Search results for: hydrological potential

Authors: Abeer Samy, Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano, Abdelazim Negm

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The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Keywords: Blue Nile Basin, Climate Change, Hydrological Modeling, Watershed.

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Authors: Nasser Shamskia, Seyyed Habib Rahmati, Hassan Haleh , Seyyedeh Hoda Rahmati

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The main criteria of designing in the most hydraulic constructions essentially are based on runoff or discharge of water. Two of those important criteria are runoff and return period. Mostly, these measures are calculated or estimated by stochastic data. Another feature in hydrological data is their impreciseness. Therefore, in order to deal with uncertainty and impreciseness, based on Buckley-s estimation method, a new fuzzy method of evaluating hydrological measures are developed. The method introduces triangular shape fuzzy numbers for different measures in which both of the uncertainty and impreciseness concepts are considered. Besides, since another important consideration in most of the hydrological studies is comparison of a measure during different months or years, a new fuzzy method which is consistent with special form of proposed fuzzy numbers, is also developed. Finally, to illustrate the methods more explicitly, the two algorithms are tested on one simple example and a real case study.

Keywords: Fuzzy Discharge, Fuzzy estimation, Fuzzy ranking method, Hydrological data

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Authors: Oulad Naoui Noureddine, Cherif ELAmine, Djehiche Abdelkader

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Water resources management includes several disciplines; the modeling of rainfall-runoff relationship is the most important discipline to prevent natural risks. There are several models to study rainfall-runoff relationship in watersheds. However, the majority of these models are not applicable in all basins of the world.  In this study, a new stochastic method called The Only Corresponding Competitor method (OCC) was used for the hydrological modeling of M’ZAB   Watershed (South East of Algeria) to adapt a few empirical models for any hydrological regime.  The results obtained allow to authorize a certain number of visions, in which it would be interesting to experiment with hydrological models that improve collectively or separately the data of a catchment by the OCC method.

Keywords: Empirical model, modeling, OCC, rainfall-runoff relationship.

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Authors: Mehaiguene Madjid, Touhari Fadhila, Meddi Mohamed

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The Cheliff basin offers a good hydrological example for the possibility of studying the problem which elucidated in the future, because of the unclearity in several aspects and hydraulic installation. Thus, our study of the Cheliff basin is divided into two principal parts: The spatial evaluation of the precipitation: also, the understanding of the modes of the reconstitution of the resource in water supposes a good knowledge of the structuring of the precipitation fields in the studied space. In the goal of a good knowledge of revitalizes them in water and their management integrated one judged necessary to establish a precipitation card of the Cheliff basin for a good understanding of the evolution of the resource in water in the basin and that goes will serve as basis for all study of hydraulic planning in the Cheliff basin. Then, the establishment of the precipitation card of the Cheliff basin answered a direct need of setting to the disposition of the researchers for the region and a document of reference that will be completed therefore and actualized. The hydrological study, based on the statistical hydrometric data processing will lead us to specify the hydrological terms of the assessment hydrological and to clarify the fundamental aspects of the annual flow, seasonal, extreme and thus of their variability and resources surface water.

Keywords: Hydrological assessment, surface water resources, Cheliff, Algeria.

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Authors: Fares Laouacheria, Said Kechida, Moncef Chabi

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The objective of the study was based on the hydrological routing modelling for the continuous monitoring of the hydrological situation in the Moudjar river catchment, especially during floods with Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modelling Systems (HEC-HMS). The HEC-GeoHMS was used to transform data from geographic information system (GIS) to HEC-HMS for delineating and modelling the catchment river in order to estimate the runoff volume, which is used as inputs to the hydrological routing model. Two hydrological routing models were used, namely Muskingum and Muskingum routing models, for conducting this study. In this study, a comparison between the parameters of the Muskingum and Muskingum-Cunge routing models in HEC-HMS was used for modelling flood routing in the Moudjar river catchment and determining the relationship between these parameters and the physical characteristics of the river. The results indicate that the effects of input parameters such as the weighting factor "X" and travel time "K" on the output results are more significant, where the Muskingum routing model was more sensitive to input parameters than the Muskingum-Cunge routing model. This study can contribute to understand and improve the knowledge of the mechanisms of river floods, especially in ungauged river catchments.

