Search results for: coastal vulnerability index

Authors: Patience Muchini, Electdom Matandiroya, Emmanuel Mashonjowa

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A ground-end manifestation of space weather phenomena is known as geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). GICs flow along the electric power transmission cables connecting the transformers and between the grounding points of power transformers during significant geomagnetic storms. Zimbabwe has no study that notes if grid failures have been caused by GICs. Research and monitoring are needed to investigate this possible relationship purpose of this paper is to characterize GICs with a power grid network. This paper analyses data collected, which are geomagnetic data, which include the Kp index, Disturbance storm time (DST) index, and the G-Scale from geomagnetic storms and also analyses power grid data, which includes reactive power, relay tripping, and alarms from high voltage substations and then correlates the data. This research analysis was first theoretically analyzed by studying geomagnetic parameters and then experimented upon. To correlate, MATLAB was used as the basic software to analyze the data. Latitudes of the substations were also brought into scrutiny to note if they were an impact due to the location as low latitudes areas like most parts of Zimbabwe, there are less severe geomagnetic variations. Based on theoretical and graphical analysis, it has been proven that there is a slight relationship between power system failures and GICs. Further analyses can be done by implementing measuring instruments to measure any currents in the grounding of high-voltage transformers when geomagnetic storms occur. Mitigation measures can then be developed to minimize the susceptibility of the power network to GICs.

Keywords: Adverse space weather, DST index, geomagnetically induced currents, Kp index, reactive power.

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Authors: Yuriy V. Timofeyev, Galina V. Timofeyeva

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In the paper it is questioned whether effective state social policy provides happiness and social progress. For this purpose selected correlations between Human Development Index (HDI), share of public social expenditures in GDP, the Happy Planet Index (HPI), GDP per capita, and Government Effectiveness are examined and the results are graphically presented. It is shown how a government can affect well-being and happiness in different countries of modern world. Also, it is tested the hypothesis about existence of a certain optimum of well-being and public social expenditures, which affect direction of social progress. It is concluded that efficient social policy and wealth are not the only factors determining human happiness.

Keywords: government effectiveness, happiness, social progress, state social policy

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Authors: Sara D. Garduño-Diaz, Philippe Y. Garduño-Diaz

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To date, one of the few comprehensive indicators for the measurement of food security is the Global Food Security Index (GFSI). This index is a dynamic quantitative and qualitative benchmarking model, constructed from 28 unique indicators, that measures drivers of food security across both developing and developed countries. Whereas the GFSI has been calculated across a set of 109 countries, in this paper we aim to present and compare, for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), 1) the Food Security Index scores achieved and 2) the data available on affordability, availability, and quality of food. The data for this work was taken from the latest available report published by the creators of the GFSI, which in turn used information from national and international statistical sources. MENA countries rank from place 17/109 (Israel, although with resent political turmoil this is likely to have changed) to place 91/109 (Yemen) with household expenditure spent in food ranging from 15.5% (Israel) to 60% (Egypt). Lower spending on food as a share of household consumption in most countries and better food safety net programs in the MENA have contributed to a notable increase in food affordability. The region has also, however, experienced a decline in food availability, owing to more limited food supplies and higher volatility of agricultural production. In terms of food quality and safety the MENA has the top ranking country (Israel). The most frequent challenges faced by the countries of the MENA include public expenditure on agricultural research and development as well as volatility of agricultural production. Food security is a complex phenomenon that interacts with many other indicators of a country’s wellbeing; in the MENA it is slowly but markedly improving.

Keywords: Diet, food insecurity, global food security index, nutrition, sustainability.

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Authors: Mustafa Salman, Nurcan Cetinkaya, Zehra Selcuk, Bugra Genc

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The objectives of the present study were to estimate the microbial-N flow to the small intestine and to predict the digestible organic matter intake (DOMI) in grazing Karayaka sheep based on urinary excretion of purine derivatives (xanthine, hypoxanthine, uric acid, and allantoin) by the use of spot urine sampling under field conditions. In the trial, 10 Karayaka sheep from 2 to 3 years of age were used. The animals were grazed in a pasture for ten months and fed with concentrate and vetch plus oat hay for the other two months (January and February) indoors. Highly significant linear and cubic relationships (P<0.001) were found among months for purine derivatives index, purine derivatives excretion, purine derivatives absorption, microbial-N and DOMI. Through urine sampling and the determination of levels of excreted urinary PD and Purine Derivatives / Creatinine ratio (PDC index), microbial-N values were estimated and they indicated that the protein nutrition of the sheep was insufficient.

