Search results for: Scenario Analysis

Authors: Mohamed Ghorab

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Local generated and distributed system for thermal and electrical energy is sighted in the near future to reduce transmission losses instead of the centralized system. Distributed Energy Resources (DER) is designed at different sizes (small and medium) and it is incorporated in energy distribution between the hubs. The energy generated from each technology at each hub should meet the local energy demands. Economic and environmental enhancement can be achieved when there are interaction and energy exchange between the hubs. Network energy system and CO₂ optimization between different six hubs presented Canadian community level are investigated in this study. Three different scenarios of technology systems are studied to meet both thermal and electrical demand loads for the six hubs. The conventional system is used as the first technology system and a reference case study. The conventional system includes boiler to provide the thermal energy, but the electrical energy is imported from the utility grid. The second technology system includes combined heat and power (CHP) system to meet the thermal demand loads and part of the electrical demand load. The third scenario has integration systems of CHP and Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) where the thermal waste energy from the CHP system is used by ORC to generate electricity. General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) is used to model DER system optimization based on energy economics and CO₂ emission analyses. The results are compared with the conventional energy system. The results show that scenarios 2 and 3 provide an annual total cost saving of 21.3% and 32.3 %, respectively compared to the conventional system (scenario 1). Additionally, Scenario 3 (CHP & ORC systems) provides 32.5% saving in CO₂ emission compared to conventional system subsequent case 2 (CHP system) with a value of 9.3%.  

Keywords: Distributed energy resources, network energy system, optimization, microgeneration system.

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Authors: M. Aslam, Farrukh, A. R. Gardezi, Nasir Hayat

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Automated material handling is given prime importance in the semi automated and automated facilities since it provides solution to the gigantic problems related to inventory and also support the latest philosophies like just in time production JIT and lean production. Automated storage and retrieval system is an antidote (if designed properly) to the facility sufferings like getting the right material , materials getting perished, long cycle times or many other similar kind of problems. A working model of automated storage and retrieval system (AS/RS) is designed and developed under the design parameters specified by Material Handling Industry of America (MHIA). Later on analysis was carried out to calculate the throughput and size of the machine. The possible implementation of this technology in local scenario is also discussed in this paper.

Keywords: Automated storage and retrieval system (AS/RS), Material handling, Computer integrated manufacturing (CIM), Lightdependent resistor (LDR)

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Authors: A. Balbo, G. Colucci, M. Nicoli, L. Savoldi

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Hydrogen is expected to become an undisputed player in the ecological transition throughout the next decades. The decarbonization potential offered by this energy vector provides various opportunities for the so-called “hard-to-abate” sectors, including industrial production of iron and steel, glass, refineries and the heavy-duty transport. In this regard, Italy, in the framework of decarbonization plans for the whole European Union, has been considering a wider use of hydrogen to provide an alternative to fossil fuels in hard-to-abate sectors. This work aims to assess and compare different options concerning the pathway to be followed in the development of the future Italian energy system in order to meet decarbonization targets as established by the Paris Agreement and by the European Green Deal, and to infer a techno-economic analysis of the required asset alternatives to be used in that perspective. To accomplish this objective, the Energy System Optimization Model TEMOA-Italy is used, based on the open-source platform TEMOA and developed at PoliTo as a tool to be used for technology assessment and energy scenario analysis. The adopted assessment strategy includes two different scenarios to be compared with a business-as-usual one, which considers the application of current policies in a time horizon up to 2050. The studied scenarios are based on the up-to-date hydrogen-related targets and planned investments included in the National Hydrogen Strategy and in the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan, with the purpose of providing a critical assessment of what they propose. One scenario imposes decarbonization objectives for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050, without any other specific target. The second one (inspired to the national objectives on the development of the sector) promotes the deployment of the hydrogen value-chain. These scenarios provide feedback about the applications hydrogen could have in the Italian energy system, including transport, industry and synfuels production. Furthermore, the decarbonization scenario where hydrogen production is not imposed, will make use of this energy vector as well, showing the necessity of its exploitation in order to meet pledged targets by 2050. The distance of the planned policies from the optimal conditions for the achievement of Italian objectives is clarified, revealing possible improvements of various steps of the decarbonization pathway, which seems to have as a fundamental element Carbon Capture and Utilization technologies for its accomplishment. In line with the European Commission open science guidelines, the transparency and the robustness of the presented results are ensured by the adoption of the open-source open-data model such as the TEMOA-Italy.

