Search results for: independent variables

Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

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Model updating method has received increasing attention in damage detection structures based on measured modal parameters. Therefore, a probability-based damage detection (PBDD) procedure based on a model updating procedure is presented in this paper, in which a one-stage model-based damage identification technique based on the dynamic features of a structure is investigated. The presented framework uses a finite element updating method with a Monte Carlo simulation that considers the uncertainty caused by measurement noise. Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) is used as the main algorithm for model updating. Ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM) is a multiagent algorithm based on the ideal gas molecular movement. Ideal gas molecules disperse rapidly in different directions and cover all the space inside. This is embedded in the high speed of molecules, collisions between them and with the surrounding barriers. In IGMM algorithm to accomplish the optimal solutions, the initial population of gas molecules is randomly generated and the governing equations related to the velocity of gas molecules and collisions between those are utilized. In this paper, an enhanced version of IGMM, which removes unchanged variables after specified iterations, is developed. The proposed method is implemented on two numerical examples in the field of structural damage detection. The results show that the proposed method can perform well and competitive in PBDD of structures.

Keywords: Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement, ideal gas molecular movement, model updating method, probability-based damage detection, uncertainty quantification.

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Authors: Tebogo Emma Makaba, Barnabas Ndlovu Gatsheni

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The cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria both located in the Gauteng province are separated by a distance of 58 km. The traffic queues on the Ben Schoeman freeway which connects these two cities can stretch for almost 1.5 km. Vehicle traffic congestion impacts negatively on the business and the commuter’s quality of life. The goal of this paper is to identify variables that influence the flow of traffic and to design a vehicle traffic prediction model, which will predict the traffic flow pattern in advance. The model will unable motorist to be able to make appropriate travel decisions ahead of time. The data used was collected by Mikro’s Traffic Monitoring (MTM). Multi-Layer perceptron (MLP) was used individually to construct the model and the MLP was also combined with Bagging ensemble method to training the data. The cross—validation method was used for evaluating the models. The results obtained from the techniques were compared using predictive and prediction costs. The cost was computed using combination of the loss matrix and the confusion matrix. The predicted models designed shows that the status of the traffic flow on the freeway can be predicted using the following parameters travel time, average speed, traffic volume and day of month. The implications of this work is that commuters will be able to spend less time travelling on the route and spend time with their families. The logistics industry will save more than twice what they are currently spending.

Keywords: Bagging ensemble methods, confusion matrix, multi-layer perceptron, vehicle traffic flow.

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Authors: Duane Barker, John Holliday

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In a 10-week (May – August, 2008) Phase I trial, 840, 1+ rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, received a commercial oral immunomodulator, Fin Immune™, at four different dosages (0, 10, 20 and 30 mg g-1) to evaluate immune response and growth. The overall objective of was to determine an optimal dosage of this product for rainbow trout that provides enhanced immunity with maximal growth and health. Biweekly blood samples were taken from 10 randomly selected fish in each tank (30 samples per treatment) to evaluate the duration of enhanced immunity conferred by Fin-Immune™. The immunological assessment included serum white blood cell (lymphocyte, neutrophil) densities and blood hematocrit (packed cell volume %). Of these three variables, only lymphocyte density increased significantly among trout fed Fin- Immune™ at 20 and 30 mg g-1 which peaked at week 6. At week 7, all trout were switched to regular feed (lacking Fin-Immune™) and by week 10, lymphocyte levels decreased among all levels but were still greater than at week 0. There was growth impairment at the highest dose of Fin-Immune™ tested (30 mg g-1) which can be associated with a physiological compensatory mechanism due to a dose-specific threshold level. Thus, our main objective of this Phase I study was achieved, the 20 mg g-1 dose of Fin-Immune™ should be the most efficacious (of those we tested) to use for a Phase II disease challenge trial.

Keywords: Blood Lymphocyte, Neutrophil Response of Cultured Rainbow Trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oral Immunomodulator – 'Fin-ImmuneTM'.

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Authors: Kyu Jin Kim, Byung Kwan Oh, Hyo Seon Park

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The seismic responses-based structural health monitoring system has been performed to prevent seismic damage. Structural seismic damage of building is caused by the instantaneous stress concentration which is related with dynamic characteristic of earthquake. Meanwhile, seismic response analysis to estimate the dynamic responses of building demands significantly high computational cost. To prevent the failure of structural members from the characteristic of the earthquake and the significantly high computational cost for seismic response analysis, this paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) based prediction model for dynamic responses of building considering specific time length. Through the measured dynamic responses, input and output node of the ANN are formed by the length of specific time, and adopted for the training. In the model, evolutionary radial basis function neural network (ERBFNN), that radial basis function network (RBFN) is integrated with evolutionary optimization algorithm to find variables in RBF, is implemented. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through an analytical study applying responses from dynamic analysis for multi-degree of freedom system to training data in ERBFNN.