In conclusion, the prediction of protein nutrition of sheep under the field conditions may be possible with the use of spot urine sampling, urinary excreted PD and PDC index. The mean purine derivative levels in spot urine samples from sheep were highest in June, July and October. Protein nutrition of pastured sheep may be affected by weather changes, including rainfall. Spot urine sampling may useful in modeling the feed consumption of pasturing sheep. However, further studies are required under different field conditions with different breeds of sheep to develop spot urine sampling as a model.

Keywords: Karayaka sheep, spot sampling, urinary purine derivatives, PDC index, microbial-N, feed intake.

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Authors: H. Mahmood, M. W. Siddiqi, A. Iqbal, M. A. Tabassum

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This study examines the relationships between foreign aid, levels of schooling and democracy for Pakistan using the ARDL cointegration approach. The results of study provide strong evidence for fairly robust long run as well as short run relationships among these variables for the period 1973-2008. The results state that foreign aid and primary school enrollments have negative impact on democracy index and high school enrollments have positive impact on democracy index in Pakistan. The study suggests for promotion of education levels and relies on local resources instead of foreign aid for a good quality of political institutions in Pakistan.

Keywords: Cointegration, Democracy, Education, Foreign Aid

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Authors: Benalia Nadia, Bensiali Nadia, Mekki Mounira

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In this paper, we propose an easily computable proximity index for predicting voltage collapse of a load bus using only measured values of the bus voltage and power; Using these measurements a polynomial of fourth order is obtained by using LES estimation algorithms. The sum of the absolute values of the polynomial coefficient gives an idea of the critical bus. We demonstrate the applicability of our proposed method on 6 bus test system. The results obtained verify its applicability, as well as its accuracy and the simplicity. From this indicator, it is allowed to predict the voltage instability or the proximity of a collapse. Results obtained by the PV curve are compared with corresponding values by QV curves and are observed to be in close agreement.

Keywords: least square method, Voltage Collapse, Voltage Stability, PV curve

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Authors: G. Murugeswari, A. Suruliandi

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This paper proposes a rotational invariant texture feature based on the roughness property of the image for psoriasis image analysis. In this work, we have applied this feature for image classification and segmentation. The fuzzy concept is employed to overcome the imprecision of roughness. Since the psoriasis lesion is modeled by a rough surface, the feature is extended for calculating the Psoriasis Area Severity Index value. For classification and segmentation, the Nearest Neighbor algorithm is applied. We have obtained promising results for identifying affected lesions by using the roughness index and severity level estimation.

Keywords: Fuzzy texture feature, psoriasis, roughness feature, skin disease.

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Authors: Guruprasad Khataniar, Hitesh Tahbildar, Prakriti Prava Das

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There are various overlay structures that provide efficient and scalable solutions for point and range query in a peer-topeer network. Overlay structure based on m-Binary Search Tree (BST) is one such popular technique. It deals with the division of the tree into different key intervals and then assigning the key intervals to a BST. The popularity of the BST makes this overlay structure vulnerable to different kinds of attacks. Here we present four such possible attacks namely index poisoning attack, eclipse attack, pollution attack and syn flooding attack. The functionality of BST is affected by these attacks. We also provide different security techniques that can be applied against these attacks.

Keywords: BST, eclipse attack, index poisoning attack, pollution attack, syn flooding attack.