Keywords: Decarbonization, energy system optimization models, hydrogen, open-source modeling, TEMOA.

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Authors: Soran Tarkhani

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The phenomenon of significant Arab support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, despite widespread condemnation from Arab leaders, poses a puzzling scenario. This paper delves into the paradox by employing multiple regression analysis on the online reactions of Arab audiences to the conflict as reported by seven major news networks: CNN Arabic, BBC Arabic, Sky News Arabic, France24 Arabic, DW, Aljazeera, and Al-Arabiya. It hypothesizes that this support stems from prevalent anti-Western sentiment within the Arab world. The empirical findings corroborate the hypothesis, providing insight into the underlying motivations for Arab backing of Russia against Ukraine, despite their historical familiarity with the harsh realities of war.

Keywords: Anti-Western Sentiment, Arab World, Russia-Ukraine Conflict, social media analysis, political sentiment, international relations, regional influence.

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Authors: Mallikarjun B. Channappagoudar, Pallapa Venkataram

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As a node monitoring protocol, which is a part of network management, operates in distributed manner, conformance testing of such protocols is more tedious than testing a peer-to-peer protocol. Various works carried out to give the methodology to do conformance testing of distributed protocol. In this paper, we have presented a formal approach for conformance testing of a Node Monitoring Protocol, which uses both static and mobile agents, for MANETs. First, we use SDL to obtain MSCs, which represent the scenario descriptions by sequence diagrams, which in turn generate test sequences and test cases. Later, Testing and Test Control Notation Version-3 (TTCN-3) is used to execute test cases with respect to generated test sequences to know the conformance of protocol against the given specification. This approach shows, the effective conformance testing of the distributed protocols for the network with varying node density and complex behavior. Experimental results for the protocol scenario represent the effectiveness of the method used.

Keywords: Conformance Testing, FSM, Mobile agent, TTCN, Test sequence.

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Authors: Ghassan A. Abed, Bayan M. Sabbar

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The society of 3^rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) is completed developing Long Term Evolution Advanced (LTE-Advanced) systems as a standard 4G cellular system. This generation goals to produce conditions for a new radio-access technology geared to higher data rates, low latency, and better spectral efficiency. LTE-Advanced is an evolutionary step in the continuing development of LTE where the description in this article is based on LTE release 10. This paper provides a model of the traffic links of 4G system represented by LTE-Advanced system with the effect of the Transmission Control Protocols (TCP) and Stream Control Transmission Protocol (SCTP) in term of throughput and packet loss. Furthermore, the article presents the investigation and the analysis the behavior of SCTP and TCP variants over the 4G cellular systems. The traffic model and the scenario of the simulation developed using the network simulator NS-2 using different TCP source variants.

Keywords: LTE-Advanced, LTE, SCTP, TCP, 4G, NS-2.

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Authors: Armando Cartenì, Ilaria Henke

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Recently, the Italian government has approved a new law for public contracts and has been laying the groundwork for restarting a planning phase. The government has adopted the indications given by the European Commission regarding the estimation of the external costs within the Cost-Benefit Analysis, and has been approved the ‘Guidelines for assessment of Investment Projects’. In compliance with the new Italian law, the aim of this research was to perform a feasibility study applying quantitative methods regarding the revamping of an Italian tourist railway line. A Cost-Benefit Analysis was performed starting from the quantification of the passengers’ demand potentially interested in using the revamped rail services. The benefits due to the external costs reduction were also estimated (quantified) in terms of variations (with respect to the not project scenario): climate change, air pollution, noises, congestion, and accidents. Estimations results have been proposed in terms of the Measure of Effectiveness underlying a positive Net Present Value equal to about 27 million of Euros, an Internal Rate of Return much greater the discount rate, a benefit/cost ratio equal to 2 and a PayBack Period of 15 years.

Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, evaluation analysis, demand management, external cost, transport planning, quality.

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Authors: Yehuda Roth

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In quantum theory, a system’s time evolution is predictable unless an observer performs measurement, as the measurement process can randomize the system. This randomness appears when the measuring device does not accurately describe the measured item, i.e., when the states characterizing the measuring device appear as a superposition of those being measured. When such a mismatch occurs, the measured data randomly collapse into a single eigenstate of the measuring device. This  scenario resembles the interpretation process in which the observer does not experience an objective reality but interprets it based on preliminary descriptions initially ingrained into his/her mind. This distinction is the motivation for the present study in which the collapse scenario is regarded as part of the interpretation process of the observer. By adopting the formalism of the quantum theory, we present a complete mathematical approach that describes the interpretation process. We demonstrate this process by applying the proposed interpretation formalism to the ambiguous image "My wife and mother-in-law" to identify whether a woman in the picture is young or old.

