tailwater states for appointment hazardous lands and flood radius are investigate. In order to modeling above phenomenon finite volume method of Roe type for solving shallow water equations is used. Results indicated that in the dry bed state risk radius due to dam break is too high. While in the wet bed risk radius has a less wide. Therefore in the first state constructions and storage facilities are encountered with destruction risk. Further velocity due to dam break in the second state is more comparing to the first state. Hence erosion and scour the river bed in the dry bed is too more compare to the wet bed.

Keywords: Dam break, finite volume method, tailwater, risk radius, scour

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Authors: Huei-Wen Lin

Abstract:

This paper is to clarify the relationship of individual investor types, risk tolerance and herding bias. The questionnaire survey investigation is conducted to collect 389 valid and voluntary individual investors and to examine how the risk tolerance plays as a mediator between four types of personality and herding bias. Based on featuring BB&K model and reviewing the prior literature of psychology, a linear structural model are constructed and further used to evaluate the path of herding formation through the analysis of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The results showed that more impetuous investors would be prone to herding bias directly, but rather exhibit higher risk tolerance. However, risk tolerance would fully mediate between the level of confidence (i.e., confident or anxious) and herding bias, but not mediate between the method of action (careful or impetuous) for individual investors.

Keywords: Herding, investor types, risk tolerance.

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Authors: Ibrahim S. Alnomay, Jihad Y. Alhammad

Abstract:

Lately, an interest has grown greatly in the usages of RFID in an un-presidential applications. It is shown in the adaptation of major software companies such as Microsoft, IBM, and Oracle the RFID capabilities in their major software products. For example Microsoft SharePoints 2010 workflow is now fully compatible with RFID platform. In addition, Microsoft BizTalk server is also capable of all RFID sensors data acquisition. This will lead to applications that required high bit rate, long range and a multimedia content in nature. Higher frequencies of operation have been designated for RFID tags, among them are the 2.45 and 5.8 GHz. The higher the frequency means higher range, and higher bit rate, but the drawback is the greater cost. In this paper we present a single layer, low profile patch antenna operates at 5.8 GHz with pure resistive input impedance of 50 and close to directive radiation. Also, we propose a modification to the design in order to improve the operation band width from 8.7 to 13.8

Keywords: Microstrip Antenna, RFID, U-shaped, double layer, circular antenna.

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Authors: Arturo Aquino, Manuel Emilio Gegundez, Diego Marin

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In this paper, a new automated methodology to detect the optic disc (OD) automatically in retinal images from patients with risk of being affected by Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) and Macular Edema (ME) is presented. The detection procedure comprises two independent methodologies. On one hand, a location methodology obtains a pixel that belongs to the OD using image contrast analysis and structure filtering techniques and, on the other hand, a boundary segmentation methodology estimates a circular approximation of the OD boundary by applying mathematical morphology, edge detection techniques and the Circular Hough Transform. The methodologies were tested on a set of 1200 images composed of 229 retinographies from patients affected by DR with risk of ME, 431 with DR and no risk of ME and 540 images of healthy retinas. The location methodology obtained 98.83% success rate, whereas the OD boundary segmentation methodology obtained good circular OD boundary approximation in 94.58% of cases. The average computational time measured over the total set was 1.67 seconds for OD location and 5.78 seconds for OD boundary segmentation.

Keywords: Diabetic retinopathy, macular edema, optic disc, automated detection, automated segmentation.

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Authors: M. Ricardo Lang, A. Costa, I. Iesbik, K. Haag, L. Trindade Buffara, O. Reimann Junior, C. Auswaldt Steclan

Abstract:

Stroke affects not only the individual, but has significant impacts on the social and family context. Therefore, it is necessary to know the peculiarities of each region, in order to contribute to regional public health policies effectively. Thus, the present study discusses biomarkers in a post-stroke population, admitted to a stroke unit (U-stroke) of reference in the southern region of Brazil. Biomarkers were analyzed, such as age, length of stay, mortality rate, survival time, risk factors and family history of stroke in patients after ischemic stroke. In this studied population, comparing men and women, it was identified that men were more affected than women, and the average age of women affected was higher, as they also had the highest mortality rate and the shortest hospital stay. The risk factors identified here were according to the global scenario; with systemic arterial hypertension (SAH) being the most frequent and those associated with sedentary lifestyle in women the most frequent (dyslipidemia, heart disease and obesity). In view of this, the importance of studies that characterize populations regionally is evident, strengthening the strategic planning of policies in favor of health care.