Keywords: HEC-HMS, hydrological modelling, Muskingum routing model, Muskingum-Cunge routing model.

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Authors: Oluwaseun K. Oyebode, Josiah A. Adeyemo

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Hydrological modelling plays a crucial role in the planning and management of water resources, most especially in water stressed regions where the need to effectively manage the available water resources is of critical importance. However, due to the complex, nonlinear and dynamic behaviour of hydro-climatic interactions, achieving reliable modelling of water resource systems and accurate projection of hydrological parameters are extremely challenging. Although a significant number of modelling techniques (process-based and data-driven) have been developed and adopted in that regard, the field of hydrological modelling is still considered as one that has sluggishly progressed over the past decades. This is majorly as a result of the identification of some degree of uncertainty in the methodologies and results of techniques adopted. In recent times, evolutionary computation (EC) techniques have been developed and introduced in response to the search for efficient and reliable means of providing accurate solutions to hydrological related problems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the underlying principles, methodological needs and applications of a promising evolutionary computation modelling technique – genetic programming (GP). It examines the specific characteristics of the technique which makes it suitable to solving hydrological modelling problems. It discusses the opportunities inherent in the application of GP in water related-studies such as rainfall estimation, rainfall-runoff modelling, streamflow forecasting, sediment transport modelling, water quality modelling and groundwater modelling among others. Furthermore, the means by which such opportunities could be harnessed in the near future are discussed. In all, a case for total embracement of GP and its variants in hydrological modelling studies is made so as to put in place strategies that would translate into achieving meaningful progress as it relates to modelling of water resource systems, and also positively influence decision-making by relevant stakeholders.

Keywords: Computational modelling, evolutionary algorithms, genetic programming, hydrological modelling.

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Authors: Adesoji T. Jaiyeola, Josiah Adeyemo

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This paper presents an extensive review of literature relevant to the modelling techniques adopted in sediment yield and hydrological modelling. Several studies relating to sediment yield are discussed. Many research areas of sedimentation in rivers, runoff and reservoirs are presented. Different types of hydrological models, different methods employed in selecting appropriate models for different case studies are analysed. Applications of evolutionary algorithms and artificial intelligence techniques are discussed and compared especially in water resources management and modelling. This review concentrates on Genetic Programming (GP) and fully discusses its theories and applications. The successful applications of GP as a soft computing technique were reviewed in sediment modelling. Some fundamental issues such as benchmark, generalization ability, bloat, over-fitting and other open issues relating to the working principles of GP are highlighted. This paper concludes with the identification of some research gaps in hydrological modelling and sediment yield.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, evolutionary algorithm, genetic programming, sediment yield.

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Authors: Nishi Bhuvandas, P. V. Timbadiya, P. L. Patel, P. D. Porey

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Recent perceived climate variability raises concerns with unprecedented hydrological phenomena and extremes. Distribution and circulation of the waters of the Earth become increasingly difficult to determine because of additional uncertainty related to anthropogenic emissions. The world wide observed changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle have been related to an increase in the observed temperature over several decades. Although the effect of change in climate on hydrology provides a general picture of possible hydrological global change, new tools and frameworks for modelling hydrological series with nonstationary characteristics at finer scales, are required for assessing climate change impacts. Of the downscaling techniques, dynamic downscaling is usually based on the use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which generate finer resolution output based on atmospheric physics over a region using General Circulation Model (GCM) fields as boundary conditions. However, RCMs are not expected to capture the observed spatial precipitation extremes at a fine cell scale or at a basin scale. Statistical downscaling derives a statistical or empirical relationship between the variables simulated by the GCMs, called predictors, and station-scale hydrologic variables, called predictands. The main focus of the paper is on the need for using statistical downscaling techniques for projection of local hydrometeorological variables under climate change scenarios. The projections can be then served as a means of input source to various hydrologic models to obtain streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and other hydrological variables of interest.