Keywords: Interpretation, ambiguous images, data reception, state matching, classification, determination.

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Authors: M. N. Akhtar, J. N. Akhtar

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The present study evaluates the properties of class F fly ash as a replacement of natural materials in civil engineering construction industry. The low-lime flash similar to class F is the prime variety generated in India, although it has significantly smaller volumes of high-lime fly ash as compared to class C. The chemical and physical characterization of the sample is carried out with the number of experimental approaches in order to investigate all relevant features present in the samples. For chemical analysis, elementary quantitative results from point analysis and scanning electron microscopy (SEM)/dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) techniques were used to identify the element images of different fractions. The physical properties found very close to the range of common soils. Furthermore, the fly ash-based bricks were prepared by the same sample of class F fly ash and the results of compressive strength similar to that of Standard Clay Brick Grade 1 available in the local market of India.

Keywords: Flyash, class F, class C, chemical, physical, SEM, EDS.

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Authors: Jiří Barta, Oldřich Svoboda, Jiří. F. Urbánek

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In this paper will be discussed two coin´s sides of crisis scenarios dynamics. On the one's side is negative role of subsidiary scenario branches in its compactness weakening by means unduly chaotic atomizing, having many interactive feedbacks cases, increasing a value of a complexity here. This negative role reflects the complexity of use cases, weakening leader compliancy, which brings something as a ´readiness for controlling capabilities provision´. Leader´s dissatisfaction has zero compliancy, but factual it is a ´crossbar´ (interface in fact) between planning and executing use cases. On the other side of this coin, an advantage of rich scenarios embranchment is possible to see in a support of response awareness, readiness, preparedness, adaptability, creativity and flexibility. Here rich scenarios embranchment contributes to the steadiness and resistance of scenario mission actors. These all will be presented in live power-points ´Blazons´, modelled via DYVELOP (Dynamic Vector Logistics of Processes) on the Conference.

Keywords: Leadership, Controlling, Complexity, DYVELOP, Scenarios.

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Authors: U K Chakrabarti, Jigisha Parikh

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Hazardous Material transportation by road is coupled with inherent risk of accidents causing loss of lives, grievous injuries, property losses and environmental damages. The most common type of hazmat road accident happens to be the releases (78%) of hazardous substances, followed by fires (28%), explosions (14%) and vapour/ gas clouds (6 %.). The paper is discussing initially the probable 'Impact Zones' likely to be caused by one flammable (LPG) and one toxic (ethylene oxide) chemicals being transported through a sizable segment of a State Highway connecting three notified Industrial zones in Surat district in Western India housing 26 MAH industrial units. Three 'hotspots' were identified along the highway segment depending on the particular chemical traffic and the population distribution within 500 meters on either sides. The thermal radiation and explosion overpressure have been calculated for LPG / Ethylene Oxide BLEVE scenarios along with toxic release scenario for ethylene oxide. Besides, the dispersion calculations for ethylene oxide toxic release have been made for each 'hotspot' location and the impact zones have been mapped for the LOC concentrations. Subsequently, the maximum Initial Isolation and the protective zones were calculated based on ERPG-3 and ERPG-2 values of ethylene oxide respectively which are estimated taking the worst case scenario under worst weather conditions. The data analysis will be helpful to the local administration in capacity building with respect to rescue / evacuation and medical preparedness and quantitative inputs to augment the District Offsite Emergency Plan document.

Keywords: Hotspot, Ethylene Oxide, LPG, MAH (MajorAccident Hazard).

