Search results for: Site selection

Authors: Cigdem Safak Saglam

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Most thermal power plants use steam as working fluid in their power cycle. Therefore, in addition to fuel, water is the other main input for thermal plants. Water and steam must be highly pure in order to protect the systems from corrosion, scaling and biofouling. Pure process water is produced in water treatment plants having many several treatment methods. Treatment plant design is selected depending on raw water source and required water quality. Although working principle of fossil-fuel fired thermal power plants are same, there is no standard design and equipment arrangement valid for all thermal power plant utility systems. Besides that, there are many other technology evaluation and selection criteria for designing the most optimal water systems meeting the requirements such as local conditions, environmental restrictions, electricity and other consumables availability and transport, process water sources and scarcity, land use constraints etc. Aim of this study is explaining the adopted methodology for technology selection for process water preparation and industrial waste water treatment plant in a thermal power plant project located in Tufanbeyli, Adana Province in Turkey. Thermal power plant is fired with indigenous lignite coal extracted from adjacent lignite reserves. This paper addresses all above-mentioned factors affecting the thermal power plant water treatment facilities (demineralization + waste water treatment) design and describes the ultimate design of Tufanbeyli Thermal Power Plant Water Treatment Plant.

Keywords: Thermal power plant, lignite coal, pre-treatment, demineralization, electrodialysis, recycling, waste water, process water.

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Authors: David Calderón Villegas, Thomas Kalitzky

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Run-of-river (RoR) hydropower projects represent a viable, clean, and cost-effective alternative to dam-based plants and provide decentralized power production. However, RoR schemes’ cost-effectiveness depends on the proper selection of site and design flow, which is a challenging task because it requires multivariate analysis. In this respect, this study presents the development of an investment decision support tool for assessing the optimal size of an RoR scheme considering the technical, environmental, and cost constraints. The net present value (NPV) from a project perspective is used as an objective function for supporting the investment decision. The tool has been tested by applying it to an actual RoR project recently proposed in Colombia. The obtained results show that the optimum point in financial terms does not match the flow that maximizes energy generation from exploiting the river's available flow. For the case study, the flow that maximizes energy corresponds to a value of 5.1 m3/s. In comparison, an amount of 2.1 m3/s maximizes the investors NPV. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the NPV as a function of the debt rate changes and the electricity prices and the CapEx. Even for the worst-case scenario, the optimal size represents a positive business case with an NPV of 2.2 USD million and an internal rate of return (IRR) 1.5 times higher than the discount rate. 

Keywords: small hydropower, renewable energy, RoR schemes, optimal sizing, financial analysis

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Authors: I. Falconett, K. Nagasaka

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This study investigates the performance of radial basis function networks (RBFN) in forecasting the monthly CO2 emissions of an electric power utility. We also propose a method for input variable selection. This method is based on identifying the general relationships between groups of input candidates and the output. The effect that each input has on the forecasting error is examined by removing all inputs except the variable to be investigated from its group, calculating the networks parameter and performing the forecast. Finally, the new forecasting error is compared with the reference model. Eight input variables were identified as the most relevant, which is significantly less than our reference model with 30 input variables. The simulation results demonstrate that the model with the 8 inputs selected using the method introduced in this study performs as accurate as the reference model, while also being the most parsimonious.

Keywords: Correlation analysis, CO2 emissions forecasting, electric power utility, radial basis function networks.

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Authors: M. Padmavathi, R. M. Suresh

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Every machine plays roles of client and server simultaneously in a peer-to-peer (P2P) network. Though a P2P network has many advantages over traditional client-server models regarding efficiency and fault-tolerance, it also faces additional security threats. Users/IT administrators should be aware of risks from malicious code propagation, downloaded content legality, and P2P software’s vulnerabilities. Security and preventative measures are a must to protect networks from potential sensitive information leakage and security breaches. Bit Torrent is a popular and scalable P2P file distribution mechanism which successfully distributes large files quickly and efficiently without problems for origin server. Bit Torrent achieved excellent upload utilization according to measurement studies, but it also raised many questions as regards utilization in settings, than those measuring, fairness, and Bit Torrent’s mechanisms choice. This work proposed a block selection technique using Fuzzy ACO with optimal rules selected using ACO.