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Authors: Inga Lapiņa, Indra Borkus, Olga Stariņeca

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Creating shared value (CSV) is a newly introduced concept whose essence and expressions, relationship to Corporate social responsibility (CSR) and implications for the business and society is now at the core of management and social responsibility debates of the scientific world. The aim of the paper is to gain clearer understanding of the CSR and CSV concepts, their implementation and role in sustainable development of organizations in Latvia. In this paper the authors discuss and compare the two conceptsand, based on the results of Sustainability Index (SI) initiative and analysis of publically available company information, evaluate their implementation in Latvia and draw conclusions on the development trends and potential of these approaches in Latvian market.

Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility, Creating Shared Value, Sustainability Index.

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Authors: V.Sekar, T.G.Palanivelu, B.Revathi

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Electromagnetic interference (EMI) is one of the serious problems in most electrical and electronic appliances including fluorescent lamps. The electronic ballast used to regulate the power flow through the lamp is the major cause for EMI. The interference is because of the high frequency switching operation of the ballast. Formerly, some EMI mitigation techniques were in practice, but they were not satisfactory because of the hardware complexity in the circuit design, increased parasitic components and power consumption and so on. The majority of the researchers have their spotlight only on EMI mitigation without considering the other constraints such as cost, effective operation of the equipment etc. In this paper, we propose a technique for EMI mitigation in fluorescent lamps by integrating Frequency Modulation and Evolutionary Programming. By the Frequency Modulation technique, the switching at a single central frequency is extended to a range of frequencies, and so, the power is distributed throughout the range of frequencies leading to EMI mitigation. But in order to meet the operating frequency of the ballast and the operating power of the fluorescent lamps, an optimal modulation index is necessary for Frequency Modulation. The optimal modulation index is determined using Evolutionary Programming. Thereby, the proposed technique mitigates the EMI to a satisfactory level without disturbing the operation of the fluorescent lamp.

Keywords: Ballast, Electromagnetic interference (EMI), EMImitigation, Evolutionary programming (EP), Fluorescent lamp, Frequency Modulation (FM), Modulation index.

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Authors: Leyla Safaie Kouchaksaraie

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In this project electrical and optical properties of BaZrO3 have been accomplished through the full-potential linear augmented plane wave (FP-LAPW) by applying Wein2k software. In this study band structure, density of state, gap energy, refractive index and optical conduction have been studied. The results of calculations show that BaZrO3 is an insulator with an indirect gap in which 3.2 ev and studied refractive index equal 2.07. These results are in accordance with the ones obtained in experimental researches.

Keywords: Density Functional Theory (DFT), Full PotentialLinearized Augmented Plane Wave (Fp-LAPW), GeneralizedGradient Approximation (GGA), Linearized Augmented Plane Wave(LAPW), Local Density Approximation (LDA)

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Authors: Fu-Hsuan Huang, Po-Jung Yuan, Kang-Ping Lin, Hen-Hong Chang, Cheng-Lun Tsai

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Photoplethysmography is a simple measurement of the variation in blood volume in tissue. It detects the pulse signal of heart beat as well as the low frequency signal of vasoconstriction and vasodilation. The transmission type measurement is limited to only a few specific positions for example the index finger that have a short path length for light. The reflectance type measurement can be conveniently applied on most parts of the body surface. This study analyzed the factors that determine the quality of reflectance photoplethysmograph signal including the emitter-detector distance, wavelength, light intensity, and optical properties of skin tissue. Light emitting diodes (LEDs) with four different visible wavelengths were used as the light emitters. A phototransistor was used as the light detector. A micro translation stage adjusts the emitter-detector distance from 2 mm to 15 mm. The reflective photoplethysmograph signals were measured on different sites. The optimal emitter-detector distance was chosen to have a large dynamic range for low frequency drifting without signal saturation and a high perfusion index. Among these four wavelengths, a yellowish green (571nm) light with a proper emitter-detection distance of 2mm is the most suitable for obtaining a steady and reliable reflectance photoplethysmograph signal

Keywords: Reflectance photoplethysmograph, Perfusion index, Signal-to-noise ratio

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Authors: Dina Maratovna Aikenova

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Child care policy must be a priority area of public authorities in any country. This study investigates child care policy in Kazakhstan in accordance with the current position of children and laws. The results show that Kazakhstan policy in this sphere needs more systematic model including state economic and social measures, parental involvement and role of non-government organizations.