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Authors: K. N. Dinesh Babu, P. K. Gargava

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Energization of a transformer results in sudden flow of current which is an effect of core magnetization. This current will be dominated by the presence of second harmonic, which in turn is used to segregate fault and inrush current, thus guaranteeing proper operation of the relay. This additional security in the relay sometimes obstructs or delays differential protection in a specific scenario, when the 2^nd harmonic content was present during a genuine fault. This kind of scenario can result in isolation of the transformer by Buchholz and pressure release valve (PRV) protection, which is acted when fault creates more damage in transformer. Such delays involve a huge impact on the insulation failure, and chances of repairing or rectifying fault of problem at site become very dismal. Sometimes this delay can cause fire in the transformer, and this situation becomes havoc for a sub-station. Such occurrences have been observed in field also when differential relay operation was delayed by 10-15 ms by second harmonic blocking in some specific conditions. These incidences have led to the need for an alternative solution to eradicate such unwarranted delay in operation in future. Modern numerical relay, called as intelligent electronic device (IED), is embedded with advanced protection features which permit higher flexibility and better provisions for tuning of protection logic and settings. Such flexibility in transformer protection IEDs, enables incorporation of alternative methods such as dynamic switching of second harmonic feature for blocking the differential protection with additional security. The analysis and precautionary measures carried out in this case, have been simulated and discussed in this paper to ensure that similar solutions can be adopted to inhibit analogous issues in future.

Keywords: Differential protection, intelligent electronic device (IED), 2nd harmonic, inrush inhibit.

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Authors: Abraham Varghese, Kannan Balakrishnan, Reji R. Varghese, Joseph S. Paul

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Magnetic Resonance Imaging play a vital role in the decision-diagnosis process of brain MR images. For an accurate diagnosis of brain related problems, the experts mostly compares both T1 and T2 weighted images as the information presented in these two images are complementary. In this paper, rotational and translational invariant form of Local binary Pattern (LBP) with additional gray scale information is used to retrieve similar slices of T1 weighted images from T2 weighted images or vice versa. The incorporation of additional gray scale information on LBP can extract more local texture information. The accuracy of retrieval can be improved by extracting moment features of LBP and reweighting the features based on users feedback. Here retrieval is done in a single subject scenario where similar images of a particular subject at a particular level are retrieved, and multiple subjects scenario where relevant images at a particular level across the subjects are retrieved.

Keywords: Local Binary pattern (LBP), Modified Local Binary pattern (MOD-LBP), T1 and T2 weighted images, Moment features.

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Authors: Alexander J. Severinsky, Allen L. Sessoms

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Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has dominated the discussion around the causes of climate change. This is a reflection of a 100-year time horizon for all greenhouse gases that became a norm.  The 100-year time horizon is much too long – and yet, almost all mitigation efforts, including those set in the near-term frame of within 30 years, are still geared toward it. In this paper, we show that for a 30-year time horizon, methane (CH4) is the greenhouse gas whose radiative forcing exceeds that of CO2. In our analysis, we use the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, because they directly affect the rise in temperature on Earth. We found that in 2019, the radiative forcing (RF) of methane was ~2.5 W/m2 and that of carbon dioxide was ~2.1 W/m2. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario until 2050, such forcing would be ~2.8 W/m2 and ~3.1 W/m2 respectively. There is a substantial spread in the data for anthropogenic and natural methane (CH4) emissions, along with natural gas, (which is primarily CH4), leakages from industrial production to consumption. For this reason, we estimate the minimum and maximum effects of a reduction of these leakages, and assume an effective immediate reduction by 80%. Such action may serve to reduce the annual radiative forcing of all CH4 emissions by ~15% to ~30%. This translates into a reduction of RF by 2050 from ~2.8 W/m2 to ~2.5 W/m2 in the case of the minimum effect that can be expected, and to ~2.15 W/m2 in the case of the maximum effort to reduce methane leakages. Under the BAU, we find that the RF of CO2 will increase from ~2.1 W/m2 now to ~3.1 W/m2 by 2050. We assume a linear reduction of 50% in anthropogenic emission over the course of the next 30 years, which would reduce the radiative forcing of CO2 from ~3.1 W/m2 to ~2.9 W/m2. In the case of "net zero," the other 50% of only anthropogenic CO2 emissions reduction would be limited to being either from sources of emissions or directly from the atmosphere. In this instance, the total reduction would be from ~3.1 W/m2 to ~2.7 W/m2, or ~0.4 W/m2. To achieve the same radiative forcing as in the scenario of maximum reduction of methane leakages of ~2.15 W/m2, an additional reduction of radiative forcing of CO2 would be approximately 2.7 -2.15 = 0.55 W/m2. In total, one would need to remove ~660 GT of CO2 from the atmosphere in order to match the maximum reduction of current methane leakages, and ~270 GT of CO2 from emitting sources, to reach "negative emissions". This amounts to over 900 GT of CO2.

Keywords: Methane Leakages, Methane Radiative Forcing, Methane Mitigation, Methane Net Zero.