Keywords: Biomarkers, population, stroke, sex, stroke unit.

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Authors: Youngseok Lee, Dongjin Chung, Youngjin Kim

Abstract:

R&D risk management has been suggested as one of the management approaches for accomplishing the goals of public R&D investment. The investment in basic science and core technology development is the essential roles of government for securing the social base needed for continuous economic growth. And, it is also an important role of the science and technology policy sectors to generate a positive environment in which the outcomes of public R&D can be diffused in a stable fashion by controlling the uncertainties and risk factors in advance that may arise during the application of such achievements to society and industry. Various policies have already been implemented to manage uncertainties and variables that may have negative impact on accomplishing public R& investment goals. But we may derive new policy measures for complementing the existing policies and for exploring progress direction by analyzing them in a policy package from the viewpoint of R&D risk management.

Keywords: Risk management, Public R&D policy, Science andtechnology policy, Performance management.

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Authors: Mitsuhiro Taniyama, Yuu Hidaka, Masato Arai, Satoshi Kai, Hiromi Igawa, Hiroshi Yajima, Ryoichi Sasaki

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Along with the progress of our information society, various risks are becoming increasingly common, causing multiple social problems. For this reason, risk communications for establishing consensus among stakeholders who have different priorities have become important. However, it is not always easy for the decision makers to agree on measures to reduce risks based on opposing concepts, such as security, privacy and cost. Therefore, we previously developed and proposed the “Multiple Risk Communicator" (MRC) with the following functions: (1) modeling the support role of the risk specialist, (2) an optimization engine, and (3) displaying the computed results. In this paper, MRC program version 1.0 is applied to the personal information leakage problem. The application process and validation of the results are discussed.

Keywords: Decision Making, Personal Information Leakage Problem, Risk Communication, Risk Management

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Authors: Sadovska V.

Abstract:

The progress of concentrations of particular heavy metals was assessed in chosen localities in region Moravia, the Czech Republic, from 2007 to 2009. Particular metals were observed in localities with various types and characterization of zone. Pb, Ni, As and Cd were emphasized as a result of their toxicity and potential adverse health effect to the exposed population. The progress of metal concentrations and their health effects in the most polluted localities were examined. According to the results, the air pollution limit values were not exceeded. Based on the health risk assessment, the probability of developing tumorous diseases is acceptable, except for the increased probability of cancer risk from long-term exposure to As.

Keywords: Air pollution, heavy metals, health risk assessment, individual lifetime cancer risk

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Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

Abstract:

Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: Classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults.

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Authors: Mária Hudáková, Mária Lusková

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This report is focused on widening the theoretical knowledge as well as controlling practical application from the risk management point of view, regarding to dynamic business changes that have occurred in Slovakia which recently has been considered to be an environment full of risk and uncertainty. The idea of the report is the proposal of the controlling operation model in the course of risk management process in an enterprise operating in Slovakia, by which the controller is able to identify early risk factors in suggested major areas of the business management upon appropriate business information integration, consecutive control and prognoses and to prepare in time full-value documents in order to suggest measures for reduction thereof. Dealing with risk factors, that can quickly limit the growth potential of the enterprise, is an essential part of managerial activities on each level. This is the reason why mutual unofficial, ergo collegial cooperation of individual departments is necessary for controlling application from the business risk management point of view. An important part of the report is elaborated survey of the most important risk factors existing in major management areas of enterprises operating in Slovakia. The outcome of the performed survey is a catalogue of the most important enterprise risk factors. The catalogue serves for better understanding risk factors affecting the Slovak enterprises, their importance and evaluation.

Keywords: Controlling, information system, risks management, risk factor, crisis of enterprise.