Keywords: Structural health monitoring, dynamic response, artificial neural network, radial basis function network, genetic algorithm.

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Authors: A. Javed, K. Djidjeli, J. T. Xing

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The concept of adaptive shape parameters (ASP) has been presented for solution of incompressible Navier Strokes equations using mesh-free local Radial Basis Functions (RBF). The aim is to avoid ill-conditioning of coefficient matrices of RBF weights and inaccuracies in RBF interpolation resulting from non-optimized shape of basis functions for the cases where data points (or nodes) are not distributed uniformly throughout the domain. Unlike conventional approaches which assume globally similar values of RBF shape parameters, the presented ASP technique suggests that shape parameter be calculated exclusively for each data point (or node) based on the distribution of data points within its own influence domain. This will ensure interpolation accuracy while still maintaining well conditioned system of equations for RBF weights. Performance and accuracy of ASP technique has been tested by evaluating derivatives and laplacian of a known function using RBF in Finite difference mode (RBFFD), with and without the use of adaptivity in shape parameters. Application of adaptive shape parameters (ASP) for solution of incompressible Navier Strokes equations has been presented by solving lid driven cavity flow problem on mesh-free domain using RBF-FD. The results have been compared for fixed and adaptive shape parameters. Improved accuracy has been achieved with the use of ASP in RBF-FD especially at regions where larger gradients of field variables exist.

Keywords: CFD, Meshless Particle Method, Radial Basis Functions, Shape Parameters

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Authors: Ya-Hui Lee, Chien-Hung Hsieh, Ching-Yi Lu

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Demographic aging is the major problem that Taiwanese society is facing, and retirement life adaptation is the most concerning issue. In recent years, studies have suggested that in order to have successful aging and retirement planning, a view for the future is necessary. In Taiwan, civil servants receive better pensions and retirement benefits than do other industries. Therefore, their retirement preparation is considerably more significant than other senior groups in Taiwan. The purpose of this study is to understand the correlation of proactive coping and retirement planning of senior civil servants in Taiwan. The method is conducted by questionnaire surveys, with 342 valid questionnaires collected. The results of this study are: 1. The background variables of the interviewees, including age, perceived economic statuses, and retirement statuses, are all significantly related to their proactive coping and retirement planning. 2. Regarding age, the interviewees with ages 55 and above have better proactive coping and retirement planning than those with ages 45 and below. 3. In the aspect of perceived economic statuses, the participants who feel “very good” economic statuses have better proactive coping ability and retirement readiness than those who feel “bad” and “very bad”. 4. Retirees have better proactive coping and retirement planning than those who are still working. 5. Monthly income is significant in retirement planning only. The participants’ retirement planning would be better if they have higher incomes. Furthermore, the participants’ retirement planning would be better if their revenue were €1453~€1937, than if their revenue were below €968. 6. There are positive correlations between proactive coping and retirement planning. 7. Proactive coping can predict retirement planning. The result of this study will be provided as references to the Taiwan government for educational retirement planning policies.

Keywords: Civil servants, proactive coping, retirement planning.

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Authors: Sanjay Baburao Kulkarni

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Exact solution of an unsteady flow of elastico-viscous electrically conducting fluid through a porous media in a tube of elliptical cross section under the influence of constant pressure gradient and magnetic field has been obtained in this paper. Initially, the flow is generated by a constant pressure gradient. After attaining the steady state, the pressure gradient is suddenly withdrawn and the resulting fluid motion in a tube of elliptical cross section by taking into account of the transverse magnetic field and porosity factor of the bounding surface is investigated. The problem is solved in twostages the first stage is a steady motion in tube under the influence of a constant pressure gradient, the second stage concern with an unsteady motion. The problem is solved employing separation of variables technique. The results are expressed in terms of a nondimensional porosity parameter (K), magnetic parameter (m) and elastico-viscosity parameter (β), which depends on the Non- Newtonian coefficient. The flow parameters are found to be identical with that of Newtonian case as elastic-viscosity parameter and magnetic parameter tends to zero and porosity tends to infinity. It is seen that the effect of elastico-viscosity parameter, magnetic parameter and the porosity parameter of the bounding surface has significant effect on the velocity parameter.

Keywords: Elastico-viscous fluid, Elliptic cross-section, Porous media, Second order fluids.

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

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Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: Dam, failure, limit-state, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, Taylor.

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Authors: Ranjan Sarukkalige, Dinushi Gamage

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The aim of this study was to develop a storm water quality improvement strategy plan (WQISP) which assists managers and decision makers of local city councils in enhancing their activities to improve regional water quality. City of Gosnells in Western Australia has been considered as a case study. The procedure on developing the WQISP consists of reviewing existing water quality data, identifying water quality issues in the study areas and developing a decision making tool for the officers, managers and decision makers. It was found that land use type is the main factor affecting the water quality. Therefore, activities, sources and pollutants related to different land use types including residential, industrial, agricultural and commercial are given high importance during the study. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with coordinators of different management sections of the regional councils in order to understand the associated management framework and issues. The issues identified from these interviews were used in preparing the decision making tool. Variables associated with the defined “value versus threat" decision making tool are obtained from the intensive literature review. The main recommendations provided for improvement of water quality in local city councils, include non-structural, structural and management controls and potential impacts of climate change.