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Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

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In an era where machines run and shape our world, the need for a stable, non-ending source of energy emerges. In this study, the focus was on the solar energy in Egypt as a renewable source, the most important factors that could affect the solar energy’s market share throughout its life cycle production were analyzed and filtered, the relationships between them were derived before structuring a Bayesian network. Also, forecasted models were built for multiple factors to predict the states in Egypt by 2035, based on historical data and patterns, to be used as the nodes’ states in the network. 37 factors were found to might have an impact on the use of solar energy and then were deducted to 12 factors that were chosen to be the most effective to the solar energy’s life cycle in Egypt, based on surveying experts and data analysis, some of the factors were found to be recurring in multiple stages. The presented Bayesian network could be used later for scenario and decision analysis of using solar energy in Egypt, as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed.

Keywords: ARIMA, auto correlation, Bayesian network, forecasting models, life cycle, partial correlation, renewable energy, SARIMA, solar energy.

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Authors: Haibo Hu, Dan Yang, Chunxiao Ye, Chunlei Fu, Ren Li

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High quality requirements analysis is one of the most crucial activities to ensure the success of a software project, so that requirements verification for software system becomes more and more important in Requirements Engineering (RE) and it is one of the most helpful strategies for improving the quality of software system. Related works show that requirement elicitation and analysis can be facilitated by ontological approaches and semantic web technologies. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid method which aims to verify requirements with structural and formal semantics to detect interactions. The proposed method is twofold: one is for modeling requirements with the semantic web language OWL, to construct a semantic context; the other is a set of interaction detection rules which are derived from scenario-based analysis and represented with semantic web rule language (SWRL). SWRL based rules are working with rule engines like Jess to reason in semantic context for requirements thus to detect interactions. The benefits of the proposed method lie in three aspects: the method (i) provides systematic steps for modeling requirements with an ontological approach, (ii) offers synergy of requirements elicitation and domain engineering for knowledge sharing, and (3)the proposed rules can systematically assist in requirements interaction detection.

Keywords: Requirements Engineering, Semantic Web, OWL, Requirements Interaction Detection, SWRL.

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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The objective of this work is to evaluate the results of solar radiation projections between 2006 and 2013 for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The projections are provided by the General Circulation Models (MCGs) belonging to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5). In all, the results of the simulation of six models are evaluated, compared to monthly data, measured by a network of thirteen meteorological stations of the National Meteorological Institute (INMET). The performance of the models is evaluated by the Nash coefficient and the Bias. The results are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatialization maps. The ACCESS1-0 RCP 4.5 model presented the best results for the solar radiation simulations, for the most optimistic scenario, in much of the state. The efficiency coefficients (CEF) were between 0.95 and 0.98. In the most pessimistic scenario, HADGen2-AO RCP 8.5 had the best accuracy among the analyzed models, presenting coefficients of efficiency between 0.94 and 0.98. From this validation, solar radiation projection maps were elaborated, indicating a seasonal increase of this climatic variable in some regions of the Brazilian territory, mainly in the spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, validation.

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Authors: Su Myat Marlar Soe, May Paing Paing Zaw

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It has been defined that the “network is the system". This implies providing levels of service, reliability, predictability and availability that are commensurate with or better than those that individual computers provide today. To provide this requires integrated network management for interconnected networks of heterogeneous devices covering both the local campus. In this paper we are addressing a framework to effectively deal with this issue. It consists of components and interactions between them which are required to perform the service fault management. A real-world scenario is used to derive the requirements which have been applied to the component identification. An analysis of existing frameworks and approaches with respect to their applicability to the framework is also carried out.

Keywords: To diagnose the possible network faults by using thepredetermined rules.

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Authors: Ayodeji Adesina, Derek Molloy

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Traditional higher-education classrooms allow lecturers to observe students- behaviours and responses to a particular pedagogy during learning in a way that can influence changes to the pedagogical approach. Within current e-learning systems it is difficult to perform continuous analysis of the cohort-s behavioural tendency, making real-time pedagogical decisions difficult. This paper presents a Virtual Learning Process Environment (VLPE) based on the Business Process Management (BPM) conceptual framework. Within the VLPE, course designers can model various education pedagogies in the form of learning process workflows using an intuitive flow diagram interface. These diagrams are used to visually track the learning progresses of a cohort of students. This helps assess the effectiveness of the chosen pedagogy, providing the information required to improve course design. A case scenario of a cohort of students is presented and quantitative statistical analysis of their learning process performance is gathered and displayed in realtime using dashboards.