Keywords: Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Bit Torrent, Download time, Peer-to-Peer (P2P) network, Performance.

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Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

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A crucial part of maintaining a customer-oriented business in the telecommunications industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years, which has made it more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market. For those who are looking to turn over their service providers, understanding their needs is especially important. Predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining customers in the telecommunications industry. Machine learning can be used to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, Churn, Random Forest, Decision Tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score.

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

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The zero inflated models are usually used in modeling count data with excess zeros where the existence of the excess zeros could be structural zeros or zeros which occur by chance. These type of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences which involve sex and health dental epidemiology. The most popular zero inflated models used by many researchers are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial models. In addition, zero inflated generalized Poisson and zero inflated double Poisson models are also discussed and found in some literature. Recently zero inflated inverse trinomial model and zero inflated strict arcsine models are advocated and proven to serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed count data caused by excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The purpose of this paper is to review some related literature and provide a variety of examples from different disciplines in the application of zero inflated models. Different model selection methods used in model comparison are discussed.

Keywords: Overdispersed count data, model selection methods, likelihood ratio, AIC, BIC.

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Authors: S. Beyou, B. Grondin-Perez, M. Benne, C. Damour, J.-P. Chabriat

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The industrial process of the sugar cane crystallization produces a residual that still contains a lot of soluble sucrose and the objective of the factory is to improve its extraction. Therefore, there are substantial losses justifying the search for the optimization of the process. Crystallization process studied on the industrial site is based on the “three massecuites process". The third step of this process constitutes the final stage of exhaustion of the sucrose dissolved in the mother liquor. During the process of the third step of crystallization (Ccrystallization), the phase that is studied and whose control is to be improved, is the growing phase (crystal growth phase). The study of this process on the industrial site is a problem in its own. A control scheme is proposed to improve the standard PID control law used in the factory. An auto-tuning PID controller based on instantaneous linearization of a neural network is then proposed.

Keywords: Auto-tuning, PID, Instantaneous linearization, Neural network, Non linear process, C-crystallisation.

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Authors: G. S. Ayyappan, Srinivas Kota, Jaffer R. C. Sheriff, C. Prakash Chandra Joshua

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In the present scenario of energy crises, energy conservation in the electrical machines is very important in the industries. In order to conserve energy, one needs to monitor the performance of an induction motor on-site and in-situ. The instruments available for this purpose are very meager and very expensive. This paper deals with the design and development of induction motor performance analyser on-line, on-site, and in-situ. The system measures only few electrical input parameters like input voltage, line current, power factor, frequency, powers, and motor shaft speed. These measured data are coupled to name plate details and compute the operating efficiency of induction motor. This system employs the method of computing motor losses with the help of equivalent circuit parameters. The equivalent circuit parameters of the concerned motor are estimated using the developed algorithm at any load conditions and stored in the system memory. The developed instrument is a reliable, accurate, compact, rugged, and cost-effective one. This portable instrument could be used as a handy tool to study the performance of both slip ring and cage induction motors. During the analysis, the data can be stored in SD Memory card and one can perform various analyses like load vs. efficiency, torque vs. speed characteristics, etc. With the help of the developed instrument, one can operate the motor around its Best Operating Point (BOP). Continuous monitoring of the motor efficiency could lead to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of motors. LCA helps in taking decisions on motor replacement or retaining or refurbishment.

Keywords: Energy conservation, equivalent circuit parameters, induction motor efficiency, life cycle assessment, motor performance analysis.

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Authors: Cha-Hwa Lin, Je-Wei Hu

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The conventional GA combined with a local search algorithm, such as the 2-OPT, forms a hybrid genetic algorithm(HGA) for the traveling salesman problem (TSP). However, the geometric properties which are problem specific knowledge can be used to improve the search process of the HGA. Some tour segments (edges) of TSPs are fine while some maybe too long to appear in a short tour. This knowledge could constrain GAs to work out with fine tour segments without considering long tour segments as often. Consequently, a new algorithm is proposed, called intelligent-OPT hybrid genetic algorithm (IOHGA), to improve the GA and the 2-OPT algorithm in order to reduce the search time for the optimal solution. Based on the geometric properties, all the tour segments are assigned 2-level priorities to distinguish between good and bad genes. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the IOHGA. The experimental results indicate that in general the IOHGA could obtain near-optimal solutions with less time and better accuracy than the hybrid genetic algorithm with simulated annealing algorithm (HGA(SA)).