Keywords: Storm water quality, Storm water Management, Land use, Strategy plan

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Authors: Zita I. Šereš, Ljubica P. Dokić, Dragana M. Šoronja Simović, Cecilia Hodur, Zsuzsanna Laszlo, Ivana Nikolić, Nikola Maravić

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In this work the concentration of steepwater from corn starch industry is monitored using ultrafiltration membrane. The aim was to examine the conditions of ultrafiltration of steepwater by applying the membrane of 2.5nm. The parameters that vary during the course of ultrafiltration, were the transmembrane pressure, flow rate, while the permeate flux and the dry matter content of permeate and retentate were the dependent parameter constantly monitored during the process. Experiments of ultrafiltration are conducted on the samples of steepwater, which were obtained from the starch wet milling plant „Jabuka“ Pancevo. The procedure of ultrafiltration on a single-channel 250mm lenght, with inner diameter of 6.8mm and outer diameter of 10mm membrane were carried on. The membrane is made of a-Al₂O₃ with TiO₂ layer obtained from GEA (Germany). The experiments are carried out at a flow rate ranging from 100 to 200lh^-1 and transmembrane pressure of 1-3 bars. During the experiments of steepwater ultrafiltration, the change of permeate flux, dry matter content of permeate and retentate, as well as the absorbance changes of the permeate and retentate were monitored. The experimental results showed that the maximum flux reaches about 40lm^-2h^-1. For responses obtained after experiments, a polynomial model of the second degree is established to evaluate and quantify the influence of the variables. The quadratic equitation fits with the experimental values, where the coefficient of determination for flux is 0.96. The dry matter content of the retentate is increased for about 6%, while the dry matter content of permeate was reduced for about 35-40%, respectively. During steepwater ultrafiltration in permeate stays 40% less dry matter compared to the feed.

Keywords: Ultrafiltration, steepwater, starch industry, ceramic membrane.

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Authors: Manoochehr Gholipoor

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The response of growth and yield of rainfed-chickpea to population density should be evaluated based on long-term experiments to include the climate variability. This is achievable just by simulation. In this simulation study, this evaluation was done by running the CYRUS model for long-term daily weather data of five locations in Iran. The tested population densities were 7 to 59 (with interval of 2) stands per square meter. Various functions, including quadratic, segmented, beta, broken linear, and dent-like functions, were tested. Considering root mean square of deviations and linear regression statistics [intercept (a), slope (b), and correlation coefficient (r)] for predicted versus observed variables, the quadratic and broken linear functions appeared to be appropriate for describing the changes in biomass and grain yield, and in harvest index, respectively. Results indicated that in all locations, grain yield tends to show increasing trend with crowding the population, but subsequently decreases. This was also true for biomass in five locations. The harvest index appeared to have plateau state across low population densities, but decreasing trend with more increasing density. The turning point (optimum population density) for grain yield was 30.68 stands per square meter in Isfahan, 30.54 in Shiraz, 31.47 in Kermanshah, 34.85 in Tabriz, and 32.00 in Mashhad. The optimum population density for biomass ranged from 24.6 (in Tabriz) to 35.3 stands per square meter (Mashhad). For harvest index it varied between 35.87 and 40.12 stands per square meter.

Keywords: Rainfed-chickpea, biomass, harvest index, grain yield, simulation.

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Authors: Glenda Wrenn, Juliet Muzere, Meldra Hall, Allyson Belton, Kisha Holden, Chanita Hughes-Halbert, Martha Kent, Bekh Bradley

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Understanding the help seeking decision making process and experiences of health disparity populations with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is central to development of trauma-informed, culturally centered, and patient focused services. Yet, little is known about the decision making process among adult Black women who are non-treatment seekers as they are, by definition, not engaged in services. Methods: Audiotaped interviews were conducted with 30 African American adult women with clinically significant PTSD symptoms who were engaged in primary care, but not in treatment for PTSD despite symptom burden. A qualitative interview guide was used to elucidate key themes. Independent coding of themes mapped to theory and identification of emergent themes were conducted using qualitative methods. An existing quantitative dataset was analyzed to contextualize responses and provide a descriptive summary of the sample. Results: Emergent themes revealed that active mental avoidance, the intermittent nature of distress, ambivalence, and self-identified resilience as undermining to help seeking decisions. Participants were stuck within the help-seeking phase of ‘recognition’ of illness and retained a sense of “it is my decision” despite endorsing significant social and environmental negative influencers. Participants distinguished ‘help acceptance’ from ‘help seeking’ with greater willingness to accept help and importance placed on being of help to others. Conclusions: Elucidation of the decision-making process from the perspective of non-treatment seekers has implications for outreach and treatment within models of integrated and specialty systems care. The salience of responses to trauma symptoms and stagnation in the help seeking recognition phase are findings relevant to integrated care service design and community engagement.