Keywords: Climate Change, Downscaling, GCM, RCM.

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Authors: Gheorghe Romanescu, IonuŃ V. Jora, Cristian Constantin Stoleriu

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The influence of human activities produced by dams along the river beds is minor, but the location of accumulation of water directly influences the hydrological regime. The most important effect of the influence of damming on the way water flows decreases the frequency of floods. The water rate controls the water flow of the dams. These natural reservoirs become dysfunctional and, as a result, a new distribution of flow in the downstream sector, where maximum flow is, brings about, in this case, higher values. In addition to fishing, middle and lower courses of rivers located by accumulation also have a role in mitigating flood waves, thus providing flood protection. The Vaslui also ensures a good part of the needs of the town water supply. The most important lake is Solesti, close to the Vaslui River, opened in 1974. A hydrological regime of accumulation is related to an anthropogenic and natural drainage system. The design conditions and their manoeuvres drain or fill the water courses.

Keywords: Hydraulic works, hydrological regime, average flow, repeat flow.

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Authors: Hashim Isam Jameel Al-Safi, P. Ranjan Sarukkalige

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Climate change is likely to impact the Australian continent by changing the trends of rainfall, increasing temperature, and affecting the accessibility of water quantity and quality. This study investigates the possible impacts of future climate change on the hydrological system of the Harvey River catchment in Western Australia by using the conceptual modelling approach (HBV mode). Daily observations of rainfall and temperature and the long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration, from six weather stations, were available for the period (1961-2015). The observed streamflow data at Clifton Park gauging station for 33 years (1983-2015) in line with the observed climate variables were used to run, calibrate and validate the HBV-model prior to the simulation process. The calibrated model was then forced with the downscaled future climate signals from a multi-model ensemble of fifteen GCMs of the CMIP3 model under three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) to simulate the future runoff at the catchment outlet. Two periods were selected to represent the future climate conditions including the mid (2046-2065) and late (2080-2099) of the 21^st century. A control run, with the reference climate period (1981-2000), was used to represent the current climate status. The modelling outcomes show an evident reduction in the mean annual streamflow during the mid of this century particularly for the A1B scenario relative to the control run. Toward the end of the century, all scenarios show a relatively high reduction trends in the mean annual streamflow, especially the A1B scenario, compared to the control run. The decline in the mean annual streamflow ranged between 4-15% during the mid of the current century and 9-42% by the end of the century.

Keywords: Climate change impact, Harvey catchment, HBV model, hydrological modelling, GCMs, LARS-WG, Australia.

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Authors: Oseni Taiwo Amoo, Bloodless Dzwairo

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In this paper, we extend the versatility and usefulness of GIS as a methodology for any river basin hydrologic characteristics analysis (HCA). The Gurara River basin located in North-Central Nigeria is presented in this study. It is an on-going research using spatial Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Arc-Hydro tools to take inventory of the basin characteristics in order to predict water abstraction quantification on streamflow regime. One of the main concerns of hydrological modelling is the quantification of runoff from rainstorm events. In practice, the soil conservation service curve (SCS) method and the Conventional procedure called rational technique are still generally used these traditional hydrological lumped models convert statistical properties of rainfall in river basin to observed runoff and hydrograph. However, the models give little or no information about spatially dispersed information on rainfall and basin physical characteristics. Therefore, this paper synthesizes morphometric parameters in generating runoff. The expected results of the basin characteristics such as size, area, shape, slope of the watershed and stream distribution network analysis could be useful in estimating streamflow discharge. Water resources managers and irrigation farmers could utilize the tool for determining net return from available scarce water resources, where past data records are sparse for the aspect of land and climate.

Keywords: Hydrological characteristic, land and climate, runoff discharge, streamflow.