Keywords: Children, Kazakhstan, policy, vulnerability.

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Authors: Nasrin Bakhshizadeh, Ashkan Forootan

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A major problem that affects the quality control of polymer in the industrial polymerization is the lack of suitable on-line measurement tools to evaluate the properties of the polymer such as melt and density indices. Controlling the polymerization in ordinary method is performed manually by taking samples, measuring the quality of polymer in the lab and registry of results. This method is highly time consuming and leads to producing large number of incompatible products. An online application for estimating melt index and density proposed in this study is a neural network based on the input-output data of the polyethylene production plant. Temperature, the level of reactors' bed, the intensity of ethylene mass flow, hydrogen and butene-1, the molar concentration of ethylene, hydrogen and butene-1 are used for the process to establish the neural model. The neural network is taught based on the actual operational data and back-propagation and Levenberg-Marquart techniques. The simulated results indicate that the neural network process model established with three layers (one hidden layer) for forecasting the density and the four layers for the melt index is able to successfully predict those quality properties.

Keywords: Polyethylene, polymerization, density, melt index, neural network.

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Authors: Toktam Zoughi, Reza Boostani

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Determining depth of anesthesia is a challenging problem in the context of biomedical signal processing. Various methods have been suggested to determine a quantitative index as depth of anesthesia, but most of these methods suffer from high sensitivity during the surgery. A novel method based on energy scattering of samples in the wavelet domain is suggested to represent the basic content of electroencephalogram (EEG) signal. In this method, first EEG signal is decomposed into different sub-bands, then samples are squared and energy of samples sequence is constructed through each scale and time, which is normalized and finally entropy of the resulted sequences is suggested as a reliable index. Empirical Results showed that applying the proposed method to the EEG signals can classify the awake, moderate and deep anesthesia states similar to BIS.

Keywords: Depth of anesthesia, EEG, BIS, Wavelet transforms.

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Authors: Langroudi B., Salehi E., Keshani S., Baghersad M.

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Transportation is of great importance in the current life of human beings. The transportation system plays many roles, from economical development to after-catastrophe aids such as rescue operation in the first hours and days after an earthquake. In after earthquakes response phase, transportation system acts as a basis for ground operations including rescue and relief operation, food providing for victims and etc. It is obvious that partial or complete obstruction of this system results in the stop of these operations. Bridges are one of the most important elements of transportation network. Failure of a bridge, in the most optimistic case, cuts the relation between two regions and in more developed countries, cuts the relation of numerous regions. In this paper, to evaluate the vulnerability and estimate the damage level of Tehran bridges, HAZUS method, developed by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) with the aid of National Institute of Building Science (NIBS), is used for the first time in Iran. In this method, to evaluate the collapse probability, fragility curves are used. Iran is located on seismic belt and thus, it is vulnerable to earthquakes. Thus, the study of the probability of bridge collapses, as an important part of transportation system, during earthquakes is of great importance. The purpose of this study is to provide fragility curves for Gisha Bridge, one of the longest steel bridges in Tehran, as an important lifeline element. Besides, the damage probability for this bridge during a specific earthquake, introduced as scenario earthquakes, is calculated. The fragility curves show that for the considered scenario, the probability of occurrence of complete collapse for the bridge is 8.6%.

Keywords: Bridge, Damage evaluation, Fragility curve, Lifelines, Seismic vulnerability.

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Authors: Ahmet Çay, Savvas Vassiliadis, Maria Rangoussi, Işık Tarakçıoğlu

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This paper presents a novel approach to assessing textile porosity by the application of the image analysis techniques. The images of different types of sample fabrics, taken through a microscope when the fabric is placed over a constant light source,transfer the problem into the image analysis domain. Indeed, porosity can thus be expressed in terms of a brightness percentage index calculated on the digital microscope image. Furthermore, it is meaningful to compare the brightness percentage index with the air permeability and the tightness indices of each fabric type. We have experimentally shown that there exists an approximately linear relation between brightness percentage and air permeability indices.