Keywords: Culture, help-seeking, integrated care, PTSD.

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Authors: S. Aberkane, N. Djabali, S. Fafi, A. Baghezza

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Chronic illnesses affect many Algerians. It is possible to investigate the impact of illness representations and coping on quality of life and whether illness representations are indirectly associated with quality of life through their influence on coping. This study aims at investigating the relationship between illness perception, coping strategies and quality of life with chronic illness. Illness perceptions are indirectly associated with the quality of life through their influence on coping mediation. A sample of 316 participants with chronic illness living in the region of Batna, Algeria, has been adopted in this study. A correlation statistical analysis is used to determine the relationship between illness perception, coping strategies, and quality of life. Multiple regression analysis was employed to highlight the predictive ability of the dimensions of illness perception and coping strategies on the dependent variables of quality of life, where mediation analysis is considered in the exploration of the indirect effect significance of the mediator. This study provides insights about the relationship between illness perception, coping strategies and quality of life in the considered sample (r = 0.39, p < 0.01). Therefore, it proves that there is an effect of illness identity perception, external and medical attributions related to emotional role, physical functioning, and mental health perceived, and these were fully mediated by the asking for assistance (c’= 0.04, p < 0.05), the guarding (c’= 0.00, p < 0.05), and the task persistence strategy (c’= 0.05, p < 0.05). The findings imply partial support for the common-sense model of illness representations in a chronic illness population. Directions for future research are highlighted, as well as implications for psychotherapeutic interventions which target unhelpful beliefs and maladaptive coping strategies (e.g., cognitive behavioral therapy).

Keywords: Chronic illness, coping, illness perception, quality of life, self-regulation model.

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Authors: Ho-Jung Ryu, Seung-Yong Lee, Young Cheol Park, Moon-Hee Park

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Two-interconnected fluidized bed systems are widely used in various processes such as Fisher-Tropsch, hot gas desulfurization, CO2 capture-regeneration with dry sorbent, chemical-looping combustion, sorption enhanced steam methane reforming, chemical-looping hydrogen generation system, and so on. However, most of two-interconnected fluidized beds systems require riser and/or pneumatic transport line for solid conveying and loopseals or seal-pots for gas sealing, recirculation of solids to the riser, and maintaining of pressure balance. The riser (transport bed) is operated at the high velocity fluidization condition and residence times of gas and solid in the riser are very short. If the reaction rate of catalyst or sorbent is slow, the riser can not ensure sufficient contact time between gas and solid and we have to use two bubbling beds for each reaction to ensure sufficient contact time. In this case, additional riser must be installed for solid circulation. Consequently, conventional two-interconnected fluidized bed systems are very complex, large, and difficult to operate. To solve these problems, a novel two-interconnected fluidized bed system has been developed. This system has two bubbling beds, solid injection nozzles, solid conveying lines, and downcomers. In this study, effects of operating variables on solid circulation rate, gas leakage between two beds have been investigated in a cold mode two-interconnected fluidized bed system. Moreover, long-term operation of continuous solid circulation up to 60 hours has been performed to check feasibility of stable operation.

Keywords: Fluidized bed, Gas leakage, Long-term operation, Solid circulation.

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Authors: Z. Goosen, E. J. Cilliers

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Social sustainability, as an independent perspective of sustainable development, has gained some acknowledgement, becoming an important aspect in sustainable urban planning internationally. However, limited research aiming at promoting social sustainability within urban areas exists within the South African context. This is mainly due to the different perspectives of sustainable development (e.g., Environmental, Economic, and Social) not being equally prioritized by policy makers and supported by implementation strategies, guidelines, and planning frameworks. The enhancement of social sustainability within urban areas relies on urban dweller satisfaction and the quality of urban life. Inclusive cities with high-quality public spaces are proposed within this research through implementing the third place theory. Third places are introduced as any place other than our homes (first place) and work (second place) and have become an integrated part of sustainable urban planning. As Third Places consist of every place 'in between', the approach has taken on a large role of the everyday life of city residents, and the importance of planning for such places can only be measured through identifying and highlighting the social sustainability benefits thereof. The aim of this research paper is to introduce third place planning within the urban area to ultimately enhance social sustainability. Selected background planning approaches influencing the planning of third places will briefly be touched on, as the focus will be placed on the social sustainability benefits provided through third place planning within an urban setting. The study will commence by defining and introducing the concept of third places within urban areas as well as a discussion on social sustainability, acting as one of the three perspectives of sustainable development. This will gain the researcher an improved understanding on social sustainability in order for the study to flow into an integrated discussion of the benefits Third places provide in terms of social sustainability and the impact it has on improved quality of life within urban areas. Finally, a visual case study comparison of local and international examples of third places identified will be illustrated. These international case studies will contribute towards the conclusion of this study where a local gap analysis will be formulated, based on local third place evidence and international best practices in order to formulate a strategic planning framework on improving social sustainability through third place planning within the local South African context.