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Authors: P. Moeinzadeh, A. Hajfathaliha

Abstract:

Many firms implemented various initiatives such as outsourced manufacturing which could make a supply chain (SC) more vulnerable to various types of disruptions. So managing risk has become a critical component of SC management. Different types of SC vulnerability management methodologies have been proposed for managing SC risk, most offer only point-based solutions that deal with a limited set of risks. This research aims to reinforce SC risk management by proposing an integrated approach. SC risks are identified and a risk index classification structure is created. Then we develop a SC risk assessment approach based on the analytic network process (ANP) and the VIKOR methods under the fuzzy environment where the vagueness and subjectivity are handled with linguistic terms parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers. By using FANP, risks weights are calculated and then inserted to the FVIKOR to rank the SC members and find the most risky partner.

Keywords: Analytic network process (ANP), Fuzzy sets, Supply chain risk management (SCRM), VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR)

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Authors: V. Veeraprathap, G. S. Harish, G. Narendra Kumar

Abstract:

Uncontrolled growth of abnormal cells in the lung in the form of tumor can be either benign (non-cancerous) or malignant (cancerous). Patients with Lung Cancer (LC) have an average of five years life span expectancy provided diagnosis, detection and prediction, which reduces many treatment options to risk of invasive surgery increasing survival rate. Computed Tomography (CT), Positron Emission Tomography (PET), and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) for earlier detection of cancer are common. Gaussian filter along with median filter used for smoothing and noise removal, Histogram Equalization (HE) for image enhancement gives the best results without inviting further opinions. Lung cavities are extracted and the background portion other than two lung cavities is completely removed with right and left lungs segmented separately. Region properties measurements area, perimeter, diameter, centroid and eccentricity measured for the tumor segmented image, while texture is characterized by Gray-Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) functions, feature extraction provides Region of Interest (ROI) given as input to classifier. Two levels of classifications, K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) is used for determining patient condition as normal or abnormal, while Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is used for identifying the cancer stage is employed. Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) algorithm is used for the main feature extraction leading to best efficiency. The developed technology finds encouraging results for real time information and on line detection for future research.

Keywords: ANN, DWT, GLCM, KNN, ROI, artificial neural networks, discrete wavelet transform, gray-level co-occurrence matrix, k-nearest neighbor, region of interest.

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Authors: Sandija Zeverte-Rivza, Irina Pilvere, Baiba Rivza

Abstract:

The use of renewable energy sources incl. biogas has become topical in accordance with the increasing demand for energy, decrease of fossil energy resources and the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as to increase energy independence from the territories where fossil energy resources are available.

As the technologies of biogas production from agricultural biomass develop, risk assessment and risk management become necessary for farms producing such a renewable energy. The need for risk assessments has become particularly topical when discussions on changing the biogas policy in the EU take place, which may influence the development of the sector in the future, as well as the operation of existing biogas facilities and their income level.

The current article describes results of the risk assessment for farms producing biomass from agriculture biomass in Latvia, the risk assessment system included 24 risks, that affect the whole biogas production process and the obtained results showed the high significance of political and production risks.

Keywords: Biogas production, risks, risk assessment.

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Authors: R. Berglund, T. Backström, M. Bellgran

Abstract:

This study explores how management addresses psychosocial risks in seven teams of engineers and technicians in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution. The sample is from an ongoing quasi-experiment about psychosocial risk management in a manufacturing company in Sweden. Each of the seven teams belongs to one of two clusters: a positive cluster or a negative cluster. The positive cluster reports a significantly positive change in psychosocial risk levels between two time-points and the negative cluster reports a significantly negative change. The data are collected using semi-structured interviews. The results of the computer aided thematic analysis show that there are more differences than similarities when comparing the risk treatment actions taken between the two clusters. Findings show that the managers in the positive cluster use more enabling actions that foster and support formal and informal relationship building. In contrast, managers that use less enabling actions hinder the development of positive group processes and contribute negative changes in psychosocial risk levels. This exploratory study sheds some light on how management can influence significant positive and negative changes in psychosocial risk levels during a risk management process.

Keywords: Group process model, risk treatment, risk management, psychosocial.

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