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Authors: Ritu Ahlawat

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Among all geo-hydrological relationships, rainfallrunoff relationship is of utmost importance in any hydrological investigation and water resource planning. Spatial variation, lag time involved in obtaining areal estimates for the basin as a whole can affect the parameterization in design stage as well as in planning stage. In conventional hydrological processing of data, spatial aspect is either ignored or interpolated at sub-basin level. Temporal variation when analysed for different stages can provide clues for its spatial effectiveness. The interplay of space-time variation at pixel level can provide better understanding of basin parameters. Sustenance of design structures for different return periods and their spatial auto-correlations should be studied at different geographical scales for better management and planning of water resources. In order to understand the relative effect of spatio-temporal variation in hydrological data network, a detailed geo-hydrological analysis of Betwa river catchment falling in Lower Yamuna Basin is presented in this paper. Moreover, the exact estimates about the availability of water in the Betwa river catchment, especially in the wake of recent Betwa-Ken linkage project, need thorough scientific investigation for better planning. Therefore, an attempt in this direction is made here to analyse the existing hydrological and meteorological data with the help of SPSS, GIS and MS-EXCEL software. A comparison of spatial and temporal correlations at subcatchment level in case of upper Betwa reaches has been made to demonstrate the representativeness of rain gauges. First, flows at different locations are used to derive correlation and regression coefficients. Then, long-term normal water yield estimates based on pixel-wise regression coefficients of rainfall-runoff relationship have been mapped. The areal values obtained from these maps can definitely improve upon estimates based on point-based extrapolations or areal interpolations.

Keywords: Catchment's runoff estimates, influence area regional regression coefficients, runoff yield series,

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Authors: Aouattou Nabila, Saighi Mohamed, Fekih Malika

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The modeling of water transfer in the unsaturated zone uses techniques and methods of the soil physics to solve the Richards-s equation. However, there is a disaccord between the size of the measurements provided by the soil physics and the size of the fields of hydrological modeling problem, to which is added the strong spatial variability of soil hydraulic properties. The objective of this work was to develop a methodology to estimate the hydrodynamic parameters for modeling water transfers at different hydrological scales in the soil-plant atmosphere systems.

Keywords: Hydraulic properties, Modeling, Unsaturated zone, Transfer, Water

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Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah, Mehdi Jorabloo

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Water flow management is one of the most important parts of river engineering. Non-uniformity distribution of rainfall and various flow demand with unreasonable flow management will be caused destroyed of river ecosystem. Then, it is very serious to determine ecosystem flow requirement. In this paper, Flow duration curve indices method which has hydrological based was used to evaluate environmental flow in Gharasou River, Ardabil, Iran. Using flow duration curve, Q90 and Q95 for different return periods were calculated. Their magnitude were determined as 1-day, 3-day, 7-day and 30 day. According the second method, hydraulic alteration indices often had low and medium range. In order to maintain river at an acceptable ecological condition, minimum daily discharge of index Q95 is 0.7 m3.s-1.

Keywords: Ardabil, Environmental flow, Flow Duration Curve, Gharasou River.

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Authors: A. Bumbová, M. Čáslavský, F. Božek, J. Dvořák

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The paper deals with the analysis of hazards and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply of population in a selected region of the Czech Republic. The procedure of identification and analysis of hazards and sensitivity is carried out on the basis of a unique methodology of classifying the drinking water resources earmarked for emergency supply of population. The hazard identification is based on a general register of hazards for individual parts of hydrological structure and the elements of technological equipment. It is followed by a semi-quantitative point indexation for the activation of each identified hazard, i.e. fires of anthropogenic origin, flood and the increased radioactive background accompanied by the leak of radon. Point indexation of sensitivity has been carried out at the same time. The analysis is the basis for a risk assessment of potential resource of emergency supply of population and the subsequent classification of such resource within the system of crisis planning.

Keywords: Hazard identification, sensitivity, semi-quantitative assessment, emergency water supply, crisis situation, ground water.

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Authors: Wardah, T., Kamil, A.A., Sahol Hamid, A.B., Maisarah, W.W.I

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Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from atmospheric model as input to hydrological model in an integrated hydro-meteorological flood forecasting system has been operational in many countries worldwide. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with grid cell sizes between 2 and 14 km have great potential in contributing towards reasonably accurate QPF. In this study the potential of two NWP models to forecast precipitation for a flood-prone area in a tropical region is examined. The precipitation forecasts produced from the Fifth Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models are statistically verified with the observed rain in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. The statistical verification indicates that the models have performed quite satisfactorily for low and moderate rainfall but not very satisfactory for heavy rainfall.