Keywords: Business process management, cohort analytics, learning processes, virtual learning environment.

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Authors: Nunziata Ivana Guarneri, Arcangelo Bruna, Giuseppe Spampinato, Antonio Buemi

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In the last decade, automotive companies have invested a lot in terms of innovation about many aspects regarding the automatic driver assistance systems. One innovation regards the usage of a smart camera placed on the car’s side mirror for monitoring the back and lateral road situation. A common road scenario is the overtaking of the preceding car and, in this case, a brief distraction or a loss of concentration can lead the driver to undertake this action, even if there is an already overtaking vehicle, leading to serious accidents. A valid support for a secure drive can be a smart camera system, which is able to automatically analyze the road scenario and consequentially to warn the driver when another vehicle is overtaking. This paper describes a method for monitoring the side view of a vehicle by using camera optical flow motion vectors. The proposed solution detects the presence of incoming vehicles, assesses their distance from the host car, and warns the driver through different levels of alert according to the estimated distance. Due to the low complexity and computational cost, the proposed system ensures real time performances.

Keywords: Camera calibration, ego motion, kalman filters, object tracking, real time systems.

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Authors: Ismail Abubakar, Hamid Mehrabi, Reg Morton

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Currently, extensive signal analysis is performed in order to evaluate structural health of turbomachinery blades. This approach is affected by constraints of time and the availability of qualified personnel. Thus, new approaches to blade dynamics identification that provide faster and more accurate results are sought after. Generally, modal analysis is employed in acquiring dynamic properties of a vibrating turbomachinery blade and is widely adopted in condition monitoring of blades. The analysis provides useful information on the different modes of vibration and natural frequencies by exploring different shapes that can be taken up during vibration since all mode shapes have their corresponding natural frequencies. Experimental modal testing and finite element analysis are the traditional methods used to evaluate mode shapes with limited application to real live scenario to facilitate a robust condition monitoring scheme. For a real time mode shape evaluation, rapid evaluation and low computational cost is required and traditional techniques are unsuitable. In this study, artificial neural network is developed to evaluate the mode shape of a lab scale rotating blade assembly by using result from finite element modal analysis as training data. The network performance evaluation shows that artificial neural network (ANN) is capable of mapping the correlation between natural frequencies and mode shapes. This is achieved without the need of extensive signal analysis. The approach offers advantage from the perspective that the network is able to classify mode shapes and can be employed in real time including simplicity in implementation and accuracy of the prediction. The work paves the way for further development of robust condition monitoring system that incorporates real time mode shape evaluation.

Keywords: Modal analysis, artificial neural network, mode shape, natural frequencies, pattern recognition.

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Authors: Gulam Mohiuddin, Jan-Peter Mund

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This study assessed the correlation between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) in Phnom Penh City (Cambodia) from 2016 to 2020. Understanding the LST and NDVI can be helpful to understand the Urban Heat Island (UHI) scenario, and it can contribute to planning urban greening and combating the effects of UHI. The study used Landsat-8 images as the data for analysis. They have 100 m spatial resolution (per pixel) in the thermal band. The current study used an approach for the statistical analysis that considers every pixel from the study area instead of taking few sample points or analyzing descriptive statistics. Also, this study is examining the correlation between NDVI and LST with a spatially explicit approach. The study found a strong negative correlation between NDVI and LST (coefficient range -0.56 to -0.59), and this relationship is linear. This study showed a way to avoid the probable error from the sample-based approach in examining two spatial variables. The method is reproducible for a similar type of analysis on the correlation between spatial phenomena. The findings of this study will be used further to understand the causation behind LST change in that area triangulating LST, NDVI and land-use changes.

Keywords: Land Surface Temperature, NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, remote sensing, methodological development.

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Authors: Su-Yan Tang, Wei Zhang, Shan Mei, Yi-Fan Zhu

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Network-Centric Air Defense Missile Systems (NCADMS) represents the superior development of the air defense missile systems and has been regarded as one of the major research issues in military domain at present. Due to lack of knowledge and experience on NCADMS, modeling and simulation becomes an effective approach to perform operational analysis, compared with those equation based ones. However, the complex dynamic interactions among entities and flexible architectures of NCADMS put forward new requirements and challenges to the simulation framework and models. ABS (Agent-Based Simulations) explicitly addresses modeling behaviors of heterogeneous individuals. Agents have capability to sense and understand things, make decisions, and act on the environment. They can also cooperate with others dynamically to perform the tasks assigned to them. ABS proves an effective approach to explore the new operational characteristics emerging in NCADMS. In this paper, based on the analysis of network-centric architecture and new cooperative engagement strategies for NCADMS, an agent-based simulation framework by expanding the simulation framework in the so-called System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) was designed. The simulation framework specifies components, relationships and interactions between them, the structure and behavior rules of an agent in NCADMS. Based on scenario simulations, information and decision superiority and operational advantages in NCADMS were analyzed; meanwhile some suggestions were provided for its future development.

