Analysis and Prediction of Decadal Hydrological Cycles: A Case Study of the Limpopo River Basin

Authors: Fulufhelo Khangale, Ednah Onyari, Idowu Bodunrin

Abstract:

With the climate change phenomena upon us, the changes in the decadal hydrological cycles must be analysed. Water availability must be analysed to obtain sustainable water supply and future water management planning. The hydrological components, such as evaporation, streamflow, and rainfall, were used to analyse and predict the decadal hydrological cycles in the basin. The streamflow results for the Mann-Kendall test indicate a decreasing trend and an increasing trend is insignificant. For evaporation, the results indicate a decreasing trend in significance and insignificance, whereas the results for rainfall indicate a decreasing trend in both significance and insignificance. The trend analysis for historical data from 1993 to 2023 and future predictions for 2023 to 2063 indicate a decreasing trend for rainfall and evaporation and a decreasing and increasing trend for streamflow. There is a correlation between streamflow and rainfall, but there is no correlation between evaporation and either rainfall or streamflow.

Keywords: Decadal hydrological cycle, Mann Kendall, trend analysis, water availability.

References:

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