Keywords: MM5, Numerical weather prediction (NWP), quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), WRF

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Authors: A. Bumbová, M. Čáslavský, F. Božek, J. Dvořák, E. Bakoš

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The paper presents the case study of hazard identification and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply as part of the application of methodology classifying the resources of drinking water for emergency supply of population. The case study has been carried out on a selected resource of emergency water supply in one region of the Czech Republic. The hazard identification and sensitivity of potential resource of emergency water supply is based on a unique procedure and developed general registers of selected types of hazards and sensitivities. The registers have been developed with the help of the “Fault Tree Analysis” method in combination with the “What if method”. The identified hazards for the assessed resource include hailstorms and torrential rains, drought, soil erosion, accidents of farm machinery, and agricultural production. The developed registers of hazards and vulnerabilities and a semi-quantitative assessment of hazards for individual parts of hydrological structure and technological elements of presented drilled wells are the basis for a semi-quantitative risk assessment of potential resource of emergency supply of population and the subsequent classification of such resource within the system of crisis planning.

Keywords: Hazard identification, register of hazards, sensitivity identification, register of sensitivity, emergency water supply, state of crisis, resource of emergency water supply, ground water.

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Authors: Mohammed Al-Juhaishi, Mikael Motelica-Heino, Fabrice Muller, Audrey Guirimand-Dufour, Christian Défarge

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This study aims at improving the urban hydrological cycle of the Orléans agglomeration (France) and understanding the relationship between physical and chemical parameters of urban surface runoff and the hydrological conditions. In particular water quality parameters such as pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, major dissolved cations and anions, and chemical and biological oxygen demands were monitored for three types of urban water discharges (wastewater treatment plant output (WWTP), storm overflow and stormwater outfall) under two hydrologic scenarios (dry and wet weather). The first results were obtained over a period of five months. Each investigated (Ormes, l’Egoutier and La Corne) outfall represents an urban runoff source that receives water from runoff roads, gutters, the irrigation of gardens and other sources of flow over the Earth’s surface that drains in its catchments and carries it to the Loire River. In wet weather conditions there is rain water runoff and an additional input from the roof gutters that have entered the stormwater system during rainfall. For the comparison the results La Chilesse is a storm overflow that was selected in our study as a potential source of waste water which is located before the (WWTP). The comparison of the physical-chemical parameters (total dissolved solids, turbidity, pH, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), concentration of major cations and anions) together with the chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biological oxygen demand (BOD) helped to characterize sources of runoff waters in the different watersheds. It also helped to highlight the infiltration of wastewater in some stormwater systems that reject directly in the Loire River. The values of the conductivity measured in the outflow of Ormes were always higher than those measured in the other two outlets. The results showed a temporal variation for the Ormes outfall of conductivity from 1465 μS cm-1 in the dry weather flow to 650 μS cm-1 in the wet weather flow and also a spatial variation in the wet weather flow from 650 μS cm-1 in the Ormes outfall to 281 μS cm-1 in L’Egouttier outfall. The ultimate BOD (BOD28) showed a significant decrease in La Corne outfall from 181 mg L-1 in the wet weather flow to 95 mg L-1 in the dry weather flow because of the nutrient load that was transported by the runoff.

Keywords: BOD, COD, the Loire River, urban hydrology, urban dry and wet weather discharges, macronutrients.