Keywords: air defense missile systems, network-centric, agent-based simulation, simulation framework, information superiority, decision superiority, operational advantages

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Authors: Svetlana Cojocaru, Mircea Petic, Inga Titchiev

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Humanity faces more and more often with different social disasters, which in turn can generate new accidents and catastrophes. To mitigate their consequences, it is important to obtain early possible signals about the events which are or can occur and to prepare the corresponding scenarios that could be applied. Our research is focused on solving two problems in this domain: identifying signals related that an accident occurred or may occur and mitigation of some consequences of disasters. To solve the first problem, methods of selecting and processing texts from global network Internet are developed. Information in Romanian is of special interest for us. In order to obtain the mentioned tools, we should follow several steps, divided into preparatory stage and processing stage. Throughout the first stage, we manually collected over 724 news articles and classified them into 10 categories of social disasters. It constitutes more than 150 thousand words. Using this information, a controlled vocabulary of more than 300 keywords was elaborated, that will help in the process of classification and identification of the texts related to the field of social disasters. To solve the second problem, the formalism of Petri net has been used. We deal with the problem of inhabitants’ evacuation in useful time. The analysis methods such as reachability or coverability tree and invariants technique to determine dynamic properties of the modeled systems will be used. To perform a case study of properties of extended evacuation system by adding time, the analysis modules of PIPE such as Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) Analysis, Simulation, State Space Analysis, and Invariant Analysis have been used. These modules helped us to obtain the average number of persons situated in the rooms and the other quantitative properties and characteristics related to its dynamics.

Keywords: Lexicon of disasters, modelling, Petri nets, text annotation, social disasters.

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Authors: V. Holeva, V. Aliki Nikopoulou, P. Kechayas, M. Dialechti Kerasidou, M. Papadopoulou, G. A. Papakostas, V. G. Kaburlasos, A. Evangeliou

Abstract:

Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) has been proven an effective tool to address anger and anxiety issues in children and adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD). Robot-enhanced therapy has been used in psychosocial and educational interventions for children with ASD with promising results. Whenever CBT-based techniques were incorporated in robot-based interventions, they were mainly performed in group sessions. Objectives: The study’s main objective was the implementation and evaluation of the effectiveness of a relaxation training intervention for children with ASD, delivered by the social robot NAO. Methods: 20 children (aged 7–12 years) were randomly assigned to 16 sessions of relaxation training implemented twice a week. Two groups were formed: the NAO group (children participated in individual sessions with the support of NAO) and the control group (children participated in individual sessions with the support of the therapist only). Participants received three different relaxation scenarios of increasing difficulty (a breathing scenario, a progressive muscle relaxation scenario and a body scan medication scenario), as well as related homework sheets for practicing. Pre- and post-intervention assessments were conducted using the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire for parents (SDQ-P). Participants were also asked to complete an open-ended questionnaire to evaluate the effectiveness of the training. Parents’ satisfaction was evaluated via a questionnaire and children satisfaction was assessed by a thermometer scale. Results: The study supports the use of relaxation training with the NAO robot as instructor for children with ASD. Parents of enrolled children reported high levels of satisfaction and provided positive ratings of the training acceptability. Children in the NAO group presented greater motivation to complete homework and adopt the learned techniques at home. Conclusions: Relaxation training could be effectively integrated in robot-assisted protocols to help children with ASD regulate emotions and develop self-control.

Keywords: Autism spectrum disorders, CBT, children relaxation training, robot-assisted therapy.

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Authors: Milan Rippel, Pert Teplý

Abstract:

Operational risk has become one of the most discussed topics in the financial industry in the recent years. The reasons for this attention can be attributed to higher investments in information systems and technology, the increasing wave of mergers and acquisitions and emergence of new financial instruments. In addition, the New Basel Capital Accord (known as Basel II) demands a capital requirement for operational risk and further motivates financial institutions to more precisely measure and manage this type of risk. The aim of this paper is to shed light on main characteristics of operational risk management and common applied methods: scenario analysis, key risk indicators, risk control self assessment and loss distribution approach.