Keywords: Textile fabrics, porosity, air permeability, image analysis, light transmission.

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Authors: George E. Tsekouras, Dimitris Papageorgiou, Sotiris Kotsiantis, Christos Kalloniatis, Panagiotis Pintelas

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We develop a three-step fuzzy logic-based algorithm for clustering categorical attributes, and we apply it to analyze cultural data. In the first step the algorithm employs an entropy-based clustering scheme, which initializes the cluster centers. In the second step we apply the fuzzy c-modes algorithm to obtain a fuzzy partition of the data set, and the third step introduces a novel cluster validity index, which decides the final number of clusters.

Keywords: Categorical data, cultural data, fuzzy logic clustering, fuzzy c-modes, cluster validity index.

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Authors: Olubunmi S. Shittu, Olufemi J. Ayodele, Augustus O. A. Ilori, Abidemi O. Filani, Adetola T. Afuye

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Indiscriminate refuse dumping in and around Ado-Ekiti combined with improper management of few available dumpsites, such as Ilokun dumpsite, posed the threat of heavy metals pollution in the surrounding soils and underground water that needs assessment using pollution indices. Surface soils (0-15 cm) were taken from the centre of Ilokun dumpsite (0 m) and environs at different directions and distances during the dry and wet seasons, as well as a background sample at 1000 m away, adjacent to the dumpsite at Ilokun, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria. The concentration of heavy metals used to calculate the pollution indices for the soils were determined using Atomic Adsorption Spectrophotometer. The soils recorded high concentrations of all the heavy metals above the background concentrations irrespective of the season with highest concentrations at the 0 m except Ni and Fe at 50 m during the dry and wet season, respectively. The heavy metals concentration were in the order of Ni > Mn > Pb > Cr > Cu > Cd > Fe during the dry season, and Fe > Cr > Cu > Pb > Ni > Cd > Mn during the wet season. Using the Contamination Factor (CF), the soils were classified to be moderately contaminated with Cd and Fe to very high contamination with other metals during the dry season and low Cd contamination (0.87), moderate contamination with Fe, Pb, Mn and Ni and very high contamination with Cr and Cu during the wet season. At both seasons, the Pollution Load Index (PLI) indicates the soils to be generally polluted with heavy metals and the Geoaccumulation Index (I_geo) calculated shown the soils to be in unpolluted to moderately polluted levels. Enrichment Factor (EF) implied the soils to be deficiently enriched with all the heavy metals except Cr (7.90) and Cu (6.42) that were at significantly enrichment levels during the wet season. Modified Degree of Contamination (mC_d) recorded, indicated the soils to be of very high to extremely high degree of contamination during the dry season and moderate degree of contamination during the wet season except 0 m with high degree of contamination. The concentration of heavy metals in the soils combined with some of the pollution indices indicated the soils in and around the Ilokun Dumpsite are being polluted with heavy metals from anthropogenic sources constituted by the indiscriminate refuse dumping.

Keywords: Contamination factor, enrichment factor, geoaccumulation index, modified degree of contamination, pollution load index.

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

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Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the two-stage model.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy.

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Authors: D. Mokhtari

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Any variation in environmental characteristics of geomorphosites would lead to destabilisation of their geotouristic values all around the planet. The Urmia lake, with an area of approximately 5,500 km2 and a catchment area of 51,876 km2, and to which various reasons over time, especially in the last fifty years have seen a sharp decline and have decreased by about 93 % in two recent decades. These variations are not only driving significant changes in the morphology and ecology of the present lake landscape, but at the same time are shaping newly formed morphologies, which vanished some valuable geomorphosites or develop into smaller geomorphosites with significant value from a scientific and cultural point of view. This paper analyses and discusses features and evolution in several representative coastal and island geomorphosites. For this purpose, a total of 23 geomorphosites were studied in two data series (1963 and 2015) and the respective data were compared and analysed. The results showed, the total loss in geomorphosites area in a half century amounted to a loss of more than 90% of the valuable geomorphosites. Moreover, the comparison between the mean yearly value of coastal area lost over the entire period and the yearly average calculated for the shorter period (1998- 2014) clearly indicates a pattern of acceleration. This acceleration in the rate of reduction in lake area was seen in most of the southern half of the lake. In the region as well, the general water-level falling is not only causing the loss of a significant water resource, which is followed by major impact on regional ecosystems, but is also driving the most marked recent (last century) changes in the geotouristic landscapes. In fact, the disappearance of geomorphosites means the loss of tourism phenomenon. In this context attention must be paid to the question of conservation. The action needed to safeguard geomorphosites includes: 1) Preventive action, 2) Corrective action, and 3) Sharing knowledge.