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Authors: Ana Clara Santos, Maria Manuela Portela, Bettina Schaefli

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This work assesses the performance of an analytical model framework to generate daily flow duration curves, FDCs, based on climatic characteristics of the catchments and on their streamflow recession coefficients. According to the analytical model framework, precipitation is considered to be a stochastic process, modeled as a marked Poisson process, and recession is considered to be deterministic, with parameters that can be computed based on different models. The analytical model framework was tested for three case studies with different hydrological regimes located in Switzerland: pluvial, snow-dominated and glacier. For that purpose, five time intervals were analyzed (the four meteorological seasons and the civil year) and two developments of the model were tested: one considering a linear recession model and the other adopting a nonlinear recession model. Those developments were combined with recession coefficients obtained from two different approaches: forward and inverse estimation. The performance of the analytical framework when considering forward parameter estimation is poor in comparison with the inverse estimation for both, linear and nonlinear models. For the pluvial catchment, the inverse estimation shows exceptional good results, especially for the nonlinear model, clearing suggesting that the model has the ability to describe FDCs. For the snow-dominated and glacier catchments the seasonal results are better than the annual ones suggesting that the model can describe streamflows in those conditions and that future efforts should focus on improving and combining seasonal curves instead of considering single annual ones.

Keywords: Analytical streamflow distribution, stochastic process, linear and non-linear recession, hydrological modelling, daily discharges.

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Authors: Elena Carcano, Mirzi Betasolo

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This study aims to provide sub-hourly streamflow predictions and associated rating curves for small catchments of intermittent and torrential flow regime characterized by flash floods occurring especially during April and November. The methodology entails two lumped conceptual hydrological models which work in series. The total model is based upon eleven parameters and shows good flexibility in handling different input sets. Runoff Coefficient has contributed to improving the model’s performances and has been treated as an additional parameter; while Sensitivity Analysis has highlighted how slight changes in the model’s input can lead to changes in model’s output. The adopted procedure is steady and useful to give very practical engineering information at the expense of a parsimonious request both in input data and in the number of adopted parameters. According to the obtained results, the authors encourage the test of this combined procedure on different hydrological scenarios in order to provide information for poorly monitored catchments and not updated sites.

Keywords: Streamflow rating curve, chronological data, streamflow sequences, conceptual models.

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Authors: Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H Sharma, Fatema Akram

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Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameters remaining stationary. However climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise are likely to change. To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.

Keywords: Climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment.

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Authors: Frantisek Bozek, Alena Bumbova, Eduard Bakos

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Paper is dealing with vulnerability concerning elements of hydrological structures and elements of technological equipments which are acceptable for groundwater resources. The vulnerability assessment stems from the application of the register of hazards and a potential threat to individual water source elements within each type of hazard. The proposed procedure is pattern for assessing the risks of disturbance, damage, or destruction of water source by the identified natural or technological hazards and consequently for classification of these risks in relation to emergency water supply. Using of this procedure was verified on selected groundwater resource in particular region, which seems to be as potentially useful for crisis planning system.

Keywords: Hazard, Hydrogeological Structure, Elements, Index, Sensitivity, Water Source, Vulnerability

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Authors: S. Chuenchooklin

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This research was conducted in the Pua Watershed whereas located in the Upper Nan River Basin in Nan province, Thailand. Nan River basin originated in Nan province that comprises of many tributary streams to produce as inflow to the Sirikit dam provided huge reservoir with the storage capacity of 9510 million cubic meters. The common problems of most watersheds were found i.e. shortage water supply for consumption and agriculture utilizations, deteriorate of water quality, flood and landslide including debris flow, and unstable of riverbank. The Pua Watershed is one of several small river basins that flow through the Nan River Basin. The watershed includes 404 km2 representing the Pua District, the Upper Nan Basin, or the whole Nan River Basin, of 61.5%, 18.2% or 1.2% respectively. The Pua River is a main stream producing all year streamflow supplying the Pua District and an inflow to the Upper Nan Basin. Its length approximately 56.3 kilometers with an average slope of the channel by 1.9% measured. A diversion weir namely Pua weir bound the plain and mountainous areas with a very steep slope of the riverbed to 2.9% and drainage area of 149 km2 as upstream watershed while a mild slope of the riverbed to 0.2% found in a river reach of 20.3 km downstream of this weir, which considered as a gauged basin. However, the major branch streams of the Pua River are ungauged catchments namely: Nam Kwang and Nam Koon with the drainage area of 86 and 35 km2 respectively. These upstream watersheds produce runoff through the 3-streams downstream of Pua weir, Jao weir, and Kang weir, with an averaged annual runoff of 578 million cubic meters. They were analyzed using both statistical data at Pua weir and simulated data resulted from the hydrologic modeling system (HEC–HMS) which applied for the remaining ungauged basins. Since the Kwang and Koon catchments were limited with lack of hydrological data included streamflow and rainfall. Therefore, the mathematical modeling: HEC-HMS with the Snyder-s hydrograph synthesized and transposed methods were applied for those areas using calibrated hydrological parameters from the upstream of Pua weir with continuously daily recorded of streamflow and rainfall data during 2008-2011. The results showed that the simulated daily streamflow and sum up as annual runoff in 2008, 2010, and 2011 were fitted with observed annual runoff at Pua weir using the simple linear regression with the satisfied correlation R2 of 0.64, 062, and 0.59, respectively. The sensitivity of simulation results were come from difficulty using calibrated parameters i.e. lag-time, coefficient of peak flow, initial losses, uniform loss rates, and missing some daily observed data. These calibrated parameters were used to apply for the other 2-ungauged catchments and downstream catchments simulated.

