Search results for: central%20place%20theory
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 629

Search results for: central%20place%20theory

419 Information System for Data Selection and New Information Acquisition for Reconfigurable Multifunctional Machine Tools

Authors: Sasho Guergov

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to develop an informationcontrol environment for overall management and self-reconfiguration of the reconfigurable multifunctional machine tool for machining both rotation and prismatic parts and high concentration of different technological operations - turning, milling, drilling, grinding, etc. For the realization of this purpose on the basis of defined sub-processes for the implementation of the technological process, architecture of the information-search system for machine control is suggested. By using the object-oriented method, a structure and organization of the search system based on agents and manager with central control are developed. Thus conditions for identification of available information in DBs, self-reconfiguration of technological system and entire control of the reconfigurable multifunctional machine tool are created.

Keywords: Information system, multifunctional machine tool, reconfigurable machine tool, search system.

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418 Modeling of Coagulation Process for the Removal of Carbofuran in Aqueous Solution

Authors: Roli Saini, Pradeep Kumar

Abstract:

A coagulation/flocculation process was adopted for the reduction of carbamate insecticide (carbofuran) from aqueous solution. Ferric chloride (FeCl3) was used as a coagulant to treat the carbofuran. To exploit the reduction efficiency of pesticide concentration and COD, the jar-test experiments were carried out and process was optimized through response surface methodology (RSM). The effects of two independent factors; i.e., FeCl3 dosage and pH on the reduction efficiency were estimated by using central composite design (CCD). The initial COD of the 30 mg/L concentrated solution was found to be 510 mg/L. Results exposed that the maximum reduction occurred at an optimal condition of FeCl3 = 80 mg/L, and pH = 5.0, from which the reduction of concentration and COD 75.13% and 65.34%, respectively. The present study also predicted that the obtained regression equations could be helpful as the theoretical basis for the coagulation process of pesticide wastewater.

Keywords: Carbofuran, coagulation, optimization, response surface methodology.

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417 Quality Assurance and Effectiveness in Kurdistan Higher Education: The Reform Process

Authors: Selar Othman Ali

Abstract:

Implementing quality assurance in higher education establishments is the main focus of the reform process currently undertaken by the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The reform agenda has involved attempts to improve academic quality and management processes in universities, technical institutions and colleges. The central challenge for the reform process is to produce change in higher education in a region where administration is described as centralized and bureaucratic. To make these changes, there should be a well-designed plans and follow up processes in order to monitor progress and develop responses to obstacles. Lack of skills, resources, political dilemmas, poor motivation, and readiness to face the consequences of change are factors which will determine the success of the reform process.

Keywords: Higher Education, Kurdistan-Iraq, Quality Assurance

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416 The Impact of Globalization on the Development of Israel Advanced Changes

Authors: Erez Cohen

Abstract:

The study examines the socioeconomic impact of development of an advanced industry in Israel. The research method is based on data collected from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics and from the National Insurance Institute (NII) databases, which provided information that allows to examine the Economic and Social Changes during the 1990s. The study examined the socioeconomic effects of the development of advanced industry in Israel. The research findings indicate that as a result of globalization processes, the weight of traditional industry began to diminish as a result of factory closures and the laying off of workers. These circumstances led to growing unemployment among the weaker groups in Israeli society, detracting from their income and thus increasing inequality among different socioeconomic groups in Israel and enhancement of social disparities.

Keywords: Globalization, Israeli advanced industry, public policy, socio-economic indicators.

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415 Simulation of Activity Stream inside Energy Social Business Environment using Assemblage Theory and Simplicial Complex Tool

Authors: Eddie Soulier, Philippe Calvez, Florie Bugeaud, Francis Rousseaux, Jacky Legrand

Abstract:

Social, mobility and information aggregation inside business environment need to converge to reach the next step of collaboration to enhance interaction and innovation. The following article is based on the “Assemblage" concept seen as a framework to formalize new user interfaces and applications. The area of research is the Energy Social Business Environment, especially the Energy Smart Grids, which are considered as functional and technical foundations of the revolution of the Energy Sector of tomorrow. The assemblages are modelized by means of mereology and simplicial complexes. Its objective is to offer new central attention and decision-making tools to end-users.