Keywords: Traveling salesman problem, hybrid geneticalgorithm, priority selection, 2-OPT.

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Authors: Li-Yeh Chuang, Yu-Jen Hou, Jr., Cheng-Hong Yang

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Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) hold much promise as a basis for disease-gene association. However, research is limited by the cost of genotyping the tremendous number of SNPs. Therefore, it is important to identify a small subset of informative SNPs, the so-called tag SNPs. This subset consists of selected SNPs of the genotypes, and accurately represents the rest of the SNPs. Furthermore, an effective evaluation method is needed to evaluate prediction accuracy of a set of tag SNPs. In this paper, a genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to tag SNP problems, and the K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) serves as a prediction method of tag SNP selection. The experimental data used was taken from the HapMap project; it consists of genotype data rather than haplotype data. The proposed method consistently identified tag SNPs with considerably better prediction accuracy than methods from the literature. At the same time, the number of tag SNPs identified was smaller than the number of tag SNPs in the other methods. The run time of the proposed method was much shorter than the run time of the SVM/STSA method when the same accuracy was reached.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm (GA), Genotype, Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), tag SNPs.

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Authors: Jung-Hyun Kim, Jihyung Kim, Kwangjae Lim, Dong Seung Kwon

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Network coding has recently attracted attention as an efficient technique in multicast/broadcast services. The problem of finding the optimal network coding mechanism maximizing the bandwidth efficiency is hard to solve and hard to approximate. Lots of network coding-based schemes have been suggested in the literature to improve the bandwidth efficiency, especially network coding-based automatic repeat request (NCARQ) schemes. However, existing schemes have several limitations which cause the performance degradation in resource limited systems. To improve the performance in resource limited systems, we propose NCARQ with overlapping selection (OS-NCARQ) scheme. The advantages of OS-NCARQ scheme over the traditional ARQ scheme and existing NCARQ schemes are shown through the analysis and simulations.

Keywords: ARQ, Network coding, Multicast/Broadcast services, Packet-based systems.

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Authors: Tao Shun, Xiao Xiangning, HadjSaid, N.

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In a liberalized electricity market, it is not surprising that different customers require different power quality (PQ) levels at different price. Power quality related to several power disturbances is described by many parameters, so how to define a comprehensive hierarchy evaluation system of power quality (PQCHES) has become a concerned issue. In this paper, based on four electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) levels, the numerical range of each power disturbance is divided into five grades (Grade I –Grade V), and the “barrel principle" of power quality is used for the assessment of overall PQ performance with only one grade indicator. A case study based on actual monitored data of PQ shows that the site PQ grade indicates the electromagnetic environment level and also expresses the characteristics of loads served by the site. The shortest plank principle of PQ barrel is an incentive mechanism, which can combine with the rewards/penalty mechanism (RPM) of consumed energy “on quality demand", to stimulate utilities to improve the overall PQ level and also stimulate end-user more “smart" under the infrastructure of future SmartGrid..

Keywords: Power quality, electromagnetic compatibility, SmartGrid, comprehensive evaluation, barrel principle, electricitymarket

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Authors: Azeem Ahmad, Magnus Goransson, Aamir Shahzad

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The selection of appropriate requirements for product releases can make a big difference in a product success. The selection of requirements is done by different requirements prioritization techniques. These techniques are based on pre-defined and systematic steps to calculate the requirements relative weight. Prioritization is complicated by new development settings, shifting from traditional co-located development to geographically distributed development. Stakeholders, connected to a project, are distributed all over the world. These geographically distributions of stakeholders make it hard to prioritize requirements as each stakeholder have their own perception and expectations of the requirements in a software project. This paper discusses limitations of the Analytical Hierarchy Process with respect to geographically distributed stakeholders- (GDS) prioritization of requirements. This paper also provides a solution, in the form of a modified AHP, in order to prioritize requirements for GDS. We will conduct two experiments in this paper and will analyze the results in order to discuss AHP limitations with respect to GDS. The modified AHP variant is also validated in this paper.