Keywords: Streamflow, hydrological model, ungauged catchments.

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: Generalized extreme values (GEV), likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution.

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Authors: R. Suzana, T. Wardah, A.B. Sahol Hamid

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The use of radar in Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) for radar-rainfall measurement is significantly beneficial. Radar has advantages in terms of high spatial and temporal condition in rainfall measurement and also forecasting. In Malaysia, radar application in QPE is still new and needs to be explored. This paper focuses on the Z/R derivation works of radarrainfall estimation based on rainfall classification. The works developed new Z/R relationships for Klang River Basin in Selangor area for three different general classes of rain events, namely low (<10mm/hr), moderate (>10mm/hr, <30mm/hr) and heavy (>30mm/hr) and also on more specific rain types during monsoon seasons. Looking at the high potential of Doppler radar in QPE, the newly formulated Z/R equations will be useful in improving the measurement of rainfall for any hydrological application, especially for flood forecasting.

Keywords: Radar, Quantitative Precipitation Estimation, Z/R development, flood forecasting

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Authors: I. Cano-Aguilera, B. E. Rubio-Campos, G. De la Rosa, A. F. Aguilera-Alvarado

Abstract:

Mining tailings represent a generating source of rich heavy metal material with a potential danger the public health and the environment, since these metals, under certain conditions, can leach and contaminate aqueous systems that serve like supplying potable water sources. The strategy for this work is based on the observation, experimentation and the simulation that can be obtained by binding real answers of the hydrodynamic behavior of metals leached from mining tailings, and the applied mathematics that provides the logical structure to decipher the individual effects of the general physicochemical phenomenon. The case of study presented herein focuses on mining tailings deposits located in Monte San Nicolas, Guanajuato, Mexico, an abandoned mine. This was considered the contamination source that under certain physicochemical conditions can favor the metal leaching, and its transport towards aqueous systems. In addition, the cartography, meteorology, geology and the hydrodynamics and hydrological characteristics of the place, will be helpful in determining the way and the time in which these systems can interact. Preliminary results demonstrated that arsenic presents a great mobility, since this one was identified in several superficial aqueous systems of the micro watershed, as well as in sediments in concentrations that exceed the established maximum limits in the official norms. Also variations in pH and potential oxide-reduction were registered, conditions that favor the presence of different species from this element its solubility and therefore its mobility.

Keywords: Arsenic, mining tailings, transport.