Keywords: Activity Streams, Assemblage, Energy Social Business Environment, Simplicial Complex, Smart Grid

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414 Multiscale Structures and Their Evolution in a Screen Cylinder Wake

Authors: Azlin M. Azmi, T. Zhou, A. Rinoshika, L. Cheng

Abstract:

The turbulent structures in the wake (x/d =10 to 60) of a screen cylinder have been educed to understand the roles of the various structures as evolving downstream by comparing with those obtained in a solid circular cylinder wake at Reynolds number, Re of 7000. Using a wavelet multiresolution technique, the flow structures are decomposed into a number of wavelet components based on their central frequencies. It is observed that in the solid cylinder wake, large-scale structures (of frequencyf0 and 1.2 f0) make the largest contribution to the Reynolds stresses although they start to lose their roles significantly at x/d> 20. In the screen cylinder wake, the intermediate-scale structures (2f0 and 4f0) contribute the most to the Reynolds stresses atx/d =10 before being taken over by the large-scale structures (f0) further downstream.

Keywords: Turbulent structure, screen cylinder, vortex, wavelet multiresolution analysis.

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413 Entropy Analysis in a Bubble Column Based on Ultrafast X-Ray Tomography Data

Authors: Stoyan Nedeltchev, Markus Schubert

Abstract:

By means of the ultrafast X-ray tomography facility, data were obtained at different superficial gas velocities UG in a bubble column (0.1 m in ID) operated with an air-deionized water system at ambient conditions. Raw reconstructed images were treated by both the information entropy (IE) and the reconstruction entropy (RE) algorithms in order to identify the main transition velocities in a bubble column. The IE values exhibited two well-pronounced minima at UG=0.025 m/s and UG=0.085 m/s identifying the boundaries of the homogeneous, transition and heterogeneous regimes. The RE extracted from the central region of the column’s cross-section exhibited only one characteristic peak at UG=0.03 m/s, which was attributed to the transition from the homogeneous to the heterogeneous flow regime. This result implies that the transition regime is non-existent in the core of the column.

Keywords: Bubble column, ultrafast X-ray tomography, information entropy, reconstruction entropy.

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412 Compact Tunable 10 W picosecond Sourcebased on Yb-doped Fiber Amplification of Gain Switch Laser Diode

Authors: Hongjun Liu, Cunxiao Gao, Jintao Tao, Wei Zhao, Yishan Wang

Abstract:

A compact tunable 10 W picosecond source based on Yb-doped fiber amplification of gain switch laser diode has been demonstrated. A gain switch semiconductor laser diode was used as the seed source, and a multi-stage single mode Yb-doped fiber preamplifier was combined with two large mode area double-clad Yb-doped fiber main amplifiers to construct the amplification system. The tunable pulses with high stability and excellent beam quality (M2<1.2) of 10 W average power 150 ps pulse duration at 1 MHz repetition rate were obtained. The central wavelength with the line width of 2.5-3 nm was tunable from 1053 nm to 1073 nm.

Keywords: Fiber laser, fiber amplifier, picosecond laser, highpower laser

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411 Learning Bridge: A Reading Comprehension Platform with Rich Media

Authors: Yu-Chin Kuo, Szu-Wei Yang, Hsin-Hung Kuo

Abstract:

A Reading Comprehend (RC) Platform has been constructed and developed to facilitate children-s English reading comprehension. Like a learning bridge, the RC Platform focuses on the integration of rich media and picture-book texts. The study is to examine the effects of the project within the RC Platform for children. Two classes of fourth graders were selected from a public elementary school in an urban area of central Taiwan. The findings taken from the survey showed that the students demonstrated high interest in the RC Platform. The students benefited greatly and enjoyed reading via the technology-enhanced project within the RC Platform. This Platform is a good reading bridge to enrich students- learning experiences and enhance their performance in English reading comprehension.

Keywords: English Teaching, Multimedia-based Learning, Learning Platform, Reading Comprehension, Technology EnhancedLearning.

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410 Meta-Search in Human Resource Management

Authors: Jürgen Dorn, Tabbasum Naz

Abstract:

In the area of Human Resource Management, the trend is towards online exchange of information about human resources. For example, online applications for employment become standard and job offerings are posted in many job portals. However, there are too many job portals to monitor all of them if someone is interested in a new job. We developed a prototype for integrating information of different job portals into one meta-search engine. First, existing job portals were investigated and XML schema documents were derived automated from these portals. Second, translation rules for transforming each schema to a central HR-XML-conform schema were determined. The HR-XML-schema is used to build a form for searching jobs. The data supplied by a user in this form is now translated into queries for the different job portals. Each result obtained by a job portal is sent to the meta-search engine that ranks the result of all received job offers according to user's preferences.

Keywords: Meta-search, Information extraction and integration, human resource management, job search.