Keywords: Operational risk, economic capital, key risk indicators, loss distribution approach.

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Authors: Neeraj Nehra, R. B. Patel, V. K. Bhat

Abstract:

Use of the Internet and the World-Wide-Web (WWW) has become widespread in recent years and mobile agent technology has proliferated at an equally rapid rate. In this scenario load balancing becomes important for P2P systems. Beside P2P systems can be highly heterogeneous, i.e., they may consists of peers that range from old desktops to powerful servers connected to internet through high-bandwidth lines. There are various loads balancing policies came into picture. Primitive one is Message Passing Interface (MPI). Its wide availability and portability make it an attractive choice; however the communication requirements are sometimes inefficient when implementing the primitives provided by MPI. In this scenario we use the concept of mobile agent because Mobile agent (MA) based approach have the merits of high flexibility, efficiency, low network traffic, less communication latency as well as highly asynchronous. In this study we present decentralized load balancing scheme using mobile agent technology in which when a node is overloaded, task migrates to less utilized nodes so as to share the workload. However, the decision of which nodes receive migrating task is made in real-time by defining certain load balancing policies. These policies are executed on PMADE (A Platform for Mobile Agent Distribution and Execution) in decentralized manner using JuxtaNet and various load balancing metrics are discussed.

Keywords: Mobile Agents, Agent host, Agent Submitter, PMADE.

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Authors: A. Elmikaty, Z. Thanawarothon, L. Mezeix

Abstract:

This paper presents a finite element model to simulate the teeth failure of non-circular composite chainring. Model consists of the chainring and a part of the chain. To reduce the size of the model, only the first 11 rollers are simulated. In order to validate the model, it is firstly applied to a circular aluminum chainring and evolution of the stress in the teeth is compared with the literature. Then, effect of the non-circular shape is studied through three different loading positions. Strength of non-circular composite chainring and failure scenario is investigated. Moreover, two composite lay-ups are proposed to observe the influence of the stacking. Results show that composite material can be used but the lay-up has a large influence on the strength. Finally, loading position does not have influence on the first composite failure that always occurs in the first tooth.

Keywords: CFRP, composite failure, FEA, non-circular chainring.

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Authors: Amit Bhattacharyya

Abstract:

The economic scenario of any region does not show the real picture for the measurement of overall development. Therefore, economic development must be accompanied by social development to be able to make an assessment to measure the level of development. The spatial variation with respect to social development has been discussed taking into account the quality of functioning of a social system in a specific area. In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the spatial distribution of social infrastructural facilities and analyze the magnitude of regional disparities at inter- block level in Barddhman district. It starts with the detailed account of the selection process of social infrastructure indicators and describes the methodology employed in the empirical analysis. Analyzing the block level data, this paper tries to identify the disparity among the blocks in the levels of social development. The results have been subsequently explained using both statistical analysis and geo spatial technique. The paper reveals that the social development is not going on at the same rate in every part of the district. Health facilities and educational facilities are concentrated at some selected point. So overall development activities come to be concentrated in a few centres and the disparity is seen over the blocks.

Keywords: Disparity, inter-block, social development, spatial variation.

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Authors: Nesli Aydin

Abstract:

Waste management decision making in developing countries has moved towards being more pragmatic, transparent, sustainable and comprehensive. Turkey is required to make its waste related legislation compatible with European Legislation as it is a candidate country of the European Union. Improper Turkish practices such as open burning and open dumping practices must be abandoned urgently, and robust waste management systems have to be structured. The determination of an optimum waste management system in any region requires a comprehensive analysis in which many criteria are taken into account by stakeholders. In conducting this sort of analysis, there are two main criteria which are evaluated by waste management analysts; economic viability and environmentally friendliness. From an analytical point of view, a central characteristic of sustainable development is an economic-ecological integration. It is predicted that building a robust waste management system will need significant effort and cooperation between the stakeholders in developing countries such as Turkey. In this regard, this study aims to provide data regarding the cost and environmental burdens of waste treatment technologies such as an incinerator, an autoclave (with different capacities), a hydroclave and a microwave coupled with updated information on calculation methods, and a framework for comparing any proposed scenario performances on a cost and environmental basis.

Keywords: Decision making, economic viability, environmentally friendliness, stakeholder, waste management systems.

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