Keywords: Changing lake, environmental changes, geomorphosite, northwest of Iran, Urmia lake.

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Authors: A.A.Andaleeb, Rozhan.M.Idrus, Issham Ismail, A.K. Mokaram

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This paper reports the findings of a research conducted to evaluate the ownership and usage of technology devices within Distance Education students- according to their age. This research involved 45 Distance Education students from USM Universiti Sains Malaysia (DEUSM) as its respondents. Data was collected through questionnaire that had been developed by the researchers based on some literature review. The data was analyzed to find out the frequencies of respondents agreements towards ownership of technology devices and the use of technology devices. The findings shows that all respondents own mobile phone and majority of them reveal that they use mobile on regular basis. The student in the age 30-39 has the heist ownership of the technology devices.

Keywords: technology devices, mobile phone, distance learners, techno readiness Index, Age

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Authors: Ara Sh. Keshishyan, Dezdemonia V. Manukyan, Gayane G. Melik-Andreasyan, Maria V. Harutyunova, Karine V. Harutyunova

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The data presented in this work show that in Armenia a rise of air temperature is expected in the season, and annual terms. As a result of the noted increase in temperature, a significant growth of vulnerability of the territory of Armenia in relation to malaria is expected. Zoning by the risk of renewed malaria transmission has been performed.

Keywords: Armenia, climate change, malaria, zoning of Armenia.

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Authors: V.Ashok, A.Nirmalkumar, N.Jeyashanthi

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A method and apparatus for noninvasive measurement of blood glucose concentration based on transilluminated laser beam via the Index Finger has been reported in this paper. This method depends on atomic gas (He-Ne) laser operating at 632.8nm wavelength. During measurement, the index finger is inserted into the glucose sensing unit, the transilluminated optical signal is converted into an electrical signal, compared with the reference electrical signal, and the obtained difference signal is processed by signal processing unit which presents the results in the form of blood glucose concentration. This method would enable the monitoring blood glucose level of the diabetic patient continuously, safely and noninvasively.

Keywords: Anisotropy factor, Blood glucose, Diabetes Mellitus, Noninvasive method, Photo detectors.

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Authors: J. I. Asnor, S. Rosnah, Z. W. H. Wan, H. A. B. Badrul

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Pineapples can be classified using an index with seven levels of maturity based on the green and yellow color of the skin. As the pineapple ripens, the skin will change from pale green to a golden or yellowish color. The issues that occur in agriculture nowadays are to do with farmers being unable to distinguish between the indexes of pineapple maturity correctly and effectively. There are several reasons for why farmers cannot properly follow the guideline provide by Federal Agriculture Marketing Authority (FAMA) and one of reason is that due to manual inspection done by experts, there are no specific and universal guidelines to be adopted by farmers due to the different points of view of the experts when sorting the pineapples based on their knowledge and experience. Therefore, an automatic system will help farmers to identify pineapple maturity effectively and will become a universal indicator to farmers.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Image Processing, Index of Maturity, Pineapple

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Authors: Murat Gunduz, Mohanad H. A. AbuHassan

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Construction industry mainly focuses on the superstructure, infrastructure, and oil and gas industry. The development of infrastructure projects in developing countries attracted a lot of foreign construction contractors, consultants, suppliers and diversified workforce to interfere and to be evolved in such huge investment. Reducing worksite delays in such projects require knowledge and attention. Therefore, it is important to identify the influencing delay attributes affecting construction projects. The significant project factors affecting construction delays were investigated. Data collection was carried out through an online web survey system to capture significant factors. Significant factors were determined with importance index and relevant recommendations are made. The output of the data analysis would lead the industry experts better assess the impact of construction delays on construction projects.