Keywords: Planning benefits, social sustainability, third places, urban area.

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: Deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, Turkey.

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Obesity and weight gain are associated with increased risk of developing cardiovascular diseases and the progression of liver fibrosis. Aspartate transaminase–to-platelet count ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) were primarily considered as the formulas capable of differentiating hepatitis from cirrhosis. However, to the best of our knowledge, their status in children is not clear. The aim of this study is to determine APRI and FIB-4 status in obese (OB) children and compare them with values found in children with normal body mass index (N-BMI). A total of 68 children examined in the outpatient clinics of the Pediatrics Department in Tekirdag Namik Kemal University Medical Faculty were included in the study. Two groups were constituted. In the first group, 35 children with N-BMI, whose age- and sex-dependent BMI indices vary between 15 and 85 percentiles, were evaluated. The second group comprised 33 OB children whose BMI percentile values were between 95 and 99. Anthropometric measurements and routine biochemical tests were performed. Using these parameters, values for the related indices, BMI, APRI, and FIB-4, were calculated. Appropriate statistical tests were used for the evaluation of the study data. The statistical significance degree was accepted as p < 0.05. In the OB group, values found for APRI and FIB-4 were higher than those calculated for the N-BMI group. However, there was no statistically significant difference between the N-BMI and OB groups in terms of APRI and FIB-4. A similar pattern was detected for triglyceride (TRG) values. The correlation coefficient and degree of significance between APRI and FIB-4 were r = 0.336 and p = 0.065 in the N-BMI group. On the other hand, they were r = 0.707 and p = 0.001 in the OB group. Associations of these two indices with TRG have shown that this parameter was strongly correlated (p < 0.001) both with APRI and FIB-4 in the OB group, whereas no correlation was calculated in children with N-BMI. TRG are associated with an increased risk of fatty liver, which can progress to severe clinical problems such as steatohepatitis, which can lead to liver fibrosis. TRG are also independent risk factors for cardiovascular disease. In conclusion, the lack of correlation between TRG and APRI as well as FIB-4 in children with N-BMI, along with the detection of strong correlations of TRG with these indices in OB children, was the indicator of the possible onset of the tendency towards the development of fatty liver in OB children. This finding also pointed out the potential risk for cardiovascular pathologies in OB children. The nature of the difference between APRI vs. FIB-4 correlations in N-BMI and OB groups (no correlation vs. high correlation), respectively, may be the indicator of the importance of involving age and alanine transaminase parameters in addition to AST and PLT in the formula designed for FIB-4.

Keywords: APRI, FIB-4, obesity, triglycerides.

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Authors: Bakari M. M. Mwinyiwiwa, Mighanda J. Manyahi, Nicodemu Gregory, Alex L. Kyaruzi

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Microgrids are increasingly being considered to provide electricity for the expanding energy demand in the grid distribution network and grid isolated areas. However, the technical challenges associated with the operation and controls are immense. Management of dynamic power balances, power flow, and network voltage profiles imposes unique challenges in the context of microgrids. Stability of the microgrid during both grid-connected and islanded mode is considered as the major challenge during its operation. Traditional control methods have been employed are based on the assumption of linear loads. For instance the concept of PQ, voltage and frequency control through decoupled PQ are some of very useful when considering linear loads, but they fall short when considering nonlinear loads. The deficiency of traditional control methods of microgrid suggests that more research in the control of microgrids should be done. This research aims at introducing the dq technique concept into decoupled PQ for dynamic load demand control in inverter interfaced DG system operating as isolated LV microgrid. Decoupled PQ in exact mathematical formulation in dq frame is expected to accommodate all variations of the line parameters (resistance and inductance) and to relinquish forced relationship between the DG variables such as power, voltage and frequency in LV microgrids and allow for individual parameter control (frequency and line voltages). This concept is expected to address and achieve accurate control, improve microgrid stability and power quality at all load conditions.

Keywords: Decoupled PQ, microgrid, multisource, renewable energy, dq control.