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Authors: M. Byzedi, B. Saghafian

Abstract:

Droughts are complex, natural hazards that, to a varying degree, affect some parts of the world every year. The range of drought impacts is related to drought occurring in different stages of the hydrological cycle and usually different types of droughts, such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomical are distinguished. Streamflow drought was analyzed by the method of truncation level (at 70% level) on daily discharges measured in 54 hydrometric stations in southwestern Iran. Frequency analysis was carried out for annual maximum series (AMS) of drought deficit volume and duration series. Some factors including physiographic, climatic, geologic, and vegetation cover were studied as influential factors in the regional analysis. According to the results of factor analysis, six most effective factors were identified as area, rainfall from December to February, the percent of area with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) <0.1, the percent of convex area, drainage density and the minimum of watershed elevation that explained 90.9% of variance. The homogenous regions were determined by cluster analysis and discriminate function analysis. Suitable multivariate regression models were evaluated for streamflow drought deficit volume with 2 years return period. The significance level of regression models was 0.01. The results showed that the watershed area is the most effective factor with high correlation with deficit volume. Also, drought duration was not a suitable drought index for regional analysis.

Keywords: Iran, Streamflow drought, truncation level method, regional analysis.

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Authors: Ali Dehgan Moroozeh, B. Farhadi Bansouleh

Abstract:

Evapotranspiration is one of the most important components of the hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important variable in water and energy balances on the earth’s surface, and knowledge of the distribution of ET is a key factor in hydrology, climatology, agronomy and ecology studies. Many researchers have a valid relationship, which is a function of climate factors, to estimate the potential evapotranspiration presented to the plant water stress or water loss, prevent. The FAO-Penman method (PM) had been recommended as a standard method. This method requires many data and these data are not available in every area of world. So, other methods should be evaluated for these conditions. When sufficient or reliable data to solve the PM equation are not available then Hargreaves equation can be used. The Hargreaves equation (HG) requires only daily mean, maximum and minimum air temperature extraterrestrial radiation .In this study, Hargreaves method (HG) were evaluated in 12 stations in the North West region of Iran. Results of HG and M.HG methods were compared with results of PM method. Statistical analysis of this comparison showed that calibration process has had significant effect on efficiency of Hargreaves method.

Keywords: Evapotranspiration, Hargreaves equation, FAOPenman method.

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Authors: Achela K. Fernando, Xiujuan Zhang, Peter F. Kinley

Abstract:

A feed-forward, back-propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model has been used to forecast the occurrences of wastewater overflows in a combined sewerage reticulation system. This approach was tested to evaluate its applicability as a method alternative to the common practice of developing a complete conceptual, mathematical hydrological-hydraulic model for the sewerage system to enable such forecasts. The ANN approach obviates the need for a-priori understanding and representation of the underlying hydrological hydraulic phenomena in mathematical terms but enables learning the characteristics of a sewer overflow from the historical data. The performance of the standard feed-forward, back-propagation of error algorithm was enhanced by a modified data normalizing technique that enabled the ANN model to extrapolate into the territory that was unseen by the training data. The algorithm and the data normalizing method are presented along with the ANN model output results that indicate a good accuracy in the forecasted sewer overflow rates. However, it was revealed that the accurate forecasting of the overflow rates are heavily dependent on the availability of a real-time flow monitoring at the overflow structure to provide antecedent flow rate data. The ability of the ANN to forecast the overflow rates without the antecedent flow rates (as is the case with traditional conceptual reticulation models) was found to be quite poor.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Back-propagationlearning, Combined sewer overflows, Forecasting.

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Authors: Abdullah Gokhan Yilmaz, Monzur Alam Imteaz, Shirley Gato-Trinidad, Iqbal Hossain

Abstract:

Climate change leading to global warming affects the earth through many different ways such as weather (temperature, precipitation, humidity and the other parameters of weather), snow coverage and ice melting, sea level rise, hydrological cycles, quality of water, agriculture, forests, ecosystems and health. One of the most affected areas by climate change is hydrology and water resources. Regions where majority of runoff consists of snow melt are more sensitive to climate change. The first step of climate change studies is to establish trends of significant climate variables including precipitation, temperature and flow data to detect any potential climate change impacts already happened. Two popular non-parametric trend analysis methods, Mann-Kendal and Spearman-s Rho were applied to Upper Euphrates Basin (Turkey) to detect trends of precipitation, temperatures (maximum, minimum and average) and streamflow.

Keywords: Climate change, precipitation, snow hydrology, trend analysis and Upper Euphrates Basin

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