Keywords: Requirements Prioritization, GeographicallyDistributed Stakeholders, AHP, Modified AHP.

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Authors: N. Moghadam, H. Sadeghi

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In this paper a novel scheme for watermarking digital audio during its compression to MPEG-1 Layer III format is proposed. For this purpose we slightly modify some of the selected MDCT coefficients, which are used during MPEG audio compression procedure. Due to the possibility of modifying different MDCT coefficients, there will be different choices for embedding the watermark into audio data, considering robustness and transparency factors. Our proposed method uses a genetic algorithm to select the best coefficients to embed the watermark. This genetic selection is done according to the parameters that are extracted from the perceptual content of the audio to optimize the robustness and transparency of the watermark. On the other hand the watermark security is increased due to the random nature of the genetic selection. The information of the selected MDCT coefficients that carry the watermark bits, are saves in a database for future extraction of the watermark. The proposed method is suitable for online MP3 stores to pursue illegal copies of musical artworks. Experimental results show that the detection ratio of the watermarks at the bitrate of 128kbps remains above 90% while the inaudibility of the watermark is preserved.

Keywords: Content-Based Audio Watermarking, Genetic AudioWatermarking.

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Authors: Surendran M, Palani G. S, Nagesh R. Iyer

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Multi-site damage (MSD) has been a challenge to aircraft, civil and power plant structures. In real life components are subjected to cracking at many vulnerable locations such as the bolt holes. However, we do not consider for the presence of multiple cracks. Unlike components with a single crack, these components are difficult to predict. When two cracks approach one another, their stress fields influence each other and produce enhancing or shielding effect depending on the position of the cracks. In the present study, numerical studies on fracture analysis have been conducted by using the developed code based on the modified virtual crack closure integral (MVCCI) technique and finite element analysis (FEA) software ABAQUS for computing SIF of plates with multiple cracks. Various parametric studies have been carried out and the results have been compared with literature where ever available and also with the solution, obtained by using ABAQUS. By conducting extensive numerical studies expressions for SIF have been obtained for collinear cracks and non-aligned cracks.

Keywords: Crack interaction, Fracture mechanics, Multiple site damage, stress intensity factor, collinear cracks, non-aligned cracks.

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Authors: M. F. Yilmaz, B. Ö. Çağlayan

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Fragility curve is an effective common used tool to determine the earthquake performance of structural and nonstructural components. Also, it is used to determine the nonlinear behavior of bridges. There are many historical bridges in the Turkish railway network; the earthquake performances of these bridges are needed to be investigated. To derive fragility curve Intensity measures (IMs) and Engineering demand parameters (EDP) are needed to be determined. And the relation between IMs and EDP are needed to be derived. In this study, a typical simply supported steel girder riveted railway bridge is studied. Fragility curves of this bridge are derived by two parameters lognormal distribution. Time history analyses are done for selected 60 real earthquake data to determine the relation between IMs and EDP. Moreover, efficiency, practicality, and sufficiency of three different IMs are discussed. PGA, Sa(0.2s) and Sa(1s), the most common used IMs parameters for fragility curve in the literature, are taken into consideration in terms of efficiency, practicality and sufficiency.

Keywords: Railway bridges, earthquake performance, fragility analyses, selection of intensity measures.

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Authors: Holger Keitel

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The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.

Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.

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Authors: Mohammad Taghi Taghavifard, Danial Mirheydari

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This paper suggests an algorithm for the evaluation and selection of suppliers. At the beginning, all the needed materials and services used by the organization were identified and categorized with regard to their nature by ABC method. Afterwards, in order to reduce risk factors and maximize the organization's profit, purchase strategies were determined. Then, appropriate criteria were identified for primary evaluation of suppliers applying to the organization. The output of this stage was a list of suppliers qualified by the organization to participate in its tenders. Subsequently, considering a material in particular, appropriate criteria on the ordering of the mentioned material were determined, taking into account the particular materials' specifications as well as the organization's needs. Finally, for the purpose of validation and verification of the proposed model, it was applied to Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC), the qualified suppliers of this Company are ranked by the means of a Hierarchical Fuzzy TOPSIS method. The obtained results show that the proposed algorithm is quite effective, efficient and easy to apply.