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409 The Links between Brain Insulin Resistance and Alzheimer’s Disease

Authors: Negar Khezri, Golnaz Yaghoubnezhadzanganeh, Amirreza Attarzadeh

Abstract:

Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) are two main health problems influencing millions of people in the world. Neuron loss and synaptic impairment that interfere with cognition and memory cause for the behavioral indications of AD. While it is now accepted that insulin has central neuromodulatory purpose, it was contemplated for many years that brain is insusceptible to insulin, involving its function in memory and learning, which are impaired in AD. The common characteristics of both AD and T2D are impaired insulin signaling, oxidative stress, the excitation of inflammatory pathways and unqualified glucose metabolism. This review summarizes how the recognition of these mechanisms may lead to the development of alternative therapeutic approaches. Here we summarize how the recognition of these mechanisms may lead to the development of alternative therapeutic approaches.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, insulin resistance, neurodegenerative.

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408 Reliability-Based Topology Optimization Based on Evolutionary Structural Optimization

Authors: Sang-Rak Kim, Jea-Yong Park, Won-Goo Lee, Jin-Shik Yu, Seog-Young Han

Abstract:

This paper presents a Reliability-Based Topology Optimization (RBTO) based on Evolutionary Structural Optimization (ESO). An actual design involves uncertain conditions such as material property, operational load and dimensional variation. Deterministic Topology Optimization (DTO) is obtained without considering of the uncertainties related to the uncertainty parameters. However, RBTO involves evaluation of probabilistic constraints, which can be done in two different ways, the reliability index approach (RIA) and the performance measure approach (PMA). Limit state function is approximated using Monte Carlo Simulation and Central Composite Design for reliability analysis. ESO, one of the topology optimization techniques, is adopted for topology optimization. Numerical examples are presented to compare the DTO with RBTO.

Keywords: Evolutionary Structural Optimization, PerformanceMeasure Approach, Reliability-Based Topology Optimization, Reliability Index Approach.

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407 Coordination on Agrifood Supply Chain

Authors: Martha Liliana Reina Usuga, Wilson Adarme Jaimes, Oscar Eduardo Suarez

Abstract:

Coordinated supply chain represents major challenges for the different actors involved in it, because each agent responds to individual interests. The paper presents a framework with the reviewed literature regarding the system's decision structure and nature of demand. Later, it characterizes an agri food supply chain in the Central Region of Colombia, it responds to a decentralized distribution system and a stochastic demand. Finally, the paper recommends coordinating the chain based on shared information, and mechanisms for each agent, as VMI (vendor-managed inventory) strategy for farmer-buyer relationship, information system for farmers and contracts for transportation service providers.

Keywords: Agri-food supply chain, Coordination mechanisms, Decentralized distribution system, Supply chain coordination.

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406 A Novel Tracking Method Using Filtering and Geometry

Authors: Sang Hoon Lee, Jong Sue Bae, Taewan Kim, Jin Mo Song, Jong Ju Kim

Abstract:

Image target detection and tracking methods based on target information such as intensity, shape model, histogram and target dynamics have been proven to be robust to target model variations and background clutters as shown by recent researches. However, no definitive answer has been given to occluded target by counter measure or limited field of view(FOV). In this paper, we will present a novel tracking method using filtering and computational geometry. This paper has two central goals: 1) to deal with vulnerable target measurements; and 2) to maintain target tracking out of FOV using non-target-originated information. The experimental results, obtained with airborne images, show a robust tracking ability with respect to the existing approaches. In exploring the questions of target tracking, this paper will be limited to consideration of airborne image.

Keywords: Tracking, Computational geometry, Homography, Filter

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405 SMART: Solution Methods with Ants Running by Types

Authors: Nicolas Zufferey

Abstract:

Ant algorithms are well-known metaheuristics which have been widely used since two decades. In most of the literature, an ant is a constructive heuristic able to build a solution from scratch. However, other types of ant algorithms have recently emerged: the discussion is thus not limited by the common framework of the constructive ant algorithms. Generally, at each generation of an ant algorithm, each ant builds a solution step by step by adding an element to it. Each choice is based on the greedy force (also called the visibility, the short term profit or the heuristic information) and the trail system (central memory which collects historical information of the search process). Usually, all the ants of the population have the same characteristics and behaviors. In contrast in this paper, a new type of ant metaheuristic is proposed, namely SMART (for Solution Methods with Ants Running by Types). It relies on the use of different population of ants, where each population has its own personality.