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Authors: Jailan Mohamed El Demerdash

Abstract:

Millennials are a distinctive and dominant consumer group whose behavior, preferences and purchase decisions are broadly explored but not fully understood yet. Making up the largest market segment in the world, and in Egypt, they have the power to reinvent the hospitality industry and contribute to forming prospective demand for green hotels by showing willingness to adopting their environmental-friendly practices. The current study aims to enhance better understanding of Millennials' perception about sustainable initiatives and to increase the prediction power of their intentions regarding green hotel practices in Egypt. In doing so, the study is exploring the relation among different factors; Millennials' environmental awareness, their acceptance of green practices and their willingness to pay more for them. Millennials' profile, their preferences and environmental decision-making process are brought under light to stimulate actions of hospitality decision-makers and hoteliers. Bearing in mind that responsible consumerism is depending on understanding the different influences on consumption. The study questionnaire was composed of four sections and it was distributed to random Egyptian travelers' blogs and Facebook groups, with approximately 8000 members. Analysis of variance test (ANOVA) was used to examine the study variables. The findings indicated that Millennials' environmental awareness will not be a significant factor in their acceptance of hotel green practices, as well as, their willingness to pay more for them. However, Millennials' acceptance of the level of hotel green practices will have an impact on their willingness to pay more. Millennials were found to have a noticeable level of environmental awareness but lack commitment to tolerating hotel green practices and their associated high prices.

Keywords: Millennials, environment, awareness, green practices, paying more, Egypt.

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Authors: Wardoyo, Humairoh

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In global competition nowadays, the world economy heavily depends upon high technology and capital intensive industries that are mainly owned by well-established economic and developed countries, such as United States of America, United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea. Indonesia as a developing country is building its economic activities towards industrial country as well, although a slightly different approach was implemented. For example, similar to the concept of one village one product (OVOP) implemented in Japan, Indonesia also adopted this concept by promoting local traditional products to improve incomes of village people and to enhance local economic activities. Analysis on how OVOP program increase local people’s income and influence customer satisfaction were the objective of this paper. Behavioral intention to purchase and re-purchase, customer satisfaction and promotion are key factors for local products to play significant roles in improving local income and economy of the region. The concepts of OVOP and key factors that influence economic activities of local people and the region will be described and explained in the paper. Results of research, in a case study based on 300 respondents, customers of a local restaurant at Tangerang City, Banten Province of Indonesia, indicated that local product, service quality and behavioral intention individually have significant influence to customer satisfaction; whereas simultaneous tests to the variables indicated positive and significant influence to the behavioral intention through customer satisfaction as the intervening variable.

Keywords: Behavioral intention, customer satisfaction, local products, one village one product.

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Authors: Anwaar Ahmed, Muhammad Bilal Khurshid, Samuel Labi

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The effect of trucks on the level of service is determined by considering passenger car equivalents (PCE) of trucks. The current version of Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) uses a single PCE value for all tucks combined. However, the composition of truck traffic varies from location to location; therefore, a single PCE value for all trucks may not correctly represent the impact of truck traffic at specific locations. Consequently, present study developed separate PCE values for single-unit and combination trucks to replace the single value provided in the HCM on different freeways. Site specific PCE values, were developed using concept of spatial lagging headways (that is the distance between rear bumpers of two vehicles in a traffic stream) measured from field traffic data. The study used data from four locations on a single urban freeway and three different rural freeways in Indiana. Three-stage-leastsquares (3SLS) regression techniques were used to generate models that predicted lagging headways for passenger cars, single unit trucks (SUT), and combination trucks (CT). The estimated PCE values for single-unit and combination truck for basic urban freeways (level terrain) were: 1.35 and 1.60, respectively. For rural freeways the estimated PCE values for single-unit and combination truck were: 1.30 and 1.45, respectively. As expected, traffic variables such as vehicle flow rates and speed have significant impacts on vehicle headways. Study results revealed that the use of separate PCE values for different truck classes can have significant influence on the LOS estimation.

Keywords: Level of Service, Capacity Analysis, Lagging Headway.

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Authors: Abid I. Abu-Tair, Gavin M. Wilde, John M. Kinuthia

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Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) is a functional capability that has been developed to allow the United Kingdom Fire and Rescue Service to deal with ‘major incidents’ primarily involving structural collapse. The nature of the work undertaken by USAR means that staying out of a damaged or collapsed building structure is not usually an option for search and rescue personnel. As a result there is always a risk that they themselves could become victims. For this paper, a systematic and investigative review using desk research was undertaken to explore the role which structural engineering can play in assisting search and rescue personnel to conduct structural assessments when in the field. The focus is on how search and rescue personnel can assess damaged and collapsed building structures, not just in terms of structural damage that may been countered, but also in relation to structural stability. Natural disasters, accidental emergencies, acts of terrorism and other extreme events can vary significantly in nature and ferocity, and can cause a wide variety of damage to building structures. It is not possible or, even realistic, to provide search and rescue personnel with definitive guidelines and procedures to assess damaged and collapsed building structures as there are too many variables to consider. However, understanding what implications damage may have upon the structural stability of a building structure will enable search and rescue personnel to better judge and quantify risk from a life-safety standpoint. It is intended that this will allow search and rescue personnel to make informed decisions and ensure every effort is made to mitigate risk, so that they themselves do not become victims.

Keywords: Damaged and collapsed building structures, life safety, quantifying risk, search and rescue personnel, structural assessments in the field.