Keywords: ABC analysis, Hierarchical Fuzzy TOPSIS, Primary supplier evaluation, Purchasing strategy, supplier selection

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Authors: G.Kavitha, V.Sankaranarayanan

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Grid computing provides a virtual framework for controlled sharing of resources across institutional boundaries. Recently, trust has been recognised as an important factor for selection of optimal resources in a grid. We introduce a new method that provides a quantitative trust value, based on the past interactions and present environment characteristics. This quantitative trust value is used to select a suitable resource for a job and eliminates run time failures arising from incompatible user-resource pairs. The proposed work will act as a tool to calculate the trust values of the various components of the grid and there by improves the success rate of the jobs submitted to the resource on the grid. The access to a resource not only depend on the identity and behaviour of the resource but also upon its context of transaction, time of transaction, connectivity bandwidth, availability of the resource and load on the resource. The quality of the recommender is also evaluated based on the accuracy of the feedback provided about a resource. The jobs are submitted for execution to the selected resource after finding the overall trust value of the resource. The overall trust value is computed with respect to the subjective and objective parameters.

Keywords: access control, feedback, grid computing, reputation, security, trust, trust parameter.

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Authors: R. A. Salam, M.A. Rodrigues

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The number of features required to represent an image can be very huge. Using all available features to recognize objects can suffer from curse dimensionality. Feature selection and extraction is the pre-processing step of image mining. Main issues in analyzing images is the effective identification of features and another one is extracting them. The mining problem that has been focused is the grouping of features for different shapes. Experiments have been conducted by using shape outline as the features. Shape outline readings are put through normalization and dimensionality reduction process using an eigenvector based method to produce a new set of readings. After this pre-processing step data will be grouped through their shapes. Through statistical analysis, these readings together with peak measures a robust classification and recognition process is achieved. Tests showed that the suggested methods are able to automatically recognize objects through their shapes. Finally, experiments also demonstrate the system invariance to rotation, translation, scale, reflection and to a small degree of distortion.

Keywords: Image mining, feature selection, shape recognition, peak measures.

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Authors: M. A. Hasan, M. R. Islam, R. A. Tarefder

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This study investigates how the site specific traffic data differs from the Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Software default values. Two Weigh-in-Motion (WIM) stations were installed in Interstate-40 (I-40) and Interstate-25 (I-25) to developed site specific data. A computer program named WIM Data Analysis Software (WIMDAS) was developed using Microsoft C-Sharp (.Net) for quality checking and processing of raw WIM data. A complete year data from November 2013 to October 2014 was analyzed using the developed WIM Data Analysis Program. After that, the vehicle class distribution, directional distribution, lane distribution, monthly adjustment factor, hourly distribution, axle load spectra, average number of axle per vehicle, axle spacing, lateral wander distribution, and wheelbase distribution were calculated. Then a comparative study was done between measured data and AASHTOWare default values. It was found that the measured general traffic inputs for I-40 and I-25 significantly differ from the default values.

Keywords: AASHTOWare, Traffic, Weigh-in-Motion, Axle load Distribution.

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Authors: Amudha Kadirvelu, Sunil Gurtu, Sivalal Sadasivan

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Pharmacology curriculum plays an integral role in medical education. Learning pharmacology to choose and prescribe drugs is a major challenge encountered by students. We developed pharmacology applied learning activities for first year medical students that included realistic clinical situations with escalating complications which required the students to analyze the situation and think critically to choose a safe drug. Tutor feedback was provided at the end of session. Evaluation was done to assess the students- level of interest and usefulness of the sessions in rational selection of drugs. Majority (98 %) of the students agreed that the session was an extremely useful learning exercise and agreed that similar sessions would help in rational selection of drugs. Applied learning sessions in the early years of medical program may promote deep learning and bridge the gap between pharmacology theory and clinical practice. Besides, it may also enhance safe prescribing skills.

Keywords: Medical education, pharmacology curriculum, applied learning, safe prescribing.