Keywords: Optimization, Metaheuristics, Ant Algorithms, Evolutionary Procedures, Population-Based Methods.

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404 Willingness and Attitude Towards Organ Donation of Nurses in Taiwan

Authors: Min-Chuan Huang, I-Ping Chen, Shu-Ying Chung

Abstract:

Taking the medical staff in an emergency ward of a medical center in Central Taiwan as the research object, the questionnaire data were collected by anonymous and voluntary reporting methods with structured questionnaires to explore organ donation’s actual situation, willingness, and attitude. Only 80 valid questionnaires were gathered. Of the 8 questions, the correct mean rate was 5.9 and the correct rate was 73.13%. According to the statistics of organ donation survey, only 8.7% have signed the consent for organ donation, 21.3% are willing but have not yet signed the consent for organ donation, 62.5% have not yet decided, and 7.5% are unwilling. The average total score (standard deviation) of attitude towards organ donation was 36.2. There is no significant difference between the demographic variables and the awareness and willingness of organ donation, but there is a significant correlation between marital status and the attitude toward organ donation.

Keywords: clinical psychology, organ donation, factors affecting psychological disorders, commitment

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403 New Malate Dehydrogenase-Glutamate Oxaolacetate Aminotransferase Glutamate Oxaloacetate Aminotransferase Enzyme System from Cereals and its Bioengineering Application

Authors: Zhanar S. Kudiyarova, Zhanar K. Rakhmetova, L. K. Bekbayeva, N. Z. Omirbekova, M. K. Gilmanov

Abstract:

Malate dehydrogenase-glutamate oxaloacetate aminotransferase (MDh-GOAT) enzyme complex (the EC) was isolated and purified from wheat and rise, their some main physicchemical properties were studied. Michael-s constants of the EC MDh-GOAT to malate, glutamate and NAD were investigated. This kinetic results show a high relationship to glutamate. Taking into account important role of the the EC in catabolism of glutamate – the central amino acid of a nitric exchange, there is a sharp necessity of deeper studying of this enzyme complex. Therefore the basic purpose of the work is studying the basic physical and chemical properties of this enzyme complex discovered by us, which would be very important for understanding the mechanisms of reaction catalyzed by the EC.

Keywords: Malate dehydrogenase-glutamate oxaloacetate aminotransferase, enzyme complex, glutamate.

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402 Enhanced Ant Colony Based Algorithm for Routing in Mobile Ad Hoc Network

Authors: Cauvery N. K., K. V. Viswanatha

Abstract:

Mobile Ad hoc network consists of a set of mobile nodes. It is a dynamic network which does not have fixed topology. This network does not have any infrastructure or central administration, hence it is called infrastructure-less network. The change in topology makes the route from source to destination as dynamic fixed and changes with respect to time. The nature of network requires the algorithm to perform route discovery, maintain route and detect failure along the path between two nodes [1]. This paper presents the enhancements of ARA [2] to improve the performance of routing algorithm. ARA [2] finds route between nodes in mobile ad-hoc network. The algorithm is on-demand source initiated routing algorithm. This is based on the principles of swarm intelligence. The algorithm is adaptive, scalable and favors load balancing. The improvements suggested in this paper are handling of loss ants and resource reservation.

Keywords: Ad hoc networks, On-demand routing, Swarmintelligence.

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401 Phenols and Manganese Removal from Landfill Leachate and Municipal Wastewater Using the Constructed Wetland

Authors: Amin Mojiri, Lou Ziyang

Abstract:

Constructed Wetland (CW) is a reasonable method to treat wastewater. Current study was carried out to co-treat landfill leachate and domestic wastewater using a CW system. Typha domingensis was transplanted to CW, which encloses two substrate layers of adsorbents named ZELIAC and zeolite. Response surface methodology and central composite design were employed to evaluate experimental data. Contact time (h) and leachate-towastewater mixing ratio (%; v/v) were selected as independent factors. Phenols and manganese removal were selected as dependent responses. At optimum contact time (48.7 h) and leachate-towastewater mixing ratio (20.0%), removal efficiencies of phenols and manganese removal efficiencies were 90.5%, and 89.4%, respectively.

Keywords: Constructed wetland, manganese, phenols, Thypha domingensis.