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Authors: Jimeng Shi, Mahek Jain, Giri Narasimhan

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Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as an explicit input. In this paper, we study how the performance of predictive models change as a function of different look-back window sizes and different amounts of time to predict into the future. We also consider the performance of the recent attention-based transformer models, which had good success in the image processing and natural language processing domains. In all, we compare four different deep learning methods (Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Transformer) along with a baseline method. The dataset (hourly) we used is the Beijing Air Quality Dataset from the website of University of California, Irvine (UCI), which includes a multivariate time series of many factors measured on an hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2010-14). For each model, we also report on the relationship between the performance and the look-back window sizes and the number of predicted time points into the future. Our experiments suggest that Transformer models have the best performance with the lowest Mean   Absolute Errors (MAE = 14.599, 23.273) and Root Mean Square Errors (RSME = 23.573, 38.131) for most of our single-step and multi-steps predictions. The best size for the look-back window to predict 1 hour into the future appears to be one day, while 2 or 4 days perform the best to predict 3 hours into the future.

Keywords: Air quality prediction, deep learning algorithms, time series forecasting, look-back window.

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Authors: Rakesh Kumar, Fatima Electricwala

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One of the major thrusts of the Bus Rapid Transit System is to reduce the commuter’s dependency on private vehicles and increase the shares of public transport to make urban transportation system environmentally sustainable. In this study, commuter mode choice analysis is performed that examines behavioral responses to the proposed Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS) in Surat, with estimation of the probable shift from private mode to public mode. Further, evaluation of the BRTS scenarios, using Surat’s transportation ecological footprint was done. A multi-modal simulation model was developed in Biogeme environment to explicitly consider private users behaviors and non-linear environmental impact. The data of the different factors (variables) and its impact that might cause modal shift of private mode users to proposed BRTS were collected through home-interview survey using revealed and stated preference approach. A multi modal logit model of mode-choice was then calibrated using the collected data and validated using proposed sample. From this study, a set of perception factors, with reliable and predictable data base, to explain the variation in modal shift behaviour and their impact on Surat’s ecological environment has been identified. A case study of the proposed BRTS connecting the Surat Industrial Hub to the coastal area is provided to illustrate the approach.

Keywords: BRTS, Private Modes, Mode choice models, Ecological footprint.

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Authors: R. Sutjiati, Rubianto, I. B. Narmada, I. K. Sudiana, R. P. Rahayu

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The prevalence of post-treatment relapse in orthodontics in the community is high enough; therefore, relapses in orthodontic treatment must be prevented well. The aim of this study is to experimentally test the inhibition of relapse of orthodontics tooth movement in NaF of expression TGF-β1, Runx2, alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and microscopic of woven bone. The research method used was experimental laboratory research involving 30 rats, which were divided into three groups. Group A: rats were not given orthodontic tooth movement and without NaF. Group B: rats were given orthodontic tooth movement and without 11.5 ppm by topical application. Group C: rats were given orthodontic tooth movement and 11.75 ppm by topical application. Orthodontic tooth movement was conducted by applying ligature wires of 0.02 mm in diameter on the molar-1 (M-1) of left permanent maxilla and left insisivus of maxilla. Immunohistochemical examination was conducted to calculate the number of osteoblast to determine TGF β1, Runx2, ALP and haematoxylin to determine woven bone on day 7 and day 14. Results: It was shown that administrations of Natrium Fluoride topical application proved effective to increase the expression of TGF-β1, Runx2, ALP and to increase woven bone in the tension area greater than administration without natrium fluoride topical application (p < 0.05), except the expression of ALP on day 7 and day 14 which was significant. The results of the study show that NaF significantly increases the expressions of TGF-β1, Runx2, ALP and woven bone. The expression of the variables enhanced on day 7 compared on that on day 14, except ALP. Thus, it can be said that the acceleration of woven bone occurs on day 7.

Keywords: TGF-β1, Runx2, ALP, woven bone, natrium fluoride.

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Authors: Ahmed Rekik, Mourad Zribi, Ahmed Ben Hamida, Mohamed Benjelloun

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This paper presents an optimal and unsupervised satellite image segmentation approach based on Pearson system and k-Means Clustering Algorithm Initialization. Such method could be considered as original by the fact that it utilised K-Means clustering algorithm for an optimal initialisation of image class number on one hand and it exploited Pearson system for an optimal statistical distributions- affectation of each considered class on the other hand. Satellite image exploitation requires the use of different approaches, especially those founded on the unsupervised statistical segmentation principle. Such approaches necessitate definition of several parameters like image class number, class variables- estimation and generalised mixture distributions. Use of statistical images- attributes assured convincing and promoting results under the condition of having an optimal initialisation step with appropriated statistical distributions- affectation. Pearson system associated with a k-means clustering algorithm and Stochastic Expectation-Maximization 'SEM' algorithm could be adapted to such problem. For each image-s class, Pearson system attributes one distribution type according to different parameters and especially the Skewness 'β1' and the kurtosis 'β2'. The different adapted algorithms, K-Means clustering algorithm, SEM algorithm and Pearson system algorithm, are then applied to satellite image segmentation problem. Efficiency of those combined algorithms was firstly validated with the Mean Quadratic Error 'MQE' evaluation, and secondly with visual inspection along several comparisons of these unsupervised images- segmentation.