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Authors: Majid Yazdandoust

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This study, tries to suggest a design method based on displacement using finite difference numerical modeling in reinforcing soil retaining wall with steel strip. In this case, dynamic loading characteristics such as duration, frequency, peak ground acceleration, geometrical characteristics of reinforced soil structure and type of the site are considered to correct the pseudo static method and finally introduce the pseudo static coefficient as a function of seismic performance level and peak ground acceleration. For this purpose, the influence of dynamic loading characteristics, reinforcement length, height of reinforced system and type of the site are investigated on seismic behavior of reinforcing soil retaining wall with steel strip. Numerical results illustrate that the seismic response of this type of wall is highly dependent to cumulative absolute velocity, maximum acceleration, and height and reinforcement length so that the reinforcement length can be introduced as the main factor in shape of failure. Considering the loading parameters, geometric parameters of the wall and type of the site showed that the used method in this study leads to efficient designs in comparison with other methods, which are usually based on limit-equilibrium concept. The outputs show the over-estimation of equilibrium design methods in comparison with proposed displacement based methods here.

Keywords: Pseudo static coefficient, seismic performance design, numerical modeling, steel strip reinforcement, retaining walls, cumulative absolute velocity, failure shape.

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Authors: Roopam Gaur, K. Chandramani Singh, Radhapiyari Laishram

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In order to produce lead free piezoceramics with optimum piezoelectric and dielectric properties, KNN modified with Li+ (as an A site dopant) and Sb5+ (as a B site dopant) (K0.49Na0.49Li0.02) (Nb0.96Sb0.04) O3 (referred as KNLNS in this paper) have been synthesized using solid state reaction method and conventional sintering technique. The ceramics were sintered in the narrow range of 1050°C-1090°C for 2-3 h to get precise information about sintering parameters. Detailed study of dependence of microstructural, dielectric and piezoelectric properties on sintering conditions was then carried out. The study suggests that the volatility of the highly hygroscopic KNN ceramics is not only sensitive to sintering temperatures but also to sintering durations. By merely reducing the sintering duration for a given sintering temperature we saw an increase in the density of the samples which was supported by the increase in dielectric constants of the ceramics. And since density directly or indirectly affects almost all the associated properties, other dielectric and piezoelectric properties were also enhanced as we approached towards the most suitable sintering temperature and duration combination. The detailed results are reported in this paper.

Keywords: Piezoceramics, Conventional Sintering, KNN, Lead Free.

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Authors: H. Zarei, M. H. Fazel Zarandi, M. Karbasian

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A Decision Support System/Expert System for stock portfolio selection presented where at first step, both technical and fundamental data used to estimate technical and fundamental return and risk (1st phase); Then, the estimated values are aggregated with the investor preferences (2nd phase) to produce convenient stock portfolio. In the 1st phase, there are two expert systems, each of which is responsible for technical or fundamental estimation. In the technical expert system, for each stock, twenty seven candidates are identified and with using rough sets-based clustering method (RC) the effective variables have been selected. Next, for each stock two fuzzy rulebases are developed with fuzzy C-Mean method and Takai-Sugeno- Kang (TSK) approach; one for return estimation and the other for risk. Thereafter, the parameters of the rule-bases are tuned with backpropagation method. In parallel, for fundamental expert systems, fuzzy rule-bases have been identified in the form of “IF-THEN" rules through brainstorming with the stock market experts and the input data have been derived from financial statements; as a result two fuzzy rule-bases have been generated for all the stocks, one for return and the other for risk. In the 2nd phase, user preferences represented by four criteria and are obtained by questionnaire. Using an expert system, four estimated values of return and risk have been aggregated with the respective values of user preference. At last, a fuzzy rule base having four rules, treats these values and produce a ranking score for each stock which will lead to a satisfactory portfolio for the user. The stocks of six manufacturing companies and the period of 2003-2006 selected for data gathering.

Keywords: Stock Portfolio Selection, Fuzzy Rule-Base ExpertSystems, Financial Decision Support Systems, Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis.

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Authors: C. Ardil

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Aircraft have different capabilities and specifications according to the required strategic goals and objectives in operations. With various types on the market with different aircraft characteristics, it becomes difficult to select a suitable aircraft for certain operations and requirements. The entropy weighting method (EWM) is a useful, highly consistent, and reliable method for obtaining the weights of the criteria and is worth integrating with the decision uncertainty distance (DUD) method, which is more applicable and requires less computation than other methods. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the validity and usability of the proposed methodology. Comparing the ranking results matches the distance-based approach, which is the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, which shows the robustness of the entropy DUD hybrid method. Validity analysis shows that the proposed hybrid multiple criteria decision-making analysis (MCDMA) methodology is quantitatively stable and reliable.