Keywords: Construction industry, delays, importance index.

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Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX, prediction, stock market, time series.

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Authors: N.K.K. Welgama, W.A.D.P. Wanigasundera

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Small tanks, the ancient man-made rain water storage systems, support the pheasant life and agriculture of the dry zone of Sri Lanka. Many small tanks were abandoned with time due to various reasons. Such tanks, rehabilitated in the recent past, were found to be less sustainable and most of these rehabilitation approaches have failed. The objective of this research is to assess the impact of the rehabilitation approaches in the management of small tanks in the Kurunegala District of Sri Lanka with respect to eight small tanks. A Sustainability index was developed using seven indicators representing the ability and commitment of the villagers to maintain these tanks. The sustainability index of the eight tanks varied between 79.2 and 47.2 out of a total score of 100. The conclusion is that, the approaches used for tank rehabilitation have a significant effect on the sustainability of the management of these small tanks.

Keywords: Minor irrigation schemes, Participatory, Small Tanks, Sustainable, Water resource management.

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Authors: Walsh Joe, Climstein Mike, Heazlewood Ian Timothy, Burke Stephen, Kettunen Jyrki, Adams Kent, DeBeliso Mark

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Whilst there is growing evidence that activity across the lifespan is beneficial for improved health, there are also many changes involved with the aging process and subsequently the potential for reduced indices of health. The nexus between health, physical activity and aging is complex and has raised much interest in recent times due to the realization that a multifaceted approached is necessary in order to counteract a growing obesity epidemic. By investigating age based trends within a population adhering to competitive sport at older ages, further insight might be gleaned to assist in understanding one of many factors influencing this relationship. BMI was derived using data gathered on a total of 6,071 masters athletes (51.9% male, 48.1% female) aged 25 to 91 years ( =51.5, s =±9.7), competing at the Sydney World Masters Games (2009). Using linear and loess regression it was demonstrated that the usual tendency for prevalence of higher BMI increasing with age was reversed in the sample. This trend in reversal was repeated for both male and female only sub-sets of the sample participants, indicating the possibility of improved prevalence of BMI with increasing age for both the sample as a whole and these individual subgroups. This evidence of improved classification in one index of health (reduced BMI) for masters athletes (when compared to the general population) implies there are either improved levels of this index of health with aging due to adherence to sport or possibly the reduced BMI is advantageous and contributes to this cohort adhering (or being attracted) to masters sport at older ages. Demonstration of this proportionately under-investigated World Masters Games population having an improved relationship between BMI and increasing age over the general population is of particular interest in the context of the measures being taken globally to curb an obesity epidemic.

Keywords: Aging, masters athlete, Quetelet Index, sport.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee, W. Preechaporn, S. Chumkiew

Abstract:

This study investigated the number of Aedes larvae, the key breeding sites of Aedes sp., and the relationship between climatic factors and the incidence of DHF in Samui Islands. We conducted our questionnaire and larval surveys from randomly selected 105 households in Samui Islands in July-September 2006. Pearson-s correlation coefficient was used to explore the primary association between the DHF incidence and all climatic factors. Multiple stepwise regression technique was then used to fit the statistical model. The results showed that the positive indoor containers were small jars, cement tanks, and plastic tanks. The positive outdoor containers were small jars, cement tanks, plastic tanks, used cans, tires, plastic bottles, discarded objects, pot saucers, plant pots, and areca husks. All Ae. albopictus larval indices (i.e., CI, HI, and BI) were higher than Ae. aegypti larval indices in this area. These larval indices were higher than WHO standard. This indicated a high risk of DHF transmission at Samui Islands. The multiple stepwise regression model was y = –288.80 + 11.024xmean temp. The mean temperature was positively associated with the DHF incidence in this area.

Keywords: Dengue vectors, Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Container Index, House Index, Breteau Index, Aedes indices, Climatic factors, Temperature.

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