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400 A New Group Key Management Protocol for Wireless Ad-Hoc Networks

Authors: Rony H. Rahman, Lutfar Rahman

Abstract:

Ad hoc networks are characterized by multi-hop wireless connectivity and frequently changing network topology. Forming security association among a group of nodes in ad-hoc networks is more challenging than in conventional networks due to the lack of central authority, i.e. fixed infrastructure. With that view in mind, group key management plays an important building block of any secure group communication. The main contribution of this paper is a low complexity key management scheme that is suitable for fully self-organized ad-hoc networks. The protocol is also password authenticated, making it resilient against active attacks. Unlike other existing key agreement protocols, ours make no assumption about the structure of the underlying wireless network, making it suitable for “truly ad-hoc" networks. Finally, we will analyze our protocol to show the computation and communication burden on individual nodes for key establishment.

Keywords: Ad-hoc Networks, Group Key Management, Key Management Protocols, Password Authentication

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399 Eurasian Economic Integration: Eurasian Economic Community and Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Authors: Azhar E. Serikkaliyeva, Nurzhamal A. Aldabek

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to analyze economic and political tendencies of development of integration processes with different developing level and speed on the Eurasian space, by considering two organizations at the region – Eurasian Economic Community and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, by considering the interests of participations in organizations of Russia and China as a global powers and Kazakhstan as a leader among the Central Asian countries. This article investigates what certain goals Eurasian countries (especially Russia, Kazakhstan and China) are waiting from integration within the SCO and the EurAsEC, linking the process with the theories of regional integration. After European debt crisis it is more topically to research the integration within the specific region's conditions.

Keywords: Eurasian Economic Community, China, Kazakhstan, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Regional integration, Russia.

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398 Managing, Sustaining, and Future Proofing the Business of Educational Provision Following Large-Scale Disaster and Disruption

Authors: Judy Yarwood, Lesley Seaton, Philippa Seaton

Abstract:

A catastrophic earthquake measuring 6.3 on the Richter scale struck the Christchurch, New Zealand Central Business District on February 22, 2012, abruptly disrupting the business of teaching and learning at Christchurch Polytechnic Institute of Technology. This paper presents the findings from a study undertaken about the complexity of delivering an educational programme in the face of this traumatic natural event. Nine interconnected themes emerged from this multiple method study: communication, decision making, leader- and follower-ship, balancing personal and professional responsibilities, taking action, preparedness and thinking ahead, all within a disruptive and uncertain context. Sustainable responses that maximise business continuity, and provide solutions to practical challenges, are among the study-s recommendations.

Keywords: Business continuity, earthquake, education, sustainability

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397 Performance Analysis of Quantum Cascaded Lasers

Authors: M. B. El_Mashade, I. I. Mahamoud, M. S. El_Tokhy

Abstract:

Improving the performance of the QCL through block diagram as well as mathematical models is the main scope of this paper. In order to enhance the performance of the underlined device, the mathematical model parameters are used in a reliable manner in such a way that the optimum behavior was achieved. These parameters play the central role in specifying the optical characteristics of the considered laser source. Moreover, it is important to have a large amount of radiated power, where increasing the amount of radiated power represents the main hopping process that can be predicted from the behavior of quantum laser devices. It was found that there is a good agreement between the calculated values from our mathematical model and those obtained with VisSim and experimental results. These demonstrate the strength of mplementation of both mathematical and block diagram models.

Keywords: Quantum Cascaded Lasers (QCLs), Modeling, Block Diagram Programming, Intersubband transitions

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396 The Policy Improvement for Developing OTOP under the Context of Changing into ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)

Authors: Kawinphat Lertpongmanee

Abstract:

The development of One Tambon One Product (OTOP) became the policy of the government in 1997 after the former Prime Minister had been in power. The strategy of sections is currently set for the policy. OTOP has become the part of the way of community lives around the country. OTOP may be developed under changing into ASEAN economic community in 2015 because of the flow of capitals, productions, and many workers in the region. All sectors are improved for the change. The purposes of study were to study the strength and weakness of the OTOP-creating process via its policy and to lead to the strategy to be able to apply before changing. The methodology is qualitative to study its policy including document and to interview experienced persons. The findings showed that the effort of improvement of all sectors obviously involves with OTOP development. Particularly, the strategic administration of OTOP is in every level of the state, central sector, region, and community.

Keywords: ASEAN Economic Community – AEC, One Tambon One Product – OTOP.