Keywords: Unsupervised classification, Pearson system, Satellite image, Segmentation.

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Authors: Jean Berger, Nassirou Lo, Martin Noel

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Perfectly suited for natural or man-made emergency and disaster management situations such as flood, earthquakes, tornadoes, or tsunami, multi-target search path planning for a team of rescue agents is known to be computationally hard, and most techniques developed so far come short to successfully estimate optimality gap. A novel mixed-integer linear programming (MIP) formulation is proposed to optimally solve the multi-target multi-agent discrete search and rescue (SAR) path planning problem. Aimed at maximizing cumulative probability of successful target detection, it captures anticipated feedback information associated with possible observation outcomes resulting from projected path execution, while modeling agent discrete actions over all possible moving directions. Problem modeling further takes advantage of network representation to encompass decision variables, expedite compact constraint specification, and lead to substantial problem-solving speed-up. The proposed MIP approach uses CPLEX optimization machinery, efficiently computing near-optimal solutions for practical size problems, while giving a robust upper bound obtained from Lagrangean integrality constraint relaxation. Should eventually a target be positively detected during plan execution, a new problem instance would simply be reformulated from the current state, and then solved over the next decision cycle. A computational experiment shows the feasibility and the value of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Search path planning, search and rescue, multi-agent, mixed-integer linear programming, optimization.

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Authors: Himanshu V. Gajjar, Anish H. Gandhi, Tanvir A Jafri, Harit K. Raval

Abstract:

Bendability is constrained by maximum top roller load imparting capacity of the machine. Maximum load is encountered during the edge pre-bending stage of roller bending. Capacity of 3-roller plate bending machine is specified by maximum thickness and minimum shell diameter combinations that can be pre-bend for given plate material of maximum width. Commercially available plate width or width of the plate that can be accommodated on machine decides the maximum rolling width. Original equipment manufacturers (OEM) provide the machine capacity chart based on reference material considering perfectly plastic material model. Reported work shows the bendability analysis of heavy duty 3-roller plate bending machine. The input variables for the industry are plate thickness, shell diameter and material property parameters, as it is fixed by the design. Analytical models of equivalent thickness, equivalent width and maximum width based on power law material model were derived to study the bendability. Equation of maximum width provides bendability for designed configuration i.e. material property, shell diameter and thickness combinations within the machine limitations. Equivalent thicknesses based on perfectly plastic and power law material model were compared for four different materials grades of C-Mn steel in order to predict the bend-ability. Effect of top roller offset on the bendability at maximum top roller load imparting capacity is reported.

Keywords: 3-Roller bending, Bendability, Equivalent thickness, Equivalent width, Maximum width.

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Authors: Erica T. R. Mendonça, Caroline M. B. de Araujo, Filho, Osvaldo Chiavone, Sobrinho, Maurício A. da Motta

Abstract:

Oil and gas exploration is an essential activity for modern society, although the supply of its global demand has caused enough damage to the environment, mainly due to produced water generation, which is an effluent associated with the oil and gas produced during oil extraction. It is the aim of this study to evaluate the treatment of produced water, in order to reduce its oils and greases content (OG), by using flotation as a pre-treatment, combined with oxidation for the remaining organic load degradation. Thus, there has been tested Advanced Oxidation Process (AOP) using both Fenton and photo-Fenton reactions, as well as a chemical oxidation treatment using sodium ferrate(VI), Na₂[FeO₄], as a strong oxidant. All the studies were carried out using real samples of produced water from petroleum industry. The oxidation process using ferrate(VI) ion was studied based on factorial experimental designs. The factorial design was used in order to study how the variables pH, temperature and concentration of Na₂[FeO₄] influences the O&G levels. For the treatment using ferrate(VI) ion, the results showed that the best operating point is obtained when the temperature is 28 °C, pH 3, and a 2000 mg.L^-1 solution of Na₂[FeO₄] is used. This experiment has achieved a final O&G level of 4.7 mg.L^-1, which means 94% percentage removal efficiency of oils and greases. Comparing Fenton and photo-Fenton processes, it was observed that the Fenton reaction did not provide good reduction of O&G (around 20% only). On the other hand, a degradation of approximately 80.5% of oil and grease was obtained after a period of seven hours of treatment using photo-Fenton process, which indicates that the best process combination has occurred between the flotation and the photo-Fenton reaction using solar radiation, with an overall removal efficiency of O&G of approximately 89%.

Keywords: Advanced oxidation process, ferrate(VI) ion, oils and greases removal, produced water treatment.

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