Keywords: aircraft selection, decision uncertainty distance (DUD), multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS

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Authors: D.Venkatesan, K.Kannan, S. Raja Balachandar

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In this paper a new Genetic Algorithm based on a heuristic operator and Centre of Mass selection operator (CMGA) is designed for the unbounded knapsack problem(UKP), which is NP-Hard combinatorial optimization problem. The proposed genetic algorithm is based on a heuristic operator, which utilizes problem specific knowledge. This center of mass operator when combined with other Genetic Operators forms a competitive algorithm to the existing ones. Computational results show that the proposed algorithm is capable of obtaining high quality solutions for problems of standard randomly generated knapsack instances. Comparative study of CMGA with simple GA in terms of results for unbounded knapsack instances of size up to 200 show the superiority of CMGA. Thus CMGA is an efficient tool of solving UKP and this algorithm is competitive with other Genetic Algorithms also.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Unbounded Knapsack Problem, Combinatorial Optimization, Meta-Heuristic, Center of Mass

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Authors: Mussa I. Mgwatu, Reuben R. M. Kainkwa

Abstract:

Wind is among the potential energy resources which can be harnessed to generate wind energy for conversion into electrical power. Due to the variability of wind speed with time and height, it becomes difficult to predict the generated wind energy more optimally. In this paper, an attempt is made to establish a probabilistic model fitting the wind speed data recorded at Makambako site in Tanzania. Wind speeds and direction were respectively measured using anemometer (type AN1) and wind Vane (type WD1) both supplied by Delta-T-Devices at a measurement height of 2 m. Wind speeds were then extrapolated for the height of 10 m using power law equation with an exponent of 0.47. Data were analysed using MINITAB statistical software to show the variability of wind speeds with time and height, and to determine the underlying probability model of the extrapolated wind speed data. The results show that wind speeds at Makambako site vary cyclically over time; and they conform to the Weibull probability distribution. From these results, Weibull probability density function can be used to predict the wind energy.

Keywords: Probabilistic models, wind speed, wind energy

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

The decision to select an unmanned combat aircraft is complicated since several options and conflicting criteria must be considered at simultaneously. When making multiple criteria decision, it is important to consider the selected evaluation criteria, including priceability, payloadability, stealthability, speedability , and survivability. The fundamental goal of the study is to select the best unmanned combat aircraft by taking these evaluation criteria into account. The optimal aircraft was chosen using the fuzzy proximity measure method, which enables decision-makers to designate preferences as standard fuzzy set numbers during the multiple criteria decision-making process. To assess the applicability of the proposed approach, a numerical example is provided. Finally, by comparing determined unmanned combat aircraft, the proposed method produced a successful application, and the best aircraft was selected.

Keywords: standard fuzzy sets (SFS), unmanned combat aircraft selection, multiple criteria decision making (MCDM), multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM), proximity measure method (PMM)

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Authors: Jeff Clarine, Chang-Shyh Peng, Daisy Sang

Abstract:

Bioassay is the measurement of the potency of a chemical substance by its effect on a living animal or plant tissue. Bioassay data and chemical structures from pharmacokinetic and drug metabolism screening are mined from and housed in multiple databases. Bioassay prediction is calculated accordingly to determine further advancement. This paper proposes a four-step preprocessing of datasets for improving the bioassay predictions. The first step is instance selection in which dataset is categorized into training, testing, and validation sets. The second step is discretization that partitions the data in consideration of accuracy vs. precision. The third step is normalization where data are normalized between 0 and 1 for subsequent machine learning processing. The fourth step is feature selection where key chemical properties and attributes are generated. The streamlined results are then analyzed for the prediction of effectiveness by various machine learning algorithms including Pipeline Pilot, R, Weka, and Excel. Experiments and evaluations reveal the effectiveness of various combination of preprocessing steps and machine learning algorithms in more consistent and accurate prediction.

Keywords: Bioassay, machine learning, preprocessing, virtual screen.

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