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395 The Experience of Iranian Architecture in Direction of Urban Passages and Forming of Urban Structures to Increase Climatic Comfort

Authors: N. Utaberta, N. Sharifi, M. Surat, A. I. Che-Ani, N.M. Tawil

Abstract:

Iran has diverse climates and each have established distinct properties in their area. The extent and intensity of climatic factors effects on the lives of people living in various regions of Iran is so great that it cannot be simply ignored. In a large part of Iran known as the Central Plateau there is no precipitation for more than half of the year and dry weather and scarcity of fresh water pose an ever present problem for the people of these regions while in north of Iran upon the southern shores of the Caspian Sea the people face 80% humidity caused by the sea and 2 meters of annual precipitation. This article tries to review the past experiences of local architecture of Iran-s various regions so that they can be used to reshape and redirect the urban areas and structure of Iran-s current cities to provide environmental comfort by minimum use of fossil fuels.

Keywords: Urban Passage, Architecture in Iran, Urban Structure, Climatic Comfort

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394 Member Investment Willingness in Agricultural Cooperatives in Shaanxi (China)

Authors: Lijia Wang, Xuexi Huo

Abstract:

This study analyzes characteristics determining member’s willingness to invest in cooperatives using ordered logit model. The data were collected in a field survey among 122 cooperative members in north-central China. The descriptive analysis of survey evidence suggests that cooperatives in China generally having poor ability to deliver the processing services related to product package, grading, and storage, performing worse in profitability, inability of providing returns to capital and obtaining agricultural loan. The regression results demonstrate that members’ farm size, their satisfaction with cooperative price preferential services, attitudes toward cooperative operational scale and development potential have statistically significant impact on willingness to invest.

Keywords: Cooperatives, investment willingness, member, ordered logit.

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393 Homomorphic Conceptual Framework for Effective Supply Chain Strategy (HCEFSC) within Operational Research (OR) with Sustainability and Phenomenology

Authors: Al-Salamin Hussain, Elias O. Tembe

Abstract:

Supply chain (SC) is an operational research (OR) approach and technique which acts as catalyst within central nervous system of business today. Without SC, any type of business is at doldrums, hence entropy. SC is the lifeblood of business today because it is the pivotal hub which provides imperative competitive advantage. The paper present a conceptual framework dubbed as Homomorphic Conceptual Framework for Effective Supply Chain Strategy (HCEFSC).The term Homomorphic is derived from abstract algebraic mathematical term homomorphism (same shape) which also embeds the following mathematical application sets: monomorphisms, isomorphism, automorphisms, and endomorphism. The HCFESC is intertwined and integrated with wide and broad sets of elements.

Keywords: Automorphisms, Homomorphism, Monomorphisms, Supply Chain.

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392 Effects of the Stock Market Dynamic Linkages on the Central and Eastern European Capital Markets

Authors: Ioan Popa, Cristiana Tudor, Radu Lupu

Abstract:

The interdependences among stock market indices were studied for a long while by academics in the entire world. The current financial crisis opened the door to a wide range of opinions concerning the understanding and measurement of the connections considered to provide the controversial phenomenon of market integration. Using data on the log-returns of 17 stock market indices that include most of the CEE markets, from 2005 until 2009, our paper studies the problem of these dependences using a new methodological tool that takes into account both the volatility clustering effect and the stochastic properties of these linkages through a Dynamic Conditional System of Simultaneous Equations. We find that the crisis is well captured by our model as it provides evidence for the high volatility – high dependence effect.

Keywords: Stock market interdependences, Dynamic System ofSimultaneous Equations, financial crisis

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391 Modelling Export Dynamics in the CSEE Countries Using GVAR Model

Authors: S. Jakšić, B. Žmuk

Abstract:

The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spillover effects in the context of globalisation and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.

Keywords: Export, GFEVD, Global VAR, International trade, weak exogeneity.

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390 The Low-fertility problem in Hong Kong: Do Mainlanders- Births Help to Rejuvenate Low-fertility Problem?

Authors: Nancy, Ling Sze Leung

Abstract:

Hong Kong is one of the regions in the world where Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is very low. In 2001, the TFR dropped until 0.931, which means 1 woman even cannot give birth to one child on average. However, after the reformation of the 'Right of Abode of Hong Kong' in 2001 and the Chinese Central Government loosened the disembarkation procedure of mainland Chinese (mainlander) to enter Hong Kong in 2003; mainlander couples started to cross the border for giving births in Hong Kong. This action raises Hong Kong-s TFR quickly from 0.931 (2001) to 1.094 (2010). Usually, an increasing trend of TFR means a sign of rejuvenation in low-fertility, but in the case of Hong Kong, the increase of TFR does not, rather it generates other population problems. This paper is going to discuss do mainlanders- births help to solve the low-fertility problem in Hong Kong.

Keywords: Cross Border Birth, Low-fertility, Mainlander, Total Fertility Rate

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